Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
...
...
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
That's credit to you, you are obviously polite at the door. As well as my own constituency I spent some time in Thanet South, the other parties found it hilarious. I had the misfortune to witness some conversations that made we cringe with embarrassment on doorsteps.
Eeeek.
My favourite canvassing story is having to shush a fellow canvasser in a neighbouring constituency because he was about to tell the punchline of a really bawdy joke as an elderly lady answered the door. He honestly didn't understand why I told him off.
The big irony for Dave is that his voter registration changes will have excluded far more Remainers from taking part in the referendum than Leavers. If the result is close that could matter a lot.
Ah yes. Not thinking through all the consequences. We have the young still being over estimated in the polls as some of them are unaware that they have no vote...
My favourite canvassing story is having to shush a fellow canvasser in a neighbouring constituency because he was about to tell the punchline of a really bawdy joke as an elderly lady answered the door. He honestly didn't understand why I told him off.
You can see why I prefer to canvass alone.....
Wait until you go canvassing with me for the Tooting by election this summer.
The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
...
Fairly obvious then!
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
Do you get many leaflets SO? That is what happens in my safe Tory seat.
Far more canvassing this year, though, when council elections coincided with the general. The local 'local/nimby' party rang my bell despite the big blue poster in the window. Not sure whether to admire chutzpah or shake my head at their stupidity....?
Yes, I enjoy it, fascinating conversations. I used to have fun with opposition canvassers, we all respected that knocking on doors on cold nights is only for the dedicated or the nutters - unfortunately we had mainly nutters!
My favourite canvassing story is having to shush a fellow canvasser in a neighbouring constituency because he was about to tell the punchline of a really bawdy joke as an elderly lady answered the door. He honestly didn't understand why I told him off.
You can see why I prefer to canvass alone.....
Wait until you go canvassing with me for the Tooting by election this summer.
To be fair, as I've said before, the demographic of Earlsfield might actually have appreciated that joke....
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
Leave.EU have Cambridge Analytica who have been highly successful with microtargeting.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
I've lived in two marginals (neither is now a marginal though). I've never been canvassed.
I have just received my voting card for the May elections, which was unexpected. I assumed that large parts of the country had no May elections but I overlooked the police commissioner elections. So almost everyone is being invited to vote in May.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
I've lived in two marginals (neither is now a marginal though). I've never been canvassed.
Good grief. Really? Are you often out on weekdays 3-7pm and Saturdays 10.30-12.30?
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Were there any Tories on the panel to remind her of this?
Heard Gavin Esler on Dateline say "Cameron had to cut short his holiday because of the Port Talbot steel crisis." That was an outright lie, he was due to come home on that day anyway to attend the summit in Washington.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I did some canvassing for New Labour in 97 in a marginal seat. The message was how Labour was a safe party to trust with the countries finances. Several of the party were significantly to the left of Jezza. I think that we probably lost more votes than we gained.
The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
...
Fairly obvious then!
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
Do you get many leaflets SO? That is what happens in my safe Tory seat.
Far more canvassing this year, though, when council elections coincided with the general. The local 'local/nimby' party rang my bell despite the big blue poster in the window. Not sure whether to admire chutzpah or shake my head at their stupidity....?
We get a few, mostly from the LDs. It's an LD ward, but we have a Tory council and Tory MP.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
TSE Voter contact is rarely wasted. The best way to run canvassing is to first make contact with the voters well before the election period. Voters appreciate you are contacting them not just "only at election time". You have a better opportunity to sway their views if you contact them months in advance.
Really? 5 million conversations would say otherwise.
This is all about understanding what the specific voters' priorities are.
That's why last year we knew when we went to canvass Mr and Mrs Smith at 1 Accacia Avenue, their priorities were education, we talked to them about what the Tories have/would do for education.
When knew to miss out number Mr and Mrs Walker at Number 3, as they were ardent Labourites and us going would antagonise them and we'd be wasting our time, so we'd head straight to 5 Accacia Venue, where Mr and Mrs Green were worried about Defence, and we knew to talk to them about Trident/The SNP/Ed being weak and crap.
I think that canvassing is extremely valuable in highly marginal wards and constituencies. In this referendum, though, the majority of the voters will be in safe Labour or Conservative seats, and I expect that there's very little canvassing data about them.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I did some canvassing for New Labour in 97 in a marginal seat. The message was how Labour was a safe party to trust with the countries finances. Several of the party were significantly to the left of Jezza. I think that we probably lost more votes than we gained.
Just chuckling at the bit about labour and finances.
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Were there any Tories on the panel to remind her of this?
Heard Gavin Esler on Dateline say "Cameron had to cut short his holiday because of the Port Talbot steel crisis." That was an outright lie, he was due to come home on that day anyway to attend the summit in Washington.
There was Andrea Jenkyns. She sounded as if she was going to break down in tears at several places. She was torn to shreds.
The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
...
Fairly obvious then!
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
...
...
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
Do you get many leaflets SO? That is what happens in my safe Tory seat.
Far more canvassing this year, though, when council elections coincided with the general. The local 'local/nimby' party rang my bell despite the big blue poster in the window. Not sure whether to admire chutzpah or shake my head at their stupidity....?
We get a few, mostly from the LDs. It's an LD ward, but we have a Tory council and Tory MP.
Ah, yes, that does help to explains it.
In my experience Tory canvassing is much better, and with more of a history, in those wards with Tory councillors (or a history of it).
The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
...
...
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who
That's credit to you, you are obviously polite at the door. As well as my own constituency I spent some time in Thanet South, the other parties found it hilarious. I had the misfortune to witness some conversations that made we cringe with embarrassment on doorsteps.
Eeeek.
My favourite canvassing story is having to shush a fellow canvasser in a neighbouring constituency because he was about to tell the punchline of a really bawdy joke as an elderly lady answered the door. He honestly didn't understand why I told him off.
You can see why I prefer to canvass alone.....
Most people are very polite to canvassers, although I was once chased away by a night worker, in his underwear, who I'd woken.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often
I did some canvassing for New Labour in 97 in a marginal seat. The message was how Labour was a safe party to trust with the countries finances. Several of the party were significantly to the left of Jezza. I think that we probably lost more votes than we gained.
Just chuckling at the bit about labour and finances.
To be fair the voters who were put off were right!
I am no longer in the party, I left because the Gulf war and of the Milburn/Reid changes to the NHS.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
I've lived in two marginals (neither is now a marginal though). I've never been canvassed.
Good grief. Really? Are you often out on weekdays 3-7pm and Saturdays 10.30-12.30?
Lewisham East (1992), Islington South & Finsbury 2005-2010.
Yes, I'm rarely in on a weekday much before 8pm and I'm usually away or out at weekends.
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Were there any Tories on the panel to remind her of this?
Heard Gavin Esler on Dateline say "Cameron had to cut short his holiday because of the Port Talbot steel crisis." That was an outright lie, he was due to come home on that day anyway to attend the summit in Washington.
There was Andrea Jenkyns. She sounded as if she was going to break down in tears at several places. She was torn to shreds.
She really wasn't. She kept being shouted down, and didn't accuse the main opposing party of not liking certain people.
I felt a bit sorry for Tim Farron - so ineffective and ignored that no-one even bothered to argue with anything he said.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.
I am 51 years old and have never been canvassed. That's safe seats for you, I guess.
I've lived in two marginals (neither is now a marginal though). I've never been canvassed.
Good grief. Really? Are you often out on weekdays 3-7pm and Saturdays 10.30-12.30?
Lewisham East (1992), Islington South & Finsbury 2005-2010.
Yes, I'm rarely in on a weekday much before 8pm and I'm usually away or out at weekends.
For instance I'm in Budapest today.
Enjoy!
But that might well explain it. I never canvass after 7.30, and try to make it pre 6.45 - too much chance of annoying people with young families, eating etc any later.
Anecdote - early Saturday morning car washers are my favourite to canvass. Always so jolly and usually solid Tories!
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Were there any Tories on the panel to remind her of this?
Heard Gavin Esler on Dateline say "Cameron had to cut short his holiday because of the Port Talbot steel crisis." That was an outright lie, he was due to come home on that day anyway to attend the summit in Washington.
There was Andrea Jenkyns. She sounded as if she was going to break down in tears at several places. She was torn to shreds.
She really wasn't. She kept being shouted down, and didn't accuse the main opposing party of not liking certain people.
I felt a bit sorry for Tim Farron - so ineffective and ignored that no-one even bothered to argue with anything he said.
Timpson was fantastic.
Timson was very good indeed. Farron was pretty anonymous. I still feel Norman Lamb was the better choice, much more effective on TV and radio.
I've lived in two marginals (neither is now a marginal though). I've never been canvassed.
When I used to live in Swindon South the damn doorbell hardly stopped ringing around election time. Used to canvassed by all the parties, including some of the fringe parties, and then knocked up by the GOTV operation. I guess that is what comes on living in a C1 type housing estate in an ultra marginal.
Nothing will surprise me during the last days and weeks of the campaign, even if Corbyn were to campaign for Remain in safe Tory seats in the East Midlands, like Newark.
Even though Corbyn campaigning in areas where he is most unpopular will probably shift votes to Leave rather than Remain, but that would be some naughty trick from his part.
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Ah, fine - I didn't hear AQ so can't comment on that. Enjoy Budapest! Perhaps you'll run into Alistair Meeks.
Jess was very popular here when she was swearing at Diane Abbott and telling off Jeremy Corbyn - I think TSE named her as his new favourite MP.
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Ah, fine - I didn't hear AQ so can't comment on that. Enjoy Budapest! Perhaps you'll run into Alistair Meeks.
Jess was very popular here when she was swearing at Diane Abbott and telling off Jeremy Corbyn - I think TSE named her as his new favourite MP.
I have just received my voting card for the May elections, which was unexpected. I assumed that large parts of the country had no May elections but I overlooked the police commissioner elections. So almost everyone is being invited to vote in May.
Just got mine too. Seems a bit bonkers not to time these police things with other locals. The turnout will be tiny.
I have just received my voting card for the May elections, which was unexpected. I assumed that large parts of the country had no May elections but I overlooked the police commissioner elections. So almost everyone is being invited to vote in May.
Just got mine too. Seems a bit bonkers not to time these police things with other locals. The turnout will be tiny.
I have just received my voting card for the May elections, which was unexpected. I assumed that large parts of the country had no May elections but I overlooked the police commissioner elections. So almost everyone is being invited to vote in May.
Just got mine too. Seems a bit bonkers not to time these police things with other locals. The turnout will be tiny.
It does coincide doesn't it?
I think literally everywhere has some kind of elections on 5th May -- the Police Commissioner elections cover everywhere bar Northern Ireland, Scotland and London (right?) which have their own devolved elections.
Interesting piece. My only problem with it is the final paragraph: the local authorities mentioned are not going to be the ones to watch on the night IMO because Remain will easily win councils like Brighton and Ealing and Leave will win in Thanet and Southend. It'll be places that are more balanced between the two sides which will be of most interest. Places like Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, Derby, etc.
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often
I did some canvassing for New Labour in 97 in a marginal seat. The message was how Labour was a safe party to trust with the countries finances. Several of the party were significantly to the left of Jezza. I think that we probably lost more votes than we gained.
Just chuckling at the bit about labour and finances.
To be fair the voters who were put off were right!
I am no longer in the party, I left because the Gulf war and of the Milburn/Reid changes to the NHS.
Is there a party who you haven't voted for at some stage?!?
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.
I've commented before about
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.
I've often
I did some canvassing for New Labour in 97 in a marginal seat. The message was how Labour was a safe party to trust with the countries finances. Several of the party were significantly to the left of Jezza. I think that we probably lost more votes than we gained.
Just chuckling at the bit about labour and finances.
To be fair the voters who were put off were right!
I am no longer in the party, I left because the Gulf war and of the Milburn/Reid changes to the NHS.
Is there a party who you haven't voted for at some stage?!?
I have voted for SDP, Liberals, Labour, Labour,Labour, Green, Tories, Lib Dems in consecutive GE starting in 1983. None of the seats ever changed hands.
Interesting piece. My only problem with it is the final paragraph: the local authorities mentioned are not going to be the ones to watch on the night IMO because Remain will easily win councils like Brighton and Ealing and Leave will win in Thanet and Southend. It'll be places that are more balanced between the two sides which will be of most interest. Places like Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, Derby, etc.
I think Leave will win Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, and Derby.
Interesting piece. My only problem with it is the final paragraph: the local authorities mentioned are not going to be the ones to watch on the night IMO because Remain will easily win councils like Brighton and Ealing and Leave will win in Thanet and Southend. It'll be places that are more balanced between the two sides which will be of most interest. Places like Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, Derby, etc.
I think Leave will win Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, and Derby.
I'd be surprised if Leave win Warrington. I would put it with the other Labour-leaning but successful towns as a likely Remain.
Interesting piece. My only problem with it is the final paragraph: the local authorities mentioned are not going to be the ones to watch on the night IMO because Remain will easily win councils like Brighton and Ealing and Leave will win in Thanet and Southend. It'll be places that are more balanced between the two sides which will be of most interest. Places like Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, Derby, etc.
Where's the "like" button?
(Yes, I know that I'm in charge of the site's technical architecture)
Incidentally I've asked this before, but does anyone know of a website along the lines of ScotlandVotes ( http://www.scotlandvotes.com/ ), for the Welsh Assembly, which allows you to predict vote shares and simulate what the outcome in seats will be?
Incidentally I've asked this before, but does anyone know of a website along the lines of ScotlandVotes ( http://www.scotlandvotes.com/ ), for the Welsh Assembly, which allows you to predict vote shares and simulate what the outcome in seats will be?
I think there's something here but you would have to pay for it. Sorry, but I don't know of any free models. Have you checked UK Polling Report?
Interesting piece. My only problem with it is the final paragraph: the local authorities mentioned are not going to be the ones to watch on the night IMO because Remain will easily win councils like Brighton and Ealing and Leave will win in Thanet and Southend. It'll be places that are more balanced between the two sides which will be of most interest. Places like Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, Derby, etc.
I think Leave will win Swindon, Warrington, Plymouth, and Derby.
I'd be surprised if Leave win Warrington. I would put it with the other Labour-leaning but successful towns as a likely Remain.
Will we know how towns such as these have voted? (Excuse my ignorance on such matters)
Incidentally I've asked this before, but does anyone know of a website along the lines of ScotlandVotes ( http://www.scotlandvotes.com/ ), for the Welsh Assembly, which allows you to predict vote shares and simulate what the outcome in seats will be?
I think there's something here but you would have to pay for it. Sorry, but I don't know of any free models. Have you checked UK Polling Report?
Yeah, UK Polling Report and Electoral Calculus don't have models for the Welsh Assembly unfortunately. Hmm, not sure if I want it enough to pay for it Thanks for your help though.
Doping in football...surely not...whatever next, doping in Rugby? Innocent Face.
Are there performance enhancing drugs for politicians? I suggest we make them mandatory if there are.
They probably need performance enhancing drugs for the drug testers.. Too many have been getting away with it (most likely) and with such obscene amounts of money about, its hardly surprising.
Doping in football...surely not...whatever next, doping in Rugby? Innocent Face.
Are there performance enhancing drugs for politicians? I suggest we make them mandatory if there are.
They probably need performance enhancing drugs for the drug testers.. Too many have been getting away with it (most likely) and with such obscene amounts of money about, its hardly surprising.
I must confess to being one of a very few people not that concerned with athletes taking performance enhancing drugs . Say the human body naturally produces small quantities of performance enhancing chemical X . A few humans naturally produce larger quantities of chemical X . Are they cheating because they have a natural advantage ? Say Chemical X is found naturally in Kiwi Fruit so athletes eat lots of Kiwi Fruit to boost their levels of chemical X - are they cheating ? Instead of eating lots of kiwi fruit , they take a chemical X pill - are they now cheating ? and if so why ?
I should have added that in this contest, if I'm correct, the "key marginal seats" won't be in places like Swindon, Redditch, Plymouth, or Peterborough, but rather in places like South Cambridgeshire, Hertsmere, Windsor & Maidenhead.
Doping in football...surely not...whatever next, doping in Rugby? Innocent Face.
Are there performance enhancing drugs for politicians? I suggest we make them mandatory if there are.
They probably need performance enhancing drugs for the drug testers.. Too many have been getting away with it (most likely) and with such obscene amounts of money about, its hardly surprising.
I must confess to being one of a very few people not that concerned with athletes taking performance enhancing drugs . Say the human body naturally produces small quantities of performance enhancing chemical X . A few humans naturally produce larger quantities of chemical X . Are they cheating because they have a natural advantage ? Say Chemical X is found naturally in Kiwi Fruit so athletes eat lots of Kiwi Fruit to boost their levels of chemical X - are they cheating ? Instead of eating lots of kiwi fruit , they take a chemical X pill - are they now cheating ? and if so why ?
The drugs can completely fuck people up.
Cyclist were avoiding falling asleep as their blood doping would kill them due to the thickness of their blood if they slept.
Giving a carte blanche to drug taking is saying you are happy with people killing themselves for your entertainment.
Drug taking is not about eating a lot of kiwi fruit, it is about taking absurd quantities of chemical concoctions at quantities far in excess of what human bodies produce or can cope with.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%
0.5% matters a lot in that context.
Not so much if you consider that the Jewish population is likely to vote somewhere between 2:1 in favour of Remain and 2:1 in favour of Leave.
Conversely, my very Jewish friend from North London - who is a die-hard Thatcherite and ultra party loyalist; loves Cameron - is very, very strongly for Leave.
Working class Tories will certainly be more likely to vote Leave than middle-class Tories and almost no middle-class Labour voters will vote Leave while a reasonable number of working class Labour voters will which probably explains the class difference
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
And it was the Labour government which didn't bail out the Redcar steelworks.
Not to mention the 40% fall in manufacturing employment under Blair and Brown.
Why the Conservatives never expose Labour's record is beyond me.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Men are more wibbly-wobbly in the head. Women on the other hand . . .
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
And it was the Labour government which didn't bail out the Redcar steelworks.
Not to mention the 40% fall in manufacturing employment under Blair and Brown.
Why the Conservatives never expose Labour's record is beyond me.
Perhaps they're not interested in the issue.
Heath bailed out Leyland and Rolls Royce, Darling refused a Barclays takeover of Lehmans
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
I'm doing some analysis on the gender splits on the EURef polling.
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Most of my circle are Remains, as you'd expect, but some say they honestly don't know what it's all about, and interestingly feel they OUGHT to as apparently it's so important (at GEs the same people normally just abstain - "you don't like the government, you can have th eother lot in a few years, meh").
They hope the campaign will be illuminating (good luck with that).
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
You live in one of the poshest and most affluent parts of the country.
Such places are rarely indicative when it comes to elections.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
I'm doing some analysis on the gender splits on the EURef polling.
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
N!
.
I'm doing some analysis on the gender splits on the EURef polling.
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Women also seem to like Cameron.
You always cheer me up.
I still think low turnout/and an opportunity to kick the government can still win it for Leave.
Hope that cheers you up. I don't want to give you comfort polling.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
I'm doing some analysis on the gender splits on the EURef polling.
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Women also seem to like Cameron.
You always cheer me up.
I still think low turnout/and an opportunity to kick the government can still win it for Leave
I don't want to kick the government; I want to Britain to embrace this historic opportunity to shape its destiny, and secure its future.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
I don't think the EU works that well just at the moment. However, to me that's a reason to vote REMAIN, and do what (little) I can to help it work better,
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
Not complicated, Mr Fear??? It is enormously complicated, thanks to the idiots we have heading our government today. And the terms in which they have phrased the question.
On the one hand, we can vote for the EU as it has been renegotiated so brilliantly by Mr Cameron. If you vote Remain, that is a vote of approval for Mr Cameron and his Conservatives.
On the other hand, we can vote for leaving, which is obviously a vote in favour of Mr Farage and all he stands for,
Then there are all the other shades of opinion, but they don`t matter, because our votes will all be scooped up in one of the above interpretations or the other.
Or we can just refuse to be stampeded into voting for either of these dreadful alternatives.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
I don't think the EU works that well just at the moment. However, to me that's a reason to vote REMAIN, and do what (little) I can to help it work better,
At what point would you concede that reform of the EU is not possible?
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
Not complicated, Mr Fear??? It is enormously complicated, thanks to the idiots we have heading our government today. And the terms in which they have phrased the question.
On the one hand, we can vote for the EU as it has been renegotiated so brilliantly by Mr Cameron. If you vote Remain, that is a vote of approval for Mr Cameron and his Conservatives.
On the other hand, we can vote for leaving, which is obviously a vote in favour of Mr Farage and all he stands for,
Then there are all the other shades of opinion, but they don`t matter, because our votes will all be scooped up in one of the above interpretations or the other.
Or we can just refuse to be stampeded into voting for either of these dreadful alternatives.
You're drastically over-thinking your vote as some sort of grand statement. Just vote for the political outcome you want and/or you think is best for the country as a whole. If that is really to remain, so be it.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
It's not complicated. This is a vote of confidence in the EU. If you think the EU works well, vote Remain. If you don't, vote Leave.
I don't think the EU works that well just at the moment. However, to me that's a reason to vote REMAIN, and do what (little) I can to help it work better,
I'd appreciate even one example where an endorsement of an organisation has lead to it changing for the better.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
I'm doing some analysis on the gender splits on the EURef polling.
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Women also seem to like Cameron.
You always cheer me up.
I still think low turnout/and an opportunity to kick the government can still win it for Leave
I don't want to kick the government; I want to Britain to embrace this historic opportunity to shape its destiny, and secure its future.
Seeing Nick Palmer here and with electoral geography being discussed here is an example of how things change:
Nottingham city (East, North, South) 1992 Lab lead by 21,604 2015 Lab lead by 30,780
Nottingham suburbs (Broxtowe, Gedling, Rushcliffe) 1992 Con lead by 40,024 2015 Con lead by 15,130
Nottinghamshire rural / mining (Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Mansfield, Newark, Sherwood) 1992 Lab lead by 29,389 2015 Con lead by 143
I think we'll see something similar in the referendum with Remain areas in and around the big cities and surrounded by Leave areas.
You could well be right.
Out of curiosity Nick but did you have any idea that the electoral geography was going to change when you first became Labour's Broxtowe candidate ?
Middle class suburbia seemed solid for the Conservatives in 1992 yet electroldemographic factors were already trending it leftwards with Labour's vote share increasing by over 10% between 1987 and 1992.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
Such anecdotes are interesting but surely not any more indicative than everyone at SeanT's boozy pub lunch in deepest Devon (or wherever he lives) swearingly opining in favour of Remain.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
Such anecdotes are interesting but surely not any more indicative than everyone at SeanT's boozy pub lunch in deepest Devon (or wherever he lives) swearingly opining in favour of Remain.
Please, please, please call SeanT a Devonshire boy - I'd like to see the reaction.
He actually lives in Camden Town. Sorry I mean Primrose Hill (borders).
My perception of campaigning in London is that it's much more about the Mayoral election than the EU Referendum. Team Goldsmith have sent me a mailshot as have Team Khan while Labour were leafleting outside East Ham tube station yesterday.
As far as the EU Referendum is concerned, I remain genuinely undecided (whatever my Party says and some of the more ludicrous monolithic assumptions about parties from some on here do need to be challenged) and will decide much nearer the time.
As with the Scottish independence referendum, whatever the vitriol of the campaign, it will be in everyone's interests to a) respect the result and b) make it work.
The decision over whether the UK remains inside the European Union could depend on whether young people shake off their apathy and vote in sufficient numbers on 23 June, a revealing opinion poll conducted for the Observer shows.
In a blow to David Cameron and the pro-EU camp, the online survey by Opinium puts the Leave side on 43%, four points ahead of Remain, on 39%. Some 18% of voters said they were undecided, while 1% refused to say.
While most of the “don’t knows” said, when pushed, that they were leaning towards Remain, offering hope to the pro-EU side, the survey will serve as a wake-up call to leaders of all four main Westminster parties, who are urging people to back their calls for continued membership.
Above all, it will be deeply worrying for Cameron, who will almost certainly have to resign as prime minister in the event of a vote to leave. But it also adds to pressure on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Only 47% of those asked said they identified him as being in favour of remaining in the EU, while 40% said they did not know his view and 12% believed he wanted to leave. Some 78% knew that Cameron wanted to remain in.
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
Two of my oldest friends who detest Brussels and texted me in the last six months saying they were definitely "out" have gone all wibbly-wobbly.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Or maybe you associate with spineless weaklings.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
Hmm. That's a bit uncalled for. They are greatly frustrating me, but they are decent people.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
Such anecdotes are interesting but surely not any more indicative than everyone at SeanT's boozy pub lunch in deepest Devon (or wherever he lives) swearingly opining in favour of Remain.
Please, please, please call SeanT a Devonshire boy - I'd like to see the reaction.
He actually lives in Camden Town. Sorry I mean Primrose Hill (borders).
He is a poncy Devonshire cream-tea boy - he was born in Teignmouth.
The decision over whether the UK remains inside the European Union could depend on whether young people shake off their apathy and vote in sufficient numbers on 23 June, a revealing opinion poll conducted for the Observer shows.
Comments
My favourite canvassing story is having to shush a fellow canvasser in a neighbouring constituency because he was about to tell the punchline of a really bawdy joke as an elderly lady answered the door. He honestly didn't understand why I told him off.
You can see why I prefer to canvass alone.....
Far more canvassing this year, though, when council elections coincided with the general. The local 'local/nimby' party rang my bell despite the big blue poster in the window. Not sure whether to admire chutzpah or shake my head at their stupidity....?
Yes, I enjoy it, fascinating conversations. I used to have fun with opposition canvassers, we all respected that knocking on doors on cold nights is only for the dedicated or the nutters - unfortunately we had mainly nutters!
Looking forward to it!
Heard Gavin Esler on Dateline say "Cameron had to cut short his holiday because of the Port Talbot steel crisis." That was an outright lie, he was due to come home on that day anyway to attend the summit in Washington.
In my experience Tory canvassing is much better, and with more of a history, in those wards with Tory councillors (or a history of it).
I am no longer in the party, I left because the Gulf war and of the Milburn/Reid changes to the NHS.
I felt a bit sorry for Tim Farron - so ineffective and ignored that no-one even bothered to argue with anything he said.
Timpson was fantastic.
But no two ways about it, Jenkyns was awful.
Colonel Bucket has accused the govt of not doing enough for defence of the Falklands.
Has she met her Leader?
Even though Corbyn campaigning in areas where he is most unpopular will probably shift votes to Leave rather than Remain, but that would be some naughty trick from his part.
Jess was very popular here when she was swearing at Diane Abbott and telling off Jeremy Corbyn - I think TSE named her as his new favourite MP.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/8151468
This one I think. Great repartee with Dave in the lobby too.
I think literally everywhere has some kind of elections on 5th May -- the Police Commissioner elections cover everywhere bar Northern Ireland, Scotland and London (right?) which have their own devolved elections.
https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/716298019608592384
(Yes, I know that I'm in charge of the site's technical architecture)
http://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/products.html
Thank you.
Say the human body naturally produces small quantities of performance enhancing chemical X . A few humans naturally produce larger quantities of chemical X . Are they cheating because they have a natural advantage ?
Say Chemical X is found naturally in Kiwi Fruit so athletes eat lots of Kiwi Fruit to boost their levels of chemical X - are they cheating ?
Instead of eating lots of kiwi fruit , they take a chemical X pill - are they now cheating ? and if so why ?
I don't think that Remain will carry Thanet, nor Leave Brighton and Hove.
Actually, Leave carrying boroughs like mine, Hart, might be more indicative.
Cyclist were avoiding falling asleep as their blood doping would kill them due to the thickness of their blood if they slept.
Giving a carte blanche to drug taking is saying you are happy with people killing themselves for your entertainment.
Drug taking is not about eating a lot of kiwi fruit, it is about taking absurd quantities of chemical concoctions at quantities far in excess of what human bodies produce or can cope with.
One is a partner at a law firm in the City; the other is an international security risk consultant. Both are Conservative middle-class Conservatives, the core swing group Sean identifies.
A third ex-colleague at work, project management consultant in his 60s and about to retire, is wobbling because he wants to retire to Spain.
He voted UKIP and for Mark Reckless in R&S.
(I should also add they are all men. Are men more wibbly-wobbly than women? There is contrary evidence from the Sindy Ref that they are more emotive on national identity and less "practical" on economics, but, then again, once a lady has made up her mind....)
Not to mention the 40% fall in manufacturing employment under Blair and Brown.
Why the Conservatives never expose Labour's record is beyond me.
Perhaps they're not interested in the issue.
Perhaps you should look for some new friends.
My point is more that it's these experiences that convince me that Remain will win. If this demographic was solid for Leave, as I thought it would be, then I think Leave might just have a shot at doing it.
I don't want it to be true, but I think it is.
(And, believe me: I am working hard to make the case to each of them, and will continue to do so until polling day.)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3520225/Call-old-fashioned-tend-think-people-penises-men-Author-Ian-McEwan-wades-transgender-row-warning-troubling-wave-political-correctness.html
It is looking like what we saw in the Indyref, women sticking with the status quo.
Women are more risk averse, looking at the long term trends of the Ipsos Mori and YouGov issues index, the top issues for women aren't Immigration nor the EU, but the Economy, The NHS, Public Services.
I'm sure Nigel Farage is the right person to assuage their concerns.
Women also seem to like Cameron.
http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/35952240
They hope the campaign will be illuminating (good luck with that).
Such places are rarely indicative when it comes to elections.
Hope that cheers you up. I don't want to give you comfort polling.
Nottingham city (East, North, South)
1992 Lab lead by 21,604
2015 Lab lead by 30,780
Nottingham suburbs (Broxtowe, Gedling, Rushcliffe)
1992 Con lead by 40,024
2015 Con lead by 15,130
Nottinghamshire rural / mining (Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Mansfield, Newark, Sherwood)
1992 Lab lead by 29,389
2015 Con lead by 143
I think we'll see something similar in the referendum with Remain areas in and around the big cities and surrounded by Leave areas.
On the one hand, we can vote for the EU as it has been renegotiated so brilliantly by Mr Cameron. If you vote Remain, that is a vote of approval for Mr Cameron and his Conservatives.
On the other hand, we can vote for leaving, which is obviously a vote in favour of Mr Farage and all he stands for,
Then there are all the other shades of opinion, but they don`t matter, because our votes will all be scooped up in one of the above interpretations or the other.
Or we can just refuse to be stampeded into voting for either of these dreadful alternatives.
Be LEAVE!
Middle class suburbia seemed solid for the Conservatives in 1992 yet electroldemographic factors were already trending it leftwards with Labour's vote share increasing by over 10% between 1987 and 1992.
He actually lives in Camden Town. Sorry I mean Primrose Hill (borders).
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/716356140334977025
My perception of campaigning in London is that it's much more about the Mayoral election than the EU Referendum. Team Goldsmith have sent me a mailshot as have Team Khan while Labour were leafleting outside East Ham tube station yesterday.
As far as the EU Referendum is concerned, I remain genuinely undecided (whatever my Party says and some of the more ludicrous monolithic assumptions about parties from some on here do need to be challenged) and will decide much nearer the time.
As with the Scottish independence referendum, whatever the vitriol of the campaign, it will be in everyone's interests to a) respect the result and b) make it work.
In a blow to David Cameron and the pro-EU camp, the online survey by Opinium puts the Leave side on 43%, four points ahead of Remain, on 39%. Some 18% of voters said they were undecided, while 1% refused to say.
While most of the “don’t knows” said, when pushed, that they were leaning towards Remain, offering hope to the pro-EU side, the survey will serve as a wake-up call to leaders of all four main Westminster parties, who are urging people to back their calls for continued membership.
Above all, it will be deeply worrying for Cameron, who will almost certainly have to resign as prime minister in the event of a vote to leave. But it also adds to pressure on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Only 47% of those asked said they identified him as being in favour of remaining in the EU, while 40% said they did not know his view and 12% believed he wanted to leave. Some 78% knew that Cameron wanted to remain in.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/02/eu-referendum-young-voters-brexit-leave?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/716363501409869825