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Starmer starting to look a good bet as an 18% chance to be next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    Wow, 34% of 18-34 year olds have deleted the Covid test and trace app according to Savanta ComRes

    Based on people I know, plenty more have got it but have turned off the contact tracing function.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    This thread has been closed, for another new one saying Tories are doing shit.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2021
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Heartbreaking comments from the head of WaterAid regarding the cut to foreign aid .

    Those who voted like lapdogs in the Tory party for this cut are beneath contempt . And I don’t give a flying fuck if polls show the public support this .

    Most have no idea of what these cuts mean and have been fed garbage by the right wing press .

    And yet WaterAid have plenty of money to spunk of advertising on Sky all the time.

    Almost like this has now become a money making industry and like all such money making industry it can and should raise its funds from the private sector.

    If there's a good program worth paying for, let the Bill Gates Foundation pay for it. Or anyone who wants to pay £5 per month or whatever it is they're begging for on Sky all the time. No need to come from taxes.
    Is this the best you can do to defend these cuts . Children are going to die , does it bother you ?
    No need to be emotive with fake language like that.

    The cuts are absolutely the right thing to do. No it doesn't bother me. It bothers me that my taxes are going on an industry that thinks its appropriate to pay millions to David Miliband in order for the UK to fund aid at a level the EU and USA don't.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,523
    IF anyone wants something off-topic for a debate, this is the development I was talking about.

    IN many ways a good plan, with lots of open space against the country park with lake (LHS), and up against the school (top). But they have really upped the density, and taken it from 84 to 110 houses in the latest application which has lost all the detached houses. Steepish site, with several retaining walls - sloping down to the Lake. 4 hectares.





  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Heartbreaking comments from the head of WaterAid regarding the cut to foreign aid .

    Those who voted like lapdogs in the Tory party for this cut are beneath contempt . And I don’t give a flying fuck if polls show the public support this .

    Most have no idea of what these cuts mean and have been fed garbage by the right wing press .

    And yet WaterAid have plenty of money to spunk of advertising on Sky all the time.

    Almost like this has now become a money making industry and like all such money making industry it can and should raise its funds from the private sector.

    If there's a good program worth paying for, let the Bill Gates Foundation pay for it. Or anyone who wants to pay £5 per month or whatever it is they're begging for on Sky all the time. No need to come from taxes.
    Is this the best you can do to defend these cuts . Children are going to die , does it bother you ?
    No need to be emotive with fake language like that.

    The cuts are absolutely the right thing to do. No it doesn't bother me. It bothers me that my taxes are going on an industry that thinks its appropriate to pay millions to David Miliband in order for the UK to fund aid at a level the EU and USA don't.
    Before you edited this, your first sentence was “Children die.”
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,426
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This poll on foreign aid may surprise some politicians

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1401927434333835266?s=19

    No surprise.
    Britons are curtain-twitching, Mail-reading, spite-mongers. Who hate freedom (especially other people’s).
    Do you not concede that this poll supports the reduction in foreign aid across all political groups and ages
    I don’t believe in running the country according to whatever lowest-denominator impulses can be discerned from polling.

    Sad that this is another example of your piously refusing to part with a smidgeon of your triple-locked wealth.
    A bit ad hom. , but agreed.
    I am still awaiting an apology as I have always supported cancelling the triple lock, though both my wife and I are pensioners

    I have said so on here on many occasions

    In addition I support the following in case there is any doubt

    The £20 Universal credit uplift made permanent

    100% behind Marcus Rashford's campaign for free school meals

    And I am not alone with conservative mps also supporting these three issues
    I wasn't agreeing with the ad hominem, Big_G.
    But the cut it aid is simply wrong, IMO.
    I don't think there is anything magical about 0.5 vs 0.7, but I think it is a small amount in the big picture and the main professed reasoning behind cutting it doesn't stack up so it should be maintained given whilst things are not spent perfectly we can be pretty sure there will be some quite serious netagative effects..
    The fact that the Covid response has blown out budget wide open and left a massive deficit that needs closing back down doesn't stack up?
    There are many other ways they could close the deficit, ways which would close it much more significantly.

    The level of focus on international aid to help close the deficit as opposed to anything else is what does not stack up for me. That some people have wanted to reduce it for a long time adds to that suspicion.

    Yes, every little helps, but on so many other areas it's magically not an issue but it is for this one? I don't buy that

    That's why while I'm not opposed to the principle the way some others are, it seems like the wrong move for the wrong reasons when we can be sure of pretty immediate effect.
    Since 2010 every area of government expenditure bar two has been subject to rigorous spending reviews and austerity. The only exceptions are the Health and International Aid.

    Healthy for obvious reasons can't be cut. Everything else has already been subject to austerity. By series of elimination that leaves one issue alone where the fat has not been trimmed.

    So if you think there's another area whereby £4bn in expenditure cuts can be made almost overnight then I'd love to hear what it is as an alternative and why it's not been done yet.

    Specifically which anything else are you thinking of instead?
    Big G’s triple lock and all those other pensioner goodies.

    Slash them to the bone; they’re sucking the country dry.
    I think @rcs1000 has pointed out that democracies where the retired can dictate terms at the ballot box tend to end up in a bad way, citing Japan and Italy as examples. (Apologies if I've got this wrong- please send me my infinite Radiohead CD as penance.)

    Whilst the UK isn't fully there yet in theory, it's getting alarmingly close in practice. We have a government elected on the votes of the 60+ that believes in superserving its core vote.

    We already have a Brexit, and a type of Brexit mandated by the retired whilst leaving those of working age to make it work. The popularity of the aid cuts is, like everything else, age-driven.

    This is from a Redfield & Wilton poll last year;

    Within the poll, we further provided the UK public with a list of regions and asked which they would most support the UK providing development funding being direct towards, providing a ‘none of these’ option at the end of the list. Given this list, a significant minority of respondents (35%) stated that they would not support the foreign aid budget being spent at all. This figure included over half of respondents aged 55. Moreover, just 15% of 2019 Labour voters hold the view that the foreign aid budget being spent at all, in stark contrast to the 57% of Conservatives who would support not spending the foreign aid budget at all.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/majority-of-uk-public-believes-uk-spends-too-much-on-overseas-aid/

    Call me a grumpy middle-aged cynic, but this looks like a generation that have spent their working life not really paying enough down towards their retirement who are now frantically looking for things that can be cut from government spending so they can be funded better.

    Excellent pragmatic politics, and most of the West is going to end up dealing with this. But that doesn't stop it sucking.
    Wasn't the age crossover much lower than 60? Around 40 if I remember rightly.
    True, but there's also been a massive shift in the age/voting gradient. I've posted this link before, but until quite recently, the "you get more Conservative as you age" thing was a fairly mild process- now it's massive.

    https://timothylikeszebras.wordpress.com/2019/11/26/the-old-people-are-coming/
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    Thread closed; go home.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,985

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This poll on foreign aid may surprise some politicians

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1401927434333835266?s=19

    No surprise.
    Britons are curtain-twitching, Mail-reading, spite-mongers. Who hate freedom (especially other people’s).
    Do you not concede that this poll supports the reduction in foreign aid across all political groups and ages
    I don’t believe in running the country according to whatever lowest-denominator impulses can be discerned from polling.

    Sad that this is another example of your piously refusing to part with a smidgeon of your triple-locked wealth.
    A bit ad hom. , but agreed.
    I am still awaiting an apology as I have always supported cancelling the triple lock, though both my wife and I are pensioners

    I have said so on here on many occasions

    In addition I support the following in case there is any doubt

    The £20 Universal credit uplift made permanent

    100% behind Marcus Rashford's campaign for free school meals

    And I am not alone with conservative mps also supporting these three issues
    I wasn't agreeing with the ad hominem, Big_G.
    But the cut it aid is simply wrong, IMO.
    I don't think there is anything magical about 0.5 vs 0.7, but I think it is a small amount in the big picture and the main professed reasoning behind cutting it doesn't stack up so it should be maintained given whilst things are not spent perfectly we can be pretty sure there will be some quite serious netagative effects..
    The fact that the Covid response has blown out budget wide open and left a massive deficit that needs closing back down doesn't stack up?
    There are many other ways they could close the deficit, ways which would close it much more significantly.

    The level of focus on international aid to help close the deficit as opposed to anything else is what does not stack up for me. That some people have wanted to reduce it for a long time adds to that suspicion.

    Yes, every little helps, but on so many other areas it's magically not an issue but it is for this one? I don't buy that

    That's why while I'm not opposed to the principle the way some others are, it seems like the wrong move for the wrong reasons when we can be sure of pretty immediate effect.
    Since 2010 every area of government expenditure bar two has been subject to rigorous spending reviews and austerity. The only exceptions are the Health and International Aid.

    Healthy for obvious reasons can't be cut. Everything else has already been subject to austerity. By series of elimination that leaves one issue alone where the fat has not been trimmed.

    So if you think there's another area whereby £4bn in expenditure cuts can be made almost overnight then I'd love to hear what it is as an alternative and why it's not been done yet.

    Specifically which anything else are you thinking of instead?
    Ah hem... pensions, health and international aid.

    The amount the UK Government spends on pensions and health is set by the triple lock and by an ageing population. This means that it's increased from the high 30s as a percent of spending in the 1980s, to over 50% now. Every year it increases, and that means that there will be continued (and permanent) pressure on other parts of the budget.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This poll on foreign aid may surprise some politicians

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1401927434333835266?s=19

    No surprise.
    Britons are curtain-twitching, Mail-reading, spite-mongers. Who hate freedom (especially other people’s).
    Do you not concede that this poll supports the reduction in foreign aid across all political groups and ages
    I don’t believe in running the country according to whatever lowest-denominator impulses can be discerned from polling.

    Sad that this is another example of your piously refusing to part with a smidgeon of your triple-locked wealth.
    A bit ad hom. , but agreed.
    I am still awaiting an apology as I have always supported cancelling the triple lock, though both my wife and I are pensioners

    I have said so on here on many occasions

    In addition I support the following in case there is any doubt

    The £20 Universal credit uplift made permanent

    100% behind Marcus Rashford's campaign for free school meals

    And I am not alone with conservative mps also supporting these three issues
    I wasn't agreeing with the ad hominem, Big_G.
    But the cut it aid is simply wrong, IMO.
    I don't think there is anything magical about 0.5 vs 0.7, but I think it is a small amount in the big picture and the main professed reasoning behind cutting it doesn't stack up so it should be maintained given whilst things are not spent perfectly we can be pretty sure there will be some quite serious netagative effects..
    The fact that the Covid response has blown out budget wide open and left a massive deficit that needs closing back down doesn't stack up?
    There are many other ways they could close the deficit, ways which would close it much more significantly.

    The level of focus on international aid to help close the deficit as opposed to anything else is what does not stack up for me. That some people have wanted to reduce it for a long time adds to that suspicion.

    Yes, every little helps, but on so many other areas it's magically not an issue but it is for this one? I don't buy that

    That's why while I'm not opposed to the principle the way some others are, it seems like the wrong move for the wrong reasons when we can be sure of pretty immediate effect.
    Since 2010 every area of government expenditure bar two has been subject to rigorous spending reviews and austerity. The only exceptions are the Health and International Aid.

    Healthy for obvious reasons can't be cut. Everything else has already been subject to austerity. By series of elimination that leaves one issue alone where the fat has not been trimmed.

    So if you think there's another area whereby £4bn in expenditure cuts can be made almost overnight then I'd love to hear what it is as an alternative and why it's not been done yet.

    Specifically which anything else are you thinking of instead?
    Ah hem... pensions, health and international aid.

    The amount the UK Government spends on pensions and health is set by the triple lock and by an ageing population. This means that it's increased from the high 30s as a percent of spending in the 1980s, to over 50% now. Every year it increases, and that means that there will be continued (and permanent) pressure on other parts of the budget.
    Not only that but the govt faces a corona-shaped black hole in the budget; not quite as bad as was feared last year but still horribly, horribly bad.

    Sunak is a strict fiscal conservative and is busy planning for austerity 2.0 (or is it 3.0) to balance the books.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This poll on foreign aid may surprise some politicians

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1401927434333835266?s=19

    No surprise.
    Britons are curtain-twitching, Mail-reading, spite-mongers. Who hate freedom (especially other people’s).
    Do you not concede that this poll supports the reduction in foreign aid across all political groups and ages
    I don’t believe in running the country according to whatever lowest-denominator impulses can be discerned from polling.

    Sad that this is another example of your piously refusing to part with a smidgeon of your triple-locked wealth.
    A bit ad hom. , but agreed.
    I am still awaiting an apology as I have always supported cancelling the triple lock, though both my wife and I are pensioners

    I have said so on here on many occasions

    In addition I support the following in case there is any doubt

    The £20 Universal credit uplift made permanent

    100% behind Marcus Rashford's campaign for free school meals

    And I am not alone with conservative mps also supporting these three issues
    I wasn't agreeing with the ad hominem, Big_G.
    But the cut it aid is simply wrong, IMO.
    I don't think there is anything magical about 0.5 vs 0.7, but I think it is a small amount in the big picture and the main professed reasoning behind cutting it doesn't stack up so it should be maintained given whilst things are not spent perfectly we can be pretty sure there will be some quite serious netagative effects..
    The fact that the Covid response has blown out budget wide open and left a massive deficit that needs closing back down doesn't stack up?
    There are many other ways they could close the deficit, ways which would close it much more significantly.

    The level of focus on international aid to help close the deficit as opposed to anything else is what does not stack up for me. That some people have wanted to reduce it for a long time adds to that suspicion.

    Yes, every little helps, but on so many other areas it's magically not an issue but it is for this one? I don't buy that

    That's why while I'm not opposed to the principle the way some others are, it seems like the wrong move for the wrong reasons when we can be sure of pretty immediate effect.
    Since 2010 every area of government expenditure bar two has been subject to rigorous spending reviews and austerity. The only exceptions are the Health and International Aid.

    Healthy for obvious reasons can't be cut. Everything else has already been subject to austerity. By series of elimination that leaves one issue alone where the fat has not been trimmed.

    So if you think there's another area whereby £4bn in expenditure cuts can be made almost overnight then I'd love to hear what it is as an alternative and why it's not been done yet.

    Specifically which anything else are you thinking of instead?
    Big G’s triple lock and all those other pensioner goodies.

    Slash them to the bone; they’re sucking the country dry.
    Why do you hate pensioners

    What have they done to you
    I definitely think age is right up there with class and race as drivers of British politics nowadays which feels unusual. The debate on here this evening feels way too personal against BigG though.

    I agree that the cohort of older people have put their own interests ahead of those younger than them, but think a lot of that is down to them misunderstanding the challenges the young face rather than selfishness. (To be clear, that is not directed at you BigG, its a generalisation which will be true of some, and not others.)
    Not necessarily consciously. There have been two colossal changes that have differentially affected generations and geographical areas. First a huge ratchet in house prices due to several factors (increased mortgage multiples particularly for couples, immigration, planning restrictions, foreign investment, BTL) at its most extreme in the SE. Second the decline of private sector pensions accelerated by the effects of the 2008 crisis. Things weren't a bed of roses though when I started out with much higher levels of unemployment. Pensioners are not homogenous and neither are the young so twitter style sniping is not going to get us very far.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,073
    She’ll be kicking the arses of her SCon colleagues who sat on them presumably.
    Or not.

    https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonpc/status/1414972022577324036?s=21
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    MaxPB said:

    Can I have a discount on my tuition fees if the old lot are going to have their pensions increased by 7%

    No, your wages will be spunked on buying votes from old farts and you'll like it.
    Hope you're well Max, know we haven't agreed on much of late but glad we can find agreement here
This discussion has been closed.