Daily 36,389 Last 7 days 309,742 up 31,747 (11.4%)
Not out of the woods yet....but not going deeper into them either.....so far....
By Monday we should be seeing week on week falls. Probably pretty slow and a tad erratic at first but the right direction.
Today is a week-on-week fall.
Today the last 7 days are 31,747 more than the previous 7 days which is an increase of 11% but that percentage is falling fast and will be negative early next week. That's what I meant.
Ah - I mean that today's number was lower than seven days ago, but reading the previous quote, you are clearly correct.
This wave has - I think - been very helpful to the UK. It's added a lot of new people with some degree of protection. When schools go back in September, we'll be in a position to start vaccinating 12-17 year olds, and for (most adult groups) herd immunity will be largely reached.
Last Friday did anyone think the cases would have fallen this much?
Yes, me. And I was ridiculed on here.
I did too. Was also told it was "unlikely" by the smartest guy in the room. Football ending + schools closing was inevitably going to result in a drop off in cases.
Last Friday did anyone think the cases would have fallen this much?
Yes, me. And I was ridiculed on here.
I did too. Was also told it was "unlikely" by the smartest guy in the room. Football ending + schools closing was inevitably going to result in a drop off in cases.
Last Friday did anyone think the cases would have fallen this much?
Yes, me. And I was ridiculed on here.
I did too. Was also told it was "unlikely" by the smartest guy in the room. Football ending + schools closing was inevitably going to result in a drop off in cases.
I did too, I think. But I am surprised by how abruptly growth seems to have stopped. I thought we'd plateau for a bit at 50-55,000 cases a day. Instead of which we seem to have dropped straight back to the high 30s.
My oldest daughters' last day at primary school today. Year 6 have been having a water fight all day and have decamped en masse to the park to continue. Such joy on their faces. Startling to think this would have been illegal not long ago. I will never take freedom like this for granted again. The school, I should add, have been absolutely brilluant in trying to give them as memorable a last few weeks as possible, given the circumstances and the repeated bubble popping. Public sector josworths these people are not.
Delighted to hear it. Earlier on we were discussing the age groups of those children sent home to self-isolate. I thought there were plenty of 2-11yr olds, using your daughter as an example. Do we have any idea how widespread it was at that age range?
Yep, I'm aware of plenty of children between 5-11 who have been sent home to isolate including (even last week) whole classes
I think the UK will eventually agree a semi-free movement deal for under 35s from most EU countries on a bilateral basis. Similar to what we've just agreed with Australia. It suits all parties.
Does not suit me and I suspect doesn't suit those youngsters who are finally getting off rock bottom minimum wages due to not having an essentially infinite labour pool to draw on to keep wages at the bottom. Hospitality workers for example
That argument only works if you have significant unemployment, which was certainly not the case before covid.
If you have virtually full employment, and then you send away most of those doing menial jobs, the net effect is that more indigenous people end up doing menial jobs instead of more fulfilling work, albeit for somewhat higher wages than those who they replace. And everything gets more expensive.
For a lot of indigenous people especially the young menial work like stacking shelves and waiting tables is all they can get for a few years. If you can afford to go out for a meal you can afford to pay a little more. Maybe then the staff waiting on you can also afford to go out for a meal occasionally.
If the pay rises high enough due to staff shortages people from abroad will be able to get visa's under the points system to come do it.
For example my son, got a top class MsC from UCL in biochemistry....spent 3 years doing such menial jobs till he managed to find a non menial one, also know a friend of his that got a first in marine biology...still working in costa's after 8 years because he cant find a not hospitality job
I'm not sure how you think your son would benefit from there being fewer less-educated migrants here. Granted, he'd have been better paid for his menial work, but he'd probably still be doing it (given the greater need for indigenous menial workers).
Nobody asked me, but I think the scrapping of district councils (in North Yorkshire, Cumbria, and Somerset) is a mistake.
However I think the districts should concentrate on town management, local plans and planning consent, and most everything else (education, skills, police, health, transport, housing) left to the county.
Cumbria also missed a trick by not splitting along the old Cumberland / Westmorland / Furness lines.
Last Friday did anyone think the cases would have fallen this much?
Yes, me. And I was ridiculed on here.
I did too. Was also told it was "unlikely" by the smartest guy in the room. Football ending + schools closing was inevitably going to result in a drop off in cases.
We have to hope that Delta has now burned itself out, because if it hasn’t cases will start rising again in a week or so’s time.
So the issue is that we may see a levelling off in the drop because stage 4 activity offsets the falls in activity from schools and football.
What's interesting is the analysis above that's saying 99% of cases are in people with no antibodies from prior infection dropping to 86% with double vaxxed status. That means 86% of infections (and there were 750K last week) are creating completely new antibodies. Our funnel still has another ~2m infections in this wave in addition to the ~3m there have already been. At 86% that's about 4.3m people will have got antibodies in this wave that were unvaxxed or previously uninfected at the time. We can, in a simplistic sense, add those numbers onto our vaccine programme number of double jabbed. It brings us very, very close to herd immunity.
The suggestion in the thread posted by Carlotta above, is that risk of reinfection from Delta increases after 6 months, so we would start seeing people who were infected over Christmas (and not vaccinated) increasingly vulnerable to reinfection. This reduces the extent to which we can consider them providing herd immunity.
Does seem like the remaining second doses we have to do will make a big difference with controlling the spread of Delta though. We will probably regret not ensuring that as many teenagers as possible are double-dosed before schools go back in September.
Freddie Sayers @freddiesayers Collision symbolTrump insider @JasonMillerinDC , who spoke to the former president yesterday, tells me that the chances of him running in 2024 have gone up in recent weeks, from 50/50 to more like 2 to 1.
Freddie Sayers @freddiesayers Collision symbolTrump insider @JasonMillerinDC , who spoke to the former president yesterday, tells me that the chances of him running in 2024 have gone up in recent weeks, from 50/50 to more like 2 to 1.
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Does seem like the remaining second doses we have to do will make a big difference with controlling the spread of Delta though. We will probably regret not ensuring that as many teenagers as possible are double-dosed before schools go back in September.
Giving wings out to hundreds of barely-trained joyriders every year, will somewhat devalue them in the eyes of the actual astronauts.
Still a fantastic pair of achievements from Branson and Bezos though, this really *is* rocket science, and the more rocket scientists the better.
this Thread has just been pinged!
In the Wolff book he was saying that to everyone on AF1 on the final flight to Mar-a-Lago.