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Starmer starting to look a good bet as an 18% chance to be next PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 13 in General
imageStarmer starting to look a good bet as an 18% chance to be next PM – politicalbetting.com

Next Monday is going to be another COVID milestone that has become increasingly less significant the closer we get. What was promised by the PM as “freedom day” is going to end up as a massive gamble if the controls are lifted and made voluntary. The polling on this doesn’t look good and if if the infection numbers soar as predicted the PM will struggle to avoid the blame.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    First unlike Starmer at the next election.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,823
    edited July 13
    2nd if their lucky under useless SKS
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 13
    What is clear from yesterday, is the government advisors don't think covid is going anywhere. There will be a summer wave, then a winter covod / flu crisis, etc.

    We are been setup for years of this. And of course that will be part of politics as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13
    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,006

    What is clear from yesterday, is the government advisors don't think covid isn't going anywhere. There will be a summer wave, then a winter covod / flu crisis, etc.

    We are been setup for years of this. And of course that will be part of politics as well.

    Unfortunately you are correct. We need to dig in for the (very) long haul.

    The right balance needs to be struck between freedom and caution. Personal responsibility is part of that, but there is a real risk that the Government will need to reintroduce restrictions at some point in time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    The only Labour figure who would even have a chance of winning a majority anytime soon is Burnham but he is not even an MP and has said he will not stand for Parliament again before the next general election.

    Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,823

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    Andy Burnham would stand a chance IMO
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,006

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    LAB aren't ready yet. This is demonstrated by having people like Angela Rayner in senior positions. After GE2023/2024 Keir will be moved on, LAB might learn what they need to do and then they will probably win GE2028/2029.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    HYUFD said:

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    The only Labour figure who would even have a chance of winning a majority anytime soon is Burnham but he is not even an MP and has said he will not stand for Parliament again before the next general election.

    Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
    You can't say that for certain. The problem is that most people don't have the name recognition until they're elected leader so its hard to tell until they are.

    Starmer has been tried and found wanting.

    Cameron was almost unheard of a year before he became leader and he came through and nearly got a majority.

    Labour might have a Cameron on their benches that we don't know about yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13

    HYUFD said:

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    The only Labour figure who would even have a chance of winning a majority anytime soon is Burnham but he is not even an MP and has said he will not stand for Parliament again before the next general election.

    Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
    You can't say that for certain. The problem is that most people don't have the name recognition until they're elected leader so its hard to tell until they are.

    Starmer has been tried and found wanting.

    Cameron was almost unheard of a year before he became leader and he came through and nearly got a majority.

    Labour might have a Cameron on their benches that we don't know about yet.
    Burnham has high name recognition already.

    Cameron of course failed to win a majority in 2010, he was no Blair 1997.

    Starmer is also no Blair but he could be a Cameron
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    BREAKING: Indonesia reports 47,899 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, and 864 new deaths
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    The only Labour figure who would even have a chance of winning a majority anytime soon is Burnham but he is not even an MP and has said he will not stand for Parliament again before the next general election.

    Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
    You can't say that for certain. The problem is that most people don't have the name recognition until they're elected leader so its hard to tell until they are.

    Starmer has been tried and found wanting.

    Cameron was almost unheard of a year before he became leader and he came through and nearly got a majority.

    Labour might have a Cameron on their benches that we don't know about yet.
    Burnham has high name recognition already.

    Cameron of course failed to win a majority in 2010, he was no Blair 1997.

    Starmer is also no Blair but he could be a Cameron
    That was my point that Burnham has the name recognition. Others on the Labour benches don't. Cameron himself wasn't even a Shadow Minister until after the leadership contest began so his equivalent today could even be, like Cameron was, a backbencher.

    Starmer is no Cameron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    edited July 13
    The best sport tournament in the world is of course on this week with the Open.It will be nice to see well behaved crowds and no cheating as a change from the football .

    My tip is bet365 on the Region of the winner .Their book is
    European evens (includes GB and Ireland)
    USA 5/4
    Rest of the World 6/1

    Now you can bet on any of these three options and have an interesting bet to the end given the number of runners each effectively backs but i have done a european to win the Claret Jug at evens as I think the Open always suits europeans more .Lowry might even retain his title
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926
    Diane Abbott just used the N word on Politics Live. Feel for Jo Coburn...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    The only Labour figure who would even have a chance of winning a majority anytime soon is Burnham but he is not even an MP and has said he will not stand for Parliament again before the next general election.

    Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
    You can't say that for certain. The problem is that most people don't have the name recognition until they're elected leader so its hard to tell until they are.

    Starmer has been tried and found wanting.

    Cameron was almost unheard of a year before he became leader and he came through and nearly got a majority.

    Labour might have a Cameron on their benches that we don't know about yet.
    Burnham has high name recognition already.

    Cameron of course failed to win a majority in 2010, he was no Blair 1997.

    Starmer is also no Blair but he could be a Cameron
    That was my point that Burnham has the name recognition. Others on the Labour benches don't. Cameron himself wasn't even a Shadow Minister until after the leadership contest began so his equivalent today could even be, like Cameron was, a backbencher.

    Starmer is no Cameron.
    Hypothetical Mori polling before Cameron became leader had the Tories on 36%, he got 36% in 2010.

    Cameron got a lower voteshare for the Tories than Boris or even May in 2010 and 2015, he was no Messiah, certainly on the scale of Blair and the New Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001. He just had fewer negatives than Hague, IDS and Howard. He was a reasonably competent PM but was never loved by voters as early years Blair was.

    There is no reason Starmer could not be a Cameron at all, reasonably competent, few negatives like Corbyn but no great electoral appeal either
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    No, please, keep him right where he is.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    This is because you think in black and white terms rather than two steps ahead.

    If it came down to DUP votes then they're never going to abstain. They'd have a Jerry Maguire moment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    The desperately need to show they can deliver copious amounts of pork for NI. We know Labour won't play that game - they said so, very loudly, in 2017.

    Their price will be several billion more.

    Oh, and that tunnel.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570

    The best sport tournament in the world is of course on this week with the Open.It will be nice to see well behaved crowds and no cheating as a change from the football .

    My tip is bet365 on the Region of the winner .Their book is
    European evens (includes GB and Ireland)
    USA 5/4
    Rest of the World 6/1

    Now you can bet on any of these three options and have an interesting bet to the end given the number of runners each effectively backs but i have done a european to win the Claret Jug at evens as I think the Open always suits europeans more .Lowry might even retain his title

    With respect, I think evens is pretty poor odds for a European win.

    I wish I had a quid for every time I heard a commentator say 'the Americans might not be familiar with these types of conditions' and suddenly there they are, all over the leader board.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,379
    edited July 13

    The best sport tournament in the world is of course on this week with the Open.It will be nice to see well behaved crowds and no cheating as a change from the football .

    My tip is bet365 on the Region of the winner .Their book is
    European evens (includes GB and Ireland)
    USA 5/4
    Rest of the World 6/1

    Now you can bet on any of these three options and have an interesting bet to the end given the number of runners each effectively backs but i have done a european to win the Claret Jug at evens as I think the Open always suits europeans more .Lowry might even retain his title

    With respect, I think evens is pretty poor odds for a European win.

    I wish I had a quid for every time I heard a commentator say 'the Americans might not be familiar with these types of conditions' and suddenly there they are, all over the leader board.
    Maybe ! I just like this type of bet as I do it mainly for interest and entertainment . Backign a region means somebody is almost guaranteed to be in contention in the final few holes for you and hence get max entertainment.Also pity Peter Alliss is no longer here to comment in his unique style (and also that is as essentially gone to SKy)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    edited July 13

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    The desperately need to show they can deliver copious amounts of pork for NI. We know Labour won't play that game - they said so, very loudly, in 2017.

    Their price will be several billion more.

    Oh, and that tunnel.....
    Boris: Tom Cruise
    DUP: Cuba Gooding Jr

    https://youtu.be/1-mOKMq19zU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    The desperately need to show they can deliver copious amounts of pork for NI. We know Labour won't play that game - they said so, very loudly, in 2017.

    Their price will be several billion more.

    Oh, and that tunnel.....
    Money alone will not be enough anymore, Boris would also have to remove the Irish Sea border, Donaldson is clear that is the price of DUP support.

    The only way he could do that is rip up the WA and EU FTA and go to No Deal and put a hard border in Ireland or align GB more closely to the single market and customs union, though Starmer is more likely to do the latter than Boris
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    I can't see Labour getting in to power with both the DUP and SNP supporting them - they are after completely different things and your typical Irish Protestant is way more likely to be Scottish than English.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745
    edited July 13
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 23,276
    edited July 13

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    The thought of the current PM dependent not only on who last 'advised' him but on who last 'promised' to help him is rather worrying..
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570

    The best sport tournament in the world is of course on this week with the Open.It will be nice to see well behaved crowds and no cheating as a change from the football .

    My tip is bet365 on the Region of the winner .Their book is
    European evens (includes GB and Ireland)
    USA 5/4
    Rest of the World 6/1

    Now you can bet on any of these three options and have an interesting bet to the end given the number of runners each effectively backs but i have done a european to win the Claret Jug at evens as I think the Open always suits europeans more .Lowry might even retain his title

    With respect, I think evens is pretty poor odds for a European win.

    I wish I had a quid for every time I heard a commentator say 'the Americans might not be familiar with these types of conditions' and suddenly there they are, all over the leader board.
    Maybe ! I just like this type of bet as I do it mainly for interest and entertainment . Backign a region means somebody is almost guaranteed to be in contention in the final few holes for you and hence get max entertainment
    Yes, good point. I like the bet, but not at those odds. Might go with the Americans there.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790

    2nd if their lucky under useless SKS

    What is the point of that comment?

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 13

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,684
    The article is about right. I would add that at this moment where we are it would be impossible to have a position on the lockdown etc which commanded strong support in polling. Polling in these sorts of situations records that people don't want something about what is offered, but doesn't record a consensus about what to do instead. A good time for pure 'opposition' politics - wait and see which bit goes wrong - as is certain - and then attack the government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,918
    I'm on the other side of this bet.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,136



    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.

    The tory party doesn't do gratitude (or empathy, humility and humanity) so they would ditch Johnson in a second if he were an impediment to forming a governing coalition.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13
    Brom said:

    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.

    Heath in 1970 was never that personally popular compared to Wilson who like Boris was more likeable and charismatic but won to everyone's surprise as the government became unpopular and like Starmer he presented himself as dull but competent.

    Sunak I think would do a little better than Boris in Remain areas of the South and the posher parts of London but worse than Boris in the Red Wall.

    Any other alternative Tory leader would do worse than both
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570
    Brom said:

    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.

    Mr Brom it seems to me that a fair few swing voters are turning off Johnson, but they don't much like Starmer either. I think there is evidence many are simply disillusioned.

    This isn't so bad for the opposition, but it is very bad news for the tories.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,570

    BREAKING: Indonesia reports 47,899 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, and 864 new deaths

    Delta is going to kill a hell of a lot of people over the next few months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,207
    Given the ban on citizens returning home, interstate travel, and Sydney in lockdown, I am wondering how there is a French rugby team playing an international in Oz?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    Dura_Ace said:



    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.

    The tory party doesn't do gratitude (or empathy, humility and humanity) so they would ditch Johnson in a second if he were an impediment to forming a governing coalition.
    Quite right too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border



    From what you say, they plainly are doing it to make up mythical horror stories about how awful Labour will be.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    Its time. Its Ricky Dicki Di Do Burgon Time.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Incoming fun will be hitting the UK, from this, quite soon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Dura_Ace said:



    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.

    The tory party doesn't do gratitude (or empathy, humility and humanity) so they would ditch Johnson in a second if he were an impediment to forming a governing coalition.
    It wouldn't just be Johnson, the LDs would demand closer alignment to the single market and customs union the Tory right would not accept, the DUP would demand removal of the Irish Sea border, the SNP would demand indyref2 etc
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.

    Heath in 1970 was never that personally popular compared to Wilson who like Boris was more likeable and charismatic but won to everyone's surprise as the government became unpopular and like Starmer he presented himself as dull but competent.

    Sunak I think would do a little better than Boris in Remain areas of the South and the posher parts of London but worse than Boris in the Red Wall.

    Any other alternative Tory leader would do worse than both
    As ever good analysis from HYUFD
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 11,744
    tlg86 said:

    Diane Abbott just used the N word on Politics Live. Feel for Jo Coburn...

    Nazi? Bit harsh to call Coburn that just cos she works for the BBC.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border

    The SNP would abstain on English matters. They always have done, plus if the Labour government is incompetent and can't get votes through Parliament then the SNP can keep demanding a price to be paid.

    If a second referendum is already on the cards, which would be a prerequisite before a Queens Speech even, then having Westminster shown to be not working is good news for the SNP not bad news. They have no incentive to vote on English only matters once the bill has been passed for a referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border



    From what you say, they plainly are doing it to make up mythical horror stories about how awful Labour will be.
    The Tories are clearly planning on rerunning the 2015 campaign, only replacing Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket with Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    That's for light weights. Really rich people hire private doctors who prescribe for them. And then get their prescriptions turned into NHS prescriptions.

    So *you* pay for *their* pharamceutical grade drugs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,079
    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Perhaps BJ could declare UDI in those circs?
    Send in the tanks!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,136

    Truly remarkable really that with the next election being 14 years into Tory-led government that even the Opposition don't think they have any chance of getting a majority.

    Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?

    Its time. Its Ricky Dicki Di Do Burgon Time.

    He could easily play Quagmire if they make a live action Family Guy film.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border

    The SNP would abstain on English matters. They always have done, plus if the Labour government is incompetent and can't get votes through Parliament then the SNP can keep demanding a price to be paid.

    If a second referendum is already on the cards, which would be a prerequisite before a Queens Speech even, then having Westminster shown to be not working is good news for the SNP not bad news. They have no incentive to vote on English only matters once the bill has been passed for a referendum.
    At the moment, if Labour offer the SNP devomax and indyref2 for voting on English domestic legislation they would change course and do so.

    Labour would obviously only put forward legislation for an indyref2 after they had a confidence and supply agreement signed with the SNP that SNP MPs would vote on English domestic legislation
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570

    That's for light weights. Really rich people hire private doctors who prescribe for them. And then get their prescriptions turned into NHS prescriptions.

    So *you* pay for *their* pharamceutical grade drugs.
    The tabloids would love that story.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,268
    tlg86 said:

    Diane Abbott just used the N word on Politics Live. Feel for Jo Coburn...

    Numeracy?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 41,949

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.

    Heath in 1970 was never that personally popular compared to Wilson who like Boris was more likeable and charismatic but won to everyone's surprise as the government became unpopular and like Starmer he presented himself as dull but competent.

    Sunak I think would do a little better than Boris in Remain areas of the South and the posher parts of London but worse than Boris in the Red Wall.

    Any other alternative Tory leader would do worse than both
    I agree with that, though we're going back over 50 years for Heath to go against the grain which isn't encouraging for Lab. I think Sunak could hold most of the seats in the Red Wall with the right team around him. A Prescott style bruiser did wonders for Blair after all. Angela Rayner on the other hand is a huge turn off for many and I'm sure if Starmer could somehow ditch her his prospects would look a lot rosier.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 13

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    The imprisonment of Zuma.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739
    The only class As I do these days are sustainably harvested from Dartmoor, courtesy of mother Nature.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601

    That's for light weights. Really rich people hire private doctors who prescribe for them. And then get their prescriptions turned into NHS prescriptions.

    So *you* pay for *their* pharamceutical grade drugs.
    The tabloids would love that story.
    The editors and their mates wouldn't.

    I'm surprised how many people don't realise this is going on.

    Think of all the celebrities who pop their clogs, as a result of stacked up prescription medications. Where do you think they got them from? Danny the Drug Dealer, or Dr Mellifluous of Harley Street?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 58,366
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border

    The SNP would abstain on English matters. They always have done, plus if the Labour government is incompetent and can't get votes through Parliament then the SNP can keep demanding a price to be paid.

    If a second referendum is already on the cards, which would be a prerequisite before a Queens Speech even, then having Westminster shown to be not working is good news for the SNP not bad news. They have no incentive to vote on English only matters once the bill has been passed for a referendum.
    At the moment, if Labour offer the SNP devomax and indyref2 for voting on English domestic legislation they would change course and do so.

    Labour would obviously only put forward legislation for an indyref2 after they had a confidence and supply agreement signed with the SNP that SNP MPs would vote on English domestic legislation
    Really?

    How do you think that would go down with both English and Scottish voters?

    That is not the kind of thing you put down in writing. Especially since no non coalition partner ever agrees to back you all the time with a blank cheque. Heck even your own backbenchers don't. As May found out to to her peril when her confidence and supply agreement didn't allow her to pass bills.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    Lando Norris mugged at Wembley after football flop.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border



    From what you say, they plainly are doing it to make up mythical horror stories about how awful Labour will be.
    The Tories are clearly planning on rerunning the 2015 campaign, only replacing Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket with Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket
    How would a comeback with Boris in nutnut's pocket play?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 3,796

    What is clear from yesterday, is the government advisors don't think covid isn't going anywhere. There will be a summer wave, then a winter covod / flu crisis, etc.

    We are been setup for years of this. And of course that will be part of politics as well.

    Unfortunately you are correct. We need to dig in for the (very) long haul.

    The right balance needs to be struck between freedom and caution. Personal responsibility is part of that, but there is a real risk that the Government will need to reintroduce restrictions at some point in time.
    Genuine question: why wouldn't covid just end once we have reached her immunity? Surely that is the point of herd immunity? My understanding - and it is based on no expertise, only what I have read in the same sources that everyone else has - is that even the nastiest variants have an R0 which will be lower than 5 or 6 - and we can get to a level of antibodies in the population needed to beat that level through a mixture of vaccination and infection - indeed, we are already quite close to it and the exit wave should see us over the line.

    Covid probably won't be able to escape the combined forces of vaccination and infection because the evolutionary paths it can go down while still remaining infectious are limited.

    It won't end instantly - an R of 0.9 where we have 50,000 infections will take a long time to get down to zero - but it will end. Maybe not this winter, but almost certainly by next. In theory.

    Has anything changed to change this point of view?
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    Brom said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    Is strange we get endless positive headers on Starmer despite Labour polling in the low to mid 30s and his personal approval ratings being miles behind the PM. Has any opposition leader become PM after hitting such personal lows?

    I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.

    Heath in 1970 was never that personally popular compared to Wilson who like Boris was more likeable and charismatic but won to everyone's surprise as the government became unpopular and like Starmer he presented himself as dull but competent.

    Sunak I think would do a little better than Boris in Remain areas of the South and the posher parts of London but worse than Boris in the Red Wall.

    Any other alternative Tory leader would do worse than both
    I agree with that, though we're going back over 50 years for Heath to go against the grain which isn't encouraging for Lab. I think Sunak could hold most of the seats in the Red Wall with the right team around him. A Prescott style bruiser did wonders for Blair after all. Angela Rayner on the other hand is a huge turn off for many and I'm sure if Starmer could somehow ditch her his prospects would look a lot rosier.
    Round here I suspect Sunak (being localish) would do even better than Boris does...
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    gealbhan said:

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    The imprisonment of Zuma.
    He was rightly found guilty, custodial on cards for sometime, and he voluntary went in. No excuse for the rioting and violence.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    Things seem to be slowing down in Wales.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 13

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    I don't know how you turn around the current levels of violence, crime and corruption in the near future. Before you even get to all the other issues.

    That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a busy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route. And the police are combination of useless, corrupt and this is above my pay grade.

    On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    I don't know how you turn around the current levels of violence, crime and corruption in the near future. Before you even get to all the other issues.

    That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a isy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route.

    On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
    My favourite is the "He lent his gun" excuse. Apparently, ballistics often links crimes to policeman guns. It turns out that renting your gun to criminals is a thing for the police, in South Africa. Allegedly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 13

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    Plus a potential 3rd vision for independence for the Western Cape, the only province the ANC lost to the Democratic Alliance at the last election.

    There is now a Cape Party seeking independence for Western Cape
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Party

    Zuma and Ramaphosa basically just represent the 2 wings of the ANC
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,006
    Cookie said:

    What is clear from yesterday, is the government advisors don't think covid isn't going anywhere. There will be a summer wave, then a winter covod / flu crisis, etc.

    We are been setup for years of this. And of course that will be part of politics as well.

    Unfortunately you are correct. We need to dig in for the (very) long haul.

    The right balance needs to be struck between freedom and caution. Personal responsibility is part of that, but there is a real risk that the Government will need to reintroduce restrictions at some point in time.
    Genuine question: why wouldn't covid just end once we have reached her immunity? Surely that is the point of herd immunity? My understanding - and it is based on no expertise, only what I have read in the same sources that everyone else has - is that even the nastiest variants have an R0 which will be lower than 5 or 6 - and we can get to a level of antibodies in the population needed to beat that level through a mixture of vaccination and infection - indeed, we are already quite close to it and the exit wave should see us over the line.

    Covid probably won't be able to escape the combined forces of vaccination and infection because the evolutionary paths it can go down while still remaining infectious are limited.

    It won't end instantly - an R of 0.9 where we have 50,000 infections will take a long time to get down to zero - but it will end. Maybe not this winter, but almost certainly by next. In theory.

    Has anything changed to change this point of view?
    All of the above is reasonable - however we have seen the virus evolve and the impression of 'we are nearly there' has been around before, but we haven't been.

    I think this winter will be difficult and we may see a big jump in flu cases at the same time because we had very few last time - but yes it's possible COVID will disappear by next Winter 2022/2023. In theory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree with OGH.

    I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.

    On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.

    Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain

    Also should be noted the DUP would likely now abstain rather than prop up Boris as they propped up May in 2017 after he put a border in the Irish Sea and Starmer said he opposed a United Ireland unlike Corbyn.

    To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
    I don't think that is quite right. Whilst Mike is right that no other party is likely to want to go into coalition with the Conservatives led by Boris, it doesn't follow that in a hung parliament where he narrowly misses getting a majority that there will be any other viable alternative coalition or arrangement. A very weak, probably short-lived, Tory minority government might be the only possibility in such a scenario.
    Possibly but it would have to be SF that has the balance of power in that scenario ie the Tories very close to an overall majority anyway and SF refuse still to take their seats.

    Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
    Backroom deals with the SNP, PC, the LibDems, maybe a Green or two, AND the DUP all at the same time would be very challenging. It requires the parties simultaneously to think such deals are in their interests, but their interests are conflicting.
    Plus such a deal would leave the PM impotent on English only matters where the SNP would abstain (and Westminster disorder is good news for the SNP).

    Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
    Not if the Tories scrap EVEL as Gove wants it wouldn't, then Scottish SNP and Welsh Labour MPs could and would vote on English domestic legislation if that was part of an SNP deal with Starmer in return for devomax and indyref2.

    As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border

    The SNP would abstain on English matters. They always have done, plus if the Labour government is incompetent and can't get votes through Parliament then the SNP can keep demanding a price to be paid.

    If a second referendum is already on the cards, which would be a prerequisite before a Queens Speech even, then having Westminster shown to be not working is good news for the SNP not bad news. They have no incentive to vote on English only matters once the bill has been passed for a referendum.
    At the moment, if Labour offer the SNP devomax and indyref2 for voting on English domestic legislation they would change course and do so.

    Labour would obviously only put forward legislation for an indyref2 after they had a confidence and supply agreement signed with the SNP that SNP MPs would vote on English domestic legislation
    Really?

    How do you think that would go down with both English and Scottish voters?

    That is not the kind of thing you put down in writing. Especially since no non coalition partner ever agrees to back you all the time with a blank cheque. Heck even your own backbenchers don't. As May found out to to her peril when her confidence and supply agreement didn't allow her to pass bills.
    Nonetheless any agreement would have to include a commitment from the SNP not to automatically abstain on English domestic legislation, otherwise Starmer would not be able to get his English legislation through assuming the Tories still had a majority of English MPs even if not UK MPs
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,151
    And...

    7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    I don't know how you turn around the current levels of violence, crime and corruption in the near future. Before you even get to all the other issues.

    That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a isy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route.

    On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
    My favourite is the "He lent his gun" excuse. Apparently, ballistics often links crimes to policeman guns. It turns out that renting your gun to criminals is a thing for the police, in South Africa. Allegedly.
    This is a country where you ring the police on 911 and they routinely say we'll come if you can pay off our taxi when we get here, so why not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    And...

    7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.

    Starmer would have to offer them both a carrot of course ie indyref2 and devomax for the SNP and closer alignment to the single market and customs union for the LDs
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,823
    HYUFD said:

    And...

    7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.

    Starmer would have to offer them both a carrot of course ie indyref2 and devomax for the SNP and closer alignment to the single market and customs union for the LDs
    PR
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,079
    Bottler BJ


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    edited July 13
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    I don't know how you turn around the current levels of violence, crime and corruption in the near future. Before you even get to all the other issues.

    That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a isy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route.

    On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
    My favourite is the "He lent his gun" excuse. Apparently, ballistics often links crimes to policeman guns. It turns out that renting your gun to criminals is a thing for the police, in South Africa. Allegedly.
    This is a country where you ring the police on 911 and they routinely say we'll come if you can pay off our taxi when we get here, so why not?
    I met a chap, while scuba diving in Egypt, who worked delivering luxury cars in SA. For the er... fun.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    HYUFD said:

    And...

    7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.

    Starmer would have to offer them both a carrot of course ie indyref2 and devomax for the SNP and closer alignment to the single market and customs union for the LDs
    PR
    For the LDs maybe, PR would not benefit the SNP at Westminster but it would the LDs who would become near permanent kingmakers
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570
    Andy_JS said:

    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?

    Why isn't Cuba?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,207

    What are the hurdles that Starmer has to overcome to be the next PM?

    1. He has to survive as Labour leader until the next general election. While Labour politics is currently quite fractious we can be reasonably confident this will happen, but it's by no means certain.

    2. Boris Johnson has to want to fight the next general election. Being PM is the sort of job that is hard to give up, but if anyone would it would be Boris for reasons widely discussed.

    3. Boris Johnson has to be allowed to fight the next general election. I get the impression that loyalty to Johnson is wide, but shallow. Tory MPs will not stand by him through difficult times if he looks losing the next GE.

    4. Scotland is a problem, as it was for Miliband in 2015. Given the wide gulf between denying the Tories a majority (40-odd lost seats) and winning a majority for Labour (125-ish seats to win), Starmer will be dogged by the question of what price he will pay the SNP for a coalition. He will have no answer and the SNP will have no interest in making it easy for him.

    5. Starmer needs to pin the blame for something onto the government, so that the public as a whole decide they want a change of government. He's had very limited success on this front in the strange, but target-rich, environment of the pandemic.

    6. Starmer needs to be reasonably convincing as a potential PM, leading a competent shadow Cabinet, with a story to tell the public, so they decide he represents the change they want to see. He's not quite there yet on this one.

    Put all these together and I find it hard to make a case for Starmer as next PM to be more likely than 1-in-10 at best. I think that, at 18%, he's too high on the basis of a bias towards favouring the leader of the opposition for this sort of question.

    Worth remembering that, since Thatcher's victory in 1979, we've had six changes of PM, and only two of those were to the leader of the opposition, and neither of those were from the PM at the time of the previous general election to the leader of the opposition in the second year of the Parliament.

    There have been eleven (non-caretaker) leaders of the opposition in that period and only two became PM. Are Starmer's odds really better than par (with the added discount that Johnson has to survive to the GE for the bet to win)?

    I think Starmer is terrible value at 18%.

    I think the key point is we have had a change of governing Party twice in 42 years.
    It is a rare event in modern history.
    So needs rare events to occur for it to happen.
    Stagflation is about the only thing I can see. And I'm not sure we will see that take full effect before 2024.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scenes of total anarchy in South Africa at the moment.

    Hearing terrible things. Biggest story in the world right now.

    Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
    You don't have to hear it second hand, search twitter, you can see it.....its total meltdown territory.
    Virus related?
    No widespread violence, shooting, beating, tyre necklaces, looting, the full works....like something out of that Purge movie.
    It's basically 2 visions of the future for South Africa...

    a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
    b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
    I don't know how you turn around the current levels of violence, crime and corruption in the near future. Before you even get to all the other issues.

    That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a isy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route.

    On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
    My favourite is the "He lent his gun" excuse. Apparently, ballistics often links crimes to policeman guns. It turns out that renting your gun to criminals is a thing for the police, in South Africa. Allegedly.
    This is a country where you ring the police on 911 and they routinely say we'll come if you can pay off our taxi when we get here, so why not?
    I met a chap, while scuba diving in Egypt, who worked delivering luxury cars in SA. For the er... fun.
    Dream job, unless you need life insurance.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 814
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And...

    7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.

    Starmer would have to offer them both a carrot of course ie indyref2 and devomax for the SNP and closer alignment to the single market and customs union for the LDs
    PR
    For the LDs maybe, PR would not benefit the SNP at Westminster but it would the LDs who would become near permanent kingmakers
    And to have any chance of Lib Dem backing, the government of the day would have to be moderate Conservative or moderate Labour. Neither would be precisely my cup of tea, but I would not tear my hair out with either of those. And the government would be kept honest.

    What is there in that not to like?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739

    Andy_JS said:

    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?

    Why isn't Cuba?
    Agreed, that seems more likely to have long term consequences.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,812
    Andy_JS said:

    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?

    My cynical guess: it's to complex to explain to viewers/listeners in a couple of minutes. In addition, people rioting because an ex-leader handed himself in because of criminal allegations leads to a whole series of rabbit holes many media organisations will not want to touch with a bargepole.

    The current story about racism against footballers is much more immediate to the public, and easier to explain.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,071

    2nd if their lucky under useless SKS

    What is the point of that comment?

    What is the point of any comment on here?

    To amuse? To inform? To educate?

    @bigjohnowls post did all three
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939

    BREAKING: Indonesia reports 47,899 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, and 864 new deaths

    Red list or Amber list?

    You get one guess....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,939
    POLICE Scotland have launched a formal investigation into potential criminality involving SNP fundraising.

    The force, which has been assessing a fraud allegation from a member of the public since late March, said it had escalated its work after consulting with prosecutors.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19438528.police-scotland-launch-fraud-probe-snp-fundraising-indyref2/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415

    Andy_JS said:

    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?

    Why isn't Cuba?
    Yes they both ought to be on the news more prominently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 13

    Andy_JS said:

    Why isn't South Africa one of the main item on the news?

    My cynical guess: it's to complex to explain to viewers/listeners in a couple of minutes. In addition, people rioting because an ex-leader handed himself in because of criminal allegations leads to a whole series of rabbit holes many media organisations will not want to touch with a bargepole.

    The current story about racism against footballers is much more immediate to the public, and easier to explain.
    So much for the media role to inform and educate.....tricky story, bin that / stick it way down the running order.

    Also, twitter is the bubble most of the media live in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,918
    What’s the news from South Africa? Link?

    (As an aside I think it’s poor that the British media focus so much on domestic trivia and, if they do international, just touch upon Brussels and Beijing in so far as it affects us, but get massively obsessed by America. There’s a whole world out there.)
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