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Starmer starting to look a good bet as an 18% chance to be next PM – politicalbetting.com
Starmer starting to look a good bet as an 18% chance to be next PM – politicalbetting.com
Next Monday is going to be another COVID milestone that has become increasingly less significant the closer we get. What was promised by the PM as “freedom day” is going to end up as a massive gamble if the controls are lifted and made voluntary. The polling on this doesn’t look good and if if the infection numbers soar as predicted the PM will struggle to avoid the blame.
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We are been setup for years of this. And of course that will be part of politics as well.
I think there is near zero chance of a Labour majority in 2023/24 but there is a significant chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament if Labour win back a few Red Wall seats and the LDs pick up enough Tory Remain seats like Chesham and Amersham in the South.
On that basis Starmer could become UK PM with LD and SNP support even if the Tories still win most seats and even if Boris wins a Tory majority in England again.
Boris would easily be re elected as PM of England, however as PM of the UK his re election is much less certain
Maybe Starmer should be replaced with someone who could get one?
The right balance needs to be struck between freedom and caution. Personal responsibility is part of that, but there is a real risk that the Government will need to reintroduce restrictions at some point in time.
Burnham would thus only be a contender for Labour leader if Starmer loses the next election
Starmer has been tried and found wanting.
Cameron was almost unheard of a year before he became leader and he came through and nearly got a majority.
Labour might have a Cameron on their benches that we don't know about yet.
Cameron of course failed to win a majority in 2010, he was no Blair 1997.
Starmer is also no Blair but he could be a Cameron
Starmer is no Cameron.
To stay PM after the next general election Boris therefore has to win another overall majority
My tip is bet365 on the Region of the winner .Their book is
European evens (includes GB and Ireland)
USA 5/4
Rest of the World 6/1
Now you can bet on any of these three options and have an interesting bet to the end given the number of runners each effectively backs but i have done a european to win the Claret Jug at evens as I think the Open always suits europeans more .Lowry might even retain his title
Cameron got a lower voteshare for the Tories than Boris or even May in 2010 and 2015, he was no Messiah, certainly on the scale of Blair and the New Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001. He just had fewer negatives than Hague, IDS and Howard. He was a reasonably competent PM but was never loved by voters as early years Blair was.
There is no reason Starmer could not be a Cameron at all, reasonably competent, few negatives like Corbyn but no great electoral appeal either
If it came down to DUP votes then they're never going to abstain. They'd have a Jerry Maguire moment.
Their price will be several billion more.
Oh, and that tunnel.....
Otherwise Boris could find he faces the fate of the Nationals Bill English in New Zealand in 2017, the Conservatives win most seats but Starmer like Ardern gets Labour into power by backroom deals with other parties
I wish I had a quid for every time I heard a commentator say 'the Americans might not be familiar with these types of conditions' and suddenly there they are, all over the leader board.
DUP: Cuba Gooding Jr
https://youtu.be/1-mOKMq19zU
The only way he could do that is rip up the WA and EU FTA and go to No Deal and put a hard border in Ireland or align GB more closely to the single market and customs union, though Starmer is more likely to do the latter than Boris
Apart from some twattish racist cyber trolls, natch.
I don't believe Corbyn got such preferential treatment. If he does somehow claw back regular polling leads the Tories have Plan B which is Sunak so they're in a very strong position right now.
Labour could benefit more from leaving a wounded Tory government on its last legs reliant upon the DUP before getting put out of its misery at the next election. As could have happened in 2017 had the Opposition not played into the Tories internal opposition's hands.
Sunak I think would do a little better than Boris in Remain areas of the South and the posher parts of London but worse than Boris in the Red Wall.
Any other alternative Tory leader would do worse than both
This isn't so bad for the opposition, but it is very bad news for the tories.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
As I said the DUP will not support the Tories again unless and until they remove the Irish Sea border
From what you say, they plainly are doing it to make up mythical horror stories about how awful Labour will be.
If a second referendum is already on the cards, which would be a prerequisite before a Queens Speech even, then having Westminster shown to be not working is good news for the SNP not bad news. They have no incentive to vote on English only matters once the bill has been passed for a referendum.
So *you* pay for *their* pharamceutical grade drugs.
Send in the tanks!
Labour would obviously only put forward legislation for an indyref2 after they had a confidence and supply agreement signed with the SNP that SNP MPs would vote on English domestic legislation
I'm surprised how many people don't realise this is going on.
Think of all the celebrities who pop their clogs, as a result of stacked up prescription medications. Where do you think they got them from? Danny the Drug Dealer, or Dr Mellifluous of Harley Street?
How do you think that would go down with both English and Scottish voters?
That is not the kind of thing you put down in writing. Especially since no non coalition partner ever agrees to back you all the time with a blank cheque. Heck even your own backbenchers don't. As May found out to to her peril when her confidence and supply agreement didn't allow her to pass bills.
a) Zuma's - strong man helps himself and his friends to what they want, gives something to the masses. Sold as "it's our turn now, after Apartheid"
b) Ramaphosa - try and turn South Africa into a developed world social democracy.
Covid probably won't be able to escape the combined forces of vaccination and infection because the evolutionary paths it can go down while still remaining infectious are limited.
It won't end instantly - an R of 0.9 where we have 50,000 infections will take a long time to get down to zero - but it will end. Maybe not this winter, but almost certainly by next. In theory.
Has anything changed to change this point of view?
That viral video of the security guard in the armoured car from a couple of months ago. They need those to protect any lorries with anything valuable, the criminals happy to spray bullets around in the middle of a busy motorway...and the security guard said in an interview said its well known these crimes are driven by ex-military and often inside job giving all the details of the route. And the police are combination of useless, corrupt and this is above my pay grade.
On the day of that video there were 3 other similar crimes in that city alone.
There is now a Cape Party seeking independence for Western Cape
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Party
Zuma and Ramaphosa basically just represent the 2 wings of the ANC
1. He has to survive as Labour leader until the next general election. While Labour politics is currently quite fractious we can be reasonably confident this will happen, but it's by no means certain.
2. Boris Johnson has to want to fight the next general election. Being PM is the sort of job that is hard to give up, but if anyone would it would be Boris for reasons widely discussed.
3. Boris Johnson has to be allowed to fight the next general election. I get the impression that loyalty to Johnson is wide, but shallow. Tory MPs will not stand by him through difficult times if he looks losing the next GE.
4. Scotland is a problem, as it was for Miliband in 2015. Given the wide gulf between denying the Tories a majority (40-odd lost seats) and winning a majority for Labour (125-ish seats to win), Starmer will be dogged by the question of what price he will pay the SNP for a coalition. He will have no answer and the SNP will have no interest in making it easy for him.
5. Starmer needs to pin the blame for something onto the government, so that the public as a whole decide they want a change of government. He's had very limited success on this front in the strange, but target-rich, environment of the pandemic.
6. Starmer needs to be reasonably convincing as a potential PM, leading a competent shadow Cabinet, with a story to tell the public, so they decide he represents the change they want to see. He's not quite there yet on this one.
Put all these together and I find it hard to make a case for Starmer as next PM to be more likely than 1-in-10 at best. I think that, at 18%, he's too high on the basis of a bias towards favouring the leader of the opposition for this sort of question.
Worth remembering that, since Thatcher's victory in 1979, we've had six changes of PM, and only two of those were to the leader of the opposition, and neither of those were from the PM at the time of the previous general election to the leader of the opposition in the second year of the Parliament.
There have been eleven (non-caretaker) leaders of the opposition in that period and only two became PM. Are Starmer's odds really better than par (with the added discount that Johnson has to survive to the GE for the bet to win)?
I think Starmer is terrible value at 18%.
I think this winter will be difficult and we may see a big jump in flu cases at the same time because we had very few last time - but yes it's possible COVID will disappear by next Winter 2022/2023. In theory.
7. Even if Starmer passes all those hurdles, and we do end up with a hung Parliament, unless Labour are the largest party, he may find it hard to convince the SNP and Lib Dems to actively vote with him to evict Johnson from Number Ten. They may both prefer to abstain.
It is a rare event in modern history.
So needs rare events to occur for it to happen.
Stagflation is about the only thing I can see. And I'm not sure we will see that take full effect before 2024.
What is there in that not to like?
The current story about racism against footballers is much more immediate to the public, and easier to explain.
To amuse? To inform? To educate?
@bigjohnowls post did all three
You get one guess....
The force, which has been assessing a fraud allegation from a member of the public since late March, said it had escalated its work after consulting with prosecutors.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19438528.police-scotland-launch-fraud-probe-snp-fundraising-indyref2/
Also, twitter is the bubble most of the media live in.
(As an aside I think it’s poor that the British media focus so much on domestic trivia and, if they do international, just touch upon Brussels and Beijing in so far as it affects us, but get massively obsessed by America. There’s a whole world out there.)