In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
And that he seems to regard himself as a sort of cross between Asterix and D'Artagnan.
Now why can't we deal with the Extinction Rebellion criminals as summarily - "deliberate act of criminal damage", "deliberate act of aggravated trespass"?
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
No, that is just the first step, then its booster jabs, then its.....
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
And that he seems to regard himself as a sort of cross between Asterix and D'Artagnan.
Now why can't we deal with the Extinction Rebellion criminals as summarily - "deliberate act of criminal damage", "deliberate act of aggravated trespass"?
Because Priti Patel would just love to do that to anyone who disagrees with her form of nasty Conservativism.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
No, that is just the first step, then its booster jabs, then its.....
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
No, that is just the first step, then its booster jabs, then its.....
Exactly.
Have people not yet understood that this Gov't love goalpost moving? They do it all the time and they've so beaten their citizens into submission that people don't complain any more.
Today's 'let's wait until everyone is jabbed' will be 'let's wait until the boosters' and then 'let's get through the winter wave' and 'lets see the Vanuatu Variant pass' and so on and on and on until they have their next majority and the one after that and all that is left is for you to die in your old age, imprisoned by invisible chains.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
Whats 75-75?
75% adults first jab, 75% adults second jab - a somewhat higher standard for societal COVID immunity than the 70/70 targeted by Mr Biden, or the 70/x currently targeted by Brussels under their one jab=vaccinated definition.
For here, we are currently on (looks it up) 77/55.
I'd be far happier if we had a defined aspiration on that.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
At our nadir we had what 2000 cases a day ? We're now at 7500 or so. Deaths per day was 7 yesterday. That means we are at perhaps 30 from the current cases tops. Now look at the current worldometer deaths for well yesterday. In terms of suppression we are doing so well Cases - deaths - hospitalisation ratio I reckon is also a (very rough) proxy to average case severity. It's likely the vaccinated will not get long Covid in my view
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
No, that is just the first step, then its booster jabs, then its.....
Exactly.
Have people not yet understood that this Gov't love goalpost moving? They do it all the time and they've so beaten their citizens into submission that people don't complain any more.
Today's 'let's wait until everyone is jabbed' will be 'let's wait until the boosters' and then 'let's get through the winter wave' and 'lets see the Vanuatu Variant pass' and so on and on and on until they have their next majority and the one after that and all that is left is for you to die in your old age, imprisoned by invisible chains.
But look at the opinion polls. Hell, look at posters on here. People want it. That is our society now.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
Supply gets sorted in time, demand.... less so
There are many many countries in the world will never reach the level of vaccination protection that we have at the moment. It puts into perspective the line that “we are in a race against time - vaccine vs variant”...
It’s a manufactured race that may just be tiring us out for no good reason.
The logical conclusion of the let's just wait thinking is everyone vaccinated which is several months.
No, that is just the first step, then its booster jabs, then its.....
We should be grateful we will likely get booster jabs, but they should not be used to restrict our liberty
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
Whats 75-75?
75% adults first jab, 75% adults second jab - a somewhat higher standard for societal COVID immunity than the 70/70 targeted by Mr Biden, or the 70/x currently targeted by Brussels under their one jab=vaccinated definition.
For here, we are currently on (looks it up) 77/55.
I'd be far happier if we had a defined aspiration on that.
Incredibly arbitrary but given where we are I would accept some firm agreed metrics that when met, we will be allowed to get back to normal.
Obvious issues would be others in favour of lockdown say we need to vaccinate kids first, and we will also be getting very close to the start of the booster programme for the most vulnerable when we hit your 75/75.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
I was thinking of those who had died *of Covid* despite being double jabbed.
I agree more than four people will have died if we extend the sample...
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
Whats 75-75?
75% adults first jab, 75% adults second jab - a somewhat higher standard for societal COVID immunity than the 70/70 targeted by Mr Biden, or the 70/x currently targeted by Brussels under their one jab=vaccinated definition.
For here, we are currently on (looks it up) 77/55.
I'd be far happier if we had a defined aspiration on that.
Incredibly arbitrary but given where we are I would accept some firm agreed metrics that when met, we will be allowed to get back to normal.
Obvious issues would be others in favour of lockdown say we need to vaccinate kids first, and we will also be getting very close to the start of the booster programme for the most vulnerable when we hit your 75/75.
Agree, My comment got clipped.
I was wrong on Mr Biden. He is targeting 70/56 for July 4. 12 minutes in.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
To sort this the government authorises younger ages. Simple.
I think that's right. The UK needs to get it's act together vis a vis supply, the US, demand.
The UK has plenty of supply: they have 6m AZ doses in stock, and are receiving 300k+ more every day (albeit some are being used for second doses).
The government chose to only offer Moderna/Pfizer to younger age groups, which is good in some ways - but reduces the speed at which whole country herd immunity is reached.
The right strategy is to allow the AZ stockpile to be used in a mixed vax strategy: AZ first jab, Pfizer/Moderna second. The evidence from Spain is that AZ followed by Pfizer results in a stronger immune response than either AZ-AZ or PZE-PZE, and it is a much more efficient use of existing resources.
It would - for a start - allow us to get pretty much everyone over the age of 18 who wants one a first jab by the end of this month.
The UK government was absolutely spot on to prioritise first jabs in Feb/Mar/Apr, it seems insane that they have (a) forgotten this, and (b) are ignoring the emerging evidence that mixed vaccination strategies work better.
I have my second jab on Saturday. I will, of course, take whatever I am given, this is Scotland after all, but if there is an option of having a different vaccine from the Pfizer I had first time around I would take it. I for one would be delighted to receive AZ..
I have been enormously frustrated at the rate of vaccination over the last month. We have been averaging roughly half of what we should have been. The consequence of that failure, which largely arises from restrictions put on the use of AZ, are that 21st June is imperiled when it should not have been.
We have 2 options given where we are. We can wait another month whilst vaccination catches up with where we would have been had we been vaccinating at the rate needed or we can go with it and accept that there will be more cases and marginally more deaths than otherwise would have been the case.
My guess is that we will get some messy compromise where some but not all of the restrictions are lifted. This threatens our economic bounce back, the viability of businesses whose ability to trade profitably is still restricted and annoys the hell out of those who are double vaxxed and quite content to run any remaining risk such as May. There have been serious mistakes here which is an unfortunate end of a very successful program.
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
I was thinking of those who had died *of Covid* despite being double jabbed.
I agree more than four people will have died if we extend the sample...
Somebody told me yesterday that a quarter of current cases were people who are double-jabbed; I have no idea whether this is true?
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
The 20 odd patients in my hospital with covid are nearly all patients with lung disease.
The idea that they just coincidentally have covid has been nonsense throughout.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
This is true, but it is possible to overstate the figures
Covid is tested for by people of all ages, there's no particular age skew. The UK's crude (normal) death rate is around 9 people per 1000 in a year ( 90 per 10,000). There are 13 28 day blocks in a year which means around 7 deaths per 10,000 cases would die within a 28 day period anyway. Yesterday's "7" which probably arose from around 3,000 cases likely had perhaps 2 deaths that would have happened anyway.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
Well there is when the only game in townon this board is to criticise the he'll out of Boris.
Everyone here seems to be prepared to take the risk. How many on this site have actually had Covid19.? I know people who have had it and survived and had it and died within days.
I bet those on here calling for opening up would be a lot more cautious if they were in Govt and had to.make the decision themselves. .
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
Whats 75-75?
75% adults first jab, 75% adults second jab - a somewhat higher standard for societal COVID immunity than the 70/70 targeted by Mr Biden, or the 70/x currently targeted by Brussels under their one jab=vaccinated definition.
For here, we are currently on (looks it up) 77/55.
I'd be far happier if we had a defined aspiration on that.
Incredibly arbitrary but given where we are I would accept some firm agreed metrics that when met, we will be allowed to get back to normal.
Obvious issues would be others in favour of lockdown say we need to vaccinate kids first, and we will also be getting very close to the start of the booster programme for the most vulnerable when we hit your 75/75.
Agree, My comment got clipped.
I was wrong on Mr Biden. He is targeting 70/56 for July 4. 12 minutes in.
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
Of course statistics alone shouldn't drive policy, not sure anyone is arguing for that, but during a pandemic they must surely be front and centre.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
How perfectly charming. Lucky you.
Everyone can have a staycation if they are sensible about it. Most haven't had a holiday for a long time. They will do things open up and are deemed safe. Patience is the keyword.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
Well there is when the only game in townon this board is to criticise the he'll out of Boris.
Everyone here seems to be prepared to take the risk. How many on this site have actually had Covid19.? I know people who have had it and survived and had it and died within days.
I bet those on here calling for opening up would be a lot more cautious if they were in Govt and had to.make the decision themselves. .
There are at least as many if not more Boris loyalists on here than opponents, unsurprising given the age demographic, and there are lots who favour continued lockdown too. Not sure where you get your everyones from.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
That’s not how you pronounce ‘hyperbole’...
It nearly is sometimes, if I'm not watching myself. With me, it seems to be a thing about hanging es .
I still have a couple of words that still nearly catch me out, because I learnt them very young reading books beyond my age group. "Epi-tome" is another one. I think that is because I read "embryotome" (veterinary instrument for carrying out an embryotomy) in James Herriot before I met "epitome".
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
Outside of a few bods in Derbyshire police and the incompetent leaders of the Met I don't think the average rank and file police officer particularly cares about Covid any more. I mean think about their job and how much interaction they have with those who are going to not be worried about Covid or even likely vaccination any time soon.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
With the side benefit of gentle pressure to be jabbed on the unjabbed.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
The government is pathetic if it doesn't end restrictions on the 21st. As Neil Kinnock said in his militant speech - you cannot play politics with people's lives . There is now no risk from covid that is not a risk that has always been there from illness, flu, accidents and generally living life. You just cannot have irritating part restrictions (does putting on a mask for a minute in a shop really stop a third wave?) because there might be a risk of a variant etc . Johnson is not fit to be PM making these decisions if he cannto see that
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
Of course statistics alone shouldn't drive policy, not sure anyone is arguing for that, but during a pandemic they must surely be front and centre.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
My view is that when you are seeing signs of early exponential growth in cases it’s a big call scientifically and politically to say ‘everything is still fine’. I am sympathetic to those who want a couple of weeks to dig into the data or gather more evidence or to look for pretty high levels of confidence.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
Dont they need a test before they go to the test? They do for the football, pretty sure it is the same rules so definitely some precautions.
Sporting events are very eye catching but you are talking about 14,000 outdoors in quite a big area. The tube carries 600,000-700,000 in a cramped poorly ventilated indoor space.
Hamilton's made two serious mistakes. That's quite a lot given how good he is.
At an earlier race (I forget which) he went off-track, and while he did well to get going it was only the blind luck of the Bottas-Russell crash bringing out a safety car that allowed him to recover for good points.
In Baku he flicked on the magic brake thingummyjig that cooked his brakes and sent him off at the first corner, and out of the points.
If this continues it might be a telling difference.
"if there is an option of having a different vaccine from the Pfizer I had first time around I would take it. I for one would be delighted to receive AZ."
A point I made gently when I went for my second jab some weeks ago. A wider spread of antibodies, but policy decreed otherwise. I understand why.
Bojo isn't following data as much as following public opinion. Again, a habit of politicians. Science is never definite but even when it leans heavily in one direction, most journalists are too thick to understand, or want to understand.
They need stories 24/7. One day, they'll claim we're all going to die and we must never come out of lockdown. The next day, the headlines are about how screwed the hospitality sector or education sector are, and we must save them as a matter of urgency.
The vaccination triumph, and that's what it is, should provide protection against the childish antics of journalists. But politicians can't break the habit of a lifetime.
Over nineties die on a regular basis, with or without Covid. The numbers who happen to test positive depends on how many are tested. But one victim of journalistic ignorance is a sense of proportion - something that is anathema if you only want a story.
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
Of course statistics alone shouldn't drive policy, not sure anyone is arguing for that, but during a pandemic they must surely be front and centre.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
I’m not sure statistics are driving Govt policy though. It’s models, endless models. And the fear of the “worst case scenarios”, or, being generous, “reasonable” worst case scenarios, in those models. All we here is “there is a risk of this, or that, or a new vaccine escaping variant that we don’t yet know of, or...”.
Policy should almost never be guided by worst case scenarios. If it is then there is something wrong with the models.
To the extent that policy should follow models, it should follow central assumptions. With contingency plans for more pessimistic scenarios.
There is also a strong impression that models on Covid are driving out almost all other counterbalancing factors (except in the abstract). Why are there no models publicised about the economic impact of extensions of restrictions? The number of businesses and jobs this will effect? The knock on effect on public finances. And yes, future resources available for... the health service!
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
According to the government tracker, in the entirety of the Midlands there were 24 covid admissions yesterday, to make a total of 124, 17 on ventilators. Only 5 admissions for University Hospitals Birmingham.
If restriction lifting are imposed for another 4 weeks what will that change? There will still be these paranoid risks about a deadly third wave and no doubt a variant with some country's name on it - I am going for the Indonesian variant in the sweepstake. International travel cannot be cancelled forever so why cancel it now .
And that he seems to regard himself as a sort of cross between Asterix and D'Artagnan.
Now why can't we deal with the Extinction Rebellion criminals as summarily - "deliberate act of criminal damage", "deliberate act of aggravated trespass"?
The Extinction Rebellion have a defence in law that has a lot of precedence - they believe that they are acting to prevent a greater crime. So, yes, their actions are very deliberate, but that isn't enough to put them straight into the slammer.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
The 20 odd patients in my hospital with covid are nearly all patients with lung disease.
The idea that they just coincidentally have covid has been nonsense throughout.
I take it that this is pre-existing lung disease? On the assumption that is so is it reasonable to say that those with lung disease remain vulnerable to Covid even when vaxxed because their body is more vulnerable to its effects on the system, even if what they have is "mild" compared to full blown Covid?
This is obviously a problem if so. What we need to achieve is a much lower level of infection in the community as a whole. This should be possible as more people are double vaxxed and therefore less likely to either get infected or to transmit the virus but the slowness of vaccination over the last month means that we are not there yet.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
Frankly, whatever the govt. says on Monday, I suspect the hospitality industry will open up anyway. There will be the march to end all marches if it isn’t opened up and I suspect the media will cover this one sympathetically. I will certainly go on it and I haven’t been on one since the Brexit campaign.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
Of course statistics alone shouldn't drive policy, not sure anyone is arguing for that, but during a pandemic they must surely be front and centre.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
I’m not sure statistics are driving Govt policy though. It’s models, endless models. And the fear of the “worst case scenarios”, or, being generous, “reasonable” worst case scenarios, in those models. Policy should almost never be guided by worst case scenarios. If it is then there is something wrong with the models.
To the extent that policy should follow models, it should follow central assumptions. With contingency plans for more pessimistic scenarios.
There is also a strong impression that models on Covid are driving out almost all other counterbalancing factors (except in the abstract). Why are there no models publicised about the economic impact of extensions of restrictions? The number of businesses and jobs this will effect? The knock on effect on public finances. And yes, future resources available for... the health service!
I think the furlough scheme has a big part in that. Also the counter intuitive reality that even without furlough a significant proportion of households are economically better off under lockdown than normal conditions. With furlough it is a significant majority and especially amongst government voters.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
It doesn’t matter if there is another wave of the virus, as long as that doesn’t lead to another mass wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
So far, it isn’t. Almost everyone getting seriously ill is in groups that could have had the vaccine and failed to do so. I am afraid my sympathy for these people is wearing thin.
Have we any advance on the figure of four who have died despite being double jabbed? That’s where my sympathy would be. But equally, on a national level such small numbers are no reason to delay unlocking. That’s statistically likely to end up as a smaller proportion than of drivers who die in road accidents.
Statistically a significant number of double jabbed people will die every week, especially so since there's a high proportion of them over 50 years old.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
The 20 odd patients in my hospital with covid are nearly all patients with lung disease.
The idea that they just coincidentally have covid has been nonsense throughout.
I take it that this is pre-existing lung disease? On the assumption that is so is it reasonable to say that those with lung disease remain vulnerable to Covid even when vaxxed because their body is more vulnerable to its effects on the system, even if what they have is "mild" compared to full blown Covid?
This is obviously a problem if so. What we need to achieve is a much lower level of infection in the community as a whole. This should be possible as more people are double vaxxed and therefore less likely to either get infected or to transmit the virus but the slowness of vaccination over the last month means that we are not there yet.
They may or may not have pre existing lung disease, the admissions are for covid pneumonitis in the main.
On international travel near 70% do not intend doing so and on top of that covid has imbued a risk averse culture across the populace
I do have a personal interest in lifting restrictions as my son has his delayed marriage from August last year to the 31st July
The Minister phoned last night to say that the church has increased the numbers to 40, with masks and no singing but the organist will play as required
It is hoped that nearly 70 can attend the reception in a marquee but of course this does depend on Wales following England if Boris lifts the attendance at weddings as rumoured
If I was predicting Monday I would suggest most restrictions will be removed, but mask wearing and some social distancing remains together with encouragement to keep activities as much as possible outdoors
On the assumption Boris acts sensibly, and with the publics risk aversion, I do not think it will have much of a negative affect on the polls
The one thing is certain, I am glad I do not have to make these decisions
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
Dont they need a test before they go to the test? They do for the football, pretty sure it is the same rules so definitely some precautions.
Sporting events are very eye catching but you are talking about 14,000 outdoors in quite a big area. The tube carries 600,000-700,000 in a cramped poorly ventilated indoor space.
Seems to be that just makes my argument stronger. The Govt is vacillating about allowing this or that relaxation, when there are far more dangerous activities going on every day. I mean there are still distinctions in Scotland between whether there are two or three household in a group of six ffs!
And that he seems to regard himself as a sort of cross between Asterix and D'Artagnan.
Now why can't we deal with the Extinction Rebellion criminals as summarily - "deliberate act of criminal damage", "deliberate act of aggravated trespass"?
The Extinction Rebellion have a defence in law that has a lot of precedence - they believe that they are acting to prevent a greater crime. So, yes, their actions are very deliberate, but that isn't enough to put them straight into the slammer.
If restriction lifting are imposed for another 4 weeks what will that change? There will still be these paranoid risks about a deadly third wave and no doubt a variant with some country's name on it - I am going for the Indonesian variant in the sweepstake. International travel cannot be cancelled forever so why cancel it now .
In short there will have been another 14m vaccines which mean significantly more of the population double vaxxed and therefore unlikely to either get infected or to transmit the virus which would then struggle to find sufficient vectors to grow. This reduces the risk of new variants to a material degree and affects the balance of risks for society as a whole.
We could have already been there but we are not. Its unfortunate.
"if there is an option of having a different vaccine from the Pfizer I had first time around I would take it. I for one would be delighted to receive AZ."
A point I made gently when I went for my second jab some weeks ago. A wider spread of antibodies, but policy decreed otherwise. I understand why.
Bojo isn't following data as much as following public opinion. Again, a habit of politicians. Science is never definite but even when it leans heavily in one direction, most journalists are too thick to understand, or want to understand.
They need stories 24/7. One day, they'll claim we're all going to die and we must never come out of lockdown. The next day, the headlines are about how screwed the hospitality sector or education sector are, and we must save them as a matter of urgency.
The vaccination triumph, and that's what it is, should provide protection against the childish antics of journalists. But politicians can't break the habit of a lifetime.
Over nineties die on a regular basis, with or without Covid. The numbers who happen to test positive depends on how many are tested. But one victim of journalistic ignorance is a sense of proportion - something that is anathema if you only want a story.
.
I don't expect to be offered the choice of a different vaccine for the reasons you have said. Its annoying. My second pfizer could have been used to vaccinate someone younger.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
Never mind, big wedding celebrations will be allowed, even on days beyond the official ceremony. I wonder why....
I wonder if “renewing vows” is covered by wedding ceremonies. The concept of police going into large parties and having to determine whether it is or is not a wedding reception, as if somehow this matters, just shows the rabbit hole we’re going down.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
Dont they need a test before they go to the test? They do for the football, pretty sure it is the same rules so definitely some precautions.
Sporting events are very eye catching but you are talking about 14,000 outdoors in quite a big area. The tube carries 600,000-700,000 in a cramped poorly ventilated indoor space.
Seems to be that just makes my argument stronger. The Govt is vacillating about allowing this or that relaxation, when there are far more dangerous activities going on every day. I mean there are still distinctions in Scotland between whether there are two or three household in a group of six ffs!
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
If restriction lifting are imposed for another 4 weeks what will that change? There will still be these paranoid risks about a deadly third wave and no doubt a variant with some country's name on it - I am going for the Indonesian variant in the sweepstake. International travel cannot be cancelled forever so why cancel it now .
In short there will have been another 14m vaccines which mean significantly more of the population double vaxxed and therefore unlikely to either get infected or to transmit the virus which would then struggle to find sufficient vectors to grow. This reduces the risk of new variants to a material degree and affects the balance of risks for society as a whole.
We could have already been there but we are not. Its unfortunate.
It doesn’t really reduce the risk of the development of new variants “to a material degree” when there is the rest of the in vaxxed world to incubate them.
There is also the question of what causes variants? Is it not the case that viruses like to spread, and that at least one of the causes of mutation is when they find resistance. Arguably the most likely source of a vaccine busting variant, or at least one to become dominant, is in a highly vaccinated population (this isn’t remotely said with any expertise, so happy to be shot down...)
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
For travel to France, children “inherit” their parents’ vaccination status.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
That’s not how you pronounce ‘hyperbole’...
It nearly is sometimes, if I'm not watching myself. With me, it seems to be a thing about hanging es .
I still have a couple of words that still nearly catch me out, because I learnt them very young reading books beyond my age group. "Epi-tome" is another one. I think that is because I read "embryotome" (veterinary instrument for carrying out an embryotomy) in James Herriot before I met "epitome".
I suspect that I am in a minority here, but I like the fact that our culture is not driven exclusively by dry statistics. Looking for an acceptable death rate feels like the sort of policy that you might expect from a communist regime.
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
Skilled interpretation = understanding of dry statistics.
Indeed. Necessary, but still insufficient when deciding policy. Sadly some prefer to skip even that, look at a couple of data points and say bosh done, let’s go to Majorca.
Of course statistics alone shouldn't drive policy, not sure anyone is arguing for that, but during a pandemic they must surely be front and centre.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
My view is that when you are seeing signs of early exponential growth in cases it’s a big call scientifically and politically to say ‘everything is still fine’. I am sympathetic to those who want a couple of weeks to dig into the data or gather more evidence or to look for pretty high levels of confidence.
I think it's worth remembering that we would never have imposed any legal restrictions at all if the NHS hadn't been threatened with collapse. Looking at the numbers now vaccinated, it's hard to see how the NHS would now be overwhelmed - so I would say that the national emergency phase of the pandemic is over, and the justification for using emergency legal powers to impose extraordinary restrictions on day-to-day life no longer exists.
Obviously Covid remains a massive public health issue, and a global health emergency until vaccination rates globally increase. So you would expect the government to provide lots of advice. Any legal restrictions that we retain now have to be considered in the normal way, as for example with the smoking ban in pubs, because they will be permanent restrictions, rather than emergency restrictions, because the emergency is over.
Before we had the vaccines I was behind zero covid - stop it spreading on our island and keep it out with border controls - but the vaccines really do change the situation.
If restriction lifting are imposed for another 4 weeks what will that change? There will still be these paranoid risks about a deadly third wave and no doubt a variant with some country's name on it - I am going for the Indonesian variant in the sweepstake. International travel cannot be cancelled forever so why cancel it now .
In short there will have been another 14m vaccines which mean significantly more of the population double vaxxed and therefore unlikely to either get infected or to transmit the virus which would then struggle to find sufficient vectors to grow. This reduces the risk of new variants to a material degree and affects the balance of risks for society as a whole.
We could have already been there but we are not. Its unfortunate.
It doesn’t really reduce the risk of the development of new variants “to a material degree” when there is the rest of the in vaxxed world to incubate them.
There is also the question of what causes variants? Is it not the case that viruses like to spread, and that at least one of the causes of mutation is when they find resistance. Arguably the most likely source of a vaccine busting variant, or at least one to become dominant, is in a highly vaccinated population (this isn’t remotely said with any expertise, so happy to be shot down...)
The last point is incorrect - no sign of the Israeli and Gibraltar variants. Vaccines cut down transmission between people and viral load within people; in short there is just a hell of a lot less virus, and mutation is a numbers game. Even if it was true your first point points to a greater truth, the rest of the world is the petri dish for new variants now, not the UK. We just find them when they arrive due to superior sequencing.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Re your last paragraph is it lib dem policy to re-open the economy on the 21st June and allow international holidays
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Having foreign tourists etc come to Britain to spend their money is much more important once Britain is actually unlocked, not while Britain is still locked down. So 21 June first, then lifting foreign travel, not the other way around.
As for the Lib Dems I've said before I could be tempted by the Lib Dems but as far as C&A are concerned are they campaigning on a faster lifting of lockdown? Or are they campaigning primarily on NIMBYism? I respect one, I have no respect for the other - so which are the LDs putting on their leaflets? If its lift lockdown faster then I wouldn't mind too much if they win, if it is NIMBYism then I hope they get smashed to pieces.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Can you point me to an Ed Davey quote regarding unlock. Genuinely !
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
That’s not how you pronounce ‘hyperbole’...
It nearly is sometimes, if I'm not watching myself. With me, it seems to be a thing about hanging es .
I still have a couple of words that still nearly catch me out, because I learnt them very young reading books beyond my age group. "Epi-tome" is another one. I think that is because I read "embryotome" (veterinary instrument for carrying out an embryotomy) in James Herriot before I met "epitome".
We all have our kwerks.
I've always thought never make fun of people who mispronounce words as it shows they learnt the word while reading and that's not something to disrespect.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If restriction lifting are imposed for another 4 weeks what will that change? There will still be these paranoid risks about a deadly third wave and no doubt a variant with some country's name on it - I am going for the Indonesian variant in the sweepstake. International travel cannot be cancelled forever so why cancel it now .
In short there will have been another 14m vaccines which mean significantly more of the population double vaxxed and therefore unlikely to either get infected or to transmit the virus which would then struggle to find sufficient vectors to grow. This reduces the risk of new variants to a material degree and affects the balance of risks for society as a whole.
We could have already been there but we are not. Its unfortunate.
It doesn’t really reduce the risk of the development of new variants “to a material degree” when there is the rest of the in vaxxed world to incubate them.
There is also the question of what causes variants? Is it not the case that viruses like to spread, and that at least one of the causes of mutation is when they find resistance. Arguably the most likely source of a vaccine busting variant, or at least one to become dominant, is in a highly vaccinated population (this isn’t remotely said with any expertise, so happy to be shot down...)
Not quite my understanding- but then I try to teach physics if possible. So this may be oversimplified or wrong...
You get mutations when viruses reproduce with a copying error. Most mutations don't make a difference because they happen somewhere irrelevant or die out quickly because they harm the operation of the virus. If the mutation is beneficial, it takes over quickly. Like in Kent, India and the others.
But the virus has no agency, mutations just happen. It's really a numbers game- more viruses, more mutations, more chance of dumb luck making something happen.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
It's a matter for the Govt take the decision of what the likely risk is at any specific date. I don't blame them for taking their time over it. We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Of course it is a decision for the government! There really is not much point in a political discussion board if the answer is simply it is a decision for the government.
Well there is when the only game in townon this board is to criticise the he'll out of Boris.
Everyone here seems to be prepared to take the risk. How many on this site have actually had Covid19.? I know people who have had it and survived and had it and died within days.
I bet those on here calling for opening up would be a lot more cautious if they were in Govt and had to.make the decision themselves. .
There are at least as many if not more Boris loyalists on here than opponents, unsurprising given the age demographic, and there are lots who favour continued lockdown too. Not sure where you get your everyones from.
And the other point to make is that the activities we are discussing - going out to eat, nipping down the pub, going on holiday - aren't being made compulsory. If he wants to stay at home under the sofa, it's still a free country. The question is when having the government tell us what we can and cannot do, in respect of these formerly everyday activities, is replaced with us being able to make our own free choices.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Re your last paragraph is it lib dem policy to re-open the economy on the 21st June and allow international holidays
Does it matter? Win or lose in C&A it is Boris Johnson who makes the decision. He needs some encouragement.
One slightly odd thing is that despite all the talk of getting second doses done more quickly the gap between first and second doses has actually slipped to 78 days.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
Dynamic regulation is neither necessary or appropriate. We are an independent state that should set our own policy.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
What is the median income where you live, Foxy, and would you say in Leics you would be deemed "rich" or "not rich"?
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
I think abiding by SM rules until an agreement supersedes it would not be unpopular. Indeed I think we should emulate the animal welfare rules that the EU has just agreed for example.
It need nor be permanent, just as an interim measure.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Those of us with eyes and a brain could see what discarding NI from the UK would likely do. The protocol mandates that customs licenses and forms and checks are required to ship goods from GB to NI. That is what we signed. That we now claim that is not what we signed or that forms are only needed because of the perfidious EU is ludicrous.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Having foreign tourists etc come to Britain to spend their money is much more important once Britain is actually unlocked, not while Britain is still locked down. So 21 June first, then lifting foreign travel, not the other way around.
As for the Lib Dems I've said before I could be tempted by the Lib Dems but as far as C&A are concerned are they campaigning on a faster lifting of lockdown? Or are they campaigning primarily on NIMBYism? I respect one, I have no respect for the other - so which are the LDs putting on their leaflets? If its lift lockdown faster then I wouldn't mind too much if they win, if it is NIMBYism then I hope they get smashed to pieces.
I assumed in my comments that Theresa is in favour of keeping to the unlock date.
Those of us with eyes and a brain could see what discarding NI from the UK would likely do. The protocol mandates that customs licenses and forms and checks are required to ship goods from GB to NI. That is what we signed. That we now claim that is not what we signed or that forms are only needed because of the perfidious EU is ludicrous.
Almost everything BoZo says is ludicrous, but he won. Never mind the buffoonery, look at the majority...
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
What is the median income where you live, Foxy, and would you say in Leics you would be deemed "rich" or "not rich"?
Oh, I am in the top 1% of national income, so undeniably rich.
I mean the super-rich, citizens of nowhere, tax exiles, non-doms and the like. Those of us on PAYE have to cough up for them.
A touch of hyperbole from Mr Smithson . Geoffrey Howe's speech was way ahead of May.
I don't blame Boris for being ultra cautious, imagine the outcry if early relaxation led to a third wave of the virus.. unthinkable..
So when can we get back to normal, because relaxation, whether on June 21st, September 21st, 2022, 2025, or 2030 will carry the risk of another wave of the virus?
Touch of hyperbole ("hyper-bowl"), there.
Even if we wait for 75/75 or similar, it is only days or weeks.
That’s not how you pronounce ‘hyperbole’...
It nearly is sometimes, if I'm not watching myself. With me, it seems to be a thing about hanging es .
I still have a couple of words that still nearly catch me out, because I learnt them very young reading books beyond my age group. "Epi-tome" is another one. I think that is because I read "embryotome" (veterinary instrument for carrying out an embryotomy) in James Herriot before I met "epitome".
We all have our kwerks.
I've always thought never make fun of people who mispronounce words as it shows they learnt the word while reading and that's not something to disrespect.
I've recently started listening to a Chinese history podcast, so now I know that "Zhou" is pronounced "Joe" (though only because it was written in the podcast title, otherwise I'd be wondering why I never saw the "Jo Dynasty" written down before), and whenever I read anything with that Chinese name again I'm going to notice it as I correct my instinct to hear "Zoo" in my head.
On topic, now that vaccination is freely available to all adults over 25, and probably 18 in another week or so, exempting the double jabbed from quarantine like much of Europe is a no-brainer.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Well said Foxy, glad you are on board, we are in danger of throwing away the one silver bullet in the search for a phantom one.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
I would suggest that the rule for the untaxed, part vaxxed and children should be the same as at present, home isolation for 10 days. I would keep the red list ban.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
Who are the untaxed and how to I get to be one?
Unvaxxed via spell check. 🙄
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich unethical people tax is voluntary.
While I 100% agree with May (for once) that the government is being too slow at restoring freedoms, its absolutely crazy to be thinking about travel abroad as the next step to unlock before lifting restrictions domestically. Ensuring the 21st lifting happens on time and in full should be the first demand, then lifting travel restrictions.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
Her point seems to be more about having foreign tourists and business people coming to newly unlocked Britain to spend their money. She also makes the point that the clown car government staggers from headline to headline contradicting itself and making it up as it goes along.
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
Can you point me to an Ed Davey quote regarding unlock. Genuinely !
As I replied to Big G win or lose in C&A the LibDems and Ed Davey do not get to make the decision - the clown does. Do we want to encourage him to act decisively or not? Losing a seat in a nailed to the floor Tory constituency is a message that he needs to stop pissing about.
Pre-Brexit we used to understand the role of by-elections in such a time. An opportunity for people to express their disquiet to the government to make it change its approach.
In the US, children 12-18 can get vaccinated, and are doing so at a rapid clip. Why isn't the UK doing the same? Is it due to shortage, or other factors?
Because take-up is much lower in the US.
According to New York Times, in USA vax doses administered = 92 per 100 people, in UK = 104 per 100.
According to Bloomberg COVID Tracker, in USA fully vaxed = 42.6%, in UK = 43.2%
It's a fact that some states in US are lower; vax coverage ((pop divided by doses I think) in Mississippi = 31.5% compared with Vermont = 67.2% (and WA State = 54.3%). For total US = 47.7%, for UK = 52.2%
So while UK is ahead of US it is NOT by leaps & bounds. And of course there are also regional variations in UK, as documented on PB.
Though our vaxing of teenagers versus UK not (or not much) so far, does mean that gap between US adult vax rate and UK is higher than for % of total pop.
Rather than quote numbers on a single day, look at the rate of increase.
You could just cite the numbers, like this US = 0.33 per 100, UK = 0.72 per 100
True, a sizable gap. But isn't part of this fact that higher % of current jabs in US (esp. among older adults) are #2, compared with #1?
Again, you are quoting numbers on a single day and not looking at the rate, which is decreasing for the US. It's obvious take-up is lower, the US is on 50% of people given at least one vaccine, and they've already opened it up to children.
Why not cite the numbers instead of saying mine are not the correct ones to discuss? Might save time!
Because I'm citing the shape of the curve, not a single number. Notice how the US and UK were level pegging, and then the US starts to level off? That, in combination with vaccination being opened to children, implies take-up is significantly lower in the US than in the UK. Which brings us back to your original question, why are children being vaccinated in the US and not the UK.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
His snappy off-the-cuff phrases mostly turn into millstones further down the line, when the circumstances move on, or when their fundamental untruth finally becomes clear.
Note that those attacking May’s speech yesterday did so on the basis that it was sour grapes, rather than addressing the argument. @ping this morning is a honourable exception.
Tories have become lazy with their ‘we won, so suck it up’ attitude.
Also gloating about things too early and then being silent when they don't happen. Suddenly all very quiet on the we will open up this summer whilst the rest of Europe is in lockdown, as the reverse looks more likely.
The government should get a lot of credit if they do stand up to the zero covid arguments, and latitude if that goes wrong, but that does not seem to be what they are briefing the media. Expect a few restrictions to be eased, most to remain in place and then another review in 3-5 weeks. The problem is whatever risks we see now, are unlikely to not still be risks in 3-5 weeks time.
We do seem to have blown many advantages that could have arisen from the good rollout, which is unfortunate.
Even having called it "freedom day" doesn't look such a bright move by our PM, now, does it?
As always its tactically brilliant (mega headlines) and strategically stupid.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
The purpose of the protocol was to preserve peace in Northern Ireland
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
Though the Tories did fetishise the "oven ready deal" in 2019. I agree it was a huge mistake.
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
If your suggestion is the UK abides by Single Market regulations against its will then that's as pathetic as Brexiteers saying the solution is to rip the Republic of Ireland out of the Single Market against its will.
We *are* abiding by its regulations by our own will. You make the correct point though - there is no solution to the Irish Border issue. It was always the Elephant in the room and here we are half a year on from the deal and the elephant is still there.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57424520
And that he seems to regard himself as a sort of cross between Asterix and D'Artagnan.
Now why can't we deal with the Extinction Rebellion criminals as summarily - "deliberate act of criminal damage", "deliberate act of aggravated trespass"?
We are staying in a lodge in the Lake District this summer. Next year we will have two hols instead of one to.make up for it.
Have people not yet understood that this Gov't love goalpost moving? They do it all the time and they've so beaten their citizens into submission that people don't complain any more.
Today's 'let's wait until everyone is jabbed' will be 'let's wait until the boosters' and then 'let's get through the winter wave' and 'lets see the Vanuatu Variant pass' and so on and on and on until they have their next majority and the one after that and all that is left is for you to die in your old age, imprisoned by invisible chains.
For here, we are currently on (looks it up) 77/55.
I'd be far happier if we had a defined aspiration on that.
We're now at 7500 or so.
Deaths per day was 7 yesterday. That means we are at perhaps 30 from the current cases tops. Now look at the current worldometer deaths for well yesterday. In terms of suppression we are doing so well
Cases - deaths - hospitalisation ratio I reckon is also a (very rough) proxy to average case severity.
It's likely the vaccinated will not get long Covid in my view
We should be jabbing 24/7. Uni students would be only too happy to roll up their sleeves at 2am pop up vax sites.
It's a no brainer: open 24/7 clinics in every University town until the end of term. But, needless to say, we missed this flaming-obvious one.
Some of those will inevitably have tested positive for covid in the previous 28 days.
Which doesn't mean covid killed them.
Obvious issues would be others in favour of lockdown say we need to vaccinate kids first, and we will also be getting very close to the start of the booster programme for the most vulnerable when we hit your 75/75.
I agree more than four people will have died if we extend the sample...
There is a legitimate human and political dimension with all this. Also, in any case, the fact that when you are dealing with exponential growth short term snapshots of stats can be misleading if either direction. It requires a reasonable amount of skilled interpretation.
I was wrong on Mr Biden. He is targeting 70/56 for July 4. 12 minutes in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1vOn8rQ5LE
In general I agree that we need to see most of June 21 happen, and need some very clear messages on Monday.
US is on something like 66/56 by my numbers. (I am surprised by coverage saying he won't make it).
In general I agree that we need to see June 21 happen then or very soon afterwards, and need some *very* clear messages if not.
I have been enormously frustrated at the rate of vaccination over the last month. We have been averaging roughly half of what we should have been. The consequence of that failure, which largely arises from restrictions put on the use of AZ, are that 21st June is imperiled when it should not have been.
We have 2 options given where we are. We can wait another month whilst vaccination catches up with where we would have been had we been vaccinating at the rate needed or we can go with it and accept that there will be more cases and marginally more deaths than otherwise would have been the case.
My guess is that we will get some messy compromise where some but not all of the restrictions are lifted. This threatens our economic bounce back, the viability of businesses whose ability to trade profitably is still restricted and annoys the hell out of those who are double vaxxed and quite content to run any remaining risk such as May. There have been serious mistakes here which is an unfortunate end of a very successful program.
The idea that they just coincidentally have covid has been nonsense throughout.
Covid is tested for by people of all ages, there's no particular age skew. The UK's crude (normal) death rate is around 9 people per 1000 in a year ( 90 per 10,000). There are 13 28 day blocks in a year which means around 7 deaths per 10,000 cases would die within a 28 day period anyway. Yesterday's "7" which probably arose from around 3,000 cases likely had perhaps 2 deaths that would have happened anyway.
Everyone here seems to be prepared to take the risk. How many on this site have actually had Covid19.? I know people who have had it and survived and had it and died within days.
I bet those on here calling for opening up would be a lot more cautious if they were in Govt and had to.make the decision themselves. .
I'm not surprised by coverage that he won't make it, but I think he could.
A key question for us as a nation is why are we restricting normality more than the vast majority of Western democracies, when we are in a better position on vaccination and case numbers than most?
I think there are several different reasons. Very divided trust in the government, very low risk appetite partly from security from furlough and partly from extremely effective messaging from the govt on the covid risks, the way our media interacts with govt and sensationalises issues, and the PM personally being seen as too slow in earlier lockdowns and complicit in the Indian variant spreading making him too cautious now.
We are not going to have an airline and international tourist industry by the autumn if we don't.
Yesterday I read that the current hospitalisation “hotspot” (however debased that phrase is at the moment) is the West Midlands. Where there is a test match going on with capacity crowds, apparently with no COVID precautions in place at all.
I still have a couple of words that still nearly catch me out, because I learnt them very young reading books beyond my age group. "Epi-tome" is another one. I think that is because I read "embryotome" (veterinary instrument for carrying out an embryotomy) in James Herriot before I met "epitome".
We all have our kwerks.
What about children of vaccinated parents travelling together?
Sporting events are very eye catching but you are talking about 14,000 outdoors in quite a big area. The tube carries 600,000-700,000 in a cramped poorly ventilated indoor space.
F1: a small note/observation.
Hamilton's made two serious mistakes. That's quite a lot given how good he is.
At an earlier race (I forget which) he went off-track, and while he did well to get going it was only the blind luck of the Bottas-Russell crash bringing out a safety car that allowed him to recover for good points.
In Baku he flicked on the magic brake thingummyjig that cooked his brakes and sent him off at the first corner, and out of the points.
If this continues it might be a telling difference.
"if there is an option of having a different vaccine from the Pfizer I had first time around I would take it. I for one would be delighted to receive AZ."
A point I made gently when I went for my second jab some weeks ago. A wider spread of antibodies, but policy decreed otherwise. I understand why.
Bojo isn't following data as much as following public opinion. Again, a habit of politicians. Science is never definite but even when it leans heavily in one direction, most journalists are too thick to understand, or want to understand.
They need stories 24/7. One day, they'll claim we're all going to die and we must never come out of lockdown. The next day, the headlines are about how screwed the hospitality sector or education sector are, and we must save them as a matter of urgency.
The vaccination triumph, and that's what it is, should provide protection against the childish antics of journalists. But politicians can't break the habit of a lifetime.
Over nineties die on a regular basis, with or without Covid. The numbers who happen to test positive depends on how many are tested. But one victim of journalistic ignorance is a sense of proportion - something that is anathema if you only want a story.
.
Policy should almost never be guided by worst case scenarios. If it is then there is something wrong with the models.
To the extent that policy should follow models, it should follow central assumptions. With contingency plans for more pessimistic scenarios.
There is also a strong impression that models on Covid are driving out almost all other counterbalancing factors (except in the abstract). Why are there no models publicised about the economic impact of extensions of restrictions? The number of businesses and jobs this will effect? The knock on effect on public finances. And yes, future resources available for... the health service!
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust
This is obviously a problem if so. What we need to achieve is a much lower level of infection in the community as a whole. This should be possible as more people are double vaxxed and therefore less likely to either get infected or to transmit the virus but the slowness of vaccination over the last month means that we are not there yet.
The biggest example of which is playing out at the G7. No, we can't sign a deal for headlines and then renege on it months later. For some unknown reason our friends and future trade deal partners think this behaviour isn't conducive to trust and have told us so clearly.
As for the comments in the Commons yesterday what is funniest of all is that the former leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister is a far better leader of the opposition than sirkeir.
There will be the march to end all marches if it isn’t opened up and I suspect the media will cover this one sympathetically. I will certainly go on it and I haven’t been on one since the Brexit campaign.
I'd have more respect for May's position if she had backed Baker etc in opposing extending restrictions law for six months back in March. Instead it just seems to be foreign travel she's most concerned with and not domestic restrictions throttling the economy and livelihoods at home.
On international travel near 70% do not intend doing so and on top of that covid has imbued a risk averse culture across the populace
I do have a personal interest in lifting restrictions as my son has his delayed marriage from August last year to the 31st July
The Minister phoned last night to say that the church has increased the numbers to 40, with masks and no singing but the organist will play as required
It is hoped that nearly 70 can attend the reception in a marquee but of course this does depend on Wales following England if Boris lifts the attendance at weddings as rumoured
If I was predicting Monday I would suggest most restrictions will be removed, but mask wearing and some social distancing remains together with encouragement to keep activities as much as possible outdoors
On the assumption Boris acts sensibly, and with the publics risk aversion, I do not think it will have much of a negative affect on the polls
The one thing is certain, I am glad I do not have to make these decisions
Very unfortunate
We could have already been there but we are not. Its unfortunate.
Children isolating at home in the school hols is not a real burden.
There is also the question of what causes variants? Is it not the case that viruses like to spread, and that at least one of the causes of mutation is when they find resistance. Arguably the most likely source of a vaccine busting variant, or at least one to become dominant, is in a highly vaccinated population (this isn’t remotely said with any expertise, so happy to be shot down...)
In normal times people would give such a government a good kicking to bring it to its senses. Lets hope the people of Chesham and Amersham do so next Thursday. You want unlock faster? Wish for a LD byelection smash. Shagger follows the headlines.
But I struggle with compartmentalisation
Obviously Covid remains a massive public health issue, and a global health emergency until vaccination rates globally increase. So you would expect the government to provide lots of advice. Any legal restrictions that we retain now have to be considered in the normal way, as for example with the smoking ban in pubs, because they will be permanent restrictions, rather than emergency restrictions, because the emergency is over.
Before we had the vaccines I was behind zero covid - stop it spreading on our island and keep it out with border controls - but the vaccines really do change the situation.
Its implementation appears to be putting that under serious strain
So it is reasonable to say “is there a better way”
Fetishising “The Deal” is a huge mistake.
As for the Lib Dems I've said before I could be tempted by the Lib Dems but as far as C&A are concerned are they campaigning on a faster lifting of lockdown? Or are they campaigning primarily on NIMBYism? I respect one, I have no respect for the other - so which are the LDs putting on their leaflets? If its lift lockdown faster then I wouldn't mind too much if they win, if it is NIMBYism then I hope they get smashed to pieces.
He was told there was a better way.
He fetishized "the deal"
It was a huge mistake.
And he was cheered to the rafters on here...
The way to minimise the Irish Sea Border is for our government to agree to abide by dynamic agreement to abide by Single Market regulations nationwide.
You get mutations when viruses reproduce with a copying error. Most mutations don't make a difference because they happen somewhere irrelevant or die out quickly because they harm the operation of the virus. If the mutation is beneficial, it takes over quickly. Like in Kent, India and the others.
But the virus has no agency, mutations just happen. It's really a numbers game- more viruses, more mutations, more chance of dumb luck making something happen.
Though in your circles there do seem to be many untaxed too. For rich people tax is voluntary.
Anyone who didn't learn about Xerxes at school is going to have fun trying to work it out.
[Zerk-zees].
It need nor be permanent, just as an interim measure.
Boris Johnson is considering a four-week delay to the easing of lockdown restrictions on June 21
The conversation in Govt is increasingly turning to how long the delay will be, rather than whether there will be one
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-ponders-four-week-delay-end-covid-restrictions-cg6kmm290
I mean the super-rich, citizens of nowhere, tax exiles, non-doms and the like. Those of us on PAYE have to cough up for them.
Pre-Brexit we used to understand the role of by-elections in such a time. An opportunity for people to express their disquiet to the government to make it change its approach.
I know that you don't believe there has to be a border anywhere but the people in charge of the various countries and markets do. If as we insist the UK is free to change its standards from the EEA then a border has to go somewhere.
It can't go on Ireland. Its clear that it can't go into the Irish Sea. Which means either the UK is staying formally aligned to the EEA (as we are de facto anyway) or the Republic of Ireland is being propelled out.
Either way there is trouble ahead. Perhaps for a giggle we could propose our fictional digital border model again - the one that hasn't been invented and not implemented anywhere in the world.