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Opinium finds 50% saying COVID restrictions should continue beyond July 19th – politicalbetting.com
Opinium finds 50% saying COVID restrictions should continue beyond July 19th – politicalbetting.com
Half (50%) of UK adults think the lifting of coronavirus related restrictions should be postponed beyond July 19th – compared with 31% who think they should go ahead as planned.In particular, most are in favour of retaining current restrictions on night clubs and mass events pic.twitter.com/2MYZixltHl
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Ipsos MORI and now Opinium say the PM is wrong on this.
Vox populi, vox Dei.
@WHO
now reports over 2 dozen countries with “near vertical” sharp rises in cases—mostly #DeltaVariant. Pandemic “Act 2” has begun."
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1413931514954489860?s=20
If you take the the seven day average of cases and compare it to the seven day average *yesterday* and express the difference as percentage up/down
Regionally
Swallows and summers, but it does look as if the rate of increase is slowing...
A lot of the artists from overseas don't want to come over and quarantine for the better part of a month for a festival that lasts 3 days.
No Masks in enclosed spaces where you will for a long time e.g. public transportation you would think is a totally different scale of risk to allowing more than 30 people outside.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/englands-nervous-scientists-know-covid-will-not-vanish-on-july-19-rxx27r2nd
* The ones from 4 weeks ago were obviously miles off, but the new ones from 2 weeks ago were predicting hospitalisations still in the high 200s for now.
I think there's still quite a few places which will have their own delta based wave, London especially. I'm not sure this is over just yet but at the same time those rises will come just as it recedes in the north and as schools close so those waves might not be so bad.
Humans are social creatures and Covid restrictions are anti-human in nature. People who support "indefinite" restrictions essentially mean they support indefinite restrictions >>for other people<<.
This can't go on forever.
If you look at the regional graph, it seems as if the regions are "syncing up"
Don’t do it. If people smell unfair stitch up it will make them even more fervent.
We have to be careful about falling into lazy misconceptions when talking about cuddling up to Fascism in the 1930s and trying to relate it to today. Sure the whole British Establishment may have seemed comfortable with Hitlers Germany right up to and into the War - but were they being played? Did they fear Stalin and Communism more? As Ace argued yesterday, you have to pick one side or the other. Also if you were unbothered by anti semitism, why wouldn’t you want peace between Britain and Nazi Germany? Much like the French Aristocracy, who sided with Petain in 1940 got their anti Semitism from their Catholicism, at the same time there was not any leader in Nazi Germany more anti-Semitic than Martin Luther.
That was then, this is now. In politics don’t spin history to smear people - stay in the present, and relevance of arguments to present.
As for the Russians, they've been out in my sister's street in Dundee again, raising first German, then Ukrainian, then Danish, and now Italian flags. The Spetsnaz must be very well informed, because they chose gardens in which Yes banners appeared in 2014 and SNP ones flap during every election campaign.
Imagine if he didn't. Imagine if he just said "This inhuman lockdown will continue indefinitely, life is on hold for as long as it takes, I can't give any dates for easing, maybe no one will have sex ever again"
OK a hardcore of PB autists would cheer, but lots of people would snap
As a politician, especially a leader, you HAVE to offer hope
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-about-the-events-research-programme-erp-paving-the-way-for-larger-audiences-to-attend-sport-theatre-and-gigs-safely-this-summer/guidance-on-the-events-research-programme
ETA what a URL!
After August it will be pretty much just the antivaxxers left unvaccinated and fuck 'em.
Then ask them again.....
The Government's current approach is correct. People who are frightened enough will shuffle about everywhere in masks and quiver in fear every time someone else gets within six feet of them. Nobody else cares, and won't follow any rules unless forced. At least half the population has had enough. Besides which, it remains the case that (a) we can't afford to keep this going forever, and (b) it's better that the exit wave happens now than in the Winter.
My older daughter's school in North London is missing "40 teachers" who are all isolating, and hundreds of kids
This is not an education. These children are suffering
Polls suggest people are indifferent to freedoms they happen not to want to exercise themselves
Daniel Hannan" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/10/dont-just-accept-authoritarianism-demand/
Now I'm fully jabbed, I am prepared to return to life as normal. Trains, shops, bars and eateries. It is the vaccine that is protecting me now, not a face mask or the nonsense of 1m+ in indoor settings.
Of course, I'll milk WFH as long as possible. And avoid doing shit I don't want to do wherever possible by citing Covid.
Am I atypical? I suspect not.
Those cohorts that represent those age groups who have been those who were hospitalized from Covid in previous spikes have almost entirely been given the option to be jabbed. At no cost. Twice.
That is as much of an obligation as the Government owes to a society that has suffered eye-watering losses and restrictions. Frankly, those who think we are locking down weeks too early can stay home under a self-imposed lockdown until they feel the time is right. The rest will just knowingly take the risk and get on with life.
https://www.economist.com/diary/2021/07/09/a-night-to-forget-the-english-fans-that-embarrass-their-country
Five minutes from home, our bus hit a roundabout blocked by dancing and cheering fans, and a flatbed lorry on which more were dancing. Ugh, I thought, but also, hey, I’d be dancing too. A long pause. So close. Then someone outside spotted my shirt: “Hey, Denmark!” He pointed for his friends, and in an instant a dozen or so pressed up against the glass and began beating on the windows. Middle fingers, jeers, masturbation hand-gestures, oral sex mimed at my wife. And, of course, the famous English two-fingered salute. Victory in reverse.
I gritted my teeth through a smile and a wave. It only escalated, so when the bus driver opened the door, I went over to it and waved some more, visibly annoyed but saying “congratulations, your team played the better game, you won.” My wife did the same. I guess I expected, finally, happy cheers, the fever breaking. Instead, one screamed back at my wife “That’s not what we want to hear!” What did they want to hear?
Then it came, a shot to my stomach that knocked me back a couple of steps. I hadn’t seen it, but now a short, shaved-headed fan in a white t-shirt was bobbing in the thrill of it, grinning to his friends and staring at me, no doubt hoping I would get off the bus. I did some arithmetic, declined, and instead started shouting something silly like “you should be ashamed of yourselves.” They loved every moment. Maybe that’s what they wanted to hear.
Finally, the bus crawled through the roundabout. My son had fled upstairs. Another passenger, it turned out, had been slapped by the same fan who had punched me, and offered to be a police witness. We exchanged details, went home, and went to bed.
At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?
I don't see any major change to the government's strategy for some time. Currently, there are fewer than 3,000 people with COVID in hospital, compared to over 39,000 in January. Furthermore, the rate of increase in cases is reducing. Even if the government makes changes to the speed of the unlocking, the same basic process will continue because of the lack of any alternative.
Another similar analogy is to the escape of the Israelites from Egypt led by Moses, with the parting of the Red Sea. I can only assume that SAGE, if it had been around at the time, would have required data to confirm that the Red Sea could be parted safely before recommending the escape of the Israelites. It is time for us to have faith in the power of the vaccines, which have been at least been scientifically proven to be effective.
"Denmark in shock after a footballer’s flat is set on fire
"The 22-year-old Jens Stage’s home was attacked following his transfer from AGF to FC Copenhagen"
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/27/hooliganism-fears-rise-in-denmark-after-a-footballers-flat-is-set-on-fire-jens-stage
"Denmark hooligans organise insane 20 vs 20 'forest fights' and under-19 competition
"As Denmark prepare to face Wales on Saturday in Euro 2020, we look back at an incredible report of Danish hooligans meeting for insane "forest fights". They even had youth divisions"
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/denmark-hooligans-organise-insane-20-24403451
Oh
PS. Continued mask wearing post lifting of restrictions is for the birds also.
I honestly have no idea where this polling is coming from.
How can he not understand that if you take your small child to a highly emotional World Cup semi final, you might get into trouble? And see some ugly things?
I mean, Denmark is the country that produced one of the most famous football hooligan videos in history. This:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8r4Kaw1wDA
This is a bit more subtle than that. People have been beaten into submission for so long that they're not about to escape the kennels even when the rescue party has flung wide the door.
Think Theon Greyjoy.
There's a plausible (amateur but solid in the past) go at modelling here;
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321?s=19
Key conclusion:
So I think the best I can say is: it’s unclear whether a delay helps or not. It’s likely to reduce peak NHS loads, but it could well (depending on what else happens) make things worse overall in terms of total infections, hospitalisations and deaths.
…but we’re already committed to a summer wave of some form (unless we’re willing to lockdown hard right now), and delay is not confidently expected to materially reduce the total number of infections over the next several months. So again, why wait?
It looks like there's no great option from here. If there was one (and even this is uncertain) it was at Step 3, or in the decisions made about vaccines in the Spring.
Bet the PM doesn't say any of that though.
You cannot extract the wild passion from football crowds, without losing something definitive; the reason a good footie atmos is uniquely exciting is that it is always on the brink of turning into real violence
I was once a football hooligan, for about 2 weeks (I was laughably bad, too much of a pussy); but a friend of mine is the real deal, a sophisticated professional man with a fine career - who goes to games for the violence (which is these days well organised and kept out of sight, if possible)
If I took my young child to a massively important match, with swirling emotions, I would warn them that it could be nasty. This journalist is expecting attendance at a football match to be like an afternoon visit to the National Gallery
It's a shame these wankers behaved like wankers. It is very much not a surprise
I note npmp (early 70s I think) telling me (last week of my 50s) online, that online is skewed to the young. It isn't, but it is skewed to the introverted.
There is absolutely no justification for an American guy, his Danish wife and son being attacked by a bunch of w******.
Supporting any team should be tribal but good natured. It does not need to cross the line into law breaking thuggery.
'Look everyone be careful, don't be stupid, people yet to be double jabbed should exercise the most caution, once nearly all of us are vaccinated then we can go back to the old ways.'
Nightclubs only made sense when Ecstasy arrived, and you got loved up and you danced in a frenzy for 5 hours on a meth-amphetamine high. That was fun. For about 3 years
However, I will defend the right of the misguided young to visit these things, if they insist
A lot of people seem to think that, but I am unconvinced (I am also not an educationalist). We got the little 'uns year report back yesterday, and I'm happy/proud/ecstatic to say it was good. But he had a parent who could devote vast amounts of time to teaching and playing with him during the lockdown, and the resources to buy teaching aids - including a laptop and subscription to Twinkl.
Many of his schoolfriends didn't have those advantages, and some are way behind. They may catch up, but I suspect many will no - although that probably varies according to age as well.
I'm also unsure that throwing vast amounts of money to help these kids catch up will help them - the ones whose education has been damaged most might also be the hardest to get the help to.
The question then is: who on earth are the 50% who want us to continue with the restrictions?
People are also fed up with wearing masks - shop workers etc have had enough - the heat (or cold) makes wearing them for long periods unpleasant. I have noticed that there are more people disregarding the wearing of masks - and the enforcement is not there anymore. If I see someone not wearing a mask (with no exemption lanyard) my immediate reaction is , ‘oh, they are not wearing a mask’ then a shrug of the shoulders & carry on, as really, I don’t give a shit anymore, and think, well next week they will be optional anyways. I am sure I am not alone.
Football is a man's sport and induces wild, masculine emotions. Et voila
The cluelessness is apparent in the guy's report:
"At daybreak, the anger was still inexplicable. This should be one of the happiest nights of their lives. Plenty of people were jubilant. Why were some looking for a punch-up?"
ANSWER: because they were looking for a punch-up. Because they like to fight. Because it is not just about scoring 2 goals and applauding. It is because you are the enemy: for a night. It is because their masculinity is vindicated by triumph, and humiliated by disaster. See any Old Firm game since Time Began
Those are the ones I really worry about. It'll impact their lives, their choice of universities etc.
The way we teach children history is all wrong – here's how to fix it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/way-teach-children-history-wrong-fix/
Interestingly, Sandbrook is plugging two books he has written. One on the Second World War and another on Henry VIII's wives.
And that imo is what is wrong with history teaching: it is reduced to Tudors and Nazis.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/10/hospital-waiting-lists-could-top-13-million-months-warns-sajid/#comment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5hL6UbstyE
However I feel even sadder for the students who are missing out on the best - or, at least, some of the most important years of their lives. UNIVERSITY. A wondrous, mind-expanding launch onto a new social stage, a chance to meet smart beautiful young people from all over the world - and to fuck them. To have wild political debates into the dawn. To take drugs in derelict houses, then wake up and discuss Aquinas
Instead they get dusty online seminars and a guide to socially distanced toothbrushing
It is genuinely tragic for people aged 18-23
From the number of large stag and hen parties pouring into, quaffing and revelling all over Newcastle (aka Covid HQ), I wouldn't be surprised to see a royal seeding elsewhere soon.
As we saw at the last world cup and the away games in the euro qualifiers, British hooligans are well out of practice these days.
We shared some crazy moments like playing rugby in the aisles of a Tesco using a pack of kitchen roll as the ball, stupid shit that no one else would understand but they were our memories.
Or my legendary dance moves in the gay and 80s bars.
Nana Akua on GB News is an excellent presenter simply because she tries to be positive, instead of the relentless doom and gloom you get on Sky News and BBC News.
Hooliganism also seems highly cognate with urban decay and social change. It was at its peak in the UK in the 70s, then it moved to Italy, Spain, now it is Eastern European and Turkish, and expands in the 3rd world, eg South Africa, Morocco
https://www.africanews.com/2018/04/25/south-africa-football-violence-major-facts-of-kaizer-chiefs-stadium-riot//
https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/01/17/moroccan-police-arrest-13-football-hooligans/