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Fighting COVID – is striving after perfection the enemy of the good? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....I don't understand why that appears to have pissed off more people.

    Do they genuinely think that “re-educating” several million football fans is going to end positively for them, or do they not understand that the booing will just get louder?

    If we’re doing predictions, then by the middle of the Euros there will be ‘discussions’ about the pre-match gestures.

    Remember that the England fans now have a good reputation for fan behaviour in the stadium, thanks to Kick It Out. The same can’t be said of the fans of many other Euros participants. Do we think crowds in Baku and St. Petersberg will be quiet?
    Good. Shows why the footballers should keep standing up (by kneeling) for what they believe in.

    "Don't campaign against racism because the racists will object" is not a notion that anyone should consider for more than a few seconds.
    The problem isn’t the racists, of whom there are very few, it’s the huge number of not-racists objecting to being told that they are.
    But they're not being told they are, they're being told that some people are and footballers want to Kick It Out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348

    RobD said:

    Excellent thread and I totally agree with Mike.

    If the link between cases and deaths has been broken by vaccination, which it has, then we REALLY need to get on and live our lives.

    "If" is a powerful word! The current situation is a combination of the effect of vaccinations, restrictions, people's voluntary behaviours and, indeed, the weather. Precisely how much each of those has contributed is not known. Hopefully, we can reduce restrictions and everything else continues to work. I think that's likely, but I don't believe it's a slam dunk decision.

    No-one died in 2020 because of lead poisoning from paint. Does that mean we should therefore abolish all restrictions on the use of lead in paint? No. We have restrictions because of the number of deaths they prevent. You can't tell what that number is from looking at the number of deaths with the restrictions present.
    So we should never review the restrictions on lead in paint to see if they are appropriate or proportionate?
    I am unclear how your reply is related to what I wrote.

    We are, constantly, reviewing COVID restrictions. "We" meaning the government, the DHSC, SAGE, the scientific community, media commentators, PB.com commentators and everyone else. Once the crisis is over, I'm sure rules on lead in paint can be reviewed too.
    We watched the links between cases, hospitalisation and deaths break, as the age structure for cases, hospitalisations and deaths changed on a day by day basis.

    The recent evidence regarding the vaccination status of those being hospitalised and the age groups to which they belong confirmed this further.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656

    Ferdinand is another absolutely useless pundit. When they have Joe Cole, Ashely Cole and him together, with Lee Dixon on co-commentary, I feel my knowledge of the game and general IQ dropping through the floor.

    It's so amusing to see him and Scholes having to hold back about how disappointing their ex team mate who is currently manager of United is.
    We really need a revolution in pundits. All this talk of increasing diversity, how about increasing the quality. It is still the old boys (and now girls club) of you were a famous player, therefore you must know what you are talking about.

    But that a) doesn't mean they have the ability to disseminate this information and b) several years out of the game, it changes, it adapts.

    Having seen a talk by the analysts at Liverpool, the Fergie style throw your boots at players and scream and shout has been replaced by Machine Learning on big data, probability models, etc, which is then packaged up to players.
    Yeah, I mean Liverpool's analysts include someone with a degree in physics from Cambridge, someone else who has worked for NASA.

    The metrics they use now is out of this world, things like pre assists.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Ferdinand is another absolutely useless pundit. When they have Joe Cole, Ashely Cole and him together, with Lee Dixon on co-commentary, I feel my knowledge of the game and general IQ dropping through the floor.

    It's so amusing to see him and Scholes having to hold back about how disappointing their ex team mate who is currently manager of United is.
    Is that the United who finished ahead of Liverpool?
    Perhaps you missed the fact the best United could do is five points ahead of Liverpool who missed their first, second, and third choice centre backs for most of the season and had to rely on their sixth and seventh choice centre backs for the last 12 matches.

    One of whom was playing national league football last season.

    Even most objective Manchester United fans know what is coming, they aren't winning the PL with the PE teacher in charge.
    That’s awfully harsh on PE teachers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....

    England will flub the euros, and this will be one reason. A team that antagonises some of its fans never prospers
    England will flub the euros because Mr Waistcoast is very negative manager, won't pick the world class attacking talent, while England have a very leaky defence that will always concede against good teams.

    But all of this really isn't helping. Any objections to the act is now being dismissed as the thick racists, and I am sure there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but don't think they should still be taking the knee, thinking hold on I'm been called a thick racist. Just like Brexit....thick racists voted for Brexit, not all people who voted Brexit are thick racists.
    You're right there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but there are a lot of thick racists that are.

    Should the thick racists who are booing, who have been causing upset to footballers for years, which is precisely why footballers are doing this be called out or not?

    Saying you shouldn't call out the thick racists, because others might object, is an odd logic.
    No it has dissolved into an argument of, if your against this action, you are a thick racist....you need to be re-educated.

    The media types have given up on any attempts at persuasive language of we understand some people object to the gesture, they see it linked to an organisation they don't agree with, etc. It is now thick racists.

    It is the same as Brexit.
    Because they are thick racists. 🤷‍♂️

    Its a gesture against racism. Its not linked to any organisation. If you're objecting to a gesture against racism then that shows why the gesture is necessary and long may it continue.
    But people see that it is (in their opinion).

    That is why the NFL doesn't do this. They found a middle ground that nobody complains about.
    We're not American and we're not the NFL.

    If footballers want to kneel against racism then good for them and they should continue to do so until the message gets through that racism is unacceptable and nobody objects and everyone gets bored of it.

    The fact people are booing against kneeling against racism shows why this is necessary and should continue and maybe be stepped up a gear.
    Christ on a fucking bike, Philip. People aren't complaining about footballers not being racist. They're complaining about all the other things that go with this specific gesture - not least the implication that football fans are racist.
    There are a lot of things that are wrong with the world. Why has sport death focus on highlighting just this particular issue? Why now?
    It's nothing but another front in the culture war.
    Why?

    Because footballers are at the thick end of abuse from thick racists and are fed up of it.

    Good for them. What about that do you object to?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited June 2021
    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    edited June 2021


    The recent evidence regarding the vaccination status of those being hospitalised

    I wish that data was explicitly published - cases, deaths, hospitalisations by vaccination status.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,793
    DougSeal said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy Burnham criticises the decision of Magdalen students to remove the portrait of the Queen
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1402524022970228738?s=20

    Say what you like about Andy Burnham, but he can get the tone right. Has Kier Starmer weighed in on this issue yet?
    The MCR is a room, typically small and airless, tucked away in an obscure corner of most Oxbridge colleges. It will have a sour smell of coffee and body odour, and you will usually find a couple of ill-dressed graduate students lazing around inside. One of them may be doing the Sudoku in yesterday's copy of the Guardian. Perhaps the other is watching a cat video on his phone.
    Some of these students, in one of these MCRs, decided a few years ago to put up a picture on wall of the room. Now some other students have decided to take it down.
    That this is occupying a single nanosecond of the national conversation is a pretty damning indictment of how far our political discourse has degenerated. Any politician who weighs in on this in any capacity needs to take a good hard look at themselves.
    I agree entirely. Neatly tying together several recent culture war issues, I first came across my now wife while we were both watching the Martin Bashir Diana interview in the Trinity Oxford JCR in 1995.
    Nice. I remember watching it in our JCR too (the JCR is basically a TV room with a constitution). It was compelling viewing, although in general I paid very little attention to the Royals in those days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....I don't understand why that appears to have pissed off more people.

    Do they genuinely think that “re-educating” several million football fans is going to end positively for them, or do they not understand that the booing will just get louder?

    If we’re doing predictions, then by the middle of the Euros there will be ‘discussions’ about the pre-match gestures.

    Remember that the England fans now have a good reputation for fan behaviour in the stadium, thanks to Kick It Out. The same can’t be said of the fans of many other Euros participants. Do we think crowds in Baku and St. Petersberg will be quiet?
    Good. Shows why the footballers should keep standing up (by kneeling) for what they believe in.

    "Don't campaign against racism because the racists will object" is not a notion that anyone should consider for more than a few seconds.
    The problem isn’t the racists, of whom there are very few, it’s the huge number of not-racists objecting to being told that they are.
    But they're not being told they are, they're being told that some people are and footballers want to Kick It Out.
    They perceive that they’re all being called racists, and don’t like it one bit.

    Kick It Out was brilliant, they should stick to that - or come up with an inclusive, positive campaign as the NFL did.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think this is one of the best essays on the current culture wars that I've read: https://meanjin.com.au/essays/in-defence-of-the-bad-white-working-class/
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK’s vaccination programme has broken the link between infections, hospital admissions and deaths, and hospitals were reporting fewer and younger patients, according to a senior boss in the NHS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss

    To me, that's absolutely categoric evidence for opening on 21 June. Hopson has been among the most conservative figures in this pandemic. He is at the frontline. And he thinks it's all over.
    Yup, the people asking for extensions are just institutionalised by lockdown. They fear the freedom and change that comes with it. They're so used to this awful new normal that the can't see why the old way was better and are scared of that unknown quantity. I have no issue with that, those people are free to stay home and wear masks all the time. They shouldn't impose that on the rest of us who are happy to take that risk of going out and being free. Freedom necessarily has personal risks. The collective risk from COVID has been eliminated by vaccination.
    I have long admired your certainty about various topical issues, but you may want to reconsider or at least caveat the final sentence.
    Its already caveated by the word collective.

    There's a risk to some individuals that they might individually get sick, but there's no collective risk like there was in January or March 2020.
    I am not an expert on Covid-19, but I think we are some way from being able to say that the collective risk has been eliminated. I think we can say that the vaccines seem to work but there are still a lot of unknowns.
    No we are not any way from it. We are there.

    The vaccine rollout is complete in Groups 1 to 9, double-jabbed. There's nothing more to be done there. Yes there may be some antivaxxers but we could wait weeks, months or years they still won't be vaccinated if they're refusing it and don't change their minds.

    So if you think that we are collectively at risk then you need to please answer two questions:

    Firstly: Who are we collectively at risk from? Which JCVI groups for instance?
    Secondly: When will we cease to be at risk from them?

    If you can't answer those questions, the collective risk is gone as best as it can ever be.
    About 15-20% of ICU admissions were Phase 2 under the JCVI groups
    The majority were Groups 5-9. Assume they're downshifted by 60% (most in this group still need a short time before getting the plus-two-weeks protection), and Groups 1-4 are effectively nil.

    That would mean that any given infection level would give one third to one half of ICU admissions as before, with the skew being heavily younger.


    Hopefully these would progress through faster (albeit some with permanent health issues on discharge).

    That's where the risk comes from. The risk diminishes with every jab and with every day after second jab, which is where time does come into the equation. We don't know how great the risk will be, and can hope that Delta has already left it too late to race us to a serious issue, but it's not yet certain and that's where it can come from.
    Nicely described.

    The delta variant is estimated to be 2.6x more likely to lead to hospitalization -> that's another factor to consider. When you add in the increased transmissability -> that's how SAGE got to higher levels of hospital admissions I guess.
    Estimated by whom?
    Public Health England.
    (I think this link will work).
    2.6x increase in hospitalization, but 67% more likely for emergency -> I now notice. Technical briefing 14 on delta.

    https://t.co/QRUPd926sI?amp=1
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Here's an idea. Why doesn't the government remove legal restrictions on 21 June but replace it with strong guidance for zero- and single-jabbers?

    What is wrong with that approach? Why does everything have to be a law?

    (The WFH guidance isn't a law, and has worked well).

    The Telegraph were complaining last night that that might be what happens.

    Interesting. Cheers. Do you have a link?
    Pretty much throughout this pandemic I have bemoaned the fact that it is all law. The govt doesn't trust us to act rationally, even as people, such as @rcs1000 reply to what they think are anti-lockdown rants by saying "people would lockdown voluntarily".

    It seems we can't be trusted. There, that's it. And the whole fucking nation and far too many on PB, for such a repository of critical thinkers, just sit there and applaud.
    The Guidance has never been law.

    Back in March 2020 it said in I think para 2 that "This advice...". Advice is optional by definition.

    That's why Derbyshire police found themselves swinging in the wind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656
    edited June 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Ferdinand is another absolutely useless pundit. When they have Joe Cole, Ashely Cole and him together, with Lee Dixon on co-commentary, I feel my knowledge of the game and general IQ dropping through the floor.

    It's so amusing to see him and Scholes having to hold back about how disappointing their ex team mate who is currently manager of United is.
    Is that the United who finished ahead of Liverpool?
    Perhaps you missed the fact the best United could do is five points ahead of Liverpool who missed their first, second, and third choice centre backs for most of the season and had to rely on their sixth and seventh choice centre backs for the last 12 matches.

    One of whom was playing national league football last season.

    Even most objective Manchester United fans know what is coming, they aren't winning the PL with the PE teacher in charge.
    That’s awfully harsh on PE teachers.
    I know.

    It's the Klopp delusion that far too many fans and owners have fallen for.

    Where they think you give a manager enough time they'll do a Klopp and produce title winning and CL winning/finalist teams on a non Bayern/City/Chelsea budget.

    Even Red Nev has admitted he prefers watching Liverpool play than United because of the way they play football under Klopp.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Pulpstar said:

    Heard another suspension in relation to historical tweets for some rugby league player. Even my fiancee thinks it's all ridiculous and she'll never ever ever vote Tory in a GE.

    If it is Kristian Inu you are on about this is slightly more serious. It is a post from May, not historic.
    Although I don't know what he wrote, however, it seems to be in support of ex-team-mate Jarryd Hayne, who's just been jailed for 5+ years for sexual assault. And an implication that there was some heavy victim blaming.
    And the player himself has admitted he's out of order.
    So. Quite serious compared to some other recent cases. I don't think there are many employers who wouldn't be taking action in these circumstances.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mood music out of the Partnership Council/Joint Committee is pretty downbeat.

    - No progress on chilled meats. One source says feels like things may have actually gone backwards.
    - Despite briefing they had an NI medicines proposal, sources say EU gave zero detail

    There has been some progress in other areas -

    EU access to UK customs IT systems and databases
    second hand vehicles into NI

    And EU is due to provide proposals on medicines, high-risk plant movement and livestock movements between GB and NI


    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1402601599877496832?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Villiers is a miserable politician.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Don't get married and use the money on a nice holiday/car/whatever or deposit/one off payment for a house/mortgage.

    That's my advice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....I don't understand why that appears to have pissed off more people.

    Do they genuinely think that “re-educating” several million football fans is going to end positively for them, or do they not understand that the booing will just get louder?

    If we’re doing predictions, then by the middle of the Euros there will be ‘discussions’ about the pre-match gestures.

    Remember that the England fans now have a good reputation for fan behaviour in the stadium, thanks to Kick It Out. The same can’t be said of the fans of many other Euros participants. Do we think crowds in Baku and St. Petersberg will be quiet?
    Good. Shows why the footballers should keep standing up (by kneeling) for what they believe in.

    "Don't campaign against racism because the racists will object" is not a notion that anyone should consider for more than a few seconds.
    The problem isn’t the racists, of whom there are very few, it’s the huge number of not-racists objecting to being told that they are.
    But they're not being told they are, they're being told that some people are and footballers want to Kick It Out.
    They perceive that they’re all being called racists, and don’t like it one bit.

    Kick It Out was brilliant, they should stick to that - or come up with an inclusive, positive campaign as the NFL did.
    Kick It Out was a good start but players have for good reason even before the kneeling began been saying it didn't go far enough and that they were still experiencing too much racism. So should they just continue to be subject to racist abuse and do nothing about it?

    They have come up with an inclusive, positive campaign - they're kneeling before kick off for a moment as part of Kick It Out. Good for them. If someone has a better alternative let them bring it forwards, instead of booing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217

    Mood music out of the Partnership Council/Joint Committee is pretty downbeat.

    - No progress on chilled meats. One source says feels like things may have actually gone backwards.
    - Despite briefing they had an NI medicines proposal, sources say EU gave zero detail

    There has been some progress in other areas -

    EU access to UK customs IT systems and databases
    second hand vehicles into NI

    And EU is due to provide proposals on medicines, high-risk plant movement and livestock movements between GB and NI


    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1402601599877496832?s=20

    Is a high-risk plant a forklift, or a venus flytrap?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021

    Ferdinand is another absolutely useless pundit. When they have Joe Cole, Ashely Cole and him together, with Lee Dixon on co-commentary, I feel my knowledge of the game and general IQ dropping through the floor.

    It's so amusing to see him and Scholes having to hold back about how disappointing their ex team mate who is currently manager of United is.
    We really need a revolution in pundits. All this talk of increasing diversity, how about increasing the quality. It is still the old boys (and now girls club) of you were a famous player, therefore you must know what you are talking about.

    But that a) doesn't mean they have the ability to disseminate this information and b) several years out of the game, it changes, it adapts.

    Having seen a talk by the analysts at Liverpool, the Fergie style throw your boots at players and scream and shout has been replaced by Machine Learning on big data, probability models, etc, which is then packaged up to players.
    Yeah, I mean Liverpool's analysts include someone with a degree in physics from Cambridge, someone else who has worked for NASA.

    The metrics they use now is out of this world, things like pre assists.
    A few years ago, I was staying in the same hotel as Red Bull Salzburg (another team famous for being ahead of the game on analytics). They were super friendly and I got to see a bit of what they get sent, was really interesting as a data monkey.

    Was quite amusing seeing them all there in the hotel bar the day before the game focused on their iPads having to complete all these quizzes / tests like school kids at after school club.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Don't get married and use the money on a nice holiday/car/whatever or deposit/one off payment for a house/mortgage.

    That's my advice.
    Or do what my wife and I did, have a small secret wedding that only immediate family and close friends are invited to. There were a total of 35 people at our wedding and 55 for the evening. None of my extended family were invited because there's about a billion of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Here's an idea. Why doesn't the government remove legal restrictions on 21 June but replace it with strong guidance for zero- and single-jabbers?

    What is wrong with that approach? Why does everything have to be a law?

    (The WFH guidance isn't a law, and has worked well).

    The Telegraph were complaining last night that that might be what happens.

    Interesting. Cheers. Do you have a link?
    Pretty much throughout this pandemic I have bemoaned the fact that it is all law. The govt doesn't trust us to act rationally, even as people, such as @rcs1000 reply to what they think are anti-lockdown rants by saying "people would lockdown voluntarily".

    It seems we can't be trusted. There, that's it. And the whole fucking nation and far too many on PB, for such a repository of critical thinkers, just sit there and applaud.
    The Guidance has never been law.

    Back in March 2020 it said in I think para 2 that "This advice...". Advice is optional by definition.

    That's why Derbyshire police found themselves swinging in the wind.
    There have been plenty of measures which had force in law. As the guidance noted!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....I don't understand why that appears to have pissed off more people.

    Do they genuinely think that “re-educating” several million football fans is going to end positively for them, or do they not understand that the booing will just get louder?

    If we’re doing predictions, then by the middle of the Euros there will be ‘discussions’ about the pre-match gestures.

    Remember that the England fans now have a good reputation for fan behaviour in the stadium, thanks to Kick It Out. The same can’t be said of the fans of many other Euros participants. Do we think crowds in Baku and St. Petersberg will be quiet?
    Good. Shows why the footballers should keep standing up (by kneeling) for what they believe in.

    "Don't campaign against racism because the racists will object" is not a notion that anyone should consider for more than a few seconds.
    The problem isn’t the racists, of whom there are very few, it’s the huge number of not-racists objecting to being told that they are.
    But they're not being told they are, they're being told that some people are and footballers want to Kick It Out.
    They perceive that they’re all being called racists, and don’t like it one bit.

    Kick It Out was brilliant, they should stick to that - or come up with an inclusive, positive campaign as the NFL did.
    Kick It Out was a good start but players have for good reason even before the kneeling began been saying it didn't go far enough and that they were still experiencing too much racism. So should they just continue to be subject to racist abuse and do nothing about it?

    They have come up with an inclusive, positive campaign - they're kneeling before kick off for a moment as part of Kick It Out. Good for them. If someone has a better alternative let them bring it forwards, instead of booing.
    Many fans don’t think it’s inclusive and positive, they think it’s accusatory and divisive.

    The kneeling gesture is also associated with a wider political movement, with which many fans disagree.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,237

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    24 May? That was a silly promise then.
    2 months notice was more than enough time for something nasty to creep out of the woodwork.

    Can we outsource the whole process of government to Kate Bingham?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....I don't understand why that appears to have pissed off more people.

    Do they genuinely think that “re-educating” several million football fans is going to end positively for them, or do they not understand that the booing will just get louder?

    If we’re doing predictions, then by the middle of the Euros there will be ‘discussions’ about the pre-match gestures.

    Remember that the England fans now have a good reputation for fan behaviour in the stadium, thanks to Kick It Out. The same can’t be said of the fans of many other Euros participants. Do we think crowds in Baku and St. Petersberg will be quiet?
    Good. Shows why the footballers should keep standing up (by kneeling) for what they believe in.

    "Don't campaign against racism because the racists will object" is not a notion that anyone should consider for more than a few seconds.
    The problem isn’t the racists, of whom there are very few, it’s the huge number of not-racists objecting to being told that they are.
    But they're not being told they are, they're being told that some people are and footballers want to Kick It Out.
    They perceive that they’re all being called racists, and don’t like it one bit.

    Kick It Out was brilliant, they should stick to that - or come up with an inclusive, positive campaign as the NFL did.
    Kick It Out was a good start but players have for good reason even before the kneeling began been saying it didn't go far enough and that they were still experiencing too much racism. So should they just continue to be subject to racist abuse and do nothing about it?

    They have come up with an inclusive, positive campaign - they're kneeling before kick off for a moment as part of Kick It Out. Good for them. If someone has a better alternative let them bring it forwards, instead of booing.
    I'm afraid you are blind to the origin and associations of the chosen gesture to many. I think the situation now is tricky. I can see the need to participate if there is a majority vote by a team in favour of kneeling but it would be better if a new gesture was introduced in my opinion. I fear this is actually going to have negative impact on fighting racism.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    On the knee and England fans. If the knee was replaced with another empty gesture and the Kick It Out campaign the booing would stop overnight. The issue is the knee, that gesture is politically charged and accusatory. It is associated with people who hate whites and want to destroy this country's way of life and culture.

    A smarter manager would have changed the knee into a different gesture and BLM to Kick It Out.

    I think that's a crux of the debate. I had absolutely no idea that "the knee" was so politically charged and accusatory. I thought it came over from Kaepernick who started it I have no idea why something about racism I imagine, then was picked up by BLM (maybe?) again protesting about racism (and plenty more besides) and now we have the PL players taking the knee to protest about racism.

    When did taking the knee become as iconic and well known as a swastika in its layers of meaning and symbolism? I am pretty politically clued up (not that you'd know it from my posts tbf) and only see the knee as a symbol of anti-racism. Not of accusing others of racism. It is, to me, saying "we are fed up of racism".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
    Best advice? Keep it short, and very, very funny.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    MaxPB said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Don't get married and use the money on a nice holiday/car/whatever or deposit/one off payment for a house/mortgage.

    That's my advice.
    Or do what my wife and I did, have a small secret wedding that only immediate family and close friends are invited to. There were a total of 35 people at our wedding and 55 for the evening. None of my extended family were invited because there's about a billion of them.
    Yep, we did 50 people and it cost us about £4k all in. One of the advantages of living abroad.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,595
    MaxPB said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Don't get married and use the money on a nice holiday/car/whatever or deposit/one off payment for a house/mortgage.

    That's my advice.
    Or do what my wife and I did, have a small secret wedding that only immediate family and close friends are invited to. There were a total of 35 people at our wedding and 55 for the evening. None of my extended family were invited because there's about a billion of them.
    We were 40 in total. Wife's son the only family. Everyone said it was the best wedding ever.

    That it was at Le Manoir may have had something to do with that....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wants to see a surge in vaccinations in the region to combat the Delta variant.

    It would allow younger age groups to be vaccinated more quickly.

    But the problem is that supplies of the vaccines needed to do that – Pfizer and Moderna – are limited, according to government sources.

    There is currently thought to be a stockpile of more than five million vaccine doses, but they are almost entirely AstraZeneca, which is not being used for the under 40s.

    Currently about four million extra doses are being supplied by manufacturers. But most of this comes from the UK’s AstraZeneca plants. On average around 1.5 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna are being imported in each week.

    ---

    FFS...5 million doses sitting doing nothing...get them in arms.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Oops - quick follow up. I said I'd come to why I thought delaying Freedom Day might be the right decision for the wrong reason. While I implied what I thought the right reason was, I forgot to mention the wrong one.

    I'm far from convinced that Delta is that much more transmissable. it's notable that Bedford's vaccination rates are some way below the national average. We have to question whether the greater transmission of Delta is because of the virus or because of the people who have it. Are they acting differently from other parts of the country, or from those who don't? Are they following rules and guidance to the same extent - and so on? Are their vaccination rates the same, or higher, or lower, than the areas and groups not suffering outbreaks?

    The question underlying all this is why, when Delta is also found in other countries, has its outbreak in the UK grown far faster than elsewhere?

    Now, there are tricky issues surrounding the asking of these questions, which is why they probably won't be asked and are even less likely to be answered honestly and openly. All the same, I can't help but think that the governments assumptions about transmission are not looking at the whole picture and, hence, flawed.

    Still, as it turns out, it might be for the best.

    My guess/worry is that the UK seeded a large outbreak because we have lots of flights coming from India.

    So basically... other countries are going to get the same/larger surge in cases, just a bit later because they don't have as much travel from India, so it will take longer for the virus to become dominant for them.

    And those other countries are going to be hit very hard, because their vaccination rates are lower, and this variant seems to lead to more hospitalization.

    But that's not happening. I can well see your explanation being right as to why the UK had so many more Delta cases *to begin with* but it doesn't explain why Delta cases have grown so quickly here but not at anything like the same rate in other countries. As you say, given their lower vaccination rates, they should really have grown even faster if the higher R rate is as claimed.
    I think it is rising very fast in other countries, just from a much lower base, so it will take longer to show up in headline figures which are still dominated by other variants.

    In the US it is 6% of all cases -> but that will rise very quickly -> then it will become noticeable in the headline case numbers.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/06/08/1004597294/the-highly-contagious-delta-variant-of-covid-is-on-the-rise-in-the-u-s
    Also its possibly not comparing like-for-like. The UK has a test positivity rate of 0.6%, the USA one of 2.6% - many states are really not prioritising testing anymore like is happening here, so its quite possible the delta variant is on the rise there but just not even being detected due to an absence of testing.

    Especially if its spreading amongst people who get it relatively asymptomatically.
    It’s spreading in Canada

    ‘AHS has confirmed the Delta variant has spread inside Calgary’s Foothills Medical Centre. 16 patients on two units have been infected with B.1.617.2
    #COVID19AB

    My full story:’

    https://twitter.com/lauren_global/status/1402130536273891328?s=21
    But I thought it only spread in countries where the Prime Minister delayed quarantining Indians to get a trade deal? Surely you're not saying it was inevitable that it would spread everywhere that admitted any foreigners at all?
    Red-listing India would have slowed the spread -> would have bought us time to have vaccinated more people -> would have increased the likelihood restrictions can end on June 21st.

    This is all pretty obvious - suspect it's only partisan loyalty to Boris Johnson that stops people from getting this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656

    Ferdinand is another absolutely useless pundit. When they have Joe Cole, Ashely Cole and him together, with Lee Dixon on co-commentary, I feel my knowledge of the game and general IQ dropping through the floor.

    It's so amusing to see him and Scholes having to hold back about how disappointing their ex team mate who is currently manager of United is.
    We really need a revolution in pundits. All this talk of increasing diversity, how about increasing the quality. It is still the old boys (and now girls club) of you were a famous player, therefore you must know what you are talking about.

    But that a) doesn't mean they have the ability to disseminate this information and b) several years out of the game, it changes, it adapts.

    Having seen a talk by the analysts at Liverpool, the Fergie style throw your boots at players and scream and shout has been replaced by Machine Learning on big data, probability models, etc, which is then packaged up to players.
    Yeah, I mean Liverpool's analysts include someone with a degree in physics from Cambridge, someone else who has worked for NASA.

    The metrics they use now is out of this world, things like pre assists.
    A few years ago, I was staying in the same hotel as Red Bull Salzburg (another team famous for being ahead of the game on analytics). They were super friendly and I got to see a bit of what they get sent, was really interesting as a data monkey.

    Was quite amusing seeing them all there in the hotel bar the day before the game focused on their iPads having to complete all these quizzes / tests like school kids at after school club.
    Because I can only get prawn sandwich brigade tickets at Liverpool occasionally Klopp comes in and chats after the match.

    He is in awe of the analysts.

    He openly admits he was unsure on signing Salah but then the analyst guys persuaded him.

    Pointed out the way Mourinho used him at Chelsea really didn't show his talent but the way Klopp sets up his teams would, especially with Mane on the other side.

    Something like 20 gig of data was analysed for a signing of Salah's age.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    f this from the BBC's @NickTriggle is right, then it's Hypothesis 2.
    If 1.5m a week mRNA, then the apparent fall-back this week was an illusion - just down to the stopping of AZ.
    This would be the best news.


    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1402603963740995588?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    TOPPING said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
    Best advice? Keep it short, and very, very funny.
    Short is key, no one wants to listen to the best man ramble on about 7 different anecdotes about the groom (and bride). It's tedious. When I did my best man speech for my best mate is was about 3 minutes long, had some good genuine laughs in it and short enough that people paid attention to the whole thing. My best man gave a great speech, it was about 5 mins I think but he also introduced our first dance at the end of it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656
    TOPPING said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
    Best advice? Keep it short, and very, very funny.
    Yup, absolutely don't mock the bride, this is the day she's been waiting for a whole life.

    Really proud of this ending to one speech, everyone loved it/laughed out loud, well maybe not one person.

    'So I'm sure you'll join me in wishing Hannah and John a wonderful new life, starting with their honeymoon in the Seychelles, I've checked the weather forecast and Hannah it looks you'll be getting a good six inches each night, but since you're going with John, you'll get two inches every night.'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    This thread has been shut down like any debate of a lab leak....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,656

    NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    TOPPING said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
    Best advice? Keep it short, and very, very funny.
    You don’t even need to be hugely funny. Going third, after the groom and the bride’s father, both of whom are sure to have written out far more and enjoyed the spotlight well beyond the gathering’s patience, being brief and mildly amusing is normally more than enough the land the prize. Just be sure to cover off all the formalities, complimenting the bridesmaids, the necessary thanks, etc.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,671
    edited June 2021

    MaxPB said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Don't get married and use the money on a nice holiday/car/whatever or deposit/one off payment for a house/mortgage.

    That's my advice.
    Or do what my wife and I did, have a small secret wedding that only immediate family and close friends are invited to. There were a total of 35 people at our wedding and 55 for the evening. None of my extended family were invited because there's about a billion of them.
    We were 40 in total. Wife's son the only family. Everyone said it was the best wedding ever.

    That it was at Le Manoir may have had something to do with that....
    Only parents as guests and back to work in the afternoon here. It is only a legal document, after all...

    Might have had some sort of cake for lunch.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the knee and England fans. If the knee was replaced with another empty gesture and the Kick It Out campaign the booing would stop overnight. The issue is the knee, that gesture is politically charged and accusatory. It is associated with people who hate whites and want to destroy this country's way of life and culture.

    A smarter manager would have changed the knee into a different gesture and BLM to Kick It Out.

    I think that's a crux of the debate. I had absolutely no idea that "the knee" was so politically charged and accusatory. I thought it came over from Kaepernick who started it I have no idea why something about racism I imagine, then was picked up by BLM (maybe?) again protesting about racism (and plenty more besides) and now we have the PL players taking the knee to protest about racism.

    When did taking the knee become as iconic and well known as a swastika in its layers of meaning and symbolism? I am pretty politically clued up (not that you'd know it from my posts tbf) and only see the knee as a symbol of anti-racism. Not of accusing others of racism. It is, to me, saying "we are fed up of racism".
    Hmm, even among my white liberal friends they see that the knee is a pretty politically charged symbol because of the riots last summer.

    As I said, it would be interesting to see an alternate timeline from the next match where England footballers replace BLM and the knee with another campaign and gesture. I think the booing stops literally overnight.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    BBC belatedly picking up the gathering storm over weddings. First tearful bride. There will be thousands more.

    Remember that brides were promised a decision by government on 24 May. It temporised.

    One for the PB Wedding Experts to mull over.

    Supposed to be best man on 17 July, and I'm worried enough let alone the bride and groom. It's the hope that gets you.
    Is your speech ready?

    Speaking from personal experience, don't leave it to the last moment.
    Best advice? Keep it short, and very, very funny.
    Short is key, no one wants to listen to the best man ramble on about 7 different anecdotes about the groom (and bride). It's tedious. When I did my best man speech for my best mate is was about 3 minutes long, had some good genuine laughs in it and short enough that people paid attention to the whole thing. My best man gave a great speech, it was about 5 mins I think but he also introduced our first dance at the end of it.
    I once want to a wedding where the best man opened with a quip about loving a good wedding with the “swelling of the organ and the coming of the bride” and ending with the well worn double entendre about going to a Bangor. The groom hasn’t spoken to him since.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    edited June 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK’s vaccination programme has broken the link between infections, hospital admissions and deaths, and hospitals were reporting fewer and younger patients, according to a senior boss in the NHS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss

    To me, that's absolutely categoric evidence for opening on 21 June. Hopson has been among the most conservative figures in this pandemic. He is at the frontline. And he thinks it's all over.
    Yup, the people asking for extensions are just institutionalised by lockdown. They fear the freedom and change that comes with it. They're so used to this awful new normal that the can't see why the old way was better and are scared of that unknown quantity. I have no issue with that, those people are free to stay home and wear masks all the time. They shouldn't impose that on the rest of us who are happy to take that risk of going out and being free. Freedom necessarily has personal risks. The collective risk from COVID has been eliminated by vaccination.
    I have long admired your certainty about various topical issues, but you may want to reconsider or at least caveat the final sentence.
    Its already caveated by the word collective.

    There's a risk to some individuals that they might individually get sick, but there's no collective risk like there was in January or March 2020.
    I am not an expert on Covid-19, but I think we are some way from being able to say that the collective risk has been eliminated. I think we can say that the vaccines seem to work but there are still a lot of unknowns.
    No we are not any way from it. We are there.

    The vaccine rollout is complete in Groups 1 to 9, double-jabbed. There's nothing more to be done there. Yes there may be some antivaxxers but we could wait weeks, months or years they still won't be vaccinated if they're refusing it and don't change their minds.

    So if you think that we are collectively at risk then you need to please answer two questions:

    Firstly: Who are we collectively at risk from? Which JCVI groups for instance?
    Secondly: When will we cease to be at risk from them?

    If you can't answer those questions, the collective risk is gone as best as it can ever be.
    About 15-20% of ICU admissions were Phase 2 under the JCVI groups
    The majority were Groups 5-9. Assume they're downshifted by 60% (most in this group still need a short time before getting the plus-two-weeks protection), and Groups 1-4 are effectively nil.

    That would mean that any given infection level would give one third to one half of ICU admissions as before, with the skew being heavily younger.


    Hopefully these would progress through faster (albeit some with permanent health issues on discharge).

    That's where the risk comes from. The risk diminishes with every jab and with every day after second jab, which is where time does come into the equation. We don't know how great the risk will be, and can hope that Delta has already left it too late to race us to a serious issue, but it's not yet certain and that's where it can come from.
    Nicely described.

    The delta variant is estimated to be 2.6x more likely to lead to hospitalization -> that's another factor to consider. When you add in the increased transmissability -> that's how SAGE got to higher levels of hospital admissions I guess.
    Estimated by whom?
    Public Health England.
    (I think this link will work).
    2.6x increase in hospitalization, but 67% more likely for emergency -> I now notice. Technical briefing 14 on delta.

    https://t.co/QRUPd926sI?amp=1
    Hmmm... From that report....

    image

    and

    image

    While Delta is new enough, as they say for the CFR to be an underestimate, the other figures are interesting as well
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I think this is one of the best essays on the current culture wars that I've read: https://meanjin.com.au/essays/in-defence-of-the-bad-white-working-class/

    Brilliant.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK’s vaccination programme has broken the link between infections, hospital admissions and deaths, and hospitals were reporting fewer and younger patients, according to a senior boss in the NHS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss

    To me, that's absolutely categoric evidence for opening on 21 June. Hopson has been among the most conservative figures in this pandemic. He is at the frontline. And he thinks it's all over.
    Yup, the people asking for extensions are just institutionalised by lockdown. They fear the freedom and change that comes with it. They're so used to this awful new normal that the can't see why the old way was better and are scared of that unknown quantity. I have no issue with that, those people are free to stay home and wear masks all the time. They shouldn't impose that on the rest of us who are happy to take that risk of going out and being free. Freedom necessarily has personal risks. The collective risk from COVID has been eliminated by vaccination.
    I have long admired your certainty about various topical issues, but you may want to reconsider or at least caveat the final sentence.
    Its already caveated by the word collective.

    There's a risk to some individuals that they might individually get sick, but there's no collective risk like there was in January or March 2020.
    I am not an expert on Covid-19, but I think we are some way from being able to say that the collective risk has been eliminated. I think we can say that the vaccines seem to work but there are still a lot of unknowns.
    No we are not any way from it. We are there.

    The vaccine rollout is complete in Groups 1 to 9, double-jabbed. There's nothing more to be done there. Yes there may be some antivaxxers but we could wait weeks, months or years they still won't be vaccinated if they're refusing it and don't change their minds.

    So if you think that we are collectively at risk then you need to please answer two questions:

    Firstly: Who are we collectively at risk from? Which JCVI groups for instance?
    Secondly: When will we cease to be at risk from them?

    If you can't answer those questions, the collective risk is gone as best as it can ever be.
    About 15-20% of ICU admissions were Phase 2 under the JCVI groups
    The majority were Groups 5-9. Assume they're downshifted by 60% (most in this group still need a short time before getting the plus-two-weeks protection), and Groups 1-4 are effectively nil.

    That would mean that any given infection level would give one third to one half of ICU admissions as before, with the skew being heavily younger.


    Hopefully these would progress through faster (albeit some with permanent health issues on discharge).

    That's where the risk comes from. The risk diminishes with every jab and with every day after second jab, which is where time does come into the equation. We don't know how great the risk will be, and can hope that Delta has already left it too late to race us to a serious issue, but it's not yet certain and that's where it can come from.
    Nicely described.

    The delta variant is estimated to be 2.6x more likely to lead to hospitalization -> that's another factor to consider. When you add in the increased transmissability -> that's how SAGE got to higher levels of hospital admissions I guess.
    Estimated by whom?
    Public Health England.
    (I think this link will work).
    2.6x increase in hospitalization, but 67% more likely for emergency -> I now notice. Technical briefing 14 on delta.

    https://t.co/QRUPd926sI?amp=1
    Hmmm... From that report....

    image

    and

    image

    While Delta is new enough, as they say for the CFR to be an underestimate, the other figures are interesting as well
    Not sure those crude figures are very interesting actually -> the more interesting thing is when you adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, vaccination status etc. as they did in their Cox regression....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,348
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK’s vaccination programme has broken the link between infections, hospital admissions and deaths, and hospitals were reporting fewer and younger patients, according to a senior boss in the NHS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss

    To me, that's absolutely categoric evidence for opening on 21 June. Hopson has been among the most conservative figures in this pandemic. He is at the frontline. And he thinks it's all over.
    Yup, the people asking for extensions are just institutionalised by lockdown. They fear the freedom and change that comes with it. They're so used to this awful new normal that the can't see why the old way was better and are scared of that unknown quantity. I have no issue with that, those people are free to stay home and wear masks all the time. They shouldn't impose that on the rest of us who are happy to take that risk of going out and being free. Freedom necessarily has personal risks. The collective risk from COVID has been eliminated by vaccination.
    I have long admired your certainty about various topical issues, but you may want to reconsider or at least caveat the final sentence.
    Its already caveated by the word collective.

    There's a risk to some individuals that they might individually get sick, but there's no collective risk like there was in January or March 2020.
    I am not an expert on Covid-19, but I think we are some way from being able to say that the collective risk has been eliminated. I think we can say that the vaccines seem to work but there are still a lot of unknowns.
    No we are not any way from it. We are there.

    The vaccine rollout is complete in Groups 1 to 9, double-jabbed. There's nothing more to be done there. Yes there may be some antivaxxers but we could wait weeks, months or years they still won't be vaccinated if they're refusing it and don't change their minds.

    So if you think that we are collectively at risk then you need to please answer two questions:

    Firstly: Who are we collectively at risk from? Which JCVI groups for instance?
    Secondly: When will we cease to be at risk from them?

    If you can't answer those questions, the collective risk is gone as best as it can ever be.
    About 15-20% of ICU admissions were Phase 2 under the JCVI groups
    The majority were Groups 5-9. Assume they're downshifted by 60% (most in this group still need a short time before getting the plus-two-weeks protection), and Groups 1-4 are effectively nil.

    That would mean that any given infection level would give one third to one half of ICU admissions as before, with the skew being heavily younger.


    Hopefully these would progress through faster (albeit some with permanent health issues on discharge).

    That's where the risk comes from. The risk diminishes with every jab and with every day after second jab, which is where time does come into the equation. We don't know how great the risk will be, and can hope that Delta has already left it too late to race us to a serious issue, but it's not yet certain and that's where it can come from.
    Nicely described.

    The delta variant is estimated to be 2.6x more likely to lead to hospitalization -> that's another factor to consider. When you add in the increased transmissability -> that's how SAGE got to higher levels of hospital admissions I guess.
    Estimated by whom?
    Public Health England.
    (I think this link will work).
    2.6x increase in hospitalization, but 67% more likely for emergency -> I now notice. Technical briefing 14 on delta.

    https://t.co/QRUPd926sI?amp=1
    Hmmm... From that report....

    image

    and

    image

    While Delta is new enough, as they say for the CFR to be an underestimate, the other figures are interesting as well
    Not sure those crude figures are very interesting actually -> the more interesting thing is when you adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, vaccination status etc. as they did in their Cox regression....
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK’s vaccination programme has broken the link between infections, hospital admissions and deaths, and hospitals were reporting fewer and younger patients, according to a senior boss in the NHS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss

    To me, that's absolutely categoric evidence for opening on 21 June. Hopson has been among the most conservative figures in this pandemic. He is at the frontline. And he thinks it's all over.
    Yup, the people asking for extensions are just institutionalised by lockdown. They fear the freedom and change that comes with it. They're so used to this awful new normal that the can't see why the old way was better and are scared of that unknown quantity. I have no issue with that, those people are free to stay home and wear masks all the time. They shouldn't impose that on the rest of us who are happy to take that risk of going out and being free. Freedom necessarily has personal risks. The collective risk from COVID has been eliminated by vaccination.
    I have long admired your certainty about various topical issues, but you may want to reconsider or at least caveat the final sentence.
    Its already caveated by the word collective.

    There's a risk to some individuals that they might individually get sick, but there's no collective risk like there was in January or March 2020.
    I am not an expert on Covid-19, but I think we are some way from being able to say that the collective risk has been eliminated. I think we can say that the vaccines seem to work but there are still a lot of unknowns.
    No we are not any way from it. We are there.

    The vaccine rollout is complete in Groups 1 to 9, double-jabbed. There's nothing more to be done there. Yes there may be some antivaxxers but we could wait weeks, months or years they still won't be vaccinated if they're refusing it and don't change their minds.

    So if you think that we are collectively at risk then you need to please answer two questions:

    Firstly: Who are we collectively at risk from? Which JCVI groups for instance?
    Secondly: When will we cease to be at risk from them?

    If you can't answer those questions, the collective risk is gone as best as it can ever be.
    About 15-20% of ICU admissions were Phase 2 under the JCVI groups
    The majority were Groups 5-9. Assume they're downshifted by 60% (most in this group still need a short time before getting the plus-two-weeks protection), and Groups 1-4 are effectively nil.

    That would mean that any given infection level would give one third to one half of ICU admissions as before, with the skew being heavily younger.


    Hopefully these would progress through faster (albeit some with permanent health issues on discharge).

    That's where the risk comes from. The risk diminishes with every jab and with every day after second jab, which is where time does come into the equation. We don't know how great the risk will be, and can hope that Delta has already left it too late to race us to a serious issue, but it's not yet certain and that's where it can come from.
    Nicely described.

    The delta variant is estimated to be 2.6x more likely to lead to hospitalization -> that's another factor to consider. When you add in the increased transmissability -> that's how SAGE got to higher levels of hospital admissions I guess.
    Estimated by whom?
    Public Health England.
    (I think this link will work).
    2.6x increase in hospitalization, but 67% more likely for emergency -> I now notice. Technical briefing 14 on delta.

    https://t.co/QRUPd926sI?amp=1
    Hmmm... From that report....

    image

    and

    image

    While Delta is new enough, as they say for the CFR to be an underestimate, the other figures are interesting as well
    Not sure those crude figures are very interesting actually -> the more interesting thing is when you adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, vaccination status etc. as they did in their Cox regression....
    The question is

    1) Alpha (etc) vs unvaccinated
    2) Delta vs unvaccinated
    3) Alpha (etc) vs vaccinated
    4) Delta vs vaccinated

    I *think*, having briefly read the report, what the conclusion is talking about is 3 vs 4

    That can still mean that 3 & 4 are vastly better than 1 & 2

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    England 109,068 / 252,697
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    edited June 2021
    maaarsh said:

    MattW said:

    I'm not a Boomer but I must say I'm increasing concerned by the use of Boomer as a derogatory term for those over 65 years old.

    As other forms of prejudice recede this one seems to be increasingly acceptable; it's not one I'm comfortable with.

    Basically agree, Driven I think initially by politicos / campaigners trying to create an audience and introduced notions such as "intergenerational theft".

    We see it on PB quite regularly in the 'most selfish generation ever' gibes for pensioners who have gained about £10 a week from a decade of the Triple Lock, and so on.
    Anyone making comments on a specific individual because of a group membership they had no choice over is a muppet. That doesn't mean we can't assess fairness between different age groups even though there will be millions of exceptions on both sides.

    The current generation of pensioners, on average, have consumed far more wealth than they have created in a way which will no longer be possible for future generations. That doesn't stop many of them being in poverty, but on average that cohort has had a very 'good' rub of the green.
    Evidence for the last para? In particular the "consumed far more wealth than they created"?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,346
    Leon said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....

    England will flub the euros, and this will be one reason. A team that antagonises some of its fans never prospers
    Bunch of overpaid fannies
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,346

    Leon said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....

    England will flub the euros, and this will be one reason. A team that antagonises some of its fans never prospers
    England will flub the euros because Mr Waistcoast is very negative manager, won't pick the world class attacking talent, while England have a very leaky defence that will always concede against good teams.

    But all of this really isn't helping. Any objections to the act is now being dismissed as the thick racists, and I am sure there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but don't think they should still be taking the knee, thinking hold on I'm been called a thick racist. Just like Brexit....thick racists voted for Brexit, not all people who voted Brexit are thick racists.
    You're right there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but there are a lot of thick racists that are.

    Should the thick racists who are booing, who have been causing upset to footballers for years, which is precisely why footballers are doing this be called out or not?

    Saying you shouldn't call out the thick racists, because others might object, is an odd logic.
    No it has dissolved into an argument of, if your against this action, you are a thick racist....you need to be re-educated.

    The media types have given up on any attempts at persuasive language of we understand some people object to the gesture, they see it linked to an organisation they don't agree with, etc. It is now thick racists.

    It is the same as Brexit.
    Because they are thick racists. 🤷‍♂️

    Its a gesture against racism. Its not linked to any organisation. If you're objecting to a gesture against racism then that shows why the gesture is necessary and long may it continue.
    But people see that it is (in their opinion).

    That is why the NFL doesn't do this. They found a middle ground that nobody complains about.
    We're not American and we're not the NFL.

    If footballers want to kneel against racism then good for them and they should continue to do so until the message gets through that racism is unacceptable and nobody objects and everyone gets bored of it.

    The fact people are booing against kneeling against racism shows why this is necessary and should continue and maybe be stepped up a gear.
    When I read your first sentence I thought you were going to argue against kneeling... This has all gone off at half cock hasn't it. In a thought experiment I would go along with a majority vote to kneel or not kneel if I was in a team but would vote to replace the gesture.
    I think it is a bollox gesture , stupid imported American crap that achieves nothing and just polarises the topic. For me in any thought experiment I would not be sheeplike and just follow the majority, I would be doing what I thought was right thing to do.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,346
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the knee and England fans. If the knee was replaced with another empty gesture and the Kick It Out campaign the booing would stop overnight. The issue is the knee, that gesture is politically charged and accusatory. It is associated with people who hate whites and want to destroy this country's way of life and culture.

    A smarter manager would have changed the knee into a different gesture and BLM to Kick It Out.

    I think that's a crux of the debate. I had absolutely no idea that "the knee" was so politically charged and accusatory. I thought it came over from Kaepernick who started it I have no idea why something about racism I imagine, then was picked up by BLM (maybe?) again protesting about racism (and plenty more besides) and now we have the PL players taking the knee to protest about racism.

    When did taking the knee become as iconic and well known as a swastika in its layers of meaning and symbolism? I am pretty politically clued up (not that you'd know it from my posts tbf) and only see the knee as a symbol of anti-racism. Not of accusing others of racism. It is, to me, saying "we are fed up of racism".
    It is just virtue signalling from people wanting to fit in with latest fad, it is doing and will do nothing to help against racism. The FA and clubs should do something real like deduct points , ban spectators where it happens and that would be a positive step, encourage clubs to really do something and same for real fans to point out the racists so they get banned and let people get on with the game.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The people booing England players 'taking a knee' are an "ignorant minority" who need "educating", says former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

    "They are part of the problem. These people need to be educated. I think half of them don't even know what they're booing for."

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57411472

    The rhetoric is building. This is Brexit all over again, your a thick knuckle dragging racist....

    England will flub the euros, and this will be one reason. A team that antagonises some of its fans never prospers
    England will flub the euros because Mr Waistcoast is very negative manager, won't pick the world class attacking talent, while England have a very leaky defence that will always concede against good teams.

    But all of this really isn't helping. Any objections to the act is now being dismissed as the thick racists, and I am sure there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but don't think they should still be taking the knee, thinking hold on I'm been called a thick racist. Just like Brexit....thick racists voted for Brexit, not all people who voted Brexit are thick racists.
    You're right there are a lot of fans who aren't booing, but there are a lot of thick racists that are.

    Should the thick racists who are booing, who have been causing upset to footballers for years, which is precisely why footballers are doing this be called out or not?

    Saying you shouldn't call out the thick racists, because others might object, is an odd logic.
    No it has dissolved into an argument of, if your against this action, you are a thick racist....you need to be re-educated.

    The media types have given up on any attempts at persuasive language of we understand some people object to the gesture, they see it linked to an organisation they don't agree with, etc. It is now thick racists.

    It is the same as Brexit.
    Because they are thick racists. 🤷‍♂️

    Its a gesture against racism. Its not linked to any organisation. If you're objecting to a gesture against racism then that shows why the gesture is necessary and long may it continue.
    But people see that it is (in their opinion).

    That is why the NFL doesn't do this. They found a middle ground that nobody complains about.
    We're not American and we're not the NFL.

    If footballers want to kneel against racism then good for them and they should continue to do so until the message gets through that racism is unacceptable and nobody objects and everyone gets bored of it.

    The fact people are booing against kneeling against racism shows why this is necessary and should continue and maybe be stepped up a gear.
    Christ on a fucking bike, Philip. People aren't complaining about footballers not being racist. They're complaining about all the other things that go with this specific gesture - not least the implication that football fans are racist.
    There are a lot of things that are wrong with the world. Why has sport death focus on highlighting just this particular issue? Why now?
    It's nothing but another front in the culture war.
    Why?

    Because footballers are at the thick end of abuse from thick racists and are fed up of it.

    Good for them. What about that do you object to?
    Look, I don't want to be the sort of person who escalates things ridiculously quickly, but are you being deliberately obtuse? The knee is not simply 'we don't like racism. Because that's so obvious it doesn't need saying. It's very specifically associated with BLM. With defend the police. With bring down capitalism. With white lives don't matter. With the language of critical race theory. It is to many, a deeply divisive gesture of emphasising our racial differences and our political differences.
    It is, frankly, bullshit. And if England now stand by these values then they can, frankly, fuck off.
  • Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Totally off-topical taste.


    I'm down to London next week for a couple of days - for the first time in over 15 months. (An in-the-room meeting with the animators for the first time.) Dinner booked at Hide.

    Is there anything on that is must-see at the mo?

    I'd enjoy a report on Hide.

    To each their own, of course. I love my fine dining, but judging by the pics I might privately go Jeremy Clarkson on them.

    To me the presentation has a for-instagram feel to it - like the shift from 'stripped out scandi' to 'urban hipster with textures' we have seen in interior decor over the last few years.



    Frankly I would punch someone in the face who served me such pretentious shite.
    Have you been there and done that ?
    I was once taken into a restaurant in Strasbourg (iirc) for a dinner meeting where I saw plates with such rubbish on. I walked out. Food is for eating. It is for sustenance, not for some clown to tell you how clever he is whilst picking your pocket.

    I guess it wasn’t an important meeting then?
    A person trying to get me to support something. I told the bloke to make an appointment at my office. If he had made the effort to check me out he would have realised I am not impressed with that sort of thing.
    Someone who does not pay attention to that level of detail is not really doing their job.

  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Totally off-topical taste.


    I'm down to London next week for a couple of days - for the first time in over 15 months. (An in-the-room meeting with the animators for the first time.) Dinner booked at Hide.

    Is there anything on that is must-see at the mo?

    I'd enjoy a report on Hide.

    To each their own, of course. I love my fine dining, but judging by the pics I might privately go Jeremy Clarkson on them.

    To me the presentation has a for-instagram feel to it - like the shift from 'stripped out scandi' to 'urban hipster with textures' we have seen in interior decor over the last few years.



    Frankly I would punch someone in the face who served me such pretentious shite.
    Have you been there and done that ?
    I was once taken into a restaurant in Strasbourg (iirc) for a dinner meeting where I saw plates with such rubbish on. I walked out. Food is for eating. It is for sustenance, not for some clown to tell you how clever he is whilst picking your pocket.

    It was only relatively recently that I worked out that "fine dining" is a euphemism for "tiny portions".
    The sort of place where you spend £100 a head on food, yet leave feeling hungry.
    I have retired now so I doubt I could afford it nowadays.
    And I grow a lot of my own food which, frankly, is better.
This discussion has been closed.