Starmer landing some blows & given a dignified and measured speech. But to say 'settlement programme needs to meet the scale of the challenge' but not set out the actual scale of the challenge, or suggest total numbers of refugees the UK should take or the time frame is hazy.
It's getting personal. Starmer: "He failed to visit Afghanistan as PM, which means his last trip to the country, as Foreign Sec, was not to learn or to push UK interests but to avoid a vote on Heathrow. 100,000s of Britons have flown to serve,the PM flew to avoid public service." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1427926249742258176
Starmer needs to be careful he does not ruin his speech by exaggeration and petty points
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Sorry to hear & Good to hear Is it worse than a normal cold or flu (for you) ?
Hope your wife is feeling OK !
Thank you.
My wife has a very chesty cough and a steaming nose and feels very tired and drained. It is like a bad cold for her.
For me I feel fine apart from a metallic taste in my mouth. The previius couple of days I felt like I’d been kicked black and blue. But today I don’t feel too bad.
Good to hear. An update - my mum spent about 5 days in hospital with a blood clot, she's out now and on thinners. It wasn't Covid, and the length of time from her jabs means I think it won't have been the vaccine either. It was (imo) likely the ciggies which she has now quit after 50 odd years, hopefully for good >< !
My Dad quit after about 45 years, he’s still here 25 years later.
Starmer has the tone right here have to say, sombre and serious. The Commons was too jovial before.
Now he is reading the list of MPs who served in Afghanistan
Shades of the Norway debate, and others in both wars, when many MPs were serving.
The debate over the fall of Norway is absolutely the last historical analogy which Boris Johnson would want, given his utter eagerness to follow his hero Winston Churchill.
History did Johnson the favour of delivering him a global crisis such that he had opportunity to emulate his hero, with the catch that it didn't gift him any of the skills or character to be able to do so.
Not history: Nemesis. It's a sort of inverse curse of Cassandra.
Outside of the Commons who I'd be particularly interested in hearing from about Afghanistan is Tony Blair.
"The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us spend twenty years thinking we can reorder this world."
I vividly remember Blair theatrically rushing up the steps of Concorde at the time of this speech, on a whistle-stop global tour to drum up support for the Americans intervening, around October 2001. Britain's reward at the end of twenty years was to be completely ignored during the pullout, which is a vivid preview for how our future economic and military relationship with the US, deprived of a seat at the european table, will pan out too.
What is the European table really worth in defence and foreign policy terms? In reality any European table that excludes the UK isn't a European table.
The UK will only have any independent military weight as part of a European military structure, where it's strongly needed ; next to the US it's an irrelevance, as we can see. The current government has done nothing to build on that.
You mean independent of the US rather than independent?
I predicted some time ago that Boris would struggle more when the HoC was packed, post-Covid, because the disquiet on the Tory backbenches would be more evident. Watching today's debate, I may be right. Today is the first day that Starmer has been able to 'perform' with the backbenches full, and it seems to be going well. Not so for Johnson (and Raab), maybe.
Now Mrs May. Kicks off my pointing out she visited Afghanistan twice as often as Johnson (leaving the listener to do the maths)
She's clearly stepping into the role of unofficial leader for the critics - and is better placed to champion the consequences for women than the mostly military guys on the backbenches
And is aggressively attacked in an intervention from Redwood...
Mrs M reminds the House it just cut the aid budget....
They need to get everyone vaccinated, starting with the most vulnerable, and keep the oldies staying at home until it’s done.
I think the sweet spot is reopening 2 weeks after over 50s + vulnerable are double done. You continue to go through the rest of the less vulnerable population, but it's not worth keeping everything shut... one slight change I'd make is to add pregnant women into the jabbed whilst locked down group.
It's all over. Even NZ had 10 new cases today. Delta makes zero COVID completely impossible. Even with quarantine on the border. Tbh, we're lucky in a sense that the most dominant variant has got little to no dilution of vaccine effectiveness for hospitalisations and deaths. If a variant which was as transmissive as Delta but had significant vaccine dilution came along the world would have been buggered.
It's maybe worth taking a longer view. Even after all these years Blair is routinely dismissed, despite all his merits, on the basis of going into Iraq, with losses to our troops in a cause judged worthless by voters in the long run.
Most voters biggest concern over the military will be (1) Have we alliances and our own defences in place to protect ourselves from invasion. This has not been seriously tested for 70 years+, perhaps because no-one plans to try it out just in case we have
and
(2) Are our forces getting killed in a worthless cause.
Boris's record as PM is OK so far in these respects.
By far the bigger electoral danger is the possibility of refugees/migration into the UK at a scale voters won't care for.
There are few long term votes in the issue of how good Afghans are at nation building.
Outside of the Commons who I'd be particularly interested in hearing from about Afghanistan is Tony Blair.
"The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us spend twenty years thinking we can reorder this world."
I vividly remember Blair theatrically rushing up the steps of Concorde at the time of this speech, on a whistle-stop global tour to drum up support for the Americans intervening, around October 2001. Britain's reward at the end of twenty years was to be completely ignored during the pullout, which is a vivid preview for how our future economic and military relationship with the US, deprived of a seat at the european table, will pan out too.
What is the European table really worth in defence and foreign policy terms? In reality any European table that excludes the UK isn't a European table.
The UK will only have any independent military weight as part of a European military structure, where it's strongly needed ; next to the US it's an irrelevance, as we can see. The current government has done nothing to build on that.
You mean independent of the US rather than independent?
More in terms of a simple calculus of power. Britain is simply far too much smaller in size than the US to have any meaningful military relationship with it other than that of a client, whereas the local European arena gives it prestige.
It's getting personal. Starmer: "He failed to visit Afghanistan as PM, which means his last trip to the country, as Foreign Sec, was not to learn or to push UK interests but to avoid a vote on Heathrow. 100,000s of Britons have flown to serve,the PM flew to avoid public service." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1427926249742258176
Starmer needs to be careful he does not ruin his speech by exaggeration and petty points
Cameron seems to have gone annually, 2010-14. May went as home secretary in 2013, apparently not as PM. Trump 2019. Biden as VP 2011.
Edit: May seems to claim more visits, but they don't immediately show up on google. She visited troops in Iraq in 2017...
I predicted some time ago that Boris would struggle more when the HoC was packed, post-Covid, because the disquiet on the Tory backbenches would be more evident. Watching today's debate, I may be right. Today is the first day that Starmer has been able to 'perform' with the backbenches full, and it seems to be going well. Not so for Johnson (and Raab), maybe.
This is something of a perfect storm for BoJo, though. It's a failure, when BoJo does good times and bombast. It's serious, when BoJo does levity. It's about the military, which a lot of his erstwhile supporters take very seriously indeed.
Watching @bigjohnowls bezzie Starmer doing his speech in the debate (on catch-up) and wondering just how excretable a Corbyn speech now would have been. Perhaps calling for reparations payable to the Taliban?
Yes, surely Labour today would be much better led by the faction who want to pay money to the Taliban.
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
And this from former PM May to her successor PM Johnson a precise and targeted blow
"This is a major setback for British foreign policy. We talk of Global Britain. Where is Global Britain on the streets of Kabul? We will be judged on our deeds not our words."
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
Dealing with Covid?
Well, they haven't been very successful at that, either. Anyway, I tend to think that all governments need to be able to deal with more than one thing at a time, however grave particular issues are, don't you?
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
Dealing with Covid?
If Johnson can only cope with one difficult problem at a time, maybe running the country isn't the job for him.
No invasion., Bin Laden would still be alive in the Afghan mountains plotting more 9/11s
You don't know that.
There were a range of options for dealing with OBL between doing nothing and occupying Afghanistan for 20 years.
As Bush's former speechwriter makes clear. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/bin-laden-2001-end-war-afghanistan/619767/ Had the United States caught and killed Osama bin Laden in December 2001, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan would have faded away almost immediately afterward. I cannot prove that. It’s only an opinion from my vantage point as one of President George W. Bush’s speechwriters in 2001 and 2002.
Yet I strongly believe it. The U.S. stayed for 20 years in Afghanistan because first Bush and then his successors got trapped in a pattern of responding to past failures by redoubling future efforts. In the fall of 2001, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan was clear, limited, and achievable: find and kill bin Laden....
Watching @bigjohnowls bezzie Starmer doing his speech in the debate (on catch-up) and wondering just how excretable a Corbyn speech now would have been. Perhaps calling for reparations payable to the Taliban?
Yes, surely Labour today would be much better led by the faction who want to pay money to the Taliban.
I believe Richard Burgon said something along those lines yesterday.
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
Dealing with Covid?
Well, they haven't been very successful at that, either. Anyway, I tend to think that all governments need to be able to deal with more than one thing at a time, however grave particular issues are, don't you?
Of Course, but to say that the last 18 months have been normal is nonsense. I would have thought that 99% of the Governments time has been dealing with Covid and all its implications both social and economic.
If the PM was flying off to Afghanistan he would have been massively criticised for not dealing with the biggest crisis to hit the UK since 1945.
Kabul airport watch: Turkish A400M out of Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad, just landed in Kabul - with transponder on!
BTW, there is no plan or significance to all this IFF mode business. All of this will be being done in something approaching a blind panic with consequent randomness.
Quite an appalling, halting, meandering, unconvincing, staccato performance by PM Johnson opening Commons debate. Nobody could accuse him of rising to the occasion.
Maybe it’s the shock of so many MPs in back in the chamber, but the Commons is particularly febrile. Tory benches in particular are giving Boris Johnson a very hard time, PM struggling to keep his head above water. https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1427918267243540482?s=20
The ‘BJ thrives on the big stage of a full HoC’ theory seems to have long Covid, or was a load of crap in the first place.
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
Have just got past Starmer attacking Raab and Johnson being on holiday. On Raaaaaaaab "He's shouting now, but he stayed on holiday whilst our mission disintegrated. You cann't co-ordinate an international response from the beach"
I predicted some time ago that Boris would struggle more when the HoC was packed, post-Covid, because the disquiet on the Tory backbenches would be more evident. Watching today's debate, I may be right. Today is the first day that Starmer has been able to 'perform' with the backbenches full, and it seems to be going well. Not so for Johnson (and Raab), maybe.
I feared the opposite. I thought the clown would relish the full circus tent. Glad to have been wrong about this.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
Just had my second Pfizer 4 minutes ago, so agreed!
Remember it doesn't become effective for at least a week.
So wear a proper mask if you have one - you don't want to be a 'casualty at the end of a battle' if you can help it.
Quite an appalling, halting, meandering, unconvincing, staccato performance by PM Johnson opening Commons debate. Nobody could accuse him of rising to the occasion.
Maybe it’s the shock of so many MPs in back in the chamber, but the Commons is particularly febrile. Tory benches in particular are giving Boris Johnson a very hard time, PM struggling to keep his head above water. https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1427918267243540482?s=20
The ‘BJ thrives on the big stage of a full HoC’ theory seems to have long Covid, or was a load of crap in the first place.
It may work to an extent in the knockabout theatre of PMQs, but when the matter is serious or requires gravitas his failure to rise to the occasion is so clear very few of his backbenchers attempt to rally to the flag.
I'm not opposed to the government suspending the manifesto triple lock promise due to the exceptional circumstances brought about by Covid.
But I suspect Tories tend to pick and choose which manifesto promises are breakable. For example, would Tories support it if the Chancellor said: "Due to the exceptional circumstances brought about by Covid, I'm sorry to announce that our manifesto pledge not to raise income tax will have to be suspended. We will be raising income tax rates for those who can most afford to pay more"?
Unquestionably they and any government party are utterly inconsistent about which parts are inviolable. It depends what they think they can get away with - I think Nay tried one, then reverse ferreted after a budget citing the manifesto as if she had been unaware it was there until the chancellor revealed it.
Quite an appalling, halting, meandering, unconvincing, staccato performance by PM Johnson opening Commons debate. Nobody could accuse him of rising to the occasion.
Maybe it’s the shock of so many MPs in back in the chamber, but the Commons is particularly febrile. Tory benches in particular are giving Boris Johnson a very hard time, PM struggling to keep his head above water. https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1427918267243540482?s=20
The ‘BJ thrives on the big stage of a full HoC’ theory seems to have long Covid, or was a load of crap in the first place.
It may work to an extent in the knockabout theatre of PMQs, but when the matter is serious or requires gravitas his failure to rise to the occasion is so clear very few of his backbenchers attempt to rally to the flag.
Poor Boris this was not the premiership he had in his mind's eye.
The pandemic is on its way out, but SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay. Fortunately, as everyone develops immunity to it (whether through vaccination or natural infection), it will soon no longer be a major problem anymore. The virus will continue to circulate, but much less than during the pandemic and, even when people are infected, the infection will typically be mild. In the future, almost everyone will get infected for the first time during their childhood, which is harmless and will protect them against severe illness when they are reinfected.15 The virus will continue to mutate and some of those mutations will favor immune evasion, but while this will allow it to infect people who have already been infected or vaccinated more easily, immunity should continue to protect against severe forms of the disease, thanks in particular to the role played by T-cells. This is likely what happened with other human coronaviruses, which are already endemic and typically cause a cold in the people they infect. To the extent that immune evasion occurs, it will be very gradual and the fact that most people will be infected every few years will update their immunity, ensuring that subsequent reinfections will also be mild. The most vulnerable people, whose immune system doesn’t work very well and could use some help to be ready in case of infection, can get a vaccine booster from time to time. The virus will still kill people, as the flu does, but it will never cause the same amount of disruption again. The hardest part of what lays ahead may be to convince people who have been traumatized by the pandemic that it’s over and that restrictions are no longer necessary.
Mrs May is regularly better at putting Johnson on the spot than any of the Opposition.
"When did you first speak to Nato Sec Gen about assembling a coalition of the willing?"
"I spoke to him just the other day..."
That is the problem with parliamentary debates; it is so easy to avoid the question (or be an idiot by not understanding it) and there is no opportunity to follow up. It is a shame that the speaker can not intervene and insist that the actual question is answered.
There is also the issue of often having to ask 20 questions in one ask for which there is no way a minister can answer properly. There should be the opportunity to ask individual or closely related questions and then ask the next after that answer.
The chamber is useless for debate.
Parliament is bad for it. Debate and scrutiny skills are not encouraged or rewarded, so there's little incentive to try to make it work.
Starmer tells MPs the admission from the Defence Sec that not everyone will be able to get back is "unconscionable" and tells govt to "snap out of complacency". Labour leader being heard. His criticisms of the UK govt felt keenly on the govt benches as well as the opposition ones
Comedian Sean Lock has died of cancer at the age of 58, his agent said today
That’s really sad to hear, 58 is nothing, and with a young family too. A brilliant stand-up comic, and well known in recent years for some very rude off-the-cuff panel show jokes. RIP.
Jezbollah gathers outside the Commons to demand reparations to be paid to the Taliban. What an utter wazzock, as was I for once voting for it. Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa.
I predicted some time ago that Boris would struggle more when the HoC was packed, post-Covid, because the disquiet on the Tory backbenches would be more evident. Watching today's debate, I may be right. Today is the first day that Starmer has been able to 'perform' with the backbenches full, and it seems to be going well. Not so for Johnson (and Raab), maybe.
Governments and PMs will have bad days and indeed weeks, without signifying a sea change. Sometimes all they can do is take it.
These are moments when we can see how his mettle holds up though, which is relevant should more bad days take place, as the impact adds up.
Quite an appalling, halting, meandering, unconvincing, staccato performance by PM Johnson opening Commons debate. Nobody could accuse him of rising to the occasion.
Maybe it’s the shock of so many MPs in back in the chamber, but the Commons is particularly febrile. Tory benches in particular are giving Boris Johnson a very hard time, PM struggling to keep his head above water. https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1427918267243540482?s=20
The ‘BJ thrives on the big stage of a full HoC’ theory seems to have long Covid, or was a load of crap in the first place.
The problem for governing politicians right now is that the voters want to know what they're doing about getting refugees out, but the voters will only want refugees for another 2 weeks or so, 3 max, after which the papers will find a rape case involving somebody with an uncle from Jalalabad and they'll go back to their normal mode of wanting the refugees kept out again.
Starmer tells MPs the admission from the Defence Sec that not everyone will be able to get back is "unconscionable" and tells govt to "snap out of complacency". Labour leader being heard. His criticisms of the UK govt felt keenly on the govt benches as well as the opposition ones
Jezbollah gathers outside the Commons to demand reparations to be paid to the Taliban. What an utter wazzock, as was I for once voting for it. Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa.
Back where he should never have been taken away from: irrelevantly protesting with a half dozen other scruffy Stalinists very well away from any authority or power.
Corbyn marching against "the war" when the war in Afghanistan is over, the war in Iraq is over and the war in Syria whilst still ongoing at a lower level than previously has no British involvement. I think there's a few other wars in Africa ongoing too but we're not involved militarily in those either.
Tugendhat was superb. Put money on him to have a serious impact in the party going forward
Genuinely important stuff in parliament at the moment. Feels like a shift in Johnson’s leadership in terms of overall tone and patience running out, and a genuine acknowledgment we cannot rely on America anymore
I’ve not seen a house so directly critical to a US president (Trump excluded). I even agreed with Blackwood
I think what may stick is Starmer's comment that the government (and its allies) has had 18 months since the Doha agreement was signed by Trump to prepare for what would flow from that agreement. His comment that "the lack of planning has been unforgivable" seems accurate. What on earth have the USA and UK been doing for the last 18 months, other than waiting for the Taliban to take over?
Dealing with Covid?
If Johnson can only cope with one difficult problem at a time, maybe running the country isn't the job for him.
Indeed - its not supposed to be an easy gig. Exceptional people are expected (albeit rarely put in place by us)
Starmer tells MPs the admission from the Defence Sec that not everyone will be able to get back is "unconscionable" and tells govt to "snap out of complacency". Labour leader being heard. His criticisms of the UK govt felt keenly on the govt benches as well as the opposition ones
The admission was politically brave and correct. Starmer is within rights to attack over it, but Wallace deserves praise for being frank.
I don't its so much an attack on Wallace for making it but for the policy which means he has to.
I didn't mean Starmer should praise Wallace for candour, but us. Starmer going after the gov for the comment and the situation is fair game and his job.
Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood MP (Bournemouth East, Conservative) Regrets there will not be a vote in the House today because he believes the government would not have the support of the house.
Tugendhat was superb. Put money on him to have a serious impact in the party going forward
Genuinely important stuff in parliament at the moment. Feels like a shift in Johnson’s leadership in terms of overall tone and patience running out, and a genuine acknowledgment we cannot rely on America anymore
I’ve not seen a house so directly critical to a US president (Trump excluded). I even agreed with Blackwood
Tugendhat strikes me very much as the pre-Borisite Tory party, and pre-Brexiters. He has something in common with figures such as Grieve, Clarke and Heseltine.
Quite an appalling, halting, meandering, unconvincing, staccato performance by PM Johnson opening Commons debate. Nobody could accuse him of rising to the occasion.
Maybe it’s the shock of so many MPs in back in the chamber, but the Commons is particularly febrile. Tory benches in particular are giving Boris Johnson a very hard time, PM struggling to keep his head above water. https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1427918267243540482?s=20
The ‘BJ thrives on the big stage of a full HoC’ theory seems to have long Covid, or was a load of crap in the first place.
The problem for governing politicians right now is that the voters want to know what they're doing about getting refugees out, but the voters will only want refugees for another 2 weeks or so, 3 max, after which the papers will find a rape case involving somebody with an uncle from Jalalabad and they'll go back to their normal mode of wanting the refugees kept out again.
Tugendhat was superb. Put money on him to have a serious impact in the party going forward
Genuinely important stuff in parliament at the moment. Feels like a shift in Johnson’s leadership in terms of overall tone and patience running out, and a genuine acknowledgment we cannot rely on America anymore
I’ve not seen a house so directly critical to a US president (Trump excluded). I even agreed with Blackwood
Your post is nonsensical.
Cannot rely on America.
What does that mean? What is the UK's independent policy on Afghan?
So many more people think it was wrong to go there in the first place (than think the opposite) yet the same is true (by a bigger margin) when people are asked whether UK troops will have to go back there?
Right.
That’s not illogical. If Afghanistan were to become a base for anti-Western terrorism, then our troops would have to return.
You mean American troops would have to return, subject to the whims of the President. Last week established that after a decade of Tory defence cuts, Britain cannot go it alone against the Taliban.
I doubt if there's any point since 1947 when we could have run a substantial military campaign in Afghanistan on our own.
Historically, the UK running lengthy campaigns in Afghanistan has *never* proved to be a good idea.
A junior officer wrote a book about it, in the early 20th cent. Went on to become a journalist and then an MP. IIRC he managed a certain amount of success in politics.
Re current covid infections.
Is there a pattern that the highest places are those which have had lowest overall infection during the pandemic - Scotland, Northern Ireland, Cornwall as example - ie an element of 'gap filling' because of the greater transmission of Delta and the end of restrictions ?
A plausible theory a couple of months ago given the antibody survey results (Scotland North of England with lower prevelance than the rest of England) but not so now.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
Comments
The full chamber was supposed to *help* Johnson.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1427926408848883715
https://twitter.com/Kate_M_Proctor/status/1427925889434669058?s=20
Cat out of bag, genie out of bottle…
They need to get everyone vaccinated, starting with the most vulnerable, and keep the oldies staying at home until it’s done.
My Dad quit after about 45 years, he’s still here 25 years later.
She's clearly stepping into the role of unofficial leader for the critics - and is better placed to champion the consequences for women than the mostly military guys on the backbenches
And is aggressively attacked in an intervention from Redwood...
Mrs M reminds the House it just cut the aid budget....
Most voters biggest concern over the military will be (1) Have we alliances and our own defences in place to protect ourselves from invasion. This has not been seriously tested for 70 years+, perhaps because no-one plans to try it out just in case we have
and
(2) Are our forces getting killed in a worthless cause.
Boris's record as PM is OK so far in these respects.
By far the bigger electoral danger is the possibility of refugees/migration into the UK at a scale voters won't care for.
There are few long term votes in the issue of how good Afghans are at nation building.
Edit: May seems to claim more visits, but they don't immediately show up on google. She visited troops in Iraq in 2017...
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1427928425759711234?s=20
Yes, surely Labour today would be much better led by the faction who want to pay money to the Taliban.
Turkish A400M out of Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad, just landed in Kabul - with transponder on!
Edit: and is back in the air only a few minutes later. With light winds, they can land one way, turn around and take off the other way.
"This is a major setback for British foreign policy. We talk of Global Britain. Where is Global Britain on the streets of Kabul? We will be judged on our deeds not our words."
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1427931992339980290?s=20
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1427935019234996228?s=20
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/bin-laden-2001-end-war-afghanistan/619767/
Had the United States caught and killed Osama bin Laden in December 2001, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan would have faded away almost immediately afterward. I cannot prove that. It’s only an opinion from my vantage point as one of President George W. Bush’s speechwriters in 2001 and 2002.
Yet I strongly believe it. The U.S. stayed for 20 years in Afghanistan because first Bush and then his successors got trapped in a pattern of responding to past failures by redoubling future efforts. In the fall of 2001, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan was clear, limited, and achievable: find and kill bin Laden....
If the PM was flying off to Afghanistan he would have been massively criticised for not dealing with the biggest crisis to hit the UK since 1945.
Raab sat with his gob on the floor...
Ian Blackford: 27 minutes
You a linguist.
There _was_ a range of options. Jeez.
And yes wrt OBL.
ISI were then and are now running things in the area and had and have plenty of options.
And don't come at me with some fancy grammatical rule about my substantive point.
But wasn't he one of that coterie of participants of very cosy "panel game" comedies that were only funny if you were actually on the panel.
https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1427924432744558602?s=21
Jezbollah gathers outside the Commons to demand reparations to be paid to the Taliban. What an utter wazzock, as was I for once voting for it. Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/18/pakistan-hand-taliban-victory/
Some good books about it also if you're interested.
These are moments when we can see how his mettle holds up though, which is relevant should more bad days take place, as the impact adds up.
I think there's a few other wars in Africa ongoing too but we're not involved militarily in those either.
Genuinely important stuff in parliament at the moment. Feels like a shift in Johnson’s leadership in terms of overall tone and patience running out, and a genuine acknowledgment we cannot rely on America anymore
I’ve not seen a house so directly critical to a US president (Trump excluded). I even agreed with Blackwood
Cannot rely on America.
What does that mean? What is the UK's independent policy on Afghan?