Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
But not teenagers - which means come September it's going to be isolation roulette again...
No, because the bubble system is being abandoned. That's the biggest thing from this for me.
And, even more crucially, self-isolation for contacts. The double jabbed and children both to be exempted. The test and trace system, for all the good it has done to date, might as well be shut down at the end of August.
Has that been confirmed? Last I heard it wasn’t expected yet.
That would make a huge difference in schools. For every child with Covid, an average of six have had to isolate.
Would have been more if the government hadn’t been ordering schools to break their own rules.
I'm quite sure that the Prime Minister said that in plain English in his statement. In fact, here's the relevant excerpt:
You will have to self-isolate if you test positive or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace. But we are looking to move to a different regime for fully vaccinated contacts of those testing positive, and also for children. And tomorrow the Education Secretary will announce our plans to maintain key protections but remove bubbles and contact isolation for pupils.
I'm assuming that this will probably involve some kind of (largely useless) additional testing regime to be announced by your favourite member of the cabinet, but the substance of the remarks seems pretty straightforward: bye-bye to bubbles and bye-bye to self-isolation for schoolchildren.
So it’s been flagged up, but not confirmed.
Your caution in taking anything that the Prime Minister says at face value is both wise and wholly understandable, but I think in this case there is reason to be optimistic. Things cannot go on as they are. If the kids go back to doing the self-isolation hokey-cokey in huge numbers again in September then the parents and the Government's own backbenchers will be incandescent, and Johnson will cop the flak for all of it. There's a huge political imperative behind ending disruption to schooling.
I believe The Saj mentioned Gavin Williamson will make a statement tomorrow.
That's exactly correct. The Prime Minister also said this in his statement, as per my previous remarks.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
I think you understand very well that it is not only the unvaccinated you are potentially going to be infecting - and that even some of the unvaccinated are so for absolutely no fault of their own - but also people for whom the vaccine doesn't work well, and others who are just plain unlucky.
But thank you for at least some degree of honesty.
And at this point I take my leave of you people.
Don't forget to wear your mask as you head out.
Just how many people can't get any of the available vaccines and why? And if they're concerned about cases then maybe they'd be better off getting an FFP3 mask or shielding for the next couple of months as we have this exit wave rather than relying upon cloth masks keeping them safe.
That's the thing, no one's forcing them to go to the pub. People are acting like Boris has put a gun to everyone's head and told them to get down to their nearest night club and lick the floors.
Pubs have staff, as do shops, trains, buses and various other places that involve face to face contact with the public.
They can all get vaccinated. Literally can walk in and get jabbed.
Sure, but that won't stop a percentage of them getting covid - it just won't be as bad as it would have been. But it will be bad enough to be pretty unpleasant and to stop them going to work for a decent spell. My guess is that a lot of employers will want to avoid that and so will keep mask use mandatory, table service etc.
Ok, but flu is pretty unpleasant too and can knock young people out for days at a time. Look at it this way, a double jabbed 60 year old with AZ - which has lower efficacy against infection (about 80%) - was back up on his feet within a few days. Under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna both of which have got well over 90% efficacy against infection and plausibly over 98% efficacy against hospitalisation. Under 40s already have a less than 1/1000 chance of being hospitalised and now we're reducing that by 98% and death by basically 100% in those age groups. That's 1/50,000. Even if all under 40s were to get COVID that's about 300 hospitalisations, total. Now not every under 40 will be vaccinated but ultimately that's on them. We're all eligible now.
(When we were there, we were caught in the mother of all rainstorms. It was like being under a power shower).
The port of. Indeed! It’s very touristy even during plague. There’s a weird kind of wartime spirit - if your business hasn’t totally collapsed then it’s time to drink cava!
The train to Soller is awesome. Then the tram down to the port. I love Mallorca.
Have to say I will miss sitting at the pub table, ordering via an app and having drinks brought to me.
Maybe it is a sign of my age?
Perhaps some pubs will keep table service?
You always could get that in Spoons.
But who will go into Spoons from now on?
At several pubs they have told me they want to keep table service as an option for busy times - apparently, they think it is more efficient.
I have heard tell a hybrid system is being devised, order via the app which then pings you to go and pick up drinks from the bar on a tray or order at the bar as normal for people who want the traditional experience.
What about the millions of people who don't have smartphones?
55.5 million people in the UK had smartphones in 2019 - including almost everyone over the age of 16.
I don't have one and never intend to own one. Dreadful things.
Thank goodness the government is banning them from schools in January.
Don't you have a computer? A smartphone is just a portable one that fits in your pocket.
I 100% agree with the idea that it's time to unlock, we've nearly finished vaccinating all those who want (other than perhaps kids) and will be left with the holdouts only very soon. We can't do any more than that. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WANT PERSONALLY.
But the MESSAGING of that briefing was fucking awful. That wasn't a Freedom Day pre-announcement (and thus in itself a total waste of time - why say "we've not decided anything but when we do decide it, which we haven't, it'll be these things, which we've not decided yet"??), that was a THE MISSILES HAVE FAILED press conference, which was the complete fucking opposite of what it actually is and what it needed to be to actually get people to stop cowering away in fear even if they are jabbed.
In essence all three of them boiled it down to "the vaccines are so incredibly amazing that we have to open up now because the deaths we're still going to have will be worst in the winter so we might as well get them out of the way now". It might all be well and true and responsible but it is most definitely NOT the PR-friendly message that will go down well with the public, and now we will have at least a fortnight of everyone shitting themselves because the fucking government just did their best to give them the intention that things were actually getting worse than they are already and those people essentially will be badgering the government relentlessly to roll back on most of that because the government already spent a year and a half terrorising them and then said "well, it's over now, but it's not reeally over, we just can't go on like this any more".
Absolute total car crash. Whitty presented a fairly nuanced but complex message that will inevitably be mis-interpreted, and Vallance basically did his best to go "hey, I'm on your side, these cases are giving me the shits".
Society has proven itself to be a giant flywheel, and having effectively ground the thing to a halt it needs a huge input to get it going properly again, and that wasn't it, it was a half-assed botch of an attempt that will end up having done more harm than good in getting the country up and operating properly again.
Christ almighty.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
Hang on, so the Omega strain is going to be a major threat double vaxxed or not. So lets have a party in the summer before the plague gets us. On that basis where Covid blasts through the vaccine I assume that having had it once won't be a defence either?
Thats depressing. It isn't about unlocking now. Its about just how fucked we are. Out of interest if the rest of Europe / the world largely decides to keep us away what will the reaction be...?
But that Omega variant would happen anyway. Let's be realistic about it. You loathe Boris and it's the only thing in your brain for about 95% of the day. Anything he said today would have been unacceptable for you. The scientists literally said having a third wave in the summer is preferable to one in the winter, that's a major reason to unlockdown now. The options are unlockdown now or wait until next year. The latter isn't a realistic option so unlockdown now is the least worst way forwards.
The rationale is fine, it's just the presentation of the message that specific way to the public that's horrible. Not "we've got brilliant vaccines far in excess of our best dreams and take up in number far in excess of our initial expectations" but "we're opening now because it's never going to be safe but it's a little less bad now than in three months".
If I were a cynic I'd say they did it that way so that they can get to the 12th and say "ok, we hear you. We wanted to get shot of the restrictions, but if it's what you want...".
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
I 100% agree with the idea that it's time to unlock, we've nearly finished vaccinating all those who want (other than perhaps kids) and will be left with the holdouts only very soon. We can't do any more than that. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WANT PERSONALLY.
But the MESSAGING of that briefing was fucking awful. That wasn't a Freedom Day pre-announcement (and thus in itself a total waste of time - why say "we've not decided anything but when we do decide it, which we haven't, it'll be these things, which we've not decided yet"??), that was a THE MISSILES HAVE FAILED press conference, which was the complete fucking opposite of what it actually is and what it needed to be to actually get people to stop cowering away in fear even if they are jabbed.
In essence all three of them boiled it down to "the vaccines are so incredibly amazing that we have to open up now because the deaths we're still going to have will be worst in the winter so we might as well get them out of the way now". It might all be well and true and responsible but it is most definitely NOT the PR-friendly message that will go down well with the public, and now we will have at least a fortnight of everyone shitting themselves because the fucking government just did their best to give them the intention that things were actually getting worse than they are already and those people essentially will be badgering the government relentlessly to roll back on most of that because the government already spent a year and a half terrorising them and then said "well, it's over now, but it's not reeally over, we just can't go on like this any more".
Absolute total car crash. Whitty presented a fairly nuanced but complex message that will inevitably be mis-interpreted, and Vallance basically did his best to go "hey, I'm on your side, these cases are giving me the shits".
Society has proven itself to be a giant flywheel, and having effectively ground the thing to a halt it needs a huge input to get it going properly again, and that wasn't it, it was a half-assed botch of an attempt that will end up having done more harm than good in getting the country up and operating properly again.
Christ almighty.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
Hang on, so the Omega strain is going to be a major threat double vaxxed or not. So lets have a party in the summer before the plague gets us. On that basis where Covid blasts through the vaccine I assume that having had it once won't be a defence either?
Thats depressing. It isn't about unlocking now. Its about just how fucked we are. Out of interest if the rest of Europe / the world largely decides to keep us away what will the reaction be...?
But that Omega variant would happen anyway. Let's be realistic about it. You loathe Boris and it's the only thing in your brain for about 95% of the day. Anything he said today would have been unacceptable for you. The scientists literally said having a third wave in the summer is preferable to one in the winter, that's a major reason to unlockdown now. The options are unlockdown now or wait until next year. The latter isn't a realistic option so unlockdown now is the least worst way forwards.
The rationale is fine, it's just the presentation of the message that specific way to the public that's horrible. Not "we've got brilliant vaccines far in excess of our best dreams and take up in number far in excess of our initial expectations" but "we're opening now because it's never going to be safe but it's a little less bad now than in three months".
If I were a cynic I'd say they did it that way so that they can get to the 12th and say "ok, we hear you. We wanted to get shot of the restrictions, but if it's what you want...".
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
People on furlough. Independent Sage. There are others.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
Yes, quite a few people it seems.
Or more particularly enjoying the restrictions and working from home and distancing etc - bearing in mind excess deaths from the pandemic ended four whole months ago already.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
I don't think anyone is enjoying hearing about people dying, but there are people who had health problems of one kind or another that meant they were largely housebound before the pandemic, who will have enjoyed so much of life being moved online, that they could then participate in on an even footing to everyone else.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
A very good point. They have enough money to run it at a loss until all the competition is bankrupt.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 38m The more I think about it, the more I think this is a massive moment. The news clips basically have Starmer opposing the lifting of lockdown. There’s no spinning that now. Labour’s against returning to normal over the summer. That’s a major political gamble.
If Covid had affected people last year the way it is this, post vaccination - ie lots of cases with v few deaths, there’s no way they’d have closed the country down is there?
No. But the country isn't closed down now either. It's mainly opened up. It's nothing like last year's lockdown. So although this point is a point - no question about that - it does not for me have quite the weight that some attach to it.
Of course, but I don't think they would have ever closed down to the extent we have currently if, when Covid first attacked, the worst it did was the current infection to death rate
Probably not. Because the first cuts are the deepest. Inertia works to support the status quo. The status quo was no restrictions. The status quo now is these restrictions - post step 3 and pre step 4.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
People on furlough. Independent Sage. There are others.
I "liked" that but would like to qualify: I think most people on furlough (there will be some lazy buggers) aren't enjoying it, because their incomes are reduced and they'll be frightened that their jobs are written off when normal service resumes. OTOH there are an awful lot of people working from home full-time who will be dreading going back, and would rather this was put off for as long as possible.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
What does he mean by "people on both sides"? Surely people on the "this is over" side of the debate don't want to be having the debate!
I presume he means antivaxxers who want restrictions to whinge about (thus denying any positive progress made), and zero covidians who think we'll never be safe enough to exit restrictions (thus denying any positive progress made).
I actually think Hodges talks more sense than jokes would suggest (which is not to say he always speaks sense), but I think he's making a bit of leap from people who he believes, in effect if not by word, argue that restrictions will not/should not end, to making that their motivation.
Those people may be being irrational to his mind, but their motivation is not as he presents. They may merely be self defeating - humans often are.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
Yes, quite a few people it seems.
Or more particularly enjoying the restrictions and working from home and distancing etc - bearing in mind excess deaths from the pandemic ended four whole months ago already.
Anyone who talks about social distancing being a "low cost" option needs to take a long walk off a short pier.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
We have a world leading vaccine program, which means that we're in a position to face what we do post-vaccines before other countries lead the way on that.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
I think that's the main lack of understanding here. There's no viable way to avoid COVID. That opportunity died as soon as China decided to infect the world by keeping international flights running from Wuhan. Even Australia and NZ will have to deal with it one day. They will just have to hope that the vaccines can take all of the strain and it won't end up like Scotland where there is a lower level of prior infection which causes a big spike. Happily in Scotland because the vulnerable are all double jabbed it isn't making any difference to hospitalisation rates.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
We have a world leading vaccine program, which means that we're in a position to face what we do post-vaccines before other countries lead the way on that.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
And also a lot of people have died from other illnesses during the lockdown because they weren't able to get the treatment.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
I think there's a widely-held view that online courses or online degrees aren't as good as traditional ones where you go to the lecture hall day in day out. If the traditional universities eschew lectures and do everything online, that view will no longer hold.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
People on furlough. Independent Sage. There are others.
I "liked" that but would like to qualify: I think most people on furlough (there will be some lazy buggers) aren't enjoying it, because their incomes are reduced and they'll be frightened that their jobs are written off when normal service resumes. OTOH there are an awful lot of people working from home full-time who will be dreading going back, and would rather this was put off for as long as possible.
Yes, I should have said home workers as that includes me. I wouldn't say I'm dreading it, but I have enjoyed not having to set the alarm.
And to be fair, I suspect there are some people on furlough who are really worried about the future, and I feel very sorry for them.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
We have a world leading vaccine program, which means that we're in a position to face what we do post-vaccines before other countries lead the way on that.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
Spending months not living life to the full isn't really worse than death.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
We have a world leading vaccine program, which means that we're in a position to face what we do post-vaccines before other countries lead the way on that.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
Spending months not living life to the full isn't really worse than death.
No, but this continuing indefinitely would be a slow one.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
It does seem like it sometimes.
I think there's plenty of people who like it because it gives them the perfect excuse to attack the government.
God knows I'm not fan of the Conservatives but there's no particular reason to think anyone else would have done a better or worse job - it's just a thing that happened, we all muddled through it the best we could, we have a route back to some sort of normal now, move on. Yes, mistakes were made, but is there any reason to suspect other parties wouldn't have made the same mistakes, or different ones? Not really, no.
That's the problem here, people think that politicians can Do Things (TM) and make it all go away, and if it hasn't gone away that's because they didn't do the right Good Things and therefore must be incompetent. They might well be incompetent, but it's pretty unlikely there's anyone else who is competent to do the magic people want.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
I don't think anyone is enjoying hearing about people dying, but there are people who had health problems of one kind or another that meant they were largely housebound before the pandemic, who will have enjoyed so much of life being moved online, that they could then participate in on an even footing to everyone else.
Which is actually quite easy to get one's head around.
I don’t know if it’s already been mentioned, but in addition to the “let’s not overload the NHS in flu season” reason for having the wave now, as I understand it, there’s another crucial one: overshoot.
As it was explained to me, it goes like this: we’re all aware that we reach herd immunity at the point where the fraction of people unprotected drops below one-over-R. That is, with an R of 4, when the population unprotected is under 1/4, it cannot infect enough people to sustain an outbreak. With an R of 6, the fraction unprotected must decrease to 1/6. And so on.
The thing is - this doesn't happen like hitting a brick wall. If you have a large number infected to start with, the infection chains follow exponential decay. Every 100 infectees would infect, say, 99 more. They'd infect 98 more. And so on, and so on. So the number infected would take us past the herd immunity threshold.
How far past? Well, if you start at 10% short, apparently, you'll probably end up 10% overshooting. If you start 5% short, you'll overshoot by about 5%. And so on.
By taking the impact in summer, when R is up to (by some guesstimates) 30% lower (because with behavioural changes in the summer months - us being outside far more versus winter when we’re mingling indoors), we'll overshoot by less. And as R slowly and gradually increases between now and winter, the distance between where we are and the herd immunity threshold will continually be very low - so we'll overshoot by the minimum distance.
To put it another way - taking the wave in summer means fewer hospitalisations overall.
Ordered the extra engraving for my mum's other half of the parental vessel in the columbarium today (died pre-Covid).
Our local monumental mason says business was up 40% on last year in the spring, and that it has now calmed down, but there is still an 8-10 week lead time for orders to be done.
TBF 1-2 weeks of that are to get church authority authorisation of the text.
The most depressing thing. It's clear there are people on both sides of the debate who just don't want this thing to end. Covid is their new cause. I can't get my head round it. I'm sick of it. I want it over now. 6:40 PM · Jul 5, 2021·"
Eh? Fresh from his fiasco in Batley and Spen ("impossible for Labour to win"), Hodges now seems to have gone mad. Is there anyone on the planet who is actually enjoying the pandemic and hopes it will continue?
It does seem like it sometimes.
I think there's plenty of people who like it because it gives them the perfect excuse to attack the government.
God knows I'm not fan of the Conservatives but there's no particular reason to think anyone else would have done a better or worse job - it's just a thing that happened, we all muddled through it the best we could, we have a route back to some sort of normal now, move on. Yes, mistakes were made, but is there any reason to suspect other parties wouldn't have made the same mistakes, or different ones? Not really, no.
That's the problem here, people think that politicians can Do Things (TM) and make it all go away, and if it hasn't gone away that's because they didn't do the right Good Things and therefore must be incompetent. They might well be incompetent, but it's pretty unlikely there's anyone else who is competent to do the magic people want.
I think that's one of the major problems. The PM is a massive wankstain and I'd celebrate the moment the Tory party sacks him. However, we seem to have split into the same old political camps of people attacking the government rather than policy. Starmer just did it, the policy is absolutely correct, get the exit wave out of the way in the summer, hope to hell there's no vaccine evading variant and then do booster shots in September and October. There's simply no other way to do it, not unlocking now will mean waiting until next year. I don't think that's an acceptable path for any nation.
So for the return to the office I suggested to my staff first day back (or the night before) we go to a nice restaurant and have a giggle and drinks, my treat because we've not seen each other for nearly 17 months.
Their suggestion: We all go to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
I think there's a widely-held view that online courses or online degrees aren't as good as traditional ones where you go to the lecture hall day in day out. If the traditional universities eschew lectures and do everything online, that view will no longer hold.
Thinking about it I reckon that the major barrier for a large fraction of courses - i.e. those that don't require a lot of work with specialist equipment, facilities and labs, like medicine and the sciences - to online takeover is the capacity to mark all the students' work. By poaching top notch academics from the world's best universities and paying royalties for in copyright textbooks and other materials, a complete and really rather good course in any of the humanities could be delivered successfully through a computer to students studying at home.
Thus if the marking issue can be solved then your Ivy League and Russell Group institutions could continue to provide in person lectures and small group tuition at a premium price; medium and lower ranking unis would then go bust, or specialise in the aforementioned science and other practical disciplines.
I 100% agree with the idea that it's time to unlock, we've nearly finished vaccinating all those who want (other than perhaps kids) and will be left with the holdouts only very soon. We can't do any more than that. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WANT PERSONALLY.
But the MESSAGING of that briefing was fucking awful. That wasn't a Freedom Day pre-announcement (and thus in itself a total waste of time - why say "we've not decided anything but when we do decide it, which we haven't, it'll be these things, which we've not decided yet"??), that was a THE MISSILES HAVE FAILED press conference, which was the complete fucking opposite of what it actually is and what it needed to be to actually get people to stop cowering away in fear even if they are jabbed.
In essence all three of them boiled it down to "the vaccines are so incredibly amazing that we have to open up now because the deaths we're still going to have will be worst in the winter so we might as well get them out of the way now". It might all be well and true and responsible but it is most definitely NOT the PR-friendly message that will go down well with the public, and now we will have at least a fortnight of everyone shitting themselves because the fucking government just did their best to give them the intention that things were actually getting worse than they are already and those people essentially will be badgering the government relentlessly to roll back on most of that because the government already spent a year and a half terrorising them and then said "well, it's over now, but it's not reeally over, we just can't go on like this any more".
Absolute total car crash. Whitty presented a fairly nuanced but complex message that will inevitably be mis-interpreted, and Vallance basically did his best to go "hey, I'm on your side, these cases are giving me the shits".
Society has proven itself to be a giant flywheel, and having effectively ground the thing to a halt it needs a huge input to get it going properly again, and that wasn't it, it was a half-assed botch of an attempt that will end up having done more harm than good in getting the country up and operating properly again.
Christ almighty.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
Hang on, so the Omega strain is going to be a major threat double vaxxed or not. So lets have a party in the summer before the plague gets us. On that basis where Covid blasts through the vaccine I assume that having had it once won't be a defence either?
Thats depressing. It isn't about unlocking now. Its about just how fucked we are. Out of interest if the rest of Europe / the world largely decides to keep us away what will the reaction be...?
But that Omega variant would happen anyway. Let's be realistic about it. You loathe Boris and it's the only thing in your brain for about 95% of the day. Anything he said today would have been unacceptable for you. The scientists literally said having a third wave in the summer is preferable to one in the winter, that's a major reason to unlockdown now. The options are unlockdown now or wait until next year. The latter isn't a realistic option so unlockdown now is the least worst way forwards.
Read what I posted both here and earlier. Unlocking is happening - whether it will be a disaster or not.. What Whitty and Vallance said tonight is new news. Another wave coming that will get through vaccines. This is way beyond party bickering, this is how do we smash Covid?
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web. What bricks-and-mortar universities offer is a finishing school, networking and a brand name. What links Boris and Gove and JRM is they went to Oxford and made connections there. If they just wanted to study Latin or English or History, they could have gone anywhere or, indeed, stayed at home.
But if lectures are online and tutorials by zoom call, then where is the social aspect, the networking? The brand name will last longer but even there lie dangers to the institution because if every aspiring mathematician can go to Cambridge, because there are no limits on Youtube lectures, then who needs Manchester or Oxford?
So for the return to the office I suggested to my staff first day back (or the night before) we go to a nice restaurant and have a giggle and drinks, my treat because we've not seen each other for nearly 17 months.
Their suggestion: We all to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
I work with such arseholes.
The alternative view would be that if you can get through a pandemic you can get through a pizza with pineapple on it. Just think how much of a team bonding experience that will be if you take one for the team and order likewise!
So for the return to the office I suggested to my staff first day back (or the night before) we go to a nice restaurant and have a giggle and drinks, my treat because we've not seen each other for nearly 17 months.
Their suggestion: We all to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
I wonder if there any many unvaccinated people who simply didn't realise that a large exit wave would occur - or at least not of this size - and regret their decision?
I fully support the full re-opening (and did predict it would happen 3 weeks ago!), but if I was over 50 with no vaccine I'd be pretty worried in a few weeks' time when case numbers hit the ceiling.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web.
Quite - but that's why I was surprised someone like Amazon hasn't taken a big punt at something like that.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
That's true for essentially everywhere. In time almost the entire human race will either get the vaccine or covid. Any country that doesn't want to be lockdown for a very long time will have the same dilemma.
We have a world leading vaccine program, which means that we're in a position to face what we do post-vaccines before other countries lead the way on that.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
Spending months not living life to the full isn't really worse than death.
No, but this continuing indefinitely would be a slow one.
Yes it'll be good to fully normalise. Hope there are no shocks in store. I was just in hyperbole swoop and correct mode there.
I 100% agree with the idea that it's time to unlock, we've nearly finished vaccinating all those who want (other than perhaps kids) and will be left with the holdouts only very soon. We can't do any more than that. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WANT PERSONALLY.
But the MESSAGING of that briefing was fucking awful. That wasn't a Freedom Day pre-announcement (and thus in itself a total waste of time - why say "we've not decided anything but when we do decide it, which we haven't, it'll be these things, which we've not decided yet"??), that was a THE MISSILES HAVE FAILED press conference, which was the complete fucking opposite of what it actually is and what it needed to be to actually get people to stop cowering away in fear even if they are jabbed.
In essence all three of them boiled it down to "the vaccines are so incredibly amazing that we have to open up now because the deaths we're still going to have will be worst in the winter so we might as well get them out of the way now". It might all be well and true and responsible but it is most definitely NOT the PR-friendly message that will go down well with the public, and now we will have at least a fortnight of everyone shitting themselves because the fucking government just did their best to give them the intention that things were actually getting worse than they are already and those people essentially will be badgering the government relentlessly to roll back on most of that because the government already spent a year and a half terrorising them and then said "well, it's over now, but it's not reeally over, we just can't go on like this any more".
Absolute total car crash. Whitty presented a fairly nuanced but complex message that will inevitably be mis-interpreted, and Vallance basically did his best to go "hey, I'm on your side, these cases are giving me the shits".
Society has proven itself to be a giant flywheel, and having effectively ground the thing to a halt it needs a huge input to get it going properly again, and that wasn't it, it was a half-assed botch of an attempt that will end up having done more harm than good in getting the country up and operating properly again.
Christ almighty.
We're going to unlock now and let it rip. Thanks to our brilliant vaccines when you get it now it will only kill a small percentage of you. if we don't unlock now then "when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months" we'll have to delay again.
Hang on, so the Omega strain is going to be a major threat double vaxxed or not. So lets have a party in the summer before the plague gets us. On that basis where Covid blasts through the vaccine I assume that having had it once won't be a defence either?
Thats depressing. It isn't about unlocking now. Its about just how fucked we are. Out of interest if the rest of Europe / the world largely decides to keep us away what will the reaction be...?
But that Omega variant would happen anyway. Let's be realistic about it. You loathe Boris and it's the only thing in your brain for about 95% of the day. Anything he said today would have been unacceptable for you. The scientists literally said having a third wave in the summer is preferable to one in the winter, that's a major reason to unlockdown now. The options are unlockdown now or wait until next year. The latter isn't a realistic option so unlockdown now is the least worst way forwards.
Read what I posted both here and earlier. Unlocking is happening - whether it will be a disaster or not.. What Whitty and Vallance said tonight is new news. Another wave coming that will get through vaccines. This is way beyond party bickering, this is how do we smash Covid?
It's not new news at all. Loads of us have been saying it for weeks. I literally posted it at the start of this thread an hour before the announcement. Some scientists have been talking about since April when the initial June 21st date was set. The exit wave has always been inevitable, with delta it will be worse than with alpha so it's a shame we didn't get vaccines done 6 weeks earlier but it's going to happen either way. Unlocking now is the sensible course of action unless you're in the camp that wants to delay until next April.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web. What bricks-and-mortar universities offer is a finishing school, networking and a brand name. What links Boris and Gove and JRM is they went to Oxford and made connections there. If they just wanted to study Latin or English or History, they could have gone anywhere or, indeed, stayed at home.
But if lectures are online and tutorials by zoom call, then where is the social aspect, the networking? The brand name will last longer but even there lie dangers to the institution because if every aspiring mathematician can go to Cambridge, because there are no limits on Youtube lectures, then who needs Manchester or Oxford?
What will be interesting to see is if the universities are desperate to keep online learning but the academics are desperate to get back to in-person conference travel...
(When we were there, we were caught in the mother of all rainstorms. It was like being under a power shower).
The port of. Indeed! It’s very touristy even during plague. There’s a weird kind of wartime spirit - if your business hasn’t totally collapsed then it’s time to drink cava!
The train to Soller is awesome. Then the tram down to the port. I love Mallorca.
The Harbour was a bit stinky last time i was there in 2019 and its v expensive to stay in the close to hotels.. beyond my pocket
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Your anger makes me very happy inside. It fuels my excitement for the 19th knowing it will make you more and more angry as the day approaches.
Not at all. It's been obvious for a long time that it's going to happen.
What's been not quite so obvious is that ALL the safeguards such as mask-wearing would be totally discarded, for purely political reasons.
It says something about you, of course, that you're "excited" about it, and that you feel "very happy inside" about other people's concerns.
Fortunately I don't feel particularly at risk myself. I'm not that old, I'm in good health, I'm fully vaccinated. I'm not actually obliged to travel or to have close contact with a lot of people.
But I do feel concerned about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccines aren't going to be effective. They don't have any choice. With case numbers sky-high, if all the protective measures are abaondoned for political reasons, they are either going to be put at risk, or they are going to be forced back into isolation.
Those - and the health workers who have to deal with the consequences - are the people I'm concerned about. I get the impression that you and most of the people here couldn't give a damn about them.
But the two groups you've mentioned that's going to happen whenever we unlockdown.
No, of course it isn't, because the higher the level of immunity we achieve the fewer will be the case numbers.
Again - it should be so obvious, and I don't know whether people can't understand it or they just wilfully ignore it because minor inconveniences like wearing masks for a few weeks longer really mean more to them than savng other people's lives.
Because case numbers don't matter a jot if they're not causing hospitalisations and deaths. Hospitalisations and deaths with "high case numbers" now are below flu numbers, so the data shows Covid is less risk than the flu now post-vaccine.
They do of course in that they're very likely to produce variants. There's more likelihood that variants will be benign than deadly, but there's a big risk.
It's not *that* likely to produce variants of concern. There are seven billion people on planet earth, of which five or six billion (give or take) are unvaccinated. Of these, maybe 10 million are in the UK. That's about 0.2%.
And it's people with really serious Covid infections who are most likely to nurture mutations. So, statistically, the likelihood is that the mutation will happen somewhere else.
I wonder if there any many unvaccinated people who simply didn't realise that a large exit wave would occur - or at least not of this size - and regret their decision?
I fully support the full re-opening (and did predict it would happen 3 weeks ago!), but if I was over 50 with no vaccine I'd be pretty worried in a few weeks' time when case numbers hit the ceiling.
Happily, all of those people can walk in and get a Pfizer dose tomorrow at their GP and a follow up three weeks later.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web.
Quite - but that's why I was surprised someone like Amazon hasn't taken a big punt at something like that.
I did read somewhere that companies like Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple have plans for such things but things are slightly delayed because the Trump University scandal has increased regulatory overview on this.
They may end up partnering with places like MIT and Caltech now.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web. What bricks-and-mortar universities offer is a finishing school, networking and a brand name. What links Boris and Gove and JRM is they went to Oxford and made connections there. If they just wanted to study Latin or English or History, they could have gone anywhere or, indeed, stayed at home.
But if lectures are online and tutorials by zoom call, then where is the social aspect, the networking? The brand name will last longer but even there lie dangers to the institution because if every aspiring mathematician can go to Cambridge, because there are no limits on Youtube lectures, then who needs Manchester or Oxford?
It isn't just the networking. How about the student-led and researched class presentations? They are a big part of learning too.
So for the return to the office I suggested to my staff first day back (or the night before) we go to a nice restaurant and have a giggle and drinks, my treat because we've not seen each other for nearly 17 months.
Their suggestion: We all to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
I don’t know if it’s already been mentioned, but in addition to the “let’s not overload the NHS in flu season” reason for having the wave now, as I understand it, there’s another crucial one: overshoot.
As it was explained to me, it goes like this: we’re all aware that we reach herd immunity at the point where the fraction of people unprotected drops below one-over-R. That is, with an R of 4, when the population unprotected is under 1/4, it cannot infect enough people to sustain an outbreak. With an R of 6, the fraction unprotected must decrease to 1/6. And so on.
The thing is - this doesn't happen like hitting a brick wall. If you have a large number infected to start with, the infection chains follow exponential decay. Every 100 infectees would infect, say, 99 more. They'd infect 98 more. And so on, and so on. So the number infected would take us past the herd immunity threshold.
How far past? Well, if you start at 10% short, apparently, you'll probably end up 10% overshooting. If you start 5% short, you'll overshoot by about 5%. And so on.
By taking the impact in summer, when R is up to (by some guesstimates) 30% lower (because with behavioural changes in the summer months - us being outside far more versus winter when we’re mingling indoors), we'll overshoot by less. And as R slowly and gradually increases between now and winter, the distance between where we are and the herd immunity threshold will continually be very low - so we'll overshoot by the minimum distance.
To put it another way - taking the wave in summer means fewer hospitalisations overall.
I remember seeing a very good tweet posted here a few weeks back showing how that worked.
It effectively showed its much better to reach herd immunity in small steps than a big one.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I love older people who had the chance to have social lives, find partners and settle down tell me how they have a dog in this fight. How noble they are whilst the young are having a whale of a time.
So for the return to the office I suggested to my staff first day back (or the night before) we go to a nice restaurant and have a giggle and drinks, my treat because we've not seen each other for nearly 17 months.
Their suggestion: We all go to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
I work with such arseholes.
I'm sure they would consider your feelings and get you a half and half with your favourite topping abutting the pineapples. Just as long as you cede on the stuffed crust.
Well now. I had the temerity to suggest that it's not unreasonable to remove all the legal restrictions now and my wife is so angry at me that she didn't thank me for cooking dinner. She as much as accused me of being in cahoots with Boris Johnson in a desire to murder restaurant staff. It's going to take a long time for people to adjust to the emergency being over.
Yep ... and to maarsh's point in the post before yours ... I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that some people have been literally brainwashed by propaganda ... it will take a long period of therapy to repair the damage.
I'm actually, pathetically, quite apprehensive about going into a shop again sans mask - what will people think? how will they react? What if they mistake my hayfever symptoms for COVID? Will the self-appointed COVID inspectors confront me?
I actually think that's the one big misstep, the government should have reduced the vaccine gap to 3 and 4 weeks for Pfizer and Moderna and completely phase out AZ for first doses. It would give us significantly better capacity utilisation and the AZ doses can be donated to COVAX until we need to start building up a stockpile for booster jabs.
This evening's announcements, while not unexpected and not unwelcome, leave me slightly troubled.
The world has changed, whether we like it or want it or not. I sense an undercurrent of trying to put the genie back in the bottle and party like it's on sale for £20.19 but the world has changed.
There won't be a mass return to offices, the way we live has been fundamentally changed not just by the virus but by the opportunities the virus presented to showcase different ways of working, shopping and having fun. That in its turn will have winners and losers and the losers will shout the loudest because they always do while the winners just carry on, er, winning.
Home deliveries, home shopping, home working - all a quite radical revolution which was perhaps happening any way but has been accelerated by the virus much in the same way war accelerates technological process.
The world has changed.
The other undercurrent which concerns me is the triumphalism of the anti-maskers. Yes, not having to wear masks on trains, buses, tubes and in supermarkets will be a relief (though I'd like to see the hand sanitiser kept available). However, what worries me is those who, for whatever reason, choose to continue to wear a mask.
It is absolutely their right so to do and that right must be respected - my fear is there will be incidents where individuals with masks are victimised and abused by those not wearing them. I hope I'm wrong but we know how "aggressive" crowds can be, especially when alcohol is involved.
I'm hoping the tolerant good nature of the British public will come to the fore and we'll respect those who choose to be more risk-averse (it's their life after all).
On a personal level, I quite like table service and ordering via an app at the pub - done it three or four times and much better than a scrum down at the bar. I'm also looking forward to going back horse racing - the horses always beat me - perhaps as soon as month end. The problem is the announcement has come in time to save that catastrophe of the modern age - the evening race meeting with the post-race tribute band. £40 for six moderate races and somebody sounding completely unlike Gary Barlow - it's an abomination, as somebody once said of Entertainment News.
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
Well now. I had the temerity to suggest that it's not unreasonable to remove all the legal restrictions now and my wife is so angry at me that she didn't thank me for cooking dinner. She as much as accused me of being in cahoots with Boris Johnson in a desire to murder restaurant staff. It's going to take a long time for people to adjust to the emergency being over.
Yep ... and to maarsh's point in the post before yours ... I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that some people have been literally brainwashed by propaganda ... it will take a long period of therapy to repair the damage.
I'm actually, pathetically, quite apprehensive about going into a shop again sans mask - what will people think? how will they react? What if they mistake my hayfever symptoms for COVID? Will the self-appointed COVID inspectors confront me?
Nah they'll just tut beneath their permanent mask they've sewn to their face.
The other undercurrent which concerns me is the triumphalism of the anti-maskers. Yes, not having to wear masks on trains, buses, tubes and in supermarkets will be a relief (though I'd like to see the hand sanitiser kept available). However, what worries me is those who, for whatever reason, choose to continue to wear a mask.
It is absolutely their right so to do and that right must be respected - my fear is there will be incidents where individuals with masks are victimised and abused by those not wearing them. I hope I'm wrong but we know how "aggressive" crowds can be, especially when alcohol is involved.
I'm hoping the tolerant good nature of the British public will come to the fore and we'll respect those who choose to be more risk-averse (it's their life after all).
I suspect there will also be plenty of instances of the reverse, of people being harangued for not wearing masks because other folk get irate about it.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I love older people who had the chance to have social lives, find partners and settle down tell me how they have a dog in this fight. How noble they are whilst the young are having a whale of a time.
Do you not have the imagination to manage a social life, find a partner and settle down and wear a mask on the tube or a bus?
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
I think its Iberian neighbour, Portugal, runs it very close.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I love older people who had the chance to have social lives, find partners and settle down tell me how they have a dog in this fight. How noble they are whilst the young are having a whale of a time.
Let the old, the fat, and the stupid, die
Enough now. It’s just Darwinism. Otherwise we all starve
I suspect there will also be plenty of instances of the reverse, of people being harangued for not wearing masks because other folk get irate about it.
I've seen no evidence of that on the London Underground where mask observance in my part of town is about 80%. There's no enforcement either and hasn't been for several weeks. For those of us who are double vaccinated, the Rubicon of Absurdity has already been crossed.
Sorry. I will stop posting these now. But it does all feel quite fin de regime. Or fin de siecle. Or just: fin?
I ended up feeling quite sorry for you after your naff tableware got such a going over. This is a lovely view and a marked improvement in quality of bakery.
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
Well now. I had the temerity to suggest that it's not unreasonable to remove all the legal restrictions now and my wife is so angry at me that she didn't thank me for cooking dinner. She as much as accused me of being in cahoots with Boris Johnson in a desire to murder restaurant staff. It's going to take a long time for people to adjust to the emergency being over.
Yep ... and to maarsh's point in the post before yours ... I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that some people have been literally brainwashed by propaganda ... it will take a long period of therapy to repair the damage.
I'm actually, pathetically, quite apprehensive about going into a shop again sans mask - what will people think? how will they react? What if they mistake my hayfever symptoms for COVID? Will the self-appointed COVID inspectors confront me?
Nah they'll just tut beneath their permanent mask they've sewn to their face.
Ha! ... my original draft wondered whether I'd be tutted at ... or perhaps a roll of the eyes. Or both!
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I'm sorry but there's no reasonable studies showing death rates at a rate of 10% to 35% compared to the unvaccinated. VE vs hospitalisation is between 94% and 98% not between 65% and 90%. The reduction in death rates is measuring at even higher, closer to 100% with the miniscule deaths of double-vaccinated people that are occuring being a rounding error from zero percent. See the chart in MaxPB's comment earlier: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3468376/#Comment_3468376
Even if we go on 98%, the estimated pre-vaccine CFR with our medical knowledge we have now is about 0.7% so now the approximate CFR post vaccines is about 0.014% or one in every more than 7000 people. Even if every single adult in the country got infected from here then that would be a death toll of fewer than 10,000 people which is less than a flu season could be.
If you want to shield then shield, but the level of risk now is at or below normal mainstream risks that every day life has normally.
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
I think its Iberian neighbour, Portugal, runs it very close.
I love the simplicity of Portuguese food, and cataplana is miles better than paella. But no. Spanish food operates on a different level. From Galicia to the Basque Country to extramadura to Barcelona to here, the Balearics, it is fantastico
The big question is why the French fell so far behind. Something to do with the overhang of their grand history, plus a move away from the highly sauced dishes for which they were famous, plus labour laws in France destroying the neighborhood bistro
Well now. I had the temerity to suggest that it's not unreasonable to remove all the legal restrictions now and my wife is so angry at me that she didn't thank me for cooking dinner. She as much as accused me of being in cahoots with Boris Johnson in a desire to murder restaurant staff. It's going to take a long time for people to adjust to the emergency being over.
Yep ... and to maarsh's point in the post before yours ... I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that some people have been literally brainwashed by propaganda ... it will take a long period of therapy to repair the damage.
I'm actually, pathetically, quite apprehensive about going into a shop again sans mask - what will people think? how will they react? What if they mistake my hayfever symptoms for COVID? Will the self-appointed COVID inspectors confront me?
Were you one of those who thought the restrictions were going to go on forever because the government and the scientists were determined to keep us all under the thumb?
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I love older people who had the chance to have social lives, find partners and settle down tell me how they have a dog in this fight. How noble they are whilst the young are having a whale of a time.
Do you not have the imagination to manage a social life, find a partner and settle down and wear a mask on the tube or a bus?
I'm not sure if that was a serious comment, but I can say for certain that I being stuck in my bedroom for 8 hours a day on Teams, with pubs, gyms, and other social activities closed has made it a damn sight more challenging.
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
Three weeks ago, I went to Yountville, home of the French Laundry.
We ate there. And it was good.
But it was nowhere near as good as the Tapas bar we ate at the previous evening.
This evening's announcements, while not unexpected and not unwelcome, leave me slightly troubled.
The world has changed, whether we like it or want it or not. I sense an undercurrent of trying to put the genie back in the bottle and party like it's on sale for £20.19 but the world has changed.
There won't be a mass return to offices, the way we live has been fundamentally changed not just by the virus but by the opportunities the virus presented to showcase different ways of working, shopping and having fun. That in its turn will have winners and losers and the losers will shout the loudest because they always do while the winners just carry on, er, winning.
Home deliveries, home shopping, home working - all a quite radical revolution which was perhaps happening any way but has been accelerated by the virus much in the same way war accelerates technological process.
The world has changed.
The other undercurrent which concerns me is the triumphalism of the anti-maskers. Yes, not having to wear masks on trains, buses, tubes and in supermarkets will be a relief (though I'd like to see the hand sanitiser kept available). However, what worries me is those who, for whatever reason, choose to continue to wear a mask.
It is absolutely their right so to do and that right must be respected - my fear is there will be incidents where individuals with masks are victimised and abused by those not wearing them. I hope I'm wrong but we know how "aggressive" crowds can be, especially when alcohol is involved.
I'm hoping the tolerant good nature of the British public will come to the fore and we'll respect those who choose to be more risk-averse (it's their life after all).
On a personal level, I quite like table service and ordering via an app at the pub - done it three or four times and much better than a scrum down at the bar. I'm also looking forward to going back horse racing - the horses always beat me - perhaps as soon as month end. The problem is the announcement has come in time to save that catastrophe of the modern age - the evening race meeting with the post-race tribute band. £40 for six moderate races and somebody sounding completely unlike Gary Barlow - it's an abomination, as somebody once said of Entertainment News.
Yes, the world has changed. It won’t go back to a 2019 like stage for a long while. A lot of people are going to be a lot more cautious, so we don’t really need the state imposing blanket caution on all of us
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
Italian food is incredible, very tough to beat if you're able to avoid eating pizza and pasta all the time. Calabrian food is, IMO, the best Europe has got to offer.
Hang on, doesn't this shoot the narrative fox of some on here that people will give up their masks?
The majority of Britons say face masks should continue to be mandatory on both public transport (71%), as well as in shops and some enclosed public spaces (66%) beyond when restrictions are lifted
70% of Britons say they'd feel less safe if in a crowded or un-ventilated place and people were not wearing face masks
This is the case among a majority of all age groups
Then those people can continue to wear them. That's the beauty of the policy. No one is saying you can't wear them if you want to do so.
Err, I think you've missed the entire point. The problem is whether other people are wearing masks.
Frankly I think it's completely barmy not continuing with compulsory masks on public transport, which can be very crowded and where many people don't have any choice but to use it. Also the staff are at risk. It's a virtually cost-free measure, it has zero negative impact on the economy (probably a positive impact, because many higher-risk people will be discouraged from using it if others aren't wearing masks), and it is the most trivial infringement on liberty which it is possible to imagine.
In other places it's a bit more nuanced; people sitting in a restaurant without masks, and having to put them on to find the loo, is a ridiculous charade. Shops should I think be left to the discretion of the owners, but with a strong recommendation for supermarkets to keep masks so that the elderly don't feel unsafe when doing essential shopping.
IT'S NOT COST FREE. If we force people to wear a mask they will make other choices. People who previously got public transport will drive or cycle instead. Public transport is on something of a precipice and needs to be made more attractive, not less.
Similarly shops. I'll continue to shop to stay alive of course. But I'm not going to shop for pleasure if I have to wear a mask to do so. I'll use the internet.
If masks work, and we need to wear them, so be it. But the benefit to the double jabbed is almost nil. We shouldn't have to wear them purely 'to make people feel safe'. This is what happens when you spend 18 months trying to terrify people into submission.
Only a tiny proportion of people are very fussed about wearing masks; it is after all the tiniest of tiny inconveniences. A far greater number are concerned about others NOT wearing masks. (See the polling on this). More importantly, the latter group are rational, the former group, not so much...
But no one's asking them to stop?
No, they are asking for the right to infect others unnecessarily.
Herd immunity remains the only way out of this situation, whether by vaccination or by catching the virus.
Quite possibly so, of course.
But for God's sake, how FOR FUCK'S SAKE wouldn't it make more sense to do it as much as possible by vaccination rather than infection?
Isn't that exactly what has been done? Everyone who wants it can now get it.
This is my problem in comprehending these "learned" discussions.
Do you not know - or do you not care - or what? - that a single dose has much less efficacy than two doses.
Ditto that the virus is currently spreading most rapidly through the age groups that are not being vaccinated, and for which vaccination is not even available here, whether they or their parents want it? In contrast with much of Europe?
But the loony herd mentality here will carry on banging the drum for the crazy policy of casting aside all caution and going for broke. And the crazies will carry on trying to ridicule anyone here with a different opinion. And the crazies now include some of the people running the site, apparently.
It's not crazy. We have reduced the CFR of COVID to approaching that of seasonal flu. Or even less. We have reduced it to an acceptable level of risk. Anyone worried about catching it on public transport can wear an FFP13 mask. Anyone worried about catching it in the pub, can not go to one. Personally I am looking forward to travelling home by train from Newcastle on the 19th unmasked (and having a few non-socially distanced drinks beforehand).
I would just say you really should think before coming out with the "COVID is no worse than flu" mantra.
If you can be vaccinated, and if the vaccine is effective, maybe it is. But what about the people who can't be vaccinated, or for whom the vaccine won't be effective?
Are you really saying it's too much trouble for you to wear a mask to protect people in that situation?
Yes, it's their personal responsibility to wear a mask which protects them. It's sad for them but the nation needs to move on from this and over time we will hit herd immunity and that final bit will go for them too.
I really thought everyone understood that the purpose of wearing masks was to protect other people from infection by the mask-wearer.
Please, please, please. Just be clear and just say "Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people".
"Yes, it's too much trouble to me to wear a mask to protect other people"
Masks are hot, stuffy and uncomfortable. People need to get their vaccine and rely on the vaccine to protect them, instead of relying upon me wearing a mask to protect them.
If you're unvaccinated and I asymptomatically pass you the virus then that's your own damned fault. If you're vaccinated then let the vaccine do its job, not masks.
What if someone is vaccinated and you asymptomatically pass it on to them and they then go down with it? A fried of mine was double vaxxed and still ended up with a nasty case of covid. It will happen to more and more people after restrictions have gone. Surely wearing a mask around Tesco's or wherever for an hour or so is not too great a sacrifice to help prevent that.
Shit happens. People get sick and die. It sucks but so be it.
The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus.
There's a risk of someone dying on the road on the way to Tesco's too. Life has risks.
Thank you Doctor.
Do you honestly disagree?
You stated; "The risk of someone vaccinated dying now is so miniscule that we'd have never started wearing masks or had a lockdown had that been the original pre-vaccine risk from the virus".
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
I love older people who had the chance to have social lives, find partners and settle down tell me how they have a dog in this fight. How noble they are whilst the young are having a whale of a time.
Let the old, the fat, and the stupid, die
Enough now. It’s just Darwinism. Otherwise we all starve
From what I gather we are of a similar age, we may even have brushed past each other in the Litchfield Vaults some forty years ago. So if my lack of youth takes me down, you could be next!
Sorry. I will stop posting these now. But it does all feel quite fin de regime. Or fin de siecle. Or just: fin?
I ended up feeling quite sorry for you after your naff tableware got such a going over. This is a lovely view and a marked improvement in quality of bakery.
Institutions that try to take everything online will eventually be destroyed by an Amazon College-type thing that provides a superior service at a fraction of the price. A supremely short-sighted approach.
Now that you raise the possibility I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't already happened.
It sort of has. The Open University, for instance. Or you can take MIT degrees over the web. What bricks-and-mortar universities offer is a finishing school, networking and a brand name. What links Boris and Gove and JRM is they went to Oxford and made connections there. If they just wanted to study Latin or English or History, they could have gone anywhere or, indeed, stayed at home.
But if lectures are online and tutorials by zoom call, then where is the social aspect, the networking? The brand name will last longer but even there lie dangers to the institution because if every aspiring mathematician can go to Cambridge, because there are no limits on Youtube lectures, then who needs Manchester or Oxford?
I'm not sure that traditional universities are quite under threat supposed. The proposition is for 'blended learning' - a mix of online and in person learning. Lectures are the aspect which are being shifted to recordings and online delivery. Seminars, lab work etc will remain delivered in person.
The other consideration is that even at the OU someone with the appropriate academic credentials has to assess the student's work. For many subjects Amazon or Google can't automate this process, at least for the foreseeable future.
Spanish food is fantastic. It is absolutely light years ahead of French food and probably about a mile ahead of Italian. It is the best food in the western world at the moment
I think its Iberian neighbour, Portugal, runs it very close.
I love the simplicity of Portuguese food, and cataplana is miles better than paella. But no. Spanish food operates on a different level. From Galicia to the Basque Country to extramadura to Barcelona to here, the Balearics, it is fantastico
The big question is why the French fell so far behind. Something to do with the overhang of their grand history, plus a move away from the highly sauced dishes for which they were famous, plus labour laws in France destroying the neighborhood bistro
The same reason England haven't won a major football tournament for 55 years and counting. Complacency.
Comments
Why the "hmm"?
Or more particularly enjoying the restrictions and working from home and distancing etc - bearing in mind excess deaths from the pandemic ended four whole months ago already.
I actually think Hodges talks more sense than jokes would suggest (which is not to say he always speaks sense), but I think he's making a bit of leap from people who he believes, in effect if not by word, argue that restrictions will not/should not end, to making that their motivation.
Those people may be being irrational to his mind, but their motivation is not as he presents. They may merely be self defeating - humans often are.
Some people have taken too seriously the "every death is a tragedy" philosophy and seem to think that we can actually abolish death. Death is part of the circle of life, an average of 1665 people die every single day in this country and 99% of those right now are not from Covid. There are fates worse than death, like spending months or years not living properly because of a crippling paranoid fear that things could get worse.
Sorry. I will stop posting these now. But it does all feel quite fin de regime. Or fin de siecle. Or just: fin?
And to be fair, I suspect there are some people on furlough who are really worried about the future, and I feel very sorry for them.
*coughs faintly but ominously*
Yes! I don't consider double vaccinated people catching the virus and dying at a rate of between 10% and 35% compared to the unvaccinated, depending on which vaccine has been administered and which study one believes, to be "miniscule".
So if wearing a mask drops the above percentages down to say between 8% and 30%, hell yes, it's worth considering wearing a mask. I am around 20 years older than you and thus more susceptible to dropping dead from Covid (or flu for that matter). I have a dog in this race.
God knows I'm not fan of the Conservatives but there's no particular reason to think anyone else would have done a better or worse job - it's just a thing that happened, we all muddled through it the best we could, we have a route back to some sort of normal now, move on. Yes, mistakes were made, but is there any reason to suspect other parties wouldn't have made the same mistakes, or different ones? Not really, no.
That's the problem here, people think that politicians can Do Things (TM) and make it all go away, and if it hasn't gone away that's because they didn't do the right Good Things and therefore must be incompetent. They might well be incompetent, but it's pretty unlikely there's anyone else who is competent to do the magic people want.
Bread & water, vinum oleumque.
As it was explained to me, it goes like this: we’re all aware that we reach herd immunity at the point where the fraction of people unprotected drops below one-over-R.
That is, with an R of 4, when the population unprotected is under 1/4, it cannot infect enough people to sustain an outbreak. With an R of 6, the fraction unprotected must decrease to 1/6. And so on.
The thing is - this doesn't happen like hitting a brick wall. If you have a large number infected to start with, the infection chains follow exponential decay. Every 100 infectees would infect, say, 99 more. They'd infect 98 more. And so on, and so on. So the number infected would take us past the herd immunity threshold.
How far past? Well, if you start at 10% short, apparently, you'll probably end up 10% overshooting. If you start 5% short, you'll overshoot by about 5%. And so on.
By taking the impact in summer, when R is up to (by some guesstimates) 30% lower (because with behavioural changes in the summer months - us being outside far more versus winter when we’re mingling indoors), we'll overshoot by less. And as R slowly and gradually increases between now and winter, the distance between where we are and the herd immunity threshold will continually be very low - so we'll overshoot by the minimum distance.
To put it another way - taking the wave in summer means fewer hospitalisations overall.
Ordered the extra engraving for my mum's other half of the parental vessel in the columbarium today (died pre-Covid).
Our local monumental mason says business was up 40% on last year in the spring, and that it has now calmed down, but there is still an 8-10 week lead time for orders to be done.
TBF 1-2 weeks of that are to get church authority authorisation of the text.
Their suggestion: We all go to to Pizza Hut and about 80% of them order a Hawaiian pizza.
I work with such arseholes.
Thus if the marking issue can be solved then your Ivy League and Russell Group institutions could continue to provide in person lectures and small group tuition at a premium price; medium and lower ranking unis would then go bust, or specialise in the aforementioned science and other practical disciplines.
Granted I've never taken taken holy communion, maybe fish is involved somewhere.
But if lectures are online and tutorials by zoom call, then where is the social aspect, the networking? The brand name will last longer but even there lie dangers to the institution because if every aspiring mathematician can go to Cambridge, because there are no limits on Youtube lectures, then who needs Manchester or Oxford?
Absolutely sensational
I fully support the full re-opening (and did predict it would happen 3 weeks ago!), but if I was over 50 with no vaccine I'd be pretty worried in a few weeks' time when case numbers hit the ceiling.
And it's people with really serious Covid infections who are most likely to nurture mutations. So, statistically, the likelihood is that the mutation will happen somewhere else.
They may end up partnering with places like MIT and Caltech now.
They are a big part of learning too.
I am this close to filing a grievance with HR.
It effectively showed its much better to reach herd immunity in small steps than a big one.
I'm actually, pathetically, quite apprehensive about going into a shop again sans mask - what will people think? how will they react? What if they mistake my hayfever symptoms for COVID? Will the self-appointed COVID inspectors confront me?
This evening's announcements, while not unexpected and not unwelcome, leave me slightly troubled.
The world has changed, whether we like it or want it or not. I sense an undercurrent of trying to put the genie back in the bottle and party like it's on sale for £20.19 but the world has changed.
There won't be a mass return to offices, the way we live has been fundamentally changed not just by the virus but by the opportunities the virus presented to showcase different ways of working, shopping and having fun. That in its turn will have winners and losers and the losers will shout the loudest because they always do while the winners just carry on, er, winning.
Home deliveries, home shopping, home working - all a quite radical revolution which was perhaps happening any way but has been accelerated by the virus much in the same way war accelerates technological process.
The world has changed.
The other undercurrent which concerns me is the triumphalism of the anti-maskers. Yes, not having to wear masks on trains, buses, tubes and in supermarkets will be a relief (though I'd like to see the hand sanitiser kept available). However, what worries me is those who, for whatever reason, choose to continue to wear a mask.
It is absolutely their right so to do and that right must be respected - my fear is there will be incidents where individuals with masks are victimised and abused by those not wearing them. I hope I'm wrong but we know how "aggressive" crowds can be, especially when alcohol is involved.
I'm hoping the tolerant good nature of the British public will come to the fore and we'll respect those who choose to be more risk-averse (it's their life after all).
On a personal level, I quite like table service and ordering via an app at the pub - done it three or four times and much better than a scrum down at the bar. I'm also looking forward to going back horse racing - the horses always beat me - perhaps as soon as month end. The problem is the announcement has come in time to save that catastrophe of the modern age - the evening race meeting with the post-race tribute band. £40 for six moderate races and somebody sounding completely unlike Gary Barlow - it's an abomination, as somebody once said of Entertainment News.
Enough now. It’s just Darwinism. Otherwise we all starve
Even if we go on 98%, the estimated pre-vaccine CFR with our medical knowledge we have now is about 0.7% so now the approximate CFR post vaccines is about 0.014% or one in every more than 7000 people. Even if every single adult in the country got infected from here then that would be a death toll of fewer than 10,000 people which is less than a flu season could be.
If you want to shield then shield, but the level of risk now is at or below normal mainstream risks that every day life has normally.
The big question is why the French fell so far behind. Something to do with the overhang of their grand history, plus a move away from the highly sauced dishes for which they were famous, plus labour laws in France destroying the neighborhood bistro
We ate there. And it was good.
But it was nowhere near as good as the Tapas bar we ate at the previous evening.
Good Spanish food is amazing.
You are a young sports star in a hot tub at a party having survived a pandemic.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/ice-hockey/57725848
The other consideration is that even at the OU someone with the appropriate academic credentials has to assess the student's work. For many subjects Amazon or Google can't automate this process, at least for the foreseeable future.