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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same
According to the regular ConHome surveys and a YouGov CON members poll last month the blue team’s members are solidly for LEAVE and this impacts on perceptions of how Tory voters will split on June 23rd.
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But yes, UKIPCONHome is not a reliable guide to Con members, let alone voters.
As to Cameron, he's had a torrid time - but with the Corbyn revelations I suspect that this is quickly turning into "they're all as bad as each other" and "Cameron's a rich bloke" which is hardly news - and not a particularly sensitive issue with Con voters.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/snp-accused-of-refusing-calls-for-school-building-checks-1-4096553
The Sun’s revelation today poses serious questions about whether Mr Corbyn has himself evaded tax, landing him in serious trouble.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7067902/Question-mark-over-Jeremy-Corbyns-tax-affairs-after-he-failed-to-declare-450-earnings-to-taxman.html
8888 seconds
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It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
Trump 54 .. Kasich 21 .. Cruz 18
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 41
Clinton 61 .. Trump 32
Clinton 53 .. Kasich 38
Clinton 61 .. Cruz 31
Sanders 64 .. Trump 31
Sanders 57 .. Kasich 35
Sanders 55 .. Cruz 28
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC News_WSJ_Marist Poll_New York_ Annotated Questionnaire_April 2016
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 39
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/f0b0dbc3-0429-48fe-9e98-567
Not personal or ungrateful. That's just politics.
I also agree that turnout by Labour voters is likely to be key. No doubt there will be a series of inspirational speeches by Corbyn once the locals are out of the way to inspire them.
They might like the leadership and Cameron, but that's a different matter.
Nick Sutton ✔@suttonnick
Tuesday's Metro front page:
Corbyn the tax bodger#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
9:29 PM - 11 Apr 2016
15 15 Retweets 7 7 likes
They have even managed to get "evade" into the quote about Corbyn. Risky if not correct
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7067902/Question-mark-over-
Jeremy-Corbyns-tax-affairs-after-he-failed-to-declare-450-earnings-to-taxman.html
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare
the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure
there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/11/germany-tells-greece-it-needs-to-do-more-as-debt-talks-stutter-a/
One of the many problems caused by the status quo is that there is no democratic oversight of the ECB's policies. If the UK left to the EEA one of the major impediments to a real role to the currently toy town European Parliament would disappear. Even if we vote for remain I think this will be a driver to differentiation within the EU between EZ and non EZ countries very quickly. The status quo where countries get ordered about by an unelected bank in the pocket of the Germans with no real say simply cannot continue indefinitely.
April 11
"If The Sun is right JC may owe £180 in tax. Hardly Dodgy Dave territory"
QED
Can you just imagine the self righteous furore from the left had a single pound been inadvertently not declared.
Oh wait a minute .....it's happening even when it was all declared.
Jeeeez...
Kinnock and Foot can't match his delivery.
It is quite clear he is used to doing this himself and as an irrelevant backbencher that was probably fine, if somewhat unwise. But this return was filled in as LOTO. He really should have got some professional help to make sure it was accurate and bullet proof. No one sensible would suggest there is anything major here, other than incompetence, but really, what a fool.
And we are working on it...
"How much IHT has Dave dodged?"
Zero pounds. You need to check the rules from HMRC . However Corbyn has "dodged" 180 quid
though under the HMRC rules if The Suns reports are correct?If he has then he
surely has to resign immediately.
In Labour Taxes obviously are only for the little people not for the great
Left wing elite even if it was only a tiny tiny tiny amount........
I mean you and I might think it risible, incompetent, and hypocritical but many people might relate that return to the difficulties they themselves face at 11.30pm every Jan 31st.
£0 as far as one can tell.
60/40 is a pretty hefty split (also my prediction for Remain's victory).
Since it's made clear the main issue with Dave is he's wealthy - a lot of talk about how he was given large sums even if it is all legal and declared as it shows he doesn't understand normal people- the fact Corbyn may have missed off some very small amount won't lead the national press for long if at all I suspect.pm receives 200k gift makes a headline even if that's above board. Opposition leader didn't decade a few hundred looks petty to report on, pathetic pushback from Tories, even if it is the case it is actually against the rules, unlike the other story. At that amount it's also clearly a mistake not something nefarious, so won't be seen as dodgy.
(Standard Tory answer about strange elected representatives)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/11/olivier-blanchard-eyes-ugly-end-game-for-japan-on-debt-spiral/
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
They'll hang it round his neck from here to 2020.
And are willing to believe that debt and deficit are the same thing... but maybe that is just fingers-in-ear lalalala time, because if they accepted that things were still getting worse, just not quite as fast as before, they might have to do something about it. Yes, I know about Osborne's dream to run a surplus, but he has taken so long to get there it's going to run into the back of the next downturn and... not happen.
Corbyn has plenty hanging round his neck, so a bit more won't do that much more harm, but it won't reverse span you damage done to Cameron either even if it is technically worse.
Women: aged 26-30
Degree: BA or Masters
Relationship status: Single for less than six months
etc.
He was able to put himself in thousands of women's Facebook feed.
It didn't get him a girlfriend, mind. He ended up dating his boss.
Wait for the press to do more digging.
Labour have also shot themselves in their feet by wanting political journalists and the like (however that is defined) to have their returns released. They'll now have all but the most strident lefty journalists against them.
It's nothing to do with the Murdoch press: it's to do with Labour having unleashed a beast they might not be able to control. When you make spurious attacks as they did against Cameron, it opens yourself up to similar attacks. And there's always the chance that such attacks will uncover something.
Unless you are saying Labour should be held to a lower standard than Conservatives?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36017840
Seems to have gone through formally.
Now all we need is for Ecclestone and Todt to resign, and all shall be well. Or, improved at least. Hopefully.
Hmm, - Not sure how representative ConHome is of anything, or how useful s single YouGov poll is but the impression I've got from reading PB over the past six months is that the only party members overwhelmingly in favour of Leave is UKiP, Tories roughly split between the two and LDs marginally pro remain.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36017170
Hmm.
I have a great deal of respect for Ecclestone, and fear for the future of F1 when he goes. He's made F1 the global sport it is and whilst he makes mistakes, I doubt any successor would have quite his reach.
My only question is whether he's losing that skill and reach as he ages.
He's much sharper and knowledgeable than most people realise. Todt's awful.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/11/eu-referendum-brexit-political-arson
He uses a version of one of Meeks's maxims, though without the critical second part:
There are two types of people: those who solve problems and those who are problems. It is much more fun to be the problem than to solve problems.
The fun element is being overlooked.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Corbyn is going to be a problem for the Remain campaign, and it may well be the thing that turns the Labour activists off him.
Corbyn is half-hearted about the issue, a very poor speaker and characteristically incompetent in how he campaigns.
https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/why-the-government-believes-we-should-remain/eu-referendum-leaflet/
1111 seconds
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/719778128789434368
Will Brand SLab be able to resist Ruthcon1? For those who believe not, you can still get 2/1 on SCons most seats without the SNP, though interestingly Lads have suspended betting on SLab in that market.
So: in the old world, you £100 gave money to the bank, and it lent £100 to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £100.
After your bank goes bust sells its loan book to the Government Bad Bank Ltd, then the structure is: loan of £100 to government; loan of £100 from government to Bad Bank Ltd; loan of £100 from Bad Bank Ltd to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £200 (as only the loan to the government and the loan to Joe's construction are counted).
The result of this is that as bad banks are unwound, government debt levels can come down very quickly. In Ireland, as NAMA has sold assets, government debt has fallen more than 25% of GDP. In Spain, SAREB is beginning to sell assets and that will bring Spanish debt-to-GDP down quite quickly. I forget the name of the Portueguese bad bank, but the same will be true there. It is not, of course, true of Italy which does not have a bad bank. (Jokingly, I'd argue it has lots of bad banks.)
Still, how it plays with floating voters is what counts. Will they see his line about disarmament as fearful, or comical?
Mr. Jessop (2), Ecclestone's off his rocker. It's time for him to go.
I know Scottish Education is not what it was......
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :
Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?
Remain 54% (+1) .. Leave 46% (-1)
Turnout Projection 62% (+0.5)
Changes from 8th April.
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union
When mortgage rates were astronomic, in the 80’s and early 90’s people extended their mortgage periods to try and manage the payments
Edited for spelling.
My ARSE is tighter than the fit of TSE's pink leather trousers.
Spain used to run a 10% current account deficit. It now runs a current account surplus.
In fact, all of the garlic zone exports more than they import now - something we sadly do not, In almost all the PIIGS, exports are up more than 50% in the last six years.
Spain and Portugal have dramatically liberalised their labour markets. Italy is liberalising. France and Greece are laggards.
The Spanish government forced through massive changes to their banking sector: they closed 48 of the 50 Caixa, forced the banks to raise more than €100bn in new equity, and recognise more than €300bn of losses.
Government spending has been slashed in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Greece. It's been cut in Italy.
If you read back the criticisms I wrote on this board about the PIIGS in 2010, they were along the lines of:
- insolvent banking sectors
- excessive government spending
- massive current account deficits
- sclerotic labour markets
Sure, some of those problems still exist in some of the Garlic zone. But the important to remember is: as all of these countries are running current account surpluses, none of none of them need to import capital to survive.