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Two very different General Election outcomes from this week’s polls – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 21 in General
imageTwo very different General Election outcomes from this week’s polls – politicalbetting.com

For the projections, I have used Martin Baxter’s longstanding seat calculator. As can be seen the polling and the seat projections are in separate universes and there is no way you can rationalise it except that Survation’s fieldwork was four days later a period that was pretty bad for BoJo.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,870
    First?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    I suggest MPs don't travel too far away from Westminster.

    I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    8m
    Attention ⁦@UKLabour
    ⁩. This is what a backbone looks like.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1417894296192225282
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,817
    +30,587 cases in Spain.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    As trailed on here yesterday I think:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57922712

    3% pay rise for the NHS.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    How does that compare with last week?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,817

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    How does that compare with last week?
    Last Wednesday was 26k.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,868
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 216

    I suggest MPs don't travel too far away from Westminster.

    I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.

    I'm not sure whether the Government is indifferent to the effects of the dreaded pingdemic, too stupid to recognise that there is a problem, or may, perhaps, be hoping that enough people disable or delete the offending app before the nation grinds to a halt.

    Who knows what they're doing? They probably don't know what they're doing themselves.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,829
    A thread of brilliant Express predictions.
    https://twitter.com/TOABBOfficial/status/1415963774167797762
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf

    There was a lot of gaps in Morrisons 10 minutes ago.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,868

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,798
    Nigelb said:

    A thread of brilliant Express predictions.
    https://twitter.com/TOABBOfficial/status/1415963774167797762

    The Express has not espoused a sensible view since about 1990.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,817

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Germany and Italy are plateauing at a level well below the UK. France is still vaccinating at a good rate but they are behind Germany and Italy at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035
    Leg side wide first ball lol
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,057

    I suggest MPs don't travel too far away from Westminster.

    I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.

    Just bringing forward the 'no longer need to isolate if double jabbed' date will do it, surely?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,076
    Well, after they came up with their cunning plan they did ....

    Forensic innit
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,764

    I suggest MPs don't travel too far away from Westminster.

    I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.

    Asking MPs would be progress, for this government.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,463

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I think Mike suggested Covid is far from finished!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Watching The Hundred and those graphics and the DRS split screens are awful.

    I cannot see me watching much more of this visual rubbish.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,518

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Germany and Italy are plateauing at a level well below the UK. France is still vaccinating at a good rate but they are behind Germany and Italy at the moment.
    Germany, at least, has mostly used the Pfizer vaccine, while I believe the main vaccine used in the UK is the AZ one. Any difference in their effectiveness could also prove critical when attempting to achieve herd immunity against the delta variant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415

    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf

    Well since obesity is a major problem, which contributed to Covid-19 cases, maybe this isn't such a bad thing.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    How does that compare with last week?
    Last Wednesday was 26k.
    Thanks
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825
    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825

    I suggest MPs don't travel too far away from Westminster.

    I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.

    Nothing ever happens in August - well, not too often, I mean, hardly ever....

    You're probably right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949
    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,010
    eek said:

    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf

    There was a lot of gaps in Morrisons 10 minutes ago.
    Stocked up on Richmonds meat free burgers yesterday 😎
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,010
    Andy_JS said:

    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf

    Well since obesity is a major problem, which contributed to Covid-19 cases, maybe this isn't such a bad thing.
    Obesity is caused by carbs mainly
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    I think the entire marketing strategy behind the Hundred is that it is not possible to sell the game of cricket.

    On a side point I object to the name “Manchester Originals”. I’m going to insist on calling them Ordinary (you’ve probably got to be from southwest London to get that...)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,870

    Watching The Hundred and those graphics and the DRS split screens are awful.

    I cannot see me watching much more of this visual rubbish.

    It's a bit dull so far.

    Maybe it's just because the crowd at the T20 yesterday was so much more excited about things.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    I think I like the 90 one better so I will assume that this is the better poll!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,868
    edited July 21

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    FPT
    Mexicanpete said:
    » show previous quotes
    Did he enter politics?

    My interpretation was that he felt, poor children should get a nutritious meal each day during the school holidays. Johnson did not agree... initially, and this is where the hostility arose.

    If his campaign had been to look after stray dogs during the pandemic, Carrie would have been on board, and all would have been fine.
    To me Marcus Rashford is a very, very rich young man who has not forgotten what it was like to be poor and even hungry. Good for him. So many of our leading footballers are prima donnas who have forgotten what any aspect of real life is like. His campaign to have free school meals for kids out of school seemed to me to be well judged and reasonable. There are a lot of reasons why extra benefits might not result in extra meals for kids and this cuts through to what we want to achieve. Kids with full bellies. His campaign was also very skilfully and professionally managed which kept it measured and broadly non party political. That was smart and improved its effectiveness. He was also smart enough not to rub Boris's face in it.

    Does any of this make him exempt from a look by the likes of the Spectator? Of course not, its a free country. But I for one will be slow to jump on any bandwagon targeted at a remarkable young man who seems to genuinely care when he has no need to.

    I just wish he would score more goals for United.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    edited July 21
    Delete duplicate
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,076
    America really does have problems

    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1417697815661326344

    GOP city council member in Alabama says "do we have a house n****r in here?" to a Black woman on the council.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388
    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440

    Watching The Hundred and those graphics and the DRS split screens are awful.

    I cannot see me watching much more of this visual rubbish.

    It's a bit dull so far.

    Maybe it's just because the crowd at the T20 yesterday was so much more excited about things.
    The 100 is a really stupid idea. Twenty20 is a perfect version of the very short version of the game. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to try and re-invent it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    edited July 21

    Watching The Hundred and those graphics and the DRS split screens are awful.

    I cannot see me watching much more of this visual rubbish.

    It's a bit dull so far.

    Maybe it's just because the crowd at the T20 yesterday was so much more excited about things.

    They’ve oversold it as being something exciting in a different way. Ultimately most of the differences are silly gimmicks. Umpires calling “five”. Really?

    I wonder how long it will be before they realise that “runs per over” is actually an easier to understand concept than “x runs in y balls”. For me, runs per ball only really makes sense in a world where needing a run a ball is a benchmark. That was probably the case in ODIs about 15-20 years ago. It’s never been the case in shorter formats. So actually it’s much easier to use (required) runs per over as a way of assessing the match situation.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    edited July 21

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 448
    edited July 21

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
    Delta is spreading so quickly that any wave will happen over the next month and vaccinations are catching upto the UK , also many countries are vaccinating children 12 to 17 which will likely help to suppress the virus in the autumn . So I don’t see a situation where Bozo can laud it over the rest of Europe . He lucked out with the vaccinations , apart from that he’s been a waste of space and has blown the “ world beating vaccinations “ feel good factor by a series of clusterfucks over the last week .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440

    Andy_JS said:

    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 34m
    UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf

    Well since obesity is a major problem, which contributed to Covid-19 cases, maybe this isn't such a bad thing.
    Obesity is caused by carbs mainly
    And there's me thinking it was a result of me eating and drinking too much without enough exercise.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 951
    What governments (and opposition political parties) need to do when developing policy is to privately subject all short listed proposals to extreme multiple "grillings" (including equivalent of Andrew Neill in his prime, on steroids). If you cannot defend a policy or do not feel comfortable defending a policy under aggressive interrogation then drop it. As I have got older I have got much better at spotting the problems with any proposal, it is a sort of negative creativity so I am available for hire.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    nico679 said:

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
    Delta is spreading so quickly that any wave will happen over the next month and vaccinations are catching upto the UK , also many countries are vaccinating children 12 to 17 which will likely help to suppress the virus in the autumn . So I don’t see a situation where Bozo can laud it over the rest of Europe . He lucked out with the vaccinations , apart from that he’s been a waste of space and has blown the “ world beating vaccinations “ feel good factor by a series of clusterfucks over the last week .
    I wonder how many countries are truly vaccinating kids out of preference, or to mitigate against poor uptake in their adult populations?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”










    *F
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169
    nico679 said:

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
    Delta is spreading so quickly that any wave will happen over the next month and vaccinations are catching upto the UK , also many countries are vaccinating children 12 to 17 which will likely help to suppress the virus in the autumn . So I don’t see a situation where Bozo can laud it over the rest of Europe . He lucked out with the vaccinations , apart from that he’s been a waste of space and has blown the “ world beating vaccinations “ feel good factor by a series of clusterfucks over the last week .
    Yes, it is all going to be much of a muchness. We may have a slight edge on numbers vaccinated, but are more densely populated. We also have a more fragile health system with less spare capacity.

    My hospital is on OPEL4 (the highest level) with 17 ambulances unable to unload on the Emergency Dept forecourt this evening. Most isn't covid, but pressure is extreme. All at the time that leave is being taken, juniors are rotating (4th August is when the newly qualified take up posts) and numbers of staff are isolating.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
    Yep people always ignore the multiple reasons why other countries don’t quite live up to their fabled (in the U.K.) reputations/images. The U.K. always screws everything up. And this isn’t a new thing it’s been happening for centuries. And yet we always seem to come out of it ok at the other end.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
    Delta is spreading so quickly that any wave will happen over the next month and vaccinations are catching upto the UK , also many countries are vaccinating children 12 to 17 which will likely help to suppress the virus in the autumn . So I don’t see a situation where Bozo can laud it over the rest of Europe . He lucked out with the vaccinations , apart from that he’s been a waste of space and has blown the “ world beating vaccinations “ feel good factor by a series of clusterfucks over the last week .
    Yes, it is all going to be much of a muchness. We may have a slight edge on numbers vaccinated, but are more densely populated. We also have a more fragile health system with less spare capacity.

    My hospital is on OPEL4 (the highest level) with 17 ambulances unable to unload on the Emergency Dept forecourt this evening. Most isn't covid, but pressure is extreme. All at the time that leave is being taken, juniors are rotating (4th August is when the newly qualified take up posts) and numbers of staff are isolating.

    Well I suppose there are positives to take out of that! We’ve got capacity to gear up the health service in a few weeks!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    +30,587 cases in Spain.

    And 7,255 already in hospital.

    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf

    Covid is far from finished with Europe.

    Whatever Mike thinks.
    I am not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.
    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.

    These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.

    But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.

    What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
    Delta is spreading so quickly that any wave will happen over the next month and vaccinations are catching upto the UK , also many countries are vaccinating children 12 to 17 which will likely help to suppress the virus in the autumn . So I don’t see a situation where Bozo can laud it over the rest of Europe . He lucked out with the vaccinations , apart from that he’s been a waste of space and has blown the “ world beating vaccinations “ feel good factor by a series of clusterfucks over the last week .
    Yes, it is all going to be much of a muchness. We may have a slight edge on numbers vaccinated, but are more densely populated. We also have a more fragile health system with less spare capacity.

    My hospital is on OPEL4 (the highest level) with 17 ambulances unable to unload on the Emergency Dept forecourt this evening. Most isn't covid, but pressure is extreme. All at the time that leave is being taken, juniors are rotating (4th August is when the newly qualified take up posts) and numbers of staff are isolating.

    Take care @Foxy, no unnecessary risks.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”










    *F
    I’m not sure if that was agreeing or disagreeing with me, but I should add that I was using the terms “right” and “wrong” very loosely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,817
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
    Free (anti-)body culture.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,570
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
    I suspect that one way or another there won't be quite as many of those sort of people around come 2022.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    edited July 21
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”










    *F
    I’m not sure if that was agreeing or disagreeing with me, but I should add that I was using the terms “right” and “wrong” very loosely.
    Fair enough: you got me on a bit of a hobby horse of mine about closed and open questions (which is I think the current terminology).

    Edit: no it isn’t; open questions are ones with no limit to the answers, nothing to do with if the answers are right or wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:



    It is not yet clear that the good people of, say, Wokingham, will certainly prefer the Burgon/Pidcock/Sturgeon/Davey/tree hugging alliance to John Redwood. That will be their choice.

    Its posh seats which people of working age want to live in. Guildford, St Albans etc yes, Arundel is for the retired posh.
    That's right, also within constituencies. In my patch (Hunt's constituency, SW Surrey) the Tories are down to 2 County Councillors out of 7, and both are in the villages where there are masses of wealthy retired people, while they have fallen miles behind the LibDems (and behind Labour at Borough level in some places like mine) in the small towns. Another factor is a college in the area even if not a full-blown university.

    On algarkirk's hypothesis, for all the doubts about Starmer's positive ideas, few people will feel he's going to be a puppet of Burgon and Pidcock (if they've even heard of them). Is a possible post-election understanding with Sturgeon going to seem very terrifying in Wokingham? Will voters there care much about that? As for tree-huggers, lots of wealthy folk are quite open to a bit of greenery.
    Interesting. In SW Surrey LD strength goes back decades so I shall wait and see, while agreeing that the Tories remain vulnerable in a number of seats. Your remaining argument is strong, that I fully accept. At the next election there is going to be strong contest between the Tories and all others. Personally I think the Tories as the only option for a majority government will hold attractions, that the LDs will do well but as usual spread too thin, and that the Tories will win SW Surrey and Wokingham.

    I agree that Nicola is not a threat in Surrey or Wokingham in the same way she is in my English northern borders patch (if I stand up I can see Scotland). But neither is the idea of a government relying on the SNP a positive attraction anywhere in England. They may not be loathed but they are far from loved.

    More loved than the others.

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon the most popular leader in the UK, poll finds’

    Polling asked voters last week how they thought each UK party leader was performing, with the First Minister receiving a net +24% approval rating in Scotland and +10% across the UK.

    By contrast, Boris Johnson scored -35% in Scotland and -8% across the UK, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was given a -17% by people in Scotland and +9% in the UK, and LibDem leader Ed Davey scored -15% and -12% respectively; making Sturgeon the most popular leader in both Scotland and the UK.


    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19054486.nicola-sturgeon-popular-leader-uk-poll-finds/
    Only because she has now gone soft on pushing indyref2, which is why the hardline Nats in Alba hate her
    https://twitter.com/KennyMacAskill/status/1415344843862298635?s=20
    The hardline Nats who hate Nicola Sturgeon are BritNats like you.
    HYUFD is a Conservative,
    Don't be silly. He is many things. A Conservative he is not.

    Nigel finds it much easier to associate with authoritarian "Conservatives" that believe in Jackboots, invading Scotland and Spain etc like HYUFD than he does the liberal wing of the Party like myself.
    You are a libertarian not a conservative
    As are many Conservatives. As is the PM, as were Thatcher and Cameron. As is Truss.

    The Party is not just a party for authoritarian Jackboot wearers like yourself and Nigel.
    So there’s room in the party for more than just authoritarian jackboot wearers? And you’re happy to be in a party with these people?
    Most of Philip's posts on here could easily be written by someone of the far right, with the exception of some incongruous support for BLM, which might be because he doesn't like being labelled as a Faragist, even though he voted for the Brexit Party and up until recently seemed pretty enthusiastic about them. Poor lad is a bit confused.
    You're a liar, or pig ignorant.

    I've never once been enthusiastic in voting for the Brexit Party. I have only ever been enthusiastic in voting for David Cameron and Boris Johnson's Conservatives.

    Voting in a protest vote against what has always been my own party was done in sorrow and regret at what May was turning our party into and that she needed to go. Mission accomplished.
    I don't approve of lying , Philip, which is why I do not approve of Johnson, an habitual liar whom you seem to be so in love with. I am sure it is not unrequited because he loves the gullible.

    As for you voting Brexit Party, if we accept your very weak excuse, and seeing as you now seem to accept they are a fascist party, would you have voted BNP if they were the best vehicle to get "mission accomplished"? The truth is you voted for a fascist party and you know it. Your pretence now that you are some kind of moderate really does not wash, and it doesn't help that you are getting angry about it. You are a frothing right winger, and at one stage you seemed pretty proud of that. If you were American you would be voting Trump and driving around in a pickup.
    Although objectionable to me the Brexit party was not a Fascist party. (I've no idea of its current state.) To label it as such is frankly ludicrous.
    Philip seems to accept now that it is a fascist party, but still voted for it. I am of teh centre right so I am not an hysterical lefty engaging in hyperbole. I think there are definite parallels between Faragists and certainly Francoism, though obviously Farage hasn't killed anyone. Alan Sked who was the founder of UKIP says Farage is a racist. I am not aware Farage has attempted to deny it. The Brexit Party used fake news/propaganda to promote it's ideas and drive division. It was very much a form of British Nationalism with an undercurrent of racism with a few fig leaves to cover up the accusation. I would call them crypto-fascists
    I do not accept that the Brexit Party is a Fascist Party and I would not have voted for it if I did.

    I think the Brexit Party, at the time of 2019, was an empty void protest party. Their claims, their party political broadcasts etc were entirely of a "send a message" sort and not racist or fascist. If there was anything racist there I wouldn't have voted for it.

    I voted for it despite Farage, but since the Tories were also led by an authoritarian xenophobe that was a miserable draw as far as that was concerned. So it purely came down to more of the same, or a protest, and I went for the protest.

    May is no better than Farage.
    Mate that's fine but as AA Gill said of people who watch TOWIE or any of those shows, there isn't a button to press to show that you're watching it ironically. It adds to audience numbers and lo, the series is renewed for another season.

    You gave Farage what he craves most, by voting for his party you gave him political legitimacy and influence. You can't do that and then say but I don't like the other stuff. The horse has bolted.
    I got him kicked out of the European Parliament and so humiliated then electorally that he didn't even bother standing in the 2019 General Election, and didn't bother standing candidates against Tories once the Tory Party was rehabiliated.

    Farage has been destroyed electorally. Job done.
    Once the Tory Party was rehabilitated?

    Once the Tory Party morphed into the Brexit Party, is what you mean. That's why Farage didn't stand against them at GE19. He knew they'd nicked all his Hard Leaver Xenophobe vote.
    Theresa May was the xenophobe, not Boris.

    Worth noting that Boris dropped Theresa May/David Cameron's pledge to bring immigration down to the tens of thousands.
    But you said Farage decided not to stand against the Tories because they'd "rehabilitated".

    If you meant rehabilitated away from xenophobia - which it seems you did - why on earth would that cause Farage (who you and I both consider to be a xenophobe) to give them a free pass?

    See the logic fail?

    You trip yourself up all the time on this one because you aren't telling the truth about it.
    No I don't see the logic fail.

    Theresa May and Nigel Farage are two sides of the same coin. Authoritarian xenophobes. Both saw the Brexit vote simply through the prism of xenophobia and immigration. Theresa May reacted to the Brexit vote by doubling down on her xenophobia.

    But the UK is not xenophobic. The country is not racist. Which is why neither Farage nor May have ended up being that popular in reality.

    The country didn't want doubling down in xenophobia which is all Nigel's May offered. The country wanted its vote in 2016 respecting, but in a friendly manner. May didn't offer that, Farage didn't offer that. Boris did. That's why Boris won in 2016, its why he won in 2019. Its why the voters of the country ran a mile from Farage once there was a rational alternative instead of May's xenophobia.

    Farage didn't give the Tories a free pass, he lost support because his hardcore xenophobes are not who voted for him in the Spring. It was sane, normal, mainstream people rejecting May and her closed-minded, bigoted, empty citizens of nowhere authoritarian xenophobia. Farage gave up as he knew the game was up.
    Look, it's utterly ludicrous to say that the May to Johnson transition represented the Tory Party shedding its xenophobia. It didn't. It represented the victory of the hard brexiters and the remake of the party in their image. And the image of hard brexiters is decidedly NOT zero tolerance of xenophobia. Kenneth Clarke out. Andrew Bridgen in. C'mon.

    Please stop posting illogical convoluted nonsense. It's totally clear what the game is. Your story about your voting record is horseshit. So you're dreaming up an alternative fantasy world that would somehow explain it.

    I'll get my list out again if you carry on. Publish the whole thing and nobody wants that.
    "Andrew Bridgen in" - Andrew Bridgen has been an MP since 2010 and a backbencher the entire time. In what way did he come in, in 2019?

    You may think that there's nothing xenophobic about the Windrush Scandal, the Hostile Environment and sending vans to minority areas saying "GO HOME" but if so you and I have different standards.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 22,766
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    Mexicanpete said:
    » show previous quotes
    Did he enter politics?

    My interpretation was that he felt, poor children should get a nutritious meal each day during the school holidays. Johnson did not agree... initially, and this is where the hostility arose.

    If his campaign had been to look after stray dogs during the pandemic, Carrie would have been on board, and all would have been fine.
    To me Marcus Rashford is a very, very rich young man who has not forgotten what it was like to be poor and even hungry. Good for him. So many of our leading footballers are prima donnas who have forgotten what any aspect of real life is like. His campaign to have free school meals for kids out of school seemed to me to be well judged and reasonable. There are a lot of reasons why extra benefits might not result in extra meals for kids and this cuts through to what we want to achieve. Kids with full bellies. His campaign was also very skilfully and professionally managed which kept it measured and broadly non party political. That was smart and improved its effectiveness. He was also smart enough not to rub Boris's face in it.

    Does any of this make him exempt from a look by the likes of the Spectator? Of course not, its a free country. But I for one will be slow to jump on any bandwagon targeted at a remarkable young man who seems to genuinely care when he has no need to.

    I just wish he would score more goals for United.

    +1

    Except I don't give a shit about Utd. I just wish that pen had gone in. 4 inches. God.

    😪
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885
    edited July 21
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
    Actually.... that's not where Germany's vaccine hesitancy is coming from. In the granola West, vaccination rates are in the 80+% range of adults already and continue to rise (albeit more slowly than before) - basically they look like the Netherlands or Belgium.

    In the old industrial areas of the East, it's a different story: Saxony and Thuringia are only in the high 50s as a percent of adults who've got at least one jab.

    (The exception is Bavaria, which is in the West, but has something like only 65% of adults with at least one jab.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    Iceland is ahead of the UK for first doses per person, albeit they're a small homogenous nation.

    Belgium and the Netherlands are comfortably into the 80s as a percent of adults with at least one jab, so they are unlikely to be much behind the UK when all is done.

    Much more of an issue is Eastern Europe, where the numbers are massively behind the West.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 25,169
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Denmark.

    No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.

    All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
    It's double doses per population that are most important.
    True, but second doses follow on a standard interval after first doses- and Denmark is running at a slightly smaller dose gap than the UK. From here, being overtaken on second doses is just a matter of time.
    To be fair if at the beginning of the vaccination process some one had said that Denmark (and indeed the rest of Scandinavia) was home to fewer anti-vaxxers than the UK I would have thought that it sounded reasonable. I would also have expected it from the Germans, but I’ve been in it too many French pharmacies to think it of the French.
    Germany has far too many "I do yoga and I love nature and vaccines are unnatural" types for that.
    I suspect that one way or another there won't be quite as many of those sort of people around come 2022.
    More likely it will be the AfD voters in the East that are pushing up the daisies, if what @rcs1000 says is correct.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    edited July 21

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”










    *F
    I’m not sure if that was agreeing or disagreeing with me, but I should add that I was using the terms “right” and “wrong” very loosely.
    Fair enough: you got me on a bit of a hobby horse of mine about closed and open questions (which is I think the current terminology).

    Edit: no it isn’t; open questions are ones with no limit to the answers, nothing to do with if the answers are right or wrong.
    I think my basic point was that if a Govt that now that a considered and well thought through course of action (and not one based on knee jerk/instinctive ideological dogma) then initial (or even sometimes sustained) opposition in opinion polls is not a reason to abandon the policy. Because public opinion can be very fickle. The question should basically be how best to go about implementing and selling it. Sometimes it won’t need much selling if the results will speak fairly rapidly for themselves.Clearly obviously electoral cycles will come into it as well. Sometimes it will become necessary (if the chosen course is really long term to seek to co-opt opposition parties as well). Clearly the latter has become more difficult with the increased influence of narrow party memberships over national parties (it’s not much good there being a consensus among the major party leaders if an outsider can grab a party leadership by opposing it),
  • glwglw Posts: 7,570
    Foxy said:

    More likely it will be the AfD voters in the East that are pushing up the daisies, if what @rcs1000 says is correct.

    No I think generally across the world the whole idea of being skeptical about vaccines is about to take a big knock. What vaccines do will be clear to all but the dumbest people.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825


    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?”

    A lot depends on the suppositions and misconceptions which form any opinion on any subject. If you take the view "the majority is always right", that's credible if you are a populist who is happy to go where the public (or public opinion) leads them.

    The point is Government policy then becomes influenced by and driven by the same suppositions and misconceptions which fuel the majority opinion.

    Part of it may be ideological but part is also to put forward the flaws (apparent or otherwise) in the strand of opinion. If I argue taxes should be cut and public spending increased, a lot of people will support me but it is a flawed and imprecise argument since we know it is impossible in perpetuity to cut taxes and increase spending but there are probably people out there who think it is possible or it can be funded by borrowing ad infinitum.

    Those who shout "how's it to be paid for?" don't get a hearing because they are making an argument no one wants to hear because it challenges the illusion or delusion taxes can always be cut and spending always increased.

    There's an argument the quality of information provided to the British electorate on the consequences of voting to Leave the EU was questionable but only because it was predicated on assumptions (and delusions) which could not easily be challenged. We couldn't know what leaving would mean - arguably we still don't.

    It appeared much clearer what the consequences of remaining within the European Union would be - I'd argue we didn't as much vote to leave as not remain.

    The problem was the kind of semi-detached membership acceptable to the British public was simply not on offer from the Europeans. Perhaps there were only two credible positions - fully in (Euro, Schengen etc) or fully out. Anything else was an unsatisfactory muddling compromise.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.

    Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.

    The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?

    Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?

    When the majority of the public are wrong you’ve got two choices. Rip off the bandaid or attempt to nudge them towards the right position. The one thing you shouldn’t do is simply adopt the public’s position.

    Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”










    *F
    I’m not sure if that was agreeing or disagreeing with me, but I should add that I was using the terms “right” and “wrong” very loosely.
    Fair enough: you got me on a bit of a hobby horse of mine about closed and open questions (which is I think the current terminology).

    Edit: no it isn’t; open questions are ones with no limit to the answers, nothing to do with if the answers are right or wrong.
    I think my basic point was that if a Govt that now that a considered and well thought through course of action (and not one based on knee jerk/instinctive ideological dogma) then initial (or even sometimes sustained) opposition in opinion polls is not a reason to abandon the policy. Because public opinion can be very fickle. The question should basically be how best to go about implementing and selling it. Sometimes it won’t need much selling if the results will speak fairly rapidly for themselves.Clearly obviously electoral cycles will come into it as well. Sometimes it will become necessary (if the chosen course is really long term to seek to co-opt opposition parties as well). Clearly the latter has become more difficult with the increased influence of narrow party memberships over national parties (it’s not much good there being a consensus among the major party leaders if an outsider can grab a party leadership by opposing it),
    I’m not sure I can disagree with any of that (apart from the grammar of the first sentence if I want to keep my teacher cred 😀)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,538
    edited July 21

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Vaccination rates in Western Europe are coming in at around 50% of the population. The UK is a bit ahead but probably similar in overall effectiveness, given more and more recent Pfizer doses in the EU. Also everyone targeted their most vulnerable population first. The UK early advantage did show up in death rates in March to May as the EU went into a shoulder while the UK went straight down from the peak, but that advantage has played out now. The EU peak was lower than the UK one anyway.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK cases by specimen date scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    England PCR positivity

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK vaccinations

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    edited July 21

    The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.

    A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.

    And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?

    Germany and Italy are plateauing at a level well below the UK. France is still vaccinating at a good rate but they are behind Germany and Italy at the moment.
    Tend to agree on the 'brave' comment.

    I don't think we get to call that until we have the history of the interplay between the various Eu-27 vax rollouts and he delta wave / exit wave. We will know more in mid-autumn, then by Christmas, but it will be very varied across the EU-27.

    On fully vaxed (the important one) EU average trend is still about 6-8 weeks to reach current UK level by the look of it. Plenty of leaders and laggers to give everyone mud to sling, including UVDL and EuCo depending which EU members they need to demonise each week for self-preservation reasons.

    The Brussels' media one dose = vaccinated trackers may be a problem, but so are many other things.

    Having had a go at vanished-up-their-own-backside lefty-luvvies today, I'd also say that the current Govt have made a total unforced-error Horlicks of the nurse's pay rise.

    If they had said 3% or inflation plus a bit, both plus a bonus, at the time, the debate and perhaps the issue would be over.

    Listening to the convener of "Nurses United UK" (which afaics is another medical sounding political ginger group, like Every Doctor), all they seem to be arguing about NHS privatisation and low applications (which I think is untrue, based on when I last checked). Though there is a real retention issue.

    Of course, ATB @Foxy .
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,870

    UK cases by specimen date

    image

    Did Birmingham go so high it broke your conditional formatting in some way?!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    UK R

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  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    stodge said:


    Thinking that people are wrong because they have different priorities to you is a very dangerous position to adopt: it means you have given up on democracy. Politics is not usually a mathematical exercise where there are right and wrong answers (if I were cynical here I would say none of the answers are right, more optimistically which ones are right depends on your priorities).

    One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?”

    A lot depends on the suppositions and misconceptions which form any opinion on any subject. If you take the view "the majority is always right", that's credible if you are a populist who is happy to go where the public (or public opinion) leads them.

    The point is Government policy then becomes influenced by and driven by the same suppositions and misconceptions which fuel the majority opinion.

    Part of it may be ideological but part is also to put forward the flaws (apparent or otherwise) in the strand of opinion. If I argue taxes should be cut and public spending increased, a lot of people will support me but it is a flawed and imprecise argument since we know it is impossible in perpetuity to cut taxes and increase spending but there are probably people out there who think it is possible or it can be funded by borrowing ad infinitum.

    Those who shout "how's it to be paid for?" don't get a hearing because they are making an argument no one wants to hear because it challenges the illusion or delusion taxes can always be cut and spending always increased.

    There's an argument the quality of information provided to the British electorate on the consequences of voting to Leave the EU was questionable but only because it was predicated on assumptions (and delusions) which could not easily be challenged. We couldn't know what leaving would mean - arguably we still don't.

    It appeared much clearer what the consequences of remaining within the European Union would be - I'd argue we didn't as much vote to leave as not remain.

    The problem was the kind of semi-detached membership acceptable to the British public was simply not on offer from the Europeans. Perhaps there were only two credible positions - fully in (Euro, Schengen etc) or fully out. Anything else was an unsatisfactory muddling compromise.
    Ultimately we never have perfect information on which to vote: either we accept that democracy is the “least worst” system available or we try to find a better system with enlightened philosopher-kings as per Plato’s Republic.

    Trouble is, who gets to pick the kings?

    Anyone who has listened to the Hitchhikers’ Guide knows where that leads.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    Age related data

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825
    edited July 21
    The latest Forsa poll from Germany (Fieldwork 13/7 - 19/7):

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-2)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19%
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 12%
    AfD-ID: 10% (+1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    Changes from last poll.

    The end of the fieldwork coincides with the severe floods in Nord Rhiein Westfalen and other parts of western Germany.

    An earlier Allensbach poll (Fieldwork 3/7 - 14/7) had the Union on 31.5% and the Greens on 18.5% so it may be we are starting to see some political impact from the floods but time will tell. The SPD seems to have turned a corner but coalition forming difficult on those numbers.

    Here's the latest INSA poll (Fieldwork 16/7- 19/7)

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (+1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18% (+1)
    SPD-S&D: 16.5% (-0.5)
    FDP-RE: 12% (-0.5)
    AfD-ID: 11.5% (+0.5)
    LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)

    Changes from last poll.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    Regional case rate change

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035

    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
    It's instant herd immunity in crowded venues.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,870
    edited July 21
    I've only just realised the whole "let's move the graphics slowly up the sides of the screen" as the number of balls and runs increases in the Hundred. It's, um, novel.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,305
    For my tea, I have had a homemade pizza* followed by a Chorley Cake.

    It then dawned on me that a Chorley Cake would make a perfect base for a mini pizza.



    *Chorizo, cheddar and sun dried tomato. No fruit.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    edited July 21
    Pulpstar said:

    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
    It's instant herd immunity in crowded venues.
    Whatever else one thinks of Macron, his past statements on vaccines, or even the questions on vaxports (which I think are a different issue in U.K. to France - we are far more likely to build a whole massive digital infrastructure behind them), I was very impressed by the simple way he sold them today with just a single, powerful sentence, that probably sums up ultimately what millions are thinking.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    MattW said:

    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.


    It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    glw said:

    Foxy said:

    More likely it will be the AfD voters in the East that are pushing up the daisies, if what @rcs1000 says is correct.

    No I think generally across the world the whole idea of being skeptical about vaccines is about to take a big knock. What vaccines do will be clear to all but the dumbest people.
    All vaccines or just some of them? The result or the process? It's not intelligence or absence of stupidity that has led most of the vaccinated to get vaccinated. It's obedience, fear, following official advice and the crowd, getting "nudged", carrots and sticks and talking points. That doesn't mean their decisions were wrong. Not at all. It's possible for a person do the right thing who has given it hardly any intelligent thought at all and who is mostly as thick as two short planks. As for those who are highly intelligent in most things, they're often stupid in some things too. This all applies among the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated.

    Recommended reading on stupidity: Carlo Cipolla.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026

    For my tea, I have had a homemade pizza* followed by a Chorley Cake.

    It then dawned on me that a Chorley Cake would make a perfect base for a mini pizza.



    *Chorizo, cheddar and sun dried tomato. No fruit.

    No fruit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,035
    edited July 21
    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
    It's instant herd immunity in crowded venues.
    Whatever else one thinks of Macron, his past statements on vaccines, or even the questions on vaxports (which I think are a different issue in U.K. to France - we are far more likely to build a whole massive digital infrastructure behind them), I was very impressed by the simple way he sold them today with just a single, powerful sentence, that probably sums up ultimately what millions are thinking.
    The infrastructure is already built for our vaxports. They're out, it's the NHS backend. And yes after a bit of a faulty (AZ) start, I think Macron has done well on vaccines/vaxports in France.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,825

    <
    Ultimately we never have perfect information on which to vote: either we accept that democracy is the “least worst” system available or we try to find a better system with enlightened philosopher-kings as per Plato’s Republic.

    Trouble is, who gets to pick the kings?

    Anyone who has listened to the Hitchhikers’ Guide knows where that leads.

    Indeed - democracy is the "least worst" system on offer.

    That doesn't mean we should undermine or weaken it by not accepting the challenges it offers in terms of improving the governance of our country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    MattW said:

    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.


    It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
    Will there be a 95% tax on those GPs who have been AWOL during the pandemic to pay for it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,518
    edited July 21

    For my tea, I have had a homemade pizza* followed by a Chorley Cake.

    It then dawned on me that a Chorley Cake would make a perfect base for a mini pizza.

    *Chorizo, cheddar and sun dried tomato. No fruit.

    Er... is the tomato not a fruit?

    Edit: Chorley cake as a base for a pizza?!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,026
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.


    It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
    Will there be a 95% tax on those GPs who have been AWOL during the pandemic to pay for it?
    Hi @ydoethur: have you broken up yet?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.


    It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
    Will there be a 95% tax on those GPs who have been AWOL during the pandemic to pay for it?
    I suggest a variation on the 1,545,565% tax on Tuscan Villas owned by Guardian columnists, that I once suggested to pay off the national debt....
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,700
    edited July 21
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I may even write again to Mr Anderson (it's like The Matix), since he gave me a straight-down-the-line Govt line when I wrote about the nurses pay rise last time.


    It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
    Will there be a 95% tax on those GPs who have been AWOL during the pandemic to pay for it?
    I know it’s popular to have a go at GPs but (and i’m declaring a family interest) they always get a lot of stick for what is often wildly differing levels of performance. Just like teachers. The ones who have really sat a lot of Covid out (ironically often through no desire or fault of their own) are all the specialists in hospitals etc who have literally not been allowed to take referrals for their mountains of patients. And if the GPS aren’t allowed to make referrals...?

    I suppose the nurses in the South west are finally having to earn their keep as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,817
    Pulpstar said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
    It's instant herd immunity in crowded venues.
    Whatever else one thinks of Macron, his past statements on vaccines, or even the questions on vaxports (which I think are a different issue in U.K. to France - we are far more likely to build a whole massive digital infrastructure behind them), I was very impressed by the simple way he sold them today with just a single, powerful sentence, that probably sums up ultimately what millions are thinking.
    The infrastructure is already built for our vaxports. They're out, it's the NHS backend. And yes after a bit of a faulty (AZ) start, I think Macron has done well on vaccines/vaxports in France.
    Am I the only one who thinks that 'vaxports' sounds like a futuristic form of transportation?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The public haven't had it explained why it is a bad idea. It is a national digital id trojan horse. We will never be rid of it and it will be expanded.

    Not that Starmer would be up to that.
    It's instant herd immunity in crowded venues.
    Whatever else one thinks of Macron, his past statements on vaccines, or even the questions on vaxports (which I think are a different issue in U.K. to France - we are far more likely to build a whole massive digital infrastructure behind them), I was very impressed by the simple way he sold them today with just a single, powerful sentence, that probably sums up ultimately what millions are thinking.
    Can you quote it.

    I think the one Scott tweeted was not actually in his speech.
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