Voters can recall an MP in the event of a conviction (as happened in Peterborough in June 2019 and Brecon & Radnorshire in August 2019). I expect such a recall petition would be quite likely in Leicester East, and would trigger a v interesting contest
Under Jeremy Corbyn, Claudia Webbe was responsible for handling anti-Semitism and other disputes within the Labour Party.
ITV News @itvnews · 12m During one call, MP Claudia Webbe threatened the victim with acid and said she would send naked pictures and videos to her daughters, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard
Trump2: I'm worried but not worried. I see his path but I also see something blocking it and that something is the American people. If health or the law or some other serendipity don't do the business, the American people will stage an intervention. By which I mean they won't go there again. It might look like they will, superficially and at the moment, but they won't. I don't think he'll be the GOP candidate but if I'm wrong and he is, he'll be losing again. I also don't see Biden running for another term. He's too frail imo. So for me, not only will it not be a Biden Trump rerun for WH24, neither of them will feature. It'll be a Democrat who isn't Joe Biden vs a Republican who isn't Donald Trump and, to stick my neck out even further, why the hell not, I'm going to predict that both candidates will be under the age of 75. So, all in all, a nice contra-consensus view that I can make a packet on.
You would make a packet on that bet, surely an accumulator bet there, no Trump and no Biden. Haven't looked at what the implied odds would be.
Voters can recall an MP in the event of a conviction (as happened in Peterborough in June 2019 and Brecon & Radnorshire in August 2019). I expect such a recall petition would be quite likely in Leicester East, and would trigger a v interesting contest
The BBC report says that she intends to appeal. If she does, will that hold things up - possibly for years, given the state of our criminal justice system?
I agree with the comment earlier that both her and Rob Roberts should just resign. I'm also surprised to note that Conor Burns has been given a front bench role again in the recent reshuffle, despite resigning last year after being found guilty by the Standards Committee of intimidating a constituent.
Parliament should find a way of getting rid of the really rotten eggs more expeditiously; it's too easy for them to hang on as 'independents'.
Under Jeremy Corbyn, Claudia Webbe was responsible for handling anti-Semitism and other disputes within the Labour Party.
ITV News @itvnews · 12m During one call, MP Claudia Webbe threatened the victim with acid and said she would send naked pictures and videos to her daughters, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard
Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet? Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?
The market would be suspended. Smarkets and Betdaq would reopen in a few days and Trump would head out to 1000, or possibly just instantly settle as a loser. Betfair would probably suspend the market for 4 years. Betfair are useless at stuff like that.
Recall question: does a suspended prison sentence mean a recall vote?
Wiki says 'custodial prison sentence' is a trigger. Do suspended sentences count as 'custodial' if you do not in fact go into custody? Feels like the answer would be no, even if that was not the intention, but I'll leave it to a lawyer.
Other triggers being suspension from the House for a long period, and conviction over expenses.
Whilst Westminster has suffered people of questionable character over the years, you have to conclude that some of our current MPs are very poor indeed.
What would be worse: That the awful ones rise to the top, or that the ones at the top are the good ones?
There are some truly good, talented people in Westminster. With notable exceptions they don't seem to prosper these days.
Then there are people who seem to be able to navigate arcane party structures and weird internal cultures and find themselves elected.
Problem is Westminster doesn't reward 'traditional' MP activities like scrutinising legislation (if it ever did), and you cannot advance without internal political skills, so those are the only ones that matter.
George Galloway to stand if there's a by-election in LE? Seems a nailed on certainty.
Oh yeah. He'll stand with no hope of winning but 3000 votes from Labour to GG could well be enough to deprive SKS of the seat...
Nah. High water mark for the Tories, poor candidate, majority half what it usually has been for 30 years, and the 'normal' situation of oppositions winning by-elections?' Yes, he did well in the last one, but I think Labour are solid here.
Let’s say she gets less than 12 months. Presumably there’s then a recall. What do our locals think the odds are of that succeeding? Just wondering if her local CLP might actually support it so they could get someone sane in.
It would be a tactically astute move in wider political terms if Labour started its own recall petition. Better to get the knives out in public to maximum effect than to do nothing and by implication stand by a disgraced MP of the far left. It could also be justified within the party as the seat doesn't have a Labour MP, the loss of the whip now being permanent, so a by-election win would effectively amount to a net Labour gain of one seat.
The damage Corbyn did to the party is almost incalculable, not least because the final accounts are not yet in.
Without equivocation. He's done more damage to Labour's chances than any other person in the history of the Party. Some say Michael Foot but I think he actually did them good and gave them a reputation for integrity which has served them well ever since.
Michael Foot at least won 209 seats compared with Corbyn's 202.
Hah, just seen this quote from the page on the Recall of MPs Act.
Opponents of the process further worried that MPs "in fear" of being recalled would increase the number of "automatons and lobby fodder" in the Commons
One, I like it says 'increase', acknowledging they already had those types. Two, I really doubt this of all things would affect the automatisation of our political classes (Brexit excepted).
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
What paperwork? I was categorically told by my MP when he was canvassing back in 2019 that no paperwork would be required to send stuff to Northern Ireland.
I suspect I rather threw him by my question but I've been proved right...
On topic, it is not a surprise if you see the newsflow coming out of the States on the political side. The Governors' race in Virginia is neck and neck according to the polls, and McCauliffe has clearly been surprised by Youngkin's support, helped in part by the CRT row impacting schools (and likely to be fuelled now by the emergence that a father arrested at one of the school board meetings had actually been complaining about his daughter's alleged rape by a transgender student in the school bathroom). Pelosi has basically admitted the $3.5 trillion plan is dead so that is likely to kick off recriminations. Add in the inflation / supply chain problems, Afghanistan etc, it is clear that with Biden, to paraphrase Joy Division, "he's lost control again".
That Atlantic article that I posted earlier shows a clear concern on the left that Trump may actually win fair and square in 2024. It is probably the first piece I have seen from a Democrat-leaning publication that a "fair" Trump win is possible in 2024, which suggests a mood shift.
As said though, I am not betting on this market at the moment, there are too many uncertainties around health of the candidates, events etc
Labour now calling for Webbe to stand down as an MP: “The Labour Party strongly condemns Claudia Webbe’s actions and she should now resign,” says a party spokesperson.
Labour now calling for Webbe to stand down as an MP: “The Labour Party strongly condemns Claudia Webbe’s actions and she should now resign,” says a party spokesperson.
Labour now calling for Webbe to stand down as an MP: “The Labour Party strongly condemns Claudia Webbe’s actions and she should now resign,” says a party spokesperson.
Interesting spat between Cummings and Frost. Cummings maintains Johnson signed the treaty without having the slightest idea what he was signing. Frost said Johnson knew exactly what he was signing. It had been thoroughly thought through.
A fine example of Frost believing its better to be thought a fool than removing all possible doubt.
The same Frost who has seen the EU capitulate over NI trade
The man's having visions?
Is he the Messiah? Or just one of Johnson's naughty boys?
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The Brexit Party only got 1243 votes in Leicester East last election, so there's not that many votes the Tories can squeeze off them. Providing Galloway doesn't turn up or Labour pick a particularly crap candidate (i.e. another Corbynite or an ex-FBPE'r), this should be a comfortable Labour hold if there's a by-election.
Just got back from the booster vaccination plus flu jab (one in each arm), all very efficient, but apparently much delayed earlier by an anti-vaccination demo blocking the entrance. Can someone who follows anti-vaxxer social media explain to me why, if they're so fucking libertarian, they think it's right to stop people who do want it?
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
How does that solve matters for the EU though?
Having neutral arbitration instead of one party determining it unilaterally is an eminently reasonable request. If they spark a trade war over such 100%ism then what do they gain from it? They lose everything they wanted and could have got once Article 16 is invoked.
I think if an agreement can be found on every other issue then arbitration instead of the ECJ won't be a deal-breaker. Better to get 50% of what you want than 0% of it for them.
Sky ticker - DUP says new EU proposals are "starting point" but appear to "fall far short of the fundamental change needed"
Listened to part of the EU press conference and there is no doubt that Frost has successfully managed to gain concessions from the EU, which would not have happened had the UK government not inserted A16 into the protocol and I would suggest that the EU themselves did not realise at the time how important this article could prove
The Telegraph journalist did ask if there was any mechanism for independent arbitration and Maros Sefcovic indicated this would be part of the negotiations going forward but significantly did not reject it
It is time that both sides came together and moved forward with a new cooperative attitude and mutual respect and finally put behind us the remainers v leavers polarised and divisive mindsets
Maybe it is too much to hope for but the time is now to move on
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
It's no longer needed because racial discrimination doesn't exist. 😉
I'm noting down every instance where I feel oppressed in my posts here. I'm going to seal it all up, and in a century or so my ancestors will be able to claim against whatever innocent parties they happen to have at hand. just because they might be related to all the bruisers on PB.
Easy money - some people here have been slightly rude...
Just got back from the booster vaccination plus flu jab (one in each arm), all very efficient, but apparently much delayed earlier by an anti-vaccination demo blocking the entrance. Can someone who follows anti-vaxxer social media explain to me why, if they're so fucking libertarian, they think it's right to stop people who do want it?
I'd got a few anti-vaxxers on my twitter time line. I don't think they would support stopping people who want it getting it.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
Recall question: does a suspended prison sentence mean a recall vote?
Wiki says 'custodial prison sentence' is a trigger. Do suspended sentences count as 'custodial' if you do not in fact go into custody? Feels like the answer would be no, even if that was not the intention, but I'll leave it to a lawyer.
Other triggers being suspension from the House for a long period, and conviction over expenses.
But the answer is Yes. Recall of MPs Act 2015 2(3)(a). This is likely to be relevant.
Also, if Galloway does stand, I doubt if Labour would start as strong favourite. If he doesn't they should. If opening odds were long for the Tories they could be worth a nibble.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
Why would that happen?
The ECJ only has oversight over a very small part of the FTA.
Most of it is under a specific dispute resolution mechanism, which very notably the EuCo have not used, choosing instead to grandstand away in public.
It's no longer needed because racial discrimination doesn't exist. 😉
I'm noting down every instance where I feel oppressed in my posts here. I'm going to seal it all up, and in a century or so my ancestors will be able to claim against whatever innocent parties they happen to have at hand. just because they might be related to all the bruisers on PB.
Easy money - some people here have been slightly rude...
If that post is typical then one wonders why it is only slightly.....
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
"Minorities" doesn't work as it is seen, on its own, as pejorative, "you're just a minority and always will be"
That's why they got rid of "ethnic minorities", and reversed it to the tortured "minority ethnic", which suggests they may be in the minority now but just you wait!
Now that's gone as well. They are running out of options. How about "THEM"?
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
The root cause is a history of a minority of Northern Irish people waging political violence.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
I didn't vote in the referendum but I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexiteer cause because the EU is a undemocratic mess.
The root problem is Blair who's to blame for both GFA and Scottish devolution
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
The root cause of the problem is the failure of the whole people and politics of Ireland, in a modern world where the Battle of the Boyne and the split of 1517 are long ago, and where moderate Prots, moderate Catholics and moderate something else's have most things in common, to look at the map and notice what a gift geography has given them, it's called the island of Ireland, and there is only one of them.
Just got back from the booster vaccination plus flu jab (one in each arm), all very efficient, but apparently much delayed earlier by an anti-vaccination demo blocking the entrance. Can someone who follows anti-vaxxer social media explain to me why, if they're so fucking libertarian, they think it's right to stop people who do want it?
I'd got a few anti-vaxxers on my twitter time line. I don't think they would support stopping people who want it getting it.
There are antivaxxers with intellectually coherent positions. But they tend not to be the ones on demos.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
The irony is the GFA is silent on the border - having weaponised it the EU may find it turning round to bite it on the arse….
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Isn't that a bit of a crap term too? There are many ethnic minorities that aren't necessarily non-white.
Surely the right way to talk about ethnicity/race* is either to be specific, so black, white, Asian, and say for groups being complete by saying for example, black and Asian. Or when wanting to desribe the opposite group to talk about them as non-white, non-black, non-Asian. All these attempts for polite, non-specific, euphemistic terms seem to hark back to terms we now consider offensive, or to be so vague as to be meaningless.
* Firstly check you aren't generalising without good reason, there really needs to be a good reason to even mention ethnicity.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
I didn't vote in the referendum but I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexiteer cause because the EU is a undemocratic mess.
The root problem is Blair who's to blame for both GFA and Scottish devolution
What's Scottish devolution got to do with Brexit? Scottish devolution has cost / lost Labour 50 Parliamentary Seats but that had nothing to do with Brexit, heck those seats were lost in 2015 prior to Brexit.
Don't recall making a prediction either way. I don't track the ins & outs of approved terminology in the ethnicity space with quite your enthusiasm. I find it gets in the way of open honest communication if you do that. Either you're inwardly double checking everything before you say it, just in case, or you're going the other way, like you, and constantly making a big point of being lofty and "chuckle chuckle" sardonic about it all. Neither are the way to go.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
I quite like it. It sounds more positive and an identity to be worn with pride.
BAME sounds like it was dreamt up in a windowless office in Swindon.
I guess if it makes white people happy us minorities should just accept being othered with some insulting term that lumps us all together.
It is absurdly condescending and patronising, of course. But you can see why white people need an easy term to remember, because if they get it wrong, careers can end
It's no longer needed because racial discrimination doesn't exist. 😉
I'm noting down every instance where I feel oppressed in my posts here. I'm going to seal it all up, and in a century or so my ancestors will be able to claim against whatever innocent parties they happen to have at hand. just because they might be related to all the bruisers on PB.
Easy money - some people here have been slightly rude...
If that post is typical then one wonders why it is only slightly.....
Class actions rest on the delay of justice.
Just to be clear I positively encourage everyone to be as rude as they like to me (Within the bounds of somewhat decent conversation)
Just got back from the booster vaccination plus flu jab (one in each arm), all very efficient, but apparently much delayed earlier by an anti-vaccination demo blocking the entrance. Can someone who follows anti-vaxxer social media explain to me why, if they're so fucking libertarian, they think it's right to stop people who do want it?
I'd got a few anti-vaxxers on my twitter time line. I don't think they would support stopping people who want it getting it.
There are antivaxxers with intellectually coherent positions. But they tend not to be the ones on demos.
Some anti-vaxxers believe that vaccinated people "shed" more viral particles than unvaccinated. Who knows why, but like JBriskin implies, the intellectual coherence of most anti-vaxxers is wanting.
Don't recall making a prediction either way. I don't track the ins & outs of approved terminology in the ethnicity space with quite your enthusiasm. I find it gets in the way of open honest communication if you do that. Either you're inwardly double checking everything before you say it, just in case, or you're going the other way, like you, and constantly making a big point of being lofty and "chuckle chuckle" sardonic about it all. Neither are the way to go.
"I don't track the ins & outs of approved terminology in the ethnicity space"
Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet? Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?
The market would be suspended. Smarkets and Betdaq would reopen in a few days and Trump would head out to 1000, or possibly just instantly settle as a loser. Betfair would probably suspend the market for 4 years. Betfair are useless at stuff like that.
Wouldn't bets on Trump be voided if he died?
Bets that mention Trump by name in the header, most likely yes.
Bets on, for example, next President or Republican nominee, no.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
How does that solve matters for the EU though?
Having neutral arbitration instead of one party determining it unilaterally is an eminently reasonable request. If they spark a trade war over such 100%ism then what do they gain from it? They lose everything they wanted and could have got once Article 16 is invoked.
I think if an agreement can be found on every other issue then arbitration instead of the ECJ won't be a deal-breaker. Better to get 50% of what you want than 0% of it for them.
Removing the oversight of the ECJ (which was, of course already agreed with the UK and which, in itself, can't justify the invokation of Article 16) would effectively mean the NI is no longer part of the single market. Perhaps the EU could give some ground on the lower-level details, but it's hard to see how they could give up on being the final arbiter of their own rules. And when two sides cannot reach a resolution, then a trade war is what you get. Nobody wants wars of any sort, but they still happen.
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
I didn't vote in the referendum but I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexiteer cause because the EU is a undemocratic mess.
The root problem is Blair who's to blame for both GFA and Scottish devolution
What's Scottish devolution got to do with Brexit?
Blair. The only problem with Brexit at the moment is GFA. Blair negotiated GFA. Blair devolved Scotland
We need terms to make sense of some realities. East Ham constituency and Hartlepool have gone off in different directions, which could be related to the different nature of their populations in ethnic terms (as well as lots of other things). We need a language, without pejorative or racist overtones (Gammon, Coloured etc) to describe what is going on. Bame was quite useful. Of course it generalises. The Term White Working Class generalises, but it is not worthless.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
I quite like it. It sounds more positive and an identity to be worn with pride.
BAME sounds like it was dreamt up in a windowless office in Swindon.
I guess if it makes white people happy us minorities should just accept being othered with some insulting term that lumps us all together.
It is absurdly condescending and patronising, of course. But you can see why white people need an easy term to remember, because if they get it wrong, careers can end
Or they can start thinking of non-white people as individuals who all have different view points rather than some amorphous voter bloc that has a single viewpoint decides by a village elder with votes for sale if the elders are sufficiently greased.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
"Minorities" doesn't work as it is seen, on its own, as pejorative, "you're just a minority and always will be"
That's why they got rid of "ethnic minorities", and reversed it to the tortured "minority ethnic", which suggests they may be in the minority now but just you wait!
Now that's gone as well. They are running out of options. How about "THEM"?
Nothing pejorative about being in a minority. Personally think that ethnic minorities or minority ethnic is "othering" in a way that simply minorities is not.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
I quite like it. It sounds more positive and an identity to be worn with pride.
BAME sounds like it was dreamt up in a windowless office in Swindon.
I guess if it makes white people happy us minorities should just accept being othered with some insulting term that lumps us all together.
It is absurdly condescending and patronising, of course. But you can see why white people need an easy term to remember, because if they get it wrong, careers can end
"you can see why white people need an easy term to remember"
Jeeze. You're as bad as the rest of them, making crude categorizations based on race.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
"Minorities" doesn't work as it is seen, on its own, as pejorative, "you're just a minority and always will be"
That's why they got rid of "ethnic minorities", and reversed it to the tortured "minority ethnic", which suggests they may be in the minority now but just you wait!
Now that's gone as well. They are running out of options. How about "THEM"?
Nothing pejorative about being in a minority. Personally think that ethnic minorities or minority ethnic is "othering" in a way that simply minorities is not.
It absolutely is othering to label us as such. Suddenly individuals cease to exist and every person who isn't white thinks, acts and looks the same. No one would say it about white people.
Case in point, a working class white person is much more likely to have cultural affinity to a working class black person than they will for a middle class white person.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
"Minorities" doesn't work as it is seen, on its own, as pejorative, "you're just a minority and always will be"
That's why they got rid of "ethnic minorities", and reversed it to the tortured "minority ethnic", which suggests they may be in the minority now but just you wait!
Now that's gone as well. They are running out of options. How about "THEM"?
Nothing pejorative about being in a minority. Personally think that ethnic minorities or minority ethnic is "othering" in a way that simply minorities is not.
It is absolutely insulting and condescending. "A member of the minorities". "She's from the minorities." "A minority person is coming to visit". "Yes its a minority neighbourhood"
What does it even mean? It's practically useless and it sounds like something from apartheid.
Also it means whites are the majority, always. A MAJORITY person is here.
Dunno. I assume though we will eventually follow the Americans and use “POC” ie People Of Colour.
Doubt it, that grates to British palettes as well. Think it might be something like a simple "minorities" next.
Having one term for millions of people who have nothing in common, other than not being white, is not a good idea in my book
You can and do have white minorities (Irish, Polish, Romany etc), you can and do have minorities made up of multiple backgrounds (Muslims, Catholics, Trans etc).
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
The EU are using the GFA as a weapon. Pretty sure that peace treaties should not be used as that
The GFA is a complete pain in the ass for the EU. It prevents them from properly sealing their border, and they are having to bend their rules to accommodate it. The root cause of the problem, and the main threat to the GFA, is, of course, Brexit itself.
I didn't vote in the referendum but I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexiteer cause because the EU is a undemocratic mess.
The root problem is Blair who's to blame for both GFA and Scottish devolution
What's Scottish devolution got to do with Brexit?
Blair. The only problem with Brexit at the moment is GFA. Blair negotiated GFA. Blair devolved Scotland
Yes he created the sand in the rifts (not just NI), and it won't go away. Stupid. Brown was clearly the architect of foolishness in Scotland though.
Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet? Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?
The market would be suspended. Smarkets and Betdaq would reopen in a few days and Trump would head out to 1000, or possibly just instantly settle as a loser. Betfair would probably suspend the market for 4 years. Betfair are useless at stuff like that.
Wouldn't bets on Trump be voided if he died?
Bets that mention Trump by name in the header, most likely yes.
Bets on, for example, next President or Republican nominee, no.
Oh wow this line now appears in Betfair rules.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.
I thought betting on death was not acceptable. At least theoretically someone could lay a politician and then shoot them. 😕
Talk of a 50% and 80% reduction in customs paperwork.
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
I doubt that there is any agreement to be had. The lines on ECJ supervision are too red. We'll just start the long grind towards legal action by the EU for breach of the TCA which will, presumably, end in the imposition of trade tariffs by the EU and probably retaliatory tariffs by the UK.
How does that solve matters for the EU though?
Having neutral arbitration instead of one party determining it unilaterally is an eminently reasonable request. If they spark a trade war over such 100%ism then what do they gain from it? They lose everything they wanted and could have got once Article 16 is invoked.
I think if an agreement can be found on every other issue then arbitration instead of the ECJ won't be a deal-breaker. Better to get 50% of what you want than 0% of it for them.
Removing the oversight of the ECJ (which was, of course already agreed with the UK and which, in itself, can't justify the invokation of Article 16) would effectively mean the NI is no longer part of the single market. Perhaps the EU could give some ground on the lower-level details, but it's hard to see how they could give up on being the final arbiter of their own rules. And when two sides cannot reach a resolution, then a trade war is what you get. Nobody wants wars of any sort, but they still happen.
A problem is this: as long as NI is de facto in the SM, then it is being treated differently from the rest of the UK. There is an internal division within a single nation state called the UK. While the DUP will, of course, never tell what they actually want, they will tell you what they don't, and (unless they found it politically useful) being treated differently is something they don't want and will always be a lever for them to pull until the end of the world.
(BTW Why it's OK to the EU to have that internal division in the UK, but never to have internal divisions within the EU SM is not explained. But it matters to the EU more than peace in Ireland apparently)
Just got back from the booster vaccination plus flu jab (one in each arm), all very efficient, but apparently much delayed earlier by an anti-vaccination demo blocking the entrance. Can someone who follows anti-vaxxer social media explain to me why, if they're so fucking libertarian, they think it's right to stop people who do want it?
Not like you to swear Nick but I understand your utter frustration
Betting question. If you were to lay Trump for the WH today, and he died tomorrow, what happens to the bet? Would they partially settle? Would my money be tied up until I decide to back him at 1000 to cash out? Would I even be able to back him or would I be stuck waiting 37 months to collect?
The market would be suspended. Smarkets and Betdaq would reopen in a few days and Trump would head out to 1000, or possibly just instantly settle as a loser. Betfair would probably suspend the market for 4 years. Betfair are useless at stuff like that.
Wouldn't bets on Trump be voided if he died?
Bets that mention Trump by name in the header, most likely yes.
Bets on, for example, next President or Republican nominee, no.
Oh wow this line now appears in Betfair rules.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.
I thought betting on death was not acceptable. At least theoretically someone could lay a politician and then shoot them. 😕
Comments
District Judge Paul Goldspring told Westminster Magistrates Court he is considering a custodial sentence.
https://twitter.com/syalrajeev/status/1448317762087047170?s=20
Any prison sentence will result in an automatic recall petition, a sentence of 12 months or more will result in an automatic by-election.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1448322244355182594?s=20
Voters can recall an MP in the event of a conviction (as happened in Peterborough in June 2019 and Brecon & Radnorshire in August 2019). I expect such a recall petition would be quite likely in Leicester East, and would trigger a v interesting contest
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1448321666464067586?s=20
https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1448328732440203267?s=21
Refers GB as a "Hub" to NI
Refers to NI as "Third Country"
This will not be good enough for Frost el al
What's not to like?
I agree with the comment earlier that both her and Rob Roberts should just resign. I'm also surprised to note that Conor Burns has been given a front bench role again in the recent reshuffle, despite resigning last year after being found guilty by the Standards Committee of intimidating a constituent.
Parliament should find a way of getting rid of the really rotten eggs more expeditiously; it's too easy for them to hang on as 'independents'.
(Sarkozy and Chirac's ghost)
Other triggers being suspension from the House for a long period, and conviction over expenses.
We need a pivot away from Social Worker MPs.
The 24-year-old said he has Stage 2 Hodgkin lymphoma but that "the prognosis is a positive one" and will start treatment next week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58903956
Devil will be in the details but it really doesn't like the "generous" proposal promised. Simply doesn't seem good enough at all at first glance.
Though this no doubt is an opening proposal to then be negotiated from.
Opponents of the process further worried that MPs "in fear" of being recalled would increase the number of "automatons and lobby fodder" in the Commons
One, I like it says 'increase', acknowledging they already had those types. Two, I really doubt this of all things would affect the automatisation of our political classes (Brexit excepted).
I'm only human after all
Don't put the BAME on me!
I suspect I rather threw him by my question but I've been proved right...
That Atlantic article that I posted earlier shows a clear concern on the left that Trump may actually win fair and square in 2024. It is probably the first piece I have seen from a Democrat-leaning publication that a "fair" Trump win is possible in 2024, which suggests a mood shift.
As said though, I am not betting on this market at the moment, there are too many uncertainties around health of the candidates, events etc
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1448332931810922505
https://youtu.be/KhNBE6XOhTE
Is he the Messiah? Or just one of Johnson's naughty boys?
Having neutral arbitration instead of one party determining it unilaterally is an eminently reasonable request. If they spark a trade war over such 100%ism then what do they gain from it? They lose everything they wanted and could have got once Article 16 is invoked.
I think if an agreement can be found on every other issue then arbitration instead of the ECJ won't be a deal-breaker. Better to get 50% of what you want than 0% of it for them.
The Telegraph journalist did ask if there was any mechanism for independent arbitration and Maros Sefcovic indicated this would be part of the negotiations going forward but significantly did not reject it
It is time that both sides came together and moved forward with a new cooperative attitude and mutual respect and finally put behind us the remainers v leavers polarised and divisive mindsets
Maybe it is too much to hope for but the time is now to move on
Easy money - some people here have been slightly rude...
Also, if Galloway does stand, I doubt if Labour would start as strong favourite. If he doesn't they should. If opening odds were long for the Tories they could be worth a nibble.
The ECJ only has oversight over a very small part of the FTA.
Most of it is under a specific dispute resolution mechanism, which very notably the EuCo have not used, choosing instead to grandstand away in public.
That's why they got rid of "ethnic minorities", and reversed it to the tortured "minority ethnic", which suggests they may be in the minority now but just you wait!
Now that's gone as well. They are running out of options. How about "THEM"?
BAME sounds like it was dreamt up in a windowless office in Swindon.
The root problem is Blair who's to blame for both GFA and Scottish devolution
But who is indiginous in the UK? The Celts? Beaker Folk?
Black, Beaker, Coloured
BBC?
Surely the right way to talk about ethnicity/race* is either to be specific, so black, white, Asian, and say for groups being complete by saying for example, black and Asian. Or when wanting to desribe the opposite group to talk about them as non-white, non-black, non-Asian. All these attempts for polite, non-specific, euphemistic terms seem to hark back to terms we now consider offensive, or to be so vague as to be meaningless.
* Firstly check you aren't generalising without good reason, there really needs to be a good reason to even mention ethnicity.
Just to be clear I positively encourage everyone to be as rude as they like to me (Within the bounds of somewhat decent conversation)
ahahah
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Bets on, for example, next President or Republican nominee, no.
The whole thing is completely insulting.
Jeeze. You're as bad as the rest of them, making crude categorizations based on race.
Chasing 136 to win they were 123/1 after 15.5 overs.
They now need 7 from the last over with five wickets left.
Case in point, a working class white person is much more likely to have cultural affinity to a working class black person than they will for a middle class white person.
What does it even mean? It's practically useless and it sounds like something from apartheid.
Also it means whites are the majority, always. A MAJORITY person is here.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.
I thought betting on death was not acceptable. At least theoretically someone could lay a politician and then shoot them. 😕
(BTW Why it's OK to the EU to have that internal division in the UK, but never to have internal divisions within the EU SM is not explained. But it matters to the EU more than peace in Ireland apparently)
They are choking like the South Africans.