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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd
Yougov have produced a very useful map that ranks local authority areas across Great Britain by levels of Euroscepticism. . Euroscepticism is not necessarily identical to supporting Brexit, but one can assume that there is a close correlation between the two. What does the map show us, and how does it compare to polling data?
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Hopefully we'll see more from you again.
I should have added that in this contest, if I'm correct, the "key marginal seats" won't be in places like Swindon, Redditch, Plymouth, or Peterborough, but rather in places like South Cambridgeshire, Hertsmere, Windsor & Maidenhead.
I'm looking forward to the night/morning that the results are announced. I'll keep your pointers asa guide
Betting PostF1: my pre-qualifying piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying.html
1) The polls are underestimating Tory voting Leavers (because Tory voters do turn out)
The other said
2) The polls are overestimating Tory voting Leavers because of the Cameron effect, that we should not confuse Tory members (who consider the EU a high priority) and Tory voters who like Cameron, and don't consider the EU a high priority, but the economy, schools'n'hospital are their top priorities and will follow Cameron's lead.
[Joke]
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...
440 Local voting areas, 12 national count collation centres.
Result announced in Manchester
0.5% matters a lot in that context.
Tea Drinkers for leave.
?
It should be a quick result.
Unlike the AV referendum, there are no other elections that day, so there's less administration effort to ensure to sort out and split the ballot papers.
I think we'll have an idea of the final result will be before most people wake up
Glasto starts on the Friday doesn't it (though often people arrive and camp on the Thursday).
So, if you like horror, you can pre-order here: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE/
[I should stress I don't have anything else coming out for months, at least. I won't be releasing a book every 12 days].
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
The margins bet was a tricky one to decide about. Got a few potential bets in mind for the race, but we'll see how qualifying shakes out.
I maybe a bit provocative, I mean, how often do I get to wind up both UKIP and the Nats in the same thread?
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/POLL-RESULT-Should-Britain-leave-the-European-Union-26022016.htm
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
This would suggest that towns with high numbers of retirees such as Worthing voting Leave whilst Hertsmere , S Cambs , Windsor/Maidenhead vote Remain .
As a middle class Conservative I do feel like a swing voter as you've described and probably won't make my mind up until I have the pencil in my hand. It's a weird feeling being a swing voter for a change ...
Is it possible to aggregate the map (population weighted ideally) to the 22 reporting areas referred to by TSE?
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/referendums/2011-UK-referendum-on-the-voting-system-used-to-elect-MPs
You know what that means.
You're going to lose 6 nil.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11757682/2015-really-was-the-first-digital-general-election-here-are-7-lessons-you-should-know.html
Perhaps a good excuse for an AV revisited thread....
A couple of questions:
1- where will be the Nuneaton on June 23rd? I.e. The first area to declare which we think is a 'marginal' so will give us a clear idea which way it's going?
2-How do I support the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition to be the official 'Out' campaign? It's been funny enough watching Vote Leave, Leave.EU and Grassroots Out bickering for six months, but this would be hilarious if they got the official designation instead.
What a load of tosh.
Class based politics is ugly, and more importantly, utterly ineffective. The general public do not think that Tories hate certain sectors of society. Some bigoted Labour members/voters might, but not enough, thank God, are foolish enough to think that way.
The fact that other policies and strategies also make Labour ineffective and unelectable is utterly irrelevant.
The campaign proper starts on May the 9th
I said I had a problem with Saddiq: how did I - or she - know that he wasn't saying one thing in the mosques and another elsewhere? She was, I felt, a little too quick to assure me that he would do no such thing, but she clearly didn't realise that class politics is so 20th century.
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
Cameron is hoping his enemy votes for him.
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.
Look at the front benches of either party if you don't believe me.
Falkland Islands
April 2, 1982: "We have lots of new friends." #Falklands https://t.co/J9qPC5CYkk
This is all about understanding what the specific voters' priorities are.
That's why last year we knew when we went to canvass Mr and Mrs Smith at 1 Accacia Avenue, their priorities were education, we talked to them about what the Tories have/would do for education.
When knew to miss out number Mr and Mrs Walker at Number 3, as they were ardent Labourites and us going would antagonise them and we'd be wasting our time, so we'd head straight to 5 Accacia Venue, where Mr and Mrs Green were worried about Defence, and we knew to talk to them about Trident/The SNP/Ed being weak and crap.
I think this comment above is bang on. Turnout of 'Remainer' MC Tory voters is the key to this election.
Leave need only to calm the horses against Project Fear to pip it.
That would match anything Crosby can come up with.