Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 13 in General
imageThe latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting – politicalbetting.com

As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • First like Emma!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    Well yes, for mid term this is pretty good.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Second like the runner up in a knockout tennis competition.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    I've asked before, would matching the swing from peak May in May to actual result in June 2017 be enough to get labour home?
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    …..
  • So, nobody has asked me but I've placed my next bet.

    Conservative majority, I have laid it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    At the moment the polls are showing a hung parliament.

    The only real question is whether it will be Sturgeon and Blackford or Sir Jeffrey Donaldson who will be Kingmakers
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    edited September 13
    The thread header is spot on, these are not polls predicting the next election.

    However I think these polls point to little seat movement at the next election when you factor in what isn’t happening mid term and swingback from here probably late in the parliament. So we can have a good idea what is likely to happen.

    These are disastrous polls for Labour. In mid term, in the week of the biggest tax take budget in peace time, and election guarantees broken, Labour can only by a fraction drag Tories below 40%?

    Ignore the gap between parties. Ignore what the seat engines saying - there’s a huge polling story here based around the Tories comfortably in or barely out the forties and the reason why.

    Let’s deal in facts. No matter what is thrown at this government, greatest military surrender in peacetime, greatest tax take in peacetime, running away from Covid enquiry etc, this government has an iron floor in its polling numbers and Labour a glass ceiling.

    I propose the reason for this is disaster for Labour is Red brexiteers, swallowed whole by Boris as he swallowed all UKIP vote, are just not unwinding back to Labour. Whether it’s politics, or political betting that Red Brex bloc happy to tell the world they are Tory voters now is a huge thing, they are not even saying don’t no at this stage.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    I've asked before, would matching the swing from peak May in May to actual result in June 2017 be enough to get labour home?

    Doesn't Labour start off - if we are to take the current polls - in a much stronger position than that?

    In 2017 Labour was 25 points behind, now they are about 5 behind (?). Corbyn's ratings were in the gutter and historically terrible, Starmer's are now just bad.

    2017 repeat would produce a Labour minority, almost certainly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Bad week for the government?

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437458704140488706?s=20

    All Net Approval Ratings (13 Sept):

    Rishi Sunak: +13% (-3)
    Boris Johnson: -4% (–)
    Keir Starmer: -18% (-8)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    gealbhan said:

    The thread header is spot on, these are not polls predicting the next election.

    However I think these polls point to little seat movement at the next election when you factor in what isn’t happening mid term and swingback from here probably late in the parliament. So we can have a good idea what is likely to happen.

    These are disastrous polls for Labour. In mid term, in the week of the biggest tax take budget in peace time, and election guarantees broken, Labour can only by a fraction drag Tories below 40%?

    Ignore the gap between parties. Ignore what the seat engines saying - there’s a huge polling story here based around the Tories comfortably in or barely out the forties and the reason why.

    Let’s deal in facts. No matter what is thrown at this government, greatest military surrender in peacetime, greatest tax take in peacetime, running away from Covid enquiry etc, this government has an iron floor in its polling numbers and Labour a glass ceiling.

    I propose the reason for this is disaster for Labour is Red brexiteers, swallowed whole by Boris as he swallowed all UKIP vote, are just not unwinding back to Labour. Whether it’s politics, or political betting that Red Brex bloc happy to tell the world they are Tory voters now is a huge thing, they are not even saying don’t no at this stage.

    Yeah all true until it isn't. Let's wait for winter lockdown stagflation and the NI increase to enter the equation. We could very easily be having a Funny how we used to write Starmer off conv this time next year

    And equally easily we could not. Wouldn't bet on GE 202x if you paid me ATM
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 13
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the polls are showing a hung parliament.

    The only real question is whether it will be Sturgeon and Blackford or Sir Jeffrey Donaldson who will be Kingmakers

    The only real issue is that they are irrelevant to GE 24
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    So, nobody has asked me but I've placed my next bet.

    Conservative majority, I have laid it

    I’ve just backed it
  • isam said:

    So, nobody has asked me but I've placed my next bet.

    Conservative majority, I have laid it

    I’ve just backed it
    I'll place something more short term in the meantime, when it comes across my desk
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    These last weeks I have had travelled to three countries, had sex with two women, and now I'm going to my first gig in about TWENTY MONTHS

    It's happening. It's back. I really think this is it. It's back

    LIFE

  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    edited September 13
    @TheScreamingEagles @Philip_Thompson @tlg86

    Harvey Elliott on Instagram saying it wasn’t a bad challenge and never a red card
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    Leon said:

    These last weeks I have had travelled to three countries, had sex with two women, and now I'm going to my first gig in about TWENTY MONTHS

    It's happening. It's back. I really think this is it. It's back

    LIFE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J0LYp7daMc
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
    Have you seen how teens dress at the moment?

    They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852

    IshmaelZ said:

    I've asked before, would matching the swing from peak May in May to actual result in June 2017 be enough to get labour home?

    Doesn't Labour start off - if we are to take the current polls - in a much stronger position than that?

    In 2017 Labour was 25 points behind, now they are about 5 behind (?). Corbyn's ratings were in the gutter and historically terrible, Starmer's are now just bad.

    2017 repeat would produce a Labour minority, almost certainly.
    Corbyn -41 in March
    -2 on June 1
    Starmer around -10 but hit -37 at one stage
  • https://twitter.com/Patrick_E_Scott/status/1437461854239051776

    Here is the actual latest forecast, some people above were posting nonsense
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
    Have you seen how teens dress at the moment?

    They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
    Did you ask for your clothes back?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    edited September 13
    Matt, brilliant as ever…

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1437462494013009920?s=20

    "I said yes to the Covid jab, but no to maths homework - there were too many unknowns"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
    Have you seen how teens dress at the moment?

    They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
    Did you ask for your clothes back?
    I keep seeing items I donated to Oxfam during a guilty hangover being worn as high fashion. It is quite odd

    But hey. Fuck. Life! Music! People! London! YAY
  • The latest prediction is Con majority of 4 - and I predict that is going down down down
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
    Have you seen how teens dress at the moment?

    They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
    Ah, then go as you are...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What does one wear TO A GIG?

    *eyes wardrobe of hoodies in consternation*

    What you like, but don't try to dress like you are also a teenager...
    Have you seen how teens dress at the moment?

    They dress like old men with alcohol problems....
    Did you ask for your clothes back?
    I just got your joke. God, I must be old

    Very good

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    DavidL said:

    Well yes, for mid term this is pretty good.

    Most governments would cut off their own arm to be a few points behind the opposition midterm.

    That being said, a little of the shine has come off the Johnson government. They've shown themselves to be not the most sure footed of cats - whether regarding jabs for kids or the rise in the rate of NI. An implosion looked very unlikely six months ago, it looks more possible today.
  • DavidL said:

    Well yes, for mid term this is pretty good.

    Where's the Opposition? Where's Starmer? Where's Davey?

    This tax rise is utterly disastrous and I've heard zip of serious criticism from any of the Opposition parties.

    I honestly feel there's been smarter criticism of this madness from Max, Casino, RCS and myself on this site than there has been from Opposition leaders.

    I rather get the impression that Starmer actually agrees with this tax rise, much as he's agreed with the lockdown restrictions etc. If the Opposition doesn't have any alternative ideas to the Government and actually agrees with what they're doing, then why would anyone change the government.

    Lets get an Opposition worth its name to hold this failing Government to account.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    That's correct.

    If you click on the link, it says Con majority 4.
  • isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles @Philip_Thompson @tlg86

    Harvey Elliott on Instagram saying it wasn’t a bad challenge and never a red card

    That's generous and sporting of him to say, but VAR and the Referee rightly disagreed at the time.

    You don't seriously injure someone in a foul and not get sent off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1
  • - “Do you think it is right or wrong to scrap plans for vaccine passports for large capacity venues and nightclubs?”
    YouGov surveyed 3230 GB adults
    Conducted Sep 13, 2021

    It is right to scrap plans for vaccine passports for large capacity venues and nightclubs 30%

    It is wrong to scrap plans for vaccine passports for large capacity venues and nightclubs 50%

    Don’t know 20%
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    edited September 13
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
  • No way the SNP get 59 seats
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "JAZZ"

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "NICE"

    Genius
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    Just had an 8 page glossy A4 magazine through the door by Yes.Scot headed "A referendum for recovery". That has cost someone a bob or two.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 13
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Well yes, for mid term this is pretty good.

    Most governments would cut off their own arm to be a few points behind the opposition midterm.

    That being said, a little of the shine has come off the Johnson government. They've shown themselves to be not the most sure footed of cats - whether regarding jabs for kids or the rise in the rate of NI. An implosion looked very unlikely six months ago, it looks more possible today.
    The Government has until spring 24 before it faces the electorate and is dealing with the fallout from Brexit and covid

    There will be many difficulties in the coming 2+ years and a lot of tax and spend issues that would not have been necessary if covid had not happened

    Poll movements are meaningless at present, though this is the time that Starmer and Labour would normally be expected to be well ahead

    The fact he has fallen 8 points in his approval ratings in a week to - 18 after the week Boris and HMG has had is surprising
  • HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    Puppet or Clown? England gets the governments she deserves.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    DavidL said:

    Just had an 8 page glossy A4 magazine through the door by Yes.Scot headed "A referendum for recovery". That has cost someone a bob or two.

    Royal Mail, or activist-delivered? Nothing like that for me (Aberdeenshire).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "JAZZ"

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "NICE"

    Genius
    I'll take the 606 Club.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    The actual breakdown is more interesting. How do the SNP gain 8 seats while Labour gain seats.

    Conservative 327 MPs (-38)
    Labour 232 MPs (+30)
    Liberal Democrat 11 MPs (0)
    SNP 56 MPs (+8)

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    DavidL said:

    Just had an 8 page glossy A4 magazine through the door by Yes.Scot headed "A referendum for recovery". That has cost someone a bob or two.

    Almost certainly you
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "JAZZ"

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "NICE"

    Genius
    I'll take the 606 Club.
    The worst of the Fast Show is terrible, but their best sketches are still sublime.

    Only Big Train matches it, I think. A golden age we didn't notice
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,094
    edited September 13
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    IshmaelZ said:

    gealbhan said:

    The thread header is spot on, these are not polls predicting the next election.

    However I think these polls point to little seat movement at the next election when you factor in what isn’t happening mid term and swingback from here probably late in the parliament. So we can have a good idea what is likely to happen.

    These are disastrous polls for Labour. In mid term, in the week of the biggest tax take budget in peace time, and election guarantees broken, Labour can only by a fraction drag Tories below 40%?

    Ignore the gap between parties. Ignore what the seat engines saying - there’s a huge polling story here based around the Tories comfortably in or barely out the forties and the reason why.

    Let’s deal in facts. No matter what is thrown at this government, greatest military surrender in peacetime, greatest tax take in peacetime, running away from Covid enquiry etc, this government has an iron floor in its polling numbers and Labour a glass ceiling.

    I propose the reason for this is disaster for Labour is Red brexiteers, swallowed whole by Boris as he swallowed all UKIP vote, are just not unwinding back to Labour. Whether it’s politics, or political betting that Red Brex bloc happy to tell the world they are Tory voters now is a huge thing, they are not even saying don’t no at this stage.

    Yeah all true until it isn't. Let's wait for winter lockdown stagflation and the NI increase to enter the equation. We could very easily be having a Funny how we used to write Starmer off conv this time next year

    And equally easily we could not. Wouldn't bet on GE 202x if you paid me ATM
    I'd bet on it if you paid me. I'd bet on it with the money you paid me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
    Did you notice his HYUFDomathics?

    England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.

    A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
  • If it's not a Tory majority, it's almost certainly another election, which would be fascinating, what would the manifestos be in such a situation
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Sean is more “late” Woody Allen than “early” Woody Allen.

    Eugh yuck!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    eek said:

    The actual breakdown is more interesting. How do the SNP gain 8 seats while Labour gain seats.

    Conservative 327 MPs (-38)
    Labour 232 MPs (+30)
    Liberal Democrat 11 MPs (0)
    SNP 56 MPs (+8)

    Different countries.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 13
    Has anyone been caught up in the Effwits on the Motorway event?

    Checked earlier, and subsidised or free insulation is available almost everywhere.

    Rather than doing this whilst causing extra pollution from all the extra traffic jams, these peeps could be volunteering to help people get insulation...



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-58543603
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    edited September 13
    The worst kept secret in gammon business.

    The questions are would GBNews have gone under more quickly with whatever half arsed strategy Brillo was pursuing and will it stagger on zombie-like now it's gone down the lcd route?

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    It’s official: I have resigned as Chairman and Lead Presenter of GB News.
    5:38 pm · 13 Sep 2021·Twitter for iPad
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
    Did you notice his HYUFDomathics?

    England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.

    A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
    Alpacalypse. Poor old Geronimo. Was he not TB-free upon autopsy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
    Did you notice his HYUFDomathics?

    England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.

    A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
    Alpacalypse. Poor old Geronimo. Was he not TB-free upon autopsy?
    AFAIU the data won't be fully out for some months.
  • DavidL said:

    Well yes, for mid term this is pretty good.

    Where's the Opposition? Where's Starmer? Where's Davey?

    This tax rise is utterly disastrous and I've heard zip of serious criticism from any of the Opposition parties.

    I honestly feel there's been smarter criticism of this madness from Max, Casino, RCS and myself on this site than there has been from Opposition leaders.

    I rather get the impression that Starmer actually agrees with this tax rise, much as he's agreed with the lockdown restrictions etc. If the Opposition doesn't have any alternative ideas to the Government and actually agrees with what they're doing, then why would anyone change the government.

    Lets get an Opposition worth its name to hold this failing Government to account.
    The fact non of Starmer, Ashworth, or Kendall have said they will scap the NI rise, and that labour are on record previously of favouring a NI increase for social care really does indicate they have no plausible alternative

    Also I have asked lib dems on here if they could explain their policy on this issue, as I am genuinely interested, but I have not received an answer

    Of course the idea that NI should be applied to all pensioner income is not supported by any political party, nor is home owners selling their homes for care

    The rise of 1.25% would have been better applied to income tax but we are where are and I just hope the budget will mitigate the effects on the young, students and low paid workers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    If it's not a Tory majority, it's almost certainly another election, which would be fascinating, what would the manifestos be in such a situation

    And how many party leaders would survive
  • eek said:

    The actual breakdown is more interesting. How do the SNP gain 8 seats while Labour gain seats.

    Conservative 327 MPs (-38)
    Labour 232 MPs (+30)
    Liberal Democrat 11 MPs (0)
    SNP 56 MPs (+8)

    Pretty sure 2 of those SNP gains would be from Alba..
  • The worst kept secret in gammon business.

    The questions are would GBNews have gone under more quickly with whatever half arsed strategy Brillo was pursuing and will it stagger on zombie-like now it's gone down the lcd route?

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    It’s official: I have resigned as Chairman and Lead Presenter of GB News.
    5:38 pm · 13 Sep 2021·Twitter for iPad

    Brillo killed the Scotchman. Now he’s murdered GBeebies.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 13
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "JAZZ"

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "NICE"

    Genius
    I'll take the 606 Club.
    The worst of the Fast Show is terrible, but their best sketches are still sublime.

    Only Big Train matches it, I think. A golden age we didn't notice
    LOL. Good reply.

    The 606 Jazz Club, 90 Lots Rd, Chelsea.

    The only real problem is the distance to the bus, but you probably have a convenient wifelet nearby.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    rcs1000 said:

    That's correct.

    If you click on the link, it says Con majority 4.
    When I click it it says 74 still. They must have only just updated it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    https://twitter.com/Patrick_E_Scott/status/1437461854239051776

    Here is the actual latest forecast, some people above were posting nonsense

    That's a bit more sensible re the SNP. Only 56 seats.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,094
    edited September 13
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    FUDHY’s awareness of Scottish society and electoral behaviour is purely cyber. He has zilch understanding of the lie of the land.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,499
    FPT:

    "Best Covid vaccine statistic:

    37.4% of all deaths of unvaccinated people are caused by COVID-19
    0.8% of all deaths of fully vaccinated people are caused by COVID-19"

    That is indeed a great stat.

    Is the difference exaggerated because the vulnerable death group, the over 80s, are also the most % vaccinated?
  • Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers

    I'm going to a GIG

    At Ronnie Scott's

    I feel like a teen going to her first dance

    i haven't been to a GIG for at least a year, maybe since 2019

    *nervous*

    Make sure you have your taxi fare home in case it doesn't work out
    Thanks

    I'm actually genuinely slightly apprehensive. Not because Covid, just....... wow. A gig. In a club. In Soho

    MENTAL
    image

    Sorry but that's the first image that came into my head when Ronnie Scotts is mentioned.
    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "JAZZ"

    Pause

    Pause

    Pause

    "NICE"

    Genius
    I'll take the 606 Club.
    The worst of the Fast Show is terrible, but their best sketches are still sublime.

    Only Big Train matches it, I think. A golden age we didn't notice
    A sketch show of that era which slipped under the radar - possibly because it was on ITV - was 'The Sketch Show'. Lee Mack and Tim Vine again. No great feats of surreality or grotesqueness; indeed, at times it was verging on The Two Ronnies in its straightforwardness. But very, very well done.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR5yDZO4nZE
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 307
    edited September 13
    Valgnatt

    Evening all, for anyone else who may be interested in an "arthouse" curtain-raiser for the autumn election season ahead of next week's bliockbusters of Canada and Germany, please see the links below for Norway, exit polls at 8pm GMT with the centre-right government of Erna Solberg expected to be defeated after two terms in power, but the exact makeup of the likely new government under Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre still very much in play. PR with a 4% threshold.

    https://valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021

    https://tv.nrk.no/direkte/nrktv8

    https://www.tv2.no/v/1153546/

    Thanks!

    DC
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
    Did you notice his HYUFDomathics?

    England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.

    A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
    I did not give any negative comment to my remarks, I am a Unionist and accept that on some polls Starmer will become PM with SNP confidence and supply even though the Tories will win most seats and there would be a Tory majority in England.

    Obviously I would prefer a Tory majority but that is what some of the polling is showing
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    I would be very surprised if any of the following seats were to fall to the SNP:

    Edinburgh South, Orkney & Shetland, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Re the two Borders seats, it depends what Reform UK get up to. Michelle Ballantyne is from the Borders and might stand in one of those Borders seats esp with all the retirees, if they are still pissed about the pension cuts, not to mention the working voters. Not nearly enough to win but enough to mess up the full fat Unionist vote in a FPTP. They did get only about 0.2% at Holyrood in the regional vote in 2021- by comparison, Alba got ten times as much - but that would inclide less Brexit-friendly areas across the region as a whole.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    Stocky said:

    FPT:

    "Best Covid vaccine statistic:

    37.4% of all deaths of unvaccinated people are caused by COVID-19
    0.8% of all deaths of fully vaccinated people are caused by COVID-19"

    That is indeed a great stat.

    Is the difference exaggerated because the vulnerable death group, the over 80s, are also the most % vaccinated?

    Yes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    It’s a science experiment to see just what it will take to wake Starmer up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    Ah - SDS has explained it. There is a difference to advocating Scottish independence from the rUK and advocating English independence from the rUK.
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    Personally I would keep the UC uplift, at least for a few months after furlough ends in case unemployment goes up.

    However I also recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    Personally I would keep the UC uplift, at least for a few months after furlough ends in case unemployment goes up.

    However I also recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books
    If you recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books then do you recognise that redistributing money to pay for people's inheritance should not be a top priority?

    Or is balancing the books on the backs of the poor better than having people pay for their own care using their own savings?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The replies to this plaintively bleating 'but Ian Murray would be bound to keep his seat!' are a joy.



    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236?s=20


    Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (13 Sept):

    Conservative 39% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 6% (–)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 Sept

    First time Cons below 40% since Oct. 2020.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1437446073895817222?s=20

    That poll also shows the Tories losing their majority but with 319 seats they could stay in power if they could persuade the 8 DUP MPs and their leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to back them.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So at the moment polls are consistently showing a hung parliament, only question being whether it is the SNP or the DUP again who are kingmakers, Boris and Starmer would both be reliant on Sturgeon and Blackford or Donaldson to get any legislation through
    Drag border down the Irish Sea, and then beg the Orange Lodge to ignore the doo doo you left on their doorstep. Classy.
    Did you notice his HYUFDomathics?

    England rules Scotland and the UK - natural order of things.

    A large chunk of English votes + Scotland gains a majority = Essex version of the alpacalypse.
    I did not give any negative comment to my remarks, I am a Unionist and accept that on some polls Starmer will become PM with SNP confidence and supply even though the Tories will win most seats and there would be a Tory majority in England.

    Obviously I would prefer a Tory majority but that is what some of the polling is showing
    "Never mind winning every seat in Scotland, on that MRP Sturgeon would effectively be running the whole UK.

    The Tories would win most seats but Starmer would be a puppet PM, wholly dependent on the SNP to get anything through the Commons"

    Are you really, really quite sure there's nothing negative in that wording? It emanates negativity like a thaumaturgic halo arsound a Lovecroftian monster from the abyss of Cthulhu.

    But never mind. Life is too short and dinner is imminent: I am having a glass of wine and a piece of bread with that runny olive pate - tapenade - stuff. Before tofu and veg stir fry. Have a nice evening, everyone.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58547881

    Are they trying to lose more votes?

    Its f***ing ignorant and out of touch.

    A UC claimant doing 2 hours more work gets about £4.50 net after tax and NI and UC taper.

    The bad thing is that nobody in the media has a clue how it works either so she can say that and not be challenged there and then for talking through her arse.
    She just has been on ITV main news

    You really despair about the inept way she came across

    It is reputed 100 conservative mps are against the abolition of the uplift and I really hope they vote with labour later this week and shame HMG
    The thing is they clearly don't understand the system they've created themselves.

    The problem for years now is that the income tax rates have been fudged, so now nobody has a clue that doesn't pay attention that the income tax rate for someone on UC is 75% - and its going to be even higher once this recent tax rise goes up too. 🤦‍♂️

    Why do we tax those less fortunate than ourselves 75%. Its disgusting and nobody campaigns against it.
    I think it is not understood and it is wrong

    However, I do not see any political party addressing it nor highlighting it

    Indeed apart from your comments on this subject I have not heard or read about it from anyone previously
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    Do people recall as if it were yesterday how I went anti-herd (post Hartlepool) and got long of 'Starmer Next PM' @ 8?

    No? Ok, didn't think so, doesn't matter, Point is, here is a market which HAS moved quite a lot recently. He now has a 4 handle and is clear fav over the midget gem.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    Personally I would keep the UC uplift, at least for a few months after furlough ends in case unemployment goes up.

    However I also recognise the Chancellor needs to balance the books
    Not on the back of low paid workers
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 13

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Full MRP Result:

    CON: 311 (-54), 37%
    LAB: 244, (+41), 33%
    SNP: 59* (+11), 5%
    LDM: 12 (+1), 12%
    PLC: 5 (+1), 1%
    GRN: 1 (=), 8%
    RFM: 0 (=), 4%

    *That's EVERY Scottish seat for the SNP.
    Hung Parliament, CON 15 short.

    Via @ElectCalculus & @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2019. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1437436633511604236/photo/1

    Really silly to emphasise the SNP 59 line. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Scottish politics knows there that simply isn't going to happen. I presume this is done on the basis of uniform swing, but we know that's just a convenient fiction.
    Oh, quite, but it gives HYUFD something new to get aerated about.
    He doesn't need an excuse.
    When exactly did he turn away from supporting Scottish independence?
    Before my time on PB.
    Not true. Last five years.
    He advocated the morphing of the Conservatives into “the English Nationalist Party” during the summer. Then… predictably… denied all screenshots.
    Plus there's this:
    https://twitter.com/HYUFD1/status/746847388418052096
    I was a Remainer and had a brief tantrum for a week after Leave won.

    However compared to most Remainers that was pretty brief, I soon accepted the Brexit result and committed to making the best of it and returned to my normal pre EU Referendum Unionist self
    Do you support the conservative mps who are going to quite rightly vote with labour against the abolition of the £20 UC uplift
    If it was up to me I would be happy to see the abolition of the uplift so long as the real tax rate for poor working people should be slashed.

    If the effective real tax rate was slashed to ~30% instead of 75% then absolutely remove the uplift and lets see people work more and keep more of their own money instead.
    UC has been reduced by around 10% in the last few years.

    That needs to be restored too.

    I think the original IDS proposal was for a taper around 50-55%.
Sign In or Register to comment.