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BoJo says is won’t happen Punters make it a 72% further restrictions will come in this year – politi
BoJo says is won’t happen Punters make it a 72% further restrictions will come in this year – politicalbetting.com
One of the more interesting betting markets at the moment is the above from Smarkets on whether there is going to be any reintroduction of COVID restrictions.
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God alone knows...
Oh dear. Politics.
Two points.
- The UK has enough vaccine to give two mRNA doses with 8 week gap to every adult who wants them. Do NOT hesitate to get jabbed on supply grounds.
- JCVI advice on dosage gaps and teenagers is being given on scientific grounds not political ones.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1418303849731956736?s=20
However, the planning process and public inquiry aspects become more difficult and protracted once you have to start compulsorily purchasing property for demolition, which is why just a few house on the old trackbed can block a minor line. My local line - Alton to Winchester - is probably permanently blocked beyond Alresford by only 11 or 12 houses and some school playing fields but that's really because of its business case.
This doesn't apply for major lines with political will, like the Waverley Line or HS2, because the politicians view it as strategic and are willing to invest.
@AllieHBNews
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48s
Friday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Covid infections in young adults hit record” #TomorrowsPapersToday
(includes news that Cabinet office is working on plan for social distancing to be reintroduced in August).
On the one hand, the overall hospital patient total doesn't appear to be climbing as rapidly as in the past, and there are some tentative signals from the data which might suggest to the layman such as I that the Covid situation won't get too out of control.
On the other hand, there are all the other nasties that have been suppressed by nearly 18 months of restrictions and several lockdown cycles. A lot of flu, and cases of other bugs like RSV that the pandemic has introduced to us, could compound Covid and get hospitals screaming and the medics demanding the Government locks people back up again.
A probability of no curbs coming back as high as 1 in 4 seems a tad on the optimistic side.
I have been surprised by how chipper the fanbois are this evening. Perhaps Bozza has won the war on Covid after all.
But there’s a time and place for every battle
Vaccination is more important right now than a stand against gender segregation
@chrischirp
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29m
Turns out we have enough moderna for there to be no supply issues for remaining adults. Thanks
@jonworth for clarifying from
@PaulMainwood
If so the odds in the market seems fair, but if it's not then the odds for No seems value.
The idea of a supply crunch is ridiculous. We're simply demand limited, hence the government pushing vaccine passports to get another 4m under 40s vaxxed.
"How to lose a stone in a day, the Dr Foxy way..."
I think the current stuff will all turn around within 2 weeks, but if we are doing kids is either before school starts or wham! in the first weeks of term.
Whether my current prediction will be a accurate as the last one where I forecast 40,000 cases and it was 39,950 on that date (polishes nails on shirtfront), I don't know.
"Shows no sign of slowing down"...."as the epidemic picks up speed"
https://youtu.be/r_dMk0x_k3
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57934076
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9815591/German-TV-reporter-fired-caught-smearing-mud-filming.html
Did the far more serious German FT Fake newer ever get the sack?
Therefore... the Israeli people only have a 16% effective vaccine against Delta? If that were the case, then case numbers would be absolutely rocketing. And that's not really happening. In fact, like in the UK and the Netherlands, case numbers are slowing sharply - with the rolling seven day average growth down to pretty low levels now.
So, not clear how the numbers were calculated.
16%....that would mean the PHE numbers were miles out and surely we would be seeing a hell of a lot more than 15% out UK cases being double vaxxed and way more than 50k cases by now (with them highly concentrated among the young).
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15666642/harry-kane-160million-move-manchester-city/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/
That sead in a nation with lots of people who chose not to take the vaccine, and with the known transmutability of the Delta variant, that still implies to me a much better than 16% effectiveness of the Vaccines I suspect somebody has done a maths error somewhere.
Let’s hope the Tokyo Games can rise above all the miserabilism
Mick Hume"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/07/22/will-covid-and-wokeness-kill-the-olympic-spirit/
Alan Jope rejected the label despite saying the Marmite, Domestos and Magnum owner is committed to campaigning for "universal human truths" such as social justice and refugee rights.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/22/not-woke-says-unilever-boss/
Can't you just sell me stuff to eat?
This Olympics will fail due to lack of spectators and athletes missing due to Covid. It also won't spark here because of the really inconvenient time zone.
Or it may be regarded as a relative success given the aforementioned.
Wokeness won't feature in the shakeout. Unless the government decides to go in spikes up on the GB team. But they may have learned their lesson.
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Humberstone and Hamilton (Leicester), council by-election result:
CON: 44.7% (+18.4)
LAB: 33.2% (-15.6)
LDEM: 11.0% (+1.2)
GRN: 8.0% (-7.1)
FBM: 1.6% (+1.6)
REFUK: 1.6% (+1.6
Conservative GAIN from Labour."
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418346714000470017
Lockdowns were a important emergency measure in the chaos of the early pandemic. They cannot be used as a comfort blanket forever.
Soon a tome will be written. The Strange Death of Labour Midlands.
Swing to Tories from Women's Equality Party in Thanet.
Swing to Labour and 81% of the vote in South Wales.
Labour and the Tories going forward in Wirral. Green vote halved. 11% UKIP vote going no discernible place.
NEW: Los Angeles County reports 2,767 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 18
Mexico reports 16,244 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January, and 419 new deaths
Cuba reports 7,745 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 65 new deaths
All forms of modelling carried out by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) point to a significant rise in hospitalisations from the end of summer, The Independent has been told. In the worst-case scenario, this could amount to 2,000 hospital admissions a day by mid-August.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-restrictions-cases-deaths-latest-uk-b1888037.html?amp
In the overall scheme there are relatively few "support/development services" for the UK in either the Hunter or the CSC. They have bought the rights to the design which are now heavily modified for their needs and preferences. That's it.
The head of Paris’s regional council declared herself a presidential candidate yesterday, laying down a challenge to Xavier Bertrand, the frontrunner in the race for the conservative nomination at elections next April.
Having been re-elected last month to a second regional term, Valérie Pécresse, 54, promised to “restore French pride” as a “free woman” who would impose social order but promote liberal, pro-business and green policies with a “feminist social touch”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/valerie-pecresse-adds-feminist-touch-to-french-presidential-elections-8zq07bvv2 (£££)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57937492
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/22/lex-greensill-given-extraordinarily-privileged-government-access-inquiry-finds
‘Whitewash’ claims after Greensill review finds no need for lobbying reform
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-cameron-and-greensill-review-finds-no-need-for-lobbying-reform-nzqknl5zz (£££)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/new-zealand-shuts-australia-travel-bubble-as-sydneys-covid-outbreak-worsens
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/07/22/bbc-sky-fire-unreadable-on-screen-hundred-graphics/
They are bloody awful....
https://twitter.com/LucyStats/status/1418370036918624256?s=20
There is something very off with that figure (and the 44%) compared to the rest. The tweet gives a reason as because it was the most vulnerable, but all the other stuff looks pretty much in line with the PHE stats, so not so sure. Perhaps it is sample size issue.
Instead, it'll probably be taking a more northerly route near my village.
There are two alternatives from there to Cambridge; a southerly route and a northerly route. The southerly route is preferred, but has people in the villages up in arms, and there is a well-organised campaign to get a northerly route chosen. A campaign group have basically 'designed' this northern route by drawing on a map in crayon, and it's been interesting to see how they've adapted it as I, and others, have highlighted its issues.
In response, people in villages to the northeast are organising, but their campaign is much more lacklustre.
It'll be interesting to see which way it goes; my own view is that the northern route is unsustainable - especially if it involves building a chord on the meadows in Cambridge. There's a whole host of other nimbys to fight right there. My fear is that the opposition will be so strong that the entire scheme gets dropped.
Experts say the findings support the UK's decision on extending dosing intervals from the initial recommendation of three weeks. An eight-week gap seems to be the sweet spot for tackling the Delta variant.
- both short and long dosing intervals of the Pfizer vaccine generated strong immune responses overall
- a three-week schedule generated fewer of the neutralising antibodies that can bind the virus and stop it infecting cells than a 10-week interval
- while antibody levels dipped after the first dose, levels of T-cells - a different type of immune cell - remained high
- the longer schedule led to fewer T-cells overall but a higher proportion of a specific type or subset, called helper T-cells, which according to the researchers, supports immune memory
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57929953
You can find some official info on PCR testing here:
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-07-22.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Which shows numbers of PCR tests have fallen a lot, presumably due to the summer holidays.
I'm near-certain restrictions will be re-imposed this autumn. Everyone I know thinks the same.
Enjoy this easing whilst you can.