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The betting moves sharply to the Tories in Batley and Spen – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    On Hancock, I really couldn't care less who he shags; that's his business.

    But in my, and others', experience, having a clandestine extra-marital affair is extraordinarily time consuming and complex. I'm not sure how this fits with Hancock's repeated rhetoric of 'working round the clock', 'working 24/7', and so on to defeat the pandemic. How on earth could he find the time to sustain his marriage, have his affair, and defeat Covid without breaking lockdown rules? Baffling.

    maybe he is "Mr Quickie"?
    Maybe they'll turn it into a TV series.

    Hancock's Half Hour.
    Updated to The Sperm Donor.

    "It may be just a dribble to you mate, but that’s ecstasy for some lucky lady!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    The minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum, not a maximum.
    Yes, but it is at a level that prevents exploitation.

    It seems though that the problem in so many sectors is lack of workers with the right skills rather than their pay. We shall see soon enough if the market plugs the gap. Personally, I will be quite happy for exploitative capitalist employers go bust because of Labour demands.

    Indeed, the bar on EU doctors looks like giving me as much leverage on overtime rates as I want. Wasn't that the point of Brexit, to empower sturdy British yeomen like myself?
    Well you guys are amongst the best paid and pensioned in Europe even though the BMA has convinced the Great British Public (they that can never be gulled) you are overworked and underpaid lol!
    And by cutting out the foreign competition looking likely to be better still. Locum rates are going through the roof, if you can find one in the first place.
    Can't blame you for being pleased. Perhaps you can tell the BMA you have had a "Brexit dividend" and tell them to stop moaning?
    I am not in the BMA, who are a shite bunch of government lickspittles.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Harry Cole saying that none exec directors have been increasingly used by Gov ministers to get effectively extra SPADs without the normal recruitment issues.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    BigRich said:

    moonshine said:

    Matt Hancock is gonna be the luckiest bastard ever if the Americans announce aliens are real in the report tonight.

    Unluckily for him they will not. He’s finished, how could he lead a covid press conference ever again. Gone by the 6 O Clock news.

    Given Boris's history of Affairs, it will be hard to sack Hancock, for having an afire.
    "how could he lead a covid press conference ever again"

    If he stays Johnson and SAGE can forget ordering an autumn lockdown.

    No one will listen to a word they say anymore.

    Liars and hypocrites.

    Enough.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    The minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum, not a maximum.
    Yes, but it is at a level that prevents exploitation.

    It seems though that the problem in so many sectors is lack of workers with the right skills rather than their pay. We shall see soon enough if the market plugs the gap. Personally, I will be quite happy for exploitative capitalist employers go bust because of Labour demands.

    Indeed, the bar on EU doctors looks like giving me as much leverage on overtime rates as I want. Wasn't that the point of Brexit, to empower sturdy British yeomen like myself?
    Well you guys are amongst the best paid and pensioned in Europe even though the BMA has convinced the Great British Public (they that can never be gulled) you are overworked and underpaid lol!
    And by cutting out the foreign competition looking likely to be better still. Locum rates are going through the roof, if you can find one in the first place.
    Can't blame you for being pleased. Perhaps you can tell the BMA you have had a "Brexit dividend" and tell them to stop moaning?
    I am not in the BMA, who are a shite bunch of government lickspittles.
    That last remark is quite inaccurate.

    The BMA are actually a shite bunch of self serving lickspittles, who sell their arses to the government on occasion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    So plenty of things that could have been done within the EU to improve productivity and prevent labour exploitation, if the government had been arsed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    How do you even get access to cctv footage like that? In the hours and hours of footage you would have specifically to go looking for something for something like that. Not something to stumble upon.

    I’m sure security keeps a note of anything interesting as they watch it live
    That’s a serious allegation. Government security monitoring ministers.
    I was meaning the security guy in the room with all the cameras on screen.

    (Does that actually happen or is it just in movies?)

    Not security with a capital S
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Because vaccines work. Get jabbed, people!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    On this trip I spent a few days operating out of Yatton in Zummerzet. Cheddar is not far away so its got the whole tourist thing on the doorstep. Roads are horribly cramped for the traffic in them and the villages even more so.

    Had a quick look at property prices - £300k just about gets you into something tiny. For anything more substantial its half a million. How the hell do people afford that?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    BBC article now up…. And top of the most read list;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57608716
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    If Hancock’s lover was both aide and lobbyist, what was she lobbying for?

    I believe she started as an aide in September 2020, and was later appointed as a non-exec to the Health Department’s board.

    What was/is the appointments process for either role?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    isam said:

    On Hancock, I really couldn't care less who he shags; that's his business.

    But in my, and others', experience, having a clandestine extra-marital affair is extraordinarily time consuming and complex. I'm not sure how this fits with Hancock's repeated rhetoric of 'working round the clock', 'working 24/7', and so on to defeat the pandemic. How on earth could he find the time to sustain his marriage, have his affair, and defeat Covid without breaking lockdown rules? Baffling.

    In normal times it shouldn’t matter. But he has been warning people off hugging close family, or interacting with work colleagues without wearing a mask etc, and here he is snogging/shagging a woman who lives in a different house, with her family etc. It’s about 100 times worse than Cummings trip to Durham
    Good point. Cummings broke the rules but was at least with his own nuclear family.

  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242

    On Hancock, I really couldn't care less who he shags; that's his business.

    But in my, and others', experience, having a clandestine extra-marital affair is extraordinarily time consuming and complex. I'm not sure how this fits with Hancock's repeated rhetoric of 'working round the clock', 'working 24/7', and so on to defeat the pandemic. How on earth could he find the time to sustain his marriage, have his affair, and defeat Covid without breaking lockdown rules? Baffling.

    maybe he is "Mr Quickie"?
    Maybe they'll turn it into a TV series.

    Hancock's Half Hour.
    Or Hancock's Half Minute
    That small?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    On this trip I spent a few days operating out of Yatton in Zummerzet. Cheddar is not far away so its got the whole tourist thing on the doorstep. Roads are horribly cramped for the traffic in them and the villages even more so.

    Had a quick look at property prices - £300k just about gets you into something tiny. For anything more substantial its half a million. How the hell do people afford that?

    Existing equity?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

    Is anyone pretending otherwise.

    Seems to be working as intended so far and the only ones complaining are those content to use unlimited below market labour are now having to face the consequences of the decisions freely made to end that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    edited June 2021

    On this trip I spent a few days operating out of Yatton in Zummerzet. Cheddar is not far away so its got the whole tourist thing on the doorstep. Roads are horribly cramped for the traffic in them and the villages even more so.

    Had a quick look at property prices - £300k just about gets you into something tiny. For anything more substantial its half a million. How the hell do people afford that?

    The people buying are selling in London.

    And the people buying in London are being given big mortgages.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    The minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum, not a maximum.
    Yes, but it is at a level that prevents exploitation.

    It seems though that the problem in so many sectors is lack of workers with the right skills rather than their pay. We shall see soon enough if the market plugs the gap. Personally, I will be quite happy for exploitative capitalist employers go bust because of Labour demands.

    Indeed, the bar on EU doctors looks like giving me as much leverage on overtime rates as I want. Wasn't that the point of Brexit, to empower sturdy British yeomen like myself?
    Should skilled workers be on minimum wage? Would you be happy to earn minimum wage yourself?
    I’m currently earning minimum wage. 🤷‍♂️
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    If Hancock’s lover was both aide and lobbyist, what was she lobbying for?

    I believe she started as an aide in September 2020, and was later appointed as a non-exec to the Health Department’s board.

    What was/is the appointments process for either role?

    She went to uni with Hands Hancock.

    That is the recruitment process. No doubt whichever Oxbridge college they went to has excellent undergraduate recruitment processes.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    On Hancock, I really couldn't care less who he shags; that's his business.

    But in my, and others', experience, having a clandestine extra-marital affair is extraordinarily time consuming and complex. I'm not sure how this fits with Hancock's repeated rhetoric of 'working round the clock', 'working 24/7', and so on to defeat the pandemic. How on earth could he find the time to sustain his marriage, have his affair, and defeat Covid without breaking lockdown rules? Baffling.

    maybe he is "Mr Quickie"?
    Maybe they'll turn it into a TV series.

    Hancock's Half Hour.
    Or Hancock's Half Minute
    Plenty of gags on Twitter. Hands, Face, Arse is good. But I really loved the caption put on Little Britain's politician apology skit: https://twitter.com/Adcramps/status/1408304256130682881

    “On Thursday evening after a successful day of saving lives and protecting the NHS, I walked in to my office to see Gina choking on a throat swab from our world beating test and trace kits. I immediately tried to dislodge it with my tongue to save her life…”

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    The UK has a much freer labour market than France.
    No merde Sherlock !!

    ( I was going to say Hercule, but then I knew someone would point out he was Belgian)
    I see you haven't encountered the methodologies of the French labour market.

    - There are considerable incentives to invest in equipment.
    - hiring people in general is problematic and risky. Very easy to end up with employees you can't get rid of.
    - Outside Paris, using too much* immigrant labour on your building site will result in violence and destruction of your property**

    *Yes, I know
    **Remember the burning sheep lorries. Like that....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.
    Coffee’s not cheaper though…
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    Sandpit said:

    My 19 year old daughter has had her first dose now. I do feel that this is nearly over for us now.

    My 20 year old son had his yesterday, pleased to say.
    Awesome to hear of the youngsters getting vaccines. It’s genuinely nearly over.
    Not sure whether Grandson 2, aged 18 has actually had his first dose, but he's booked up for it. Working in a restaurant for the summer, near his home and seems very happy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    ping said:

    BBC article now up…. And top of the most read list;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57608716

    Some of the memes coming out of this are incredible.

    Great craic from Hancock
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Those figers aren't quite as good as they first look, 6 months ago there where lots of cases/deaths/hepatisations, and very little vaccination, not its the other way round, if you brock that 6 month block in to 6 one month blocks, the numbers would still show vaccines to be very efficient but not quite as good.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.
    Coffee’s not cheaper though…
    Costa makes coffee?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Dura_Ace said:

    On Hancock, I really couldn't care less who he shags; that's his business.

    But in my, and others', experience, having a clandestine extra-marital affair is extraordinarily time consuming and complex. I'm not sure how this fits with Hancock's repeated rhetoric of 'working round the clock', 'working 24/7', and so on to defeat the pandemic. How on earth could he find the time to sustain his marriage, have his affair, and defeat Covid without breaking lockdown rules? Baffling.

    maybe he is "Mr Quickie"?
    You still have to keep on top of the cover stories, forensics and keep knocking the nail in on the home front to allay suspicion. Nah, it ain't for the quitter.
    Perhaps he thought it would get his boss's admiration? maybe he thought that imitation is the highest form of flattery and all that, but perhaps took it a bit far when he asked if he could have a turn on Carrie?
    That reveals that you have a rather misogynistic view of the world
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    If Hancock’s lover was both aide and lobbyist, what was she lobbying for?

    I believe she started as an aide in September 2020, and was later appointed as a non-exec to the Health Department’s board.

    What was/is the appointments process for either role?

    You have to interview on your back?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    BigRich said:

    moonshine said:

    Matt Hancock is gonna be the luckiest bastard ever if the Americans announce aliens are real in the report tonight.

    Unluckily for him they will not. He’s finished, how could he lead a covid press conference ever again. Gone by the 6 O Clock news.

    Given Boris's history of Affairs, it will be hard to sack Hancock, for having an afire.
    "how could he lead a covid press conference ever again"

    If he stays Johnson and SAGE can forget ordering an autumn lockdown.

    No one will listen to a word they say anymore.

    Liars and hypocrites.

    Enough.
    I understand Queen Anne is dead, too.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    Very silly. Somewhat similar to people wearing skirts that were invented by an Anglo-German royal family in the belief they were traditional Scottish highland dress.
    Brilliant response
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    Very silly. Somewhat similar to people wearing skirts that were invented by an Anglo-German royal family in the belief they were traditional Scottish highland dress.
    You've been reading too many southern experts on Scotch things.

    Re the Spitfire socks - isn't that degrading and shameful to the pilots of the squadrons? (And let's also remember those in the Hurricanes, and Defiants, and so on ...).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    Quite simply, until quite recently, people were cheaper than machines in the UK. And when people break, you simply get another one. No capital cost....

    The situation in France is that, due to the inflexibility of the labour market, it is cheaper to buy machinery than hire people.

    The combination of the closing off of much of the cheap labour sources from COVID (which has had a bigger effect than BREXIT, to date, I think) and the recent tax break on buying equipment has changed this in the UK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Because the French insisted immigrants learnt French and didn’t compromise. English was seen as a more valuable skill/many immigrants has some already plus we were ok with, for example, Polish speaking workplaces
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Labour seem to be going on the 'how was she recruited?' question.

    Never mind that. Mr Hands and Space has broken the covid rules.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited June 2021

    New variant report is out from @PHE_uk
    Secondary attack rate has been updated, delta is 35% higher than alpha in this weeks report.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1408347594913239042?s=20

    Which encouragingly is towards the lower end of some estimates:

    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/five-things-we-know-about-delta-coronavirus-variant-and-two-things-we-still-need

    Seems to be a common theme. Sage puts out a very high number (60%+) then weeks later it turns out to be a gross overestimate. Yet the original big number is already out there, and in the public consciousness.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118

    ping said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    There’s a great oddlots podcast on this - US focussed, but many of the issues are similar here.

    Basically, being a driver ain’t all it’s cracked up to be. Razor thin margins. Constant boom/bust cycles.
    In the US, it's mostly owner-operators. I.e., you want to be an HGV driver, you take the risk of owning the vehicle - even if you use someone else's brand.

    Is it the same in the UK?
    Yeah, it’s fascinating how little consolidation there is in US trucking. Also how Private Equity has steered clear of the sector. Seems to be lots of individual truck owner/drivers who suffer large turnover - and most of the rest are small companies, a sizeable chunk of which go bust every year.

    Dunno about the specifics of UK freight and how it compares.
    I think there are quite a few owner-operators. AIUI all that has to be bought is the tractor unit vehicle..... the one with the engine and the cab. The driver then hitches it up to a loaded trailer.

    Edit..... when I recalled the correct name.
    Usually done on finance as it can be 6 figures.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,240
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    So plenty of things that could have been done within the EU to improve productivity and prevent labour exploitation, if the government had been arsed.
    More unionisation and regulation of the Labour Market? That's not a CBA, that's a deliberate rejection.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812
    Foxy said:

    If Hancock’s lover was both aide and lobbyist, what was she lobbying for?

    I believe she started as an aide in September 2020, and was later appointed as a non-exec to the Health Department’s board.

    What was/is the appointments process for either role?

    You have to interview on your back?
    I didn't know that the Sun reportage was THAT detailed. Unless there is more CCTV footage to he had.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    F1: Turkey added back to the calendar as a replacement for Singapore:
    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1408349773153832960
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Sandpit said:

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Because vaccines work. Get jabbed, people!
    Vaccines work. Get jabbed.

    That should be the one and only public health message now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    The UK has a much freer labour market than France.
    No merde Sherlock !!

    ( I was going to say Hercule, but then I knew someone would point out he was Belgian)
    C. Auguste Dupin, c'est la mot juste.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?

    Because, like the fishermen, they have realised the government lied to them.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    edited June 2021

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    Quite simply, until quite recently, people were cheaper than machines in the UK. And when people break, you simply get another one. No capital cost....

    The situation in France is that, due to the inflexibility of the labour market, it is cheaper to buy machinery than hire people.

    The combination of the closing off of much of the cheap labour sources from COVID (which has had a bigger effect than BREXIT, to date, I think) and the recent tax break on buying equipment has changed this in the UK.
    So, the verdict from the PB Tories is that unionisation and Labour market regulation could have prevented Labour exploitation and improved productivity growth before Brexit, but isn't needed now in the sunny uplands.

    🤔
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Labour seem to be going on the 'how was she recruited?' question.

    Never mind that. Mr Hands and Space has broken the covid rules.

    Hand Cock Arse Ooer

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    edited June 2021
    BigRich said:

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Those figers aren't quite as good as they first look, 6 months ago there where lots of cases/deaths/hepatisations, and very little vaccination, not its the other way round, if you brock that 6 month block in to 6 one month blocks, the numbers would still show vaccines to be very efficient but not quite as good.
    ?????....if lots of cases months ago because of lower vaccination coverage that is surely even better i.e. we are seeing virtually no vaccine escape.and they are reaching herd immunity.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    F1: Turkey added back to the calendar as a replacement for Singapore:
    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1408349773153832960

    Istanbul in October - the weather every day will be very different.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I did like this sentence from the Sun's hatchet job:

    He was seen kissing her at the Department of Health’s London HQ during office hours last month as the mutant strain began spreading.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    The minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum, not a maximum.
    Yes, but it is at a level that prevents exploitation.

    It seems though that the problem in so many sectors is lack of workers with the right skills rather than their pay. We shall see soon enough if the market plugs the gap. Personally, I will be quite happy for exploitative capitalist employers go bust because of Labour demands.

    Indeed, the bar on EU doctors looks like giving me as much leverage on overtime rates as I want. Wasn't that the point of Brexit, to empower sturdy British yeomen like myself?
    Should skilled workers be on minimum wage? Would you be happy to earn minimum wage yourself?
    I’m currently earning minimum wage. 🤷‍♂️
    But you’ll likely spend the next decade getting £10k annual pay rises.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

    Is anyone pretending otherwise.

    Seems to be working as intended so far and the only ones complaining are those content to use unlimited below market labour are now having to face the consequences of the decisions freely made to end that.

    As I say, I can afford to pay higher prices and I knew that we were being lied to when we were told that Brexit would make food cheaper and increase consumer choice.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????

    Most probably because many of the shadow cabinet have been up to similar stuff!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. eek, can't recall the timing last year but it was wet, very slippery, and very entertaining.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I did like this sentence from the Sun's hatchet job:

    He was seen kissing her at the Department of Health’s London HQ during office hours last month as the mutant strain began spreading.

    The king of double entendres
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Brillo is 'taking a break' from Gammon Boomer News. I wonder if it's health related. The revolting fucker looks like he's being force fed so his liver can be made into pâté.

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    What fresh hell is this?! Those machine gun ports are the wrong size, and position, for a Spit armed with cannon. Looks like there's 8 Brownings (two Hurricane-sized banks of four) per wing plus the cannon in that illustration. Amateurs. And guns that close to the wing tip? Appalling.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887
    edited June 2021

    Jonathan said:

    The story is that someone with access to government cctv is out to get Hancock. Who is it and were they encouraged?

    Hunt?
    Not his style. Who might be someone who is uncomfortable about sacking people but might think Hancock is "fucking hopeless"
    It's got to be Cummings. A man who can hoodwink 52% of the country with nothing more than a couple of props a buffoon and a scant regard for truth is what is known in the whacky world of advertising as a genius.

    Getting rid of a couple of useless employees of government such as Hancock and Johnson will be child's play
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    Quite simply, until quite recently, people were cheaper than machines in the UK. And when people break, you simply get another one. No capital cost....

    The situation in France is that, due to the inflexibility of the labour market, it is cheaper to buy machinery than hire people.

    The combination of the closing off of much of the cheap labour sources from COVID (which has had a bigger effect than BREXIT, to date, I think) and the recent tax break on buying equipment has changed this in the UK.
    So, the verdict from the PB Tories is that unionisation and Labour market regulation could have prevented Labour exploitation and improved productivity growth before Brexit, but isn't needed now in the sunny uplands.

    🤔

    It's a puzzler, isn't it?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
    Because Liar has opened the market to be flooded by cheap Australian imports which our high cost farming industry can't compete with. Its almost as if the Blue Labour Cult of which you are a flag-waving member (a) don't care about farming and (b) are clueless about it. The Conservative Party of old used to be an advocate for its natural base, whatever happened to it?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    BigRich said:

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Those figers aren't quite as good as they first look, 6 months ago there where lots of cases/deaths/hepatisations, and very little vaccination, not its the other way round, if you brock that 6 month block in to 6 one month blocks, the numbers would still show vaccines to be very efficient but not quite as good.
    ?????....if lots of cases months ago because of lower vaccination coverage that is surely even better i.e. we are seeing virtually no vaccine escape.and they are reaching herd immunity.
    I'm saying the numbers above 99.6%, 98.7% and 99.8% cover a 6 month time frame, in which a lot has changed. but if you brock that out and just looked at each month and the % for each, then the indavidul % would be lower, at least for the last few.

    I'm not shore I'm very good at explaining this. but a bit complex to construct a worked example.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,352

    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????

    Most probably because many of the shadow cabinet have been up to similar stuff!
    Didn't stop them with skewering Major over the family values stuff.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    Mr. eek, can't recall the timing last year but it was wet, very slippery, and very entertaining.

    Are we talking about the grand prix or the Secretary of State for Health?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,963
    edited June 2021

    New variant report is out from @PHE_uk
    Secondary attack rate has been updated, delta is 35% higher than alpha in this weeks report.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1408347594913239042?s=20

    Which encouragingly is towards the lower end of some estimates:

    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/five-things-we-know-about-delta-coronavirus-variant-and-two-things-we-still-need

    Seems to be a common theme. Sage puts out a very high number (60%+) then weeks later it turns out to be a gross overestimate. Yet the original big number is already out there, and in the public consciousness.
    I think some people suggested at the time the early data may well be over estimating things because it was seeded in communities high in multi-generational households / very close family bonds and after returning from travel to India meeting up with the fam to inform them of situation in India, which isn't the representative situation of the average wider population.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.

    Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.

    It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.

    Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
    And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
    I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.

    It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.

    The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
    Citation required.

    There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.

    Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
    This is an absolutely crucial point.

    Maybe 50% of people think leaving was an error.

    But of these, perhaps only 60% would vote to rejoin in a referendum.

    And of these, it is of overriding importance to maybe a third of these.
    Quite a few Don't Knows too.

    But I don't expect it to be in the manifesto of any major English party at the next GE, though EEA may well be LD policy.
    Joining the EEA was of course, would be very similar to the policy which had a 2-1 majority in the 1975 referendum. Which, as I recall, was a generally truthful campaign. And enthusiastically supported by, among others, the Daily Mail.

    My wife reports fresh food shortages when she returns from shopping trips. Nothing major, admittedly; niggles.

    I suspect that if and when people can go on holiday to Europe again there will be similar niggles and inconveniences; the return of roaming charges is an example. Maybe longer passport queues.
    I expect the biggest issue is likely to be the labour shortages. Road haulage being the big one at the moment, but it is a big slice of the NHS staffing issues too.
    Yes the shortage isn't due to getting fresh across the border as we have simply taken back control by implementing very few checks on anything coming in - you can get randomly busted for stuff the customs officers want to eat, but otherwise it sails through for now.

    The shortage is a crippling lack of drivers thanks to the combination of IR35 and Forrin go home
    Alof of the foreigners going home are also IR35 related as previously there were able to pocket the money almost tax free - a lot of those drivers really don't want to be on HMRC books.

    It should be added that the industry has asked for HGV driving to be added to the Labour shortage list and the Home Office has explicitly said No and given that everyone needs to be registered by next Wednesday bringing drivers back from Europe isn't a solution any more.
    Is this a shortage of people wanting to be HGV drivers, or a shortage of trained ones? If the latter, there is an obvious solution for employers.
    A shortage of trained drivers. Covid has largely stopped new driver training, which combined with an exodus of forrin drivers leaving and others unable / unwilling to drive under IR35 makes for a massive shortage.

    "Just pay more" isn't the issue, a lot of people don't want to drive a truck which is why migrant labour was increasingly needed.

    It's now a Mexican standoff. A hugely expensive overhaul of both wages and conditions are needed to attract people in so that the shortage doesn't get worse next year (this year is already fucked). But nobody can afford to pay as logistics is already crippled with high costs post BREXIT in an industry where the haulage bit was already the thin margins bit. The supermarkets are trying to recover from the extraordinary costs of Covid and have to cut costs for their new investors (Asda and soon Morrisons) and the manufacturing sector is similarly befuddled

    Coats going up. Ability to swallow costs going down. Ultimately food price inflation is going to take off like a rocket.
    Then we find a new price equilibrium. So what?
    In the log run? Sure. Its just going to be very bumpy whilst we get there. Food being thrown away whilst supermarkets have shortages isn't a good outcome. That your government refuse to accept there is an issue doesn't help.
    There isn't an issue.

    ASDA not wanting to pay more is not the same thing as not being able to pay more.

    If the government just opens the gates again and let's anyone in for minimum wage then yes the problem will go away. But considering YOUR PARTY is against homes for people coming in how is that a solution?

    The issue will go away when a new equilibrium is reached under the law. If that causes disruption then businesses need to stop whinging that they want people to work for free negligible wages and start paying a market wage instead.

    And we all need to be ready to pay the higher prices that will lead to.

    Fine.

    I don't want my products to be cheap solely because the people working on the chain to get them aren't earning a living wage.

    We could have cheaper products by ensuring more stuff is made in sweatshops, is that what you want?
    Eh? Brexit promised us cheaper food mate. Clearly that was more bollocks
    Stay in the EU so we can exploit foreign workers

    Quite catchy
    There was some exploitation, as there still will be, but most of it was eastern Europeans doing jobs Brits didn't want.
    Mostly skill and Labour shortages, after all any EU labour was paid the minimum wage, at least, so not exploited.

    We shall shortly see how keen Britons are to work in logistics, hospitality, in health and social care and agriculture. They cannot work in them all simultaneously.
    Two pointers to what will happen.

    1) The building industry is finally investing in the lower level automation that, for example, the French use. If you look at a French domestic building site, it doesn't take much before they put up a small crane to move stuff around. UK sites just use a chain of Polish blokes. Mini diggers are finally taking over alot of manual digging... etc etc.

    Interesting that you cite French building sites as better productivity. It's almost as if free movement of Labour within the EU doesn't account for the lamentable stagnation of productivity here. If free movement of Labour wasn't a drag on French productivity, why was it so here?

    Unionisation? Just a guess but I seem to recall the French labour market is rather more restricted.
    Quite simply, until quite recently, people were cheaper than machines in the UK. And when people break, you simply get another one. No capital cost....

    The situation in France is that, due to the inflexibility of the labour market, it is cheaper to buy machinery than hire people.

    The combination of the closing off of much of the cheap labour sources from COVID (which has had a bigger effect than BREXIT, to date, I think) and the recent tax break on buying equipment has changed this in the UK.
    So, the verdict from the PB Tories is that unionisation and Labour market regulation could have prevented Labour exploitation and improved productivity growth before Brexit, but isn't needed now in the sunny uplands.

    🤔
    Sigh.

    The problem is about balance. The system was somewhat in equilibrium. Then essentially unlimited low skill, low cost labour was added to the system. The system found a new equilibrium. The result of that new equilibrium was BREXIT.

    I voted Remain and have tried to highlight this issue over many years.

    A relative in the building industry tried to get enforcement of standards (including minimum wage) in London. And was told, by an MP under a Labour government, that administrative* policy was to ignore this. He was told the same, later, under the coalition government.

    *Meaning the low level policy enacted by the permanent structures of government, rather than a political decision.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

    Is anyone pretending otherwise.

    Seems to be working as intended so far and the only ones complaining are those content to use unlimited below market labour are now having to face the consequences of the decisions freely made to end that.

    As I say, I can afford to pay higher prices and I knew that we were being lied to when we were told that Brexit would make food cheaper and increase consumer choice.

    Lord Frost is still claiming that Brexit will increase consumer choice.

    His one-hour interview with Anand Menon last night is on YouTube and worth watching.

    He smirks a lot when asked about our approach to the Northern Irish Protocol.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????

    Cos Starmer was (allegedly) having it away with Baroness Chapman?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
    Nonsense. The UK is a highly educated country which spends billions on education.

    Importing people who have skills does increase the average, hence the skills list for immigration including things like Doctors.
    Importing people who don't but are willing to work for minimum wage does not.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
    Because Liar has opened the market to be flooded by cheap Australian imports which our high cost farming industry can't compete with. Its almost as if the Blue Labour Cult of which you are a flag-waving member (a) don't care about farming and (b) are clueless about it. The Conservative Party of old used to be an advocate for its natural base, whatever happened to it?
    You only have to look at the cost cutting to the British Council yesterday to see that Boris and Co understand the price of everything and the (longer term) value of nothing.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
    Nonsense. The UK is a highly educated country which spends billions on education.

    Importing people who have skills does increase the average, hence the skills list for immigration including things like Doctors.
    Importing people who don't but are willing to work for minimum wage does not.
    The average EU migrant was better skilled than the average U.K. worker.

    Prove me wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
    Nonsense. The UK is a highly educated country which spends billions on education.

    Importing people who have skills does increase the average, hence the skills list for immigration including things like Doctors.
    Importing people who don't but are willing to work for minimum wage does not.
    The average EU migrant was better skilled than the average U.K. worker.

    Prove me wrong.
    If that's the case then why were so many earning minimum wage?

    You're making the claim, you prove it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Leon said:

    isam said:


    I was very skeptical that the Tories would take B&S (but then I was also disbelieving that they would take 'Pool)

    But, the flare-up in Israel/Palestine came at a perfect time for GG to exploit it. Now, I would not be at all surprised to see Labour lose it because of GG.

    But the point is: B&S was a completely unnecessary by-election.

    SKS may be forensic. But, he is just useless at politics, which needs a certain grubby street wisdom.

    The Jewish Chronicle reports that Muslims in B&S are boycotting Labour because

    Labour’s position on Palestine
    Kim Leadbetter is a lesbian
    Sir Keir’s wife is Jewish

    Cultural Diversity is to be applauded I suppose?

    The inevitable endpoint of Wokeness and multi-kulti and CRT is people voting almost entirely on their race and identity, as that is all that ‘matters’

    So Muslims will abandon Labour for a Gallowayish Muslim Party

    And, in the end, many white people will vote for white pride and a White Party. It is already happening in the USA. We hurtle towards tragedy
    So happy to live in a country with a welcoming policy towards migrants
    If Scotland is such a wecoming country towards migrants, why do so few of them end up there?
    My part of the north east is rammed full of them. The supermarkets have a significant selection of foods to cover the Polish and Russian communities, there's a fair number of English, we have Hungarian and Latvian kids in my daughter's rural primary school class etc etc
    After growing up in London moving to Devon was a bit jarring, and Edinburgh is much the same. Sure, there are Polish food shops, but the statistics are quite clear that there's a lot less immigration to Scotland than England.

    The answer as to why has nothing to do with how welcoming Scotland is, but is the same reason why Scotland's population has declined relative to England's for decades - London's economy is much stronger.
    The SNP like to spin this myth of "difference" from England (but not Wales or Northern Ireland, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    The Tories like to spin this myth of "difference" from Europe (but not New Zealand or Canada, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited June 2021

    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????

    It's been a few hours, give them a chance. Probably waiting to see how/if the gov will seek to deflect or defend
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Brillo is 'taking a break' from Gammon Boomer News. I wonder if it's health related. The revolting fucker looks like he's being force fed so his liver can be made into pâté.

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    What fresh hell is this?! Those machine gun ports are the wrong size, and position, for a Spit armed with cannon. Looks like there's 8 Brownings (two Hurricane-sized banks of four) per wing plus the cannon in that illustration. Amateurs. And guns that close to the wing tip? Appalling.
    No aerial mast, which was standard by the time the fuselage band came in (which should be Sky, not white). Aren't those code letters white rather than Medium Sea Grey? And isn't that a later mark of Merlin, with those exhausts and enlarged upper engine cowling on each side?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

    Is anyone pretending otherwise.

    Seems to be working as intended so far and the only ones complaining are those content to use unlimited below market labour are now having to face the consequences of the decisions freely made to end that.

    As I say, I can afford to pay higher prices and I knew that we were being lied to when we were told that Brexit would make food cheaper and increase consumer choice.

    It is bringing in cheaper food and more consumer choice, we've just got a free trade deal with Australia to provide that and are negotiating with even more countries putting them on a level playing field rather than just having European imports.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
    Because Liar has opened the market to be flooded by cheap Australian imports which our high cost farming industry can't compete with. Its almost as if the Blue Labour Cult of which you are a flag-waving member (a) don't care about farming and (b) are clueless about it. The Conservative Party of old used to be an advocate for its natural base, whatever happened to it?

    Johnson has opened the UK market up to Aussie importers while making it much harder for farmers to export to the huge market on their doorstep. He lied to them, just as he lied to the fishing industry. It's what he does. Half the people in the country don't care. Because of the way they are distributed, it means the views of the other 50% are entirely irrelevant!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mutti's farewell tour:

    Holidays on agenda? Downing Street: “Chancellor Merkel will visit UK on Fri 2nd July. The Prime Minister will host her at Chequers. This will be a chance to discuss a range of issues, including deepening UK-Germany relationship & the global response to the coronavirus pandemic.”

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1408356947083026438?s=20

    TBF I think the UK has played a very straight bat on this - much to the fury of much of the media and the travel industry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
    Because Liar has opened the market to be flooded by cheap Australian imports which our high cost farming industry can't compete with. Its almost as if the Blue Labour Cult of which you are a flag-waving member (a) don't care about farming and (b) are clueless about it. The Conservative Party of old used to be an advocate for its natural base, whatever happened to it?

    Johnson has opened the UK market up to Aussie importers while making it much harder for farmers to export to the huge market on their doorstep. He lied to them, just as he lied to the fishing industry. It's what he does. Half the people in the country don't care. Because of the way they are distributed, it means the views of the other 50% are entirely irrelevant!

    No lies. He said that we'd get free trade deals with Australia and other nations, and said we'd leave the Single Market.

    We've left the Single Market and got a free trade deal. Exactly as he said would happen!!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    NEW THREAD
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BigRich said:



    I'm saying the numbers above 99.6%, 98.7% and 99.8% cover a 6 month time frame, in which a lot has changed. but if you brock that out and just looked at each month and the % for each, then the indavidul % would be lower, at least for the last few.

    I'm not shore I'm very good at explaining this. but a bit complex to construct a worked example.

    A simple way of explaining it is that, if 99% percent of people were unvaccinated during the period, then even if the vaccines were totally ineffective, around 99% of cases would still be in the unvaccinated.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Brillo is 'taking a break' from Gammon Boomer News. I wonder if it's health related. The revolting fucker looks like he's being force fed so his liver can be made into pâté.

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    What fresh hell is this?! Those machine gun ports are the wrong size, and position, for a Spit armed with cannon. Looks like there's 8 Brownings (two Hurricane-sized banks of four) per wing plus the cannon in that illustration. Amateurs. And guns that close to the wing tip? Appalling.
    ....and the propeller isn't even moving
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    Leon said:

    isam said:


    I was very skeptical that the Tories would take B&S (but then I was also disbelieving that they would take 'Pool)

    But, the flare-up in Israel/Palestine came at a perfect time for GG to exploit it. Now, I would not be at all surprised to see Labour lose it because of GG.

    But the point is: B&S was a completely unnecessary by-election.

    SKS may be forensic. But, he is just useless at politics, which needs a certain grubby street wisdom.

    The Jewish Chronicle reports that Muslims in B&S are boycotting Labour because

    Labour’s position on Palestine
    Kim Leadbetter is a lesbian
    Sir Keir’s wife is Jewish

    Cultural Diversity is to be applauded I suppose?

    The inevitable endpoint of Wokeness and multi-kulti and CRT is people voting almost entirely on their race and identity, as that is all that ‘matters’

    So Muslims will abandon Labour for a Gallowayish Muslim Party

    And, in the end, many white people will vote for white pride and a White Party. It is already happening in the USA. We hurtle towards tragedy
    So happy to live in a country with a welcoming policy towards migrants
    If Scotland is such a wecoming country towards migrants, why do so few of them end up there?
    My part of the north east is rammed full of them. The supermarkets have a significant selection of foods to cover the Polish and Russian communities, there's a fair number of English, we have Hungarian and Latvian kids in my daughter's rural primary school class etc etc
    After growing up in London moving to Devon was a bit jarring, and Edinburgh is much the same. Sure, there are Polish food shops, but the statistics are quite clear that there's a lot less immigration to Scotland than England.

    The answer as to why has nothing to do with how welcoming Scotland is, but is the same reason why Scotland's population has declined relative to England's for decades - London's economy is much stronger.
    The SNP like to spin this myth of "difference" from England (but not Wales or Northern Ireland, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    The Tories like to spin this myth of "difference" from Europe (but not New Zealand or Canada, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    I'm not sure that pointing that out refutes anything though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Mr. eek, can't recall the timing last year but it was wet, very slippery, and very entertaining.

    Was in November last year, wet and dry during the race. The race where Lewis won the championship, his car at the end looked like it had done a 24 hour race.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207
    edited June 2021

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Brillo is 'taking a break' from Gammon Boomer News. I wonder if it's health related. The revolting fucker looks like he's being force fed so his liver can be made into pâté.

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    What fresh hell is this?! Those machine gun ports are the wrong size, and position, for a Spit armed with cannon. Looks like there's 8 Brownings (two Hurricane-sized banks of four) per wing plus the cannon in that illustration. Amateurs. And guns that close to the wing tip? Appalling.
    Interesting - I can only see the 2 cannon. Unless you mean those red patches on the leading edges, which look more like the yellow you see on the outer wings in some painting schemes. But with the colour wrong.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    The problem is that because of the use of a conveyor-belt* of low end workers from low cost countries, you can suppress wages below a sustainable level**.

    Hence MHO (may adults living in a property) etc etc...

    *They come in on the lowest end jobs, either move up and replaced, leave or get stuck in the shitty conditions.
    **Sustainable in the sense of actually living a decent life.

    That may well be an issue. But let's not pretend that limiting labour supply is not going to have an impact on consumer choice and the prices that consumers pay. As I say, in some areas that will not matter. When it comes to basics, though, it will.

    Is anyone pretending otherwise.

    Seems to be working as intended so far and the only ones complaining are those content to use unlimited below market labour are now having to face the consequences of the decisions freely made to end that.

    As I say, I can afford to pay higher prices and I knew that we were being lied to when we were told that Brexit would make food cheaper and increase consumer choice.

    It is bringing in cheaper food and more consumer choice, we've just got a free trade deal with Australia to provide that and are negotiating with even more countries putting them on a level playing field rather than just having European imports.

    Of course!!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Leon said:

    isam said:


    I was very skeptical that the Tories would take B&S (but then I was also disbelieving that they would take 'Pool)

    But, the flare-up in Israel/Palestine came at a perfect time for GG to exploit it. Now, I would not be at all surprised to see Labour lose it because of GG.

    But the point is: B&S was a completely unnecessary by-election.

    SKS may be forensic. But, he is just useless at politics, which needs a certain grubby street wisdom.

    The Jewish Chronicle reports that Muslims in B&S are boycotting Labour because

    Labour’s position on Palestine
    Kim Leadbetter is a lesbian
    Sir Keir’s wife is Jewish

    Cultural Diversity is to be applauded I suppose?

    The inevitable endpoint of Wokeness and multi-kulti and CRT is people voting almost entirely on their race and identity, as that is all that ‘matters’

    So Muslims will abandon Labour for a Gallowayish Muslim Party

    And, in the end, many white people will vote for white pride and a White Party. It is already happening in the USA. We hurtle towards tragedy
    So happy to live in a country with a welcoming policy towards migrants
    If Scotland is such a wecoming country towards migrants, why do so few of them end up there?
    My part of the north east is rammed full of them. The supermarkets have a significant selection of foods to cover the Polish and Russian communities, there's a fair number of English, we have Hungarian and Latvian kids in my daughter's rural primary school class etc etc
    After growing up in London moving to Devon was a bit jarring, and Edinburgh is much the same. Sure, there are Polish food shops, but the statistics are quite clear that there's a lot less immigration to Scotland than England.

    The answer as to why has nothing to do with how welcoming Scotland is, but is the same reason why Scotland's population has declined relative to England's for decades - London's economy is much stronger.
    The SNP like to spin this myth of "difference" from England (but not Wales or Northern Ireland, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    The Tories like to spin this myth of "difference" from Europe (but not New Zealand or Canada, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    The separatists won that referendum......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
    Nonsense. The UK is a highly educated country which spends billions on education.

    Importing people who have skills does increase the average, hence the skills list for immigration including things like Doctors.
    Importing people who don't but are willing to work for minimum wage does not.
    Or, even worse, importing people who are skilled to work in unskilled jobs, because it pays more than skilled jobs in their home countries.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited June 2021
    Carnyx said:





    C. Auguste Dupin, c'est la mot juste.

    le mot

    See me after class. I've got plenty of time as I no longer prepare students for the EU Commission language test.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    13m
    The law that was in place on 6th May says clearly: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 2 area which—(a)consists of two or more people, and (b)takes place indoors.” There are lots of exemptions but none that would seem to apply to kissing a colleague.


    THIS.

    Why are Labour not going for the kill on this????

    Most probably because many of the shadow cabinet have been up to similar stuff!
    Didn't stop them with skewering Major over the family values stuff.
    Fair point.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    So basically you are saying that companies were using immigration from Europe to suppress wages?

    There absolutely was competition from Europe, but that was more EU registered trucks filling up with cheap French diesel, doing a load of jobs here then going back again. Trucking like so many other industries only really opened the doors to migrant labour when there was a shortage of locals.

    Some of that shortage will be driven by wages but also by conditions. The wages piece really becomes a problem now thanks to the IR35 changes where freelance drivers are suddenly treated as employees - the big spike in costs can't / won't be met anywhere in the supply chain so people have quit.
    There is no shortage of locals, there's a shortage of locals willing to work on the terms and conditions that some employers want to pay. The solution to that is to let the market find a new equilibrium of terms and conditions.

    If elements of the supply chain can't compete with higher costs then they'll go out of business and cease to require transport. So the problem goes away. Or they actually can absorb the costs, so they do, so the problem goes away.

    Either way your "disruption" is actually the chaos of the market working as it is supposed to do. Not a problem.

    Placing artificial barriers on the market's proper functioning - by, for example, limiting the supply of available labour - ultimately harms the consumer. That's basically OK if it means there are fewer coffee shops, restaurants and hotels to choose from, even if its reduces the numbers who can afford to enjoy them, but it's not fine if it prevents food getting into shops or makes it more expensive to buy. That's why, in the end, the government will quietly ensure that it doesn't happen, so interfering with the market even more.

    It won't happen. People will pay what they need to pay for food, so the shops will pay what they need to pay to stock it. The rest is fluff.

    Just because businesses would prefer to pay less doesn't mean they won't pay more if they realise there is no alternative.

    My local Tesco's now has a Costa Coffee machine. Indeed they seem to be everywhere nowadays. Not as much need for actual coffee shops or baristas making coffees for minimum wage if a machine can do it instead.

    Obviously people will pay what they need to in order not to starve. But they were told food was going to be cheaper and in more plentiful supply. And that's why the government will be forced to act. Making life more expensive when it can easily be prevented is never popular.

    So why are all the farmers complaining about Australian competition?
    Because Liar has opened the market to be flooded by cheap Australian imports which our high cost farming industry can't compete with. Its almost as if the Blue Labour Cult of which you are a flag-waving member (a) don't care about farming and (b) are clueless about it. The Conservative Party of old used to be an advocate for its natural base, whatever happened to it?

    Johnson has opened the UK market up to Aussie importers while making it much harder for farmers to export to the huge market on their doorstep. He lied to them, just as he lied to the fishing industry. It's what he does. Half the people in the country don't care. Because of the way they are distributed, it means the views of the other 50% are entirely irrelevant!

    No lies. He said that we'd get free trade deals with Australia and other nations, and said we'd leave the Single Market.

    We've left the Single Market and got a free trade deal. Exactly as he said would happen!!!!

    He said there would be no downsides to leaving the single market and that farmers and fishermen would benefit from it happening. He lied. It's what he does. But, as I say, it doesn't matter: 50% of the population is like you and will forgive him anything. Because of the way you are distributed around the country it really doesn't matter what the other 50% believes.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,032
    Sandpit said:

    I was angry when Cummings broken the rules to have a holiday in Barnard Castle and I'm angry now.

    Be interesting to see what the snap polling shows on the public view of this.


    I'm not a fan of Question Time these days, but I watched the first question last night, which was about letting in UEFA big-wigs, sponsors and so on the watch the UEFA Cup Final. All, I think, except one of the audience, and he was somewhat half-hearted, thought it was wrong, and only Robert Buckland ..... well, he had to to, didn't he ...... of the panel defended it. He wasn't all that keen either.

    Similar in the pub the other afternoon...... except of course that RB wasn't there!

    I am beginning to feel that 'peak Boris' has passed, and things are going downhill quite rapidly. Might give a new dimension to B&S, too.
    Interestingly, on my shopping trip out yesterday, I noticed for the first that mask wearing was starting to slip. Several people (men mainly) had them on but pushed down under their chins so it was pointless. To date my patch has been pretty strict on the rules from what I've seen. Things are starting to slip.

    I wonder whether the rows over the elite being exempted all over the place are part of this?

    Isn’t more that people are starting to click that ‘positive tests’ aren’t translating into deaths, and that the vaccines - guess what?! - work?
    Los Angeles County says nearly all coronavirus cases over the past 6 months were in those who weren't vaccinated:

    - Cases: 99.6% unvaccinated
    - Hospitalized: 98.7% unvaccinated
    - Deaths: 99.8% unvaccinated

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1408222055607242757?s=19

    While Sydney is going into lockdown again.
    Because vaccines work. Get jabbed, people!
    I think with a couple of nutty exceptions you're preaching to the choir here.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I feel very sorry for the double vaccinated this morning.

    Matt Hancock was the captain of the 'team' you were taking those vaccines for.

    He was the captain of the 'team' you all made enormous sacrifices for.

    How high up the his agenda was firing and indulging his sexual proclivities, versus 'safety' or any other priority...?

    I of course would argue it was top of his agenda.

    It wasn't what he was telling you to do, it was the fact he was telling you. It was the enormous power we gave him to affect the lives of ordinary people. He got off on it, and there were powerful forces that surely led him to not wanting to relinquish it.

    As for the government not wanting you in lockdown 'a minute' longer than necessary, well, that argument, once an article of faith on here, has been atomised for ever.|

    If you aren't annoyed this morning well, you will never be annoyed by anything the powerful do, ever.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,352

    Leon said:

    isam said:


    I was very skeptical that the Tories would take B&S (but then I was also disbelieving that they would take 'Pool)

    But, the flare-up in Israel/Palestine came at a perfect time for GG to exploit it. Now, I would not be at all surprised to see Labour lose it because of GG.

    But the point is: B&S was a completely unnecessary by-election.

    SKS may be forensic. But, he is just useless at politics, which needs a certain grubby street wisdom.

    The Jewish Chronicle reports that Muslims in B&S are boycotting Labour because

    Labour’s position on Palestine
    Kim Leadbetter is a lesbian
    Sir Keir’s wife is Jewish

    Cultural Diversity is to be applauded I suppose?

    The inevitable endpoint of Wokeness and multi-kulti and CRT is people voting almost entirely on their race and identity, as that is all that ‘matters’

    So Muslims will abandon Labour for a Gallowayish Muslim Party

    And, in the end, many white people will vote for white pride and a White Party. It is already happening in the USA. We hurtle towards tragedy
    So happy to live in a country with a welcoming policy towards migrants
    If Scotland is such a wecoming country towards migrants, why do so few of them end up there?
    My part of the north east is rammed full of them. The supermarkets have a significant selection of foods to cover the Polish and Russian communities, there's a fair number of English, we have Hungarian and Latvian kids in my daughter's rural primary school class etc etc
    After growing up in London moving to Devon was a bit jarring, and Edinburgh is much the same. Sure, there are Polish food shops, but the statistics are quite clear that there's a lot less immigration to Scotland than England.

    The answer as to why has nothing to do with how welcoming Scotland is, but is the same reason why Scotland's population has declined relative to England's for decades - London's economy is much stronger.
    The SNP like to spin this myth of "difference" from England (but not Wales or Northern Ireland, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    The Tories like to spin this myth of "difference" from Europe (but not New Zealand or Canada, for some curious reason). Almost all the data says attitudes are much more similar than different - but that does not suit the separatist's narrative.
    Yes, that's why I oppose English nationalists and Scottish nationalists.

    The inconsistency of some choosing one form of nationalism as superior to another is bizarre.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Foxy said:


    At what time are we supposed to break out the singing of "four legs good, two legs bad" or whatever the patriotic song of the day is?

    Whatever time it is, one should be suitably attired. It's ok lads, you don't have to wear them on your feet.


    Very silly. Somewhat similar to people wearing skirts that were invented by an Anglo-German royal family in the belief they were traditional Scottish highland dress.
    Brilliant response
    And you with your own Big G tartan. Perhaps as a good Unionist you could get Spitfire kilt socks made up?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    edited June 2021

    Foxy said:



    Actually, fewer and fewer youngsters bother to learn to drive at all:

    https://roadsafetygb.org.uk/news/n-a-5870/

    I was desperate to get out on the roads, but neither Fox Jr nor any of their cousins seems bothered, and it isn't just about living in big cities.

    I recruited for a reasonably well-paid job, for which one applicant said he'd refuse if we required him to come to the office more than once a fortnight, as there was no public transport link and he felt the climate impact of driving more often would be unacceptable. Didn't appear to be an excuse - he was very into climate issues generally. And I'm aware of several people who have told their employers that they'd like to go to meetings by train even if it takes longer, for the same reason. I have a middle-aged friend who loves travel but has said she will never fly again unless required to for work. The issue does seem to be cutting through gradually.
    Interesting one.

    My standard question to find if someone is actually serious and thoughtful about the issue is to ask a couple of questions:

    1 - What is the EPC value of your house? (band, then number)
    2 - How much energy does your house use every year?

    A bit of consciousness raising, but also a very common blindspot. The two sectors where we have not heavily decarbonised are transport and residential. And of these, residential is the tough one, as there is a general dislike of investing in our own homes, and far too many demand government subsidies.

    The average C02 put out by a house is around 5 tonnes a year. The average carbon footprint for a UK individual is now down to 5 tonnes a year, which is approx the world average.

    This really has changed very quickly indeed in this country.

    One flying person business class return to NY is more than the average UK person's emissions for an entire year.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887

    I did like this sentence from the Sun's hatchet job:

    He was seen kissing her at the Department of Health’s London HQ during office hours last month as the mutant strain began spreading.

    It's got to be Cummings. Far too smart for a sub editor at the Sun
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Apparently the national HGV driver shortage is causing some councils to suspend certain weekly bin collections...

    That will DEFINITELY cut through!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    tlg86 said:

    British productivity can basically be reduced to poor incentives for capital investment, and a low-skilled workforce.

    Single market membership helped compensate for the latter, somewhat.

    By supplying the low-skilled workforce.
    Not really.
    I suspect rather that the net impact was to increased the average skill level.
    Nonsense. The UK is a highly educated country which spends billions on education.

    Importing people who have skills does increase the average, hence the skills list for immigration including things like Doctors.
    Importing people who don't but are willing to work for minimum wage does not.
    The average EU migrant was better skilled than the average U.K. worker.

    Prove me wrong.
    If that's the case then why were so many earning minimum wage?

    You're making the claim, you prove it.
    Migrants from Central and Eastern Europe had more hours of average schooling than the average British native worker.

    There’s lots of good stuff here which, by the way, basically undermines pretty much anything you’ve ever posted on this subject.

    The government’s report on the economic impact of EEA immigration (2018):

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF

    (Similar to your fact-free postings on the housing market).
This discussion has been closed.