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Has Biden’s Afghan move put the mockers on the 2024 nomination? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Carnyx said:

    In a former life I was involved in the Oresund link project.....

    Excellent. You have benefited the human race. Which is more than can be said for some folk.
    Then I became a professional waster :-)
  • Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Flatlander, on the detail, you might well be right (I know there was some consternation about aspects of it but don't know the specifics).

    The appearance, however, will be very clearly favouring Manchester over Leeds. And, politically, that's not very clever.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Mr. Flatlander, on the detail, you might well be right (I know there was some consternation about aspects of it but don't know the specifics).

    The appearance, however, will be very clearly favouring Manchester over Leeds. And, politically, that's not very clever.

    I'd have thought it is more important to connect Manchester and Leeds with a new line as that's where the capacity constraint is.
  • Totally off topic - one for the moth experts. My parents have this one in the garden and cannot identify it. Anyone know what it is?
    https://imgur.com/a/HQWL0BR

    Right click > image search
    Looks like this one:
    Pyrausta aurata * Mint Moth
    http://www.dorsetnature.co.uk/pages-moth/bf-1361.html

    ETA scooped by @SussexJames
    Relating this back to doctors, maybe this is not a mint moth but something else that looks like one. That is the danger of diagnosis by Dr Google. A moth expert would know if that spot pattern is common and you really need to look at the antennae, or something. Same with dermatologists.
    Funnily enough I think you are right. I would leave it to Marquee Mark to confirm as he is the real moth expert around these parts but I think it is actually the Common Purple and Gold (Pyrausta purpuralis) rather than the Small Purple and Gold (Pyrausta aurata).

    https://www.naturespot.org.uk/~nature50/species/pyrausta-purpuralis
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    Thing I'm working through at the moment as I consider 2024 and think on my dislike of Biden as a candidate is "would any of the other Dem candidates have beaten Trump"?

    <humour>Of course, naturally, my man Sherrod Brown would have wiped the floor with him</humour> but he didn't run. So out of the people who were live after Iowa could any of them have beaten Trump?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
    He was also apparently neurosurgeon for three presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. Though of course I was his most famous patient. ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited August 2021
    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2021
    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    Thing I'm working through at the moment as I consider 2024 and think on my dislike of Biden as a candidate is "would any of the other Dem candidates have beaten Trump"?

    <humour>Of course, naturally, my man Sherrod Brown would have wiped the floor with him</humour> but he didn't run. So out of the people who were live after Iowa could any of them have beaten Trump?
    No need for the < humour> thing, just make your jokes funny!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
    Smarkets has the best rules on Biden staying in office for "Yes" backers (I'm one of them)

    This market does not include the death of Joe Biden in office. If Joe Biden dies in office at any point in the term, this market will be void.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,631
    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.
    At the end of WWII my father was stationed at Aalborg, Denmark, employed in throwing weapons found in Denmark into the Kattegat, not far N of the Öresund strait
    Aalborg ”not far north” of Öresund?!?

    Well, if you think 450km is “not far” then admittedly you are starting to think like a Swede 😉 Their concept of distance and time is astonishing. A Swedish “mile” is ten kilometres.

    Aalborg is as close to Öresund as Liverpool is from Beaufort’s Dyke.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited August 2021

    The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.


    I did say it is fantasy but I was very impressed with the Oresund bridge, though we returned by ferry from Helsingborg and purchased a beautiful model sail boat in Helsingor
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.
    We will end up knee deep in squirrels before this lot are thrown out.
    Fine, as long as it’s the little grey bastards.

    I wish folk would take a liking to squirrel meat again, so we could exterminate those American imposters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    The amusing thing about his pledges is No 3:

    3. Climate justice
    Put the Green New Deal at the heart of everything we do. There is no issue more important to our future than the climate emergency. A Clean Air Act to tackle pollution locally. Demand international action on climate rights.


    It really ought to be number one on the list simply because of the big changes to our lifestyles that are fast approaching.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    edited August 2021

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
    That's my reading too. And I think there is a tendency for betting markets to over-react to each development, making a consistent income stream for bookmakers - it's usually best to bet against something happening (Raab not being sacked is a good example). Clearly the Kabul situation is not good, and could get worse. It could also get better - perhaps the evacuation will largely proceed without major disasters and he'll get credit for it in the end. But either way it's unlikely to be a decisive issue over two years from now.

    For now, Biden's poll ratings have taken a hit but seem to have stabilised and are still OKish (around 50% satisfied, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ ). That Biden stumbles a bit in his wording is already priced in as far as the general public goes - we know that's what he's like, but he's good enough that the wilder accusations about senility don't really take off. He's far too moderate and accommodating for my taste, but I'm not a US voter, and even as a non-fan I think he's overall done quite well so far.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    Jesus fucking christ that footage is shocking. I am getting plenty of posts from friends/family in Oz on FB (yes I'm that old) to the effect that people should stay the f*** at home. Dear god.

    Poor old @contrarian would have a coronary.
  • MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    When you refer to summer in Australia due you mean November to March 22
  • The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.
    We will end up knee deep in squirrels before this lot are thrown out.
    Fine, as long as it’s the little grey bastards.

    I wish folk would take a liking to squirrel meat again, so we could exterminate those American imposters.
    Morning Stuart. Are they an issue in Sweden as well or have you managed to avoid the American plague?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
    He was also apparently neurosurgeon for three presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. Though of course I was his most famous patient. ;)
    One of his last interviews, for Motorsport magazine, shows the effect he had on the sport over the years:
    https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/archive/article/december-2008/78/lunch-professor-sid-watkins

    When I’d first worked at Silverstone the medical centre was a primitive hut, staffed by Red Cross people. There’d be some ambulances and doctors, but nothing very sophisticated. When I took a proper team up to the British Grand Prix in 1973 – another neurosurgeon, an anaesthetist, a cardiac doctor, an orthopaedist and a nursing sister – I was told we weren’t necessary for an F1 weekend, and our presence would be more appropriate at a club race where they had more accidents. :open_mouth:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited August 2021
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Big G (broken formatting): - “ I did say it is fantasy but I was very impressed with the Oresund bridge, though we returned by ferry from Helsingborg and purchased a beautiful model sail boat in Helsingor”

    Lucky bugger. I love “Elsinore”, amazing place. I once did a study trip there when I was a councillor. Great privilege to get an insider’s insight, but jeez was my brain sore after listening to bloody Danish all day.

    I really like Helsingborg too. Great little town.

    Cannot stand that bloody ferry though. Marketed to attract alcoholics.

    Agreed, the Öresund bridge is a work of beauty, but cannot rival the awe inspiring sight of the three Forth crossings as you come in to Edinburgh airport.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.
    At the end of WWII my father was stationed at Aalborg, Denmark, employed in throwing weapons found in Denmark into the Kattegat, not far N of the Öresund strait
    Aalborg ”not far north” of Öresund?!?

    Well, if you think 450km is “not far” then admittedly you are starting to think like a Swede 😉 Their concept of distance and time is astonishing. A Swedish “mile” is ten kilometres.

    Aalborg is as close to Öresund as Liverpool is from Beaufort’s Dyke.
    The way he described, as I recall, is that they worked Southwards.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
    That's my reading too. And I think there is a tendency for betting markets to over-react to each development, making a consistent income stream for bookmakers - it's usually best to bet against something happening (Raab not being sacked is a good example). Clearly the Kabul situation is not good, and could get worse. It could also get better - perhaps the evacuation will largely proceed without major disasters and he'll get credit for it in the end. But either way it's unlikely to be a decisive issue over two years from now.

    For now, Biden's poll ratings have taken a hit but seem to have stabilised and are still OKish (around 50% satisfied, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ ). That Biden stumbles a bit in his wording is already priced in as far as the general public goes - we know that's what he's like, but he's good enough that the wilder accusations about senility don't really take off. He's far too moderate and accommodating for my taste, but I'm not a US voter, and even as a non-fan I think he's overall done quite well so far.
    I think also one needs to allow for the hyper-partisan politics of the USA. People will still vote for Biden even if he was barely alive and for Trump despite inciting an attempted coup.

    There is a floor and ceiling to approval ratings there, and to a lesser extent here.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The Scotland-Ireland bridge is many billions for something that most experts have concluded is too dangerous to build. At least HS2 can exist

    'too dangerous to build'?

    Do you mean the Beaufort's Dyke bombs or something else?
    Good morning

    It is a fantasy but this bridge is very impressive

    I have driven over it and i would expect so has @StuartDickson

    BBC News - The real story of the Bridge
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35220191
    Yepp. Car and train.

    But there are major differences.
    The Öresund strait is shallow compared to Beaufort’s Dyke.
    It links Norway, Sweden and their hinterland to the Eurasian mainland, combined population 16 m + hinterland.
    Population of Ireland just 7 m and no hinterland, and it is not linking Ireland to the Eurasian mainland but to another island.
    Öresund was constructed just outside Denmark’s capital city and Sweden’s third largest city, in the heart of one of the industrial centres of Europe. Easy peasy to get nearby labour and supplies. Portpatrick? Err, no.
    But the real killer is rail. Demand for the Öresund section of track is absolutely humongous. Vast freight trains move over the bridge 24/7, 365 days a year. Ivor the Engine chugging over the Irish Sea is just never going to supply that volume of cash. (And aren’t the gauges different in Ireland and Scotland?)
    I could go on , but this is just a squirrel to detract from Johnson’s lack of policy.
    We will end up knee deep in squirrels before this lot are thrown out.
    Fine, as long as it’s the little grey bastards.

    I wish folk would take a liking to squirrel meat again, so we could exterminate those American imposters.
    Morning Stuart. Are they an issue in Sweden as well or have you managed to avoid the American plague?
    Never seen a grey squirrel in Sweden. I would have to Google to see if they are present.

    The reds are abundant, but a different sub-species. Much darker, can be almost black. The Scottish ones are much cuter, and very abundant too in the part of the country I’m in now. Talking of which, I’ve got a stunning landscape to peruse out in the garden. Toodle pip.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
    The projected economic gains are based on the treasury's gravity model which is completely shit and discredited. It also doesn't take into account that a 0.3% economic gain in London will make no difference to actual people but a potential 5% economic gain in Leeds will be hugely beneficial, but because, in absolute number terms, the tiny gain in London is much bigger than anything else the model rates the London to Birmingham bit as more valuable.

    Ultimately if we were going on an economic case then we wouldn't be bothering. The whole point of something like HS2 is unlocking potential economic gains that don't currently exist, not maximising what does exist (which is how the current model works and why it's also bullshit for all of those trade deal ratings).

    The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster is extremely marginal, I'd go as far as saying it will make precisely zero difference to London's economic potential. Being able to go from Leeds or Sheffield to Birmingham and Manchester will make a much bigger difference to those cities than it ever will for London.

    It's a completely bullshit decision and hopefully the red/blue wall MPs force a u-turn. Ideally we'd actually push it all the way up to Edinburgh at some stage from the Leeds branch via Newcastle and the Manchester branch going up to Glasgow.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    Younger son is in a similar case. Really needs to meet with new Australian colleagues; Zoom etc doesn't really cut it when building relationships. Needs a bit of socialising.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    My Trust recently had to issue an apology about Peaty:

    https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/celebs-tv/hospital-apologises-new-mum-over-5818867
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    When you refer to summer in Australia due you mean November to March 22
    Yes, the southern hemisphere summer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
    I was recently clearing out the paperwork for the hospital insurance policy which my late parents had taken out (without my knowledge, as it happens). Mrs C, who knows about those things, pointed out that it was focussed precisely on the rarest problems and explicitly excluded the commonest problems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited August 2021

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
    That's my reading too. And I think there is a tendency for betting markets to over-react to each development, making a consistent income stream for bookmakers - it's usually best to bet against something happening (Raab not being sacked is a good example). Clearly the Kabul situation is not good, and could get worse. It could also get better - perhaps the evacuation will largely proceed without major disasters and he'll get credit for it in the end. But either way it's unlikely to be a decisive issue over two years from now.

    For now, Biden's poll ratings have taken a hit but seem to have stabilised and are still OKish (around 50% satisfied, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ ). That Biden stumbles a bit in his wording is already priced in as far as the general public goes - we know that's what he's like, but he's good enough that the wilder accusations about senility don't really take off. He's far too moderate and accommodating for my taste, but I'm not a US voter, and even as a non-fan I think he's overall done quite well so far.
    Biden's average approval rating at day 215 of his presidency is now 49%.

    That is still above the 37.4% Trump was on and the 44.2% Clinton was at at this stage of their presidencies yes.

    However it is below the 51.8% Obama was on, the 52.9% Bush Jnr was on, the 68.8% Bush Snr was on, the 60.1% Reagan was on and the 65% Carter was on at the same stage of their presidencies.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    So Biden is now below average for Presidents at this stage
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
    He was also apparently neurosurgeon for three presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. Though of course I was his most famous patient. ;)
    One of his last interviews, for Motorsport magazine, shows the effect he had on the sport over the years:
    https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/archive/article/december-2008/78/lunch-professor-sid-watkins

    When I’d first worked at Silverstone the medical centre was a primitive hut, staffed by Red Cross people. There’d be some ambulances and doctors, but nothing very sophisticated. When I took a proper team up to the British Grand Prix in 1973 – another neurosurgeon, an anaesthetist, a cardiac doctor, an orthopaedist and a nursing sister – I was told we weren’t necessary for an F1 weekend, and our presence would be more appropriate at a club race where they had more accidents. :open_mouth:
    He once told me that he was concerned about the number of back injuries in the sport. It would take a few years for removable seats to be introduced (so the driver could be removed in the seat), so he worked with one of the teams to produce two boards. One could be slid under the drivers bottom, and the other behind his back, and they would then be locked together, allowing the driver to be removed without moving his back.

    He said it was being used in junior formulae as well, and had already saved several young kids from serious back injuries.

    Yet nobody much knew about it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    The biggest crime, in my opinion, is that it's not linked to HS1 so that trains can go direct from Manchester/Birmingham to Paris/Brussels. Apparently it's because they didn't want to build in customs/passport control at those stations.
  • Big G (broken formatting): - “ I did say it is fantasy but I was very impressed with the Oresund bridge, though we returned by ferry from Helsingborg and purchased a beautiful model sail boat in Helsingor”

    Lucky bugger. I love “Elsinore”, amazing place. I once did a study trip there when I was a councillor. Great privilege to get an insider’s insight, but jeez was my brain sore after listening to bloody Danish all day.

    I really like Helsingborg too. Great little town.

    Cannot stand that bloody ferry though. Marketed to attract alcoholics.

    Agreed, the Öresund bridge is a work of beauty, but cannot rival the awe inspiring sight of the three Forth crossings as you come in to Edinburgh airport.

    Sorry about my formatting

    Elsinore was wonderful, as is the sail boat which I was able to bring home in my car boot, otherwise it may have been an issue by plane

    The Oresund bridge was an experience but you may like to know that I could see the lights of the construction of the old forth road crossing from my bedroom in Pentlands

    On the day of the opening (1964) our friends and my wife and I drove over the bridge but only knew we were by the gentle rise of the road deck, as everything was shrouded in an east coast haar to the point if my memory is correct HMQ's ship had a minor collision with another in the forth
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited August 2021

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
    Doesn't your landlord require you to have insurance? Interesting. And it is entirely understandable not to have it, although many people find it extremely reassuring to have such insurance although we do appreciate Nick that you are somewhat of an odd fish.

    And as for your road accident the insurer won't "shovel you into the NHS" because from the scene you will in the first instance go to the NHS. It's after that when it might get trickier if you have, as in my example, some broken bones or another condition which needs investigation and/or is more complex but yes people can survive (!) on the NHS wholly albeit they will need to sharpen their elbows dramatically.
  • Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    Strictly is massive, its the BBC #1 show....they never shut up about it when it is on, so yes it will give huge name recognition / exposure.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    When you refer to summer in Australia due you mean November to March 22
    Yes, the southern hemisphere summer.
    I really am losing it

    due = do
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    I have no idea if he can dance, but if he goes deep into the competition, that will be a huge help for someone that isn't that well known and his medals were won in the middle of the night.

    I'm annoyed that Max Whitlock isn't in it (I backed him @40-1 and he's still around that) - sounds like he's turned Strictly down in the past - he'd probably win it easily.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    This is where the successor comes in. Buttigieg or somebody could still stage an upset but most likely he's lumbered the party with Kamala, who doesn't look like a great candidate. And there's a good chance that even if Trump isn't the opponent this time, Biden won't know that until late in the day, since even if he's not running Trump will presumably still leave the possibility dangling so he can fund-raise off it.

    So I think Biden likely feels duty-bound to run again, provided he's still able to breathe and ideally stand up.
    That's my reading too. And I think there is a tendency for betting markets to over-react to each development, making a consistent income stream for bookmakers - it's usually best to bet against something happening (Raab not being sacked is a good example). Clearly the Kabul situation is not good, and could get worse. It could also get better - perhaps the evacuation will largely proceed without major disasters and he'll get credit for it in the end. But either way it's unlikely to be a decisive issue over two years from now.

    For now, Biden's poll ratings have taken a hit but seem to have stabilised and are still OKish (around 50% satisfied, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ ). That Biden stumbles a bit in his wording is already priced in as far as the general public goes - we know that's what he's like, but he's good enough that the wilder accusations about senility don't really take off. He's far too moderate and accommodating for my taste, but I'm not a US voter, and even as a non-fan I think he's overall done quite well so far.
    Biden's average approval rating at day 215 of his presidency is now 49%.

    That is still above the 37.4% Trump was on and the 44.2% Clinton was at at this stage of their presidencies yes.

    However it is below the 51.8% Obama was on, the 52.9% Bush Jnr was on, the 68.8% Bush Snr was on, the 60.1% Reagan was on and the 65% Carter was on at the same stage of their presidencies.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    So Biden is now below average for Presidents at this stage
    I think that just illustrates the increasingly polarised nature of modern American politics. Dems wouldn't approve of Rep presidents now, and vice versa, even if they walked on water and turned water into wine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    The biggest crime, in my opinion, is that it's not linked to HS1 so that trains can go direct from Manchester/Birmingham to Paris/Brussels. Apparently it's because they didn't want to build in customs/passport control at those stations.
    Again, lack of ambition not to have an "airside" underground walking/transit route. The HS2 link would basically have ruined Camden so it was never going to happen, but the lack of planning since that was realised has been poor.

    I don't see why having border controls in those stations would be an issue. A few e-gates and a couple of border guards doesn't seem like a big deal. Maybe it's the other costs associated such as having three more sites to protect from terrorism etc...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited August 2021
    Surprised we aren't talking about the CH4 documentary from last night about COVID origins.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme?
    *said in best Edith Evans' Lady Bracknell tones*
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    Strictly is massive, its the BBC #1 show....they never shut up about it when it is on, so yes it will give huge name recognition / exposure.
    Shows how long Sandpit's been in the Sandpit!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668

    Mr. Flatlander, on the detail, you might well be right (I know there was some consternation about aspects of it but don't know the specifics).

    The appearance, however, will be very clearly favouring Manchester over Leeds. And, politically, that's not very clever.

    You might be right about the perception of that, although I've not heard much positivity for HS2. The vast majority of the 'Red Wall' doesn't go to London very often. They do have to put up with poor local services though.

    As tlg86 says, the real problems are in crossing the Pennines, and many many more people experience that horror daily. Linking Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield with decent services would make a huge difference. Particularly given the road alternatives are horrible, and particularly so in winter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    The main surprise to me about the the current Afghanolypse is that despite the attempts of various hysterics to portray it as such, it is not a -lypse. So far (very much touchwood) the Taliban have not turned Kabul into 1975 Phnom Penh, and much of the horror show is so far down to the chaos overseen by ‘us’(the West). I realise it takes only one itchy trigger-fingered young Pashtun to blow it all up and no doubt what the Taliban are doing and will do is horrific, but in the context of Yemen or the Uighur or Boko Haram’s various activities does it really stand out?

    Have the Taliban top trumps made a pragmatic decision that if they want to set up their quasi fascist state they have to let the West get out relatively unimpeded?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    I have no idea if he can dance, but if he goes deep into the competition, that will be a huge help for someone that isn't that well known and his medals were won in the middle of the night.

    I'm annoyed that Max Whitlock isn't in it (I backed him @40-1 and he's still around that) - sounds like he's turned Strictly down in the past - he'd probably win it easily.
    Then again...Louis Smith spanked Strictly and rightly so. Perhaps it's the discipline. Gymnastics seems more rhythmical. Some athletes, swimmers included (Mark Foster), however, have whatever is the opposite of rhythm for some reason. David James was shocking and there have been countless other athletes who have shown zero aptitude to dance (in time with the music together with a partner).
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    Strictly is massive, its the BBC #1 show....they never shut up about it when it is on, so yes it will give huge name recognition / exposure.
    This is true, though I wonder how big the Strictly/SPotY overlap is. People who bet seriously on Strictly say the dominant demographic for it is women over 50, which obviously is pretty much the opposite of SPotY voters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. 86, *start* by spending money in the north of England, not London?

    Madness!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,160
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
    Doesn't your landlord require you to have insurance? Interesting. And it is entirely understandable not to have it, although many people find it extremely reassuring to have such insurance although we do appreciate Nick that you are somewhat of an odd fish.

    And as for your road accident the insurer won't "shovel you into the NHS" because from the scene you will in the first instance go to the NHS. It's after that when it might get trickier if you have, as in my example, some broken bones or another condition which needs investigation and/or is more complex but yes people can survive (!) on the NHS wholly albeit they will need to sharpen their elbows dramatically.
    On the medical insurance - I Can't get anything meaningful due to diabetes.

    What I do have is a cash plan which covers a lot of routine things, and cash for days in hospital etc. Cover things like routine health checks and sometimes physio etc. Worth a thought.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/insurance/healthcare-cash-plans/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
    The projected economic gains are based on the treasury's gravity model which is completely shit and discredited. It also doesn't take into account that a 0.3% economic gain in London will make no difference to actual people but a potential 5% economic gain in Leeds will be hugely beneficial, but because, in absolute number terms, the tiny gain in London is much bigger than anything else the model rates the London to Birmingham bit as more valuable.

    Ultimately if we were going on an economic case then we wouldn't be bothering. The whole point of something like HS2 is unlocking potential economic gains that don't currently exist, not maximising what does exist (which is how the current model works and why it's also bullshit for all of those trade deal ratings).

    The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster is extremely marginal, I'd go as far as saying it will make precisely zero difference to London's economic potential. Being able to go from Leeds or Sheffield to Birmingham and Manchester will make a much bigger difference to those cities than it ever will for London.

    It's a completely bullshit decision and hopefully the red/blue wall MPs force a u-turn. Ideally we'd actually push it all the way up to Edinburgh at some stage from the Leeds branch via Newcastle and the Manchester branch going up to Glasgow.
    "The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster"

    Repeat after me: it's not about speed: it's about capacity. And the worst crunches are on the WCML south of Birmingham. That part of the route may not be the biggest bang for the buck, but it's the key to the entire project.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
    Doesn't your landlord require you to have insurance? Interesting. And it is entirely understandable not to have it, although many people find it extremely reassuring to have such insurance although we do appreciate Nick that you are somewhat of an odd fish.

    And as for your road accident the insurer won't "shovel you into the NHS" because from the scene you will in the first instance go to the NHS. It's after that when it might get trickier if you have, as in my example, some broken bones or another condition which needs investigation and/or is more complex but yes people can survive (!) on the NHS wholly albeit they will need to sharpen their elbows dramatically.
    On the medical insurance - I Can't get anything meaningful due to diabetes.

    What I do have is a cash plan which covers a lot of routine things, and cash for days in hospital etc. Cover things like routine health checks and sometimes physio etc. Worth a thought.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/insurance/healthcare-cash-plans/
    Very interesting. And useful for a lot of people.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
    The projected economic gains are based on the treasury's gravity model which is completely shit and discredited. It also doesn't take into account that a 0.3% economic gain in London will make no difference to actual people but a potential 5% economic gain in Leeds will be hugely beneficial, but because, in absolute number terms, the tiny gain in London is much bigger than anything else the model rates the London to Birmingham bit as more valuable.

    Ultimately if we were going on an economic case then we wouldn't be bothering. The whole point of something like HS2 is unlocking potential economic gains that don't currently exist, not maximising what does exist (which is how the current model works and why it's also bullshit for all of those trade deal ratings).

    The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster is extremely marginal, I'd go as far as saying it will make precisely zero difference to London's economic potential. Being able to go from Leeds or Sheffield to Birmingham and Manchester will make a much bigger difference to those cities than it ever will for London.

    It's a completely bullshit decision and hopefully the red/blue wall MPs force a u-turn. Ideally we'd actually push it all the way up to Edinburgh at some stage from the Leeds branch via Newcastle and the Manchester branch going up to Glasgow.
    "The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster"

    Repeat after me: it's not about speed: it's about capacity. And the worst crunches are on the WCML south of Birmingham. That part of the route may not be the biggest bang for the buck, but it's the key to the entire project.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    That's all I've got for "but it's capacity" people. You guys are delusional.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    I have no idea if he can dance, but if he goes deep into the competition, that will be a huge help for someone that isn't that well known and his medals were won in the middle of the night.

    I'm annoyed that Max Whitlock isn't in it (I backed him @40-1 and he's still around that) - sounds like he's turned Strictly down in the past - he'd probably win it easily.
    Then again...Louis Smith spanked Strictly and rightly so. Perhaps it's the discipline. Gymnastics seems more rhythmical. Some athletes, swimmers included (Mark Foster), however, have whatever is the opposite of rhythm for some reason. David James was shocking and there have been countless other athletes who have shown zero aptitude to dance (in time with the music together with a partner).
    Quite why cricketers would be good at it (dancing down the pitch?), I don't know, but Gough and Ramprakash won it. Gymnasts being good at dancing makes sense, but as you say, quite why the market thinks Peaty will be good, I don't know (other than he is obviously very fit - not sure if he is in the other sense, which may also help).
  • I was reminded by the accusations of bare faced lies on the previous thread that I spent a portion of my early childhood distrusting people based on their facial resemblance to bears. I finally got set straight after explaining why I was so upset that my favourite grandpa had grown a beard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited August 2021
    Taliban set August 31st as the deadline for all US and British troops to withdraw from Afghanistan and the evacuation of westerners and refugees to be completed.

    Otherwise the Taliban spokesman warns there will be 'consequences' and it would 'provoke a reaction' from the Taliban
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9918373/Taliban-warn-consequences-Britain-try-extend-August-31-withdrawal-deadline.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited August 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
    He was also apparently neurosurgeon for three presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. Though of course I was his most famous patient. ;)
    One of his last interviews, for Motorsport magazine, shows the effect he had on the sport over the years:
    https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/archive/article/december-2008/78/lunch-professor-sid-watkins

    When I’d first worked at Silverstone the medical centre was a primitive hut, staffed by Red Cross people. There’d be some ambulances and doctors, but nothing very sophisticated. When I took a proper team up to the British Grand Prix in 1973 – another neurosurgeon, an anaesthetist, a cardiac doctor, an orthopaedist and a nursing sister – I was told we weren’t necessary for an F1 weekend, and our presence would be more appropriate at a club race where they had more accidents. :open_mouth:
    He once told me that he was concerned about the number of back injuries in the sport. It would take a few years for removable seats to be introduced (so the driver could be removed in the seat), so he worked with one of the teams to produce two boards. One could be slid under the drivers bottom, and the other behind his back, and they would then be locked together, allowing the driver to be removed without moving his back.

    He said it was being used in junior formulae as well, and had already saved several young kids from serious back injuries.

    Yet nobody much knew about it.
    Yes, it’s quite amazing how such simple things we take for granted, were actually quite recent inventions.

    Motorsport is a bit like the aerospace and defence industries, for all the inventions they’ve given to the world over the years. The “Jaws of Life” were originally developed in the ‘60s for what’s now NASCAR, to get at a seriously injured driver trapped in a crashed car. Nowadays every fire department has a range of hydraulic tools, for disassembling a vehicle or holding up a collapsed structure in an emergency.

    Not to mention vehicle designs themselves, features such as traction control and active suspension saw their first automotive applications in F1, now every car has them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    Strictly is massive, its the BBC #1 show....they never shut up about it when it is on, so yes it will give huge name recognition / exposure.
    Shows how long Sandpit's been in the Sandpit!
    LOL :D (15 years)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    Thing I'm working through at the moment as I consider 2024 and think on my dislike of Biden as a candidate is "would any of the other Dem candidates have beaten Trump"?

    <humour>Of course, naturally, my man Sherrod Brown would have wiped the floor with him</humour> but he didn't run. So out of the people who were live after Iowa could any of them have beaten Trump?
    No need for the < humour> thing, just make your jokes funny!
    My humour is dry like the Saharan desert. It's not for everyone.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,160
    edited August 2021
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    Wow. Agree with Max on a public spending issue :smile:

    HS2 is about a 21C transport system, and the further benefits of HS2 are getting people out of aeroplanes, and creating capacity to move freight off roads. Which puts it at the heart of the core green agenda of this Govt.

    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.

    Where PT has been invested in - perhaps mainly metropolitan area systems and light rail / trams - it is used.

    If it is true that the EM and NE are being knifed in the back on levelling up, after multiple billions have been p*ssed away on unnecessary tunnels and similar to placate Nimbys, then there should be hell to pay.

    They are also washing away some of the foundations of their appeal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Has any of the track started to be built for HS2 yet ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
    The projected economic gains are based on the treasury's gravity model which is completely shit and discredited. It also doesn't take into account that a 0.3% economic gain in London will make no difference to actual people but a potential 5% economic gain in Leeds will be hugely beneficial, but because, in absolute number terms, the tiny gain in London is much bigger than anything else the model rates the London to Birmingham bit as more valuable.

    Ultimately if we were going on an economic case then we wouldn't be bothering. The whole point of something like HS2 is unlocking potential economic gains that don't currently exist, not maximising what does exist (which is how the current model works and why it's also bullshit for all of those trade deal ratings).

    The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster is extremely marginal, I'd go as far as saying it will make precisely zero difference to London's economic potential. Being able to go from Leeds or Sheffield to Birmingham and Manchester will make a much bigger difference to those cities than it ever will for London.

    It's a completely bullshit decision and hopefully the red/blue wall MPs force a u-turn. Ideally we'd actually push it all the way up to Edinburgh at some stage from the Leeds branch via Newcastle and the Manchester branch going up to Glasgow.
    "The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster"

    Repeat after me: it's not about speed: it's about capacity. And the worst crunches are on the WCML south of Birmingham. That part of the route may not be the biggest bang for the buck, but it's the key to the entire project.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    That's all I've got for "but it's capacity" people. You guys are delusional.
    That's quite an accusation. Care to explain why?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    I find American politics particularly hard to read, but FWIW I assumed Biden was going to be a one term president, but maybe more effective than people were giving him credit for, due his decades of experience.

    Clearly Afghanistan hasn't gone to plan, although the fundamental objective to get the hell out of the country is not going to change.

    Trump would have won the last election if it weren't for the twin factors of Covid and a competent campaigner in Joe Biden. We have that to be thankful to Biden for, and that might have been a large part of the motivation of an old man without a lot to prove.

    Thing I'm working through at the moment as I consider 2024 and think on my dislike of Biden as a candidate is "would any of the other Dem candidates have beaten Trump"?

    <humour>Of course, naturally, my man Sherrod Brown would have wiped the floor with him</humour> but he didn't run. So out of the people who were live after Iowa could any of them have beaten Trump?
    No need for the < humour> thing, just make your jokes funny!
    My humour is dry like the Saharan desert. It's not for everyone.
    It's like the advice for speeches. Be brief and very, very funny.

    Or as one speech started a while ago which I have always liked: "They say that a good speech should last no longer than the time it takes to have sex....so if you'll all bear with me for the next hour and a half..."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited August 2021
    Lewis Goodall - “unhinged, simply misogynist attacks”.

    https://order-order.com/2021/08/23/bbc-dodges-questions-on-jess-brammar-hiring-process/

    For read piece highlighting the lady in question has a long history of airing her consistently anti-Tory / anti-Brexit / left leaning views.

    Strangely he doesn't get so excitable when the Guardian do the same over right learning appointments. And they absolutely do the same...dragging over everything somebody has ever done or said in the past and then writing piece after piece after piece about it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    (snip)
    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.
    (snip)
    Are you sure? This is from 2016, but the age of passenger rolling stock appears to be a very mixed picture, and relatively little is from the 1970s, and not much from the 1980s, especially the early 1980s.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38450117

    The removal from service of the Pacers, and most of the HSTs, will have improved this since. even if the replacements for the HSTs are generally worse. ;)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    Jesus fucking christ that footage is shocking. I am getting plenty of posts from friends/family in Oz on FB (yes I'm that old) to the effect that people should stay the f*** at home. Dear god.

    Poor old @contrarian would have a coronary.
    Bonkers.

    Every drip drip of this sort of covidiocy makes ever having a lockdown again, here, less likely.

    Thank the lord for that!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    Pulpstar said:

    Has any of the track started to be built for HS2 yet ?

    Not yet, as far as I'm aware. Some temporary tracks/sidings have been built for spoil trains.
    https://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/articles/first-trains-HS2-willesden-logistics-hub
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,160
    Hmmm.

    *Partly* agree with Max on a public spending question, having read previous posts !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958

    Lewis Goodall - “unhinged, simply misogynist attacks”.

    https://order-order.com/2021/08/23/bbc-dodges-questions-on-jess-brammar-hiring-process/

    For read piece highlighting the lady in question has a long history of airing her consistently anti-Tory / anti-Brexit / left leaning views.

    Strangely he doesn't get so excitable when the Guardian do the same over right learning appointments. And they absolutely do the same...dragging over everything somebody has ever done or said in the past and then writing piece after piece after piece about it.

    What had the age of her partner and who he is to do with Brammar’s alleged anti-Tory / anti-Brexit / left leaning views?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:



    Not to mention vehicle designs themselves, features such as traction control and active suspension saw their first automotive applications in F1, now every car has them.

    Other way round. Toyota had active suspension on the Soarer in 1986 before F1 had it. (Citroen had semi-active suspension that wasn't electronically controlled decades before that.) BMW and Mercedes both had traction control on road cars in the mid 80s before F1.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,160

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    (snip)
    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.
    (snip)
    Are you sure? This is from 2016, but the age of passenger rolling stock appears to be a very mixed picture, and relatively little is from the 1970s, and not much from the 1980s, especially the early 1980s.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38450117

    The removal from service of the Pacers, and most of the HSTs, will have improved this since. even if the replacements for the HSTs are generally worse. ;)
    I think that was a symbol of a general attitude !
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    TOPPING said:


    Doesn't your landlord require you to have insurance? Interesting. And it is entirely understandable not to have it, although many people find it extremely reassuring to have such insurance although we do appreciate Nick that you are somewhat of an odd fish.

    And as for your road accident the insurer won't "shovel you into the NHS" because from the scene you will in the first instance go to the NHS. It's after that when it might get trickier if you have, as in my example, some broken bones or another condition which needs investigation and/or is more complex but yes people can survive (!) on the NHS wholly albeit they will need to sharpen their elbows dramatically.

    lol - maybe on your fishy point. No, my landlord has never shown the slightest interest in whether I insure my books, clothes, computer etc. - nor has any previous landlord, though some asked me to take insurance against the special issue of my damaging the property itself. I've never had a landlord who cared beyond that.

    My rule of thumb is that it's worth considering insuring anything where the cost of replacing it would be more than 10% of your savings. If it's more like 5%, then the cost and hassle of insurance is almost certainly too much. I agree that health is different because the costs can escalate out of sight and you're not just replacing stuff but risking your quality of life.
  • MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    Wow. Agree with Max on a public spending issue :smile:

    HS2 is about a 21C transport system, and the further benefits of HS2 are getting people out of aeroplanes, and creating capacity to move freight off roads. Which puts it at the heart of the core green agenda of this Govt.

    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.

    Where PT has been invested in - perhaps mainly metropolitan area systems and light rail / trams - it is used.

    If it is true that the EM and NE are being knifed in the back on levelling up, after multiple billions have been p*ssed away on unnecessary tunnels and similar to placate Nimbys, then there should be hell to pay.

    They are also washing away some of the foundations of their appeal.
    Where public transport has been invested in it is indeed used. By a teeny tiny fraction of northerners.

    The overwhelming majority of northerners (like the overwhelming majority of the country full stop) drive - and the climate excuse to be anti-car has been eliminated by Tesla etc

    £100bn invested into the road network would do far more for the country than £100bn on a train set.

    Not as shiny and pretty for people who make these decisions though. But the roads actually work and are actually what is used by the overwhelming majority of the country. £100bn of new motorways (and by-passes and other road upgrades etc) would do massively more than a new train set to play with.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    Jesus fucking christ that footage is shocking. I am getting plenty of posts from friends/family in Oz on FB (yes I'm that old) to the effect that people should stay the f*** at home. Dear god.

    Poor old @contrarian would have a coronary.
    Bonkers.

    Every drip drip of this sort of covidiocy makes ever having a lockdown again, here, less likely.

    Thank the lord for that!
    That video presents as premium satire. It channels the most cutting work of Paul Verhoeven, Robocop, maybe even Starship Troopers.
  • U.S. FDA
    @US_FDA
    You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y'all. Stop it.

    https://twitter.com/US_FDA/status/1429050070243192839?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    That's the key question - is he human fish or is he dancer?

    I'm hoping he conquers Strictly because he's my Spoty bet at juicy odds.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited August 2021

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    "The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part."

    I really have to ask how you come to make this statement, because as far as I'm aware it's 100% wrong.
    The projected economic gains are based on the treasury's gravity model which is completely shit and discredited. It also doesn't take into account that a 0.3% economic gain in London will make no difference to actual people but a potential 5% economic gain in Leeds will be hugely beneficial, but because, in absolute number terms, the tiny gain in London is much bigger than anything else the model rates the London to Birmingham bit as more valuable.

    Ultimately if we were going on an economic case then we wouldn't be bothering. The whole point of something like HS2 is unlocking potential economic gains that don't currently exist, not maximising what does exist (which is how the current model works and why it's also bullshit for all of those trade deal ratings).

    The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster is extremely marginal, I'd go as far as saying it will make precisely zero difference to London's economic potential. Being able to go from Leeds or Sheffield to Birmingham and Manchester will make a much bigger difference to those cities than it ever will for London.

    It's a completely bullshit decision and hopefully the red/blue wall MPs force a u-turn. Ideally we'd actually push it all the way up to Edinburgh at some stage from the Leeds branch via Newcastle and the Manchester branch going up to Glasgow.
    "The potential economic gains in London by being able to travel to Birmingham a bit faster"

    Repeat after me: it's not about speed: it's about capacity. And the worst crunches are on the WCML south of Birmingham. That part of the route may not be the biggest bang for the buck, but it's the key to the entire project.
    I don't know if the investment case for HS2 holds water. In general I find the numbers for large capital projects rarely pan out for the investment horizons set for them, but the benefits accrue for much longer than the original plan. We are still benefiting from investments made in the 19thC into railways. If they hadn't gone ahead and done those investments we would still be discussing the merits nearly two hundred years later.

    The capacity argument seems the strongest, which why it doesn't seem to make sense to cut the Birmingham to Nottingham stretch. So move passenger trains from the West Coast and Midland lines to HS2, take goods trains off the East Coast Mainline south of Newark and put them on the Midland line. If necessary cut both branches of HS2, north of Crewe and Nottingham. Otherwise you just duplicate the West Coast line to Manchester and don't get the big capacity win.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Some of the news reports from Australia are surreal. They handcuffed a group of 8 teenagers who were meeting outside in Bondi.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1428996054301749249

    Zero COVID idiots have completely ruined Australia and New Zealand. We had our wider team meeting this morning and one of the number is in Wellington. He's basically written off the whole summer and can't get back to Australia because the travel bridge is closed and there's no quarantine slots available.

    It's shocking that two advanced countries like that have been captured by such a stupid idea like eradication of a global virus.
    Jesus fucking christ that footage is shocking. I am getting plenty of posts from friends/family in Oz on FB (yes I'm that old) to the effect that people should stay the f*** at home. Dear god.

    Poor old @contrarian would have a coronary.
    Bonkers.

    Every drip drip of this sort of covidiocy makes ever having a lockdown again, here, less likely.

    Thank the lord for that!
    That video presents as premium satire. It channels the most cutting work of Paul Verhoeven, Robocop, maybe even Starship Troopers.
    It's quite scary. I don't understand how they let it get to this stage. They've had the same opportunity to vaccinate people as we have and yet they're at 20% fully vaccinated compared to 60% for the UK. What the fuck have they been doing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:



    Not to mention vehicle designs themselves, features such as traction control and active suspension saw their first automotive applications in F1, now every car has them.

    Other way round. Toyota had active suspension on the Soarer in 1986 before F1 had it. (Citroen had semi-active suspension that wasn't electronically controlled decades before that.) BMW and Mercedes both had traction control on road cars in the mid 80s before F1.
    Absolutely. And as far as I'm aware there is no F1 car in production which can hold a pig in the boot, four people, with the driver wearing a top hat, and be able to drive over a ploughed field with a box of eggs in the back without breaking them.

    Eh? Eh?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Thanks, that's very helpful.

    The self-funding if necessary option looks the best for me.
    Yes. Insurance generally - travel, health, car, house, life, all of it - is a bet with the odds skewed heavily to the House. The only rational reason to do it is to get protection against something which if it happened would really screw you (or your dependents) up financially. And even then you need to look carefully at the probability of it happening. The only insurance I have is basic motor and that's because it's the law.
    So no house insurance? Bold call.

    Also, on health, as mentioned earlier, I bust up my hand (you should have seen the other guy) a couple of years ago and the NHS said I had to wait five weeks to see a consultant. By which time of course the bones would have healed. I was at a private consultant the following day.

    But I like your carefree, hair in the wind, freewheeling attitude.
    Don't know about kinabalu but as a tenant I certainly don't insure the house, and using his reasoning I also don't insure the contents - I can afford to replace some or all of them if necessary, and would rather not pay extortionate premiums to cover the off-chance that the place burns to a cinder. Health insurance is trickier since, as you say, you can pay a lot for one-off treatment of moderate complexity. If you have a crisis like a road accident the insurer will shovel you into the NHS anyway, though, so I don't insure for that either, and will basically go with the NHS flow.
    Doesn't your landlord require you to have insurance? Interesting. And it is entirely understandable not to have it, although many people find it extremely reassuring to have such insurance although we do appreciate Nick that you are somewhat of an odd fish.

    And as for your road accident the insurer won't "shovel you into the NHS" because from the scene you will in the first instance go to the NHS. It's after that when it might get trickier if you have, as in my example, some broken bones or another condition which needs investigation and/or is more complex but yes people can survive (!) on the NHS wholly albeit they will need to sharpen their elbows dramatically.
    Sound a drastic treatment for a broken bone.
  • Quincel said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone on here suggested that SPoTY could be influenced by Strictly. I see that Adam Peaty is on the show and is now the third favourite for SPoTY (back @ 7.4). He's second favourite for Strictly (based on what, I don't know!).

    What on earth is “Strictly”?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_Come_Dancing_(series_19)
    A dancing programme? Can Mr Peaty dance, and do we think this programme has enough of a profile to make a difference to the SPoTY outcome? I’d expect him to be a nominee, if there’s the usual (for an Olympic year) dozen-person shortlist.
    Strictly is massive, its the BBC #1 show....they never shut up about it when it is on, so yes it will give huge name recognition / exposure.
    This is true, though I wonder how big the Strictly/SPotY overlap is. People who bet seriously on Strictly say the dominant demographic for it is women over 50, which obviously is pretty much the opposite of SPotY voters.
    Is it though? I've always taken the view, based on no evidence whatever, that getting nominated is about sport but after that, it's a reality show, which is wrong. Better would be that after nomination, it is subject to organised campaigns, so perhaps more like the Oscars.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    /
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:



    Not to mention vehicle designs themselves, features such as traction control and active suspension saw their first automotive applications in F1, now every car has them.

    Other way round. Toyota had active suspension on the Soarer in 1986 before F1 had it. (Citroen had semi-active suspension that wasn't electronically controlled decades before that.) BMW and Mercedes both had traction control on road cars in the mid 80s before F1.
    Absolutely. And as far as I'm aware there is no F1 car in production which can hold a pig in the boot, four people, with the driver wearing a top hat, and be able to drive over a ploughed field with a box of eggs in the back without breaking them.

    Eh? Eh?
    The 2CV is still pretty crap around Silverstone or Spa though!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Lewis Goodall - “unhinged, simply misogynist attacks”.

    https://order-order.com/2021/08/23/bbc-dodges-questions-on-jess-brammar-hiring-process/

    For read piece highlighting the lady in question has a long history of airing her consistently anti-Tory / anti-Brexit / left leaning views.

    Strangely he doesn't get so excitable when the Guardian do the same over right learning appointments. And they absolutely do the same...dragging over everything somebody has ever done or said in the past and then writing piece after piece after piece about it.

    We have a raging Tory at the top of the Beeb. It's impartiality is thus assured.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Few things are less cherry at the start of a week than reading about GP mistakes.

    So given covid backlogs to medical treatment is private medical insurance ** now worth it ?

    Or would paying for private consultancy or treatment if required be a better ?

    ** Affordable but more than double the cost of home and car insurance combined.

    Look carefully at the cover. Most policies require a GP referral to cover payment, and there are significant excesses and exclusions. Many policies will refuse cover for chronic conditions (lasting greater than 6 weeks) or those where NHS is available on a reasonable timescale. Every month I have a Private patient who is annoyed at their refusal of cover by the insurance company that they were relying on.

    That said, waiting lists have mushroomed for elective procedures and even for outpatient appointments. In my dept we are now booking routine referrals to outpatients from Dec 2020.

    Self funding private care is a reasonable option, and putting those premiums into a savings pot instead of an insurance company gives you control and flexibility. You get to keep the money too if unused.

    A lot depends on your own financial resources and existing health status and risks.
    Getting private healthcare to pay out can be problematic. As many may know, I had a vast amount of problems with my ankle during my youth, including many operations. For a couple of years I had few problems, and thought it was over. Then it went wrong again, and I went back to my old surgeon. The healthcare provider refused to pay, as it was an 'old' injury.

    The Prof. made a few phone calls, and threatened never to do any work for them again. Since he was slightly famous, we get an apology from the provider and they paid for a few more ops. Thanks to the Prof., I can walk and run. Without private healthcare, I have no doubt I would be slightly disabled.

    Having said that, since many of the problems had been caused by a failed NHS op, there're problems there as well.
    That Prof, if he’s the one I’m thinking of, wrote a very good book.
    Two very good books. I've got signed copies of both. ;)

    The funny thing is I had no idea who he was when he took my on. Just before the first op, I went for a consultation and his secretary said: "We've been trying to contact you. Sid's asked me to tell you he's been unavoidably detained. But between you and me, he's playing golf with Ayrton Senna."

    I had zero idea who he was before that. Sid was a kind, good man, and a brilliant surgeon. After one op, he came into the ward with a bottle of whisky and said: "None of my friends are in London. Fancy a drink?" Then lit a cigar.

    One of a kind. And I fluked into getting him.

    Few people genuinely change lives for the better. Good doctors and surgeons can do just that. I just wish I'd thanked him more whilst he was still alive.
    He is the first few results from googling "Professor Sid" :smile:
    He was also apparently neurosurgeon for three presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. Though of course I was his most famous patient. ;)
    One of his last interviews, for Motorsport magazine, shows the effect he had on the sport over the years:
    https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/archive/article/december-2008/78/lunch-professor-sid-watkins

    When I’d first worked at Silverstone the medical centre was a primitive hut, staffed by Red Cross people. There’d be some ambulances and doctors, but nothing very sophisticated. When I took a proper team up to the British Grand Prix in 1973 – another neurosurgeon, an anaesthetist, a cardiac doctor, an orthopaedist and a nursing sister – I was told we weren’t necessary for an F1 weekend, and our presence would be more appropriate at a club race where they had more accidents. :open_mouth:
    He once told me that he was concerned about the number of back injuries in the sport. It would take a few years for removable seats to be introduced (so the driver could be removed in the seat), so he worked with one of the teams to produce two boards. One could be slid under the drivers bottom, and the other behind his back, and they would then be locked together, allowing the driver to be removed without moving his back.

    He said it was being used in junior formulae as well, and had already saved several young kids from serious back injuries.

    Yet nobody much knew about it.
    My elder son worked for FOM for many years and Prof Sid was very helpful when he had a nasty episode at the Hungary race some years ago. Was very sad when he died.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    The main surprise to me about the the current Afghanolypse is that despite the attempts of various hysterics to portray it as such, it is not a -lypse. So far (very much touchwood) the Taliban have not turned Kabul into 1975 Phnom Penh, and much of the horror show is so far down to the chaos overseen by ‘us’(the West). I realise it takes only one itchy trigger-fingered young Pashtun to blow it all up and no doubt what the Taliban are doing and will do is horrific, but in the context of Yemen or the Uighur or Boko Haram’s various activities does it really stand out?

    Have the Taliban top trumps made a pragmatic decision that if they want to set up their quasi fascist state they have to let the West get out relatively unimpeded?

    Quite possibly.
    If the current foreign aid were to be withdrawn rapidly, the economy would collapse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited August 2021
    The UK has "hours now, not weeks" to evacuate people from Afghanistan, the defence secretary has said. Ben Wallace said troops would leave Kabul's airport when the US withdraws, which is due to happen on 31 August.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58302734
This discussion has been closed.