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Two very different General Election outcomes from this week’s polls – politicalbetting.com
Two very different General Election outcomes from this week’s polls – politicalbetting.com
For the projections, I have used Martin Baxter’s longstanding seat calculator. As can be seen the polling and the seat projections are in separate universes and there is no way you can rationalise it except that Survation’s fieldwork was four days later a period that was pretty bad for BoJo.
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@Reuters
· 34m
UK food supply chains ‘on the edge of failing', meat industry says http://reut.rs/3kGVmIf
I am pretty sure they will be called back for some kind of emergency debate given the chaos that is looming over covid this summer.
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
8m
Attention @UKLabour
. This is what a backbone looks like.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1417894296192225282
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57922712
3% pay rise for the NHS.
A brave comment considering the possibility of how European countries may be hammered by Delta.
And which European countries are you expecting to surpass the UK on vaccinations ?
Who knows what they're doing? They probably don't know what they're doing themselves.
https://twitter.com/TOABBOfficial/status/1415963774167797762
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_423_COVID-19.pdf
Covid is far from finished with Europe.
Whatever Mike thinks.
https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1417868926906679296?s=19
Forensic innit
No seriously- if OWID is to be believed, the Danes have just overtaken the UK in terms of first doses per population.
All that and still zero excess deaths. One doesn't wish to bring the Covid Hubris Vengance on them, but they've had a good pandemic.
I cannot see me watching much more of this visual rubbish.
Just because a majority of the public think something is right doesn't make it right. I seem to recall Margaret Thatcher not being too bothered what majority opinion was as she would go out and argue her case.
Boris Johnson, who clearly lacks her political and intellectual prowess, hasn't seen a majority yet he doesn't want to shamelessly follow. Call that weak leadership or populism or opportunism if you wish but it's a politically successful strategy in the short to medium term.
The problem comes if and when the public view is so far removed from what the Government wants or would like - most people, for example, would support tax cuts and more money on public services. That's not a credible long term policy as we all know but at what point and in what way do you tell the electorate there's no more honey for tea?
Or do you leave it for your successors to sort out the mess?
You're probably right.
Not that Starmer would be up to that.
On a side point I object to the name “Manchester Originals”. I’m going to insist on calling them Ordinary (you’ve probably got to be from southwest London to get that...)
Maybe it's just because the crowd at the T20 yesterday was so much more excited about things.
Here's a scenario - all of Europe is hit by Delta, disastrously so in Eastern Europe in the autumn and winter but even Western and Mediterranean Europe suffers badly. With intermittent lockdowns and media reports of hospitals being overwhelmed.
These problems continue throughout 2022 in much of Europe.
But the UK comes through much better because of the quicker vaccination, the higher vaccination numbers and getting Delta during the summer.
What then is the narrative of how the UK government has handled Delta ?
Mexicanpete said:
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Did he enter politics?
My interpretation was that he felt, poor children should get a nutritious meal each day during the school holidays. Johnson did not agree... initially, and this is where the hostility arose.
If his campaign had been to look after stray dogs during the pandemic, Carrie would have been on board, and all would have been fine.
To me Marcus Rashford is a very, very rich young man who has not forgotten what it was like to be poor and even hungry. Good for him. So many of our leading footballers are prima donnas who have forgotten what any aspect of real life is like. His campaign to have free school meals for kids out of school seemed to me to be well judged and reasonable. There are a lot of reasons why extra benefits might not result in extra meals for kids and this cuts through to what we want to achieve. Kids with full bellies. His campaign was also very skilfully and professionally managed which kept it measured and broadly non party political. That was smart and improved its effectiveness. He was also smart enough not to rub Boris's face in it.
Does any of this make him exempt from a look by the likes of the Spectator? Of course not, its a free country. But I for one will be slow to jump on any bandwagon targeted at a remarkable young man who seems to genuinely care when he has no need to.
I just wish he would score more goals for United.
https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1417697815661326344
GOP city council member in Alabama says "do we have a house n****r in here?" to a Black woman on the council.
Many Govts also I think significantly underestimate the level of the population that are prepared to be led and (perhaps after some initial resistance) are perfectable happy to change their views to accommodate the Govt’s position. As long as the Govt is prepared to sell it.
They’ve oversold it as being something exciting in a different way. Ultimately most of the differences are silly gimmicks. Umpires calling “five”. Really?
I wonder how long it will be before they realise that “runs per over” is actually an easier to understand concept than “x runs in y balls”. For me, runs per ball only really makes sense in a world where needing a run a ball is a benchmark. That was probably the case in ODIs about 15-20 years ago. It’s never been the case in shorter formats. So actually it’s much easier to use (required) runs per over as a way of assessing the match situation.
One of the problems after the Brexit vote was the number of people who acted as if those who had voted Leave had got the wrong answer and should be made to take the test again, rather than realising it was a question more like “do you want to marry this person?” than “what is the capital of France?*”
*F
My hospital is on OPEL4 (the highest level) with 17 ambulances unable to unload on the Emergency Dept forecourt this evening. Most isn't covid, but pressure is extreme. All at the time that leave is being taken, juniors are rotating (4th August is when the newly qualified take up posts) and numbers of staff are isolating.
Edit: no it isn’t; open questions are ones with no limit to the answers, nothing to do with if the answers are right or wrong.
You may think that there's nothing xenophobic about the Windrush Scandal, the Hostile Environment and sending vans to minority areas saying "GO HOME" but if so you and I have different standards.
Except I don't give a shit about Utd. I just wish that pen had gone in. 4 inches. God.
😪
In the old industrial areas of the East, it's a different story: Saxony and Thuringia are only in the high 50s as a percent of adults who've got at least one jab.
(The exception is Bavaria, which is in the West, but has something like only 65% of adults with at least one jab.)
Belgium and the Netherlands are comfortably into the 80s as a percent of adults with at least one jab, so they are unlikely to be much behind the UK when all is done.
Much more of an issue is Eastern Europe, where the numbers are massively behind the West.
The point is Government policy then becomes influenced by and driven by the same suppositions and misconceptions which fuel the majority opinion.
Part of it may be ideological but part is also to put forward the flaws (apparent or otherwise) in the strand of opinion. If I argue taxes should be cut and public spending increased, a lot of people will support me but it is a flawed and imprecise argument since we know it is impossible in perpetuity to cut taxes and increase spending but there are probably people out there who think it is possible or it can be funded by borrowing ad infinitum.
Those who shout "how's it to be paid for?" don't get a hearing because they are making an argument no one wants to hear because it challenges the illusion or delusion taxes can always be cut and spending always increased.
There's an argument the quality of information provided to the British electorate on the consequences of voting to Leave the EU was questionable but only because it was predicated on assumptions (and delusions) which could not easily be challenged. We couldn't know what leaving would mean - arguably we still don't.
It appeared much clearer what the consequences of remaining within the European Union would be - I'd argue we didn't as much vote to leave as not remain.
The problem was the kind of semi-detached membership acceptable to the British public was simply not on offer from the Europeans. Perhaps there were only two credible positions - fully in (Euro, Schengen etc) or fully out. Anything else was an unsatisfactory muddling compromise.
I don't think we get to call that until we have the history of the interplay between the various Eu-27 vax rollouts and he delta wave / exit wave. We will know more in mid-autumn, then by Christmas, but it will be very varied across the EU-27.
On fully vaxed (the important one) EU average trend is still about 6-8 weeks to reach current UK level by the look of it. Plenty of leaders and laggers to give everyone mud to sling, including UVDL and EuCo depending which EU members they need to demonise each week for self-preservation reasons.
The Brussels' media one dose = vaccinated trackers may be a problem, but so are many other things.
Having had a go at vanished-up-their-own-backside lefty-luvvies today, I'd also say that the current Govt have made a total unforced-error Horlicks of the nurse's pay rise.
If they had said 3% or inflation plus a bit, both plus a bonus, at the time, the debate and perhaps the issue would be over.
Listening to the convener of "Nurses United UK" (which afaics is another medical sounding political ginger group, like Every Doctor), all they seem to be arguing about NHS privatisation and low applications (which I think is untrue, based on when I last checked). Though there is a real retention issue.
Of course, ATB @Foxy .
Trouble is, who gets to pick the kings?
Anyone who has listened to the Hitchhikers’ Guide knows where that leads.
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-2)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19%
SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
FDP-RE: 12%
AfD-ID: 10% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 7%
Changes from last poll.
The end of the fieldwork coincides with the severe floods in Nord Rhiein Westfalen and other parts of western Germany.
An earlier Allensbach poll (Fieldwork 3/7 - 14/7) had the Union on 31.5% and the Greens on 18.5% so it may be we are starting to see some political impact from the floods but time will tell. The SPD seems to have turned a corner but coalition forming difficult on those numbers.
Here's the latest INSA poll (Fieldwork 16/7- 19/7)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16.5% (-0.5)
FDP-RE: 12% (-0.5)
AfD-ID: 11.5% (+0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)
Changes from last poll.
It then dawned on me that a Chorley Cake would make a perfect base for a mini pizza.
*Chorizo, cheddar and sun dried tomato. No fruit.
It was suggested on here yesterday (by @bigjohnowls i think) that SKS had asked for 2.1%: anyone know if that was right?
Recommended reading on stupidity: Carlo Cipolla.
That doesn't mean we should undermine or weaken it by not accepting the challenges it offers in terms of improving the governance of our country.
Edit: Chorley cake as a base for a pizza?!
I suppose the nurses in the South west are finally having to earn their keep as well.
I think the one Scott tweeted was not actually in his speech.