Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

One thing we thankfully haven’t seen in the UK – a political divide on being vaccinated – politicalb

13

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get vaccinated, people!

    So long as it's not SinoVac.

    JAKARTA, June 17 (Reuters) - More than 350 doctors and medical workers have caught COVID-19 in Indonesia despite being vaccinated with Sinovac and dozens have been hospitalised, officials said, as concerns grow about the efficacy of some vaccines against more infectious variants.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hundreds-indonesian-doctors-contract-covid-19-despite-vaccination-dozens-2021-06-17/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    How does that work here? There is only one school within 12 miles. No car (and the up to 3 hours a day free time to drive them a potential 35 miles each way on rural roads), no choice.
    So a policy for the wealthy, urban elite as ever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    How does that work here? There is only one school within 12 miles. No car (and the up to 3 hours a day free time to drive them a potential 35 miles each way on rural roads), no choice.
    So a policy for the wealthy, urban elite as ever.
    How will they be worse off than currently?

    It seems odd to say "oh, because the countryside can't have it, towns and cities can't have it". Applied broadly, that would mean no London Underground.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Prompted by your post, I've just had a quick look. Five minutes or so of adverts, then Dan Wooton talking about "Greatest Britons" – none of whom seem to be both British and great. Nothing on the by-election.
    It's not supposed to be a news channel seems to be the standard retort.
    So what is it then?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,205
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Peter Fleet ( the Tory candidate in Chesham) is 6 feet 9 inches. If he wins I would assume he will overtake Daniel Kawczynski, who is a mere 6 feet 8.5 inches as the tallest MP (presumably in history).
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    Unilever are woke on steroids. Also Ben and Jerry's pre acquisition were very right on
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,859
    edited June 2021
    UK Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    Both Magnum and Ben & Jerry's are part of Unilever.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 220

    Bucks Free Press - Chaos at Wycombe election count as 'crowd thrown out'

    https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/19289141.chaos-wycombe-election-count-mobsters-thrown-out/

    EDIT - An angry crowd has been thrown out of Wycombe Leisure Centre as results for the first unitary elections continue to come in.

    The BFP's Local Democracy Reporter Rory Butler is at the count and videoed the events as they unfolded.

    He tweeted: "Mob ejected from Wycombe Leisure Centre just now. Election count disrupted.

    "Large group of men tried to break into hall. Security blocked doors.

    "Talk of a “posse”. Anger, fear, confusion. More to follow."

    In the video, a group of men can be seen angrily arguing before they walk out of the leisure centre.

    Our reporter also spoke to someone at the scene and said at least 20 men in cars tried to "storm" the Wycombe elections, with a spokesman saying the behaviour was "completely unacceptable".

    Buckinghamshire Council said in a statement: "There was an incident at the Wycombe Leisure Centre count earlier.

    "Police were called and things are under control. The count continues for the remaining wards and parishes."

    Thames Valley Police has been contacted for more details.

    👽 👽 👽
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_&_Jerry's
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,737
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    Well that's a more radical upheaval, but I like it in principle.

    It was quite striking when we moved from sending our daughters to nursery to sending them to primary school that suddenly you weren't seen as a customer any more. At best, you're 'part of the school community' - at worst, you're an afterthought. The head at my youngest daughter's infant school is an amazing man - never have I met anyone so dedicated to the education and well-being of the children in his care. The head at the junior school's priorities are, in order 1) the wellbeing of the teachers, 2) the wellbeing of the pupils, 3) the education of the pupils. Other schools might prioritise exactly what parents want, or they might prioritise whatever weird little hobbyhorse the head has.
    But you don't, in practice, get a choice. All the schools are full so if your local school doesn't suit you you can't just decide to go elsewhere. That is, of course, the main practical issue with your voucher suggestion. You would need schools to have sufficient places that it was possible, at least in principle, to move schools to one which suited your needs better. And it would mean that good schools would drive out bad.
    But if it could be done, wonderful. It works ok with nurseries. And it leads to a situation where you can choose a nursery which is right for you and where different nurseries fulfil different niches. No one sane is suggesting that nurseries ought to be controlled by the state and that you can only go to the one that the state allocates you a place at.

    If you were designing a situation from scratch, this would probably be it. As it is, the upheaval in moving from the current situation to an idealised one is so great it probably places it in the 'too difficult' box.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 220
    Roger said:

    Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    No.5 in Europe is pretty good going. We are the second largest country.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Other dull trivia Peter Fleet was the losing Tory candidate in Southampton Itchen in 1997. A rather unusual 24 gap between attempts to get into Parliament.

    If he is successful he’ll become the 5th Tory to have lost in Southampton Itchen to be a sitting member of Parliament - Royston Smith, Christopher Chope, Flick Drummond and Caroline Noakes. I’d say that’s probably a record too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    How does that work here? There is only one school within 12 miles. No car (and the up to 3 hours a day free time to drive them a potential 35 miles each way on rural roads), no choice.
    So a policy for the wealthy, urban elite as ever.
    How will they be worse off than currently?

    It seems odd to say "oh, because the countryside can't have it, towns and cities can't have it". Applied broadly, that would mean no London Underground.
    Because it would be yet another advantage that big cities, with literally a hundred choices, would have over towns, with maybe a half a dozen, would have over well to do rural areas, with one or two very good schools would have over poor backwaters, which take what there is.
    It would entrench regional and urban/rural inequality. The very opposite of the stated government agenda.
    A "London Challenge" for areas without choice would be better.
    So long as education is treated as a market, then the wealthy win.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,284
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Prompted by your post, I've just had a quick look. Five minutes or so of adverts, then Dan Wooton talking about "Greatest Britons" – none of whom seem to be both British and great. Nothing on the by-election.
    It's not supposed to be a news channel seems to be the standard retort.
    So what is it then?
    It's one more contribution to shifting the centre of political debate in the UK further to the right. The right realise that political arguments are won over decades and GB News can make a contribution to influencing public opinion.

    The left doesn't seem to have the same commitment to the long-term political struggle. One reason why there's always the same obsession with tactical voting at every general election - always looking no further than the next day.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Just laid the LDs for £15 @4.9

    I have no inside info, so small stakes
  • GraphiaGraphia Posts: 3
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    You are confusing scholarships with bursaries. In general: scholarships aren't means-tested and are small; bursaries are means-tested and range all the way up to full-fees awards.

    As for the 67% at Oxford and Cambridge who didn't attend private schools, it's not as if they're typically sons and daughters of barrow boys. Many are well-off and owe their success at (and at the end of their time at) state schools to family connections and wealth (which in some cases bought private tutoring). Oxford and Cambridge universities both love the "% from state schools" metric and it's best not to accept it as the main measure if trying to dent what is basically caste nepotism (involving more than one caste ofc) however politely it may be framed in terms of a percentage.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    Brom said:

    Peter Fleet ( the Tory candidate in Chesham) is 6 feet 9 inches. If he wins I would assume he will overtake Daniel Kawczynski, who is a mere 6 feet 8.5 inches as the tallest MP (presumably in history).

    So long as that isn't the only thing he seeks to outdo him in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Nunu3 said:

    Roger said:

    Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    No.5 in Europe is pretty good going. We are the second largest country.
    (Assuming - of course - that neither Turkey or Russia is considerd as being in Europe. And assuming, of course, that both countries Covid numbers can be trusted.

    Also, France, Italy and the UK all have pretty similar populations.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Things I discovered today: the French government posts a monthly country population size estimate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,098
    Turnout 52.9%
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Andy Holmes
    @AndyHolmesMedia
    ·
    2m
    Turnout is 52.2 percent here in #CheshamAndAmershambyelection which is roughly 20 percent lower than the average in this seat. 38,009 votes in total to count.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    How does that work here? There is only one school within 12 miles. No car (and the up to 3 hours a day free time to drive them a potential 35 miles each way on rural roads), no choice.
    So a policy for the wealthy, urban elite as ever.
    How will they be worse off than currently?

    It seems odd to say "oh, because the countryside can't have it, towns and cities can't have it". Applied broadly, that would mean no London Underground.
    Because it would be yet another advantage that big cities, with literally a hundred choices, would have over towns, with maybe a half a dozen, would have over well to do rural areas, with one or two very good schools would have over poor backwaters, which take what there is.
    It would entrench regional and urban/rural inequality. The very opposite of the stated government agenda.
    A "London Challenge" for areas without choice would be better.
    So long as education is treated as a market, then the wealthy win.
    You're still going for a levelling down agenda: if it doesn't work for the countryside, then it shouldn't be tried.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,859
    Nunu3 said:

    Roger said:

    Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    No.5 in Europe is pretty good going. We are the second largest country.
    You haven't taken over the night shift from Carlotta and Phillip have you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725
    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    In the end Unilever wins!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    ping said:

    Andy Holmes
    @AndyHolmesMedia
    ·
    2m
    Turnout is 52.2 percent here in #CheshamAndAmershambyelection which is roughly 20 percent lower than the average in this seat. 38,009 votes in total to count.

    So... I had forecast that the Conservatives would lose a third of their vote, dropping to 20,000.

    Based on that turnout number, I'd reckon the Conservatives are a little lower: say 18-19,000, with the LDs on 16-17,000.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Andy Holmes
    @AndyHolmesMedia
    ·
    2m
    Turnout is 52.2 percent here in #CheshamAndAmershambyelection which is roughly 20 percent lower than the average in this seat. 38,009 votes in total to count.

    So... I had forecast that the Conservatives would lose a third of their vote, dropping to 20,000.

    Based on that turnout number, I'd reckon the Conservatives are a little lower: say 18-19,000, with the LDs on 16-17,000.
    Prepared to lay another £30 @4.8 if yr interested - on bfx
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 220
    Roger said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Roger said:

    Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    No.5 in Europe is pretty good going. We are the second largest country.
    You haven't taken over the night shift from Carlotta and Phillip have you?
    Are you of the zero covid brigade? Because that is never ever going to happen, we need to live with this now.

    Vast majority of people get over it rather quickly, enough is enough, we can't swap our freedom to save every single life.

    Blame the Chinese government.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Ben and Jerry's wokism pre-dates 'woke' itself. It is integral to their identity as a company. Without it, they would not be Ben and Jerry's.

    That is not to say that I agree with their politics: on many issues, I do not. But there would be no raison d'être for them without their political and social views.
    MaxPB said:

    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    In the end Unilever wins!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,725
    What I don't like about Ben & Jerry's is that when someone calls them out on their bullshit they always reply with something stupid like "you're arguing with ice cream" it's such a dick move because they know they have no way to actually engage with anyone who disagrees with them without looking completey stupid.

    I've chosen not to buy their ice cream and I tend to stick to Waitrose 1 as it's really very good. When we're allowed to go to Switzerland it will be Mövenpick. I recommend it to everyone who goes to Switzerland, it's the god of ice cream.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Ok, I’m calling it quits on the betting.

    Laid the lds for £35 @ ~4.8

    Off to sleep
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,737
    Roger said:

    UK Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    1 - apart from France, of course. But this stat is pretty meaningless, because it depends on the amount of testing being done. I think the UK does rather more than anyone else. #positive tests <> #actual cases. Also the UK is of course one of the largest countries - per capita is a much more sensible measure.
    2 - see above. The UK is doing far, far more testing. I very much doubt the UK has the most cases. Otherwise we would have the most deaths. See also the point about per capita
    3 - a) Again, the per capita issue. The UK is kind of upper-mid-table per capita. We are a big country, we'd expect to have a lot of deaths.
    b) in any case, these statistics are a long way from being comparable, because of different ways of recording the data. Excess deaths is a much better measure, by which we are also mid-table ish.
    c) Even if the stats were recorded identically, it's very difficult to make comparisons. Has the SW had far fewer deaths than the NW because the SW has managed it better? Or is it down to issues like population density, general health, housing occupancy levels, climate (possibly), employment, etc? Of course it's the latter. And so it is between countries.
    d) A pedant notes that even in raw deaths, the UK is no longer No 1 (Russia says hello.)
    4) a) Again, PER CAPITA. The third largest country has the fifth largest number of new deaths isn't particularly lamentable.
    b) Nor is it, as far as I can see, accurate. There's loads of European countries getting more than the UK of actual deaths, regardless of per capita.

    Certainly agree that Dom was right about politicians and civil servants being woefully innumerate though.

    I'm sure you know all this of course and are just trolling :smile:

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Given over a third of A grade A levels come from private schools they shouldn't.

    Though 70% of Cambridge students and 68% of Oxford students are now state educated

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-09-03/proportion-of-state-school-pupils-at-cambridge-reaches-record-high
    https://cherwell.org/2021/05/11/oxford-university-state-school-admission-intake-reaches-record-high-of-68-6/#:~:text=The data broadly suggests an,admitted between 2016 and 2020.
    Not a fan of equal opportunity then @HYUFD?
    Yes I am, just not a fan of equality of outcome.

    The percentage of state school pupils at Oxbridge is now about right ie 2/3, the same as the percentage of top A grade A Levels that go to state school pupils
    The 7% of pupils in who are in the private sector get 33% of the Oxbridge places.

    Do you think people entering private education are that much brighter than those entering the state sector, to the extent that they are six times more likely to get an Oxbridge place?
    That's misleading. Perhaps one third of places at private schools will come from people on scholarships, and they are likely to be quite bright (on average).
    The maybe one answer is to return to offering state scholarships to private schools?

    Or maybe all schools should be independent? And each child comes with a "voucher" that can be spent with the school.
    How does that work here? There is only one school within 12 miles. No car (and the up to 3 hours a day free time to drive them a potential 35 miles each way on rural roads), no choice.
    So a policy for the wealthy, urban elite as ever.
    How will they be worse off than currently?

    It seems odd to say "oh, because the countryside can't have it, towns and cities can't have it". Applied broadly, that would mean no London Underground.
    Because it would be yet another advantage that big cities, with literally a hundred choices, would have over towns, with maybe a half a dozen, would have over well to do rural areas, with one or two very good schools would have over poor backwaters, which take what there is.
    It would entrench regional and urban/rural inequality. The very opposite of the stated government agenda.
    A "London Challenge" for areas without choice would be better.
    So long as education is treated as a market, then the wealthy win.
    You're still going for a levelling down agenda: if it doesn't work for the countryside, then it shouldn't be tried.
    I can see we aren't going to agree. Nor convince the other.
    For me, education, and, in particular, Secondary education, is a perfect market fallacy. Creating more distortions than it solves.
    I will bid you good night with best wishes.
  • GraphiaGraphia Posts: 3
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Why?

    Surely they should get the best, most able, students they can, irrespective of their background.
    No, they should take the students with the best potential.
    That's a fair point.

    And I benefited from that. I was from a middling comprehensive, with average grades (well, not average, obviously, but nor did I have 15 A*s at GCSE and predicted 5 A*s at A Level).

    But I was articulate and they felt I had the potential to perform.

    When I was there, there was a positive correlation between those Colleges that took the greatest number of people from State schools (and yes, Trinity was number one there) and the proportion of Firsts.
    "Greatest number" but what about the percentage, given that Trinity has more undergraduates than any other Cambridge college?

    Colleges should be deprived of the right to admit. The whole college system should be dumped. Turn them into halls of residence with randomised membership every term or year from among that portion of students who wish to live in a hall of residence in the first place. Seize their assets and fund their remaining undergraduate services - which would mostly be accommodation and board - centrally. Aside from anything else, think of how much money is wasted by all the duplication of functions at the moment. More importantly, who wants to encourage loyalty to institutions? Contrary to reactionary myth, that always cuts against the encouragement of independence of thought.

    As for admission, let it be run by departments using a numerus clausus and ban interviews. Tricky edge cases? Don't let the department know the school name.


  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    The posts by @nico67 FPT have really angered me.

    Antivax bullshit.

    See also @darkage on this thread.

    Very, very sad to see.

    I've had the vaccine. I just respect peoples reasons for not having it.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,031
    Strange result in Norwich - Labour hold the county seat in Sewell but lose the district seat to the Greens.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Graphia said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Why?

    Surely they should get the best, most able, students they can, irrespective of their background.
    No, they should take the students with the best potential.
    That's a fair point.

    And I benefited from that. I was from a middling comprehensive, with average grades (well, not average, obviously, but nor did I have 15 A*s at GCSE and predicted 5 A*s at A Level).

    But I was articulate and they felt I had the potential to perform.

    When I was there, there was a positive correlation between those Colleges that took the greatest number of people from State schools (and yes, Trinity was number one there) and the proportion of Firsts.
    "Greatest number" but what about the percentage, given that Trinity has more undergraduates than any other Cambridge college?

    Colleges should be deprived of the right to admit. The whole college system should be dumped. Turn them into halls of residence with randomised membership every term or year from among that portion of students who wish to live in a hall of residence in the first place. Seize their assets and fund their remaining undergraduate services - which would mostly be accommodation and board - centrally. Aside from anything else, think of how much money is wasted by all the duplication of functions at the moment. More importantly, who wants to encourage loyalty to institutions? Contrary to reactionary myth, that always cuts against the encouragement of independence of thought.

    As for admission, let it be run by departments using a numerus clausus and ban interviews. Tricky edge cases? Don't let the department know the school name.


    As a general rule, people should be allowed to do what they want, subject to certain conditions.

    I think the Oxbridge Colleges compete to offer the best education and experience they can to students. They compete to attract talent.

    I personally think that institutions competing to attract people is a good thing.
  • GraphiaGraphia Posts: 3
    edited June 2021
    Graphia said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    FPT: Trinity College has more Nobel Laureates than Oxf*rd.

    Trinity has taken 22 students from Westminster School, which apparently is some sort of record for a single college/school pairing.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/17/revealed-link-westminster-school-cambridge/ (£££)
    They should be limited by law to taking no more than 7% from private schools.
    Why?

    Surely they should get the best, most able, students they can, irrespective of their background.
    No, they should take the students with the best potential.
    That's a fair point.

    And I benefited from that. I was from a middling comprehensive, with average grades (well, not average, obviously, but nor did I have 15 A*s at GCSE and predicted 5 A*s at A Level).

    But I was articulate and they felt I had the potential to perform.

    When I was there, there was a positive correlation between those Colleges that took the greatest number of people from State schools (and yes, Trinity was number one there) and the proportion of Firsts.
    "Greatest number" but what about the percentage, given that Trinity has more undergraduates than any other Cambridge college?

    Colleges should be deprived of the right to admit. The whole college system should be dumped. Turn them into halls of residence with randomised membership every term or year from among that portion of students who wish to live in a hall of residence in the first place. Seize their assets and fund their remaining undergraduate services - which would mostly be accommodation and board - centrally. Aside from anything else, think of how much money is wasted by all the duplication of functions at the moment. More importantly, who wants to encourage loyalty to institutions? Contrary to reactionary myth, that always cuts against the encouragement of independence of thought.

    As for admission, let it be run by departments using a numerus clausus and ban interviews. Tricky edge cases? Don't let the department know the school name.
    Half the problem would be solved if the university was forced to use a numerus clausus for admissions, and if as a consequence the role of the "admissions tutor" went the way of the lamplighter. Widening access could be addressed by the state independently of the university. Now that would be a good use of the seized college funds.

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    TimT said:

    Ben and Jerry's wokism pre-dates 'woke' itself. It is integral to their identity as a company. Without it, they would not be Ben and Jerry's.

    That is not to say that I agree with their politics: on many issues, I do not. But there would be no raison d'être for them without their political and social views.

    MaxPB said:

    theProle said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben and Jerry's can't see a woke bandwagon without jumping on board. I've no idea why, they sell ice-cream, which I don't think is a particularly political commodity.
    I deliberately don't buy it because of this, and I suspect I'm not alone - their political activism probably does more harm than good to their sales. Whichever side you pick on the culture wars, you will get a stronger negative reaction than a positive one - no one will be buying Ben and Jerry's instead of Magnums because of their woke stance, but some people won't buy Ben and Jerry's on principle.
    Meanwhile nobody avoids buying Magnums out of political principle, because the brand's owners are sensible enough to keep their political views to themselves.
    In the end Unilever wins!
    Each time you lick a peace pop, you are contributing to world peace.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    IF we can move on from the byelection riot that did NOT break out . . .

    Will the fact that it was a rainy day in C&A benefit the Lib Dems over the Tories? My guess is, yes, because IF there's any intensity gap, the Conservatives are on the short end of the stick at the moment.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Prompted by your post, I've just had a quick look. Five minutes or so of adverts, then Dan Wooton talking about "Greatest Britons" – none of whom seem to be both British and great. Nothing on the by-election.
    It's not supposed to be a news channel seems to be the standard retort.
    So what is it then?
    Influencer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,523
    Sewell (Norwich) result:

    GRN: 46.1% (+29.3)
    LAB: 39.7% (-12.8)
    CON: 12.6% (-0.8)
    LDEM: 1.6% (-5.1)

    Green GAIN from Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,494

    IF we can move on from the byelection riot that did NOT break out . . .

    Will the fact that it was a rainy day in C&A benefit the Lib Dems over the Tories? My guess is, yes, because IF there's any intensity gap, the Conservatives are on the short end of the stick at the moment.

    But the riot DID break out.

    Just not tonight..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391

    IF we can move on from the byelection riot that did NOT break out . . .

    Will the fact that it was a rainy day in C&A benefit the Lib Dems over the Tories? My guess is, yes, because IF there's any intensity gap, the Conservatives are on the short end of the stick at the moment.

    But the riot DID break out.

    Just not tonight..
    "I predict a riot, I predict a riot".
    PM : "Captain Hindsight."
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Bored of sleep.

    LDs last matched @4.3
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,031
    Con hold in Devon by 15 votes - Green intervention wins 74 votes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    darkage said:

    The posts by @nico67 FPT have really angered me.

    Antivax bullshit.

    See also @darkage on this thread.

    Very, very sad to see.

    I've had the vaccine. I just respect peoples reasons for not having it.
    Whether or not you yourself have had it, your posts carry a sinister antivax theme.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796

    IF we can move on from the byelection riot that did NOT break out . . .

    Will the fact that it was a rainy day in C&A benefit the Lib Dems over the Tories? My guess is, yes, because IF there's any intensity gap, the Conservatives are on the short end of the stick at the moment.

    Was it a rainy day? Rain may have been forecast but did it fall? Royal Ascot was dry, against expectations.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,859
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    UK Covid reality check.............

    Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
    New Cases-No 1 in Europe
    Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
    New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

    Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

    1 - apart from France, of course. But this stat is pretty meaningless, because it depends on the amount of testing being done. I think the UK does rather more than anyone else. #positive tests <> #actual cases. Also the UK is of course one of the largest countries - per capita is a much more sensible measure.
    2 - see above. The UK is doing far, far more testing. I very much doubt the UK has the most cases. Otherwise we would have the most deaths. See also the point about per capita
    3 - a) Again, the per capita issue. The UK is kind of upper-mid-table per capita. We are a big country, we'd expect to have a lot of deaths.
    b) in any case, these statistics are a long way from being comparable, because of different ways of recording the data. Excess deaths is a much better measure, by which we are also mid-table ish.
    c) Even if the stats were recorded identically, it's very difficult to make comparisons. Has the SW had far fewer deaths than the NW because the SW has managed it better? Or is it down to issues like population density, general health, housing occupancy levels, climate (possibly), employment, etc? Of course it's the latter. And so it is between countries.
    d) A pedant notes that even in raw deaths, the UK is no longer No 1 (Russia says hello.)
    4) a) Again, PER CAPITA. The third largest country has the fifth largest number of new deaths isn't particularly lamentable.
    b) Nor is it, as far as I can see, accurate. There's loads of European countries getting more than the UK of actual deaths, regardless of per capita.

    Certainly agree that Dom was right about politicians and civil servants being woefully innumerate though.

    I'm sure you know all this of course and are just trolling :smile:

    Not trolling but keen that Johnson and his government is exposed as being one of the most useless and malign in recent history.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    C&A betting is a bit weird. By now, you'd expect the exchange to have swung a lot more (in one direction or the other).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Looking at pictures of the C&A count, am struck by similarities and differences compared with election counts in my own bailiwick, King County WA.

    Main difference is much greater reliance on technology at King Co Elections. This stems from two factors, complexity of ballot (for general elections in KC everything from President to sewer district tax levy) and size of electorate (1.5 million registered voters in KC)

    Main similarity is with staff, with diverse group of workers diligently laboring at processing, sorting and counting ballots in a methodical, careful way, supervised by more senior managers and observed by media, party and candidate representatives - and candidates themselves.

    My hat is off to all of you tonight!

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    IF we can move on from the byelection riot that did NOT break out . . .

    Will the fact that it was a rainy day in C&A benefit the Lib Dems over the Tories? My guess is, yes, because IF there's any intensity gap, the Conservatives are on the short end of the stick at the moment.

    Was it a rainy day? Rain may have been forecast but did it fall? Royal Ascot was dry, against expectations.
    Blog said it was a rainy day. And picks of candidates & supporters canvassing seem to confirm that, looked damp to drippy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,494

    Sewell (Norwich) result:

    GRN: 46.1% (+29.3)
    LAB: 39.7% (-12.8)
    CON: 12.6% (-0.8)
    LDEM: 1.6% (-5.1)

    Green GAIN from Labour.

    Starmer must go!

    Oh, and Davey too.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    posted on C&A live blog from editor of Bucks Free Press -

    It’s late BUT I understand that’s the lowest turnout % this seat has ever seen. Yes, it’s a by-election and lower turnout was expected but this continues the narrative of the Tories base staying home. Watch this space
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    posted on C&A live blog from editor of Bucks Free Press -

    It’s late BUT I understand that’s the lowest turnout % this seat has ever seen. Yes, it’s a by-election and lower turnout was expected but this continues the narrative of the Tories base staying home. Watch this space

    At the referendum in 2016 C&A had the highest turnout of all 650 parliamentary constituencies
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    C&A betting is a bit weird. By now, you'd expect the exchange to have swung a lot more (in one direction or the other).

    The market is dead.

    the >£700k traded should have made for a lively Inplay market, but no
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    C& A live blog - Our reporter Rory at Chesham Leisure Centre for the count tells us everyone is taking a short break from duties for something to eat and drink, so no major updates expected imminently!

    Rory Butler - It’s a hot and stuffy one tonight at the #CheshamAndAmersham by-election, and while the count continues I’m half tempted to get a few lengths in to cool down
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,923

    posted on C&A live blog from editor of Bucks Free Press -

    It’s late BUT I understand that’s the lowest turnout % this seat has ever seen. Yes, it’s a by-election and lower turnout was expected but this continues the narrative of the Tories base staying home. Watch this space

    No, it just continues the narrative of low turnouts at by-elections.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Trying to work out what would make my LD lay @~4.8 a value bet

    I’m going to go with a 1500 margin.

    If the LDs win, or the tories win by fewer than 1.5k, then it was a bad bet. More than 1.5k then I got value.

    What do pb’ers recon?

    Any guesses on the Tory margin?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    C&A live blog - Candidates gather to assess the validity of any spoilt ballot papers received tonight
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    LDs just matched @ 2/1

    Edit now evens

    Someone’s confident
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    ping said:

    Trying to work out what would make my LD lay @~4.8 a value bet

    I’m going to go with a 1500 margin.

    If the LDs win, or the tories win by fewer than 1.5k, then it was a bad bet. More than 1.5k then I got value.

    What do pb’ers recon?

    Any guesses on the Tory margin?

    It could be anything between -2,000 and +3,000 (85% confidence interval)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - ‘Alito was just pissed’: Trump’s Supreme Court breaks down along surprising lines
    Thursday’s decisions laid bare an emerging rift within the court’s conservative majority.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/17/alito-supreme-court-trump-495121

    The key fault line in the Supreme Court that Donald Trump built is not the ideological clash between right and left — it’s the increasingly acrimonious conflict within the court’s now-dominant conservative wing.

    Those rifts burst wide open on Thursday with two of the highest-profile decisions of the court’s current term. In both the big cases — involving Obamacare and a Catholic group refusing to vet same-sex couples as foster parents in Philadelphia — conservative justices unleashed sharp attacks that seemed aimed at their fellow GOP appointees for failing to grapple with the core issues the cases presented. . . .

    Leading the charge from the right in both cases Thursday was Justice Samuel Alito, who penned caustic opinions taking his colleagues to task for issuing narrow rulings that seemed to him to be aimed at defusing political tensions rather than interpreting the law.

    “After receiving more than 2,500 pages of briefing and after more than a half-year of post-argument cogitation, the Court has emitted a wisp of a decision that leaves religious liberty in a confused and vulnerable state. Those who count on this Court to stand up for the First Amendment have every right to be disappointed—as am I,” Alito wrote in the foster-care case, notwithstanding the Catholic charity’s unanimous victory. . . .

    While Alito observed the court’s traditional decorum by railing at “the majority,” there was little doubt his criticism was aimed primarily at Chief Justice John Roberts, who provided the pivotal vote to uphold Obamacare nine years ago and voted Thursday to leave the law intact by concluding that the Republican-led states seeking to overturn it lacked legal standing to sue.

    In the latest Obamacare case, the chief justice left authorship of the majority opinion to the court’s longest-serving justice, Stephen Breyer, but the result was vintage Roberts: a largely-technical, 7-2 decision finding a lack of standing for the states and individuals challenging the law, while pushing aside more fundamental questions about the law’s constitutionality.

    Roberts was the author of the opinion the court issued Thursday finding very narrow grounds to strike down Philadelphia’s ban on Catholic Social Services due to its policy against vetting same-sex couples for foster care. . . . .

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Betfair just moved.

    LD odds on!!!!!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    ping said:

    LDs just matched @ 2/1

    Edit now evens

    Someone’s confident

    Or somebody is ramping the market, hoping people will think someone knows something.

    One of the two.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Betfair jumping wildly
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,737

    C&A live blog - Candidates gather to assess the validity of any spoilt ballot papers received tonight

    I love the fact that we are getting excited commentary from an American. You're very welcome to join in our obsession with the minutiae of British Politics, of course, and the perspectives from elsewhere arealways interesting. But I bet there aren't many Americans eagerly awaiting the result of a by-election in Buckinghamshire.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,900
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben & Jerry's, that plunky independent hippy ice cream maker from Vermont....owned and operated by the giant multi-national UniLever, and for the UK made in a mega plant in Israel? That Ben & Jerry's?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben & Jerry's, that plunky independent hippy ice cream maker from Vermont....owned and operated by the giant multi-national UniLever, and for the UK made in a mega plant in Israel? That Ben & Jerry's?
    Hey, giant multinationals have feelings too...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2021

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben & Jerry's, that plunky independent hippy ice cream maker from Vermont....owned and operated by the giant multi-national UniLever, and for the UK made in a mega plant in Israel? That Ben & Jerry's?
    Ben & Jerry's was around for a goodly while in the USA before they sold to UniLever, and are famous as the hippy ice cream. Plenty of very conservative people love the stuff, with the view that at least goddamn commie hippies are good for SOMETHING!

    EDIT - PLUS a fair number of progressives think that Ben & Jerry's has been too corporate for a long time.

    Keep in mind that B&J is quintessentially (at this juncture anyway) quintessentially Vermont.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    LD matched at 1.06!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Not sure what to make of the money moves in this instance. There’s less than 50k in total on the Lib Dems
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    MikeL said:

    LD matched at 1.06!

    For 600£
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    You can't lay Cons at any price and LDs last matched at 1.1.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,737
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    LDs just matched @ 2/1

    Edit now evens

    Someone’s confident

    Or somebody is ramping the market, hoping people will think someone knows something.

    One of the two.
    Very different seats of course, but if the Tories are struggling in C&A, then the 3.5 available at Ladbrokes for Labour to win B&S looks attractive. (Better odds may be available elsewhere - I just cite this as an indication)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Brom said:

    Not sure what to make of the money moves in this instance. There’s less than 50k in total on the Lib Dems

    Most people bet on the LDs by laying the Conservatives.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    C&A live blog - Rory Butler: Been sworn against revealing my source for this (suffice to say they’re in opposition) but looking over the trays tonight, they said: “I think the @LibDems have won the #CheshamAndAmersham by-election.” The yellow tray on the main table from this vantage is packed!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,900
    edited June 2021

    MaxPB said:

    IKEA have u-turned on GB News. So has the Open University. I expect the others will fall in line soon enough. It will just be Ben and Jerry's but it's shit ice cream anyway.

    Ben & Jerry's, that plunky independent hippy ice cream maker from Vermont....owned and operated by the giant multi-national UniLever, and for the UK made in a mega plant in Israel? That Ben & Jerry's?
    Ben & Jerry's was around for a goodly while in the USA before they sold to UniLever, and are famous as the hippy ice cream. Plenty of very conservative people love the stuff, with the view that at least goddamn commie hippies are good for SOMETHING!

    EDIT - PLUS a fair number of progressives think that Ben & Jerry's has been too corporate for a long time.

    Keep in mind that B&J is quintessentially (at this juncture anyway) quintessentially Vermont.
    I went to the original factory in Vermont prior to UniLever take over. It was a nice afternoon out.

    But UniLever owned companies taking ethical stands over channels that "spread hate" (which in GB News case is BS, its best described at the moment as amateur hour moan-athons)....not sure they have a leg to stand on over some of the dodgy operational practices, clamp down on striking union workers, and eco disasters....
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I'm shocked if the Lib Dems have pulled it off.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cookie said:

    C&A live blog - Candidates gather to assess the validity of any spoilt ballot papers received tonight

    I love the fact that we are getting excited commentary from an American. You're very welcome to join in our obsession with the minutiae of British Politics, of course, and the perspectives from elsewhere arealways interesting. But I bet there aren't many Americans eagerly awaiting the result of a by-election in Buckinghamshire.
    Reckon you are right about that! But a good UK by-election is truly an art form - Brit kabuki.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,391
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    LDs just matched @ 2/1

    Edit now evens

    Someone’s confident

    Or somebody is ramping the market, hoping people will think someone knows something.

    One of the two.
    Very different seats of course, but if the Tories are struggling in C&A, then the 3.5 available at Ladbrokes for Labour to win B&S looks attractive. (Better odds may be available elsewhere - I just cite this as an indication)
    Indeed. There is a proportion who simply love to vote for the winners. To prove themselves right. I don't get it at all But they do exist. Even to false recall.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    C&A live blog, Rory Butler - THIS JUST IN! “Very close to a result”, says @BucksCouncil source.
  • Brom said:

    Not sure what to make of the money moves in this instance. There’s less than 50k in total on the Lib Dems

    For the love of God, learn what a betting exchange is. Every bet on an outcome is matched by a bet against it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Does sound like the surprising Lib Dem win.

    With that my focus turns to England Scotland!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,737
    Never mind all that - who's coming third?!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Not sure what to make of the money moves in this instance. There’s less than 50k in total on the Lib Dems

    For the love of God, learn what a betting exchange is. Every bet on an outcome is matched by a bet against it.
    Oh I do, I spend a fortune on betfair. It’s still a surprisingly low figure.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Weird betting market
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796
    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Basically illiquid as most sensible people are asleep.
    Con 1.8
    LD 1.2
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Massively. But I think the result is decided so we can sleep now.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Conservative candidate Fleet has arrived at C&A count
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    There's a lot of arb opportunity is this market.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,098
    Put on GB news they're covering some strawberries at Wimbledon issue ?!?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Cookie said:

    Never mind all that - who's coming third?!

    If the LDs win, I suspect that Con + Reform will be comfortably more than their total.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796

    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Basically illiquid as most sensible people are asleep.
    Con 1.8
    LD 1.2
    Con 3
    LD 1.02

    They think it's all over. Last chance to hedge!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046
    Arb opportunity has gone away :disappointed:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796

    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Basically illiquid as most sensible people are asleep.
    Con 1.8
    LD 1.2
    Con 3
    LD 1.02

    They think it's all over. Last chance to hedge!
    LD bouncing between 1.02 and 1.2.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,046

    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Basically illiquid as most sensible people are asleep.
    Con 1.8
    LD 1.2
    Con 3
    LD 1.02

    They think it's all over. Last chance to hedge!
    Given you can lay Con at 9.8, why would anyone back the LDs at 1.05/6?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,796
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Weird betting market

    Basically illiquid as most sensible people are asleep.
    Con 1.8
    LD 1.2
    Con 3
    LD 1.02

    They think it's all over. Last chance to hedge!
    Given you can lay Con at 9.8, why would anyone back the LDs at 1.05/6?
    You can't any more. Con 10 to back, 1000 to lay.
This discussion has been closed.