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Starmer is back as favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 14 in General
imageStarmer is back as favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First?
  • BREAKING NEWS: California's Governor has successfully avoided recall due with the vote count showing evidence of fraud says his Republican opponent: https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1437614398231781377

    Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Not sure if this is better or worse than Labour most seats.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770

    BREAKING NEWS: California's Governor has successfully avoided recall due with the vote count showing evidence of fraud says his Republican opponent: https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1437614398231781377

    Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!

    The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
  • alex_ said:

    BREAKING NEWS: California's Governor has successfully avoided recall due with the vote count showing evidence of fraud says his Republican opponent: https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1437614398231781377

    Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!

    The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
    OK timezone difference I guess on that Tweet saying the election is tomorrow.

    But yes the counting hasn't started yet and no early voting data has been released, so no analysis of the results could have happened yet!

    Though the serious betting point is that it seems the Republican is getting his excuses in early as to why the recall failed. So maybe pile in on betting No for the recall? Though I don't know if you can get good odds on No now anyway?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,965
    alex_ said:

    BREAKING NEWS: California's Governor has successfully avoided recall due with the vote count showing evidence of fraud says his Republican opponent: https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1437614398231781377

    Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!

    The election is today. But presumably they haven't started counting yet.
    Democracy only works if the losing side accept defeat with good grace and work towards winning next time. Power is transferred in a peaceful manner. The alternative is political violence, even civil war.

    Thanks to the moral corruption of the GOP such transfers are no longer the case in America.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,965
    Here we go...


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    maaarsh said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    That's their middle scenario. The bad scenario is just hilarious. Their upside scenario is 2000 hospitalisations by the end of this month.

    It's really hard to explain this in a way which says anything good for the integrity of the modellers involved.
    Do you have a link for this model?
    Where else?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/bring-in-measures-soon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns
    What's completely stupid is that the current R value is under 1, somewhere around 0.8 by my calculation. I have no idea where they get R1.1 from and then have that sustained over a very long period of time given how close we are to the herd immunity threshold (estimated 75-85% of people with immunity now against a 85% to hit herd immunity).

    Eventually the virus just runs out of viable hosts, none of those scenarios have taken that into account and seem to just model an unlimited number of viable hosts.
    One care here: 75-85% of people with (some degree of) immunity does not equal 75-85% immunity.

    My rounded envelope numbers recently have been:

    1/3 of the population have had COVID and carry full immunity.
    1/2 of the population have not had COVID but have been vaccinated, and each have 2/3 immunity, so contribute another 1/3 to herd immunity.

    So, 2/3 population immunity and we need to reach a bit over 5/6.
    But they are talking about 7k in hospital per day. Efficacy against hospitalisation for vaccinated people is over 90% and close to 100% for acquired immunity. Your numbers are wrong for the purposes of this exercise. No one cares if someone gets infected and doesn't get symptoms and passes it on to someone who also doesn't get symptoms.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 14

    Here we go...


    I think i might have to buy a new iphone 13 after all, as I got so annoyed seeing that headline on my existing phone....
  • How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    Sir Keir may well be fav, but that is quite misleading - the average person might assume that means he is likely to be next PM, whereas the market is saying there is 79% chance of it being someone else.

    There is probably a way of working out what that means in terms of next GE majority betting though, although I haven't really thought it through... If Sir Keir is only 21% likely to be next PM, that doesn't say much for Labours chance of denying the Tories a majority does it? Unless we think Boris is likely to hand it over to someone else pre GE24, which he seems to be ruling out.

    Labour majority is a 13% chance, so that means only 8% chance of Sir Keir being PM of a coalition? That cant be right can it? Coalition has to be more likely, but I guess there is athe poss of leadership changes on both sides to factor in which makes it pretty tricky to concisely work out
  • Here we go...


    I think i might have to buy a new iphone 13 after all, as I got so annoyed seeing that headline on my existing phone....
    You are Gordon Brown and I claim my five pounds. What do you mean, you've spent it?
  • How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.

    The Tories haven't lost in so long, do they even know what looming defeat looks like anymore? They last lost in 2005, 16 years ago
  • So the Labour strategy is going to be to try and outflank the Tories from the other side, interesting
  • BBC News - Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    edited September 14
    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442

    Here we go...


    I think i might have to buy a new iphone 13 after all, as I got so annoyed seeing that headline on my existing phone....
    My god, it really is the same cyclical shit isn’t it.

    If the NHS can’t cope now - even after the proposed injection of cash - it never will.

    Plus, we’ve heard this all before..
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    One thing i never get with these "models" is how they always project forward for a few months and always show variations on a rise to a peak and then a fall to low levels. And then... pandemic over. It doesn't matter when the model is produced it always shows the same thing. Because they always model the pandemic remaining a pandemic with growth rate R>1 for the immediate future

    So when the period moves beyond the time frame of their previous models and it's time to produce some more suddenly they in effect forget everything they believe about the future course of the pandemic and we're back to R>1, rises to a peak over the next few weeks and a fall back to low levels. Never mind that a backwards look show the figures comparable or even better than the best case scenarios on their previous models, apparently even their best case models can't be trusted to be sustained.

    No doubt that if performance exceeds their best case modelling for the next month or two, then the next set of models will be showing a dramatic imperative to lock everything down as the only way to save Christmas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844

    BBC News - Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923

    With victory comes arguing over dividing the spoils.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    edited September 14

    How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.

    On 1. He calls an election expecting to win. Then puts the old band together. Banging on about Brexit and vaccines. The voters don't buy it. They have moved on. And they want to know why there is an election. And why they are taxed so highly. His refusal to answer questions wears thin.
    With T May outcomes.
    It isn't likely, but it isn't negligible either.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    kle4 said:

    BBC News - Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923

    With victory comes arguing over dividing the spoils.
    There have been suggestions that their Supreme Leader and one of his deputies are dead...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 14
    FFS literally every front page is going with this horseshit....and that Boris should be bringing back restrictions now.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
    My organisation- which thinks it is being terribly positive and leading the way by going back to the office one day a week, in certain circumstances - also requires mask use ' when moving around the office'. Though not at desks or in meeting rooms. It's as if it has taken all the purely performative bits of the last year's restrictions as guidelines.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 203
    It is, isn't it? It took a few days, but that one sails.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BBC News - Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923

    With victory comes arguing over dividing the spoils.
    There have been suggestions that their Supreme Leader and one of his deputies are dead...
    They do have form for not telling people the leader is dead.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770

    FFS literally every front page is going with this horseshit....and that Boris should be bringing back restrictions now.

    Indy: "Classroom bubbles could return to keep schools open". FFS it's classroom bubbles that caused most of the disruption. The way to keep schools opens is to ... keep schools open and not send kids home at the slightest hint of an infection.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    That Guardian headline.....
    This is what they are referring too. Green is plausible (seen in Scotland recently) blue just is highly unlikely, it shouldn’t be the headline figure.

    If nothing else there would be self regulating behaviour change to suppress that peak.




    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1437893917098262530?s=20
  • dixiedean said:

    How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.

    On 1. He calls an election expecting to win. Then puts the old band together. Banging on about Brexit and vaccines. The voters don't buy it. They have moved on. And they want to know why there is an election. And why they are taxed so highly. His refusal to answer questions wears thin.
    The T May strategy.
    It isn't likely, but it isn't negligible either.
    Quite plausible actually - everyone gets fed up with Boris eventually. However, Boris himself has an uncanny sense to realize when this is starting to happen, so he'll probably pack up his bags and move on just as he passes his peak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    I would make Starmer favourite for PM given a hung parliament is predicted by most current polls.

    However I would also make the Tories favourite for most seats.

    In which case Starmer would become the first PM whose party did not win most seats at the last general election since Macdonald from 1931-1935
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,617
    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    maaarsh said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    That's their middle scenario. The bad scenario is just hilarious. Their upside scenario is 2000 hospitalisations by the end of this month.

    It's really hard to explain this in a way which says anything good for the integrity of the modellers involved.
    Do you have a link for this model?
    Where else?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/bring-in-measures-soon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns
    What's completely stupid is that the current R value is under 1, somewhere around 0.8 by my calculation. I have no idea where they get R1.1 from and then have that sustained over a very long period of time given how close we are to the herd immunity threshold (estimated 75-85% of people with immunity now against a 85% to hit herd immunity).

    Eventually the virus just runs out of viable hosts, none of those scenarios have taken that into account and seem to just model an unlimited number of viable hosts.
    One care here: 75-85% of people with (some degree of) immunity does not equal 75-85% immunity.

    My rounded envelope numbers recently have been:

    1/3 of the population have had COVID and carry full immunity.
    1/2 of the population have not had COVID but have been vaccinated, and each have 2/3 immunity, so contribute another 1/3 to herd immunity.

    So, 2/3 population immunity and we need to reach a bit over 5/6.
    But they are talking about 7k in hospital per day. Efficacy against hospitalisation for vaccinated people is over 90% and close to 100% for acquired immunity. Your numbers are wrong for the purposes of this exercise. No one cares if someone gets infected and doesn't get symptoms and passes it on to someone who also doesn't get symptoms.
    As I said before, I don't remotely give credence to the 7k hospitalisation figure either. And, as you say the efficacy against hospitalisation and death is the Biggie in terms of public health outcomes - I don't disagree.

    But you were claiming we were near herd immunity and that was what I was questioning. To go back to definitions, herd immunity is technically a measure of whether the virus can spread, and thus it relates to cases, not hospitalisations.

    So when you claim R can't be 1.1 because we are too close to herd immunity for that to be possible, you are explicitly talking about cases, not the effects of those cases nor whether anyone cares.

    I'm a little bearish on cases, certainly not 200+k/day bearish, I think they have a way to run because I don't think we're as close to herd immunity as you do. But ultimately, even with a now much improved ratio between cases, hospitalisations and deaths, there is still a relationship, and that means I think there will be more hospitalisations and deaths than you do.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
    My organisation- which thinks it is being terribly positive and leading the way by going back to the office one day a week, in certain circumstances - also requires mask use ' when moving around the office'. Though not at desks or in meeting rooms. It's as if it has taken all the purely performative bits of the last year's restrictions as guidelines.
    Yep same here. Mass focus on cleaning surfaces etc despite the minimal impact on Covid transmission. "Enhanced" cleaning at significant cost. Just because it still exists as Govt guidance due to the bureaucratic difficulty in withdrawing it. No masks at desks in (relatively) crowded offices but supposed to wear masks when moving around (usually empty) corridors. Drives me nuts.
  • How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.

    The Tories haven't lost in so long, do they even know what looming defeat looks like anymore? They last lost in 2005, 16 years ago
    There are two ways that a party can go wrong when it hits choppy waters. One is to ignore the problems, because it's bound to work out fine because we always win in the end. The other is to panic. And we've seen a bit of both over the last week.

    What you actually need in this situation is what old Tories called "bottom". Enough inertia and momentum to keep going, but also enough sang-froid to scuttle the flagship if it was threatening the rest of the fleet. Psychotic loyalty to the king, except for the regular bouts of regicide. Don't knock it- it's what made Britain and the Conservative Party great.

    Of course, the old Tories are largely extinct. It remains to be seen whether the new Tories possess a similar degree of bottom. Or if they're just a cult worshipping an arse.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770

    That Guardian headline.....
    This is what they are referring too. Green is plausible (seen in Scotland recently) blue just is highly unlikely, it shouldn’t be the headline figure.

    If nothing else there would be self regulating behaviour change to suppress that peak.




    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1437893917098262530?s=20

    And what the hell is red???
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    dixiedean said:

    How does Starmer get to be next PM? Let me count the ways...

    1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?

    2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.

    2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.

    2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.

    Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.

    On 1. He calls an election expecting to win. Then puts the old band together. Banging on about Brexit and vaccines. The voters don't buy it. They have moved on. And they want to know why there is an election. And why they are taxed so highly. His refusal to answer questions wears thin.
    The T May strategy.
    It isn't likely, but it isn't negligible either.
    Quite plausible actually - everyone gets fed up with Boris eventually. However, Boris himself has an uncanny sense to realize when this is starting to happen, so he'll probably pack up his bags and move on just as he passes his peak.
    Yes. The danger for him is that it happens during the campaign when all eyes are on him though. Remember Strong and Stable? It seemed a good slogan at first. Just not dozens of times a day. Was laughed at pretty soon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
    My organisation- which thinks it is being terribly positive and leading the way by going back to the office one day a week, in certain circumstances - also requires mask use ' when moving around the office'. Though not at desks or in meeting rooms. It's as if it has taken all the purely performative bits of the last year's restrictions as guidelines.
    Yep, same. Just weird really.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    BREAKING NEWS: California's Governor has successfully avoided recall due with the vote count showing evidence of fraud says his Republican opponent: https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1437614398231781377

    Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!

    The election ends today, and has been running for a month.

    It's all mail in, and every registered voter received ballots in the mail.

    Technically, polls close at 8pm PST (for those returnng them by hand), and we'll start counting then.

    We'll probably have a pretty good feel for the results by 915-930pm.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    HYUFD said:

    I would make Starmer favourite for PM given a hung parliament is predicted by most current polls.

    However I would also make the Tories favourite for most seats.

    In which case Starmer would become the first PM whose party did not win most seats at the last general election since Macdonald from 1931-1935

    "I would make Starmer favourite for PM given a hung parliament is predicted by most current polls."

    That is like watching a 1500m race between a runner who usually starts powerfully takes a big lead and makes it a real test of stamina, and one with a better PB who jogs the first 1200m but possesses a real sprint finish, and when they are neck and neck, and both jogging slowly, with 300m left, saying it looks like its going to be a dead heat
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
    I am not troubled by masks, I wear them all day every day. A match is not an average outdoor setting. There are many young unvaxxed, and of course much singing and shouting.

    In time the prevalence will drop, but I shall continue to wear for the present.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 203
    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    If you think it's zero, I'll take a bet with you. Say £100 at 100/1? Great value odds for a certain loser.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,617
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    The first piece of advice my PhD supervisor gave me back in the day when working with modeling / ML....as soon as you have run something, do a raincheck, ask yourself if the output is even possible or realistic...

    7000 hospitalisations in a month....we would have to be having 100,000s of daily infections in a couple of weeks time for that.

    Oh Lord, the Warwick group haven't been booting up their ZX Spectrums again, have they?

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    3h
    How much longer will the media have an appetite for "We're all gonna die this Autumn!" pieces? Presumably pretty soon it'll just get embarrassing to have ever run one?
    For as long as it generates sales/clickbait, presumably? Apart from anything else, a significant fraction of the population is still shit scared and ready to lap up this kind of coverage.
    That proportion is definitely going down. My mum used to be a super masker, literally stepped out of the house and put her mask on then didn't take it off until she got back in, would even wear it in the car. Last week she stopped doing that, not sure what changed for her. Maybe she got bored or saw everyone else not wearing them. 🤷‍♂️
    There are still a lot of maskers around though. No shortage in the shops, and when I took the train down to London on Saturday morning it was full of them. Although, granted, the train was jam packed full of people full stop, because Great Northern couldn't run a piss up in the proverbial.

    We are still forced to use the rotten things in corridors and such like at work, with no end in sight. A visiting contractor recently remarked that we were the only business left that they visit where this is still the case.
    Maybe 1% of the crowd at LCFC vs MCFC on Saturday were masked. I was in an FFP3, easy to spot when they swing the cameras on the crowd, as my seat is at a good angle for the cameramen.
    Well, frankly, if it's still too dangerous to get away without a gag in an outdoor setting, against a backdrop of 80% of over-16s double vaxxed, 90% single vaxxed, and something like 95% antibody prevalence, then when will this ever be over?
    My organisation- which thinks it is being terribly positive and leading the way by going back to the office one day a week, in certain circumstances - also requires mask use ' when moving around the office'. Though not at desks or in meeting rooms. It's as if it has taken all the purely performative bits of the last year's restrictions as guidelines.
    Yep, same. Just weird really.
    Very similar for me.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 203
    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Also, remember, that "bi election" results can go both ways..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    I knew cases were down, but i hadn't realised quite how much hospitalisations have fallen off a cliff in the last few days (usual issue of 'headline' UK figures being days behind...)


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    My goodness, I have a chance of becoming PM, that would be fun
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,210

    That Guardian headline.....
    This is what they are referring too. Green is plausible (seen in Scotland recently) blue just is highly unlikely, it shouldn’t be the headline figure.

    If nothing else there would be self regulating behaviour change to suppress that peak.




    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1437893917098262530?s=20

    and yet not one of there modals predicted a 25% week on week fall in cases, I'm shocked I tell you shocked!

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    That Guardian headline.....
    This is what they are referring too. Green is plausible (seen in Scotland recently) blue just is highly unlikely, it shouldn’t be the headline figure.

    If nothing else there would be self regulating behaviour change to suppress that peak.




    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1437893917098262530?s=20

    Spot on.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,210
    rcs1000 said:

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
    IIRC, in 2019 on average 55,000 people a day where admitted to hospital.
  • rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    If the question was "who will be PM in 2025?", Starmer has a better than 21% chance.

    But that's not the same as "who will be the next PM?"

    What I can't imagine (because I simply don't understand the current Conservative party) is who they go for if the Johnson experiment (and it is an experiment, because life is an experiment) fails. Two weeks ago, I'd have said Rishi. Now, I'm not so sure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
    IIRC, in 2019 on average 55,000 people a day where admitted to hospital.
    The headline says "in hospital", so you can understand my confusion.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 203
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    My goodness, I have a chance of becoming PM, that would be fun
    oh fuck no
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    rcs1000 said:

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
    Pre-pandemic there were around 50,000admissions a day mid-week.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    My goodness, I have a chance of becoming PM, that would be fun
    I'm sure we could do a lot worse.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770

    rcs1000 said:

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
    Pre-pandemic there were around 50,000admissions a day mid-week.
    Does that include planned admissions? ie. that can be scaled back to offset pressure in the system?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    My goodness, I have a chance of becoming PM, that would be fun
    I do believe the gentleman will definitely not be for turning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here we go...


    What a ridiculous headline, there are a lot more than 7,000 people in hospital in the UK every night.
    Pre-pandemic there were around 50,000admissions a day mid-week.
    Does that include planned admissions? ie. that can be scaled back to offset pressure in the system?
    It was “total” so I would presume so.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,473
    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844
    Cyclefree said:

    Starmer is a pathetic coward.

    https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21

    The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.

    What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?

    What I don't get about the whole issue is that it is it does not appear to be one one where there is overwhelming backing in party of society to treat those with an opposed view as pariahs, but that is how dissent from the hardline is treated.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    Cyclefree said:

    Starmer is a pathetic coward.

    https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21

    The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.

    What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?

    I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,844
    edited September 14
    I don't see anything suspicious about this at all.

    Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been banned from leaving the country amid an investigation into his alleged involvement in the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse.

    A prosecutor is seeking charges against Mr Henry, who has been asked to explain his links with a key suspect in the killing, Joseph Felix Badio.

    Records show the two men had multiple phone calls just hours after the assassination, prosecutors say...

    On Monday, Mr Henry sent a letter purportedly sacking Chief Prosecutor Bed-Ford Claude and accusing him of a "serious administrative offence". He later nominated a replacement.

    However, on Tuesday Mr Claude appeared to remain in his post as he asked a judge investigating the murder of Mr Moïse to charge the prime minister over his "suspected" involvement in the case.

    Sources with knowledge of Haiti say it is not in the prime minister's remit to dismiss the prosecutor.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-58564831
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    edited September 14
    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
    This is where there is a difference between people who think in terms of probabilities and those who don't.

    Nobody knows what will happen in close to three years time. There could be a crisis that makes the GFC look benign. It could be that AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine causes cancer. There are a gazillion things that could happen.

    Now, if you want to argue that the real chance of a Labour government in 2024 is more like 5 or 7%, that's a perfectly sensible discussion to have. But the idea that you *know* for sure what will happen is ridiculous. No-one does.

    Edit to add: I should say labour led. There's nowhere near a 5-7% chance of a labour majority .
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    edited September 14
    justin124 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
    Actually the polls were quite close pre Hartlepool, not a million miles from how they look now. A few leads of 1,2 & 4 with the odd double digiter. It was mentioned in here as a reason to lay the Tories there

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    edited September 14
    justin124 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
    No. Simply no. Some lost voters, likely remainers put off by Corbyn and his crew may be open to return. But the fact there isn’t really much shift in polls for difficult mid term shows the Lexits are not coming back on board. The monkey hangers are archetypal Lexits.

    Shift in polls? Really? LEXITS back on board? Really?

    The mindset you have betrayed on here Justin is utterly dangerous. Starmer needs to put some underperforming heads on spikes ASAP. Starmer needs to communicate to the monkeyhangers how he is going to build on the success of Brexit to level up their community and bring the good old days back. If he doesn’t do that he doesn’t get the seat back. And he isn’t doing it. And it’s your fault Justin as you are abetting his laziness and serious mistake.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    edited September 14
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
    This is where there is a difference between people who think in terms of probabilities and those who don't.

    Nobody knows what will happen in close to three years time. There could be a crisis that makes the GFC look benign. It could be that AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine causes cancer. There are a gazillion things that could happen.

    Now, if you want to argue that the real chance of a Labour government in 2024 is more like 5 or 7%, that's a perfectly sensible discussion to have. But the idea that you *know* for sure what will happen is ridiculous. No-one does.

    Edit to add: I should say labour led. There's nowhere near a 5-7% chance of a labour majority .
    Okay. I understand. I’ll change may claim.

    2% rather than zero.

    It’s not that I haven’t provided solid reasoning as to why.

    As on topic, he has gone up taken lead in that table for precisely the reason he now has even less chance, ironically, Boris has had a good couple of weeks, so more likely to still be there next GE mopping up the Lexit vote.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    isam said:

    justin124 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
    Actually the polls were quite close pre Hartlepool, not a million miles from how they look now. A few leads of 1,2 & 4 with the odd double digiter. It was mentioned in here as a reason to lay the Tories there

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    I think they live in a fantasy world Isam. I think we are wasting our time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,745
    isam said:

    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
    All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,473
    edited September 14
    gealbhan said:

    justin124 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Were the Hartlepool byelection held today the result might be different. There has been a clear shift in the polls - we were then close to the peak vaccine bounce - and the Ben Houchen factor would be much less significant in that the election would not be combined with his own re-election bid.
    No. Simply no. Some lost voters, likely remainers put off by Corbyn and his crew may be open to return. But the fact there isn’t really much shift in polls for difficult mid term shows the Lexits are not coming back on board. The monkey hangers are archetypal Lexits.

    Shift in polls? Really? LEXITS back on board? Really?

    The mindset you have betrayed on here Justin is utterly dangerous. Starmer needs to put some underperforming heads on spikes ASAP. Starmer needs to communicate to the monkeyhangers how he is going to build on the success of Brexit to level up their community and bring the good old days back. If he doesn’t do that he doesn’t get the seat back. And he isn’t doing it. And it’s your fault Justin as you are abetting his laziness and serious mistake.
    What evidence do you have that 'Lexit' voters have not swung with the electorate as a whole? I see liitle sign of objectivity in your comments. As for mid-term polling, perhaps you need to consider what happened in the Parliaments of 1959 , 1987 - and indeed 1997. Moreover, none of them were distorted by a pandemic which shut down normal politics and opposition for an extended period of 18 months.
    As for it being my fault, I have actually been very critical of Starmer for persuading the Hartlepool MP to resign in the first place!
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    isam said:

    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
    All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
    Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.

    Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,473
    edited September 14
    Most people have forgotten - or are totally unaware of - the fact that from Autumn 1977 until the Winter of Discontent at the beginning of 1979, Thatcher's Tory opposition led Labour by generally small margins of 2% or less - indeed some months did see a Labour lead.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 723
    Something is gonna give regarding Chinese corporate and local government debt and the massively overindebted property market. Contrary to the notion that the CCP will just bail it all out, they probably cant, all they can do is try to reduce the speed of the descent

    Evergrande may be the poster child for a looming problem but there are many others just behind it.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,745
    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
    This is where there is a difference between people who think in terms of probabilities and those who don't.

    Nobody knows what will happen in close to three years time. There could be a crisis that makes the GFC look benign. It could be that AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine causes cancer. There are a gazillion things that could happen.

    Now, if you want to argue that the real chance of a Labour government in 2024 is more like 5 or 7%, that's a perfectly sensible discussion to have. But the idea that you *know* for sure what will happen is ridiculous. No-one does.

    Edit to add: I should say labour led. There's nowhere near a 5-7% chance of a labour majority .
    Okay. I understand. I’ll change may claim.

    2% rather than zero.

    It’s not that I haven’t provided solid reasoning as to why.

    As on topic, he has gone up taken lead in that table for precisely the reason he now has even less chance, ironically, Boris has had a good couple of weeks, so more likely to still be there next GE mopping up the Lexit vote.
    But you haven't taken on board any of the very plausible ifs and buts that Robert has suggested, and there are more besides.

    As it sits at the moment the probability of a Conservative Government were the election to be called for 6 weeks time would probably be a 90% plus probability. However we are not talking of six weeks time it could be 2 to 2 and a half years time. My conviction is although the short term economy is booming there are already worrying economic signs on the horizon. Inflation is concerning me greatly, but perhaps unduly.

    A Labour majority, without Scotland is as close to zero as is possible. However a loss of a Conservative majority is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility and by the time we reach the next election, circumstances may have eroded their popularity such that disillusioned working people who don't normally vote do so to rid themselves of a Government they disagree with. Additionally non Tory voters may vote smarter to eject the incumbent Tory MP. And all this could happen (unlikely granted) without the Conservatives losing a RedWall seat and an over 65 voter. Under such circumstances Starmer "could" be next PM.

    I believe the Conservatives on here who remain so supremely confident for 2024 and 2028 must have already forgotten what almost happened to Mrs May's circa 25 point poll lead in 2017 over a short six week campaign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,745
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
    All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
    Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.

    Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
    But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
    All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
    Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.

    Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
    But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
    So what if the price of trucking rises to pay a decent salary?

    What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    "Of course posh people get posh jobs
    Working-class Britain won't topple the privileged
    BY JAMES KIRKUP"

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/of-course-posh-people-get-posh-jobs/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Under the Tories they are getting a pay rise though, as wages are going up. Labour flooded the market with cheap EU workers, their traditional voters left over it whilst Sir Keir fought tooth and nail for the system that caused it to remain
    All workers are not lorry drivers and of course what is the point of pay rises if they don't keep up with inflation created by £1000k p a lorry drivers.
    Meat packers, restaurant staff, HGV drivers are all in high demand, and wages are going up as a consequence. There are jobs available and opportunities to be grabbed.

    Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
    But the other side of that coin is how do the £100k p a truck drivers get the raise? Higher prices. Your analysis is simplistic and thus spurious.
    So what if the price of trucking rises to pay a decent salary?

    What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
    Usually very little (like less than 1%) - but in a few cases, like aggregates, quite a lot.

    Of course, the aggregates industry is a very local one, and it's not going to break the bank in the general scheme of things.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    O/T

    Remember when on planes everyone used to watch the same film together as it was projected onto the front panel of each cabin? I think we ought to go back to that. It was more interesting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    On the subject of whether the Conservatives can lose in 2024, the answer is 'of course they can'. Back in 2007, there were an awful lot of governments around the world that were flying high in the polls. Virtually none of them survived to 2011, because of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis.

    I don't think 5% is an unreasonable estimate for the likelihood that there is a serious external shock to the UK economy in the next two and a half years.

    Right.

    My central forecast for 2024 is that the Conservatives drop a couple of percent at the headline level, but remain well above 40%. I'd make 41-42% my best guess. I think they will lose out slightly from tactical voting (particularly in the South East), and could lose all their Scottish seats. I'd reckon a majority of 20-50 is the most likely scenario. I’d say “reduced majority, but majority nonetheless” is about a 50% chance.

    Could they do better? Yep. There's a big post Covid boom going on right now - whether in the UK, the US or even the Eurozone (which, amazingly, outgrew the US and China in Q2). It's quite possible that this boom continues for a couple of years, in which case the Johnson government will benefit handily.

    This increased majority off the back of an economic boom, with rising wages, minimal unemployment, goldilocks scenario is a 20% chance in my mind.

    It is worth noting, though, that the timing of the next UK General Election is slightly further out than the government would really like. There are no free lunches in economics. And the UK economy is already pretty unbalanced - with imports significantly greater than exports. Right now, that's OK because foreigners have been very happy to invest in Britain - their money comes in, and it allows British consumers to spend more than they earn. If they stop being so happy to do that, then there will be difficulties ahead. Will this definitely happen in the next two and a half years? Nope. But it’s a real risk.

    To me, a post-Covid slowdown that results in the Conservatives losing their majority is around a 25% chance.

    You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Brexit. And that’s because voters are damned ungrateful. They demand something from you, and then they forget to thank you when you deliver it. Suddenly they care more about house prices, or about schools, or about mortgage rates, or the NHS or pensions, or inflation or something else.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Funny/odd how some people seemed to be surprised by the "5 million people are unvaccinated" figure. Because if 90% have been vaccinated, 10% of over 16s in the UK is about 5 million.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of whether the Conservatives can lose in 2024, the answer is 'of course they can'. Back in 2007, there were an awful lot of governments around the world that were flying high in the polls. Virtually none of them survived to 2011, because of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis.

    I don't think 5% is an unreasonable estimate for the likelihood that there is a serious external shock to the UK economy in the next two and a half years.

    Right.

    My central forecast for 2024 is that the Conservatives drop a couple of percent at the headline level, but remain well above 40%. I'd make 41-42% my best guess. I think they will lose out slightly from tactical voting (particularly in the South East), and could lose all their Scottish seats. I'd reckon a majority of 20-50 is the most likely scenario. I’d say “reduced majority, but majority nonetheless” is about a 50% chance.

    Could they do better? Yep. There's a big post Covid boom going on right now - whether in the UK, the US or even the Eurozone (which, amazingly, outgrew the US and China in Q2). It's quite possible that this boom continues for a couple of years, in which case the Johnson government will benefit handily.

    This increased majority off the back of an economic boom, with rising wages, minimal unemployment, goldilocks scenario is a 20% chance in my mind.

    It is worth noting, though, that the timing of the next UK General Election is slightly further out than the government would really like. There are no free lunches in economics. And the UK economy is already pretty unbalanced - with imports significantly greater than exports. Right now, that's OK because foreigners have been very happy to invest in Britain - their money comes in, and it allows British consumers to spend more than they earn. If they stop being so happy to do that, then there will be difficulties ahead. Will this definitely happen in the next two and a half years? Nope. But it’s a real risk.

    To me, a post-Covid slowdown that results in the Conservatives losing their majority is around a 25% chance.

    You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Brexit. And that’s because voters are damned ungrateful. They demand something from you, and then they forget to thank you when you deliver it. Suddenly they care more about house prices, or about schools, or about mortgage rates, or the NHS or pensions, or inflation or something else.

    Brexit is due to deliver billions of pounds a year – if not tens or even hundreds of billions. Of course, the electorate understands that these benefits may have been delayed by Brexit but why should they reward the fact of Brexit until its fruits are harvested?
  • rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of whether the Conservatives can lose in 2024, the answer is 'of course they can'. Back in 2007, there were an awful lot of governments around the world that were flying high in the polls. Virtually none of them survived to 2011, because of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis.

    I don't think 5% is an unreasonable estimate for the likelihood that there is a serious external shock to the UK economy in the next two and a half years.

    Right.

    My central forecast for 2024 is that the Conservatives drop a couple of percent at the headline level, but remain well above 40%. I'd make 41-42% my best guess. I think they will lose out slightly from tactical voting (particularly in the South East), and could lose all their Scottish seats. I'd reckon a majority of 20-50 is the most likely scenario. I’d say “reduced majority, but majority nonetheless” is about a 50% chance.

    Could they do better? Yep. There's a big post Covid boom going on right now - whether in the UK, the US or even the Eurozone (which, amazingly, outgrew the US and China in Q2). It's quite possible that this boom continues for a couple of years, in which case the Johnson government will benefit handily.

    This increased majority off the back of an economic boom, with rising wages, minimal unemployment, goldilocks scenario is a 20% chance in my mind.

    It is worth noting, though, that the timing of the next UK General Election is slightly further out than the government would really like. There are no free lunches in economics. And the UK economy is already pretty unbalanced - with imports significantly greater than exports. Right now, that's OK because foreigners have been very happy to invest in Britain - their money comes in, and it allows British consumers to spend more than they earn. If they stop being so happy to do that, then there will be difficulties ahead. Will this definitely happen in the next two and a half years? Nope. But it’s a real risk.

    To me, a post-Covid slowdown that results in the Conservatives losing their majority is around a 25% chance.

    You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Brexit. And that’s because voters are damned ungrateful. They demand something from you, and then they forget to thank you when you deliver it. Suddenly they care more about house prices, or about schools, or about mortgage rates, or the NHS or pensions, or inflation or something else.

    Brexit is due to deliver billions of pounds a year – if not tens or even hundreds of billions. Of course, the electorate understands that these benefits may have been delayed by Brexit but why should they reward the fact of Brexit until its fruits are harvested?
    Meant to say delayed by Covid – damn! The point is that while Brexit for some might have been a point of principle or sovereignty, for many if not most it was expected to lead to visible benefits in their personal, local and national prosperity. At some point, presumably after Covid, it will need to deliver. Otherwise there is no reason for voters to be grateful for the mere fact of Brexit.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,306
    Newsom defeats recall by a landslide.

    Currently 68-32 with approx 60% counted.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, didn’t expect it to be 2/1 in favour of the Govenor, that’s better than the most optimistic of forecasts.

    Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,

    Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    MikeL said:

    Newsom defeats recall by a landslide.

    Currently 68-32 with approx 60% counted.

    Wow.

    I didn't see that coming.

    I mean, the mood music was clearly Newsom's way, but I'm shocked how well he's done. It looks like he's even carrying places like Fresno Valley, which is a Republican stronghold.

    What's really interesting is how weak the Recall turnout has been - it looks like it's going to be well down on what Cox managed in 2018.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, didn’t expect it to be 2/1 in favour of the Govenor, that’s better than the most optimistic of forecasts.

    Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,

    Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
    Larry Elder could not have been a worse Republican candidate. My favourite of his off the cuff policies were:

    - Suggesting slave owners deserved compensation
    - Saying that of course he'd appoint a Republican to replace Feinstein

    The correct responses to the questions are "no", and "we need a Senator that represents all of California, and I'm not going to pick purely on partisan grounds".

    The Democrats were very lucky that Elder managed to grab all the headlines early on. They were also lucky that the State has avoided the latest Covid wave that engulfed Florida and the Deep South.
  • A line from Charlotte Johnson Wahl's obituary:
    Although she shunned publicity more than did some of her children...
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2021/09/14/charlotte-johnson-wahl-painter-original-vision-genius-johnson/ (£££)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, didn’t expect it to be 2/1 in favour of the Govenor, that’s better than the most optimistic of forecasts.

    Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,

    Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
    Larry Elder could not have been a worse Republican candidate. My favourite of his off the cuff policies were:

    - Suggesting slave owners deserved compensation
    - Saying that of course he'd appoint a Republican to replace Feinstein

    The correct responses to the questions are "no", and "we need a Senator that represents all of California, and I'm not going to pick purely on partisan grounds".

    The Democrats were very lucky that Elder managed to grab all the headlines early on. They were also lucky that the State has avoided the latest Covid wave that engulfed Florida and the Deep South.
    “Lucky”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, didn’t expect it to be 2/1 in favour of the Govenor, that’s better than the most optimistic of forecasts.

    Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,

    Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
    Larry Elder could not have been a worse Republican candidate. My favourite of his off the cuff policies were:

    - Suggesting slave owners deserved compensation
    - Saying that of course he'd appoint a Republican to replace Feinstein

    The correct responses to the questions are "no", and "we need a Senator that represents all of California, and I'm not going to pick purely on partisan grounds".

    The Democrats were very lucky that Elder managed to grab all the headlines early on. They were also lucky that the State has avoided the latest Covid wave that engulfed Florida and the Deep South.
    “Lucky”
    Fair point. CA took the pandemic seriously, and it also allowed cities some decent leeway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Starmer is a pathetic coward.

    https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21

    The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.

    What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?

    I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.

    This was an interesting thread which aligned with my view labour seems to be little more than a collection of single issue interest groups now and also the blairite view that you win from the centre.

    https://twitter.com/capellofft/status/1437716690851205122?s=21

    Labour and it’s leadership cannot protect and support a blind BAME MP who was, let’s face it, the perfect candidate for her role especially given her background and interest in the subject.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Taz said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Starmer is a pathetic coward.

    https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21

    The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.

    What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?

    I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.

    This was an interesting thread which aligned with my view labour seems to be little more than a collection of single issue interest groups now and also the blairite view that you win from the centre.

    https://twitter.com/capellofft/status/1437716690851205122?s=21

    Labour and it’s leadership cannot protect and support a blind BAME MP who was, let’s face it, the perfect candidate for her role especially given her background and interest in the subject.
    So now more a party of North London, than of Northern England…
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
    Not only this there’s the trans issue and trans activism issue that he ignores too that @cyclefree refers to a few posts above.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Starmer is a pathetic coward.

    https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21

    The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.

    What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?

    I don't normally read the comments on Twitter, because they tend to the batshit insane, especially on the trans issue - but weirdly, this is one sane comment after another without any sign of the trans-warriors.

    This was an interesting thread which aligned with my view labour seems to be little more than a collection of single issue interest groups now and also the blairite view that you win from the centre.

    https://twitter.com/capellofft/status/1437716690851205122?s=21

    Labour and it’s leadership cannot protect and support a blind BAME MP who was, let’s face it, the perfect candidate for her role especially given her background and interest in the subject.
    So now more a party of North London, than of Northern England…
    It’s certainly not a party for the North or England and hasn’t been for A while. Labour offer nothing to my community at the moment. I don’t know whether it’s a party of north London or not but I do know it’s a party which has lost touch with many of the communities it used to represent and has no plan to re engage and parts of the movement hold these areas in contempt. Not being the Tories is no longer enough.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429
    Taz said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Starmer has zero chance of being PM, save your money, unless he gains 45+ Seats at next election his party won’t give him another chance. And he ain’t getting that many being poster boy for remain and second ref.

    Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.

    And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.

    Of course he has a chance of becoming PM.

    Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.

    The question is really, what chance?

    And then you have to ask youself some questions:

    Will Boris be PM at the next election?

    Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.

    Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?

    Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.

    Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?

    Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.

    So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.

    .85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.

    Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
    No. This isn’t one where statistical math can save you, otherwise we can all be rich on political betting. It’s one where you either have a “feel” for what’s going out there or not.

    Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
    Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.

    To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.

    If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
    Not only this there’s the trans issue and trans activism issue that he ignores too that @cyclefree refers to a few posts above.
    Also the anti-Trans activism issue that too many people ignore.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,121
    Good morning everyone. A somewhat better day (14.4degC currently) weather-wise; yesterday looks likely to have scuppered Essex chance of beating Surrey, despite yet another century from Sir Chef!

    On topic, more or less, what have people got against Angela Rayner? She appears to me a someone who has pulled herself up by her own bootstraps; maybe she's got a few rough edges, and she hasn't the ascent that some of us have, but she seems to me to be a sensible, capable person who has learned from her life experiences. She was, I understand a good union rep, standing up for a group of people who are down at the bottom of the financial and conditions of work heaps.
    Sure, she's got some rough edges, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.
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