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Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

As Margaret Thatcher found out....ahem.....

The council up near me (except my actual council) is putting up a full slate of Tory candidates and campaigning hard to win.

We know the winners in May will be willing footsoldiers in 2020 when these seats are next up for re-election.

128k http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762

Wanderer said:

FPT, thank you for the love-cheat hints. It'll take me a couple of vodka and tonics to get over the shock.

For me the biggest shock was describing the Plaintiff as a 'celebrity'........their Husband, clearly is a very well known entertainer......but [REDACTED], really?

taffys said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

As Margaret Thatcher found out....ahem.....

As William Hague noted, "The Tory Party is an absolute monarchy, moderated by regicide."

Or as someone else put it, to stab someone in the back, you have get yourself fully behind them.

R&T's latest prediction is surprisingly optimistic for the Tories. I seem to remember that they were predicting -250 for Lab before Christmas and the Conservatives' polling has slumped badly since then (and it's hard to see it not going further downhill between now and May 5th).

I appreciate that 2012 was the high point for Lab in the last Parliament but, still, are we really expecting Tory gains in the current climate?

I guess what I'm saying is: are R&T taking full account of the Tories' recent travails?

AlastairMeeks said:

It's quite an achievement to manage to get a bad news story out of this, but you should never underestimate Jeremy Corbyn's ingenuity:

https://twitter.com/LBC_Charlotte/status/718381074359984128

Am I missing something? He is understandably irritated about being doorstepped.

CarlottaVance said:

Wanderer said:

FPT, thank you for the love-cheat hints. It'll take me a couple of vodka and tonics to get over the shock.

For me the biggest shock was describing the Plaintiff as a 'celebrity'........their Husband, clearly is a very well known entertainer......but [REDACTED], really?

Yes, the love-cheatee is 100x the celebrity that the love-cheator is.

@TheScreamingEagles No, I'm happy with it as it stands.

Wanderer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Wanderer said:

FPT, thank you for the love-cheat hints. It'll take me a couple of vodka and tonics to get over the shock.

For me the biggest shock was describing the Plaintiff as a 'celebrity'........their Husband, clearly is a very well known entertainer......but [REDACTED], really?

Yes, the love-cheatee is 100x the celebrity that the love-cheator is.

But this is yet another wonderful demonstration of the Streisand effect.

If they'd left it alone it would have sunk without trace - as it is its now THE STORY THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO READ

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's quite an achievement to manage to get a bad news story out of this, but you should never underestimate Jeremy Corbyn's ingenuity:

https://twitter.com/LBC_Charlotte/status/718381074359984128

Am I missing something? He is understandably irritated about being doorstepped.

Jeremy Corbyn broke my microphone...

MaxPB said:

I'm one of the most ardent leavers in this place and I will be voting for David Cameron if he runs for leader after resigning. Doesn't matter who his opponent is in the final two. I disagree with his position on Europe and the manner in which the Remain campaign is being conducted, however, he is still the best PM and politician we have and the best person to represent us overseas. As I was saying a couple of nights ago, when Merkel got all wobbly about hitting Putin with sanctions for his entry into Ukraine, it wasn't Hollande, Rajoy or Rutte that pushed for EU level sanctions, it was Dave who beat back the German consensus for pacifism and appeasement.

Indeed. Sometimes, when I fulminate against Dave I do feel a bit guilty. A bit like the spoilt child acting up in front of the indulgent parent. There it is.

Mr. Eagles, don't try and hide your power with false modesty.

After all, the first triumvirate had no legal footing.

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's quite an achievement to manage to get a bad news story out of this, but you should never underestimate Jeremy Corbyn's ingenuity:

https://twitter.com/LBC_Charlotte/status/718381074359984128

Am I missing something? He is understandably irritated about being doorstepped.

Oh a day like today he should be delighted to be able to put the boot in...

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

Given your high status within the party, perhaps you could remind the 1922 committee..!

If I had high status within the Tory Party I would be currently

1) A member of the House of Lords

2) Co-Chairman of the Tory Party alongside Andrew Feldman

One of those would make you the first against the wall when the leftie revolution comes, and the other the first against the wall when the Conservative Constituency Associations revolution comes

Having recently explained what the constituency changes are about to to a constituency Chairman, they went from hostile to very understanding and supportive of Lord Feldman's plans.

I'd rate the sense of 1922 much higher than Number 10 right now.

They flex their muscles when required.
As I said earlier, there's an uncomfortable similarity between Cameron and Blair right now. I really didn't like the Party bringing him down as they did. I can see Cameron getting a similar fate unless he pays more attention to the whole Party.

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

Given your high status within the party, perhaps you could remind the 1922 committee..!

AlastairMeeks said:

It's quite an achievement to manage to get a bad news story out of this, but you should never underestimate Jeremy Corbyn's ingenuity:

https://twitter.com/LBC_Charlotte/status/718381074359984128

The famous Jezza temper coming out. How is he going to handle a month of 24/7 of this on the campaign trail.

Yesterday BBC reporter in Gloucestershire thought that Labour and LDs were having problems finding enough candidates for seats. Haven't yet checked if there is a shortfall yet.

Second rate hack meets second rate leader.

The other thing that is playing a factor is the 10% of the Tory Party who have never been reconciled with Dave's leadership have had a bit of a reality check post IDS's resignation.

They were pleasantly surprised when so many Tory MPs came out for Leave, they say this as an opportunity to topple Dave no matter what come June 24th, however

1) Boris has been a big disappointment

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

Pulpstar said:

Second rate hack meets second rate leader.

When Russell met Ed....

Plato_Says said:

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

Thank God for the European Court of Human Rights.

TheScreamingEagles said:

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

They are much more likely to be anti-Osborne though

AlastairMeeks said:

@SimonStClare I'd be irritated too. But how difficult would it have been to pull himself together and say: "The Prime Minister's story is unravelling hour by hour. Most of us would remember pretty quickly whether we had ever had any money in a Panamanian offshore investment and most of us would have no idea why one was needed in the first place. For the sake of good government, the Prime Minister needs to make a clean breast of it so that the rest of us can see exactly what he was up to. If he can't do that then yes he should resign."

It's the charmless peevishness of it - and its not as though its an obscure topic that no one has been discussing.

Some left field question on 'Fishing quotas off the South Coast from 2019' I could have some sympathy with a grumpy response to - but the top story of the last few days?

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that is playing a factor is the 10% of the Tory Party who have never been reconciled with Dave's leadership have had a bit of a reality check post IDS's resignation.

They were pleasantly surprised when so many Tory MPs came out for Leave, they say this as an opportunity to topple Dave no matter what come June 24th, however

1) Boris has been a big disappointment

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

The only thing that's been pushing me away from Dave is support for him from the likes of Roger and tyson. Invariably, I find myself on the same side of the argument as them and I have a rethink. Though they could just be trolling long time Dave supporters like us.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that is playing a factor is the 10% of the Tory Party who have never been reconciled with Dave's leadership have had a bit of a reality check post IDS's resignation.

They were pleasantly surprised when so many Tory MPs came out for Leave, they say this as an opportunity to topple Dave no matter what come June 24th, however

1) Boris has been a big disappointment

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

The only thing that's been pushing me away from Dave is support for him from the likes of Roger and tyson. Invariably, I find myself on the same side of the argument as them and I have a rethink. Though they could just be trolling long time Dave supporters like us.

Having met both Roger and Tyson, you'd like them if you met them, I think they are genuinely appalled by Corbyn and going for the one party leader who is up to the job.

Actually, I'm pretty happy with Boris for Leave.

He's the same solid media performer he's always been. This isn't a Select Committee.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that is playing a factor is the 10% of the Tory Party who have never been reconciled with Dave's leadership have had a bit of a reality check post IDS's resignation.

They were pleasantly surprised when so many Tory MPs came out for Leave, they say this as an opportunity to topple Dave no matter what come June 24th, however

1) Boris has been a big disappointment

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

Plato_Says said:

I'd rate the sense of 1922 much higher than Number 10 right now.

They flex their muscles when required.
As I said earlier, there's an uncomfortable similarity between Cameron and Blair right now. I really didn't like the Party bringing him down as they did. I can see Cameron getting a similar fate unless he pays more attention to the whole Party.

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Loyalty is the Tory Party's secret weapon.

Given your high status within the party, perhaps you could remind the 1922 committee..!

I do believe David Cameron is genuinely concerned that his stance on the EU is causing splits in the party and that he is distracted from the need for good government during this pre referendum period. I hope that he survives as I do believe he was very naively trying to protect his Father and in the end the only accusation that could be made against him is that he wasn't frank enough, soon enough. Next week provides the confirmation of the official leave campaign and the headlines will no doubt move back to the referendum. I think that post the referendum the party will need him to continue for a period in a unifying cabinet and give time for his successor to emerge. I originally thought he would continue till late 2019 but I think he may decide to hand over late next year or in early 2018, unless something detrimental unexpectedly emerges over the next few days.

JonathanD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

2) Just because you're a Leaver doesn't mean you're automatically anti-Dave. Do we really expect the likes of Gove, Zahawi et al to try and topple Dave. Never happening.

They are much more likely to be anti-Osborne though

In the event of a Remain victory, Dave moves George to the FO and Gove to the Treasury, everyone's happy

Boris to Treasury was the truly sneaky move I have heard.

If Remain wins, Boris will be lucky to become a Minister of State at Northern Ireland.

Sean_F said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OGH rightly highlights the Conservative councillors. Almost 9,000 strong, 2,000 more than Labour, 7,000 more than LDs. 9,000 Quiet for now. But what is coming?
Some are facing changes coming from Osborne. The councils with LEAs face losing all schools. The councils with plans for regional Mayor proposals and discussins face major disruption to what they can have a say in.
There is also the potentially massive reorganisation of Associations and how in future councillors are selected as candidates. All under the umbrella of the infamous Feldman Review. A Review led by a man who's ratings amongst members were almost as bad as Osborne's.
It adds up to a set of own goals, splits and internal turmoil. All originating from the top of the party.

The Conservatives' local government base remains very strong for a party that's been in government for six years.

Hard to believe it was 20 odd years ago that the Tories lost 2,000 councillors in one night.

Plato_Says said:

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

You just couldn't make up the thought of Leave using the European Courts of Human Rights

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/718386428468719617

Paradoxically, I find it more amusing that Remain could be brought down by it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plato_Says said:

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

You just couldn't make up the thought of Leave using the European Courts of Human Rights

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/04/07/the-inside-story-of-why-corbyn-forgot-to-mention-ids-when-responding-to-that-cameron-statement/#more-20713

Plato_Says said:

Paradoxically, I find it more amusing that Remain could be brought down by it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plato_Says said:

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

You just couldn't make up the thought of Leave using the European Courts of Human Rights

It would be very interesting from both sides of the argument

taffys said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plato_Says said:

Popcorn

http://order-order.com/2016/04/08/leavers-can-challenge-9-million-leaflet-in-euro-courts/

You just couldn't make up the thought of Leave using the European Courts of Human Rights

As has been pointed out on here many times, the ECHR is nothing to do with the EU.

Wrong, wrong, wrong

Conservative plans to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and create a British Bill of Rights are “Worthless”.

Nigel Farage, UKIP’s leader said: “Whether they like it or not, we will never be free of the European Convention of Human Rights while we stay in the European Union. While the ECHR was initially a creation of the Council of Europe, the pan European body that stretches to the Urals, it is now an integrated part of the European Union.

"Back in 2011 I asked the European Commission a series of Questions about the way in which membership of the EU requires, post Lisbon, a Treaty which Cameron refused to give us a referendum on, accession to the constraints of the ECHR. The answers given make it absolutely clear.”

- ...respect for fundamental rights as guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights is an explicit obligation for the Union under Article 6(3) of the Treaty on European Union.

http://www.ukip.org/let_s_get_it_straight_on_human_rights

Sean_F said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OGH rightly highlights the Conservative councillors. Almost 9,000 strong, 2,000 more than Labour, 7,000 more than LDs. 9,000 Quiet for now. But what is coming?
Some are facing changes coming from Osborne. The councils with LEAs face losing all schools. The councils with plans for regional Mayor proposals and discussins face major disruption to what they can have a say in.
There is also the potentially massive reorganisation of Associations and how in future councillors are selected as candidates. All under the umbrella of the infamous Feldman Review. A Review led by a man who's ratings amongst members were almost as bad as Osborne's.
It adds up to a set of own goals, splits and internal turmoil. All originating from the top of the party.

The Conservatives' local government base remains very strong for a party that's been in government for six years.

Yes, the "vote against the government" protests all went on destroying the Party Formerly Known as the Lib Dems.

Whatever happened to them...?

AlastairMeeks said:

If you have a subscription to the FT you must read this account of lunch with Nigel Farage:

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.html?siteedition=uk

If you haven't, get one.

Is a great interview

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OGH rightly highlights the Conservative councillors. Almost 9,000 strong, 2,000 more than Labour, 7,000 more than LDs. 9,000 Quiet for now. But what is coming?
Some are facing changes coming from Osborne. The councils with LEAs face losing all schools. The councils with plans for regional Mayor proposals and discussins face major disruption to what they can have a say in.
There is also the potentially massive reorganisation of Associations and how in future councillors are selected as candidates. All under the umbrella of the infamous Feldman Review. A Review led by a man who's ratings amongst members were almost as bad as Osborne's.
It adds up to a set of own goals, splits and internal turmoil. All originating from the top of the party.

The Conservatives' local government base remains very strong for a party that's been in government for six years.

Hard to believe it was 20 odd years ago that the Tories lost 2,000 councillors in one night.

I remember it well. The Conservatives lost wards like Aldenham West, Elstree (!), Potters Bar East and West, and Labour took control of Hertsmere Borough Council.

Oh, and Labour won Aldenham Parish Council (basically, Radlett, Aldenham, and Letchmore Heath). Probably the wealthiest parish council in the country, by head of population.

In hindsight it was 1996 was worse for the Tories, it gave you hope that the 1997 general election might not be so bad.

IIRC 1996 so the Tory vote go up by 4% from 1995, when we lost the 2,000 councillors.

Barnesian said:

Cyclefree said:

Wanderer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Wanderer said:

FPT, thank you for the love-cheat hints. It'll take me a couple of vodka and tonics to get over the shock.

For me the biggest shock was describing the Plaintiff as a 'celebrity'........their Husband, clearly is a very well known entertainer......but [REDACTED], really?

Yes, the love-cheatee is 100x the celebrity that the love-cheator is.

I generally can't be arsed to find out as nearly all the time I've never even heard of the "celebrities" in question. I hope someone will reveal the dastardly news at tonight's drinks, if I manage to make it.

The answer is boring.

I made the big mistake of using #threesome on Twitter to try to find out. OMG! I'm obviously an innocent. I just hope Google doesn't remember and start serving me (in)appropriate ads or I'll have some explaining to do to my wife.

#superinjunction did the trick.

Another example of why twitter is best for celebrity-obsessed bird-brains.

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

If a tory party that is tearing itself apart about the EU (again) actually gains seats surely Labour will wake up and smell, err, the brown stuff. And they won't want to be drinking it.

Personally, I find this very hard to credit. My guess is that Labour will do somewhat better than these projections on the basis that the motivation of a lot of Tories is sub-optimal. UKIP may just get a bounce. If they can't do well a month before the EU referendum even Nigel might begin to wonder what the point is.

Labour haven't been gaining any ground from the Conservatives in recent local by-elections. Where the Tories have lost, it's been to independents, or the occasional Lib Dem.

As someone defending one of the 52 from the Tories, I found out last night that I will have a UKIP opponent but not a Green one. Very happy with this state of affairs. I wonder if it's more than an anecdote though - has Labour's leftward shift meant fewer Green candidates? That won't help the Tories if there are fewer candidates on the left. Might be more than the occasional Lib Dem if so.

tlg86 said:

In case anyone missed it, there's been a fall in manufacturing output:

http://tinyurl.com/j4wkhlc

Not good numbers at all.

AlastairMeeks said:

If you have a subscription to the FT you must read this account of lunch with Nigel Farage:
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.html?siteedition=uk
If you haven't, get one.

A good read, for one of the most europhile papers. Not all fair to Farage. Only some of his opponents regard him as racist, I do not.

Quite. I remain entirely perplexed by the arrogant dismissal of concerns from fellow Tories.

It may be big and clever on an interweb forum, it cuts no ice with those getting off the bus en route.

MTimT said:

On topic. "If Cameron, as is likely, hangs on until May 5th then his position could be reinforced by expected gains for his party on that day."

Or. All gloves can come off at that point, particularly with those constituency parties who feel slighted and ignored by Cameron.

FrankBooth said:

Nixon on LBJ. I bow to others' greater knowledge of the United States.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqTMELBh23g

Missing the key word, even though I've re-run the clip several times. Can anyone help? ... "They're calling me the number one [what???]"

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If you have a subscription to the FT you must read this account of lunch with Nigel Farage:
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.html?siteedition=uk
If you haven't, get one.

A good read, for one of the most europhile papers. Not all fair to Farage. Only some of his opponents regard him as racist, I do not.

It's been a tough time for city types in recent years though. Scorned for being greedy, selfish, even corrupt. It must be nice to have a political opponent like Ukip come along whom you can deplore self-righteously.

MTimT said:

FrankBooth said:

Nixon on LBJ. I bow to others' greater knowledge of the United States.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqTMELBh23g

Missing the key word, even though I've re-run the clip several times. Can anyone help? ... "They're calling me the number one [what???]"

Bomber.