Categories
Starmer is back as favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is back as favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com
There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Considering the election is tomorrow, if he's seen the vote count result he might have a point!
But yes the counting hasn't started yet and no early voting data has been released, so no analysis of the results could have happened yet!
Though the serious betting point is that it seems the Republican is getting his excuses in early as to why the recall failed. So maybe pile in on betting No for the recall? Though I don't know if you can get good odds on No now anyway?
Thanks to the moral corruption of the GOP such transfers are no longer the case in America.
1 BoJo calls an election expecting to win and gets run over by a black swan. Anything can happen at backgammon and all that, but negligible percent, surely?
2 BoJo turns into John Major redux. He gets into a losing position and then can't be dislodged.
2a That could either be because his internal enemies can't agree on a successor, which saved JM in 1995. Rishi's recent stumbles have made that a bit more plausible.
2b Or it could be that his internal enemies write off the next election as a lost cause and focus on taking over as LotO after the defeat. That's a really ripe form of decay by a political party. It can happen, but I don't see it... yet.
Even if you take the view that the Conservatives aren't home and dry for the next election (though they might be waiting for an Uber, towel in hand), it's hard to see the Conservatives sticking with Johnson (or he with them) if a risk of defeat is looming.
There is probably a way of working out what that means in terms of next GE majority betting though, although I haven't really thought it through... If Sir Keir is only 21% likely to be next PM, that doesn't say much for Labours chance of denying the Tories a majority does it? Unless we think Boris is likely to hand it over to someone else pre GE24, which he seems to be ruling out.
Labour majority is a 13% chance, so that means only 8% chance of Sir Keir being PM of a coalition? That cant be right can it? Coalition has to be more likely, but I guess there is athe poss of leadership changes on both sides to factor in which makes it pretty tricky to concisely work out
Good line
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923
If the NHS can’t cope now - even after the proposed injection of cash - it never will.
Plus, we’ve heard this all before..
So when the period moves beyond the time frame of their previous models and it's time to produce some more suddenly they in effect forget everything they believe about the future course of the pandemic and we're back to R>1, rises to a peak over the next few weeks and a fall back to low levels. Never mind that a backwards look show the figures comparable or even better than the best case scenarios on their previous models, apparently even their best case models can't be trusted to be sustained.
No doubt that if performance exceeds their best case modelling for the next month or two, then the next set of models will be showing a dramatic imperative to lock everything down as the only way to save Christmas.
With T May outcomes.
It isn't likely, but it isn't negligible either.
This is what they are referring too. Green is plausible (seen in Scotland recently) blue just is highly unlikely, it shouldn’t be the headline figure.
If nothing else there would be self regulating behaviour change to suppress that peak.
https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1437893917098262530?s=20
However I would also make the Tories favourite for most seats.
In which case Starmer would become the first PM whose party did not win most seats at the last general election since Macdonald from 1931-1935
But you were claiming we were near herd immunity and that was what I was questioning. To go back to definitions, herd immunity is technically a measure of whether the virus can spread, and thus it relates to cases, not hospitalisations.
So when you claim R can't be 1.1 because we are too close to herd immunity for that to be possible, you are explicitly talking about cases, not the effects of those cases nor whether anyone cares.
I'm a little bearish on cases, certainly not 200+k/day bearish, I think they have a way to run because I don't think we're as close to herd immunity as you do. But ultimately, even with a now much improved ratio between cases, hospitalisations and deaths, there is still a relationship, and that means I think there will be more hospitalisations and deaths than you do.
What you actually need in this situation is what old Tories called "bottom". Enough inertia and momentum to keep going, but also enough sang-froid to scuttle the flagship if it was threatening the rest of the fleet. Psychotic loyalty to the king, except for the regular bouts of regicide. Don't knock it- it's what made Britain and the Conservative Party great.
Of course, the old Tories are largely extinct. It remains to be seen whether the new Tories possess a similar degree of bottom. Or if they're just a cult worshipping an arse.
It's all mail in, and every registered voter received ballots in the mail.
Technically, polls close at 8pm PST (for those returnng them by hand), and we'll start counting then.
We'll probably have a pretty good feel for the results by 915-930pm.
Not that the party is going to dump this loser before the next election. Looks like Labour has to go through the next election and hopefully find an electable leader afterwards, one who can put being a remainer party behind them and attract Lexits back. Though it won’t be easy, it’s a long way back from the electoral mess they are in, a lot has to unwind. It’s going to take time.
And to answer the other question, if Hartlepool bi election held today would result be different? No. Current polling shouts at us no. The Lexits who now vote Tory are not turning back, many of them gone for good. All those polls showing Boris had a great week last week, the electorate love what he’s doing - that’s his Lexits achieving that for him.
That is like watching a 1500m race between a runner who usually starts powerfully takes a big lead and makes it a real test of stamina, and one with a better PB who jogs the first 1200m but possesses a real sprint finish, and when they are neck and neck, and both jogging slowly, with 300m left, saying it looks like its going to be a dead heat
In time the prevalence will drop, but I shall continue to wear for the present.
Heck, you and @HYUFD and even @Leon have a chance of becoming PM.
The question is really, what chance?
And then you have to ask youself some questions:
Will Boris be PM at the next election?
Probably yes, absent ill health, dire polling, or something out of the blue. Let's say it's an 85% chance.
Will Starmer be Leader of the Labour Party at the next election?
Probably yes too, simply because there's no obvious replacement. I'm going with 75%.
Will the Conservatives fail to win a majority, and will Labour be near enough to form a coalition with others and install Starmer?
Unlikely. I've said I think the Conservatives are 65% to win next time around - but that includes the scenario when Boris has gone. If Boris is PM, it's because he (and his party) thinks he's going to win. So, let's say 70% chance of Conservative majority if Boris is PM. Plus, of course, there are a number of Conservative minority situations where Conservatives plus UUP/DUP is around 324 seats, which probably adds about percent or two. And there's also the scenario where there's no conceivable coalition and therefore there's another election.
So, finger in the air, I'd say he has a 23% chance of becoming PM if both he and Boris are in their jobs in 2024.
.85 * .75 * . 23 = 15% chance of being next PM, which makes 21% a sell.
Personally, I'd sell Rishi here too.
But that's not the same as "who will be the next PM?"
What I can't imagine (because I simply don't understand the current Conservative party) is who they go for if the Johnson experiment (and it is an experiment, because life is an experiment) fails. Two weeks ago, I'd have said Rishi. Now, I'm not so sure.
Are Labour making inroads bringing Lexits back from the Tory’s? The answer is no.
Are Labour proactive about all the reasons people won’t vote for them at next election? The answer is no. Hell no in fact, on this very blog last night Nick Palmer couldn’t see any reason for Starmer to dump Angela Rayner out the way before the next election. Dicky had his Henry, Maggie her willie, Blair his thumper. Starmer his Ang? 😂 The fact Nick and other Labour members on here just can’t see the necessity of changing her for a vote winner rather than loser is exactly why Starmer has zero chance. To go back to yes minister, the Starmer Project has no killer instinct.
To change the world you must first reform your own spirit. Starmer does nothing about Rayner. He has members on the NEC calling Priti Patel racist, and Starmer does nothing.
If this was 1985 you would argue Labour had a statistical chance of winning the following election. If you had a feel on the ground what was really happening you would have known their chance was zero.
https://twitter.com/susannarustin/status/1437855856620670979?s=21
The reason why Marsha Cordova resigned. And why Rosie Duffield MP cannot attend Conference because of threats to her by trans activists. Threats which Starmer has not condemned. He has been silent.
What is it about Labour leaders and female Labour MPs being threatened?
Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been banned from leaving the country amid an investigation into his alleged involvement in the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse.
A prosecutor is seeking charges against Mr Henry, who has been asked to explain his links with a key suspect in the killing, Joseph Felix Badio.
Records show the two men had multiple phone calls just hours after the assassination, prosecutors say...
On Monday, Mr Henry sent a letter purportedly sacking Chief Prosecutor Bed-Ford Claude and accusing him of a "serious administrative offence". He later nominated a replacement.
However, on Tuesday Mr Claude appeared to remain in his post as he asked a judge investigating the murder of Mr Moïse to charge the prime minister over his "suspected" involvement in the case.
Sources with knowledge of Haiti say it is not in the prime minister's remit to dismiss the prosecutor.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-58564831
Nobody knows what will happen in close to three years time. There could be a crisis that makes the GFC look benign. It could be that AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine causes cancer. There are a gazillion things that could happen.
Now, if you want to argue that the real chance of a Labour government in 2024 is more like 5 or 7%, that's a perfectly sensible discussion to have. But the idea that you *know* for sure what will happen is ridiculous. No-one does.
Edit to add: I should say labour led. There's nowhere near a 5-7% chance of a labour majority .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Shift in polls? Really? LEXITS back on board? Really?
The mindset you have betrayed on here Justin is utterly dangerous. Starmer needs to put some underperforming heads on spikes ASAP. Starmer needs to communicate to the monkeyhangers how he is going to build on the success of Brexit to level up their community and bring the good old days back. If he doesn’t do that he doesn’t get the seat back. And he isn’t doing it. And it’s your fault Justin as you are abetting his laziness and serious mistake.
2% rather than zero.
It’s not that I haven’t provided solid reasoning as to why.
As on topic, he has gone up taken lead in that table for precisely the reason he now has even less chance, ironically, Boris has had a good couple of weeks, so more likely to still be there next GE mopping up the Lexit vote.
As for it being my fault, I have actually been very critical of Starmer for persuading the Hartlepool MP to resign in the first place!
Both parties are taking with one hand and giving with the other, it comes down to what you prefer - higher wages and more job opportunities with the Tories, but 1.25% more NI, or lower wages and less job security with Labour, but they do something else they haven’t specified yet to raise money - tax the boss, so he pays you less/doesn’t employ as many people
Evergrande may be the poster child for a looming problem but there are many others just behind it.
As it sits at the moment the probability of a Conservative Government were the election to be called for 6 weeks time would probably be a 90% plus probability. However we are not talking of six weeks time it could be 2 to 2 and a half years time. My conviction is although the short term economy is booming there are already worrying economic signs on the horizon. Inflation is concerning me greatly, but perhaps unduly.
A Labour majority, without Scotland is as close to zero as is possible. However a loss of a Conservative majority is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility and by the time we reach the next election, circumstances may have eroded their popularity such that disillusioned working people who don't normally vote do so to rid themselves of a Government they disagree with. Additionally non Tory voters may vote smarter to eject the incumbent Tory MP. And all this could happen (unlikely granted) without the Conservatives losing a RedWall seat and an over 65 voter. Under such circumstances Starmer "could" be next PM.
I believe the Conservatives on here who remain so supremely confident for 2024 and 2028 must have already forgotten what almost happened to Mrs May's circa 25 point poll lead in 2017 over a short six week campaign.
What percentage of a goods on-the-shelf price is the pay of the trucker that moved it?
Working-class Britain won't topple the privileged
BY JAMES KIRKUP"
https://unherd.com/2021/09/of-course-posh-people-get-posh-jobs/
Of course, the aggregates industry is a very local one, and it's not going to break the bank in the general scheme of things.
Remember when on planes everyone used to watch the same film together as it was projected onto the front panel of each cabin? I think we ought to go back to that. It was more interesting.
I don't think 5% is an unreasonable estimate for the likelihood that there is a serious external shock to the UK economy in the next two and a half years.
Right.
My central forecast for 2024 is that the Conservatives drop a couple of percent at the headline level, but remain well above 40%. I'd make 41-42% my best guess. I think they will lose out slightly from tactical voting (particularly in the South East), and could lose all their Scottish seats. I'd reckon a majority of 20-50 is the most likely scenario. I’d say “reduced majority, but majority nonetheless” is about a 50% chance.
Could they do better? Yep. There's a big post Covid boom going on right now - whether in the UK, the US or even the Eurozone (which, amazingly, outgrew the US and China in Q2). It's quite possible that this boom continues for a couple of years, in which case the Johnson government will benefit handily.
This increased majority off the back of an economic boom, with rising wages, minimal unemployment, goldilocks scenario is a 20% chance in my mind.
It is worth noting, though, that the timing of the next UK General Election is slightly further out than the government would really like. There are no free lunches in economics. And the UK economy is already pretty unbalanced - with imports significantly greater than exports. Right now, that's OK because foreigners have been very happy to invest in Britain - their money comes in, and it allows British consumers to spend more than they earn. If they stop being so happy to do that, then there will be difficulties ahead. Will this definitely happen in the next two and a half years? Nope. But it’s a real risk.
To me, a post-Covid slowdown that results in the Conservatives losing their majority is around a 25% chance.
You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Brexit. And that’s because voters are damned ungrateful. They demand something from you, and then they forget to thank you when you deliver it. Suddenly they care more about house prices, or about schools, or about mortgage rates, or the NHS or pensions, or inflation or something else.
Currently 68-32 with approx 60% counted.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics
Perhaps the clear emergence of Larry Elder as the main rival from the long ballot list, convinced Dems to get out and vote,
Being California, of course, they’ll still be counting straggling postal votes a week from now, even with the result not in doubt.
I didn't see that coming.
I mean, the mood music was clearly Newsom's way, but I'm shocked how well he's done. It looks like he's even carrying places like Fresno Valley, which is a Republican stronghold.
What's really interesting is how weak the Recall turnout has been - it looks like it's going to be well down on what Cox managed in 2018.
- Suggesting slave owners deserved compensation
- Saying that of course he'd appoint a Republican to replace Feinstein
The correct responses to the questions are "no", and "we need a Senator that represents all of California, and I'm not going to pick purely on partisan grounds".
The Democrats were very lucky that Elder managed to grab all the headlines early on. They were also lucky that the State has avoided the latest Covid wave that engulfed Florida and the Deep South.
Although she shunned publicity more than did some of her children...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2021/09/14/charlotte-johnson-wahl-painter-original-vision-genius-johnson/ (£££)
This was an interesting thread which aligned with my view labour seems to be little more than a collection of single issue interest groups now and also the blairite view that you win from the centre.
https://twitter.com/capellofft/status/1437716690851205122?s=21
Labour and it’s leadership cannot protect and support a blind BAME MP who was, let’s face it, the perfect candidate for her role especially given her background and interest in the subject.
How many MPs are hounded out of their jobs or threatened physically for their stance ? How many trans women are subjected to violence from gender critical feminists ? It really is all one way traffic the other way and gender critical feminists are not anti trans. They are pro women and wish to protect their gains over the patriarchy.
How are gender critical feminists anti trans activists ?
On topic, more or less, what have people got against Angela Rayner? She appears to me a someone who has pulled herself up by her own bootstraps; maybe she's got a few rough edges, and she hasn't the ascent that some of us have, but she seems to me to be a sensible, capable person who has learned from her life experiences. She was, I understand a good union rep, standing up for a group of people who are down at the bottom of the financial and conditions of work heaps.
Sure, she's got some rough edges, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.
Richard Madeley is in the studio. Great. Love him
Larty Eldar is an absolute bellend.
I think he focused the minds of people.
The government will have a nasty shock if they try to impose another lockdown.
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
@ONS
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3% in the year to August 2021, up from 2.1% in July.
Driven by falls last August due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, the rise will likely be temporary http://ow.ly/U5Dc50Ga9LU