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The next domino? – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    kamski said:

    Dura_Ace said:




    For a start, I would like to know how many interpreters etc (plus families) each country was involved with in Afghanistan.

    I cannot find even vague estimates of this online - anyone?

    The last significant number of troops from an EU nation in Afghanistan were Poland who left in 2011. So not many would be my guess.
    There were 1300 Germans in Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission in February this year according to Wikipedia.

    In June German foreign minister Heiko Maas said Germany would have to give visas to 20000 people if they included not only those who worked for the German military, but also those who worked for German aid agencies etc.
    You're right. My mistake. I was thinking of combat troops.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    Pulpstar said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    Well they don't need the home in London then do they in that case.
    WFH in Cornwall and a pied de terre in Lindon? For the monthly meeting?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    Same people who criticise Starmer for not opposing the government enough and being anonymous get upset when he does oppose them, quelle surprise.
  • Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    MIkasa is the ONLY preserved "pre-dreadnought" battleship to have been built ANYWHERE!

    The only other survivor from the WW1-era is the dreadnought Texas, preserved at San Jacinto.
    Er, Shouldn't 'preserved' and 'built' be transposed? But yes, I entirely agree.
    I meant it's not just the only surviving British-built "pre-dreadnought". It is the only "pre-dreadnought" full stop.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Boris will not be there forever and the conservatives are my choice for covid, the economy and brexit


    Brexit is done, how is that a future voting issue?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    Don't forget the election campaign he spent most of the time in his basement. His appearances were limited and carefully managed. Being president, it requires decisions 24/7, otherwise things go south quickly.

    My guess is that when he gets tired, he starts to get confused and doesn't function very well. Election, they made sure he was well rested before his appearances. As POTUS you can't choose when you need to be doing things.
    You need to be pretty extraordinary to be a good ruler. Youd need to be really really extraordinary and lucky to be a good ruler when very old or very young.

    Possible, but surely rarer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259

    Pulpstar said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    Well they don't need the home in London then do they in that case.
    WFH in Cornwall and a pied de terre in Lindon? For the monthly meeting?
    The recent move to WFH means that many people with "second homes" are planning on spending more time in them and less in their London properties (if they have them).
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    As well as the Wiltshire PCC election there are 6 local by-elections today. There are Con defences in Ashford, Dover, and Rutland, LD defences in 2 wards in Ribble Valley, an SNP defence in Aberdeenshire, and an Ind (elected as Con) defence in East Riding of Yorkshire.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    MattW said:

    Talking of the Lake District, when is this get-together Chez @Cyclefree Minor happening?

    We promised.

    You are all welcome of course. Though I note that some of you have already been holidaying here without visiting or perhaps you did, incognito as it were.

    Anyway have work to do today.

    Before I go I note that the London Mayor might need some advice on how to deal with whistleblowers. Sacking people who raise concerns, without looking into those concerns, is not wise. And may be a breach of his whistleblowing policy - if the Mayoralty has one (and, if not, it damn well should) - and/or employment law.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/campaigner-joan-smith-sacked-over-concerns-about-trans-women-using-refuges-2czj9tqs8

    On topic I take @IanB2's point that there is a difference between occupying a country and defending an existing democracy. Nonetheless I think that even the latter will be worrying about how reliable an ally the US really will be. And if they do and decide to arm themselves independently of the US then the world becomes a whole load more dangerous - including for the US.

  • Dura_Ace said:



    Boris will not be there forever and the conservatives are my choice for covid, the economy and brexit


    Brexit is done, how is that a future voting issue?
    Brexit has happened but there are many who want it reversed
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    Including the Fringe as well as the official Festivals, I presume?

    The default "Edinburgh Festival" is the arty one in August - the books and film and science ones are much smaller and entirely laudable (though I'd prefer them at different times than August for obvious reasons: the science one is already quite separate). It's the arty one in August that is obese and intrusive.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    How can Boris Johnson allow the Foreign Secretary to continue in his role after yet another catastrophic failure of judgement?

    If Dominic Raab doesn't have the decency to resign, the Prime Minister must show a shred of leadership and sack him

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58265160
    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1428292534984396805

    But Boris was also caught napping.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Dura_Ace said:



    Boris will not be there forever and the conservatives are my choice for covid, the economy and brexit


    Brexit is done, how is that a future voting issue?
    Brexit has happened but there are many who want it reversed
    Still to work its way through the digestive system before its full majesty is revealed. Notably in the imposition of UK import controls.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    slade said:

    As well as the Wiltshire PCC election there are 6 local by-elections today. There are Con defences in Ashford, Dover, and Rutland, LD defences in 2 wards in Ribble Valley, an SNP defence in Aberdeenshire, and an Ind (elected as Con) defence in East Riding of Yorkshire.

    Dover could be 'interesting'. Or am I jumping to conclusions?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    One point about the housing market, there's certainly no free market in terms of supply of housing - so the free market shouldn't determine demand. Weighting against landlords and in favour of owner occupation is something that very much should be done (Osborne thankfully started that process - we should go further) and will be good for us.
    It's in the Tories self interest too, OOs generally vote Tory more than renters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    MIkasa is the ONLY preserved "pre-dreadnought" battleship to have been built ANYWHERE!

    The only other survivor from the WW1-era is the dreadnought Texas, preserved at San Jacinto.
    Er, Shouldn't 'preserved' and 'built' be transposed? But yes, I entirely agree.
    I meant it's not just the only surviving British-built "pre-dreadnought". It is the only "pre-dreadnought" full stop.
    Agreed; Warrior is too far up the line of evolution to be called a pre-dreadnought. Ditto Huascar.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    This is so sad, and ominous

    "One of the few female governors in Afghanistan, Salima Mazari, has been detained by the Taliban, the Times of India reported, quoting local reports."

    https://www.insider.com/taliban-reportedly-captures-female-governor-recruited-army-against-them-2021-8

    By the sounds of it, a remarkably brave and admirable woman. Might have made a better president than the shit they actually had.

    This is yet another reason why I think the Kabul Debacle will haunt Biden until he's gone. There will be endless stories like this. And many will be horrific
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    edited August 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    For the past few years, the fringe has been more important than the "official" festival, almost to the point where it has taken over so now established comics feel obliged to attend.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    He is exactly right, I did not hear one moderately sensible thing in Parliamnet yesterday on what BJ could have done to prevent what happened, the idea that the UK could lead a NATO force as some sort of peacekeeper was beyond crazy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    Including the Fringe as well as the official Festivals, I presume?

    The default "Edinburgh Festival" is the arty one in August - the books and film and science ones are much smaller and entirely laudable (though I'd prefer them at different times than August for obvious reasons: the science one is already quite separate). It's the arty one in August that is obese and intrusive.
    Yes, I’m lumping them all together. In the public perception they are all part of the same phenomenon.

    I personally can’t stand the Festival. Almost makes me gag thinking about it. There is something about all that faux and forced jollity - and profound and near-universal lack of ability and talent - that just brings out the misanthrope in me.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    That’s got to be correct. He has been around long enough for voters to know his strengths and flaws.

    This cannot, surely, shock people.
    He was never a towering colossus, but since his time as a solid steady VP under Obama, he has gone downhill significantly. There are just so many clips of him acting like a confused old man unable to remember what he is supposed to be doing or where he is supposed to be going.

    What is equally worrying is with the ditching of Trump it was supposed to ushering back in the professional political operators who are if nothing else reasonably competent.
    He's surprised most people in Congress with his handling, party management and success with legislation , so far. The difference was that this wasn't his initiative, so arguably this is a legacy of Trump's most confused gestures as much as anything else.
    That interview with Biden is nothing to do with ‘Trump’s legacy’, it’s a sad, inept, bewildered old man trying, and failing, to justify a foreign policy calamity of his making. It makes me depressed and deeply frustrated as a westerner. God know what it says to American voters
    I still wouldn't say it's fundamentally of his making, he's just in the hot seat. Before Trump he wanted to leave the skeleton staff of contractors in place there, like all the other top American politicos.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    When so many people can't even afford a first home, there's something a bit offputting about second homes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    There's a difference between 'not that doddering' and 'not doddering'. If he'd gotten appreciably worse by then compared to his regular state I don't know, maybe, and of course plenty just did not want him to win so looked for anythig. It felt a bit overplayed, as his stronger moments then looked even better by comparison, as people might go 'I thought it was past it, but he took down Senator nobody easily'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    For the past few years, the fringe has been more important than the "official" festival.
    Don't worry - the Fringe will become corporatised as well. Then someone will create the Fringe of the Fringe.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited August 2021

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    Thirdly, it's clear that prior infection (w/ vax) produces lasting immunity. Efficacy is still >90% after 3 months, so breakthrough risk is 70% lower than w/ vac alone. (NB: studies of prior infection on its own also find ~90% after a year). Some hopeful news for herd immunity. https://t.co/BwZqgYGodd

    -----

    So we all just need to get it now.....

    What will be interesting is if as some early data suggests Moderna is both highest protection of all current vaccines and slowest to wane, what is the secret sauce compared to other mRNA vaccine, Pfizer.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited August 2021

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Well, Malmesbury, you are only allowed one first home by HM Revenue and taxes.

    And it is defined here:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/first-homes

    You have to declare to HM Revenue which is your first home. Capital gains is exempt on your first home only.

    So, if you have two homes, you must ALREADY have declared one to HM revenue as your first home.

    The problem of Which is your first home and which is your second? is solved already.

    Phew....
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    Die Hundepfeife


    Fortunately, so far the AfD campaign hasn't been as effective as last time, I think.

    Last time they ran a snappy though obnoxious campaign, with a whole series of eye-catching often deliberately controversial posters (and social media ads), all with the slogan "Trau dich Deutschland" which obviously resonated with a few people.

    This was the one that probably got the most attention:
    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/31/16234008/germany-afd-ad-campaign-far-right
    "Burqas? We prefer bikinis"

    This time the slogan and title of their program is "Deutschland. Aber normal." which I think is kind of weak. It's also not being consistently used, their posters around here don't seem to have it at all. Maybe it appeals more in the former East Germany? In any case I think they have a less clear message this time. It might be also fortunate that the opportunistic polluting-industry lobby group the FDP have gone with a bit of an anti-lockdown message which might help prevent a few protest votes sliding to the AfD.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259
    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:

    Talking of the Lake District, when is this get-together Chez @Cyclefree Minor happening?

    We promised.

    You are all welcome of course. Though I note that some of you have already been holidaying here without visiting or perhaps you did, incognito as it were.

    Anyway have work to do today.

    Before I go I note that the London Mayor might need some advice on how to deal with whistleblowers. Sacking people who raise concerns, without looking into those concerns, is not wise. And may be a breach of his whistleblowing policy - if the Mayoralty has one (and, if not, it damn well should) - and/or employment law.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/campaigner-joan-smith-sacked-over-concerns-about-trans-women-using-refuges-2czj9tqs8

    On topic I take @IanB2's point that there is a difference between occupying a country and defending an existing democracy. Nonetheless I think that even the latter will be worrying about how reliable an ally the US really will be. And if they do and decide to arm themselves independently of the US then the world becomes a whole load more dangerous - including for the US.

    But Joan Smith spoke heresy. You can't give heretics a hearing or "justice" - they must be burnt. For their own sake.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both
    Plenty of politicians in the past have had serious health issues, or been poor orators. Some of them have even become President of the United States of America.

    That these things (health, excellent public speaking skills) are usually seen as a necessary prerequisite for becoming President (due to the necessity of appealing to the voting public) has little to no bearing on the quality of the office holder once they’ve achieved said high office.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both
    He is President because he was the most likely to beat Trump. Someone like Buttiegieg would be far better, as would several others but what the US needed was anyone but Trump, and that is Biden's role. I think it will be the same dynamic in 24.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    kamski said:

    Die Hundepfeife


    Fortunately, so far the AfD campaign hasn't been as effective as last time, I think.

    Last time they ran a snappy though obnoxious campaign, with a whole series of eye-catching often deliberately controversial posters (and social media ads), all with the slogan "Trau dich Deutschland" which obviously resonated with a few people.

    This was the one that probably got the most attention:
    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/31/16234008/germany-afd-ad-campaign-far-right
    "Burqas? We prefer bikinis"

    This time the slogan and title of their program is "Deutschland. Aber normal." which I think is kind of weak. It's also not being consistently used, their posters around here don't seem to have it at all. Maybe it appeals more in the former East Germany? In any case I think they have a less clear message this time. It might be also fortunate that the opportunistic polluting-industry lobby group the FDP have gone with a bit of an anti-lockdown message which might help prevent a few protest votes sliding to the AfD.
    Yes, 'X but normal' doesn't sound very inspiring out of context. They didn't want to go for 'X but better' in case of Trump comparisons or something?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    For the past few years, the fringe has been more important than the "official" festival, almost to the point where it has taken over so now established comics feel obliged to attend.
    I really wish they wouldn’t.

    It was jolly when D-list celebs like Julian Clary, Joe Mangle from Neighbours, and Bing Hitler used to temporarily increase Auld Reekie’s demand for drugs, but I really do wish the A-listers would just piss off. I mean, what’s the point?

    (Yes, I do realise that the answer is “money”, but that was never the objective of the great post-war festival innovators.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Dickson, you're unduly harsh on Boris Johnson.

    Being caught napping is a huge improvement on the hitherto typical act he got caught committing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    Including the Fringe as well as the official Festivals, I presume?

    The default "Edinburgh Festival" is the arty one in August - the books and film and science ones are much smaller and entirely laudable (though I'd prefer them at different times than August for obvious reasons: the science one is already quite separate). It's the arty one in August that is obese and intrusive.
    Yes, I’m lumping them all together. In the public perception they are all part of the same phenomenon.

    I personally can’t stand the Festival. Almost makes me gag thinking about it. There is something about all that faux and forced jollity - and profound and near-universal lack of ability and talent - that just brings out the misanthrope in me.
    I've been involved in the science festival in the past - quite down to earth and some really good stuff there. The book and film festivals are also more under control. And plenty of family stuff in all three which is good.

    They aren't commercialised to the degree that the arts festival is, or the Christmas events. It's more their bloated nature and such things as their minions' insistence on the right to choke Edinburgh solid and fill it with filth (or rather litter and obscene posters on every single vertical surface, despite laws) and wall off public spaces for private profit that really, really get my goat. All this has helped drive the AirBNB situation even higher and cause the ongoing crisis in central Edinburgh.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    In which case you only have one home, and the question doesn't arise?

    Farron is specifically talking about people evicting longstanding tenants because of how lucrative income from tourists can be, so your example is specifically excluded.
    In Scotland the rental laws were changed a couple of years back or so to e.g. prevent landlords from evicting tenants for the summer tourist season - particularly in Edinburgh at Festival time. I wasn't paying much attention so I don't know the details, but I must admit I didn't expect what happened next: a huge ourburst of howling from the artistic/dramatic tendency who feel it is essential for them to be allowed to displace the local inhabitants every August.
    The Edinburgh Festival has become a trade show. Nothing more, nothing less.

    A drastic slashing of scope should be welcomed. It won’t be.

    A. Ballet, classical music, opera, art and dance. Yes.

    B. Books, film, military tattoo, science, jazz&blues, theatre. Probably.

    C. Television and other dross? No.

    Current distribution is about:
    A. 1%
    B. 19%
    C. 80%
    For the past few years, the fringe has been more important than the "official" festival.
    Don't worry - the Fringe will become corporatised as well. Then someone will create the Fringe of the Fringe.....
    Been there, done that, had the hangover.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    edited August 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    He is exactly right, I did not hear one moderately sensible thing in Parliamnet yesterday on what BJ could have done to prevent what happened, the idea that the UK could lead a NATO force as some sort of peacekeeper was beyond crazy.
    Crazy perhaps but not beyond crazy. Wasn't the US Army down to about 3,000 soldiers? Not many, anyway, which is why Biden needs to send more troops to evacuate Americans. NATO or Europe could have covered it. Rather it was the air support and logistics for the Afghanis that we'd have struggled with. Not to mention the huge boost to Taliban morale.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    If they’re businesses, then they should pay business rates on the premises surely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Cyclefree said:

    Worth reading - https://www.sarahchayes.org/post/the-ides-of-august - from someone who lived in Kandahar for a decade.

    "Self-Delusion.

    How many times did you read stories about the Afghan security forces’ steady progress? How often, over the past two decades, did you hear some U.S. official proclaim that the Taliban’s eye-catching attacks in urban settings were signs of their “desperation” and their “inability to control territory?” How many heart-warming accounts did you hear about all the good we were doing, especially for women and girls?

    Who were we deluding? Ourselves?

    What else are we deluding ourselves about?"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both
    He is President because he was the most likely to beat Trump. Someone like Buttiegieg would be far better, as would several others but what the US needed was anyone but Trump, and that is Biden's role. I think it will be the same dynamic in 24.
    It never gets less incredible to me that Buttegieg could run in 2056 and still be younger than Biden when he won.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    He is exactly right, I did not hear one moderately sensible thing in Parliamnet yesterday on what BJ could have done to prevent what happened, the idea that the UK could lead a NATO force as some sort of peacekeeper was beyond crazy.
    Crazy perhaps but not beyond crazy. Wasn't the US Army down to about 3,000 soldiers? Not many, anyway, which is why Biden needs to send more troops to evacuate Americans. NATO or Europe could have covered it. Rather it was the air support and logistics for the Afghanis that we'd have struggled with. Not to mention the huge boost to Taliban morale.
    John Baron's speech is the only one I've come across grounded in the real world and away from the pax Brittanica in Kabul guff I heard elsewhere.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    It is, as you say, straightforward to do.

    It will never be done, because most policymakers/politicians own two or more homes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Mr. Dickson, you're unduly harsh on Boris Johnson.

    Being caught napping is a huge improvement on the hitherto typical act he got caught committing.

    Indeed.

    Boris and “withdrawal plan” is usually associated with his private inheritance tax strategy rather than foreign affairs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both
    He is President because he was the most likely to beat Trump. Someone like Buttiegieg would be far better, as would several others but what the US needed was anyone but Trump, and that is Biden's role. I think it will be the same dynamic in 24.
    It never gets less incredible to me that Buttegieg could run in 2056 and still be younger than Biden when he won.
    I'd be worried if he wasn't as he's 6 months younger than me. Biden OTOH is 8 years older than my Dad !
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Well, Malmesbury, you are only allowed one first home by HM Revenue and taxes.

    And it is defined here:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/first-homes

    You have to declare to HM Revenue which is your first home. Capital gains is exempt on your first home only.

    So, if you have two homes, you must ALREADY have declared one to HM revenue as your first home.

    The problem of Which is your first home and which is your second? is solved already.

    Phew....
    That's a different type of first home, relevant to first-time buyers, and has nothing to do with first homes in relation to owning two homes at once.

    Shame, as I was hoping it would say something clear about two people in a relationship both having a main home, but perhaps the guidance in relation to CGT is elsewhere. It didn't seem particularly strict when it came to MPs second homes just over a decade ago.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,156
    edited August 2021
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    I tend to think that Farron is building his base. Populism.

    If he wants a recategorisation to work, he needs to explain how he will deal with, for a start

    1 - People holding one house as a "main residence" for each spouse.
    2 - People using a 'holiday rental' as a part time second house.

    Plus the Business Rates dodge.

    Does he have practical proposals beyond hand-waving and "the Council will do it"?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Phil said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    If they’re businesses, then they should pay business rates on the premises surely?
    The business rate threshold is below the rateable value of most holiday lets hence some try and exploit this when they really are just 2nd homes and should pay council tax. If you triple council tax people would let out their houses. We could easily justify it but don't.
  • MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Well, Malmesbury, you are only allowed one first home by HM Revenue and taxes.

    And it is defined here:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/first-homes

    You have to declare to HM Revenue which is your first home. Capital gains is exempt on your first home only.

    So, if you have two homes, you must ALREADY have declared one to HM revenue as your first home.

    The problem of Which is your first home and which is your second? is solved already.

    Phew....
    Unless you are an MP, when you can have a different first home for getting your mortgage paid. iirc Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick had three simultaneous first homes for different purposes. (Obviously not a resigning offence since 2019.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited August 2021

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    Is this normal, for vaccines to wear off so quickly? Or is this something specific to Covid, especially Delta Covid? - or a feature of the new vaccines themselves?

    Asking for an entire planet
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited August 2021
    SavantaComRes

    Con 41 =
    Lab 34 (+1)
    Ldm 9 (-1)
    Grn 4 =

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1428301420093218822?s=19
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited August 2021

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    There was a British VC can't remember his name who, after his warship (submarine actually) had been bombed and one of the bombs stuck between the torpedo tubes, had to crawl along the length of the tube to diffuse it when it could have detonated at any time.

    At first they wanted to give him the GC as a VC must be won in the presence of the enemy, to which he replied that he had had quite enough presence of the enemy while trying to diffuse the thing.

    Gould was his name now I remember.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_William_Gould
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    What will be interesting is if as some early data suggests Moderna is both highest protection of all current vaccines and slowest to wane, what is the secret sauce compared to other mRNA vaccine, Pfizer.

    Over at r/covid19 [*] they reckon it's basically same sauce, but Moderna gives you bigger portions.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/p6vx65/moderna_gives_bigger_antibody_boost_than_pfizer/h9g65sw/

    * Everybody please don't comment at r/covid19 unless you actually know something, the signal:noise ratio over there is one of the wonders of the modern internet
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    Mr. Dickson, you're unduly harsh on Boris Johnson.

    Being caught napping is a huge improvement on the hitherto typical act he got caught committing.

    Indeed.

    Boris and “withdrawal plan” is usually associated with his private inheritance tax strategy rather than foreign affairs.
    I thought Boris's "withdrawal plan" was his strategy to reduce the number of offspring he fathered?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,156
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    Don't hold your breath.

    The LD position on second homes is going to be about other people's second homes, just as their policy at by elections is about not building other people's new houses, spoiling the view from your new house.

    Cynic :smile:

    Nothing at all to do with Mr Farron shoring up his base.

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    At the time the hull stripped of machinery and guns was set in concrete as an amusement attraction.

    It was to do with self-image :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259
    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    Don't hold your breath.

    The LD position on second homes is going to be about other people's second homes, just as their policy at by elections is about not building other people's new houses, spoiling the view from your new house.

    Cynic :smile:

    Nothing at all to do with Mr Farron shoring up his base.

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    At the time the hull stripped of machinery and guns was set in concrete as an amusement attraction.

    It was to do with self-image :smile:
    Yes - there was an element of smashing up the railway carriage in that request....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited August 2021

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Well, Malmesbury, you are only allowed one first home by HM Revenue and taxes.

    And it is defined here:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/first-homes

    You have to declare to HM Revenue which is your first home. Capital gains is exempt on your first home only.

    So, if you have two homes, you must ALREADY have declared one to HM revenue as your first home.

    The problem of Which is your first home and which is your second? is solved already.

    Phew....
    That's a different type of first home, relevant to first-time buyers, and has nothing to do with first homes in relation to owning two homes at once.

    Shame, as I was hoping it would say something clear about two people in a relationship both having a main home, but perhaps the guidance in relation to CGT is elsewhere. It didn't seem particularly strict when it came to MPs second homes just over a decade ago.
    Very sorry, I linked to the wrong page.

    But, I am absolutely sure that you must declare to HM Revenue your first home & that is the one that is exempt from CGT.

    So, anyone with 2 or more properties already has a (legally defined) first home for tax purposes.

    It is not possible to have two first homes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited August 2021


    What will be interesting is if as some early data suggests Moderna is both highest protection of all current vaccines and slowest to wane, what is the secret sauce compared to other mRNA vaccine, Pfizer.

    Over at r/covid19 [*] they reckon it's basically same sauce, but Moderna gives you bigger portions.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/p6vx65/moderna_gives_bigger_antibody_boost_than_pfizer/h9g65sw/

    * Everybody please don't comment at r/covid19 unless you actually know something, the signal:noise ratio over there is one of the wonders of the modern internet
    That's my understanding that the effective dosage is larger, in their early trials they had some people who got even more to the extent the side effects required hospitalization.

    Moderna the Hungry Horse pub meals of vaccines....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Pulpstar said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
    The downward curve on Pfizer is really quite unsettling. It looks like it will offer zero symptomatic protection after about 9 months, or less. What will that mean for its protection against hospitalisation and death? And is this the same for all MRNA vax?

    The implication of this is that the whole of humankind is gonna have to be revaxed every 9 months, for the rest of time, unless we get BETTER vaccines. I can't see that happening, which means the entire world is going to catch Covid, multiple health services will collapse, entire nations will fall into ruin and human civilisation as we know it will come to an end

    Also, I can't decide whether to have a Greek salad now or wait til suppertime
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kjh said:



    The business rate threshold is below the rateable value of most holiday lets hence some try and exploit this when they really are just 2nd homes and should pay council tax. If you triple council tax people would let out their houses. We could easily justify it but don't.

    You simply ensure that if people let out their second home, they must successfully do so for 30 weeks or so each year to be eligible for the business rate loophole.

    At the moment, you can just say you are letting it out, with no real checks.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Point of information: in Scotland, each council has discretion to apply a discount of between 10% and 50% on second homes, or may choose to apply no discount.

    No idea how that compares with E, NI or W.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
    The downward curve on Pfizer is really quite unsettling. It looks like it will offer zero symptomatic protection after about 9 months, or less. What will that mean for its protection against hospitalisation and death? And is this the same for all MRNA vax?

    The implication of this is that the whole of humankind is gonna have to be revaxed every 9 months, for the rest of time, unless we get BETTER vaccines. I can't see that happening, which means the entire world is going to catch Covid, multiple health services will collapse, entire nations will fall into ruin and human civilisation as we know it will come to an end

    Also, I can't decide whether to have a Greek salad now or wait til suppertime
    What drivel. We will get better vaccines and we will be able to tweak vaccines and technology will advance too. Ten or twenty years ago we could not have delivered what we have as quickly as we have.

    Also Not all vaccines are MRNA
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both

    He's a terrible speaker, but getting bipartisan spending legislation through a split Senate is no mean political feat.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385


    What will be interesting is if as some early data suggests Moderna is both highest protection of all current vaccines and slowest to wane, what is the secret sauce compared to other mRNA vaccine, Pfizer.

    Over at r/covid19 [*] they reckon it's basically same sauce, but Moderna gives you bigger portions.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/p6vx65/moderna_gives_bigger_antibody_boost_than_pfizer/h9g65sw/

    * Everybody please don't comment at r/covid19 unless you actually know something, the signal:noise ratio over there is one of the wonders of the modern internet
    That's my understanding that the effective dosage is larger, in their early trials they had some people who got even more to the extent the side effects required hospitalization.

    Moderna the Hungry Horse pub meals of vaccines....
    Never dined at a Hungry Horse, now I want to.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    The real issue is that if you actually got rid of second homes, the economic side effects would be... interesting.

    What it comes down to is that people want

    - No house building
    - No new industrial sites/offices
    - Affordable houses for *themselves*
    - The locality around them frozen in time.
    - A thriving local economy with lots of nice shops, pubs etc
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Yes - the British experiments ended up with limited use of enriched air on the torpedos specially built for Nelson and Rodney.

    The Russians just wanted to totally disarm Japan.
    Insane having oxygen torpedoes. Like not bothering with self-sealing fuel tanks in their naval fighters and bombers. But they got the lethal range and speed that way.
    The amusing bit was when they got as far as full on Torpedo Cruisers (the Kuma class conversions).... even the IJN realised the potential fun in 40 Long Lances..... On the deck of your ship....

    The aircraft carriers were another one - examination of the early designs suggests that they were conceived so as to blow up like a Bond Villains lair... one sneeze....
    There was a British VC can't remember his name who, after his warship (submarine actually) had been bombed and one of the bombs stuck between the torpedo tubes, had to crawl along the length of the tube to diffuse it when it could have detonated at any time.

    At first they wanted to give him the GC as a VC must be won in the presence of the enemy, to which he replied that he had had quite enough presence of the enemy while trying to diffuse the thing.

    Gould was his name now I remember.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_William_Gould
    "Thrasher was surfaced, stationary, and close inshore to enemy waters. If the submarine was forced to crash dive while they were in the casing, they must have been drowned. It was 50[2] minutes before they got the bomb clear, wrapped it in sacking, and dropped it over the side.[3]"
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Point of information: in Scotland, each council has discretion to apply a discount of between 10% and 50% on second homes, or may choose to apply no discount.

    No idea how that compares with E, NI or W.

    In Wales, some Councils have started to apply surcharges on second homes.

    Very reluctantly. I wonder why.

    I know the Leader of my Council quite well. He owns three homes .... and the Chief Executive two.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
    The downward curve on Pfizer is really quite unsettling. It looks like it will offer zero symptomatic protection after about 9 months, or less. What will that mean for its protection against hospitalisation and death? And is this the same for all MRNA vax?

    The implication of this is that the whole of humankind is gonna have to be revaxed every 9 months, for the rest of time, unless we get BETTER vaccines. I can't see that happening, which means the entire world is going to catch Covid, multiple health services will collapse, entire nations will fall into ruin and human civilisation as we know it will come to an end

    Also, I can't decide whether to have a Greek salad now or wait til suppertime
    You may as well have the Greek salad now. The world may have ended by suppertime.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    Same people who criticise Starmer for not opposing the government enough and being anonymous get upset when he does oppose them, quelle surprise.
    Starmer said nothing that was of any practical use when the Americans had decided to withdraw air cover and manpower.

    He is like Barbie's "Hand-wringing Ken".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    The case rate map for the UK is remarkably homogenous, a sea of 200 - 399 case blue with some lighter shades in Scotland and Wales, and 400-799 purple for less vaxxed NI.

    Almost as if a greater vaccination rate produces a lower level of disease..............
  • Just watched Biden giving a press conference on covid and he just walked off the stage without a word about Afghanistan

    Furthermore in an interview he is unmoved and just gives the impression he doesn't care

    This is terrible for the US reputation and leaves the world in a very different and insecure place
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    I am suggesting the money raised by the taxes goes back into the local economy. The increase in taxes will also reduce the number of houses bought as second homes or airbnb, but likely by a smaller proportion than the increased tax revenue per home. That leaves more homes and more cash for locals.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    Er, the one you live in is your first, and the one on AirBnB is the second.
    Except that it is nearly never that simple. AirBnB for example - quite a few people live for large chunks of the year in their Cornish properties (for example). They rent them out at ludicrous rates for the summer, when pays for their summer holidays around the world.
    Well they don't need the home in London then do they in that case.
    WFH in Cornwall and a pied de terre in Lindon? For the monthly meeting?
    The recent move to WFH means that many people with "second homes" are planning on spending more time in them and less in their London properties (if they have them).
    Would recommend (a) sell the London place before the market declines too much. Fewer full time jobs in that London means lower property prices, and (b) stay in a nice hotel when in the city for the odd meeting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited August 2021

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both

    He's a terrible speaker, but getting bipartisan spending legislation through a split Senate is no mean political feat.

    He's borderline senile, physically weak, easily confused, and clearly unfit to handle the office

    To be fair to him, he is simultaneously trying to manage a global pandemic, rein in a rampant China, and deal with terrible foreign policy errors handed to him by prior administrations (esp Trump, esp Afghanistan), but his job IS to manage them, and certainly in Afghanistan he has miserably failed.

    He's not up to it. And yet he has 3 years to go. What a mess

    The deeper failure is of course the American political system which offered voters such a *suboptimal* choice of POTUS

    OK, now to do some knapping. Later
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
    The downward curve on Pfizer is really quite unsettling. It looks like it will offer zero symptomatic protection after about 9 months, or less. What will that mean for its protection against hospitalisation and death? And is this the same for all MRNA vax?

    The implication of this is that the whole of humankind is gonna have to be revaxed every 9 months, for the rest of time, unless we get BETTER vaccines. I can't see that happening, which means the entire world is going to catch Covid, multiple health services will collapse, entire nations will fall into ruin and human civilisation as we know it will come to an end

    Also, I can't decide whether to have a Greek salad now or wait til suppertime
    You may as well have the Greek salad now. The world may have ended by suppertime.
    Indeed, or the Great Plague of Athens might return at teatime.

    Frankly I'd have the salad now, and see what else that very tempting-sounding trad Greek pub/bistro has to offer this evening.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    No good for two reasons:

    1) It tries to tax influencers and wealthier people in a new way. That is no way to win elections. And inheritance tax loopholes are essential to ordinary middle class ways of life not just the Duke of Norfolk.

    2) It is easily avoidable.

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    He is exactly right, I did not hear one moderately sensible thing in Parliamnet yesterday on what BJ could have done to prevent what happened, the idea that the UK could lead a NATO force as some sort of peacekeeper was beyond crazy.
    Crazy perhaps but not beyond crazy. Wasn't the US Army down to about 3,000 soldiers? Not many, anyway, which is why Biden needs to send more troops to evacuate Americans. NATO or Europe could have covered it. Rather it was the air support and logistics for the Afghanis that we'd have struggled with. Not to mention the huge boost to Taliban morale.
    And all the potential deaths and injuries to our troops.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    It is straightforward. You just don't want to do it.

    In (coastal) Wales, there are many towns that are just almost deserted from Sep-May.

    The locals don't have a job and they can't live in the town.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    Pulpstar said:

    The case rate map for the UK is remarkably homogenous, a sea of 200 - 399 case blue with some lighter shades in Scotland and Wales, and 400-799 purple for less vaxxed NI.

    Almost as if a greater vaccination rate produces a lower level of disease..............

    Yes, with some pockets of purple in England - Brighton, very high case rates, very low (relatively) vaccination rates. Depressing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Leon said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    Is this normal, for vaccines to wear off so quickly? Or is this something specific to Covid, especially Delta Covid? - or a feature of the new vaccines themselves?

    Asking for an entire planet
    Yes, neutralising antibodies will naturally wane over time. The key point that people seem to be missing is that all of the vaccines still provide robust protection from severe symptoms and hospitalisation because if T and B cell immunity. One of the reasons I think the government will have a very wide booster programme from next month is simply to avoid any risk of repeating last year's farce over Christmas by giving everyone a decent top up of neutralising antibodies to help with short term immunity levels against infection.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2021
    1.01 shot weighs in on Afghanistan cliche Bingo

    ‘NEW: Lisa Nandy says the UK was "absolutely right" to intervene in Afghanistan in 2001 but said there are “lessons to be learned":

    https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1428282959514243073?s=21
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1428284091905056769

    Astonishing that people still support going back in

    Hardly surprising 41% of British voters support sending troops back in if it prevents future terrorist attacks on Britain on those Yougov numbers
    The 1001 post from you claiming Islamic terror is seeded and financed from Kabul rather than Riyadh.
    Did Bin Laden launch 9/11 from Saudi Arabia? No Al Qaeda's training camps were in Afghanistan and then he fled to Pakistan where special forces killed him.

    Bin Laden may have been born in Saudi but he pursued terror from Sudan, then Afghanistan then lastly Pakistan not Saudi Arabia
    The Afghan war has killed 250k people, there's been great suffering and damage over and above that, it's cost a couple of trillion dollars, and this is not to mention Iraq. For all the horror of 9/11, which is what triggered these invasions, it wasn't a rational response. If you were to draw up a pros and con balance sheet for the whole enterprise, pros = assets, cons = liabilities, it'd be going straight into receivership, no chance whatsoever of any white knight riding to the rescue. So, sure, we can debate the reasons for such a terrible mistake (eg was it doomed from the outset or was it the execution?) and also how understandable a mistake it was (9/11 WAS a horror after all), but there is surely no-one of sound mind remaining who doesn't now feel it was a terrible mistake. I know it can be hard for people to admit to agreement with figures as divisive and controversial as Jeremy Corbyn and @IanB2, but I think that's where we are with this one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,259
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the Pfizer is better than AZ crowd:

    Firstly, as many suspected, adenovirus doesn't wane as quickly as mRNA (if it does at all). They're equal after 3 months and the authors suggest AZ will likely be better after 4 months.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1428237524212674564?s=21

    In graphic form:

    There's no element of choice in the UK vax rollout as there is in the USA (Where they'll probably have a selection of boosters for all too) though !
    The downward curve on Pfizer is really quite unsettling. It looks like it will offer zero symptomatic protection after about 9 months, or less. What will that mean for its protection against hospitalisation and death? And is this the same for all MRNA vax?

    The implication of this is that the whole of humankind is gonna have to be revaxed every 9 months, for the rest of time, unless we get BETTER vaccines. I can't see that happening, which means the entire world is going to catch Covid, multiple health services will collapse, entire nations will fall into ruin and human civilisation as we know it will come to an end

    Also, I can't decide whether to have a Greek salad now or wait til suppertime
    You may as well have the Greek salad now. The world may have ended by suppertime.
    Indeed, or the Great Plague of Athens might return at teatime.

    Frankly I'd have the salad now, and see what else that very tempting-sounding trad Greek pub/bistro has to offer this evening.
    I think it is too late.. Everyone panic...

    image
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    Being a Mad Neon Fascist Imperialist Enslaver Of The Oppressed, I advocate building some more houses, given there appears to be a demand for them in Southwold.
    That is true ... but the homes would then simply be bought up by more second homers.

    @noneoftheabove is correct that this has to be dealt with through property taxes.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Andy_JS said:

    Stephen Glover:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9906501/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Point-scoring-MPs-pin-blame-Kabul-Boris-Johnson-utterly-deluded.html

    "With a few noble exceptions, the House of Commons yesterday was narrow, insular and deluded.

    Its worst tendency was to blame Boris Johnson for the debacle in Afghanistan, and the shameful spectacle of desperate Afghans trying to get onto planes at Kabul airport.

    God knows, the Prime Minister has made his fair share of mistakes, as many including me haven't been slow to point out. But the disintegration of Afghanistan can't be pinned on him.

    The heart-rending developments of the past few days had their roots in decisions either made before he entered No. 10, or else arrived at unilaterally in Washington without the Government being consulted.

    And yet to hear many MPs speak, you'd think he was the sole author of the fiasco. In a point-scoring speech, Sir Keir Starmer idiotically accused the Government of 'staggering complacency' about the 'Taliban threat', and of 'betraying the Afghan people'."

    It's amazing how many right-wing journalists seem to regard Boris as a kind of national treasure who it's quite beyond the pale to be beastly about. I don't remember such people getting so tearful about attacks on Thatcher, Major or Cameron. Is it because Boris is from their profession and they feel they need to mother him?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    kle4 said:

    kamski said:

    Die Hundepfeife


    Fortunately, so far the AfD campaign hasn't been as effective as last time, I think.

    Last time they ran a snappy though obnoxious campaign, with a whole series of eye-catching often deliberately controversial posters (and social media ads), all with the slogan "Trau dich Deutschland" which obviously resonated with a few people.

    This was the one that probably got the most attention:
    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/31/16234008/germany-afd-ad-campaign-far-right
    "Burqas? We prefer bikinis"

    This time the slogan and title of their program is "Deutschland. Aber normal." which I think is kind of weak. It's also not being consistently used, their posters around here don't seem to have it at all. Maybe it appeals more in the former East Germany? In any case I think they have a less clear message this time. It might be also fortunate that the opportunistic polluting-industry lobby group the FDP have gone with a bit of an anti-lockdown message which might help prevent a few protest votes sliding to the AfD.
    Yes, 'X but normal' doesn't sound very inspiring out of context. They didn't want to go for 'X but better' in case of Trump comparisons or something?
    I think "normal" in the first place means a return to "normality" from Coronavirus, but also something like "how things were at some unspecified time in the past looking through rose-tinted spectacles" but maybe it resonates with the homophobic vote too?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:
    Biden won the election because he wasn't a lying corrupt fool happy to bring down the republic to stay in power. That he is a doddering old fool himself was surely priced into the equation.
    Honestly Biden didn't seem that doddering in the election or primaries. A bit, sure, there were clips which stood out, but when even a BBC article referred to him as 'gaffe prone Biden' none of that looked especially worrying as part of a decline. And his defeat of other challengers showed either their weakness (other than Buttegieg, who was so unknown it was impressive to do so well) or that he had more strength than given credit.

    But given he's disliked by progressives on top of Republicans, he is more vulnerable than some if even a few more on his side start questioning his mental state.
    If he was not doddering in the primaries, why on earth were people laying double figures on him when he was leading the polls by some margin?

    He has always had moments of "dodderiness", even twenty years ago. Plenty of smart people in real life can do similar when expressing thoughts that are developing as they speak. Not everyone is a consummate politician and orator.
    Er, he's president of the USA, the world's leading power and biggest economy (at least for a few more months). He is meant to be, at the very least, quite a good politician and also a reasonable orator. He is neither.

    Of course he is still better than the maniac who preceded him but only in the way that losing one leg is better than losing both

    He's a terrible speaker, but getting bipartisan spending legislation through a split Senate is no mean political feat.

    He's borderline senile, physically weak, easily confused, and clearly unfit to handle the office

    To be fair to him, he is simultaneously trying to manage a global pandemic, rein in a rampant China, and deal with terrible foreign policy errors handed to him by prior administrations (esp Trump, esp Afghanistan), but his job IS to manage them, and certainly in Afghanistan he has miserably failed.

    He's not up to it. And yet he has 3 years to go. What a mess

    The deeper failure is of course the American political system which offered voters such a *suboptimal* choice of POTUS

    OK, now to do some knapping. Later
    There've been no reports of his seniity on Capitol Hill, among the congressmen he's negotiated with. I think he's always been a halting speaker, and may have some very early stages of degeneration, but so far real impairment has only been a Republican talking-point, rather than reported by any of the Republicans he's worked with on the ground.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Which is the problem here - my viewpoint is that peppery of type x should all be taxed the same way.

    There is then a secondary question of whether property that isn’t occupied all the year should be charged at a higher rate but that is a secondary issue (2-3 times to discourage other uses would solve problems in holiday locations).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron starts a campaign to stop family homes being turned into second homes

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1428286010392252419?s=20

    I happen to agree with Tim about second homes in Cumbria and elsewhere -- but, I wonder, how many LibDems have at least two homes?

    Certainly, the leader of the Welsh Lib Dems does.

    As does every second Lib Dem on pb,com :)
    He has a petition on it, which says:

    The Liberal Democrats will use your contact details to send you information on the topics you have requested. Any data we gather will be used in accordance with our privacy policy at www.libdems.org.uk/privacy To exercise your legal data rights, email: data.protection@libdems.org.uk.

    We will include your name and address when submitting the petition to the Government

    That would be better off on the Parliamentary Petition website.
    How do you stop second homes? Which is your first home and which is your second?

    Hilariously, many of the proposals for this would stop... immigration... to the "protected" areas.
    I'm a LD and I have a 2nd home, although in my defence it is really for my wife to escape from me and see her family who live there also. I would not have bought it. We do not rent it out, although we considered that, but we do let friends and family use it for free.

    If we did rent it out we could make it a business, not pay council tax but business rates, but the business rates on that level of business is zero. Many try and exploit this, we didn't.

    Houses prices in Southwold are huge because of the 2nd home owners, but also they are in effect almost the entire economy of the town.

    None of this is an easy problem to resolve.
    Is it really that difficult?

    Council tax on second homes at 3x, Third homes at 5x
    Tax AirBnB type revenue at additional 25% with tax going to local council
    Stop subsidising property prices through QE, stamp duty holidays and housing benefit
    Stop inheritance tax loop holes

    Turn them into businesses and council tax disappears. Remove them as 2nd homes and local businesses which in some places is completely dependent upon them go bust. It is the dilemma of Southwold - locals priced out of the market but dependent on the people that live in the houses.

    Re your other points I either agree or don't know enough to agree or disagree, but on the face of it seem reasonable.
    Again, that is easily solved. Either make it harder for holiday lets to qualify as businesses, or remove the small business rates relief schemes for holiday lets so that they pay business rates instead.

    Just realised that furnished holiday let income actually has several other tax advantages that can be easily taken away, such as capital allowances for property furniture, and that, unlike BTL, they are treated as "relevant earnings" so you can make pension contributions to minimise taxes. Oh, and whilst we are it, lets add NI to earnings from holiday lets.

    There is loads we could do, if we had the will. The reality is the govt, and much of the middle class, likes the asset rich getting richer for doing very little, whilst pretending there is not much that can be done about it.
    Just pointing out it is not as straight forward as people make out. I actually agree in principle but it isn't a slam dunk. You didn't respond to the issue on the local economy. The vast majority of Southwold is 2nd home owners. I'm sure there are other places like this. This has a devastating impact on house prices for locals but also provides just about the entire local economy. Which do the locals want, a job or having to live outside the town that is now occupied by outsiders. Not straight forward.
    I am suggesting the money raised by the taxes goes back into the local economy. The increase in taxes will also reduce the number of houses bought as second homes or airbnb, but likely by a smaller proportion than the increased tax revenue per home. That leaves more homes and more cash for locals.
    Just about the entire economy is based around the 2nd homes. 49% of the homes in Southwold/Reydon are 2nd homes (see Wikipedia) and they are all in Southwold. The locals live in Reydon. There might be houses but there won't be any cash without the 2nd home owners. I think most locals prefer a job and live just outside in Reydon rather than live 1/2 mile down the road and not have a job.

    This stuff is not simple.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Did we not once have a close relationship with Japan...... ancient, long lasting monarchies with significant hang-overs from feudalism and all that......, before first the USA rather spoiled it and then the militarists took control in the twenties.

    The ending of the alliance with Japan was because such alliances were held to be one of the reasons that WWI happened - arguable, but the belief at the time.

    The idea was to construct a New World order of a balance of power in naval terms. Without alliances, the US, UK, France, Italy and Japan couldn't defeat each other in the event of naval conflict, if they all held to the Washington Treaty.

    As Yamamoto observed, the Washington Treaty gave Japan near absolute protection - it restrained the US from building a fleet that could crush Japan like a nut.

    The belief that it was an Evul Wacist Treaty was the pitch of the Japanese Black Dragon types. This leaves out the fact that it

    a) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than either France or Italy
    b) Gave Japan a bigger Navy than Japan could afford
    c) Limited everyone else to having a smaller presence in the Pacific than Japan.
    Not to mention that the biggest opponent of spending more money on the Japanese Navy was the Japanese Army.
    I understand Japan choosing to ally with the UK in late Victorian as being because RN was hegemonic at that point, and UK had the best technology / strongest industry.

    Yup - the UK was the World Naval Power (singular). Everyone wanted a Navy Like That One.

    The Japanese Navy was a bit of a stronghold of relative sanity - the Army was a bit special... I mean, these were people who seriously considered conquering Korea and all the nice bits of China *and* taking on America and the UK (plus others) was a plan...
    It's fascinating how Togo at Tsushima hoisted a signal to emulate Nelson, the IJN was an ally with the UK in WW1 and its first dreadnought(s?) was UK-built. The Master of Sempill was tasked with providing assistance to the IJN to build up its air arm in the 1920s - just a shame he got a bit enthusiastic over how much info, and how long he carried on doing it ... wasn't keeping up with current affairs was he?

    And of course the IJN sat up and took a great interest when the RN torpedoed the Italians in harbour at Taranto. The rest is history.
    I thought the inspiration for Japanese oxygen powered torpedoes came from their study of UK experiments with partially oxygen powered torpedos.

    I have in my head that the Japanese Officer who ran the programme for the Japan Navy torpedoes had been on secondment in the UK as part of one of the aforementioned cooperation in the 20s (?).

    I like the irony that the only British built (Barrow) battleship preserved anywhere is the Mikasa, the Japanese flagship at Tsushima, which is preserved at Yokosuka. The Russians tried to get it broken up after WW2 for some reason.
    https://www.themilitarytimes.co.uk/history/the-one-remaining-british-built-battleship-left/
    Interesting. I'm planning to visit Jason next year... will add to the possibles list.
    Also took me down a Wikipedia maze, which led to possibly the most bonkers weapon system of WWII...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aichi_M6A
    (Though there's plenty of competition for that title.)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    isam said:

    1.01 shot weighs in on Afghanistan cliche Bingo

    ‘NEW: Lisa Nandy says the UK was "absolutely right" to intervene in Afghanistan in 2001 but said there are “lessons to be learned":

    https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1428282959514243073?s=21

    I am with the Taliban on this.

    Beheadings with a rusty knife for anyone using the phrase "lessons to be learned".
This discussion has been closed.