Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Torie

12467

Comments

  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016
    Lol talk about ooverstretching Red Ken says Cameron should go to jail.

    Apparently he has also made a false claim in regards to Cameron & slaves. What a piece of work.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,048
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    Remain have gotten Leni Riefenstahl to produce an inspiring movie about Britain's future in the EU.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,478

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    Apparently there is going to be a David Cameron resign march in London tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/718418577745932288

    Such a shame I'm seeing Muse tomorrow night in Manchester, or I would be there (trolling them in person)

    They'd be better off signing an online petition
    How many Conservative backbenchers will be taking part?
    David Davis for sure.
    Interestingly David Davis was the europhile and Cameron the eurosceptic in the leadership election.

    There is something deeply personal between those two that went badly wrong around 2008, but I'm afraid I have no idea what it was.
    I do.

    When David Davis quit and won the by election, he was expecting Cameron to offer him his old job back PDQ.

    Whereas Dave and pretty much the entire Tory Party thought Davis showed his unsuitability to hold high office by holding that vanity by-election.

    The irony of it is, had he not resigned, he would have become Home Secretary in 2010, and become a great libertarian Home Secretary.
    Didn't Davis discuss this with Cameron first?

    I'm not someone who detests the Right of the Conservative Party. As you say, David Davis would have been a great Home Secretary, IDS was and is passionate about welfare reform for the right reasons and I love Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    It was less of a discussion more Davis telling Cameron I'm doing this, Cameron saying I think you're making a mistake, think about it, speak to the likes of Iain Dale, who urged him not to quit, but he went and quit within the hour.
    Hmm. Even so, I don't lay all the blame at Davis' door.

    Cameron is awful at reconciliations and bears grudges terribly badly.

    He should have offered Davis a way back.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Lol talk about ooverstretching Red Ken says Cameron should go to jail.

    Would that be Ken "personal service company" Livingstone?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/mar/04/nick-cohen-ken-livingstone-tax-avoidance

    "Livingstone and his wife are not a couple but a company – Silveta Ltd. He channels his money from media appearances and speeches into the firm rather than declaring it as personal income. The accounts for 2009/10 show he had almost £320,000 stored in Silveta in cash, after clearing £284,000 after tax and expenses – figures that put Livingstone comfortably in the 1%. With this deft manoeuvre, Livingstone could avoid the higher rate of income tax at 40% then (50% now) and instead pay corporation tax at 21% then (20% now)."
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Gove is probably the only other character who you could classify as a beast. The rest are just a bunch of non entities. The same with the Labour front bench. Corbyn's hardly stands out himself- he is as dull as dish water, clearly lacks any kind of humour, and is seriously wanting in the intellectual department.

    McDonnell is a character, and is obviously bright- but that really is it. To think that Benn is touted as a future leader when he had absolutely no profile when he was a minister and is probably more boring than Corbyn if that is possible.
    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    He would have done something else though that would have finished his mainstream political career. In his DNA, like Enoch Powell. Narcissistic, unhinged mavericks cannot stop themselves.

    As much as I don't like May, she has been a blessing for Cameron- quietly effective, and trouble free. David Davis would have been the opposite.

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    Apparently there is going to be a David Cameron resign march in London tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/718418577745932288

    Such a shame I'm seeing Muse tomorrow night in Manchester, or I would be there (trolling them in person)

    They'd be better off signing an online petition
    How many Conservative backbenchers will be taking part?
    David Davis for sure.
    Interestingly David Davis was the europhile and Cameron the eurosceptic in the leadership election.

    There is something deeply personal between those two that went badly wrong around 2008, but I'm afraid I have no idea what it was.
    I do.

    When David Davis quit and won the by election, he was expecting Cameron to offer him his old job back PDQ.

    Whereas Dave and pretty much the entire Tory Party thought Davis showed his unsuitability to hold high office by holding that vanity by-election.

    The irony of it is, had he not resigned, he would have become Home Secretary in 2010, and become a great libertarian Home Secretary.





    Yes, he would definitely have gone out with a bang rather than a whimper. We don't have enough big beasts like that in politics any more. If Osborne is the current Tory big beast (other than Dave) then we've got problems.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    I don't want to dismiss your profession. Good ads can encapsulate an argument in a pithy and witty and memorable way.

    But the heavy lifting of making the arguments - and doing so in a way that will really make people vote, not just to register their annoyance at the EU, but to vote for a disentanglement from it, with all the uncertainty, costs and upheaval that will necessarily entail - even if the ultimate destination is better - takes a lot of work and should have been done from the start of this year, if not before. The last few weeks and months have been wasted by Leave, IMO.

    I think a lot of those who will vote Leave will do so in spite of the Leave campaign not because of it.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Tyson, a character? He's certainly something starting with a C.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2016
    @MrMeeks – I must have missed it, any chance of reposting the offending article please?

    TIA.
    AnneJGP said:

    @AlastairMeeks Thanks for the link to the government EU Ref leaflet, which you posted for me on an earlier thread.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    Remain have gotten Leni Riefenstahl to produce an inspiring movie about Britain's future in the EU.
    If only!!!!!
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Lol talk about ooverstretching Red Ken says Cameron should go to jail.

    Apparently he has also made a false claim in regards to Cameron & slaves. What a piece of work.

    Ken was on last night on Radio 4 replying to some trenchant criticisms by Jonathan Arkush of Corbyn and his laid back approach to anti-Semitism in the Labour party.

    Imagine: you elect a leader who invites convicted anti-semites to tea in Parliament and hangs around with terrorist organisations whose charter says that all Jews should be killed and then six months later you find that there are lot of newspaper stories about concerns that people, including some of your own MPs, have with anti-Semitism in the party. Amazing. Whoever would have guessed.

    Is Ken really the right person to be criticising Cameron given that his own tax affairs are hardly beyond reproach - morally speaking - and, from memory, he never did provide all the information he promised to give about how he and his wife were paid from his company?

  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    IC is a film I've always wanted to see. I watched Lucky Luciano a few years ago but wasn't that taken with it. You seem to be being very naughty at the moment alluding to certain rumours. There's two political ones I know of at the moment. One which involves someone the press may wish to protect and another dating back to 2013 which may have been removed from a book. I can't say if either is true though.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    Remain have gotten Leni Riefenstahl to produce an inspiring movie about Britain's future in the EU.
    I heard she'd was tied up for the rest of the year. Something on the other side of the Atlantic?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @MrMeeks – I must have missed it, any chance of reposting the offending article please?

    TIA.

    AnneJGP said:

    @AlastairMeeks Thanks for the link to the government EU Ref leaflet, which you posted for me on an earlier thread.

    Here you go:

    http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/b2004302-fc8d-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.pdf
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.
    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Lol talk about ooverstretching Red Ken says Cameron should go to jail.

    Apparently he has also made a false claim in regards to Cameron & slaves. What a piece of work.

    I don't like red ken at all but on this he may be proved right if everything about that address comes to light in time. It's not an edifying sight watching the establishment when they're cornered.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    The Carmen film is good. I'd never registered who directed it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited April 2016

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband, and liked Dave's policies.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    Apparently there is going to be a David Cameron resign march in London tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/718418577745932288

    Such a shame I'm seeing Muse tomorrow night in Manchester, or I would be there (trolling them in person)

    They'd be better off signing an online petition
    How many Conservative backbenchers will be taking part?
    David Davis for sure.
    Interestingly David Davis was the europhile and Cameron the eurosceptic in the leadership election.

    There is something deeply personal between those two that went badly wrong around 2008, but I'm afraid I have no idea what it was.
    I do.

    When David Davis quit and won the by election, he was expecting Cameron to offer him his old job back PDQ.

    Whereas Dave and pretty much the entire Tory Party thought Davis showed his unsuitability to hold high office by holding that vanity by-election.

    The irony of it is, had he not resigned, he would have become Home Secretary in 2010, and become a great libertarian Home Secretary.
    Didn't Davis discuss this with Cameron first?

    I'm not someone who detests the Right of the Conservative Party. As you say, David Davis would have been a great Home Secretary, IDS was and is passionate about welfare reform for the right reasons and I love Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    It was less of a discussion more Davis telling Cameron I'm doing this, Cameron saying I think you're making a mistake, think about it, speak to the likes of Iain Dale, who urged him not to quit, but he went and quit within the hour.
    Hmm. Even so, I don't lay all the blame at Davis' door.

    Cameron is awful at reconciliations and bears grudges terribly badly.

    He should have offered Davis a way back.
    No way, Davis showed that he was a loose cannon, not worthy of a Cabinet post. He resigned over something that was never going to stand up in the Lords anyway, I remember that a few weeks later the Lords threw out 90 day detention and the government backed down. He resigned his ShadCab post for nothing and wasted everyone's time with a meaningless by-election for nothing.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    Even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband? Are we talking Clegg 2010 or Clegg 2015?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    I'm not convinced the April 2015 argument is all that critical. The polling barely moved no indication of a late swing.

    The argument was a hook on which to build on the basic fact that swing voters trusted Cameron but not Miliband. Had either of those facts not been true then the argument would be getting laughed at now in the same way as 97 Devil Eyes was
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    Do you have any idea which research method they used?

    Face-to-face, telephone personal interview, telephone computer aided or internet?
  • Options

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    Even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband? Are we talking Clegg 2010 or Clegg 2015?
    Clegg of 2014/2015

    Oh and they really despised Farage.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    David Cameron has some great strengths - in particular, his willingness to trust his ministers, not to chop and change them gratuitously and by and large to back them when the going gets rough. But one of his big weaknesses is that he doesn't even try to manage those who are outside the circle of trust or who he doesn't rate.

    A bit of flattery, common courtesy, massaging of egos and attentiveness would have done him the power of good with a lot of people who started by wishing him well and marginalised the people who didn't.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited April 2016
    chestnut said:

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    Do you have any idea which research method they used?

    Face-to-face, telephone personal interview, telephone computer aided or internet?
    14 question face to face by canvassers, then hybrid polling both phone and online

    Usually asked the supplementaries/voter ID/segments first then VI towards
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    Even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband? Are we talking Clegg 2010 or Clegg 2015?
    Clegg of 2014/2015

    Oh and they really despised Farage.
    That's not saying much then since neither he nor Miliband were very popular. If these people really liked Cameron they would have voted for him in 2010. Instead they risked keeping Gordon Brown in Downing St. They are a mystery.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited April 2016
    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    David Cameron has some great strengths - in particular, his willingness to trust his ministers, not to chop and change them gratuitously and by and large to back them when the going gets rough. But one of his big weaknesses is that he doesn't even try to manage those who are outside the circle of trust or who he doesn't rate.

    A bit of flattery, common courtesy, massaging of egos and attentiveness would have done him the power of good with a lot of people who started by wishing him well and marginalised the people who didn't.

    practically your own obituary Mr Meeks. :-)
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    Do you have any idea which research method they used?

    Face-to-face, telephone personal interview, telephone computer aided or internet?
    14 question face to face by canvassers, then hybrid polling both phone and online

    Usually asked the supplementaries/voter ID/segments first then VI towards
    And they were being told that the Lib Dems would hold?

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
    tsk, usual London provincialism.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    I don't want to dismiss your profession. Good ads can encapsulate an argument in a pithy and witty and memorable way.

    But the heavy lifting of making the arguments - and doing so in a way that will really make people vote, not just to register their annoyance at the EU, but to vote for a disentanglement from it, with all the uncertainty, costs and upheaval that will necessarily entail - even if the ultimate destination is better - takes a lot of work and should have been done from the start of this year, if not before. The last few weeks and months have been wasted by Leave, IMO.

    I think a lot of those who will vote Leave will do so in spite of the Leave campaign not because of it.

    Of course but you need someone with the expertise to structure the campaign and research what's working. It's not ads that are going to determine the result but the electorate need to be instructed on what they should be looking at
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I love films. Those from the 70's are great. One day when you and Roger are in London we can get together to share notes.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited April 2016
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    Do you have any idea which research method they used?

    Face-to-face, telephone personal interview, telephone computer aided or internet?
    14 question face to face by canvassers, then hybrid polling both phone and online

    Usually asked the supplementaries/voter ID/segments first then VI towards
    And they were being told that the Lib Dems would hold?

    They were showing the Lib Dems holding, the Tories realised they wouldn't win if they focussed upon the Lib Dem MP, who were popular.

    They realised they had to focus it on as choice on choosing the next PM, that they lived in the seats that could give the Tories a majority.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    I don't want to dismiss your profession. Good ads can encapsulate an argument in a pithy and witty and memorable way.

    But the heavy lifting of making the arguments - and doing so in a way that will really make people vote, not just to register their annoyance at the EU, but to vote for a disentanglement from it, with all the uncertainty, costs and upheaval that will necessarily entail - even if the ultimate destination is better - takes a lot of work and should have been done from the start of this year, if not before. The last few weeks and months have been wasted by Leave, IMO.

    I think a lot of those who will vote Leave will do so in spite of the Leave campaign not because of it.

    Of course but you need someone with the expertise to structure the campaign and research what's working. It's not ads that are going to determine the result but the electorate need to be instructed on what they should be looking at
    you're lining up for another tampon ad aren't you ?
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Interesting that so many Remainders are keen to advise Leave on their campaign. Fergie would often contact opposing teams and tell them how to beat United.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    I cannot really do German cinema. I found Wings of Desire quite tortuous. I'll look out for Victoria though.

    Sadly, Italian cinema has rather gone downhill, with a couple of notable exceptions such as Sorrentino. Kind of mirrors the Berlusconi period.
    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:

    David Cameron has some great strengths - in particular, his willingness to trust his ministers, not to chop and change them gratuitously and by and large to back them when the going gets rough. But one of his big weaknesses is that he doesn't even try to manage those who are outside the circle of trust or who he doesn't rate.

    A bit of flattery, common courtesy, massaging of egos and attentiveness would have done him the power of good with a lot of people who started by wishing him well and marginalised the people who didn't.

    practically your own obituary Mr Meeks. :-)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
    tsk, usual London provincialism.
    I was recently told about a NI film "'71" about a squaddie in NI during the Troubles. I'd never heard of it but it comes highly recommended.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Tyson, never seen Downfall?

    I'm glad I saw it before the Hitler ranting video meme existed.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
    tsk, usual London provincialism.
    I was recently told about a NI film "'71" about a squaddie in NI during the Troubles. I'd never heard of it but it comes highly recommended.

    it's regularly on film 4 these days. there's quite a film and TV scene developing in NI these days based round the Titanic quarter. The film makers like it becuase Belfast can do doubles of most UK cities ( eg Line of Duty which is meant to be Birmingham ) and the coast and countryside are all within and hour's reach ( eg Game of Thrones )
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Speaking of the May elections, I got my polling card for the Police Commissioner election yesterday and am finding it very hard to discover anything about the candidates beyond their names and party affiliation. Apparently their statements will be published on https://www.choosemypcc.org.uk/ on 13th April.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    One for the animal lovers and film makers amongst you.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/718400480548941825
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896
    edited April 2016

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    Even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband? Are we talking Clegg 2010 or Clegg 2015?
    Clegg of 2014/2015

    Oh and they really despised Farage.
    That's not saying much then since neither he nor Miliband were very popular. If these people really liked Cameron they would have voted for him in 2010. Instead they risked keeping Gordon Brown in Downing St. They are a mystery.
    It didn't take many Lib Dem voters to switch to the Conservatives for the party to lose dozens of seats. Some right wing Lib Dems did make the switch. Left wing Lib Dems went Labour or Green, and Lib Dem eurosceptics and protest voters went UKIP.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    It's a decent enough political thriller- but when you compare it to the cinema of the 70's, and similar political minded films like the Parallax View, All the President's Men, Three Days of the Condor, Marathon Man, Klute, The Conversation etc...- it cannot really compare. American culture and creativity went bonkers during this period and unleashed on the world some dazzling film making.
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
    tsk, usual London provincialism.
    I was recently told about a NI film "'71" about a squaddie in NI during the Troubles. I'd never heard of it but it comes highly recommended.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    A bridge between Egypt and Saudi?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35999557
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    Apparently there is going to be a David Cameron resign march in London tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/718418577745932288

    Such a shame I'm seeing Muse tomorrow night in Manchester, or I would be there (trolling them in person)

    They'd be better off signing an online petition
    How many Conservative backbenchers will be taking part?
    David Davis for sure.
    Interestingly David Davis was the europhile and Cameron the eurosceptic in the leadership election.

    There is something deeply personal between those two that went badly wrong around 2008, but I'm afraid I have no idea what it was.
    I do.

    When David Davis quit and won the by election, he was expecting Cameron to offer him his old job back PDQ.

    Whereas Dave and pretty much the entire Tory Party thought Davis showed his unsuitability to hold high office by holding that vanity by-election.

    The irony of it is, had he not resigned, he would have become Home Secretary in 2010, and become a great libertarian Home Secretary.
    Didn't Davis discuss this with Cameron first?

    I'm not someone who detests the Right of the Conservative Party. As you say, David Davis would have been a great Home Secretary, IDS was and is passionate about welfare reform for the right reasons and I love Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    It was less of a discussion more Davis telling Cameron I'm doing this, Cameron saying I think you're making a mistake, think about it, speak to the likes of Iain Dale, who urged him not to quit, but he went and quit within the hour.
    Hmm. Even so, I don't lay all the blame at Davis' door.

    Cameron is awful at reconciliations and bears grudges terribly badly.

    He should have offered Davis a way back.
    No way, Davis showed that he was a loose cannon, not worthy of a Cabinet post. He resigned over something that was never going to stand up in the Lords anyway, I remember that a few weeks later the Lords threw out 90 day detention and the government backed down. He resigned his ShadCab post for nothing and wasted everyone's time with a meaningless by-election for nothing.
    Do we know how much that by-election cost? Presumably it could have paid for a few EU Referendum leaflets?.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    tyson said:

    I cannot really do German cinema. I found Wings of Desire quite tortuous. I'll look out for Victoria though.

    Sadly, Italian cinema has rather gone downhill, with a couple of notable exceptions such as Sorrentino. Kind of mirrors the Berlusconi period.

    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Wow Cycle- I'm really, super impressed by your knowledge of movies. I've spent a wonderful couple of afternoons catching up on movies with Roger. I'm a sucker for 70's movies (well 1967-1981)- I think in the fullness of time, it'll be considered one of the purple periods for human art.

    Cyclefree said:

    tyson said:

    @cyclefree

    I've just been mooching through my Italian film collection and cannot find Illustrious Corpses. I love Italian cinema, but I have to be in the mood. It's grey and rainy here- just the ticket to watch a movie. I think I'm going to wind away the afternoon watching Judgement at Nuremberg with Spencer Tracey.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustrious_Corpses

    It's a shame that these films are not available. Three Brothers is another one which is superb.

    He also did a very good filmed version of Carmen with Placido Domingo, filmed in and around Seville.

    I've seen Three Brothers and Carmen. A very beautiful film maker as are most Italians of that period. If you are a fan of German expressionism which I'm not other than in a curious way go and see "Victoria" which is on now. Possibly the best film I've seen this year and though a German film it's oddly mostly spoken in English
    The Baader Meinhof complex is awesome and wonderful. Das Boot is sublime.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Lol talk about ooverstretching Red Ken says Cameron should go to jail.

    Would that be Ken "personal service company" Livingstone?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/mar/04/nick-cohen-ken-livingstone-tax-avoidance

    "Livingstone and his wife are not a couple but a company – Silveta Ltd. He channels his money from media appearances and speeches into the firm rather than declaring it as personal income. The accounts for 2009/10 show he had almost £320,000 stored in Silveta in cash, after clearing £284,000 after tax and expenses – figures that put Livingstone comfortably in the 1%. With this deft manoeuvre, Livingstone could avoid the higher rate of income tax at 40% then (50% now) and instead pay corporation tax at 21% then (20% now)."
    That would be the one....when he isn't cozying up to Muslim extremists, taking money from the Iranians, smearing people with mental health problems and war heros..
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    edited April 2016
    It's a great movie. The German version of Stalingrad is seriously good too, and obviously Das Boot is a masterpiece. Now thinking of it we have The Lives of Others. And then you have Michael Haneke- OK German cinema isn't that bad after all. I just hated Wings of Desire with a vengeance.

    Taffys- I've just seen your contribution- and the Baader Meinhof Complex is sublime too. I feel like John Cleese now in Life of Brian...What have the Germans done for cinema?

    Mr. Tyson, never seen Downfall?

    I'm glad I saw it before the Hitler ranting video meme existed.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896
    Sean_F said:

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    Even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband? Are we talking Clegg 2010 or Clegg 2015?
    Clegg of 2014/2015

    Oh and they really despised Farage.
    That's not saying much then since neither he nor Miliband were very popular. If these people really liked Cameron they would have voted for him in 2010. Instead they risked keeping Gordon Brown in Downing St. They are a mystery.
    It didn't take many Lib Dem voters to switch to the Conservatives for the party to lose dozens of seats. Some right wing Lib Dems did make the switch. Left wing Lib Dems went Labour or Green, and Lib Dem eurosceptics and protest voters went UKIP.
    Somerton & Frome and Totnes are two constituencies that demonstrate the Lib Dems' problems in 2015.

    In the former, the Lib Dem vote dropped by 17,000, compared to 2010. Conservatives were up by 3,200, UKIP up 4,500, Labour up 2,000, and Greens up 5,400 (they didn't contest it in 2010).

    In the latter, the Lib Dems dropped by 12,000. Cons were up 3,000, UKIP up 3,800, Labour up 2,400, and Greens up 3,700.

    The result in each seat (and in plenty of similar rural seats) was a Conservative landslide.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Tyson, aye, it's rather good. Practically the only German film I've seen, though.
  • Options
  • Options
    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    I think it is you that don't understand things properly. You are misunderstanding the difference between the fund and those investing in it.

    As has been repeated a million times today on TV, anybody with a pension will have an investment in a very similar scheme, except because it is in a pension fund we will never see it first hand.
  • Options
    I've just received a call from the Vote Leave campaign.
    They're sending me a poster.
    Which is nice.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354
    On topic, a problem is that national MPs and leaders are unfortunately not actually that interested in whether Upper Bognor District Council swings or not - they look at their local results and the national estimated party figures and then move on. Normally they would care about London, but Zac's semi-detached role may have made him less central to Tory preoccupations.

    But yes, I'd think that most critical MPs on both sides are trying to STFU until both election and referendum are out of the way. Expect a rather lively late June.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    There is taxation of the fund. And then there is the taxation of the income which a UK taxpayer receives from whatever is invested in the fund. It is perfectly possible to have a fund which is not subject to income tax (though it may pay other sorts of taxes e.g. stamp duty) but where the beneficiaries do pay UK income tax on the income earned.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    As I understand it, all income which was received by David Cameron was subject to UK tax, as he was resident in this country.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,317
    Are Livingstone's remarks on Russia Today actually actionable?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Belgian media say they've arrested a suspect from the Paris attacks:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36000407
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Only in Britain could there be a sort of "scandal" arising from the fact that a Prime Minister paid his taxes.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Miss Cyclefree, the most unpleasant aspect of the story is seeing Mister Toad on television. At least he isn't trying to smear old men this time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Cyclefree said:

    Only in Britain could there be a sort of "scandal" arising from the fact that a Prime Minister paid his taxes.

    Its shame I can't make the drinks this evening, I have a couple of cracking Panama stories...far more interesting PM paid taxes. I said a few times on here when the people have been banging on about BVI and Cayman they really should be paying more attention to Panama.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016

    Miss Cyclefree, the most unpleasant aspect of the story is seeing Mister Toad on television. At least he isn't trying to smear old men this time.

    Surprised he hasn't claimed that Panama isn't linked to an international paedo network...based upon testimony of a single unsubstantiated account.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Miss Cyclefree, the most unpleasant aspect of the story is seeing Mister Toad on television. At least he isn't trying to smear old men this time.

    Ah yes, the Mister Toad who gouged the taxpayer for all the expenses he could get. And he has the nerve to accuse others of not contributing to the public purse.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, why translate The but not Queen into German?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Are Livingstone's remarks on Russia Today actually actionable?


    Possibly. But Cameron would be well advised to stay away from the law courts. Livingstone is a horrible man who should be ignored and treated with contempt.

    Revenge is a dish best eaten cold. One day, Livingstone will get his comeuppance.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Given the width of the Gulf of Aqaba and its depth, I'd have thought Tiran Strait (where the Gulf opens into the Red Sea) is the only real candidate crossing point for a bridge - perhaps hopping from mainland to mainland via some of the reefs and islands. Be interesting to see where they chose, the route and the design. It would be quite an engineering feat.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    I can't wait to see Remainders response to these polls. More handwaving I suspect.

    It all feels reminiscent of the Lib Dems Winning Here mantra PB prior to GE2015 that misled many of us.

    It wasn't misleading.

    The Crosby/Textor private polling for the Tories in March/April 2015 had the Lib Dems winning most of their Con facing seats.

    It wasn't until Jan 2014 that the Tories start moving resources into the Lib Dem held seats, prior to that they thought it was a waste of resources.

    I mean George Osborne was texting Nick Clegg on election day to persuade him to agree to a second coalition.
    Presumably they put resources into those seats because they thought there was a chance for a return on that investment.
    They did. The polling found the 2010 Lib Dems really really liked Cameron, even more than they liked Clegg or Miliband.

    They also found they were persuadable to switching if the right argument was made.

    It was only April 2015 we found the right argument to make them switch.
    I'm not convinced the April 2015 argument is all that critical. The polling barely moved no indication of a late swing.

    The argument was a hook on which to build on the basic fact that swing voters trusted Cameron but not Miliband. Had either of those facts not been true then the argument would be getting laughed at now in the same way as 97 Devil Eyes was
    Yes - the late swing argument is moonshine. It was obvious down here in the SW that the Lib Dems were in very serious trouble well before the election. But people continued to obsess over the misleading Ashcroft polls and rubbishy arguments about 'incumbency'.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, why translate The but not Queen into German?

    She's always the Queen.

    She's always referred to as The Queen. Not The Queen of England (sic)

    When people talk about The Queen, they aren't talking about The Queen of the Netherlands or somewhere else.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    Remain have gotten Leni Riefenstahl to produce an inspiring movie about Britain's future in the EU.
    If only!!!!!
    Oh Roger, do you really want the nazi ghosts of Leni and Goebbels traipsing all over an already stained Cameron?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, aye, and, with a few lunatic exceptions, they don't talk about Die Queen either...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016
    Not the only well known foreign publication with a famous queen on the front page this week....
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sean_F said:

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    As I understand it, all income which was received by David Cameron was subject to UK tax, as he was resident in this country.
    But the trust he invested in and received dividends from was based offshore in order to avoid UK tax and the tax of other countries other than Panama.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    MTimT said:

    Given the width of the Gulf of Aqaba and its depth, I'd have thought Tiran Strait (where the Gulf opens into the Red Sea) is the only real candidate crossing point for a bridge - perhaps hopping from mainland to mainland via some of the reefs and islands. Be interesting to see where they chose, the route and the design. It would be quite an engineering feat.
    Indeed. Quite fascinating. The geopolitical aspects are also notable.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Not the only well known foreign publication with a famous queen on the front page this week....
    Just imagine if Prince Philip had been the celebrity husband with an injunction about being at the centre of a threesome...
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    edited April 2016
    Local elections key contests - Tony Travers - hat tip Tim Bale.

    http://democraticdashboard.com/blog/entry/englands-2016-local-elections-key-contests-tony-travers
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    Not the only well known foreign publication with a famous queen on the front page this week....
    Just imagine if Prince Philip had been the celebrity husband with an injunction about being at the centre of a threesome...
    What you mean he isn't?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,038
    MTimT said:

    Given the width of the Gulf of Aqaba and its depth, I'd have thought Tiran Strait (where the Gulf opens into the Red Sea) is the only real candidate crossing point for a bridge - perhaps hopping from mainland to mainland via some of the reefs and islands. Be interesting to see where they chose, the route and the design. It would be quite an engineering feat.
    Under the right circumstances, of course, one can walk across.Need a Moses though!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Mr. Eagles, why translate The but not Queen into German?

    Wouldn't that be like us translating Der Kaiser (if there was still such a person) into The Emperor?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited April 2016

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That's all very well. But while he is making this eloquent argument he is not making an eloquent argument to the voters to persuade them to his point of view. And this argument won't win the case.

    You are right, of course. I'm surprised to see Dan Hannan making that mistake, he's usually very sharp.
    There are very few people - on either side of the debate - making any sort of argument at all. If it continues at this rate, we may as well toss a coin.
    I think you have to wait a couple of weeks. I think those working for Remain are getting their ducks in a row and planning a campaign launch in the very near future. I also read that Leave were looking for a quirky agency able 'to think outside the box'. I imagine as soon as they know who is leading the campaign they'll immediately appoint and the runners and riders will be under starters orders
    I don't want to dismiss your profession. Good ads can encapsulate an argument in a pithy and witty and memorable way.

    But the heavy lifting of making the arguments - and doing so in a way that will really make people vote, not just to register their annoyance at the EU, but to vote for a disentanglement from it, with all the uncertainty, costs and upheaval that will necessarily entail - even if the ultimate destination is better - takes a lot of work and should have been done from the start of this year, if not before. The last few weeks and months have been wasted by Leave, IMO.

    I think a lot of those who will vote Leave will do so in spite of the Leave campaign not because of it.

    Of course but you need someone with the expertise to structure the campaign and research what's working. It's not ads that are going to determine the result but the electorate need to be instructed on what they should be looking at
    you're lining up for another tampon ad aren't you ?
    I was thinking of writing a header for Mike doing a comparison between a tampon ad and the 'Leave' campaign using the theme of security absorbance and the ability to jump into convertables with tight trousers.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Not the only well known foreign publication with a famous queen on the front page this week....
    Just imagine if Prince Philip had been the celebrity husband with an injunction about being at the centre of a threesome...
    What you mean he isn't?
    If he were capable of such exploits at 94 then far from getting an injunction he'd be standing on top of Buckingham Palace with a megaphone boasting about it.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Divvie, hmm.

    And yet, we do that for the Japanese emperor (on the rare occasions we mention him), or for the President of France, or Chancellor of Germany.

    At the least, Die Queen is a rather unfortunate title. Given how well so many Germans speak English, I'm mildly surprised none of them pointed that out.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2016

    Mr. Divvie, hmm.

    And yet, we do that for the Japanese emperor (on the rare occasions we mention him), or for the President of France, or Chancellor of Germany.

    At the least, Die Queen is a rather unfortunate title. Given how well so many Germans speak English, I'm mildly surprised none of them pointed that out.

    What I always find interesting is when you see adverts in places likes Germany etc and they translate / dub everything but the tag line remains in English.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Mr. Eagles, why translate The but not Queen into German?

    She's always the Queen.

    She's always referred to as The Queen. Not The Queen of England (sic)

    When people talk about The Queen, they aren't talking about The Queen of the Netherlands or somewhere else.

    British stamps, with the Quenn's head on, carry no indication of country because they were the first postage stamps issued.

    Because the USA was first to issue web site domains they use .com without a country reference but the UK has to use co.uk. This is despite a British designer of the world wide web. We used to be the inventors but now it's the USA.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016
    Cameron's approval rating is going south.
    New YouGov research reveals David Cameron’s approval rating is now at the lowest level since July 2013 and is for the first time lower than Jeremy Corbyn’s. 34% say David Cameron is doing well as Prime Minister and 58% say he is doing badly, meanwhile 30% say Jeremy Corbyn is doing well and 52% say he is doing badly.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    Mr. Eagles, why translate The but not Queen into German?

    She's always the Queen.

    She's always referred to as The Queen. Not The Queen of England (sic)

    When people talk about The Queen, they aren't talking about The Queen of the Netherlands or somewhere else.

    British stamps, with the Quenn's head on, carry no indication of country because they were the first postage stamps issued.

    Because the USA was first to issue web site domains they use .com without a country reference but the UK has to use co.uk. This is despite a British designer of the world wide web. We used to be the inventors but now it's the USA.
    Yet virtually every one of the billions of mobile phones in the world use a chip architected and mostly designed in the UK. In fact, not a million miles from me. ;)
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    Are Livingstone's remarks on Russia Today actually actionable?

    I thought when London chose Boris it was pretty unfair on Ken who had done a pretty good job but his mean spirited behaviour in the last few months has been quite affirming that the public more often than not get it right
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Mr. Divvie, hmm.

    And yet, we do that for the Japanese emperor (on the rare occasions we mention him), or for the President of France, or Chancellor of Germany.

    At the least, Die Queen is a rather unfortunate title. Given how well so many Germans speak English, I'm mildly surprised none of them pointed that out.

    The Queen is probably one of these rare people who embody her title and everyone knows to whom it refers e.g. The King = Elvis, The **** = Piers Morgan.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    Not the only well known foreign publication with a famous queen on the front page this week....
    Just imagine if Prince Philip had been the celebrity husband with an injunction about being at the centre of a threesome...
    What you mean he isn't?
    If he were capable of such exploits at 94 then far from getting an injunction he'd be standing on top of Buckingham Palace with a megaphone boasting about it.
    I have terrible terrible images now burned into my mind...I think I will need to seek counselling.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,038

    Mr. Divvie, hmm.

    And yet, we do that for the Japanese emperor (on the rare occasions we mention him), or for the President of France, or Chancellor of Germany.

    At the least, Die Queen is a rather unfortunate title. Given how well so many Germans speak English, I'm mildly surprised none of them pointed that out.

    What I always find interesting is when you see adverts in places likes Germany etc and they translate / dub everything but the tag line remains in English.
    In Thailand one sometimes sees them in both English and Thai, but of course the script is different.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896

    Sean_F said:

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    As I understand it, all income which was received by David Cameron was subject to UK tax, as he was resident in this country.
    But the trust he invested in and received dividends from was based offshore in order to avoid UK tax and the tax of other countries other than Panama.
    Correct, but it didn't affect Cameron's own liability to income tax.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,038
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This Cameron interview with ITV that was supposed to clear the air and be transparent:

    CAMERON: A lot of these criticisms are based on a fundamental misconception which is that Blairmore was set up with the idea of avoiding tax. It wasn't
    BLAIRMORE: The directors intend that the affairs of the fund should be managed and conducted so that it does not become resident in the UK for UK taxation purposes

    So, is Cameron's statement a flat-out lie or does he simply have no concept of what he is talking about?

    CAMERON: It was subject to full UK taxation
    BLAIRMORE: profits made are not subject to UK tax

    As I understand it, all income which was received by David Cameron was subject to UK tax, as he was resident in this country.
    But the trust he invested in and received dividends from was based offshore in order to avoid UK tax and the tax of other countries other than Panama.
    Correct, but it didn't affect Cameron's own liability to income tax.
    I have no idea whether any of the funds my pension comes from have any such overseas investments. And I venture few of the rest of us know, either, where their pension fund managers invest.
This discussion has been closed.