RE: Mike OGH article. In the above graph, the Conservative LEAVE voters are as a minimum 55%. These also have a higher motivation to vote and the fact that more LEAVE voters are over 55 years old, their turn out figures will push this to circa 60% LEAVE and 40% REMAIN. This is after 7 weeks of Cameron & Osborne working hard on just this segment of voters! 7 weeks of effort and its 60/40 against is not good for REMAIN.
We listened to Miliband (D) on the radio earlier and Mrs J disagreed with much of what he said. This was fairly notable as she's a fairly firm remainer.
What were the big areas of disagreement for her?
The main one which we discussed (*) was his claim that the fact we were stopped ?4000? EU citizens entering the country last year shows that we have immigration controls. Mrs J said, & I think she's right, that we can only stop individual EU citizens entering under certain conditions.
Basically, he was over-egging the pudding on that point. I tended to agree with her.
There were other things as well, but I've forgotten them. Sorry.
(*) much to the little 'un's disgust. Our discussion was diverting attention away from giving him more olives, which he calls 'salties'
We listened to Miliband (D) on the radio earlier and Mrs J disagreed with much of what he said. This was fairly notable as she's a fairly firm remainer.
What were the big areas of disagreement for her?
The main one which we discussed (*) was his claim that the fact we were stopped ?4000? EU citizens entering the country last year shows that we have immigration controls. Mrs J said, & I think she's right, that we can only stop individual EU citizens entering under certain conditions. Basically, he was over-egging the pudding on that point. I tended to agree with her.....
Thanks. I am not receptive to the views of D. Miliband so wanted to see how others reacted. When asked about the effects of immigration on Labour voters he was very dismissive and said it "was for domestic politics to deal with" and not an EU matter.
PS Enjoy the little un - great at that age for family time.
We listened to Miliband (D) on the radio earlier and Mrs J disagreed with much of what he said. This was fairly notable as she's a fairly firm remainer.
What were the big areas of disagreement for her?
The main one which we discussed (*) was his claim that the fact we were stopped ?4000? EU citizens entering the country last year shows that we have immigration controls. Mrs J said, & I think she's right, that we can only stop individual EU citizens entering under certain conditions. Basically, he was over-egging the pudding on that point. I tended to agree with her.....
Thanks. I am not receptive to the views of D. Miliband so wanted to see how others reacted. When asked about the effects of immigration on Labour voters he was very dismissive and said it "was for domestic politics to deal with" and not an EU matter.
PS Enjoy the little un - great at that age for family time.
Mrs J's position could perhaps be described as the inverse of mine with one exception - she's very likely to vote remain, whereas I'm very likely to vote leave. The exception is that we agree that the UK should not be in the EZ.
Interestingly (for me at least), there was a time a couple of years ago where she briefly moved into the firm leavers camp for a few weeks - it was something to do with Germany's behaviour, I think during the EZ crisis. I think it might be the same thing Mr Brooke's referred to in the past.
I think there's a rich vein for leave to exploit with the disproportionate power Germany wields over the EU, although it should be done with care and a certain amount of tact. We need to be friends with them after any split ...
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
I know someone who eschewed traditional dating sites and marketed himself on Facebook. It was scary.
Women: aged 26-30 Degree: BA or Masters Relationship status: Single for less than six months etc.
Will Brand SLab be able to resist Ruthcon1? For those who believe not, you can still get 2/1 on SCons most seats without the SNP, though interestingly Lads have suspended betting on SLab in that market.
She won't win but I'd say that's a little bit encouraging for Ruth.
It suggests there is an outside chance she could pull SCon support to 20%+
But i don't know to what extent the toxicity of the Tory brand north of the border is priced into those figures.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel, a horror anthology (currently #7 on Amazon) in which I have a short story, is now out. E-book at the minute, but paperback should be ready in a couple of weeks.
I'm just wondering about the rate of speech development.
21 months.
As I said the other day, I was very worried about the little 'un's speech as I started speaking very late. This is a trait in my family - an uncle who became a university lecturer (*) did not speak until he was about four. It didn't seem to stunt his development at all, nor mine.
The little 'un is so vocal that I'm now wondering if I've overcompensated ...
In truth, every kid is different.
(*) He used to appear in OU programs in the late seventies / early eighties, which were repeated for many years when I was a kid. It was funny to see my uncle on TV wearing already-ridiculous flares and clothes.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel, a horror anthology (currently #7 on Amazon) in which I have a short story, is now out. E-book at the minute, but paperback should be ready in a couple of weeks.
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel, a horror anthology (currently #7 on Amazon) in which I have a short story, is now out. E-book at the minute, but paperback should be ready in a couple of weeks.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel, a horror anthology (currently #7 on Amazon) in which I have a short story, is now out. E-book at the minute, but paperback should be ready in a couple of weeks.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
The truth is that the developed world has such appalling demographics that 1-2% is probably pushing it. I'd reckon Japan is probably 0.5%, Italy and France 0.5-1%, Eastern Europe 1-1.5%, and Spain, Germany and us 1.5-2%.
But that doesn't mean we're all fu*ked. A small amount of inflation - say 2-2.5% a year - given that governments have long-term funding in place at 1.5%, would bring down government debt levels very quickly.
Thanks, Mr. 1000/Mr. Royale. For various reasons, although I've always been writing, there was a bit of a hiatus in recent years when it came to releasing stuff, but hopefully I can have anthology contributions and novels of my own fairly regularly for the next couple of years.
Edited extra bit: cheers, Mr. Jessop. I hope the variance is a reference to the genres, and not the quality
This week in the Mail we're publishing Euro MP Daniel Hannan's devastating inside account of the EU. Yesterday, he exposed how pro-EU cheerleaders are funded by Brussels. Today he reveals why Europe is utterly incapable of reform...
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
The truth is that the developed world has such appalling demographics that 1-2% is probably pushing it. I'd reckon Japan is probably 0.5%, Italy and France 0.5-1%, Eastern Europe 1-1.5%, and Spain, Germany and us 1.5-2%.
But that doesn't mean we're all fu*ked. A small amount of inflation - say 2-2.5% a year - given that governments have long-term funding in place at 1.5%, would bring down government debt levels very quickly.
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
EDIT: Also interest rates. If you're in debt to credit cards and pay day loans etc with high interest rates and nothing to show for it, then you're in trouble. If you're in debt to a mortgage provider at rock bottom interest rates in order to own a building worth more than that then within reason you're not. I'd rather owe 4x my income to a mortgage provider than 50% of my income to payday lenders and credit cards etc
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
The truth is that the developed world has such appalling demographics that 1-2% is probably pushing it. I'd reckon Japan is probably 0.5%, Italy and France 0.5-1%, Eastern Europe 1-1.5%, and Spain, Germany and us 1.5-2%.
But that doesn't mean we're all fu*ked. A small amount of inflation - say 2-2.5% a year - given that governments have long-term funding in place at 1.5%, would bring down government debt levels very quickly.
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?
MOVE over Larry there’s a new Chief Mouser in town as the Foreign Office is adopting a new cat.
David Cameron’s Downing Street moggie will have a rival as the top political feline when ‘Palmerston’ joins the government department on Wednesday.
The cat, named after former foreign secretary and Prime Minister Viscount Palmerston, will be responsible for catching mice and other pests around the building.
Looks like our inflation situation is on the way to normalising now that low oil prices are working their way out of the system. Core CPI of 1.6% and CPI at 0.5%, even the factory gate prices are heading upwards meaning there is going to be more upwards pressure on prices than there currently is. Good news for the government's fiscal programme, bad news for consumers and borrowers.
'What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?'
Quite - the BoJ owned government debt has effectively been cancelled already.
The traditional argument is that if you formally cancel it there will be a massive rise in inflation expectations - but why would that happen? Despite BoJ bond buying monetary growth in Japan has been weak. And does anyone really expect massive net sales of JGBs by the BoJ in the years ahead?
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
This week in the Mail we're publishing Euro MP Daniel Hannan's devastating inside account of the EU. Yesterday, he exposed how pro-EU cheerleaders are funded by Brussels. Today he reveals why Europe is utterly incapable of reform...
'What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?'
Quite - the BoJ owned government debt has effectively been cancelled already.
The traditional argument is that if you formally cancel it there will be a massive rise in inflation expectations - but why would that happen? Despite BoJ bond buying monetary growth in Japan has been weak. And does anyone really expect massive net sales of JGBs by the BoJ in the years ahead?
To quote a piece I wrote on this very issue: "A thought experiment: if you need not pay interest, and the likelihood of the lender demanding repayment is zero, is it really debt?"
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
2% is very optimistic indeed. Over the next 30 years I would say 1% is more likely, on average.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
A lot of shy leavers in West London as well.
Agreed. I think middle class areas like Richmond and Kew, and Hampstead and the like, will have higher Leave votes than many people think.
What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?
Then: A: The BOJ has a mega mega write off of 'assets'. Does it become technically insolvent? Don't know. B. Non Japanese government holders of JGD will demand their repayments. So a round of massive court cases. c. Japan as a nation is 'financed' by paying its public sector in IOUs. The Yen will collapse (that is the whole point). Trade war on stilts with China and other exporters (Germany?). D. Spotlight on all the countries with crap debt dynamics and demographics. Cost of debt soars in these (treasury prices collapse). E. Tumbleweed rolls through the world markets as we return to barter and hunting wild animals to eke out a survival.
I wouldn't worry. If recent media has taught us anything, it's that a dystopian hell can easily be thwarted by a teenage girl who is conflicted about which of two boys to date.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
Nah, you read too much Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Not a single time has one of his doom scenarios played out as he said it would. He is having a terrible crisis as far as punditing goes. Over 90% of Japanese government bonds are owned domestically by companies, banks and the BoJ, it puts the government in a strong position to dictate terms to bond holders. Japan has too many other problems though, their demographics, labour market and corporate sector are areas which need long term renewal. There are too many zombie companies holding on because of deflation, low interest rates and implicit government support. Sharp is still going to be the big test for corporate Japan, they presented last minute losses to Foxconn which has soured the deal and it is no longer going to be a full buy-out but a partnership. Everything in Japan is fucked, but not because they have high debt/GDP.
What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?
Then: A: The BOJ has a mega mega write off of 'assets'. Does it become technically insolvent? Don't know. B. Non Japanese government holders of JGD will demand their repayments. So a round of massive court cases. c. Japan as a nation is 'financed' by paying its public sector in IOUs. The Yen will collapse (that is the whole point). Trade war on stilts with China and other exporters (Germany?). D. Spotlight on all the countries with crap debt dynamics and demographics. Cost of debt soars in these (treasury prices collapse). E. Tumbleweed rolls through the world markets as we return to barter and hunting wild animals to eek out a survival.
You are misunderstanding. The suggestion is only that the BoJ-owned JGBs will be cancelled (or more likely turned into some kind of perpetual bond in which case they stay on the BoJ balance sheet as an asset), not those owned by private investors.
Currently, the government pays interest on the BoJ holdings which then gets recycled back to the government as profit remittances by the BoJ - so as I mentioned the debt has effectively been cancelled already.
That's two articles in a row for the Mail where Daniel Hannan has started by asserting as an unarguable fact something that is very dubious indeed. This week it's the suggestion that Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are comparable to Britain "because they are neither ex-communist nor micro-states". Quite apart from the dubious criteria for what's comparable, Iceland arguably is a microstate - it has a population of just over 300,000.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
The 4 or more years leading into that period were a period of almost unprecedented house price inflation. A house bought in 1986 had, I recall, doubled in price by mid 1989. The graph you produced do not show us at a peak, therefore we are unlikely to see any dramatic drop further. However within these figures is the London effect that has boosted the national average holding us up at a higher level than the rest of the country has experienced.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
2% is very optimistic indeed. Over the next 30 years I would say 1% is more likely, on average.
On actual growth I would say 1-1.3% is probably what we're looking at, but I was talking specifically about growth potential or economic capacity.
Thanks to all who have educated a bit on Japan. If the Japanese govt essentially cancels its bond interest does that not mean a massive write off of assets for all those who hold JGDs? Mrs Watanabe won't be too chuffed?
Mr. Meeks, Iceland's small, but a micro-state is more like Monaco or Liechtenstein.
If that's the weakest link in Hannan's argument, it must be pretty sound.
Mr. Max, have you heard the rumours of a new Xbox console? I do wonder, if it were markedly more powerful than the PS4, if people would be thrilled or pissed. Might depend on their wallet. If Sony released the PS5 this or next year, I'd be deeply irked.
'What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?'
Quite - the BoJ owned government debt has effectively been cancelled already.
The traditional argument is that if you formally cancel it there will be a massive rise in inflation expectations - but why would that happen? Despite BoJ bond buying monetary growth in Japan has been weak. And does anyone really expect massive net sales of JGBs by the BoJ in the years ahead?
To quote a piece I wrote on this very issue: "A thought experiment: if you need not pay interest, and the likelihood of the lender demanding repayment is zero, is it really debt?"
Or in the case of central bank owned "debt" when the financing costs are effectively nil (given that interest from the Bank's holdings are given back to the government" is that really debt?
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
Thanks to all who have educated a bit on Japan. If the Japanese govt essentially cancels its bond interest does that not mean a massive write off of assets for all those who hold JGDs? Mrs Watanabe won't be too chuffed?
Japan's opposition is less effective than labour...
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
The 4 or more years leading into that period were a period of almost unprecedented house price inflation. A house bought in 1986 had, I recall, doubled in price by mid 1989. The graph you produced do not show us at a peak, therefore we are unlikely to see any dramatic drop further. However within these figures is the London effect that has boosted the national average holding us up at a higher level than the rest of the country has experienced.
Does anyone have charts for the price of viable building land (say with planning permission) over the periods? If not, farmland might be a flawed analogue.
I'd expect the price of land to mirror that of housing, but that might be wrong. If it does mirror it, is there any lag between the two?
@Morris_Dancer There's no set definition of microstate but population size is often used and Iceland is teeny-weeny on that basis. And that's leaving aside the idea that two countries are comparable based on negative criteria - it brings to mind eharmony's advert of the dating site that matches a man with a camel.
It's never good starting an article with something very dubious. Dan Hannan has done that in two successive articles for the Mail - last week was the assertion that the only person who would lose their job if we left the EU was him.
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
Nah, you read too much Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Not a single time has one of his doom scenarios played out as he said it would. He is having a terrible crisis as far as punditing goes. Over 90% of Japanese government bonds are owned domestically by companies, banks and the BoJ, it puts the government in a strong position to dictate terms to bond holders. Japan has too many other problems though, their demographics, labour market and corporate sector are areas which need long term renewal. There are too many zombie companies holding on because of deflation, low interest rates and implicit government support. Sharp is still going to be the big test for corporate Japan, they presented last minute losses to Foxconn which has soured the deal and it is no longer going to be a full buy-out but a partnership. Everything in Japan is fucked, but not because they have high debt/GDP.
Japan is not in a good place, but that's been the case for 20 years. However, is there any subjec to which Evans-Pritchard has been proved correct?
This week in the Mail we're publishing Euro MP Daniel Hannan's devastating inside account of the EU. Yesterday, he exposed how pro-EU cheerleaders are funded by Brussels. Today he reveals why Europe is utterly incapable of reform...
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
Indeed though again that is part of the story. Those most at risk are those who put in tiny deposits and took out their loan recently and haven't made any overpayments. I put in a 30% deposit when I bought the house nearly 6 years ago and have been making overpayments irregularly. If the value of my house fell 40% overnight then it would still be worth considerably more than my mortgage ... but I still have a higher debt level than the averages quoted. I'm quite content with that.
Thanks to all who have educated a bit on Japan. If the Japanese govt essentially cancels its bond interest does that not mean a massive write off of assets for all those who hold JGDs? Mrs Watanabe won't be too chuffed?
Well they have already cancelled financing costs for the BoJ holidngs (much like we have for BoE gilt holdings), that accounts for around 40% of their interest payments. The problem Japan has is that the government likes to double count their interest income from JGBs, on the one hand they talk of zero interest on BoJ holdings and on the other they talk about a financial dividend being paid to them for other spending. It is one of those hazard warnings that central bankers gave out when QE was in vogue, what will the state do with the money raised from interest, will it repay the debt, will it cancel out interest payments or will it just spend it. In Japan the latter seems to be the solution of the day.
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Corbyn is simply being repaid in the currency he himself has dealt in. He clearly has "questions to answer"......
I wouldn't worry. If recent media has taught us anything, it's that a dystopian hell can easily be thwarted by a teenage girl who is conflicted about which of two boys to date.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
Indeed though again that is part of the story. Those most at risk are those who put in tiny deposits and took out their loan recently and haven't made any overpayments. I put in a 30% deposit when I bought the house nearly 6 years ago and have been making overpayments irregularly. If the value of my house fell 40% overnight then it would still be worth considerably more than my mortgage ... but I still have a higher debt level than the averages quoted. I'm quite content with that.
Yup, I did just the same as you. I have re-mortgaged, paid in my bonus, decreased the LTV and now pay just under 2% interest with a very long fixed rate period. If house prices fall, I'm well prepared now if only the government would learn from the financial prudence of its members!
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
Nah, you read too much Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Not a single time has one of his doom scenarios played out as he said it would. He is having a terrible crisis as far as punditing goes. Over 90% of Japanese government bonds are owned domestically by companies, banks and the BoJ, it puts the government in a strong position to dictate terms to bond holders. Japan has too many other problems though, their demographics, labour market and corporate sector are areas which need long term renewal. There are too many zombie companies holding on because of deflation, low interest rates and implicit government support. Sharp is still going to be the big test for corporate Japan, they presented last minute losses to Foxconn which has soured the deal and it is no longer going to be a full buy-out but a partnership. Everything in Japan is fucked, but not because they have high debt/GDP.
Japan is not in a good place, but that's been the case for 20 years. However, is there any subjec to which Evans-Pritchard has been proved correct?
Hard to say, as he changes his views on every topic so rapidly, often in the space of the same article.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
From talking to friends, there's a great deal of truth in your last paragraph.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
2% is very optimistic indeed. Over the next 30 years I would say 1% is more likely, on average.
It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Is this actually important or relevant in isolation?
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
This is a point which has been discussed many times, and I think what you say is true - to a point.
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
Indeed though again that is part of the story. Those most at risk are those who put in tiny deposits and took out their loan recently and haven't made any overpayments. I put in a 30% deposit when I bought the house nearly 6 years ago and have been making overpayments irregularly. If the value of my house fell 40% overnight then it would still be worth considerably more than my mortgage ... but I still have a higher debt level than the averages quoted. I'm quite content with that.
Yup, I did just the same as you. I have re-mortgaged, paid in my bonus, decreased the LTV and now pay just under 2% interest with a very long fixed rate period. If house prices fall, I'm well prepared now if only the government would learn from the financial prudence of its members!
Very nice interest rate that. I haven't remortgaged as my current rate is base+1.99% (so 2.49%) and has been for nearly four years now. In 2010 I thought base was unlikely to rise soon so took a punt on a 2 year fixed with an eye on that low tracker afterwards, in 2012 when my fixed period finished was content to stay with that and see nothing to make me change my mind any time soon.
Even if base does start rising it will have to rise much higher than I'd expect to make me sweat.
But i don't know to what extent the toxicity of the Tory brand north of the border is priced into those figures.
Conservative leaflets mention the word Conservative at most once if at all and "Ruth Davidson" about 500 times.
Leaflets in Glasgow are asking people to vote for Ruth Davidson.
Clearly they learned from the SNP or should that be the "Alex Salmond for first minister" party?
I thought that was a wank thing to do at the time and I think this is a wank thing to do now. As far as I remember though, SNP election literature in 2007 actually mentioned the SNP though.
Hague's intervention this morning about MPs' finances might be well intentioned. It might even be correct. But it is also utterly inept, and fails to capture the country's mood.
Japan is about to get a dose of hyperinflation. There is no market for JGD other than the BOJ. Their only hope of avoiding hard default is to rape the Yen.
Nah, you read too much Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Not a single time has one of his doom scenarios played out as he said it would. He is having a terrible crisis as far as punditing goes. Over 90% of Japanese government bonds are owned domestically by companies, banks and the BoJ, it puts the government in a strong position to dictate terms to bond holders. Japan has too many other problems though, their demographics, labour market and corporate sector are areas which need long term renewal. There are too many zombie companies holding on because of deflation, low interest rates and implicit government support. Sharp is still going to be the big test for corporate Japan, they presented last minute losses to Foxconn which has soured the deal and it is no longer going to be a full buy-out but a partnership. Everything in Japan is fucked, but not because they have high debt/GDP.
Japan is not in a good place, but that's been the case for 20 years. However, is there any subjec to which Evans-Pritchard has been proved correct?
Not that I can think of. He get's all riled up about the German constitutional court going against the EU from time to time. He bleats about the end of the Euro from time to time. Neither have come to pass. That's not to say he won't be right at some point, but it will be a case of him being the stopped clock.
Corbyn went to a good school and came out with two Es. Is any explanation needed beyond 'he's just not very bright'?
A pal of mine went to very good school and came out without a single qualification, he's a millionaire now.
Most people without qualifications are not millionaires, though.
Most people aren't millionaires. Qualifications are overrated, spend some time with recent graduates, ones that didn't go to a uni in the top 30 or so in the country.
It is one of those hazard warnings that central bankers gave out when QE was in vogue, what will the state do with the money raised from interest, will it repay the debt, will it cancel out interest payments or will it just spend it. In Japan the latter seems to be the solution of the day.
Does this mean in effect rather than magicking money out of thin air and buying stuff which is frowned upon, they magic money out of thin air, use that to buy government bonds, and then use the magic interest those bonds pay to buy stuff ? If so it sounds rather like money laundering
I've found that being for sovereignty has simplified any discussion re Leave. The rest of the arguments or symptoms flow from that.
Bar doing a Jeremy Clarkson and wanting full integration re the same army, money and plugs - it'd be interesting to see which specific arguments are most important to Remainders.
Being against XYZ isn't an aspirational position in my view.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
I'm beginning to relax about the Brexit vote. The EU is going to break within the next few years:
It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.
And you have to consider the growth of other regions as well. If you do that, projections like those I made show a further steady decline in the Eurozone's share of world GDP over the next 10-15 years, regardless of the high base.
And more striking than that is what happens to the Eurozone's share of incremental GDP growth. While China and India between them may account for 35-40% of the rise in world GDP to 2025, the Eurozone's share will be less than 10%.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
From talking to friends, there's a great deal of truth in your last paragraph.
So democratic of them.
In the same way as taxes are something other people should pay more of, it seems for a lot of Brits democracy is something you shouldn't have more of unless it comes up with the right(-on) answers. Can't have those fearful oiks in the lower order having a say over how their country operates they might do all sorts of dreadful things.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
The issue is that the EZ has low growth potential. 1.5-2% GDP growth is probably close to the long term trend for the EZ, even with countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain starting from a low base. The issue is that the spending rules being enforced on them don't allow for long term investments in the economy. The mandatory government spending required for countries in southern Europe to continue functioning is relatively high which leaves little to no room for capital spending. They will need to continue liberalising and slashing their welfare states in order to make room for capital spending with the current borrowing rules put in place by the ECB/EC. In countries like France, Italy and Greece this seems like a very unlikely outcome, look at how France has reacted to minor changes in the pension age and minor changes to the welfare state in the past.
2% is very optimistic indeed. Over the next 30 years I would say 1% is more likely, on average.
It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.
No it isn't. It's awful. The US added $650bn to their GDP last year at current prices. The EMU is a sclerotic zone of doom.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
From talking to friends, there's a great deal of truth in your last paragraph.
Yes, such Remainers like to think they're the enlightened, intelligent and objective ones but, as usual, their views are informed as much by what is emotionally visceral as for Leavers.
As an aside, the Establishment has been pro-EU for a very long time for slightly different reasons. It sounds silly, given how far in the past it now is, but we underestimate how much things like the Fall of Singapore in 1942 and the Suez Crisis in 1956 totally shook Britain's ability to govern itself as an independent nation to the core.
The economic sluggishness of the 60s and 70s only added to that.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
The difficulty is not producing arguments but producing arguments that have purchase with the other side.
My friend is actually quite anti the EU (because of its treatment of Greece, something which I brought up - the difficulty is that that doesn't clearly link to a reason why the UK should leave).
Hague's intervention this morning about MPs' finances might be well intentioned. It might even be correct. But it is also utterly inept, and fails to capture the country's mood.
Only relevant if he was trying to capture the country's mood rather than trying to shape it.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
What a very good post, puts me in mind of that tweet by Thornberry of the white van and Union Jack. The establishment loathe the WWC.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
From talking to friends, there's a great deal of truth in your last paragraph.
So democratic of them.
In the same way as taxes are something other people should pay more of, it seems for a lot of Brits democracy is something you shouldn't have more of unless it comes up with the right(-on) answers. Can't have those fearful oiks in the lower order having a say over how their country operates they might do all sorts of dreadful things.
I'm not sure that adequately reflects their views or their reasoning ...
'It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.'
Yes but you have to consider the growth of other regions as well. If you do that, then these kinds of projections show the Eurozone's share of world GDP declining steadily over the next 10-15 years.
Even more striking is what happens to the Eurozone share of incremental world GDP growth. So while China and India may account for 35-40% of the rise in the level of world GDP over the next decade, the Eurozone's share will be less than 10%.
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
Yes. The prospect of the a post Brexit UK being led by the headbangers of the Tory right running riot is quite a good motivator for Remainers.
Hague's intervention this morning about MPs' finances might be well intentioned. It might even be correct. But it is also utterly inept, and fails to capture the country's mood.
Only relevant if he was trying to capture the country's mood rather than trying to shape it.
The headline on the BBC news website will shape the country's mood, but negatively.
'It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.'
Yes but you have to consider the growth of other regions as well. If you do that, then these kinds of projections show the Eurozone's share of world GDP declining steadily over the next 10-15 years.
Even more striking is what happens to the Eurozone share of incremental world GDP growth. So while China and India may account for 35-40% of the rise in the level of world GDP over the next decade, the Eurozone's share will be less than 10%.
What is stopping us trading with those countries already?
Just as there are shy Tories and don't we just know it, there are likely to be shy Tory Leavers. To some extent I'm one myself ...... I don't tell all my friends that I'm a pretty firm leaver, there's not much point in having arguments one can't win.
I suspect if you live somewhere like Putney (or Hampstead!), then there are likely a lot of shy Leavers.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
I'm having lunch with the board of my consultancy firm in 3 weeks time. The owners are both firm Remainers, and live in Barnes. They even gave a short speech at a recent event where they alluded to remembering the first referendum and wondered if history would repeat itself this time with a similar decision - 'nod nod' to the staff.
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I am somewhat of a shy Remainer in that I don't like to get into arguments about it.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I could produce arguments for Remain with ease - I generally don't want to, as they have a massive advantage of Government support and being the status quo, but it's not difficult.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
What a very good post, puts me in mind of that tweet by Thornberry of the white van and Union Jack. The establishment loathe the WWC.
There was no loathing expressed in Thornberry's tweet. Only paranoia in the reaction.
Just looking at historical data, it's interesting to note that our GDP in 1975 was $241bn compared to France's $360bn, today the figures are $2.99tn for us vs $2.83tn for France. The economic picture has changed a lot since the last referendum, we have less reason to hold on to the security blanket than we did then.
Also, the new World Bank data website is complete shit.
Hague's intervention this morning about MPs' finances might be well intentioned. It might even be correct. But it is also utterly inept, and fails to capture the country's mood.
Only relevant if he was trying to capture the country's mood rather than trying to shape it.
The headline on the BBC news website will shape the country's mood, but negatively.
"Hague: Don't judge PMs on their finances"
Is he wrong?
Are you saying politicians shouldn't say an unpopular truth? Why don't we just replace all politicians with Churchill dogs to nod along with whatever media meme we have today?
'It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.'
Yes but you have to consider the growth of other regions as well. If you do that, then these kinds of projections show the Eurozone's share of world GDP declining steadily over the next 10-15 years.
Even more striking is what happens to the Eurozone share of incremental world GDP growth. So while China and India may account for 35-40% of the rise in the level of world GDP over the next decade, the Eurozone's share will be less than 10%.
What is stopping us trading with those countries already?
The fact the EU forbids us from concluding independent trade deals with them, unlike EEA members which get single market access and are free to conclude their own trade deals.
Just looking at historical data, it's interesting to note that our GDP in 1975 was $241bn compared to France's $360bn, today the figures are $2.99tn for us vs $2.83tn for France. The economic picture has changed a lot since the last referendum, we have less reason to hold on to the security blanket than we did then.
Comments
Basically, he was over-egging the pudding on that point. I tended to agree with her.
There were other things as well, but I've forgotten them. Sorry.
(*) much to the little 'un's disgust. Our discussion was diverting attention away from giving him more olives, which he calls 'salties'
PS Enjoy the little un - great at that age for family time.
I'm just wondering about the rate of speech development.
Interestingly (for me at least), there was a time a couple of years ago where she briefly moved into the firm leavers camp for a few weeks - it was something to do with Germany's behaviour, I think during the EZ crisis. I think it might be the same thing Mr Brooke's referred to in the past.
I think there's a rich vein for leave to exploit with the disproportionate power Germany wields over the EU, although it should be done with care and a certain amount of tact. We need to be friends with them after any split ...
It suggests there is an outside chance she could pull SCon support to 20%+
But i don't know to what extent the toxicity of the Tory brand north of the border is priced into those figures.
Shameless self-promotionThe Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel, a horror anthology (currently #7 on Amazon) in which I have a short story, is now out. E-book at the minute, but paperback should be ready in a couple of weeks.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE/
As I said the other day, I was very worried about the little 'un's speech as I started speaking very late. This is a trait in my family - an uncle who became a university lecturer (*) did not speak until he was about four. It didn't seem to stunt his development at all, nor mine.
The little 'un is so vocal that I'm now wondering if I've overcompensated ...
In truth, every kid is different.
(*) He used to appear in OU programs in the late seventies / early eighties, which were repeated for many years when I was a kid. It was funny to see my uncle on TV wearing already-ridiculous flares and clothes.
If you're in Clacton, there might be shy Remainers.
He was quite simply the most persasive speaker for REMAIN that I've heard by an enormous distance. If anyone missed it listen again.
But that doesn't mean we're all fu*ked. A small amount of inflation - say 2-2.5% a year - given that governments have long-term funding in place at 1.5%, would bring down government debt levels very quickly.
Interesting stuff.
Thanks, Mr. 1000/Mr. Royale. For various reasons, although I've always been writing, there was a bit of a hiatus in recent years when it came to releasing stuff, but hopefully I can have anthology contributions and novels of my own fairly regularly for the next couple of years.
Edited extra bit: cheers, Mr. Jessop. I hope the variance is a reference to the genres, and not the quality
I'm not sure what I'll say if Brexit comes up. Probably try and smile and change the subject, but a part of me is thinking of politely making the case for EEA-EFTA.
I recall a chart going around that said that Brits had more net wealth than the rest of Europe which was put down to the fact that we own our own homes far more than the rest of Europe.
My mortgage runs at about 200% of my income, but then my house is worth about 400% of my income so I'm quite content with that.
The key question is not debt in isolation but debt:asset ratio.
EDIT: Also interest rates. If you're in debt to credit cards and pay day loans etc with high interest rates and nothing to show for it, then you're in trouble. If you're in debt to a mortgage provider at rock bottom interest rates in order to own a building worth more than that then within reason you're not. I'd rather owe 4x my income to a mortgage provider than 50% of my income to payday lenders and credit cards etc
'What happens if the BoJ - which owns JGBs worth 70% of Japanese GDP - says it will not demand repayment of debts?'
Quite - the BoJ owned government debt has effectively been cancelled already.
The traditional argument is that if you formally cancel it there will be a massive rise in inflation expectations - but why would that happen? Despite BoJ bond buying monetary growth in Japan has been weak. And does anyone really expect massive net sales of JGBs by the BoJ in the years ahead?
If you have expensive house with large debts against them, then you have a lot of leverage. If prices are firm, that's terrific. If prices were ever to significantly negatively adjust, you would have a serious problem.
During the 1989-1994 house price decline, the real terms decline in the value of British house prices was more than 40% (see: http://monevator.monevator.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/real-house-prices.jpg). In that event, we would suddenly have very serious problems.
A speck of doubt that Dan Hannan isn’t going to vote Remain?
A: The BOJ has a mega mega write off of 'assets'. Does it become technically insolvent? Don't know.
B. Non Japanese government holders of JGD will demand their repayments. So a round of massive court cases.
c. Japan as a nation is 'financed' by paying its public sector in IOUs. The Yen will collapse (that is the whole point). Trade war on stilts with China and other exporters (Germany?).
D. Spotlight on all the countries with crap debt dynamics and demographics. Cost of debt soars in these (treasury prices collapse).
E. Tumbleweed rolls through the world markets as we return to barter and hunting wild animals to eke out a survival.
I wouldn't worry. If recent media has taught us anything, it's that a dystopian hell can easily be thwarted by a teenage girl who is conflicted about which of two boys to date.
I'd be 51 already (which is a bit crap) but I'd have the dollars.
A: The BOJ has a mega mega write off of 'assets'. Does it become technically insolvent? Don't know.
B. Non Japanese government holders of JGD will demand their repayments. So a round of massive court cases.
c. Japan as a nation is 'financed' by paying its public sector in IOUs. The Yen will collapse (that is the whole point). Trade war on stilts with China and other exporters (Germany?).
D. Spotlight on all the countries with crap debt dynamics and demographics. Cost of debt soars in these (treasury prices collapse).
E. Tumbleweed rolls through the world markets as we return to barter and hunting wild animals to eek out a survival.
You are misunderstanding. The suggestion is only that the BoJ-owned JGBs will be cancelled (or more likely turned into some kind of perpetual bond in which case they stay on the BoJ balance sheet as an asset), not those owned by private investors.
Currently, the government pays interest on the BoJ holdings which then gets recycled back to the government as profit remittances by the BoJ - so as I mentioned the debt has effectively been cancelled already.
If that's the weakest link in Hannan's argument, it must be pretty sound.
Mr. Max, have you heard the rumours of a new Xbox console? I do wonder, if it were markedly more powerful than the PS4, if people would be thrilled or pissed. Might depend on their wallet. If Sony released the PS5 this or next year, I'd be deeply irked.
The two sides typically have very little time for each other's arguments. The other week I was having dinner with a friend who is also pro-Remain and he remarked that there was nothing to the Leave case except a hankering for the Empire. I said I thought that was going too far and that there were some sensible arguments for Leave. Then he challenged me to produce one and I couldn't. However, never liking to admit I am wrong, I kept trying for the next hour.
I'd expect the price of land to mirror that of housing, but that might be wrong. If it does mirror it, is there any lag between the two?
It's never good starting an article with something very dubious. Dan Hannan has done that in two successive articles for the Mail - last week was the assertion that the only person who would lose their job if we left the EU was him.
Man who wants to leave EU justifies view is not exactly stop the press news.
Although today's metro headline is spectacular.
Cameron - rich, but legal.
Corbyn - incompetent. Utterly, utterly incompetent.
Leaflets in Glasgow are asking people to vote for Ruth Davidson.
There are a good chunk of Remain supporters (like your friend) who are a little bit embarrassed about Britain, Britishness and British history who worry that UK independence will turbocharge patriotism, social conservatism and anglocentric policymaking, rather than progressive values, diversity and internationalism.
Quite simply, they think staying in the EU keeps it in check.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.
Even if base does start rising it will have to rise much higher than I'd expect to make me sweat.
Bar doing a Jeremy Clarkson and wanting full integration re the same army, money and plugs - it'd be interesting to see which specific arguments are most important to Remainders.
Being against XYZ isn't an aspirational position in my view.
In the same way as taxes are something other people should pay more of, it seems for a lot of Brits democracy is something you shouldn't have more of unless it comes up with the right(-on) answers. Can't have those fearful oiks in the lower order having a say over how their country operates they might do all sorts of dreadful things.
As an aside, the Establishment has been pro-EU for a very long time for slightly different reasons. It sounds silly, given how far in the past it now is, but we underestimate how much things like the Fall of Singapore in 1942 and the Suez Crisis in 1956 totally shook Britain's ability to govern itself as an independent nation to the core.
The economic sluggishness of the 60s and 70s only added to that.
My friend is actually quite anti the EU (because of its treatment of Greece, something which I brought up - the difficulty is that that doesn't clearly link to a reason why the UK should leave).
He's also vehemently anti-Osborne.
'It is still a lot of growth. The EZ GDP in 2014 was $11 000 billion. 1% growth is $110 billion per year.
You have to consider the baseline as well as percentage when considering rises.'
Yes but you have to consider the growth of other regions as well. If you do that, then these kinds of projections show the Eurozone's share of world GDP declining steadily over the next 10-15 years.
Even more striking is what happens to the Eurozone share of incremental world GDP growth. So while China and India may account for 35-40% of the rise in the level of world GDP over the next decade, the Eurozone's share will be less than 10%.
"Hague: Don't judge PMs on their finances"
Also, the new World Bank data website is complete shit.
Are you saying politicians shouldn't say an unpopular truth? Why don't we just replace all politicians with Churchill dogs to nod along with whatever media meme we have today?