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Polling update for first half of August – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited August 2021 in General
imagePolling update for first half of August – politicalbetting.com

It is August and we are not getting very many surveys at the moment and indeed there is not that much domestic UK political news.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,988
    Primus inter pares.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    England.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,195
    Second like the coming of the Taliban.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited August 2021
    Second.
    The Tory share is pretty consistent. And down off its highs. Still an election winning figure though. The Labour score isn't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    It is August and covid does not seem to be too much of an issue, but of course we now have Afghanistan so plenty to think about on how it affects the coming polling

    Also phone lines will be extinct in a couple of years so that polling will by necessity end
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2021
    Fourth second

    Sorry, fifth
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    It is August and covid does not seem to be too much of an issue, but of course we now have Afghanistan so plenty to think about on how it affects the coming polling

    Also phone lines will be extinct in a couple of years so that polling will by necessity end

    Even if they weren't, who answers landline calls these days? It's always the microsoft help department or that bloke from Nigeria.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,816
    Eight.

    Like the number of Afghan army soldiers who actually fought the Taliban.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,259
    Two camps of voters.

    1. Tories
    2. Lefty-fluid

    It is less about who the not Tories vote for in terms of numbers, more about where they are voting.

    If all of these LibDem votes are in the right places the Tories will suffer.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited August 2021
    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,995
    The LD and Green shares are highest and the Labour share lowest on the only phone poll.

    Not sure what, if anything, we can derive from that?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    covid does not seem to be too much of an issue,

    Well I don't wish to sound like a broken record but it's not looking good at all at the moment.

    I shan't bore people with the details. Cases, deaths, hospitalisations going the wrong way. But the worst data of the lot is what is coming out of Israel.

    Trouble ahoy I'm afraid.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    another_richard said:

    Eight.

    Like the number of Afghan army soldiers who actually fought the Taliban.

    What would be the point? Without American-UK backing you'd face certain defeat and then a slow lingering tortured death at the hands of the Taliban. Sometimes it's better to run away and hope they don't subsequently lynch you.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,062
    SandyRentool said:

    Two camps of voters.

    1. Tories
    2. Lefty-fluid

    It is less about who the not Tories vote for in terms of numbers, more about where they are voting.

    If all of these LibDem votes are in the right places the Tories will suffer.

    But we know they won’t all split for labour. A sizeable minority of Lib Dem votes would go Tory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    And entirely presaged by Russia's humiliation in 1989, and Britain's in 1842 and 1919.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    Some of the tweets from British soldiers who lost both legs, etc, in Afghanistan, are almost unbearable

    WTF was it all for???

    The West could have kept a small garrison in Afghan in perpetuity for a billion a year. Not ideal. But it would have prevented this terrible shame and disgrace, and rape and bloodshed, which benefits absolutely no one (not even China) apart from radical Islam. It is a calamity
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    Uk polling fairly unexciting for now, but things are moving in Poland:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1427299296295145476/photo/1

    The populist right seems to be fading fast, though one of those strange parties formed around one person of hard-to-classify views is up toi 18%.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,816
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,816
    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    England might if they had better leadership.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Heathener said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    covid does not seem to be too much of an issue,

    Well I don't wish to sound like a broken record but it's not looking good at all at the moment.

    I shan't bore people with the details. Cases, deaths, hospitalisations going the wrong way. But the worst data of the lot is what is coming out of Israel.

    Trouble ahoy I'm afraid.
    England’s rates looked pretty static, whilst Scotland and Wales seem to be seeing a rise as a result of their opening up.

    I’m not really sure what your seeing that’s making you so fearful.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    edited August 2021
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I suspect most "loyal Boris supporters" will not in fact give a damn about events in Afghanistan, unless we accept large numbers of Afghani refugees; it's a country far away from here that few would be able to locate on a map.

    But I agree it's a disgraceful episode of western foreign policy. What made the west think that it could transpose its norms and values into Afghani culture through a combination of military force and bribery, and get buy-in from the locals, including the Afghani army?

    Mercifully, and at least in the short-term, the Taliban 'revolution' seems to have been relatively peaceful. We haven't read of large numbers of casualties, apart from the disorder at the airport. This does seem to indicate that Taliban rule is not unpopular with a lot of Afghanis, perhaps even a majority. There's not a lot we can do about that, however much we don't approve.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    Taz said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Two camps of voters.

    1. Tories
    2. Lefty-fluid

    It is less about who the not Tories vote for in terms of numbers, more about where they are voting.

    If all of these LibDem votes are in the right places the Tories will suffer.

    But we know they won’t all split for labour. A sizeable minority of Lib Dem votes would go Tory.
    I don't think that was the point. If the c10% is mainly in seats like C+A where Labour is nowhere, rather than a general across the board uptick, that could hurt the Tories. I also expect around half the 6% Green vote to end up Labour or LD.
    However. None of this is any use unless the Tories fall below 40%. And probably nearer 37 consistently.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Fortunately for LAB, Johnson's government is more Bangladesh than India.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    Looks like that Ipsos-MORI phone poll is the current outlier.

    When I did my ELBOW analysis in the run-up to the 2015 election, I found that phone polls (there were a fair few of them back then) gave consistently higher Tory share/lower Labour share.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited August 2021
    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    I can believe that a majority of Afghanistan does not want the Taliban. But given they are not an external occupying force and have maintained support and organisation for two decades, increasing in recent years, it seems impossible to escape the conclusion that a significant number do want them, and the power players who did not want them also did not want to invest in the state the power to stop them, lest it threaten their own power.

    It's tragic and the West has surely cocked up supremely with devastating consequences, but I'm not sure about betrayal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    ThomasNashe said:

    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Fortunately for LAB, Johnson's government is more Bangladesh than India.
    Rather harsh.

    Bangladesh are not *that* bad.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,062
    ThomasNashe said:

    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Fortunately for LAB, Johnson's government is more Bangladesh than India.
    Bangladesh just thumped Australia in a T20 series.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,816
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    Some of the tweets from British soldiers who lost both legs, etc, in Afghanistan, are almost unbearable

    WTF was it all for???

    The West could have kept a small garrison in Afghan in perpetuity for a billion a year. Not ideal. But it would have prevented this terrible shame and disgrace, and rape and bloodshed, which benefits absolutely no one (not even China) apart from radical Islam. It is a calamity
    Western diplomatic and intelligence services involved in Afghanistan are utterly disgraced.

    They had no understanding of the underlying reality.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ...
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Looks like that Ipsos-MORI phone poll is the current outlier.

    When I did my ELBOW analysis in the run-up to the 2015 election, I found that phone polls (there were a fair few of them back then) gave consistently higher Tory share/lower Labour share.

    Yeah, but they were right!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Is it true that England collapsed faster than the Afghan government?
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,062
    ThomasNashe said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
    It’s no surprise coming from people who did a complete about turn on George W Bush and spoke of him admiringly because he opposed Trump.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Northern_Al said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I suspect most "loyal Boris supporters" will not in fact give a damn about events in Afghanistan, unless we accept large numbers of Afghani refugees; it's a country far away from here that few would be able to locate on a map.

    But I agree it's a disgraceful episode of western foreign policy. What made the west think that it could transpose its norms and values into Afghani culture through a combination of military force and bribery, and get buy-in from the locals, including the Afghani army?

    Mercifully, and at least in the short-term, the Taliban 'revolution' seems to have been relatively peaceful. We haven't read of large numbers of casualties, apart from the disorder at the airport. This does seem to indicate that Taliban rule is not unpopular with a lot of Afghanis, perhaps even a majority. There's not a lot we can do about that, however much we don't approve.
    You are sadly deluded. The Taliban really are Islamic Nazis, like ISIS. That’s their USP. Their DNA. Radical, brutal Islam of the most mediaeval variety. What’s more, the most evangelical of them will now feel even more emboldened: we beat Imperial Britain, the USSR and now the USA. We cannot lose, Allah is with us!

    The most extreme within their movement will now assume moral command. Within a few months they will be stoning women and exporting terror, all over again. They are scorpions who have no other weapon than the stinger
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Fortunately for LAB, Johnson's government is more Bangladesh than India.
    Bangladesh just thumped Australia in a T20 series.
    And Johnson thumped Corbyn. Could the analogy be more apt?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,466
    edited August 2021
    As Afghanistan has reminded us that Britain can do sod all overseas without the United States doing the heavy lifting, the Telegraph is unhappy that Kwasi Kwarteng is happily flogging what remains of our defence industry to the Americans.

    Britain’s decline as a global power has been a long one, but you can still see it happening in real time. Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, seems determined to seal this country’s fate with the wholesale sell-off of our defence and aerospace industry to America. Buyers are being allowed to swoop on vital home-grown defence suppliers with impunity.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/16/defence-sector-sell-off-final-nail-coffin-uk-foreign-policy/ (£££)

    This may have betting significance as well – some PBers have backed him to succeed Boris.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,345
    edited August 2021
    Afghanistan

    Firstly well done Saudi Arabia for reportedly being the first country to recognise the Taliban as the new legitimate government of Afghanistan. By your friends shall one know ye

    At last a bit of honesty from Ben Wallace regarding the chances of getting everyone out who the UK intended to get out, ie slim to none. As I mentioned last night both US citizens who would have been involved with the previous government and security apparatus as well as Afghans with the approval to get on a plane are still in the city and many are stuck because, not bloody surprisngly the taliban have set up roadblocks on the routes to KBL. One of those checkpoints is so close you can see it with the Mark 1 eyeball from the airport. If they move and get caught, there is every chance of a problem, one worse for Afghans than perhaps those carrying a US passport. In fact some reports suggest the Taliban are in the airport on the civilian side of the place (unconfirmed)

    The Taliban can make this really hard for the US if they want, simply by refusing to let anyone else out including US Citizens and the US can do fuck all about it. The US wont strike out to regain control of the city or indeed establish zones of control as assembly points (though they could so the latter if they really wanted to slug it out). This all bears the question, just exactly how many troops do you need at the airport? By the time all these apparent UK & US announced troop are on the ground the numbers will be around 8000+ including fragments of other forces. Not all of them are fighting units but plenty of them are, what are they going to be doing?





  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    edited August 2021
    Yes the Tory share is consistent. The main difference seems to be between the Labour share and the LD and Greens share, the lower the latter the higher the Labour share and vice versa
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,062
    ThomasNashe said:

    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Fortunately for LAB, Johnson's government is more Bangladesh than India.
    Bangladesh just thumped Australia in a T20 series.
    And Johnson thumped Corbyn. Could the analogy be more apt?
    Corbyn is more Zimbabwe than Australia when it comes to cricket.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
    It’s no surprise coming from people who did a complete about turn on George W Bush and spoke of him admiringly because he opposed Trump.
    George W Bush now looks like a President worthy of Mount Rushmore compared to Biden and Trump
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Biden about to speak shortly, it's going to be interesting to see what he has to say.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
    It’s no surprise coming from people who did a complete about turn on George W Bush and spoke of him admiringly because he opposed Trump.
    George W Bush now looks like a President worthy of Mount Rushmore compared to Biden and Trump
    Has he commented on current events?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,314
    (FPT)
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Major breaking news, Boris and Macron to hold......a virtual G7 summit on Afghanistan.

    So I am sure they can all rest easy in Kabul tonight
    https://twitter.com/DarrenGBNews/status/1427310517849399296?s=20

    Come on HYUFD give Boris a break.

    Remember cometh the hour, cometh the man.
    I think he should get out there pronto and charm the Taliban into a gibbering wreck with his comedy. It's not too late.
    I still think we should send Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb, Amanda Spielman and the DfE out there to handle logistics for the Taleban.

    They'll be reduced to picking up rocks to throw inside about a week.
    I'd be worried about the rock supply being disrupted. Even in the Stan.
    OMG OMFFFFG the Ancient Athenian Agora

    If the Parthenon disappoints (and it does, despite its sublimity) the Agora is the opposite. OK it probably helped I was half cut on three big ouzos and it was the perfect time of day - 6pm, the Attic sun setting… but it is stunning

    The most perfect Greek temple in the world. Hephaestus. The stoa where stoicism started. The arches where Socrates and Plato and Aristotle argued. The Acropolis glowing above (by far the best view of it). The olive groves where democracy was born. The bloody bidet of Pericles, or something

    Honestly, a genius place, in the true sense. Athens is amazing now the fucking tourists are all dead
    Thank you!
    No, thank YOU. I wouldn’t have gone if you hadn’t raved about it. I’ve been all over the world and I find it easy to be blasé. But, wow

    Especially now, with so few tourists, despite the glories of high summer

    If you ever do it I recommend you do it just how I did it. Uber to the Acropolis, have lunch first. Boozy. Greek salad. Taramasalata. Perhaps in the museum (I didn’t go there but the restaurant is said to be fab)

    Then slog up the Parthenon in the high high heat. Treat it as a pilgrimage, where the suffering is the point. Get to the top. Say, OK, this is a bit shit, but whatever, it’s also amazing. Admire a karyatid and some coffering. Spot Glenn Close in a hat (I did)

    Then, slightly shrugging, walk down the other side, the shadier more interesting side. Past the oldest churches. Have several soothing ouzos in a charming taverna (there are many). Then go to the Agora nearby and basically have an orgasm at the density of beautiful history in a place that looks like an idealised painting of Ancient Greece

    Oh yes. Oh yes.
    I am now jealous. I properly discovered ancient Stoic philosophy over the last 12 months and I now think it is the best attempt at religion ever achieved.
    Yes!

    I love Stoicism (even if I don’t always measure up) but I had no idea of the etymology of the word. Until today

    “The name "Stoicism" derives from the Stoa Poikile (Ancient Greek: ἡ ποικίλη στοά), or "painted porch", a colonnade decorated with mythic and historical battle scenes, on the north side of the Agora in Athens, where Zeno and his followers gathered to discuss their ideas.”

    And you can go there now. Slightly tipsy on ouzo. To the very same place where Zeno and Co discussed their ideas. Wonderful!
    “Don’t always” !
    Are you not the Epicurean antithesis ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,062
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
    It’s no surprise coming from people who did a complete about turn on George W Bush and spoke of him admiringly because he opposed Trump.
    George W Bush now looks like a President worthy of Mount Rushmore compared to Biden and Trump
    There are still dozens of presidents ahead of Dubya for that honour.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,816
    kle4 said:

    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    I can believe that a majority of Afghanistan does not want the Taliban. But given they are not an external occupying force and have maintained support and organisation for two decades, increasing in recent years, it seems impossible to escape the conclusion that a significant number do want them, and the power players who did not want them also did not want to invest in the state the power to stop them, lest it threaten their own power.

    It's tragic and the West has surely cocked up supremely with devastating consequences, but I'm not sure about betrayal.
    That's about it.

    Many actively wanted the Taliban, many others preferred the Taliban to any alternative and far too few were willing to actually fight against the Taliban.

    The West has totally misunderstood the Afghan people.

    It turns out they were not like some nice middle class emigres in the West.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    jonny83 said:

    Biden about to speak shortly, it's going to be interesting to see what he has to say.

    His "No dating before you're 30" gag would be unusually apt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,466
    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    Afghanistan elected the president has just been ousted. If the Taliban was "wanted" it could either have waited for the next election, or not intimidated voters into boycotting the last one.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Comres has joined Survation in providing UK rather than GB data. On the latter basis, its latest poll would have given us Con 42 Lab 34.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    Afghanistan elected the president has just been ousted. If the Taliban was "wanted" it could either have waited for the next election, or not intimidated voters into boycotting the last one.
    If the Afghan people don't like a particular regime or occupying force, they normally start an insurgency against that regime.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    Heathener said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    covid does not seem to be too much of an issue,

    Well I don't wish to sound like a broken record but it's not looking good at all at the moment.

    I shan't bore people with the details. Cases, deaths, hospitalisations going the wrong way. But the worst data of the lot is what is coming out of Israel.

    Trouble ahoy I'm afraid.
    I think you have been of this mindset for a while but to be fair we have to learn to live with it and continue vaccinating and with boosters if necessary
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,995
    another_richard said:


    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.

    I agree - a lot of the vitriol and hyperbole is ridiculous.

    Yes, it's a terrible tragedy but ultimately, and this has to be admitted, the Afghan Army and Air Force, which we trained and equipped, didn't just fail to defend their country - they ran away or surrendered without firing a shot.

    At least in South Vietnam in April 1975, some units fought to the bitter end at Xuan Loc and elsewhere but we've seen so-called Government "strongholds" such as Jalalabad, Mazar-E-Sharif and Kabul fall with virtually no resistance.

    We knew the Karzai and Ghani regimes were corrupt and venal. I suspect we also knew, if push came to shove, no one would fight for them and we also probably knew the key players had already pre-planned their exiles and ensured their money, families and goods were safely taken to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan or wherever. None of them had any stake in defending their country - they probably robbed us blind as well.

    How much of all the largesse we threw at Kabul ended up either where we wanted it or where it would do any good?

    Yet we are beating ourselves up or making cheap political capital - we should be holding those who ran away to account.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Taz said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I agree with you about the shameful nature of this episode. But just fwiw as a Guardian reading lefty-liberal, whose position was up until last week 'hate Johnson, love Biden', it's Uncle Joe who I blame for this.
    It’s no surprise coming from people who did a complete about turn on George W Bush and spoke of him admiringly because he opposed Trump.
    Again just speaking for myself I never had that much of a problem with Dubya. Given a choice would have preferred Gore/ Kerry, but the future of humanity didn't seem to be at stake as was the case when Trump was the candidate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,824
    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    The problem is that is a question those of us with any knowledge of Afghanistan’s history and geography were asking in 2001. Even as an 18-year old student I could see this was a thoroughly bad idea and I thought something along these lines was the likely outcome.

    I was wrong in one crucial respect. I thought it would happen in five years. I underestimated the determination of politicians to save face.
    Heathener said:

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I have to disagree with the last sub clause (hard to disagree with the ‘absolute disgrace’ part). It is, ultimately, one part of a mosaic. One reason why the US has withdrawn from Afghanistan is it has calculated it needs to focus elsewhere. As was true of, to use the parallel others keep making, Vietnam. Withdrawing from Vietnam and staying out allowed a focus on the real challenges - South America and the Middle East. Withdrawing from Afghanistan allows a renewed focus on the ME and the Pacific. It is all about balancing acts.

    Trump, to some extent, did apparently understand this although I don’t know whether he grasped the reasoning behind it. What was Biden supposed to do once Trump had committed to withdrawal? Keep soldiers there to accomplish - well, what exactly? The Taleban were advancing from several years ago. They couldn’t have been kept at bay forever unless NATO abandoned every other commitment it had and focussed just on Afghanistan.

    From that point of view, the real mistake was switching focus to Iraq in 2003. If there was a faint chance of sorting the mess, the assault on Um Qasr is when and where it died. But that is also past praying for.

    So this is shameful, humiliating, a horrible tragedy for the people of Afghanistan. But it was also inevitable from the moment the Americans invaded in support of the Northern Alliance. To call it ‘A defeat of epic proportions’ is just silly hyperbole.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,391
    Anyone think Justin Trudeau could be heading for a fall next months snap Canadian election?

    A couple of weeks of bad Covid news in the middle of a needless general election. Seems risky?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    londonpubman said:

    LAB about as likely to win as England in the cricket 👍

    Is it true that England collapsed faster than the Afghan government?
    Frankly a bit harsh on the Afghan government!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,391
    edited August 2021
    Oh Bidens on the telly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    If the reports of 8-9k US/UK troops to go to Kabul us correct, wtf are they going to do there? Take back the city and get everyone out? Destroy the Afghan army equipment so it doesn't fall into the hands of Taliban and then on to the Chinese (who are surely sniffing around to buy up US equipment).

    This feels extremely half arsed. Biden has played this poorly.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    Biden: everywhere else is now a terrorist hotbed, so we can forget Afghanistan as we got the terrorists there. Hmmm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    stodge said:

    another_richard said:


    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.

    I agree - a lot of the vitriol and hyperbole is ridiculous.

    Yes, it's a terrible tragedy but ultimately, and this has to be admitted, the Afghan Army and Air Force, which we trained and equipped, didn't just fail to defend their country - they ran away or surrendered without firing a shot.

    At least in South Vietnam in April 1975, some units fought to the bitter end at Xuan Loc and elsewhere but we've seen so-called Government "strongholds" such as Jalalabad, Mazar-E-Sharif and Kabul fall with virtually no resistance.

    We knew the Karzai and Ghani regimes were corrupt and venal. I suspect we also knew, if push came to shove, no one would fight for them and we also probably knew the key players had already pre-planned their exiles and ensured their money, families and goods were safely taken to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan or wherever. None of them had any stake in defending their country - they probably robbed us blind as well.

    How much of all the largesse we threw at Kabul ended up either where we wanted it or where it would do any good?

    Yet we are beating ourselves up or making cheap political capital - we should be holding those who ran away to account.
    Much like what happened in in Iraq we have probably been funnelling money to to Taliban via aid to the Afghan government which was then "passed through" to the Taliban.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    I know that everybody’s been very pessimistic about Afghanistan, but here’s maybe a glimmer of optimism. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says:

    - Taliban want to be a legitimate, recognised government this time, in order to ensure continued international aid, which the country is dependent upon.
    - In order to achieve this primary goal, they will not provide a safe haven for terrorists.

    Only one of the world’s research institutes, but let’s hope they’re right!

    (report on Sveriges Radio)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh Bidens on the telly.

    Glad he made such a prompt response 😠.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    I suspect most "loyal Boris supporters" will not in fact give a damn about events in Afghanistan, unless we accept large numbers of Afghani refugees; it's a country far away from here that few would be able to locate on a map.

    But I agree it's a disgraceful episode of western foreign policy. What made the west think that it could transpose its norms and values into Afghani culture through a combination of military force and bribery, and get buy-in from the locals, including the Afghani army?

    Mercifully, and at least in the short-term, the Taliban 'revolution' seems to have been relatively peaceful. We haven't read of large numbers of casualties, apart from the disorder at the airport. This does seem to indicate that Taliban rule is not unpopular with a lot of Afghanis, perhaps even a majority. There's not a lot we can do about that, however much we don't approve.
    You are sadly deluded. The Taliban really are Islamic Nazis, like ISIS. That’s their USP. Their DNA. Radical, brutal Islam of the most mediaeval variety. What’s more, the most evangelical of them will now feel even more emboldened: we beat Imperial Britain, the USSR and now the USA. We cannot lose, Allah is with us!

    The most extreme within their movement will now assume moral command. Within a few months they will be stoning women and exporting terror, all over again. They are scorpions who have no other weapon than the stinger
    I'm not quite sure what I'm 'sadly deluded' about? Nothing in your hyperbolic post contradicts anything in mine, as it happens. But knowing you (from your posts), maybe 'sadly deluded' is a compliment. Who knows.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    londonpubman said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh Bidens on the telly.

    Glad he made such a prompt response 😠.
    He must have been Biden' his time!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,391
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Excuses, excuses, excuses Big G...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    StuartDickson said:

    I know that everybody’s been very pessimistic about Afghanistan, but here’s maybe a glimmer of optimism. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says:

    - Taliban want to be a legitimate, recognised government this time, in order to ensure continued international aid, which the country is dependent upon.
    - In order to achieve this primary goal, they will not provide a safe haven for terrorists.

    Only one of the world’s research institutes, but let’s hope they’re right!

    (report on Sveriges Radio)

    They also signed an agreement with the US government to not takeover the country after the US withdrawal.

    The most likely result will be aid continuing because liberal western idiots will believe them over the empty terrorism promises and they will also harbour terrorists who will commute heinous crimes against the UK, US and other western countries.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    His tone will appeal to Americans but on the global stage America's reputation is damaged and they look weak.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    solarflare said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
    He's got a point though.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,716
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Has Biden been reading PB? That was the spin I suggested!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    Benpointer said:

    solarflare said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
    He's got a point though.
    Oh, I agree. I'm just surprised how plainly he's putting it. But perhaps that is the only thing he can say.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Has Biden been reading PB? That was the spin I suggested!
    I'm guessing his PB id is not @HYUFD.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    solarflare said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
    You would think that in pumping billions of dollars they would check on their investment. A proper assessment in a regular basis, on how the Afghan military and government would cope with a resurgent Taliban.

    Did the US do that? I don't think so, or they did but didn't care.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    Macron '“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows”.
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1427344154883985417?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone think Justin Trudeau could be heading for a fall next months snap Canadian election?

    A couple of weeks of bad Covid news in the middle of a needless general election. Seems risky?

    Well, he got less votes than the opposition at the last election - thank goodness he conveniently and coincidentedly realised getting rid of FPTP was not for him - and a glance at the polling suggests that would no longer be the case. On the basis most campaigns don't alter the base situation too much, my totally uninformed opinion is he should be fine.

    I seem to recall some stories last year he might be forced into an election, scandal troubles perhaps, but he seems to have turned it around I guess.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    All this talk of conflict... Mark Allen vs Reanna Evans up next in the British Open snooker
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,466
    edited August 2021
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Sounds like Joe Biden's been reading PB. ETA: scooped by @Stark_Dawning.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Somewhat bizarrely Redfield & Wilton Strategies failed to find any Lib Dem VI in Scotland. Been a few years I think since the SLDs last managed a big fat zero.

    Scottish sub-sample:
    SNP 49%
    SCon 24%
    SLab 18%
    SGP 2%
    Reform UK 2%
    SLD -
    oth (presumably mostly Alba) 4%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Has Biden been reading PB? That was the spin I suggested!
    I'm guessing his PB id is not @HYUFD.
    Would put a completely different spin on him tipping Trump to win!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,195
    stodge said:

    The LD and Green shares are highest and the Labour share lowest on the only phone poll.

    Not sure what, if anything, we can derive from that?

    I think it varies with prompting. Ld are usually listed, Greens less so and other smaller parties less frequently still.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Has Biden been reading PB? That was the spin I suggested!
    It's the solidest take he can put - many agreed or agree still with the withdrawal, but will rightly be alarmed at how shambolic things have been. Though things could still go wrong for him politically, and he's rightly taken heat, the sheer amount of time, money and lives spent can work for or against him in the eyes of the public. The rapidity of collapse makes his analysis of the risks looks very poor, but also strengthens the sense of inevitability.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Biden really is weak on foreign policy. I have seen talk of it, that domestic policy is his focus. But this conference confirms it.

    China and Russia must be licking their lips thinking what they could get away with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone think Justin Trudeau could be heading for a fall next months snap Canadian election?

    A couple of weeks of bad Covid news in the middle of a needless general election. Seems risky?

    Plus Afghanistan means the Conservatives can go on national security, I doubt they will win but I like the Conservative leader Erin O'Toole and he is pro British and pro Brexit too.

    I am not particularly anti Trudeau, he is certainly better than Singh and the NDP and the BQ but he is taking a big risk and voters do not like being taken for granted, I certainly think there are no guarantees he will get the majority he wants
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Macron '“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows”.
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1427344154883985417?s=20

    What the heck is an 'irregular migratory flow'?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Benpointer said:

    solarflare said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
    He's got a point though.
    Has he? What fool would fight for Afghanistan? How many Afghan people believed in the government and its aims? What proportion even bought into the idea of a secular nation?

    If you can't get the people to believe in the nation they are supposed to be fighting for they won't fight. So it came to pass. It was almost twitter FBPE foolishness on steroids as the liberal idiots spoke to the tiny section of liberal Afghan people in Kabul and they each convinced each other that the wider population in a deeply conservative and Islamist nation was actually on board with the idea of building a secular nation. It never was and I doubt it ever will be.

    Biden is a fool if he truly believed that the Afghan army would ever stand up to the Taliban.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,170
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Macron '“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows”.
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1427344154883985417?s=20

    What the heck is an 'irregular migratory flow'?
    Something that can be cured with senokot?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,466
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    Afghanistan elected the president has just been ousted. If the Taliban was "wanted" it could either have waited for the next election, or not intimidated voters into boycotting the last one.
    If the Afghan people don't like a particular regime or occupying force, they normally start an insurgency against that regime.
    That is how we got the Taliban in the first place. If the British Army could not stand up to the Taliban, what were largely unarmed civilians supposed to do once the Americans had left and their own forces capitulated?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,195
    edited August 2021
    StuartDickson said:

    I know that everybody’s been very pessimistic about Afghanistan, but here’s maybe a glimmer of optimism. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says:

    - Taliban want to be a legitimate, recognised government this time, in order to ensure continued international aid, which the country is dependent upon.
    - In order to achieve this primary goal, they will not provide a safe haven for terrorists.

    Only one of the world’s research institutes, but let’s hope they’re right!

    (report on Sveriges Radio)

    I think that they will quite happily stick to an internal agenda for a while, and have a "leave us alone, we'll leave you alone" policy. Pretty tough on the non-Taliban Afghanis, and I wouldn't count on its lasting.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MaxPB said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I know that everybody’s been very pessimistic about Afghanistan, but here’s maybe a glimmer of optimism. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says:

    - Taliban want to be a legitimate, recognised government this time, in order to ensure continued international aid, which the country is dependent upon.
    - In order to achieve this primary goal, they will not provide a safe haven for terrorists.

    Only one of the world’s research institutes, but let’s hope they’re right!

    (report on Sveriges Radio)

    They also signed an agreement with the US government to not takeover the country after the US withdrawal.

    The most likely result will be aid continuing because liberal western idiots will believe them over the empty terrorism promises and they will also harbour terrorists who will commute heinous crimes against the UK, US and other western countries.
    You’re probably right.

    My brain is just latching on to anything remotely positive, or in reality slightly less negative, than the wall to wall horror scenarios being bandied about.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Yokes said:

    Afghanistan

    Firstly well done Saudi Arabia for reportedly being the first country to recognise the Taliban as the new legitimate government of Afghanistan. By your friends shall one know ye

    At last a bit of honesty from Ben Wallace regarding the chances of getting everyone out who the UK intended to get out, ie slim to none. As I mentioned last night both US citizens who would have been involved with the previous government and security apparatus as well as Afghans with the approval to get on a plane are still in the city and many are stuck because, not bloody surprisngly the taliban have set up roadblocks on the routes to KBL. One of those checkpoints is so close you can see it with the Mark 1 eyeball from the airport. If they move and get caught, there is every chance of a problem, one worse for Afghans than perhaps those carrying a US passport. In fact some reports suggest the Taliban are in the airport on the civilian side of the place (unconfirmed)

    The Taliban can make this really hard for the US if they want, simply by refusing to let anyone else out including US Citizens and the US can do fuck all about it. The US wont strike out to regain control of the city or indeed establish zones of control as assembly points (though they could so the latter if they really wanted to slug it out). This all bears the question, just exactly how many troops do you need at the airport? By the time all these apparent UK & US announced troop are on the ground the numbers will be around 8000+ including fragments of other forces. Not all of them are fighting units but plenty of them are, what are they going to be doing?


    Do you think these troop announcements are meaningful - or are they just PR? Obviously we need to 'do something' - but presumably what actually needs to be done is a deal to get the people out. Obviously there is some kind of deal already, as the airport is operational and the runway hasn't been blown up - which would be possible and would presumably end the whole thing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    jonny83 said:

    Biden really is weak on foreign policy. I have seen talk of it, that domestic policy is his focus. But this conference confirms it.

    China and Russia must be licking their lips thinking what they could get away with.

    Let alone China and Russia, I think the Taliban are now licking their lips thinking what they could get away with now. Basically Biden is saying as long as they don't attack US troops they're welcome to the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Macron '“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows”.
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1427344154883985417?s=20

    What the heck is an 'irregular migratory flow'?
    Mass asylum seekers from Afghanistan I imagine
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Conclusion to Jenufa being played at the Proms this minute: just the most sublime conclusion to an opera!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    solarflare said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden blaming the Afghanistan leaders and their army for not standing up to the Taliban

    He is not convincing to be honest

    Pretty damning, isn't he?

    Might not be wrong, but I am a bit surprised as to how blunt he's being.
    He's got a point though.
    Has he? What fool would fight for Afghanistan? How many Afghan people believed in the government and its aims? What proportion even bought into the idea of a secular nation?

    If you can't get the people to believe in the nation they are supposed to be fighting for they won't fight. So it came to pass. It was almost twitter FBPE foolishness on steroids as the liberal idiots spoke to the tiny section of liberal Afghan people in Kabul and they each convinced each other that the wider population in a deeply conservative and Islamist nation was actually on board with the idea of building a secular nation. It never was and I doubt it ever will be.

    Biden is a fool if he truly believed that the Afghan army would ever stand up to the Taliban.
    I doubt if he did believe that. But his stance is surely valid, the US Army cannot prop up an Afghan government forever.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited August 2021
    StuartDickson said:

    I know that everybody’s been very pessimistic about Afghanistan, but here’s maybe a glimmer of optimism. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says:

    - Taliban want to be a legitimate, recognised government this time, in order to ensure continued international aid, which the country is dependent upon.
    - In order to achieve this primary goal, they will not provide a safe haven for terrorists.

    Only one of the world’s research institutes, but let’s hope they’re right!

    (report on Sveriges Radio)

    Yes, this would fit with the sense and hints I've gradually picked up over the last couple of days, despite most of the media apparently already having decided, and immediately jumping to the conclusion that this is the 1990s Taliban II.

    There may be more repressive and liberal factions battling it out, but something different from that seems to be going on , so far.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    Biden ended his speech and turned and fled from the press

    Not a good look
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,051
    edited August 2021
    Nick Cohen 'What a pathetic figure Biden cuts. He wanted to be Roosevelt and now he's Carter.'
    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1427293951199952898?s=20

    Though at least Carter has redeemed himself post presidency with his humanitarian work
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,195
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    another_richard said:

    Heathener said:

    Words fail me on Afghanistan.

    And unlike most other stories over the past few months this one will really bite with loyal Boris supporters. The Mail and Telegraph are up in arms and the question is being asked about why all 'our boys' died in vain out there, let alone the utter betrayal of the Afghan peoples.

    Whatever your views on our involvement twenty years ago, this is an absolutely disgraceful episode in western foreign policy, a defeat of epic proportions.

    How have we betrayed the Afghan peoples if the Taliban is what they want ?

    Strange it may seem to you and me but that seems to be the unfortunate reality.

    And all the endless billions spent on 'nation building' was a waste.

    Just imagine how much good that money could have achieved it we had spent it elsewhere.
    Afghanistan elected the president has just been ousted. If the Taliban was "wanted" it could either have waited for the next election, or not intimidated voters into boycotting the last one.
    If the Afghan people don't like a particular regime or occupying force, they normally start an insurgency against that regime.
    That is how we got the Taliban in the first place. If the British Army could not stand up to the Taliban, what were largely unarmed civilians supposed to do once the Americans had left and their own forces capitulated?
    I think there are plenty of weapons in Afghanistan, and it wouldn't be unexpected for various factions to fall out with each other and fight with all the venom that splinter groups do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,391
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Biden ended his speech and turned and fled from the press

    Not a good look

    He probably needs a nap...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    Nick Cohen 'What a pathetic figure Biden cuts. He wanted to be Roosevelt and now he's Carter.'
    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1427293951199952898?s=20

    Though at least Carter has redeemed himself post presidency with his humanitarian work

    I don't think Biden will get 40 years post presidency.
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