A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
Ken Clarke @MrKennethClarke · 6h Reports are coming in that the Brexit Bus has run out of fuel.
Nowt to do with Brexit. And doesn't exist anyways. This really is an open goal for a Labour Conference week. Can you imagine what Blair, Smith or Wilson would do with this news? Not pass back to the keeper.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
Christina Pagel is caught not having a fecking clue what she talks about.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
Ken Clarke @MrKennethClarke · 6h Reports are coming in that the Brexit Bus has run out of fuel.
Nowt to do with Brexit. And doesn't exist anyways. This really is an open goal for a Labour Conference week. Can you imagine what Blair, Smith or Wilson would do with this news? Not pass back to the keeper.
Exactly only a useless nonentity would make the whole Conference about divisive internal matters with the Country in such a state.
McLeish close to picking out that last splinter in his arse from the Scottish Indy fence he's been sitting on for years. Fear not though Yoons, he may yet be tempted back and his indy support would be conditional on the Union being unable to reform itself. Whadda ya think lads, what are the chance sthe the Union will reform itself?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
Christina Pagel is caught not having a fecking clue what she talks about.
In other shock news, bear shits in woods.
Strikes me that what iSAGE themselves do is focus on the absolute worst case from the modellers and then scream this will happen because of Johnson and we must have another lockdown immediately or whatever.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
Christina Pagel is caught not having a fecking clue what she talks about.
In other shock news, bear shits in woods.
Strikes me that what iSAGE themselves do is focus on the absolute worst case from the modellers and then scream this will happen because of Johnson and we must have another lockdown immediately or whatever.
Nobody is stopping them locking themselves up and having endless pointless meetings over Zoom saying how wonderful they all are and how silly the rest of us are, while we get on with our lives.
As the Golgafrincham solution isn’t available, that seems a perfectly acceptable second best.
Genuinely riveting, both the overall theory and the detail, and the match with the biblical account. And brilliant that Nature is free to air like that.
PS Some of the evidence is very much along the lines of that used for the Chicxulub impact crater that did in the (terrestrial) dinosaurs.
Gonna have to stop you there, pre-KT avian dinosaurs aren't particularly thought to have flown. Feathers were their most distinctive link with birds (though other flavours of dinosaur probably had them too).
And while I'm on about it, dinosaurs are divided into saurischian, lizard-hipped, and ornithischian, bird-hipped. Guess what? Birds are descended from the saurischians.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
Renegotiation would surely have been attempted prior to administration though which would be the last resort.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
Christina Pagel is caught not having a fecking clue what she talks about.
In other shock news, bear shits in woods.
Strikes me that what iSAGE themselves do is focus on the absolute worst case from the modellers and then scream this will happen because of Johnson and we must have another lockdown immediately or whatever.
Nobody is stopping them locking themselves up and having endless pointless meetings over Zoom saying how wonderful they all are and how silly the rest of us are, while we get on with our lives.
As the Golgafrincham solution isn’t available, that seems a perfectly acceptable second best.
They’re moving on to climate change after the pandemic is over.
Genuinely riveting, both the overall theory and the detail, and the match with the biblical account. And brilliant that Nature is free to air like that.
PS Some of the evidence is very much along the lines of that used for the Chicxulub impact crater that did in the (terrestrial) dinosaurs.
Gonna have to stop you there, pre-KT avian dinosaurs aren't particularly thought to have flown. Feathers were their most distinctive link with birds (though other flavours of dinosaur probably had them too).
And while I'm on about it, dinosaurs are divided into saurischian, lizard-hipped, and ornithischian, bird-hipped. Guess what? Birds are descended from the saurischians.
Eh? Been known since the 1970s that birds were saurischians, more specifically theropods, rather than ornithischians (which IIRC was an original Huxley inference from 1861 or so). Archaeopteryx was latest Jurassic and a very good if long-armed theropod, and it certainly flew (wing area/loading ratio, asymmetric flight feathers, etc.) as I recall from lectures.
I was also listening to a much more up to daye lecture last night, as it happens - at least three different lineages of theropod dinosaurs had flight, not just the birds. I think this report must refer to the primary research paper.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
It's not renegotiating contracts though, once they're in administration the contracts are worthless and a new owner will out pay pennies to the pound to the old contract holders.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right think by panic buying.
Genuinely riveting, both the overall theory and the detail, and the match with the biblical account. And brilliant that Nature is free to air like that.
PS Some of the evidence is very much along the lines of that used for the Chicxulub impact crater that did in the (terrestrial) dinosaurs.
Gonna have to stop you there, pre-KT avian dinosaurs aren't particularly thought to have flown. Feathers were their most distinctive link with birds (though other flavours of dinosaur probably had them too).
And while I'm on about it, dinosaurs are divided into saurischian, lizard-hipped, and ornithischian, bird-hipped. Guess what? Birds are descended from the saurischians.
And we're descended from clams, right?
Naah just cousins. Last common ancestor almost as old as @JackW.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
Renegotiation would surely have been attempted prior to administration though which would be the last resort.
It sounds like a right old mess. The challenge is how much do you renegotiate by - remember that Red Philo thinks that the pay rises should go to the moon - and how do you get that run through quickly enough?
As an example, go to Sainsburys and say "we're putting our costs up 20%". That isn't something that will go through on the nod. And if the haulier have already called in PwC are you negotiating with the haulier or with their PwC advisors, and with what guarantees this new contract will be worth the paper its written on?
The first is a place where an initial laissez-faire attitude resulted in a big negative economic impact, lots more deaths than peers, and a belated imposition of local lockdowns. It is a place where only 32% of voters think "the government has done a good job of handling the Coronavirus".
The other is a mythical place that Unherd and the Spectator write about frequently and gushingly.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
It's not renegotiating contracts though, once they're in administration the contracts are worthless and a new owner will out pay pennies to the pound to the old contract holders.
And that is why "just renegotiate contracts" hasn't happened. Nor can the haulier know what its costs will be when pay keeps going up every other hour.
Ultimately the supermarket(s) will end up owning this. Assuming there is enough left for them to want to.
Genuinely riveting, both the overall theory and the detail, and the match with the biblical account. And brilliant that Nature is free to air like that.
PS Some of the evidence is very much along the lines of that used for the Chicxulub impact crater that did in the (terrestrial) dinosaurs.
Gonna have to stop you there, pre-KT avian dinosaurs aren't particularly thought to have flown. Feathers were their most distinctive link with birds (though other flavours of dinosaur probably had them too).
And while I'm on about it, dinosaurs are divided into saurischian, lizard-hipped, and ornithischian, bird-hipped. Guess what? Birds are descended from the saurischians.
Eh? Been known since the 1970s that birds were saurischians, more specifically theropods, rather than ornithischians (which IIRC was an original Huxley inference from 1861 or so). Archaeopteryx was latest Jurassic and a very good if long-armed theropod, and it certainly flew (wing area/loading ratio, asymmetric flight feathers, etc.) as I recall from lectures.
I was also listening to a much more up to daye lecture last night, as it happens - at least three different lineages of theropod dinosaurs had flight, not just the birds. I think this report must refer to the primary research paper.
A private equity-backed haulage firm specialising in chilled food deliveries to Asda and Sainsbury’s has gone bust, adding to concerns about gaps on shelves as Britain heads for a 'winter of discontent'.
EVCL Chill, a subsidiary of EV Cargo, filed for administration, adding to speculation that the two supermarkets will need to take-over the business to safeguard deliveries.
The company had a number of major contracts for supermarkets and employed around 1,000 workers in warehousing and HGV driving roles.
It comes amid worry that Britain will be faced with severe food shortages this winter due to a lack of lorry drivers and an ongoing energy crisis.
This is a problem. They were the bespoke chilled transport used by both Asda and Sainsburys to move chilled products between the retailer distribution centres and stores, or in a lot of cases from the producer depot (eg Arla) to the store.
Whilst Asda and Sainsburys are trying to pick the operation up off the administrator between them, this won't happen immediately. Suppliers being told "make other arrangements" but there isn't an alternative fleet of trucks sat around doing nothing...
Has it ceased trading then, as opposed to being kept running while they find a buyer ?
I'd be shocked if the administrator started winding down operations. It's clearly a viable business and will have a lot of potential buyers given the national logistics situation. Especially if they've got 1000 drivers and are now not subject to the old unprofitable supermarket contracts. It's highly likely that one or both of Asda/Sainsbury's will buy them out of bankruptcy. In fact I'd expect both to want to own it outright and secure all 1000 drivers for their own supply chain.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
It isn't clear what is happening. Its customers - people like Arla - are being told by the company they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
It's not renegotiating contracts though, once they're in administration the contracts are worthless and a new owner will out pay pennies to the pound to the old contract holders.
And that is why "just renegotiate contracts" hasn't happened. Nor can the haulier know what its costs will be when pay keeps going up every other hour.
Ultimately the supermarket(s) will end up owning this. Assuming there is enough left for them to want to.
The supermarkets are the ones who have driven and nailed down costs to the floor. They're the ones who need to pay good rates to fix this.
The government shouldn't be getting involved. The supermarkets should.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
There are indeed. One work colleague still working her way through toilet rolls. We all reckon she will have filled car today.
Tbf, most of us will keep working our way through toilet rolls until we either snuff it or have really heavy duty surgery for piles.
Should have been clearer with pedants lurking like hyenas around the lion kill - she is still using toilet roll bought in March 2020. But then you knew that, didn’t you, you swine😀
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
There are indeed. One work colleague still working her way through toilet rolls. We all reckon she will have filled car today.
Tbf, most of us will keep working our way through toilet rolls until we either snuff it or have really heavy duty surgery for piles.
Should have been clearer with pedants lurking like hyenas around the lion kill - she is still using toilet roll bought in March 2020. But then you knew that, didn’t you, you swine😀
Johnson is keen to link these wage increases to Brexit and the end of free movement. He believes this is what people voted for, and that the wage increases are an example of Brexit delivering. When a group of influential businessmen tried to bend his ear this month about labour shortages, Johnson simply asked if they had tried paying people more. He regarded that as the end of the conversation.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
Christina Pagel is caught not having a fecking clue what she talks about.
In other shock news, bear shits in woods.
Strikes me that what iSAGE themselves do is focus on the absolute worst case from the modellers and then scream this will happen because of Johnson and we must have another lockdown immediately or whatever.
Nobody is stopping them locking themselves up and having endless pointless meetings over Zoom saying how wonderful they all are and how silly the rest of us are, while we get on with our lives.
As the Golgafrincham solution isn’t available, that seems a perfectly acceptable second best.
They’re moving on to climate change after the pandemic is over.
Well, the amount of hot air they produced will probably have a not insignificant bearing on ACC.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
And insurance needs to be bought before the event. Petrol isn't going to suddenly cease to exist. A person's house will if it burns down.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
I’ve still got the dried lentils I bought ahead of the first brexit date.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
When we couldn’t get pasata or tinned tomato we used tomato soup. Surprisingly nice, and I’m thinking of recreating it when I get lockdown nostalgia...
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
Building insurance is a condition of most mortgages
Genuinely riveting, both the overall theory and the detail, and the match with the biblical account. And brilliant that Nature is free to air like that.
PS Some of the evidence is very much along the lines of that used for the Chicxulub impact crater that did in the (terrestrial) dinosaurs.
Gonna have to stop you there, pre-KT avian dinosaurs aren't particularly thought to have flown. Feathers were their most distinctive link with birds (though other flavours of dinosaur probably had them too).
And while I'm on about it, dinosaurs are divided into saurischian, lizard-hipped, and ornithischian, bird-hipped. Guess what? Birds are descended from the saurischians.
Eh? Been known since the 1970s that birds were saurischians, more specifically theropods, rather than ornithischians (which IIRC was an original Huxley inference from 1861 or so). Archaeopteryx was latest Jurassic and a very good if long-armed theropod, and it certainly flew (wing area/loading ratio, asymmetric flight feathers, etc.) as I recall from lectures.
I was also listening to a much more up to daye lecture last night, as it happens - at least three different lineages of theropod dinosaurs had flight, not just the birds. I think this report must refer to the primary research paper.
I was just commenting on the irony that the birds are not descended from the bird hipped ones. Not that interesting a point admittedly.
Some of those names for taxa, whether species or higher classificatory groups, are admittedly pretty archaic - made sense at the time, not so much now.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
Christ all fucking mighty. You make a point so crashingly obvious you fear you are insulting PB's collective intelligence by making it, and this happens.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
Building insurance is a condition of most mortgages
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
Christ all fucking mighty. You make a point so crashingly obvious you fear you are insulting PB's collective intelligence by making it, and this happens.
Tell you what, we can all stop posting and leave the floor to you. It’s a fecking discussion. Don’t like my posts, ignore them. I won’t care.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
I have no idea....lockdown mk I, we just bought a freezer full of meat, fish, fruit and veg from costco....jolly nice it was too...
It would be interesting to know which parts of the country aren't panic buying petrol and which are, and whether there's any correlation with any particular attributes you might find in the census data for example.
Johnson is keen to link these wage increases to Brexit and the end of free movement. He believes this is what people voted for, and that the wage increases are an example of Brexit delivering. When a group of influential businessmen tried to bend his ear this month about labour shortages, Johnson simply asked if they had tried paying people more. He regarded that as the end of the conversation.
Amazingly, all the people Sky News interviewed queuing up for fuel said that they needed to get fuel today and they weren’t panic buying.
Is that a bit like when they raid a knocking shop and all the men in their claim they were actually just lost and popped in to ask for directions? When asked where their trousers are, every one of them spilled their cup of tea the nice young lady brought them.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
Christ all fucking mighty. You make a point so crashingly obvious you fear you are insulting PB's collective intelligence by making it, and this happens.
Tell you what, we can all stop posting and leave the floor to you. It’s a fecking discussion. Don’t like my posts, ignore them. I won’t care.
OK, let me spell it out. The analogy is: the difference between me filling up my car next Tuesday when I would normally expect to, vs filling it up today when I am driving past a petrol station anyway and the tank is half full, represents a tiny investment in extra effort, which is equivalent to the relatively tiny cost of an insurance premium, and protects me against the relatively tiny possibility that in 5 days time there will still be a fuel shortage. Except the investment is much less and the danger much greater than in the house insurance analogy. A value bet in other words.
Yeah but BigG has an anecdote repeated at least 3 times involving Asda and a tanker that clearly proves there is no problem
There was no problem, then idiots decided to spark a panic when there was no reason to do so - and Lemmings joined in the panic.
I agree. I suspect there was a little bit of supply issue due to covid etc. I'm sure tanker drivers aren't running off to ferry cabbages around. Perhaps it was the management at the distribution centres overplaying their hands. Sadly it has sparked off a bit of a panic.
McLeish close to picking out that last splinter in his arse from the Scottish Indy fence he's been sitting on for years. Fear not though Yoons, he may yet be tempted back and his indy support would be conditional on the Union being unable to reform itself. Whadda ya think lads, what are the chance sthe the Union will reform itself?
Why on earth should Tories care less what a former Labour FM thinks of the Union? As long as there is a Tory government at Westminster indyref2 will be refused.
The only way there will ever be an indyref2 allowed is if there is a UK Labour government, in which case McLeish would probably back the Union again anyway and Starmer's No + devomax offer in such a scenario
Sources from todays TULO meeting say that Starmer claimed he was trying to find a consensus, but wouldn’t actually address any of the issues. He was instead "bollocked"
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico You know. I've got to be honest. I'm starting to have my doubts as to how accurate that 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast is going to prove.
...infuriating when news stories focus on worst (v unlikely) scenario and then blame spim when it doesn't happen. Often ignoring that things are still quite bad even if they weren't worse
SPI-M said its R=1.5 and R=1.1 cases encompassed the "likely" envelope - ie covered the central 55-70% most likely scenarios. That means they said there was a 15-22.5% probability the number wld be *higher* than 7k/day.
I've read through the paper repeatedly (did so when it came out and pulled my hair out at the headlines) and I can't see this 15-22.5% probability mentioned.
"Four of these same models have further been used to explore the potential impact of a range of scenarios following changes in transmission. These scenarios assume changes in behaviour result in R values of 1.1, 1.5, or 2.0 on 6th September (In each of these scenarios, R drops over time after 6th September as vaccination and infection reduce the number of people who remain susceptible), and are run for a further eight weeks. These scenarios are shown in Figure 1 (R=1.1 – green; 1.5 – blue; 2.0 – red) for England’s hospital admissions.
SPI-M-O deems the scenario where R = 2.0 (red) to be an extreme trajectory for the epidemic over the next few weeks; it is a possible outcome, but highly unlikely. A scenario of this scale might be more likely were waning immunity to play a greater role (see paragraph 17 above) or if a new variant of concern were to emerge. In contrast, a scenario of R = 1.1 (green) is much more possible through a range of many different situations. This range of R values, however, is not dissimilar to those seen for cases in Scotland in recent weeks.
The two scenarios of R = 1.1 and R = 1.5 attempt to provide an envelope which contains the likely epidemic trajectory over the next couple of months. Even in the R =1.1 scenario, a large number of COVID-19 hospital admissions (up to around 2,000 a day) in England for a potentially protracted period of time is projected. Due to the uncertainties already discussed, it is not possible to project more accurately or further into the future. If combined with other winter pressures or seasonal effects; this could lead to a difficult few months for the health and care sector."
Personally, at the time, I viewed the statement that "a scenario of R = 1.1 (green) is much more possible through a range of many different situations" to be pointing pretty strongly at "look at the green one" Which, at September 21st, had 900-1400 with a central value of 1000 projected.
Describing it as "a 7000 hospitalisations per day forecast" is unworthy of anyone trying to analyse what was actually projected or said. Rhetoric rather than reason.
EDIT: In addition, calling it "A 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast" when the paper states:
"The projections represent what the trajectory might be if the epidemic continued to follow the trends seen in the latest available data up to 6th September. They are neither forecasts nor predictions and cannot fully reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data" ... is just being an arse. (Note that the bolding was actually in the paper itself when released)
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
I’ve still got the dried lentils I bought ahead of the first brexit date.
My panic buy food of choice is porridge. I reckon you could live for weeks on a few decent sized bags of porridge oats.
I reckon there are still people who have those bog rolls and mega bags of pasta from 18 months ago!
Why do peeps always panic buy pasta? I know it keeps for years, but so does rice. And what exactly are they going to eat with the pasta when it all goes 'The Road'? Rat?
They've also panic purchased chargrilled aubergine, capers and olives right?
I live next door to a petrol station.I’m hearing quite a lot of tooting horns at the moment.
The only surprise is that Peston didn’t cause this run on the fuel.
Shell/BP announce a few stations may have a supply problem, the press and media jump on it, and hey Preston we have panic buying
There is no shortage of fuel and to be fair the media are trying to row back but they panicked the country in the first place
If we think back to the stupid scenes at start of lockdown MKI, apparently there really wasn't actually that much of an uptick, about 10% increase, which caught the retailers out, but then the media megaphone amplifies the issue.
What beats me is that in about five days the petrol stations will still have petrol and people will still think they did the right thing by panic buying.
What beats me is that in a year's time, 99.999% of the houses in the country will not have burned down, been struck by lightning or otherwise ceased to exist, and the householders will still think they did the right thing by paying for house insurance.
We don’t tend to run out of insurance if we all try and buy at the same time though...
Christ all fucking mighty. You make a point so crashingly obvious you fear you are insulting PB's collective intelligence by making it, and this happens.
Tell you what, we can all stop posting and leave the floor to you. It’s a fecking discussion. Don’t like my posts, ignore them. I won’t care.
OK, let me spell it out. The analogy is: the difference between me filling up my car next Tuesday when I would normally expect to, vs filling it up today when I am driving past a petrol station anyway and the tank is half full, represents a tiny investment in extra effort, which is equivalent to the relatively tiny cost of an insurance premium, and protects me against the relatively tiny possibility that in 5 days time there will still be a fuel shortage. Except the investment is much less and the danger much greater than in the house insurance analogy. A value bet in other words.
Clear now?
No one out there thinks ‘they’ are panicking. They are all being rational, like yourself. You are insuring yourself against the problem you are helping to create. But anyone rushing out before they need is doing exactly that, just as in March 2020.
Comments
And doesn't exist anyways.
This really is an open goal for a Labour Conference week.
Can you imagine what Blair, Smith or Wilson would do with this news?
Not pass back to the keeper.
In other shock news, bear shits in woods.
Edit - Just thinking about it, I expect Sainsbury's will go in with the biggest offer and leave Asda high and dry now that the old contracts are cancelled. It makes sense for them to do it and Sainsbury's is probably in the stronger position out of the two.
As the Golgafrincham solution isn’t available, that seems a perfectly acceptable second best.
Or so brim full with all the cards the driver cant get to the steering wheel
they need to make alternate arrangements. The administrator has been involved for a few weeks even though it isn't formally in administration yet.
Hard to "just renegotiate contracts" as suggested above when PWC are already involved.
Lol
I was also listening to a much more up to daye lecture last night, as it happens - at least three different lineages of theropod dinosaurs had flight, not just the birds. I think this report must refer to the primary research paper.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/dinosaurs-evolved-flight-least-three-times-180977883/
So "going bust" is a euphemism for dumping an unprofitable contract.
As an example, go to Sainsburys and say "we're putting our costs up 20%". That isn't something that will go through on the nod. And if the haulier have already called in PwC are you negotiating with the haulier or with their PwC advisors, and with what guarantees this new contract will be worth the paper its written on?
Its also 15p a litre more expensive than the Coop less than a mile away
The first is a place where an initial laissez-faire attitude resulted in a big negative economic impact, lots more deaths than peers, and a belated imposition of local lockdowns. It is a place where only 32% of voters think "the government has done a good job of handling the Coronavirus".
The other is a mythical place that Unherd and the Spectator write about frequently and gushingly.
Ultimately the supermarket(s) will end up owning this. Assuming there is enough left for them to want to.
The government shouldn't be getting involved. The supermarkets should.
I gave them to the local food bank but they asked me to take them back.
Johnson is keen to link these wage increases to Brexit and the end of free movement. He believes this is what people voted for, and that the wage increases are an example of Brexit delivering. When a group of influential businessmen tried to bend his ear this month about labour shortages, Johnson simply asked if they had tried paying people more. He regarded that as the end of the conversation.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-spectre-of-the-seventies-haunts-the-tories-0vb8cpb03
Utterly unbelievable
Useless nonentity too busy starting an internal factional fight
CDU/CSU: 16% (-1)
SPD: 14%
Greens: 10%
Other: 12% (-1)
None: 48% (+2)
https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1441505992592691204?s=21
- YOU are “a selfish hoarder”
- I am “popping out to fill up the tank just in case”
- https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1441502631831105536
SKS is off soon hopefully
Personally I would settle for a Centrist leader with a bit of political nouse.
SKS has none
For Labour's sake I hope Starmer wins through on this
Amazing, isn't it?
https://i0.wp.com/skwawkbox.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/redblue-labour-brighton.png?ssl=1
Clear now?
There is no shortage of fuel and to be fair the media are trying to row back but they panicked the country in the first place
The only way there will ever be an indyref2 allowed is if there is a UK Labour government, in which case McLeish would probably back the Union again anyway and Starmer's No + devomax offer in such a scenario
Ryder Cup: Bryson DeChambeau hits 'huge' 417-yard drive - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/golf/58686340
WEAK WEAK WEAK
"Four of these same models have further been used to explore the potential impact of a range of scenarios following changes in transmission. These scenarios assume changes in behaviour result in R values of 1.1, 1.5, or 2.0 on 6th September (In each of these scenarios, R drops over time after 6th September as vaccination and infection reduce the number of people who remain susceptible), and are run for a further eight weeks. These scenarios are shown in Figure 1 (R=1.1 – green; 1.5 – blue; 2.0 – red) for England’s hospital admissions.
SPI-M-O deems the scenario where R = 2.0 (red) to be an extreme trajectory for the epidemic over the next few weeks; it is a possible outcome, but highly unlikely. A scenario of this scale might be more likely were waning immunity to play a greater role (see paragraph 17 above) or if a new variant of concern were to emerge. In contrast, a scenario of R = 1.1 (green) is much more possible through a range of many different situations. This range of R values, however, is not dissimilar to those seen for cases in Scotland in recent weeks.
The two scenarios of R = 1.1 and R = 1.5 attempt to provide an envelope which contains the likely epidemic trajectory over the next couple of months. Even in the R =1.1 scenario, a large number of COVID-19 hospital admissions (up to around 2,000 a day) in England for a potentially protracted period of time is projected. Due to the uncertainties already discussed, it is not possible to project more accurately or further into the future. If combined with other winter pressures or seasonal effects; this could lead to a difficult few months for the health and care sector."
Personally, at the time, I viewed the statement that "a scenario of R = 1.1 (green) is much more possible through a range of many different situations" to be pointing pretty strongly at "look at the green one"
Which, at September 21st, had 900-1400 with a central value of 1000 projected.
Describing it as "a 7000 hospitalisations per day forecast" is unworthy of anyone trying to analyse what was actually projected or said. Rhetoric rather than reason.
EDIT: In addition, calling it "A 7,000 hospitalisations per day forecast" when the paper states:
"The projections represent what the trajectory might be if the epidemic continued to follow the trends seen in the latest available data up to 6th September. They are neither forecasts nor predictions and cannot fully reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data"
... is just being an arse.
(Note that the bolding was actually in the paper itself when released)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/golf/58684764