My god, even the Grauniad is against Brexit! Who’d of thunk it. How many readers left now, three, four?
Like a scratched record. Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty and has a picture of an empty shelf surrounded by full ones.
From what i saw on Tuesday evening (the great bottled water heist - two women with an entire trolley full of bottled and nothing else) I wonder if the media stories aren't causing some shortages too, as per March 2020?
Hmm, I failed my 11+. The school appealed because I was clearly the top in my entire year group. It wasn't (with all due modesty) particularly close. The appeal was refused on the basis that I had failed so badly the appeal could not be allowed.
It would take a bit of persuading given my personal history to explain why grammar schools and the 11+ was or is a good idea.
Huh? How old are you David?? The 11+ was abolished in Scotland in the early 1960s. I certainly didn’t imagine you to be 70 years old! And still not retired?
I sat it in Germany in an Army school which operated under the English system but I don't think you can be right Stuart. When I went to Harris Academy in Dundee (which I left in 1977) my year was the first "comprehensive" year and the year above us had been selected on a grammar school basis. The school very much still had that grammar school ethos and performed really well academically.
- “In Scotland, the qualifying exam or "quali", similar to the English 11-plus, was abolished in 1957.”
I don’t think that article is correct. It would seem that from 1962 most schools started sitting the new Ordinaries, leading to the growth of ‘omnibus’ schools, but it wasn’t until 1965 that selection was recommended to be phased out, and not until 1981 that it was completed.
Ta. I googled like a Trojan last night, and got bloody nowhere. We need a comprehensive, readable history of Scottish education. The last comprehensive publication only covered the period from the Middle Ages to 1908.
Perhaps such a history could have the pages dealing with Curriculum for Excellence edged in black?
Do you seriously want Scotland not to develop a viable oilfield in the North sea creating over 1000 jobs and a badly needed income flow of tax revenues? It's a genuine question. The SNP slogan used to be "It's Scotland's Oil". And now they want to keep it in the ground so we can import it from elsewhere instead? I am genuinely bewildered by this.
Not keen on a party of government neither I nor my country voted for getting their palms greased by oil companies. Also not minded to take the views of folk who seven years ago were telling me ‘Scottish’ oil was finished too seriously on this issue.
But exploit or not exploit? Its a binary question.
Should my country and its government decide whether to exploit or let someone else decide? I know the wise and long sighted stewardship of North Sea oil over decades by HMG is persuasive..
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
We do not agree very often but your tone and argument have been well balanced this morning and I agree that Brexit seems to be part of the problem
I do not see any change in Brexit issues this side of GE24 but I do hope a closer relationship can evolve with the EU but not on the grounds we rejoin
In all this debate over staff shortages, little mention that there is way over a million people still on furlough, and realistically they don't actually have a job.
Sunak made a balls up leaving the scheme running over the summer.
Hmm, I failed my 11+. The school appealed because I was clearly the top in my entire year group. It wasn't (with all due modesty) particularly close. The appeal was refused on the basis that I had failed so badly the appeal could not be allowed.
It would take a bit of persuading given my personal history to explain why grammar schools and the 11+ was or is a good idea.
Huh? How old are you David?? The 11+ was abolished in Scotland in the early 1960s. I certainly didn’t imagine you to be 70 years old! And still not retired?
I sat it in Germany in an Army school which operated under the English system but I don't think you can be right Stuart. When I went to Harris Academy in Dundee (which I left in 1977) my year was the first "comprehensive" year and the year above us had been selected on a grammar school basis. The school very much still had that grammar school ethos and performed really well academically.
- “In Scotland, the qualifying exam or "quali", similar to the English 11-plus, was abolished in 1957.”
I don’t think that article is correct. It would seem that from 1962 most schools started sitting the new Ordinaries, leading to the growth of ‘omnibus’ schools, but it wasn’t until 1965 that selection was recommended to be phased out, and not until 1981 that it was completed.
Ta. I googled like a Trojan last night, and got bloody nowhere. We need a comprehensive, readable history of Scottish education. The last comprehensive publication only covered the period from the Middle Ages to 1908.
According to that book - which I will confess I got from a link on Wikipedia - it was a process that followed in step the one in England. However, it was less controversial in Scotland than in England both because of the accompanying exam reform and because there were large areas of the country that being thinly inhabited were effectively using a comprehensive system anyway. Which is why it was completed in Scotland by the early 1980s and has never been fully realised in England.
It is, as you say, surprising and a bit disappointing that only a brief article in a general reference book seems to cover it. Equally however the best commentary on secondary education in England since 1944 is to be found in a series of articles in the Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, which is about as arcane as you can get.
I used a similar example on here last time i waded into the debate and even after breaking it down some people still thought it showed my hyptohetical Grammar school setup where less children got to go to University was better for getting kids to Uni.
You can but try.
The fraction of Welsh students going to Oxbridge has steadily declined since the 1950s.
In fact, Wales now does worse than any area of England.
Now, there may well be other factors that influence this, but certainly the decline and abolition of the Welsh grammars schools is one. What replaced them in Wales was not as good.
And in fact, it is this that inspired the founder of the Sutton Trust, Peter Lampl to set it up.
"I went to dinner at my old college, Corpus Christi, which used to have lots of ordinary Welsh kids, many of them my best friends. I was told they weren't coming through any more."
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
The devastation of retail shopping has nothing to do with Brexit but everything to do with online shopping
MD of Iceland on R4 - Christmas supplies are at risk because of Brexit, a self inflicted wound by the government.
Interesting ; the delayed turkeys of Brexit seem to be coming home to roost, now that the pandemic is drifting slightly from the top of the news running orders.
Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty
Like I said, this guy clearly doesn't know as much as the PB brain trust...
Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-operative Group, said it was reducing some ranges as the industry’s ability to get food to shops was hit by post-Brexit migration rules and Covid-19.
“The shortages are at a worse level than at any time I have seen,” he said.
so he's not very good at his job then ?
I’m sure you’d do a better job mate. Please submit your CV.
Probably would. But I run manufacturing not retail and currently I dont have any supply shortages, delivery problems or skills shortages.
I know many people in manufacturing and delivery problems are very real so I don’t believe that one bit.
To be fair, just because one person or firm doesn't have any problems doesn't mean there aren't any. The opposite also applies. If one person or firm has problems doesn't mean everyone has.
You’re right. However the insinuation was that problems only exist because the Co op guy is shit at his job, which is of course ridiculous.
What is ridiculous is the over hyping of the issue. Of course there are issues with supplies right now. Not just in the UK though, not that anyone ever seems to think other countries ever have any problems. (Like when we have train crashes in the UK, people claim that our system has more than other countries, and thats just not true). If nothing else had happened in the world since March 2020 then it would be fair to pin all this on the 'self inflicted wound' of Brexit. But something else happened too, didn't it, something that has had a far greater impact on all our lives than Brexit.
To date I have seen no problem with getting food at my supermarket. Occasionally they are out of certain items. You know what - that used to happen before Brexit too...
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
The devastation of retail shopping has nothing to do with Brexit but everything to do with online shopping
So, what problems has Brexit caused?
The problems that Brexit has caused are too many to list. However, and this has been really pissing me off with my fellow remainers since before the referendum, it’s the wrong issue. Our side predicted the apocalypse. Wherever the problems that Brexit has caused the apocalypse hasn’t happened, what we have instead are a whole series of varying degrees of annoyance, from difficult pet passports to missing grated Parmesan. Starting with Osborne’s emergency budget through to mass unemployment we’ve been predicting doom but, while Brexit has been harmful, the only catastrophe has been Remainers expectation management and tactics since the start.
What we said since the start was that okay, the EU’s not great, but the alternative is far far worse, oh and the EU will punish us for leaving. Who the hell was ever going to vote for that prospectus? We should have been far more positive about our contribution, the future, and our plans to influence the bloc. Terrible, horrible, stupid politics - and we like to paint ourselves as the clever ones.
Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty
Like I said, this guy clearly doesn't know as much as the PB brain trust...
Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-operative Group, said it was reducing some ranges as the industry’s ability to get food to shops was hit by post-Brexit migration rules and Covid-19.
“The shortages are at a worse level than at any time I have seen,” he said.
so he's not very good at his job then ?
I’m sure you’d do a better job mate. Please submit your CV.
Probably would. But I run manufacturing not retail and currently I dont have any supply shortages, delivery problems or skills shortages.
I know many people in manufacturing and delivery problems are very real so I don’t believe that one bit.
To be fair, just because one person or firm doesn't have any problems doesn't mean there aren't any. The opposite also applies. If one person or firm has problems doesn't mean everyone has.
You’re right. However the insinuation was that problems only exist because the Co op guy is shit at his job, which is of course ridiculous.
What is ridiculous is the over hyping of the issue. Of course there are issues with supplies right now. Not just in the UK though, not that anyone ever seems to think other countries ever have any problems. (Like when we have train crashes in the UK, people claim that our system has more than other countries, and thats just not true). If nothing else had happened in the world since March 2020 then it would be fair to pin all this on the 'self inflicted wound' of Brexit. But something else happened too, didn't it, something that has had a far greater impact on all our lives than Brexit.
To date I have seen no problem with getting food at my supermarket. Occasionally they are out of certain items. You know what - that used to happen before Brexit too...
Wendover had a great video on this....because the world supply chain has been JITed to within an inch of its life, as we saw with Evergreen, one ship getting stuck has massive knock on effects. And in fsct, due to covid what has happened is containers are now all in the wrong parts of the world, ports are jammed up because of staffing issues and that they physically blocked up with metal cans thst they can't unload new ones, without shifting the empty ones that they can't get rid of because everything is out of sync.
Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty
Like I said, this guy clearly doesn't know as much as the PB brain trust...
Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-operative Group, said it was reducing some ranges as the industry’s ability to get food to shops was hit by post-Brexit migration rules and Covid-19.
“The shortages are at a worse level than at any time I have seen,” he said.
so he's not very good at his job then ?
I’m sure you’d do a better job mate. Please submit your CV.
Probably would. But I run manufacturing not retail and currently I dont have any supply shortages, delivery problems or skills shortages.
I don’t I’ve ever had a business without supply shortages, delivery problems or staffing & skills issues.
Indeed, it’s usually the case that I get them all at once.
If you don't have these things surely you are not pushing the business hard enough or maximising its potential? These are the parameters against which any manager works.
Have to disagree with you here David.
Businesses are like people - pushing too hard and 'maximising potential' is hard and can be risky.
Plodding along and slowly adapting to changes while making nice money and having a good time might not make you world beaters or 'maximise your potential' but it can be the best for all concerned.
I would just like to comment on @rcs1000 and @Northern_Al posts of last night. Covered what I was trying to say in numerous posts much much more sustintly.
With regard to Simpsons paradox I think you are right @rcs1000 HYUFD misuse of stats seems to be an example of this. Great example given also. Made much clearer than my explanation.
I had never heard of this before, although in my defence I did little stats at uni, instead focusing on logic.
This is the ‘hidden variable’ paradox, right? The example usually given is the university where men appeared to be more likely to be accepted than women; bring the hidden variable of subject into play and it was found that individual women were more likely to be accepted than individual men in both English and Engineering; it was just that English was hugely more popular than Engineering and both subjects had dramatically different gender-patterns of application. Thus overall women were less likely to be accepted, because they were mostly applying for English, rather than for being female.
I’m not sure how this relates to HY’s posts, which fail from a mixture of dishonesty (wanting the stats to prove his views) and ignorance (of statistics)?
Yes although I had never heard of it until Robert mentioned it. I looked it up and it specifically mentioned the example you give.
I don't think HYUFD is dishonest. He has a political philosophy and finds stats that support his view point as we all do. But when the stats are challenged instead of countering the argument or accepting it he ignores it and just keeps posting the same discredited stat. I genuinely don't think he understands when a logical or illogical counter argument is put. This is very unusual on this site. I can only think of one other off the top of my head, with which I lost it the other day, as you did with HYUFD in the past. It is not uncommon in real life though. Just think of the Jehovah Witnesses at the front door. Sadly it is impossible to have a rational argument with someone like this.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
The devastation of retail shopping has nothing to do with Brexit but everything to do with online shopping
To diehard remainers everything bad is due to brexit, to diehard brexiteers everything good is because of Brexit.
Brexit is not the issue. It's how the government has implemented it. Unsurprisingly, incompetent grifters like Johnson, Frost, Raab, Patel and co have done a very poor job and have created multiple problems that did not have to exist. The problems will persist because the same incompetent grifters are not capable of accepting the mistakes they have made.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
The devastation of retail shopping has nothing to do with Brexit but everything to do with online shopping
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
The bus nonsense was indicative of the atrocious Remain campaign. They should've argued about all the great stuff we got in return for the money rather than quibbling, as if £200m a week isn't very much. The economic side of things should've been a key strength of the Remain campaign, but they squandered it between the bus fixation on the one hand and, as you say, terrible expectations management by claiming the end of the world on the other.
The fact some Remainers seem to almost salivate at bad news for the UK isn't exactly an attractive look either.
Mr. Observer, both May and Johnson handled things very poorly.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
Mr. Dickson, I have a parish council. They don't run an independent health or education policy, can't affect income tax rates, and aren't responsible for policing.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
This is the issue with anecdotes. When it comes to the 'health' of an area wrt footfall, much depends on when you go - or for that matter, where you go.
I've often got to know new places by walking through them. However, I freely admit that I've got the wrong impression of them by taking the 'wrong' streets through them. returning later, going down another street gives a vastly different impression.
As for High Streets: their 'health' in terms of shops has been generally decreasing for a decade or more. As a country, we need to reevaluate the purpose of our town centres, and consider changing more retail into livable residential.
plans have been submitted to redevelop the old Debenhams in the centre of Leeds with student residential on all the upper floors. better than empty retail but there has been so much new student accommodation built here with more in the pipeline.
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
Isn't the issue partly that supermarkets are reducing the range of items, as an initial compensatory tactic? I am finding the selection markedly smaller on my online shopping: not sure if temporary shortages or outright deletions.
Overnight Australia has reported ~950 cases and NZ 62. In New Zealand's case they are saying that the growth is "not exponential". Chart from Our World in Data below which doesn't yet include today's data:
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty
Like I said, this guy clearly doesn't know as much as the PB brain trust...
Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-operative Group, said it was reducing some ranges as the industry’s ability to get food to shops was hit by post-Brexit migration rules and Covid-19.
“The shortages are at a worse level than at any time I have seen,” he said.
so he's not very good at his job then ?
I’m sure you’d do a better job mate. Please submit your CV.
Probably would. But I run manufacturing not retail and currently I dont have any supply shortages, delivery problems or skills shortages.
I know many people in manufacturing and delivery problems are very real so I don’t believe that one bit.
To be fair, just because one person or firm doesn't have any problems doesn't mean there aren't any. The opposite also applies. If one person or firm has problems doesn't mean everyone has.
You’re right. However the insinuation was that problems only exist because the Co op guy is shit at his job, which is of course ridiculous.
What is ridiculous is the over hyping of the issue. Of course there are issues with supplies right now. Not just in the UK though, not that anyone ever seems to think other countries ever have any problems. (Like when we have train crashes in the UK, people claim that our system has more than other countries, and thats just not true). If nothing else had happened in the world since March 2020 then it would be fair to pin all this on the 'self inflicted wound' of Brexit. But something else happened too, didn't it, something that has had a far greater impact on all our lives than Brexit.
To date I have seen no problem with getting food at my supermarket. Occasionally they are out of certain items. You know what - that used to happen before Brexit too...
Wendover had a great video on this....because the world supply chain has been JITed to within an inch of its life, as we saw with Evergreen, one ship getting stuck has massive knock on effects. And in fsct, due to covid what has happened is containers are now all in the wrong parts of the world, ports are jammed up because of staffing issues and that they physically blocked up with metal cans thst they can't unload new ones, without shifting the empty ones that they can't get rid of because everything is out of sync.
COVID has exposed the fragility of global supply chains. JIT only works in optimum conditions and most businesses that practise a JIT model have plenty of stock too. When I worked in production for a company supplying Toyota our business held three days stock for them as a contingency.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
Yes, that’s what I said. Saying the driver shortage is being caused by Brexit is untrue
"two women with an entire trolley full of bottled and nothing else."
Surely a piss-take? Most houses have two things called taps. When you turn on the one labelled 'cold' you receive a plentiful supply of the precious material. We are talking of water, aren't we?
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
America has been going isolationist for some time. It was Obama that pulled out of Iraq, didn't want to get involved in Syria and left Libya to us Europeans.
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
It would mean disrupting existing projects, because that money will only be very partiaL. Remember the Edinburgh Trams. Brought to you by the Tories (and tbf the other parties). Wrecked the Scottish transport investment strategy, including the A9 dualling.
Starts off with the flawed premise the shelves are empty
Like I said, this guy clearly doesn't know as much as the PB brain trust...
Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-operative Group, said it was reducing some ranges as the industry’s ability to get food to shops was hit by post-Brexit migration rules and Covid-19.
“The shortages are at a worse level than at any time I have seen,” he said.
so he's not very good at his job then ?
I’m sure you’d do a better job mate. Please submit your CV.
Probably would. But I run manufacturing not retail and currently I dont have any supply shortages, delivery problems or skills shortages.
I know many people in manufacturing and delivery problems are very real so I don’t believe that one bit.
To be fair, just because one person or firm doesn't have any problems doesn't mean there aren't any. The opposite also applies. If one person or firm has problems doesn't mean everyone has.
You’re right. However the insinuation was that problems only exist because the Co op guy is shit at his job, which is of course ridiculous.
What is ridiculous is the over hyping of the issue. Of course there are issues with supplies right now. Not just in the UK though, not that anyone ever seems to think other countries ever have any problems. (Like when we have train crashes in the UK, people claim that our system has more than other countries, and thats just not true). If nothing else had happened in the world since March 2020 then it would be fair to pin all this on the 'self inflicted wound' of Brexit. But something else happened too, didn't it, something that has had a far greater impact on all our lives than Brexit.
To date I have seen no problem with getting food at my supermarket. Occasionally they are out of certain items. You know what - that used to happen before Brexit too...
Very true! What is extraordinary about the current situation is the scale of the shortages both in breadth and depth. What is unique right now in the GB is the way that global patchy supply issues are so acute here and getting worse as the summer goes on.
Brexit isn't the cause of some of this (though it absolutely is the cause of a lot of it). Brexit is the *magnifier* of it. Driver shortage in Europe are not remotely on our scale. Supply crises a fraction of ours. Norther France can ship goods to southern France still unlike GB to NI. And we're not even half way through.
"See, no truck delays, you were lying" was the basic argument some have made against me. And yet traffic is nothing like what it was (a clue - a "vehicle move" doesn't count the same as it did when it had 32 mixed Euro pallets before with hundreds or thousands of different items and now doesn't). And we're still months away from implementing our trade deal where we start doing paperwork and physical checks at our not yet built Border Control Posts.
America has been going isolationist for some time. It was Obama that pulled out of Iraq, didn't want to get involved in Syria and left Libya to us Europeans.
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
England/the U.K. is struggling? Really? While I cleared my desk anticipating dealing with endless redundancies after furlough winds down what we have is a labour shortage, increasing wages, public borrowing halved since this time last year. As I said above, we’d be doing a lot better without Brexit, economically a dumb decision, but the idea that the country is “struggling” just allows Brexiteers to point to a comparative success.
Stick to Sweden. You know nothing about England. Save that you hate the place and it’s people.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
TBF Obama also withdrew from one of the Bush-Cheney wars (resulting in bits of the country getting taken over by ISIS), so it's not a fundamentally different policy direction. The difference was that Obama had to affect to think the Afghanistan one was a good idea so he could end the bigger Iraq one without looking like a peacenik.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
Which is what Isam said !
His inference was clear. "not caused by Brexit". This is cobblers. Brexit is causing significant problems. Its just not exclusively Brexit. If we were still in the EEA and CU then the impacts would be significantly less. The "its not Brexit" experts (cf @Alanbrooke attacking supermarket CEOs for not "securing their supply chain" of goods made by thousands of suppliers who in turn buy from tens of thousands of suppliers) are indignant that Brexit is not a problem and that its just shit management or remoaner lies.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
Why do you think England is struggling ?
Lots of houses being built, lots of restaurants being built, lots of industrial units being built.
What we have is a state of flux with some places doing well and others less so.
I used a similar example on here last time i waded into the debate and even after breaking it down some people still thought it showed my hyptohetical Grammar school setup where less children got to go to University was better for getting kids to Uni.
You can but try.
The fraction of Welsh students going to Oxbridge has steadily declined since the 1950s.
In fact, Wales now does worse than any area of England.
Now, there may well be other factors that influence this, but certainly the decline and abolition of the Welsh grammars schools is one. What replaced them in Wales was not as good.
And in fact, it is this that inspired the founder of the Sutton Trust, Peter Lampl to set it up.
"I went to dinner at my old college, Corpus Christi, which used to have lots of ordinary Welsh kids, many of them my best friends. I was told they weren't coming through any more."
Yes quite true, there used to be lots of Welsh grammar pupils at Oxford, Jesus College being a fine example now that number has declined significantly now there is not a single grammar school left in Wales.
Of course the trend is clear across the top jobs, 65% of senior Judges, 57% of the Cabinet, 52% of diplomats and junior ministers, 55% of top solicitors, 67% of British Oscar winners (Anthony Hopkins was a Welsh grammar school boy of course as was Richard Burton) and 61% of top doctors went to private school.
However never mind. I am sure kjh will be along soon with another 'stat' of impeccable 'logic' to show how brilliantly our comprehensives are doing at getting state educated pupils into the top jobs now most of the grammar schools have been scrapped
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
the weather's pretty similar as well....
Nope. The climate in Scotland and Sweden is surprisingly different. (Scotland and southern Sweden, where most people live, are at the same latitude.)
Sweden has longer, hotter, drier summers and longer, colder, drier winters. Springs and autumns in Sweden are incredibly short: it almost just flips over from winter to summer some years.
I prefer Swedish summers and winters, although ‘vargavintrar’ - wolf-winters - get a bit trying the final two months.
Overnight Australia has reported ~950 cases and NZ 62. In New Zealand's case they are saying that the growth is "not exponential". Chart from Our World in Data below which doesn't yet include today's data:
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
I terms of per capita cases Australia is now roughly where we were in May.
The lack of pragmatism in no 10 is exacerbating any Brexit issues . Why not just issue some temporary visas for EU lorry drivers to alleviate the situation. Of course though that highlights the stupidity of their immigration policy which isn’t based on what the economy needs but on a desperate continuing attempt to blame everything on covid and hope the public don’t realize .
When Leavers here say Remainers haven’t moved on this is the go to mantra to just avoid uncomfortable questions about Brexit.
The vast majority of Remainers have accepted that the UK is out and won’t be rejoining anytime soon , moving on doesn’t mean ignoring the consequences of the deal that no 10 signed upto .
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
Yes, that’s what I said. Saying the driver shortage is being caused by Brexit is untrue
The ability to deal with the driver shortage is being hampered by the Brexit strategy the government has chosen to pursue. Brexit is an abstract concept. What is not abstract is how it has been implemented.
And yet the JCVI are still dragging their heels....
My double jabbed twenty something nephew has just come down with Delta, while on exercises with the army. So far as I see the breakthrough cases don't seem to relate well to when vaccination took place. I think it more to do with viral load and exposure.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
America has been going isolationist for some time. It was Obama that pulled out of Iraq, didn't want to get involved in Syria and left Libya to us Europeans.
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
Yup, and it's not a recent thing either; What I think coverage like this misses is that the Bush-Cheney wars were an aberration; At least since Vietnam, the US has always preferred to stick to bombing and sponsored coups d'état, for good reason. It was just their misfortune that they had some extremely stupid people in charge when 9/11 hit.
Hmm, I failed my 11+. The school appealed because I was clearly the top in my entire year group. It wasn't (with all due modesty) particularly close. The appeal was refused on the basis that I had failed so badly the appeal could not be allowed.
It would take a bit of persuading given my personal history to explain why grammar schools and the 11+ was or is a good idea.
Huh? How old are you David?? The 11+ was abolished in Scotland in the early 1960s. I certainly didn’t imagine you to be 70 years old! And still not retired?
I sat it in Germany in an Army school which operated under the English system but I don't think you can be right Stuart. When I went to Harris Academy in Dundee (which I left in 1977) my year was the first "comprehensive" year and the year above us had been selected on a grammar school basis. The school very much still had that grammar school ethos and performed really well academically.
- “In Scotland, the qualifying exam or "quali", similar to the English 11-plus, was abolished in 1957.”
I don’t think that article is correct. It would seem that from 1962 most schools started sitting the new Ordinaries, leading to the growth of ‘omnibus’ schools, but it wasn’t until 1965 that selection was recommended to be phased out, and not until 1981 that it was completed.
Ta. I googled like a Trojan last night, and got bloody nowhere. We need a comprehensive, readable history of Scottish education. The last comprehensive publication only covered the period from the Middle Ages to 1908.
According to that book - which I will confess I got from a link on Wikipedia - it was a process that followed in step the one in England. However, it was less controversial in Scotland than in England both because of the accompanying exam reform and because there were large areas of the country that being thinly inhabited were effectively using a comprehensive system anyway. Which is why it was completed in Scotland by the early 1980s and has never been fully realised in England.
It is, as you say, surprising and a bit disappointing that only a brief article in a general reference book seems to cover it. Equally however the best commentary on secondary education in England since 1944 is to be found in a series of articles in the Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, which is about as arcane as you can get.
This reminds me of an elderly relative who was a teacher at the time in a High School in Lothian Region - always very resentful (like many of his colleagues) of George Foulkes, the present-day Lord Foulkes, whom he saw as driving through comprehensivisation (if that is a word!). This must have been in the 1970s (as Mr F was a cooncillor from 1970 to 1979, in Edinburgh and then Lothian, which took over education). It also hints that it perhaps happened at different paces in different council/Region areas.
He could always be wound up in later decades by referring to Lord Foulkes. I didn't do it very often, out of sheer decency.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
TBF Obama also withdrew from one of the Bush-Cheney wars (resulting in bits of the country getting taken over by ISIS), so it's not a fundamentally different policy direction. The difference was that Obama had to affect to think the Afghanistan one was a good idea so he could end the bigger Iraq one without looking like a peacenik.
It was of course Biden who implemented the US troops withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 and 3 years later ISIS returned and the US had to spent special forces back in and launch airstrikes to restore order again.
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
*If* that happens, then people will notice. But it may not happen: and if it does, the current furore about it may make it easier to ignore. The little-boy-who-cried-wolf effect.
It's not made easier by people (not on here) posting fake/untrue images of empty shelves.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
TBF Obama also withdrew from one of the Bush-Cheney wars (resulting in bits of the country getting taken over by ISIS), so it's not a fundamentally different policy direction. The difference was that Obama had to affect to think the Afghanistan one was a good idea so he could end the bigger Iraq one without looking like a peacenik.
And thinking about it Clinton was happy to get out of Somalia.
The true home of 'creating a liberal international order' / saving the world / Middle Eastern warmongering was the UK with Blair the wannabe Messiah and Cameron his chief acolyte.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
America has been going isolationist for some time. It was Obama that pulled out of Iraq, didn't want to get involved in Syria and left Libya to us Europeans.
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
Indeed, unless Mitt Romney becomes President in 2024 hard to see the US becoming more interventionist abroad again for at least a decade or two
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
*If* that happens, then people will notice. But it may not happen: and if it does, the current furore about it may make it easier to ignore. The little-boy-who-cried-wolf effect.
It's not made easier by people (not on here) posting fake/untrue images of empty shelves.
Even that is blurred by the supermarkets stocking fewer lines and spreading their shelf stacking to conceal gaps - so we have a real grey area there (works both ways).
Overnight Australia has reported ~950 cases and NZ 62. In New Zealand's case they are saying that the growth is "not exponential". Chart from Our World in Data below which doesn't yet include today's data:
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
In NZ they were initially hoping the outbreak would peak at 100 cases. A lot of cases are linked to a Samoan church gathering that saw people visiting from other churches and is linked to the spread to Wellington (someone flew there)
It is now whether they can limit to Auckland and Wellington (although that covers a large chunk of the population)
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
By the same token when people are constantly banging on about shortages in the shops and people’s lived experience is that this just isn’t the case, and that is certainly my experience, then it all comes over a bit ‘boy who cried wolf’.
That’s not to say there will not be an issue but when you keep hearing about it being a major problem and it just doesn’t seem to be what do you expect. Once again diehard FBPE remain are overplaying their hand.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
America has been going isolationist for some time. It was Obama that pulled out of Iraq, didn't want to get involved in Syria and left Libya to us Europeans.
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
Indeed, unless Mitt Romney becomes President in 2024 hard to see the US becoming more interventionist abroad again for at least a decade or two
I used a similar example on here last time i waded into the debate and even after breaking it down some people still thought it showed my hyptohetical Grammar school setup where less children got to go to University was better for getting kids to Uni.
You can but try.
The fraction of Welsh students going to Oxbridge has steadily declined since the 1950s.
In fact, Wales now does worse than any area of England.
Now, there may well be other factors that influence this, but certainly the decline and abolition of the Welsh grammars schools is one. What replaced them in Wales was not as good.
And in fact, it is this that inspired the founder of the Sutton Trust, Peter Lampl to set it up.
"I went to dinner at my old college, Corpus Christi, which used to have lots of ordinary Welsh kids, many of them my best friends. I was told they weren't coming through any more."
Yes quite true, there used to be lots of Welsh grammar pupils at Oxford, Jesus College being a fine example now that number has declined significantly now there is not a single grammar school left in Wales.
Of course the trend is clear across the top jobs, 65% of senior Judges, 57% of the Cabinet, 52% of diplomats and junior ministers, 55% of top solicitors, 67% of British Oscar winners (Anthony Hopkins was a Welsh grammar school boy of course as was Richard Burton) and 61% of top doctors went to private school.
However never mind. I am sure kjh will be along soon with another 'stat' to say how brilliantly our comprehensives are doing at getting state educated pupils into the top jobs now most of the grammar schools have been scrapped
Sweden doesn’t have grammar schools, yet funnily enough we manage to find good people to fill top jobs, judicial posts, diplomatic posts, solicitors, universities, doctors and winners of daft showbiz gongs. We even manage to find incorrupt and competent cabinet ministers.
How do we manage without grammar schools? It’s a mystery.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
Are Swedish high street shops in small towns 'booming'? Unless an experience shop which cannot be matched online I highly doubt it
The 'optics' of flying out a plane-load of animals whilst leaving desperate Afghans to be tortured and murdered will be distinctly sub-optimal. What the hell does the government think it's doing?
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
This is the issue with anecdotes. When it comes to the 'health' of an area wrt footfall, much depends on when you go - or for that matter, where you go.
I've often got to know new places by walking through them. However, I freely admit that I've got the wrong impression of them by taking the 'wrong' streets through them. returning later, going down another street gives a vastly different impression.
As for High Streets: their 'health' in terms of shops has been generally decreasing for a decade or more. As a country, we need to reevaluate the purpose of our town centres, and consider changing more retail into livable residential.
Especially as a lot of shops were converted from residential in the first place.
There's an arcade of shops leading down to South Woodford tube station. At ground level, all you see are large windows and displays. Look u to the first floor and beyond, and you see some fairly pleasant but undistinguished 1920s/1930s architecture. It would be easy to convert these to residential properties - though parking may be an issue.
My dad pointed this out to me when I lived in the student accommodation there back in '91. Since then, I've seen it everywhere: pleasant architecture hidden by awful shopfronts.
The key is to make the residential conversions liveable. IMO that requires a great deal of thought by developers *and* councils. What do people living in such accommodation want? In the case of South Woodford, with the tube station nearby, it might be very different from (say) Mansfield town centre.
And yet the JCVI are still dragging their heels....
My double jabbed twenty something nephew has just come down with Delta, while on exercises with the army. So far as I see the breakthrough cases don't seem to relate well to when vaccination took place. I think it more to do with viral load and exposure.
So superspreaders and superspreader events ?
Would that then suggest that picking up a few viral strands 'now and again' in everyday life might prime your immune system against Delta against a superspreader situation ?
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
Isn't the issue partly that supermarkets are reducing the range of items, as an initial compensatory tactic? I am finding the selection markedly smaller on my online shopping: not sure if temporary shortages or outright deletions.
Agreed- about 10-15% of my usuals coming up as out of stock, and 5% or so substitutions on the day. Far from the end of the world, but not the sign of a system running healthily.
And something like this was fairly predictable. In the SM, the invisible hand can act over the whole continent, balance out peaks and troughs and get things and people to where it's best for them to be. Post SM, the British invisible hand is in a much smaller box. Of course it can't do as much.
(Trouble is that once you accept that being in the SM means following the rules, I'm not sure that a big proud country like the UK is up for pay/obey/not much say. For a small proud country like Norway or Switzerland, it's different, because they didn't have much say to give up.)
And yet the JCVI are still dragging their heels....
There's a significant surge in our area which has prompted us to issue a warning to residents to maintain precautions. The source seems to be predominantly young people returning from music festivals with no attempt to avoid close contact. A lot of the cases are single-dose teenagers who reckoned that the risks were pretty low even though they'd not got round to the second dose yet.
This is all pretty silly. Double vaccinations continue to provide very strong protection. We really need a massive PR campaign across social media and every other source that young people may see to say that you can get really ill if you drop your guard before the second jab. I know that efforts are being made to get the message across but it's not being done with enough urgency. If we don't get on top of it we'll regret it as winter comes on.
I can't see any possibility of the Taliban extending the deadline. Why should they? As it is they are showing the world that the US has surrendered to them, and they can claim, with quite a lot of justification, that they have magnanimously kept to the agreed terms of the American surrender. They have lots of headstrong young men who want to get on with enjoying the sweets of victory, and plenty of scores to settle once the journalists have left. The West has nothing to offer them, or at least nothing that the West will be prepared to offer.
What utter tosh.
The taliban government needs sanctions lifted and funds unfreezed or there will be hundreds of thousands of starving Afghanis.
The Conservatives also won the popular vote in the 2019 election, however unless they get to about 36/37% of the vote the Liberals will still likely win most seats
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
By the same token when people are constantly banging on about shortages in the shops and people’s lived experience is that this just isn’t the case, and that is certainly my experience, then it all comes over a bit ‘boy who cried wolf’.
That’s not to say there will not be an issue but when you keep hearing about it being a major problem and it just doesn’t seem to be what do you expect. Once again diehard FBPE remain are overplaying their hand.
As I said above, it’s terrible politics, terrible expectation management. A series of annoyances. The other week Sainsbury’s near me hadn’t had a milk delivery. So I walked over the car park to M&S food and got some there. Annoying. Really annoying. Not the apocalypse. Yet the FBPE clowns are suggesting we are dying in the streets. And we wonder why we lost?
The whole story is absurd. The govt should put their foot down and say no animal cargo.
Agreed. It is ridiculous.
I gather the argument is that someone took a car out of Afghanistan by plane.
If so, that was a wrong decision and the people responsible should be fired. One bad decision should not be used to justify still more bad ones.
I don't see specifically why the cats need to be rehomed, they tend to be attached to territory rather than people; they're viewed positively in Islam and eating them is considered haram. I mean they're not going to be living a life as comfortable as my 4 but nor will any other animal in Afghanistan (As well as most of the people).
Overnight Australia has reported ~950 cases and NZ 62. In New Zealand's case they are saying that the growth is "not exponential". Chart from Our World in Data below which doesn't yet include today's data:
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
I terms of per capita cases Australia is now roughly where we were in May.
But with fewer vaccinations and far less acquired immunity.
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
Isn't the issue partly that supermarkets are reducing the range of items, as an initial compensatory tactic? I am finding the selection markedly smaller on my online shopping: not sure if temporary shortages or outright deletions.
Several things could feed into this: 1. Best way to manage uncontrolled shortages is to try and manage them - control what you short.Suppliers may have consolidated production down to fewer products 2. When you order online, you are reliant on the minimum wage spod going round the store picking from whatever is available at that time. It doesn't matter if you order in advance, they can only pick what is there to pick just as you can if you shop in person.
The whole story is absurd. The govt should put their foot down and say no animal cargo.
Agreed. It is ridiculous.
I gather the argument is that someone took a car out of Afghanistan by plane.
If so, that was a wrong decision and the people responsible should be fired. One bad decision should not be used to justify still more bad ones.
I don't see specifically why the cats need to be rehomed, they tend to be attached to territory rather than people; they're viewed positively in Islam and eating them is considered haram. I mean they're not going to be living a life as comfortable as my 4 but nor will any other animal in Afghanistan (As well as most of the people).
As a lifelong cat lover let us be clear: Unless people are literally hunting them cats will thrive in any circumstances and be just fine.
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
Isn't the issue partly that supermarkets are reducing the range of items, as an initial compensatory tactic? I am finding the selection markedly smaller on my online shopping: not sure if temporary shortages or outright deletions.
Agreed- about 10-15% of my usuals coming up as out of stock, and 5% or so substitutions on the day. Far from the end of the world, but not the sign of a system running healthily.
And something like this was fairly predictable. In the SM, the invisible hand can act over the whole continent, balance out peaks and troughs and get things and people to where it's best for them to be. Post SM, the British invisible hand is in a much smaller box. Of course it can't do as much.
(Trouble is that once you accept that being in the SM means following the rules, I'm not sure that a big proud country like the UK is up for pay/obey/not much say. For a small proud country like Norway or Switzerland, it's different, because they didn't have much say to give up.)
I think that you have put your finger on it - the 'usuals' being more often out of stock (if they haven't been deleted outright). I'm finding that in season stuff such as shallots and peas is flat out or at low levels (virtually out of date). Not the heat death of the cosmos, but for major supermarkets around a major city, it's not a great sign.
Interestingly Sainsburys have made it much harder to complain by deleting their email/complaint form facility (if they ever had one in the first place?) - now you have to phone or use Facebook or Twitter.
Overnight Australia has reported ~950 cases and NZ 62. In New Zealand's case they are saying that the growth is "not exponential". Chart from Our World in Data below which doesn't yet include today's data:
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
I terms of per capita cases Australia is now roughly where we were in May.
But with fewer vaccinations and far less acquired immunity.
And trying to make up for it with lockdowns.
Well both nations need to remain broadly locked down till they've vaccinated their over 50s. They're not there yet.
The 'optics' of flying out a plane-load of animals whilst leaving desperate Afghans to be tortured and murdered will be distinctly sub-optimal. What the hell does the government think it's doing?
It's not the government its a private charter - all the government is doing is trying to get a slot for it once the staff & cats & dogs have made it to the gate.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
Are Swedish high street shops in small towns 'booming'? Unless an experience shop which cannot be matched online I highly doubt it
Depends what you mean by “small”. My wife comes from a ‘bruksort’ - roughly translates to “mill-town” or “factory-town”; commonly ironworks, paper, glass, furniture, floor coverings and thousands of varied, small businesses. These are very prolific throughout the country and generally very small, under 10,000 people. If the local company or companies do well, the town does well. In her case all three of the big companies and most of the little ones, didn’t do well, so it has suffered drastic population drop since the 1970s. Others are booming, along with the bigger towns and cities, despite online shopping.
The 'optics' of flying out a plane-load of animals whilst leaving desperate Afghans to be tortured and murdered will be distinctly sub-optimal. What the hell does the government think it's doing?
What the hell do people think they are doing asking the government to prioritise animals over people? Even the Taliban aren't going to execute donkeys for collaboration.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
Yesterday was my first visit to a Scottish city since autumn 2019. (Although I’ve been here since the beginning of the month I’ve been only in the rural west highlands, which is stowed out by the way, and even more stunningly gorgeous than ever, if you can get away from the gawkers.)
Perth was like a ghost town yesterday. My family blamed the good weather, so that might be an explanation. But the lack of Homo sapiens was not actually the prime problem, it was the urban decay. Absolutely tragic. You’re maybe like a frog in slowly warming water David: the changes are so incremental you don’t notice. Yesterday for me was an epiphany: Brexit has fucked the country.
Ok, if it was the first time in a while I could see why the decline would be more obvious. But these trends have very little or anything to do with Brexit and a lot more to do with the Amazon warehouses in Dunfermline and Glenrothes.
Wrong.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
A lot of smaller towns in England are also losing shops. A lot is from the effect of Amazon, whose good service hides a lot of exploitative practices on suppliers, workers and tax payers.
England has had independence, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is struggling. Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming. Spot the difference.
Are Swedish high street shops in small towns 'booming'? Unless an experience shop which cannot be matched online I highly doubt it
Swedish small towns have seen supermarkets close at a huge rate which is why Livfs, digital supermarkets with no staff, have stepped in to fill the gap.
The 'optics' of flying out a plane-load of animals whilst leaving desperate Afghans to be tortured and murdered will be distinctly sub-optimal. What the hell does the government think it's doing?
It's not the government its a private charter - all the government is doing is trying to get a slot for it once the staff & cats & dogs have made it to the gate.
Yeah, well they should tell them there are no slots available because they are all needed for the desperate people we're trying to get out.
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
By the same token when people are constantly banging on about shortages in the shops and people’s lived experience is that this just isn’t the case, and that is certainly my experience, then it all comes over a bit ‘boy who cried wolf’.
That’s not to say there will not be an issue but when you keep hearing about it being a major problem and it just doesn’t seem to be what do you expect. Once again diehard FBPE remain are overplaying their hand.
As I said above, it’s terrible politics, terrible expectation management. A series of annoyances. The other week Sainsbury’s near me hadn’t had a milk delivery. So I walked over the car park to M&S food and got some there. Annoying. Really annoying. Not the apocalypse. Yet the FBPE clowns are suggesting we are dying in the streets. And we wonder why we lost?
I think the point is it's more that it shouldn't even be happening at all. And if the system is stressed much more, other things will give quite quickly.
CNN: While President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops by August 31 is inevitable, the speed at which the situation descended into chaos, and the White House's lack of contrition and flexibility has left allies spinning.
As America's allies -- most notably in Europe -- see it the United States is walking away, washing its hands of a crisis it played a large part in creating, and with scant regard for the problems that doing so creates elsewhere.
“To me, this shows is the end of one geopolitical era, which was about creating a liberal international order, and the beginning of a new one, which is about the competition between China and America," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
[David Lidington adds:] “One of the consequences of the defeat in Afghanistan is the lack of confidence in the West, which can only be a good thing for China and Russia who can offer their support with zero regard for rule of law or human rights,"
The reputational cost to the West of what's happening in Afghanistan won't be fully known for some time. What is clear for now is that if America's allies want the option to serve their own interests globally, they need to accept that as things stand, they are inadequate. That means countries that have for so long relied on the stability of the US commitment to promoting Western values will need to rethink their foreign policy.
The cognitive dissonance is because it is the Democrats doing this.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
TBF Obama also withdrew from one of the Bush-Cheney wars (resulting in bits of the country getting taken over by ISIS), so it's not a fundamentally different policy direction. The difference was that Obama had to affect to think the Afghanistan one was a good idea so he could end the bigger Iraq one without looking like a peacenik.
And thinking about it Clinton was happy to get out of Somalia.
The true home of 'creating a liberal international order' / saving the world / Middle Eastern warmongering was the UK with Blair the wannabe Messiah and Cameron his chief acolyte.
Bush was very happy to join Blair on that. Sarkozy also linked with Cameron on Libya.
There was a time when the Democrats were very happy to fight for liberty and freedom around the world too, think JFK 'Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
Reagan and Thatcher too were equally willing to push a strong West to take on the Soviet Union. Bush Snr and Major ran a successful Gulf War in 1990 too with a big global coalition.
Now the Democrats have become more and more isolationist and ended up with Biden who is little different to the most isolationist of Republicans like Pat Buchanan, indeed JFK's speech could now be changed under Biden to ''Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay no price, bear no burden, meet no hardship, support no friend, oppose no foe, in order to assure the destruction and decline of liberty."
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
Yes, that’s what I said. Saying the driver shortage is being caused by Brexit is untrue
Bullshit. The driver shortage is absolutely being caused by Brexit! And Covid. And IR35. It is all of them. To say "not Brexit" as you just have is absolute delusion.
I have already given two examples which are Brexit and nothing else: 1 EU drivers who have gone home (along with EU factory workers) - a big shortage in available labour despite the higher than expected numbers staying (ergo the official numbers of EU residents in the UK was a big under-read) 2 EU drivers not bringing goods across the border then doing cabotage pick up / drop off jobs up and down the country
If we didn't have Brexit then IR35 would have briefly priced some drivers out (already reversed by rapid pay rises) and we would have a small shortage of drivers where people have retired / left and there hasn't been training of new due to Covid. Like the rest of Europe. Our massive problem is unique, and its massive because of Brexit.
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
I was in Perth last weekend and it was bustling. Like Dundee the loss of Debenhams is a major blow, especially after the loss of McEwans a few years ago now, but there is plenty of money in Perth and the shops seem to be doing fine. Dundee has much more of a problem with the Overgate centre.
This is the issue with anecdotes. When it comes to the 'health' of an area wrt footfall, much depends on when you go - or for that matter, where you go.
I've often got to know new places by walking through them. However, I freely admit that I've got the wrong impression of them by taking the 'wrong' streets through them. returning later, going down another street gives a vastly different impression.
As for High Streets: their 'health' in terms of shops has been generally decreasing for a decade or more. As a country, we need to reevaluate the purpose of our town centres, and consider changing more retail into livable residential.
plans have been submitted to redevelop the old Debenhams in the centre of Leeds with student residential on all the upper floors. better than empty retail but there has been so much new student accommodation built here with more in the pipeline.
My granddaughter takes up hers next week in Leeds complete with en suite bedroom
A lot of empty shelves in Tesco yesterday. When I asked a member of staff why, she blamed the shortage of drivers. Which is caused by Brexit.
Perth High Street is like something out of the apocalypse. Quite unnerving for someone familiar with the bustling, young, joyful affluence of Scandinavian cities. I’ve witnessed that High Street declining for three decades, but yesterday was a step-change. It must be soul-destroying for the few staff left manning those deserted retail spaces. Costa coffee looked like something out of a war zone.
“ Which is caused by Brexit.”
Simply untrue. There is a 100,00 shortfall of which 14,000 is claimed to be due to Brexit
It is simply untrue that it is simply untrue. Brexit means a lack of EU trucks coming acxross with stuff. That truck and that drivers would pick up and drop off in both directions between the channel and their final destination. Not being there means a UK truck and driver has to be found for the pick up and drop off work and we have a shortage of vehicles and drivers.
Its not ALL down to Brexit. But its not all NOT down to Brexit.
Which is what Isam said !
His inference was clear. "not caused by Brexit". This is cobblers. Brexit is causing significant problems. Its just not exclusively Brexit. If we were still in the EEA and CU then the impacts would be significantly less. The "its not Brexit" experts (cf @Alanbrooke attacking supermarket CEOs for not "securing their supply chain" of goods made by thousands of suppliers who in turn buy from tens of thousands of suppliers) are indignant that Brexit is not a problem and that its just shit management or remoaner lies.
This is not true...
It’s not caused by Brexit. The shortfall is 100,000 and Brexit is blamed for 14,000. How can providing the numbers be inferring one thing or another? Crazy
There truly is some absolutist bollocks spoken when it comes to Brexit and the battleground seems to be shortages. It is a demonstrable fact that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain. Uncontrolled means that finding a fully stocked supermarket does not in any way disprove that it exists - it is simply what "uncontrolled" means. So Brexiteer sneering of "my shelves are full so its a remoaner lie" demonstrates their personal stupidity.
Why this is happening is multi-faceted. There are *global* supply shortages of all kinds of things. As we are once again talking grocery I know of grossly extended lead times on everything from staple ingredients to cardboard impacting producers in the EU. So the pressure on the UK supply chain is not entirely brexit related and trying to claim it is demonstrates the personal stupidity of the #FBPE person.
Here is the problem. The impacts are worse - a lot worse - in the UK. We haven't yet implemented the bulk of our new trading arrangements between GB and the EU. There is a calm before the storm as full paperwork and standards checks kick in. Not that we have bothered with the infrastructure needed to carry out these checks at our border control posts.
We already have a big reduction in GB - EU traffic with ROI/NI now bypassing GB and so many EU hauliers simply refusing (or pricing themselves out of contention) to come to the GB. Which adds throttling of capacity and thus supply problems on top of the global ones. Then you add on the EU vehicles which are not in the UK making drops to and from their final destination which creates a shortage of both vehicles and drivers. Then you add on the EU workforce who aren't here any more (despite more people registering to stay than expected there is now a big shortage - how many people were here...?)
Is all of this down to brexit? Of course not - Covid and IR35 add to the problems. But we now have a major structural problem which we're about to make worse and there is absolute denial from the Brexit/Tory voters that is Brexit related. Unlike the PB loons who insist there are no shortages most people have eyes and a brain. But they blame 100% Covid.
We will find out...
It may be a 'demonstrable fact' that we are suffering uncontrolled shortages in the UK supply chain: it's just that many of us are not seeing much sign of it in the shops. I've just been in my local Co-Op; one empty shelf (the 'sales' shelf which is often empty), and none of my favourite lemon yoghurts - which they often didn't have anyway. There was plenty of the short shelf-life items I'd expect to have shortages of first, such as fruit and bread.
The only thing of note was that two of the three local petrol stations were out of fuel a few weeks ago (and before you say 'absolutist bollocks' to me, I mentioned that on here).
That's the problem with trying to make this into a big issue: if people don't see much of a change (perhaps due to brilliant work by the supermarkets and distributors to shuffle things around), then it just seems like people screeching at the skies for political reasons.
It'l become a political issue if people really start noticing shortages. And at the moment, much of the anecdata on shortages appears to follow political lines. Remainers are seeing thousands of empty shelves and Russian-style queues of starving children; Brexiteers are seeing shops full of bounty and goodness. The rest of us just go 'Meh.'
I hear you - I did call bollocks at the #FBPE crown. But then we're back to reality. "I haven't seen shortages so there are no shortages". Which means the cause of the shortages is left to get worse until we actually DO call the 2,000 army drivers to try and fill the 100,000 shortage of drivers. Which is an extraordinary thing for the government to do and doesn't work.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
Isn't the issue partly that supermarkets are reducing the range of items, as an initial compensatory tactic? I am finding the selection markedly smaller on my online shopping: not sure if temporary shortages or outright deletions.
Agreed- about 10-15% of my usuals coming up as out of stock, and 5% or so substitutions on the day. Far from the end of the world, but not the sign of a system running healthily.
And something like this was fairly predictable. In the SM, the invisible hand can act over the whole continent, balance out peaks and troughs and get things and people to where it's best for them to be. Post SM, the British invisible hand is in a much smaller box. Of course it can't do as much.
(Trouble is that once you accept that being in the SM means following the rules, I'm not sure that a big proud country like the UK is up for pay/obey/not much say. For a small proud country like Norway or Switzerland, it's different, because they didn't have much say to give up.)
Au contraire, when we were in the EU we had a lot of say, one of the big 4, if we didn't want it to happen it usually meant it didn't, if we did, it usually did.
The lack of pragmatism in no 10 is exacerbating any Brexit issues . Why not just issue some temporary visas for EU lorry drivers to alleviate the situation. Of course though that highlights the stupidity of their immigration policy which isn’t based on what the economy needs but on a desperate continuing attempt to blame everything on covid and hope the public don’t realize .
When Leavers here say Remainers haven’t moved on this is the go to mantra to just avoid uncomfortable questions about Brexit.
The vast majority of Remainers have accepted that the UK is out and won’t be rejoining anytime soon , moving on doesn’t mean ignoring the consequences of the deal that no 10 signed upto .
Even if you don't want to issue work visas, simply allow cabotage. That would help alleviate the worst of the problems and make EU to GB haulage worth doing for many of the firms who have now stopped.
The story's a bit misleading, as I understand it (I have a colleague who is close to it). The charity is trying to ship out the animals to a more local destination using a chartered commercial flight - the only Government aid for that would be to allow it to land and take off. The vets and nurses are seeking to return to Britain, just like other Brits and associates.
I used a similar example on here last time i waded into the debate and even after breaking it down some people still thought it showed my hyptohetical Grammar school setup where less children got to go to University was better for getting kids to Uni.
You can but try.
The fraction of Welsh students going to Oxbridge has steadily declined since the 1950s.
In fact, Wales now does worse than any area of England.
Now, there may well be other factors that influence this, but certainly the decline and abolition of the Welsh grammars schools is one. What replaced them in Wales was not as good.
And in fact, it is this that inspired the founder of the Sutton Trust, Peter Lampl to set it up.
"I went to dinner at my old college, Corpus Christi, which used to have lots of ordinary Welsh kids, many of them my best friends. I was told they weren't coming through any more."
Yes quite true, there used to be lots of Welsh grammar pupils at Oxford, Jesus College being a fine example now that number has declined significantly now there is not a single grammar school left in Wales.
Of course the trend is clear across the top jobs, 65% of senior Judges, 57% of the Cabinet, 52% of diplomats and junior ministers, 55% of top solicitors, 67% of British Oscar winners (Anthony Hopkins was a Welsh grammar school boy of course as was Richard Burton) and 61% of top doctors went to private school.
However never mind. I am sure kjh will be along soon with another 'stat' to say how brilliantly our comprehensives are doing at getting state educated pupils into the top jobs now most of the grammar schools have been scrapped
Sweden doesn’t have grammar schools, yet funnily enough we manage to find good people to fill top jobs, judicial posts, diplomatic posts, solicitors, universities, doctors and winners of daft showbiz gongs. We even manage to find incorrupt and competent cabinet ministers.
How do we manage without grammar schools? It’s a mystery.
Germany does have grammar schools called gymnasiums and also manages to find all of the above.
However neither have British, Anglosphere style public schools, so without grammar school competition the public schools are back on top again in terms of the top jobs
Comments
I do not see any change in Brexit issues this side of GE24 but I do hope a closer relationship can evolve with the EU but not on the grounds we rejoin
Sunak made a balls up leaving the scheme running over the summer.
It is, as you say, surprising and a bit disappointing that only a brief article in a general reference book seems to cover it. Equally however the best commentary on secondary education in England since 1944 is to be found in a series of articles in the Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, which is about as arcane as you can get.
The fraction of Welsh students going to Oxbridge has steadily declined since the 1950s.
In fact, Wales now does worse than any area of England.
Now, there may well be other factors that influence this, but certainly the decline and abolition of the Welsh grammars schools is one. What replaced them in Wales was not as good.
And in fact, it is this that inspired the founder of the Sutton Trust, Peter Lampl to set it up.
"I went to dinner at my old college, Corpus Christi, which used to have lots of ordinary Welsh kids, many of them my best friends. I was told they weren't coming through any more."
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2007/mar/27/schools.uk
https://twitter.com/Paul1Singh/status/1430435478122160128?s=20
To date I have seen no problem with getting food at my supermarket. Occasionally they are out of certain items. You know what - that used to happen before Brexit too...
I gather the argument is that someone took a car out of Afghanistan by plane.
If so, that was a wrong decision and the people responsible should be fired. One bad decision should not be used to justify still more bad ones.
Online shopping is *far* more established and universal in Sweden than in Scotland. Yet Swedish cities and large towns are absolutely buzzing. The good-times vibe is palpable. In fact, I find all those young, happy, affluent Scandinavians so disconcerting that I avoid city centres. Call me a misanthrope. You’d probably be right.
Scotland has had the Union, Brexit, Covid and online shopping. The place is totally fucked.
Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming.
Spot the difference.
What we said since the start was that okay, the EU’s not great, but the alternative is far far worse, oh and the EU will punish us for leaving. Who the hell was ever going to vote for that prospectus? We should have been far more positive about our contribution, the future, and our plans to influence the bloc. Terrible, horrible, stupid politics - and we like to paint ourselves as the clever ones.
Businesses are like people - pushing too hard and 'maximising potential' is hard and can be risky.
Plodding along and slowly adapting to changes while making nice money and having a good time might not make you world beaters or 'maximise your potential' but it can be the best for all concerned.
I don't think HYUFD is dishonest. He has a political philosophy and finds stats that support his view point as we all do. But when the stats are challenged instead of countering the argument or accepting it he ignores it and just keeps posting the same discredited stat. I genuinely don't think he understands when a logical or illogical counter argument is put. This is very unusual on this site. I can only think of one other off the top of my head, with which I lost it the other day, as you did with HYUFD in the past. It is not uncommon in real life though. Just think of the Jehovah Witnesses at the front door. Sadly it is impossible to have a rational argument with someone like this.
Then people will notice. Just because it hasn't significantly impacted Jim from Barnsley yet doesn't mean that it won't.
The bus nonsense was indicative of the atrocious Remain campaign. They should've argued about all the great stuff we got in return for the money rather than quibbling, as if £200m a week isn't very much. The economic side of things should've been a key strength of the Remain campaign, but they squandered it between the bus fixation on the one hand and, as you say, terrible expectations management by claiming the end of the world on the other.
The fact some Remainers seem to almost salivate at bad news for the UK isn't exactly an attractive look either.
Mr. Observer, both May and Johnson handled things very poorly.
Sweden has had independence, Covid and online shopping. The place is booming.
Spot the difference.
If Trump had done so it may have been expected but Biden was supposed to be a return to the Obama era.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-06-06..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=AUS~NZL
NSW is very deliberately saying that Zero Covid is now impossible. NZ is still aiming for that and we will know in the next 2 weeks if it is possible for them in the medium term. In the long term it is impossible unless they want to permanently cut themselves off from the world.
"two women with an entire trolley full of bottled and nothing else."
Surely a piss-take? Most houses have two things called taps. When you turn on the one labelled 'cold' you receive a plentiful supply of the precious material. We are talking of water, aren't we?
There is a continuity of foreign policy between Obama, Trump and Biden that both Red and Blue Americans might find uncomfortable. America is not interested in foreign enemies any more, both sides are concentrating on their internal foes.
Brexit isn't the cause of some of this (though it absolutely is the cause of a lot of it). Brexit is the *magnifier* of it. Driver shortage in Europe are not remotely on our scale. Supply crises a fraction of ours. Norther France can ship goods to southern France still unlike GB to NI. And we're not even half way through.
"See, no truck delays, you were lying" was the basic argument some have made against me. And yet traffic is nothing like what it was (a clue - a "vehicle move" doesn't count the same as it did when it had 32 mixed Euro pallets before with hundreds or thousands of different items and now doesn't). And we're still months away from implementing our trade deal where we start doing paperwork and physical checks at our not yet built Border Control Posts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58322882
And yet the JCVI are still dragging their heels....
Stick to Sweden. You know nothing about England. Save that you hate the place and it’s people.
This is not true...
Lots of houses being built, lots of restaurants being built, lots of industrial units being built.
What we have is a state of flux with some places doing well and others less so.
Of course the trend is clear across the top jobs, 65% of senior Judges, 57% of the Cabinet, 52% of diplomats and junior ministers, 55% of top solicitors, 67% of British Oscar winners (Anthony Hopkins was a Welsh grammar school boy of course as was Richard Burton) and 61% of top doctors went to private school.
However never mind. I am sure kjh will be along soon with another 'stat' of impeccable 'logic' to show how brilliantly our comprehensives are doing at getting state educated pupils into the top jobs now most of the grammar schools have been scrapped
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48745333
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-35641061
Sweden has longer, hotter, drier summers and longer, colder, drier winters. Springs and autumns in Sweden are incredibly short: it almost just flips over from winter to summer some years.
I prefer Swedish summers and winters, although ‘vargavintrar’ - wolf-winters - get a bit trying the final two months.
I prefer Scottish springs and autumns.
When Leavers here say Remainers haven’t moved on this is the go to mantra to just avoid uncomfortable questions about Brexit.
The vast majority of Remainers have accepted that the UK is out and won’t be rejoining anytime soon , moving on doesn’t mean ignoring the consequences of the deal that no 10 signed upto .
The Dover-Calais thing is starting to make sense
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1430441866407911430
He could always be wound up in later decades by referring to Lord Foulkes. I didn't do it very often, out of sheer decency.
It's not made easier by people (not on here) posting fake/untrue images of empty shelves.
The true home of 'creating a liberal international order' / saving the world / Middle Eastern warmongering was the UK with Blair the wannabe Messiah and Cameron his chief acolyte.
https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1430278164148891650?s=20
It is now whether they can limit to Auckland and Wellington (although that covers a large chunk of the population)
That’s not to say there will not be an issue but when you keep hearing about it being a major problem and it just doesn’t seem to be what do you expect. Once again diehard FBPE remain are overplaying their hand.
How do we manage without grammar schools? It’s a mystery.
My dad pointed this out to me when I lived in the student accommodation there back in '91. Since then, I've seen it everywhere: pleasant architecture hidden by awful shopfronts.
The key is to make the residential conversions liveable. IMO that requires a great deal of thought by developers *and* councils. What do people living in such accommodation want? In the case of South Woodford, with the tube station nearby, it might be very different from (say) Mansfield town centre.
Would that then suggest that picking up a few viral strands 'now and again' in everyday life might prime your immune system against Delta against a superspreader situation ?
And something like this was fairly predictable. In the SM, the invisible hand can act over the whole continent, balance out peaks and troughs and get things and people to where it's best for them to be. Post SM, the British invisible hand is in a much smaller box. Of course it can't do as much.
(Trouble is that once you accept that being in the SM means following the rules, I'm not sure that a big proud country like the UK is up for pay/obey/not much say. For a small proud country like Norway or Switzerland, it's different, because they didn't have much say to give up.)
This is all pretty silly. Double vaccinations continue to provide very strong protection. We really need a massive PR campaign across social media and every other source that young people may see to say that you can get really ill if you drop your guard before the second jab. I know that efforts are being made to get the message across but it's not being done with enough urgency. If we don't get on top of it we'll regret it as winter comes on.
And trying to make up for it with lockdowns.
1. Best way to manage uncontrolled shortages is to try and manage them - control what you short.Suppliers may have consolidated production down to fewer products
2. When you order online, you are reliant on the minimum wage spod going round the store picking from whatever is available at that time. It doesn't matter if you order in advance, they can only pick what is there to pick just as you can if you shop in person.
Brexiteers continue to deny reality
Interestingly Sainsburys have made it much harder to complain by deleting their email/complaint form facility (if they ever had one in the first place?) - now you have to phone or use Facebook or Twitter.
There was a time when the Democrats were very happy to fight for liberty and freedom around the world too, think JFK 'Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
Reagan and Thatcher too were equally willing to push a strong West to take on the Soviet Union. Bush Snr and Major ran a successful Gulf War in 1990 too with a big global coalition.
Now the Democrats have become more and more isolationist and ended up with Biden who is little different to the most isolationist of Republicans like Pat Buchanan, indeed JFK's speech could now be changed under Biden to ''Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay no price, bear no burden, meet no hardship, support no friend, oppose no foe, in order to assure the destruction and decline of liberty."
I have already given two examples which are Brexit and nothing else:
1 EU drivers who have gone home (along with EU factory workers) - a big shortage in available labour despite the higher than expected numbers staying (ergo the official numbers of EU residents in the UK was a big under-read)
2 EU drivers not bringing goods across the border then doing cabotage pick up / drop off jobs up and down the country
If we didn't have Brexit then IR35 would have briefly priced some drivers out (already reversed by rapid pay rises) and we would have a small shortage of drivers where people have retired / left and there hasn't been training of new due to Covid. Like the rest of Europe. Our massive problem is unique, and its massive because of Brexit.
However neither have British, Anglosphere style public schools, so without grammar school competition the public schools are back on top again in terms of the top jobs