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Tory elections expert Lord Hayward reckons that new boundaries give a 5-10 seat bonus to his party –

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Read that article on Lab Theory. It's absolutely compelling. I've always had it down as plausible but from that I'd put it down as highly probable now. It's much, much more likely that a poorly secured lab researching SARS like viruses was the source of this than a wet market.

    The shut down of their database server in September 2019 feels like the biggest tell. I suspect it leaked in September 2019 and then it took a couple of months to seed into the general population. That's an admission of guilt.

    Which article?

    Genuinely curious. I've been alerting friends and family to the lab leak hypothesis, and it is interesting which evidence acts like the Red Pill
    The Newsweek one you posted just now. It's really interesting. I posted it in my uni WhatsApp group which is mostly chemistry and biochemistry graduates and most of them are convinced too.
    Yeah, that's a brilliant article

    That and the Nicholas Wade one in the Bulletin (linked below) should persuade anyone with an IQ in double figures, or higher, that the Lab Leak Hypothesis is seriously persuasive (if not absolutely convincing, yet - and may never be)

    A small positive is the role of citizen journalists, like DRASTIC. Thanks to the internet the rich and powerful cannot be almighty gatekeepers of information, not any more. It leaks out, like viruses from a BSL-2 lab. Even China has suffered from this, as the Newsweek article makes clear. Wuhan put its data online. Oops
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    We have to, I'm afraid.

    Some things are more important than a quick buck.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    MattW said:

    @Charles, could I possibly pick your brains? Would you happen to have any advice for a charity wanting to adopt an ESG policy for its investments?

    If you'd be willing, could I pm you?

    (If any other PB'ers are knowledgeable on this topic the same question applies!)

    --AS

    If you are after resources, I have been involved a little with a group called the Ecumenical Council for Corporate Responsibility, which has its roots in a project by an Industrial Chaplain in the late 1980s.

    They were early on Ethical Investment. Their first substantial piece of work I saw was in the early 1990s, and I think was a study of one of the big oil companies. Good as brain food, and for wider awareness.

    Probably worth a contact, as they will all sorts of members and associates in smallish organisations.

    https://www.eccr.org.uk/

    And the Church Commissioners have been in the game as long, but do things on a slightly different scale.
    That would be an ecumenical matter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    True but uninteresting
    But it is at the heart of the justification for a “cover up” (if it happened). If Trump had actually been interested in working with his intelligence agencies/scientists/whatever rather than seeing all of them as part of a massive conspiracy out to get him, then they would have been more relaxed about such theories being explored publicly, rather than need shutting down.
    Bollocks

    Trump was an odious madman, but the lab leak hypothesis was clearly plausible, and clearly needed investigating, from the get go. Blaming Trump is a feeble excuse advanced by people who are embarrassed by their earlier errors, or, worse, incriminated in the cover-up


    PS: a cover up DEFINITELY happened. Read this entirely convincing Vanity Fair piece (or many many others)

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
    Who cares man?
    Yeah, you're right, 10 million dead, the world economy in turmoil, who cares how it happened, it's like Chernobyl, best forgotten, pass the crystal meth, ta
    No point @Leon even though you are right. The fact is this would potentially exonerate Trump. Given that, very few people here will have very little interest in acknowledging it.
    LOL.

    It won't exonerate Trump, he screwed up the response to Covid-19 which explains all those deaths in America.

    Lab leak or natural coronavirus doesn't change his response.
    I'm not talking about his wider response, I'm talking about his view that this could have been a leak from a lab.

    As I said to @Gallowgate there were a fair few people on here who were openly mocking it, saying it was garbage etc etc. Now, in a normal circumstance, such people would be accepting that they might have been wrong or, at least, too hasty to discount the theory.
    Who was openly mocking it? No one that I recall.
    A lot. It was seem as evidence of his Sinophobia, attempts to cover the blame etc etc.
    There was mockery on here as late as ten days ago

    I linked to this absolutely seminal article by Nicholas Wade in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/


    One of the "boffins" on here chortled away, Oh do tell us what The Bulletin has to say, "is it a doomsday weapon, are we close to a meltdown" etc etc. The implication being that the article must be nonsense, because it wasn't published in a regular medico-science journal like, ooh, The Lancet

    Thus entirely missing the fucking point: that many of the mainstream science journals are part of the damn cover-up, and refuse to publish ANYTHING in support of the lab leak hypothesis, unless you put their testicles in a vice - that's if they have testicles which haven't been stolen and sauteed by China

    This ugly journalistic censorship is ably described here:

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/beijings-useful-idiots/
    Well, that underground journal the Guardian did a podcast on it last week.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/jun/03/the-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-podcast

    Their conclusion: lab leak remains a possibility and probably shouldn't have been so readily dismissed.
    Yeah, last WEEK. I was banging on about the lab last YEAR

    Ah well. A prophet without honour etc etc

    ALIENS!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Foxy said:

    A straw poll. How many PBers had a portrait of HM up in their Common Room, Students Union or Staff Canteen?

    My Medical School didn't.

    Send her victorious


    Ah the woman whose palace had an actual don't hire ethnic minorities policy and is exempt from equalities legislation.

    She should be cancelled.
    Meh. Your trolling on the monarchy is water off a duck's back now. You try too hard.

    Gentle hint: try being less predictable, and funnier?
    It is not trolling it is fact.

    Just imagine if she had a no Jews policy.
    Still poor. In fact, even worse.

    You're much better on other subjects.
    So you're ok with the racist hiring policies of the palace?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/02/buckingham-palace-banned-ethnic-minorities-from-office-roles-papers-reveal
    Policies in *1968* not today
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Too racist for the Tele? Will GB News have her? Though that Mickey Mouse on Helium voice is not designed for broadcasting of any sort.

    https://twitter.com/nadine_writes/status/1402292181222756361?s=21

    Typically woke media cancelling the innocent.
    Why is saying they missed an opportunity to call the kid “Georgiana Floydia” racist? It’s tasteless and unfunny, yes, but poking fun at the parent’s not the kid.

    Referring to her as “it” is poor drafting
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,761

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    I think we all should be concerned that a push back of a month or so will then lead to calls to keep going with it to "avoid an autumn spike just when the NHS can't cope".

    There is no evidence that I have seen that the NHS cannot cope with the current summer surge if that is what we are seeing. Hopgood from NHS providers said this the other day.

    There's too much modelling not enough dealing with real world data.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    We have to, I'm afraid.

    Some things are more important than a quick buck.
    I said on another thread, that there was truth in Kruschev's argument that a capitalist will sell you the rope with which to hang him.

    That seems to be the attitude of many WRT China. People like Jacinda Ahern will stick their head up the colon of the Chinese Premier in return for cheap stuff. Sometimes you have to display a bit of backbone, even if it makes a marginal difference to GDP per head.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    “Flat”


    You do seem to enjoy playing the role of the Grim Reaper, telling us all that we're doomed, doomed, I tell ye.
    It’s clearly nowhere near as bad as the autumn and those graphs apply to the NW hotspot only. Is there a graph comparing the whole UK to the autumn wave?
    Yes. See the full thread from the FT guy:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351627445620738
    So, the data imply that the link between case numbers, hospital admissions, and deaths has been broken, as far as I can see.
    My guess is the Government will go for first vaccine for all those over 18 years old + 3 weeks, and then reopen with some regional variations in rules.

    Probably points to 2nd week of July.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because cows produce methane which is bad for the environment, so eating cows is good for dealing with climate change.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    The problem with this kind of thinking is that we're always waiting for the next milestone. If it's not second doses for over 50s then it's first doses for over 18s, then it's second doses for over 30s, then first doses for 12-17, then it's booster shots for all over 50s and then we're into winter with a possible NHS meltdown which takes us into 2022.

    We just have to rip the plaster off and deal with the consequences as they come. Over 50s are vaccinated to a very high degree. Groups 1-9 will be effectively completed in 4 days. The last few will reach full immunity from two doses by the 24th of June before the weekend after freedom day.

    We can't flunk this. It's rule by SAGE and we need Steve Baker and Charles Walker to clear the lot of them out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    5 weeks gets us to the school summer holidays, which tends to take a bite out of viral spread anyway. Not dignified, but if that's the nemesis to follow the hubris of April/May, it's really not too bad.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Agreed - probably the likeliest team to win. But that was also the expected outcome in 2016.

    England to go close but I suspect we will fall just short.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because cows produce methane which is bad for the environment, so eating cows is good for dealing with climate change.
    Pangolins don't fart? You learn something new everyday
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,205

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because cows produce methane which is bad for the environment, so eating cows is good for dealing with climate change.
    Very good :smile:
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because cows produce methane which is bad for the environment, so eating cows is good for dealing with climate change.
    Pangolins don't fart? You learn something new everyday
    They do but they don't produce the level of methane that cows do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375
    What is achieved by delaying an end to restrictions? Plainly, the NHS is not about to be overwhelmed, which could be the only justification for restrictions.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    Quite a few more unfortunately - cases are rapidly accelerating in NW and beginning to do so in other areas eg London, government will seek to buy time for further vaccination progress.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because cows produce methane which is bad for the environment, so eating cows is good for dealing with climate change.
    Pangolins don't fart? You learn something new everyday
    They do but they don't produce the level of methane that cows do.
    Source for that? It needs to analyse methane produced per kg of creature though no hiding behind cows produce more methane because they are bigger
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    5 weeks gets us to the school summer holidays, which tends to take a bite out of viral spread anyway. Not dignified, but if that's the nemesis to follow the hubris of April/May, it's really not too bad.
    Which is why I think it might be 5 weeks rather than 4. So some reduction in exposure due to school holidays in August to offset increase due to further relaxations. Hopefully by end Aug good progress in double vaccination down to 30s or even 20s.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    IIRC one of the theory variants as espoused on here was that a lab worker sold an experimented on bat in the wet market.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    I have travelled widely in Africa, done many safaris, and seen every major species except the African Hunting Dog - and the Pangolin.

    China's depredations are so bad I have encountered middle aged African safari guides who have seen EVERYTHING - yet have never seen a pangolin. It has become the ultimate prize, they all yearn to spot one

    Fucking tragic.

    China, pangolin steaks won't give you an erection. Stop eating them. Thanks

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    Quite a few more unfortunately - cases are rapidly accelerating in NW and beginning to do so in other areas eg London, government will seek to buy time for further vaccination progress.
    They really are not. This is starting at phanthoms.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375

    I can't understand people attacking the Queen. It doesn't matter if you support the monarchy or not, the woman has served the country for her entire life and despite her very advanced age continues to do so.

    Whatever other horrors and oddities there may be in the palace or the family, don't have a pop at her. She's bloody marvellous.


    Some people think she is Satan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    This sounds like a Daily Mash story but this is true.

    Northern dad 'needs therapy' after being charged £54 for fish and chips in London

    Gareth Jones tweeted about his dad's reaction.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/northern-dad-gobsmacked-after-being-20762203
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    Quite a few more unfortunately - cases are rapidly accelerating in NW and beginning to do so in other areas eg London, government will seek to buy time for further vaccination progress.
    But specifically who? Young people? We know that's not an issue. Old people? Vaccines give at least a 99% cumulative reduction in hospitalisations after two doses and groups 1-9 will be complete in 4 days.

    We're left with vaccine refusers, and we know from previous announcements by the government that vaccine refusers are the largest cohort now presenting with severe symptoms. What exactly is 4-5 weeks of additional lockdown going to achieve? Will those people who refused magically be convinced to take it in that time? Will they be forcibly jabbed? What are you proposing to convince these people to take the vaccine and how would even get it done in that short period of time

    No, the answer is "unfortunately people are going to die of COVID and people who have refused the vaccine will die at a much higher rate than those who have taken it. The country can no longer put life on hold now that 90% of vulnerable people have received both doses of the vaccine and we must learn to live normally again".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    On why the Lab Theory is so important - if the virus was initially seeded in September 2019 as the database shutdown implies a warning to the rest of the world would have got the Jenner institute, BioNTech, Janssen, Moderna and Novavax working on vaccines immediately. The starting gun for vaccines would have been fired four months earlier and human trials would have been commenced during the first wave. We would have had our vaccines in June, not December. We'd have completed our vaccine programme well before Christmas 2020 and we'd be back to normal with vaccines being produced in record volumes for the developing world too.

    As it is we're playing catch up because China covered it all up and seeded the virus all over the world by keeping flights out of Wuhan open for months.

    It also explains all those weird flu stories in Italy in nov 19
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
    Trying to judge China is like trying to judge the British Empire. It just is what it is. There are massive extremes of good and evil in it. It is beyond our ability to control how it develops.

    The main point about China is that they get things done, which we seem to spectacularly fail at. The main lesson we should take from looking at China is to dump the woke stuff, stop having nervous breakdowns about things that happened generations ago, be a bit more confident about things we do well, of which there are many.


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,761
    Sean_F said:

    What is achieved by delaying an end to restrictions? Plainly, the NHS is not about to be overwhelmed, which could be the only justification for restrictions.

    Exactly.

    The NHS was the justification for the winter lockdown. We've done that now.

    Even the head of NHS providers says it doesn't need protecting at the moment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021
    According to that FT article the hotspots are Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, Harrow, and Leicester.

    So seems logical that Indian travel is to blame.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    Sean_F said:

    I can't understand people attacking the Queen. It doesn't matter if you support the monarchy or not, the woman has served the country for her entire life and despite her very advanced age continues to do so.

    Whatever other horrors and oddities there may be in the palace or the family, don't have a pop at her. She's bloody marvellous.


    Some people think she is Satan.
    All Nazis are the embodiment of Satan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33578174
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    True but uninteresting
    But it is at the heart of the justification for a “cover up” (if it happened). If Trump had actually been interested in working with his intelligence agencies/scientists/whatever rather than seeing all of them as part of a massive conspiracy out to get him, then they would have been more relaxed about such theories being explored publicly, rather than need shutting down.
    Bollocks

    Trump was an odious madman, but the lab leak hypothesis was clearly plausible, and clearly needed investigating, from the get go. Blaming Trump is a feeble excuse advanced by people who are embarrassed by their earlier errors, or, worse, incriminated in the cover-up


    PS: a cover up DEFINITELY happened. Read this entirely convincing Vanity Fair piece (or many many others)

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
    Who cares man?
    Yeah, you're right, 10 million dead, the world economy in turmoil, who cares how it happened, it's like Chernobyl, best forgotten, pass the crystal meth, ta
    No point @Leon even though you are right. The fact is this would potentially exonerate Trump. Given that, very few people here will have very little interest in acknowledging it.
    LOL.

    It won't exonerate Trump, he screwed up the response to Covid-19 which explains all those deaths in America.

    Lab leak or natural coronavirus doesn't change his response.
    I'm not talking about his wider response, I'm talking about his view that this could have been a leak from a lab.

    As I said to @Gallowgate there were a fair few people on here who were openly mocking it, saying it was garbage etc etc. Now, in a normal circumstance, such people would be accepting that they might have been wrong or, at least, too hasty to discount the theory.
    Who was openly mocking it? No one that I recall.
    A lot. It was seem as evidence of his Sinophobia, attempts to cover the blame etc etc.
    There was mockery on here as late as ten days ago

    I linked to this absolutely seminal article by Nicholas Wade in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/


    One of the "boffins" on here chortled away, Oh do tell us what The Bulletin has to say, "is it a doomsday weapon, are we close to a meltdown" etc etc. The implication being that the article must be nonsense, because it wasn't published in a regular medico-science journal like, ooh, The Lancet

    Thus entirely missing the fucking point: that many of the mainstream science journals are part of the damn cover-up, and refuse to publish ANYTHING in support of the lab leak hypothesis, unless you put their testicles in a vice - that's if they have testicles which haven't been stolen and sauteed by China

    This ugly journalistic censorship is ably described here:

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/beijings-useful-idiots/
    I’d never heard of the Bulletin. Only read the article because @TimT said it was a serious magazine. Good article too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657

    According to that FT article the hotspots are Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, Harrow, and Leicester.

    So seems logical that Indian travel is to blame.

    Look on the bright side, the Indian cricket team will soon be over for the summer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    We have to, I'm afraid.

    Some things are more important than a quick buck.
    I said on another thread, that there was truth in Kruschev's argument that a capitalist will sell you the rope with which to hang him.

    That seems to be the attitude of many WRT China. People like Jacinda Ahern will stick their head up the colon of the Chinese Premier in return for cheap stuff. Sometimes you have to display a bit of backbone, even if it makes a marginal difference to GDP per head.
    I think it highlights well my fundamental issue with Woke: it's all about individuals being seen to support the right thing and sanctimoniously preaching at others whilst cravenly ducking that which really matters.

    It shows such little integrity, whilst being thoroughly self-absorbed at the same time, and I have a sort of basic contempt for that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    IIRC one of the theory variants as espoused on here was that a lab worker sold an experimented on bat in the wet market.
    An early theory, but ignored now. We know the first cases did not occur at the market

    I would look at the Wuhan CDC (an adjunct of the Wuhan main lab). The CDC is just BSL-2 = lab coats and masks, not hazmats and robots. The CDC is much nearer the market.

    Rough guess: there was an accident at the Wuhan CDC, it infected a few people, some were asymptomatic, it spread around Wuhan. Someone without symptoms went to the market (as you would) and they were a super-spreader. A humid Chinese wet market IS an ideal place to spread this virus
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375
    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
  • Charles said:

    @Charles, could I possibly pick your brains? Would you happen to have any advice for a charity wanting to adopt an ESG policy for its investments?

    If you'd be willing, could I pm you?

    (If any other PB'ers are knowledgeable on this topic the same question applies!)

    --AS

    Sure happy to share thoughts.
    Thanks v much, I have sent a pm. And if I don't reply tonight, it will be because I fell asleep!

    --AS
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
    Trying to judge China is like trying to judge the British Empire. It just is what it is. There are massive extremes of good and evil in it. It is beyond our ability to control how it develops.

    The main point about China is that they get things done, which we seem to spectacularly fail at. The main lesson we should take from looking at China is to dump the woke stuff, stop having nervous breakdowns about things that happened generations ago, be a bit more confident about things we do well, of which there are many.


    This is China that massively cracks down on free speech yeah?

    Love the through line consistency there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    This sounds like a Daily Mash story but this is true.

    Northern dad 'needs therapy' after being charged £54 for fish and chips in London

    Gareth Jones tweeted about his dad's reaction.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/northern-dad-gobsmacked-after-being-20762203

    To be fair, it was 4 portions, delivered. There's always someone daft and lazy enough.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,218
    edited June 2021

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm slightly sceptical that the boundary changes give the Cons sny immediate advantage. They have a lot of first-term MPs whose incumbency they are failing to maximise by implementing boundary changes now. Tactically, the time to implement boundary changes is as your vote is ebbing and your incumbency boost as small.
    Of course, arguably, it shouldn't be a political consideration. But we know politics comes into it.

    I don't see much in it myself. I suspect that with the increasing C2DE Tory vote and decreasing ABC1 vote, that the geography pretty much cancels out the demography. I cannot see SKS overturning the majority in 2023/4 whatever the constituencies.

    Unless of course there are further major events, which are quite possible in a rather unpredictable world.
    Starmer can't win a majority himself without Scotland. All else is noise.

    A review gain of 5 to 10 seats feels in the low side, though.

    Theory. The big recent Conservative gains have been in left-behind towns. Since those towns are left behind, I'd expect their populations to be declining, so their seat counts to fall. Hence a review that benefits the government bless than maybe expected.

    How easy would that be to check?
    Given that these are places where much of the increased Tory vote is believed to come from new house-buyers in newly built houses, declining populations does not seem that likely.

    If you just want to look at a few, Local Plans have population projections in them. Look for a document called Housing Needs Assessment.

    In my red wall Midlands' town I am personally aware of new houses being built equivalent to perhaps accommodation for 5-7% of the population in the last decade, though there may well be others.

    Here are our local projections of required housing. Each of the first 3 columns are for areas of 110-130k or so people.



  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Never had you down as a cannibal
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    On why the Lab Theory is so important - if the virus was initially seeded in September 2019 as the database shutdown implies a warning to the rest of the world would have got the Jenner institute, BioNTech, Janssen, Moderna and Novavax working on vaccines immediately. The starting gun for vaccines would have been fired four months earlier and human trials would have been commenced during the first wave. We would have had our vaccines in June, not December. We'd have completed our vaccine programme well before Christmas 2020 and we'd be back to normal with vaccines being produced in record volumes for the developing world too.

    As it is we're playing catch up because China covered it all up and seeded the virus all over the world by keeping flights out of Wuhan open for months.

    It also explains all those weird flu stories in Italy in nov 19
    Although we should be wary of false recollection, and attributing things after the event. Years ago, when I was diagnosed with leukaemia people recalled me being ill at a bbq and having to leave early. Ah yes, they said, he didn’t look well then. Except it was my wife who was ill on that occasion, and the leukaemia progression was such that I wasn’t ill at that point. False recall. Some people who had flu like symptoms in 2019 just had flu, or a bad cold.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    True but uninteresting
    But it is at the heart of the justification for a “cover up” (if it happened). If Trump had actually been interested in working with his intelligence agencies/scientists/whatever rather than seeing all of them as part of a massive conspiracy out to get him, then they would have been more relaxed about such theories being explored publicly, rather than need shutting down.
    Bollocks

    Trump was an odious madman, but the lab leak hypothesis was clearly plausible, and clearly needed investigating, from the get go. Blaming Trump is a feeble excuse advanced by people who are embarrassed by their earlier errors, or, worse, incriminated in the cover-up


    PS: a cover up DEFINITELY happened. Read this entirely convincing Vanity Fair piece (or many many others)

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
    Who cares man?
    Yeah, you're right, 10 million dead, the world economy in turmoil, who cares how it happened, it's like Chernobyl, best forgotten, pass the crystal meth, ta
    No point @Leon even though you are right. The fact is this would potentially exonerate Trump. Given that, very few people here will have very little interest in acknowledging it.
    LOL.

    It won't exonerate Trump, he screwed up the response to Covid-19 which explains all those deaths in America.

    Lab leak or natural coronavirus doesn't change his response.
    I'm not talking about his wider response, I'm talking about his view that this could have been a leak from a lab.

    As I said to @Gallowgate there were a fair few people on here who were openly mocking it, saying it was garbage etc etc. Now, in a normal circumstance, such people would be accepting that they might have been wrong or, at least, too hasty to discount the theory.
    Who was openly mocking it? No one that I recall.
    A lot. It was seem as evidence of his Sinophobia, attempts to cover the blame etc etc.
    There was mockery on here as late as ten days ago

    I linked to this absolutely seminal article by Nicholas Wade in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/


    One of the "boffins" on here chortled away, Oh do tell us what The Bulletin has to say, "is it a doomsday weapon, are we close to a meltdown" etc etc. The implication being that the article must be nonsense, because it wasn't published in a regular medico-science journal like, ooh, The Lancet

    Thus entirely missing the fucking point: that many of the mainstream science journals are part of the damn cover-up, and refuse to publish ANYTHING in support of the lab leak hypothesis, unless you put their testicles in a vice - that's if they have testicles which haven't been stolen and sauteed by China

    This ugly journalistic censorship is ably described here:

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/beijings-useful-idiots/
    I’d never heard of the Bulletin. Only read the article because @TimT said it was a serious magazine. Good article too.
    I'm surprised by that. It's quite a famous journal - if only because of its "doomsday clock"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667
    edited June 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Surely it's morally much worse to eat a creature that is in danger of becoming extinct than one which is ubiquitous?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Alistair said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
    Trying to judge China is like trying to judge the British Empire. It just is what it is. There are massive extremes of good and evil in it. It is beyond our ability to control how it develops.

    The main point about China is that they get things done, which we seem to spectacularly fail at. The main lesson we should take from looking at China is to dump the woke stuff, stop having nervous breakdowns about things that happened generations ago, be a bit more confident about things we do well, of which there are many.


    This is China that massively cracks down on free speech yeah?

    Love the through line consistency there.
    I think that free speech is one of our good points, which is why it is so tragic that we have lost it.

    Certainly in my experience it was one of the things that the Chinese used to admire about the west.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1? the government could force people, But I would strongly oppose that, or keep lockdown for ever, but I don't think that's sustainable and I would oppose anyway.

    Or we let people who don't want the jab to get immunity the hard way? until we eventually get 'herd immunity'. in which case would it not be better to do that now in the summer? lots of Sun so people have got the extra vitamin D to boost there immune systems, capacity in the Hospitals that are not dealing with the winter flue at the same time?

    To be fair I don't think this is likely, vaccinating lots of people in there 20s Will do the trick, which will happen in the next 2 weeks, and if not Quite enough then vaccinating teenagers, should be.

    We should only slowdown, stop, or reverse the unlocking if hospitals are projected to be overrun, which they are not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    On why the Lab Theory is so important - if the virus was initially seeded in September 2019 as the database shutdown implies a warning to the rest of the world would have got the Jenner institute, BioNTech, Janssen, Moderna and Novavax working on vaccines immediately. The starting gun for vaccines would have been fired four months earlier and human trials would have been commenced during the first wave. We would have had our vaccines in June, not December. We'd have completed our vaccine programme well before Christmas 2020 and we'd be back to normal with vaccines being produced in record volumes for the developing world too.

    As it is we're playing catch up because China covered it all up and seeded the virus all over the world by keeping flights out of Wuhan open for months.

    It also explains all those weird flu stories in Italy in nov 19
    Although we should be wary of false recollection, and attributing things after the event. Years ago, when I was diagnosed with leukaemia people recalled me being ill at a bbq and having to leave early. Ah yes, they said, he didn’t look well then. Except it was my wife who was ill on that occasion, and the leukaemia progression was such that I wasn’t ill at that point. False recall. Some people who had flu like symptoms in 2019 just had flu, or a bad cold.
    The area of Italy that got hit really hard has got a mini-China in it that works in the fashion sweatshops for the likes of Gucci. It also had direct flights to and from Wuhan.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,218
    edited June 2021

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stunning indeed. Fauci really says this. Go to 1:38


    ‘Fauci's words are stunning: "You don't wanna go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat-human interface. THAT MIGHT LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK. So you go to China.”’

    https://twitter.com/inwuchang/status/1402226563677143043?s=21

    How does Fauci survive these remarks? He’s now admitting he funded gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses nastier. And the reason he funded this science in Wuhan is because such research is dangerous, might cause a pandemic, and he didn’t want to take that risk in America

    I’m struggling to find an alternative explanation for his words
    That seems incredibly aggressively clipped. Would love to see the surrounding context.
    I've watched it all, and debated it with some other lab-leakers. Yes, we're a tribe! I am actually talking with Richard Ebright, the Prof of Chemistry at Rutgers, and one of the leading early doubters about natural, non-lab zoonosis

    Anyway we have decided to give Fauci the benefit of the doubt, to an extent, on this quote. He is probably trying to say, in a garbled way, that it is better to do the research in China because that is where the bat-interface is - ie in the caves of Yunnan - so there's no point in spreading the risk of a leak by bringing the research back to the USA. He's not saying Chinese lives are worth less

    However, he is, it seems, admitting that this research IS dangerous, and might cause an outbreak

    Elsewhere in the same interview Fauci tells two outright lies. He suggests the Wuhan lab is excellent and reputable (it isn't, US observers raised grave fears about Wuhan's biosecuirity in 2017) and he denies any link between the lab and the Chinese military, which is nonsense: there is ample evidence of links, including a State Department report in early 2020

    Why is Fauci telling all these apparent lies? He knows he's in deep shit. I expect one day soon he will be grilled about all this much more forensically
    A small lab leak in China which killed a few dozen would mean fuck all.

    A small lab leak in the USA which killed a few dozen would get you in serious legal problems.
    Actually, as small lab leak in China could result in the Director's execution.
    Which would give them something of an incentive to cover problems up.

    But what would worry some US topbods more - someone in China being executed or themselves facing legal action in the USA ?
    Quite a few people in the UK are also in the firing line. Daszak (a Brit). Horton at the Lancet. The editors of Nature. Farrar at the Wellcome Trust. Vallance is implicated: he was at the virtual meeting when Fauci allegedly revealed the USG's suspicions of a lab leak - even as they told the dumb public this was a *racist conspiracy theory*.

    See here:


    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1401756704472195073?s=20
    It lab leak theory being true and it being a “racist conspiracy theory” are not actually mutually inconsistent.
    True but uninteresting
    But it is at the heart of the justification for a “cover up” (if it happened). If Trump had actually been interested in working with his intelligence agencies/scientists/whatever rather than seeing all of them as part of a massive conspiracy out to get him, then they would have been more relaxed about such theories being explored publicly, rather than need shutting down.
    Bollocks

    Trump was an odious madman, but the lab leak hypothesis was clearly plausible, and clearly needed investigating, from the get go. Blaming Trump is a feeble excuse advanced by people who are embarrassed by their earlier errors, or, worse, incriminated in the cover-up


    PS: a cover up DEFINITELY happened. Read this entirely convincing Vanity Fair piece (or many many others)

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
    Who cares man?
    Actually you should. Because, if this turns out to be even halfway true, the next question you might want to ask yourself is "what else have they been doing?"
    So what? We all know China most likely has stocks of all manner of awful bio and chemical weapons of mass destruction. What are we going to do about it? Nothing. What can we do about it? Nothing.
    If that is the attitude, then fine.

    Presumably, if China invades Taiwan or indeed SE Asia, then we should just throw our hands up and say "we can't do anything".

    I think there was a similar attitude to a certain European country in the 1930s....
    What do you suggest we do?
    Gong a little tangential, I think Germany will sell Taiwan lots of diesel-electric submarines.

    They sold the submarine engine to the Chinese that allowed them to pop in on the American carrier.

    And the German Govt actually paid a third of the cost of subs and frigates sold to the Israelis.

    Then they sold another 6 frigates to the Egyptians.

    (From memory, but I think it is right)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    They need to feel the smack of firm government.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    This sounds like a Daily Mash story but this is true.

    Northern dad 'needs therapy' after being charged £54 for fish and chips in London

    Gareth Jones tweeted about his dad's reaction.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/northern-dad-gobsmacked-after-being-20762203

    So he paid £54 for 4 meals delivered = £13.50 per meal.

    Is part of that delivery fee? And tax?

    From Seattle perspective sounds a bit pricey but hardly newsworthy - we ARE the land of the $4.50 mocha!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @Charles, could I possibly pick your brains? Would you happen to have any advice for a charity wanting to adopt an ESG policy for its investments?

    If you'd be willing, could I pm you?

    (If any other PB'ers are knowledgeable on this topic the same question applies!)

    --AS

    Sure happy to share thoughts.
    Thanks v much, I have sent a pm. And if I don't reply tonight, it will be because I fell asleep!

    --AS
    It’s a proper question which deserves a proper answer so may reply tomorrow!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The sausage thing is a microcosm of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It has everything:

    1. UK complaining about rules it definitely signed up to
    2. EU being inflexible on something not remotely threatening anyone's actual safety
    3.Hyperbolic headlines
    4. Wild accusations


    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1402182146798796800?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    darkage said:

    Alistair said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
    Trying to judge China is like trying to judge the British Empire. It just is what it is. There are massive extremes of good and evil in it. It is beyond our ability to control how it develops.

    The main point about China is that they get things done, which we seem to spectacularly fail at. The main lesson we should take from looking at China is to dump the woke stuff, stop having nervous breakdowns about things that happened generations ago, be a bit more confident about things we do well, of which there are many.


    This is China that massively cracks down on free speech yeah?

    Love the through line consistency there.
    I think that free speech is one of our good points, which is why it is so tragic that we have lost it.

    Certainly in my experience it was one of the things that the Chinese used to admire about the west.
    So which is it, we should crack down on dissent like the Chinese or we should allow free unfettered criticism of the actions of the British Empire in the past like "the woke" do now?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Charles said:

    Too racist for the Tele? Will GB News have her? Though that Mickey Mouse on Helium voice is not designed for broadcasting of any sort.

    https://twitter.com/nadine_writes/status/1402292181222756361?s=21

    Typically woke media cancelling the innocent.
    Why is saying they missed an opportunity to call the kid “Georgiana Floydia” racist? It’s tasteless and unfunny, yes, but poking fun at the parent’s not the kid.

    Referring to her as “it” is poor drafting
    Because relentlessly mocking somebody's antiracism is racist.

    All note.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    The sausage thing is a microcosm of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It has everything:

    1. UK complaining about rules it definitely signed up to
    2. EU being inflexible on something not remotely threatening anyone's actual safety
    3.Hyperbolic headlines
    4. Wild accusations


    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1402182146798796800?s=20

    I suspect it will eventually end in a sensible deal but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

    The EU seem insistent on treating GB-NI trade like Dover-Calais.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1? the government could force people, But I would strongly oppose that, or keep lockdown for ever, but I don't think that's sustainable and I would oppose anyway.

    Or we let people who don't want the jab to get immunity the hard way? until we eventually get 'herd immunity'. in which case would it not be better to do that now in the summer? lots of Sun so people have got the extra vitamin D to boost there immune systems, capacity in the Hospitals that are not dealing with the winter flue at the same time?

    To be fair I don't think this is likely, vaccinating lots of people in there 20s Will do the trick, which will happen in the next 2 weeks, and if not Quite enough then vaccinating teenagers, should be.

    We should only slowdown, stop, or reverse the unlocking if hospitals are projected to be overrun, which they are not.
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1?

    In the immediate future ?
    Boosters of a different vaccine type & extending the program down to 12 year olds.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    This also applies to extending the lockdown measures. The scientists will keep coming back for just two more weeks.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Surely it's morally much worse to eat a creature that is in danger of becoming extinct than one which is ubiquitous?
    Just start farming pangolins if people want to eat them
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Never had you down as a cannibal
    Shrugs cant say it would bother me if you take away the Kuru problem meat is meat. Just seems silly to me that there are edible animals and non edible ones because of some moral imperative. It is either immoral to eat flesh or its not
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1? the government could force people, But I would strongly oppose that, or keep lockdown for ever, but I don't think that's sustainable and I would oppose anyway.

    Or we let people who don't want the jab to get immunity the hard way? until we eventually get 'herd immunity'. in which case would it not be better to do that now in the summer? lots of Sun so people have got the extra vitamin D to boost there immune systems, capacity in the Hospitals that are not dealing with the winter flue at the same time?

    To be fair I don't think this is likely, vaccinating lots of people in there 20s Will do the trick, which will happen in the next 2 weeks, and if not Quite enough then vaccinating teenagers, should be.

    We should only slowdown, stop, or reverse the unlocking if hospitals are projected to be overrun, which they are not.
    The vaccines exist to prevent people from turning up at hospitals. Whatever it does in addition is a bonus.

    It's not a disease worth worrying about if all it does is give people a mild cough or no symptoms at all. So even if the R stays above 1 there's really bugger all to worry about.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021

    The sausage thing is a microcosm of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It has everything:

    1. UK complaining about rules it definitely signed up to
    2. EU being inflexible on something not remotely threatening anyone's actual safety
    3.Hyperbolic headlines
    4. Wild accusations


    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1402182146798796800?s=20

    I suspect it will eventually end in a sensible deal but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

    The EU seem insistent on treating GB-NI trade like Dover-Calais.
    The U.K. seem not to understand that displays of bad faith increase EU suspicion and in turn over reliance on prescriptive rules.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    This also applies to extending the lockdown measures. The scientists will keep coming back for just two more weeks.
    We'll know if the delay comes with some wooly statement about passing the necessary tests to progress.

    If they turn up and say "it's a pause but here are the specific criteria we're aiming to achieve" then it should be fine. But anything even slightly wooly and you can write off the summer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Surely it's morally much worse to eat a creature that is in danger of becoming extinct than one which is ubiquitous?
    Just start farming pangolins if people want to eat them
    That's a fair point

    I've made the same argument about rhinos. If the Chinese/Vietnamese are really so desperate for rhino horn, why not just breed rhino on some huge farm in, say, Australia (which has plenty of suitable land). This would have an added advantage: once rhino horn is mass produced in farms it would lost its rarity value, and I reckon east Asians would go off it, as the status symbolism departs

    Incredibly, there are ultra-greens that resist this, which is why it hasn't been done. Their argument is that a wild species must never be domesticated, it is morally wrong. They would rather see rhinos go extinct, than accommodate a farming programme

    Idiots

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,375
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    This also applies to extending the lockdown measures. The scientists will keep coming back for just two more weeks.
    For sure, the Branch Covidians think lockdown is good for the soul.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    Quite a few more unfortunately - cases are rapidly accelerating in NW and beginning to do so in other areas eg London, government will seek to buy time for further vaccination progress.
    But specifically who? Young people? We know that's not an issue. Old people? Vaccines give at least a 99% cumulative reduction in hospitalisations after two doses and groups 1-9 will be complete in 4 days.

    We're left with vaccine refusers, and we know from previous announcements by the government that vaccine refusers are the largest cohort now presenting with severe symptoms. What exactly is 4-5 weeks of additional lockdown going to achieve? Will those people who refused magically be convinced to take it in that time? Will they be forcibly jabbed? What are you proposing to convince these people to take the vaccine and how would even get it done in that short period of time

    No, the answer is "unfortunately people are going to die of COVID and people who have refused the vaccine will die at a much higher rate than those who have taken it. The country can no longer put life on hold now that 90% of vulnerable people have received both doses of the vaccine and we must learn to live normally again".
    Yes, young people.
    Of course it’s bloody young people.
    It’s been literally staring out of the screen on every daily graph Malmesbury posts on the age categories of admissions.
    Ages 18-64, and 0-5 have both been steadily climbing.

    Younger people get hospitalised at a significantly lesser rate, but not a zero rate. Nor a negligible rate.
    Which is why hospital admissions are climbing significantly slower, but aren’t negligible.

    They also tend to leave hospital sooner, which is exactly why discharge rates are higher and hospital numbers are climbing slower than they would otherwise have been.

    They’re also unfortunately not immune to long-term consequences, and Long Covid incidence is not hugely lower for them.

    So what has to be weighed up by decision-makers is whether the slower increase inherent in younger-dominated hospitalisations will accelerate too quickly or not. It’s possible, but it’s also very possible that it won’t, especially as vax effects kick in further and further down the age cohorts week by week.

    I’m hopeful that the vax will outrun the virus and Delta left it just that much too late. I’m not certain of it, though, and anyone who is certain in either direction is likely talking either their hope or their fear more than anything else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,205
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    I don't think that's true.

    There's clearly a distinction between eating an amoeba and eating another human being.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    MaxPB said:

    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1? the government could force people, But I would strongly oppose that, or keep lockdown for ever, but I don't think that's sustainable and I would oppose anyway.

    Or we let people who don't want the jab to get immunity the hard way? until we eventually get 'herd immunity'. in which case would it not be better to do that now in the summer? lots of Sun so people have got the extra vitamin D to boost there immune systems, capacity in the Hospitals that are not dealing with the winter flue at the same time?

    To be fair I don't think this is likely, vaccinating lots of people in there 20s Will do the trick, which will happen in the next 2 weeks, and if not Quite enough then vaccinating teenagers, should be.

    We should only slowdown, stop, or reverse the unlocking if hospitals are projected to be overrun, which they are not.
    The vaccines exist to prevent people from turning up at hospitals. Whatever it does in addition is a bonus.

    It's not a disease worth worrying about if all it does is give people a mild cough or no symptoms at all. So even if the R stays above 1 there's really bugger all to worry about.
    This is a message that is in danger of being forgotten. People seem to be assuming that vaccination means you won’t get Covid at all, which is not the case for everyone. See @foxy for his colleagues’ son.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Alistair said:

    darkage said:

    Alistair said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    The question remains, are we prepared to reduce our standard of living in order to teach China a lesson?

    Are we prepared to completely rebalance the global economy?

    Unlikely.

    China has reversed the Opium War. They have the treaty ports and are pushing our addiction to consumer tat via them.

    I suspect protectionism might play well in the Red Wall, at least for a bit. Might be more of a problem to our free traders though.
    Trying to judge China is like trying to judge the British Empire. It just is what it is. There are massive extremes of good and evil in it. It is beyond our ability to control how it develops.

    The main point about China is that they get things done, which we seem to spectacularly fail at. The main lesson we should take from looking at China is to dump the woke stuff, stop having nervous breakdowns about things that happened generations ago, be a bit more confident about things we do well, of which there are many.


    This is China that massively cracks down on free speech yeah?

    Love the through line consistency there.
    I think that free speech is one of our good points, which is why it is so tragic that we have lost it.

    Certainly in my experience it was one of the things that the Chinese used to admire about the west.
    So which is it, we should crack down on dissent like the Chinese or we should allow free unfettered criticism of the actions of the British Empire in the past like "the woke" do now?
    I don't see what you are getting at. I am not saying that the woke shouldn't be able to complain about the British empire. The woke should be made to debate their ideas and not just shut down criticism as they do at the moment, through to their highly dubious theories that have somehow taken over our universities.

    As for China crushing dissent, I don't like that, nor the social credit system, nor the genocide against Uighurs, nor the takeover of Hong Kong. But there isn't much we can really do about any of this. You have to admit that they do some things well, ie making consumer products, sorting out green technology, improving the material quality of life for their citizens, lifting people out of poverty, providing healthcare, dealing with pandemics etc.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,218
    I wonder if Indian players will be offended by the Morgan tweets.

    And how they characterise the English, NZ or Ozzie players on Twitter themselves.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Nightclubs now unlikely to reopen on June 21st

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1402366103209271301?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    They need to feel the smack of firm government.
    You'd surely need a firm government for that?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    And Foxy is right: we must pressurise China to close the wet markets and end the wildlife trade

    What kind of depraved fucker eats a pangolin, anyway?

    Save The Pangolins. If any good is to come of this wretched calamity, perhaps one upside is this: we will rethink our hideous mistreatment of wild animals

    Out of curiousity why is eating a pangolin worse than eating a cow?
    Because they are internationally recognised protected species.

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin
    But that just makes them expensive. Morally eating one living creature is no different to eating another. My view as a meat eater
    Surely it's morally much worse to eat a creature that is in danger of becoming extinct than one which is ubiquitous?
    Just start farming pangolins if people want to eat them
    That's a fair point

    I've made the same argument about rhinos. If the Chinese/Vietnamese are really so desperate for rhino horn, why not just breed rhino on some huge farm in, say, Australia (which has plenty of suitable land). This would have an added advantage: once rhino horn is mass produced in farms it would lost its rarity value, and I reckon east Asians would go off it, as the status symbolism departs

    Incredibly, there are ultra-greens that resist this, which is why it hasn't been done. Their argument is that a wild species must never be domesticated, it is morally wrong. They would rather see rhinos go extinct, than accommodate a farming programme

    Idiots

    Precisely if people didnt eat meat I suspect many of our current domesticated species wouldnt still be around. Its like people who object to fishing because its a blood sport but failing to notice that it was because people wanted to fish that many of our rivers, canals and lakes were stocked to meet that after they were detoxified
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    The sausage thing is a microcosm of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It has everything:

    1. UK complaining about rules it definitely signed up to
    2. EU being inflexible on something not remotely threatening anyone's actual safety
    3.Hyperbolic headlines
    4. Wild accusations


    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1402182146798796800?s=20

    I suspect it will eventually end in a sensible deal but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

    The EU seem insistent on treating GB-NI trade like Dover-Calais.
    The U.K. seem not to understand that displays of bad faith increase EU suspicion and in turn over reliance on prescriptive rules.
    The EU lost the right to complain about that when they shat the bed with Article 16.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    edited June 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    This also applies to extending the lockdown measures. The scientists will keep coming back for just two more weeks.
    We'll know if the delay comes with some wooly statement about passing the necessary tests to progress.

    If they turn up and say "it's a pause but here are the specific criteria we're aiming to achieve" then it should be fine. But anything even slightly wooly and you can write off the summer.
    I'm already writing off 2021. The scientists will see that any fun we can have in the UK is ended because some old wanker vaccine refusers might die. Honestly, I'm seriously thinking about selling the house and leaving the country and moving to Italy. My wife would be happy to book the flights yesterday.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just like the summer into autumn wave of 202p this one is starting in the North so ignored, long thread and we'll balanced.

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    HYUFD said:

    Nightclubs now unlikely to reopen on June 21st

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1402366103209271301?s=20

    Do 18 to 25 year olds still want to go to nightclubs?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821

    According to that FT article the hotspots are Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, Harrow, and Leicester.

    So seems logical that Indian travel is to blame.

    Look on the bright side, the Indian cricket team will soon be over for the summer.
    But - my understanding - and I may be quite wrong- is that we don't actually have that many Indians in Bolton/Blackburn/Burnley/Bradford. The Asians there are Pakistani heritage.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    France looking worryingly efficient… will be very hard to beat. Again.

    Macron has the vaccination program in order ?

    ECB to take 'appropriate action' over England players' historical tweets as more emerge
    Ffsake it's been treated like historical sex abuse.
    That's the problem. You throw meat to the shark, and the shark just wants more meat.
    This also applies to extending the lockdown measures. The scientists will keep coming back for just two more weeks.
    It applies to all half-baked big government programmes. Starting one inevitably creates huge interests dedicated to its continuation. It is an order of magnitude more difficult to cut spending, even on the stupidest, least popular programme than to just screw the taxpayers over yet again. See for instance the difference between the opposition to small cut to foreign aid with how easy it was to increase corporation tax hugely in the Budget.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,138
    MaxPB said:


    It's not a disease worth worrying about if all it does is give people a mild cough or no symptoms at all. So even if the R stays above 1 there's really bugger all to worry about.

    This somewhat ignores the middle ground between "mild cough" and "hospitalisation", which includes 'long covid' (the ONS found over 13% of covid cases were still experiencing symptoms 12 weeks after infection) as well as nasty-but-short-of-hospitalisation experiences. Also, the vaccines aren't 100% effective -- the reduction in risk for me relies not only on my jab but also on case rates in the area where I am being low enough that I'm not that likely to be exposed to it in the first place.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1? the government could force people, But I would strongly oppose that, or keep lockdown for ever, but I don't think that's sustainable and I would oppose anyway.

    Or we let people who don't want the jab to get immunity the hard way? until we eventually get 'herd immunity'. in which case would it not be better to do that now in the summer? lots of Sun so people have got the extra vitamin D to boost there immune systems, capacity in the Hospitals that are not dealing with the winter flue at the same time?

    To be fair I don't think this is likely, vaccinating lots of people in there 20s Will do the trick, which will happen in the next 2 weeks, and if not Quite enough then vaccinating teenagers, should be.

    We should only slowdown, stop, or reverse the unlocking if hospitals are projected to be overrun, which they are not.
    There is one, scary, possibility, what if even when everybody who wants a jab has had one (or 2) and the R rate for the new variant is still over 1?

    In the immediate future ?
    Boosters of a different vaccine type & extending the program down to 12 year olds.
    What will happen? Cases will rip through the anti vaxxers; if I were in government I would advise the immunocompromised to shield for a few more months whilst the final blip goes through the foolish, and herd immunity is reached.

    There is a very real argument for lifting the measures ASAP. Having the final wave in the summer will be far better.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    This thread is worth a read - basically, the vaccines are working but the youth aren't yet vaccinated enough to inhibit a rise in admissions. I'd say that points to a 2-4 week delay to 21st June, but I'm guessing:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351599645757440?s=20

    4 weeks. Or maybe 5. The decision has 90% been made but still won't be announced until Monday.
    To what end? Who exactly is going to end up in hospital?
    Quite a few more unfortunately - cases are rapidly accelerating in NW and beginning to do so in other areas eg London, government will seek to buy time for further vaccination progress.
    But specifically who? Young people? We know that's not an issue. Old people? Vaccines give at least a 99% cumulative reduction in hospitalisations after two doses and groups 1-9 will be complete in 4 days.

    We're left with vaccine refusers, and we know from previous announcements by the government that vaccine refusers are the largest cohort now presenting with severe symptoms. What exactly is 4-5 weeks of additional lockdown going to achieve? Will those people who refused magically be convinced to take it in that time? Will they be forcibly jabbed? What are you proposing to convince these people to take the vaccine and how would even get it done in that short period of time

    No, the answer is "unfortunately people are going to die of COVID and people who have refused the vaccine will die at a much higher rate than those who have taken it. The country can no longer put life on hold now that 90% of vulnerable people have received both doses of the vaccine and we must learn to live normally again".
    Yes, young people.
    Of course it’s bloody young people.
    It’s been literally staring out of the screen on every daily graph Malmesbury posts on the age categories of admissions.
    Ages 18-64, and 0-5 have both been steadily climbing.

    Younger people get hospitalised at a significantly lesser rate, but not a zero rate. Nor a negligible rate.
    Which is why hospital admissions are climbing significantly slower, but aren’t negligible.

    They also tend to leave hospital sooner, which is exactly why discharge rates are higher and hospital numbers are climbing slower than they would otherwise have been.

    They’re also unfortunately not immune to long-term consequences, and Long Covid incidence is not hugely lower for them.

    So what has to be weighed up by decision-makers is whether the slower increase inherent in younger-dominated hospitalisations will accelerate too quickly or not. It’s possible, but it’s also very possible that it won’t, especially as vax effects kick in further and further down the age cohorts week by week.

    I’m hopeful that the vax will outrun the virus and Delta left it just that much too late. I’m not certain of it, though, and anyone who is certain in either direction is likely talking either their hope or their fear more than anything else.
    On young people. A graduate student that I advise -- fit and healthy in his early 20s -- was unable to work for 6 months after COVID, and it has left him with a permanent serious heart condition. It may well derail his career entirely. Certainly the consequences have been life-changing.

    Just an anecdote. Along with the case of my relative, also healthy, who died before his 40th birthday, it makes me treat rising numbers seriously. Or perhaps I am bad luck. Anyway, I agree with your conclusion that with luck the vaccine will outpace the cases, but that it could go either way.

    --AS
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    The Lord Chancellor will now be presenting the nominations of Bishops to Her Majesty The Queen to avoid breaching of the Roman Catholic Relief Act after Boris reconverted to Rome from the Established Church.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/announcing-bishops-will-fall-to-someone-else-now-pms-a-catholic-9k29b272z
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    Foxy said:

    This sounds like a Daily Mash story but this is true.

    Northern dad 'needs therapy' after being charged £54 for fish and chips in London

    Gareth Jones tweeted about his dad's reaction.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/northern-dad-gobsmacked-after-being-20762203

    To be fair, it was 4 portions, delivered. There's always someone daft and lazy enough.
    There's often quite a price differential to order a fish and a chips compared to whatever 'special offer' for exactly the same thing is available.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    edited June 2021
    Cookie said:

    According to that FT article the hotspots are Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, Harrow, and Leicester.

    So seems logical that Indian travel is to blame.

    Look on the bright side, the Indian cricket team will soon be over for the summer.
    But - my understanding - and I may be quite wrong- is that we don't actually have that many Indians in Bolton/Blackburn/Burnley/Bradford. The Asians there are Pakistani heritage.
    Blame partition.

    There's more Muslims living in India than there are Muslims in Pakistan.

    Heritage in those areas can be mixed/self identified.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    pm215 said:

    MaxPB said:


    It's not a disease worth worrying about if all it does is give people a mild cough or no symptoms at all. So even if the R stays above 1 there's really bugger all to worry about.

    This somewhat ignores the middle ground between "mild cough" and "hospitalisation", which includes 'long covid' (the ONS found over 13% of covid cases were still experiencing symptoms 12 weeks after infection) as well as nasty-but-short-of-hospitalisation experiences. Also, the vaccines aren't 100% effective -- the reduction in risk for me relies not only on my jab but also on case rates in the area where I am being low enough that I'm not that likely to be exposed to it in the first place.
    I think long covid is far less likely if you're vaxxed. Your body is not naive to the virus, that's the whole point of the vaccines.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Foxy said:

    This sounds like a Daily Mash story but this is true.

    Northern dad 'needs therapy' after being charged £54 for fish and chips in London

    Gareth Jones tweeted about his dad's reaction.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/northern-dad-gobsmacked-after-being-20762203

    To be fair, it was 4 portions, delivered. There's always someone daft and lazy enough.
    There's often quite a price differential to order a fish and a chips compared to whatever 'special offer' for exactly the same thing is available.
    Especially as the 'fish and chips' special is often, in my experience, not cod.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Cookie said:

    According to that FT article the hotspots are Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, Harrow, and Leicester.

    So seems logical that Indian travel is to blame.

    Look on the bright side, the Indian cricket team will soon be over for the summer.
    But - my understanding - and I may be quite wrong- is that we don't actually have that many Indians in Bolton/Blackburn/Burnley/Bradford. The Asians there are Pakistani heritage.
    Blame partition.

    There's more Muslims living in India than there Muslims in Pakistan.

    Heritage in those areas can be mixed/self identified.
    Dawkins' Disease, indeed
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,138
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Then you can stay at home for the rest of your days. That's your choice. The rest of us will make our own decisions on what is an acceptable level of risk.

    Or maybe we could try to make a national level decision about whether there are useful measures that might keep cases lower overall while vaccination rolls out to lower age groups, rather than taking a prisoner's--dilemma "everybody individually plays 'defect'" approach...
This discussion has been closed.