In a very thin market, Galloway has drifted from 20 to 24 in the last couple of minutes, possibly as a result of the spreadsheet calculations on this thread!
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
It’s 3.2m on there I think Robert only counted the males. Works out about 6%
I was very skeptical that the Tories would take B&S (but then I was also disbelieving that they would take 'Pool)
But, the flare-up in Israel/Palestine came at a perfect time for GG to exploit it. Now, I would not be at all surprised to see Labour lose it because of GG.
But the point is: B&S was a completely unnecessary by-election.
SKS may be forensic. But, he is just useless at politics, which needs a certain grubby street wisdom.
The Jewish Chronicle reports that Muslims in B&S are boycotting Labour because
Labour’s position on Palestine Kim Leadbetter is a lesbian Sir Keir’s wife is Jewish
Cultural Diversity is to be applauded I suppose?
The inevitable endpoint of Wokeness and multi-kulti and CRT is people voting almost entirely on their race and identity, as that is all that ‘matters’
So Muslims will abandon Labour for a Gallowayish Muslim Party
And, in the end, many white people will vote for white pride and a White Party. It is already happening in the USA. We hurtle towards tragedy
Yes I think that is exactly what will happen. If/when Muslims stop voting for Labour, an Islamic party will step into the vacuum. In 20 years or so they will probably be one of the big three parties and dominate inner cities
Watching ‘The Road to Partition’ the other night it struck me again that Muslims could well end up getting a part of the country the way Protestants got Northern Ireland, in 50-100 years time
Well, 4.4% of the UK population is Muslim, so that probably is your ceiling for vote share.
So, I'm not sure they can make it up to SNP levels of support. Or even LibDem or Green.
Ten seats where they are over 30%. Depending on the split of the opposition (presumably this would mainly cost labour votes), and possibly differential turnout (They might become quite energised as a community if there was a reasonable chance of winning) then quite a few of those ten could be in contention.
This wouldn't be a happy development for the Labour Party, as it would be another splintering of it's voter coalition. It's probably an inevitable splintering - I can't imagine that a Labour party which spends most of its time worrying about misgendering people on twitter has a lot in common with many Muslim votes. What's less inevitable is where that vote goes instead - one can imagine several other scenarios than where an explicitly Muslim party appears.
Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities. Spain are in a bit; Germany out a smidge as they face the mighty England on Tuesday.
1 France 5.5 18.2% 2 England 7.6 13.2% 3 Italy 8.2 12.2% 4= Germany 8.4 11.9% 4= Spain 8.4 11.9% 6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5% 7 Belgium 11.5 8.7% 8 Portugal 16 6.2% 9 Denmark 22 4.5% 10 Sweden 70 1.4% 11 Croatia 80 1.2% 120 bar.
England are way too short a price. Italy, Belgium, Netherlands all much better teams than England.
I think possibly a function of the lopsided nature of the draw. Italy Belgium (or Portugal) will be a QF. However. You are right. Holland should be the shortest in the bottom half. By some way, given that only one of England Germany will make the last 8.
Probably the biggest growth faith category will be No Religion. For all the god stuff we hear daily from various religions here, the UK is among the least religious nations on Earth.
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities. Spain are in a bit; Germany out a smidge as they face the mighty England on Tuesday.
1 France 5.5 18.2% 2 England 7.6 13.2% 3 Italy 8.2 12.2% 4= Germany 8.4 11.9% 4= Spain 8.4 11.9% 6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5% 7 Belgium 11.5 8.7% 8 Portugal 16 6.2% 9 Denmark 22 4.5% 10 Sweden 70 1.4% 11 Croatia 80 1.2% 120 bar.
England are way too short a price. Italy, Belgium, Netherlands all much better teams than England.
England is in the easiest half of the draw. The other half contains France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal. We are narrow favourites to beat Germany on Tuesday. Their defence is shocking – Hungary scored twice against them! – but there is always the danger England will go a goal up, park the bus and concede in the last few minutes.
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
It’s 3.2m on there I think Robert only counted the males. Works out about 6%
3.3 / 69m = 4.9%
Yes but the population in that table isnt 69m, so you can’t divide the 3.3 by it
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
However. That does reduce their effectiveness as a bloc vote. For now at least.
Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities. Spain are in a bit; Germany out a smidge as they face the mighty England on Tuesday.
1 France 5.5 18.2% 2 England 7.6 13.2% 3 Italy 8.2 12.2% 4= Germany 8.4 11.9% 4= Spain 8.4 11.9% 6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5% 7 Belgium 11.5 8.7% 8 Portugal 16 6.2% 9 Denmark 22 4.5% 10 Sweden 70 1.4% 11 Croatia 80 1.2% 120 bar.
England are way too short a price. Italy, Belgium, Netherlands all much better teams than England.
England is in the easiest half of the draw. The other half contains France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal. We are narrow favourites to beat Germany on Tuesday. Their defence is shocking – Hungary scored twice against them! – but there is always the danger England will go a goal up, park the bus and concede in the last few minutes.
That is true, Holland should actually be much much shorter based on the lopsided draw. They don't have to beat any world class teams to get to the final.
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities. Spain are in a bit; Germany out a smidge as they face the mighty England on Tuesday.
1 France 5.5 18.2% 2 England 7.6 13.2% 3 Italy 8.2 12.2% 4= Germany 8.4 11.9% 4= Spain 8.4 11.9% 6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5% 7 Belgium 11.5 8.7% 8 Portugal 16 6.2% 9 Denmark 22 4.5% 10 Sweden 70 1.4% 11 Croatia 80 1.2% 120 bar.
England are way too short a price. Italy, Belgium, Netherlands all much better teams than England.
England is in the easiest half of the draw. The other half contains France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal. We are narrow favourites to beat Germany on Tuesday. Their defence is shocking – Hungary scored twice against them! – but there is always the danger England will go a goal up, park the bus and concede in the last few minutes.
That is true, Holland should actually be much much shorter based on the lopsided draw. They don't have to beat any world class teams to get to the final.
Yes. Someone (sorry!) a couple of threads back suggested Wijnaldum as top scorer (24 on Betfair). Raheem Sterling at 70 is not out of it if England does proceed. He already has two goals. But the top scorer market is also a bet on Portugal being knocked out: Ronaldo has five and is odds-on.
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Yeah, but now I've done the math, I think the real number is about 5.2-5.3%. So, to make money, I need there to be a premium to that.
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Yeah, but now I've done the math, I think the real number is about 5.2-5.3%. So, to make money, I need there to be a premium to that.
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
It’s 3.2m on there I think Robert only counted the males. Works out about 6%
3.3 / 69m = 4.9%
Yes but the population in that table isnt 69m, so you can’t divide the 3.3 by it
I know. I was jokingly trying to get the number to exactly the figure I'd used earlier.
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Yeah, but now I've done the math, I think the real number is about 5.2-5.3%. So, to make money, I need there to be a premium to that.
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Yeah, but now I've done the math, I think the real number is about 5.2-5.3%. So, to make money, I need there to be a premium to that.
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
1.5 million doesn't sound right at all. It was 2.5 million in 2011 census. It doesn't seem likely that it has gone down by 1 million in the 8 years between the 2011 and that 1.5 ONS figure.
That's because I can't add up, and only included the women.
I was going to say.....I know Brexit is like well racist and the Tories are all a bunch of Islamophobes, but I highly doubt half the Muslim population of the UK upped and left.
I wouldn't be surprised in the census if it a reasonable amount north of 3.5m now.
Pushing 7% I’d say
Look at the total Christian to Muslim split and compare with the under 16 split
Something like 89-11 and 81-19
So you think 7%. So, would you buy at £1,000 a 0.1 percentage point at 6%?
I’d rather buy at the price you offered to sell at
Yeah, but now I've done the math, I think the real number is about 5.2-5.3%. So, to make money, I need there to be a premium to that.
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities. Spain are in a bit; Germany out a smidge as they face the mighty England on Tuesday.
1 France 5.5 18.2% 2 England 7.6 13.2% 3 Italy 8.2 12.2% 4= Germany 8.4 11.9% 4= Spain 8.4 11.9% 6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5% 7 Belgium 11.5 8.7% 8 Portugal 16 6.2% 9 Denmark 22 4.5% 10 Sweden 70 1.4% 11 Croatia 80 1.2% 120 bar.
England are way too short a price. Italy, Belgium, Netherlands all much better teams than England.
England is in the easiest half of the draw. The other half contains France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal. We are narrow favourites to beat Germany on Tuesday. Their defence is shocking – Hungary scored twice against them! – but there is always the danger England will go a goal up, park the bus and concede in the last few minutes.
That is true, Holland should actually be much much shorter based on the lopsided draw. They don't have to beat any world class teams to get to the final.
Yes. Someone (sorry!) a couple of threads back suggested Wijnaldum as top scorer (24 on Betfair). Raheem Sterling at 70 is not out of it if England does proceed. He already has two goals. But the top scorer market is also a bet on Portugal being knocked out: Ronaldo has five and is odds-on.
Ronaldo is a poor bet. Consider this. He is 2 ahead of Lukaku at 6's. From what I've seen Belgium ought to be substantial favourite to knock Portugal out. And Belgium will score goals in every game they play. They have Martinez as manager, and an ageing defence they can't rely on. Lukaku will get a fair proportion of those. Ronaldo may win it anyway with the total he has.. Or Portugal may prove me wrong and go deep. But that is shocking value, despite his current lead.
I was just thinking how the Overton window has shifted, a Conservative government has just implemented a very costly advertising ban (for tv companies and ad agencies) and mostly met with a shrug.
"the Government’s own impact assessment suggests that over 25 years the restrictions will cost broadcasters £1.5 billion, online platforms £3.5 billion, advertising agencies £550 million, and retailers and manufacturers of HFSS products will see their profits reduced by £659 million."
Whatever it is, I hope he gets the care he needs and gets better soon.
Xx
He complained of suffering chest pains and feeling hot. He said he had phoned 111 and they said somebody would get back to him. Dr Foxy (and others less medically qualified) said don't mess about with that, get to A&E straight away.
Goodness! I hope he ignored 111 and went straight to hospital.
I was just thinking how the Overton window has shifted, a Conservative government has just implemented a very costly advertising ban (for tv companies and ad agencies) and mostly met with a shrug.
"the Government’s own impact assessment suggests that over 25 years the restrictions will cost broadcasters £1.5 billion, online platforms £3.5 billion, advertising agencies £550 million, and retailers and manufacturers of HFSS products will see their profits reduced by £659 million."
Wow. George Galloway exposed, or what? He tries to dodge what Natalia Antelava says here. She doesn't have a problem with him debating with Steve Bannon or shaking hands afterwards. That's not what she says at all.
Probably the biggest growth faith category will be No Religion. For all the god stuff we hear daily from various religions here, the UK is among the least religious nations on Earth.
It depends how you quantify agnostics. For some reason the census doesn't give this as a choice.
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
However. That does reduce their effectiveness as a bloc vote. For now at least.
That isn't that comforting. When I lived in London, I went from hardly ever seeing a niqab to seeing multiple every time I went down the Kilburn High Road. I don't like that trend being projected forward another twenty years.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock 'is having affair' with his closest aide, 43, after pair were caught on camera having a passionate clinch outside his Whitehall office
Wow. George Galloway exposed, or what? He tries to dodge what Natalia Antelava says here. She doesn't have a problem with him debating with Steve Bannon or shaking hands afterwards. That's not what she says at all.
The two photos on top of this thread are enough. I'm embarrassed I'd suggested he might be an interesting choice to liven up parliament. There aren't two more dislikable 'influencers' than Bannon and Farage. George has a singular talent for mixing with monsters.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock 'is having affair' with his closest aide, 43, after pair were caught on camera having a passionate clinch outside his Whitehall office
Whereas I came in twice on bets at C&A, this one in Batley & Spen is something I'm steering clear of.
The circumstances are very different. This is fertile tory territory in terms of their northern love bombing and the vile Lord Farquaard aka George Galloway throws a serious curve ball at the Labour vote.
He also, however, provides them with a get out of jail card. 'We lost because of Galloway' neatly does the opposite of what the imp wished: it secures Starmer more time, not less.
The likely tory win is also helpful for the LibDems and all others attempting to win the south. The more the tories win ooooop north, the less their chances down south.
So all-in-all this result won't be as bad for Labour and the LibDems as it may seem to the excitables on here.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock 'is having affair' with his closest aide, 43, after pair were caught on camera having a passionate clinch outside his Whitehall office
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
Which suggests that Muslims are having a lot more babies, right?
Ah... Not really. If you look at the number of under 16 Muslims compared to the number in the 20 to 40 range, to get a good estimate of the total fertility rate, you get 1.8, which is more than the 1.6 for Christians, but is hardly outbreeding the locals by a meaningful amount.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
Which suggests that Muslims are having a lot more babies, right?
Ah... Not really. If you look at the number of under 16 Muslims compared to the number in the 20 to 40 range, to get a good estimate of the total fertility rate, you get 1.8, which is more than the 1.6 for Christians, but is hardly outbreeding the locals by a meaningful amount.
Just to add, the reason that one third of Muslims are below the age of 16 is because there are very few old Muslims, and lots of old Christians.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The affair was with his closest aid hired in the pandemic and clearly was a distraction to dealing with covid
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The optics are dreadful
Though not as bad as anyone using that hideous piece of geek-speak which has slithered its way through consoles and into forums like this.
On topic, it's just another example of the Daily Malicious stirring. I really couldn't give a toss who Matt Hancock is bonking. It may be sad for his wife (I don't know) but we don't elect politicians to be bishops. Whether it's someone he hired before, during, or after a health scare is an utter irrelevance.
He can shag whomever he likes so long as he does the job.
Not the most neutral headline I've ever seen on Sky News:
"Analysis The accidental by-election: How Labour triggered another divisive vote for the people of Batley and Spen This vote may prompt drama in Westminster but focus should be paid to the repercussions for the people in the constituency itself.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The optics are dreadful
Though not as bad as anyone using that hideous piece of geek-speak which has slithered its way through consoles and into forums like this.
On topic, it's just another example of the Daily Malicious stirring. I really couldn't give a toss who Matt Hancock is bonking. It may be sad for his wife (I don't know) but we don't elect politicians to be bishops. Whether it's someone he hired before, during, or after a health scare is an utter irrelevance.
He can shag whomever he likes so long as he does the job.
I think you will find the populace at large would not share your view
And I have no idea what you are talking about re the quote that the optics are dreadful
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The optics are dreadful
Though not as bad as anyone using that hideous piece of geek-speak which has slithered its way through consoles and into forums like this.
On topic, it's just another example of the Daily Malicious stirring. I really couldn't give a toss who Matt Hancock is bonking. It may be sad for his wife (I don't know) but we don't elect politicians to be bishops. Whether it's someone he hired before, during, or after a health scare is an utter irrelevance.
He can shag whomever he likes so long as he does the job.
optics
It's an awful piece of North American geek-speak. Leave the word 'optics' for scientific descriptions about binoculars, telescopes and sight. If something looks bad, that's all that needs to be written.
As for the population, if it were true that extra-marital sex led to public demands for the perpetrators' heads we wouldn't have witnessed Boris Johnson winning a landslide 18-months ago. People seem to enjoy reading salacious tittle-tattle but in terms of voting intention it has no relevance. Mary Whitehouse is dead.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
No he doesn't. Your boy Johnson has shifted the dial on the required standards of financial and sexual probity in public life. You voted for and enabled it so it's a bit much to be going Baxter Basics on it now.
It's the like the 90s all over again with tory sleaze. I might put my Dinosaur Jr t-shirt on and go for a rip in my 993 vert.
52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
55% now apparently.
I think you're probably right.
The south may be the most fertile territory, which means that he could do what Johnson has done in reverse. Johnson left London for the north and that means that the capital and surrounds are vulnerable to attack, albeit in alliance with the LibDems.
He could steal the traditional tory mantle. Do a Blair-Mandleson and really go all guns blazing in a vicious counter attack along the lines of:
WHY SHOULD THE SOUTH PAY FOR NORTHERN VANITY PROJECTS?
If he really goes at that with a low taxation low spending anti-housebuilding alternative for southern Britain he will get a huge amount of support.
The trouble is, I think he's a bit too principled and not enough political. The LibDems know how to play dirty but I don't think Starmer does.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The affair was with his closest aid hired in the pandemic and clearly was a distraction to dealing with covid
The optics are dreadful
So what. These things happen especially in these sorts of contexts. You really have no idea whether it affected his performance or not. Either way having an affair is in itself not grounds for resignation.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The affair was with his closest aid hired in the pandemic and clearly was a distraction to dealing with covid
The optics are dreadful
So what. These things happen especially in these sorts of contexts. You really have no idea whether it affected his performance or not. Either way having an affair is in itself not grounds for resignation.
The affair was with his recent aide and will be seen in that light
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
The Daily Mail are hoping that voters get so distracted by his shagging that they lose sight of the fact that he's a completely rubbish Minister of health.
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
He won't be sacked for it but it is fair comment that his aide will need to leave her post
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. The true number of Remainers in the UK is perhaps 30%, and of these, maybe only a third really, really, really care. So the LDs (if they are solely the party of Remain) are fishing in a pool of maybe 10% of the population.
But the death of Remain is probably good news for the LDs. It means they can revert to their traditional role of "I hate [x], and I'd never vote for [y], and the LDs seem like nice fellows so I'll lend them my vote."
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
He won't be sacked for it but it is fair comment that his aide will need to leave her post
Leaver her post, eh? You reckon the affair is over then?
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The affair was with his closest aid hired in the pandemic and clearly was a distraction to dealing with covid
The optics are dreadful
So what. These things happen especially in these sorts of contexts. You really have no idea whether it affected his performance or not. Either way having an affair is in itself not grounds for resignation.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Roger, as an ad-man surely you know that the best advertising in the world can’t save a duff product?
Labour’s problems run a lot deeper than branding.
The problem with the Remania strategy is that electorally the vote is quite concentrated and hence highly inefficient in terms of FPTP seats. Huge majorities in London and University cities won’t make up for swathes of defeats across the rest of the country.
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
Which suggests that Muslims are having a lot more babies, right?
Ah... Not really. If you look at the number of under 16 Muslims compared to the number in the 20 to 40 range, to get a good estimate of the total fertility rate, you get 1.8, which is more than the 1.6 for Christians, but is hardly outbreeding the locals by a meaningful amount.
Strange, then, that whenever I did secondary school visits in East London there was a noticeable difference in the demographic balance between the local school kids and the adults in the surrounding ward.
And please quit calling the rest of us Christians! It’s an insult.
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
You’re clearly not up to speed with contemporary expectations regarding workplace relationships, for one thing. And that’s before you get to the issues of dishonesty, integrity, and probity in terms of the employment and use of public money, not to mention Covid safe behaviours.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. The true number of Remainers in the UK is perhaps 30%, and of these, maybe only a third really, really, really care. So the LDs (if they are solely the party of Remain) are fishing in a pool of maybe 10% of the population.
But the death of Remain is probably good news for the LDs. It means they can revert to their traditional role of "I hate [x], and I'd never vote for [y], and the LDs seem like nice fellows so I'll lend them my vote."
I largely agree but the lib dems will always be perceived as pro EU
However, it looks as if labour are caught between the red wall and the south and are hemorrhaging votes to both the conservatives and lib dems
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
You’re clearly not up to speed with contemporary expectations regarding workplace relationships, for one thing. And that’s before you get to the issues of dishonesty, integrity, and probity in terms of the employment and use of public money, not to mention Covid safe behaviours.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
Serial adulterer Johnson is unlikely to sack first time offender Hancock for adultery. Come the reshuffle he’ll be elsewhere. His aide however should be gone today, if she has any self respect and wants to save her marriage. Fair? No. But life’s like that…
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
Why should he be sacked for this? I can't see what it has to do with his job in government.
He won't be sacked for it but it is fair comment that his aide will need to leave her post
Leaver her post, eh? You reckon the affair is over then?
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.
It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.
The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
It is interesting labour lost vote share in all last nights locals and it seems labour are losing across the UK
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Wrong on the last point. If having an affair were grounds for resignation the political class across the board would be very limited indeed. Job competence has to be the key issue in these matters.
The affair was with his closest aid hired in the pandemic and clearly was a distraction to dealing with covid
The optics are dreadful
So what. These things happen especially in these sorts of contexts. You really have no idea whether it affected his performance or not. Either way having an affair is in itself not grounds for resignation.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.
It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.
The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
The last person who called me out of touch with the UK was some bloke called Sean or Byronic or something, when I forecast a Conservative majority of 80.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. vote."
I'm afraid you're really out of touch Robert, which tends to happen when you don't live in a country. Not a criticism as I've been in the same situation myself many times.
It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.
The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Citation required.
There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.
Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
On these numbers, there are 1,565,485 Muslims in England out of a population 56 million - which works out as under 3%.
That's more than half the ONS from the previous year.
That'll be because I can't add up.
I divided the number of Muslim women by the total English population.
OK.
Trying again.
There are 3.36m Muslims in Great Britain in 2019 on the ONS data, out of a population of 63.8m, giving a total percentage of 5.2%. UK numbers will be slightly lower, of course, because there are fewer Muslims in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it'll change the numbers more than a fraction.
You can do the maths yourself from the spreadsheet.
So, no, I won't sell at 4.9%.
Of course, if the UK population is really 69 million, then the proportion of Muslims in the UK comes out at 4.9% exactly
From that ONS 1/3 of Muslims are under 16, compared to about 1/6 Christians. So it’s not hard to imagine Islam becoming the biggest religion in the UK in maybe 50 years time
Which suggests that Muslims are having a lot more babies, right?
Ah... Not really. If you look at the number of under 16 Muslims compared to the number in the 20 to 40 range, to get a good estimate of the total fertility rate, you get 1.8, which is more than the 1.6 for Christians, but is hardly outbreeding the locals by a meaningful amount.
Strange, then, that whenever I did secondary school visits in East London there was a noticeable difference in the demographic balance between the local school kids and the adults in the surrounding ward.
And please quit calling the rest of us Christians! It’s an insult.
I'm using Christians, because I'm comparing the Christian number, not the atheist/agnostic one.
On this alleged affair, surely the question is whether it began before or after she was appointed?
If it was after, he can probably survive the scandal. He shouldn’t, but Johnson got away with Petronella Wyatt, Jennifer Arcuri, Carrie Symonds, and John Prescott got away with Tracey Temple...Yes, in a normal workplace it would be a disciplinary, as they were conducting their affair on office time and premises, but cabinet ministers are not normal workers.
If before, and undeclared, that would be a much more serious matter and should lead to his instant dismissal. Again, it won’t though.
Starmer must be kicking himself. If he'd spent less time trying to put the past behind him by purging himself of everything Corbyn and instead turned his fire on Johnson he'd be soaring at the moment.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
Why bother with labour when the lib dems are the remain party
And with all due respect "Remain" is dead. It died on the alter of Covid and vaccine procurement. The true number of Remainers in the UK is perhaps 30%, and of these, maybe only a third really, really, really care. So the LDs (if they are solely the party of Remain) are fishing in a pool of maybe 10% of the population.
But the death of Remain is probably good news for the LDs. It means they can revert to their traditional role of "I hate [x], and I'd never vote for [y], and the LDs seem like nice fellows so I'll lend them my vote."
Didn't all the polling this week confirm that very little has changed, and that the nation remains pretty evenly split? Also that a plurality think the government has done a bad job of negotiating Brexit.
I am surprised that the vaccine spat etc made so little difference, and don't expect any major English party to run on Rejoin in 2024, but no sign that I see of Remainers fading away.
Competence is clearly and demonstrably not a requirement for being in the Cabinet, neither is honesty. So, the only reason for Johnson to get rid of Hancock is if he does not want him around anymore. The problem with that, though, is that Hancock has been sitting around the cabinet table for the 18 months and knows a few things that maybe the PM would not like shared.
No he doesn't. Your boy Johnson has shifted the dial on the required standards of financial and sexual probity in public life. You voted for and enabled it so it's a bit much to be going Baxter Basics on it now.
It's the like the 90s all over again with tory sleaze. I might put my Dinosaur Jr t-shirt on and go for a rip in my 993 vert.
I don't think it's like the 90s at all. Life - in particular moral attitudes - has moved on so much since then.
The prurient coverage of affairs and toe sucking and such like used to bring politicians down. Nowadays I doubt it'd make any difference to anything. The casual acceptance/disregard of Boris Johnson's past affairs by the electorate isn't cause, it's effect.
Hancock is as safe in his job this morning as he was last night. I don't think it would've made any difference if he'd been caught shagging a bloke TBH. Definitely not 1993 anymore.
On this alleged affair, surely the question is whether it began before or after she was appointed?
If it was after, he can probably survive the scandal. He shouldn’t, but Johnson got away with Petronella Wyatt, Jennifer Arcuri, Carrie Symonds, and John Prescott got away with Tracey Temple...Yes, in a normal workplace it would be a disciplinary, as they were conducting their affair on office time and premises, but cabinet ministers are not normal workers.
If before, and undeclared, that would be a much more serious matter and should lead to his instant dismissal. Again, it won’t though.
I think that being sacked for having an affair is vanishingly impossible under a Johnson administration. Perhaps for NOT having an affair.
What might do Hancock in would be if her dual role as aide and lobbyist linked to sweetheart contracts for mates. Though even that sort of corruption doesn't seem to matter much, so low have standards fallen in government. We expect Ministers to be shaggers with their hands in the till.
Comments
1 France 5.5 18.2%
2 England 7.6 13.2%
3 Italy 8.2 12.2%
4= Germany 8.4 11.9%
4= Spain 8.4 11.9%
6 Netherlands 10.5 9.5%
7 Belgium 11.5 8.7%
8 Portugal 16 6.2%
9 Denmark 22 4.5%
10 Sweden 70 1.4%
11 Croatia 80 1.2%
120 bar.
This wouldn't be a happy development for the Labour Party, as it would be another splintering of it's voter coalition.
It's probably an inevitable splintering - I can't imagine that a Labour party which spends most of its time worrying about misgendering people on twitter has a lot in common with many Muslim votes.
What's less inevitable is where that vote goes instead - one can imagine several other scenarios than where an explicitly Muslim party appears.
However. You are right. Holland should be the shortest in the bottom half. By some way, given that only one of England Germany will make the last 8.
Face masks acted as an equalizer, making pretty faces appear less beautiful and unattractive faces more attractive. https://researchmap.jp/jik/published_papers/32754000/attachment_file.pdf "
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1406174268296024065
Now, you think pushing 7%. So shall we say 6.8%, and me saying 5.2%. That makes the midpoint 6.0%.
As I got it wrong to start with, I'll tilt it slightly your way, but I'm not going to pitch my actual estimate. So, shall we say 5.8%?
Ronaldo may win it anyway with the total he has.. Or Portugal may prove me wrong and go deep.
But that is shocking value, despite his current lead.
"the Government’s own impact assessment suggests that over 25 years the restrictions will cost broadcasters £1.5 billion, online platforms £3.5 billion, advertising agencies £550 million, and retailers and manufacturers of HFSS products will see their profits reduced by £659 million."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/24/junk-food-ban-wont-stop-big-brands-advertising-due-loophole/
All best wishes to him.
https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1132514082408546305
https://www.salon.com/2021/06/24/oan-host-suggests-mass-execution-of-those-who-oppose-trumps-voter-fraud-claims/
Health Secretary Matt Hancock 'is having affair' with his closest aide, 43, after pair were caught on camera having a passionate clinch outside his Whitehall office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9723683/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-having-affair-closest-aide-according-reports.html
Bonking around with a women he hired in the middle of a pandemic...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
2h
Chichester East (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 43.0% (+24.7)
CON: 31.0% (+6.5)
LAB: 26.1% (-3.7)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
No Grn (-18.0) and UKIP (-9.4) as prev.
[Corrected]
The circumstances are very different. This is fertile tory territory in terms of their northern love bombing and the vile Lord Farquaard aka George Galloway throws a serious curve ball at the Labour vote.
He also, however, provides them with a get out of jail card. 'We lost because of Galloway' neatly does the opposite of what the imp wished: it secures Starmer more time, not less.
The likely tory win is also helpful for the LibDems and all others attempting to win the south. The more the tories win ooooop north, the less their chances down south.
So all-in-all this result won't be as bad for Labour and the LibDems as it may seem to the excitables on here.
A big shift (or shift back) to the Libs in the south is just what they need.
He should be judged on the job not the blowjob.
Meanwhile George tries his hand as a pussy....
https://www.joe.co.uk/entertainment/remembering-the-time-george-galloway-pretended-to-be-a-cat-on-national-tv-238264
And as for Hancock he has to resign
Ah... Not really. If you look at the number of under 16 Muslims compared to the number in the 20 to 40 range, to get a good estimate of the total fertility rate, you get 1.8, which is more than the 1.6 for Christians, but is hardly outbreeding the locals by a meaningful amount.
....as he wanders into Johnson's office fanning himself with a photo of Jennifer Acuri.
The optics are dreadful
On topic, it's just another example of the Daily Malicious stirring. I really couldn't give a toss who Matt Hancock is bonking. It may be sad for his wife (I don't know) but we don't elect politicians to be bishops. Whether it's someone he hired before, during, or after a health scare is an utter irrelevance.
He can shag whomever he likes so long as he does the job.
"Analysis
The accidental by-election: How Labour triggered another divisive vote for the people of Batley and Spen
This vote may prompt drama in Westminster but focus should be paid to the repercussions for the people in the constituency itself.
Sam Coates
Deputy political editor"
https://news.sky.com/story/the-accidental-by-election-how-labour-triggered-another-divisive-vote-for-the-people-of-batley-and-spen-12340984
And I have no idea what you are talking about re the quote that the optics are dreadful
As for the population, if it were true that extra-marital sex led to public demands for the perpetrators' heads we wouldn't have witnessed Boris Johnson winning a landslide 18-months ago. People seem to enjoy reading salacious tittle-tattle but in terms of voting intention it has no relevance. Mary Whitehouse is dead.
Maybe he still can but an image for what Labour look like now is difficult to make out. A rebrand is desperately needed. Whether it can happen under Starmer I don't know.
It would be easier with a change but who is there? Perhaps If David Milliband could be persuaded it would give them a look....Angela Raynor is just swapping deckchairs. There are 52% Remainers wandering around like zombies looking for a home.That's got to be the starting point.
It's the like the 90s all over again with tory sleaze. I might put my Dinosaur Jr t-shirt on and go for a rip in my 993 vert.
I think you're probably right.
The south may be the most fertile territory, which means that he could do what Johnson has done in reverse. Johnson left London for the north and that means that the capital and surrounds are vulnerable to attack, albeit in alliance with the LibDems.
He could steal the traditional tory mantle. Do a Blair-Mandleson and really go all guns blazing in a vicious counter attack along the lines of:
WHY SHOULD THE SOUTH PAY FOR NORTHERN VANITY PROJECTS?
If he really goes at that with a low taxation low spending anti-housebuilding alternative for southern Britain he will get a huge amount of support.
The trouble is, I think he's a bit too principled and not enough political. The LibDems know how to play dirty but I don't think Starmer does.
F1: pit stops to slow down following complaints from some teams:
https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/1408112150715981826
I'm guessing some teams might be a certain set of formerly totally dominant sore losers.
Separately hope DavidL got the help he needed last night.
But the death of Remain is probably good news for the LDs. It means they can revert to their traditional role of "I hate [x], and I'd never vote for [y], and the LDs seem like nice fellows so I'll lend them my vote."
Labour’s problems run a lot deeper than branding.
The problem with the Remania strategy is that electorally the vote is quite concentrated and hence highly inefficient in terms of FPTP seats. Huge majorities in London and University cities won’t make up for swathes of defeats across the rest of the country.
And please quit calling the rest of us Christians! It’s an insult.
However, it looks as if labour are caught between the red wall and the south and are hemorrhaging votes to both the conservatives and lib dems
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9723683/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-having-affair-closest-aide-according-reports.html
And Independent:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/matt-hancock-gina-coladangelo-affair-b1872505.html
Been saying for weeks that they should be offering this, especially in University towns. At least they're offering it now.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-all-over-18s-in-england-urged-to-grab-a-jab-at-hundreds-of-walk-in-vaccination-sites-this-weekend-12341194
Grab a jab everyone
Salacious tittle-tattle. Bet Sarah Vine is involved.
It's true that 3 months ago there was considerable anti-EU feeling because of the vaccination procurement but that has changed now. We have all seen the EU catching up and, in some ways, overtaking the UK especially on their freedoms.
The current Remain polling is around 55% so that's nonsense to say that it has dropped to 30% or gone away. It's very much alive right now. A real sense that among the many problems hitting Boris Johnson, problems with Brexit are among them. The honeymoon is well and truly over.
Complete with cctv still photos
There is a difference between “should we have Remained” with support ~50% and “should we rejoin” where the support is in the 30% range. The “Rejoin” camp are a minority and no evidence that’s changing.
Unless you have a Tardis the 50% number is irrelevant.
Any news of DavidL this morning?
If it was after, he can probably survive the scandal. He shouldn’t, but Johnson got away with Petronella Wyatt, Jennifer Arcuri, Carrie Symonds, and John Prescott got away with Tracey Temple...Yes, in a normal workplace it would be a disciplinary, as they were conducting their affair on office time and premises, but cabinet ministers are not normal workers.
If before, and undeclared, that would be a much more serious matter and should lead to his instant dismissal. Again, it won’t though.
I am surprised that the vaccine spat etc made so little difference, and don't expect any major English party to run on Rejoin in 2024, but no sign that I see of Remainers fading away.
The prurient coverage of affairs and toe sucking and such like used to bring politicians down. Nowadays I doubt it'd make any difference to anything. The casual acceptance/disregard of Boris Johnson's past affairs by the electorate isn't cause, it's effect.
Hancock is as safe in his job this morning as he was last night. I don't think it would've made any difference if he'd been caught shagging a bloke TBH. Definitely not 1993 anymore.
What might do Hancock in would be if her dual role as aide and lobbyist linked to sweetheart contracts for mates. Though even that sort of corruption doesn't seem to matter much, so low have standards fallen in government. We expect Ministers to be shaggers with their hands in the till.