On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
What is the median income where you live, Foxy, and would you say in Leics you would be deemed "rich" or "not rich"?
Oh, I am in the top 1% of national income, so undeniably rich.
I mean the super-rich, citizens of nowhere, tax exiles, non-doms and the like. Those of us on PAYE have to cough up for them.
"For rich people tax is voluntary" is what you said.
And then you proceeded to identify yourself as rich and corrected your earlier assertion.
As for the "super rich", who or whatever they are, well yes sure, but a subset so small surely you're not going to hang a political narrative on them.
We are an independent state that should set our own policy.
We are (or were) a trading Nation that must comply with International standards
Sure. Doesn’t mean we have dynamic alignment.
But we HAVE dynamic alignment. Our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards. Whats more the government insist our standards will only ever increase and not decrease. So we will stay dynamically aligned.
A smart government with a brain would recognise the practicalities and engage in realpolitik. Take all the headlines and plaudits, have a smooth Brexit that works straight out the box for even more plaudits, Brexit becomes a settled issue, move on.
At some point down the line we would have to deal with an alignment issue but that becomes someone else's problem. Instead we literally demanded 3rd country status for the UK and then immediately start screaming about how unfair the 3rd party rules are.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
The UK "reneging on the deal" is an EU narrative that needs to be rejected. That the brown-nose EU media are spinning it means nothing. That there are a row of EU Commissioners demanding "implement *this* bit and *this* bit", whilst making threats - is an attempt to impose their favoured interpretation, and fraudulent.
As Max pointed out several times, the Trusted Trader Scheme has somehow vanished into a black hole in Brussels. Let them implement *that*, many problems will be solved.
The NIP includes flexibility, which we need to use appropriately and stand by.
Voluntary inserting the UK's neck under UVDL's Birkenstock is entirely the wrong thing to do.
When the proposals about borders were made way back when, Barnier et al were fully aware that it would not be acceptable in NI, and therefore could not stand. And that the negotiation process would be continuous - that is the nature of dealing with the EU. It is, so let's get on with it.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
What is the median income where you live, Foxy, and would you say in Leics you would be deemed "rich" or "not rich"?
Oh, I am in the top 1% of national income, so undeniably rich.
I mean the super-rich, citizens of nowhere, tax exiles, non-doms and the like. Those of us on PAYE have to cough up for them.
"For rich people tax is voluntary" is what you said.
And then you proceeded to identify yourself as rich and corrected your earlier assertion.
As for the "super rich", who or whatever they are, well yes sure, but a subset so small surely you're not going to hang a political narrative on them.
Yes, generally people use the word "rich" to mean people richer than themselves, and I slip into that myself.
Objectively, I am of course rich, by any reasonable measure.
On the issue of other parts of europe opening up more than us despite the vaccine situation: I would be interested to know what these countries' versions of SAGE are telling their ministers?
Are they being presented with models as has happened here which show that even without the Delta variant there will be more people in hospital in July than in Jan?
The Telegraph this morning has a piece looking at where we are and where UCL and Warwick predicted we would be.
Note that those attacking May’s speech yesterday did so on the basis that it was sour grapes, rather than addressing the argument. @ping this morning is a honourable exception.
Tories have become lazy with their ‘we won, so suck it up’ attitude.
Also gloating about things too early and then being silent when they don't happen. Suddenly all very quiet on the we will open up this summer whilst the rest of Europe is in lockdown, as the reverse looks more likely.
The government should get a lot of credit if they do stand up to the zero covid arguments, and latitude if that goes wrong, but that does not seem to be what they are briefing the media. Expect a few restrictions to be eased, most to remain in place and then another review in 3-5 weeks. The problem is whatever risks we see now, are unlikely to not still be risks in 3-5 weeks time.
We do seem to have blown many advantages that could have arisen from the good rollout, which is unfortunate.
It is not that we have blown them, or anything unfortunate, it is we have chosen not to use them as we are risk averse.
We are an independent state that should set our own policy.
We are (or were) a trading Nation that must comply with International standards
Sure. Doesn’t mean we have dynamic alignment.
But we HAVE dynamic alignment. Our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards. Whats more the government insist our standards will only ever increase and not decrease. So we will stay dynamically aligned.
A smart government with a brain would recognise the practicalities and engage in realpolitik. Take all the headlines and plaudits, have a smooth Brexit that works straight out the box for even more plaudits, Brexit becomes a settled issue, move on.
At some point down the line we would have to deal with an alignment issue but that becomes someone else's problem. Instead we literally demanded 3rd country status for the UK and then immediately start screaming about how unfair the 3rd party rules are.
Yes, the absurdity of the current situation is that we are abiding by SM rules anyway!.
The SM regulations are by and large very reasonable, well drafted and popular. People don't want substandard food.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
EDIT: I now see the Independent:
"Boris Johnson is determined to lift the 30-person limit on weddings on 21 June, even if other lockdown restrictions remain in place, according to reports.
While the prime minister may decide to keep social distancing precautions remain in place, unlimited guest lists are set to be permitted, although wedding guests will still be required to wear masks when not eating and drinking, according to The Times"
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
What is the median income where you live, Foxy, and would you say in Leics you would be deemed "rich" or "not rich"?
Oh, I am in the top 1% of national income, so undeniably rich.
I mean the super-rich, citizens of nowhere, tax exiles, non-doms and the like. Those of us on PAYE have to cough up for them.
"For rich people tax is voluntary" is what you said.
And then you proceeded to identify yourself as rich and corrected your earlier assertion.
As for the "super rich", who or whatever they are, well yes sure, but a subset so small surely you're not going to hang a political narrative on them.
Yes, generally people use the word "rich" to mean people richer than themselves, and I slip into that myself.
Objectively, I am of course rich, by any reasonable measure.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
The UK "reneging on the deal" is an EU narrative that needs to be rejected. That the brown-nose EU media are spinning it means nothing. That there are a row of EU Commissioners demanding "implement *this* bit and *this* bit", whilst making threats - is an attempt to impose their favoured interpretation, and fraudulent.
As Max pointed out several times, the Trusted Trader Scheme has somehow vanished into a black hole in Brussels. Let them implement *that*, many problems will be solved.
The NIP includes flexibility, which we need to use appropriately and stand by.
Voluntary inserting the UK's neck under UVDL's Birkenstock is entirely the wrong thing to do.
There is a bit of a clue in the fact that the media are full of briefings (presumably from within the EU) about “trade wars” etc.
As I understand it the NI protocol contains both the power to act unilaterally if its measures are acting as a disruption to trade/causing difficulties in NI, and legal dispute resolution mechanisms to follow if there is disagreement about how one party is implementing the agreement (including taking any unilateral action as above).
Why are the EU not pursuing the dispute resolution mechanisms in the agreement?
Note that those attacking May’s speech yesterday did so on the basis that it was sour grapes, rather than addressing the argument. @ping this morning is a honourable exception.
Tories have become lazy with their ‘we won, so suck it up’ attitude.
Also gloating about things too early and then being silent when they don't happen. Suddenly all very quiet on the we will open up this summer whilst the rest of Europe is in lockdown, as the reverse looks more likely.
The government should get a lot of credit if they do stand up to the zero covid arguments, and latitude if that goes wrong, but that does not seem to be what they are briefing the media. Expect a few restrictions to be eased, most to remain in place and then another review in 3-5 weeks. The problem is whatever risks we see now, are unlikely to not still be risks in 3-5 weeks time.
We do seem to have blown many advantages that could have arisen from the good rollout, which is unfortunate.
It is not that we have blown them, or anything unfortunate, it is we have chosen not to use them as we are risk averse.
Today's GDP figures are very good and basically confirm that were easing to go ahead on 21 June, we would return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year at the latest.
There's still potential gains lost e.g. hospital waiting times, but I don't think they should be exaggerated.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
But, we've learned the EU learn nothing and forget nothing so Biden will have to tell it to them straight.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
The UK "reneging on the deal" is an EU narrative that needs to be rejected.
So when UK ministers threaten to invoke clauses to negate the deal that is actually an EU narrative?
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
To play devil's advocate, presumably those on SAGE would say that europe will be hit by Delta shortly and all those unvaccinated will be heading to hospital?
I'll answer Tezzie's question: The restrictions on travel were far too lax a year ago and still aren't sufficient now.
Meanwhile I see that a member of SAGE has suggested that we should carry on wearing masks for ever.
I don't say this lightly as I think the government should be getting all kinds of advice whether I agree with it or not, and even whether I think it unreasonable or not, but I do think that (including social distancing forever as well) is so unreasonable she should be sacked.
By early July SAGE will be floating worries about the return to school and uni in september.
Chances are there will be a new variant of concern. There are millions of mutations.
And repeat...
Yes, this is the major problem. If not now, when?
What does 4 weeks actually get us?
People support harsh measures, but as topping notes if everyone we compare to is opening up the narrative can shift. It's what many thought would happen on the continent.
On the issue of other parts of europe opening up more than us despite the vaccine situation: I would be interested to know what these countries' versions of SAGE are telling their ministers?
Are they being presented with models as has happened here which show that even without the Delta variant there will be more people in hospital in July than in Jan?
The Telegraph this morning has a piece looking at where we are and where UCL and Warwick predicted we would be.
A good point.
Perhaps a key difference is that other countries haven't fetishised their health services into a pseudo national religion.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
Not only do I agree with those arguing for opening up now, and that there'll always be a new variant, I'd add that if this is delayed for months (not impossible given the dithering imbecile in charge) we'll be heading towards winter when things naturally ramp up.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
The Tories forming their own Opposition is rather a theme of recent years. Theresa May managed to do it when she didn't even have a majority to carve it out of.
The uselessness of those who should be doing the job - so the Tories don't have to - is another theme....
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
And the rest of the world’s. Or are you suggesting there is something specifically wrong with our’s?
If this government is dumb enough to keep the travel restrictions then I am tempted to say “fuck it” and just go ahead and fuck off on a nice long summer holiday. I have had the bug and I am double jabbed, I am now retired so I don’t need to come back any time soon.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
To play devil's advocate, presumably those on SAGE would say that europe will be hit by Delta shortly and all those unvaccinated will be heading to hospital?
Yep I'm sure that's what they would say. As might they then say beware of the Vanuatu Variant (h/t cocky?), etc
But yes the "future threat" is one that can't be disproved. Sadly, it will persist always because by definition it is not happening now.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
EDIT: I now see the Independent:
"Boris Johnson is determined to lift the 30-person limit on weddings on 21 June, even if other lockdown restrictions remain in place, according to reports.
While the prime minister may decide to keep social distancing precautions remain in place, unlimited guest lists are set to be permitted, although wedding guests will still be required to wear masks when not eating and drinking, according to The Times"
It's the hope that gets you
As if the masks thing at weddings is enforceable! Just have a glass in your hand FFS. My wife was furious when she read that: “who would want people in masks at their wedding? And can we dance?”
The government needs to lift the wedding rules on 21 June and stop already with the petty little caveats. Enough.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
That depends if the things you want to do are open.
If they are and if its 'people like them' being inconvenienced by other things being closed then people tend to be happy.
The Tories forming their own Opposition is rather a theme of recent years. Theresa May managed to do it when she didn't even have a majority to carve it out of.
The uselessness of those who should be doing the job - so the Tories don't have to - is another theme....
Theresa is proving to be a royal pain in the ass, that's for sure. One view would be that one of the top 2 most useless PMs since at least 1970 really should be a bit more humble about her contributions but that was never really her style.
I'll answer Tezzie's question: The restrictions on travel were far too lax a year ago and still aren't sufficient now.
Meanwhile I see that a member of SAGE has suggested that we should carry on wearing masks for ever.
Indeed, but the person in question is also on indie SAGE so she's clearly all over the place.
She also, I believe, is a “behavioural scientist” which surely means she has no expertise on future direction of the epidemic, and masks impact on it, whatsoever...
Why is Boris Johnson trying to rubbish and change a deal which he signed and said was a great deal? We signed it, why can't we just accept something we've signed up to?
With regards vaccines, I am not surprised that the Government are now starting to squander the good progress they had made, indeed probably the only very competent thing they did throughout the entire pandemic. BoJo and the current Government are dreadful - but the issue for the left is that at the moment we are still seen as worse.
Travel bans do not affect me personally but there is a sense, partly articulated by Theresa May, that the government is jerking people around rather than acting in a predictable manner.
Exactly. I think the government is trying to make people spend their cash in the UK but haven't got the guts to be upfront about it.
I would be at far greater risk spending the weekend in a pub in Bolton than I would in a cottage in Normandy but the government is telling me the former is perfectly OK but I can't do the latter.
I can't spend a fortnight in a cottage in rural France but thousands of people were allowed to flock back from India for 3 weeks when we already knew that the Indian variant was rampant,
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
The Tories forming their own Opposition is rather a theme of recent years. Theresa May managed to do it when she didn't even have a majority to carve it out of.
The uselessness of those who should be doing the job - so the Tories don't have to - is another theme....
Theresa is proving to be a royal pain in the ass, that's for sure. One view would be that one of the top 2 most useless PMs since at least 1970 really should be a bit more humble about her contributions but that was never really her style.
This is absolutely the last thing the tories want. They are going to be fighting the next GE on a Labour Will Betray Brexit platform so they cannot let it recede in the national consciousness.
Shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said it was "highly unlikely" the full relaxation of coronavirus restrictions will go ahead later this month.
(Telegraph blog)
And she presumably gave her source for this, or was it personal belief? ( not that I think she’s wrong - when their are briefings that the Chancellor is prepared to accept delay there’s no chance).
However there was some ridiculous line this morning that ministers were moving towards favouring delay of 4 weeks instead of two to give businesses “certainty”. Because if they delayed by only two they might then have to change their mind and this would cause “additional disruption”. This makes no sense whatsoever. If there can be a change of course in two weeks there can be a change of course after four. There just needs to be a ripping of the band aid.
As the Indian variant spreads there will be areas almost completely unaffected now which will start to show “worrying signs” in a few weeks. There needs to be more trust in the evidence of places like Bolton, and not overreliance on models that seem determined to ignore real world evidence.
A Lbb Dem C&A win in the early hours of next Friday is what is required to get the country moving. BoJo has to be bought down from his Hartlepool high.
Note that those attacking May’s speech yesterday did so on the basis that it was sour grapes, rather than addressing the argument. @ping this morning is a honourable exception.
Tories have become lazy with their ‘we won, so suck it up’ attitude.
Also gloating about things too early and then being silent when they don't happen. Suddenly all very quiet on the we will open up this summer whilst the rest of Europe is in lockdown, as the reverse looks more likely.
The government should get a lot of credit if they do stand up to the zero covid arguments, and latitude if that goes wrong, but that does not seem to be what they are briefing the media. Expect a few restrictions to be eased, most to remain in place and then another review in 3-5 weeks. The problem is whatever risks we see now, are unlikely to not still be risks in 3-5 weeks time.
We do seem to have blown many advantages that could have arisen from the good rollout, which is unfortunate.
It is not that we have blown them, or anything unfortunate, it is we have chosen not to use them as we are risk averse.
Two decisions happened in the past, which have consequences now.
One was the amount of Pfizer vaccine bought. We ordered a decent slug last year, but didn't boost the order when it became clear that enormous amounts were going to be available. At that point, it didn't seem necessary, but now it is. Odd, when the messaging at the time was "Invest loads in every good option, because you can't have too many vaccines too soon. Clever Britain worked that out, foolish Europe didn't."
The other was staying open to India too long, so that Delta has seeded in a hard-to-manage way.
Each of those decisions has taken a fair bite out of the UK's initial lead on exiting the pandemic. People flagged the second, but did anyone notice the first at the time?
Tricky thing government. Lots of moving parts, and the decisive bits can bubble out of nowhere.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
I think abiding by SM rules until an agreement supersedes it would not be unpopular. Indeed I think we should emulate the animal welfare rules that the EU has just agreed for example.
It need nor be permanent, just as an interim measure.
No agreement will ever supersede it if the EU hold us over the barrel by agreeing to "temporarily" agree to their terms unless or until the EU agrees otherwise. If an alternative agreement is possible, eg Trusted Trader schemes then both parties need to negotiate and compromise now.
Besides the UK is already aligned with those rules so the Joint Committee can easily if the EU compromises recognise we're aligned even without a commitment to stay aligned, then the Joint Committee could change that if we diverge in the future.
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
A number of figures in hospitality and entertainment e.g. Luke Johnson have said they are fully opening on 21st come what may.
This is absolutely the last thing the tories want. They are going to be fighting the next GE on a Labour Will Betray Brexit platform so they cannot let it recede in the national consciousness.
And, Labour will fall straight into that trap.
You can't blame the Tories for being better at politics. That's the game.
This is absolutely the last thing the tories want. They are going to be fighting the next GE on a Labour Will Betray Brexit platform so they cannot let it recede in the national consciousness.
And, Labour will fall straight into that trap.
You can't blame the Tories for being better at politics. That's the game.
Shame for those of us who couldnt care less whatever rosette is in number 10 but want good government, eh?
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
And the rest of the world’s. Or are you suggesting there is something specifically wrong with our’s?
The claim is that ours is World beating.
If it doesn't let us travel, and doesn't protect us, what exactly does it beat?
I'll just add in the rest of the conversation...
Who cares about stupid slogans? What matters is that they are virus beating. YOU said "If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
Well, the chances of that wave being specific to the UK are slim. Sure, our large sub-continent population combined with a government unwilling to shut the borders means it might hit us first, but if we're fucked, then so's the rest of Europe. Not that that would be of any consolation.
Ultimately, if the government delays, it needs to be more about vaccines than cases. They need to tell us the number of first/second doses (and possibly weeks after that point) at which they think we can let it go.
A Lbb Dem C&A win in the early hours of next Friday is what is required to get the country moving. BoJo has to be bought down from his Hartlepool high.
Well it certainly will not be the thing to get the country building.
On the issue of other parts of europe opening up more than us despite the vaccine situation: I would be interested to know what these countries' versions of SAGE are telling their ministers?
Are they being presented with models as has happened here which show that even without the Delta variant there will be more people in hospital in July than in Jan?
The Telegraph this morning has a piece looking at where we are and where UCL and Warwick predicted we would be.
A good point.
Perhaps a key difference is that other countries haven't fetishised their health services into a pseudo national religion.
I'm convinced such is more problematic than is generally considered. It's not harmless, it prevents sensible discussion and decisions.
Yes decisions happen eventually, but shaped by that weird context.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
Many people would, sadly, yes. They'd be wearing some funny-coloured glasses as they pressed their noses against the window looking at "abroad". A couple of stories about taxpayers' money being spent vaccinating refugees generously picked up by British vessels in French waters (shocker) and brought to live the life of Riley in Britain, bingeing on watching TV on extra big sets, all supplied gratis, would soon sort them out. How many in Britain know that personal indebtedness and house prices are far higher in Britain than on the continent, comparing like with like? How many even care when they're told?
I hear many say "the NHS is the best health system in the world". When I ask them why they think there are waiting lists and I tell them most other countries in most circumstances don't have them, any more than car tyre and exhaust garages tend to have them, they go blank. A case of in one ear and straight out the other.
As for the SMEs dependent on international travel, Johnson did say "f*** business".
If this government is dumb enough to keep the travel restrictions then I am tempted to say “fuck it” and just go ahead and fuck off on a nice long summer holiday. I have had the bug and I am double jabbed, I am now retired so I don’t need to come back any time soon.
The Hull - Rotterdam crossing works (if you're an EU citizen) so that's my route. Then stealth mode through Belgium and France. There's no mandatory quarantine in the Netherlands if you're coming from the UK.
By early July SAGE will be floating worries about the return to school and uni in september.
Chances are there will be a new variant of concern. There are millions of mutations.
And repeat...
Yes, this is the major problem. If not now, when?
What does 4 weeks actually get us?
People support harsh measures, but as topping notes if everyone we compare to is opening up the narrative can shift. It's what many thought would happen on the continent.
At the current pace of vaccination, July 21st would get us to 90% of adults first vaccinated, and 82% second vaccinated.
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
A number of figures in hospitality and entertainment e.g. Luke Johnson have said they are fully opening on 21st come what may.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
Total bollocks, just as it always was.
The EU can fudge it and agree to Trusted Trader schemes etc - but only if they're prepared to compromise.
Or if they refuse to compromise and we refuse a border in the Irish Sea then they can choose to put a border on Ireland.
Or if they refuse to compromise, we refuse a border in the Irish Sea, they refuse to put a border on Ireland then they can put a border between Ireland and the rest of the Single Market.
Or if they refuse to compromise, we refuse a border in the Irish Sea, they refuse to put a border on Ireland, and they refuse to put a border between Ireland and the rest of the Single Market then there won't be a border anywhere and the whole problem goes away.
Either way, we don't need to concede. Just as we never did, so long as we were prepared to put the ball in their court. Because they're better off compromising than they are putting a border up themselves or having No Deal.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
EDIT: I now see the Independent:
"Boris Johnson is determined to lift the 30-person limit on weddings on 21 June, even if other lockdown restrictions remain in place, according to reports.
While the prime minister may decide to keep social distancing precautions remain in place, unlimited guest lists are set to be permitted, although wedding guests will still be required to wear masks when not eating and drinking, according to The Times"
It's the hope that gets you
As if the masks thing at weddings is enforceable! Just have a glass in your hand FFS. My wife was furious when she read that: “who would want people in masks at their wedding? And can we dance?”
The government needs to lift the wedding rules on 21 June and stop already with the petty little caveats. Enough.
My brother and SIL wouldn't mind.
Like most people they have a short ceremony, followed by a reception; in their case at the same venue.
Having guests wear masks at the ceremony is not a big deal. For the rest of the evening will be spent with a glass in hand (alcoholic or not)
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
May seems to typify the establishment view that the proles should be restricted so that international travel is unrestricted ie Cumbria can be sacrificed to protect Heathrow.
We are an independent state that should set our own policy.
We are (or were) a trading Nation that must comply with International standards
Sure. Doesn’t mean we have dynamic alignment.
But we HAVE dynamic alignment. Our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards. Whats more the government insist our standards will only ever increase and not decrease. So we will stay dynamically aligned.
A smart government with a brain would recognise the practicalities and engage in realpolitik. Take all the headlines and plaudits, have a smooth Brexit that works straight out the box for even more plaudits, Brexit becomes a settled issue, move on.
At some point down the line we would have to deal with an alignment issue but that becomes someone else's problem. Instead we literally demanded 3rd country status for the UK and then immediately start screaming about how unfair the 3rd party rules are.
Yes, the absurdity of the current situation is that we are abiding by SM rules anyway!.
The SM regulations are by and large very reasonable, well drafted and popular. People don't want substandard food.
If we're abiding by the rules anyway then the Joint Committee can recognise that as it stands and abolish any checks since we're abiding by the rules. That's the Joint Committee's job.
So get the Joint Committee to do its job. Don't expect the UK to commit to dynamic alignment.
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
A number of figures in hospitality and entertainment e.g. Luke Johnson have said they are fully opening on 21st come what may.
Politics could get really interesting shortly.
Plod will come, and they will stay shut.....
Needn't even be plod for the larger operators. Their accountant will show them the terms in their insurance.
On the issue of other parts of europe opening up more than us despite the vaccine situation: I would be interested to know what these countries' versions of SAGE are telling their ministers?
Are they being presented with models as has happened here which show that even without the Delta variant there will be more people in hospital in July than in Jan?
The Telegraph this morning has a piece looking at where we are and where UCL and Warwick predicted we would be.
A good point.
Perhaps a key difference is that other countries haven't fetishised their health services into a pseudo national religion.
I'm convinced such is more problematic than is generally considered. It's not harmless, it prevents sensible discussion and decisions.
Yes decisions happen eventually, but shaped by that weird context.
I think it’s also the centralisation/single source of decision making. It means there are no points of comparison/ability for individual regions to do their own thing which kicks off other areas to follow if they seem to work.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
Shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said it was "highly unlikely" the full relaxation of coronavirus restrictions will go ahead later this month.
(Telegraph blog)
Is that said with regret/anger/outrage - or in being four-square behind whatever the Government does?
I have no idea what Labour or the LibDems would do in the alternative. It's why, politically, the Government won't take much of a hit.
It would be great if the Lib Dems could be standing up for liberalism.
Instead they seem to want to stand up for the illiberal Green Belt and telling people they can't build on their own land and want to say nothing at all about possibly the greatest peacetime restriction on civil liberties this country has seen in the modern era all while the NHS is at zero risk of imminent collapse.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
The political issue Johnson is facing (let's assume he is indifferent to more/fewer deaths) is that if he delays by too much longer a "well everyone else is opening up" narrative will emerge. Then he gives up the only thing that has kept him ahead of the game, polls- and perception-wise: that we have a world beating vaccine program.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
That depends if the things you want to do are open.
If they are and if its 'people like them' being inconvenienced by other things being closed then people tend to be happy.
That is also true. Like @Foxy's rich people are those richer than me, onerous restrictions are the ones which prevent me doing what I want to do while the restrictions that prevent what other people want to do are just fine.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
I would go with your second. I know someone who is clinically vulnerable, who keeps rebooking their second jab, because they have a "busy schedule" (mostly wasting time).
The GPs in the area are vaccinating steadily. The 2 local mass vaccination centre(s) are 30 min *walk*. Both are next to huge carparks. And served by public transport (London).
From Monday we drop mask usage in Denmark except for public transport. This is despite our vaccination problems (continuous delays due to the excessive approach to risk) - my wife got the J+J vaccine via the "you can have this crap vaccine that might KILL YOU but it's also a great vaccine" system we have.
I'll keep wearing a mask in shops as we don't have enough double jabbed people yet but the direction of travel is clear - Danmarks genåbning er på vej.
And my brother and future sister in law would miss out on their wedding, potentially by two days.
EDIT: I now see the Independent:
"Boris Johnson is determined to lift the 30-person limit on weddings on 21 June, even if other lockdown restrictions remain in place, according to reports.
While the prime minister may decide to keep social distancing precautions remain in place, unlimited guest lists are set to be permitted, although wedding guests will still be required to wear masks when not eating and drinking, according to The Times"
It's the hope that gets you
As if the masks thing at weddings is enforceable! Just have a glass in your hand FFS. My wife was furious when she read that: “who would want people in masks at their wedding? And can we dance?”
The government needs to lift the wedding rules on 21 June and stop already with the petty little caveats. Enough.
My brother and SIL wouldn't mind.
Like most people they have a short ceremony, followed by a reception; in their case at the same venue.
Having guests wear masks at the ceremony is not a big deal. For the rest of the evening will be spent with a glass in hand (alcoholic or not)
Dancing?
In any case, the Times today again says weddings limit will be lifted come what may on 21 June. Which is good news.
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
A number of figures in hospitality and entertainment e.g. Luke Johnson have said they are fully opening on 21st come what may.
A Lbb Dem C&A win in the early hours of next Friday is what is required to get the country moving. BoJo has to be bought down from his Hartlepool high.
I asked Rochdale but you might know - are the Lib Dems campaigning in C&A on liberalism and getting the country moving?
Or are they campaigning on illiberal ossification of housebuilding instead?
From Monday we drop mask usage in Denmark except for public transport. This is despite our vaccination problems (continuous delays due to the excessive approach to risk) - my wife got the J+J vaccine via the "you can have this crap vaccine that might KILL YOU but it's also a great vaccine" system we have.
I'll keep wearing a mask in shops as we don't have enough double jabbed people yet but the direction of travel is clear - Danmarks genåbning er på vej.
Good luck to Denmark, hope it goes exceedingly well and the rest of Europe including the UK follows in.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
I would go with your second. I know someone who is clinically vulnerable, who keeps rebooking their second jab, because they have a "busy schedule" (mostly wasting time).
The GPs in the area are vaccinating steadily. The 2 local mass vaccination centre(s) are 30 min *walk*. Both are next to huge carparks. And served by public transport (London).
I had my second jab yesterday with zero side effects (I had a strong reaction to the first one).
It seems that this is normal with AZ - nobody I have spoken to has had any side effects on Jab 2.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
I would go with your second. I know someone who is clinically vulnerable, who keeps rebooking their second jab, because they have a "busy schedule" (mostly wasting time).
The GPs in the area are vaccinating steadily. The 2 local mass vaccination centre(s) are 30 min *walk*. Both are next to huge carparks. And served by public transport (London).
I had my second jab yesterday with zero side effects (I had a strong reaction to the first one).
It seems that this is normal with AZ - nobody I have spoken to has had any side effects on Jab 2.
If this government is dumb enough to keep the travel restrictions then I am tempted to say “fuck it” and just go ahead and fuck off on a nice long summer holiday. I have had the bug and I am double jabbed, I am now retired so I don’t need to come back any time soon.
The Hull - Rotterdam crossing works (if you're an EU citizen) so that's my route. Then stealth mode through Belgium and France. There's no mandatory quarantine in the Netherlands if you're coming from the UK.
One of the reasons I have kept returning here over the years is there is always someone who knows how to do absolutely anything. Cheers although it will have to wait until after my week in the lakes early next month which I had forgotten about 🤦🏼
By early July SAGE will be floating worries about the return to school and uni in september.
Chances are there will be a new variant of concern. There are millions of mutations.
And repeat...
Yes, this is the major problem. If not now, when?
What does 4 weeks actually get us?
People support harsh measures, but as topping notes if everyone we compare to is opening up the narrative can shift. It's what many thought would happen on the continent.
4 weeks gets us another 12m people with 2 doses.
The safest time to remove restrictions would be once everyone has had 2 doses & 2 weeks for protection to kick in.
We can take more of a risk than that... but the delta variant has significantly increased the costs of removing restrictions too early.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
I would go with your second. I know someone who is clinically vulnerable, who keeps rebooking their second jab, because they have a "busy schedule" (mostly wasting time).
The GPs in the area are vaccinating steadily. The 2 local mass vaccination centre(s) are 30 min *walk*. Both are next to huge carparks. And served by public transport (London).
I had my second jab yesterday with zero side effects (I had a strong reaction to the first one).
It seems that this is normal with AZ - nobody I have spoken to has had any side effects on Jab 2.
After my first AZ had a tough time about 24 hours later. After second nothing except a slight sore throat about three days after which may have been coincidental.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
The anti-vaxxers will probably tell us that a significant proportion die after having the first dose....
I never understood why Bill Gates wants to inject people with a nano technology that allows him to transmit thoughts via 5G directly to their brains and also kill them at the same time.
Leaving aside the content (which I on balance disagree with), I'm struck by how fluent she is - barely glancing at her notes, she flows in a way she never did as PM. If she was a new backbencher she'd be earmarked for promotion...
It's noticeable on my local social media (which is full of Tories) that people are fine with most aspects of the current semi-lockdown except for the confusing travel policy. The amber list baffles everyone and the formal definition as being for emergencies has been totally lost.
A one-month delay to get to 80/60 (1st/2nd) vaccination of adults with some tweaks for weddings etc. seems to me a reasonable line that most people would accept.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
The UK "reneging on the deal" is an EU narrative that needs to be rejected.
So when UK ministers threaten to invoke clauses to negate the deal that is actually an EU narrative?
Invoking clauses within a deal to be used as they are intended to be used is not negating the deal.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
The anti-vaxxers will probably tell us that a significant proportion die after having the first dose....
I never understood why Bill Gates wants to inject people with a nano technology that allows him to transmit thoughts via 5G directly to their brains and also kill them at the same time.
Sigh - that's just wrong. The nanotech is get people to by Windows mobiles, and Zune players. This accidentally kills American Trump supporters as a side effect.
Leaving aside the content (which I on balance disagree with), I'm struck by how fluent she is - barely glancing at her notes, she flows in a way she never did as PM. If she was a new backbencher she'd be earmarked for promotion...
It's noticeable on my local social media (which is full of Tories) that people are fine with most aspects of the current semi-lockdown except for the confusing travel policy. The amber list baffles everyone and the formal definition as being for emergencies has been totally lost.
A one-month delay to get to 80/60 (1st/2nd) vaccination of adults with some tweaks for weddings etc. seems to me a reasonable line that most people would accept.
I would accept a firm one month delay or a firm commitment of open when we reach 80/60 but not a we will judge it again in a months time because there will always be risks and always be further mitigating actions that can be taken. Under those circumstances I think a one month delay is more than likely a 9 month delay in reality.
By early July SAGE will be floating worries about the return to school and uni in september.
Chances are there will be a new variant of concern. There are millions of mutations.
And repeat...
Yes, this is the major problem. If not now, when?
What does 4 weeks actually get us?
People support harsh measures, but as topping notes if everyone we compare to is opening up the narrative can shift. It's what many thought would happen on the continent.
4 weeks gets us another 12m people with 2 doses.
The safest time to remove restrictions would be once everyone has had 2 doses & 2 weeks for protection to kick in.
We can take more of a risk than that... but the delta variant has significantly increased the costs of removing restrictions too early.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
The UK "reneging on the deal" is an EU narrative that needs to be rejected.
So when UK ministers threaten to invoke clauses to negate the deal that is actually an EU narrative?
Invoking clauses within a deal to be used as they are intended to be used is not negating the deal.
Bingo!
If the EU didn't want Article 16 invoking they shouldn't have agreed to Article 16 in the deal. That they did, means its perfectly legitimate to use.
Besides, they literally started it: they've already invoked it themselves.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
The anti-vaxxers will probably tell us that a significant proportion die after having the first dose....
I never understood why Bill Gates wants to inject people with a nano technology that allows him to transmit thoughts via 5G directly to their brains and also kill them at the same time.
To be fair, aiui he doesn't know either, it was just what the aliens asked for in their contract.
Leaving aside the content (which I on balance disagree with), I'm struck by how fluent she is - barely glancing at her notes, she flows in a way she never did as PM. If she was a new backbencher she'd be earmarked for promotion...
It's noticeable on my local social media (which is full of Tories) that people are fine with most aspects of the current semi-lockdown except for the confusing travel policy. The amber list baffles everyone and the formal definition as being for emergencies has been totally lost.
A one-month delay to get to 80/60 (1st/2nd) vaccination of adults with some tweaks for weddings etc. seems to me a reasonable line that most people would accept.
I would accept a firm one month delay or a firm commitment of open when we reach 80/60 but not a we will judge it again in a months time because there will always be risks and always be further mitigating actions that can be taken. Under those circumstances I think a one month delay is more than likely a 9 month delay in reality.
We will be at 80/60 on the 21st of June, at current rates.
A 4 week delay would make that 90/82, at current rates.
Shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said it was "highly unlikely" the full relaxation of coronavirus restrictions will go ahead later this month.
(Telegraph blog)
And she presumably gave her source for this, or was it personal belief? ( not that I think she’s wrong - when their are briefings that the Chancellor is prepared to accept delay there’s no chance).
However there was some ridiculous line this morning that ministers were moving towards favouring delay of 4 weeks instead of two to give businesses “certainty”. Because if they delayed by only two they might then have to change their mind and this would cause “additional disruption”. This makes no sense whatsoever. If there can be a change of course in two weeks there can be a change of course after four. There just needs to be a ripping of the band aid.
As the Indian variant spreads there will be areas almost completely unaffected now which will start to show “worrying signs” in a few weeks. There needs to be more trust in the evidence of places like Bolton, and not overreliance on models that seem determined to ignore real world evidence.
The only certainty that gives businesses is that they will continue to lose money, lose bookings - for instance, Daughter will lose a christening and 60th birthday party celebration - lose turnover, lose existing furlough help - which is due to be reduced in July - and continue to be unprofitable.
TMay's current speeches remind one of what she was up against when Prime Minister. I sometimes felt sorry for her then. Now I can only think how regrettable it is that a man lacking in integrity, honesty and accountability took over from her.
Using the NIMS population estimates, and yesterdays release for England, I get
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The gap between the two doses is curious.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
The anti-vaxxers will probably tell us that a significant proportion die after having the first dose....
I never understood why Bill Gates wants to inject people with a nano technology that allows him to transmit thoughts via 5G directly to their brains and also kill them at the same time.
To be fair, aiui he doesn't know either, it was just what the aliens asked for in their contract.
His wife made him do it. She is our Overlord, hiding in plain sight.
Mike has totally missed the bigger news....Times says delay to Step 4 is looking more like a month delay, in order to get more people (fully) vaccinated.
If only we had a massive supply of vaccines sitting in a warehouse doing nothing.
I think one thing that needs to be examined is, if the government does not deliver on the 21st June, what scale of protests both passive and active may we see? Speaking to a friend who is in the police, they're concerned there may be a number of issues if any delay happens.
The devil may be in the detail. Provided the government does not reimpose any restrictions, any postponement will probably be greeted with a resigned shrug. Weddings are a grey area, since many couples will already have made arrangements on the current timetable, though the mood music has been that, whatever else happens, the weddings rules will still be relaxed.
Totally agree with Mike. And what a great quote this is:
"TMay’s core argument is that the UK, “one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world”, is the nation that is the one that is “most reluctant to give its citizens the freedoms those vaccinations should support”."
Indeed. But it is not just the travel industry she should be speaking up for but all businesses forced to operate at less than half capacity for 16 months now - when they have even been allowed to open. Enough of this.
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
A number of figures in hospitality and entertainment e.g. Luke Johnson have said they are fully opening on 21st come what may.
Politics could get really interesting shortly.
Yes and Andrew Lloyd Webber.
I'd go.
Voluntarily watching an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical demonstrates true dedication to your cause.
Leaving aside the content (which I on balance disagree with), I'm struck by how fluent she is - barely glancing at her notes, she flows in a way she never did as PM. If she was a new backbencher she'd be earmarked for promotion...
It's noticeable on my local social media (which is full of Tories) that people are fine with most aspects of the current semi-lockdown except for the confusing travel policy. The amber list baffles everyone and the formal definition as being for emergencies has been totally lost.
A one-month delay to get to 80/60 (1st/2nd) vaccination of adults with some tweaks for weddings etc. seems to me a reasonable line that most people would accept.
One question is whether a 1 month delay in lifting restrictions is enough?
Arguably we are already going in the wrong direction & so logically may need to reintroduce some restrictions... but interestingly that doesn't seem to be talked about as a potential option. The 17 May opening up was surely a more dramatic increase to R than whatever additional lifting of restrictions will happen later?
I'm hoping that's because there's an obvious reason why it's not needed that I'm missing... and not that people are just unwilling to confront the reality of the situation.
Comments
And then you proceeded to identify yourself as rich and corrected your earlier assertion.
As for the "super rich", who or whatever they are, well yes sure, but a subset so small surely you're not going to hang a political narrative on them.
A smart government with a brain would recognise the practicalities and engage in realpolitik. Take all the headlines and plaudits, have a smooth Brexit that works straight out the box for even more plaudits, Brexit becomes a settled issue, move on.
At some point down the line we would have to deal with an alignment issue but that becomes someone else's problem. Instead we literally demanded 3rd country status for the UK and then immediately start screaming about how unfair the 3rd party rules are.
If I were a pro-EU type I might state my basic strategy of aligning us with the EU as much as possible to narrow the gap and make rejoining easier.
As Max pointed out several times, the Trusted Trader Scheme has somehow vanished into a black hole in Brussels. Let them implement *that*, many problems will be solved.
The NIP includes flexibility, which we need to use appropriately and stand by.
Voluntary inserting the UK's neck under UVDL's Birkenstock is entirely the wrong thing to do.
When the proposals about borders were made way back when, Barnier et al were fully aware that it would not be acceptable in NI, and therefore could not stand. And that the negotiation process would be continuous - that is the nature of dealing with the EU. It is, so let's get on with it.
Objectively, I am of course rich, by any reasonable measure.
Are they being presented with models as has happened here which show that even without the Delta variant there will be more people in hospital in July than in Jan?
The Telegraph this morning has a piece looking at where we are and where UCL and Warwick predicted we would be.
The SM regulations are by and large very reasonable, well drafted and popular. People don't want substandard food.
Rejecting narrative truth is why we are in this mess
EDIT: I now see the Independent:
"Boris Johnson is determined to lift the 30-person limit on weddings on 21 June, even if other lockdown restrictions remain in place, according to reports.
While the prime minister may decide to keep social distancing precautions remain in place, unlimited guest lists are set to be permitted, although wedding guests will still be required to wear masks when not eating and drinking, according to The Times"
It's the hope that gets you
As I understand it the NI protocol contains both the power to act unilaterally if its measures are acting as a disruption to trade/causing difficulties in NI, and legal dispute resolution mechanisms to follow if there is disagreement about how one party is implementing the agreement (including taking any unilateral action as above).
Why are the EU not pursuing the dispute resolution mechanisms in the agreement?
I'll answer Tezzie's question: The restrictions on travel were far too lax a year ago and still aren't sufficient now.
Meanwhile I see that a member of SAGE has suggested that we should carry on wearing masks for ever.
By early July SAGE will be floating worries about the return to school and uni in september.
Chances are there will be a new variant of concern. There are millions of mutations.
And repeat...
There's still potential gains lost e.g. hospital waiting times, but I don't think they should be exaggerated.
Would people accept that we still have a world-beating vaccine program while watching, nose pressed against the window, as the western world opens up without us.
What does 4 weeks actually get us?
People support harsh measures, but as topping notes if everyone we compare to is opening up the narrative can shift. It's what many thought would happen on the continent.
Perhaps a key difference is that other countries haven't fetishised their health services into a pseudo national religion.
The uselessness of those who should be doing the job - so the Tories don't have to - is another theme....
(Telegraph blog)
But yes the "future threat" is one that can't be disproved. Sadly, it will persist always because by definition it is not happening now.
Age Band First Second
Under 30 21.64% 11.96%
30-34 47.06% 16.91%
35-39 60.23% 20.20%
40-44 71.50% 26.61%
45-49 78.66% 36.04%
50-54 84.73% 62.87%
55-59 87.60% 69.82%
60-64 89.80% 81.57%
65-69 91.93% 88.28%
70-74 94.25% 92.21%
75-79 95.26% 93.38%
80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
The government needs to lift the wedding rules on 21 June and stop already with the petty little caveats. Enough.
If they are and if its 'people like them' being inconvenienced by other things being closed then people tend to be happy.
If it doesn't let us travel, and doesn't protect us, what exactly does it beat?
With regards vaccines, I am not surprised that the Government are now starting to squander the good progress they had made, indeed probably the only very competent thing they did throughout the entire pandemic. BoJo and the current Government are dreadful - but the issue for the left is that at the moment we are still seen as worse.
I would be at far greater risk spending the weekend in a pub in Bolton than I would in a cottage in Normandy but the government is telling me the former is perfectly OK but I can't do the latter.
I can't spend a fortnight in a cottage in rural France but thousands of people were allowed to flock back from India for 3 weeks when we already knew that the Indian variant was rampant,
The government is throwing away all the advantages of its vaccination programme. It seems to be adopting a zero-Covid strategy. This is nonsense. There will never be zero-Covid so people will have to live with the risk, just as we do for every other disease.
Keep doing the vaccinations. Increase them. And stop trying to micro-manage people and businesses.
Do people have a bad reaction to the first dose and become afraid of having the second ?
Or is it they can't be bothered to get the second ?
However there was some ridiculous line this morning that ministers were moving towards favouring delay of 4 weeks instead of two to give businesses “certainty”. Because if they delayed by only two they might then have to change their mind and this would cause “additional disruption”. This makes no sense whatsoever. If there can be a change of course in two weeks there can be a change of course after four. There just needs to be a ripping of the band aid.
As the Indian variant spreads there will be areas almost completely unaffected now which will start to show “worrying signs” in a few weeks. There needs to be more trust in the evidence of places like Bolton, and not overreliance on models that seem determined to ignore real world evidence.
One was the amount of Pfizer vaccine bought. We ordered a decent slug last year, but didn't boost the order when it became clear that enormous amounts were going to be available. At that point, it didn't seem necessary, but now it is. Odd, when the messaging at the time was "Invest loads in every good option, because you can't have too many vaccines too soon. Clever Britain worked that out, foolish Europe didn't."
The other was staying open to India too long, so that Delta has seeded in a hard-to-manage way.
Each of those decisions has taken a fair bite out of the UK's initial lead on exiting the pandemic. People flagged the second, but did anyone notice the first at the time?
Tricky thing government. Lots of moving parts, and the decisive bits can bubble out of nowhere.
Besides the UK is already aligned with those rules so the Joint Committee can easily if the EU compromises recognise we're aligned even without a commitment to stay aligned, then the Joint Committee could change that if we diverge in the future.
Politics could get really interesting shortly.
You can't blame the Tories for being better at politics. That's the game.
Who cares about stupid slogans? What matters is that they are virus beating. YOU said "If we open up, and there is a serious 3rd wave, that also spells the end of our "World beating vaccination program"
Well, the chances of that wave being specific to the UK are slim. Sure, our large sub-continent population combined with a government unwilling to shut the borders means it might hit us first, but if we're fucked, then so's the rest of Europe. Not that that would be of any consolation.
Ultimately, if the government delays, it needs to be more about vaccines than cases. They need to tell us the number of first/second doses (and possibly weeks after that point) at which they think we can let it go.
It's pointless worrying about variants.
Yes decisions happen eventually, but shaped by that weird context.
I hear many say "the NHS is the best health system in the world". When I ask them why they think there are waiting lists and I tell them most other countries in most circumstances don't have them, any more than car tyre and exhaust garages tend to have them, they go blank. A case of in one ear and straight out the other.
As for the SMEs dependent on international travel, Johnson did say "f*** business".
As opposed to 80% and 61% for 21st June
The EU can fudge it and agree to Trusted Trader schemes etc - but only if they're prepared to compromise.
Or if they refuse to compromise and we refuse a border in the Irish Sea then they can choose to put a border on Ireland.
Or if they refuse to compromise, we refuse a border in the Irish Sea, they refuse to put a border on Ireland then they can put a border between Ireland and the rest of the Single Market.
Or if they refuse to compromise, we refuse a border in the Irish Sea, they refuse to put a border on Ireland, and they refuse to put a border between Ireland and the rest of the Single Market then there won't be a border anywhere and the whole problem goes away.
Either way, we don't need to concede. Just as we never did, so long as we were prepared to put the ball in their court. Because they're better off compromising than they are putting a border up themselves or having No Deal.
Like most people they have a short ceremony, followed by a reception; in their case at the same venue.
Having guests wear masks at the ceremony is not a big deal. For the rest of the evening will be spent with a glass in hand (alcoholic or not)
I have no idea what Labour or the LibDems would do in the alternative. It's why, politically, the Government won't take much of a hit.
So get the Joint Committee to do its job. Don't expect the UK to commit to dynamic alignment.
Their accountant will show them the terms in their insurance.
Instead they seem to want to stand up for the illiberal Green Belt and telling people they can't build on their own land and want to say nothing at all about possibly the greatest peacetime restriction on civil liberties this country has seen in the modern era all while the NHS is at zero risk of imminent collapse.
The GPs in the area are vaccinating steadily. The 2 local mass vaccination centre(s) are 30 min *walk*. Both are next to huge carparks. And served by public transport (London).
I'll keep wearing a mask in shops as we don't have enough double jabbed people yet but the direction of travel is clear - Danmarks genåbning er på vej.
In any case, the Times today again says weddings limit will be lifted come what may on 21 June. Which is good news.
I'd go.
Or are they campaigning on illiberal ossification of housebuilding instead?
Now down "just" 3.7% from pre-pandemic peak.
It seems that this is normal with AZ - nobody I have spoken to has had any side effects on Jab 2.
I felt a bit ropey for half a day after J2
The safest time to remove restrictions would be once everyone has had 2 doses & 2 weeks for protection to kick in.
We can take more of a risk than that... but the delta variant has significantly increased the costs of removing restrictions too early.
It's noticeable on my local social media (which is full of Tories) that people are fine with most aspects of the current semi-lockdown except for the confusing travel policy. The amber list baffles everyone and the formal definition as being for emergencies has been totally lost.
A one-month delay to get to 80/60 (1st/2nd) vaccination of adults with some tweaks for weddings etc. seems to me a reasonable line that most people would accept.
If the EU didn't want Article 16 invoking they shouldn't have agreed to Article 16 in the deal. That they did, means its perfectly legitimate to use.
Besides, they literally started it: they've already invoked it themselves.
A 4 week delay would make that 90/82, at current rates.
@bbcnickrobinson asks @nadhimzahawi if the Government agrees with England players taking the knee during their #Euro2020 matches. We support players highlighting racism within the game, but the black lives matter movement is in "a different place". #R4Today https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1403268516892057603/video/1
Other than that it's a brilliant plan.
It's why they split up....
I think he was referring to the gaps all the way to the 80+
Arguably we are already going in the wrong direction & so logically may need to reintroduce some restrictions... but interestingly that doesn't seem to be talked about as a potential option. The 17 May opening up was surely a more dramatic increase to R than whatever additional lifting of restrictions will happen later?
I'm hoping that's because there's an obvious reason why it's not needed that I'm missing... and not that people are just unwilling to confront the reality of the situation.