I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
@Cyclefree paints a disturbing picture. What Couzens did to Sarah Everard was evil. The Metropolitan Police seem to stagger from one crisis to the next, learning nothing.
And yet – and forgive me for not being familiar with the case – it is not clear that the two are causally connected. If Couzens had been discovered earlier and thrown out of the police, as he clearly should have been, or not recruited in the first place, how would this have saved Sarah Everard's life?
Couzens kidnapped, raped and murdered Sarah Everard but not in his role as a police officer. This was not like, for instance, tasering and kicking Dalian Atkinson to death or shooting Jean Charles de Menezes for running for the tube, or shooting Harry Stanley for carrying a chair leg, where the assailants' police standing was crucial.
Moving on, yes, the clues were there, as they often are. But we need to be careful that we do not rule out the rehabilitation of offenders. That man was convicted of flashing, or these days, that woman sent an offensive tweet. We have in the recent past had actors and reporters who in past lives had served time for murder: I'm not sure that could happen now.
But yes, on the big picture, there do seem to be systemic problems with the Met and other police forces. Lessons, one suspects, will not be learned.
It is odd. And it so easy to game if you are a malign foreign actor, eg Russia
We've been discussing the mad "Russian" Scot-nat-o-bot, and her skill at seeming quasi plausible, to roil Unionists and devalue Nattery. How much simpler to just stoke racial grievance. You don't need an English-speaking brainaic in Novosibirsk to do that, you just need a GPT2-ish AI to endlessly create social media accounts and swamp the web
American discourse has been totally poisoned by this, both sides will not even speak to each other. We are next for targetting. It is obvious. So easy to do. Destroy a country with a few million tweets. Doddle Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
It gives a warm fuzzy feeling to think that most of the online racist abuse last night came from Russian bots. Easily solved that is really. And then I watched the videos from Wembley and listened to first hand accounts, including about your Corbyn follower mate. Hmmm. And there dissolves the warm fuzzy feeling.
Likewise. I've now seen enough videos to think Ugh
It is possible to believe these two thoughts at the same time: there is a problem with racism and thuggery in English football, and Taking The Knee actually makes it worse
A lot of the resentment I am seeing is: fuck these millionaires telling us we are racist, who cares, they lost, I might as well be racist
It is not a wholesome dynamic. Again, my guess is that all this has been easily and expertly stoked by outside actors
This is hardly new. Football fans have always been a source of embarrassment to the England team and, by extension, he nation as a whole. I never get any joy from watching us at football. Even in the darkest days of the 90s I have always gleaned considerably more pride in our cricket team and it’s fans. The rugby bunch are worthy but dull fan wise. But the football crowd…urgh…
Again, I’ve been to several England games and the crowd has been perfectly fine. I am as appalled as anyone about some of last night’s scenes but I’m concerned we are tarring all England fans with the same brush - while also implying that hooliganism is uniquely English.
The last England game I went to was in Middlesbrough in 2002 when Wembley was being rebuilt - a Euro 2004 qualifier. I sat in a bar waiting for my friend who had got us the tickets regained with the dulcet tones of a song about rather being from Pakistan than Turkey sage that the chorus did not present the sentiment quite like that. Never had any desire to go again and even watching on TV just makes me tense.
This exact song and game has been cited twice now. It was horrific, but it was two decades ago. I have never encountered anything like it in the England games I have attended. Indeed, the crowd was much more middle class and polite than you find at the Championship grounds I visit with my club.
Can I congratulate Cyclefree and the mods for posting, as ever, an excellent and eloquent thread on a subject no one, right now, gives a tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny little fuck about?
It is uncanny, your ability to find the subject-NOT-of-the-moment
It's funny, this is what I think about your posts
The comments veered off topic as early as comment 4. And that was Robert Smithson, widow of this parish
They're not doing any favours to Cylcefree, who is articulate and often interesting, if a bit long-winded for my tastes. Her thoughtful essays go unread because other issues dominate
I read it, and thought it was fantastic, as usual with Cyclefree. I have many of my own thoughts about HR, recruitment, how to deal with bad uns in the workplace, the role of tribunals, trade unions and the media, cultural inertia, risk-taking and useless managers. I’m sure a lot of us do. Just cos we don’t post on the thread header does not mean we are disinterested.
When I went to matches at Wembley in this tournament I was under the impression that Wembley Stadium Limited like all the other grounds handed over control to Uefa for the tournament. I believe they made their own stewarding arrangements and oversaw the ticketing debacle so believe Uefa deserve a lot more of the blame than the FA do. Though of course the soft policing and idiot ‘fans’ themselves deserve a roasting too.
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
"Although the vast majority of the population, including the clinically extremely vulnerable, will be well protected by the vaccine, no vaccine is 100% effective and there is emerging evidence that suggests that some immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals may not respond as well to COVID-19 vaccines as others. However, all COVID-19 vaccines should offer some degree of protection. Therefore, it is really important that you have both your first and second dose of the coronavirus vaccine.
A recent study from Public Health England, which looked at more than 1 million people in at-risk groups, found that people who are immunosuppressed are significantly better protected from symptomatic infection following the second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.*
We are continuing to work to better understand who is less well protected by the COVID-19 vaccines, and there are various studies underway that are looking at this"
* This was conducted when the Kent variant was dominant.
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Vulnerable double jabbed people being told to pseudo shield, don't have contact with non double jabbed people.
Puts tin foil hat on....do we think that perhaps there is concern that the virus escape might be occurring a bit more readily than initial thought / current historical data says?
Don't think so, it's just the Government changing its mind every five minutes.
Anyway, the "vulnerable" aren't some vast monolithic bloc. Some people are so medically compromised and/or terrified that they've never stopped shielding; others have had enough and will ignore these kinds of entreaties completely; and you'll get various degrees of caution in between.
And their actions shouldn't be monolithic either.
It might be worthwhile taking extra precautions if:
You're waiting for a vaccination to take effect You're in an area with a high level of infection You're taking part in an activity with a higher level of risk You have medical issues with make you more vulnerable
Everyone has their individual circumstances and need to make their own decisions.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
Only a fascist would agree that they don’t have a right to boo. The whole circus was sadly completely avoidable. Supposedly it wasn’t political but you’ve got politicians interfering in football and footballers interfering in politics. I suspect Mings and Patel won’t be in their respective positions in a couple of years thankfully. One is not a very good Home Sec and one is not a very good international centre back.
Yet plenty of people across the political,and celebrity spectrum are doing just that and trying to deny the right of fans to boo.
Wouldn’t a flattening ordinarily precede a peak? Therefore both Scott and Robert could be right (and might well be AFAIK).
I would be astonished if the weekend hijinks didn't result in a spike of cases.
Definitely. It's inevitable given that the government refused to open outdoor fan parks and had everyone cram into front rooms and pubs instead. I still have yet to see any compelling reason that mayors weren't forced to make provisions for outdoor viewing spaces with large numbers.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
Only a fascist would agree that they don’t have a right to boo. The whole circus was sadly completely avoidable. Supposedly it wasn’t political but you’ve got politicians interfering in football and footballers interfering in politics. I suspect Mings and Patel won’t be in their respective positions in a couple of years thankfully. One is not a very good Home Sec and one is not a very good international centre back.
Crap from start to finish. I'll give you that Patel is a dreadful Home Sec but Mings isn't a bad centre back but like most of your mindset the real point flies right over your head.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
Telling people not to go out if they have a few doubts about the virus is not a good piece of advice. Being out in the fresh air is one of the best things you can do.
"Although the vast majority of the population, including the clinically extremely vulnerable, will be well protected by the vaccine, no vaccine is 100% effective and there is emerging evidence that suggests that some immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals may not respond as well to COVID-19 vaccines as others. However, all COVID-19 vaccines should offer some degree of protection. Therefore, it is really important that you have both your first and second dose of the coronavirus vaccine.
A recent study from Public Health England, which looked at more than 1 million people in at-risk groups, found that people who are immunosuppressed are significantly better protected from symptomatic infection following the second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.*
We are continuing to work to better understand who is less well protected by the COVID-19 vaccines, and there are various studies underway that are looking at this"
* This was conducted when the Kent variant was dominant.
Have to say that document is going to be a nightmare for HR departments and staff everywhere.
Coupled with the message head back to the office but WFH as much as you can.
I do not decide when headers are published. I am grateful to be published at all.
Most people can be interested in more than one thing at a time. We have had endless and endlessly boring threads about football. Sometimes people go on about bloody cricket. I know that men think that what interests them should interest everyone else and is the only thing that matters but this ain't necessarily so.
Sometimes you even get posters berating other posters about not taking seriously reports of an obscure new overseas disease because they were more interested in the apparently more important topics of the day. There was one such poster last year, I seem to recall. Whatever happened to him, I wonder?
Sometimes what makes the most immediate noise is not what is most important.
But I promise you this: if I ever get published for money I will ask you to be my editor. You'll have to read what I write then. I am a Woman with Opinions. You seem to have a few of your own. It should be a lot of fun.
Deal?
Deal.
I demand a free meal at your daughter's pub, however, as payment for my editing. Quid pro quo!
A bargain. I will even throw in a luxury stay at Cyclefree Towers. Unless you want to sleep with the sheep in a field.
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Well with that approach they will surely never return as by mid September when the schools reopen, almost 70% of adults will be double jabbed.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
@Cyclefree paints a disturbing picture. What Couzens did to Sarah Everard was evil. The Metropolitan Police seem to stagger from one crisis to the next, learning nothing.
And yet – and forgive me for not being familiar with the case – it is not clear that the two are causally connected. If Couzens had been discovered earlier and thrown out of the police, as he clearly should have been, or not recruited in the first place, how would this have saved Sarah Everard's life?
Couzens kidnapped, raped and murdered Sarah Everard but not in his role as a police officer. This was not like, for instance, tasering and kicking Dalian Atkinson to death or shooting Jean Charles de Menezes for running for the tube, or shooting Harry Stanley for carrying a chair leg, where the assailants' police standing was crucial.
Moving on, yes, the clues were there, as they often are. But we need to be careful that we do not rule out the rehabilitation of offenders. That man was convicted of flashing, or these days, that woman sent an offensive tweet. We have in the recent past had actors and reporters who in past lives had served time for murder: I'm not sure that could happen now.
But yes, on the big picture, there do seem to be systemic problems with the Met and other police forces. Lessons, one suspects, will not be learned.
There is a strong suspicion he used his warrant card to get her to get in the car with him.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
There are any number of ways of making a gesture against racism. But only one of them is associated with an organisation which wants to overthrow capitalism, defund the police, abolish the nuclear family, and a whole lot of other fairly unsavoury ideas and individuals. Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other concepts.
Can I congratulate Cyclefree and the mods for posting, as ever, an excellent and eloquent thread on a subject no one, right now, gives a tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny little fuck about?
It is uncanny, your ability to find the subject-NOT-of-the-moment
It's funny, this is what I think about your posts
The comments veered off topic as early as comment 4. And that was Robert Smithson, widow of this parish
They're not doing any favours to Cylcefree, who is articulate and often interesting, if a bit long-winded for my tastes. Her thoughtful essays go unread because other issues dominate
I read it, and thought it was fantastic, as usual with Cyclefree. I have many of my own thoughts about HR, recruitment, how to deal with bad uns in the workplace, the role of tribunals, trade unions and the media, cultural inertia, risk-taking and useless managers. I’m sure a lot of us do. Just cos we don’t post on the thread header does not mean we are disinterested.
Telling people not to go out if they have a few doubts about the virus is not a good piece of advice. Being out in the fresh air is one of the best things you can do.
Absolutely. The not going out advice only applies if you are in a COVID safe environment at home 👍
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Well with that approach they will surely never return as by mid September when the schools reopen, almost 70% of adults will be double jabbed.
70% of the population by then, about 90% of adults. If the government stops fannying about then 12-17 year olds too which takes us to 75% of the population.
What's a really random factor is that third dose modelled efficacy gets us somewhere near 98% against symptomatic infection and that's with AZ unmodified for variants. The immune response is something like 8x better than 2x Pfizer 3 weeks apart and 12x better than 2x AZ 8 weeks apart.
A third vaccine dose for all adults from September to November could completely end this in the UK.
Telling people not to go out if they have a few doubts about the virus is not a good piece of advice. Being out in the fresh air is one of the best things you can do.
Absolutely. The not going out advice only applies if you are in a COVID safe environment at home 👍
So people should sleep on park benches if it's not?
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
Interesting that those thinking it is terrible to boo at taking the knee have no problem with booing members of the Government whenever they go to a sporting event.....
We have the right to boo both and we shouldn't boo either.
However I don't think they are comparable. Our leaders no matter what party are disliked by a significant portion of the population so booing is not unlikely, but who on earth thinks it is ok to boo a stand against racism? Racists?
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
There is a 16 day lag between cases and admissions. Cases are levelling off. Admissions and deaths will continue to rise (treble) for a couple of weeks before levelling off.
I thought the gap was a little shorter than that - like 8 to 10 days now.
My 16 day estimate is looking at lags in the published UK data but the data is very noisy.
Looking at the literature, the average time between exposure and symptoms is 5 days and between symptoms and hospitalisation is 7 days (3- 10 days) so 12 days from exposure to hospitalisation on average. But there is say a 2 day gap between exposure and reported case so 10 days is a reasonable estimate for lag between reportred cases and admissions to hospital. That's what I'll use from now on (rather than 16 days).
That leads to a doubling (rather than trebling) of admissions and deaths from now at the peak in a couple of weeks time.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
What happened to the idea about splitting the case numbers by symptomatic and asymptomatic? Seemed sensible to me. Also, splitting hospitalisation cases by ‘from covid’ and ‘with covid’. And, by vax status.
@Cyclefree paints a disturbing picture. What Couzens did to Sarah Everard was evil. The Metropolitan Police seem to stagger from one crisis to the next, learning nothing.
And yet – and forgive me for not being familiar with the case – it is not clear that the two are causally connected. If Couzens had been discovered earlier and thrown out of the police, as he clearly should have been, or not recruited in the first place, how would this have saved Sarah Everard's life?
Couzens kidnapped, raped and murdered Sarah Everard but not in his role as a police officer. This was not like, for instance, tasering and kicking Dalian Atkinson to death or shooting Jean Charles de Menezes for running for the tube, or shooting Harry Stanley for carrying a chair leg, where the assailants' police standing was crucial.
Moving on, yes, the clues were there, as they often are. But we need to be careful that we do not rule out the rehabilitation of offenders. That man was convicted of flashing, or these days, that woman sent an offensive tweet. We have in the recent past had actors and reporters who in past lives had served time for murder: I'm not sure that could happen now.
But yes, on the big picture, there do seem to be systemic problems with the Met and other police forces. Lessons, one suspects, will not be learned.
There is a strong suspicion he used his warrant card to get her to get in the car with him.
On the subject of warrant cards, I have often wondered how easy they are for criminals to fake?
Having never seen one, how would I know if I was being presented with a genuine warrant card? On the TV they are always presented and accepted after a cursory glance.
@Cyclefree paints a disturbing picture. What Couzens did to Sarah Everard was evil. The Metropolitan Police seem to stagger from one crisis to the next, learning nothing.
And yet – and forgive me for not being familiar with the case – it is not clear that the two are causally connected. If Couzens had been discovered earlier and thrown out of the police, as he clearly should have been, or not recruited in the first place, how would this have saved Sarah Everard's life?
Couzens kidnapped, raped and murdered Sarah Everard but not in his role as a police officer. This was not like, for instance, tasering and kicking Dalian Atkinson to death or shooting Jean Charles de Menezes for running for the tube, or shooting Harry Stanley for carrying a chair leg, where the assailants' police standing was crucial.
Moving on, yes, the clues were there, as they often are. But we need to be careful that we do not rule out the rehabilitation of offenders. That man was convicted of flashing, or these days, that woman sent an offensive tweet. We have in the recent past had actors and reporters who in past lives had served time for murder: I'm not sure that could happen now.
But yes, on the big picture, there do seem to be systemic problems with the Met and other police forces. Lessons, one suspects, will not be learned.
Two points: it is not clear whether he used his warrant card to lure Sarah into his car. So there is the possibility that it was precisely because he was a police officer that he was able to do what he did.
Of course not hiring him does not stop him offending elsewhere. But it is hardly an argument in favour of permitting poor vetting.
Second, knowing about past actions is essential. Depending on what sector you are in it may be acceptable to take people who have offended in the past but have learnt from this and improved. This is particularly the case when dealing with silly things done when young etc. That involves using one's judgment and assessing people properly rather than simply following a procedure.
We are afraid to do so. We don't use our judgment, which is surely the mark of being an adult. But judgment is like a muscle - if you don't use it every day, it won't be there when you need it. We need to get people to think intelligently about what they are doing, to use judgment, to take carefully assessed risks and to learn from what they do well and what they get wrong. And we need to value people who behave like this. Not behave like scared automatons, blindly following procedure with no modicum of common-sense.
How do we get from here to there? Damned if I know. It's what I have tried to do my entire professional life. It's what I taught my team to do. It's what I tell those who come to my talks to do. There are probably lots of us doing the same. But we are not put in charge or rewarded or praised. Look at those who are. That's what society values.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
That's Boris Johnson though. He cannot do bad news, it goes against everything he understands, hence the constant flip flopping.
I am ashamed we could not beat him - we should have put up a much better opponent.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
Only a fascist would agree that they don’t have a right to boo. The whole circus was sadly completely avoidable. Supposedly it wasn’t political but you’ve got politicians interfering in football and footballers interfering in politics. I suspect Mings and Patel won’t be in their respective positions in a couple of years thankfully. One is not a very good Home Sec and one is not a very good international centre back.
Crap from start to finish. I'll give you that Patel is a dreadful Home Sec but Mings isn't a bad centre back but like most of your mindset the real point flies right over your head.
Put you down as a bit fascist then! Yeah Mings is adequate back up but we wouldn’t be close to the final if he was starting IMO. Maguire is a massive set up.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
This is ordering a nice pizza and getting a Hawaiian pizza instead.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
Russia and indeed much of Eastern Europe generally is full of white nationalists, hence Trump and Le Pen and Salvini are so keen on Putin.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
It's more like offering the public a delicious celebration birthday cake covered in jolly candles - except that the health & safety bods insisted on tipping a bucket of sand over the cake to put the candles out first, just in case people burnt themselves. Or something.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
There are any number of ways of making a gesture against racism. But only one of them is associated with an organisation which wants to overthrow capitalism, defund the police, abolish the nuclear family, and a whole lot of other fairly unsavoury ideas and individuals. Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other concepts.
Taking the knee actually has it roots in Martin Luther Kings Christianity, and his “am I not your brother too” campaign.
Any linkage to Marxism and Anarchy is stuff of Trump and Farage and impossible to prove. Go ahead, attempt to prove it.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
The government is now telling me to avoid those who are not double jabbed ie my three children.
No. Just no.
I will not now go to London for a meeting I had planned on the 21st. Husband does not want me to take the risk given all the asthma bother I have been having. Fair enough. But being separated again from my children is a step too far.
Cops have been forced to apologise after shocking video footage showing officers 'joining in' with jubilant England fans singing a banned football chant outside a Walsall pub.
West Midlands Police said that they were 'sorry for any offence caused' after at least one officer was seen taking part in the 'disrespectful' Ten German Bombers song outside The Registry on Wednesday, July 7.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
Interesting that those thinking it is terrible to boo at taking the knee have no problem with booing members of the Government whenever they go to a sporting event.....
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 6 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Worrying numbers is not necessarily something to worry about, weirdly. Overwhelming numbers is. Can hospitals handle it is surely the question? If no, we need tougher measures. If yes, then restrictions are not the right response.
Excellent from Cyclefree, as always. One of the problems with recruitment and personal evaluation is this.
If you are on a jury you are entitled to come to a conclusion about someone's character, veracity and so on, and act on it. No-one is allowed to challenge you, question you or say you are wrong. You believe or disbelieve a defendant, or a police witness or whoever, just because you do. Call it sixth sense.
Outside the Crown Court that sixth sense is no longer allowed. So all the sorts of judgements Cyclefree wants to be made are difficult, because all your judgements can be challenged, derided as being evidence-free, discriminatory and so on. So people pull their punches, decline to rely on the sixth sense, and use the lack of an independent evidence base to justify decisions they know in their hearts are wrong.
Everyone, especially women, know people who are creeps. People who should not be near: child care, teaching, police duties, and lots of other things. Try proving it to the satisfaction of the HR department and the lawyers!
That personal evaluation, essential to criminal justice, but not permitted or dangerous in the bureaucratic HR world. That's part of the problem.
Indeed. In my line of work I have in the past worked as an agent of the Medical Secret Police, investigating a variety of villainy by my colleagues, financial, clinical or interpersonal. While we did collar a few, far more got away with a slap on the wrist.
This was often because assembling evidence to the point of firing someone was very difficult. Far too many times at some point proper procedure was not performed correctly, leaving the employing Trust at risk of an unfair dismissal case, which in the case of senior medical staff often runs to years of litigation and millions in costs.
Some reform of employment legislation to cap costs in such cases would help a lot at weeding out the bad apples.
Social media firms must end all anonymous accounts. If you want to spew vile abuse, you should be forced to do so publicly under your genuine identity, not while hiding behind the cloak of billionaire-backed secrecy....
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Well with that approach they will surely never return as by mid September when the schools reopen, almost 70% of adults will be double jabbed.
70% of the population by then, about 90% of adults. If the government stops fannying about then 12-17 year olds too which takes us to 75% of the population.
What's a really random factor is that third dose modelled efficacy gets us somewhere near 98% against symptomatic infection and that's with AZ unmodified for variants. The immune response is something like 8x better than 2x Pfizer 3 weeks apart and 12x better than 2x AZ 8 weeks apart.
A third vaccine dose for all adults from September to November could completely end this in the UK.
As a PB brains trust, what are we predicting will happen?
The papers, particularly the Tory ones, are very gloomy this evening, expecting anger from hospitality sector who will need to operate without furlough and some kind of passport scheme, the press also expecting some degree of restrictions brought in for Autumn and Winter, with government ready to blame us, the people, for not being cautious. Are they wrong? Are restrictions gone for good? Or what kind of date and kind of restriction likely to return?
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Let's see what Wednesday brings before calling a peak in cases. We're still seeing 30-40% week on week rises in cases, it's on a decay cycle but that tops out at about 50k on the current trend.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
There is a 16 day lag between cases and admissions. Cases are levelling off. Admissions and deaths will continue to rise (treble) for a couple of weeks before levelling off.
I thought the gap was a little shorter than that - like 8 to 10 days now.
My 16 day estimate is looking at lags in the published UK data but the data is very noisy.
Looking at the literature, the average time between exposure and symptoms is 5 days and between symptoms and hospitalisation is 7 days (3- 10 days) so 12 days from exposure to hospitalisation on average. But there is say a 2 day gap between exposure and reported case so 10 days is a reasonable estimate for lag between reportred cases and admissions to hospital. That's what I'll use from now on (rather than 16 days).
That leads to a doubling (rather than trebling) of admissions and deaths from now at the peak in a couple of weeks time.
Except that case numbers have been stuck around 30-35k for a week now. Now, it may well be that they plateau at 50k in a week's time (when schools start emptying), but really the most you can reasonably expect is a trebling of admissions. Which wouldn't be great... but which would hardly stretch the NHS either. And remember the chart is log scale. A trebling of admissions doesn't mean the line shoots up to the roof.
If anyone needs cheering up after last night's disappointment the 3 part Gold Rush documentary BBC about GB's transformation from Olympic laughing stock to major power is well worth a watch.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
There is a 16 day lag between cases and admissions. Cases are levelling off. Admissions and deaths will continue to rise (treble) for a couple of weeks before levelling off.
I thought the gap was a little shorter than that - like 8 to 10 days now.
My 16 day estimate is looking at lags in the published UK data but the data is very noisy.
Looking at the literature, the average time between exposure and symptoms is 5 days and between symptoms and hospitalisation is 7 days (3- 10 days) so 12 days from exposure to hospitalisation on average. But there is say a 2 day gap between exposure and reported case so 10 days is a reasonable estimate for lag between reportred cases and admissions to hospital. That's what I'll use from now on (rather than 16 days).
That leads to a doubling (rather than trebling) of admissions and deaths from now at the peak in a couple of weeks time.
Except that case numbers have been stuck around 30-35k for a week now. Now, it may well be that they plateau at 50k in a week's time (when schools start emptying), but really the most you can reasonably expect is a trebling of admissions. Which wouldn't be great... but which would hardly stretch the NHS either. And remember the chart is log scale. A trebling of admissions doesn't mean the line shoots up to the roof.
It would mean around 8k in hospital before those numbers drop. About 25% of the January peak. I'd guess that 85-90% of them will be unvaccinated by choice by then. It would come under the "unavoidable" category because no amount of delay would convince them to get vaccinated.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
This is ordering a nice pizza and getting a Hawaiian pizza instead.
But the important thing (for the PM) is that, whatever happens next, It's Not His Fault.
If this all goes a bit Dutch, it's the public's fault for not being responsible.
If businesses stay shut, it's their fault for being cowardly custards who didn't take the opportunity to re-open.
If the government is forced to introduce vaxports, it's because venues have failed to do it out of their own wisdom.
Almost makes one wonder why he wants to be PM if he hates taking decisions so much.
But no doubt his admirers will continue to admire him.
Talking of which, it's gants off in France;
French president Emmanuel Macron has announced a package of measures to help France control a fourth wave of Covid cases, including stricter border controls, the extension of the health passport for more everyday activities and making the vaccine compulsory for all healthcare workers...
Social media firms must end all anonymous accounts. If you want to spew vile abuse, you should be forced to do so publicly under your genuine identity, not while hiding behind the cloak of billionaire-backed secrecy....
Q: Thursday is 33rd anniversary of the release date of which film?
A: Die Hard
Ergo a film released in July isn't a Christmas film.
Good night.
Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did.
Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture. Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.
Future generations will read in wonder that Die Hard was ever thought not to be a Christmas movie and articles such as the one you’re reading now will be seen as nothing but a massive waste of everyone’s time. Imagine that!
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Are they not broadcasting 100K in order to hail success when exit peak nowhere near it?
Good header @Cyclefree and no doubt we will see more of Couzens history. I would not be surprised if other cases came to light.
On thing that I find with police, and I know a few, is that police spend a lot of time dealing with very unsavoury characters. That is their job, but it does create a warped sense of normality. What seems evil, just becomes routine, then becomes normality. I have seen it in other lines of work too.. People lose their moral compass if they do not get some time to decompress and re-orientate to what normal values are.
To an extent Internal Affairs Investigations needs robust support, but so does internal pastoral care and counselling. It cannot just be left to a dysfunctional canteen or locker room culture. It needs to be active and institutional interest in psychological and counselling support of those in the frontline. There needs to be an arm around the shoulder as well as the hairdryer, to use a football analogy.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, the percentage increase in seven day case rate metric has been in decline since June 28th. Now, there was also a previous peak on June 7th, which (at a guess) would appear to be related to the May 15th unlocking, so I suppose things might get worse again after next Monday.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Well with that approach they will surely never return as by mid September when the schools reopen, almost 70% of adults will be double jabbed.
70% of the population by then, about 90% of adults. If the government stops fannying about then 12-17 year olds too which takes us to 75% of the population.
What's a really random factor is that third dose modelled efficacy gets us somewhere near 98% against symptomatic infection and that's with AZ unmodified for variants. The immune response is something like 8x better than 2x Pfizer 3 weeks apart and 12x better than 2x AZ 8 weeks apart.
A third vaccine dose for all adults from September to November could completely end this in the UK.
As a PB brains trust, what are we predicting will happen?
The papers, particularly the Tory ones, are very gloomy this evening, expecting anger from hospitality sector who will need to operate without furlough and some kind of passport scheme, the press also expecting some degree of restrictions brought in for Autumn and Winter, with government ready to blame us, the people, for not being cautious. Are they wrong? Are restrictions gone for good? Or what kind of date and kind of restriction likely to return?
Think the very disappointing growth figures have come as something of a side swipe. Were expecting a roar of gratitude and an orgy of spending from the public. They got neither. And didn't win Batley. Really don't think they know what to do now. At all.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
There are any number of ways of making a gesture against racism. But only one of them is associated with an organisation which wants to overthrow capitalism, defund the police, abolish the nuclear family, and a whole lot of other fairly unsavoury ideas and individuals. Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other concepts.
Taking the knee actually has it roots in Martin Luther Kings Christianity, and his “am I not your brother too” campaign.
Any linkage to Marxism and Anarchy is stuff of Trump and Farage and impossible to prove. Go ahead, attempt to prove it.
I find it ludicrous that taking the knee somehow makes you a Marxist toytown revolutionary! I mean, did Marx himself ever take the knee? Did Lenin? Stalin?
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
There are any number of ways of making a gesture against racism. But only one of them is associated with an organisation which wants to overthrow capitalism, defund the police, abolish the nuclear family, and a whole lot of other fairly unsavoury ideas and individuals. Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other concepts.
Taking the knee actually has it roots in Martin Luther Kings Christianity, and his “am I not your brother too” campaign.
Any linkage to Marxism and Anarchy is stuff of Trump and Farage and impossible to prove. Go ahead, attempt to prove it.
I find it ludicrous that taking the knee somehow makes you a Marxist toytown revolutionary! I mean, did Marx himself ever take the knee? Did Lenin? Stalin?
Indeed, it's almost as if those who are against it are closet racists looking for some 'acceptable' hook on which to hang their opposition.
As an aside, Delta is really changing the willingness of people to get vaccinated. Israel, which seemed like it had topped out at 60-62% of the population with at least one dose, is now at 66% and the line is rising.
One can expect it to have a similar effect on other countries that see rising caseloads.
It is odd. And it so easy to game if you are a malign foreign actor, eg Russia
We've been discussing the mad "Russian" Scot-nat-o-bot, and her skill at seeming quasi plausible, to roil Unionists and devalue Nattery. How much simpler to just stoke racial grievance. You don't need an English-speaking brainaic in Novosibirsk to do that, you just need a GPT2-ish AI to endlessly create social media accounts and swamp the web
American discourse has been totally poisoned by this, both sides will not even speak to each other. We are next for targetting. It is obvious. So easy to do. Destroy a country with a few million tweets. Doddle Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
It gives a warm fuzzy feeling to think that most of the online racist abuse last night came from Russian bots. Easily solved that is really. And then I watched the videos from Wembley and listened to first hand accounts, including about your Corbyn follower mate. Hmmm. And there dissolves the warm fuzzy feeling.
Likewise. I've now seen enough videos to think Ugh
It is possible to believe these two thoughts at the same time: there is a problem with racism and thuggery in English football, and Taking The Knee actually makes it worse
A lot of the resentment I am seeing is: fuck these millionaires telling us we are racist, who cares, they lost, I might as well be racist
It is not a wholesome dynamic. Again, my guess is that all this has been easily and expertly stoked by outside actors
This is hardly new. Football fans have always been a source of embarrassment to the England team and, by extension, he nation as a whole. I never get any joy from watching us at football. Even in the darkest days of the 90s I have always gleaned considerably more pride in our cricket team and it’s fans. The rugby bunch are worthy but dull fan wise. But the football crowd…urgh…
Again, I’ve been to several England games and the crowd has been perfectly fine. I am as appalled as anyone about some of last night’s scenes but I’m concerned we are tarring all England fans with the same brush - while also implying that hooliganism is uniquely English.
I think the FA and police failed very badly to keep the violent hooligan element away from Wembley last night. There's nothing else to really say and both the FA and Met need to do a lot better next time, fans of the opposing side should never fear going to and England match in England, matter the occasion.
Agreed.
But was it possible to have a cordon further away from the ground you could only pass through with a ticket? That is the main thing missing that would have helped? I’ve been to New Wembley twice, I don’t think the environs support a wider cordon stopping ticketless getting right up to the gates.
Anyhoo, my return to the office has been delayed until mid September now.
If your employer is being that cautious then it may mean that things will carry on as they were until well into next year. One can well imagine that angst about Winter illnesses could begin to ramp up in earnest the second the schools go back.
Yeah, my employer have been fantastic, they made us WFH two weeks before the government did back in March 2020.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
Well with that approach they will surely never return as by mid September when the schools reopen, almost 70% of adults will be double jabbed.
70% of the population by then, about 90% of adults. If the government stops fannying about then 12-17 year olds too which takes us to 75% of the population.
What's a really random factor is that third dose modelled efficacy gets us somewhere near 98% against symptomatic infection and that's with AZ unmodified for variants. The immune response is something like 8x better than 2x Pfizer 3 weeks apart and 12x better than 2x AZ 8 weeks apart.
A third vaccine dose for all adults from September to November could completely end this in the UK.
As a PB brains trust, what are we predicting will happen?
The papers, particularly the Tory ones, are very gloomy this evening, expecting anger from hospitality sector who will need to operate without furlough and some kind of passport scheme, the press also expecting some degree of restrictions brought in for Autumn and Winter, with government ready to blame us, the people, for not being cautious. Are they wrong? Are restrictions gone for good? Or what kind of date and kind of restriction likely to return?
Think the very disappointing growth figures have come as something of a side swipe. Were expecting a roar of gratitude and an orgy of spending from the public. They got neither. And didn't win Batley. Really don't think they know what to do now. At all.
Strangely, when you put a lazy, clueless, dishonest, self-publicist in charge of the country things don't turn out well.
Was it that poor? They lost 1 list seat and held all their constituencies at Holyrood
Yes, that lost seat on the regional list put them below the parliamentary threshold of five seats to be recognised as a group, which means the party lost rights in Holyrood. They have lost representation on the business bureau, where parties decide on the business of the parliament for the week, and lost a guaranteed question at First Minister’s Questions, among other things.
Social media firms must end all anonymous accounts. If you want to spew vile abuse, you should be forced to do so publicly under your genuine identity, not while hiding behind the cloak of billionaire-backed secrecy....
Edit: He says posting (hopefully not vile abuse) under an anonymous account, though through habit rather than necessity
There are a lot of negatives to such a policy and trivial for those whose only goal is to spread hate to bypass.
I honestly don't know what the answer is and i would guess most social media companies have spent insane amounts of time thinking about possible solutions.
I guess part of the problem the Government have is that they feel under pressure to urge people to be cautious, but they really only want the very vulnerable to be cautious. Everyone else they want to go wild. Within reason they don't want to suppress the exit wave below its natural trajectory (which obviously they hope won't be too bad) because this would undermine the desire to avoid it being pushed into the winter. This is of course one of the problems with the school isolation problem as well - they would much rather all the kids get it now (unless they really have a secret plan to jab them all once the Pfizer supplies are secure, and it is only limitation on the latter that is preventing them doing it at present)
Was it that poor? They lost 1 list seat and held all their constituencies at Holyrood
Yes, that lost seat on the regional list put them below the parliamentary threshold of five seats to be recognised as a group, which means the party lost rights in Holyrood. They have lost representation on the business bureau, where parties decide on the business of the parliament for the week, and lost a guaranteed question at First Minister’s Questions, among other things.
My God, that's awful.
They lost a guaranteed question at an event no-one cares about.
Another good header @Cyclefree. I agree with all of this. It is sad that a key organisation such as the Met can be so rubbish at recognising what changes are required and fail to plan how to get there.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
But it is supporting Marxism. BLM is a vile Marxist organisation that seeks to sow racial hatred across the West, and it is working. As we see
Britain, to me, is now palpably more racist than it was, say, 5 years ago. America is probably much worse (dunno, haven't been there, but the polls say Yes)
In Marxist terms this may be a Result: you have to break down a society before you can reorder it. But for most this is a disaster. Meanwhile China and Russia are cheering it all on, and probably enabling it
How is it supporting Marxism. Just how does these footballers making a stance against prejudice somehow mean they are supporting Marxism. I don’t see it. I suspect it’s an excuse for some to condemn the gesture.
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
There are any number of ways of making a gesture against racism. But only one of them is associated with an organisation which wants to overthrow capitalism, defund the police, abolish the nuclear family, and a whole lot of other fairly unsavoury ideas and individuals. Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other concepts.
Taking the knee actually has it roots in Martin Luther Kings Christianity, and his “am I not your brother too” campaign.
Any linkage to Marxism and Anarchy is stuff of Trump and Farage and impossible to prove. Go ahead, attempt to prove it.
I find it ludicrous that taking the knee somehow makes you a Marxist toytown revolutionary! I mean, did Marx himself ever take the knee? Did Lenin? Stalin?
I agree. However, there is another angle on this, where I think I know what they are doing, like I said from US football from Martin Luther King and his supporters and to us, but is it amazingly clear, and if not, surely others can tell you what they think it’s all about, black power, anti fascism etc.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, the percentage increase in seven day case rate metric has been in decline since June 28th. Now, there was also a previous peak on June 7th, which (at a guess) would appear to be related to the May 15th unlocking, so I suppose things might get worse again after next Monday.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
I think that’s underplaying it.
The changes are significant easements.
It is no longer criminal to have seven plus people at a house party (amazing that it ever was).
You can now buy a pint from the bar.
Theatres, cinemas and sports stadiums are able to fill all their seats.
You don’t have to put a mask on when going to the loo in a restaurant.
You no longer need to observe a one-way system in buildings.
The idea that nothing will change is risible. Lots of the extremely irritating restrictions have been removed.
Was it that poor? They lost 1 list seat and held all their constituencies at Holyrood
Yes, that lost seat on the regional list put them below the parliamentary threshold of five seats to be recognised as a group, which means the party lost rights in Holyrood. They have lost representation on the business bureau, where parties decide on the business of the parliament for the week, and lost a guaranteed question at First Minister’s Questions, among other things.
My God, that's awful.
They lost a guaranteed question at an event no-one cares about.
Can it get any worse for them???
Such things matter to minor parties. It's a status thing.
Was it that poor? They lost 1 list seat and held all their constituencies at Holyrood
Yes, that lost seat on the regional list put them below the parliamentary threshold of five seats to be recognised as a group, which means the party lost rights in Holyrood. They have lost representation on the business bureau, where parties decide on the business of the parliament for the week, and lost a guaranteed question at First Minister’s Questions, among other things.
My God, that's awful.
They lost a guaranteed question at an event no-one cares about.
Can it get any worse for them???
FMQs is widely watched and reported in Scotland, although I can understand those disinterested in the affairs of our nation don’t tune in.
Was it that poor? They lost 1 list seat and held all their constituencies at Holyrood
Yes, that lost seat on the regional list put them below the parliamentary threshold of five seats to be recognised as a group, which means the party lost rights in Holyrood. They have lost representation on the business bureau, where parties decide on the business of the parliament for the week, and lost a guaranteed question at First Minister’s Questions, among other things.
My God, that's awful.
They lost a guaranteed question at an event no-one cares about.
Can it get any worse for them???
FMQs is widely watched and reported in Scotland, although I can understand those disinterested in the affairs of our nation don’t tune in.
Yes, like the LDs being relegated to 4th party at Westminster, it gets harder and harder to get noticed. Ed Davey doesn't get guaranteed questions, but the SNP do, so making it harder to rebuild.
I guess part of the problem the Government have is that they feel under pressure to urge people to be cautious, but they really only want the very vulnerable to be cautious. Everyone else they want to go wild. Within reason they don't want to suppress the exit wave below its natural trajectory (which obviously they hope won't be too bad) because this would undermine the desire to avoid it being pushed into the winter. This is of course one of the problems with the school isolation problem as well - they would much rather all the kids get it now (unless they really have a secret plan to jab them all once the Pfizer supplies are secure, and it is only limitation on the latter that is preventing them doing it at present)
It’s going to be 27c by Monday down south and this weekend will be glorious sunshine for many. I think people will shake off the glum of the football and very quickly start to enjoy their freedoms. I mean, are pubs going to enforce the rules this weekend for example? I suspect many will turn a blind eye. I got served at the bar yesterday- albeit while wearing a mask!
Good header @Cyclefree and no doubt we will see more of Couzens history. I would not be surprised if other cases came to light.
On thing that I find with police, and I know a few, is that police spend a lot of time dealing with very unsavoury characters. That is their job, but it does create a warped sense of normality. What seems evil, just becomes routine, then becomes normality. I have seen it in other lines of work too.. People lose their moral compass if they do not get some time to decompress and re-orientate to what normal values are.
To an extent Internal Affairs Investigations needs robust support, but so does internal pastoral care and counselling. It cannot just be left to a dysfunctional canteen or locker room culture. It needs to be active and institutional interest in psychological and counselling support of those in the frontline. There needs to be an arm around the shoulder as well as the hairdryer, to use a football analogy.
Agreed. That requires emotionally intelligent management, which is rarer than one would like.
John Sutherland's book "Crossing the Line" about the effect of police work is very good on this aspect.
In my own team - while we were rarely faced with the sorts of issues the police face - we did develop a necessarily caustic and cynical view and bonded closely because of it and the need to stick together. Every so often though (especially after long intense cases) I did make sure people got time out to go off and be normal again, outside normal holidays. And with some disturbing stuff, it was good to find supportive people at work one could trust when things got too much. You badly need a decompression activity to keep you sane and grounded.
It is odd. And it so easy to game if you are a malign foreign actor, eg Russia
We've been discussing the mad "Russian" Scot-nat-o-bot, and her skill at seeming quasi plausible, to roil Unionists and devalue Nattery. How much simpler to just stoke racial grievance. You don't need an English-speaking brainaic in Novosibirsk to do that, you just need a GPT2-ish AI to endlessly create social media accounts and swamp the web
American discourse has been totally poisoned by this, both sides will not even speak to each other. We are next for targetting. It is obvious. So easy to do. Destroy a country with a few million tweets. Doddle Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
It gives a warm fuzzy feeling to think that most of the online racist abuse last night came from Russian bots. Easily solved that is really. And then I watched the videos from Wembley and listened to first hand accounts, including about your Corbyn follower mate. Hmmm. And there dissolves the warm fuzzy feeling.
Likewise. I've now seen enough videos to think Ugh
It is possible to believe these two thoughts at the same time: there is a problem with racism and thuggery in English football, and Taking The Knee actually makes it worse
A lot of the resentment I am seeing is: fuck these millionaires telling us we are racist, who cares, they lost, I might as well be racist
It is not a wholesome dynamic. Again, my guess is that all this has been easily and expertly stoked by outside actors
This is hardly new. Football fans have always been a source of embarrassment to the England team and, by extension, he nation as a whole. I never get any joy from watching us at football. Even in the darkest days of the 90s I have always gleaned considerably more pride in our cricket team and it’s fans. The rugby bunch are worthy but dull fan wise. But the football crowd…urgh…
Again, I’ve been to several England games and the crowd has been perfectly fine. I am as appalled as anyone about some of last night’s scenes but I’m concerned we are tarring all England fans with the same brush - while also implying that hooliganism is uniquely English.
I think the FA and police failed very badly to keep the violent hooligan element away from Wembley last night. There's nothing else to really say and both the FA and Met need to do a lot better next time, fans of the opposing side should never fear going to and England match in England, matter the occasion.
Agreed.
But was it possible to have a cordon further away from the ground you could only pass through with a ticket? That is the main thing missing that would have helped? I’ve been to New Wembley twice, I don’t think the environs support a wider cordon stopping ticketless getting right up to the gates.
They were talking of this on 5Live earlier. Apparently there were two cordons. The first checked the LFT result and validated the ticket, thereby activating it. When that line collapsed, the validation process ceased, meaning those fans tickets didn't work on the second cordon, and the stewards couldn't validate the tickets, so even those with tickets couldn't get in.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, the percentage increase in seven day case rate metric has been in decline since June 28th. Now, there was also a previous peak on June 7th, which (at a guess) would appear to be related to the May 15th unlocking, so I suppose things might get worse again after next Monday.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
I think that’s underplaying it.
The changes are significant easements.
It is no longer criminal to have seven plus people at a house party (amazing that it ever was).
You can now buy a pint from the bar.
Theatres, cinemas and sports stadiums are able to fill all their seats.
You don’t have to put a mask on when going to the loo in a restaurant.
You no longer need to observe a one-way system in buildings.
The idea that nothing will change is risible. Lots of the extremely irritating restrictions have been removed.
I was thinking more along the lines of "things that will actually increase transmission rates, as distinct from Covid theatre." Not having to do the ridiculous mask to go to the toilet ceremony in a restaurant will be very welcome, but should make naff all difference to the Plague. Most shops have long since given up on the stupid one-way systems (and the ones that haven't, and I can think of a particular example which shall remain nameless, will probably keep theirs and will not be receiving my custom as a result.) The rules about socialising in private homes have, I would assume, been widely ignored for months.
The one other significant change that you've mentioned and I'd forgotten about might be full capacity in theatres and cinemas, although if such establishments keep insisting on masks then that's liable to dampen transmission potential in two ways: the effect of the masks themselves, and through reducing the numbers of patrons by putting off those who don't find the idea of being made to sit wearing a mask for several hours to be consistent with the notion of an enjoyable evening out.
Good header @Cyclefree and no doubt we will see more of Couzens history. I would not be surprised if other cases came to light.
On thing that I find with police, and I know a few, is that police spend a lot of time dealing with very unsavoury characters. That is their job, but it does create a warped sense of normality. What seems evil, just becomes routine, then becomes normality. I have seen it in other lines of work too.. People lose their moral compass if they do not get some time to decompress and re-orientate to what normal values are.
To an extent Internal Affairs Investigations needs robust support, but so does internal pastoral care and counselling. It cannot just be left to a dysfunctional canteen or locker room culture. It needs to be active and institutional interest in psychological and counselling support of those in the frontline. There needs to be an arm around the shoulder as well as the hairdryer, to use a football analogy.
Very fair Foxy.
I mentioned on last thread that here in Colchester last night my son witnessed what appeared to be Police over reaction in response to a yob verbally abusing them one to many times.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Let's see what Wednesday brings before calling a peak in cases. We're still seeing 30-40% week on week rises in cases, it's on a decay cycle but that tops out at about 50k on the current trend.
Case growth has bounced around this wave. Can't be sure we're at the peak till we err are...
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
This is ordering a nice pizza and getting a Hawaiian pizza instead.
But the important thing (for the PM) is that, whatever happens next, It's Not His Fault.
If this all goes a bit Dutch, it's the public's fault for not being responsible.
If businesses stay shut, it's their fault for being cowardly custards who didn't take the opportunity to re-open.
If the government is forced to introduce vaxports, it's because venues have failed to do it out of their own wisdom.
Almost makes one wonder why he wants to be PM if he hates taking decisions so much.
But no doubt his admirers will continue to admire him.
Talking of which, it's gants off in France;
French president Emmanuel Macron has announced a package of measures to help France control a fourth wave of Covid cases, including stricter border controls, the extension of the health passport for more everyday activities and making the vaccine compulsory for all healthcare workers...
Shortly after the speech, there were about 20 000 vaccination appointments being made every minute.
I don’t think you can call them vaxports - sounds like an airport for vacuum cleaners. What about vaxpass? Vaxtics?
“Hey, want a vaxpass for the gig?” “Can’t, I took load of lemon to bunk off school this week.”
A law is surely either a law or it ain’t anything. Abolishing law, but saying behave with caution, you have full freedom, but be careful means what exactly? Something undefined really, rather like use your common sense could mean one thing to one, another thing to another.
I agree there is a sense Freedom Day has actually been a shift of responsibility from Whitehall and Parliament to Business. Shall we explore one example, transport company’s, like buses, wishing to protect their drivers, does the government want them to impose “mask on this bus” policy’s? But how is that even achievable now with passengers arguing it’s not law, Boris says it’s optional?
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, the percentage increase in seven day case rate metric has been in decline since June 28th. Now, there was also a previous peak on June 7th, which (at a guess) would appear to be related to the May 15th unlocking, so I suppose things might get worse again after next Monday.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
I think that’s underplaying it.
The changes are significant easements.
It is no longer criminal to have seven plus people at a house party (amazing that it ever was).
You can now buy a pint from the bar.
Theatres, cinemas and sports stadiums are able to fill all their seats.
You don’t have to put a mask on when going to the loo in a restaurant.
You no longer need to observe a one-way system in buildings.
The idea that nothing will change is risible. Lots of the extremely irritating restrictions have been removed.
I was thinking more along the lines of "things that will actually increase transmission rates, as distinct from Covid theatre." Not having to do the ridiculous mask to go to the toilet ceremony in a restaurant will be very welcome, but should make naff all difference to the Plague. Most shops have long since given up on the stupid one-way systems (and the ones that haven't, and I can think of a particular example which shall remain nameless, will probably keep theirs and will not be receiving my custom as a result.) The rules about socialising in private homes have, I would assume, been widely ignored for months.
The one other significant change that you've mentioned and I'd forgotten about might be full capacity in theatres and cinemas, although if such establishments keep insisting on masks then that's liable to dampen transmission potential in two ways: the effect of the masks themselves, and through reducing the numbers of patrons by putting off those who don't find the idea of being made to sit wearing a mask for several hours to be consistent with the notion of an enjoyable evening out.
Ah fair enough, apologies, I see your point. Thanks for the polite reply too.
Covid, Boris and Cakeism. Is it just me who watched The Saj in the House, and Boris in Downing Street, and was reminded that Boris's policy on cake is pro-having and pro-eating?
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
I'mnot sure I agree. This is neither having cake nor eating it.
This is ordering a nice pizza and getting a Hawaiian pizza instead.
But the important thing (for the PM) is that, whatever happens next, It's Not His Fault.
If this all goes a bit Dutch, it's the public's fault for not being responsible.
If businesses stay shut, it's their fault for being cowardly custards who didn't take the opportunity to re-open.
If the government is forced to introduce vaxports, it's because venues have failed to do it out of their own wisdom.
Almost makes one wonder why he wants to be PM if he hates taking decisions so much.
But no doubt his admirers will continue to admire him.
Talking of which, it's gants off in France;
French president Emmanuel Macron has announced a package of measures to help France control a fourth wave of Covid cases, including stricter border controls, the extension of the health passport for more everyday activities and making the vaccine compulsory for all healthcare workers...
Shortly after the speech, there were about 20 000 vaccination appointments being made every minute.
I don’t think you can call them vaxports - sounds like an airport for vacuum cleaners. What about vaxpass? Vaxtics?
“Hey, want a vaxpass for the gig?” “Can’t, I took load of lemon to bunk off school this week.”
A law is surely either a law or it ain’t anything. Abolishing law, but saying behave with caution, you have full freedom, but be careful means what exactly? Something undefined really, rather like use you common sense could mean one thing to one, another thing to another.
I agree there is a sense Freedom Day has actually been a shift of responsibility from Whitehall and Parliament to Business. Shall we explore one example, transport company’s, like buses, wishing to protect their drivers, does the government want them to impose “mask on this bus” policy’s? But how is that even achievable now with passengers arguing it’s not law, Boris says it’s optional?
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Let's see what Wednesday brings before calling a peak in cases. We're still seeing 30-40% week on week rises in cases, it's on a decay cycle but that tops out at about 50k on the current trend.
Case growth has bounced around this wave. Can't be sure we're at the peak till we err are...
16.1k -> 228.2k cases/week
At the moment it feels a bit of a race between London growth and out of London decline.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Looking at the gov.uk dashboard, the percentage increase in seven day case rate metric has been in decline since June 28th. Now, there was also a previous peak on June 7th, which (at a guess) would appear to be related to the May 15th unlocking, so I suppose things might get worse again after next Monday.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
I think that’s underplaying it.
The changes are significant easements.
It is no longer criminal to have seven plus people at a house party (amazing that it ever was).
You can now buy a pint from the bar.
Theatres, cinemas and sports stadiums are able to fill all their seats.
You don’t have to put a mask on when going to the loo in a restaurant.
You no longer need to observe a one-way system in buildings.
The idea that nothing will change is risible. Lots of the extremely irritating restrictions have been removed.
I was thinking more along the lines of "things that will actually increase transmission rates, as distinct from Covid theatre." Not having to do the ridiculous mask to go to the toilet ceremony in a restaurant will be very welcome, but should make naff all difference to the Plague. Most shops have long since given up on the stupid one-way systems (and the ones that haven't, and I can think of a particular example which shall remain nameless, will probably keep theirs and will not be receiving my custom as a result.) The rules about socialising in private homes have, I would assume, been widely ignored for months.
The one other significant change that you've mentioned and I'd forgotten about might be full capacity in theatres and cinemas, although if such establishments keep insisting on masks then that's liable to dampen transmission potential in two ways: the effect of the masks themselves, and through reducing the numbers of patrons by putting off those who don't find the idea of being made to sit wearing a mask for several hours to be consistent with the notion of an enjoyable evening out.
Ah fair enough, apologies, I see your point. Thanks for the polite reply too.
No worries. I've been reading this site for a while, and have learned to appreciate that the one thing not needed around here is more biting off of heads
Every time I hear a Labour MP talking about something, they sound like someone who doesn't really like people in general very much, particularly people in this country. I'm not sure that's a good position for a political party to adopt.
I thought it was going to be about "freedom day"....
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases. Roughly doubling every 11 days. V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next? https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1414658909239918595/photo/1
Ummm
I'm not sure that's unsettling at all. Admissions seem to lag cases by a very short period, and cases are flattening off right now.
Unless you think that admissions will continue to rise, uncoupled from flattening (or declining) case numbers. Which would be an odd attitude.
The government are forecasting an explosion in cases. 100k new cases a day says Javid. Which means worrying numbers in hospital does it not.
Good for them.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Numbers have been stuck on 30-35K for the last 7 days. It would be good if this proves to be the peak.
Let's see what Wednesday brings before calling a peak in cases. We're still seeing 30-40% week on week rises in cases, it's on a decay cycle but that tops out at about 50k on the current trend.
Case growth has bounced around this wave. Can't be sure we're at the peak till we err are...
16.1k -> 228.2k cases/week
At the moment it feels a bit of a race between London growth and out of London decline.
WATCH: A reminder what Home Secretary said to me last month around taking the knee
Priti Patel said those involved are participating in “gesture politics” and when asked if England fans had a right to boo said “that's a choice for them, quite frankly”
But in those terms she’s right. They do have a right to boo. Should they so wish. No laws are being broken. It’s just a bit daft to boo it and claim it’s supporting Marxism.
I wouldn’t boo what is a well meaning gesture against a pervasive evil in society and if it is gesture politics it is a good gesture.
Only a fascist would agree that they don’t have a right to boo. The whole circus was sadly completely avoidable. Supposedly it wasn’t political but you’ve got politicians interfering in football and footballers interfering in politics. I suspect Mings and Patel won’t be in their respective positions in a couple of years thankfully. One is not a very good Home Sec and one is not a very good international centre back.
Yet plenty of people across the political,and celebrity spectrum are doing just that and trying to deny the right of fans to boo.
Christ your victim complex is off the charts.
Nobody is denying the right of fans to “boo”, they’re just calling them dickheads. Rightly.
Comments
And yet – and forgive me for not being familiar with the case – it is not clear that the two are causally connected. If Couzens had been discovered earlier and thrown out of the police, as he clearly should have been, or not recruited in the first place, how would this have saved Sarah Everard's life?
Couzens kidnapped, raped and murdered Sarah Everard but not in his role as a police officer. This was not like, for instance, tasering and kicking Dalian Atkinson to death or shooting Jean Charles de Menezes for running for the tube, or shooting Harry Stanley for carrying a chair leg, where the assailants' police standing was crucial.
Moving on, yes, the clues were there, as they often are. But we need to be careful that we do not rule out the rehabilitation of offenders. That man was convicted of flashing, or these days, that woman sent an offensive tweet. We have in the recent past had actors and reporters who in past lives had served time for murder: I'm not sure that could happen now.
But yes, on the big picture, there do seem to be systemic problems with the Met and other police forces. Lessons, one suspects, will not be learned.
https://www.murdermap.co.uk/statistics/london-murders-2021-latest-total/
A recent study from Public Health England, which looked at more than 1 million people in at-risk groups, found that people who are immunosuppressed are significantly better protected from symptomatic infection following the second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.*
We are continuing to work to better understand who is less well protected by the COVID-19 vaccines, and there are various studies underway that are looking at this"
* This was conducted when the Kent variant was dominant.
I think they are worried that our crotchfruit will cause another wave when they return to school this year just like last year.
It might be worthwhile taking extra precautions if:
You're waiting for a vaccination to take effect
You're in an area with a high level of infection
You're taking part in an activity with a higher level of risk
You have medical issues with make you more vulnerable
Everyone has their individual circumstances and need to make their own decisions.
Yet plenty of people across the political,and celebrity spectrum are doing just that and trying to deny the right of fans to boo.
If in doubt don't go out.
If you have to ask, wear a mask.
Take care y'all goodnight 😷
Taking the knee supports anti racism not the small fringe BLM political party.
Coupled with the message head back to the office but WFH as much as you can.
The impression is that the Prime Minister desperately wants the pandemic to be over so life can return to normal and he can lift the restrictions and declare freedom. But also that he and the government are worried that the pandemic is not over and will probably get worse before it gets better, and that's if it gets better at all.
So after next week we don't have to wear masks, but we should. There will be no vaccine passports, unless the industry does not create vaccine passports, in which case the government may do.
This is not freedom; this is not caution; it is cakeism.
Ideally, I'd have liked them to make some sort of anti-racism gesture which wasn't associated with all these other
concepts.
What's a really random factor is that third dose modelled efficacy gets us somewhere near 98% against symptomatic infection and that's with AZ unmodified for variants. The immune response is something like 8x better than 2x Pfizer 3 weeks apart and 12x better than 2x AZ 8 weeks apart.
A third vaccine dose for all adults from September to November could completely end this in the UK.
California State University Offering iPad Air, Apple Pencil, and Keyboard to 35,000 Incoming Students
https://www.macrumors.com/2021/07/12/california-state-university-ipad-air-for-students/
Would at least have hoped for a Pro.
However I don't think they are comparable. Our leaders no matter what party are disliked by a significant portion of the population so booing is not unlikely, but who on earth thinks it is ok to boo a stand against racism? Racists?
Looking at the literature, the average time between exposure and symptoms is 5 days and between symptoms and hospitalisation is 7 days (3- 10 days) so 12 days from exposure to hospitalisation on average. But there is say a 2 day gap between exposure and reported case so 10 days is a reasonable estimate for lag between reportred cases and admissions to hospital. That's what I'll use from now on (rather than 16 days).
That leads to a doubling (rather than trebling) of admissions and deaths from now at the peak in a couple of weeks time.
Would help us get a handle on it.
Having never seen one, how would I know if I was being presented with a genuine warrant card? On the TV they are always presented and accepted after a cursory glance.
Of course not hiring him does not stop him offending elsewhere. But it is hardly an argument in favour of permitting poor vetting.
Second, knowing about past actions is essential. Depending on what sector you are in it may be acceptable to take people who have offended in the past but have learnt from this and improved. This is particularly the case when dealing with silly things done when young etc. That involves using one's judgment and assessing people properly rather than simply following a procedure.
We are afraid to do so. We don't use our judgment, which is surely the mark of being an adult. But judgment is like a muscle - if you don't use it every day, it won't be there when you need it. We need to get people to think intelligently about what they are doing, to use judgment, to take carefully assessed risks and to learn from what they do well and what they get wrong. And we need to value people who behave like this. Not behave like scared automatons, blindly following procedure with no modicum of common-sense.
How do we get from here to there? Damned if I know. It's what I have tried to do my entire professional life. It's what I taught my team to do. It's what I tell those who come to my talks to do. There are probably lots of us doing the same. But we are not put in charge or rewarded or praised. Look at those who are. That's what society values.
I am ashamed we could not beat him - we should have put up a much better opponent.
A western culture war suits Putin just fine
Any linkage to Marxism and Anarchy is stuff of Trump and Farage and impossible to prove. Go ahead, attempt to prove it.
Case growth is slowing, ZOE reports an absolute decline in the number of unvaccinated people with Covid, more and more people are double-vaccinated, and schools are about to go on holiday. (If nothing else, the last will dramatically lower the number of people *testing* positive for CV19.)
It may be that cases reach 100,000 per day, but my money is against it.
Not so much, they'd reached 175 murders by the end of May. We're going to have to work REALLY hard if we're going to catch up with them.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/willie-rennie-quit-scottish-lib-24518972
No. Just no.
I will not now go to London for a meeting I had planned on the 21st. Husband does not want me to take the risk given all the asthma bother I have been having. Fair enough. But being separated again from my children is a step too far.
Cops have been forced to apologise after shocking video footage showing officers 'joining in' with jubilant England fans singing a banned football chant outside a Walsall pub.
West Midlands Police said that they were 'sorry for any offence caused' after at least one officer was seen taking part in the 'disrespectful' Ten German Bombers song outside The Registry on Wednesday, July 7.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/apology-after-walsall-cops-filmed-21017934
Boo racists
This was often because assembling evidence to the point of firing someone was very difficult. Far too many times at some point proper procedure was not performed correctly, leaving the employing Trust at risk of an unfair dismissal case, which in the case of senior medical staff often runs to years of litigation and millions in costs.
Some reform of employment legislation to cap costs in such cases would help a lot at weeding out the bad apples.
Q: Thursday is 33rd anniversary of the release date of which film?
A: Die Hard
Ergo a film released in July isn't a Christmas film.
Good night.
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1414661241327525895?s=19
Well i suppose he practices what he preaches....
The papers, particularly the Tory ones, are very gloomy this evening, expecting anger from hospitality sector who will need to operate without furlough and some kind of passport scheme, the press also expecting some degree of restrictions brought in for Autumn and Winter, with government ready to blame us, the people, for not being cautious. Are they wrong? Are restrictions gone for good? Or what kind of date and kind of restriction likely to return?
The long range weather forecast is settled warm weather for the UK for the next month.
If this all goes a bit Dutch, it's the public's fault for not being responsible.
If businesses stay shut, it's their fault for being cowardly custards who didn't take the opportunity to re-open.
If the government is forced to introduce vaxports, it's because venues have failed to do it out of their own wisdom.
Almost makes one wonder why he wants to be PM if he hates taking decisions so much.
But no doubt his admirers will continue to admire him.
Talking of which, it's gants off in France;
French president Emmanuel Macron has announced a package of measures to help France control a fourth wave of Covid cases, including stricter border controls, the extension of the health passport for more everyday activities and making the vaccine compulsory for all healthcare workers...
https://www.thelocal.fr/20210712/macron-to-lay-out-measures-to-control-fourth-wave-of-covid-cases-in-france/
Shortly after the speech, there were about 20 000 vaccination appointments being made every minute.
Edit: He says posting (hopefully not vile abuse) under an anonymous account, though through habit rather than necessity
Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture. Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.
Future generations will read in wonder that Die Hard was ever thought not to be a Christmas movie and articles such as the one you’re reading now will be seen as nothing but a massive waste of everyone’s time. Imagine that!
https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/
On thing that I find with police, and I know a few, is that police spend a lot of time dealing with very unsavoury characters. That is their job, but it does create a warped sense of normality. What seems evil, just becomes routine, then becomes normality. I have seen it in other lines of work too.. People lose their moral compass if they do not get some time to decompress and re-orientate to what normal values are.
To an extent Internal Affairs Investigations needs robust support, but so does internal pastoral care and counselling. It cannot just be left to a dysfunctional canteen or locker room culture. It needs to be active and institutional interest in psychological and counselling support of those in the frontline. There needs to be an arm around the shoulder as well as the hairdryer, to use a football analogy.
OTOH, there's not really much happening next Monday save for the re-opening of the nightclubs. People who aren't feeling nervous of social contact have most likely already been getting together in groups of forbidden size for a while, those who still are nervous won't be in any hurry to change much about what they're doing, and one gathers the impression from the mood music that there's not going to be some massive waves of bacchant orgies breaking out in the restaurants and public houses either.
We also have to take into account the effect of the school Summer holidays. The cases mightn't get so bad as the Government fears, and in any event there's still nothing from the early hotspots to suggest that severe pressure will come to bear on the hospitals.
Really don't think they know what to do now. At all.
One can expect it to have a similar effect on other countries that see rising caseloads.
Who'd have guessed, eh?
I honestly don't know what the answer is and i would guess most social media companies have spent insane amounts of time thinking about possible solutions.
They lost a guaranteed question at an event no-one cares about.
Can it get any worse for them???
https://time.com/4955717/trump-protests-mlk-martin-luther-king-kneeling/
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Am_I_not_a_man_and_a_brother?_LCCN2008661312.jpg
The changes are significant easements.
It is no longer criminal to have seven plus people at a house party (amazing that it ever was).
You can now buy a pint from the bar.
Theatres, cinemas and sports stadiums are able to fill all their seats.
You don’t have to put a mask on when going to the loo in a restaurant.
You no longer need to observe a one-way system in buildings.
The idea that nothing will change is risible. Lots of the extremely irritating restrictions have been removed.
John Sutherland's book "Crossing the Line" about the effect of police work is very good on this aspect.
In my own team - while we were rarely faced with the sorts of issues the police face - we did develop a necessarily caustic and cynical view and bonded closely because of it and the need to stick together. Every so often though (especially after long intense cases) I did make sure people got time out to go off and be normal again, outside normal holidays. And with some disturbing stuff, it was good to find supportive people at work one could trust when things got too much. You badly need a decompression activity to keep you sane and grounded.
The one other significant change that you've mentioned and I'd forgotten about might be full capacity in theatres and cinemas, although if such establishments keep insisting on masks then that's liable to dampen transmission potential in two ways: the effect of the masks themselves, and through reducing the numbers of patrons by putting off those who don't find the idea of being made to sit wearing a mask for several hours to be consistent with the notion of an enjoyable evening out.
I mentioned on last thread that here in Colchester last night my son witnessed what appeared to be Police over reaction in response to a yob verbally abusing them one to many times.
16.1k -> 228.2k cases/week
“Hey, want a vaxpass for the gig?”
“Can’t, I took load of lemon to bunk off school this week.”
A law is surely either a law or it ain’t anything. Abolishing law, but saying behave with caution, you have full freedom, but be careful means what exactly? Something undefined really, rather like use your common sense could mean one thing to one, another thing to another.
I agree there is a sense Freedom Day has actually been a shift of responsibility from Whitehall and Parliament to Business. Shall we explore one example, transport company’s, like buses, wishing to protect their drivers, does the government want them to impose “mask on this bus” policy’s? But how is that even achievable now with passengers arguing it’s not law, Boris says it’s optional?
Nobody is denying the right of fans to “boo”, they’re just calling them dickheads. Rightly.