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That YouGov LAB lead poll is increasingly looking like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
That YouGov LAB lead poll is increasingly looking like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
Back in mid July I wrote here that backing LAB to get a poll lead during the remaining part of 2021 looked like a good bet. First amongst my reason was there was always the possibility of an outlier. The context for the post was a then new Smarkets market on when Labour would next get a poll lead.
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Time will tell.
CHB won his bet though.
Am thinking electricity shortages in China may be the most important ones.
Not by tomorrow it won't be.
The other thing I said which you might have missed is that I remember being taken by Dad to see a Deltic at Waverley Station abd being allowed inside by the driver - including the engine compartment. I'd just assumed when thinking about it it was to keep a small boy happy - but it only dawned on me when writing the address for his funeral that of course the opportunity to see the same engines as in his minesweeper would have been irresistible and an instant open sesame to the driver.
BTW ISTR the Ton class minesweepers were one of the biggest defence programmes ever in the UK - I believe surpassing the Polaris deterrent? The fear of mine warfare if the cold war turned hot. Many were built and then parked in estuaries with temporary roofs, like Nelson-era frigates 'in ordinary'.
It seems that 25% of the Tory vote has the memory of a goldfish - they react to a tap on the fish tank's glass and then within a week or so completely forget about the reason why there were annoyed.
Now they look like compounding that decision by caving in and allowing people to avoid paying the market rate for jobs to be done.
Two strikes now in baseball terms. Its not looking good - but then we see Starmer and there's nothing better there.
Having actually done a lot of hiring, I have never found that developers in London were particularly cheaper than in other locations (indeed, they were almost certainly a bit more expensive), but that was made up by having such a deep pool of talent to choose from. One could get three or four good guys in Estonia at a significant discount to London, but the labour pool was shallow. Attempt to hire fifty people and you rapidly ran up against capacity constraints.
And, indeed, the statistics largely back this up. Median incomes in the UK have done rather better than the US and a little worse than Germany.
Where I do think there has been a significant impact has been on the quality of life of those on lower incomes, in particular driven by rising housing costs. A couple on 70% of average London incomes is going to be either commuting from afar (not cheap, terrible impact on family life), or will struggle to ever get onto the housing ladder - and having the resources to have their own place and raise children, will be extremely challenging. The issue goes beyond housing, too. It includes overcrowded transport, schools and GPs offices. Simply, a lot of people were looking to access the same range of services, at the same time that an ageing population removed funding from a lot of these.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1441395966838407173?s=20
Xi's faction is not the only one in the CCP. Not by a long chalk.
"Manager, Shell Retail (UK)".
I leave that out there to those in the know
Hence Rishi will also likely need a tax cut before the next general election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/24/angela-rayner-questions-starmer-labour-leadership-rule-changes
He can't sack her, so he may have to back away from her and others somewhat. If Labour can get a muted peace and deferment on this issue to some indefinite point in the future, and the polls tank for the tories, as they might, he might still have a chance at a better lead-in to next week.
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1441411150219026432?s=20
It'll be interesting to see how and indeed if the polling in Iceland and Germany reflects the final results over the weekend.
This is all part of a process which may be long or short as those who previously supported the Government have doubts, then become disillusioned, look for alternatives and then finally commit to changing their vote.
The unusual politics of the EU Referendum and Covid have created an atypical period since 2016 - as with so much else, it seems, what we will return to you isn't what it was before but a "new normal".
Flooding the market with cheap labour as a policy was the problem, that we seem to have resolved
If you don't want to fill 100k vacancies then yes fair enough don't raise prices to the appropriate market rate. But if you do, you charge whatever you need to and pay whatever you need to.
That's the going rate in the USA. I see no reason it shouldn't be the going rate in this country. Do you?
Labour's was 38.3 and now it's 35.1
China has opted for economic imperialism in Africa - to be fair, the West has not responded in kind or certainly not to the same scale. I suppose one could argue the Chinese are strictly amoral about this - they don't care who is in charge as long as stability is maintained for their economic progress.
is the rates/occupations
If for a few years wages rise by 9%, CPI prices by 5% and house prices by 1% then within five years there'd have been a 31% real term reduction in house price to earnings ratios - but nobody would have gone into negative equity.
We need wage inflation. Oh and it'd deflate debt to GDP and it'd boost the Exchequer via fiscal drag.
It comes down to removing market distortions, continuing to boost supply, and stop inflating the demand side.
To qualify for a Skilled Worker visa, you must:
work for a UK employer that’s been approved by the Home Office
have a ‘certificate of sponsorship’ from your employer with information about the role you’ve been offered in the UK to do a job that’s on the list of eligible occupations
Be paid a minimum salary - how much depends on the type of work you do. The specific eligibility depends on your job.
You must have a confirmed job offer before you apply for your visa.
You must be able to speak, read, write and understand English. You’ll usually need to prove your knowledge of English when you apply.
If you’re not eligible for a Skilled Worker visa
You may be eligible for another type of visa to work in the UK.
Your visa can last for up to 5 years before you need to extend it. You’ll need to apply to extend or update your visa when it expires or if you change jobs or employer.
You can apply to extend your visa as many times as you like as long as you still meet the eligibility requirements.
After 5 years, you may be able to apply to settle permanently in the UK (also known as ‘indefinite leave to remain’). This gives you the right to live, work and study here for as long as you like, and apply for benefits if you’re eligible.
Of those 2019 Labour voters who gave us a party vote intention (i.e. excluding those who will not vote or are currently unsure), 78% said they would stick with Labour. At this point 11% would vote Green instead, 4% would now vote Conservative, and another 4% would vote Liberal Democrat. A mere 1% would switch to Reform UK. This suggests that Labour face their biggest thread from the left – specifically the Greens – when it comes to shoring up their voter base from the last election.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/23/labour-are-struggling-make-big-inroads-voters-are-
Taxes should be cut and wages rise, besides as wages rise that's more money for the exchequer anyway.
When a pollster continuously produces results close to the average, it means something funky is going on. It could mean a pollster is not reporting outlier polls or somehow weighting their polls to match the average. That's bad science. Pollsters must and should have faith in their methods
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/outlier-polls-analysis/index.html
Why is the going rate for such drivers in the USA such an atrocious, horrific suggestion in this country? `
You must meet all of the following requirements to be eligible for a Skilled Worker visa:
your job is eligible for this visa
you’ll be working for a UK employer that’s been approved by the Home Office
you’ll be paid at least the minimum salary for the type of work you’ll be doing
The minimum salary for the type of work you’ll be doing is whichever is the highest out of the following 3 options:
£25,600 per year
£10.10 per hour
the ‘going rate’ for the type of work you’ll be doing
I remember my mother queuing for three gallons of petrol (rationed) in 1974 and my father earnestly predicting there would be riots if petrol went above £1 a gallon.
Strangely, twenty one years on from the 2000 crisis, we still incredibly dependent on and vulnerable to any interruption to petrol supplies.
https://twitter.com/cflav/status/1441365314256527360?s=19
A big chunk of the Florida housing market is based on massively federaply subsidised flood insurance.
"Up the workers!" says Red Phillo.
Fortunately, BENBATL broke the mile track record at Newmarket winning the Joel this afternoon - that's a performance we can all appreciate.
The wealthy want to live in or near the cities.
But they are filthy and seriously unhealthy due to industry and coal burning. So they try to address that, with knock-on effects of shortages. Equally, the Ponzi Scheme which is the housing market is wobbling, possibly critically.
Their answer right now is to try to prevent folk openly moaning. And attempt some Nationalist foreign policy culture war issue.
But there will come a flashpoint eventually. Especially if the tens of millions of migrant workers either lose their jobs, or are forced to their home Provinces.
And then it will be Tiananmen 2. Or Xi for the correctional farm.
it's perfectly possible that the Labour lead wasn't an outlier, but was just a momentary spasm of emotion. We can't really ever know.
The Lib Dems are back.
Hospital numbers in…
That’s a trend like to see. Almost below 5000 in hospital now.
https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1441422590132768770?s=20
If it's youngsters getting infected, and they're not passing it on to oldies....hospital rates will continue to fall - and in a largely vaccinated population, the hospitalisation rate is what we should be paying attention to.
But what we have been seeing for a while now is a fall in cases in the vaccinated and rise in the unvaccinated.
A bit like Brian Johnston or Henry Blofeld for the cricket
Looking back at the last few decades both of those outcomes look a trifle unlikely.
I can just about believe that we might get richer, that, finally, businesses will invest and productivity will increase. It could happen.
I find it much harder to believe that we wouldn't funnel most of this increased wealth into housing.
There are 38 million cars in the UK. If we assume they all have 15 gallon petrol tanks, and that at any time they are normally 60% filled, that means there are 342 million gallons of petrol sitting in peoples' cars normally.
Now, if people panic about petrol availability, and everyone wants their car filled to (on average) 80% capacity to deal with the risk of shortages, then you need to find 114 million gallons of petrol.
That is about three million barrels of oil. (Indeed, that's based on the rather lazy assumption that there's a 0.8:1 ratio of petrol to crude oil, and the real number is probably less.)
Three million barrels of oil is a lot of oil.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1441427927728418816?s=20
Bring in measures soon or risk 7,000 daily Covid hospitalisations, Sage warns
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/bring-in-measures-soon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns
https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1441233874340646919/photo/1
I can't see any way of resolving that issue (as banks will lend whatever they can given the fact they have virtually unlimited access to cash) beyond an additional tax on the owner of property. Which is one reason why I want a Land value / wealth tax based on a low percentage 0.25% say of current house prices.
Next I would move to aggressively open up food to imports from abroad, for exactly the same reasons. Someone earning £60,000/year spends doesn't spend 4x the amount on food, someone earning £15,000/year does.
Finally, I would unify NI and income tax, and work to remove all those silly kinks where removal of benefits result in 100% marginal tax rates.
One recruiter claimed they had received five times fewer applications for driver jobs since the vote for Brexit. https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1441431622100815879/photo/1