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The new word that has entered the political vocabulary – UNCOALITIONABLE – politicalbetting.com
The new word that has entered the political vocabulary – UNCOALITIONABLE – politicalbetting.com
What has been quite remarkable is how in the space of a week the whole way we are looking at the next general election has been transformed. Last Tuesday morning nobody really doubted that the Tories would retain Evesham with a clear majority and few were ready to voice doubts about BoJo’s ability to lead his party to another majority at the next election.
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Clearly the LDs won’t prop up a Tory government
I wouldn't be so sure about that...
Time to emigrate?
The interesting thing is centre right and centre left strategy. Only two outcomes are possible - Tory or some sort of alliance government. An alliance which requires the SNP has its problems for Labour and opportunities for the Tories to exploit.
Do you think Ed Davey would actually rule out a deal with the Tories? Might not go down well with some voters in places like Guildford.
Or would you prefer this sector of society was allowed to keep falling behind as long as your comfy worldview wasn’t challenged ?
Cromwell's Rule.
"Playing the race card" means appealing to people to vote because of feelings they have that are based on their "racial" identity (here, whiteness) and on what they believe is a common experience among those who share that "racial" identity. That's how I use the term anyway. How do you use it?
The region of clarity may be Scotland
There are only two options:
1. A Con majority
2. Lab/Lib and hangers on.
A vote for the SNP is ironically a vote for the Tories given this duality (Lab will not coalesce or even deal with SNP).
I put the current odds at 90:10 but before C&A they were 95:5.
(BTW before anyone accuses me of being an out of touch elitist, I went to a comprehensive school that was almost entirely white so the so-called white working class is not some kind of unknown exotic species to me).
Be a hoot though....
The people playing the race card in Batley and Spen are the George Galloway supporters, with their homophobic and anti-Semitic attacks on the Labour candidate and party leader.
The Tories are talking about levelling up the area, by investing in infrastructure and encouraging private job creation.
Me, well I emigrated already
What was the worse decision - the LibDems betrayal of students or the DUP's betrayal of May ?
Whether this is doable is probably another matter.
Labour (nor the Tories) will agree with this.
If Lab (perhaps with the Libs) get more seats then they form a minority govt and challenge the SNP to bring them down.
A vote in Scotland for the SNP is a vote for the Tories.
It just means the price will be higher
I would say the DUP outshines for sheer stupidity though.
- LibDems doing really well in places they did really well in 2019
- Tories doing really well in places they did really well in 2019
- Labour screwed
Actually, I might quite like that option too!
The Lib Dems betrayed their own voters they'd spent years courting and lost 86% of their seats at the next election.
The DUP "betrayed" someone from another party they made an agreement with after the election and lost 20% of their seats at the next election.
Is that helpful?
Most likely, in the event of a Hung Parliament, either Labour gives them what they want (and gambles everything on being able to win Indyref2) or it is hamstrung and has to go back to the country under disadvantageous circumstances.
Clegg went about the Coalition all wrong. He should have asked to be Education Secretary rather than Deputy PM and demanded complete autonomy and an upfront budgetary agreement for the department. And picked one other. Work and Pensions probably.
Davey seems a smart lad. Surely he’ll learn this lesson, rather than prop up an unpopular minority Labour administration, possibly with the Nationalists!
I suppose an upside of not having kids is not having to undo bullshit like that.
Con 310
Lab 250
SNP 50
LD 18
PC 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1
DUP 9
Sinn Fein 9
Who forms the government? With what supply agreements if any?
This is just an appalling abuse of data. Taking PHE evidence that shows the extraordinary success of vaccines, and spreading fear and alarm by misinterpreting those same numbers. Purely on a stats basis, you should probably ignore everything from this source.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1407244661513666561?s=20
https://www.scotsman.com/health/covid-scotland-no-evidence-of-need-for-travel-restrictions-to-dundee-says-expert-3281560
Or Manchester too, presumably?
It seems to me FWIW that the Tories remain odds on for a majority as long as they can do exactly this: seem to be on the side of the middling sort - their current spectrum of support from South Holland to Hartlepool AND ensure that the LDs are seen as centre left not centre right so that the centre right vote is not split, while of course continuing to marginalise the loony right and binding Labour to the loony left.
The post-furlough period is going to be an interesting challenge.
Lab+SNP+LD+PC+Green = 321 so a working majority of 2, with the SNP demanding an independence referendum and abstaining on England only bills (so the Tories would have an England only majority).
Con + LD = 328 so a working majority of 16
The LDs far more than the SNP are more likely to reach an agreement to support a Tory government in the right circumstances.
iain dale
The LibDems will have had a great leap forward when they are taken seriously in the Midlands. Same for Labour when they start being competitive again in places like Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire.
We know that minority kids historically got a raw deal from the school system because of racism. Black kids were routinely put in 'special schools' with no evidential basis in the 60s and 70s. I'm sure many people can point to examples of racial bias from their school days in the 80s and 90s. My wife certainly can.
Working class kids have also historically got a raw deal, but on the basis of their class not because they were white. Working class black kids get a raw deal too, and these days it's probably more due to class than race, and probably more to do with attitudes to learning and issues outside the school than due to the school system itself, as it is for white working class kids.
I think that though the LDs are a centre left party now, they won't be willing to say so by doing deals with Labour. And they have a preference for opposition since the debacle of 2015.
On the other hand the Tories just need LD and DUP to abstain on confidence matters, they don't need an actual majority or coalition.
Edit. And the same would apply to the DUP. And they don't bear grudges, or have long memories. Oh no!
Clegg presided over a biblical disaster. Under his leadership the Lib Dems went from a party of 57 MPs to 8. It takes time to recover from that -- time for the public to forget the lies and betrayal, time to build up the councillors to make an assault on Parliamentary seats. And the students are never going to forget.
There will be 3 big players after the next election: the Tories, Labour and the SNP. And if the Tories don't get a majority, I can't see anything very stable.
I agree that Lab + LibDem could be reasonably stable, but the LibDems will most likely have < 15 seats.
Elderly gentlemen of a centre left persuasion have always wanted to get Labour and the LibDems in bed together, but there is a reason why sex never happens.
It is a very narrow bed.
And it is good thing, too.
It would be injury-inducing for the LibDems to be trying out an adventurous new position or playing with Labour's high-tech sex toys. At their age.
On the previous thread, Mike succinctly set out the case that it is going to disappoint millions if we can't travel even though we've been vaccinated. I would add that it will disappoint even more that we are still having to go through the ludicrous rigmarole of having to self-isolate if we have been in contact with someone who has tested positive even if we have been jabbed. Millions and millions of 10 day blocks of life being lost. Millions of plans unfulfilled. Millions and millions of pounds of economic activity not happening.
And masks, too. Why are the jabbed still having to wear masks?
The Euros are shining a light on the gulf between the UK, where we have been successful at vaccinating, and Europe, where they have not. And yet we are the ones still masked, restricted, locked away. It doesn't feel, any more, like we're winning.
The number of posters on here who would previously be taking the position of a Conservative government who are angrily attacking them is notable.
And yet, the Tories continue to dominate in the polls. Possibly because the main opposition parties do nothing but enthusiastically echo the government line on all this.
(And yes, there are anti-lockdown parties, but who beyond a highly interested fringe like us has even heard of Reform?)
It's just classic Tory divide and rule.
LDs being able to abstain from choosing the government, but then instead voting issue by issue, which means in that scenario of numbers a Tory government with LDs on the opposition benches still could be in their best interests.
The line that "schools are failing' this demographic is effectively government absolving itself from responsibility for addressing the root causes of underperformance.
Primary schools with class sizes around 28, and with the levels of funding they have, are not going to be able to give children what their parents don't or can't. Really bright kids will probably do OK whatever their background, but the life chances of many are significantly determined in the pre-school years.
29. Schools should consider whether the promotion of politically controversial
terminology, including White Privilege, is consistent with their duties under the
Equality Act 2010. The Department should take steps to ensure that young people are
not inadvertently being inducted into political movements when what is required is
balanced, age-appropriate discussion and a curriculum that equips young people to
thrive in diverse and multi-cultural communities throughout their lives and work. The
Department should issue clear guidance for schools and other Department-affiliated
organisations receiving grants from the Department on how to deliver teaching on these
complex issues in a balanced, impartial and age-appropriate way
https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6364/documents/69838/default/
If Labour does hold it, I think it will change the media narrative somewhat.
How many MPs they can actually deliver at the next GE is the intriguing bit, given the state they are in.
We demand better. We want a more egalitarian approach that will deliver a similar (and high) quality education to everyone regardless of parental bank balance. Increase participation in state schools, proper funding, a real prioritizing of disadvantaged areas.
The biggest beneficiary of such an approach? Yep - white working class children.
But oh no, too difficult. Too disruptive of the status quo that so many are secretly comfortable with. So let's produce this report instead. Let's avoid the hard choices about class and money and push some culture war buttons. Let's waffle on about the term "white privilege". Has sweet FA to do with the problem but let's pretend that it does. Let's stoke some grievance!
I see you, Tories, and Middle England. I see you.
I think you are perhaps overinterpreting the tealeaves here, in terms of the breadth of the impact of the earthquake.
What percentage of "LD runner up to Tories in the South" seats is the highest the LDs have ever won?
I guess that would be 1997?
I am still in the mood to have one of my increasingly rare political bets on Labour for this. I just think Labours GOTV will be stronger than the Cons.
The SNP are likely to be the same.
Consequently I could see a Conservative minority government surviving for a period (though I doubt the Tories will lose seats at the next general election).
"Burnham’s star is rising because he is doing what we expect elected representatives to do – he stands up and fights for his people in a language and determination that everyone can understand."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2021/06/22/labour-party-cannot-remake-can-ever-remake-country/
It does feel vaguely surprising to hear a politician who appears to be on my side. I've historically been emotionally on the right because - being white, male, straight, able-bodied, northern - for as long as I can remember it's felt like the left have been actively furious with me. The right haven't exactly been on my side, but they haven't been on anyone's side - Boris is famously on Boris Johnson's side - but this feels refreshingly supportive compared to what Labour have offered.
And then at several points over the past year, Burnham says something which suggests he not only doesn't want me to fail, but is possibly even on my side. Nice one Burnham.
My wife is going to be so jealous.
Day 3. On Sunday we reported how Keir Starmer, his family and Labour's candidate in Batley & Spen were being subjected to anti-Semitic and homophobic abuse. As yet there has been no condemnation of the abuse from the Labour Party.
Back to the 50's!!!!!!
I still think there'll be a long spoon for them when dealing with the Tories though.
If I was going to abuse Keir Starmer I wouldn't be calling him gay or Jewish. Because - quite aside from whether or not this should be construed as offensive - he isn't. Or doesn't appear to be.
I can assure you that this guidance is pretty well irrelevant to current or future student outcomes.
On the former, the Tories would hold another Election imo.