Popcorn moment soon on GMB. A live interview with Shamima Begum who will demand Boris Johnson brings her to the UK to try her for any alleged crimes under the terror act.
I mean, the mood music was clearly Newsom's way, but I'm shocked how well he's done. It looks like he's even carrying places like Fresno Valley, which is a Republican stronghold.
What's really interesting is how weak the Recall turnout has been - it looks like it's going to be well down on what Cox managed in 2018.
Larry Eldar has been the most visible GOP candidate, he's been on Fox more times in theblast mobth than all the other candidates combined.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3% in the year to August 2021, up from 2.1% in July.
Driven by falls last August due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, the rise will likely be temporary http://ow.ly/U5Dc50Ga9LU
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
BIG jump in UK CPI inflation. Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug. Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997) https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438022047259582467/photo/1
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438026142901022721/photo/1
Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.
Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.
And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.
Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.
Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.
The question is really, what chance?
And then you have to ask youself some questions:
Will Boris be PM at the next election?
Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.
Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?
Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.
Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?
Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.
So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.
.85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.
Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.
Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no. Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.
To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.
If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
Not only this there’s the trans issue and trans activism issue that he ignores too that @cyclefree refers to a few posts above.
Also the anti-Trans activism issue that too many people ignore.
What would that be ?
How many MPs are hounded out of their jobs or threatened physically for their stance ? How many trans women are subjected to violence from gender critical feminists ? It really is all one way traffic the other way and gender critical feminists are not anti trans. They are pro women and wish to protect their gains over the patriarchy.
How are gender critical feminists anti trans activists ?
Lots of MPs get abuse. I'm slightly sceptical about her claims in this regard.
But let's get real about this for the moment. Far too many trans people suffer abuse. According to Stonewall:
"Two in five trans people have had a hate crime committed against them in the last year, and two in five trans young people have attempted suicide. One in eight trans people have been physically attacked by colleagues or customers at work."
This is the other side of the story some people ignore. The entire mood music - on this august forum, even - encourages this. Trans people are odd. Strange. They're a danger to women.
And let's take prison. There's lots of talk about the dangers trans women may pose to women in jail. Yet those people never talk about the larger problem: the dangers trans people face in jail: for instance 11 trans people abused in male jails in 2019, with only one trans person believed to have abused someone.
So you have one person being an abuser, and that's where the talk is - witness the hideous ?Karen White?. But the 11 people being abused are ignored.
I don't like the hate-spreading language used by either side on this debate: people are angry on both sides, for understandable reasons. I don't care for TERFs. I don't care for the people arguing with them: both sides appear to be thriving on argument and hate.
But in the middle are lots of trans people who need understanding and compassion. And they're not getting it.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3% in the year to August 2021, up from 2.1% in July.
Driven by falls last August due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, the rise will likely be temporary http://ow.ly/U5Dc50Ga9LU
I’m astonished how low inflation is given the inexorable rise we are seeing in raw materials and goods as well as wages starting to increase.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
There's lots of reasons to think that it will be a temporary effect, related to the pandemic. We had a massive drop in demand, prices went down, and supply capacity went down. Now we have a lot of pent-up demand being released, and supply isn't there - but in most cases you would expect supply to recover, the pent-up demand will be expended, and so the mismatch between demand and supply should ease considerably.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
An increase in housing costs would indeed cause problems. With people on fixed rate mortgages it might take a while to fee through, so could choke of new house-buying, and hence building.
It’s an interesting article in that it seems to make the assumption that “intelligence” (for want of a better term) is equally distributed amongst the children of various income groups, and so it is ridiculous to think that the children of doctors (for example) might be not only more motivated to want to be doctors themselves but also to have inherited some of the abilities that would make them good doctors.
The idea that bright people are more likely to have bright children (you know, evolution) seems to have passed some thinkers by…
On the contrary side I did say at the time that Rishi announced the freezing of income tax thresholds for five years that it was a sign that they expected/hoped for a large amount of inflation to increase the tax take by fiscal drag, also inflating away the debt.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
We have historically low interest rates which have been a blow for a considerable time to the far greater number of people who have savings than have mortgages and higher interest rates may well help in the longer term if it brings rampant house price inflation under a degree of control.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
There's lots of reasons to think that it will be a temporary effect, related to the pandemic. We had a massive drop in demand, prices went down, and supply capacity went down. Now we have a lot of pent-up demand being released, and supply isn't there - but in most cases you would expect supply to recover, the pent-up demand will be expended, and so the mismatch between demand and supply should ease considerably.
Yep - it’s a big if. However, if we have structural supply chain issues - as we seem to currently - then the issues may linger a little longer than otherwise would be the case.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
There's lots of reasons to think that it will be a temporary effect, related to the pandemic. We had a massive drop in demand, prices went down, and supply capacity went down. Now we have a lot of pent-up demand being released, and supply isn't there - but in most cases you would expect supply to recover, the pent-up demand will be expended, and so the mismatch between demand and supply should ease considerably.
As well as rebound demand there has been hundreds of billions of government spending injected into the economy, and similar vast sums in other major economies.
If inflation doesn't occur as a result, then economists will have to go back to the drawing board.
Wow, didn’t expect it to be 2/1 in favour of the Govenor, that’s better than the most optimistic of forecasts.
Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,
Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
Larry Elder could not have been a worse Republican candidate. My favourite of his off the cuff policies were:
- Suggesting slave owners deserved compensation - Saying that of course he'd appoint a Republican to replace Feinstein
The correct responses to the questions are "no", and "we need a Senator that represents all of California, and I'm not going to pick purely on partisan grounds".
The Democrats were very lucky that Elder managed to grab all the headlines early on. They were also lucky that the State has avoided the latest Covid wave that engulfed Florida and the Deep South.
Of course in Britain, we did compensate slave owners, and not slaves!
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
There's lots of reasons to think that it will be a temporary effect, related to the pandemic. We had a massive drop in demand, prices went down, and supply capacity went down. Now we have a lot of pent-up demand being released, and supply isn't there - but in most cases you would expect supply to recover, the pent-up demand will be expended, and so the mismatch between demand and supply should ease considerably.
This will only happen once supply issues relating to raw materials and shipping are sorted. At the moment they show no signs of the increase in demand over supply slowing down. A lot of it is due to excess demand post covid. In a couple of years time it should be in a better position and that is when they are forecasting chip supply to be up and running to meet demand
The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...
7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.
Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 3h How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷♂️
There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.
We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
My organisation- which thinks it is being terribly positive and leading the way by going back to the office one day a week, in certain circumstances - also requires mask use ' when moving around the office'. Though not at desks or in meeting rooms. It's as if it has taken all the purely performative bits of the last year's restrictions as guidelines.
Our policy is (I) minority of your time WFH; and (ii) no TWATS*
Running around 60% utilisation on any given day. Supposed to wear masks in common parts but no one does…
* technical term meaning you can’t WFH every Monday and Friday
Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.
Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.
And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.
Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.
Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.
The question is really, what chance?
And then you have to ask youself some questions:
Will Boris be PM at the next election?
Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.
Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?
Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.
Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?
Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.
So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.
.85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.
Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.
Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no. Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.
To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.
If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
Not only this there’s the trans issue and trans activism issue that he ignores too that @cyclefree refers to a few posts above.
Also the anti-Trans activism issue that too many people ignore.
If you want an example of a completely unwinnable battle for a political party - Trans and anti-Trans activism is one such battle.
Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.
Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.
And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.
Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
There is also the factor of what the Tory MP has done since election - nothing. And I do mean literally nothing. Hasn't made her maiden speech. Hasn't asked a question. Unlike other recent by-election MPs she has contributed literally nothing. She has done more as a Hambleton Borough Councillor than she has as an MP.
I understand entirely why people voted Tory in Pools and tipped it as soon as the byelection was called. But the party cannot keep selecting wasters and fools as backbench placeholders. As I keep saying punters in the red wall are voting for Brexit and for Tories expecting delivery of change. They quickly tire of MPs who string them along.
Jill Mortimer was literally parachuted into a seat she has no link to and has gone straight back to representing her council ward in preference to her parliamentary constituents.
Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!
The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
BBC reporting CNN has called it for Newsom
They missed the CNN part of it in the 7am 6Music report - which I noticed because there was zero chance of votes being counted in an hour.
Now I have no problem with forecasts being reported but its essential that the source is reported if it's not 100% official.
The problem, as with so many American elections, is that it won’t be 100% official for about a fortnight!
That said, it’s currently 65/35, with an estimated 68% of the votes counted, so getting close to a mathematical impossibility - unless a couple of million Republicans put postal ballots in the mail last night.
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
When I was interviewed for medical school, the first few questions were about who else in my family were doctors. A friend is not a doctor but his father is, and his brother, and his wife, and her siblings, and one child. This goes far beyond any genetic aptitude for medicine.
Now, it might be that bright children from poorer backgrounds do not realise a career in medicine or law is within their grasp, whereas those from medical families think it is the natural order of things. (Pop quiz – what does a solicitor do all day?)
But there are additional obstacles. One is the personal statement. How easy is it to get relevant experience to pad your application if you just need to ask a favour of mum, dad, or aunt? Another is medical school interviews. Probably the biggest is there are just not enough medical school places, which is why the NHS needs to raid foreign, often poorer countries for their doctors.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
We have historically low interest rates which have been a blow for a considerable time to the far greater number of people who have savings than have mortgages and higher interest rates may well help in the longer term if it brings rampant house price inflation under a degree of control.
The inflation spike is likely temporarily, as the ONS notes (I trust the ONS economists over Ed Conway, as to the reasons for the spike), and should sort itself out over the next year or so as manufacturing and logistics capacity recovers.
Interest rates do need to start ticking up though, even a quarter percent every six months is better than nothing. Asset prices are going to keep booming while rates are on the floor.
Cabinet is on reshuffle red alert, partly because the official drivers have been told to ready to ferry ministers at short notice. “I am hearing it could come later today and tomorrow” said one senior member of the government. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1438035709160476683
Cabinet is on reshuffle red alert, partly because the official drivers have been told to ready to ferry ministers at short notice. “I am hearing it could come later today and tomorrow” said one senior member of the government. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1438035709160476683
Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!
The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
BBC reporting CNN has called it for Newsom
They missed the CNN part of it in the 7am 6Music report - which I noticed because there was zero chance of votes being counted in an hour.
Now I have no problem with forecasts being reported but its essential that the source is reported if it's not 100% official.
The problem, as with so many American elections, is that it won’t be 100% official for about a fortnight!
That said, it’s currently 65/35, with an estimated 68% of the votes counted, so getting close to a mathematical impossibility - unless a couple of million Republicans put postal ballots in the mail last night.
Oh I know that the result is right, now I know what the source is but the lack of the source meant I was going hmm seems a bit early.
I suspect it's an example of too much knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Cabinet is on reshuffle red alert, partly because the official drivers have been told to ready to ferry ministers at short notice. “I am hearing it could come later today and tomorrow” said one senior member of the government. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1438035709160476683
Kremlinology, Westminster style.
Wasn't this covered in an old Yes, Minister episode..
There are some real serious inflationary pressures not about to go away:
1. Energy prices are shooting up. As we don't have enough generating capacity it isn't in our control to bring them back down 2. Commodity prices are shooting up. Stuff that we either need for manufacturing or consume costs more globally and the up pressures are not easing off any time soon 3. Climate impact on harvests skyrocketing prices. I flagged the threat to pasta supply caused by the failed Canadian harvest - oats will be the same. Where we have had a good harvest largely in the UK we're losing the upside by not being able to pick it 4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely 5. Wage inflation. We cannot sustain repeated 20% pay rises for crisis staff like drivers. You cannot pay your way out of job crisis unless there is a pool of labour ready to enter the sector. Same with care homes. Same with food production.
At the very least, the "there is nothing to see here, please disperse" commentators are showing that dogma trumps evidence...
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
When I was interviewed for medical school, the first few questions were about who else in my family were doctors. A friend is not a doctor but his father is, and his brother, and his wife, and her siblings, and one child. This goes far beyond any genetic aptitude for medicine.
Now, it might be that bright children from poorer backgrounds do not realise a career in medicine or law is within their grasp, whereas those from medical families think it is the natural order of things. (Pop quiz – what does a solicitor do all day?)
But there are additional obstacles. One is the personal statement. How easy is it to get relevant experience to pad your application if you just need to ask a favour of mum, dad, or aunt? Another is medical school interviews. Probably the biggest is there are just not enough medical school places, which is why the NHS needs to raid foreign, often poorer countries for their doctors.
I have been doing medical school entrance interviews for well over a decade and never heard anything like such a question asked. Neither was I asked anything similar at any of my interviews back in the early Eighties.
Incidentally we don't read or score the personal statement either. Our statistical analysis is that it doesn't add anything to the admission decision process.
There certainly is quite a strong tradition of medicine in some families, particularly so amongst my immigrant colleagues and their children. Ditto too for private education, as nearly all of my immigrant colleagues were privately educated in their birth countries, so see that as the norm for their children here.
Yes, doctors can seem posh, but a very large part of that is as a culture of self improvement. When you look at UK born doctors they are often from modest backgrounds.
If you really want to see where posh people dominate, look at the media, journalism and the arts.
Different food labelling rules may apply in different parts of the UK for the first time because the SNP Government has refused to commit to a UK-wide approach with new post-Brexit powers.
I note that dishy Rishi is to launch the Thames Freeport today. In what way is (a) this freeport different to all the other EU freeports and (b) what does it enhance from a trade perspective vs EEA/CU membership previously?
Genuinely curious. "A Freeport" being one of the selling points post brexit. What is bigger and better than the status quo ante?
Here’s one reason to believe the inflation rise may be temporary: the main contributing factor was a BIG jump in prices, this year vs last, in restaurants. And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out. Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely
The kicking into the long grass of any checks on imports is an interesting one. It seems to be a realisation that we have still not prepared the necessary infrastructure, staffing or processes to implement Brexit. It also is a recognition that it would deliver a hammer blow to fragile logistics network.
Perhaps it is dawning on those in power that Brexit is a crap idea.
Different food labelling rules may apply in different parts of the UK for the first time because the SNP Government has refused to commit to a UK-wide approach with new post-Brexit powers.
Its all getting very silly. They aren't making a decision until they have consulted industry. Who will tell them "stop pissing about". Its already bad enough that labels will be different in the GB and NI zones. Unless the Westminster government imposes different labels just to be different I am pretty confident everyone will use the same label for every market.
There are some real serious inflationary pressures not about to go away:
1. Energy prices are shooting up. As we don't have enough generating capacity it isn't in our control to bring them back down 2. Commodity prices are shooting up. Stuff that we either need for manufacturing or consume costs more globally and the up pressures are not easing off any time soon 3. Climate impact on harvests skyrocketing prices. I flagged the threat to pasta supply caused by the failed Canadian harvest - oats will be the same. Where we have had a good harvest largely in the UK we're losing the upside by not being able to pick it 4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely 5. Wage inflation. We cannot sustain repeated 20% pay rises for crisis staff like drivers. You cannot pay your way out of job crisis unless there is a pool of labour ready to enter the sector. Same with care homes. Same with food production.
At the very least, the "there is nothing to see here, please disperse" commentators are showing that dogma trumps evidence...
No one is saying there’s nothing to see there are two views. One is it is temporary and one is it will be longer term. Currently central banks view is this will be temporary as the economy restarts after covid. We shall see.
Trump got 31% in 2016 in California and 34% in 2020 so the Recall vote it seems has basically gone along party lines in the end with only Republicans voting for it (No is now on 35% with 66% in).
Personally I think recalls are a waste of time unless the governor has done something criminal or there is a truly outstanding candidate to replace them eg as Schwarzanneger was in 2003, neither condition of which applied here.
Otherwise just let the governor complete their term as the voters have clearly decided to do with Newsom
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438041507466985472/photo/1
Cabinet is on reshuffle red alert, partly because the official drivers have been told to ready to ferry ministers at short notice. “I am hearing it could come later today and tomorrow” said one senior member of the government. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1438035709160476683
Kremlinology, Westminster style.
Wasn't this covered in an old Yes, Minister episode..
Everything worth knowing about politics was covered in Yes, Minister.
4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely
The kicking into the long grass of any checks on imports is an interesting one. It seems to be a realisation that we have still not prepared the necessary infrastructure, staffing or processes to implement Brexit. It also is a recognition that it would deliver a hammer blow to fragile logistics network.
Perhaps it is dawning on those in power that Brexit is a crap idea.
The food industry is getting increasingly frustrated with the dogmatic bullshit they are being fed. UK standards are EU standards. What is more the UK is committed to increasing those standards, same as the EU. What is more more there is not going to be any fundamental divergence between those increases in standards to create a problem.
At our insistence we have imposed full paperwork and standards checks on identical products. On standards that are aligned and will remain sufficiently aligned. And unlike the French failed to build the customs points, hire the officers or build the computer system to actually do so. Creating huge costs to import but huger costs to export for literally no reason other than dogmatic theory that the evil EU may at some future point impose punative standards rises on the EU27 to punish the UKGB
On top of everything else, here’s another inflationary side-effect of the semiconductor shortage. Not enough chips to go into new cars means not enough new cars which means used car prices are going through the roof (dotted line compares price growth this yr with previous years)https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438043083887763458/photo/1
4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely
The kicking into the long grass of any checks on imports is an interesting one. It seems to be a realisation that we have still not prepared the necessary infrastructure, staffing or processes to implement Brexit. It also is a recognition that it would deliver a hammer blow to fragile logistics network.
Perhaps it is dawning on those in power that Brexit is a crap idea.
They've always known its a crap idea. They also know that it wins them power. The fact that the latter trumps the former in their calculations tells you something important about their character and fitness for office.
There are some real serious inflationary pressures not about to go away:
1. Energy prices are shooting up. As we don't have enough generating capacity it isn't in our control to bring them back down 2. Commodity prices are shooting up. Stuff that we either need for manufacturing or consume costs more globally and the up pressures are not easing off any time soon 3. Climate impact on harvests skyrocketing prices. I flagged the threat to pasta supply caused by the failed Canadian harvest - oats will be the same. Where we have had a good harvest largely in the UK we're losing the upside by not being able to pick it 4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely 5. Wage inflation. We cannot sustain repeated 20% pay rises for crisis staff like drivers. You cannot pay your way out of job crisis unless there is a pool of labour ready to enter the sector. Same with care homes. Same with food production.
At the very least, the "there is nothing to see here, please disperse" commentators are showing that dogma trumps evidence...
No one is saying there’s nothing to see there are two views. One is it is temporary and one is it will be longer term. Currently central banks view is this will be temporary as the economy restarts after covid. We shall see.
When you are a central bank and you know there is no lever you can pull to retard inflation (such as raising interest rates) that don't immolate your economy, is it any surprise that they are absolutely unanimous that inflationary pressures are temporary?
Whilst we have some unique brexit issues such as massive wage spikes in a few sectors, this is largely a global issue. It would need global coordination, but all the major central banks have the same massive debt & low interest rates problem...
Jill Mortimer was literally parachuted into a seat she has no link to and has gone straight back to representing her council ward in preference to her parliamentary constituents.
Wow! Was she? I missed that - are there pictures/video?
Misuse of 'literally' drives me metaphorically* insane.
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
How many windows did you have to replace?
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
I note that dishy Rishi is to launch the Thames Freeport today. In what way is (a) this freeport different to all the other EU freeports and (b) what does it enhance from a trade perspective vs EEA/CU membership previously?
Genuinely curious. "A Freeport" being one of the selling points post brexit. What is bigger and better than the status quo ante?
Freeports undermine your tax base and distort economic activity. They are only popular with people who want to fight economic geography (rather than getting on their bike) and people who want to undermine the tax base as a first step to cutting public services.
4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely
The kicking into the long grass of any checks on imports is an interesting one. It seems to be a realisation that we have still not prepared the necessary infrastructure, staffing or processes to implement Brexit. It also is a recognition that it would deliver a hammer blow to fragile logistics network.
Perhaps it is dawning on those in power that Brexit is a crap idea.
The food industry is getting increasingly frustrated with the dogmatic bullshit they are being fed. UK standards are EU standards. What is more the UK is committed to increasing those standards, same as the EU. What is more more there is not going to be any fundamental divergence between those increases in standards to create a problem.
At our insistence we have imposed full paperwork and standards checks on identical products. On standards that are aligned and will remain sufficiently aligned. And unlike the French failed to build the customs points, hire the officers or build the computer system to actually do so. Creating huge costs to import but huger costs to export for literally no reason other than dogmatic theory that the evil EU may at some future point impose punative standards rises on the EU27 to punish the UKGB
The truly impressive thing in terms of Johnsonian incompetence is that we are still not prepared for his "Oven Ready Deal" two years after it was announced, let alone No Deal.
Different food labelling rules may apply in different parts of the UK for the first time because the SNP Government has refused to commit to a UK-wide approach with new post-Brexit powers.
Unless the Westminster government imposes different labels just to be different I am pretty confident everyone will use the same label for every market.
It's the Scottish government which is refusing to commit to a UK wide approach.
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438041507466985472/photo/1
My father in law, who works in building, told us not to build an extension this autumn as materials are through the the roof. Yesterday he said it looks like prices are starting to come down
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
There is also a large amount of "I don't know about that", "No one around here does that" etc etc
It takes a strong push from the parents, I think, to go for success.
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
How many windows did you have to replace?
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
My house is just under twenty years old. It was built under the regulations at the time which, whilst not quite as stringent energy-wise as the current ones, still favoured energy saving.
So what windows did they put in this house? Nice, draught-free ones, designed to keep heat in?
Did they ****. They put in sash windows which are as draughty as anything, and leak heat like p*ss from a drunkard.
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
There is also a large amount of "I don't know about that", "No one around here does that" etc etc
It takes a strong push from the parents, I think, to go for success.
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
It will be less about energy efficiency and more about the hydrogen fuel potentially costing a lot more than natural gas. Ultimately there is a cost to decarbonise and the debate is how that cost is allocated.
At least a hydrogen boiler will keep your house warm and let you have a hot shower. I am less certain that you will have these facilities with an air source heat pump.
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438041507466985472/photo/1
My father in law, who works in building, told us not to build an extension this autumn as materials are through the the roof. Yesterday he said it looks like prices are starting to come down
I was laughing at one - an importer for a certain grade of steel was (almost certainly) trying to ramp the price by constraining supply. Then someone in government changed a rule and alot more steel came flooding in.
They are now whining that they have lost long term customers. After all, what is deliberately doubling the price between friends?
The arguments being deployed to justify the “far better than expected” performance against June/July Covid models, in a way that argues for a measure of new restrictions being imposed is a thing to behold.
Given the reality versus the models there’s no serious way the scientists can argue that the decision to open everything up was a mistake. But they are claiming that the outlier figures against the models are that they failed to anticipate the extent that behavioural changes wouldn’t match predictions (oh and “warm weather” - they obviously have barely stepped outside this “summer”!)
However our “reward” for all this is that they weren’t “wrong”, the surge in case numbers and hospitalisations has just been pushed into October and November when they will overwhelm the NHS.
The logical conclusion to their arguments is that the Government hasn’t actually done enough to drive people back to work etc in the summer to reduce impact in Autumn and winter! Or perhaps the models will all just be wrong again, and come the next iteration in mid October the headlines will be “last chance to save Christmas!”
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438041507466985472/photo/1
My father in law, who works in building, told us not to build an extension this autumn as materials are through the the roof. Yesterday he said it looks like prices are starting to come down
Yes, there were some good tentative signs that raw material shortages are beginning to ease recently. That will take another few months to feed into the finished product markets but like with everything else, this too shall pass. Everyone seems to be losing their heads believing that this is now a permanent state of affairs, it isn't.
Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!
The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
OK timezone difference I guess on that Tweet saying the election is tomorrow.
But yes the counting hasn't started yet and no early voting data has been released, so no analysis of the results could have happened yet!
Though the serious betting point is that it seems the Republican is getting his excuses in early as to why the recall failed. So maybe pile in on betting No for the recall? Though I don't know if you can get good odds on No now anyway?
It's likely his opponent will win. Under the new Republican orthodoxy, that is all the evidence you need. Once the result is out, that's definitive proof.
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
How many windows did you have to replace?
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
My house is just under twenty years old. It was built under the regulations at the time which, whilst not quite as stringent energy-wise as the current ones, still favoured energy saving.
So what windows did they put in this house? Nice, draught-free ones, designed to keep heat in?
Did they ****. They put in sash windows which are as draughty as anything, and leak heat like p*ss from a drunkard.
Sash windows can be built to be air tight, and keep heat in or out.
Careers like medicine do seem to have a hereditary nature, and I'm sure poshness plays a part in that, but I don't think it's the whole story. My neice starts at medical school in a few weeks. Her father, my brother in law, is a doctor. His father, my father in law, is a doctor too. My wife's other brother is a doctor as well (and so is his wife). My father in law came here from Sri Lanka in the early 1970s to complete his medical training. Both my brothers in law came here as small children. They went to a comprehensive school, as did my neice. They're all doing okay but I wouldn't say they were really posh. They're all attracted to jobs with a public service ethos and are good at Stem subjects, which I guess are the reasons they're all in this one industry.
There is also a large amount of "I don't know about that", "No one around here does that" etc etc
It takes a strong push from the parents, I think, to go for success.
Yes, no doubt at all parental support and pushing, or the lack of it, are major factors in social mobility.
The other big factor is two parents in the family home. It takes two to push and support that hard.
Is the BBC telling porkies? "Price rises see record jump...". Er more than in the 70s? Bollocks. It's a record increase in the current measure of inflation which has only been used since 1997.
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
It will be less about energy efficiency and more about the hydrogen fuel potentially costing a lot more than natural gas. Ultimately there is a cost to decarbonise and the debate is how that cost is allocated.
At least a hydrogen boiler will keep your house warm and let you have a hot shower. I am less certain that you will have these facilities with an air source heat pump.
Plumber who did some work for me a few weeks ago was talking about combination air-source/oil boilers. Seems these are designed for older homes that use oil, and would need extensive work (underfloor heating etc) to cope with air-source alone. The oil allows a top-up of the heat from the air source. May be an option for us when we replace our temperamental boiler.
On topic, Starmer is still maybe a bit long or else the odds on next election are out of kilter. ~40% NOM for next election, but ~20% Starmer next PM - got to be >50% chance of Starmer PM in a NOM situation?
That, of course, assumes that Starmer survives to the next election (very likely, surely). Even in the obvious NOM/not Starmer scenario of Con technically short of a majority, but hanging on as technical minority (SF not sitting for example) Starmer might get another bite - he may not step down if he does that well, I guess, so could still be next PM after Johnson, although the risk of another Con PM in between increases.
There are some real serious inflationary pressures not about to go away:
1. Energy prices are shooting up. As we don't have enough generating capacity it isn't in our control to bring them back down 2. Commodity prices are shooting up. Stuff that we either need for manufacturing or consume costs more globally and the up pressures are not easing off any time soon 3. Climate impact on harvests skyrocketing prices. I flagged the threat to pasta supply caused by the failed Canadian harvest - oats will be the same. Where we have had a good harvest largely in the UK we're losing the upside by not being able to pick it 4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely 5. Wage inflation. We cannot sustain repeated 20% pay rises for crisis staff like drivers. You cannot pay your way out of job crisis unless there is a pool of labour ready to enter the sector. Same with care homes. Same with food production.
At the very least, the "there is nothing to see here, please disperse" commentators are showing that dogma trumps evidence...
No one is saying there’s nothing to see there are two views. One is it is temporary and one is it will be longer term. Currently central banks view is this will be temporary as the economy restarts after covid. We shall see.
When you are a central bank and you know there is no lever you can pull to retard inflation (such as raising interest rates) that don't immolate your economy, is it any surprise that they are absolutely unanimous that inflationary pressures are temporary?
Whilst we have some unique brexit issues such as massive wage spikes in a few sectors, this is largely a global issue. It would need global coordination, but all the major central banks have the same massive debt & low interest rates problem...
Alternatively, the reality is that a bit of inflation, but not out of control inflation (a point at which we are nowhere near - for much of the last century Central Banks would have killed for 3.2%) is seen as exactly what is needed to solve the debt problems...
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
How many windows did you have to replace?
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
My house is just under twenty years old. It was built under the regulations at the time which, whilst not quite as stringent energy-wise as the current ones, still favoured energy saving.
So what windows did they put in this house? Nice, draught-free ones, designed to keep heat in?
Did they ****. They put in sash windows which are as draughty as anything, and leak heat like p*ss from a drunkard.
That's good though, because you probably don't have chimneys but you need ventilation.
I've worked closely with medical doctors throughout my career, and found most intelligent and hard-working. It's more stressful than science and takes a particular mindset to succeed. 0ne is the ability to accept you can and will make mistakes. Perhaps one reason they can be defensive
Along with the law, it has a particular kudos that attracts ambitious immigrant families. However, you need the right attributes or you rapidly become a fish out of water.
Agree with the point about artists and journalists. Let's be honest, the latter is a fallback position for poshos without talent or a liking for hard work.
I have a lot of respect for GPs, a job I could never do. A specialism - I can understand, but pandering to patients who think they understand it all by five minutes googling must be wearing.
I suspect any selection panel of working medics would have useful experience of the pressures new doctors will face. They may get it wrong, but they have to sleep at might too.
On topic, Starmer is still maybe a bit long or else the odds on next election are out of kilter. ~40% NOM for next election, but ~20% Starmer next PM - got to be >50% chance of Starmer PM in a NOM situation?
That, of course, assumes that Starmer survives to the next election (very likely, surely). Even in the obvious NOM/not Starmer scenario of Con technically short of a majority, but hanging on as technical minority (SF not sitting for example) Starmer might get another bite - he may not step down if he does that well, I guess, so could still be next PM after Johnson, although the risk of another Con PM in between increases.
Yes I think thats true, one set of odds must be wrong.
If there’s a 40% chance of NOM & 13% chance of Lab Maj, Sir Keir should have a better than 21% of being next PM (assuming Boris fights the next GE), as he is more likely to be head of a coalition than winning an outright majority. The intangible is what % are the current leaders to still be leaders at the next GE
Personally I don’t think it should be 50/50 Con Maj/NOM, Con Maj should be big fav
Is the BBC telling porkies? "Price rises see record jump...". Er more than in the 70s? Bollocks. It's a record increase in the current measure of inflation which has only been used since 1997.
The BBC seems to be quoting the ONS so if anyone is lying, it's the government, and I don't think that has ever happened before.
On topic, Starmer is still maybe a bit long or else the odds on next election are out of kilter. ~40% NOM for next election, but ~20% Starmer next PM - got to be >50% chance of Starmer PM in a NOM situation?
That, of course, assumes that Starmer survives to the next election (very likely, surely). Even in the obvious NOM/not Starmer scenario of Con technically short of a majority, but hanging on as technical minority (SF not sitting for example) Starmer might get another bite - he may not step down if he does that well, I guess, so could still be next PM after Johnson, although the risk of another Con PM in between increases.
I think the gap is because, if the Conservatives look like losing under BoJo, they will attempt to dump BoJo. And that person will be "Next PM".
Different food labelling rules may apply in different parts of the UK for the first time because the SNP Government has refused to commit to a UK-wide approach with new post-Brexit powers.
Unless the Westminster government imposes different labels just to be different I am pretty confident everyone will use the same label for every market.
It's the Scottish government which is refusing to commit to a UK wide approach.
On this particular issues - they'll be told where to get off in their consultation. But there is no "UK wide approach". GB labels different to NI. There is no "UK" any more from a standards or customs perspective.
The arguments being deployed to justify the “far better than expected” performance against June/July Covid models, in a way that argues for a measure of new restrictions being imposed is a thing to behold.
Given the reality versus the models there’s no serious way the scientists can argue that the decision to open everything up was a mistake. But they are claiming that the outlier figures against the models are that they failed to anticipate the extent that behavioural changes wouldn’t match predictions (oh and “warm weather” - they obviously have barely stepped outside this “summer”!)
However our “reward” for all this is that they weren’t “wrong”, the surge in case numbers and hospitalisations has just been pushed into October and November when they will overwhelm the NHS.
The logical conclusion to their arguments is that the Government hasn’t actually done enough to drive people back to work etc in the summer to reduce impact in Autumn and winter! Or perhaps the models will all just be wrong again, and come the next iteration in mid October the headlines will be “last chance to save Christmas!”
Yep - saw this too on scanning the SAGE document yesterday. Basically its our fault for not behaving as they thought. This doesn't really fit the observational reality - traffic is back,most people are out and about. I know some are still doing more home working, but it seems likely that that will continue now. I do wonder if SAGE is so used to talking to idiots (i.e. ministers) and needing to scare them, that they forget intelligent people will see through the bullshit spin...
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438041507466985472/photo/1
My father in law, who works in building, told us not to build an extension this autumn as materials are through the the roof. Yesterday he said it looks like prices are starting to come down
Yes, there were some good tentative signs that raw material shortages are beginning to ease recently. That will take another few months to feed into the finished product markets but like with everything else, this too shall pass. Everyone seems to be losing their heads believing that this is now a permanent state of affairs, it isn't.
Seeing that at my work as well.
The difficult period for material availability was 3-6 months ago.
Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.
Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
So what if the price of trucking rises to pay a decent salary?
What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
The myopic Brexit salary bonus merchants like yourself do not see the other side of the coin. I grant you Brexit along with Covid has created shortages of people in certain employment sectors and current supply and demand issues are driving salaries up. I hand it to you, at the moment that is a Brexit bonanza.
However the other side of the picture is that the reason we had well educated Eastern Europeans working in the industry I work in, Waste Management, was because they could do the jobs that domestic employees didn't have the motivation, skills or aptitude to do, i.e. sorting recyclables on a picking line. Johnny Foreigner didn't steal our jobs, they were welcome to them. Likewise fruit picking and vegetable harvesting, hard work that we can't be arsed to do. So what happens if we can't fill these vacancies? The job doesn't get done and fruit and veg rot in the fields, which then reduces supply and increases inflation. Also, wage hikes in retail and hospitality sectors are causing panic as employers say we can't afford them and shut up shop. Something I daresay a market economist like you agrees with. Meanwhile how long do you think the £100k trucker will last? When supply increases in a couple of years the salaries equalise again. I saw this a few years ago with tanker drivers.
By all means pay people their worth, but you have always advocated the market sets its labour costs, and over time the £100k trucker will become the stuff of legend.
If that jump in inflation is sustained I would not bet a huge amount on a Tory majority at the next election. At this stage, of course, it’s a big “if”, but interest rates rising would be a massive blow to a lot of people.
There's lots of reasons to think that it will be a temporary effect, related to the pandemic. We had a massive drop in demand, prices went down, and supply capacity went down. Now we have a lot of pent-up demand being released, and supply isn't there - but in most cases you would expect supply to recover, the pent-up demand will be expended, and so the mismatch between demand and supply should ease considerably.
As well as rebound demand there has been hundreds of billions of government spending injected into the economy, and similar vast sums in other major economies.
If inflation doesn't occur as a result, then economists will have to go back to the drawing board.
Or commentators like Phil will re-write the narrative (as he already has done) and inflation becomes "good".
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
Depends on how efficient the new boilers are vs the old boilers. If a switch to a new boiler cuts your energy consumption in half its probably a good thing. If not...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
How many windows did you have to replace?
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
How many? We got a quote for all of them (which is a lot). All need to be wooden frame sash windows (as its listed). Currently most are painted / nailed shut with mostly intact secondary glazing. A couple of panes are cracked and could do with an early upgrade but the rest are ok.
Its been relegated down the list of jobs to prioritise, lets put it like that. I may do the downstairs ones in the front of the building first (the old bank / my office) as no secondary glazing at all. Storage heaters everywhere in the bank, and even wall heaters in the toilets. I assume its *cold* in the winter.
The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.
What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?
I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.
Even the one suggesting Eddie Izzard as her replacement?
I don't see anything suspicious about this at all. Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been banned from leaving the country amid an investigation into his alleged involvement in the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse.
A prosecutor is seeking charges against Mr Henry, who has been asked to explain his links with a key suspect in the killing, Joseph Felix Badio.
Records show the two men had multiple phone calls just hours after the assassination, prosecutors say...
On Monday, Mr Henry sent a letter purportedly sacking Chief Prosecutor Bed-Ford Claude and accusing him of a "serious administrative offence". He later nominated a replacement.
However, on Tuesday Mr Claude appeared to remain in his post as he asked a judge investigating the murder of Mr Moïse to charge the prime minister over his "suspected" involvement in the case.
Sources with knowledge of Haiti say it is not in the prime minister's remit to dismiss the prosecutor.
I mean, the mood music was clearly Newsom's way, but I'm shocked how well he's done. It looks like he's even carrying places like Fresno Valley, which is a Republican stronghold.
What's really interesting is how weak the Recall turnout has been - it looks like it's going to be well down on what Cox managed in 2018.
Just no momentum, and the whole exercise was pretty pointless.
Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.
Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
So what if the price of trucking rises to pay a decent salary?
What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
The myopic Brexit salary bonus merchants like yourself do not see the other side of the coin. I grant you Brexit along with Covid has created shortages of people in certain employment sectors and current supply and demand issues are driving salaries up. I hand it to you, at the moment that is a Brexit bonanza.
However the other side of the picture is that the reason we had well educated Eastern Europeans working in the industry I work in, Waste Management, was because they could do the jobs that domestic employees didn't have the motivation, skills or aptitude to do, i.e. sorting recyclables on a picking line. Johnny Foreigner didn't steal our jobs, they were welcome to them. Likewise fruit picking and vegetable harvesting, hard work that we can't be arsed to do. So what happens if we can't fill these vacancies? The job doesn't get done and fruit and veg rot in the fields, which then reduces supply and increases inflation. Also, wage hikes in retail and hospitality sectors are causing panic as employers say we can't afford them and shut up shop. Something I daresay a market economist like you agrees with. Meanwhile how long do you think the £100k trucker will last? When supply increases in a couple of years the salaries equalise again. I saw this a few years ago with tanker drivers.
By all means pay people their worth, but you have always advocated the market sets its labour costs, and over time the £100k trucker will become the stuff of legend.
Off to work!
The simple truth is that the market sets the correct price. At the moment there is a labour shortage which the big firms tried to buy their way out of. This has set off a cascade reaction of more and more pay rises and yet the key issue - a shortage of drivers - has not been resolved. Companies have seen their wage bills increase by around 40% and yet have still got the same labour shortage!
The only fix is to increase the number of drivers. When this happens all these pay rises will collapse and collapse fast - they are unsustainable. The government wants to add drivers by sending out partly trained drivers who don't know how to back the truck up to the loading dock. So we're going to see a large rise in accidents as well.
🚨🚨🚨OK I'm hearing from numerous sources now that there will be a reshuffle starting after PMQs. Sackings first and Cabinet appointed this PM. Then the rest of the appointments over the next two days.
The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.
What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?
I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.
Even the one suggesting Eddie Izzard as her replacement?
Published today in @TheLancet after peer review – our randomised controlled trial of a policy of daily lateral flow device testing vs quarantine for Covid-19 contacts in secondary schools and colleges. (1/8).....
Most notably, when we test asymptomatic contacts by PCR, 2 and 7 days after contact, only 1 of 67 contacts tests positive (1.5% and 1.6% in each group). School contacts rarely resulted in transmission. (6/8)
Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.
Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
So what if the price of trucking rises to pay a decent salary?
What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
The myopic Brexit salary bonus merchants like yourself do not see the other side of the coin. I grant you Brexit along with Covid has created shortages of people in certain employment sectors and current supply and demand issues are driving salaries up. I hand it to you, at the moment that is a Brexit bonanza.
However the other side of the picture is that the reason we had well educated Eastern Europeans working in the industry I work in, Waste Management, was because they could do the jobs that domestic employees didn't have the motivation, skills or aptitude to do, i.e. sorting recyclables on a picking line. Johnny Foreigner didn't steal our jobs, they were welcome to them. Likewise fruit picking and vegetable harvesting, hard work that we can't be arsed to do. So what happens if we can't fill these vacancies? The job doesn't get done and fruit and veg rot in the fields, which then reduces supply and increases inflation. Also, wage hikes in retail and hospitality sectors are causing panic as employers say we can't afford them and shut up shop. Something I daresay a market economist like you agrees with. Meanwhile how long do you think the £100k trucker will last? When supply increases in a couple of years the salaries equalise again. I saw this a few years ago with tanker drivers.
By all means pay people their worth, but you have always advocated the market sets its labour costs, and over time the £100k trucker will become the stuff of legend.
Off to work!
The simple truth is that the market sets the correct price. At the moment there is a labour shortage which the big firms tried to buy their way out of. This has set off a cascade reaction of more and more pay rises and yet the key issue - a shortage of drivers - has not been resolved. Companies have seen their wage bills increase by around 40% and yet have still got the same labour shortage!
The only fix is to increase the number of drivers. When this happens all these pay rises will collapse and collapse fast - they are unsustainable. The government wants to add drivers by sending out partly trained drivers who don't know how to back the truck up to the loading dock. So we're going to see a large rise in accidents as well.
Being allowed to tear up the HASAWA for some on here would be another Brexit bonus.
Comments
Richard Madeley is in the studio. Great. Love him
Larty Eldar is an absolute bellend.
I think he focused the minds of people.
The government will have a nasty shock if they try to impose another lockdown.
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
@ONS
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3% in the year to August 2021, up from 2.1% in July.
Driven by falls last August due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, the rise will likely be temporary http://ow.ly/U5Dc50Ga9LU
Tory whips accused of threatening rebels with loss of local funding https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/15/tory-whips-accused-threatening-rebels-loss-local-funding?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug.
Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997)
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438022047259582467/photo/1
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438026142901022721/photo/1
But let's get real about this for the moment. Far too many trans people suffer abuse. According to Stonewall:
"Two in five trans people have had a hate crime committed against them in the last year, and two in five trans young people have attempted suicide. One in eight trans people have been physically attacked by colleagues or customers at work."
https://www.stonewall.org.uk/truth-about-trans#know-trans
This is the other side of the story some people ignore. The entire mood music - on this august forum, even - encourages this. Trans people are odd. Strange. They're a danger to women.
And let's take prison. There's lots of talk about the dangers trans women may pose to women in jail. Yet those people never talk about the larger problem: the dangers trans people face in jail: for instance 11 trans people abused in male jails in 2019, with only one trans person believed to have abused someone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52748117
So you have one person being an abuser, and that's where the talk is - witness the hideous ?Karen White?. But the 11 people being abused are ignored.
I don't like the hate-spreading language used by either side on this debate: people are angry on both sides, for understandable reasons. I don't care for TERFs. I don't care for the people arguing with them: both sides appear to be thriving on argument and hate.
But in the middle are lots of trans people who need understanding and compassion. And they're not getting it.
Now I have no problem with forecasts being reported but its essential that the source is reported if it's not 100% official.
The idea that bright people are more likely to have bright children (you know, evolution) seems to have passed some thinkers by…
If inflation doesn't occur as a result, then economists will have to go back to the drawing board.
Perhaps better than a civil war, but even so...
Running around 60% utilisation on any given day. Supposed to wear masks in common parts but no one does…
* technical term meaning you can’t WFH every Monday and Friday
I understand entirely why people voted Tory in Pools and tipped it as soon as the byelection was called. But the party cannot keep selecting wasters and fools as backbench placeholders. As I keep saying punters in the red wall are voting for Brexit and for Tories expecting delivery of change. They quickly tire of MPs who string them along.
Jill Mortimer was literally parachuted into a seat she has no link to and has gone straight back to representing her council ward in preference to her parliamentary constituents.
That said, it’s currently 65/35, with an estimated 68% of the votes counted, so getting close to a mathematical impossibility - unless a couple of million Republicans put postal ballots in the mail last night.
Now, it might be that bright children from poorer backgrounds do not realise a career in medicine or law is within their grasp, whereas those from medical families think it is the natural order of things. (Pop quiz – what does a solicitor do all day?)
But there are additional obstacles. One is the personal statement. How easy is it to get relevant experience to pad your application if you just need to ask a favour of mum, dad, or aunt? Another is medical school interviews. Probably the biggest is there are just not enough medical school places, which is why the NHS needs to raid foreign, often poorer countries for their doctors.
Interest rates do need to start ticking up though, even a quarter percent every six months is better than nothing. Asset prices are going to keep booming while rates are on the floor.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1438035709160476683
Energy prices going up will only sharpen attacks on the idea of the PM (or his wife) to make everyone have new, more expensive boilers.
I suspect it's an example of too much knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
1. Energy prices are shooting up. As we don't have enough generating capacity it isn't in our control to bring them back down
2. Commodity prices are shooting up. Stuff that we either need for manufacturing or consume costs more globally and the up pressures are not easing off any time soon
3. Climate impact on harvests skyrocketing prices. I flagged the threat to pasta supply caused by the failed Canadian harvest - oats will be the same. Where we have had a good harvest largely in the UK we're losing the upside by not being able to pick it
4. Brexit costs. Despite the "just kick checks into the long grass" that is only physical checks. Importing anything into the UK is a painful, long and expensive process. Export more so where so many small exporters are now priced out of the EU market completely
5. Wage inflation. We cannot sustain repeated 20% pay rises for crisis staff like drivers. You cannot pay your way out of job crisis unless there is a pool of labour ready to enter the sector. Same with care homes. Same with food production.
At the very least, the "there is nothing to see here, please disperse" commentators are showing that dogma trumps evidence...
As an example in our new old house, an early investment was a new boiler. The old one drinking oil at a speldid speed if it were a supertanker engine not a boiler. We've then looked for energy efficiency investments we could make - new windows was high on the list. But as the bill for new windows is £60k, we would have to save spectacular amounts of oil to make it worth the money...
Incidentally we don't read or score the personal statement either. Our statistical analysis is that it doesn't add anything to the admission decision process.
There certainly is quite a strong tradition of medicine in some families, particularly so amongst my immigrant colleagues and their children. Ditto too for private education, as nearly all of my immigrant colleagues were privately educated in their birth countries, so see that as the norm for their children here.
Yes, doctors can seem posh, but a very large part of that is as a culture of self improvement. When you look at UK born doctors they are often from modest backgrounds.
If you really want to see where posh people dominate, look at the media, journalism and the arts.
Different food labelling rules may apply in different parts of the UK for the first time because the SNP Government has refused to commit to a UK-wide approach with new post-Brexit powers.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1438038756074921985?s=20
Genuinely curious. "A Freeport" being one of the selling points post brexit. What is bigger and better than the status quo ante?
And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out.
Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438025729120288769?s=20
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438026142901022721?s=20
Perhaps it is dawning on those in power that Brexit is a crap idea.
Personally I think recalls are a waste of time unless the governor has done something criminal or there is a truly outstanding candidate to replace them eg as Schwarzanneger was in 2003, neither condition of which applied here.
Otherwise just let the governor complete their term as the voters have clearly decided to do with Newsom
At our insistence we have imposed full paperwork and standards checks on identical products. On standards that are aligned and will remain sufficiently aligned. And unlike the French failed to build the customs points, hire the officers or build the computer system to actually do so. Creating huge costs to import but huger costs to export for literally no reason other than dogmatic theory that the evil EU may at some future point impose punative standards rises on the EU27 to punish the
UKGBNot enough chips to go into new cars means not enough new cars which means used car prices are going through the roof (dotted line compares price growth this yr with previous years) https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1438043083887763458/photo/1
Whilst we have some unique brexit issues such as massive wage spikes in a few sectors, this is largely a global issue. It would need global coordination, but all the major central banks have the same massive debt & low interest rates problem...
Misuse of 'literally' drives me metaphorically* insane.
*Or is it literally, in my case? Open to opinions
A phased approach, replacing the windows which are leaking the most heat might well catch some low hanging fruit....
It takes a strong push from the parents, I think, to go for success.
So what windows did they put in this house? Nice, draught-free ones, designed to keep heat in?
Did they ****. They put in sash windows which are as draughty as anything, and leak heat like p*ss from a drunkard.
At least a hydrogen boiler will keep your house warm and let you have a hot shower. I am less certain that you will have these facilities with an air source heat pump.
They are now whining that they have lost long term customers. After all, what is deliberately doubling the price between friends?
Given the reality versus the models there’s no serious way the scientists can argue that the decision to open everything up was a mistake. But they are claiming that the outlier figures against the models are that they failed to anticipate the extent that behavioural changes wouldn’t match predictions (oh and “warm weather” - they obviously have barely stepped outside this “summer”!)
However our “reward” for all this is that they weren’t “wrong”, the surge in case numbers and hospitalisations has just been pushed into October and November when they will overwhelm the NHS.
The logical conclusion to their arguments is that the Government hasn’t actually done enough to drive people back to work etc in the summer to reduce impact in Autumn and winter! Or perhaps the models will all just be wrong again, and come the next iteration in mid October the headlines will be “last chance to save Christmas!”
Or they can be built to be a pieces of shit.
The other big factor is two parents in the family home. It takes two to push and support that hard.
"The UK needs to learn how to lie with Covid hospitalisations, a Sage adviser has warned. "
That, of course, assumes that Starmer survives to the next election (very likely, surely). Even in the obvious NOM/not Starmer scenario of Con technically short of a majority, but hanging on as technical minority (SF not sitting for example) Starmer might get another bite - he may not step down if he does that well, I guess, so could still be next PM after Johnson, although the risk of another Con PM in between increases.
Breaking
Inflation at 3.2% in August, largest rise on record
📉Our lowest Con vote share since 12-14 March
🔵Con 39 (-1)
🔴Lab 35 (-1)
🟠LDM 9 (=)
🟢Green 6 (+2)
🟡SNP 4 (=)
⚪️Other 9 (+1)
10-12 Sept, 2,097 UK adults
(Changes from 3-5 Sept) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1438048294689771521/photo/1
Our lowest Con vote share since 12-14 March
Con 39 (-1)
Lab 35 (-1)
LDM 9 (=)
Green 6 (+2)
SNP 4 (=)
Other 9 (+1)
10-12 Sept, 2,097 UK adults. (Changes from 3-5 Sept)
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1438048294689771521?s=20
I've worked closely with medical doctors throughout my career, and found most intelligent and hard-working. It's more stressful than science and takes a particular mindset to succeed. 0ne is the ability to accept you can and will make mistakes. Perhaps one reason they can be defensive
Along with the law, it has a particular kudos that attracts ambitious immigrant families. However, you need the right attributes or you rapidly become a fish out of water.
Agree with the point about artists and journalists. Let's be honest, the latter is a fallback position for poshos without talent or a liking for hard work.
I have a lot of respect for GPs, a job I could never do. A specialism - I can understand, but pandering to patients who think they understand it all by five minutes googling must be wearing.
I suspect any selection panel of working medics would have useful experience of the pressures new doctors will face. They may get it wrong, but they have to sleep at might too.
So a hung parliament but the Tories could stay in office if they persuaded the 8 DUP MPs to back them again
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
If there’s a 40% chance of NOM & 13% chance of Lab Maj, Sir Keir should have a better than 21% of being next PM (assuming Boris fights the next GE), as he is more likely to be head of a coalition than winning an outright majority. The intangible is what % are the current leaders to still be leaders at the next GE
Personally I don’t think it should be 50/50 Con Maj/NOM, Con Maj should be big fav
bullshitspin...Edit - typo
Trainwreck Saj channeling the Shopping cart
- MPs dont need masks cos 'theyre not strangers'!
- Plan B kicks in AFTER it's 'out of control'!
If imminent #CarrieReshuffle puts him back in charge of the economy we'll have the world's stupidest 100B tunnel...
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1438047711987650566?s=20
The difficult period for material availability was 3-6 months ago.
However the other side of the picture is that the reason we had well educated Eastern Europeans working in the industry I work in, Waste Management, was because they could do the jobs that domestic employees didn't have the motivation, skills or aptitude to do, i.e. sorting recyclables on a picking line. Johnny Foreigner didn't steal our jobs, they were welcome to them. Likewise fruit picking and vegetable harvesting, hard work that we can't be arsed to do. So what happens if we can't fill these vacancies? The job doesn't get done and fruit and veg rot in the fields, which then reduces supply and increases inflation. Also, wage hikes in retail and hospitality sectors are causing panic as employers say we can't afford them and shut up shop. Something I daresay a market economist like you agrees with. Meanwhile how long do you think the £100k trucker will last? When supply increases in a couple of years the salaries equalise again. I saw this a few years ago with tanker drivers.
By all means pay people their worth, but you have always advocated the market sets its labour costs, and over time the £100k trucker will become the stuff of legend.
Off to work!
I have no idea what will happen in GE 24 and neither does anyone else
Its been relegated down the list of jobs to prioritise, lets put it like that. I may do the downstairs ones in the front of the building first (the old bank / my office) as no secondary glazing at all. Storage heaters everywhere in the bank, and even wall heaters in the toilets. I assume its *cold* in the winter.
I know Haiti exists*. Therefore I have knowledge of Haiti.
* although, on second thoughts, I have never been there so - more correctly - I believe Haiti exists
The only fix is to increase the number of drivers. When this happens all these pay rises will collapse and collapse fast - they are unsustainable. The government wants to add drivers by sending out partly trained drivers who don't know how to back the truck up to the loading dock. So we're going to see a large rise in accidents as well.
Caveat: I might be wrong. But watch this space.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1438052145811623942
Most notably, when we test asymptomatic contacts by PCR, 2 and 7 days after contact, only 1 of 67 contacts tests positive (1.5% and 1.6% in each group). School contacts rarely resulted in transmission. (6/8)
https://twitter.com/BugsBernadette/status/1438042091314159617?s=20