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The latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Doesn't seem very tantrummy to me. "Amicable divorce", "best for both", sounds pretty lucid. But it's fine to change your mind.

    This means you aren't pure any more, but there's still a home for you in the Conservative Party.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
    But you know that is not going to happen from any political party
  • Options
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
    UC has been reduced by around 10% in the last few years.

    That needs to be restored too.
    Instead of restoring it, if you just deal with the effective real tax rate then anyone working would be better off - and anyone not working would be really incentivised to work. Win/win.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
    But you know that is not going to happen from any political party
    I won't stop banging on about it and hopefully eventually it does get picked up by one party and dealt with.

    Why should we have a real tax rate of 75%? How is that appropriate, fair or reasonable? How is it economic either as there'll be serious Laffer consequences from taxing at 75%.
  • Options
    They're doomed I tell ye! Doomed!

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom? (13 Sept):

    Boris Johnson: 44% (+2)
    Keir Starmer: 27% (-3)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437463725913554953?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    Personally I would keep the UC uplift, at least for a few months after furlough ends in case unemployment goes up.

    However I also recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books
    If you recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books then do you recognise that redistributing money to pay for people's inheritance should not be a top priority?

    Or is balancing the books on the backs of the poor better than having people pay for their own care using their own savings?
    There is no contradiction. The Chancellor raised NI and social care still does not come free, £86,000 still has to be provided from potential inheritances for care costs and more if you need residential accommodation for food and boarding costs.

    All the proposals mean is that inheritances are not wiped out to pay for care, which is correct.

    I also said I would support an extension of UC, of course the poorest ie almost all of those earning under £10,000, are exempt from NI anyway
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    I think it is not understood and it is wrong

    However, I do not see any political party addressing it nor highlighting it

    Indeed apart from your comments on this subject I have not heard or read about it from anyone previously
    The issue has been known and disucssed for quite some time - this quite recent

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/22/labour-to-pledge-shake-up-of-universal-credit-as-part-of-wider-new-deal

    But here is an older example

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/universal-credit-and-the-big-labour-market-questions-the-uk-needs-to-consider/
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
    But you know that is not going to happen from any political party
    I won't stop banging on about it and hopefully eventually it does get picked up by one party and dealt with.

    Why should we have a real tax rate of 75%? How is that appropriate, fair or reasonable? How is it economic either as there'll be serious Laffer consequences from taxing at 75%.
    Can you tell me where the peak is on the applicable Laffer curve?
  • Options

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.

    Midget sub HMS Kinabalu edges closer to the ignorant, lumbering target. But will she succumb to adverse weather rather than enemy action? Exciting.
  • Options
    Doomed....contd.

    If a General Election were to take place within the next six months, what do Britons think would be the most likely outcome?

    Conservative majority: 36%
    Labour majority: 20%
    Conservative-led minority: 16%
    Labour-led minority: 6%
    Don't know: 21%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437476708765028354?s=20
  • Options

    They're doomed I tell ye! Doomed!

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom? (13 Sept):

    Boris Johnson: 44% (+2)
    Keir Starmer: 27% (-3)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437463725913554953?s=20

    I do actually find that quite remarkable after all the criticism of Boris since his announcement
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    I think it is not understood and it is wrong

    However, I do not see any political party addressing it nor highlighting it

    Indeed apart from your comments on this subject I have not heard or read about it from anyone previously
    The issue has been known and disucssed for quite some time - this quite recent

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/22/labour-to-pledge-shake-up-of-universal-credit-as-part-of-wider-new-deal

    But here is an older example

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/universal-credit-and-the-big-labour-market-questions-the-uk-needs-to-consider/
    In that case it shows how anonymous labour are on this subject
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    kinabalu said:

    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.

    Heightist
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.

    Midget sub HMS Kinabalu edges closer to the ignorant, lumbering target. But will she succumb to adverse weather rather than enemy action? Exciting.
    That is the question, if I understand you correctly. I remain convinced that Johnson will leave number 10 only when beaten in a GE. So let's all of sound mind and good character hope that this is the next one.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431
    kinabalu said:

    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.

    I do.

    I followed your lead at high 7s. Thank you :smile: Last I saw though he was still around 5? (smarkets).
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
  • Options
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited September 2021
    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    The polls close in Norway in less than 40 minutes.

    Still more than two and a half years before they close in the UK. One or two getting a bit excited about a couple of polls.

    At this stage, all we are seeing is the start of a potentially very long road. Some of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are not so much questioning their decision then as wanting to give the Government a kick now.

    As someone once said, you can't please all of the people all of the time. Inevitably, Governments do things which annoy/irritate some or more of their supporters (they may hope to attract new supporters as a counter) and that reflects in a short to medium terms desire to "kick" the Government and that's why God created local council and parliamentary by-elections and mid-term local elections.

    The manifestation of this discontent is and will be seen in such contests and you may think the Government is rocked back on its heels like a prize fighter but the reality is never that simple. Rather like the boxer forced briefly to cover while the opponent throws a range of punches, the Government soaks up the punishment because it knows many of those who protest now will return to the fold when it matters (i.e. at the next General Election).

    The move to "other" parties is symptomatic of medium term disillusionment than long -term realignment. When the move of voters is direct from the governing party to the principal opposition party is when it gets serious.

    Of course, it helps Labour to see Conservative votes peel off to the LDs, Greens or even abstentions but that doesn't mean (and especially given Starmer's position in terms of Commons seats) a clear road to Government.

    I've often said it's not the big things which affect Governments such as global pandemics but the small things and the cumulation of minor errors enforced gaffes and tactical blunders which draws away support over time. The other side is governing parties which have been in power a long time begin to develop a sense of entitlement to which, in my experience, the electorate and the democratic process don't take kindly.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
  • Options
    Betfair will be down tomorrow morning for planned maintenance. Take note if you are planning to adjust your portfolio or check your winnings on the election in Norway.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    That would cost way more than just paying keeping the taper
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,959

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    There are lots of problems here, but the fundamental one is that we have three systems that all work completely separately:

    - tax (NI)
    - tax (income)
    - benefits

    There should be a single integrated tax and benefits system, so that we can ensure that marginal tax rates go from bugger all (we really want to encourage work) to a maximum of maybe 45% for people on the highest incomes.

    Marginal tax rates should only ever move up, and ideally in relatively small increments. There shouldn't be these bizarre points (like with removal of your tax free allowance) where it leaps to 60+%, before dropping to 40%, and then rising again.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    That would cost way more than just paying keeping the taper
    Cost who?, the government or the worker?

    The worker is going to lose £87 per month UC anyway. This would help recupe some of it and help the lack of workers issue.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718

    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer

    I understand that the reason they chose NI rather than income tax is to ensure consistency across the union. If true then another unintended consequence of devolution?
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,386
    edited September 2021
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    But you are reducing the value of the benefit with nothing in return, with the £87 reduction. It's a double whammy.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    But you are reducing the value of the benefit with nothing in return, with the £87 reduction. It's a double whammy.
    Those are two separate things. I thought we were talking about the benefits taper?
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer

    I understand that the reason they chose NI rather than income tax is to ensure consistency across the union. If true then another unintended consequence of devolution?
    I thought the devolved governments only had the power to vary the rate or allowances from the UK starting point.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    But you are reducing the value of the benefit with nothing in return, with the £87 reduction. It's a double whammy.
    Those are two separate things. I thought we were talking about the benefits taper?
    I don't know how we could consider separate things without impacting others.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,525
    edited September 2021
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The polls close in Norway in less than 40 minutes.

    Still more than two and a half years before they close in the UK. One or two getting a bit excited about a couple of polls.

    At this stage, all we are seeing is the start of a potentially very long road. Some of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are not so much questioning their decision then as wanting to give the Government a kick now.

    As someone once said, you can't please all of the people all of the time. Inevitably, Governments do things which annoy/irritate some or more of their supporters (they may hope to attract new supporters as a counter) and that reflects in a short to medium terms desire to "kick" the Government and that's why God created local council and parliamentary by-elections and mid-term local elections.

    The manifestation of this discontent is and will be seen in such contests and you may think the Government is rocked back on its heels like a prize fighter but the reality is never that simple. Rather like the boxer forced briefly to cover while the opponent throws a range of punches, the Government soaks up the punishment because it knows many of those who protest now will return to the fold when it matters (i.e. at the next General Election).

    The move to "other" parties is symptomatic of medium term disillusionment than long -term realignment. When the move of voters is direct from the governing party to the principal opposition party is when it gets serious.

    Of course, it helps Labour to see Conservative votes peel off to the LDs, Greens or even abstentions but that doesn't mean (and especially given Starmer's position in terms of Commons seats) a clear road to Government.

    I've often said it's not the big things which affect Governments such as global pandemics but the small things and the cumulation of minor errors enforced gaffes and tactical blunders which draws away support over time. The other side is governing parties which have been in power a long time begin to develop a sense of entitlement to which, in my experience, the electorate and the democratic process don't take kindly.

    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

  • Options
    Norwegian result in 8 minutes
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,916

    The latest prediction is Con majority of 4 - and I predict that is going down down down

    Their main prediction is based on the average of the latest polls, not the last one taken, keep up
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    But you are reducing the value of the benefit with nothing in return, with the £87 reduction. It's a double whammy.
    Those are two separate things. I thought we were talking about the benefits taper?
    I don't know how we could consider separate things without impacting others.
    You are suggesting the taper should be abolished because the uplift is ending, but they aren't really connected.

    The whole point of the taper is to stop people facing a cliff-edge where they were earning (say) £999.99 a month and receive the full benefit, but if they were earning £1000 a month they would receive nothing.
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer

    I understand that the reason they chose NI rather than income tax is to ensure consistency across the union. If true then another unintended consequence of devolution?
    Thanks
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    But you are reducing the value of the benefit with nothing in return, with the £87 reduction. It's a double whammy.
    Those are two separate things. I thought we were talking about the benefits taper?
    I don't know how we could consider separate things without impacting others.
    You are suggesting the taper should be abolished because the uplift is ending, but they aren't really connected.

    The whole point of the taper is to stop people facing a cliff-edge where they were earning (say) £999.99 a month and receive the full benefit, but if they were earning £1000 a month they would receive nothing.
    One of the best ways to make this go away is to make benefits taxable, that 2ay you're not replacing non-taxable income with taxable income.
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    The Red Wall is lost if they don't u-turn on this imho.
  • Options
    isam said:

    The latest prediction is Con majority of 4 - and I predict that is going down down down

    Their main prediction is based on the average of the latest polls, not the last one taken, keep up
    The last one taken is from a firm without a polling record and without a client.
  • Options
    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The polls close in Norway in less than 40 minutes.

    Still more than two and a half years before they close in the UK. One or two getting a bit excited about a couple of polls.

    At this stage, all we are seeing is the start of a potentially very long road. Some of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are not so much questioning their decision then as wanting to give the Government a kick now.

    As someone once said, you can't please all of the people all of the time. Inevitably, Governments do things which annoy/irritate some or more of their supporters (they may hope to attract new supporters as a counter) and that reflects in a short to medium terms desire to "kick" the Government and that's why God created local council and parliamentary by-elections and mid-term local elections.

    The manifestation of this discontent is and will be seen in such contests and you may think the Government is rocked back on its heels like a prize fighter but the reality is never that simple. Rather like the boxer forced briefly to cover while the opponent throws a range of punches, the Government soaks up the punishment because it knows many of those who protest now will return to the fold when it matters (i.e. at the next General Election).

    The move to "other" parties is symptomatic of medium term disillusionment than long -term realignment. When the move of voters is direct from the governing party to the principal opposition party is when it gets serious.

    Of course, it helps Labour to see Conservative votes peel off to the LDs, Greens or even abstentions but that doesn't mean (and especially given Starmer's position in terms of Commons seats) a clear road to Government.

    I've often said it's not the big things which affect Governments such as global pandemics but the small things and the cumulation of minor errors enforced gaffes and tactical blunders which draws away support over time. The other side is governing parties which have been in power a long time begin to develop a sense of entitlement to which, in my experience, the electorate and the democratic process don't take kindly.

    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    You mean this

    https://order-order.com/2021/09/13/rayner-fails-eight-times-to-detail-labours-alternative-social-care-funding-plans/
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    Stocky said:

    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer

    I understand that the reason they chose NI rather than income tax is to ensure consistency across the union. If true then another unintended consequence of devolution?
    That pretext doesn’t hold water for five seconds. Does anyone honestly think Sturgeon would have failed to pass on a hike in income tax sold as being to pay for the NHS and social care?

    Admittedly, it is plain bloody daft that it’s income tax not VAT that can be varied. But it’s pretty ridiculous of the government to pretend this is about anything other than trying to sweeten their core vote.
  • Options
    Norway:

    Red 103
    Blue 65

    51.5% counted

    Workers Party heading for victory
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    Stocky said:

    Boris has introduced a 1.25% hypothecated tax from 2023 to be shown on all pay slips for the NHS and social care

    I would just pose the question that many people like the idea of a hypothecated tax, so surely it can only be arranged through NI or income tax

    How could any other tax be defined as hypothecated

    I am not an expert so I just put this up for debate by those who may know the answer

    I understand that the reason they chose NI rather than income tax is to ensure consistency across the union. If true then another unintended consequence of devolution?
    Thanks
    I’m sure they could’ve gamed the devolution aspect and made a hypothecated tax on unearned as well earned income and dared Nicola to kick up a fuss over it.

    But instead they chose to screw working people rather than do the right thing and have the confrontation with retirees and Scottish nationalists. Turns out Sunak is spineless. I begin to reach the point with him that I did with Starmer a year ago: “Next”.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,149
    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    ...but, but, PB Tories want detailed policies and now!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    The Red Wall is lost if they don't u-turn on this imho.
    They could have done something like kept half of it, or kept all of it and been a bit more stingy in future years to claw some of it back. Another idea would be to keep it only for current claimants, but that's probably a bit too unfair.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    ...but, but, PB Tories want detailed policies and now!
    Of course, how else are we going to write the 2024 Tory manifesto?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    ...but, but, PB Tories want detailed policies and now!
    Of course, how else are we going to write the 2024 Tory manifesto?
    Bazinga!
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    edited September 2021
    The first Norwegian exit poll:

    Changes from 2017:

    Labour: 26.5% (-0.9)
    Conservative: 18.7% (-6.4)
    Centre: 14.7% (+4.4)
    Progress: 11.5% (-3.7)
    Socialist Left: 7.6% (+1.6)
    Red Party: 5.0% (+2.6)
    Greens: 4.1% (+0.9)
    Christian People's Party: 3.9% (-0.2)
    Liberal: 3.5% (-0.9)

    First calculations have the Red centre-left on 53.8% (+7.7) and the Blue centre-right bloc on 37.6% (-11.2) so that's a swing approaching 9.5% from centre-right to centre-left so a very good night for Labour.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,149
    edited September 2021
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    ...but, but, PB Tories want detailed policies and now!
    Of course, how else are we going to write the 2024 Tory manifesto?
    Nah, Labour's policies will be far too fiscally conservative for Boris Johnson.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    Yeah, I agree that would be a very good alternative, and it would probably (maybe im woefully naive) remove a lot of the bureaucracy. But they were proposing simply removing the taper without any other changes, which would be a bit crazy.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,892
    edited September 2021
    Interrupting holiday for election news

    Exit poll in from Norway.

    NRK projecting that Norwegian Labour Party will win the election, displacing an 8 year Conservative govt.

    That’s despite Norwegian Labour going backwards (worst performance since 2001 and before that 1924) https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1437493226517237770/photo/1

    Conservatives significantly down. As is the far right Progress Party. The Liberal Party and Christian Democrats (both minor parties in the governing coalition) punished too. They might not even get over 4% threshold. V bad night for the right overall.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    Universal Basic Income (UBI) gets round the problem. There is no disincentive to work as don't lose any UBI.
  • Options
    Norway:

    Red 101
    Blue 67

    53.6% counted

    Workers Party heading for victory
  • Options
    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    :+1:

    Starmer needs to say something that will get people to listen to Labour again for a moment or two.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,386
    edited September 2021

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    I totally agree, Philip.

    As a pensioner I am quite happy to pay a combined tax/NI/whatever rate of deduction to cover the lot. I suspect the tax allowance would decrease a lot though.
  • Options

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    It’s official: I have resigned as Chairman and Lead Presenter of GB News.
  • Options
    R
    4,9 %
    +2,5

    SV
    7,7 %
    +1,6

    Ap
    25,5 %
    –1,8

    Sp
    14,1 %
    +3,9

    MDG
    4,1 %
    +0,9

    KrF
    4,2 %
    0,0

    V
    3,7 %
    –0,7

    H
    19,6 %
    –5,5

    Frp
    12,0 %
    –3,2

    Andre
    4,1 %
    +2,4
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,149


    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    It’s official: I have resigned as Chairman and Lead Presenter of GB News.

    Cancelled!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    edited September 2021

    Norway:

    Red 103
    Blue 65

    51.5% counted

    Workers Party heading for victory

    Yes, remarkable leftward swing - Labour (=workers' party) actually marginally down, but the green centrists, the socialist left and the classic greens all up and the explicitly communist reds up most of all . Two centre-right parties look as though they'll be under a 4% level for top-up list seats, and the conservatives and anti-immigration freedom party both losing heavily. Anders Breivik, the guy who murdered a lot of social democrat kids in a holiday camp "to try to wipe out the next generation of socialists" will be so pissed off...

    Not quite plain sailing, though, as Labour wants to ally with the centrist green and the socialist left, and the two parties don't get on. But there's no credible alternative.

    Edit: new update shows the centrist greens doing best, the reds now a bit less, but the same overall picture.
  • Options
    Martin Kulldorff
    @MartinKulldorff
    ·
    1h To be a public health scientist during this pandemic is like living in a Kafka novel.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    Yeah, I agree that would be a very good alternative, and it would probably (maybe im woefully naive) remove a lot of the bureaucracy. But they were proposing simply removing the taper without any other changes, which would be a bit crazy.
    If you were to remove the taper it would be a UBI and the policy would be implemented.

    Of course the immediate gainers from that are people in work, especially those in middle incomes, not the people out of work or insanely rich. The poorest don't actually gain a penny from a UBI system since they're already getting the benefits, instead what they gain is the potential to earn more due to removing punitive tax rates.

    What you might call "the squeezed middle" get the biggest immediate boost from universality.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.

    I do.

    I followed your lead at high 7s. Thank you :smile: Last I saw though he was still around 5? (smarkets).
    Yes, that "4 handle" is 4.8. Bit of spin there from me. 🙂
  • Options

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    I totally agree, Philip.

    As a pensioner I am quite happy to pay a combined tax/NI/whatever rate of deduction to cover the lot. I suspect the tax allowance would decrease a lot though.
    The tax allowance could disappear completely if this is implemented, there'd be no point in the tax allowance anymore.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:


    There is a natural remorseless grinding process by which government has to have policy and practice on every single issue simultaneously - simply by being the government - while the opposition can get away with addressing one issue at a time.

    The current Labour opposition are experimenting with taking it to extremes - having not a single clear distinct implementable affirmative non-Tory policy on any salient subject. Could the public find this a little wearing in time?

    Like the agony of listening to Angela Rayner on R4 Today this morning....every day....for ever?

    If I were Labour, I wouldn't worry about a Today interview which will be forgotten by tomorrow.

    The Party Conference is going to be the opportunity to continue the process of re-invention and renewal. At this stage, they should be less interested in specifics than getting people to listen to the general direction of Labour policy.
    ...but, but, PB Tories want detailed policies and now!
    Which they'd tear apart like hounds with a rag doll!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    Yeah, I agree that would be a very good alternative, and it would probably (maybe im woefully naive) remove a lot of the bureaucracy. But they were proposing simply removing the taper without any other changes, which would be a bit crazy.
    If you were to remove the taper it would be a UBI and the policy would be implemented.

    Of course the immediate gainers from that are people in work, especially those in middle incomes, not the people out of work or insanely rich. The poorest don't actually gain a penny from a UBI system since they're already getting the benefits, instead what they gain is the potential to earn more due to removing punitive tax rates.

    What you might call "the squeezed middle" get the biggest immediate boost from universality.
    If you removed the taper without any other changes there would either be a cliff-edge where you'd go from full to no benefits, or you'd be in the situation where everyone could claim it, which would be a bit expensive. For the change to be affordable and effective, you'd have to reform all of the tax and benefits system as you described in your earlier post.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    Unless you are a professional politician why the fuck do you have that?
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    edited September 2021
    The latest Redfield poll is almost spot on the EMA with a 4.5% lead for the Tories. This leaves them 5 short of an absolute majority.

    If half the Green vote goes to Labour then the Tories are 22 short of an absolute majority and there would be a minority Labour government with C&S from SNP and LD.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2021
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    They could remove the taper in return for the loss of the £87 per month entitlement. This could encourage people to work more hours to retain more of their money from the employer.
    The taper has to be there, surely? I'm not sure how else you'd remove the benefit.
    I thought the taper was their to discourage people working more than their entitlement. In effect, the more money you earn above the entitlement, the more is then deducted from your payment, at the rate of 63p per pound extra. If you removed the taper, then that will offset some of the £87 reduction. It will also encourage people to work more hours when available, like in the present climate!
    But if you remove the taper they would never stop getting the benefit, no matter how much they earned. The benefit has to be withdrawn at some level. The whole point of the taper is for that to be smooth, and not a cliff-edge.
    Why does it have to be removed? Milton Friedman (no far left winger) proposed the notion of a "Negative Income Tax". In modern language you could call it a Universal Basic Income.

    Basically you merge benefits, tax and NI altogether into a single scheme. Instead of at the moment having a tax-free allowance when you start work, and then all sorts of complicated deductions and benefits, instead you have a simple tax rate that may go up as you go through levels but there's no complications. You could eradicate most of our tax code and people could understand their position without calculators.

    Once you've done that you have no means tested benefits whatsoever. No housing allowance or anything else.
    Yeah, I agree that would be a very good alternative, and it would probably (maybe im woefully naive) remove a lot of the bureaucracy. But they were proposing simply removing the taper without any other changes, which would be a bit crazy.
    If you were to remove the taper it would be a UBI and the policy would be implemented.

    Of course the immediate gainers from that are people in work, especially those in middle incomes, not the people out of work or insanely rich. The poorest don't actually gain a penny from a UBI system since they're already getting the benefits, instead what they gain is the potential to earn more due to removing punitive tax rates.

    What you might call "the squeezed middle" get the biggest immediate boost from universality.
    If you removed the taper without any other changes there would either be a cliff-edge where you'd go from full to no benefits, or you'd be in the situation where everyone could claim it, which would be a bit expensive. For the change to be affordable and effective, you'd have to reform all of the tax and benefits system as you described in your earlier post.
    Yes the entire point of universality is everyone can claim it. Indeed you shouldn't even need to claim it, it should be relatively automatic, once the system is up and running properly.

    You don't have to manually claim your tax-free allowance today, its just a part of the tax code. The negative tax proposal is to make it a part of the tax code and clean up the code.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    It’s not ignorant. The minimum wage is £8.91 so 2 hours work is just under £18 (close enough).

    Of course the reality on the ground is something different - hence out of touch is a fair complaint - but it is accurate
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850


    Yes, remarkable leftward swing - Labour (=workers' party) actually marginally down, but the green centrists, the socialist left and the classic greens all up and the explicitly communist reds up most of all . Two centre-right parties look as though they'll be under a 4% level for top-up list seats, and the conservatives and anti-immigration freedom party both losing heavily. Anders Breivik, the guy who murdered a lot of social democrat kids in a holiday camp "to try to wipe out the next generation of socialists" will be so pissed off...

    Not quite plain sailing, though, as Labour wants to ally with the centrist green and the socialist left, and the two parties don't get on. But there's no credible alternative.

    Edit: new update shows the centrist greens doing best, the reds now a bit less, but the same overall picture.

    It looks as though Labour, Centre and the Socialist Left could have a majority of seats between them - 86 - which I suspect would suit the Labour leader just fine.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Barnesian said:

    The latest Redfield poll is almost spot on the EMA with a 4.5% lead for the Tories. This leaves them 5 short of an absolute majority.

    If half the Green vote goes to Labour then the Tories are 22 short of an absolute majority and there would be a minority Labour government with C&S from SNP and LD.

    I refer your awful story telling to the more sensible reply I gave at 5.55.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965
    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    Universal Basic Income (UBI) gets round the problem. There is no disincentive to work as don't lose any UBI.
    Yet house rents are so high that you would need to have a UBI of £20,000+ in London and other places - it just isn't possible
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    So just to confirm:

    - no more taxes
    - More spending on stuff you like
    - Reduce the deficit


    How do you propose to achieve that?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965
    Charles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    It’s not ignorant. The minimum wage is £8.91 so 2 hours work is just under £18 (close enough).

    Of course the reality on the ground is something different - hence out of touch is a fair complaint - but it is accurate
    It is ignorance - the idea that anyone of universal credit can receive money untaxed can only come from someone who has done zero research.

    The only way it would occur is if the money was cash in hand and thag opens different issues for a Government minister
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Charles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    It’s not ignorant. The minimum wage is £8.91 so 2 hours work is just under £18 (close enough).

    Of course the reality on the ground is something different - hence out of touch is a fair complaint - but it is accurate
    No, it is ignorant because income for people on UC is tapered, they keep just 40-50% of the additional gross from two hours at minimum wage. A £20 weekly cut for a minimum wage worker would need somewhere between 3.5 and 5 of additional hours to cover, assuming that those hours are being offered.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    edited September 2021
    Charles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    So just to confirm:

    - no more taxes
    - More spending on stuff you like
    - Reduce the deficit


    How do you propose to achieve that?
    I just want fairness and it is unfair to remove the uplift at this time

    CGT or IHT or both should rise
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Exactly. When I briefly tried the benefits system after losing my seat I found a marginal tax rate of effectively 80% on the casual earnings I reported. I concludede that I was either a mug for taking the casual work at all or a mug for reporting it. I consequently have some sympathy for people at the bottom who do odd jobs and don't report them - yes, they're benefit fraudsters, but at a 75-80% tax rate it's hard to blame them.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    So just to confirm:

    - no more taxes
    - More spending on stuff you like
    - Reduce the deficit


    How do you propose to achieve that?
    - Not spend money on new unnecessary benefits like paying to cover people's inheritance until first priorities have been resolved.
    - Laffer Curve.

    75% real tax rates discourage work, meaning the government faces higher costs and generates lower taxes. Plus there's knock on costs as if someone has more money in their wallet (due to working more and lowest taxes) then they'll spend more which the government will tax, and will generate new economic activity, which the government will tax.
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    MaxPB said:

    Well I've just had some pretty big news, both my wife and I have had our request to work from Zurich permanently approved by our respective companies. She's going to stay employed by the UK parent company for a while and I'll switch over to the local Switzerland subsidiary. We have to wait until October 2022 to go as her company wants to staff up it's Swiss AML division before they send her there but it looks like this is a done deal as we both have agreements in principle in writing.

    It's been coming for a while, the worst bit will be telling my sister and parents that we're going there. The second worst bit is telling my mother in law that we're within an hour's train journey from her house.

    Many congratulations and moving to Switzerland must be very exciting
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Exactly. When I briefly tried the benefits system after losing my seat I found a marginal tax rate of effectively 80% on the casual earnings I reported. I concludede that I was either a mug for taking the casual work at all or a mug for reporting it. I consequently have some sympathy for people at the bottom who do odd jobs and don't report them - yes, they're benefit fraudsters, but at a 75-80% tax rate it's hard to blame them.
    A lot of that is down to the Byzantine in work benefits system created by Gordon Brown. The Tories haven't fixed it and now a couple of million people will suffer for their incompetence.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    gealbhan said:

    Barnesian said:

    The latest Redfield poll is almost spot on the EMA with a 4.5% lead for the Tories. This leaves them 5 short of an absolute majority.

    If half the Green vote goes to Labour then the Tories are 22 short of an absolute majority and there would be a minority Labour government with C&S from SNP and LD.

    I refer your awful story telling to the more sensible reply I gave at 5.55.
    Your reply is simply your story. Iron floor for the Tories etc. Whatever keeps you happy.

    The Tories averaged 43% in May, 41% two months ago and 39% now.
    Their implied overall majority has dropped from +50 to -5.
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    Michael Gove is spot on about Prince Charles.

    Michael Gove made crude sexual comments, joked about paedophilia within top levels of government, and used a racist slur in a series of remarks in his twenties, The Independent can reveal.

    The Cabinet Office minister also described Prince Charles as a “dull, wet, drippy adulterer” in speeches at the Cambridge Union while he was a student at Oxford, and after his graduation while working as a journalist.

    In apparent attempts at humour, Mr Gove referred to people living in countries colonised by the British as “fuzzy-wuzzies”, accused the late former Tory minister Sir Leon Brittan of being a paedophile, and made a string of sexual jokes at the expense of Conservative minister Lucy Frazer.

    The chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster, who has been tipped for the position of either foreign secretary or home secretary in a potential reshuffle, also described Margaret Thatcher’s policies as a “new empire” where “the happy south stamps over the cruel, dirty, toothless face of the northerner”, and said that gay people “thrive primarily upon short-term relations”.

    Mr Gove made the comments – which were met at the time by cheers, stunned laughter, and shouts of “shame” – at three evening debates at the Cambridge Union in February 1993, December 1993 and during the winter of 1987, recordings of which came to light this week.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-sexist-racist-speech-b1918058.html
  • Options

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    “Are there no prisons? And union workhouses?”
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    isamisam Posts: 40,916
    edited September 2021

    isam said:

    The latest prediction is Con majority of 4 - and I predict that is going down down down

    Their main prediction is based on the average of the latest polls, not the last one taken, keep up
    The last one taken is from a firm without a polling record and without a client.
    ...
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    Norway:

    Red 103
    Blue 65

    51.5% counted

    Workers Party heading for victory

    Yes, remarkable leftward swing - Labour (=workers' party) actually marginally down, but the green centrists, the socialist left and the classic greens all up and the explicitly communist reds up most of all . Two centre-right parties look as though they'll be under a 4% level for top-up list seats, and the conservatives and anti-immigration freedom party both losing heavily. Anders Breivik, the guy who murdered a lot of social democrat kids in a holiday camp "to try to wipe out the next generation of socialists" will be so pissed off...

    Not quite plain sailing, though, as Labour wants to ally with the centrist green and the socialist left, and the two parties don't get on. But there's no credible alternative.

    Edit: new update shows the centrist greens doing best, the reds now a bit less, but the same overall picture.
    Very similar to Sweden, where the ex-Communists and green centrists are part of same “bloc” but can’t stand each other.
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    MaxPB said:

    Well I've just had some pretty big news, both my wife and I have had our request to work from Zurich permanently approved by our respective companies. She's going to stay employed by the UK parent company for a while and I'll switch over to the local Switzerland subsidiary. We have to wait until October 2022 to go as her company wants to staff up it's Swiss AML division before they send her there but it looks like this is a done deal as we both have agreements in principle in writing.

    It's been coming for a while, the worst bit will be telling my sister and parents that we're going there. The second worst bit is telling my mother in law that we're within an hour's train journey from her house.

    Congrats.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Well I've just had some pretty big news, both my wife and I have had our request to work from Zurich permanently approved by our respective companies. She's going to stay employed by the UK parent company for a while and I'll switch over to the local Switzerland subsidiary. We have to wait until October 2022 to go as her company wants to staff up it's Swiss AML division before they send her there but it looks like this is a done deal as we both have agreements in principle in writing.

    It's been coming for a while, the worst bit will be telling my sister and parents that we're going there. The second worst bit is telling my mother in law that we're within an hour's train journey from her house.

    Many congratulations and moving to Switzerland must be very exciting
    Thanks Big_G, I'm not sure exciting is the correct word for it, more like relief. We put the request in way back in March and it's taken a long time to convince my company to go ahead with it. I think the delay to October 2022 has helped convince them.
  • Options
    eek said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    Universal Basic Income (UBI) gets round the problem. There is no disincentive to work as don't lose any UBI.
    Yet house rents are so high that you would need to have a UBI of £20,000+ in London and other places - it just isn't possible
    That's assuming the person does zero work whatsoever and lives on their own does it not?
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    Charles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    So just to confirm:

    - no more taxes
    - More spending on stuff you like
    - Reduce the deficit


    How do you propose to achieve that?
    - Not spend money on new unnecessary benefits like paying to cover people's inheritance until first priorities have been resolved.
    - Laffer Curve.

    75% real tax rates discourage work, meaning the government faces higher costs and generates lower taxes. Plus there's knock on costs as if someone has more money in their wallet (due to working more and lowest taxes) then they'll spend more which the government will tax, and will generate new economic activity, which the government will tax.
    In a large number of pensioners care the £86, 000 will cover the cost of their care and will not require any contribution from HMG

    Furthermore it opens the way for sensible insurance policies for pensioners care

    And the vast majority of this tax is going to the NHS anyway
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,965

    eek said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    Not sure how the Income tax rate could be 75%. Could you explain?
    "According to Labour, the current system means that a single parent working 30 hours a week on the national living wage loses £573 a month of their universal credit entitlement – equivalent to a marginal tax rate of 75%. It contrasts this with the 47% marginal tax rate faced by people earning over £150,000 a year, such as the prime minister." In that Graun piece I posted just a moment ago.
    OIC, you are referring to marginal tax rate.

    Not sure how you deal with that. Not have a UC taper? Abolish UC? Increase the Tax allowance to cover it?
    You can't - which is why everyone tries to avoid talking about the issue
    Universal Basic Income (UBI) gets round the problem. There is no disincentive to work as don't lose any UBI.
    Yet house rents are so high that you would need to have a UBI of £20,000+ in London and other places - it just isn't possible
    That's assuming the person does zero work whatsoever and lives on their own does it not?
    That is a scenario UBI has to cover - the lone adult between jobs
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    The Norwegian numbers seem to be settling at around 100 for the "non-Blue" parties and 68 for the "Blue" parties.

    The Greens, Christian People's Party and Liberals are all close to the 4% threshold.

    The Liberals now look likely to get over but the other two may not - it's all in the balance.

    The projected Labour-Centre-Socialist Left coalition now has a projected 88-89 seats in the Storting, a majority,
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Well I've just had some pretty big news, both my wife and I have had our request to work from Zurich permanently approved by our respective companies. She's going to stay employed by the UK parent company for a while and I'll switch over to the local Switzerland subsidiary. We have to wait until October 2022 to go as her company wants to staff up it's Swiss AML division before they send her there but it looks like this is a done deal as we both have agreements in principle in writing.

    It's been coming for a while, the worst bit will be telling my sister and parents that we're going there. The second worst bit is telling my mother in law that we're within an hour's train journey from her house.

    Congrats.
    Cheers, still have to do 2 weeks every quarter from London but they're going to put me up in a nice hotel. We're going to try and time it so my London working time coincides with my wife's mandatory London working time at least a few times a year and we've negotiated Christmas and New Year in our respective London offices.
This discussion has been closed.