Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
Agreed. No dressing that up – Keir was badly wrong. Not a good look at all, and I was furious about it at the time.
Yes, if Keir had been in charge we'd still be locked down now. And now cases are dropping, he'd be saying it's down to lockdown. Peston-like levels of sagacity.
Chris Whitty tells Downing St press conference: "We really must encourage everyone we know to get vaccinated." Points out most unjabbed are not anti-vaxxer, they just haven't got round to it.
Bullllllllshitttttttt.......nobody is that busy not to find 15 mins to get jabbed over many many months.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 44m Well, that aged rather well. @Ofgem reports another two more UK power/gas retailers have just collapsed with a combined clientele of ~570,000 homes. And again, they would not be the last ones. Buy floating, selling fixed is not a very good business model right now
F***sake. I'm with UP and have been for a few years. I thought they were solid and renewed on a decent 18 month deal just three months ago. Now I'll get lumped on a terrible deal.
I thought they had an industry agreement that meant “sold” customers are kept on the same tariff until it naturally expired.
I might be wrong tho
Sorry I gave the wrong info, based on personal experience - when my supplier went bust a couple of years back, the new one chose to honour my tariff. There is no industry agreement.
More than the entire population of New Zealand. Or, if you prefer, an entire Scotland's worth of people who are eligible yet unvaxxed. A five-million-strong demos of Duras Ace and Contrarians. Scary stuff.
Is Peston paid by the word or the minute? Incapable of asking a question in under 500 words and three minutes.
Its because he thinks it makes him sound highly intelligent and informed....anybody who just is a massive jumble of word salad normally know jack shit and is just a bullshit artist.
The best academics i have worked with can explain a really complex concept in a few very simple sentences.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
Agreed. No dressing that up – Keir was badly wrong. Not a good look at all, and I was furious about it at the time.
Yes, if Keir had been in charge we'd still be locked down now. And now cases are dropping, he'd be saying it's down to lockdown. Peston-like levels of sagacity.
Exactly - Imagine that - if Sir Keir were PM we would be labouring under the false impression that his continued lockdown was the reason cases had dropped, and that would in turn justify more and more imposition of restrictions.
Boris's easing of them was proven correct and now a different precedent has been set
One for the Tories to mention time and again at the next GE
Chris Whitty tells Downing St press conference: "We really must encourage everyone we know to get vaccinated." Points out most unjabbed are not anti-vaxxer, they just haven't got round to it.
Bullllllllshitttttttt.......nobody is that busy not to find 15 mins to get jabbed over many many months.
Agreed. The vast majority of unvaxxers are indeed antivaxxers as Whitty damn well knows.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
I do think there are people who really wish there were 100,000 + cases a day, just so Boris Johnson could get the blame for them.
It's like some American I read about, who waited until after 6th January to get hospital treatment for Covid so that "my death's on Biden."
I wonder who on here might fit that category? BTW is ScottnPaste posting today?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
I see that The MP for Battersea is going to spend more time on holding her marginal seat, or is she finding a new excuse to stand down?
"Marsha de Cordova MP @MarshadeCordova · 54m 2/2 Having only been elected in 2017 for the historically marginal constituency of Battersea, I would like to focus more of my time and efforts on the people of Battersea.
I will continue to support Keir Starmer from the backbenches."
About as believable as the dog ate my USB stick with my course work.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Crying wolf isn't responsible opposition, and it's not a free lunch for him anyway - we now have concrete evidence that his fearmongering was ill founded, it is a rich seam of material for the Tories to use against him at the next GE
"Sir Keir would have had you locked up, Boris set you free"
A great example of the problems with central planning/full blown industrial policy: 15 skyscrapers in China that were part of the Liyang Star City Phase II Project were just demolished after sitting unfinished for eight years due to no market demand. https://t.co/qzjxLnHQ2k
I linked to that a few days back.
LOling at the one that didn't fall over. But on a serious note, I do wonder if China is heading for a serious bust.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
I do think there are people who really wish there were 100,000 + cases a day, just so Boris Johnson could get the blame for them.
It's like some American I read about, who waited until after 6th January to get hospital treatment for Covid so that "my death's on Biden."
Of course there were - now they bang on about empty shelves instead.It's easy to moan, moan, moan when you don't have to admit you got it wrong and can just move on to the next one
Chris Whitty tells Downing St press conference: "We really must encourage everyone we know to get vaccinated." Points out most unjabbed are not anti-vaxxer, they just haven't got round to it.
Bullllllllshitttttttt.......nobody is that busy not to find 15 mins to get jabbed over many many months.
Agreed. The vast majority of unvaxxers are indeed antivaxxers as Whitty damn well knows.
Are there any statistics on this?
The take up rate is lower amongst the young which could well be due to them not getting round to it because they don't see it as necessary, rather them being anti-vax as such.
Mr. Boy, ah, I just about remember those indicative votes.
Though worth noting Labour did thrice vote against May's softer deal. Then bemoaned the obvious consequence of a more anti-EU PM coming in.
Edited extra bit: Incidentally, like Socrates at the market I decided not to buy something I didn't need. This is entirely because of my iron discipline, and not because I'm enjoying Dragon Age: Origins so much that any PS5 game would be a downward step.
May's deal was just Johnson's deal with a more workable solution for the Irish border and worse PR. I am exaggerating, but as the bitterest of Remoaners I don't look back longingly at May's Brexit deal as some kind of lost soft Brexit nirvana, believe me. In fact I prefer the current deal as its idiocy is likely to manifest itself more quickly, as is indeed happening.
For me an upside of the alternative reality in which May's deal passed is that Boris Johnson would probably not be the Prime Minister. This is what Brexit, as it panned out, has delivered to us - him. It's not a benefit. Indeed it's the very opposite and it would take some quite stonking gains to balance the books.
I think Boris Johnson as PM had a kind of historical inevitability about it. A country that still instinctively doffs its cap to a posho and has had such a charmed life that it thinks you can elect a joker like him and suffer no consequences was bound to end up with him in charge sooner or later. He is the leader we deserve.
It’s sad, it really is. Such a sad sad situation. And despite recent glimmers in the polls I can see it getting more and more sad. Johnson is an arch surfer of class deference in pursuit of power and gratification and it’s this, not some exceptional “comic gift”, which has driven his rise to a position for which he hasn’t the slightest aptitude. He must be laughing his socks off at us. This is why I hate him. It’s not because he’s a Tory, I’ve lived most of my life under Tory PMs and haven’t felt this way about any of them. It’s not because of Brexit either. That was a shock, the Leave win, but I soon got my head around it. Just means we leave the EU. I remember the ballot paper well and there was no box to tick asking “Is it ok by you if the country is run by a vacuous poshboy?”
You do understand that his ability to infuriate people like you, as we see here, is one reason people like me vote for him?
You started this culture war, this is what happens in a war. Own it
If one thing driving the politics of people like you is infuriating people like me, this confirms the views held by people like me about people like you.
Yep, we hate you. We really do. It's not fake. It's actual, high-octane hatred
Look, no need for this to get heated. All I'm saying is that in my view people who positively like Boris Johnson as a politician are lacking in either perception or self-respect. It's nothing personal.
I like Boris Johnson as a game show host. I have no particular enthusiasm for him as an administrator. But the level of hatred that people have for him is insane. He's NOT there due to some class deference thing. He's there because a) he is, actually, quite good at politics, in the sense of winning leadership contests and elections, and b) because the opposition was fronted by the worst candidate in British history.
Mr. Ping, got to show just how green and virtuous the government is (not unique to this one, all of them to Blair at least have done it). Can't nasty coal and gas power. I mean, yes, they keep the lights on but, boo! Carbon!*
Meanwhile, in China...
*I've caricatured my position slightly. I do think most renewables have some promise. But wind is stupid because it's unpredictable, and we need sufficient capacity from coal/gas/nuclear to crank out what we need. And now we're paying through the nose because politicians want to parade their green credentials and can easily afford to do so. Cf boilers.
Why not take the HS2 budget and reallocate to offshore wind ?
We've got one of the richest potential assets in the world here, and can flog to the Germans, Dutch, Belgiums on windy days who all have far less territorial waters per head than we do.
It'd power our electric cars too.
I know it's not that windy right now but with enough capacity you can break simply outbuild quiet days since there is pretty much always wind at sea.
I'm not even particularly in favour of this for green arguments, though they are a nice bonus on top.
We have 24GW of wind capacity, (on and offshore) and it's currently generating 2GW and hasn't topped 5GW in the last 20 days.
On days of max power requirement (mid winter, high presssure, clear skies, freezing) there is no wind.
The more intermittent capacity we build, the more has to be spent on back-up capacity to sit there with its finger up its arse* waiting to be called on when it is overcast and windless. It just raises costs.
We need low-carbon dispatchable generation. Or CCS, as it is also known.
*Also known as receiving a capacity payment.
I am a massive CCS sceptic. From wiki (yes, I know...):
"Despite carbon capture increasingly appearing in policymakers' proposals to address climate change,[11] existing CCS technologies have significant shortcomings that limit their ability to reduce or negate carbon emissions; current CCS processes are usually less economical than renewable sources of energy[12][13] and most remain unproven at scale.[14] Opponents also point out that many CCS projects have failed to deliver on promised emissions reductions. [15]"
Sorry, but that is a distorted and incomplete account. Ask the renewables crowd what the cost is of delivering dispatchable power. And without CCS, how do we decarbonise industry and heating?
CCS with biomass fuel can even give net negative emissions. More readily than direct air capture, for sure.
Okay, I know you're a great fan of CCS. It's just that such schemes have been discussed for years - as I believe both of is have on here. And yet I'm not seeing many large-scale projects coming on stream, especially in non-EOR environments.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Its like nobody remembers his call for firebreaks based on massively dodgy data.
Mr. Boy, ah, I just about remember those indicative votes.
Though worth noting Labour did thrice vote against May's softer deal. Then bemoaned the obvious consequence of a more anti-EU PM coming in.
Edited extra bit: Incidentally, like Socrates at the market I decided not to buy something I didn't need. This is entirely because of my iron discipline, and not because I'm enjoying Dragon Age: Origins so much that any PS5 game would be a downward step.
May's deal was just Johnson's deal with a more workable solution for the Irish border and worse PR. I am exaggerating, but as the bitterest of Remoaners I don't look back longingly at May's Brexit deal as some kind of lost soft Brexit nirvana, believe me. In fact I prefer the current deal as its idiocy is likely to manifest itself more quickly, as is indeed happening.
For me an upside of the alternative reality in which May's deal passed is that Boris Johnson would probably not be the Prime Minister. This is what Brexit, as it panned out, has delivered to us - him. It's not a benefit. Indeed it's the very opposite and it would take some quite stonking gains to balance the books.
I think Boris Johnson as PM had a kind of historical inevitability about it. A country that still instinctively doffs its cap to a posho and has had such a charmed life that it thinks you can elect a joker like him and suffer no consequences was bound to end up with him in charge sooner or later. He is the leader we deserve.
It’s sad, it really is. Such a sad sad situation. And despite recent glimmers in the polls I can see it getting more and more sad. Johnson is an arch surfer of class deference in pursuit of power and gratification and it’s this, not some exceptional “comic gift”, which has driven his rise to a position for which he hasn’t the slightest aptitude. He must be laughing his socks off at us. This is why I hate him. It’s not because he’s a Tory, I’ve lived most of my life under Tory PMs and haven’t felt this way about any of them. It’s not because of Brexit either. That was a shock, the Leave win, but I soon got my head around it. Just means we leave the EU. I remember the ballot paper well and there was no box to tick asking “Is it ok by you if the country is run by a vacuous poshboy?”
You do understand that his ability to infuriate people like you, as we see here, is one reason people like me vote for him?
You started this culture war, this is what happens in a war. Own it
If one thing driving the politics of people like you is infuriating people like me, this confirms the views held by people like me about people like you.
Yep, we hate you. We really do. It's not fake. It's actual, high-octane hatred
Look, no need for this to get heated. All I'm saying is that in my view people who positively like Boris Johnson as a politician are lacking in either perception or self-respect. It's nothing personal.
I like Boris Johnson as a game show host. I have no particular enthusiasm for him as an administrator. But the level of hatred that people have for him is insane. He's NOT there due to some class deference thing. He's there because a) he is, actually, quite good at politics, in the sense of winning leadership contests and elections, and b) because the opposition was fronted by the worst candidate in British history.
He is also extremely resilient and focused, as just seen he has managed to front a press conference less than 24 hrs after his own mother died despite the personal grief he must be feeling.
He also has charisma, on a par with Blair and Thatcher, who are the other most successful general election winning PMs of the last 50 years
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
That's very true from a Game Theory / betting POV – it was smart politics.
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
Boris Johnson says vaccine passports would have been a “game changer - a life saver” if they were around last year as they would have allowed pubs to stay open. He “reserves the right” to bring them in but “at present we don’t think it’s necessary”
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
That's very true from a Game Theory / betting POV – it was smart politics.
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
The fact that Boris didn't listen to Sir Keir, and Boris was proven right, means that it wasn't a free option though. Come the next GE, journalists will ask Sir Keir "Were you wrong, in hindsight, to say restrictions should not be lifted before cases fell in Summer 2021?"
Mr. Boy, ah, I just about remember those indicative votes.
Though worth noting Labour did thrice vote against May's softer deal. Then bemoaned the obvious consequence of a more anti-EU PM coming in.
Edited extra bit: Incidentally, like Socrates at the market I decided not to buy something I didn't need. This is entirely because of my iron discipline, and not because I'm enjoying Dragon Age: Origins so much that any PS5 game would be a downward step.
May's deal was just Johnson's deal with a more workable solution for the Irish border and worse PR. I am exaggerating, but as the bitterest of Remoaners I don't look back longingly at May's Brexit deal as some kind of lost soft Brexit nirvana, believe me. In fact I prefer the current deal as its idiocy is likely to manifest itself more quickly, as is indeed happening.
For me an upside of the alternative reality in which May's deal passed is that Boris Johnson would probably not be the Prime Minister. This is what Brexit, as it panned out, has delivered to us - him. It's not a benefit. Indeed it's the very opposite and it would take some quite stonking gains to balance the books.
I think Boris Johnson as PM had a kind of historical inevitability about it. A country that still instinctively doffs its cap to a posho and has had such a charmed life that it thinks you can elect a joker like him and suffer no consequences was bound to end up with him in charge sooner or later. He is the leader we deserve.
It’s sad, it really is. Such a sad sad situation. And despite recent glimmers in the polls I can see it getting more and more sad. Johnson is an arch surfer of class deference in pursuit of power and gratification and it’s this, not some exceptional “comic gift”, which has driven his rise to a position for which he hasn’t the slightest aptitude. He must be laughing his socks off at us. This is why I hate him. It’s not because he’s a Tory, I’ve lived most of my life under Tory PMs and haven’t felt this way about any of them. It’s not because of Brexit either. That was a shock, the Leave win, but I soon got my head around it. Just means we leave the EU. I remember the ballot paper well and there was no box to tick asking “Is it ok by you if the country is run by a vacuous poshboy?”
You do understand that his ability to infuriate people like you, as we see here, is one reason people like me vote for him?
You started this culture war, this is what happens in a war. Own it
If one thing driving the politics of people like you is infuriating people like me, this confirms the views held by people like me about people like you.
Yep, we hate you. We really do. It's not fake. It's actual, high-octane hatred
Look, no need for this to get heated. All I'm saying is that in my view people who positively like Boris Johnson as a politician are lacking in either perception or self-respect. It's nothing personal.
I like Boris Johnson as a game show host. I have no particular enthusiasm for him as an administrator. But the level of hatred that people have for him is insane. He's NOT there due to some class deference thing. He's there because a) he is, actually, quite good at politics, in the sense of winning leadership contests and elections, and b) because the opposition was fronted by the worst candidate in British history.
He is also extremely resilient and focused, as just seen he has managed to front a press conference less than 24 hrs after his own mother died despite the personal grief he must be feeling.
He also has charisma, on a par with Blair and Thatcher, who are the other most successful general election winning PMs of the last 50 years
Yes, he's good at politics; he's also consistently dishonest.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
That's very true from a Game Theory / betting POV – it was smart politics.
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
But he didn't want it retained for longer. If anything his comments ensured that step 4 went ahead. Johnson would never wish to look like he was being influenced by Starmer.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
That's very true from a Game Theory / betting POV – it was smart politics.
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
Ditto. The Conservatives have been needlessly authoritarian, but Labour have lost no opportunity to show that they would have been far, far worse.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Yes - it was an entirely cynical gesture. But pressure for entirely cynical reasons has led the government to impose needless restrictions before. Fortunately now Matt Hancock's gone the government is now rather better at resisting pressure like this.
Chris Whitty tells Downing St press conference: "We really must encourage everyone we know to get vaccinated." Points out most unjabbed are not anti-vaxxer, they just haven't got round to it.
Bullllllllshitttttttt.......nobody is that busy not to find 15 mins to get jabbed over many many months.
Agreed. The vast majority of unvaxxers are indeed antivaxxers as Whitty damn well knows.
You might be surprised.
I am quite sure that in 1942 there were people asking "What war?".
More than the entire population of New Zealand. Or, if you prefer, an entire Scotland's worth of people who are eligible yet unvaxxed. A five-million-strong demos of Duras Ace and Contrarians. Scary stuff.
At around a million cases per month, half in the unvaxxed, that is a years worth of dry timber.
Looks like we won't be getting our staff back from ICU for a while. 🙄
Positive tests now falling at 14%/week. Deaths and hospitalisations heading towards parity.
What's going on? Are schools the dog that did not bark?
Weird, isn't it.
Different behaviour during the holidays? Didn't work that way last year though. The warm spell a week ago?
Maybe the travel restrictions are working better. Last summer loads of people managed to brink back the bug, despite only being allowed to travel to countries with low prevalence
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
That's very true from a Game Theory / betting POV – it was smart politics.
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
The fact that Boris didn't listen to Sir Keir, and Boris was proven right, means that it wasn't a free option though. Come the next GE, journalists will ask Sir Keir "Were you wrong, in hindsight, to say restrictions should not be lifted before cases fell in Summer 2021?"
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Its like nobody remembers his call for firebreaks based on massively dodgy data.
We can go generic here. Throughout the pandemic nobody "out there" has given a flying fuck about what Starmer and Labour think about anything. This is why those old chestnuts like "the opposition should be 10 points clear mid term" do not apply. If the polls are truly getting close this is quite good for Labour.
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
We were talking about how most famous people have others do their social media or very least filter it.....i think we can safely say Nick big balls Minaj doesn't...not just the antivaxxer stuff, but pretty racist stuff as well.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Its like nobody remembers his call for firebreaks based on massively dodgy data.
We can go generic here. Throughout the pandemic nobody "out there" has given a flying fuck about what Starmer and Labour think about anything. This is why those old chestnuts like "the opposition should be 10 points clear mid term" do not apply. If the polls are truly getting close this is quite good for Labour.
In that case, they have the luxury to stop being so cynical.
And we're now significantly behind a stack of EU countries on the % with a first jab. So what can we learn from other countries about how to encourage / cajole the unvaxxed to have it?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Also what would have been worse? The 100k a day spike that Javid predicted which then quickly drops away? Or what we have where its been sustained 30-40k for week after week with no end in sight and the medics saying expect worse?
I see that The MP for Battersea is going to spend more time on holding her marginal seat, or is she finding a new excuse to stand down?
"Marsha de Cordova MP @MarshadeCordova · 54m 2/2 Having only been elected in 2017 for the historically marginal constituency of Battersea, I would like to focus more of my time and efforts on the people of Battersea.
I will continue to support Keir Starmer from the backbenches."
About as believable as the dog ate my USB stick with my course work.
Marginal seat ... she had a 6k Labour majority in a year in the Tories won a huge victory.
OK, it has changed hands in recent years, but Battersea (like most of London) is trending Labour.
Demographics will turn her majority into > 10k by 2024.
Mr. Boy, ah, I just about remember those indicative votes.
Though worth noting Labour did thrice vote against May's softer deal. Then bemoaned the obvious consequence of a more anti-EU PM coming in.
Edited extra bit: Incidentally, like Socrates at the market I decided not to buy something I didn't need. This is entirely because of my iron discipline, and not because I'm enjoying Dragon Age: Origins so much that any PS5 game would be a downward step.
May's deal was just Johnson's deal with a more workable solution for the Irish border and worse PR. I am exaggerating, but as the bitterest of Remoaners I don't look back longingly at May's Brexit deal as some kind of lost soft Brexit nirvana, believe me. In fact I prefer the current deal as its idiocy is likely to manifest itself more quickly, as is indeed happening.
For me an upside of the alternative reality in which May's deal passed is that Boris Johnson would probably not be the Prime Minister. This is what Brexit, as it panned out, has delivered to us - him. It's not a benefit. Indeed it's the very opposite and it would take some quite stonking gains to balance the books.
I think Boris Johnson as PM had a kind of historical inevitability about it. A country that still instinctively doffs its cap to a posho and has had such a charmed life that it thinks you can elect a joker like him and suffer no consequences was bound to end up with him in charge sooner or later. He is the leader we deserve.
It’s sad, it really is. Such a sad sad situation. And despite recent glimmers in the polls I can see it getting more and more sad. Johnson is an arch surfer of class deference in pursuit of power and gratification and it’s this, not some exceptional “comic gift”, which has driven his rise to a position for which he hasn’t the slightest aptitude. He must be laughing his socks off at us. This is why I hate him. It’s not because he’s a Tory, I’ve lived most of my life under Tory PMs and haven’t felt this way about any of them. It’s not because of Brexit either. That was a shock, the Leave win, but I soon got my head around it. Just means we leave the EU. I remember the ballot paper well and there was no box to tick asking “Is it ok by you if the country is run by a vacuous poshboy?”
You do understand that his ability to infuriate people like you, as we see here, is one reason people like me vote for him?
You started this culture war, this is what happens in a war. Own it
If one thing driving the politics of people like you is infuriating people like me, this confirms the views held by people like me about people like you.
Yep, we hate you. We really do. It's not fake. It's actual, high-octane hatred
Look, no need for this to get heated. All I'm saying is that in my view people who positively like Boris Johnson as a politician are lacking in either perception or self-respect. It's nothing personal.
You don't get it. For me, it is personal. I might come round to that fabulous, leafy little bar in Belsize Park with the enormous beer garden, and throw organic quinoa at you
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
That's fantastic. I was really concerned about the schools going back, but it appears that antibody levels in kids are now high enough that there simply aren't that many outbreaks.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
And we're now significantly behind a stack of EU countries on the % with a first jab. So what can we learn from other countries about how to encourage / cajole the unvaxxed to have it?
And we're now significantly behind a stack of EU countries on the % with a first jab. So what can we learn from other countries about how to encourage / cajole the unvaxxed to have it?
We are actually not very different on like-for-like comparisons - 92% 18+ take-up.
The comparisons you are seeing are for countries that are already vaccinating down to 12.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
The peak cases day across the UK looks to be 6th September. That was the day my eldest started back at secondary school. I had anticipated that would be when cases started to ramp up!
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wont it make the lockdown sceptics, who said we should protect the elderly and let the young uns run free from the start, wonder whether they were right all along?
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
I walked through Soho on Saturday night. It was exactly like you described – bars absolutely jumping, people dancing and shouting to techno, people even dancing on the streets in the lovely warm evening. It was as if the pandemic had never happened.
And we're now significantly behind a stack of EU countries on the % with a first jab. So what can we learn from other countries about how to encourage / cajole the unvaxxed to have it?
I'm really not sure it matters. The maximum number of people that can enter the hospitalisation funnel from the unvaccinated by choice cohort is actually very small now, maybe around 20-40k in total given the age and risk profile. They've now made that choice to not get the vaccine and take that risk.
Ultimately if they ever want to go on holiday they will need to get vaccinated, eventually when programmes across Europe finish countries will put up a hard vaccine wall and we should too. That will motivate a lot of people to get it.
Mr. Ping, got to show just how green and virtuous the government is (not unique to this one, all of them to Blair at least have done it). Can't nasty coal and gas power. I mean, yes, they keep the lights on but, boo! Carbon!*
Meanwhile, in China...
*I've caricatured my position slightly. I do think most renewables have some promise. But wind is stupid because it's unpredictable, and we need sufficient capacity from coal/gas/nuclear to crank out what we need. And now we're paying through the nose because politicians want to parade their green credentials and can easily afford to do so. Cf boilers.
Why not take the HS2 budget and reallocate to offshore wind ?
We've got one of the richest potential assets in the world here, and can flog to the Germans, Dutch, Belgiums on windy days who all have far less territorial waters per head than we do.
It'd power our electric cars too.
I know it's not that windy right now but with enough capacity you can break simply outbuild quiet days since there is pretty much always wind at sea.
I'm not even particularly in favour of this for green arguments, though they are a nice bonus on top.
We have 24GW of wind capacity, (on and offshore) and it's currently generating 2GW and hasn't topped 5GW in the last 20 days.
On days of max power requirement (mid winter, high presssure, clear skies, freezing) there is no wind.
The more intermittent capacity we build, the more has to be spent on back-up capacity to sit there with its finger up its arse* waiting to be called on when it is overcast and windless. It just raises costs.
We need low-carbon dispatchable generation. Or CCS, as it is also known.
*Also known as receiving a capacity payment.
I am a massive CCS sceptic. From wiki (yes, I know...):
"Despite carbon capture increasingly appearing in policymakers' proposals to address climate change,[11] existing CCS technologies have significant shortcomings that limit their ability to reduce or negate carbon emissions; current CCS processes are usually less economical than renewable sources of energy[12][13] and most remain unproven at scale.[14] Opponents also point out that many CCS projects have failed to deliver on promised emissions reductions. [15]"
Sorry, but that is a distorted and incomplete account. Ask the renewables crowd what the cost is of delivering dispatchable power. And without CCS, how do we decarbonise industry and heating?
CCS with biomass fuel can even give net negative emissions. More readily than direct air capture, for sure.
Okay, I know you're a great fan of CCS. It's just that such schemes have been discussed for years - as I believe both of is have on here. And yet I'm not seeing many large-scale projects coming on stream, especially in non-EOR environments.
It is coming. Norway, Netherlands, Canada and, wait for it, right here in the UK. Expect to hear some news ahead of COP26.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wont it make the lockdown sceptics, who said we should protect the elderly and let the young uns run free from the start, wonder whether they were right all along?
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
That's fantastic. I was really concerned about the schools going back, but it appears that antibody levels in kids are now high enough that there simply aren't that many outbreaks.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
Given the relative perfoemance of Scotland and England after schools went back i think a reasonable hypothesis is that the England Euro performance "pulled forward" England infections.
And we're now significantly behind a stack of EU countries on the % with a first jab. So what can we learn from other countries about how to encourage / cajole the unvaxxed to have it?
We're really not. The UK is at about 91% of adults having had at least one jab. That's *way* ahead of Germany and Eastern Europe, and in-line with the best perfomers in the West.
I also hate to say it, but Macron's gamble may have paid off. The French are getting their vaccinations, the third wave is in retreat there, and the demonstrations are dying down.
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
That's fantastic. I was really concerned about the schools going back, but it appears that antibody levels in kids are now high enough that there simply aren't that many outbreaks.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
Given the relative perfoemance of Scotland and England after schools went back i think a reasonable hypothesis is that the England Euro performance "pulled forward" England infections.
If only Scotland had stayed in the tournament longer!! *
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
That's fantastic. I was really concerned about the schools going back, but it appears that antibody levels in kids are now high enough that there simply aren't that many outbreaks.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
Yes, the latter point is key. If we have shown that vaccination plus natural immunity is enough to break Delta's hold on the country then everyone else will eye the same route.
What stuck out to me a few weeks ago was the ONS report showing that new infections are occurring in 80% unvaccinated or previously uninfected people, 12% in single jabbed and 8% in double jabbed. That means the crossover for new infections with immune people is still very low. The big summer wave of infections was definitely the correct decision, lots of us said it at the time, better to have the unvaccinated by choice get it in the summer than in the winter.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wont it make the lockdown sceptics, who said we should protect the elderly and let the young uns run free from the start, wonder whether they were right all along?
That was my original thoughts on what to do. I was wrong. If they had locked down just the elderly/vulnerable then it would most likely have been 70+. There would have been a lot of people aged 40 upwards who would have died, most likely those who were overweight.
There were many difficult decisions to get right. The ones they got wrong were when to lockdown (at least a week too late) and when to close international travel or implement strict quarantines for it. Although these steps seem logical and obvious now, at the time they were unprecedented steps that no freedom loving person wants to embrace.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just for everyone still saying on TV interviews or in other parts of the media that "Cases are rising", here's a graph of what cases in England are *actually* doing. That bit where they're lower on the right than to the left: that means they're falling. I hope this clears that up
There was an epic episode from one or more posters on here the other day when they claimed cases were rising to record levels, when they were in fact falling at that time. That said, the very same poster(s) predicted 100,000 cases 'next week' in the middle of July, insisted that pubs wouldn't be allowed to open outside on 12 April because it wasn't viable, and continue to make hysterical and inaccurate hyperbolic comments, seemingly for their own warped entertainment.
So it's not just the media – there's a lot of luxuriating in doom about.
It's a very popular pastime.
Dont forget Sir Keir's prophecies of doom regarding the 'Johnson Variant' and the summer of chaos in the NHS that would result from lifting restrictions
If he'd been right it would have paid off big time but being wrong didn't carry equal downside. Apart from you everybody's forgotten about it. So it was a win v flat bet. You of all people should appreciate that you do those given the chance.
Its like nobody remembers his call for firebreaks based on massively dodgy data.
We can go generic here. Throughout the pandemic nobody "out there" has given a flying fuck about what Starmer and Labour think about anything...
Might have helped if they'd actually bothered to oppose in any significant way.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wont it make the lockdown sceptics, who said we should protect the elderly and let the young uns run free from the start, wonder whether they were right all along?
That would always have been the best way - the question has always been how easy it to genuinely protect the elderly?
It just takes one infected young person to go into a hospital or old peoples' home, and there is carnage. Genuinely segmenting the population is a non-trivial problem.
Only one country managed it that I can think of. And that's Denmark. And they achieved it via (a) very few intergenerational households, (b) massive testing of people who might come into contact with oldies, (c) a vaccination programme that emphasised people who came into contact with lots of other people, and (d) everybody being forced to carry an app around that showed the time and results of their last test.
Wow an almost 30% fall WoW in England and it also looks like deaths are now starting to trend downwards too following the hospitalisation trend.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
That's fantastic. I was really concerned about the schools going back, but it appears that antibody levels in kids are now high enough that there simply aren't that many outbreaks.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
I do wonder how NZ and the states in Australia with no cases are going to integrate themselves back into the world. Even if they fully vaccinate then Delta will still spread with no restrictions. As soon as they open their doors and with minimal resistance from people previously infected they are going to be in difficulty.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Wont it make the lockdown sceptics, who said we should protect the elderly and let the young uns run free from the start, wonder whether they were right all along?
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
If it is the case then reopening in June/July and getting loads of young people into the immunity funnel over the summer will be seen as a masterstroke and countries which failed to do it will need to try and attempt it over the winter which is going to be very ugly.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
Which was the government argument for opening up when we did rather than taking iSAGE zero covidians demands of waiting, where it was pointed out we would be opening up into the autumn / winter.
Not that they will get any credit nor that iSAGE-ians will admit they were wrong, just like vaccine dosage gap.
And it is worth remembering that it should continue to drop from here, as more people get infected and we continue our second (and third) and kids jabbing.
Comments
Are they just going to skip over the JCVI that seems to wet itself whenever more vaccinations are proposed ?
Jeez...
Bullllllllshitttttttt.......nobody is that busy not to find 15 mins to get jabbed over many many months.
"The perfect accompaniment for a roast guinea fowl and braised cavolo nero. Alternatively, serve with a creamy mushroom risotto."
What is a cavolo nero and do you need a licence to keep one?
Looks like some people are in for a shock.
Take a few days off, Prime Minister. Seriously.
Incapable of asking a question in under 500 words and three minutes.
What could possibly go wrong...
The best academics i have worked with can explain a really complex concept in a few very simple sentences.
Boris's easing of them was proven correct and now a different precedent has been set
One for the Tories to mention time and again at the next GE
The elongated vowels alone take up several hours per sentence.
"Sir Keir would have had you locked up, Boris set you free"
LOling at the one that didn't fall over. But on a serious note, I do wonder if China is heading for a serious bust.
Oh, and here's a great term: Tofu-Dreg project
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tofu-dreg_project
The take up rate is lower amongst the young which could well be due to them not getting round to it because they don't see it as necessary, rather them being anti-vax as such.
What's going on? Are schools the dog that did not bark?
He's NOT there due to some class deference thing. He's there because a) he is, actually, quite good at politics, in the sense of winning leadership contests and elections, and b) because the opposition was fronted by the worst candidate in British history.
UK: 37,489 -> 26,628 (-29.0%)
England: 27,545 -> 19,739 (-28.3%)
Scotland: 5,692 -> 3,375 (-40.7%)
NI: 1,748 -> 1,590 (-9.0%)
Wales: 2,504 -> 1,924 (-23.1%)
Different behaviour during the holidays? Didn't work that way last year though. The warm spell a week ago?
He also has charisma, on a par with Blair and Thatcher, who are the other most successful general election winning PMs of the last 50 years
That still doesn't justify it.
By that stage in the game it had been illegal to have more than five guests in your house under any circumstances for months – a law so visciousy authoritarian it would be rejected as a Hollywood script for being too farfetched.
That law had just been extended FIVE WEEKS.
And Sir Keir wanted it retained for longer.
It will take me a long time to forgive that, if I ever will.
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1437794784014393360
And those like PB who love the data, the dashboard plus ONS, dumps all of it for us saddos to look at.
Oh my days.
I have never heard of her!
Fortunately now Matt Hancock's gone the government is now rather better at resisting pressure like this.
I am quite sure that in 1942 there were people asking "What war?".
Looks like we won't be getting our staff back from ICU for a while. 🙄
I am now willing to entertain "run out of people to infect" as a hypothesis. The ONS antibody survey will be fascinating reading.
I watched the scientist bit of the conference and he was banging on about how we're going into winter with more infections and more people in hospital etc... I don't understand why we're still making comparisons to last December, especially wrt hospitalisation and death where we know the vaccine programme has significantly reduced the individual and national risks to being almost negligible.
I also saw the first question from the public, what an eyeroll.
Wow.
David Herdson wins the internet today.
Of all the people to complain about enhanced body parts
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1437796354957393923
OK, it has changed hands in recent years, but Battersea (like most of London) is trending Labour.
Demographics will turn her majority into > 10k by 2024.
So, it is a completely implausible reason.
I can't think of anything else it could be, schools are open and have been for almost two weeks, nightclubs are open and under 20s are out every weekend before the start of uni. I saw big groups of them out at the weekend, no social distancing and packed into hot and probably very sweaty bars/clubs. If that's not a super-spreader event then I don't know what is and still cases are falling.
If this continues for the next couple of weeks, then it'll look like we've managed to break the back of Delta.
We get it in our organic veg box some weeks.
Maybe you can get it at Lidl and Aldi too?
The comparisons you are seeing are for countries that are already vaccinating down to 12.
Steamed it is great; even better, flash fry with garlic and chili and a splash of water (it dehydrates very quickly)
MMMMMM
Ultimately if they ever want to go on holiday they will need to get vaccinated, eventually when programmes across Europe finish countries will put up a hard vaccine wall and we should too. That will motivate a lot of people to get it.
https://groceries.aldi.co.uk/en-GB/p-specially-selected-cavolo-nero-200g/4088600017433
I also hate to say it, but Macron's gamble may have paid off. The French are getting their vaccinations, the third wave is in retreat there, and the demonstrations are dying down.
(*genuinely sorry, couldn't resist!)
What stuck out to me a few weeks ago was the ONS report showing that new infections are occurring in 80% unvaccinated or previously uninfected people, 12% in single jabbed and 8% in double jabbed. That means the crossover for new infections with immune people is still very low. The big summer wave of infections was definitely the correct decision, lots of us said it at the time, better to have the unvaccinated by choice get it in the summer than in the winter.
There were many difficult decisions to get right. The ones they got wrong were when to lockdown (at least a week too late) and when to close international travel or implement strict quarantines for it. Although these steps seem logical and obvious now, at the time they were unprecedented steps that no freedom loving person wants to embrace.
It just takes one infected young person to go into a hospital or old peoples' home, and there is carnage. Genuinely segmenting the population is a non-trivial problem.
Only one country managed it that I can think of. And that's Denmark. And they achieved it via (a) very few intergenerational households, (b) massive testing of people who might come into contact with oldies, (c) a vaccination programme that emphasised people who came into contact with lots of other people, and (d) everybody being forced to carry an app around that showed the time and results of their last test.
for the Canadian election best price for Liberal Party most seats is 1/3.
is it possible for both of these to lose?
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
Not that they will get any credit nor that iSAGE-ians will admit they were wrong, just like vaccine dosage gap.