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Trump becomes betting favourite to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,219
edited October 2021 in General
imageTrump becomes betting favourite to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

This must be unprecedented. Donald Trump who lost the presidency in last November’s election has now become favourite to win it back in November 2024.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Bugger.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    If Biden and Trump run they'll win their respective nominations. The biggest question for both is whether or not they'll run.
    But if they do run, they'll win. Easily. Both of them.

    As to who wins the presidency, I think Biden should be fav ahead of Trump. He has incumbency.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bugger.

    Do you have a big red number next to both of them ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Ooh, another new thread! That’s three running now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    A second Trump term without any of checks from the first could be pretty dangerous. Who knows where we would have been in January if Don Jr had been the VP.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Political assassination is of course never justified, but if I got a crowdfunding request from a chap signing himself Chacal...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bugger.

    Do you have a big red number next to both of them ?
    Nope, I've avoided the main Presidential market but have some bets of Cotton and Buttigieg to win in 2024 with the bookies.

    Am green on Trump and Biden to win their nominations.

    I'm just worried for the world if Trump wins in 2024.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    @Pulpstar. Replying to your earlier point in the schools immunisation. Daughter got the call this week. My understanding of it is that the entire school of 750 or so (excluding the younger year 7s, who have not reached 12) will be done in a single day at the start of next term.

    Once started, I think this will be turned around rapidly. It's just later than it could have been.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Pro_Rata said:

    @Pulpstar. Replying to your earlier point in the schools immunisation. Daughter got the call this week. My understanding of it is that the entire school of 750 or so (excluding the younger year 7s, who have not reached 12) will be done in a single day at the start of next term.

    Once started, I think this will be turned around rapidly. It's just later than it could have been.

    Most schools seem to be requesting parental consent rather than entering in to a minefield of arguments, and I know of at least 1 where take up is way below 50%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Jonathan said:

    A second Trump term without any of checks from the first could be pretty dangerous. Who knows where we would have been in January if Don Jr had been the VP.

    I think he'll go for Marjorie Taylor Greene, or possibly Flynn as VP. No messing about with someone who believes in the (albeit extremely right wing) law such as Mike Pence.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    Pro_Rata said:

    @Pulpstar. Replying to your earlier point in the schools immunisation. Daughter got the call this week. My understanding of it is that the entire school of 750 or so (excluding the younger year 7s, who have not reached 12) will be done in a single day at the start of next term.

    Once started, I think this will be turned around rapidly. It's just later than it could have been.

    To clarify - after half-term, first week November.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.

    He's a beautiful human being with great technique.

    Hope they can afford Kolo's wages.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Isn't it amazing that you can raise a mob to invade the Capitol, get away with that and then within a year be the favourite?

    Feels like we need to reread Gibbon to chart a way through the years ahead.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    A second Trump term without any of checks from the first could be pretty dangerous. Who knows where we would have been in January if Don Jr had been the VP.

    I think he'll go for Marjorie Taylor Greene, or possibly Flynn as VP. No messing about with someone who believes in the (albeit extremely right wing) law such as Mike Pence.
    I would not be surprised for a second if it was Trump-Trump.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    By-election?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Pro_Rata said:

    @Pulpstar. Replying to your earlier point in the schools immunisation. Daughter got the call this week. My understanding of it is that the entire school of 750 or so (excluding the younger year 7s, who have not reached 12) will be done in a single day at the start of next term.

    Once started, I think this will be turned around rapidly. It's just later than it could have been.

    My older daughter, 15, was jabbed today in N London
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    maaarsh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.

    He's a beautiful human being with great technique.

    Hope they can afford Kolo's wages.
    lol they can afford anyone's wages. The bigger question is whether or not footballers will want to head there whilst they're not in the Champion's league. Also whether or not the WAGs will want to live near Newcastle.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    maaarsh said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    @Pulpstar. Replying to your earlier point in the schools immunisation. Daughter got the call this week. My understanding of it is that the entire school of 750 or so (excluding the younger year 7s, who have not reached 12) will be done in a single day at the start of next term.

    Once started, I think this will be turned around rapidly. It's just later than it could have been.

    Most schools seem to be requesting parental consent rather than entering in to a minefield of arguments, and I know of at least 1 where take up is way below 50%.
    I'll be honest, if my kid had tested positive previously, I'd be asking what does this add either in terms of personal protection or herd immunity and why take the outside risk.

    So 50% on first call may not be as bad as it sounds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    A second Trump term without any of checks from the first could be pretty dangerous. Who knows where we would have been in January if Don Jr had been the VP.

    I think he'll go for Marjorie Taylor Greene, or possibly Flynn as VP. No messing about with someone who believes in the (albeit extremely right wing) law such as Mike Pence.
    I would not be surprised for a second if it was Trump-Trump.
    I'd put "my beautiful daughter Ivanka" ahead of Don Jr or Eric tbh.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden and Trump run they'll win their respective nominations. The biggest question for both is whether or not they'll run.
    But if they do run, they'll win. Easily. Both of them.

    As to who wins the presidency, I think Biden should be fav ahead of Trump. He has incumbency.

    I don't think incumbency helps so much in an era with so much discontent with the status quo, and with the difficulty in getting anything past Congress.

    It's easy to see that enthusiasm for Biden could be down, just as it was for Clinton in 2016. And then you have the election-stealing premium.

    But then I was convinced there would be violence from Trump supporters on voting day that would swing the election, and instead there was an ultimately impotent attempt on January 6th that failed. So perhaps a majority will rally to defend the Republic against Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Farooq said:

    Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet?
    Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?

    The market would be suspended. Smarkets and Betdaq would reopen in a few days and Trump would head out to 1000, or possibly just instantly settle as a loser.
    Betfair would probably suspend the market for 4 years. Betfair are useless at stuff like that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.

    He's a beautiful human being with great technique.

    Hope they can afford Kolo's wages.
    lol they can afford anyone's wages. The bigger question is whether or not footballers will want to head there whilst they're not in the Champion's league. Also whether or not the WAGs will want to live near Newcastle.
    Hope someone’s briefing them carefully on the Financial Fair Play rules.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,006
    If Trump managed it he would be only the first President since Grover Cleveland, who lost his re election bid in 1888 but came back to win the 1892 presidential election, to win 2 non consecutive terms.

    To avert that Biden will certainly need to get his approval rating back up over 50% or make way for a younger, centrist more dynamic candidate in 2024
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    'Claudia is a person who is very committed to ensuring justice is done'

    According to her character reference from Corbyn.

    Why does he feel he needs to point out that she's a person?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Farooq said:

    Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet?
    Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?

    You would be waiting 37 months to collect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,006
    edited October 2021
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    By-election?
    Labour had a 12% majority over the Tories even in 2019 in her Leicester East seat.

    Although Peter Bruinvels did win it briefly for the Tories in 1983 but lost it again in 1987 to Keith Vaz
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    'Claudia is a person who is very committed to ensuring justice is done'

    According to her character reference from Corbyn.

    Why does he feel he needs to point out that she's a person?
    Surely he should have added "person with a cervix"?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump managed it he would be only the first President since Grover Cleveland, who lost his re election bid in 1888 but came back to win the 1892 presidential election, to win 2 non consecutive terms.

    To avert that Biden will certainly need to get his approval rating back up over 50% or make way for a younger, centrist more dynamic candidate in 2024

    Is Trump's approval rating still being tracked in meaningful way?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,006
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    Leicester council area voted 51% Remain
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    edited October 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.

    He's a beautiful human being with great technique.

    Hope they can afford Kolo's wages.
    lol they can afford anyone's wages. The bigger question is whether or not footballers will want to head there whilst they're not in the Champion's league. Also whether or not the WAGs will want to live near Newcastle.
    Hope someone’s briefing them carefully on the Financial Fair Play rules.
    If Democrats think they can mint a trillion dollar coin to cheat the debt ceiling, perhaps the Saudi's can sell a billion dollar season ticket to someone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the Saudis want Brendan Rodgers as their manager and are willing to pay the £16 million buyout clause.

    He's a beautiful human being with great technique.

    Hope they can afford Kolo's wages.
    lol they can afford anyone's wages. The bigger question is whether or not footballers will want to head there whilst they're not in the Champion's league. Also whether or not the WAGs will want to live near Newcastle.
    Hope someone’s briefing them carefully on the Financial Fair Play rules.
    I'm sure one of the owner's cousins can purchase 50 million shirts or something.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump managed it he would be only the first President since Grover Cleveland, who lost his re election bid in 1888 but came back to win the 1892 presidential election, to win 2 non consecutive terms.

    To avert that Biden will certainly need to get his approval rating back up over 50% or make way for a younger, centrist more dynamic candidate in 2024

    I've worried for some time that Biden needs to do something special to escape the same fate that awaited Labour/Democrats as they tried to govern in the late 1970s. Like them, he inherited a poison chalice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited October 2021
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    Guilty of one count of harrassment. Prison might be a bit harsh? But I don't know the deets
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I backed the snot out of Webbe out the GE, was a bit surprised how much her majority went down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Ah, I just read the details. Nasty

    Probably deserves a few weeks in chokey
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Ooh, by-election in Islington Leicester?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump managed it he would be only the first President since Grover Cleveland, who lost his re election bid in 1888 but came back to win the 1892 presidential election, to win 2 non consecutive terms.

    To avert that Biden will certainly need to get his approval rating back up over 50% or make way for a younger, centrist more dynamic candidate in 2024

    And it will put the numbers out by 2 - he'll be the 47th president out of 45.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    From 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50467321
    Note: "Labour said Claudia Webbe, who grew up in the city, was an "excellent" choice."

    A local councillor from Islington, funnily enough. The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    By-election?
    Maybe or maybe not.

    Depends on the sentence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/13/mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,015
    Just seen two snippets of the Webbe news on twitter, one from the Sun, the other the Guardian

    See if you can guess which is which..

    "GUILTY MP Ex-Labour MP Claudia Webbe found guilty of harassment after threatening to throw ACID over woman & sending nude pics"

    and

    "Leicester East MP was accused of making unwanted phone calls and threatening her partner’s female friend"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    …and yet another dodgy copper:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/13/police-officer-had-sex-woman-investigating-probe-finds/

    “A former Metropolitan Police officer began a sexual relationship with a woman while he was investigating her, an investigation has found.

    “John McCarthy, who was a detective constable at the time, began sleeping with the woman in 2017 while investigating her for harassment, a probe by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) found.”
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Interesting spat between Cummings and Frost. Cummings maintains Johnson signed the treaty without having the slightest idea what he was signing. Frost said Johnson knew exactly what he was signing. It had been thoroughly thought through.

    A fine example of Frost believing its better to be thought a fool than removing all possible doubt.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,361
    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden and Trump run they'll win their respective nominations. The biggest question for both is whether or not they'll run.
    But if they do run, they'll win. Easily. Both of them.

    As to who wins the presidency, I think Biden should be fav ahead of Trump. He has incumbency.

    Agreed.

    To be honest, I don't know who the Dems could put up who would be a stronger candidate against Trump.

    Biden beat him last time, has done enough progressive things to keep them on-side, and seems to play better in key states like Pennsylvania than a lot of other Dems. Hard to know, but feels like Harris or Buttigieg might find running against Trump tougher.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Has this been reported on by chance

    https://twitter.com/RAIL/status/1448272317545467904?t=QIIT9o9MxnXxUA-7dKHsPQ&s=19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited October 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    I backed the snot out of Webbe out the GE, was a bit surprised how much her majority went down.

    I was told Keith Vaz was an excellent and popular MP, I reckon a lot of that drop was down to his personal vote buggering off.

    Edit - IIRC Vaz is the chair of the Leicester East CLP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, by-election in Islington Leicester?

    I was planning to joke whether there was a difference, but in fact Leicester East is a relatively small majority at the moment, which is unusual or the seat since the 80s. So could be a chance for a convincing Lab win.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,897
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    It would be a great deal more interesting that OB and S. And with Labour having a huge amount to lose - this is not northern wall, this is essential base territory, and the Tories would see it as pretty much a free hit at an outsider's jackpot with no problem even if they lost fairly heavily (look at the 2010, 2015 and 2017 result), and the LDs out of it altogether.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    Leicester council area voted 51% Remain
    Leicester East voted 53% leave according to Hanretty
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    Leon said:

    Ah, I just read the details. Nasty

    Probably deserves a few weeks in chokey

    Cor blimey o’feckingReilly.

    How on earth did that woman ever get to be a parish councillor, never mind an MP?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Roger said:

    Interesting spat between Cummings and Frost. Cummings maintains Johnson signed the treaty without having the slightest idea what he was signing. Frost said Johnson knew exactly what he was signing. It had been thoroughly thought through.

    A fine example of Frost believing its better to be thought a fool than removing all possible doubt.

    The same Frost who has seen the EU capitulate over NI trade
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited October 2021
    Nice to see Shatner back down to earth. Albeit he was originally Canadian, what a different America he, and by extension his milieu of 1960's Star Trek optimism, represent to that of Trump's.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited October 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    By-election?
    Maybe or maybe not.

    Depends on the sentence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/13/mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
    Not likely to be long if it was at the magistrate's, presumably, so probably alright if she is brazen enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Ah, I just read the details. Nasty

    Probably deserves a few weeks in chokey

    Cor blimey o’feckingReilly.

    How on earth did that woman ever get to be a parish councillor, never mind an MP?
    In some contested parishes at least it might well be easier to become an MP, since you only have to persuade a few dozen activists in a safe seat to back you, and not persuade half the village to back you. Though IIRC Webbe was parachuted in?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    By-election?
    Maybe or maybe not.

    Depends on the sentence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/13/mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
    Not likely to be long if it was at the magistrate's, presumably, so probably alright if she is brazen enough.
    Like Rob Roberts I think she'll brazen it out when the reality is neither of them should be MPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Sandpit said:

    …and yet another dodgy copper:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/13/police-officer-had-sex-woman-investigating-probe-finds/

    “A former Metropolitan Police officer began a sexual relationship with a woman while he was investigating her, an investigation has found.

    “John McCarthy, who was a detective constable at the time, began sleeping with the woman in 2017 while investigating her for harassment, a probe by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) found.”

    Well don't leave me hanging, what was the outcome of his investigation into her conduct?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,897
    edited October 2021
    Roger said:

    Interesting spat between Cummings and Frost. Cummings maintains Johnson signed the treaty without having the slightest idea what he was signing. Frost said Johnson knew exactly what he was signing. It had been thoroughly thought through.

    A fine example of Frost believing its better to be thought a fool than removing all possible doubt.

    Both views are self serving. Common sense says that Boris knew what he was doing in the sense of signing up to something which would cause problems, but had no politically possible alternative but to do it and wait for the chance to refix it. Further delay was politically impossible at that time. 'No deal' was economically impossible - it was merely as PBers might say, a trading bet. There were no further options.

    Of course none of this makes sense and there are 10 better ways of sorting it, but this is island of Ireland politics so normal rules don't count.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited October 2021
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Nice to see Shatner back down to earth. Albeit he was originally Canadian, what a different America he, and by extension his milieu of 1960's Star Trek optimism, represent to that of Trump's.

    Indeed.

    Like many jokers on Twitter, I think they should have definitely have put on 'mirror universe' costumes to welcome Shatner when he landed.

    It would have delighted Shatner to realise that he had landed back in the good universe, rather than the dystopia we currently inhabit.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    From Sky News. Westminster Magistrates Court heard statements on Ms Webbe's character from the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who described the MP as a "person of good character who makes a positive contribution".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    From Sky News. Westminster Magistrates Court heard statements on Ms Webbe's character from the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who described the MP as a "person of good character who makes a positive contribution".
    So there’s clearly more than one type of acid involved in this case.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    12% Labour majority, average leaviness, quite Hindu, was more marginal in the past and fell in 83 (on what looks like marginally different boundaries).

    Would be a worse loss than any SKS Labour defence so far.

    What other by-elections are pending or possible based on known criminal investigations / proceedings at the moment? Old Bexley (sadly), Wakefield, Delyn?. Any others?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    edited October 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.


    **By-Election Alert** :D
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    From 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50467321
    Note: "Labour said Claudia Webbe, who grew up in the city, was an "excellent" choice."

    A local councillor from Islington, funnily enough. The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
    She was imposed over the heads of her Constituency Labour Party, with whom she's had a toxic relationship ever since.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    From 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50467321
    Note: "Labour said Claudia Webbe, who grew up in the city, was an "excellent" choice."

    A local councillor from Islington, funnily enough. The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
    She was imposed over the heads of her Constituency Labour Party, with whom she's had a toxic relationship ever since.
    I'm sure they are a sensible bunch given their longstanding former MP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    First Leicester East have weirdo and bully Keith Vaz as their MP and now they have a convicted harasser.

    Not going well there is it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.


    **By-Election Alert** :D
    Let’s say she gets less than 12 months. Presumably there’s then a recall. What do our locals think the odds are of that succeeding? Just wondering if her local CLP might actually support it so they could get someone sane in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So, what do we reckon the chances of a successful recall petition?

    Of 3 to date 2 have been successful, with the other being damn close.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    From Sky News. Westminster Magistrates Court heard statements on Ms Webbe's character from the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who described the MP as a "person of good character who makes a positive contribution".
    Tricky one for the defence. A character reference from Jeremy Corbyn. Hmmm. A plus or a minus?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    Jonathan said:

    Whilst Westminster has suffered people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.

    Unlike the crop of 2005-9, some of whom were mysteriously very rich indeed…
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    Is it just me or has the term BAME vanished without trace.

    I believe @Leon predicted thus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Jonathan said:

    Whilst Westminster has suffered people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.

    What would be worse: That the awful ones rise to the top, or that the ones at the top are the good ones?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    From 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50467321
    Note: "Labour said Claudia Webbe, who grew up in the city, was an "excellent" choice."

    A local councillor from Islington, funnily enough. The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
    She was imposed over the heads of her Constituency Labour Party, with whom she's had a toxic relationship ever since.
    I think that they will be quite active in seeking a recall petition if the sentence qualifies.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    First Leicester East have weirdo and bully Keith Vaz as their MP and now they have a convicted harasser.

    Not going well there is it?

    VOTE LABOUR
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Jonathan said:

    Whilst Westminster has suffered many people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.

    Corbyn-esque! I deplore all kinds of bad MP
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,967
    By-election in Leicester East? Huge swing to the Tories at the last election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    Farooq said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is it just me or has the term BAME vanished without trace.

    I believe @Leon predicted thus.

    Well, you haven't vanished without a trace, so..
    Sorry, don’t get it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,967
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    Leicester council area voted 51% Remain
    Leicester East voted 53% leave according to Hanretty
    The Remain vote would have been concentrated in Leicester South where the university is located.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    Gardenwalker said:

    Is it just me or has the term BAME vanished without trace.

    I believe @Leon predicted thus.

    He's not as daft as he looks, mind you as it's been rumoured that he looks like Sean Trellis the completely unknown author that's not surprising.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    'Claudia is a person who is very committed to ensuring justice is done'

    According to her character reference from Corbyn.

    Why does he feel he needs to point out that she's a person?
    Code for gentile.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Andy_JS said:

    By-election in Leicester East? Huge swing to the Tories at the last election.

    But if that was due to a new candidate who was not liked locally, and it was still comfortable, then it surely should be an easy hold.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,967
    Pulpstar said:

    I backed the snot out of Webbe out the GE, was a bit surprised how much her majority went down.

    Vaz clearly had a massive personal vote despite his various controversies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Whilst Westminster has suffered people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.

    What would be worse: That the awful ones rise to the top, or that the ones at the top are the good ones?
    There are some truly good, talented people in Westminster. With notable exceptions they don't seem to prosper these days.

    Then there are people who seem to be able to navigate arcane party structures and weird internal cultures and find themselves elected.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited October 2021
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    Going down, going down, going down!
    The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
    Without equivocation. He's done more damage to Labour's chances than any other person in the history of the Party. Some say Michael Foot but I think he actually did them good and gave them a reputation for integrity which has served them well ever since.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    By-election in Leicester East? Huge swing to the Tories at the last election.

    Hahahaha, Ukip had a candidate there in 2015 called "Steptoe". Classic.
    UKIP candidates are invariably “dirty old men”.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    36,458 cases for England, a 3k week-on-week rise but not as bad as It thought it was going to be.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Nice to see Shatner back down to earth. Albeit he was originally Canadian, what a different America he, and by extension his milieu of 1960's Star Trek optimism, represent to that of Trump's.

    He's still Canadian.
    Married to an American, but has a green card.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited October 2021
    Farooq said:

    George Galloway to stand if there's a by-election in LE? Seems a nailed on certainty.

    Him, Elmo, Count Binface and Lord Hope must be good friends with all the time they spend together at by-elections.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    Surely you're wondering if Labour will post a record low vote share again?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Roger said:

    Interesting spat between Cummings and Frost. Cummings maintains Johnson signed the treaty without having the slightest idea what he was signing. Frost said Johnson knew exactly what he was signing. It had been thoroughly thought through.

    A fine example of Frost believing its better to be thought a fool than removing all possible doubt.

    What Frost says in this instance is hardly of any relevance, because ihe could hardly say anything else about Johnson nor remain silent on the matter.

    However, I suspect that Frost (if not Johnson) knew what he was doing, not least because the ongoing capitulation of the EU on the NI Protocol seems to bear out his judgement in signing at the time.

    Basically, the EU and the parliamentary arithmetic had combined to put Johnson over a barrel in late 2019, such that Johnson was negotiating from a position of great weakness. Yet within that agreement was a get out clause, Article 16. Now that the EU's subsequent interpretation of the treaty has proved so inflexible and malign, the UK has every pretext to invoke the article at a point when the parliamentary arithmetic has shifted in the Government's favour. So our position is infinitely (careful, pedant alert...) stronger than it was 2 years ago. What we are now witnessing is the consequence of that shift in negotiating strength.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gardenwalker said:

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    By-election in Leicester East? Huge swing to the Tories at the last election.

    Hahahaha, Ukip had a candidate there in 2015 called "Steptoe". Classic.
    UKIP candidates are invariably “dirty old men”.
    The Con and LD candidates in 2019 were both called Dave - & that was their surname
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    LostPassword said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Claudia Webbe found guilty.

    Oooh.

    53% Leave, and two disgraced Labour MPs on the spin… I wonder what the odds will be on a Lab hold
    Surely you're wondering if Labour will post a record low vote share again?
    It crossed my mind!

    27.1 in 1918 will be hard to beat

    37.04 in 1983 after the seat was recreated. Still very unlikely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Whilst Westminster has suffered people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.

    What would be worse: That the awful ones rise to the top, or that the ones at the top are the good ones?
    There are some truly good, talented people in Westminster. With notable exceptions they don't seem to prosper these days.

    Then there are people who seem to be able to navigate arcane party structures and weird internal cultures and find themselves elected.

    Problem is Westminster doesn't reward 'traditional' MP activities like scrutinising legislation (if it ever did), and you cannot advance without internal political skills, so those are the only ones that matter.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,967
    edited October 2021
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Under Jeremy Corbyn, Claudia Webbe was responsible for handling anti-Semitism and other disputes within the Labour Party.

    ITV News
    @itvnews
    · 12m
    During one call, MP Claudia Webbe threatened the victim with acid and said she would send naked pictures and videos to her daughters, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard

    https://itv.com/news/central/2021-10-13/suspended-labour-mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
    5:33 pm · 13 Oct 2021·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1448325941936148494
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    edited October 2021
    Trump2: I'm worried but not worried. I see his path but I also see something blocking it and that something is the American people. If health or the law or some other serendipity don't do the business, the American people will stage an intervention. By which I mean they won't go there again. It might look like they will, superficially and at the moment, but they won't. I don't think he'll be the GOP candidate but if I'm wrong and he is, he'll be losing. I also don't see Biden running for another term. He's too frail imo. So for me, not only will it not be a Biden Trump rerun for WH24, neither of them will feature. It'll be a Democrat who isn't Joe Biden vs a Republican who isn't Donald Trump and, to stick my neck out even further, why the hell not, I'm going to predict that both candidates will be under the age of 75. So, all in all, a nice contra-consensus view that I can make a packet on.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Under Jeremy Corbyn, Claudia Webbe was responsible for handling anti-Semitism and other disputes within the Labour Party.

    ITV News
    @itvnews
    · 12m
    During one call, MP Claudia Webbe threatened the victim with acid and said she would send naked pictures and videos to her daughters, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard

    https://itv.com/news/central/2021-10-13/suspended-labour-mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
    5:33 pm · 13 Oct 2021·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1448325941936148494

    This could be a very tricky by-election for Starmer - 15%+ swing last time against Labour and not sure that the demographics are going in Labour's favour here
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Under Jeremy Corbyn, Claudia Webbe was responsible for handling anti-Semitism and other disputes within the Labour Party.

    ITV News
    @itvnews
    · 12m
    During one call, MP Claudia Webbe threatened the victim with acid and said she would send naked pictures and videos to her daughters, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard

    https://itv.com/news/central/2021-10-13/suspended-labour-mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-of-harassment
    5:33 pm · 13 Oct 2021·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1448325941936148494

    I am fascinated how that might have been taken 'out of context' as Webbe put it.
This discussion has been closed.