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Opinium finds 50% saying COVID restrictions should continue beyond July 19th – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 10 in General
Opinium finds 50% saying COVID restrictions should continue beyond July 19th – politicalbetting.com

Half (50%) of UK adults think the lifting of coronavirus related restrictions should be postponed beyond July 19th – compared with 31% who think they should go ahead as planned.In particular, most are in favour of retaining current restrictions on night clubs and mass events pic.twitter.com/2MYZixltHl

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    First
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    edited July 10
    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.
  • NestacresNestacres Posts: 14
    So let's let the music industry, festivals, theatres, hospitality, nightclubs all go to the wall so loads of people who refused the vaccine will get mildly ill.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    The Dutch have just shuttered their nightclubs, again. I predict we will do the same, or they will never open
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568
    Ignore them and just get on with it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    The other 50%^ are on PB..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    "Bad trend—Netherlands reports a near vertical >800% increase in new #COVID19 cases in 1 week. Greece Flag of Greece and Spain Flag of Spain nearly matching that surge.
    @WHO
    now reports over 2 dozen countries with “near vertical” sharp rises in cases—mostly #DeltaVariant. Pandemic “Act 2” has begun."

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1413931514954489860?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 10
    More than 30 people can't gather outdoors.....i didn't even know that was a restriction given what you see out and about.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    From the last thread.....

    If you take the the seven day average of cases and compare it to the seven day average *yesterday* and express the difference as percentage up/down

    image

    Regionally

    image

    Swallows and summers, but it does look as if the rate of increase is slowing...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Leon said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    The Dutch have just shuttered their nightclubs, again. I predict we will do the same, or they will never open
    My friend helps organise the Infest festival, she is so worried, it is the overpromise/underdeliver aspect from the PM that is winding everyone up.

    A lot of the artists from overseas don't want to come over and quarantine for the better part of a month for a festival that lasts 3 days.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122
    Leon said:

    "Bad trend—Netherlands reports a near vertical >800% increase in new #COVID19 cases in 1 week. Greece Flag of Greece and Spain Flag of Spain nearly matching that surge.
    @WHO
    now reports over 2 dozen countries with “near vertical” sharp rises in cases—mostly #DeltaVariant. Pandemic “Act 2” has begun."

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1413931514954489860?s=20

    Time to return home from pox-central and hunker down in Penarth then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 10
    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to allowing more than 30 people outside.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    PB's squad of Steve Bakers won't like that!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 10
    The papers report that SAGE have been shown revised models* which the real life data is overshooting, so I imagine Boris is going to do a partial U-turn.

    * The ones from 4 weeks ago were obviously miles off, but the new ones from 2 weeks ago were predicting hospitalisations still in the high 200s for now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    From the last thread.....

    If you take the the seven day average of cases and compare it to the seven day average *yesterday* and express the difference as percentage up/down

    image

    Regionally

    image

    Swallows and summers, but it does look as if the rate of increase is slowing...

    I think there's still quite a few places which will have their own delta based wave, London especially. I'm not sure this is over just yet but at the same time those rises will come just as it recedes in the north and as schools close so those waves might not be so bad.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    On the other hand...


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 16,601
    MaxPB said:

    From the last thread.....

    If you take the the seven day average of cases and compare it to the seven day average *yesterday* and express the difference as percentage up/down

    image

    Regionally

    image

    Swallows and summers, but it does look as if the rate of increase is slowing...
    I think there's still quite a few places which will have their own delta based wave, London especially. I'm not sure this is over just yet but at the same time those rises will come just as it recedes in the north and as schools close so those waves might not be so bad.

    If you look at the regional graph, it seems as if the regions are "syncing up"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    Leon said:

    "Bad trend—Netherlands reports a near vertical >800% increase in new #COVID19 cases in 1 week. Greece Flag of Greece and Spain Flag of Spain nearly matching that surge.
    @WHO
    now reports over 2 dozen countries with “near vertical” sharp rises in cases—mostly #DeltaVariant. Pandemic “Act 2” has begun."

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1413931514954489860?s=20

    Is Eric back from Austria yet?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 1,847
    MattW said:

    Brillo's convinced, as willing to be outraged as PB's finest.


    That's called a trollback?
    Fake bots or not, there’s clearly appetite to smear Scottish Independence movement by linking it to Historical Fascism.

    Don’t do it. If people smell unfair stitch up it will make them even more fervent.

    We have to be careful about falling into lazy misconceptions when talking about cuddling up to Fascism in the 1930s and trying to relate it to today. Sure the whole British Establishment may have seemed comfortable with Hitlers Germany right up to and into the War - but were they being played? Did they fear Stalin and Communism more? As Ace argued yesterday, you have to pick one side or the other. Also if you were unbothered by anti semitism, why wouldn’t you want peace between Britain and Nazi Germany? Much like the French Aristocracy, who sided with Petain in 1940 got their anti Semitism from their Catholicism, at the same time there was not any leader in Nazi Germany more anti-Semitic than Martin Luther.

    That was then, this is now. In politics don’t spin history to smear people - stay in the present, and relevance of arguments to present.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    FPT
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Brillo's convinced, as willing to be outraged as PB's finest.


    It’s insane how willing people are to be taken in by what took me 5 minutes tops was a Russian Bot. And the thing is, it’s success is being played out in real time on this board and on Twitter.
    I am persuaded - by you - that this is a fake

    But at first glance, I believed it, because it is beautifully judged. See the 700 Scot Nat and Alba supporters who follow her. They have also been fooled

    So, the question is: who, how and why?

    Is it some computer algorithm in Moscow, or it some smart Yoon guy in the Borders having a laugh at the Nats' expense? or maybe it is MI6 black ops?!
    I don’t think that anyone in this country would write about anti-socialist leanings of the TV show “Pesky Blinders” or advise someone to “do learnings about racism”. I think it’s someone in a building in St Petersburg.
    I dunno. Maybe it's a triple bluff.

    Ms Calista knows her UK/Scots politics extremely well, and is highly articulate in English. Would "she" really make a dumb mistake like "Pesky Blinders" or "leanings about racism"?

    I am doubtful. So my guess is this is an MI6 dude pretending to be a Russian bot pretending to be a mad Nat, to discredit the Nat cause with plausible deniability if unmasked



    She makes the occasional rudimentary error that even other Nats pick her up on. For example -


    You see, that is highly literate English writing, and it sounds like an educated and engaged mother-tongue English speaker. I do not believe the same person would then write "learnings about racism"

    So either there are several people operating this account - explaining its rather uneven quality - or it is someone having a very sophisticated laugh
    The English is very good but the idea that a Scot would put in their bio that they are a devolution expert but then admit to learning about Scottish devo off Twitter is laughable. I still say a group effort in Russia.
    Don't you think a Scot who worked for a British agency would be clever enough to play a triple game? I doubt that's who it is, but the idea isn't laughable.

    As for the Russians, they've been out in my sister's street in Dundee again, raising first German, then Ukrainian, then Danish, and now Italian flags. The Spetsnaz must be very well informed, because they chose gardens in which Yes banners appeared in 2014 and SNP ones flap during every election campaign.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    The Dutch have just shuttered their nightclubs, again. I predict we will do the same, or they will never open
    My friend helps organise the Infest festival, she is so worried, it is the overpromise/underdeliver aspect from the PM that is winding everyone up.

    A lot of the artists from overseas don't want to come over and quarantine for the better part of a month for a festival that lasts 3 days.
    I blame Boris for many things (close the Indian border you Etonian twat) however I am not sure I blame him for this. He tries to be optimistic, to give people a sense that - OK it's horrible, but the end is in sight. And he gives timescales because you must, or it seems like you are lying

    Imagine if he didn't. Imagine if he just said "This inhuman lockdown will continue indefinitely, life is on hold for as long as it takes, I can't give any dates for easing, maybe no one will have sex ever again"

    OK a hardcore of PB autists would cheer, but lots of people would snap

    As a politician, especially a leader, you HAVE to offer hope
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898
    edited July 10

    More than 30 people can't gather outdoors.....i didn't even know that was a restriction given what you see out and about.

    The large crowds (well over 30) at Wembley, Wimbledon and other places are part of the government's Events Research Programme.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-about-the-events-research-programme-erp-paving-the-way-for-larger-audiences-to-attend-sport-theatre-and-gigs-safely-this-summer/guidance-on-the-events-research-programme

    ETA what a URL!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    Ipso s Mori was online only. Was opinium? This really really matters given the inherent bias against going out and doing stuff in online type people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 32,646

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    There’s starting to get worried, that a large group of the young unvaccinated are going to go completely nuts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018
    edited July 10
    Tell them that not opening up will put 6p in the £ on their tax for the next 5 years.

    Then ask them again.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Sandpit said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    There’s starting to get worried, that a large group of the young unvaccinated are going to go completely nuts.
    Well they are going to do it on holiday regardless of restrictions here....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    This is what happens when you weaponise fear, which the government admitted doing last year.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    If you’re serious about protecting the unvaxxed you need to go backwards, reintroduce restrictions, 19 July isn’t going to make that much difference
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,361

    Sandpit said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    There’s starting to get worried, that a large group of the young unvaccinated are going to go completely nuts.
    Well they are going to do it on holiday regardless of restrictions here....
    We need some two week long festivals.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    But unlocking in August pushes the exit wave into October which leads to an NHS disaster. People who haven't had the chance to get two doses are under 40 and not at much individual risk anyway. And they could go and scream at the JCVI to remove the arbitrary 8 week gap so people can get their second dose 3 or 4 weeks after the first.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 40,502

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Personally I wouldn’t fuck an antivaxxer. Too high a risk they might have Covid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Personally I wouldn’t fuck an antivaxxer. Too high a risk they might have Covid.
    Only with a mask and not face to face i seemed to remember was the advice in certain European countries....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    "A significant minority of British people revel in authoritarianism for its own sake
    Polls suggest people are indifferent to freedoms they happen not to want to exercise themselves
    Daniel Hannan" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/10/dont-just-accept-authoritarianism-demand/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,305
    Pre - vaccination, I was about as risk averse as they come when it comes to Covid. I hadn't been in a supermarket since early March last year, and only used outside tables during Rishi's eat out superspreader campaign.

    Now I'm fully jabbed, I am prepared to return to life as normal. Trains, shops, bars and eateries. It is the vaccine that is protecting me now, not a face mask or the nonsense of 1m+ in indoor settings.

    Of course, I'll milk WFH as long as possible. And avoid doing shit I don't want to do wherever possible by citing Covid.

    Am I atypical? I suspect not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Those cohorts that represent those age groups who have been those who died from Covid in previous spikes have almost entirely been given the option to be jabbed. At no cost. Twice.

    Those cohorts that represent those age groups who have been those who were hospitalized from Covid in previous spikes have almost entirely been given the option to be jabbed. At no cost. Twice.

    That is as much of an obligation as the Government owes to a society that has suffered eye-watering losses and restrictions. Frankly, those who think we are locking down weeks too early can stay home under a self-imposed lockdown until they feel the time is right. The rest will just knowingly take the risk and get on with life.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763

    Pre - vaccination, I was about as risk averse as they come when it comes to Covid. I hadn't been in a supermarket since early March last year, and only used outside tables during Rishi's eat out superspreader campaign.

    Now I'm fully jabbed, I am prepared to return to life as normal. Trains, shops, bars and eateries. It is the vaccine that is protecting me now, not a face mask or the nonsense of 1m+ in indoor settings.

    Of course, I'll milk WFH as long as possible. And avoid doing shit I don't want to do wherever possible by citing Covid.

    Am I atypical? I suspect not.

    I am roughly similar...am going to be giving mass gathering a miss though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,018

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Personally I wouldn’t fuck an antivaxxer. Too high a risk they might have Covid.
    Only with a mask and not face to face i seemed to remember was the advice in certain European countries....
    Bugger that....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    Naughty bot



  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Personally I wouldn’t fuck an antivaxxer. Too high a risk they might have Covid.
    What about a vegan?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,380

    More than 30 people can't gather outdoors.....i didn't even know that was a restriction given what you see out and about.

    The large crowds (well over 30) at Wembley, Wimbledon and other places are part of the government's Events Research Programme.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-about-the-events-research-programme-erp-paving-the-way-for-larger-audiences-to-attend-sport-theatre-and-gigs-safely-this-summer/guidance-on-the-events-research-programme

    ETA what a URL!
    Search Engine Optimization
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    But unlocking in August pushes the exit wave into October which leads to an NHS disaster. People who haven't had the chance to get two doses are under 40 and not at much individual risk anyway. And they could go and scream at the JCVI to remove the arbitrary 8 week gap so people can get their second dose 3 or 4 weeks after the first.
    I know but for the medics it is a case there only being no good options, just least bad ones.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 320
    Alea iacta est ("the die has been cast") said Julius Caesar on January 10, 49 B.C when he led his army across the Rubicon river in Northern Italy.

    I don't see any major change to the government's strategy for some time. Currently, there are fewer than 3,000 people with COVID in hospital, compared to over 39,000 in January. Furthermore, the rate of increase in cases is reducing. Even if the government makes changes to the speed of the unlocking, the same basic process will continue because of the lack of any alternative.

    Another similar analogy is to the escape of the Israelites from Egypt led by Moses, with the parting of the Red Sea. I can only assume that SAGE, if it had been around at the time, would have required data to confirm that the Red Sea could be parted safely before recommending the escape of the Israelites. It is time for us to have faith in the power of the vaccines, which have been at least been scientifically proven to be effective.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    Odd that a Dane is moaning about English football violence


    "Denmark in shock after a footballer’s flat is set on fire

    "The 22-year-old Jens Stage’s home was attacked following his transfer from AGF to FC Copenhagen"

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/27/hooliganism-fears-rise-in-denmark-after-a-footballers-flat-is-set-on-fire-jens-stage
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    Meanwhile


    "Denmark hooligans organise insane 20 vs 20 'forest fights' and under-19 competition

    "As Denmark prepare to face Wales on Saturday in Euro 2020, we look back at an incredible report of Danish hooligans meeting for insane "forest fights". They even had youth divisions"

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/denmark-hooligans-organise-insane-20-24403451

    Oh
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    fox327 said:

    Alea iacta est ("the die has been cast") said Julius Caesar on January 10, 49 B.C when he led his army across the Rubicon river in Northern Italy.

    I don't see any major change to the government's strategy for some time. Currently, there are fewer than 3,000 people with COVID in hospital, compared to over 39,000 in January. Furthermore, the rate of increase in cases is reducing. Even if the government makes changes to the speed of the unlocking, the same basic process will continue because of the lack of any alternative.

    Another similar analogy is to the escape of the Israelites from Egypt led by Moses, with the parting of the Red Sea. I can only assume that SAGE, if it had been around at the time, would have required data to confirm that the Red Sea could be parted safely before recommending the escape of the Israelites. It is time for us to have faith in the power of the vaccines, which have been at least been scientifically proven to be effective.

    I didn't know that Mr Johnson had been found in a basket on the banks of the River Nile.
  • Anecdotal for sure, but everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who I have spoken to about relaxing restrictions will not be impressed if they are delayed again. People (everyone I know) have now had enough, and the gov will lose considerable good will if this is delayed again.
    PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.

    I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    Fine, provided you accept that Hillsborough and heysel are therefore part of the beauty.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    Not sure what the Economist's interest is. The report was in the Standard and elsewhere a couple of days ago. But yes, it is shameful. But no, it is not typical. That's why it is news.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,555
    IshmaelZ said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    Ipso s Mori was online only. Was opinium? This really really matters given the inherent bias against going out and doing stuff in online type people.
    Yes - nearly all polls are now, I think? Not sure about the inherent bias, though - online probably also biases to younger age groups. But the mixed polling results suggest that it depends how you ask the question. Surprised how many people hate nightclubs though!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    Personally I wouldn’t fuck an antivaxxer. Too high a risk they might have Covid.
    What about a vegan?
    Well, they've for sure not been eating bats or pangolins.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    How can a DANE not understand that crowd violence is implicit in the dynamic of football? That this is a significant reason it is so hugely appealing to men, especially young men? That football is war by other means?

    How can he not understand that if you take your small child to a highly emotional World Cup semi final, you might get into trouble? And see some ugly things?

    I mean, Denmark is the country that produced one of the most famous football hooligan videos in history. This:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8r4Kaw1wDA
  • glwglw Posts: 7,570

    Pre - vaccination, I was about as risk averse as they come when it comes to Covid. I hadn't been in a supermarket since early March last year, and only used outside tables during Rishi's eat out superspreader campaign.

    Now I'm fully jabbed, I am prepared to return to life as normal. Trains, shops, bars and eateries. It is the vaccine that is protecting me now, not a face mask or the nonsense of 1m+ in indoor settings.

    Of course, I'll milk WFH as long as possible. And avoid doing shit I don't want to do wherever possible by citing Covid.

    Am I atypical? I suspect not.

    Yes we can't lock down forever, and so if the vaccines aren't enough we need to accept that sooner of later covid will work its way through the population. We can't avoid the harm done by covid, we can only choose the timing. It's grim, but pretending we can simply hide until it all goes away is delusional.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    Not sure.

    This is a bit more subtle than that. People have been beaten into submission for so long that they're not about to escape the kennels even when the rescue party has flung wide the door.

    Think Theon Greyjoy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898

    Anecdotal for sure, but everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who I have spoken to about relaxing restrictions will not be impressed if they are delayed again. People (everyone I know) have now had enough, and the gov will lose considerable good will if this is delayed again.
    PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.

    I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.

    People mainly mix with (and even live near) others who lead similar lives and hold similar views. That's why we are surprised that the wrong party wins an election, and that many are more cautious or more enthusiastic about opening up.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    But unlocking in August pushes the exit wave into October which leads to an NHS disaster. People who haven't had the chance to get two doses are under 40 and not at much individual risk anyway. And they could go and scream at the JCVI to remove the arbitrary 8 week gap so people can get their second dose 3 or 4 weeks after the first.
    I know but for the medics it is a case there only being no good options, just least bad ones.
    And the trade-off is "when do you want the peak" vs. "getting more vaccines out there". And there are still an awful lot of second doses which the government had decided not to do yet because not the 8 week rule.

    There's a plausible (amateur but solid in the past) go at modelling here;

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321?s=19

    Key conclusion:

    So I think the best I can say is: it’s unclear whether a delay helps or not. It’s likely to reduce peak NHS loads, but it could well (depending on what else happens) make things worse overall in terms of total infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

    …but we’re already committed to a summer wave of some form (unless we’re willing to lockdown hard right now), and delay is not confidently expected to materially reduce the total number of infections over the next several months. So again, why wait?


    It looks like there's no great option from here. If there was one (and even this is uncertain) it was at Step 3, or in the decisions made about vaccines in the Spring.

    Bet the PM doesn't say any of that though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050
    edited July 10
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    Fine, provided you accept that Hillsborough and heysel are therefore part of the beauty.
    No, Hillsborough and Heysel were failures of policing, crowd organisation and of stadium upkeep, combined

    You cannot extract the wild passion from football crowds, without losing something definitive; the reason a good footie atmos is uniquely exciting is that it is always on the brink of turning into real violence

    I was once a football hooligan, for about 2 weeks (I was laughably bad, too much of a pussy); but a friend of mine is the real deal, a sophisticated professional man with a fine career - who goes to games for the violence (which is these days well organised and kept out of sight, if possible)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,347
    edited July 10
    Leon said:

    How can a DANE not understand that crowd violence is implicit in the dynamic of football? That this is a significant reason it is so hugely appealing to men, especially young men? That football is war by other means?

    How can he not understand that if you take your small child to a highly emotional World Cup semi final, you might get into trouble? And see some ugly things?

    I mean, Denmark is the country that produced one of the most famous football hooligan videos in history. This:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8r4Kaw1wDA

    I don't recall this being a problem during the 1966 World Cup tournament.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898
    Leon said:

    How can a DANE not understand that crowd violence is implicit in the dynamic of football? That this is a significant reason it is so hugely appealing to men, especially young men? That football is war by other means?

    How can he not understand that if you take your small child to a highly emotional World Cup semi final, you might get into trouble? And see some ugly things?

    I mean, Denmark is the country that produced one of the most famous football hooligan videos in history. This:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8r4Kaw1wDA

    Stop trolling. One guy thumped someone. Last week another guy put his arm round Chris Whitty. This is not organised football violence.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,538
    gealbhan said:

    MattW said:

    Brillo's convinced, as willing to be outraged as PB's finest.


    That's called a trollback?
    Fake bots or not, there’s clearly appetite to smear Scottish Independence movement by linking it to Historical Fascism.

    Don’t do it. If people smell unfair stitch up it will make them even more fervent.

    We have to be careful about falling into lazy misconceptions when talking about cuddling up to Fascism in the 1930s and trying to relate it to today. Sure the whole British Establishment may have seemed comfortable with Hitlers Germany right up to and into the War - but were they being played? Did they fear Stalin and Communism more? As Ace argued yesterday, you have to pick one side or the other. Also if you were unbothered by anti semitism, why wouldn’t you want peace between Britain and Nazi Germany? Much like the French Aristocracy, who sided with Petain in 1940 got their anti Semitism from their Catholicism, at the same time there was not any leader in Nazi Germany more anti-Semitic than Martin Luther.

    That was then, this is now. In politics don’t spin history to smear people - stay in the present, and relevance of arguments to present.
    Interestingly there weren't many more fervent anti semites during the Nazi era than Henry Ford. I wonder if there are any prominent statues of him hanging around?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,790

    IshmaelZ said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    Ipso s Mori was online only. Was opinium? This really really matters given the inherent bias against going out and doing stuff in online type people.
    Yes - nearly all polls are now, I think? Not sure about the inherent bias, though - online probably also biases to younger age groups. But the mixed polling results suggest that it depends how you ask the question. Surprised how many people hate nightclubs though!
    I think that only the Ipsos MORI political monitor still sticks to using the phone. Internet polling is so cheap and fast and Opinium got the last election precisely right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    Anecdotal for sure, but everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who I have spoken to about relaxing restrictions will not be impressed if they are delayed again. People (everyone I know) have now had enough, and the gov will lose considerable good will if this is delayed again.
    PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.

    I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.

    Same place the very accurate polling about Hartlepool/the locals/devolved assembly elections came from.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    How can a DANE not understand that crowd violence is implicit in the dynamic of football? That this is a significant reason it is so hugely appealing to men, especially young men? That football is war by other means?

    How can he not understand that if you take your small child to a highly emotional World Cup semi final, you might get into trouble? And see some ugly things?

    I mean, Denmark is the country that produced one of the most famous football hooligan videos in history. This:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8r4Kaw1wDA

    Stop trolling. One guy thumped someone. Last week another guy put his arm round Chris Whitty. This is not organised football violence.
    That's my point! What happened to this dude is trivial. Football produces violent emotions, that's WHY it is so addictive, so globally popular. People get killed over football.

    If I took my young child to a massively important match, with swirling emotions, I would warn them that it could be nasty. This journalist is expecting attendance at a football match to be like an afternoon visit to the National Gallery

    It's a shame these wankers behaved like wankers. It is very much not a surprise
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 4,012
    Leon said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    The Dutch have just shuttered their nightclubs, again. I predict we will do the same, or they will never open
    You’re getting a bit long in the tooth for nightclubs Sean. Nothing worse than the creepy middle aged guy trying to hang with the kidz.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739

    IshmaelZ said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    Ipso s Mori was online only. Was opinium? This really really matters given the inherent bias against going out and doing stuff in online type people.
    Yes - nearly all polls are now, I think? Not sure about the inherent bias, though - online probably also biases to younger age groups. But the mixed polling results suggest that it depends how you ask the question. Surprised how many people hate nightclubs though!
    I think that only the Ipsos MORI political monitor still sticks to using the phone. Internet polling is so cheap and fast and Opinium got the last election precisely right.
    Elections are one thing, propensity to want to go out in the evening is quite another.

    I note npmp (early 70s I think) telling me (last week of my 50s) online, that online is skewed to the young. It isn't, but it is skewed to the introverted.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    But unlocking in August pushes the exit wave into October which leads to an NHS disaster. People who haven't had the chance to get two doses are under 40 and not at much individual risk anyway. And they could go and scream at the JCVI to remove the arbitrary 8 week gap so people can get their second dose 3 or 4 weeks after the first.
    I know but for the medics it is a case there only being no good options, just least bad ones.
    And the trade-off is "when do you want the peak" vs. "getting more vaccines out there". And there are still an awful lot of second doses which the government had decided not to do yet because not the 8 week rule.

    There's a plausible (amateur but solid in the past) go at modelling here;

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321?s=19

    Key conclusion:

    So I think the best I can say is: it’s unclear whether a delay helps or not. It’s likely to reduce peak NHS loads, but it could well (depending on what else happens) make things worse overall in terms of total infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

    …but we’re already committed to a summer wave of some form (unless we’re willing to lockdown hard right now), and delay is not confidently expected to materially reduce the total number of infections over the next several months. So again, why wait?


    It looks like there's no great option from here. If there was one (and even this is uncertain) it was at Step 3, or in the decisions made about vaccines in the Spring.

    Bet the PM doesn't say any of that though.
    The message last Monday should have been

    'Look everyone be careful, don't be stupid, people yet to be double jabbed should exercise the most caution, once nearly all of us are vaccinated then we can go back to the old ways.'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    The PM is a populist, he will listen to the public and row back on freedom day.

    Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    The Dutch have just shuttered their nightclubs, again. I predict we will do the same, or they will never open
    You’re getting a bit long in the tooth for nightclubs Sean. Nothing worse than the creepy middle aged guy trying to hang with the kidz.
    I shall let you into a secret, Stuart, I haven't been to a nightclub in nearly 30 years. Drinking clubs, gambling clubs, crack houses, yes. Not nightclubs. I never liked them. I could never see the point. You can't chat someone up as the music is too loud, the dancing is naff and weird, WTF.

    Nightclubs only made sense when Ecstasy arrived, and you got loved up and you danced in a frenzy for 5 hours on a meth-amphetamine high. That was fun. For about 3 years

    However, I will defend the right of the misguided young to visit these things, if they insist
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 3,936
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    Fine, provided you accept that Hillsborough and heysel are therefore part of the beauty.
    There is nothing beautiful about football, from the racist chants, the violence, both on and off the field, and the people who go.to.it. .I loathe everything to do with football, the diving the cheating the abuse of officials, the overpaid primadonnas, the inability of officials to run the game properly.. FIFA.....the list of negatives is endless.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,810
    Leon said:

    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering

    I was just listening to Dr John Campbell. If I heard correctly, then in today's video he said that missing school isn't that important, as kids will catch up. (apologies if I didn't hear that correctly).

    A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.

    Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.

    I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    I see Marxism is winning.


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 4,012

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    Thuggery is king in England. The Brexit revolution has only just started. They’ll be at the guillotine stage soon.
  • Anecdotal for sure, but everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who I have spoken to about relaxing restrictions will not be impressed if they are delayed again. People (everyone I know) have now had enough, and the gov will lose considerable good will if this is delayed again.
    PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.

    I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.

    People mainly mix with (and even live near) others who lead similar lives and hold similar views. That's why we are surprised that the wrong party wins an election, and that many are more cautious or more enthusiastic about opening up.
    Maybe, but this includes parents on school pick-up etc.
    The question then is: who on earth are the 50% who want us to continue with the restrictions?

    People are also fed up with wearing masks - shop workers etc have had enough - the heat (or cold) makes wearing them for long periods unpleasant. I have noticed that there are more people disregarding the wearing of masks - and the enforcement is not there anymore. If I see someone not wearing a mask (with no exemption lanyard) my immediate reaction is , ‘oh, they are not wearing a mask’ then a shrug of the shoulders & carry on, as really, I don’t give a shit anymore, and think, well next week they will be optional anyways. I am sure I am not alone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    There is no justification for a heatwave sweeping into Death Valley and killing all the lichen, however the clue is in the name, Death Valley

    Football is a man's sport and induces wild, masculine emotions. Et voila

    The cluelessness is apparent in the guy's report:

    "At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?"

    ANSWER: because they were looking for a punch-up. Because they like to fight. Because it is not just about scoring 2 goals and applauding. It is because you are the enemy: for a night. It is because their masculinity is vindicated by triumph, and humiliated by disaster. See any Old Firm game since Time Began
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    Leon said:

    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering

    I was just listening to Dr John Campbell. If I heard correctly, then in today's video he said that missing school isn't that important, as kids will catch up. (apologies if I didn't hear that correctly).

    A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.

    Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.

    I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
    I would hate being a student who was due to sit their GCSEs and A Levels in 2020/21 and in the next few years.

    Those are the ones I really worry about. It'll impact their lives, their choice of universities etc.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898
    edited July 10
    Paging @ydoethur. You're doing it wrong. Dominic Sandbrook says so in the Telegraph.

    The way we teach children history is all wrong – here's how to fix it
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/way-teach-children-history-wrong-fix/

    Interestingly, Sandbrook is plugging two books he has written. One on the Second World War and another on Henry VIII's wives.

    And that imo is what is wrong with history teaching: it is reduced to Tudors and Nazis.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    An interview with Sajid Javid just dropped on the Telegraph website. With the announcement on Monday certainly no hints of backtracking in there.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/10/hospital-waiting-lists-could-top-13-million-months-warns-sajid/#comment
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021
    Anyway, I’m going to spend the night obsessively hunting Russian Bots posing as Scottish Nationalists. Enjoy the game those who are interested - and have a lovely day those who are not!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    Thuggery is king in England. The Brexit revolution has only just started. They’ll be at the guillotine stage soon.
    Some traditional scenes of peaceful Scottish football support, so unlike "English thuggery":


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5hL6UbstyE
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,898

    Anecdotal for sure, but everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who I have spoken to about relaxing restrictions will not be impressed if they are delayed again. People (everyone I know) have now had enough, and the gov will lose considerable good will if this is delayed again.
    PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.

    I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.

    People mainly mix with (and even live near) others who lead similar lives and hold similar views. That's why we are surprised that the wrong party wins an election, and that many are more cautious or more enthusiastic about opening up.
    Maybe, but this includes parents on school pick-up etc.
    The question then is: who on earth are the 50% who want us to continue with the restrictions?

    People are also fed up with wearing masks - shop workers etc have had enough - the heat (or cold) makes wearing them for long periods unpleasant. I have noticed that there are more people disregarding the wearing of masks - and the enforcement is not there anymore. If I see someone not wearing a mask (with no exemption lanyard) my immediate reaction is , ‘oh, they are not wearing a mask’ then a shrug of the shoulders & carry on, as really, I don’t give a shit anymore, and think, well next week they will be optional anyways. I am sure I am not alone.
    But on the other hand, lots of people wear masks to walk down the road, which has never been required.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,021

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    Thuggery is king in England. The Brexit revolution has only just started. They’ll be at the guillotine stage soon.
    We’re playing a nation that launches burning Vespas from stands onto opposing fans tomorrow. We’ve some way to go to reach that level.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,810

    Leon said:

    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering

    I was just listening to Dr John Campbell. If I heard correctly, then in today's video he said that missing school isn't that important, as kids will catch up. (apologies if I didn't hear that correctly).

    A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.

    Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.

    I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
    I would hate being a student who was due to sit their GCSEs and A Levels in 2020/21 and in the next few years.

    Those are the ones I really worry about. It'll impact their lives, their choice of universities etc.
    I think that's very true. Two of my nieces are in exactly that situation. I think they'll do okay, but it certainly hasn't been easy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Leon said:

    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering

    I was just listening to Dr John Campbell. If I heard correctly, then in today's video he said that missing school isn't that important, as kids will catch up. (apologies if I didn't hear that correctly).

    A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.

    Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.

    I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
    I would hate being a student who was due to sit their GCSEs and A Levels in 2020/21 and in the next few years.

    Those are the ones I really worry about. It'll impact their lives, their choice of universities etc.
    These are my daughters, and it really troubles me: the GCSE generation

    However I feel even sadder for the students who are missing out on the best - or, at least, some of the most important years of their lives. UNIVERSITY. A wondrous, mind-expanding launch onto a new social stage, a chance to meet smart beautiful young people from all over the world - and to fuck them. To have wild political debates into the dawn. To take drugs in derelict houses, then wake up and discuss Aquinas

    Instead they get dusty online seminars and a guide to socially distanced toothbrushing

    It is genuinely tragic for people aged 18-23
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,207
    MaxPB said:

    From the last thread.....

    If you take the the seven day average of cases and compare it to the seven day average *yesterday* and express the difference as percentage up/down

    image

    Regionally

    image

    Swallows and summers, but it does look as if the rate of increase is slowing...
    I think there's still quite a few places which will have their own delta based wave, London especially. I'm not sure this is over just yet but at the same time those rises will come just as it recedes in the north and as schools close so those waves might not be so bad.

    From the number of large stag and hen parties pouring into, quaffing and revelling all over Newcastle (aka Covid HQ), I wouldn't be surprised to see a royal seeding elsewhere soon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 10
    Like racism at the football, hooliganism still exists in the England, but it is a shadow of what it was like in the 80s.

    As we saw at the last world cup and the away games in the euro qualifiers, British hooligans are well out of practice these days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,518
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    There is no justification for a heatwave sweeping into Death Valley and killing all the lichen, however the clue is in the name, Death Valley

    Football is a man's sport and induces wild, masculine emotions. Et voila

    The cluelessness is apparent in the guy's report:

    "At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?"

    ANSWER: because they were looking for a punch-up. Because they like to fight. Because it is not just about scoring 2 goals and applauding. It is because you are the enemy: for a night. It is because their masculinity is vindicated by triumph, and humiliated by disaster. See any Old Firm game since Time Began
    You're defending mindless violence and thuggery @Leon. Just stop and think about that for a minute.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Anecdata

    My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids

    This is not an education. These children are suffering

    I was just listening to Dr John Campbell. If I heard correctly, then in today's video he said that missing school isn't that important, as kids will catch up. (apologies if I didn't hear that correctly).

    A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.

    Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.

    I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
    I would hate being a student who was due to sit their GCSEs and A Levels in 2020/21 and in the next few years.

    Those are the ones I really worry about. It'll impact their lives, their choice of universities etc.
    These are my daughters, and it really troubles me: the GCSE generation

    However I feel even sadder for the students who are missing out on the best - or, at least, some of the most important years of their lives. UNIVERSITY. A wondrous, mind-expanding launch onto a new social stage, a chance to meet smart beautiful young people from all over the world - and to fuck them. To have wild political debates into the dawn. To take drugs in derelict houses, then wake up and discuss Aquinas

    Instead they get dusty online seminars and a guide to socially distanced toothbrushing

    It is genuinely tragic for people aged 18-23
    Yup, it was at university where I really developed my social skills, got to meet people who became my deepest and best friends.

    We shared some crazy moments like playing rugby in the aisles of a Tesco using a pack of kitchen roll as the ball, stupid shit that no one else would understand but they were our memories.

    Or my legendary dance moves in the gay and 80s bars.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,122
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Report from the Economist.

    https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country

    Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.

    I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?

    Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.

    Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.

    At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?


    Yawn. Football is visceral and tribal. It just is. The ugliness is part of the beauty
    A silly post, like your other two on the subject.

    There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.

    Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
    There is no justification for a heatwave sweeping into Death Valley and killing all the lichen, however the clue is in the name, Death Valley

    Football is a man's sport and induces wild, masculine emotions. Et voila

    The cluelessness is apparent in the guy's report:

    "At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?"

    ANSWER: because they were looking for a punch-up. Because they like to fight. Because it is not just about scoring 2 goals and applauding. It is because you are the enemy: for a night. It is because their masculinity is vindicated by triumph, and humiliated by disaster. See any Old Firm game since Time Began
    You have fallen down one of your literary rabbit holes again.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 8,766
    DougSeal said:

    An interview with Sajid Javid just dropped on the Telegraph website. With the announcement on Monday certainly no hints of backtracking in there.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/10/hospital-waiting-lists-could-top-13-million-months-warns-sajid/#comment

    That 13 million looks like the extreme end of a model, and Sajid seems to be a fopdoodle to be emphasising it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    O/T

    Nana Akua on GB News is an excellent presenter simply because she tries to be positive, instead of the relentless doom and gloom you get on Sky News and BBC News.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be interested to know what the eggheads say are the risks / added infection of the various restrictions.

    No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to 50 people outside.

    Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said this week that we may not get back to normal until next spring and is privately said to be very concerned that people will not take to heart the need to carry on with precautions after legal restrictions are lifted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
    What do these people f*cking expect?

    Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions for other people.

    This can't go on forever.
    This is the revenge of the nerds who had no friends and couldn't get laid at uni forcing their antisocial incel lifestyle onto the rest of us.
    I cannot speak for Chris Whitty but I think the worry among the medical profession is that we're lifting the restrictions a few weeks early, before everyone who wants to can be double jabbed.

    After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
    But unlocking in August pushes the exit wave into October which leads to an NHS disaster. People who haven't had the chance to get two doses are under 40 and not at much individual risk anyway. And they could go and scream at the JCVI to remove the arbitrary 8 week gap so people can get their second dose 3 or 4 weeks after the first.
    I know but for the medics it is a case there only being no good options, just least bad ones.
    And the trade-off is "when do you want the peak" vs. "getting more vaccines out there". And there are still an awful lot of second doses which the government had decided not to do yet because not the 8 week rule.

    There's a plausible (amateur but solid in the past) go at modelling here;

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321?s=19

    Key conclusion:

    So I think the best I can say is: it’s unclear whether a delay helps or not. It’s likely to reduce peak NHS loads, but it could well (depending on what else happens) make things worse overall in terms of total infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

    …but we’re already committed to a summer wave of some form (unless we’re willing to lockdown hard right now), and delay is not confidently expected to materially reduce the total number of infections over the next several months. So again, why wait?


    It looks like there's no great option from here. If there was one (and even this is uncertain) it was at Step 3, or in the decisions made about vaccines in the Spring.

    Bet the PM doesn't say any of that though.
    The message last Monday should have been

    'Look everyone be careful, don't be stupid, people yet to be double jabbed should exercise the most caution, once nearly all of us are vaccinated then we can go back to the old ways.'
    But also- if you have been double jabbed, be considerate of those who haven't yet been. They might be young, or they might be unable to have the vaccine themselves. We're still all in this together.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,518

    Like racism at the football, hooliganism still exists in the England, but it is a shadow of what it was like in the 80s.

    As we saw at the last world cup and the away games in the euro qualifiers, British hooligans are well out of practice these days.

    Wasn't there a theory, presumably unproven, that the growth of violence in the 70s and 80s was linked to lead in petrol, and that once unleaded fuel came in football hooliganism disappated?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 9,050

    Like racism at the football, hooliganism still exists in the England, but it is a shadow of what it was like in the 80s.

    Yes indeed. It is also (see my earlier comment) highly organised now. So Firms meet for a punch up in specified places, or pubs, and the coppers never see it, and the public is distanced. They evade the law, and sanction, this way

    Hooliganism also seems highly cognate with urban decay and social change. It was at its peak in the UK in the 70s, then it moved to Italy, Spain, now it is Eastern European and Turkish, and expands in the 3rd world, eg South Africa, Morocco


    https://www.africanews.com/2018/04/25/south-africa-football-violence-major-facts-of-kaizer-chiefs-stadium-riot//


    https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/01/17/moroccan-police-arrest-13-football-hooligans/

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