Perhaps the SNP loons going to have an alternative day when children can be indoctrinated in the nationalist values of intolerance, unkindness, hatred and disrespect.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
WRONG
Edit: I see others have got there before me.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
You forgot the sniff into the mic.
Eh?
That's what Trump used to do before pronouncing someone was WROONGGG.
Besides the content, check the language on this Dutch tweet. There is so much English in it, she is basically speaking English
I’ve seen the same in Sweden and Denmark. I wonder if these smaller European languages will survive for much longer. The urge to talk - certainly online - in plain English, and finally abandon Dutch, must be intense. You instantly get a vastly bigger audience, and you’re already halfway there
‘Peter Daszak, lid vh WHO-team dat in China herkomst coronavirus onderzocht, heeft nu fuller disclosure gegeven over financiering door non-profit waarvan hij president is en dat eerder onderzoek van het Wuhanlab financieerde, recent onthuld door Vanity Fair.’
Swedish will extinct within a hundred years. The propensity to gleefully abandon perfectly good Swedish words and phrases for English (sometimes pseudo-English) ones is astonishing. Anyone who objects is ridiculed as a fuddy duddy who’s not down with the kids. It is part of the infamous “opinion corridor”.
I hope not. I think it's important that these languages survive. Using English ought to be discouraged in these countries. In fact I think Danish universities recently decided to stop teaching in English.
I was in Copenhagen in December 2019 and it might as well have been an English-speaking city.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
As for majority opinion... Tyranny of the majority.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
WRONG
Edit: I see others have got there before me.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
“The very recent emergence of the [delta] variant and the relatively low case numbers meant that it was not possible to estimate vaccine efficacy against severe disease.”
There’s a lot that we just don’t yet know.
I make most of my money betting, by laying overconfidence. One of my skills is sniffing it out.
I see we are back – yet again – to the PB Zerocovidians trashing the vaccine.
Very sad to see.
It's their only way to hold onto restrictions, become anti-vaxxers.
Its the horseshoe effect in politics again.
Far left and far right are pretty indistinguishable from each other in a lot of ways.
The two extremist sides of being extremely pro- and anti- lockdowns are becoming indistinguishable from each other by parroting each others antivaxx lines too.
Yes, it is a very sinister trend. And the analogy is spot on – someone said this to me IRL the other day. Very apt.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Surely you're joking? That refers to a study based on data up to 19 February. BEFORE THE DELTA VARIANT.
I realised when I posted that it was pointless, but it's fair to say I didn't realise quite how pointless!
AGAIN, FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT OR WILL NOT READ
VE against hospitalisation with Delta was similar to that seen with Alpha: 94% (46-99) after 1 dose and 96% (86-99) after 2 doses of BNT162b2; 71% (51-83) after 1 dose and 92% (75-97) after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 (Table) These findings indicate very high levels of protection against hospitalisation with the Delta variant with 1 or 2 doses of either vaccine.
Perhaps the SNP loons going to have an alternative day when children can be indoctrinated in the nationalist values of intolerance, unkindness, hatred and disrespect.
That's the whole of the rest of the school year I imagine.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
As for majority opinion... Tyranny of the majority.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
WRONG
Edit: I see others have got there before me.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
“The very recent emergence of the [delta] variant and the relatively low case numbers meant that it was not possible to estimate vaccine efficacy against severe disease.”
There’s a lot that we just don’t yet know.
I make most of my money betting, by laying overconfidence. One of my skills is sniffing it out.
92% efficacy against hospitalisation after two doses, higher than it was against Alpha (original) COVID.
Edit - narrower CI as well.
What does HR vs Hospitalisation mean? And OR vs symptomatic disease?
Odds ratio (how likely they are to get symptomatic COVID) and an adjustment for hazards ratio of age/underlying conditions etc... because comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated is extremely dishonest given the age profile of unvaccinated people vs double jabbed people.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Surely you're joking? That refers to a study based on data up to 19 February. BEFORE THE DELTA VARIANT.
I realised when I posted that it was pointless, but it's fair to say I didn't realise quite how pointless!
AGAIN, FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT OR WILL NOT READ
VE against hospitalisation with Delta was similar to that seen with Alpha: 94% (46-99) after 1 dose and 96% (86-99) after 2 doses of BNT162b2; 71% (51-83) after 1 dose and 92% (75-97) after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 (Table) These findings indicate very high levels of protection against hospitalisation with the Delta variant with 1 or 2 doses of either vaccine.
Yeah, that does suggest that vaccines are pretty equal in their effectiveness.
Besides the content, check the language on this Dutch tweet. There is so much English in it, she is basically speaking English
I’ve seen the same in Sweden and Denmark. I wonder if these smaller European languages will survive for much longer. The urge to talk - certainly online - in plain English, and finally abandon Dutch, must be intense. You instantly get a vastly bigger audience, and you’re already halfway there
‘Peter Daszak, lid vh WHO-team dat in China herkomst coronavirus onderzocht, heeft nu fuller disclosure gegeven over financiering door non-profit waarvan hij president is en dat eerder onderzoek van het Wuhanlab financieerde, recent onthuld door Vanity Fair.’
Swedish will extinct within a hundred years. The propensity to gleefully abandon perfectly good Swedish words and phrases for English (sometimes pseudo-English) ones is astonishing. Anyone who objects is ridiculed as a fuddy duddy who’s not down with the kids. It is part of the infamous “opinion corridor”.
I hope not. I think it's important that these languages survive. Using English ought to be discouraged in these countries. In fact I think Danish universities recently decided to stop teaching in English.
I was in Copenhagen in December 2019 and it might as well have been an English-speaking city.
Interesting how Welsh is making a bit of a comeback, after being practically banned 120 years ago.
I see we are back – yet again – to the PB Zerocovidians trashing the vaccine.
Very sad to see.
It's their only way to hold onto restrictions, become anti-vaxxers.
Its the horseshoe effect in politics again.
Far left and far right are pretty indistinguishable from each other in a lot of ways.
The two extremist sides of being extremely pro- and anti- lockdowns are becoming indistinguishable from each other by parroting each others antivaxx lines too.
Yes, it is a very sinister trend. And the analogy is spot on – someone said this to me IRL the other day. Very apt.
The ideological objection to vaccination among both extremes is strange.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
As for majority opinion... Tyranny of the majority.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
WRONG
Edit: I see others have got there before me.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
“The very recent emergence of the [delta] variant and the relatively low case numbers meant that it was not possible to estimate vaccine efficacy against severe disease.”
There’s a lot that we just don’t yet know.
I make most of my money betting, by laying overconfidence. One of my skills is sniffing it out.
92% efficacy against hospitalisation after two doses, higher than it was against Alpha (original) COVID.
Edit - narrower CI as well.
It is higher because the exposure to Delta was later in the vaccination cycle?
There was speculation that AZ worked as well as Pfizer, but it took a lot longer to get there (more than the 2 weeks cited).
Yeah it does seem that way, both of the adenovirus vector vaccines take a bit longer to reach maximum efficacy but it does seem as though they provide long term immunity.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
The PHE report from 14th June concluded that the vaccines were highly effective against both the Alpha and Delta variants.
All the vaccines we are using are both safe and highly effective by any normal definition. Pfizer might give you a bit more protection sooner, but AZ catches up with it and might give you longer term protection. We are incredibly fortunate to have any of these vaccines as we would be in real peril right now without them. The anti-vaxxers, and the people claiming the vaccines aren't much cop, are simply cranks.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
Two weeks after my second AZ dose my risk of hospitalization due to Covid will be reduced by > 90%.
Replicated across the country that makes Covid less dangerous than the flu.
Consequently, national emergency over, life back to normal, standard public health advice on reducing the spread of infectious diseases continues.
And here we have it. Someone who apparently can't understand the distinction between infection and hospitalisation, and thinks the hospitalisation rate for flu is 10% (!), pontificating about the pandemic being over. I really thought that kind of thing went out a year ago.
You might like to reflect that the PHE report "demonstrating" 90%+ protection against hospitalisation - the report that Steve Baker complained hadn't been disclosed to Boris Johnson - was for the most part based on results that weren't even statistically significant. But do you understand what "statistically significant" means?
Besides the content, check the language on this Dutch tweet. There is so much English in it, she is basically speaking English
I’ve seen the same in Sweden and Denmark. I wonder if these smaller European languages will survive for much longer. The urge to talk - certainly online - in plain English, and finally abandon Dutch, must be intense. You instantly get a vastly bigger audience, and you’re already halfway there
‘Peter Daszak, lid vh WHO-team dat in China herkomst coronavirus onderzocht, heeft nu fuller disclosure gegeven over financiering door non-profit waarvan hij president is en dat eerder onderzoek van het Wuhanlab financieerde, recent onthuld door Vanity Fair.’
Swedish will extinct within a hundred years. The propensity to gleefully abandon perfectly good Swedish words and phrases for English (sometimes pseudo-English) ones is astonishing. Anyone who objects is ridiculed as a fuddy duddy who’s not down with the kids. It is part of the infamous “opinion corridor”.
Strong disagree. I work for a Swedish company (whose employees trend young) and have visited Stockholm several times now. Swedish remains the language Swedish people talk to each other in in non-business contexts at work and while socializing. So what if it acquires English loan words? (Insert obligatory ref to James Nicoll's screed on the "purity" of English itself.) That's what languages do.
It's the languages like French that have strongly conservative "governing bodies" always on the lookout to strike out any furrin innovations that are more likely to ossify and die in the long run.
Swedish has such a body.
Incidentally, are you a fluent Swedish speaker? You might not realise the startling anglicisation going on.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
Two weeks after my second AZ dose my risk of hospitalization due to Covid will be reduced by > 90%.
Replicated across the country that makes Covid less dangerous than the flu.
Consequently, national emergency over, life back to normal, standard public health advice on reducing the spread of infectious diseases continues.
And here we have it. Someone who apparently can't understand the distinction between infection and hospitalisation, and thinks the hospitalisation rate for flu is 10% (!), pontificating about the pandemic being over. I really thought that kind of thing went out a year ago.
You might like to reflect that the PHE report "demonstrating" 90%+ protection against hospitalisation - the report that Steve Baker complained hadn't been disclosed to Boris Johnson - was for the most part based on results that weren't even statistically significant. But do you understand what "statistically significant" means?
Don't like the data? Shit on the data. Simples.
Also, where are you seeing LostPassword say the risk of hospitalisation from flu is 10%, he said his risk of hospitalisation from COVID has been reduced by 90%. Are you so deluded that you believe that COVID carries a hospitalisation risk of 100%? So much for smartest guy in the room.
I think it was Bruce Schneier who pointed out, that for all the security theatre at airports, the one method not used (in the US - and it isn't used here) was the profiling techniques used by the Israelis. Essentially, spot likely individuals, engaged them in a conversation, and rapidly determine the probability of their mental state using carefully designed questions.
This was rejected. Because it would be racist. By the TSA. Who instead strip search black people lots......
The Israelis don't give a damn about looking politcally correct when it comes to security, and happily target who they want for their interrogators to give a grilling. They learnt the hard way and now probably have the safest airlines and airports as a result.
I don't think we'd want to police the UK like that.
Yes I quite agree. The last thing we’d want to do is use policing tactics that improve public safety.
I thought you were one of these "if you trade a bit of liberty for some extra security you deserve neither liberty nor security" merchants?
Or is that only when it's about wearing masks to Tescos?
I'm not sure that argument is relevant here - I don't think less, or even more security is being advocated - simply better targeted.
On which subject, my father in law - who is a scientist, and travels all over the world - was frequently stopped at airport security until he took the decision to start wearing a jacket and tie. No more issues at airports after that, even if he did continue to look like a ginger Lemmy from Motorhead, only wearing a tie. And similarly, I bet if you're brown-skinned, heavily bearded and wear traditional Asian clothing you will be stopped more often than if your white skinned, dress in the style of a conventional westerner and clean shaven. Even if we don't say we target, I bet we do, a bit.
I'd imagine we do, yes. As for liberty v security, I'd say airports are quite a pure example of it. You must submit yourself to various checks if you wish to fly somewhere. You're giving up some liberty there in exchange for a (hopefully) smaller chance of (eg) being blown up.
Yes, as you say, it's a false dichotomy. We all have a balance of the right level of liberty vs security. Mine is probably a little further towards liberty than yours. But - as in so many things - when we disagree, we disagree on exactly where on the scale we should be, often over very small increments, rather than on whether we should go for 'liberty' or 'security'.
Similarly, when I was growing up, political discussions were furious battles of should public spending be 38% of GDP or 42%? All seemed hugely fundamental at the time.
I might be less freedom loving than some but I'm no wimp, I assure you. You should see me when I'm out and about. I don't always stick to 2m.
I think it was Bruce Schneier who pointed out, that for all the security theatre at airports, the one method not used (in the US - and it isn't used here) was the profiling techniques used by the Israelis. Essentially, spot likely individuals, engaged them in a conversation, and rapidly determine the probability of their mental state using carefully designed questions.
This was rejected. Because it would be racist. By the TSA. Who instead strip search black people lots......
The Israelis don't give a damn about looking politcally correct when it comes to security, and happily target who they want for their interrogators to give a grilling. They learnt the hard way and now probably have the safest airlines and airports as a result.
I don't think we'd want to police the UK like that.
Yes I quite agree. The last thing we’d want to do is use policing tactics that improve public safety.
I thought you were one of these "if you trade a bit of liberty for some extra security you deserve neither liberty nor security" merchants?
Or is that only when it's about wearing masks to Tescos?
I don’t tend to go to Tesco’s.
Grown ups should be able to continually balance security and liberty and not take static positions.
At the height of a pandemic of a fast spreading novel virus with an IFR of about 0.5%, wearing a mask in public was a low impact intervention that probably did some net good. Now we are at 86% of the adult population with immunity (biased towards those with higher IFRs) the balance has almost certainly shifted away and probably did some time ago.
For policing of borders, it really depends on whether you care about cross border serious crime, illegal immigration and international terrorism. Or being nice.
Yep, contrary to the notorious quote, security vs liberty can be a valid trade off. Although people will not all agree on where the right balance is.
As for our border police, I don't see why they have to be nasty to be effective. I've noticed a certain widespread male admiration for hardball tactics from security forces (eg like the Israelis are famous for) but I don't really share it. I wonder if it's vicarious in some cases?
The Israeli approach, in this case, is the reverse of "hard ball".
It goes like this -
1) Profile for certain signs, visually at a distance. 2) Speech to the subject in an apparently casual manner, using a series of questions to get information on his/her mind state. 3) If they seem like a threat, then the person in question gets a serious interrogation (which is very rare).
This is far more effective than strip searching all the black people. Or demanding that everyone takes off their shoes..
Yes when I flew out of Israel, the conversation was very long but jovial and pleasant, with much inquiry into the wedding I had just attended and whether we enjoyed the food and music. The officer even explained to me at the end that he did not suspect us of being terrorists but wanted to be sure we had not been used as mules under duress.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
Two weeks after my second AZ dose my risk of hospitalization due to Covid will be reduced by > 90%.
Replicated across the country that makes Covid less dangerous than the flu.
Consequently, national emergency over, life back to normal, standard public health advice on reducing the spread of infectious diseases continues.
And here we have it. Someone who apparently can't understand the distinction between infection and hospitalisation, and thinks the hospitalisation rate for flu is 10% (!), pontificating about the pandemic being over. I really thought that kind of thing went out a year ago.
You might like to reflect that the PHE report "demonstrating" 90%+ protection against hospitalisation - the report that Steve Baker complained hadn't been disclosed to Boris Johnson - was for the most part based on results that weren't even statistically significant. But do you understand what "statistically significant" means?
Don't like the data? Shit on the data. Simples.
Also I don't think reducing the hospitilisation rate by >90% and saying it is as/less dangerous as the flu is implying a 10% hospitilisation rate for the flu, since the base rate for hospitilisation for covid is not 100%.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
According to this, a PHE study suggested the risk was reduced to 27% after a single dose of AZ. Much lower than you are suggesting.
Surely you're joking? That refers to a study based on data up to 19 February. BEFORE THE DELTA VARIANT.
I realised when I posted that it was pointless, but it's fair to say I didn't realise quite how pointless!
The PHE report from 14th June concluded that the vaccines were highly effective against both the Alpha and Delta variants.
That’s because the (Western) vaccines have all proven to be highly efffective.
Get vaccinated, people, it’s the only way out of this!
Those that have been approved.
Well yes. The West has been prepared to call a dud, a dud. As opposed to Sputnik and Sinovac, which don’t seem to be doing anything useful in large populations.
Besides the content, check the language on this Dutch tweet. There is so much English in it, she is basically speaking English
I’ve seen the same in Sweden and Denmark. I wonder if these smaller European languages will survive for much longer. The urge to talk - certainly online - in plain English, and finally abandon Dutch, must be intense. You instantly get a vastly bigger audience, and you’re already halfway there
‘Peter Daszak, lid vh WHO-team dat in China herkomst coronavirus onderzocht, heeft nu fuller disclosure gegeven over financiering door non-profit waarvan hij president is en dat eerder onderzoek van het Wuhanlab financieerde, recent onthuld door Vanity Fair.’
Swedish will extinct within a hundred years. The propensity to gleefully abandon perfectly good Swedish words and phrases for English (sometimes pseudo-English) ones is astonishing. Anyone who objects is ridiculed as a fuddy duddy who’s not down with the kids. It is part of the infamous “opinion corridor”.
I hope not. I think it's important that these languages survive. Using English ought to be discouraged in these countries. In fact I think Danish universities recently decided to stop teaching in English.
I was in Copenhagen in December 2019 and it might as well have been an English-speaking city.
Interesting how Welsh is making a bit of a comeback, after being practically banned 120 years ago.
The Internet I think has been a lifeline for minority languages. When a language has to be written to have any sort of status, the Internet makes it easy to get published, there's Wikipedias in all sorts of obscure languages etc. However I am not sure the same dynamic works in the case of small mainstream languages crowded out by English.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
Two weeks after my second AZ dose my risk of hospitalization due to Covid will be reduced by > 90%.
Replicated across the country that makes Covid less dangerous than the flu.
Consequently, national emergency over, life back to normal, standard public health advice on reducing the spread of infectious diseases continues.
And here we have it. Someone who apparently can't understand the distinction between infection and hospitalisation, and thinks the hospitalisation rate for flu is 10% (!), pontificating about the pandemic being over. I really thought that kind of thing went out a year ago.
You might like to reflect that the PHE report "demonstrating" 90%+ protection against hospitalisation - the report that Steve Baker complained hadn't been disclosed to Boris Johnson - was for the most part based on results that weren't even statistically significant. But do you understand what "statistically significant" means?
Don't like the data? Shit on the data. Simples.
Also, where are you seeing LostPassword say the risk of hospitalisation from flu is 10%, he said his risk of hospitalisation from COVID has been reduced by 90%. Are you so deluded that you believe that COVID carries a hospitalisation risk of 100%? So much for smartest guy in the room.
But he can tell us what "statistically significant" means, so there is that.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
I think it was Bruce Schneier who pointed out, that for all the security theatre at airports, the one method not used (in the US - and it isn't used here) was the profiling techniques used by the Israelis. Essentially, spot likely individuals, engaged them in a conversation, and rapidly determine the probability of their mental state using carefully designed questions.
This was rejected. Because it would be racist. By the TSA. Who instead strip search black people lots......
The Israelis don't give a damn about looking politcally correct when it comes to security, and happily target who they want for their interrogators to give a grilling. They learnt the hard way and now probably have the safest airlines and airports as a result.
I don't think we'd want to police the UK like that.
Yes I quite agree. The last thing we’d want to do is use policing tactics that improve public safety.
I thought you were one of these "if you trade a bit of liberty for some extra security you deserve neither liberty nor security" merchants?
Or is that only when it's about wearing masks to Tescos?
I don’t tend to go to Tesco’s.
Grown ups should be able to continually balance security and liberty and not take static positions.
At the height of a pandemic of a fast spreading novel virus with an IFR of about 0.5%, wearing a mask in public was a low impact intervention that probably did some net good. Now we are at 86% of the adult population with immunity (biased towards those with higher IFRs) the balance has almost certainly shifted away and probably did some time ago.
For policing of borders, it really depends on whether you care about cross border serious crime, illegal immigration and international terrorism. Or being nice.
Yep, contrary to the notorious quote, security vs liberty can be a valid trade off. Although people will not all agree on where the right balance is.
As for our border police, I don't see why they have to be nasty to be effective. I've noticed a certain widespread male admiration for hardball tactics from security forces (eg like the Israelis are famous for) but I don't really share it. I wonder if it's vicarious in some cases?
The Israeli approach, in this case, is the reverse of "hard ball".
It goes like this -
1) Profile for certain signs, visually at a distance. 2) Speech to the subject in an apparently casual manner, using a series of questions to get information on his/her mind state. 3) If they seem like a threat, then the person in question gets a serious interrogation (which is very rare).
This is far more effective than strip searching all the black people. Or demanding that everyone takes off their shoes..
Yes when I flew out of Israel, the conversation was very long but jovial and pleasant, with much inquiry into the wedding I had just attended and whether we enjoyed the food and music. The officer even explained to me at the end that he did not suspect us of being terrorists but wanted to be sure we had not been used as mules under duress.
One striking thing about the technique is that it treats the subject as a human - not as a suspect being grilled by uniformed official and 5 seconds away from being jumped on by armed security apes....
A common theme in complaints by minorities is that they see officialdom as questioning them in the later style.
England Hospital admissions down week on week for the first time in ages. They made a big jump up 8 days ago but haven't stepped on again since then thankfully. New number today is the lowest admissions for of that 8 day period.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
I expect it's unvaccinated older people.
Without being funny, why aren't they dying then?
It seems that proportionately people going into hospital as it stands at the minute are twice as likely to end up on a MV, but half as likely to die. Those two things don't seem to go hand in hand.
It’s odd, for a betting site, that so many posters are so uncomfortable with uncertainty.
It’s ok to not yet know things.
And to plan on the basis that you don’t yet know things.
That’s what the government is doing, and for that, I applaud them.
Fair point. Though I rail against the government and the cabal of Marxists who advise them, I concede I am some bloke on the internet whose reputation doesn't depend on not being wrong on this.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
New day's data which won't be added to there until tomorrow is 20% lower than the last data point shown - very encouraging.
So, almost all the new cases are among teens and twenties. Among the hospitalisations, there’s very few oldies any more - as much as we can define from those groupings, anyway.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
I expect it's unvaccinated older people.
Without being funny, why aren't they dying then?
It seems that proportionately people going into hospital as it stands at the minute are twice as likely to end up on a MV, but half as likely to die. Those two things don't seem to go hand in hand.
Sadly, they may not have died *yet*. The last part can take anywhere between 10 and 30 days.
England Hospital admissions down week on week for the first time in ages. They made a big jump up 8 days ago but haven't stepped on again since then thankfully. New number today is the lowest admissions for of that 8 day period.
What is interesting is that admissions for 85+ have fallen slightly and 65-84 have levelled off, with 18-64 doing the current rising (as of 19th)
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
As for majority opinion... Tyranny of the majority.
Ping's posts are proof positive that zerocovidianism and antivaxxery are two sides of the same coin.
Eh?
I was excited to get my jab as soon ASAP
I’m just realistic about theoretical claims of vaccine efficacy by interested parties until we have solid real world data. Especially for the jab I’ve had, AstraZeneca.
I’m also not zero COVID. I just think the govt made the right call that 21/6 was not the right point to lift all restrictions.
Hardly controversial. My views are probably majority opinion.
We've had plenty of real world data on AZ. You just choose to ignore it and slyly trash the vaccine in the process.
Public Health England's latest "real-world" assessment is that after one dose AZ reduces the likelihood of symptomatic infection to about 70% of what it would have been otherwise, and after two doses to about 33%.
Given that the trials showed the efficacy against infection in general was less than against symptmoatic infection - in fact only about 50% even against "classic" COVID-19 - it should be obvious how far away from herd immunity we are with only just over half the adult population fully vaccinated, especially now that we have a variant that's probably twice as transmissible as "classic" COVID-19.
But "The Vaccines Will Make It All OK" has become a near-compulsory mantra around here, so I don't expect any statement of the numbers, no matter how clear they are, to do any good.
WRONG
Edit: I see others have got there before me.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
“The very recent emergence of the [delta] variant and the relatively low case numbers meant that it was not possible to estimate vaccine efficacy against severe disease.”
There’s a lot that we just don’t yet know.
I make most of my money betting, by laying overconfidence. One of my skills is sniffing it out.
Besides the content, check the language on this Dutch tweet. There is so much English in it, she is basically speaking English
I’ve seen the same in Sweden and Denmark. I wonder if these smaller European languages will survive for much longer. The urge to talk - certainly online - in plain English, and finally abandon Dutch, must be intense. You instantly get a vastly bigger audience, and you’re already halfway there
‘Peter Daszak, lid vh WHO-team dat in China herkomst coronavirus onderzocht, heeft nu fuller disclosure gegeven over financiering door non-profit waarvan hij president is en dat eerder onderzoek van het Wuhanlab financieerde, recent onthuld door Vanity Fair.’
Swedish will extinct within a hundred years. The propensity to gleefully abandon perfectly good Swedish words and phrases for English (sometimes pseudo-English) ones is astonishing. Anyone who objects is ridiculed as a fuddy duddy who’s not down with the kids. It is part of the infamous “opinion corridor”.
I hope not. I think it's important that these languages survive. Using English ought to be discouraged in these countries. In fact I think Danish universities recently decided to stop teaching in English.
Why? Languages surely exist for people, not the other way around. If they don't want to use their languages any more in certain settings, it's no-one else's business.
And there's the practical objection that if you have rules and enforce them you end up looking bloody ridiculous, as the French often manage to.
I see we are back – yet again – to the PB Zerocovidians trashing the vaccine.
Very sad to see.
It's their only way to hold onto restrictions, become anti-vaxxers.
Its the horseshoe effect in politics again.
Far left and far right are pretty indistinguishable from each other in a lot of ways.
The two extremist sides of being extremely pro- and anti- lockdowns are becoming indistinguishable from each other by parroting each others antivaxx lines too.
Yes, it is a very sinister trend. And the analogy is spot on – someone said this to me IRL the other day. Very apt.
Is it a trend? People on the extremes have always had wacky views. Loonies gonna loon. They are contrarian almost by definition and, where the strong majority view is to get vaccinated, it isn't terribly surprising that the contrarian view on both extreme ends of the spectrum is not to do so.
Now it may be that the extremes are getting stronger than they once were, and there's some evidence of that in the nature of the public discourse. But actually there isn't very much evidence of that from the vaccination position - the uptake has been very high. It's been lower in some groups, but that doesn't necessarily relate to extremist politics - it brings in factors like strong religious faith, poverty and social exclusion, and some fairly deep-seated cultural views on medicine. The evidence of political extremists cutting through to significant numbers on this particular subject is remarkably scant.
Every bubble above the line is a local area with declining case levels - many more than a few days ago and most of the high areas moving in that direction.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
I expect it's unvaccinated older people.
If delta is ~ a cold for the vaccinated and well what we saw in India for the unvaxxed, we simply must fully open. Fuck the antivaxxers.
Apparently Grealish in tonight, but Foden probably dropped.....too risky for old waistcoat to have England's two most creative players on the pitch at the same time.....
So, almost all the new cases are among teens and twenties. Among the hospitalisations, there’s very few oldies any more - as much as we can define from those groupings, anyway.
Vaccines are working!!!
Yes. For the cases, we have seen the progressive effect as the vaccination moves down the cohorts. There is a clear correlation between the level of vaccination (which changed over time) and the age groups where COVID is most prevalent.
It's very annoying that the hospitalisation are segmented the way they are. 18-64 grrrrrrrrr.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
No, you don't need to control infection.
You need to learn to live with disease and treat those who do get sick.
Boris Johnson’s net approval rating: -32 Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating: -3 Government’s Net Competency Rating: -36 Keir Starmer's net approval rating: -16
If you lot want better scores then the solution is hardly beyond the wit of man: offer Scottish voters some intelligent, pleasant, hard-working, competent and sympathetic politicians. Boris, Rishi, Keir, Anas and Douglas just don’t cut it.
Wouldn't make a difference to anything. The fundamental problem with Scotland is that it simultaneously wants to break away but a crucial group of middle class voters won't vote for it because they're afraid it will be expensive. That leaves the more committed nationalists feeling permanently thwarted and angry, and the waverers loathing their choices because, deep down, they know that they are dependent on handouts for being kept in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
Selling the Union and being popular are, therefore, two mutually exclusive propositions. How could it be otherwise?
You really are an ignorant arse, you know nothing about Scotland but constantly pontificate your trash opinions on it, no doubt foaming at the mouth as you punch it out on the keyboard. Go and take a good look at your sorry jingoistic right wing nutjob attitude. Methinks you are projecting your own thwarted and angry nationalistic tendencies on Scotland.
You must be the nice Scot Nat that @Stuart_Dickson was talking about earlier
A psychologist would have a field day studying "Malc" as someone with persistent psychological projection, though it does seem to have become more symptomatic for him recently. The interesting examples we have in this post are "Ignorant arse", "trash opinions", "jingoistic" (hilarious-he is a nationalist lol), and best of all "angry nationalistic tendencies" .
I wonder whether all of this has got worse since he realised he is the only person still in love with Alex Salmond? Or perhaps it was since Salmond was described as a "bully and a sex pest" by his own QC? Maybe Malc thinks the latter is a compliment?
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
Hospitalisation are down week on week for the latest daily data. Even if you take a 7 day average they're only up 20%.
I can tell how concerned you are so I'm sure this will be news of some relief to you.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
But look - the NW - which is ahead of everyone else on the third/fourth wave - has passed peak hospitalisations and is on its way down again. And its peak was nowhere near the previous peaks. A Thorpe Cloud to the previous Ben Nevis and Snowdon. Nowhere near being overwhelmed. Now other regions are still increasing, but they will see the same pattern - rise to a low peak, then decline.
Apparently Grealish in tonight, but Foden probably dropped.....too risky for old waistcoat to have England's two most creative players on the pitch at the same time.....
Foden is on a booking – which I believe clear after the group stage. So it's probably a wise move. Otherwise, he'd face a suspension if he got booked tonight?
Boris Johnson’s net approval rating: -32 Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating: -3 Government’s Net Competency Rating: -36 Keir Starmer's net approval rating: -16
If you lot want better scores then the solution is hardly beyond the wit of man: offer Scottish voters some intelligent, pleasant, hard-working, competent and sympathetic politicians. Boris, Rishi, Keir, Anas and Douglas just don’t cut it.
Wouldn't make a difference to anything. The fundamental problem with Scotland is that it simultaneously wants to break away but a crucial group of middle class voters won't vote for it because they're afraid it will be expensive. That leaves the more committed nationalists feeling permanently thwarted and angry, and the waverers loathing their choices because, deep down, they know that they are dependent on handouts for being kept in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
Selling the Union and being popular are, therefore, two mutually exclusive propositions. How could it be otherwise?
You really are an ignorant arse, you know nothing about Scotland but constantly pontificate your trash opinions on it, no doubt foaming at the mouth as you punch it out on the keyboard. Go and take a good look at your sorry jingoistic right wing nutjob attitude. Methinks you are projecting your own thwarted and angry nationalistic tendencies on Scotland.
You must be the nice Scot Nat that @Stuart_Dickson was talking about earlier
A psychologist would have a field day studying "Malc" as someone with persistent psychological projection, though it does seem to have become more symptomatic for him recently. The interesting examples we have in this post are "Ignorant arse", "trash opinions", "jingoistic" (hilarious-he is a nationalist lol), and best of all "angry nationalistic tendencies" .
I wonder whether all of this has got worse since he realised he is the only person still in love with Alex Salmond? Or perhaps it was since Salmond was described as a "bully and a sex pest" by his own QC? Maybe Malc thinks the latter is a compliment?
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
But look - the NW - which is ahead of everyone else on the third/fourth wave - has passed peak hospitalisations and is on its way down again. And its peak was nowhere near the previous peaks. A Thorpe Cloud to the previous Ben Nevis and Snowdon. Nowhere near being overwhelmed. Now other regions are still increasing, but they will see the same pattern - rise to a low peak, then decline.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
But look - the NW - which is ahead of everyone else on the third/fourth wave - has passed peak hospitalisations and is on its way down again. And its peak was nowhere near the previous peaks. A Thorpe Cloud to the previous Ben Nevis and Snowdon. Nowhere near being overwhelmed. Now other regions are still increasing, but they will see the same pattern - rise to a low peak, then decline.
Almost 90% of the adults in the country have antibodies already.
We have a ton of herd immunity in the country, but there's pockets of the country without it - especially where people have rejected or not taken the vaccine yet.
The virus is filling in those pockets, but its not going to sweep the country like it could in the past.
Fascinating test match in Southampton for the slow cricket connoisseur.
Should have been timeless. Or at least a minimum of 450 overs. Especially when they gave it to England.
That would have been good. But tbf they'd have thought 6 days meant a surefire result given so many tests don't even make day 5 these days with the cavalier batting.
Every bubble above the line is a local area with declining case levels - many more than a few days ago and most of the high areas moving in that direction.
Note also that that is a lagging indicator, because it compares a seven day average now with a seven day average seven days ago. In three or four days, all the big ones on there will be above the line.
Numbers of positives in most of the hardest hit authorities - Blackburn, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley, Manchester, Salford, Pendle, Rossendale, Stockport - now clearly heading back in the right direction.
So, almost all the new cases are among teens and twenties. Among the hospitalisations, there’s very few oldies any more - as much as we can define from those groupings, anyway.
Vaccines are working!!!
Cases heatmap shows that beautifully for the North West
Apparently Grealish in tonight, but Foden probably dropped.....too risky for old waistcoat to have England's two most creative players on the pitch at the same time.....
Foden is on a booking – which I believe clear after the group stage. So it's probably a wise move. Otherwise, he'd face a suspension if he got booked tonight?
Southgate seemed very reluctant to play him through the centre, which is what I would have done.
I’m beginning to get the impression that the government are trying to sneak through the re-opening of the country by the back door without formally announcing it.
An important new NBER paper looks at impact of SIP (“shelter-in-place”) policies on excess mortality, i.e. including both deaths caused by Covid-19 AND deaths caused by lockdowns ...
Every bubble above the line is a local area with declining case levels - many more than a few days ago and most of the high areas moving in that direction.
That is a superb visualisation. I have one quibble with it: that I had to take a moment to understand what it is saying because the axes are reversed compared to what I am used to - namely that the 'independent variable' (i.e. data on the the earlier date) would be on the horizontal axis and the 'dependent variable' (later data) on the vertical axis.
I’m beginning to get the impression that the government are trying to sneak through the re-opening of the country by the back door without formally announcing it.
which would be great if they weren't busily screwing venue owners and people who've paid 15k non-refundable deposits to have weddings now rendered shit.
Apparently Grealish in tonight, but Foden probably dropped.....too risky for old waistcoat to have England's two most creative players on the pitch at the same time.....
Foden is on a booking – which I believe clear after the group stage. So it's probably a wise move. Otherwise, he'd face a suspension if he got booked tonight?
But we play Kane - again. He is slow, selfish and doesn't add much. He is a poor man's Gareth Bale.
Every bubble above the line is a local area with declining case levels - many more than a few days ago and most of the high areas moving in that direction.
That is a superb visualisation. I have one quibble with it: that I had to take a moment to understand what it is saying because the axes are reversed compared to what I am used to - namely that the 'independent variable' (i.e. data on the the earlier date) would be on the horizontal axis and the 'dependent variable' (later data) on the vertical axis.
Just think about how utterly screwed we would be if Covid's hospitilisation rate was 100% without a vaccine.
That would be Ebola, but with an asymptomatic but infectious incubation period, and humanity would have been utterly screwed by it.
If you were designing a viral weapon, that’s what you’d go for - something that people spend a week or two spreading to everyone they meet without knowing it, before they suddenly fall down seriously sick or worse.
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
Younger patients. The concentration of cases is younger down this time purely because older people are overwhelmingly protected. Older patients are less likely to respond favourably to ventilation and even ICU, so even at the peak, the skew in ICU was noticeably less towards the elderly than hospitalisations on a whole were.
Now the skew of hospitalisations is younger, anyway, and younger people will respond better to ICU assistance (including ventilation), a higher proportion of them are getting ventilated.
An important new NBER paper looks at impact of SIP (“shelter-in-place”) policies on excess mortality, i.e. including both deaths caused by Covid-19 AND deaths caused by lockdowns ...
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Absolutely agreed.
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
Younger patients. The concentration of cases is younger down this time purely because older people are overwhelmingly protected. Older patients are less likely to respond favourably to ventilation and even ICU, so even at the peak, the skew in ICU was noticeably less towards the elderly than hospitalisations on a whole were.
Now the skew of hospitalisations is younger, anyway, and younger people will respond better to ICU assistance (including ventilation), a higher proportion of them are getting ventilated.
Zerocovidianism and antivaxxery –– two cheeks of the same pompous arse.
Please don't come out with that straw-man drivel.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
There's nothing in the numbers to suggest we face a surge that would overwhelm the NHS. Death rates are so low that very small shifts in numbers look big in percentage terms. Numbers in hospital have been increasing slowly and are currently about 4% of where they were in January. Mass vaccination has worked.
I’m beginning to get the impression that the government are trying to sneak through the re-opening of the country by the back door without formally announcing it.
They’ve certainly decided that outdoor events are perfectly safe, and getting lots of good data while doing it.
(Apparently Goodwood have a few tix left for Thursday, it’s a fantastic event if anyone hasn’t been before).
An important new NBER paper looks at impact of SIP (“shelter-in-place”) policies on excess mortality, i.e. including both deaths caused by Covid-19 AND deaths caused by lockdowns ...
George Galloway was 60/1 yesterday. Now he's somewhere between 15/1 and 25/1, although the numbers are changing all the time. Of course whether this reflects reality is another matter. It may just be punters messing about, so to speak.
Comments
Yes, it is a very sinister trend. And the analogy is spot on – someone said this to me IRL the other day. Very apt.
VE against hospitalisation with Delta was similar to that seen with Alpha: 94% (46-99) after 1 dose and 96% (86-99) after 2 doses of BNT162b2; 71% (51-83) after 1 dose and 92% (75-97) after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 (Table)
These findings indicate very high levels of protection against hospitalisation with the Delta variant with 1 or 2 doses of either vaccine.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=North West
Now NW is a big region, and the descent will be a bit bumpy: my reading is that GM, Cheshire and Lancashire have turned the corner but Merseyside is still on the way up. So there may be a second bump. But the point is it hasn't got very high. And if the NW hasn't got very high there's no reason to think anywhere else will either.
Get vaccinated, people, it’s the only way out of this!
You might like to reflect that the PHE report "demonstrating" 90%+ protection against hospitalisation - the report that Steve Baker complained hadn't been disclosed to Boris Johnson - was for the most part based on results that weren't even statistically significant. But do you understand what "statistically significant" means?
I do not know anything about betting sadly
Incidentally, are you a fluent Swedish speaker? You might not realise the startling anglicisation going on.
Ravens parallel great apes in physical and social cognitive skills
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77060-8
Also, where are you seeing LostPassword say the risk of hospitalisation from flu is 10%, he said his risk of hospitalisation from COVID has been reduced by 90%. Are you so deluded that you believe that COVID carries a hospitalisation risk of 100%? So much for smartest guy in the room.
https://www.autosport.com/general/news/goodwood-festival-of-speed-to-go-ahead-as-pilot-event/6594104/
The only thing that's concerning is ventilation figures. Deaths are about 5% of the peak (but may lag), aAdmissions and in-hospital figures are about 10% of the peak, but MV figures are 20% of the peak.
Why there are disproportionately more MV figures now I'm not sure. Maybe people are being put on it quicker this time around?
It’s ok to not yet know things.
And to plan on the basis that you don’t yet know things.
That’s what the government is doing, and for that, I applaud them.
A common theme in complaints by minorities is that they see officialdom as questioning them in the later style.
It seems that proportionately people going into hospital as it stands at the minute are twice as likely to end up on a MV, but half as likely to die. Those two things don't seem to go hand in hand.
Though I rail against the government and the cabal of Marxists who advise them, I concede I am some bloke on the internet whose reputation doesn't depend on not being wrong on this.
Vaccines are working!!!
Its the asymptomatic spreading it to many more people that makes this virus so difficult to contain.
And there's the practical objection that if you have rules and enforce them you end up looking bloody ridiculous, as the French often manage to.
Now it may be that the extremes are getting stronger than they once were, and there's some evidence of that in the nature of the public discourse. But actually there isn't very much evidence of that from the vaccination position - the uptake has been very high. It's been lower in some groups, but that doesn't necessarily relate to extremist politics - it brings in factors like strong religious faith, poverty and social exclusion, and some fairly deep-seated cultural views on medicine. The evidence of political extremists cutting through to significant numbers on this particular subject is remarkably scant.
Every bubble above the line is a local area with declining case levels - many more than a few days ago and most of the high areas moving in that direction.
What it's about is not at all to do with "Zero COVID". It's about preventing yet another surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS.
In case you haven't noticed, not only cases, but also hospitalisations and deaths are currently rising by 34%+ per week.
Of course vaccines can reduce the percentages that go to hospital and die, but frankly with the 60% who are most vulnerable already doubly vaccinated, they're not going to fall much further. You need to control infection too, and it's not happening.
But I know it's a waste of time saying it here.
It's very annoying that the hospitalisation are segmented the way they are. 18-64 grrrrrrrrr.
You need to learn to live with disease and treat those who do get sick.
I can tell how concerned you are so I'm sure this will be news of some relief to you.
Now other regions are still increasing, but they will see the same pattern - rise to a low peak, then decline.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=North West
The NHS is not going to be overwhelmed.
We have a ton of herd immunity in the country, but there's pockets of the country without it - especially where people have rejected or not taken the vaccine yet.
The virus is filling in those pockets, but its not going to sweep the country like it could in the past.
Journalists confused about the rules. Surprisingly.
Numbers of positives in most of the hardest hit authorities - Blackburn, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley, Manchester, Salford, Pendle, Rossendale, Stockport - now clearly heading back in the right direction.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
Do lockdowns save lives?
An important new NBER paper looks at impact of SIP (“shelter-in-place”) policies on excess mortality, i.e. including both deaths caused by Covid-19 AND deaths caused by lockdowns ...
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
·
4h
Replying to
@cricketwyvern
... The conclusion:
“we fail to find that SIP policies saved lives. To the contrary, we find a positive association between SIP policies and excess deaths.”
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1407297414038499334
I have one quibble with it: that I had to take a moment to understand what it is saying because the axes are reversed compared to what I am used to - namely that the 'independent variable' (i.e. data on the the earlier date) would be on the horizontal axis and the 'dependent variable' (later data) on the vertical axis.
One of which will put both sides out. The other would suit both just fine.
If you were designing a viral weapon, that’s what you’d go for - something that people spend a week or two spreading to everyone they meet without knowing it, before they suddenly fall down seriously sick or worse.
The concentration of cases is younger down this time purely because older people are overwhelmingly protected.
Older patients are less likely to respond favourably to ventilation and even ICU, so even at the peak, the skew in ICU was noticeably less towards the elderly than hospitalisations on a whole were.
Now the skew of hospitalisations is younger, anyway, and younger people will respond better to ICU assistance (including ventilation), a higher proportion of them are getting ventilated.
(Apparently Goodwood have a few tix left for Thursday, it’s a fantastic event if anyone hasn’t been before).
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/covid-outbreak-kenwyn-care-home-5556416
All of the cases have been asymptomatic....its like vaccines work or something.
Oh wait. It isn't.