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If Starmer goes Reeves is by far the best alternative – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    No you're trying to cancel any opposite view because you realise just how ridiculous your own position is.
    I’m not trying to cancel your opposite view (its not completely opposite anyway) I’m merely accusing you of being rude.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    Saying that my five year old wanted to be a butterfly is outright bigotry and abuse?

    Take a break. You need to get some perspective.
  • Roger said:



    Having seen maybe ten minutes of the Conference or news about it Rachel Reeves might just be Labour's best kept secret. The header is the first time I've seen her in action and she looks impressive. Modern and with presence. It doesn't speak well for Starmer's judgement that he thought Anneliese Dodds was the answer to his most important first appointment when he had a genuine talent to call on.

    Nonetheless I've still got hopes for Starmer. With a better team around him he'll start to look the part. But if the proverbial bus does arrive she's got a couple of advantages he doesn't have......

    Firstly the contrast with the lumbering Johnson couldn't be sharper and she could do what Angela Raynor tried but with the guile and wit not to sound like a fishwife and secondly Len McClusky would resign

    Not sure Reeves has been a secret. I seem to recall her being tipped as a future leader by the Newstatesman back in the days of Gordon Brown.

    It is a mystery why she had been left off Starmer's bench. I suspect she was considered too rightwing Blairite for the cult in Momentum so he kept her away to try and placate them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    Saying that my five year old wanted to be a butterfly is outright bigotry and abuse?

    Take a break. You need to get some perspective.
    Nope. I’ve said all I have to say on the matter anyway. You knew exactly what you were doing and I expected better. That’s all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519

    How about we don't go round the same trans "debate" again.

    Perhaps esteemed posters shouldn't bait with the likes of “my daughter wants to transition to a butterfly hurr durr durr”
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    So I'm entitled to my beliefs but only you're entitled to tell me whether or not I can talk about them? When did you become the arbiter of what is and isn't allowed to be discussed?

    Mate, you've completely lost it over this subject. You're not an idiot and you can obviously see and probably agree that women don't have cocks but it also completely undermines the who self-ID transgenderism idea that equates sex and gender.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    Mate, they made a harmless joke which seems to have got under your skin for no good reason. Get over yourself.

    MaxPB saying women don’t have cocks is no different to feminists saying men don’t have cervixes. They’re also correct.

    It is not bigotry to question the whole trans thing, however much you don’t like the debate or wish to shut it down.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    Saying that my five year old wanted to be a butterfly is outright bigotry and abuse?

    Take a break. You need to get some perspective.
    Nope. I’ve said all I have to say on the matter anyway. You knew exactly what you were doing and I expected better. That’s all.
    Yes I had a light hearted exchange with another father on this site.

    Then you chose to make it ugly.
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    edited September 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    So I'm entitled to my beliefs but only you're entitled to tell me whether or not I can talk about them? When did you become the arbiter of what is and isn't allowed to be discussed?

    Mate, you've completely lost it over this subject. You're not an idiot and you can obviously see and probably agree that women don't have cocks but it also completely undermines the who self-ID transgenderism idea that equates sex and gender.
    I’m sorry but this is a laughable justification for making a “joke” designed to belittle.

    You knew exactly what you were doing. I’m not saying you can’t say it but I can still call you out on it, which I am doing.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    Saying that my five year old wanted to be a butterfly is outright bigotry and abuse?

    Take a break. You need to get some perspective.
    Nope. I’ve said all I have to say on the matter anyway. You knew exactly what you were doing and I expected better. That’s all.
    Yes I had a light hearted exchange with another father on this site.

    Then you chose to make it ugly.
    Nope. You’re the one who hid belittlement behind a “joke”. You can play innocent all you want.
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.

  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    How was that rude in comparison to you saying we were unbecoming, undermining and belittling because of talking about butterflies and young children. You threw the first stone.
    I most certainly did not. I’m calling out outright bigotry and abuse and you’re hiding behind “oh it was just a joke”.
    Saying that my five year old wanted to be a butterfly is outright bigotry and abuse?

    Take a break. You need to get some perspective.
    Nope. I’ve said all I have to say on the matter anyway. You knew exactly what you were doing and I expected better. That’s all.
    Yes I had a light hearted exchange with another father on this site.

    Then you chose to make it ugly.
    In a nutshell, it’s bizarre how this has escalated over one persons wilful misunderstanding.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    Mate, they made a harmless joke which seems to have got under your skin for no good reason. Get over yourself.

    MaxPB saying women don’t have cocks is no different to feminists saying men don’t have cervixes. They’re also correct.

    It is not bigotry to question the whole trans thing, however much you don’t like the debate or wish to shut it down.
    It was a joke designed to inflame and belittle. There really isn’t any more to it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    So I'm entitled to my beliefs but only you're entitled to tell me whether or not I can talk about them? When did you become the arbiter of what is and isn't allowed to be discussed?

    Mate, you've completely lost it over this subject. You're not an idiot and you can obviously see and probably agree that women don't have cocks but it also completely undermines the who self-ID transgenderism idea that equates sex and gender.
    I’m sorry but this is a laughable justification for making a “joke” designed to belittle.

    You knew exactly what you were doing. I’m not saying you can’t say it but I can still call you out on it, which I am doing.
    Except what you're doing is trying to prevent me from speaking my mind on this subject. It's not going to work. There's no scenario where I'll agree to the idea of "her dick" being a statement of fact. Women don't have cocks and they don't have balls. You know who does have them? Blokes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,992

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    I’m still being paid below minimum wage 🤔
    How do legal firms get away with that? (It is legal, isn't it).

    Unpaid overtime?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Love it!

    Until a few months ago my five year old was saying that when she grows up she wants to be a butterfly.
    You need to get her on butterfly hormone therapy. Just teach her to say they key words and the tavistock will hand them over!
    You know this stuff is very unbecoming of you. I expected better of both you and @Philip_Thompson.

    You should read our debate last night if you want to see what a rational and respectful debate on trans issues looks like.
    Trans issues are serious but that's no reason to not have a sense of humour.
    There’s no joke here - its just blatant undermining and belittlement. Remember @MaxPB happily describes transwomen as “men in dresses”.
    You say someone with a cock and bollocks can be a woman. It's ridiculous.
    There’s no need to be rude.
    🤷‍♂️

    Women don't have cocks. I think that's a pretty uncontroversial statement of biological fact. That you're contorting yourself into a position where the phrase "her dick" becomes a reality shows just how far off kilter you are and just how much reality you've had to suspend ti support this belief.
    You’re entitled to your beliefs and they are entirely valid but there’s no need to be inflammatory and belittling for the sake of it. You know exactly what you’re doing.
    So I'm entitled to my beliefs but only you're entitled to tell me whether or not I can talk about them? When did you become the arbiter of what is and isn't allowed to be discussed?

    Mate, you've completely lost it over this subject. You're not an idiot and you can obviously see and probably agree that women don't have cocks but it also completely undermines the who self-ID transgenderism idea that equates sex and gender.
    I’m sorry but this is a laughable justification for making a “joke” designed to belittle.

    You knew exactly what you were doing. I’m not saying you can’t say it but I can still call you out on it, which I am doing.
    Except what you're doing is trying to prevent me from speaking my mind on this subject. It's not going to work. There's no scenario where I'll agree to the idea of "her dick" being a statement of fact. Women don't have cocks and they don't have balls. You know who does have them? Blokes.
    And that’s okay. But I can still call you rude for being deliberately inflammatory - which I am doing and will continue to do.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    I’m still being paid below minimum wage 🤔
    How do legal firms get away with that? (It is legal, isn't it).

    Unpaid overtime?
    It isn’t legal but who’s going to know? I’m certainly not going to report it am I? But I will certainly make a special effort to highlight the issue if I get more senior.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    I’m still being paid below minimum wage 🤔
    How do legal firms get away with that? (It is legal, isn't it).

    Unpaid overtime?
    Unpaid overtime on an apprentice wage can amount to an hourly rate under £2/h it's one of those accepted forms of exploitative employment as the person who takes the job knows what they're getting into and wants the experience. It's still not right though.
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.

    Will be fascinating to see how the truck drivers situation plays out. A lot of firms have pulled the escalating pay rises as it is not helping them retain staff. They may as well be short-staffed and have a high pay bill instead of short-staffed and have a crippling pay bill.

    Then we have the 5,000 visas fiasco. Not enough visas to remotely fix the problem, and on such terms as to make "sod off" the response. So we will continue with big labour shortages in key industries and yes that does mean trouble ahead for Christmas.

    So far the political response has been poor. The Tories insist there is no crisis, there is no need for troops or visas, then promises troops and visas without actually doing so, and then please don't blame Brexit because actually Brexit allows us to fix this problem.

    And Labour? Caught in the headlights on free movement. My party is clear - we need free movement to ensure we have a big enough labour pool for transport, food, carers, hospitality, the NHS etc etc etc etc. Labour? Erm, arh, mumble. If you don't want to back free movement then flip the argument to the failure of the points-based migration system. But you can't just say "pass" or try and pivot the argument to a £15 minimum wage and palestine.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.

    Labour shortages is how the market works. It drives wage increases and makes the job more attractive. We are seeing exactly that with HGV drivers at the moment. They have been treated very badly for years but are suddenly getting higher wages, bonuses and a bit of respect. Labour surpluses do the reverse. If we are short of labour that is going to take to long to replace (eg lengthy training) we can still import those specialities.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.


    The whole retake control thing with brexit should see targeted migration based on need. So if it is not resolved by raising salaries we have the means to allow people access to our labour markets.

    Or that is what we are told.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Shapps says £25m of payments weren't DECLARED.
    Sounds a bit harsh to send in the OLR just for not posting or emailling a remittance advice ?

    Presumably the rail operating companies submit their budget or account to the Government, including their expected expenses and revenues as well as subsidies received. The government allocates the next tranche of subsidies on the basis of this budget. As South East Railways have under declared the budget received, the new allocations have been bigger than they should have been.

    The government suspects this wasn't a simple oversight on the part of the company. If it wasn't, this suggests fraud, which is a serious criminal offence.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    Thats theory. In practice wages in some jobs have risen beyond the point of financial viability. Once there is a sufficient labour pool driving wages will drop because they have to. No job sector can hold the economy to ransom because "we're underpaid so give us a 40% pay rise".

    It is odd though. When the firefighters wanted 40% what was the response? Or more recently when the nurses wanted 8%? As truckers should get and sustain a 40%+ pay rise I assume you support everyone in poorly paid jobs having the same?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in terms of its walled off labour market. That means significant wage hikes at the bottom and companies having to invest in training and productivity gains to increase output per employee. Where that isn't possible prices will go up. It will end up being the most redistributive policy this nation has seen from older rich people to the younger working poor.
  • Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.


    The whole retake control thing with brexit should see targeted migration based on need. So if it is not resolved by raising salaries we have the means to allow people access to our labour markets.

    Or that is what we are told.
    "targeted migration based on need" = state control of the labour market. Since when has the state, rather than the free market, been best at determining the needs of an economy?
  • Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.


    The whole retake control thing with brexit should see targeted migration based on need. So if it is not resolved by raising salaries we have the means to allow people access to our labour markets.

    Or that is what we are told.
    It was what we were told. And yet where we have not just need but a full-blown crisis the government refuses to allow targeted migration. Or even work visas (5k is a drop in the ocean).

    Why is that? Surely a "points-based migration scheme" wasn't code for "stop migrants"?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    @Gallowgate I used to work 60+ hours a week on a modest salary. Shortly before I left I received a significant payment from my firm, the result (we think) of a complaint made by a fellow graduate at a different regional office.

    My understanding was that the firm had been caught out by lower salaries in the regions and that the minimum wage is assessed on the same period in which you are paid (i.e. monthly). I was certainly paid more than it based on a my total 'annual' hours.





  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Shapps says £25m of payments weren't DECLARED.
    Sounds a bit harsh to send in the OLR just for not posting or emailling a remittance advice ?

    Hold on it's the other way round. How do the government not know who they have sent £25 million to ?
    Way I read it was the government had sent it in the past but that Southeastern were supposed to pay it back at some point

    Southeastern screwed up by not returning the money (and presumably put in an incorrect declaration in the process). The government caught it in an audit process.

    It seems a little harsh to terminate the franchise if it was an administrative oversight (I’d be surprised if Govia would try to steal a comparatively small amount) but I can absolutely see why the politics would mean the government would want to do that.
  • How about we don't go round the same trans "debate" again.

    Perhaps esteemed posters shouldn't bait with the likes of “my daughter wants to transition to a butterfly hurr durr durr”
    I've always been very clear with all my children that whatever identity they choose for themselves, I will love them unconditionally and support their choice in whatever way I can.
    Unless they become Tories. Then they're dead to me.
  • Mr. Max, ironic, considering how the age groups voted.
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in terms of its walled off labour market. That means significant wage hikes at the bottom and companies having to invest in training and productivity gains to increase output per employee. Where that isn't possible prices will go up. It will end up being the most redistributive policy this nation has seen from older rich people to the younger working poor.
    We're more likely to be replacing the young working poor with young unemployed poor once this has played out.
  • Good morning

    I have for the last couple of days been singing Rachel's praises and especially so after I had listened to her interview with Nick Robinson

    Her speech at conference was a breath of fresh air, notwithstanding that the promises of approx 170 billion spending was fantasy economics

    However, this is labour and having praised Andy Mcdonald for his work, he dramatically and very publicly resigned from the shadow cabinet apparently shocking and upsetting her

    Rachel was a glimpse of a saner labour party, but this conference has been a car crash

    They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS

    Let's be blunt, this labour party is in a civil war that needs a Kinnock moment and is presently unelectable

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited September 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    I’m still being paid below minimum wage 🤔
    How do legal firms get away with that? (It is legal, isn't it).

    Unpaid overtime?
    Unpaid overtime on an apprentice wage can amount to an hourly rate under £2/h it's one of those accepted forms of exploitative employment as the person who takes the job knows what they're getting into and wants the experience. It's still not right though.
    Every few weeks Guido usually finds MPs advertising unpaid internships.

    Yet another barrier to entry into these professions - working often months of long hours, in an expensive city, for little or no remuneration.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Although Germany’s election results leave Europe’s largest economy in a state of uncertainty, the big picture is already clear: Whoever the next chancellor will be, neither Olaf Scholz nor Armin Laschet will be able to provide the European Union with strong leadership.

    This is as much about their inherent political skills as the reality of the coalitions they will lead: made up of parties new to power, and — at the federal level — to each other. Internal friction and domestic politics will subtract from the chancellery’s focus and agency in Europe.

    To make matters worse, while it is no surprise that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure was going to impact the bloc’s leadership and coherence, her departure coincides with the run-up to French President Emmanuel Macron’s own elections next year.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-leadership-gap-olaf-scholz-chancellor-race/

    So you're saying that if Olaf becomes German Chancellor he won't be able to bring back summer for the European Union?
    Just let it go, @Philip_Thompson
  • R4 commentator Torsten Bell of Resolution Foundation pointing out that £15/hour is above the average wage rate.
  • Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Shapps says £25m of payments weren't DECLARED.
    Sounds a bit harsh to send in the OLR just for not posting or emailling a remittance advice ?

    Hold on it's the other way round. How do the government not know who they have sent £25 million to ?
    Way I read it was the government had sent it in the past but that Southeastern were supposed to pay it back at some point

    Southeastern screwed up by not returning the money (and presumably put in an incorrect declaration in the process). The government caught it in an audit process.

    It seems a little harsh to terminate the franchise if it was an administrative oversight (I’d be surprised if Govia would try to steal a comparatively small amount) but I can absolutely see why the politics would mean the government would want to do that.
    Southeastern's franchise should have been terminated years ago on the basis of their shitty service, especially in London. The best thing about my new cycling commute is not giving those fuckers a fucking penny.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,791
    edited September 2021

    and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS


    The Labour left have been proven right about every major foreign policy issue of the past 30 years so maybe we should listen to them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.


    The whole retake control thing with brexit should see targeted migration based on need. So if it is not resolved by raising salaries we have the means to allow people access to our labour markets.

    Or that is what we are told.
    It was what we were told. And yet where we have not just need but a full-blown crisis the government refuses to allow targeted migration. Or even work visas (5k is a drop in the ocean).

    Why is that? Surely a "points-based migration scheme" wasn't code for "stop migrants"?
    I didn’t think it was but it beggars belief when we have skills gaps or shortages little is being done to fill them gaps.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in terms of its walled off labour market. That means significant wage hikes at the bottom and companies having to invest in training and productivity gains to increase output per employee. Where that isn't possible prices will go up. It will end up being the most redistributive policy this nation has seen from older rich people to the younger working poor.
    We're more likely to be replacing the young working poor with young unemployed poor once this has played out.
    There's a million job vacancies in the UK and that number is going up for both skilled and unskilled labour. For years we've been papering over the cracks in our labour market with imported cheap workers. Now we can't.
  • Mr. Eabhal, welcome to PB.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234

    Heathener said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Can we please stop belittling gender fluidity on this site? The gammon dismissal of a serious issue with complexity and nuance is pretty revolting and off-putting. It demeans this place as a forum of polite and gentle intellectual debate.

    If I say it's offensive you'll accuse me of being woke but yes it is offensive.
    I've been keeping out of this recently, as it's so toxic and views will sadly not be changed.

    I will jut say this:

    I have known a fair few trans people. Two in particular were friends: one pre-transition, one post-transition. I see comments made about trans people on here, especially about how they're somehow a 'danger', and then think of those friends, and the bullying and sh*t they suffered just because they were, in some way, different.
    I don't know about others, but I have certainly changed my views over recent years on this as an issue. As indeed I did over gay marriage, and clearly a lot of other people did too.

    I am not sure where it all ends up, but some critical appraisal of gender norms, and how society polices those norms is not unwelcome.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being excoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise? I can't find it.

    And does setting a minimum wage at basically Median Wage level work?

    Median wage = £585 per hour. (1st Google answer)

    £15 per hour = £585 for 39 hour week.

    £585 per hour sounds quite a reasonable pay packet..,
  • Dura_Ace said:

    and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS


    The Labour left have been proven right about every major foreign policy issue of the past 30 years so maybe we should listen to them.
    I really don't like the left wing of the Labour Party, but this post is right on the money. They've certainly been right more than they've been wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,910
    Just pointing out that according to Oddschecker the odds for Reeves are all over the place - between 6/1 and 18/1. Hills are 16/1.

    For myself, I am keeping out. It's a combination of the Grand National and the Infant School Obstacle Race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being excoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise? I can't find it.

    And does setting a minimum wage at basically Median Wage level work?

    Median wage = £585 per hour. (1st Google answer)

    £15 per hour = £585 for 39 hour week.

    £585 per hour sounds quite a reasonable pay packet..,
    I know there’s a labour shortage in the UK at the moment, but if £585 an hour is now the median wage, I’ll be on the next plane to Heathrow!
  • Good morning

    I have for the last couple of days been singing Rachel's praises and especially so after I had listened to her interview with Nick Robinson

    Her speech at conference was a breath of fresh air, notwithstanding that the promises of approx 170 billion spending was fantasy economics

    However, this is labour and having praised Andy Mcdonald for his work, he dramatically and very publicly resigned from the shadow cabinet apparently shocking and upsetting her

    Rachel was a glimpse of a saner labour party, but this conference has been a car crash

    They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS

    Let's be blunt, this labour party is in a civil war that needs a Kinnock moment and is presently unelectable

    My early 30s working professional friends have been messaging me. All voted Labour in previous elections, all aghast at what they are seeing.

    "I want to vote for them. I want to throw everything I have in to support them. But they're shocking", and "heard a few shadow ministers on the news and thought they sounded fucking clueless"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,256
    edited September 2021

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Can we please stop belittling gender fluidity on this site? The gammon dismissal of a serious issue with complexity and nuance is pretty revolting and off-putting. It demeans this place as a forum of polite and gentle intellectual debate.

    If I say it's offensive you'll accuse me of being woke but yes it is offensive.
    I've been keeping out of this recently, as it's so toxic and views will sadly not be changed.

    I will jut say this:

    I have known a fair few trans people. Two in particular were friends: one pre-transition, one post-transition. I see comments made about trans people on here, especially about how they're somehow a 'danger', and then think of those friends, and the bullying and sh*t they suffered just because they were, in some way, different.
    I don't know about others, but I have certainly changed my views over recent years on this as an issue. As indeed I did over gay marriage, and clearly a lot of other people did too.

    I am not sure where it all ends up, but some critical appraisal of gender norms, and how society polices those norms is not unwelcome.

    Marriage is an entirely human construct. Gender isn't.

    What is interesting about the debate is the focus on when a woman is a woman. The much more important question is when is a man a man?

    My view is that as long as a person has the male sex organs, they are a man. If they don't have them, then they can identify as they like.
  • "They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS"....

    AUKUS should be rejected - hatched in secrecy with a fairly hard right Australian government, a deal that is unsupported by Asia's friendly nations, its potentially in breach of the NPT (as is the UK increase in nuclear warheads) and has maanged to sour relations with one of our closest partners in Europe... there's nothing to celebrate about AUKUS unless you own shares in a few defence companies or work in a specific shipyard...
  • "A nest of singing birds"
    New ‘conspiracy’ allegations which Alex Salmond is preparing to publish in a new book will have a ‘volcanic effect’ on the SNP, according to Jim Sillars.



    https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1442754712177156096?s=20

    Perhaps Salmond will have greater success in bookshops rather than at the ballot box?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    edited September 2021
    Heathener said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Can we please stop belittling gender fluidity on this site? The gammon dismissal of a serious issue with complexity and nuance is pretty revolting and off-putting. It demeans this place as a forum of polite and gentle intellectual debate.

    If I say it's offensive you'll accuse me of being woke but yes it is offensive.
    You need to work on your sense of humour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    Or it could just undermine international competitiveness, and mean that a lot of employment becomes unviable in labour intensive sectors of the economy. We don't know yet how the aftershocks of covid and Brexit will shake out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234

    "A nest of singing birds"
    New ‘conspiracy’ allegations which Alex Salmond is preparing to publish in a new book will have a ‘volcanic effect’ on the SNP, according to Jim Sillars.



    https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1442754712177156096?s=20

    Perhaps Salmond will have greater success in bookshops rather than at the ballot box?

    Unlikely!
  • FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
    As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement

    That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit

    You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Smile of the morning:

    https://babylonbee.com/news/new-york-restaurant-adds-voting-booth-so-they-can-allow-in-people-without-id

    ”NEW YORK, NY—In an effort to circumvent the city’s vaccine passport regulations, a midtown eatery has installed a voting booth and designated itself as a polling place so it can allow in anyone without any ID at all.

    “Mikey’s Eats did a brisk business on the day, as the front of the restaurant was crowded by protestors for/against vaccines, for/against vaccine mandates, and for/against vote fraud. The protestors frequently lost track of who they wanted to yell at, changed sides, and dejectedly walked into the restaurant to console themselves with the chef’s special avocado burger.

    “A lawyer for the ACLU was also present. He spent the day alternating between threatening the restaurant with lawsuits, congratulating them for their commitment to democracy, and openly weeping.


    :D

    And now, work to do. Laters PB.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited September 2021
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
    Please don't get me started on GPs or the NHS.

    I have previously been in a consultation with a GP where they and I together googled my symptoms* as they had no idea what to make of them.

    *nothing crazy - my pupils were different sizes following a fall.
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.


    The whole retake control thing with brexit should see targeted migration based on need. So if it is not resolved by raising salaries we have the means to allow people access to our labour markets.

    Or that is what we are told.
    It was what we were told. And yet where we have not just need but a full-blown crisis the government refuses to allow targeted migration. Or even work visas (5k is a drop in the ocean).

    Why is that? Surely a "points-based migration scheme" wasn't code for "stop migrants"?
    I didn’t think it was but it beggars belief when we have skills gaps or shortages little is being done to fill them gaps.
    Which is when we start asking some rather basic questions.
    1. Do government ministers have a grasp of the problem? I know they keep meeting industry people but seem to come out of every meeting contradicting them
    2. If they do, is the decision not to recruit because of an economic driver or a political one?
    3. If economic have the modelled what 40% wage hikes across chunks of the workforce does to prices?
    4. If political is the calculation that your client vote won't accept any migration yet because its "too soon after Brexit"?

    What we are seeing is exactly how I expected the much-lauded "points-based migration system" to work - badly. It is not the labour market making choices about who to bring in for economic reasons, it is ministers for political reasons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
    As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement

    That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit

    You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
    Oh, but they LOVE the moaning..... Don't take away their joy.

    Imagine if Scott_n_Paste had to spend his day retweeting about an open and honest party, instead of moaning about Boris.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in terms of its walled off labour market. That means significant wage hikes at the bottom and companies having to invest in training and productivity gains to increase output per employee. Where that isn't possible prices will go up. It will end up being the most redistributive policy this nation has seen from older rich people to the younger working poor.
    We're more likely to be replacing the young working poor with young unemployed poor once this has played out.
    There's a million job vacancies in the UK and that number is going up for both skilled and unskilled labour. For years we've been papering over the cracks in our labour market with imported cheap workers. Now we can't.
    I can't wait for our end state of being like Switzerland and paying £10 for a decaf Americano from starbux.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,992
    edited September 2021

    Although Germany’s election results leave Europe’s largest economy in a state of uncertainty, the big picture is already clear: Whoever the next chancellor will be, neither Olaf Scholz nor Armin Laschet will be able to provide the European Union with strong leadership.

    This is as much about their inherent political skills as the reality of the coalitions they will lead: made up of parties new to power, and — at the federal level — to each other. Internal friction and domestic politics will subtract from the chancellery’s focus and agency in Europe.

    To make matters worse, while it is no surprise that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure was going to impact the bloc’s leadership and coherence, her departure coincides with the run-up to French President Emmanuel Macron’s own elections next year.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-leadership-gap-olaf-scholz-chancellor-race/

    That's quite an interesting piece - Mujtaba Rahman has worked for both the UK Govt and the EuCo.

    In particular, there are three areas of European policy — a standoff with the U.K. over the Northern Ireland Protocol, a rule of law dispute with Hungary and Poland, and the need to reform the EU’s fiscal rulebook — that are crying out for a political steer.

    Not enough emphasis on the need for the EU to work on it's own internal problems, though.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Good morning

    I have for the last couple of days been singing Rachel's praises and especially so after I had listened to her interview with Nick Robinson

    Her speech at conference was a breath of fresh air, notwithstanding that the promises of approx 170 billion spending was fantasy economics

    However, this is labour and having praised Andy Mcdonald for his work, he dramatically and very publicly resigned from the shadow cabinet apparently shocking and upsetting her

    Rachel was a glimpse of a saner labour party, but this conference has been a car crash

    They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS

    Let's be blunt, this labour party is in a civil war that needs a Kinnock moment and is presently unelectable

    My early 30s working professional friends have been messaging me. All voted Labour in previous elections, all aghast at what they are seeing.

    "I want to vote for them. I want to throw everything I have in to support them. But they're shocking", and "heard a few shadow ministers on the news and thought they sounded fucking clueless"
    Your friends pay way more attention to party conferences than the average voter, thankfully for Labour.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.

    Labour shortages are very obviously a bad thing. If they can be resolved through raising salaries then all well and good. If they can't, then we are in a whole heap of trouble.

    Labour shortages is how the market works. It drives wage increases and makes the job more attractive. We are seeing exactly that with HGV drivers at the moment. They have been treated very badly for years but are suddenly getting higher wages, bonuses and a bit of respect. Labour surpluses do the reverse. If we are short of labour that is going to take to long to replace (eg lengthy training) we can still import those specialities.

    But we are not going to do that, are we? We have massive labour shortages in the care sector, for example. Those will not be filled domestically, but we are not allowing migrants to make up the shortfall.

  • "A nest of singing birds"
    New ‘conspiracy’ allegations which Alex Salmond is preparing to publish in a new book will have a ‘volcanic effect’ on the SNP, according to Jim Sillars.



    https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1442754712177156096?s=20

    Perhaps Salmond will have greater success in bookshops rather than at the ballot box?

    Get the popcorn ready.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Heathener said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Can we please stop belittling gender fluidity on this site? The gammon dismissal of a serious issue with complexity and nuance is pretty revolting and off-putting. It demeans this place as a forum of polite and gentle intellectual debate.

    If I say it's offensive you'll accuse me of being woke but yes it is offensive.
    Trans jokes seem to be about where gay jokes were back in the 1980s.
    Not the greatest place to be.
  • "They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS"....

    AUKUS should be rejected - hatched in secrecy with a fairly hard right Australian government, a deal that is unsupported by Asia's friendly nations, its potentially in breach of the NPT (as is the UK increase in nuclear warheads) and has maanged to sour relations with one of our closest partners in Europe... there's nothing to celebrate about AUKUS unless you own shares in a few defence companies or work in a specific shipyard...

    I do not accept that

    AUKUS has been welcomed across the Trans-Pacific and is addressing China's threats to those in the region

    France lost a contract so what, that happens in defence contracts regularly

    There is no reason why France and UK cannot work together on joint security and the defence of Europe


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
    Please don't get me started on GPs or the NHS.

    I have previously been in a consultation with a GP where they and I together googled my symptoms* as they had no idea what to make of them.

    *nothing crazy - my pupils were different sizes following a fall.
    Forget you - how were the schoolkids? And how did you manage to fall on them?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,746

    How about we don't go round the same trans "debate" again.

    Perhaps esteemed posters shouldn't bait with the likes of “my daughter wants to transition to a butterfly hurr durr durr”
    I've always been very clear with all my children that whatever identity they choose for themselves, I will love them unconditionally and support their choice in whatever way I can.
    Unless they become Tories. Then they're dead to me.
    Good morning from a holidaying OKC.
    On topic, what I said to my children was vote; recognise and appreciate those of your ancestors who fought for the right to do so.
    One of my aunts was one of those women who were in an early tranche of women voters. She always voted, although to my dismay, used to do so before going to volunteer at the local Conservative committee room.

    And, with Mr D, welcome, Mr. Eabhal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    edited September 2021

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
    As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement

    That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit

    You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
    We have done that already:

    "The basic thrust of the party’s position is therefore clear: to demonstrate how the version of Brexit that the government has chosen is disastrous for the UK in every respect, and to call for a different relationship in the immediate term – for example, membership of the Single Market"

    From: https://www.libdems.org.uk/eu-relationship

    Which is quite transparent in that it is seen as a way to convince the UK to Rejoin in the longer term. It was decided at conference that Rejoin would not be in the LD manifesto in the next GE, but rather small steps.

    I think that rather open and honest, don't you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    edited September 2021
    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
    We should have started closely aligned (SM & CU), and diverged slowly over many years (as appropriate and once someone had worked out what we wanted to do), as many argued at the time, including myself.

    We have tried to achieve a sharp break and will probably now find ourselves forced to realign slowly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
    Depends. A mate who is a GP said that turning off whatever the system was of instant messaging to the surgery at the weekend saved them hours as a non-trivial % of people who did so "got better" before Monday.

    But then there is blanket application of the rules. Certain conditions - and finding a lump in your breast is certainly one of them - are wholly inappropriate for online consultations.

    Oh and the last person I knew who had breast cancer (which I hope it is not for this friend) was the brother of a friend of mine.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.

    What destroyed the bargaining power of the low paid was the systematic dismantling of their ability to organise effectively and withdraw their labour.
  • FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
    As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement

    That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit

    You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
    Hang on, what is wrong with "continually bemoaning about Brexit" if the delivery of Brexit is as shit as it is? Do supporters of Brexit want it to work or not?

    We passed motions at conference calling for the restoration of FOM, renewed cultural ties, trade deals that work. You can't "join the single market" as that means EEA membership either via the EU or EFTA. We can do a bilateral deal like Switzerland giving us access.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
    Depends. A mate who is a GP said that turning off whatever the system was of instant messaging to the surgery at the weekend saved them hours as a non-trivial % of people who did so "got better" before Monday.

    But then there is blanket application of the rules. Certain conditions - and finding a lump in your breast is certainly one of them - are wholly inappropriate for online consultations.

    Oh and the last person I knew who had breast cancer (which I hope it is not for this friend) was the brother of a friend of mine.
    Yes but by your own anecdote the time and money wasted is minimal and the patient got seen quickly anyway.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
    We should have started closely aligned (SM & CU), and diverged slowly over many years (as appropriate and once someone had worked out what we wanted to do), as many argued at the time, including myself.

    We have tried to achieve a sharp break and will probably now find ourselves forced to realign slowly.
    Yes. And it may take a decade or two for all the undoubted, or projected benefits to materialise.

    Problem is, when looking at the benefits for "our generation" which I'm sure motivated much of the Brexit vote, the NPV is quite small (and you can't get to there from here).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being excoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise? I can't find it.

    And does setting a minimum wage at basically Median Wage level work?

    Median wage = £585 per hour. (1st Google answer)

    £15 per hour = £585 for 39 hour week.

    £585 per hour sounds quite a reasonable pay packet..,
    Even for you ? :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
    Please don't get me started on GPs or the NHS.

    I have previously been in a consultation with a GP where they and I together googled my symptoms* as they had no idea what to make of them.

    *nothing crazy - my pupils were different sizes following a fall.
    Forget you - how were the schoolkids? And how did you manage to fall on them?
    LOL - one may be left with a permanent limp otherwise all good.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,957
    Rachel Reeves was interview by Rachel Burdon on Radio 5 Live yesterday morning. Reeves walked straight into every trap Burdon set for her (Burdon mind, not Jeremy Paxman), and Reeves had no answers. Reeves was basically rubbish, I honestly think I could have defended Labour's policies and positions better than she did. If Reeves is the best bet after Starmer then Labour are in even deeper trouble than I had realised.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
    Please don't get me started on GPs or the NHS.

    I have previously been in a consultation with a GP where they and I together googled my symptoms* as they had no idea what to make of them.

    *nothing crazy - my pupils were different sizes following a fall.
    Basic neuro-anatomy and cranial nerve examination.

    Bur I am not surprised, I have often found medical students at finals incapable of this basic examination and interpretation of findings.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
    Depends. A mate who is a GP said that turning off whatever the system was of instant messaging to the surgery at the weekend saved them hours as a non-trivial % of people who did so "got better" before Monday.

    But then there is blanket application of the rules. Certain conditions - and finding a lump in your breast is certainly one of them - are wholly inappropriate for online consultations.

    Oh and the last person I knew who had breast cancer (which I hope it is not for this friend) was the brother of a friend of mine.
    Yes but by your own anecdote the time and money wasted is minimal and the patient got seen quickly anyway.
    It was a schedule 15 minute consultation from the GP. Which he then repeated two hours later.

    15 minutes here, 15 minutes there and pretty soon you're talking real time...
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072
    Heathener said:

    My two-year is very fluid. She identifies as a dinosaur, cat, fox, train and a car - all inside the space of a few minutes.

    Can we please stop belittling gender fluidity on this site? The gammon dismissal of a serious issue with complexity and nuance is pretty revolting and off-putting. It demeans this place as a forum of polite and gentle intellectual debate.

    If I say it's offensive you'll accuse me of being woke but yes it is offensive.
    Perhaps you’d have more moral higher ground if you didn’t use puerile, offensive terms like gammon. A term recently deemed offensive by Ofcom, among others, or is that an acceptable term as it’s an acceptable prejudice ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Shapps says £25m of payments weren't DECLARED.
    Sounds a bit harsh to send in the OLR just for not posting or emailling a remittance advice ?

    Hold on it's the other way round. How do the government not know who they have sent £25 million to ?
    It's all a bit strange but if you are running a franchise and you are supposed to pay the gov £25m and don't then that's all a bit rum.
  • "They demand nationalising energy as Starmer says no, they promote a £10 minimum wage only for Starmer to be photographed at a demonstration demanding £15, Starmer comes down against Rosie Duffield on the trans issue, and amazingly by 70%/30% reject AUKUS"....

    AUKUS should be rejected - hatched in secrecy with a fairly hard right Australian government, a deal that is unsupported by Asia's friendly nations, its potentially in breach of the NPT (as is the UK increase in nuclear warheads) and has maanged to sour relations with one of our closest partners in Europe... there's nothing to celebrate about AUKUS unless you own shares in a few defence companies or work in a specific shipyard...

    Taiwan, India and Japan have all backed AUKUS and South Korea is neutral.

    Perhaps by "Asia's friendly nations" you meant North Korea, which is indeed opposed?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
    Depends. A mate who is a GP said that turning off whatever the system was of instant messaging to the surgery at the weekend saved them hours as a non-trivial % of people who did so "got better" before Monday.

    But then there is blanket application of the rules. Certain conditions - and finding a lump in your breast is certainly one of them - are wholly inappropriate for online consultations.

    Oh and the last person I knew who had breast cancer (which I hope it is not for this friend) was the brother of a friend of mine.
    Yes but by your own anecdote the time and money wasted is minimal and the patient got seen quickly anyway.
    Indeed as an urgent priority! Which is the purpose of triage.
  • IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
    We should have started closely aligned (SM & CU), and diverged slowly over many years (as appropriate and once someone had worked out what we wanted to do), as many argued at the time, including myself.

    We have tried to achieve a sharp break and will probably now find ourselves forced to realign slowly.
    If memory serves me correctly that's the form of prospective Leave that was attractive to Alastair Meeks before the referendum.

    If I had to guess, I'd say we'll develop greater depth to the TCA and closer collaboration over time but it might take the current generation of politicians to leave office.
  • IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
    We should have started closely aligned (SM & CU), and diverged slowly over many years (as appropriate and once someone had worked out what we wanted to do), as many argued at the time, including myself.

    We have tried to achieve a sharp break and will probably now find ourselves forced to realign slowly.
    We haven't even done that. There has been no "sharp break" in reality, only in practice. Our standards remain their standards. Their practices remain our practices. We could remove the artificial barriers we have imposed very easily and very quickly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I see that SKS is being unexcoriated by his far left for not keeping a promise on a "£15 per hour" minimum wage.

    Where was this promise?

    And does setting a minimum wage at about 40% (rough number) of Median Wage work?

    You know, if it is ever going to work it would be now when the labour market is incredibly tight and the supply of labour is more restricted than it was. Employers would need to focus on getting more out of their more expensive staff, even if it involved training them.

    I think that you need to be very careful with policies such as the NMW so as not to overdo it and cause unnecessary unemployment but you should also take advantage of situations such as we have right now. Doing so will transfer more of the burden of financing the low paid from in work benefits to where it belongs, on those that employ them. It is an opportunity to reduce inequality and reduce government spending. I am not sure about £15 but an increase substantially beyond inflation and well over £10 makes sense.
    Thankfully the market is doing a good job at the moment, of lifting many people above the minimum wage without needing any government intervention.
    True, But I read on here that labour shortages are a bad thing. Or something.
    They are a bad thing. Do you think the current pay rises to cover labour shortages will last once the labour pool rebalances?

    If you want a sustained rise in pay and conditions you need a balanced labour market. Otherwise it is far too easy to reverse once alternate labour is available.
    Actually yes, I do. Firstly wages are sticky downwards as economists say and secondly the ending of free movement means that the pool of labour is more fixed than it has been for the last 20 years. We will still need to import people with skills we lack (including, shamefully, stealing nurses and doctors from poorer countries) but the mass importation of labour we have seen in recent years destroying any bargaining power for the low paid is over. Thank god for that.

    There will be disruptions and dislocations as a result, we have been very hooked on cheap labour, but over time this will prove to be a very positive policy for the UK driving training, productivity and a reduction in inequality.
    We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in terms of its walled off labour market. That means significant wage hikes at the bottom and companies having to invest in training and productivity gains to increase output per employee. Where that isn't possible prices will go up. It will end up being the most redistributive policy this nation has seen from older rich people to the younger working poor.
    We're more likely to be replacing the young working poor with young unemployed poor once this has played out.
    There's a million job vacancies in the UK and that number is going up for both skilled and unskilled labour. For years we've been papering over the cracks in our labour market with imported cheap workers. Now we can't.
    I can't wait for our end state of being like Switzerland and paying £10 for a decaf Americano from starbux.
    It's almost as likely to be 1970s Britain redux.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,236
    Children 12-15 are only getting one dose of Pfiser. I've just discovered that 16- 17 3/4 year olds are also only getting one dose (previously it was assumed two).

    Does this mean that children will not get a vaccine certificate? If so they will therefore be classed
    as unvaccinated by other nations for purposes of international travel. The French rules, which are typical, are below:

    "The French Government recognises the following vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson (the vaccines recognised by the European Medical Agency). “Fully vaccinated” is defined by the completion of a vaccination schedule, specifically:

    1 week after the second dose of Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca"

    Is anyone in the know about this? I've not seen this issue reported anywhere. If the government has overlooked this (surely not) then it is going to cause issues and will dissuade some children from getting vaccinated in the first place because it takes away the big plus of being classed as vaccinated for international travel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    Hold on, the GPs have made these rules for themselves and have been resisting DoH forcing them to turn back the clock to all in person appointments. GPs are the worst. It's time to get rid of the concept of a GP surgery.
    Please don't get me started on GPs or the NHS.

    I have previously been in a consultation with a GP where they and I together googled my symptoms* as they had no idea what to make of them.

    *nothing crazy - my pupils were different sizes following a fall.
    Basic neuro-anatomy and cranial nerve examination.

    Bur I am not surprised, I have often found medical students at finals incapable of this basic examination and interpretation of findings.
    Is it just that there's always some out of the way non-typical condition that GPs might not have come across or is it something more fundamental in the training?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    Great post.

    On one of your points, a friend of mine found a lump in her breast. Phoned the GP - I have a lump in my chest. GP - we need an online triage with the doctor. My friend - what the **** will an online triage with the doctor do? Will he say oh well that's fine? GP - them's the rules.

    So she had the online meeting and was duly summoned in to see the doctor in person two hours later.

    What a monumental waste of resources. Cui Bono?
    tbf I think that online consultations are now widely available is one of the upsides to come out of the pandemic, and have potential to save both patients and the NHS considerable amounts of time. My checkup for a stomach condition usually consists of a trip to Southampton (car, bus, boat, bus, walk, bus, walk) and a scheduled 20-minute appointment that basically consists of "how are things going?", "OK", "let us know if anything changes", ends, with ten more minutes of talking around the houses since a physical appointment where you get shown the door after five minutes is psychologically difficult. Similarly people are getting seen for routine matters quickly online and GPs are able to give out speedy advice without having the sniffling patient sitting in their office.

    The problems are elsewhere - the load of covid patients on hospitals, the reduction in capacity due to all the precautions, the huge backlog, the cancellation of many less critical procedures, and, in a few cases, inability to meet serious demands such as the recently reported cancelled chemo treatment sessions.
    Depends. A mate who is a GP said that turning off whatever the system was of instant messaging to the surgery at the weekend saved them hours as a non-trivial % of people who did so "got better" before Monday.

    But then there is blanket application of the rules. Certain conditions - and finding a lump in your breast is certainly one of them - are wholly inappropriate for online consultations.

    Oh and the last person I knew who had breast cancer (which I hope it is not for this friend) was the brother of a friend of mine.
    Yes but by your own anecdote the time and money wasted is minimal and the patient got seen quickly anyway.
    Indeed as an urgent priority! Which is the purpose of triage.
    It was the third appointment she had including the description of her symptoms to the receptionist.

    Is that really the most efficient way?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The vague mood music I got from reading about the rail franchise thing that wasn't explicitly stated was that this was possibly systematic by the Franchise group and that all their financial dealings with the government are now suspect and will be re audited.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    The "temporary" pre-Xmas extra visa programme is going to get extended, probably several times, and possibly expanded, isn't it?
  • IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, an American perspective, which is obviously because of Brexit…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-24/inflation-and-supply-shortages-mean-a-return-of-empty-shelves-and-panic-buying

    ”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.

    “But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.

    “Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”

    Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.

    Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.

    My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.

    And you know what, that's OK.

    No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
    That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.

    No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.

    And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.

    I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
    I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done.
    I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
    They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
    BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
    Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.

    (Which is not to say a serious Brexit wasn't possible in another universe, but that Brexit wouldn't have won the referendum or subsequent election)
    We should have started closely aligned (SM & CU), and diverged slowly over many years (as appropriate and once someone had worked out what we wanted to do), as many argued at the time, including myself.

    We have tried to achieve a sharp break and will probably now find ourselves forced to realign slowly.
    We haven't even done that. There has been no "sharp break" in reality, only in practice. Our standards remain their standards. Their practices remain our practices. We could remove the artificial barriers we have imposed very easily and very quickly.
    now that would make an interesting Labour Party conference resolution..........
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