C&A live blog, Bucks Free Press - A Liberal Democrat source said the Chesham and Amersham by-election is “looking very promising” for the party’s candidate Sarah Green.
The seat has been a Tory stronghold since its creation in 1974 and in 2019 the Conservatives took more than half the vote.
As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.
And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.
So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.
This is actually the first time I've watched Betfair odds in the run up to an event like this. There are people clearly placing what I consider wild sums on no more information than they had an hour ago bar the odd rumour. Presumably a lot of this is people covering and shuffling positions. But it's still surprising.
As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.
And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.
So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.
This is actually the first time I've watched Betfair odds in the run up to an event like this. There are people clearly placing what I consider wild sums on no more information than they had an hour ago bar the odd rumour. Presumably a lot of this is people covering and shuffling positions. But it's still surprising.
There was a lot of opportunity for a bot to play with the bet / lay prices, given that a Cons lay is functionally a LD bet. And there were some genuine arb opps today.
If LDs have won, what are we ascribing it to? HS2? Delay in re-opening? This week's Cummings revelations?
None of those. It is the betrayal by the Top Tories - and their failure to take any notice of what local people think. "Take back control"...? But we want to take back control ourselves - not to give all powers to a centralised dictatorship.
If LDs have won, what are we ascribing it to? HS2? Delay in re-opening? This week's Cummings revelations?
I think that support for further is broad but shallow. While opposition is narrow but deep.
Those who want to see restrictions lifted are more motivated to go out and vote, and the LDs carefully positioned themselves (Demand Better) to benefit from that. Plus a bit of HS2 and the local hospital
BBC, Sky and GB News all just showing recorded programming.
Nobody reporting live.
This has become the incredible disappointing 'norm' in recent by-elections, what on earth is the point of 24 hour rolling news stations in the UK if they don't even bother to cover this live?
Not sure what to say about B&S now. Clearly Con voters not that keen to vote Con. But not obvious that Labour are ready to take advantage. Still, I'm on Lab at about 3, I think. I'm not inclined to top up.
I was in C and A last week. There was a huge effort by the Lib Dem team both local and national. My feeling was that we would win by 3000. But people like to be on the winning team.
I thought the LDs had a good chance. But I thought that whatever the result was, it'd be pretty close. The LDs got more than 3 votes for every 2 Conservative votes. That's a landslide.
But the Conservatives took the seat for granted, assumed that people who had voted Conservative before would continue to do so, and seemed to think that they could get away with murder (well, cronyism, corruption, incompetence...) The new scheme for planning was just the last straw. Feedback suggested there was a strong mood in favour of sending a warning to the government.
And so the next question is - how much longer will Johnson last?
I've had the vaccine. I just respect peoples reasons for not having it.
@Anabobazina By all means be upset by what I am saying. I just find it annoying that there is this immense social pressure to get vaccinated. It comes across as a bit irrational and wholly at odds with a liberal society with free debate. This should be a personal choice and this should be respected. The more compulsion that is put on people the more conspiracy theories and opposition is likely to expand. It seems like another road to biosurveillance hell.
The best argument is that vaccination is not perfect but it is the best way of controlling the virus on the known scientific evidence, accepting that it poses some risks in itself but these are less than the virus.
Comments
And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.
So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.
The seat has been a Tory stronghold since its creation in 1974 and in 2019 the Conservatives took more than half the vote.
Pft. Note to self
There are people clearly placing what I consider wild sums on no more information than they had an hour ago bar the odd rumour.
Presumably a lot of this is people covering and shuffling positions. But it's still surprising.
Nobody reporting live.
"Result imminent"
Surely can’t be wrong
Con 13,489
Green 1,480
Lab 622
Reform 414
Those who want to see restrictions lifted are more motivated to go out and vote, and the LDs carefully positioned themselves (Demand Better) to benefit from that. Plus a bit of HS2 and the local hospital
Anyway, I completely misread c&a.
Stonking majority for the LDs
Lab 4th
Green more than double Lab!!!
Conservative 1.34
Labour 3.3
Workers Party of George Galloway 80
Green - 1,480
Rejoin EU - 101
Conservative - 13,489
Lib Dems - 21,517
Breakthrough - 197
Freedom Alliance - 134
Labour - 622
Reform UK - 414
The LDs winning is not a shock.
The scale of their victory, on the other hand, is utterly astonishing.
They got more than 50% more votes than the Conservative Party. That's staggering.
Conservative voters stayed home, and Labour voters - on mass - tactically voted LibDem.
Hopefully wake call to the conservatives
2017 Labour were second on 11,374.
2019 Labour came third on 7,166.
Keir Starmer!
Still, I'm on Lab at about 3, I think. I'm not inclined to top up.
The LDs got more than 3 votes for every 2 Conservative votes. That's a landslide.
Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.
Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.
And so the next question is - how much longer will Johnson last?
The best argument is that vaccination is not perfect but it is the best way of controlling the virus on the known scientific evidence, accepting that it poses some risks in itself but these are less than the virus.
Faute d'autre elements la demande a) de l'UE est non fondée et elle en sera déboutée.
I read this as "In the absence of other issue, the EU's complaint a) is unfounded and will be [denied?]