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The latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting – politicalbetting.com
As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question.
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Conservative majority, I have laid it
The only real question is whether it will be Sturgeon and Blackford or Sir Jeffrey Donaldson who will be Kingmakers
However I think these polls point to little seat movement at the next election when you factor in what isn’t happening mid term and swingback from here probably late in the parliament. So we can have a good idea what is likely to happen.
These are disastrous polls for Labour. In mid term, in the week of the biggest tax take budget in peace time, and election guarantees broken, Labour can only by a fraction drag Tories below 40%?
Ignore the gap between parties. Ignore what the seat engines saying - there’s a huge polling story here based around the Tories comfortably in or barely out the forties and the reason why.
Let’s deal in facts. No matter what is thrown at this government, greatest military surrender in peacetime, greatest tax take in peacetime, running away from Covid enquiry etc, this government has an iron floor in its polling numbers and Labour a glass ceiling.
I propose the reason for this is disaster for Labour is Red brexiteers, swallowed whole by Boris as he swallowed all UKIP vote, are just not unwinding back to Labour. Whether it’s politics, or political betting that Red Brex bloc happy to tell the world they are Tory voters now is a huge thing, they are not even saying don’t no at this stage.
In 2017 Labour was 25 points behind, now they are about 5 behind (?). Corbyn's ratings were in the gutter and historically terrible, Starmer's are now just bad.
2017 repeat would produce a Labour minority, almost certainly.
Britain Elects have a new Electoral Calculator
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1437455943936233474?s=21
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1437458093902897165?s=21
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1437458361092644873?s=21
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437458704140488706?s=20
All Net Approval Ratings (13 Sept):
Rishi Sunak: +13% (-3)
Boris Johnson: -4% (–)
Keir Starmer: -18% (-8)
Changes +/- 6 Sept
I'm going to a GIG
At Ronnie Scott's
I feel like a teen going to her first dance
i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019
*nervous*
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/08/election-win-calculator
And equally easily we could not. Wouldn't bet on GE 202x if you paid me ATM
*eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*
I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho
MENTAL
It's happening. It's back. I really think this is it. It's back
LIFE
Harvey Elliott on Instagram saying it wasn’t a bad challenge and never a red card
They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
-2 on June 1
Starmer around -10 but hit -37 at one stage
Here is the actual latest forecast, some people above were posting nonsense
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1437462494013009920?s=20
"I said yes to the Covid jab, but no to maths homework - there were too many unknowns"
But hey. Fuck. Life! Music! People! London! YAY
Very good
That being said, a little of the shine has come off the Johnson government. They've shown themselves to be not the most sure footed of cats - whether regarding jabs for kids or the rise in the rate of NI. An implosion looked very unlikely six months ago, it looks more possible today.
This tax rise is utterly disastrous and I've heard zip of serious criticism from any of the Opposition parties.
I honestly feel there's been smarter criticism of this madness from Max, Casino, RCS and myself on this site than there has been from Opposition leaders.
I rather get the impression that Starmer actually agrees with this tax rise, much as he's agreed with the lockdown restrictions etc. If the Opposition doesn't have any alternative ideas to the Government and actually agrees with what they're doing, then why would anyone change the government.
Lets get an Opposition worth its name to hold this failing Government to account.
If you click on the link, it says Con majority 4.
You don't seriously injure someone in a foul and not get sent off.
CON: 311 (-54), 37%
LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
GRN: 1 (=), 8%
RFM: 0 (=), 4%
*That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.
Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1
YouGov surveyed 3230 GB adults
Conducted Sep 13, 2021
It is right to scrap plans for vaccine passports for large capacity venues and nightclubs 30%
It is wrong to scrap plans for vaccine passports for large capacity venues and nightclubs 50%
Don’t know 20%
Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
Pause
Pause
Pause
"JAZZ"
Pause
Pause
Pause
"NICE"
Genius
Are they trying to lose more votes?
There will be many difficulties in the coming 2+ years and a lot of tax and spend issues that would not have been necessary if covid had not happened
Poll movements are meaningless at present, though this is the time that Starmer and Labour would normally be expected to be well ahead
The fact he has fallen 8 points in his approval ratings in a week to - 18 after the week Boris and HMG has had is surprising
Conservative 327 MPs (-38)
Labour 232 MPs (+30)
Liberal Democrat 11 MPs (0)
SNP 56 MPs (+8)
Only Big Train matches it, I think. A golden age we didn't notice
England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.
A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
Eugh yuck!
Checked earlier, and subsidised or free insulation is available almost everywhere.
Rather than doing this whilst causing extra pollution from all the extra traffic jams, these peeps could be volunteering to help people get insulation...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-58543603
The questions are would GBNews have gone under more quickly with whatever half arsed strategy Brillo was pursuing and will it stagger on zombie-like now it's gone down the lcd route?
Andrew Neil
@afneil
It’s official: I have resigned as Chairman and Lead Presenter of GB News.
5:38 pm · 13 Sep 2021·Twitter for iPad
Also I have asked lib dems on here if they could explain their policy on this issue, as I am genuinely interested, but I have not received an answer
Of course the idea that NI should be applied to all pensioner income is not supported by any political party, nor is home owners selling their homes for care
The rise of 1.25% would have been better applied to income tax but we are where are and I just hope the budget will mitigate the effects on the young, students and low paid workers
The 606 Jazz Club, 90 Lots Rd, Chelsea.
The only real problem is the distance to the bus, but you probably have a convenient wifelet nearby.
Edinburgh South, Orkney & Shetland, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
"Best Covid vaccine statistic:
37.4% of all deaths of unvaccinated people are caused by COVID-19
0.8% of all deaths of fully vaccinated people are caused by COVID-19"
That is indeed a great stat.
Is the difference exaggerated because the vulnerable death group, the over 80s, are also the most % vaccinated?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR5yDZO4nZE
Evening all, for anyone else who may be interested in an "arthouse" curtain-raiser for the autumn election season ahead of next week's bliockbusters of Canada and Germany, please see the links below for Norway, exit polls at 8pm GMT with the centre-right government of Erna Solberg expected to be defeated after two terms in power, but the exact makeup of the likely new government under Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre still very much in play. PR with a 4% threshold.
https://valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021
https://tv.nrk.no/direkte/nrktv8
https://www.tv2.no/v/1153546/
Thanks!
DC
A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.
The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
Obviously I would prefer a Tory majority but that is what some of the polling is showing
You really despair about the inept way she came across
It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦♂️
Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
However I also recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books
Or is balancing the books on the backs of the poor better than having people pay for their own care using their own savings?
The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons"
Are you really, really quite sure there's nothing negative in that wording? It emanates negativity like a thaumaturgic halo arsound a Lovecroftian monster from the abyss of Cthulhu.
But never mind. Life is too short and dinner is imminent: I am having a glass of wine and a piece of bread with that runny olive pate - tapenade - stuff. Before tofu and veg stir fry. Have a nice evening, everyone.
However, I do not see any political party addressing it nor highlighting it
Indeed apart from your comments on this subject I have not heard or read about it from anyone previously
If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.
That needs to be restored too.
I think the original IDS proposal was for a taper around 50-55%.
Why should we have a real tax rate of 75%? How is that appropriate, fair or reasonable? How is it economic either as there'll be serious Laffer consequences from taxing at 75%.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom? (13 Sept):
Boris Johnson: 44% (+2)
Keir Starmer: 27% (-3)
Changes +/- 6 Sept
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437463725913554953?s=20
All the proposals mean is that inheritances are not wiped out to pay for care, which is correct.
I also said I would support an extension of UC, of course the poorest ie almost all of those earning under £10,000, are exempt from NI anyway
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/22/labour-to-pledge-shake-up-of-universal-credit-as-part-of-wider-new-deal
But here is an older example
https://policyexchange.org.uk/universal-credit-and-the-big-labour-market-questions-the-uk-needs-to-consider/