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The next domino? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,215

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    That is true ... but the homes would then simply be bought up by more second homers.

    @noneoftheabove is correct that this has to be dealt with through property taxes.
    The only problem being, that if you get rid of second homes, in many cases, the local would have home. Hurrah!

    Except that they wouldn't have the somewhat shitty seasonal employment/income from the outsiders.. Boo!

    Perhaps growing the local economy in some other way might be an idea. But that would mean building things. Boo!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mr. Malmesbury, with less office working, villages and towns become more viable.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Interesting. I'm planning to visit Jason next year... will add to the possibles list.
    Also took me down a Wikipedia maze, which led to possibly the most bonkers weapon system of WWII...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aichi_M6A
    (Though there's plenty of competition for that title.)
    Nah, the most bonkers weapons system was the Me 328:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_Me_328
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited August 2021

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    That is true ... but the homes would then simply be bought up by more second homers.

    @noneoftheabove is correct that this has to be dealt with through property taxes.
    The only problem being, that if you get rid of second homes, in many cases, the local would have home. Hurrah!

    Except that they wouldn't have the somewhat shitty seasonal employment/income from the outsiders.. Boo!

    Perhaps growing the local economy in some other way might be an idea. But that would mean building things. Boo!
    Local economies are secondary issues, and being honest I know no one who lives in a holiday resort who likes the tourists

    And a lot of those local jobs are actually unfillable at the moment as there are no local workers left able and willing to do the jobs.

    I remember an application my wife was doing a while back where it stated the application would create 4 local jobs and she wondered which of the multimillionaire weekenders would be doing the room cleaning being offered
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,333

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    You can't deny it's a concern, though, even if it's far from proven.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited August 2021
    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    There’s a chilling movie to be made about this crisis one day. An old man in his dressing gown, whistling at the birds through the window of his holiday home. Cut to the streets of Kabul. As Taliban soldiers burst through a door daubed with pink paint into a family home, upending a bird cage as they begin to wreak their terrible revenge.

    There must be 1001 tales of extraordinary heroism and sacrifice taking place right now. While that bumbling fool gets irate about how many days it’s been since human souls fell from an aeroplane in front of the eyes of the world.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited August 2021



    The only problem being, that if you get rid of second homes, in many cases, the local would have home. Hurrah!

    Except that they wouldn't have the somewhat shitty seasonal employment/income from the outsiders.. Boo!

    Perhaps growing the local economy in some other way might be an idea. But that would mean building things. Boo!

    But, only a few posts ago you were celebrating WFH! Hurrah!

    So, it is perfectly possible to live in Wales, or Southwold, or Cornwall, in your only home, W-ing FH, and growing the local economy that way. Hurrah!

    Problem fixed. Hurrah!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,533

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    Not just the design; damage control practices were poor as well.

    The Taiho was a classic. It was supposed to be a 'better' carrier design, and more able to cope with damage.

    It got hit by one torpedo from a US submarine, which should not have crippled it. However the hit ruptured the aviation gas tanks. It continued operating sorties whilst fuel leaked into an elevator pit. Fumes started filling the hangers, and someone ordered the ventilation fans on, spreading the fumes throughout the ship. Over six hours after the torpedo hit, it blew up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Taihō
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,420
    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/p6vx65/moderna_gives_bigger_antibody_boost_than_pfizer/

    Bored2001 has done the work on the odds ratio vaccine vs virus.......

    A healthy 18 year old with no comorbidities is literally 2832x more likely to be hospitalized getting from COVID than they are from getting heart inflammation from the vaccine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,333

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    Thirdly, it's clear that prior infection (w/ vax) produces lasting immunity. Efficacy is still >90% after 3 months, so breakthrough risk is 70% lower than w/ vac alone. (NB: studies of prior infection on its own also find ~90% after a year). Some hopeful news for herd immunity. https://t.co/BwZqgYGodd

    -----

    So we all just need to get it now.....

    What will be interesting is if as some early data suggests Moderna is both highest protection of all current vaccines and slowest to wane, what is the secret sauce compared to other mRNA vaccine, Pfizer.
    Three times the equivalent dosage is probably a clue...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited August 2021
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    Most locals don’t service the tourist industry which is why the lakes was full of Eastern Europeans working in the tourism industry and why now most hotels and pubs have serious staff shortages
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,215

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Interesting. I'm planning to visit Jason next year... will add to the possibles list.
    Also took me down a Wikipedia maze, which led to possibly the most bonkers weapon system of WWII...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aichi_M6A
    (Though there's plenty of competition for that title.)
    Nah, the most bonkers weapons system was the Me 328:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_Me_328
    To misquote Lincoln - "When a man advocates a pulse jet propelled aircraft, I have a strong desire to see him in it."
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    tlg86 said:

    Whilst I don’t think the government has handled Afghanistan especially well, I’d be amazed if this makes any difference to public opinion on the parties. It feels like another example of the media being disconnected from the ordinary people. As sad as the situation is, this is really low down the list of priorities.

    I disagree. Major foreign affairs cock-ups affect the zeitgeist. The Johnson and Raab indifference, finger pointing and lack of agency has not gone unnoticed. While voters may forgive the Conservative Party, this constant drip, drip, drip of Johnson ministry incompetence is going to result in a leadership crisis. The only question is when?
    Agreed, old school Tories must be wondering if it is time for the stalking horse....... (remember 1989?)
    With what is happening now you wonder if they could put up someone like Johnny Mercer, sacked for demanding the government uphold a manifesto pledge to veterans.

    Then again, they'd probably put up John Redwood again. Or Desmond Swayne...
    That was surely the old system. Nowadays it is a matter of sufficient MPs sending letters to Graham Brady - as happened to Theresa May.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,558

    Just watched Biden giving a press conference on covid and he just walked off the stage without a word about Afghanistan

    Furthermore in an interview he is unmoved and just gives the impression he doesn't care

    This is terrible for the US reputation and leaves the world in a very different and insecure place

    He gives the impression that he doesn't care because he doesn't care.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
    Avoiding the question I see. Any if you really think that the UK approach was similar to the Chinese, you are deluded.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    edited August 2021
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    You can't deny it's a concern, though, even if it's far from proven.
    It does seem to be a big concern for Leon, but then each week there are a couple of looming end of the world scenarios in Leon world. Reagan had dementia and a lot of the people most "concerned" about Biden think of Reagan as a great President.

    Should it be a concern to Biden's family, his doctors, cabinet, White House staff etc then sure. I am far less concerned about the US presidency now than for most of 2016-2020 though, and think for the average Brit, that is rightly so.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    It is straightforward. You just don't want to do it.

    In (coastal) Wales, there are many towns that are just almost deserted from Sep-May.

    The locals don't have a job and they can't live in the town.
    Not true. My wife is there for family reasons. I would be more than happy if the house cost half as much as it did and I have no reason to go there and mostly don't. I'm trying to be practical.

    As is typical here people often come up with very simple solutions without thinking that they might just be more complicated than and with unforeseen consequences.

    PS In Southwold's case it is not deserted from Sep - May, although it is horrible in Aug.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,215
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    While snobbery plays a part, most people want a second home for holidays on the basis of

    - No fuss about booking the holiday.
    - Reliable place - it's home!
    - Cheaper than the ever escalating prices to get a holiday in a "good place"

    Very few people are rich enough to want to pay for snob value.

    a) Stilt houses in the marshes :-) :-) If it was good enough in the Paleolithic.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Dominic Raab has refused to resign as foreign secretary following demands from Labour and the Liberal Democrats after it emerged he did not make a vital phone call about evacuating Afghan interpreters while he was on holiday https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-will-have-blood-on-hands-if-it-abandons-our-families-say-afghan-interpreters-g5tr6h6t3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629371862
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Scott_xP said:

    Dominic Raab has refused to resign as foreign secretary following demands from Labour and the Liberal Democrats after it emerged he did not make a vital phone call about evacuating Afghan interpreters while he was on holiday https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-will-have-blood-on-hands-if-it-abandons-our-families-say-afghan-interpreters-g5tr6h6t3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629371862

    How "vital" can a phone call to a disintegrating government be?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,215
    edited August 2021

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    Not just the design; damage control practices were poor as well.

    The Taiho was a classic. It was supposed to be a 'better' carrier design, and more able to cope with damage.

    It got hit by one torpedo from a US submarine, which should not have crippled it. However the hit ruptured the aviation gas tanks. It continued operating sorties whilst fuel leaked into an elevator pit. Fumes started filling the hangers, and someone ordered the ventilation fans on, spreading the fumes throughout the ship. Over six hours after the torpedo hit, it blew up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Taihō
    The Americans had the best damage control, and following on from some advice from the RN in WWI, rather good design against damage.

    EDIT: though when US practise - safety via discipline and practise - mixed with RN safety-by-design the results were not alway favourable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,984
    edited August 2021
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Interesting. I'm planning to visit Jason next year... will add to the possibles list.
    Also took me down a Wikipedia maze, which led to possibly the most bonkers weapon system of WWII...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aichi_M6A
    (Though there's plenty of competition for that title.)
    That little submarine launched Japanese floatplane could carry more than double the bomb load of a Stuka for about double the range.

    One plan was to deliver biological / chemical weapons to West Coast USA cities, which it could have done.

    Wartime Japan had special bombs which could carry bubonic plague, cholera, smallpox, botulism, anthrax etc. They had previous killed around half a million Chinese that way.

    All horrific. in the end the Japanese military decided against it.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cherry_Blossoms_at_Night

    Comparable background in China to the experience of allied War Prisoners.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    How much is the US subsidising the UK’s Trident nuclear weapons system? Trident is 100% dependent on the Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, in Georgia. What if ‘America First’ means that they are no longer happy with puppet states holding the trigger on their (extraordinarily expensive) weapons system?

    The UK made a strategic error when it abandoned its independent nuclear deterrent and became dependent on US goodwill. That goodwill was always going to run out some day.

    How else could the UK deliver nuclear warheads?

    - heavy bombers?
    - tank rounds?
    - mortar rounds?
    - drone?
    - Boris Bikes?

    I'd be delighted if the US would rid us of Trident, but I suspect Britain would find a way. One option would be to work more closely with the French, with whom we already have a close bilateral defence relationship.

    Given the scenario you posit would almost certainly involve the US leaving NATO, a much closer defence relationship with France in response would be inevitable. Doesn't seem like a stretch for that to include burden-sharing on a nuclear deterrent.

    A more left-field option would be Japan. One could imagine that a scenario where the US stepped away from Europe would leave its Pacific allies nervous about the reliability of the US as a protector against China. Although Japan might be willing and able to develop a nuclear deterrent alone, they might find it easier politically to do so as part of a partnership with Britain.
    We of course cannot and must not ever give up our nuclear deterrent.

    We need it to protect against Russia just as Japan needs one to protect against China
    On the same basis, every other Western European state needs its own nuclear deterrent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    edited August 2021
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    How much is the US subsidising the UK’s Trident nuclear weapons system? Trident is 100% dependent on the Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, in Georgia. What if ‘America First’ means that they are no longer happy with puppet states holding the trigger on their (extraordinarily expensive) weapons system?

    The UK made a strategic error when it abandoned its independent nuclear deterrent and became dependent on US goodwill. That goodwill was always going to run out some day.

    How else could the UK deliver nuclear warheads?

    - heavy bombers?
    - tank rounds?
    - mortar rounds?
    - drone?
    - Boris Bikes?

    I'd be delighted if the US would rid us of Trident, but I suspect Britain would find a way. One option would be to work more closely with the French, with whom we already have a close bilateral defence relationship.

    Given the scenario you posit would almost certainly involve the US leaving NATO, a much closer defence relationship with France in response would be inevitable. Doesn't seem like a stretch for that to include burden-sharing on a nuclear deterrent.

    A more left-field option would be Japan. One could imagine that a scenario where the US stepped away from Europe would leave its Pacific allies nervous about the reliability of the US as a protector against China. Although Japan might be willing and able to develop a nuclear deterrent alone, they might find it easier politically to do so as part of a partnership with Britain.
    We of course cannot and must not ever give up our nuclear deterrent.

    We need it to protect against Russia just as Japan needs one to protect against China
    On the same basis, every other Western European state needs its own nuclear deterrent.
    They are (mostly) in NATO, which includes the UK and France.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
    Avoiding the question I see. Any if you really think that the UK approach was similar to the Chinese, you are deluded.
    The UK's approach was closer to Chinese approach than to the approach of previous UK governments. We never quarantined the healthy in the past. Meanwhile formerly free governments like Australia and New Zealand are becoming little Chinas where all notions of liberty and freedom are grinding to a halt

    People around the world aren't stupid. They can see the way of the authoritarian is gaining ground, thanks in part to people like yourself. Scorning people fighting for freedom at every turn.

    But keep going. 100 more Afghanistans await.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
    Avoiding the question I see. Any if you really think that the UK approach was similar to the Chinese, you are deluded.
    The UK's approach was closer to Chinese approach than to the approach of previous UK governments. We never quarantined the healthy in the past. Meanwhile formerly free governments like Australia and New Zealand are becoming little Chinas where all notions of liberty and freedom are grinding to a halt

    People around the world aren't stupid. They can see the way of the authoritarian is gaining ground, thanks in part to people like yourself. Scorning people fighting for freedom at every turn.

    But keep going. 100 more Afghanistans await.
    Yes we did. See the plague.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951
    eek said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    Most locals don’t service the tourist industry which is why the lakes was full of Eastern Europeans working in the tourism industry and why now most hotels and pubs have serious staff shortages
    They do in Southwold. With the exception of the brewery (and in reality that is vey tourist focused) it is 100% tourist employment in Southwold. See Wikipedia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,215

    Mr. Malmesbury, with less office working, villages and towns become more viable.

    Only if you allow the development that this will bring. For example, not every village cottage would be wonderful for WFH. Also, some centralised services would be useful. So a business centre - rentable desks, coffee shop etc.

    When I lived in Malmesbury, some of the incomers went to war to prevent a local farmer converting a stable yard in exactly that way. There was a big demand for it locally - usually from the incomers protesting about Development! Boo! Hisssss!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,845
    Scott_xP said:

    How can Boris Johnson allow the Foreign Secretary to continue in his role after yet another catastrophic failure of judgement?

    If Dominic Raab doesn't have the decency to resign, the Prime Minister must show a shred of leadership and sack him

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58265160
    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1428292534984396805

    Scott n paste repastes the repaste of the repaste of the repaste...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1428284091905056769

    Astonishing that people still support going back in

    Hardly surprising 41% of British voters support sending troops back in if it prevents future terrorist attacks on Britain on those Yougov numbers
    The 1001 post from you claiming Islamic terror is seeded and financed from Kabul rather than Riyadh.
    Did Bin Laden launch 9/11 from Saudi Arabia? No Al Qaeda's training camps were in Afghanistan and then he fled to Pakistan where special forces killed him.

    Bin Laden may have been born in Saudi but he pursued terror from Sudan, then Afghanistan then lastly Pakistan not Saudi Arabia
    The Afghan war has killed 250k people, there's been great suffering and damage over and above that, it's cost a couple of trillion dollars, and this is not to mention Iraq. For all the horror of 9/11, which is what triggered these invasions, it wasn't a rational response. If you were to draw up a pros and con balance sheet for the whole enterprise, pros = assets, cons = liabilities, it'd be going straight into receivership, no chance whatsoever of any white knight riding to the rescue. So, sure, we can debate the reasons for such a terrible mistake (eg was it doomed from the outset or was it the execution?) and also how understandable a mistake it was (9/11 WAS a horror after all), but there is surely no-one of sound mind remaining who doesn't now feel it was a terrible mistake. I know it can be hard for people to admit to agreement with figures as divisive and controversial as Jeremy Corbyn and @IanB2, but I think that's where we are with this one.
    For $2 trillion we could have employed every Afghan adult @ $5,000 per year for 20 years, and not even had any output from them. Given their median wage is closer to $1,000 a year, this would have tied them into the rest of the world far more than the occupation did.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,845
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1428284091905056769

    Astonishing that people still support going back in

    Hardly surprising 41% of British voters support sending troops back in if it prevents future terrorist attacks on Britain on those Yougov numbers
    The 1001 post from you claiming Islamic terror is seeded and financed from Kabul rather than Riyadh.
    Did Bin Laden launch 9/11 from Saudi Arabia? No Al Qaeda's training camps were in Afghanistan and then he fled to Pakistan where special forces killed him.

    Bin Laden may have been born in Saudi but he pursued terror from Sudan, then Afghanistan then lastly Pakistan not Saudi Arabia
    Speaking of Pakistan, did you hear about Imran Khan welcoming the Taliban takeover?
    Yes but the problem with Pakistan is Khan knows he may have to do that to stay in power.

    Get rid of Khan and you may well get someone even worse, though Benazir Bhutto's son Bilawal, now leader of the PPP party, would probably be the best Pakistani PM from a western point of view.

    He has already attacked Khan over his Taliban comments
    https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/pakistan-news/bilawal-bhutto-slams-pakistan-pm-imrans-u-turn-on-afghanistan-crisis-calls-out-terrorism.html
    Pakistan recognised the Taliban last time, seems obvious theyd back the new pr friendly cuddly taliban.
    We should refuse to.play Cricket against them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,333

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    You can't deny it's a concern, though, even if it's far from proven.
    It does seem to be a big concern for Leon, but then each week there are a couple of looming end of the world scenarios in Leon world. Reagan had dementia and a lot of the people most "concerned" about Biden think of Reagan as a great President.

    Should it be a concern to Biden's family, his doctors, cabinet, White House staff etc then sure. I am far less concerned about the US presidency now than for most of 2016-2020 though, and think for the average Brit, that is rightly so.
    Leon is an extreme outlier, though, in the ability to see every shadow as a threat to civilisation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    New thread.
  • Mr. Malmesbury, with less office working, villages and towns become more viable.

    Only if you allow the development that this will bring. For example, not every village cottage would be wonderful for WFH. Also, some centralised services would be useful. So a business centre - rentable desks, coffee shop etc.

    When I lived in Malmesbury, some of the incomers went to war to prevent a local farmer converting a stable yard in exactly that way. There was a big demand for it locally - usually from the incomers protesting about Development! Boo! Hisssss!
    Village? Rentable desks? Coffee Shop you say? Exactly my back-up plan for this former bank I now own.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    While snobbery plays a part, most people want a second home for holidays on the basis of

    - No fuss about booking the holiday.
    - Reliable place - it's home!
    - Cheaper than the ever escalating prices to get a holiday in a "good place"

    Very few people are rich enough to want to pay for snob value.

    a) Stilt houses in the marshes :-) :-) If it was good enough in the Paleolithic.....
    I am starting to think with all these replies by me that Southwold just might be the exception (see last post on employment) to what I thought were a host of 2nd home concentrations in the pretty parts of the country, but Southwold is very much a snobby place to have a 2nd home (ok not all). It is stuffed full of luvvies. I could name drop till the cows came home.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,533

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    Not just the design; damage control practices were poor as well.

    The Taiho was a classic. It was supposed to be a 'better' carrier design, and more able to cope with damage.

    It got hit by one torpedo from a US submarine, which should not have crippled it. However the hit ruptured the aviation gas tanks. It continued operating sorties whilst fuel leaked into an elevator pit. Fumes started filling the hangers, and someone ordered the ventilation fans on, spreading the fumes throughout the ship. Over six hours after the torpedo hit, it blew up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Taihō
    The Americans had the best damage control, and following on from some advice from the RN in WWI, rather good design against damage.

    EDIT: though when US practise - safety via discipline and practise - mixed with RN safety-by-design the results were not alway favourable.
    Drachinifel has, on occasion, mentioned some amazing stories of American damage control, where they saved ships that should have been lost, sometimes at the cost of their own lives.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    kjh said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    Most locals don’t service the tourist industry which is why the lakes was full of Eastern Europeans working in the tourism industry and why now most hotels and pubs have serious staff shortages
    They do in Southwold. With the exception of the brewery (and in reality that is vey tourist focused) it is 100% tourist employment in Southwold. See Wikipedia.
    So no teachers, nurses, post office, banks, supermarkets presumably?

    Nowhere in the UK is 100% tourist employment, even if it was written on pb.com, let alone wikipedia.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,733
    Scott_xP said:

    Dominic Raab has refused to resign as foreign secretary following demands from Labour and the Liberal Democrats after it emerged he did not make a vital phone call about evacuating Afghan interpreters while he was on holiday https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-will-have-blood-on-hands-if-it-abandons-our-families-say-afghan-interpreters-g5tr6h6t3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629371862

    I don't expect him to resign. Hancock did off his own bat because he knew he'd become a laughing stock and couldn't do the job, but the whole 'PM demands resignation to protect and uphold standards real and perceived' is for the moment dead. This is because the PM is Boris Johnson and so things won't change until it isn't. They may still not, of course, depending on who we get, but the deJohnsoning of number 10 is imo a prerequisite.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
    Avoiding the question I see. Any if you really think that the UK approach was similar to the Chinese, you are deluded.
    The UK's approach was closer to Chinese approach than to the approach of previous UK governments. We never quarantined the healthy in the past. Meanwhile formerly free governments like Australia and New Zealand are becoming little Chinas where all notions of liberty and freedom are grinding to a halt

    People around the world aren't stupid. They can see the way of the authoritarian is gaining ground, thanks in part to people like yourself. Scorning people fighting for freedom at every turn.

    But keep going. 100 more Afghanistans await.
    Yes we did. See the plague.
    As I say, 100 more Afghanistans await. You could see it at the House of Commons yesterday. The MPs on all sides were struggling to comprehend how they had got here.

    You got here because you don't believe in anything. You certainly don't believe in liberty, democracy or human rights.

    Afghanistan is simply a devastating verdict on the fact that you are no longer champions of Western values. No longer champions of anything.

    It won't be the last.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lots of comments over the past couple of days about the world becoming a more dangerous place, well why wouldn't this be?

    Our government wholesale rejected any kind of Western approach to solving its problems in favour of the Chinese Communist Party's solutions. Lockdown. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.

    Meanwhile authorities trying to find solutions in line with Western principles are dismissed on here as 'shit-kickers' who can 'choke on their own lungs'.

    The Chinese communists really don't need to do much when there are so many in the West willing to do their jobs for them. Their approach is being swallowed wholesale.

    Its extraordinary that anybody is surprised when other countries like Afghanistan reject a philosophy long since junked by its own apologists, and turn to our enemies.

    Let me guess, a Western approach would have been to do nothing?
    Your approach is the CCP's approach. Your future is the CCP's future.
    Avoiding the question I see. Any if you really think that the UK approach was similar to the Chinese, you are deluded.
    The UK's approach was closer to Chinese approach than to the approach of previous UK governments. We never quarantined the healthy in the past. Meanwhile formerly free governments like Australia and New Zealand are becoming little Chinas where all notions of liberty and freedom are grinding to a halt

    People around the world aren't stupid. They can see the way of the authoritarian is gaining ground, thanks in part to people like yourself. Scorning people fighting for freedom at every turn.

    But keep going. 100 more Afghanistans await.
    Yes we did. See the plague.
    As I say, 100 more Afghanistans await. You could see it at the House of Commons yesterday. The MPs on all sides were struggling to comprehend how they had got here.

    You got here because you don't believe in anything. You certainly don't believe in liberty, democracy or human rights.

    Afghanistan is simply a devastating verdict on the fact that you are no longer champions of Western values. No longer champions of anything.

    It won't be the last.

    So because I don't support doing nothing as the grand plan for dealing with Covid means I don't believe in anything? For goodness sake liberty doesn't mean you are free to do things that endanger other people during a global pandemic.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    SavantaComRes

    Con 41 =
    Lab 34 (+1)
    Ldm 9 (-1)
    Grn 4 =

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1428301420093218822?s=19

    On a GB basis this would be Con 42 Lab 35.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951
    edited August 2021

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    I know you are being tongue in cheek, but:

    a) Southwold does not have a patch of grass to build any more homes, it is bound by marshes and the sea. It is full to bursting of Victorian/Edwardian terraces.

    b) The demand for homes in Southwold is entirely generated by 2nd home owners. Locals live outside, mainly next door in Reydon. As soon as you cross the bridge house prices halve immediately.

    c) If there was somewhere to build lots of houses to bring houses down in price the reason for the 2nd home owners going there (snobbery) would disappear so then houses prices would be admittedly cheap again and there would be no jobs for the locals to service the hoi polloi.

    I'm sure this is true for other popular 2nd home areas.
    Most locals don’t service the tourist industry which is why the lakes was full of Eastern Europeans working in the tourism industry and why now most hotels and pubs have serious staff shortages
    They do in Southwold. With the exception of the brewery (and in reality that is vey tourist focused) it is 100% tourist employment in Southwold. See Wikipedia.
    So no teachers, nurses, post office, banks, supermarkets presumably?

    Nowhere in the UK is 100% tourist employment, even if it was written on pb.com, let alone wikipedia.
    No school, no hospital, one post office which is mainly a tourist shop. I grant you there is a Barclay's bank. Southwold until recently kept out all chain stores, some have been allowed to come in now provided they open in the style of the other shops. So there is a small Co-op and small Tesco's store now, but guess who they serve - all the 2nd home owners who own nearly all the houses. In our terrace there is only one local, our neighbour who is an 80 year old single lady.

    PS apparently there is a primary school according to Wikipedia, although I know the area well and have never seen it and know where it is described to be. bet the teachers don't live in Southwold though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,984

    Point of information: in Scotland, each council has discretion to apply a discount of between 10% and 50% on second homes, or may choose to apply no discount.

    No idea how that compares with E, NI or W.

    In they can apply an extra weighting to increase the cost of owning a second home aiui.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,039

    Taz said:

    Looks like we need updated vaccines ASAP.....winter is going to be bad.

    Given you’re a sensible commenter on such matters, unlike a few here, and not given to overly melodramatic twaddle why do you say that about winter ?

    Vaccines are being updated and we have been told they can be tweaked. Be interesting to know how it is going.
    The data is showing significant waning of protection after 6 months and double whammy that a break through infected individual is just as infectious as an unvaccinated person. Both of these factors weren't true / thought to be true vs original or alpha variant.

    Add on the start point for the winter will be fairly high levels of covid in society, as we have seen during the low season, i.e. summer + schools out, the background level of covid aren't disappearing like last year.

    We keep being told the vaccines can be tweaked, but it doesn't seem we will get them this winter (MaxPB knows a lot more about this than me).
    The bolded bit is not quite true.

    A breakthrough infection does peak at similar viral loading to an unvaccinated infected person, but drops off a lot faster.

    For example, taking the derived data and adding in a line at a Ct of 30 (about where the threshold of infectivity lies):


    Which implies that a breakthrough-infected person is infectious for about 60% of the length of time that an unvaccinated infected person is. Which does make a difference when we're looking at a population-level R number.

    Add to that the fact that breakthrough infections are considerably rarer than straightforward infections. Say, for argument, that AZ is 70% effective at preventing infections long-term against Delta. We can graphically show that like this:


    So every 10 unvaccinated people exposed to the point where they would expect to be infected should give 145 person-days of transmissibility.
    Every 10 vaccinated people exposed to a similar point should give 25.5 person-days of transmissibility.

    That reduction of between 5-fold and 6-fold in transmissibility of a vaccinated population versus an unvaccinated population will be behind a considerable part of the way that cases haven't run away in the UK after such a huge relaxation of restrictions.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,951
    OK so defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,344
    News from a Cumbrian pub.

    Heineken has not delivered any keg beer this week. And now it has cancelled orders placed for next week. So unless it can be obtained for from other wholesalers, in the lead up to the Bank Holiday weekend, pubs will run out of this sort of beer.

    Brilliant. Just fucking brilliant.
  • Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    Not just the design; damage control practices were poor as well.

    The Taiho was a classic. It was supposed to be a 'better' carrier design, and more able to cope with damage.

    It got hit by one torpedo from a US submarine, which should not have crippled it. However the hit ruptured the aviation gas tanks. It continued operating sorties whilst fuel leaked into an elevator pit. Fumes started filling the hangers, and someone ordered the ventilation fans on, spreading the fumes throughout the ship. Over six hours after the torpedo hit, it blew up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Taihō
    The Americans had the best damage control, and following on from some advice from the RN in WWI, rather good design against damage.

    EDIT: though when US practise - safety via discipline and practise - mixed with RN safety-by-design the results were not alway favourable.
    Although having an armoured flight deck helped RN aircraft carriers absorb more bomb damage.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1428284091905056769

    Astonishing that people still support going back in

    Hardly surprising 41% of British voters support sending troops back in if it prevents future terrorist attacks on Britain on those Yougov numbers
    The 1001 post from you claiming Islamic terror is seeded and financed from Kabul rather than Riyadh.
    Did Bin Laden launch 9/11 from Saudi Arabia? No Al Qaeda's training camps were in Afghanistan and then he fled to Pakistan where special forces killed him.

    Bin Laden may have been born in Saudi but he pursued terror from Sudan, then Afghanistan then lastly Pakistan not Saudi Arabia
    Speaking of Pakistan, did you hear about Imran Khan welcoming the Taliban takeover?
    Yes but the problem with Pakistan is Khan knows he may have to do that to stay in power.

    Get rid of Khan and you may well get someone even worse, though Benazir Bhutto's son Bilawal, now leader of the PPP party, would probably be the best Pakistani PM from a western point of view.

    He has already attacked Khan over his Taliban comments
    https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/pakistan-news/bilawal-bhutto-slams-pakistan-pm-imrans-u-turn-on-afghanistan-crisis-calls-out-terrorism.html
    So after spending days defending the fact that Pakistan offerer sanctuary for the Taliban and al'Qaeda, offering the training grounds from which the Taliban recouped and rebuilt ... You're now defending Pakistan for welcoming the Taliban takeover the facilitated.

    You've never been serious about wanting the Taliban actually tackled have you? It's just about appearances to you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,178
    edited August 2021
    New Thread
This discussion has been closed.