I do not know where people get the energy from to care deeply and passionately about so many things. The trans debate is one that has largely passed me by. I know that I should probably know more about it but I just don't have the bandwidth. There's too much else to think about.
Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm.
I am also sure there is a lot more to it than that: I just do not have the time or the energy to explore it further. That may reflect badly on me, but I suspect I am in the large majority. And therein lies Labour's problem on this.
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
Those high marginal income tax rates, can and do have a big effect on work patterns and incentives.
Chancellor Rishi needs to find a way of smoothing them out.
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
Those high marginal income tax rates, can and do have a big effect on work patterns and incentives.
Chancellor Rishi needs to find a way of smoothing them out.
And add graduate "tax" payments too where appropriate, as per the enlightening discussion here yesterday.
I looked on Google this morning and it showed that our local BP filling station was 'busier than usual'. That could only mean one thing, so off I went.
After around 15 minutes queuing I now have a full tank of E10 petrol. Happy days!
The chap behind the counter said that they'd been busy since 5:30 this morning, and he expected that they'd be out of fuel this afternoon, with no more due for 2 or 3 days.
Interestingly, the person who had used the pump before me had put exactly £40 worth of diesel into his tank, rather than filling right up. Old habits die hard.
I now have 400 miles range - more than enough to reach the Llandudno branch of Asda.
Best of luck to everyone else on the lookout for fuel.
Forgive me, but how can you Google to find out if a petrol station is busy? This would be v useful to know.
I looked up the filling station and the Google result included a bar chart of typical busy levels. This included a red 'live' bar for the current time, which was well above trend. I have no idea where they get the data from, but very useful.
In contrast, the live bar for the local Asda was through the floor, therefore no fuel.
I looked on Google this morning and it showed that our local BP filling station was 'busier than usual'. That could only mean one thing, so off I went.
After around 15 minutes queuing I now have a full tank of E10 petrol. Happy days!
The chap behind the counter said that they'd been busy since 5:30 this morning, and he expected that they'd be out of fuel this afternoon, with no more due for 2 or 3 days.
Interestingly, the person who had used the pump before me had put exactly £40 worth of diesel into his tank, rather than filling right up. Old habits die hard.
I now have 400 miles range - more than enough to reach the Llandudno branch of Asda.
Best of luck to everyone else on the lookout for fuel.
Forgive me, but how can you Google to find out if a petrol station is busy? This would be v useful to know.
I looked up the filling station and the Google result included a bar chart of typical busy levels. This included a red 'live' bar for the current time, which was well above trend. I have no idea where they get the data from, but very useful.
In contrast, the live bar for the local Asda was through the floor, therefore no fuel.
I don't like to diss a decent man, but he is either innumerate or he hasn't bothered to find out what the average (arithmetic mean) wage is.
He's well and truly fallen into a trap of his own making. I'll admit I don't know the exact minimum wage figure. The problem is that £15 does not pass the sniff test to me - in other words, it seems suspiciously high, enough to sound warning bells.
In the past there was the "price of a loaf of bread" test. The "minimum wage rate" test seems something most senior politicians should pass. But I bet many, on all sides, would fail.
Maybe the *Median* hourly wage got into the debate? Which is over £15 an hour -
At which point we can have a nice long discussion on median, mode and average. And the wage rate curve, where lots earn quite little, but the average is distorted.....
On the last point, I thought HYUFD and kjh had already done that. Several times. To the extent, I believe, that kjh ended up leaving* the country
*temporarily
(also, pedantically, they're all averages, as is the mean)
I posted before the fun/horrifying fact that the average (modal) age of death up until the early 1960s in this country was 0. Which is good example of mode, mean and median being quite different.
Yes indeed. After we have solved the "true" level of wages, we can trivially get the correct answers to Palestine, BREXIT, Northern Ireland, the Schleswig Holstein Problem.....
Did not Mr Gove, reputed to be one of the more intelligent members of the Cabinet, once demand that every pupil should be better than average? Or was he talking about them being better in the future than the average today?
I believe he was referring to the way that, in many state schools, when a pupil reaches (or is above) a certain level of attainment, they are often left to coast, while the teachers concentrate on those falling behind. This is because teachers have limited amounts of time - being unable to be in more than one place at a time.
If you could solve that, you would solve a vast chunk of the education inequality in this country.
Quantum teachers, maybe?
Isn't this why most schools put pupils in different sets based on ability? I haven't noticed this phenomenon at my kids' schools nor do I recall it from my own schooling. If anything, I think it's kids of average ability who tend to be the victims of our under-resourced education system.
Setting can help - for some things. At this point all the PB teachers will appear, rulers in hand....
I saw this first hand with my eldest. She and the other high achievers in her primary were pretty left to their own devices once they got to 65% on various assessments - using 65 as a short hand for "high B plus". This was a Primary which was very well thought of.
I was told by the teachers that this was how it was, and that was all they could do - staffing levels etc.
The difference with my youngest, when she attended the Local Free School primary was quite startling. The Head was specifically driving for a "private school" level of attainment. There was always more - on the lines of "well, now you've finished all of that, would you like to try some stuff from next year?"... Not flogging them on, but *offering* more....
The Head was not exactly the favourite of quite alot of people....
65% is a fail as far as I'm concerned.
Imagine you are a teacher. 30 in the class. If you are really lucky you have a teaching assistant.
Children are divided into tables - 5-6 on each. They are grouped by ability, either formally or by the reality of the situation. Usually formally.
You run through todays maths lesson on the big board, Then the children get to do some work themselves, using the methods.
Which tables do you end up at, helping them out?
Meanwhile, on the top table, the children have finished way ahead of the rest of the class. If you are lucky, they are playing tic-tac-toe or even looking ahead in their books....
Or, as seems necessary, revising their British English.
I do not know where people get the energy from to care deeply and passionately about so many things. The trans debate is one that has largely passed me by. I know that I should probably know more about it but I just don't have the bandwidth. There's too much else to think about.
Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm.
I am also sure there is a lot more to it than that: I just do not have the time or the energy to explore it further. That may reflect badly on me, but I suspect I am in the large majority. And therein lies Labour's problem on this.
"Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm."
Blatantly obviously true. How is this even a question? Total madness. The boy in "The Emperor's New Clothes" springs to mind.
I looked on Google this morning and it showed that our local BP filling station was 'busier than usual'. That could only mean one thing, so off I went.
After around 15 minutes queuing I now have a full tank of E10 petrol. Happy days!
The chap behind the counter said that they'd been busy since 5:30 this morning, and he expected that they'd be out of fuel this afternoon, with no more due for 2 or 3 days.
Interestingly, the person who had used the pump before me had put exactly £40 worth of diesel into his tank, rather than filling right up. Old habits die hard.
I now have 400 miles range - more than enough to reach the Llandudno branch of Asda.
Best of luck to everyone else on the lookout for fuel.
Forgive me, but how can you Google to find out if a petrol station is busy? This would be v useful to know.
I looked up the filling station and the Google result included a bar chart of typical busy levels. This included a red 'live' bar for the current time, which was well above trend. I have no idea where they get the data from, but very useful.
In contrast, the live bar for the local Asda was through the floor, therefore no fuel.
Clever!
I wonder also if the Traffic layer in Google Maps might be useful, but it's not so focussed!
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
It's not binary, catastrophe vs no catastrophe. We have some level of catastrophe on our hands regardless, but there's still things we can do to mitigate, prepare etc. I expect a good few centuries of The Road/Dredd type living conditions before the absolute end.
One Green of my acquaintance was quite horrified when I pointed out that, at a certain level of destruction/catastrophe, trillions would be dumped into carbon capture.
35 Gigatons, say at $100 dollars a ton
3.5 trillion dollars. A few percent of world GDP....
And if you did it on that scale cost would drop. Hard to say where the floor is..... maybe 5x?
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
I've never thought of it in the context of 50% more days off. That really does make it sound attractive.
The downside is the stupid pile of emails that have filled your inbox on your non-working day, which puts you on the back foot the next morning.
Which reminds me that I'll have two weeks' worth to wade through next Monday morning.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
Those high marginal income tax rates, can and do have a big effect on work patterns and incentives.
Chancellor Rishi needs to find a way of smoothing them out.
And add graduate "tax" payments too where appropriate, as per the enlightening discussion here yesterday.
From an entirely selfish perspective Edward Heath's greatest innovation was the three-day week. The factory where I toiled went from 4.5 8-hour days to 3 10-hour days - a 20% reduction in hours leading to a 10% reduction in take-home pay and a 40% reduction in bus fares. The upside was a 4-day weekend. Thanks Ted. You're a legend.
If I were Labour or the Lib Dems, I would pledge that they would commit an increase of 100% in the resources available for people with gender dysphoria to make sure they the help they need. Combine it with an increase in funding for shelters of vulnerable people (including women). Then, whenever asked a question about trans rights, they can say they oppose all forms of abuse and that they have committed additional funding to help those who need help. And avoid being drawn on any other specifics.
I assume that won't be very much in £ terms in the grand scheme of things, while aiming to neutralise an issue that will not win them the new voters they need.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
It's not binary, catastrophe vs no catastrophe. We have some level of catastrophe on our hands regardless, but there's still things we can do to mitigate, prepare etc. I expect a good few centuries of The Road/Dredd type living conditions before the absolute end.
One Green of my acquaintance was quite horrified when I pointed out that, at a certain level of destruction/catastrophe, trillions would be dumped into carbon capture.
35 Gigatons, say at $100 dollars a ton
3.5 trillion dollars. A few percent of world GDP....
And if you did it on that scale cost would drop. Hard to say where the floor is..... maybe 5x?
Science is very good at fixing the problems created by science.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
Yeah, I looked at this at noticed that a lot of people who take the 20% cut for a four-day week end up working a bit on Friday anyway. We're not quite there yet.
My approach at this point? Stay full-time but use Friday for easy stuff like 1:1s and catch-ups, plus planning for week thereafter. Office is much quieter so that gets easier all the time.
In the longer-term I think "traditional" work may move to a 3-4 day a week pattern, with the balance of the economy being taken up by leisure time and leisure/creative industry expansion. Humans will do human-human interaction jobs at higher wages, because we want to interact with other people - not robots.
If it sounds outlandish it's worth noting that Saturday morning working was normal 40-50 years ago and there's been a steady trend of reduction in average working hours since.
I've noticed it at my work - lots of people are moving to 80-90% FTE contracts, and I intend to do so as well in a few years. A 20% pay cut for 50% more free time is a no brainer, especially if you're in the £50-65k or £100-125k brackets.
At £65k you take home £43k, at £52k you get £36.6k - so a 14% reduction in take home for 80% pay.
At £125k you take £67.4k, £100k is £60.2k, so a 10.7% cut in take home for an extra day off.
Those high marginal income tax rates, can and do have a big effect on work patterns and incentives.
Chancellor Rishi needs to find a way of smoothing them out.
And add graduate "tax" payments too where appropriate, as per the enlightening discussion here yesterday.
From an entirely selfish perspective Edward Heath's greatest innovation was the three-day week. The factory where I toiled went from 4.5 8-hour days to 3 10-hour days - a 20% reduction in hours leading to a 10% reduction in take-home pay and a 40% reduction in bus fares. The upside was a 4-day weekend. Thanks Ted. You're a legend.
One of my earliest political memories was someone with a stall with the sign "Vote for Ted 4 days in bed."
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
This is an area I know nothing about too, I hope you're right. It just seems worrying, if anyone does understand this better it'd be good to know what's going on.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
Will it get worse in the coming months as demand goes up?
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
What's going to happen then when everyone turns the boilers on for central heating in a few weeks time?
Is the spot price going to go even higher? Or is that seasonality already accounted for?
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Yes, and McDonalds could afford to pay more, even if it meant putting up the prices of some of their very cheap product or even, dare I say it, reducing their profits.
This attack on Starmer is a red herring. It's perfectly consistent to campaign for a £15 per hour wage at McDonalds while thinking that £15 an hour is too high for a generic minimum wage right now.
And anyway, as we all know, it's the nature of collective bargaining that you "demand" more than you realistically know you'll achieve. Current pay £10; we demand £15; we end up with £12.50. Job done.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
Meh, think I've been in a McDonalds once in the past two years.
Actually twice as there was one between the office and the hotel in Bulgaria so we went once when working very late (the Bulgarian one didn't have self service tills).
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
What's going to happen then when everyone turns the boilers on for central heating in a few weeks time?
Is the spot price going to go even higher? Or is that seasonality already accounted for?
It will get worse before it gets better though there's already some element of pricing in tomorrow's shortage.
We had a decade to stop using oil and gas for electricity generation and did nothing. The UK and other countries across Europe are going to pay a very high price this year and next.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
If I’m reading that ^ice data correctly, futures over the next 6 months are also ~220p/therm, not just spot. Prices look like they’re going to stay high all winter. I’m an amateur though, I’ll happily defer to anyone with industry knowledge.
”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.
“But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.
“Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”
Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.
Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.
My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.
And you know what, that's OK.
No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.
No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.
And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.
I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done. I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement
That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit
You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
It's an interesting point, which goes beyond the Lib Dems. Is there a workable version of Brexit that doesn't involve realigning with the EU, similar to the EEA? Because that's been rejected by Brexiteers for reasons that are important to them. It's much easier to declare the whole situation a mess than to find solutions to it. Brexiteers presumably deflect , blame-shift and devise unrealistic solutions because they don't have real solutions themselves.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
This is an area I know nothing about too, I hope you're right. It just seems worrying, if anyone does understand this better it'd be good to know what's going on.
Also not an expert, but found this one the other day:
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Yes, and McDonalds could afford to pay more, even if it meant putting up the prices of some of their very cheap product or even, dare I say it, reducing their profits.
This attack on Starmer is a red herring. It's perfectly consistent to campaign for a £15 per hour wage at McDonalds while thinking that £15 an hour is too high for a generic minimum wage right now.
And anyway, as we all know, it's the nature of collective bargaining that you "demand" more than you realistically know you'll achieve. Current pay £10; we demand £15; we end up with £12.50. Job done.
Why is it perfectly consistent to pick on a random big company.
Why don't they attack Amazon, £10 an hour, £12 at night, double for any overtime.
And don't forget stewards at this conference are on £9.50 an hour even though Labour were originally campaigning for £10.
Labour are currently economically illiterate. Which means I now have nowhere to vote for the first time as every party is currently f**ing awful with no redeeming features.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Yes, and McDonalds could afford to pay more, even if it meant putting up the prices of some of their very cheap product or even, dare I say it, reducing their profits.
This attack on Starmer is a red herring. It's perfectly consistent to campaign for a £15 per hour wage at McDonalds while thinking that £15 an hour is too high for a generic minimum wage right now.
And anyway, as we all know, it's the nature of collective bargaining that you "demand" more than you realistically know you'll achieve. Current pay £10; we demand £15; we end up with £12.50. Job done.
How do you know McDonalds could afford to pay £15 per hour? They're competing against other minimum wage jobs, why would their paying higher than average wages while competing with a minimum wage sector be affordable?
McDonald's isn't really a large business - its a brandname shared by a very large collection of small businesses. There's no guarantee those small businesses can afford £15.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Yes it was the big "secret" when I worked there that people should ask for a special (eg no pickles on a Big Mac) to get it made fresh. Now everything is made fresh to order.
At busy times the difference was a matter of seconds but I suppose the saving of not having the till jockeys (or not as many) makes the new system worthwhile.
For local politics nerds there are by-elections today. Broadlands has 2 wards up with one a double vacancy. So that's 3 people to be elected. Should be 3 Con holds.
I do not know where people get the energy from to care deeply and passionately about so many things. The trans debate is one that has largely passed me by. I know that I should probably know more about it but I just don't have the bandwidth. There's too much else to think about.
Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm.
I am also sure there is a lot more to it than that: I just do not have the time or the energy to explore it further. That may reflect badly on me, but I suspect I am in the large majority. And therein lies Labour's problem on this.
Of all the stupid things the party has embraced in the post Blair era it strikes me as quite the most idiotic. However, they have become a party which embraces factions precisely at the same time as they have lost contact with the mainstream of public opinion. It seems they are unable to function as a party without a cause. It doesn't help that the plethora of factions are often in conflict with each other. No wonder they're contantly tearing themselves apart. As a Conservative I do find it a puzzle.
I mean how on earth have they reached a state where the Labour MP for Canterbury was rebuked by her leader for saying only women have a cervix. FFS! She's too scared to go to the conference and this is his considered comment!
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
It's not binary, catastrophe vs no catastrophe. We have some level of catastrophe on our hands regardless, but there's still things we can do to mitigate, prepare etc. I expect a good few centuries of The Road/Dredd type living conditions before the absolute end.
One Green of my acquaintance was quite horrified when I pointed out that, at a certain level of destruction/catastrophe, trillions would be dumped into carbon capture.
35 Gigatons, say at $100 dollars a ton
3.5 trillion dollars. A few percent of world GDP....
And if you did it on that scale cost would drop. Hard to say where the floor is..... maybe 5x?
Science is very good at fixing the problems created by science.
Less good however at applying the precautionary principle so that we don't get into such a mess in the first place.
If I were Labour or the Lib Dems, I would pledge that they would commit an increase of 100% in the resources available for people with gender dysphoria to make sure they the help they need. Combine it with an increase in funding for shelters of vulnerable people (including women). Then, whenever asked a question about trans rights, they can say they oppose all forms of abuse and that they have committed additional funding to help those who need help. And avoid being drawn on any other specifics.
I assume that won't be very much in £ terms in the grand scheme of things, while aiming to neutralise an issue that will not win them the new voters they need.
That's probably not a bad idea but I don't think it really does the trick politically because:
1) the media want to shit-stir and they can print what they like 2) either side of the twitter war wants to fight a battle on *identity*, and thinking about identity a lot turns people into uncompromising idiots.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
It's not binary, catastrophe vs no catastrophe. We have some level of catastrophe on our hands regardless, but there's still things we can do to mitigate, prepare etc. I expect a good few centuries of The Road/Dredd type living conditions before the absolute end.
One Green of my acquaintance was quite horrified when I pointed out that, at a certain level of destruction/catastrophe, trillions would be dumped into carbon capture.
35 Gigatons, say at $100 dollars a ton
3.5 trillion dollars. A few percent of world GDP....
And if you did it on that scale cost would drop. Hard to say where the floor is..... maybe 5x?
Science is very good at fixing the problems created by science.
Less good however at applying the precautionary principle so that we don't get into such a mess in the first place.
Good.
Because the "precautionary principle" is a bit like the old joke of economists having predicted nine of the last two recessions.
We had a Quantum Geography teacher in 4th year. He used to teach the first lesson after Friday lunch. It was only at the start of the lesson when you found out if he would be there or still in the pub.
The best sci-fi book I've ever read was Greg Egan's Quarantine. No spoilers but its very very hard Science Fiction. I lent it to a friend who loved Sci-fi and she passed it back after one chapter. She couldn't get into it at all. But I loved it. Still sits on the shelf. Read it only three times but always an amazing read through.
According to court documents, the Bay Area woman accused of starting the Fawn Fire in Shasta County last week was boiling bear urine so she could drink it when she allegedly set off the destructive blaze. https://twitter.com/KPIXtv/status/1442684030097444864
I remember a classic when a woman in San Diego was caught by the police for driving along a "two person minimum" bridge alone. She appealed against the fine because she was pregnant. She won that, but lost when the police came after her for "more than one person in the drivers seat"....
So how does one extract urine from a bear?
Carefully?
To take the piss from a bear, dress it in a Tottenham Hotspur top.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.
“But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.
“Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”
Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.
Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.
My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.
And you know what, that's OK.
No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.
No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.
And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.
I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done. I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement
That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit
You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
It's an interesting point, which goes beyond the Lib Dems. Is there a workable version of Brexit that doesn't involve realigning with the EU, similar to the EEA? Because that's been rejected by Brexiteers for reasons that are important to them. It's much easier to declare the whole situation a mess than to find solutions to it. Brexiteers presumably deflect , blame-shift and devise unrealistic solutions because they don't have real solutions themselves.
Although I 'liked' Big G's comment, it was the coming out and being open about it I agree with. If being in the EU is better than out (and I believe it is) the LDs shouldn't be afraid to say so, very loudly and in response to every issue. Just as the Brexiteers did for 20 years.
However I really don't see the point of being in the single market but not in the EU. I want to set the rules, not just take them. Otherwise we are better off as we are now - at least we get to decide.
I'm still trying to decide if LD policy is one I can support - it's a bit mealy mouthed for me. Is it the fist step in a commitment to rejoin that will take more than a parliament to implement, or just a step in the hope that we will rejoin eventually? While we are out of the EU, we should be out properly, until we decide to rejoin. A halfway house is pointless.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
I think it will be sooner, given that the BofE is now flagging interest rate rises THIS YEAR. There has not been a mortgage rate rise for 15 years. 2022 will see the biggest squeeze on living standards in generations, possibly the worst ever in peace time.
Sure Brexit is only marginal in this, but is IS a factor and it will get a lot more of the blame as the Covid crisis dies down.
The (admittedly pathetic) U-turn on visas for HGV drivers and food workers is nevertheless the new direction of travel, and the Spartans will have to face the reality that 5000 visas for three months is "a thimble of water to put out a fire". By this time next year "close alignment" will be the order of the day and if the Tories try and push back then they will face obliteration.
I sort of instinctively think this must be caused by humankind fucking the planet up but am open to new information on it. The wee sods are really up for it though. Relatedly I love an otter but I'm always slightly puzzled why they are so beloved since they're quite high up the scale of mustelid savagery. I guess Ring of Bright Water must take some of the blame/credit.
”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.
“But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.
“Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”
Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.
Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.
My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.
And you know what, that's OK.
No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.
No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.
And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.
I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done. I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement
That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit
You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
It's an interesting point, which goes beyond the Lib Dems. Is there a workable version of Brexit that doesn't involve realigning with the EU, similar to the EEA? Because that's been rejected by Brexiteers for reasons that are important to them. It's much easier to declare the whole situation a mess than to find solutions to it. Brexiteers presumably deflect , blame-shift and devise unrealistic solutions because they don't have real solutions themselves.
Although I 'liked' Big G's comment, it was the coming out and being open about it I agree with. If being in the EU is better than out (and I believe it is) the LDs shouldn't be afraid to say so, very loudly and in response to every issue. Just as the Brexiteers did for 20 years.
However I really don't see the point of being in the single market but not in the EU. I want to set the rules, not just take them. Otherwise we are better off as we are now - at least we get to decide.
I'm still trying to decide if LD policy is one I can support - it's a bit mealy mouthed for me. Is it the fist step in a commitment to rejoin that will take more than a parliament to implement, or just a step in the hope that we will rejoin eventually? While we are out of the EU, we should be out properly, until we decide to rejoin. A halfway house is pointless.
For some countries like Norway being "rule takers" is OK. For the UK we're too big to not have a say in the rules. Being out gives us full control over our own rules, being in gives us a say over the rules. Being halfway gives neither.
The problem though is you can take that a step further - in the EU the Eurozone has a controlling QMV majority. So rules can and were set to suit the Eurozone which is inevitably integrating faster rather than us. So if you're advocating to rejoin then would you advocate to rejoin but half-out like we were before with all those opt-outs etc (which the EU might not be happy to give us) - or do you advocate for a full throttled embrace of integration? Not just free movement, but joining the Euro and the Schengen Area etc?
South Eastern Rail now nationalised. The muscly one is doing a Stakhanovite turn at seizing the means of production, distribution and exchange.
"South Eastern" was the limited terms exclusive operator. The government has never sold off South Eastern or any other passenger rail operation so it can't be nationalised.
This isn't the first time that private operators have failed in Kent. Remember Connex?
Incidentally, I just got pinged by the NHS app for the first time (that'll teach me to go to a party!) and went for a Covid PCR test. Very efficient, straight in and out.
On the way I passed the local Esso garage. Queue stretching out of sight, and no diesel. I thought the demand might have peaked by now.
I do not know where people get the energy from to care deeply and passionately about so many things. The trans debate is one that has largely passed me by. I know that I should probably know more about it but I just don't have the bandwidth. There's too much else to think about.
Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm.
I am also sure there is a lot more to it than that: I just do not have the time or the energy to explore it further. That may reflect badly on me, but I suspect I am in the large majority. And therein lies Labour's problem on this.
"Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm."
Blatantly obviously true. How is this even a question? Total madness. The boy in "The Emperor's New Clothes" springs to mind.
I think that you have to look at it from the point of view of the person that is in transition. It cannot be an easy process, particularly in the early stages. If you don't assign them the full rights of their chosen gender, then what are they exactly?
In such a situation, I think that being called 'men in dresses' would be quite derogatory and offensive. So is the assumption that I am using my position to do harm to women. Many people would say that such comments are transphobic.
As I said previously on this thread; this is rooted in a societal change on how sex and gender is percieved; its the winds of change.
South Eastern Rail now nationalised. The muscly one is doing a Stakhanovite turn at seizing the means of production, distribution and exchange.
Yes, another glorious chapter in the sparkling franchising story!
Northern, East Coast and Southern now all renationalised. There's not that much left to do!
There is very little difference between "privatised" and "nationalised"
The former - owned by the government. Micromanaged by the government. Run by private companies on a specified service level agreement.
The latter - owned by the government. Micromanaged by the government. Run by private companies on a specified service level agreement.
Whilst ownership never changes despite "privatisation", there actually was a StateCo operator back in the New Labour days. That was wound up, so in a sector where the terminology is simply inappropriate it is of course understandable that the "nationalised" operator of last resort is a consortium of private companies...
I looked on Google this morning and it showed that our local BP filling station was 'busier than usual'. That could only mean one thing, so off I went.
After around 15 minutes queuing I now have a full tank of E10 petrol. Happy days!
The chap behind the counter said that they'd been busy since 5:30 this morning, and he expected that they'd be out of fuel this afternoon, with no more due for 2 or 3 days.
Interestingly, the person who had used the pump before me had put exactly £40 worth of diesel into his tank, rather than filling right up. Old habits die hard.
I now have 400 miles range - more than enough to reach the Llandudno branch of Asda.
Best of luck to everyone else on the lookout for fuel.
Forgive me, but how can you Google to find out if a petrol station is busy? This would be v useful to know.
I looked up the filling station and the Google result included a bar chart of typical busy levels. This included a red 'live' bar for the current time, which was well above trend. I have no idea where they get the data from, but very useful.
In contrast, the live bar for the local Asda was through the floor, therefore no fuel.
They get their information from everyone who has a smart phone, uses google maps and has GPS turned on, that's a lot of people. What is not recorded is the prupose of being in that location, ie. google can't tell the difference between someone walking past a petrol station and a car slowly moving up in a queue for petrol, but often the information is good enough to be useful.
There was a guy in Berlin a few years ago, who singlehandedly caused Google to think there was a traffic jam in central Berlin, by cycling slowly around with a bike trailer full of mobile phones.
”Walk around a supermarket in the U.S. or Europe and you will see some empty shelves once more. This isn’t due to people panic-buying toilet paper, as they did early on in the pandemic; rather it’s because supply chains are clogged at almost every stage between Asian factories and grocery stock rooms.
“But rising prices and patchy availability mean it’s only a matter of time before shoppers start purchasing in bulk again — this time to avoid future sticker shock.
“Supply lines are struggling as producers such as Vietnam, responsible for making everything from sneakers to coffee, are hurt by Covid restrictions. Surging virus cases and consumer demand are leading to congested ports. Shipping containers are in the wrong place. Sea freight costs are up tenfold. If goods do arrive at the destined ports, there are too few truck drivers to transport them to retailers. Shortages of workers to harvest and prepare foods are also adding to the pressures.”
Now, I know I'm in a posh part of LA, but I haven't seen any shortages... yet.
Today I filled up my (@Dura_Ace approved) car with petrol, without problems.
My gut - and it's just a gut - is that there is a post Covid demand boom, that is causing supply crunches everywhere. But it's most acute in the UK, simply because Covid hit almost immediately following Brexit. It meant that those who could drive could earn great money in less stressful food delivery jobs, and the normal steady flow people through training was disrupted.
And you know what, that's OK.
No-one is going to starve. Things will adjust. The cost of trucking stuff around will probably increase. And yes, that will have an impact on the price we pay for things.
That post was fine until you got to the 'it's ok' bit.
No it isn't. If you lived here you'd realise that it really, really, isn't. We have horrendous multiple crises going on in the UK at the moment. You may not be a fan of the NHS, for instance, but the situation is absolutely dire. I know several people who have had cancer diagnoses missed during the past 18 months and are now in real trouble. Try getting a face to face appointment with a GP and it's nigh-impossible.
And there are people who ARE on the bread line, especially with the cut in universal credit.
I could go on but please don't post aloof messages from sunny LA trying to tell us it's all fine. That's as bad as the Metropolitan Elite Remainers who never, ever, got the issue in the ghost towns of the north and east of England.
I think you go a bit far - we have some enormous challenges ahead, but we always do. The NHS has had winter crisis for as long as I can remember. There will never be enough money, time, medics to do all that could be done. I'd suggest you look elsewhere. We are not uniquely struggling. Things will improve. My guess is the fuel 'crisis' will be over by the weekend.
They don't seem to be struggling quite as much as we are. In terms of loss of life expectancy, Covid has hit the UK harder than many countries, and nowhere else has has people queuing for petrol. European supermarket shelves aren't as empty as ours, either. Pasta, chopped tomatoes and kidney beans almost all gone on my last shoping trip.
BREXIT has really put us in a bad place.
Brexit is an unserious project lead by unserious people, which is the big issue we have right now. They start out by claiming shortages are a feature, not a bug, of Brexit, because they drive up wages. Then they deny that shortages actually exist, because no-one wants to do without important stuff. Or, if they can't deny it, they claim everyone else also had shortages. Finally they blame everyone else for the consequences of their own decisions; companies, the media, Remainers, the EU.
As I have said before time for the lib dems to come out publicly and say they will join the single market and a accept freedom of movement
That would be honest rather than continually bemoaning abour Brexit
You do not like it, so say what you do want openly and honestly to the public
It's an interesting point, which goes beyond the Lib Dems. Is there a workable version of Brexit that doesn't involve realigning with the EU, similar to the EEA? Because that's been rejected by Brexiteers for reasons that are important to them. It's much easier to declare the whole situation a mess than to find solutions to it. Brexiteers presumably deflect , blame-shift and devise unrealistic solutions because they don't have real solutions themselves.
Although I 'liked' Big G's comment, it was the coming out and being open about it I agree with. If being in the EU is better than out (and I believe it is) the LDs shouldn't be afraid to say so, very loudly and in response to every issue. Just as the Brexiteers did for 20 years.
However I really don't see the point of being in the single market but not in the EU. I want to set the rules, not just take them. Otherwise we are better off as we are now - at least we get to decide.
I'm still trying to decide if LD policy is one I can support - it's a bit mealy mouthed for me. Is it the fist step in a commitment to rejoin that will take more than a parliament to implement, or just a step in the hope that we will rejoin eventually? While we are out of the EU, we should be out properly, until we decide to rejoin. A halfway house is pointless.
For some countries like Norway being "rule takers" is OK. For the UK we're too big to not have a say in the rules. Being out gives us full control over our own rules, being in gives us a say over the rules. Being halfway gives neither.
The problem though is you can take that a step further - in the EU the Eurozone has a controlling QMV majority. So rules can and were set to suit the Eurozone which is inevitably integrating faster rather than us. So if you're advocating to rejoin then would you advocate to rejoin but half-out like we were before with all those opt-outs etc (which the EU might not be happy to give us) - or do you advocate for a full throttled embrace of integration? Not just free movement, but joining the Euro and the Schengen Area etc?
Yes, I would have done. I'm not sure the conditions for monetary union have ever been right as it happens, but much easier for everyone all round if you know how much things will cost and what price you will get. I recognise I'm in a small minority there.
Researching the US Colonial pipeline attack, as I’m doing for the day job, came across two comedy pieces from the time, that I’ll be using for training.
Both videos make a point of saying, within the first couple of minutes, that there would be no shortages of ‘gas’ (petrol) were it not for every idiot brimming their tank, their Jerry can and even milk bottles.
It’s exactly the same as what’s happening in the UK at the moment.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
What's going to happen then when everyone turns the boilers on for central heating in a few weeks time?
Is the spot price going to go even higher? Or is that seasonality already accounted for?
It will get worse before it gets better though there's already some element of pricing in tomorrow's shortage.
We had a decade to stop using oil and gas for electricity generation and did nothing. The UK and other countries across Europe are going to pay a very high price this year and next.
Did nothing is a bit harsh. Haven't done enough is true though.
Unibet have paid at 4/1 on the SPD for anyone who took Quincel's tip (which I am led to believe did not include Quincel because they wouldn't take their money)
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Last time I headed into a McD's it was full of Deliveroo drivers !
Researching the US Colonial pipeline attack, as I’m doing for the day job, came across two comedy pieces from the time, that I’ll be using for training.
Both videos make a point of saying, within the first couple of minutes, that there would be no shortages of ‘gas’ (petrol) were it not for every idiot brimming their tank, their Jerry can and even milk bottles.
It’s exactly the same as what’s happening in the UK at the moment.
People are people and behave like people. There's no point in wishing they wouldn't.
This doesn’t sound very good: in England, latest figures suggest more than one in ten secondary school pupils and over a third of school staff who had coronavirus have suffered long Covid symptoms.
The most common symptom reported by staff and pupils was weakness or tiredness, while staff were more likely to experience shortness of breath than pupils, according to a small study of schools in England, the PA news agency reports.
The survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that about 35.7% of staff and 12.3% of secondary school pupils with a previously confirmed Covid infection reported experiencing ongoing symptoms more than four weeks from the start of the infection.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Last time I headed into a McD's it was full of Deliveroo drivers !
Yes. Just yesterday I noticed a long, and surprising, queue outside our city centre McDonalds. On closer scrutiny, every one of them was either Deliveroo or Just Eats.
And we're meant to trust voters because they know what's best......
Unibet have paid at 4/1 on the SPD for anyone who took Quincel's tip (which I am led to believe did not include Quincel because they wouldn't take their money)
Probably pointless even suggesting it, but anyone interested in a nuanced, largely fact-based discussion on trans issues should listen to this morning's Woman's Hour where a lawyer who specialises in trans issues (and is trans herself), Robin Moira White, was interviewed.
Thanks for flagging this, just listened to it. I think it's been said on here that Emma Barnett is a very good presenter/interviewer, and she was top notch in that segment. It's interesting that Robin Moira White compared trans rights to gay rights. As has been pointed out on here, it's not quite so neat and tidy.
Rolling blackouts in China, shops ordered to stop using AC to lower demand on the grid. Brexit has had some serious consequences, Boris should be ashamed of himself for causing this latest crisis.
Researching the US Colonial pipeline attack, as I’m doing for the day job, came across two comedy pieces from the time, that I’ll be using for training.
Both videos make a point of saying, within the first couple of minutes, that there would be no shortages of ‘gas’ (petrol) were it not for every idiot brimming their tank, their Jerry can and even milk bottles.
It’s exactly the same as what’s happening in the UK at the moment.
People are people and behave like people. There's no point in wishing they wouldn't.
Then: the masses have been let down by our opponents for far too long and are wisely voting for X hoping for real change.
Now: the masses are stupid ****s whose behaviour is making X look bad.
New: latest survey of members of Petrol Retail Association shows that, as of this morning, 40% of forecourts were “dry”, 40% have one grade of fuel and 20% are fully stocked.
Researching the US Colonial pipeline attack, as I’m doing for the day job, came across two comedy pieces from the time, that I’ll be using for training.
Both videos make a point of saying, within the first couple of minutes, that there would be no shortages of ‘gas’ (petrol) were it not for every idiot brimming their tank, their Jerry can and even milk bottles.
It’s exactly the same as what’s happening in the UK at the moment.
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Last time I headed into a McD's it was full of Deliveroo drivers !
I had the same experience. I don’t think McDonald’s have thought through their ubereats/Deliveroo partnership.
Makes the experience rather miserable for their eat-in customers.
For local politics nerds there are by-elections today. Broadlands has 2 wards up with one a double vacancy. So that's 3 people to be elected. Should be 3 Con holds.
The LDs are usually fairly competitive in that general area IIRC.
Average energy bills, come April ‘22 are gonna be approaching £2k at this rate.
Labour framing the “cost of living crisis” is looking quite smart and should pay dividends next April. I think it’s likely they’ll be leading the polls by May.
Just watching Politics Live and I thought it was interesting that they were focussing on the fuel "crisis". Actually, gas prices is a much bigger issue. There's the cost of living angle, but there's also the wider economy one too. If prices stay that high it will cause a global downturn.
The concerning thing is that the gas prices are this high while boilers aren't burning.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
Speaking as someone with zero knowledge of the logistics, is it not possible that prices go up before people start turning on their heating? Presumably the wholesale market is busy towards the end of the summer/early autumn.
Not really, this is spot priced gas for immediate delivery. It reflects the shortage of gas due to less exploration taking place last year and western countries making gas exploration significantly less profitable for the last 10 years.
What's going to happen then when everyone turns the boilers on for central heating in a few weeks time?
Is the spot price going to go even higher? Or is that seasonality already accounted for?
It will get worse before it gets better though there's already some element of pricing in tomorrow's shortage.
We had a decade to stop using oil and gas for electricity generation and did nothing. The UK and other countries across Europe are going to pay a very high price this year and next.
Did nothing is a bit harsh. Haven't done enough is true though.
Not harsh at all, some countries have actually gone backwards. We had 10 golden years to invest in alternative energy and at the end of it we've got about 10% of the necessary non-fossil fuel power we needed. The rate of advancement is far, far too slow and we're all going to pay the price.
There is much is common between Greta Thunberg and realists who say that the powerful are virtue signalling.
At what point do those who actually are interested in facts, like Greta, agree that if the science is correct the catastrophe is going to happen and we can't and won't stop it?
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Last time I headed into a McD's it was full of Deliveroo drivers !
Yes. Just yesterday I noticed a long, and surprising, queue outside our city centre McDonalds. On closer scrutiny, every one of them was either Deliveroo or Just Eats.
And we're meant to trust voters because they know what's best......
One thing I noticed when I was down in Milton Keynes (Haven't seen any round this way... yet) was a whole army of small robotic vehicles presumably doing deliveries everywhere ! Deliveroo and Uber Eats might be a phenomenon that lasts a decade at most..
If Starmer doesn't want a £15 p/h minimum wage, why on earth was he out with a protest for McDonald's to pay £15 p/h ?
Because big companies should pay more than minimum wage?
Really? McDonalds have already gone through one round of automation (the self service tills) to reduce staff requirements because £9 an hour was too much.
Tills which have very much lost them their sole USP. Which was speed. Could have ordered a full English at a cafe quicker last time. And bigger and cheaper.
I don't think speed is their sole USP. Indeed they've long since moved away from speed being their USP. When I worked there 20 years ago all food was premade and boxed up, someone came to the till and placed their order and I would grab it off the rack and give it to them. Shouting out for something to be made was extremely rare and generally was only the case if someone ordered something unusual like a Filet O Fish.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
Oh. OK. Perhaps I am remembering when I went often. My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker. 20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
My support bubble and I have binned our weekly visit to McDonalds because, as you say, it now takes too long, even if objectively it is still quicker than some alternatives.
Last time I headed into a McD's it was full of Deliveroo drivers !
Yes, I went into a KFC a fortnight ago and it was a constant stream of JustEat, Deliveroo, and UberEats.
We're talking a motorbike turning up every 1-2 minutes, and then departing 2-3 minutes later. Probably always at least two guys in the shop.
New: latest survey of members of Petrol Retail Association shows that, as of this morning, 40% of forecourts were “dry”, 40% have one grade of fuel and 20% are fully stocked.
That's actually a lot better than what I expected. The supply chain is much more resilient than what has been advertised because demand is clearly running at a multiple of ordinary levels yet a fifth of stations are fully stocked and 60% are fully or partially stocked.
If we had an actual supply or supply chain issue this wouldn't be the case.
Rolling blackouts in China, shops ordered to stop using AC to lower demand on the grid. Brexit has had some serious consequences, Boris should be ashamed of himself for causing this latest crisis.
Said it before. This internal represssion and external bellicosity is a function of weakness, not strength.
Comments
Instinctively, it just seems wrong to me that someone can self ID as a woman - if biologically they are a man - and then immediately and unquestionably enjoy all the legal rights that women enjoy. I just know that should that be allowed there are evil men out there who will exploit it to do women harm.
I am also sure there is a lot more to it than that: I just do not have the time or the energy to explore it further. That may reflect badly on me, but I suspect I am in the large majority. And therein lies Labour's problem on this.
Chancellor Rishi needs to find a way of smoothing them out.
In contrast, the live bar for the local Asda was through the floor, therefore no fuel.
Blatantly obviously true. How is this even a question? Total madness. The boy in "The Emperor's New Clothes" springs to mind.
Highly annoying.
It's the voice, I think.
35 Gigatons, say at $100 dollars a ton
3.5 trillion dollars. A few percent of world GDP....
And if you did it on that scale cost would drop. Hard to say where the floor is..... maybe 5x?
The downside is the stupid pile of emails that have filled your inbox on your non-working day, which puts you on the back foot the next morning.
Which reminds me that I'll have two weeks' worth to wade through next Monday morning.
I assume that won't be very much in £ terms in the grand scheme of things, while aiming to neutralise an issue that will not win them the new voters they need.
I know wind has dropped which is an issue, but even with the wind picking up . . . once everyone turns their central heating on in the next few weeks what's going to happen to gas prices then?
My approach at this point? Stay full-time but use Friday for easy stuff like 1:1s and catch-ups, plus planning for week thereafter. Office is much quieter so that gets easier all the time.
"Vote for Ted
4 days in bed."
Hang on a moment - are we just picking on the ones with regionals dialect 🤔
Is the spot price going to go even higher? Or is that seasonality already accounted for?
This attack on Starmer is a red herring. It's perfectly consistent to campaign for a £15 per hour wage at McDonalds while thinking that £15 an hour is too high for a generic minimum wage right now.
And anyway, as we all know, it's the nature of collective bargaining that you "demand" more than you realistically know you'll achieve. Current pay £10; we demand £15; we end up with £12.50. Job done.
Actually twice as there was one between the office and the hotel in Bulgaria so we went once when working very late (the Bulgarian one didn't have self service tills).
We had a decade to stop using oil and gas for electricity generation and did nothing. The UK and other countries across Europe are going to pay a very high price this year and next.
https://twitter.com/superlicense/status/1442781182203031552
Does rather reinforce some of the conversation we had here yesterday.
Nowadays almost everything is made fresh to order instead of being sat on the rack potentially for over an hour before it gets chosen.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997331/Energy_Trends_June_2021.pdf
The suggestion is, unsurprisingly, that domestic use of natural gas is cyclical on an annual basis.
Why don't they attack Amazon, £10 an hour, £12 at night, double for any overtime.
And don't forget stewards at this conference are on £9.50 an hour even though Labour were originally campaigning for £10.
Labour are currently economically illiterate. Which means I now have nowhere to vote for the first time as every party is currently f**ing awful with no redeeming features.
McDonald's isn't really a large business - its a brandname shared by a very large collection of small businesses. There's no guarantee those small businesses can afford £15.
At busy times the difference was a matter of seconds but I suppose the saving of not having the till jockeys (or not as many) makes the new system worthwhile.
I mean how on earth have they reached a state where the Labour MP for Canterbury was rebuked by her leader for saying only women have a cervix. FFS! She's too scared to go to the conference and this is his considered comment!
I am going to get one right now (Big Mac, fries, chocolate shake, natch).
My last visit, and it will be my last visit, was a shocker.
20 minutes wait. Food meh. Compared to a cafe, portions tiny, price exorbitant.
Wetherspoons might be a better example of a large minimum-wage employer
1) the media want to shit-stir and they can print what they like
2) either side of the twitter war wants to fight a battle on *identity*, and thinking about identity a lot turns people into uncompromising idiots.
Because the "precautionary principle" is a bit like the old joke of economists having predicted nine of the last two recessions.
No spoilers but its very very hard Science Fiction. I lent it to a friend who loved Sci-fi and she passed it back after one chapter. She couldn't get into it at all.
But I loved it. Still sits on the shelf. Read it only three times but always an amazing read through.
The muscly one is doing a Stakhanovite turn at seizing the means of production, distribution and exchange.
However I really don't see the point of being in the single market but not in the EU. I want to set the rules, not just take them. Otherwise we are better off as we are now - at least we get to decide.
I'm still trying to decide if LD policy is one I can support - it's a bit mealy mouthed for me. Is it the fist step in a commitment to rejoin that will take more than a parliament to implement, or just a step in the hope that we will rejoin eventually? While we are out of the EU, we should be out properly, until we decide to rejoin. A halfway house is pointless.
Sure Brexit is only marginal in this, but is IS a factor and it will get a lot more of the blame as the Covid crisis dies down.
The (admittedly pathetic) U-turn on visas for HGV drivers and food workers is nevertheless the new direction of travel, and the Spartans will have to face the reality that 5000 visas for three months is "a thimble of water to put out a fire". By this time next year "close alignment" will be the order of the day and if the Tories try and push back then they will face obliteration.
Relatedly I love an otter but I'm always slightly puzzled why they are so beloved since they're quite high up the scale of mustelid savagery. I guess Ring of Bright Water must take some of the blame/credit.
https://twitter.com/RebeccaH2030/status/1442766006133436427?s=20
The problem though is you can take that a step further - in the EU the Eurozone has a controlling QMV majority. So rules can and were set to suit the Eurozone which is inevitably integrating faster rather than us. So if you're advocating to rejoin then would you advocate to rejoin but half-out like we were before with all those opt-outs etc (which the EU might not be happy to give us) - or do you advocate for a full throttled embrace of integration? Not just free movement, but joining the Euro and the Schengen Area etc?
Edit: Wikipedia says Manchester but it's not the regionality of the accent that gets me, more the squeaky/nasal tone.
If it isn't a title decider than why does it exist?
Yes, another glorious chapter in the sparkling franchising story!
Northern, East Coast and Southern now all renationalised. There's not that much left to do!
This isn't the first time that private operators have failed in Kent. Remember Connex?
On the way I passed the local Esso garage. Queue stretching out of sight, and no diesel. I thought the demand might have peaked by now.
In such a situation, I think that being called 'men in dresses' would be quite derogatory and offensive. So is the assumption that I am using my position to do harm to women. Many people would say that such comments are transphobic.
As I said previously on this thread; this is rooted in a societal change on how sex and gender is percieved; its the winds of change.
The former - owned by the government. Micromanaged by the government. Run by private companies on a specified service level agreement.
The latter - owned by the government. Micromanaged by the government. Run by private companies on a specified service level agreement.
Whilst ownership never changes despite "privatisation", there actually was a StateCo operator back in the New Labour days. That was wound up, so in a sector where the terminology is simply inappropriate it is of course understandable that the "nationalised" operator of last resort is a consortium of private companies...
There was a guy in Berlin a few years ago, who singlehandedly caused Google to think there was a traffic jam in central Berlin, by cycling slowly around with a bike trailer full of mobile phones.
1. John Oliver, Last Week Tonight https://youtube.com/watch?v=WqD-ATqw3js
2. Trevor Noah, The Daily Show https://youtube.com/watch?v=bt-62h7ZR8s
Both videos make a point of saying, within the first couple of minutes, that there would be no shortages of ‘gas’ (petrol) were it not for every idiot brimming their tank, their Jerry can and even milk bottles.
It’s exactly the same as what’s happening in the UK at the moment.
The most common symptom reported by staff and pupils was weakness or tiredness, while staff were more likely to experience shortness of breath than pupils, according to a small study of schools in England, the PA news agency reports.
The survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that about 35.7% of staff and 12.3% of secondary school pupils with a previously confirmed Covid infection reported experiencing ongoing symptoms more than four weeks from the start of the infection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkCwFkOZoOY
Edited extra bit: although I do feel the need to point out that the flat Earth bit is just wrong.
And we're meant to trust voters because they know what's best......
Now: the masses are stupid ****s whose behaviour is making X look bad.
All motorway services fully stocked.
@RMI_PRA members account for 5500 of UK’s 8500 petrol stations.
https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1442833363891597313
immunitymentality.Makes the experience rather miserable for their eat-in customers.
Deliveroo and Uber Eats might be a phenomenon that lasts a decade at most..
We're talking a motorbike turning up every 1-2 minutes, and then departing 2-3 minutes later. Probably always at least two guys in the shop.
And this was in Basingstoke.
If we had an actual supply or supply chain issue this wouldn't be the case.
Here is a short article on the causes.
https://fortune.com/2021/09/27/china-energy-crisis-blackouts-power-outage-households-pay/