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Two new VI voting polls out today adding to the confusion – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,853

    Russia reports 820 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 19,630 new cases

    We can only guess at how bad it really is....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,627
    Just to say, I think England were right to bat on. There's a lot of time left in this Test Match.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
  • Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,200
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Some captains would take the ultra-attacking move of declaring before the end of play, but I don't think Joe Root will do it.

    There's no point even for an attacking captain, not with three full days left.
    Quite. There are some very odd ideas out there. It’s not day four! You dont get the wickets back if you declare, and as has been pointed out, big runs have been made to win here in the recent past.
    OK I am obviously having an unusually stupid day but what does You dont get the wickets back mean?
    It means that 350/7 is the same as 350/10, if you declare. Those three wickets have gone, and with them the opportunity to score more runs.
    It's still only Day 2 - why wold you declare? We have probably got three days to bowl them out and a target they won't reach whenever we let them bat again.
    Yes, batting on too long is a risk and does happen, but that's not where this match is at.
    In toss up situations I ways fancy a bowl in the fading light, especially in England.
    Now that we've clearly not done that, I'd probably tell Overton and Robinson to bat as defensively and boringly as possible for the first hour tomorrow at least, just to annoy them. Then when Anderson gets in he can just slog at everything until he gets out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,717
    edited August 2021
    The beast....one handed six... different game these days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    He has a good, sly, sense of humour.
    I like Barnier as well. I’d think he would be a good choice.
    I got on Barnier at 30 earlier when someone posted a rumour he was going to announce. Now 18.5.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    I would imagine the risk now is that Biden feels the need to act tough by retaliating which makes things x100 times worse on the ground. His poll ratings are already sinking and this event will plunge them down further.

    You then have the Harris factor. Latest poll out shows not only a very bad rating for her but also unprecedented negative numbers when it comes to people feeling very negative about her.

    Not looking good.
    Is Harris not even in the US at present ?
    SE Asia. Basically getting her out of the line of sight.
    She's clearly smarter than I'd given her credit for.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    "President Biden huddled with his national security team at the White House on Thursday, getting updates about the explosions near the Kabul airport and what they might mean for the last days of the frantic evacuation effort underway in Afghanistan.

    White House officials said Mr. Biden was being briefed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, and other top aides."

    NYTimes live blog
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,200
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    I would imagine the risk now is that Biden feels the need to act tough by retaliating which makes things x100 times worse on the ground. His poll ratings are already sinking and this event will plunge them down further.

    You then have the Harris factor. Latest poll out shows not only a very bad rating for her but also unprecedented negative numbers when it comes to people feeling very negative about her.

    Not looking good.
    Is Harris not even in the US at present ?
    SE Asia. Basically getting her out of the line of sight.
    The only purpose of a veep is to replace the president if he dies. Arguably therefore she's being super-conscientious by being as far from his as possible. If the president (and indeed half the country) were to perish in a meteor strike she'd be well placed to pick up the reins.
    Honestly, I don't know why I'm not a spin doctor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616

    Continuing to enjoy Duncan Weldon's "Muddling Through" - on the Dreadnought race:

    "Only in hyper-paranoid Edwardian Britain could eight be seen as a reasonable compromise between four and six."
    (the number of Dreadnought hulls laid down).

    In the end we entered WWI with 30 to the German's 19...

    https://twitter.com/LittleBrownUK/status/1430848260625797124?s=20

    That sounds like rather good fun. I assume you've read Massie on the period?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Evening all :)

    More polling from Norway which votes on September 13th.

    This is a Respons poll - changes from 2017 Storting election:

    Labour: 26.6% (-0.8)
    Conservatives: 21.1% (-3.9)
    Centre Party: 11.9% (+1.6)
    Progress Party: 9.4% (-5.8)
    Socialist Left: 6.7% (+0.7)
    Greens: 6.7% (+3.5)
    Red Party: 5.3% (+2.9)
    Liberal Party: 4.5% (+0.1)
    Christian Democrats: 4.4% (+0.2)

    That puts the bloc of centre-right parties on 39.4% and the centre-left bloc on 50.5% so a narrowing but still decisive 11 point lead.
  • I've shopped at Lidl for a while now, quite honestly Sainsbury's seems pretty comparable on price.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,110
    Ive been in the office every day this week and I forgot how much more exhausting (and expensive) it is
  • @rottenborough be interesting to see if I get any substitutions on my order
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,218
    edited August 2021

    Interestingly Bidens whole argument to pull out of Afghanistan was because there hadn’t been a terrorist threat for 20 years.

    And here we have ISIS-K (supposedly), looking to move in and fill a vacuum.

    He's been making the argument for a long time that the US invade + occupy project was a mistake and recent events don't on the face of it threaten this assessment. But we'll have to see how things pan out over the longer term.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616

    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    "President Biden huddled with his national security team at the White House on Thursday, getting updates about the explosions near the Kabul airport and what they might mean for the last days of the frantic evacuation effort underway in Afghanistan.

    White House officials said Mr. Biden was being briefed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, and other top aides."

    NYTimes live blog
    Is 'huddled' a euphemism for 'dozed'?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,032
    kinabalu said:

    Interestingly Bidens whole argument to pull out of Afghanistan was because there hadn’t been a terrorist threat for 20 years.

    And here we have ISIS-K (supposedly), looking to move in and fill a vacuum.

    He's been making the argument for a long time that the US invade + occupy project was a mistake and recent events don't on the face of it threaten this assessment. But we'll have to see how things pan out over the longer term.
    That sounds like “let’s find an excuse just to ignore his whole performance so far”
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    Our @JenGriffinFNC brings us more tragic news this hour. The death toll among U.S. servicemembers is now at least 10

    https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1430953910131478534?s=20

    Although the direct source has not (yet) tweeted as such
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,402
    edited August 2021
    "17:48
    More attacks at airport likely - veteran US colonel

    Mike Jason, a former US Army battalion commander who was deployed to Afghanistan, said that observers “all knew that this was going to happen”. “The targets are just too lucrative and the symbolic gesture just too attractive to these people,” he said.

    Analysts believe the blasts are probably the work of Isis-K, the Afghan affiliate of Islamic State. Col Jason said he believed Isis-K would "absolutely” make another attempt to attack the evacuations.

    “They’ve got the resources and they’ve got the reach,” he said. “They’ve also got targets - the crowds of defenceless people who are desperate.”

    Col Jason, who is working with a non-profit called Allied Airlift 21 that is aimed at evacuating US Afghan allies, said: “We have precious little time and we have to fight. We have five days until the final American pullout, and we don’t know what happens afterwards"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-58279900
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,110
    One very interesting comparison between law and engineering I have noticed so far is how much more focused on individualism law is. In engineering it’s all about high performance teams and collaboration. Law seems very individual focussed - ‘my clients’, ‘my billable hours’, ‘my work’. Fascinating.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,325

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    This attack is not in the Taliban's interest, they would not have wanted it but were clearly unable to stop it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616
    kinabalu said:

    Interestingly Bidens whole argument to pull out of Afghanistan was because there hadn’t been a terrorist threat for 20 years.

    And here we have ISIS-K (supposedly), looking to move in and fill a vacuum.

    He's been making the argument for a long time that the US invade + occupy project was a mistake and recent events don't on the face of it threaten this assessment. But we'll have to see how things pan out over the longer term.
    While I think Biden made a mistake, at least he's made it early.

    If Afghanistan ends in civil war, it absolutely sucks for Afghanis, but it also doesn't really cause that many problems for Americans. Indeed, civil war between the Taliban, the Taziks and IS means that a poverty stricken Afghanistan is inward looking and not going to be sponsoring terrorism any time soon.

    Much worse for Biden is a successful Taliban take over, and an implacably hostile Afghanistan which is stable enough to bring in inward investment.

    Right now, the former is looking more likely than the latter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    rcs1000 said:

    Continuing to enjoy Duncan Weldon's "Muddling Through" - on the Dreadnought race:

    "Only in hyper-paranoid Edwardian Britain could eight be seen as a reasonable compromise between four and six."
    (the number of Dreadnought hulls laid down).

    In the end we entered WWI with 30 to the German's 19...

    https://twitter.com/LittleBrownUK/status/1430848260625797124?s=20

    That sounds like rather good fun. I assume you've read Massie on the period?
    Yes - brilliant - we forget how enormously wealthy Edwardian Britain was - when it got in a panic over Dreadnoughts it simply doubled spending, then doubled it again, and was on the way to doubling it again before the war started...the Germans never stood a chance....
  • In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    ISIS-K hates the Taliban.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Meanwhile, in Germany, plenty of interest in the national numbers but more useful data may come from the Regional polling. Here's Mecklenburg/Upper Pomerania:

    Changes from 2017 election:

    Social Democrats: 36% (+18.5)
    Alternative for Germany: 17% (-1)
    Christian Democrats: 15% (-19)
    Left: 11% (-7.5)
    Free Democrats: 8% (+3)
    Greens: 6% (+2.5)

    That's an extraordinary swing against the CDU and perhaps suggests the SPD will gain ground in the more industrial areas while the Greens will be the beneficiaries in the more rural areas.
  • Boooo Livingstone out....
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,567

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
  • Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    This attack is not in the Taliban's interest, they would not have wanted it but were clearly unable to stop it.
    It has been reported that the Taliban were the source of the US/UK intelligence on this
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,040

    MrEd said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    I would imagine the risk now is that Biden feels the need to act tough by retaliating which makes things x100 times worse on the ground. His poll ratings are already sinking and this event will plunge them down further.

    You then have the Harris factor. Latest poll out shows not only a very bad rating for her but also unprecedented negative numbers when it comes to people feeling very negative about her.

    Not looking good.
    Is Harris not even in the US at present ?
    She’s in Vietnam of all places, obviously reminding herself of what an American military clusterf*** looks like.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,233
    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,197

    One very interesting comparison between law and engineering I have noticed so far is how much more focused on individualism law is. In engineering it’s all about high performance teams and collaboration. Law seems very individual focussed - ‘my clients’, ‘my billable hours’, ‘my work’. Fascinating.

    Law will have to get over that eventually. It infected medicine, with the culture of specialists in the US. But now there is a trend back to 'total patient care' where the specialists actually act as a team, not independent disciplines.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,083
    edited August 2021
    Thread

    An in-depth investigation has uncovered that Tina Forte, a Republican who is running against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2022, participated in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6.

    https://twitter.com/snopes/status/1430957124360675333
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,872
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Some captains would take the ultra-attacking move of declaring before the end of play, but I don't think Joe Root will do it.

    There's no point even for an attacking captain, not with three full days left.
    Quite. There are some very odd ideas out there. It’s not day four! You dont get the wickets back if you declare, and as has been pointed out, big runs have been made to win here in the recent past.
    OK I am obviously having an unusually stupid day but what does You dont get the wickets back mean?
    It means that 350/7 is the same as 350/10, if you declare. Those three wickets have gone, and with them the opportunity to score more runs.
    Thanks.

    Seems to verge on the extremely obvious. Thought I was missing something.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,961
    TimT said:

    One very interesting comparison between law and engineering I have noticed so far is how much more focused on individualism law is. In engineering it’s all about high performance teams and collaboration. Law seems very individual focussed - ‘my clients’, ‘my billable hours’, ‘my work’. Fascinating.

    Law will have to get over that eventually. It infected medicine, with the culture of specialists in the US. But now there is a trend back to 'total patient care' where the specialists actually act as a team, not independent disciplines.
    The legal profession has got over it. One person (usually a junior) to do the work, and a bunch of partners to reap the fat fees.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,135
    BBC News source says 60 killed 140 wounded
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    DeClare said:

    Monkeys said:

    LD on 14%?

    More surprising that the Greens are supposedly on 6% and one poll has them on 8%!
    In 2017 they got 1.6% and when many on the left were disillusioned with Corbyn they only crept up to 2.7%
    These figures are for England and Wales because there is a separate Green party in Scotland.
    Is that right? Surely the Scottish Greens are no different to Scottish Conservatives etc - same name, same party, same vote tally.
    IIRC the Scottish Greens are quite separate from the England and Wales Green Party. It's more akin to the LibDem/APNI relationship than Cons/SCons.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,110

    TimT said:

    One very interesting comparison between law and engineering I have noticed so far is how much more focused on individualism law is. In engineering it’s all about high performance teams and collaboration. Law seems very individual focussed - ‘my clients’, ‘my billable hours’, ‘my work’. Fascinating.

    Law will have to get over that eventually. It infected medicine, with the culture of specialists in the US. But now there is a trend back to 'total patient care' where the specialists actually act as a team, not independent disciplines.
    The legal profession has got over it. One person (usually a junior) to do the work, and a bunch of partners to reap the fat fees.
    :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    ISIS-K hates the Taliban.
    Indeed. The Taliban are seen as soft lefty liberals by the psycho fascists of the ISIS-K.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    This attack is not in the Taliban's interest, they would not have wanted it but were clearly unable to stop it.
    It has been reported that the Taliban were the source of the US/UK intelligence on this
    Apparently the Taliban regard ISIS as apostates. Reportedly when they opened one of the prisons in Kabul as they took over, they found an ISIS guy and killed him on the spot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    It takes a special kind of mind to link kneeling before games with a player being charge with rape, and to do so in a ridiculous way even for that sentiment.
  • How long before Fox gets the twitter ban hammer like that Milo guy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616
    edited August 2021
    Re the California recall:

    Well, the Democrats seem to be getting their arses into gear. Finally Los Angeles is full of "stop the Recall" posters. It may all be a little too late, but the Democrats finally seem to be getting organised. The way the election is organised probably favours the Dems somewhat: it's all postal, with every California voter having received two ballot papers: one on recall, and one on who gets the job if Newsom is recalled.

    My gut is that Newsom will survive the recall by around 53-47. While his opponents are well organised, the anger at Newsom has receded somewhat over the last six months, and California is doing distinctly better on Covid than many other states. The booming economy probably doesn't harm him either.

    But it sure is interesting *if* he does get recalled. There are 24 Republicans on the ballot paper to replace him, and top of the list is Caitlyn Janner. When I say top of the list, I mean the first Republican on the list of fifty-odd names. Poll leader Larry Elder is buried in the middle. And, of course, poll leader is relative.

    Larry Elder has the support of 20% of people who expressed a preference in the polling. *BUT* the number of people who expressed a preference was only about 45% of respondents. Most Democrats shrugged their shoulders. But we aren't going to see more than half of recall voters leave the second question blank, so Mr Elder's true share is probably closer to 10%. This means that the next Governor race could be very interesting.

    Who's underrated in this race? Kevin Paffrath. He's the "YouTube influencer" who seems to be getting the most traction with Democrats. And because of the craziness of this election, he may only need to get the votes of one-in-three or one-in-four Democrats to win the Governorship.

    Edit to add: Paffrath has another advantage - there are only nine Democrats on the ballot, against 24 Republicans.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,197

    TimT said:

    One very interesting comparison between law and engineering I have noticed so far is how much more focused on individualism law is. In engineering it’s all about high performance teams and collaboration. Law seems very individual focussed - ‘my clients’, ‘my billable hours’, ‘my work’. Fascinating.

    Law will have to get over that eventually. It infected medicine, with the culture of specialists in the US. But now there is a trend back to 'total patient care' where the specialists actually act as a team, not independent disciplines.
    The legal profession has got over it. One person (usually a junior) to do the work, and a bunch of partners to reap the fat fees.
    LOL. Not sure that is my definition of a 'high performance team'.
  • How long before Fox gets the twitter ban hammer like that Milo guy.

    Not long.

    I know they've been purging a load of non blue tick accounts that have been engaging in Covid denialism.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    What the fuck?
  • Of all the developments on the ground in #Afghanistan over last few weeks, one that has gone under-reported and perhaps overlooked is the release of 1000's of prisoners - including high value AQ and IS operatives who are now walking free. #KabulَAirportexplosion

    https://twitter.com/NicolaCareem/status/1430949761620881408?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,118

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interestingly Bidens whole argument to pull out of Afghanistan was because there hadn’t been a terrorist threat for 20 years.

    And here we have ISIS-K (supposedly), looking to move in and fill a vacuum.

    He's been making the argument for a long time that the US invade + occupy project was a mistake and recent events don't on the face of it threaten this assessment. But we'll have to see how things pan out over the longer term.
    While I think Biden made a mistake, at least he's made it early.

    If Afghanistan ends in civil war, it absolutely sucks for Afghanis, but it also doesn't really cause that many problems for Americans. Indeed, civil war between the Taliban, the Taziks and IS means that a poverty stricken Afghanistan is inward looking and not going to be sponsoring terrorism any time soon.

    Much worse for Biden is a successful Taliban take over, and an implacably hostile Afghanistan which is stable enough to bring in inward investment.

    Right now, the former is looking more likely than the latter.
    There seems to be a general view that Biden hasn't a clue what he is doing. Much of this seems to be about his age.

    I would argue that it is too early to tell on his Afghan policy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,961
    Joyce Karam
    @Joyce_Karam

    JUST IN: Third Explosion near #Kabul airport, Afghan local media reporting.

    US deaths from first two is up to 10 troops, Fox reported. Many Afghan casualties. A grim day.


    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1430957612099592204
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    rcs1000 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is Biden going to do a press conference? 4 dead US Marines, surely he is going to have to speak to the nation?

    "President Biden huddled with his national security team at the White House on Thursday, getting updates about the explosions near the Kabul airport and what they might mean for the last days of the frantic evacuation effort underway in Afghanistan.

    White House officials said Mr. Biden was being briefed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, and other top aides."

    NYTimes live blog
    Is 'huddled' a euphemism for 'dozed'?
    Er, no.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,497

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    Unlike Hollande who is lucky to have avoided a handful of convictions
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,197
    Oh shit! It's official - I'm old. Just looked at the photo on the Beeb website and thought "What's a kid doing dressed up as a British soldier?"
  • rcs1000 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    What the fuck?
    He's someone who will not stop banging about wokeism, almost like the obsessive antiwokers are a bunch of complete tools.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,961

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    That's nonsense, though. Macron definitely has quite strong political convictions, most notably on his vision of building up the EU as a (French-led) counter to US and Chinese power.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,197
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    But Macron's own PR tells us he already knows everything.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,171

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,616
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    But Macron's own PR tells us he already knows everything.
    Sadly, I believe Macron has many convictions. I'd be keener on him if he was more as Hollande suggested.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,655
    edited August 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    Ed road tested the Edstone.... it worked well ;)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
    yeah right
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,325

    rcs1000 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    What the fuck?
    He's someone who will not stop banging about wokeism, almost like the obsessive antiwokers are a bunch of complete tools.
    Our very own Wokefinder General will be along soon to explain the error of your ways. Just as soon as he's finished writing some travel puff pieces knapping some flints.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,197
    kjh said:

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
    You don't?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,460

    Joyce Karam
    @Joyce_Karam

    JUST IN: Third Explosion near #Kabul airport, Afghan local media reporting.

    US deaths from first two is up to 10 troops, Fox reported. Many Afghan casualties. A grim day.


    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1430957612099592204

    Sky News putting it at 12 US troops killed, in their most recent update.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    There's probably a middleground to be reached between someone who cleaves too rigidly to their principles/convictions, or has shitty ones, and someone who is entirely without them. I think in political leaders whilst there are dangers to ideologues, a coherent vision grounded in at least a few convictions is probably not a bad thing.

    Nevertheless, it's what they do which is more important than why they do it, and an unprincipled sod could be just the right thing. Though you are, perhaps, a bit more likely to know what to expect from someone with some genuine principles.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,434

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
    yeah right
    As Malc would put it, SF and IRA - two cheeks of the same arse, with the IRA dominant for all those decades.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,193
    rpjs said:

    DeClare said:

    Monkeys said:

    LD on 14%?

    More surprising that the Greens are supposedly on 6% and one poll has them on 8%!
    In 2017 they got 1.6% and when many on the left were disillusioned with Corbyn they only crept up to 2.7%
    These figures are for England and Wales because there is a separate Green party in Scotland.
    Is that right? Surely the Scottish Greens are no different to Scottish Conservatives etc - same name, same party, same vote tally.
    IIRC the Scottish Greens are quite separate from the England and Wales Green Party. It's more akin to the LibDem/APNI relationship than Cons/SCons.
    The Scottish Greens mostly think the England Green leadership are a bunch of wankers as far as I can tell.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    Ed road tested the Edstone.... it worked well ;)
    Worth every penny it cost, I won't have a word said against it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,040
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    Ed road tested the Edstone.... it worked well ;)
    Worth every penny it cost, I won't have a word said against it.
    A massive tombstone, marking the grave of the Labour Party that died in 2015.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    Ed road tested the Edstone.... it worked well ;)
    To be fair the EdStone was genius in a way . So left field (literally as well). So ridiculous it was almost epic
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,325

    Joyce Karam
    @Joyce_Karam

    JUST IN: Third Explosion near #Kabul airport, Afghan local media reporting.

    US deaths from first two is up to 10 troops, Fox reported. Many Afghan casualties. A grim day.


    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1430957612099592204

    A terrible tragedy for those involved and their families.

    More prosaically, this could really hurt Biden. If he had completed the withdrawal with no US casualties I suspect it would have enhanced not hurt him politically. Today's events make put a whole differnet complexion on this withdrawal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,817
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    Ah, but with such politicians they don't do a test to find out what works best, but what polls best.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120

    IanB2 said:


    ISIS-K hates the Taliban.

    Indeed. The Taliban are seen as soft lefty liberals by the psycho fascists of the ISIS-K.
    As has been suggested elsewhere, the "threat" from Afghanistan is probably (hopefully) over stated.

    It's also often forgotten Iran and Afghanistan nearly went to war in 1998 so there's likely to be little love lost between Tehran and Kabul which will antagonise Iran-Pakistan relations as well.

    The Taliban now are the ones fighting the insurgencies whether in the Panjashir Valley or further afield. How stable the new regime is will depend, I suspect, on how much they row back from an extreme interpretation of Sharia law and customs to something recognisably Islamic but shorn of the excesses of their earlier incarnation and what we saw with ISIL (Daesh) in Iraq and Syria.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
    yeah right
    Not sure what that is difficult to believe. Extremist groups frequently split into yet more groups which often detest each other way more than what looks on paper like it should be their common enemy (look at some of the communist sub factions for a start). That's particularly so if they are contesting for a leadership role among a small pool of potential followers. Look at rebel groups unable to work together to defeat a dictator, tribes with a common language and culture fighting alone against Roman invaders, etc etc.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    DeClare said:

    Monkeys said:

    LD on 14%?

    More surprising that the Greens are supposedly on 6% and one poll has them on 8%!
    In 2017 they got 1.6% and when many on the left were disillusioned with Corbyn they only crept up to 2.7%
    These figures are for England and Wales because there is a separate Green party in Scotland.
    Is that right? Surely the Scottish Greens are no different to Scottish Conservatives etc - same name, same party, same vote tally.
    No, the Scottish Green Party is a completely separate legal entity from the Green Party of England and Wales, and the Green Party Northern Ireland.

    In contrast the Conservative and Unionist Party is the same legal entity throughout the UK. Labour used to be GB only, but I think is now UK. Lib Dems have a federal structure. All three use Scottish brands, but in reality are controlled from London.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,040

    Joyce Karam
    @Joyce_Karam

    JUST IN: Third Explosion near #Kabul airport, Afghan local media reporting.

    US deaths from first two is up to 10 troops, Fox reported. Many Afghan casualties. A grim day.


    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1430957612099592204

    A terrible tragedy for those involved and their families.

    More prosaically, this could really hurt Biden. If he had completed the withdrawal with no US casualties I suspect it would have enhanced not hurt him politically. Today's events make put a whole differnet complexion on this withdrawal.
    Yes, it was always going to be about how the days and weeks of the withdrawal played out. Today’s events were not particularly unexpected, obviously a negative for the politicians, as well as a tragedy for those directly involved and their families.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,325
    kjh said:

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
    No matter how small your grounds, you should always find room for a golf course.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,193
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the California recall:

    Well, the Democrats seem to be getting their arses into gear. Finally Los Angeles is full of "stop the Recall" posters. It may all be a little too late, but the Democrats finally seem to be getting organised. The way the election is organised probably favours the Dems somewhat: it's all postal, with every California voter having received two ballot papers: one on recall, and one on who gets the job if Newsom is recalled.

    My gut is that Newsom will survive the recall by around 53-47. While his opponents are well organised, the anger at Newsom has receded somewhat over the last six months, and California is doing distinctly better on Covid than many other states. The booming economy probably doesn't harm him either.

    But it sure is interesting *if* he does get recalled. There are 24 Republicans on the ballot paper to replace him, and top of the list is Caitlyn Janner. When I say top of the list, I mean the first Republican on the list of fifty-odd names. Poll leader Larry Elder is buried in the middle. And, of course, poll leader is relative.

    Larry Elder has the support of 20% of people who expressed a preference in the polling. *BUT* the number of people who expressed a preference was only about 45% of respondents. Most Democrats shrugged their shoulders. But we aren't going to see more than half of recall voters leave the second question blank, so Mr Elder's true share is probably closer to 10%. This means that the next Governor race could be very interesting.

    Who's underrated in this race? Kevin Paffrath. He's the "YouTube influencer" who seems to be getting the most traction with Democrats. And because of the craziness of this election, he may only need to get the votes of one-in-three or one-in-four Democrats to win the Governorship.

    Edit to add: Paffrath has another advantage - there are only nine Democrats on the ballot, against 24 Republicans.

    I've now confirmed the Newson team strategy is to tell people to leave the second question blank.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580
    Alistair said:

    rpjs said:

    DeClare said:

    Monkeys said:

    LD on 14%?

    More surprising that the Greens are supposedly on 6% and one poll has them on 8%!
    In 2017 they got 1.6% and when many on the left were disillusioned with Corbyn they only crept up to 2.7%
    These figures are for England and Wales because there is a separate Green party in Scotland.
    Is that right? Surely the Scottish Greens are no different to Scottish Conservatives etc - same name, same party, same vote tally.
    IIRC the Scottish Greens are quite separate from the England and Wales Green Party. It's more akin to the LibDem/APNI relationship than Cons/SCons.
    The Scottish Greens mostly think the England Green leadership are a bunch of wankers as far as I can tell.
    How could they possibly know as the green england leadership is in the middle of an election? There are about 12 candidates from memory (although some are job share).
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,855
    kle4 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    It takes a special kind of mind to link kneeling before games with a player being charge with rape, and to do so in a ridiculous way even for that sentiment.
    Aside from the obvious bellendry, he is actually deeply unintelligent.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,040
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the California recall:

    Well, the Democrats seem to be getting their arses into gear. Finally Los Angeles is full of "stop the Recall" posters. It may all be a little too late, but the Democrats finally seem to be getting organised. The way the election is organised probably favours the Dems somewhat: it's all postal, with every California voter having received two ballot papers: one on recall, and one on who gets the job if Newsom is recalled.

    My gut is that Newsom will survive the recall by around 53-47. While his opponents are well organised, the anger at Newsom has receded somewhat over the last six months, and California is doing distinctly better on Covid than many other states. The booming economy probably doesn't harm him either.

    But it sure is interesting *if* he does get recalled. There are 24 Republicans on the ballot paper to replace him, and top of the list is Caitlyn Janner. When I say top of the list, I mean the first Republican on the list of fifty-odd names. Poll leader Larry Elder is buried in the middle. And, of course, poll leader is relative.

    Larry Elder has the support of 20% of people who expressed a preference in the polling. *BUT* the number of people who expressed a preference was only about 45% of respondents. Most Democrats shrugged their shoulders. But we aren't going to see more than half of recall voters leave the second question blank, so Mr Elder's true share is probably closer to 10%. This means that the next Governor race could be very interesting.

    Who's underrated in this race? Kevin Paffrath. He's the "YouTube influencer" who seems to be getting the most traction with Democrats. And because of the craziness of this election, he may only need to get the votes of one-in-three or one-in-four Democrats to win the Governorship.

    Edit to add: Paffrath has another advantage - there are only nine Democrats on the ballot, against 24 Republicans.

    I've now confirmed the Newson team strategy is to tell people to leave the second question blank.

    LOL really? So if the recall does succeed, all the Dem activists in California will have voted for no-one?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,083
    edited August 2021
    How can you tell if Priti Patel is lying? She's either breathing and/or her mouth is moving.

    Priti Patel used incorrect data about illegal raves provided by the Met Police to justify emergency powers for police forces during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Mixmag can reveal.

    Introducing new powers for the police in an article for The Telegraph on August 28, 2020, the Home Secretary said: “In London alone, the Metropolitan Police has responded to more than 1,000 unlicensed events – such as big raves and parties – since the end of June, receiving information on more than 200 events across the city in a single weekend.

    “We will not allow this breathtakingly selfish behaviour from a senseless minority to jeopardise the progress we have made together.

    “That is why we are cracking down on the most serious breaches of social distancing restrictions.”

    An investigation by Mixmag has found that during this time The Met was using a flawed methodology to calculate the number of raves that it was responding to, which had the potential to dramatically inflate its statistics.

    Information obtained under the Freedom of Information Act has revealed that the figures published were actually the number of “messages” about illegal raves recorded on its “Computer Aided Dispatch” system rather than the number of confirmed unlicensed events.

    This means the Met could have counted individual events dozens or even hundreds of times in the numbers it published as well as including incidents that were not actually illegal raves.

    A separate CAD message is created every time the police are contacted and informed of a crime, so if more than 50 people report the same illegal rave the system creates more than 50 CAD messages for a single event.

    On 18 August 2021, in an emailed statement to Mixmag, the Met issued an apology for “confusion” over the statistics used by the Home Secretary.


    https://mixmag.net/feature/exclusive-priti-patel-incorrect-illegal-raves-data-emergency-powers-met-police
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,460

    kjh said:

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
    No matter how small your grounds, you should always find room for a golf course.
    Even if it's mini golf?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    Though I have always thought Boris Johnson's optimism was a good trait and a votewinner , i am not sure he is wise to say UK evacuations will continue (a lot of other countries have said they will now stop) . Sometimes you can not get everything your way and dont see a need to risk UK servicemen and diplomats in a highly dangerous situation anymore. If Boris insists maybe he needs to go over there
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,325
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That wound be fun….

    Présidentielle 2022: Michel Barnier va annoncer sa candidature à la primaire de la droite

    https://twitter.com/bfmtv/status/1430885855053312002?s=21

    I quite like M. Barnier - he was by far the pick of the EU negotiators and AIUI, was usually sober.
    So the French may have a choice between Macron and Barnier. Two serious, intelligent politicians (yes, I know there's Le Pen as well).

    We had a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. The USA had a choice between Trump and Biden. Methinks the quality of the field is somewhat higher in France.
    Francois Hollande commented on Macron today, saying that he is a political void without any convictions.
    I've never understood why that's a negative. My first rule of hiring is to find people who say:

    "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test to find out what will work best."

    I wish we had more politicians like that.
    For team members that's a good policy; for inspirational leaders, not so much.

    However you rank them, I doubt any of the top five PMs or Presidents would fit into the "I don't know the right answer. But I know how we can run a test" camp.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
    yeah right
    Not sure what that is difficult to believe. Extremist groups frequently split into yet more groups which often detest each other way more than what looks on paper like it should be their common enemy (look at some of the communist sub factions for a start). That's particularly so if they are contesting for a leadership role among a small pool of potential followers. Look at rebel groups unable to work together to defeat a dictator, tribes with a common language and culture fighting alone against Roman invaders, etc etc.
    I am afraid i am more cynical of this than you are
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,040

    How can you tell if Priti Patel is lying? She's either breathing and/or her mouth is moving.

    Priti Patel used incorrect data about illegal raves provided by the Met Police to justify emergency powers for police forces during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Mixmag can reveal.

    Introducing new powers for the police in an article for The Telegraph on August 28, 2020, the Home Secretary said: “In London alone, the Metropolitan Police has responded to more than 1,000 unlicensed events – such as big raves and parties – since the end of June, receiving information on more than 200 events across the city in a single weekend.

    “We will not allow this breathtakingly selfish behaviour from a senseless minority to jeopardise the progress we have made together.

    “That is why we are cracking down on the most serious breaches of social distancing restrictions.”

    An investigation by Mixmag has found that during this time The Met was using a flawed methodology to calculate the number of raves that it was responding to, which had the potential to dramatically inflate its statistics.

    Read this next: Dance 'Til The Police Come: How oppressive policing has eroded rave culture

    Information obtained under the Freedom of Information Act has revealed that the figures published were actually the number of “messages” about illegal raves recorded on its “Computer Aided Dispatch” system rather than the number of confirmed unlicensed events.

    This means the Met could have counted individual events dozens or even hundreds of times in the numbers it published as well as including incidents that were not actually illegal raves.

    A separate CAD message is created every time the police are contacted and informed of a crime, so if more than 50 people report the same illegal rave the system creates more than 50 CAD messages for a single event.

    On 18 August 2021, in an emailed statement to Mixmag, the Met issued an apology for “confusion” over the statistics used by the Home Secretary.


    https://mixmag.net/feature/exclusive-priti-patel-incorrect-illegal-raves-data-emergency-powers-met-police

    Wow, didn’t know that Mixmag now have investigative journalists. One learns something every day!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Alistair said:

    rpjs said:

    DeClare said:

    Monkeys said:

    LD on 14%?

    More surprising that the Greens are supposedly on 6% and one poll has them on 8%!
    In 2017 they got 1.6% and when many on the left were disillusioned with Corbyn they only crept up to 2.7%
    These figures are for England and Wales because there is a separate Green party in Scotland.
    Is that right? Surely the Scottish Greens are no different to Scottish Conservatives etc - same name, same party, same vote tally.
    IIRC the Scottish Greens are quite separate from the England and Wales Green Party. It's more akin to the LibDem/APNI relationship than Cons/SCons.
    The Scottish Greens mostly think the England Green leadership are a bunch of wankers as far as I can tell.
    That is actually a characteristic they do share.

    The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party mostly think the English Conservative leadership are a bunch of wankers.

    Scottish Labour mostly think the English Labour leadership are a bunch of wankers.

    The Scottish Liberal Democrat’s mostly think the English Lib Dem leadership are a bunch of wankers.

    They’re not wrong.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,872

    rcs1000 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    What the fuck?
    He's someone who will not stop banging about wokeism, almost like the obsessive antiwokers are a bunch of complete tools.
    Would a poster who admitted that his first reaction to that tweet was an INVOLUNTARY snort of appalled laughter, be liable to the ban hammer?

    AFAF
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,416

    kjh said:

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
    No matter how small your grounds, you should always find room for a golf course.
    Even if it's mini golf?
    The noblest version of the game, just as T20 is for cricket. Come on Hampshire (I’ve still not recovered from last night...)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    FlightRadar24 showing at least 8 military (6 US & 2 UK) aircraft heading for Kabul at the moment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367

    kle4 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    It takes a special kind of mind to link kneeling before games with a player being charge with rape, and to do so in a ridiculous way even for that sentiment.
    Aside from the obvious bellendry, he is actually deeply unintelligent.
    I feel like he enjoyed the initial attention he farnered for some blunt, but not very controversial comments, and let it get to his head in a big way. He could have carved out a niche and had a level of respect, but chasing that high from shocking people and being anti anything mainstream you can find was the path.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,817

    kjh said:

    Anyway coastguard helicopter circulating over us and air ambulance just landed on our golf course

    Hope everyone is OK

    You've got a golf course?
    No matter how small your grounds, you should always find room for a golf course.
    I was actually looking into what size room you would need for an indoor golf course simulator, unfortunately if it fits into properties in London much below £1m, it will generally only be in the biggest room. Aside from the space can be done fairly cheaply now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,717
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    It takes a special kind of mind to link kneeling before games with a player being charge with rape, and to do so in a ridiculous way even for that sentiment.
    Aside from the obvious bellendry, he is actually deeply unintelligent.
    I feel like he enjoyed the initial attention he farnered for some blunt, but not very controversial comments, and let it get to his head in a big way. He could have carved out a niche and had a level of respect, but chasing that high from shocking people and being anti anything mainstream you can find was the path.
    Its the new mid life crisis.....forget the penis extension sports car or the younger girlfriend, its the must get loads of attention on social media.

    Morgan, Lineker, Fox, they all do it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,083
    edited August 2021
    "There are 15 Champions League titles in Group B. None in Group A."

    The greatest and factual line in the history of sports journalism.

    https://twitter.com/atypicalbob/status/1430948316985102339
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,367

    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    To be fair, the UK and US authorities in Kabul have been warning people for two days to not go to the airport, because of the threat of an imminent terrorist attack.

    One quite fierce irony (if it is true, there is so much misleading news) is this: apparently the intel that warned the US and UK about the imminent ISIS attack came from..... The Taliban

    Which kinda makes sense. They would know
    yeah just like Sinn Fein could tell you when an IRA attack was to happen
    Sinn Fein and the IRA were the same organization. ISIS and the Taliban hate each other.
    yeah right
    Not sure what that is difficult to believe. Extremist groups frequently split into yet more groups which often detest each other way more than what looks on paper like it should be their common enemy (look at some of the communist sub factions for a start). That's particularly so if they are contesting for a leadership role among a small pool of potential followers. Look at rebel groups unable to work together to defeat a dictator, tribes with a common language and culture fighting alone against Roman invaders, etc etc.
    I am afraid i am more cynical of this than you are
    I don't know how much or if the two hate each other, but even if it's not as some others say, it still isn't analagous to SF and the IRA where the relationship was very obvious.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,580

    Though I have always thought Boris Johnson's optimism was a good trait and a votewinner , i am not sure he is wise to say UK evacuations will continue (a lot of other countries have said they will now stop) . Sometimes you can not get everything your way and dont see a need to risk UK servicemen and diplomats in a highly dangerous situation anymore. If Boris insists maybe he needs to go over there

    Have all the rescue dogs got out yet?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    In unsurprising news, Laurence Fox shows he's a complete bellend.

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1430921927586103306

    It takes a special kind of mind to link kneeling before games with a player being charge with rape, and to do so in a ridiculous way even for that sentiment.
    Aside from the obvious bellendry, he is actually deeply unintelligent.
    I feel like he enjoyed the initial attention he farnered for some blunt, but not very controversial comments, and let it get to his head in a big way. He could have carved out a niche and had a level of respect, but chasing that high from shocking people and being anti anything mainstream you can find was the path.
    Its the new middle aged mid life crisis.....forget the penis extension sports car or the younger girlfriend, its the must get loads of attention on social media.
    Viz did a fantastic fake advert a few months ago, aimed at wives and girlfriends trying to stop their midlife crisis partners from starting social media careers. Sometimes they catch the zeitgeist. (Ahem PBers.)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,153
    @tincanfield
    Cornwall residents have had more Covid cases since the start of July 2021 than they had in total before then.
This discussion has been closed.