Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
Yeah they'd be completely mad to do it now, some might but it won't get to anywhere near 30 rebels as was being briefed before. Maybe 5-7 MPs who escaped the 2019 purge of the wets.
Any other scientists with dubious qualifications to pontificate on public health measures in a pandemic want to join me in founding the "Positive About Reopening, Set Loose, Enjoy Yourselves" consortium as a counterpoint to iSAGE?
I have a chemistry degree which has sat unused for 12 years, can I join? I think I'd qualify for indy Sage.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
I'm sure the guns of war thing will drown out quiet reflection, but...
Even if the ECB have over-reacted (and you can fairly argue either way on that... We're talking one match for crying out loud)
When a senior minister is publicly weighing in on whether an individual should play in a professional sport match...
... We're in the Bad Place, aren't we?
No, we're in a Very Good Place. Organizations like the ECB who should never have become involved in the miserable practice of offence archaeology in the first place are getting a gentle reminder of what proper government is all about.
The ECB are also totally inconsistent. Overton, screaming racist abuse at a batsman, yeah that's ok we will pick him, Hales, you got done for drugs multiple times, kicked some defenceless twat in the head and being a consistent all round disruptive bellend, yeap we will kept picking you....until Morgan finally said I am absolutely not having him, he causes so much trouble...come on Morgs, he is a good player, you can f##k right off if I am having him in my team.
You did what, you wrote some idiotic tweets 10 years ago, apology now, ok no prob boss, right good, your fired. You what....
The best thing the ECB could do is run awareness courses on social media, for all the teenagers looking to turn professional, and have a couple of consultants go through with a big delete button.
My cousin's son is on the Warks youth team. His social media twitter account is clean as a whistle and 100% cricket focussed.
While I don't agree at all with what the very much younger Robinson appears to have tweeted the 'investigation should end once it has been established that nothing similar has been published since he was 21. He should then be told that his slate is as clean as anyone else's. What would they do if a cricketer tweeted some thing like 'Johnson is a complete bellend'?
The G7 tax deal is apparently not what it claims to be:
• The 10% tax threshold means companies won't pay tax unless their profits are more than that
• Therefore, Amazon's profit (over $8bn but under 10%) probably means not a single penny extra in tax
It would appear to capture Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google (Alphabet).
I reckon 4 out of 5 aren't bad for a ripping up of about 100 years of tax theory.
The rumours this morning is that business units may be targeted rather than companies so AWS will treated separately to Amazon retail. It also gets around the "quick but loads of unrelated low margin businesses" route.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
The G7 tax deal is apparently not what it claims to be:
• The 10% tax threshold means companies won't pay tax unless their profits are more than that
• Therefore, Amazon's profit (over $8bn but under 10%) probably means not a single penny extra in tax
It would appear to capture Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google (Alphabet).
I reckon 4 out of 5 aren't bad for a ripping up of about 100 years of tax theory.
The rumours this morning is that business units may be targeted rather than companies so AWS will treated separately to Amazon retail. It also gets around the "quick but loads of unrelated low margin businesses" route.
AWS makes sense.
I mean it is really unsurprising that a tax on revenue needs to consider margin.
If Tesco, for example, were taxed on revenue it would face a much larger real tax rate than other businesses of comparative profit.
(In fact, if Tesco ditched its unrelated property holdings, its margin would shrink even more. I think it has done some of that over the last few years).
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
‘WATCH: @SteveHiltonx shares new proof that Dr. Fauci lied to congress about the NIAID-funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab #NextRevFNC #PandemicOrigins’
‘Elite journals under scrutiny over role in Wuhan lab leak debate: Critics argue that The Lancet failed to disclose potential conflict of interest when dismissing the leak theory’
GB News is about setting the agenda not making money surely?
Maybe, but how do they survive without money? £60m is going to last them all of 9 months.
Its worth noting they're substantially backed by Discovery, which has launched its own streaming service. We have Discovery+ but only because it was free for 12 months with Sky - can't imagine currently paying for it when that 12 month period expires. Though my wife likes it for Discovery's many true crime documentaries.
The interplay of Discovery and GB News will be interesting. Currently I don't see Discovery+ really taking off in the way Disney+ has.
Discovery has just merged with Warner Media, the owners of CNN and CNN international. I can't imagine that there is much appetite to have two independent news channels.
What's interesting is that the new merged company may not renew with Sky which means Sky Atlantic loses all of the HBO content and they push it all through Discovery+ making it a legitimate competitor to D+ and Netflix.
That would be the only other thing outside of the footy that really drives any subscriptions for Sky. I wouldn't want to have any money in Sky, it is only a matter of time before either the clubs themselves launch EPL+ or they do a deal with a Disney (like the UFC did, where UFC get to earn a s##t tonne and Disney, via EPSN, get some fight cards and points on the PPVs, which they drive by hyping up).
Then what have they got, nobody gets it for the movies now, no Sky Atlantic, means no top tier US telly and no football, means you pay £100 a month for some golf and cricket.
Sky Q is a really good technical platform, but we use it most of the time to access the streaming apps - which can be access via the TV's own Smart TV platform nowadays.
A few years ago after moving house we went a while with streaming platforms only, via a Roku stick, but it was irritating as not all streaming platforms were available on any individual stick at the time. Nowadays all the apps seem to have become universally available on any platform, which drops the incentive of having one major hub to deliver them all if the TV can do it itself natively.
At some point will have to question whether Sky is worth still paying for any more or not.
Sky Q was a good idea but 10 years too late. From about 2004 onwards I setup my own distributed TV system built using Windows Media Center. Allowed one hub PC with a quad TV tuner to record up to 4 channels simultaneously and you could then access remotely using another device on the home network. Worked really well but was a bit of a faff to maintain. 10 or so years later it was not worth having because you could just stream on-demand all the content that used to be recorded. I now just use Fire TV devices to stream what I need. The TVs are still connected to an aerial for immediate switch-on of the news sometime. I don't understand anyone paying for a Sky subscription now.
Any other scientists with dubious qualifications to pontificate on public health measures in a pandemic want to join me in founding the "Positive About Reopening, Set Loose, Enjoy Yourselves" consortium as a counterpoint to iSAGE?
I have a chemistry degree which has sat unused for 12 years, can I join? I think I'd qualify for indy Sage.
Yes, I don't see why not. Shoud qualify you to focus on the gender inequalities of Covid vaccination among the over 80 cohort? Turbotubbs can look at the psychological impacts on NHS staff of easing lockdown on 21 June. Having a GCSE in biology, I'll take biological changes induced by long Covid.
We really need some sociologists/philsophers on board so we can develop a view of mechanism of action of rare vaccine side effects and the applicability of NPIs in a post-vaccine Britain.
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
It is interesting that many of the people who argue for such... enthusiasm for punishment over past transgressions are also arguing for reduced time periods for the wiping out of actual criminal records.
The argument for reducing the time until criminal records being expunged is that it effects the employment prospects of the people concerned....
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
I doubt he'd expel all of them, cutting his majority significantly, over what is, at the end of the day, upholding a manifesto commitment, no matter how unpopular. But maybe I underestimate him.
What I would do instead is put pressure on them through friendly members of their constituency associations, etc.
Tory rebels haven't given up hope - despite briefings that Commons clerks have ruled their amendment forcing a vote on retaining 0.7% aid spending out of scope.
‘I suspect that a lot of the people saying how ridiculous the Ollie Robinson suspension is because we all make terrible mistakes when we’re teenagers have no problem with Shamima Begum being stripped of her British citizenship.’
‘I suspect that a lot of the people saying how ridiculous the Ollie Robinson suspension is because we all make terrible mistakes when we’re teenagers have no problem with Shamima Begum being stripped of her British citizenship.’
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
I doubt he'd expel all of them, cutting his majority significantly, over what is, at the end of the day, upholding a manifesto commitment, no matter how unpopular. But maybe I underestimate him.
What I would do instead is put pressure on them through friendly members of their constituency associations, etc.
Maybe just a few of the ringleaders, pour décourager les autres.
GB News is about setting the agenda not making money surely?
Maybe, but how do they survive without money? £60m is going to last them all of 9 months.
Its worth noting they're substantially backed by Discovery, which has launched its own streaming service. We have Discovery+ but only because it was free for 12 months with Sky - can't imagine currently paying for it when that 12 month period expires. Though my wife likes it for Discovery's many true crime documentaries.
The interplay of Discovery and GB News will be interesting. Currently I don't see Discovery+ really taking off in the way Disney+ has.
Discovery has just merged with Warner Media, the owners of CNN and CNN international. I can't imagine that there is much appetite to have two independent news channels.
What's interesting is that the new merged company may not renew with Sky which means Sky Atlantic loses all of the HBO content and they push it all through Discovery+ making it a legitimate competitor to D+ and Netflix.
That would be the only other thing outside of the footy that really drives any subscriptions for Sky. I wouldn't want to have any money in Sky, it is only a matter of time before either the clubs themselves launch EPL+ or they do a deal with a Disney (like the UFC did, where UFC get to earn a s##t tonne and Disney, via EPSN, get some fight cards and points on the PPVs, which they drive by hyping up).
Then what have they got, nobody gets it for the movies now, no Sky Atlantic, means no top tier US telly and no football, means you pay £100 a month for some golf and cricket.
Sky Q is a really good technical platform, but we use it most of the time to access the streaming apps - which can be access via the TV's own Smart TV platform nowadays.
A few years ago after moving house we went a while with streaming platforms only, via a Roku stick, but it was irritating as not all streaming platforms were available on any individual stick at the time. Nowadays all the apps seem to have become universally available on any platform, which drops the incentive of having one major hub to deliver them all if the TV can do it itself natively.
At some point will have to question whether Sky is worth still paying for any more or not.
Sky Q was a good idea but 10 years too late. From about 2004 onwards I setup my own distributed TV system built using Windows Media Center. Allowed one hub PC with a quad TV tuner to record up to 4 channels simultaneously and you could then access remotely using another device on the home network. Worked really well but was a bit of a faff to maintain. 10 or so years later it was not worth having because you could just stream on-demand all the content that used to be recorded. I now just use Fire TV devices to stream what I need. The TVs are still connected to an aerial for immediate switch-on of the news sometime. I don't understand anyone paying for a Sky subscription now.
Does anyone watch anything except sport on live TV any more? Pretty much the only thing keeping many of us from cutting the cord completely.
Shame we can no longer see what the people of the region of England feel about the matter.
Not sure that question would work here. "The country" would be coded as the UK and "the region" coded as the particular county lived in. Not sure many would place county above country. Cornwall maybe?
I think obviously the country is the UK, but the region is surely England/Scotland/Wales/NI?
Does anyone in England think of England as a region?
Either Counties, or North West/South East etc are typically used as regions, never England.
It is the first subnational division of the country, which is surely what the survey is trying to find out. Of course you can Balkanise England further, as Labour were desperate to do in the 2000s. But the survey would then be a little redundant, as very very few will identify with "North West" compared to England or UK. The question of English vs UK identity, however, is a live and important one.
(Although I'm surprised that they haven't gone for the Lander as the subnational regions in Germany).
The question of English vs UK identity is a real one, as is Scots vs UK, but that's a question of national identities. England and Scotland are recognised as nations within a nation, not regions.
The question is about "country" not nation, which is a much vaguer term. The UK is a country, like the United States, Canada or Australia, recognised as such by foreign countries (see e.g. https://www.state.gov/independent-states-in-the-world/ or here https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/states.htm) and the United Nations (https://www.worldometers.info/united-nations/). Our four members are the first subnational regions, like states in America or Australia or provinces in Canada. England isn't a country in any generally accepted sense - the OED defines a country as "an area of land that has its own government" and England doesn't even have that.
Wales was recognised as a country in its own right and not a principality in 2011.
They are ceremonial countries, the only sovereign country in GB is the UK
As GB is in the UK (of GB and NI) you might want to reconsider your grasp of our country before making such strident and confident statements. "Great Britain" is the amalgam of England, Wales and Scotland. The United Kingdom adds Norther Ireland to Great Britain.
Again, its about the difference between a nation, a state, and a nation-state. "Great Britain" is none of these.
Northern Ireland is also a mere ceremonial province of the UK.
However obviously Ireland as an island includes Ireland which is a sovereign nation separate to the UK so my statement only applied to Great Britain
"Great Britain" is not a "sovereign country". Your statement was plain wrong.
No, my statement that the UK is the only sovereign country in GB was absolutely correct.
It is not the only sovereign country in Ireland though as Ireland also includes the Republic of Ireland as well as Northern Ireland
It's a short step from here to HYUFD suggesting that we field a GB team at rugby, football, cricket and netball...
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
It is interesting that many of the people who argue for such... enthusiasm for punishment over past transgressions are also arguing for reduced time periods for the wiping out of actual criminal records.
The argument for reducing the time until criminal records being expunged is that it effects the employment prospects of the people concerned....
It mostly seems to be driven by a desire to tackle, root out and exterminate the behaviours that led to Trump and Brexit.
Forget Euro English. Forget Globish. France is determined to make 2022 the year of the French language.
Ah, je m’excuse : l’année de la langue française
Seven months before taking over the EU’s rotating Council presidency, the French government is mulling plans to revive the declining use and visibility of la langue de Molière.
This is pretty significant, if you're following the Source of Covid story
One of the main virologists defending the "natural origins" thesis is K G Anderson
Weirdly enough, he mentioned a possible "engineered" aspect to the virus to Anthony Fauci, in a FOIA'd email back in January 2020. Four days later he was on board with natural zoonosis, 100%, with no obvious data interim to change his mind. Why?
Who knows. But ever since he has been furiously denouncing "lab leak" and presenting concepts for "wet market" - or whatever
Until this week. For the last few hours he has been deleting tweets en masse, and now he has deleted his entire account, as citizen journalists probe what he has said
It's a cover up. It came from the lab. Enough
"Kristian G. Anderson in a January 31, 2020 email to Anthony Fauci:
“…Eddie, Bob, Mike and myself all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory.”
The hypocrisy of these people is simply stunning."
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
I'm sure the guns of war thing will drown out quiet reflection, but...
Even if the ECB have over-reacted (and you can fairly argue either way on that... We're talking one match for crying out loud)
When a senior minister is publicly weighing in on whether an individual should play in a professional sport match...
... We're in the Bad Place, aren't we?
No, we're in a Very Good Place. Organizations like the ECB who should never have become involved in the miserable practice of offence archaeology in the first place are getting a gentle reminder of what proper government is all about.
The ECB are also totally inconsistent. Overton, screaming racist abuse at a batsman, yeah that's ok we will pick him, Hales, you got done for drugs multiple times, kicked some defenceless twat in the head and being a consistent all round disruptive bellend, yeap we will kept picking you....until Morgan finally said I am absolutely not having him, he causes so much trouble...come on Morgs, he is a good player, you can f##k right off if I am having him in my team.
You did what, you wrote some idiotic tweets 10 years ago, apology now, ok no prob boss, right good, your fired. You what....
The best thing the ECB could do is run awareness courses on social media, for all the teenagers looking to turn professional, and have a couple of consultants go through with a big delete button.
My cousin's son is on the Warks youth team. His social media twitter account is clean as a whistle and 100% cricket focussed.
Sensible young lad. The best piece of advice I’d give to a teenager who might want to end up in the public eye or a responsible job, is to not have any social media apps on their phone. Make that sort of engagement something that’s done on the computer, and don’t jump on the computer after a night out on the tiles.
I didn't have to worry about any of this when I was at university.
The terrible truth about today's world is that if what you say can be recorded then you will be held accountable for it, with no time limit.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
“Savings” from the policy of populist sop to the extreme right wing commentariats and other supporters of New Global Britain. £4billion.
Money given to Dido to play with on Test & Trace £38billion.
What the **** is your post? Seriously, what **** is your post?
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
“Savings” from the policy of populist sop to the extreme right wing commentariats and other supporters of New Global Britain. £4billion.
Money given to Dido to play with on Test & Trace £38billion.
What the **** is your post? Seriously, what **** is your post?
The G7 tax deal is apparently not what it claims to be:
• The 10% tax threshold means companies won't pay tax unless their profits are more than that
• Therefore, Amazon's profit (over $8bn but under 10%) probably means not a single penny extra in tax
It would appear to capture Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google (Alphabet).
I reckon 4 out of 5 aren't bad for a ripping up of about 100 years of tax theory.
Why does there need to be an exemption?
The short answer is that I believe it comes from the existing international instrument on base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) - BEPS being code for relocating your profits to a low tax jurisdiction.
The slightly longer answer is that the low-margin businesses are considered at lower risk. In simple terms, Amazon retail makes a smaller margin because it incurs significant costs in the form of staff, offices, warehouses, and equipment, which are considered to have a secondary beneficial effect in terms of taxation, e.g. PAYE.
The worst offenders, those that own the IP rights, for example, are very high margin businesses.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
True but if they were that could create 30 plus Independent rebel MPs, meaning the Tory majority would be slashed from 80 to 20 overnight even without an election
Any other scientists with dubious qualifications to pontificate on public health measures in a pandemic want to join me in founding the "Positive About Reopening, Set Loose, Enjoy Yourselves" consortium as a counterpoint to iSAGE?
I have a chemistry degree which has sat unused for 12 years, can I join? I think I'd qualify for indy Sage.
Yes, I don't see why not. Shoud qualify you to focus on the gender inequalities of Covid vaccination among the over 80 cohort? Turbotubbs can look at the psychological impacts on NHS staff of easing lockdown on 21 June. Having a GCSE in biology, I'll take biological changes induced by long Covid.
We really need some sociologists/philsophers on board so we can develop a view of mechanism of action of rare vaccine side effects and the applicability of NPIs in a post-vaccine Britain.
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
I doubt he'd expel all of them, cutting his majority significantly, over what is, at the end of the day, upholding a manifesto commitment, no matter how unpopular. But maybe I underestimate him.
What I would do instead is put pressure on them through friendly members of their constituency associations, etc.
Given the new boundaries are announced in 35 minutes the whips really should get new jobs if they can't apply a bit of pressure.
Shame we can no longer see what the people of the region of England feel about the matter.
Not sure that question would work here. "The country" would be coded as the UK and "the region" coded as the particular county lived in. Not sure many would place county above country. Cornwall maybe?
I think obviously the country is the UK, but the region is surely England/Scotland/Wales/NI?
Does anyone in England think of England as a region?
Either Counties, or North West/South East etc are typically used as regions, never England.
It is the first subnational division of the country, which is surely what the survey is trying to find out. Of course you can Balkanise England further, as Labour were desperate to do in the 2000s. But the survey would then be a little redundant, as very very few will identify with "North West" compared to England or UK. The question of English vs UK identity, however, is a live and important one.
(Although I'm surprised that they haven't gone for the Lander as the subnational regions in Germany).
The question of English vs UK identity is a real one, as is Scots vs UK, but that's a question of national identities. England and Scotland are recognised as nations within a nation, not regions.
The question is about "country" not nation, which is a much vaguer term. The UK is a country, like the United States, Canada or Australia, recognised as such by foreign countries (see e.g. https://www.state.gov/independent-states-in-the-world/ or here https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/states.htm) and the United Nations (https://www.worldometers.info/united-nations/). Our four members are the first subnational regions, like states in America or Australia or provinces in Canada. England isn't a country in any generally accepted sense - the OED defines a country as "an area of land that has its own government" and England doesn't even have that.
Wales was recognised as a country in its own right and not a principality in 2011.
They are ceremonial countries, the only sovereign country in GB is the UK
As GB is in the UK (of GB and NI) you might want to reconsider your grasp of our country before making such strident and confident statements. "Great Britain" is the amalgam of England, Wales and Scotland. The United Kingdom adds Norther Ireland to Great Britain.
Again, its about the difference between a nation, a state, and a nation-state. "Great Britain" is none of these.
Northern Ireland is also a mere ceremonial province of the UK.
However obviously Ireland as an island includes Ireland which is a sovereign nation separate to the UK so my statement only applied to Great Britain
"Great Britain" is not a "sovereign country". Your statement was plain wrong.
No, my statement that the UK is the only sovereign country in GB was absolutely correct.
It is not the only sovereign country in Ireland though as Ireland also includes the Republic of Ireland as well as Northern Ireland
It's a short step from here to HYUFD suggesting that we field a GB team at rugby, football, cricket and netball...
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
“Savings” from the policy of populist sop to the extreme right wing commentariats and other supporters of New Global Britain. £4billion.
Money given to Dido to play with on Test & Trace £38billion.
What the **** is your post? Seriously, what **** is your post?
So test and trace paid for in under ten years?
£38billion blown on consultants for moonshot with very mixed results. £4billion for fresh water saving Thousands of children’s lives, where warped politicians and journalists spent years lying to British public was going to the Indian Space programme.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
By the ‘further emancipation of women’ I take it you mean releasing Muslim women from the burqa, FGM, sharia law and all the misogynistic claptrap that comes from conservative Islam?
That is what you mean, right? Because we’re talking hundreds of millions of women who endure this
Or do you actually mean ‘50% of boardrooms must be female’ and more such egregious nonsense designed to benefit a small clique of middle class women, possibly your neighbours?
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
“Savings” from the policy of populist sop to the extreme right wing commentariats and other supporters of New Global Britain. £4billion.
Money given to Dido to play with on Test & Trace £38billion.
What the **** is your post? Seriously, what **** is your post?
So test and trace paid for in under ten years?
£38billion blown on consultants for moonshot with very mixed results. £4billion for fresh water saving Thousands of children’s lives, where warped politicians and journalists spent years lying to British public was going to the Indian Space programme.
Hm, without the counterfactual who knows what effect it had? Maybe marginal, hard to imagine it was detrimental. As for where funding goes, I think it is a true statement that aid went to India. It is also a true statement that India has a space program.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
By the ‘further emancipation of women’ I take it you mean releasing Muslim women from the burqa, FGM, sharia law and all the misogynistic claptrap that comes from conservative Islam?
That is what you mean, right? Because we’re talking hundreds of millions of women who endure this
Or do you actually mean ‘50% of boardrooms must be female’ and more such egregious nonsense designed to benefit a small clique of middle class women, possibly your neighbours?
‘I suspect that a lot of the people saying how ridiculous the Ollie Robinson suspension is because we all make terrible mistakes when we’re teenagers have no problem with Shamima Begum being stripped of her British citizenship.’
Just for the record I have CONSIDERABLE problems with the idea of the silly girl being stripped of her citizenship. She's almost certainly done, and certainly participated in some very nasty things indeed, for which a prison sentence may well be justified. But that doesn't justify being abandoned at what 18-19 to the vengeful 'mercies' of the Iraqis.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
Why, what an excellent list of ideas - you've clearly been giving this some thought!
All conservatives know in our hearts that one day we and all we care about will be no more than dust, crushed behind the merciless grindstone of entropy. But not today. And before we go we might just push the forces of dissolution and disorder back a step a two and make them pay dearly for every inch of ground...
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
My guess is that Johnson will do some but not all planned easing on June 21 and make a big play of enjoying the summer. Which would be a No for the bet, I think?
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
“That nothing ever seems to stick drives his opponents mad. He won the Conservative leadership just weeks after it was reported that an argument with his fiancée, Carrie Symonds, became so heated, neighbors called the police. He won the biggest parliamentary majority in a generation despite breaking promises over when and how he would secure a Brexit deal. Time and again, when controversy has engulfed him, he has emerged unscathed.
Part of his electoral genius lies in his ability to stop his opponents from thinking straight: In their hatred for him, they cannot see why he is popular, nor what to do about it.”
“That nothing ever seems to stick drives his opponents mad. He won the Conservative leadership just weeks after it was reported that an argument with his fiancée, Carrie Symonds, became so heated, neighbors called the police. He won the biggest parliamentary majority in a generation despite breaking promises over when and how he would secure a Brexit deal. Time and again, when controversy has engulfed him, he has emerged unscathed.
Part of his electoral genius lies in his ability to stop his opponents from thinking straight: In their hatred for him, they cannot see why he is popular, nor what to do about it.”
We Brits are now more confident about the economy than at any time since before the Brexit referendum. Net economic optimism is highest since April 2015, with 53 per cent of Britons confident things will improve and only 31 per cent expecting things to get worse, found @ipsosMORI
“That nothing ever seems to stick drives his opponents mad. He won the Conservative leadership just weeks after it was reported that an argument with his fiancée, Carrie Symonds, became so heated, neighbors called the police. He won the biggest parliamentary majority in a generation despite breaking promises over when and how he would secure a Brexit deal. Time and again, when controversy has engulfed him, he has emerged unscathed.
Part of his electoral genius lies in his ability to stop his opponents from thinking straight: In their hatred for him, they cannot see why he is popular, nor what to do about it.”
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
My guess is that Johnson will do some but not all planned easing on June 21 and make a big play of enjoying the summer. Which would be a No for the bet, I think?
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
This comment does provide some interesting support for my thesis about Trump and Brexit being the origins of the culture war, as it stands at the moment. The 2020 protests in the US and Britain (they never seemed to really take off elsewhere) are largely a left wing phenomenon and seem to be driven by some sort of derangement at Brexit and Donald Trump - the idea that there are deeply entrenched racist, xenophobic and sexist behaviours that have led to these things happening, and that to save humanity and progress they must be exterminated at almost any cost.
I think the writer is basically right though, in the sense that the left are winning the culture war.
I did ask Kinabalu for his view on the chinese government, specifically whether it is racist or antiracist. I would be interested to hear this, as I don't think I got a response.
Good news for Boris, the question though is whether the rebels still vote against the ARIA Bill if it excludes their amendment
It’s not a great look though, to try to block a bill to create a new agency to help drive growth an innovation in cutting edge technologies simply to send some extra money overseas. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise.
The rebels, May, Tugendhadt, Hunt, Mercer, Ellwood etc are all people who have fallen out with Boris and would have no problem giving him a bloody nose over this, they could proclaim the moral high ground on overseas aid even if it brings down the entire tech bill and say they have forced a government rethink while enjoying humiliating the PM
They could then enjoy the moral high ground of being immediately expelled from the party...
I doubt he'd expel all of them, cutting his majority significantly, over what is, at the end of the day, upholding a manifesto commitment, no matter how unpopular. But maybe I underestimate him.
What I would do instead is put pressure on them through friendly members of their constituency associations, etc.
Given the new boundaries are announced in 35 minutes the whips really should get new jobs if they can't apply a bit of pressure.
Was it Lyndon Johnson, who said the first rule of politics is that you need to be able to count?
The rebels don’t have the numbers, even if they can get their amendment past the whips and Speaker.
The finance ministers in G7 were negotiating how they wanted to resolve the issue. However, other countries have an interest and so this is only the start of the end game.
The first proposal (Pillar 1) is all about taxing rights. Currently a global trading business is only taxed on their profits where they have a permanent establishment. So sales in the UK are not sufficient.
So the Pillar 1 proposal is to build on top of the existing permanent establishment to give taxing rights on profits to the country where sales arise, but only for multinational business with a profit margin of over 10% and then only 20% of those super profits above 10%.
The US is not particularly in favour of Pillar 1 as it gives other countries taxing rights over their companies.
The second proposal (Pillar 2) is to create a minimum tax rate of at least 15%. The idea is that the business HQ would be taxed at this minimum tax rate on the multinational global profits to the extent that they had not paid sufficient overseas taxes. In the G7 communiqué it mentions a minimum 15% on a country by country basis.
Pillar 2 limits global businesses the ability to use tax havens to shelter profits.
The US likes Pillar 2 as it could obtain additional taxes from all the business headquartered in the US.
For the UK, it could gain taxes from both Pillars.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
I know you love government by public opinion, but it's not always the right way to go. I'd guess that the 'public' wouldn't care less if overseas aid was cut to zero; presumably you'd support this if a majority supported it? The logic of your position is that government would unleash some pretty unpalatable policies (e.g. closure of all mosques in the UK, anyone?) if it followed the whims of the Great British Public.
Any other scientists with dubious qualifications to pontificate on public health measures in a pandemic want to join me in founding the "Positive About Reopening, Set Loose, Enjoy Yourselves" consortium as a counterpoint to iSAGE?
I have a chemistry degree which has sat unused for 12 years, can I join? I think I'd qualify for indy Sage.
Yes, I don't see why not. Shoud qualify you to focus on the gender inequalities of Covid vaccination among the over 80 cohort? Turbotubbs can look at the psychological impacts on NHS staff of easing lockdown on 21 June. Having a GCSE in biology, I'll take biological changes induced by long Covid.
We really need some sociologists/philsophers on board so we can develop a view of mechanism of action of rare vaccine side effects and the applicability of NPIs in a post-vaccine Britain.
Room for an employment lawyer?
I can't help thinking it might be unwise to deny employment to an employment lawyer, without some very well thought out grounds for doing so. So yes, of course
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Murray’s book seems v similar to Christopher Caldwell’s “Reflections on the Revolution in Europe” which is scarily true
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Am I not correct in thinking that throughout history Europe has been populated by migration from North Africa and the Levant?
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
There's a strong case for it to serve British influence and interests, but it's rarely well made.
Usually, what's most often heard is bleating about helping the world's poorest and people view this as elite politicians virtue-signalling at their expense, whereas they think such donations should be a private matter.
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
My guess is that Johnson will do some but not all planned easing on June 21 and make a big play of enjoying the summer. Which would be a No for the bet, I think?
The big one is social distancing and venue capacity limits. If those go away on 21st, then the vast majority of people will be happy. Everything else can be guidance, except overseas travel restrictions.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
Why, what an excellent list of ideas - you've clearly been giving this some thought!
All conservatives know in our hearts that one day we and all we care about will be no more than dust, crushed behind the merciless grindstone of entropy. But not today. And before we go we might just push the forces of dissolution and disorder back a step a two and make them pay dearly for every inch of ground...
I'm going to have to save that reply and pin it up on my wall - its cheered me up .
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Murray’s book seems v similar to Christopher Caldwell’s “Reflections on the Revolution in Europe” which is scarily true
Thanks on the list - just enjoying Sumption right now.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
I know you love government by public opinion, but it's not always the right way to go. I'd guess that the 'public' wouldn't care less if overseas aid was cut to zero; presumably you'd support this if a majority supported it? The logic of your position is that government would unleash some pretty unpalatable policies (e.g. closure of all mosques in the UK, anyone?) if it followed the whims of the Great British Public.
I believe that in a democracy the government should strive to do what the demos wants, with very few exceptions indeed. That the Left resiles so forcefully and instinctively from this notion might explain why they have such difficulty in winning the trust of said demos...
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
My guess is that Johnson will do some but not all planned easing on June 21 and make a big play of enjoying the summer. Which would be a No for the bet, I think?
The big one is social distancing and venue capacity limits. If those go away on 21st, then the vast majority of people will be happy. Everything else can be guidance, except overseas travel restrictions.
I think they will stay until July or August unless there is a dramatic change in the infection rate this week or everyone in hospital currently miraculously recovers.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Am I not correct in thinking that throughout history Europe has been populated by migration from North Africa and the Levant?
I am none too sure of historic people flows. I know there was a lot of migration from France to England around 1,000 years ago.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
There's a strong case for it to serve British influence and interests, but it's rarely well made.
Usually, what's most often heard is bleating about helping the world's poorest and people view this as elite politicians virtue-signalling at their expense, whereas they think such donations should be a private matter.
What chance that Labour fall right into the massive bear trap the government have put in front of them?
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
By the ‘further emancipation of women’ I take it you mean releasing Muslim women from the burqa, FGM, sharia law and all the misogynistic claptrap that comes from conservative Islam?
That is what you mean, right? Because we’re talking hundreds of millions of women who endure this
Or do you actually mean ‘50% of boardrooms must be female’ and more such egregious nonsense designed to benefit a small clique of middle class women, possibly your neighbours?
That is not an either/or. And I most certainly do not exclude islam, no.
Dealing with Covid from now on is relatively simple. Just put a big fence around anywhere starting with a B and throw the keys away. Oh, and close the bloody airports. Incarcerate the MD of Ryanair. Mind you, that would be a good idea even without Covid.
The G7 tax deal is apparently not what it claims to be:
• The 10% tax threshold means companies won't pay tax unless their profits are more than that
• Therefore, Amazon's profit (over $8bn but under 10%) probably means not a single penny extra in tax
It would appear to capture Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google (Alphabet).
I reckon 4 out of 5 aren't bad for a ripping up of about 100 years of tax theory.
Why does there need to be an exemption?
It isn't an exception - its setting a tolerance level which in this case is 10%. Yes Amazon are an essential retailer dodgy bastards to pay no tax but as the vastly loss-making parts of their operation finally turn to profit they will clear it as well.
We can't just have an "Amazon Tax" because certain people have declared them to be evil. There have to be clear accountancy rules applied universally - this agreement does that and its a huge step forward.
GB News is about setting the agenda not making money surely?
Maybe, but how do they survive without money? £60m is going to last them all of 9 months.
Its worth noting they're substantially backed by Discovery, which has launched its own streaming service. We have Discovery+ but only because it was free for 12 months with Sky - can't imagine currently paying for it when that 12 month period expires. Though my wife likes it for Discovery's many true crime documentaries.
The interplay of Discovery and GB News will be interesting. Currently I don't see Discovery+ really taking off in the way Disney+ has.
Discovery has just merged with Warner Media, the owners of CNN and CNN international. I can't imagine that there is much appetite to have two independent news channels.
What's interesting is that the new merged company may not renew with Sky which means Sky Atlantic loses all of the HBO content and they push it all through Discovery+ making it a legitimate competitor to D+ and Netflix.
That would be the only other thing outside of the footy that really drives any subscriptions for Sky. I wouldn't want to have any money in Sky, it is only a matter of time before either the clubs themselves launch EPL+ or they do a deal with a Disney (like the UFC did, where UFC get to earn a s##t tonne and Disney, via EPSN, get some fight cards and points on the PPVs, which they drive by hyping up).
Then what have they got, nobody gets it for the movies now, no Sky Atlantic, means no top tier US telly and no football, means you pay £100 a month for some golf and cricket.
Sky Q is a really good technical platform, but we use it most of the time to access the streaming apps - which can be access via the TV's own Smart TV platform nowadays.
A few years ago after moving house we went a while with streaming platforms only, via a Roku stick, but it was irritating as not all streaming platforms were available on any individual stick at the time. Nowadays all the apps seem to have become universally available on any platform, which drops the incentive of having one major hub to deliver them all if the TV can do it itself natively.
At some point will have to question whether Sky is worth still paying for any more or not.
Sky Q was a good idea but 10 years too late. From about 2004 onwards I setup my own distributed TV system built using Windows Media Center. Allowed one hub PC with a quad TV tuner to record up to 4 channels simultaneously and you could then access remotely using another device on the home network. Worked really well but was a bit of a faff to maintain. 10 or so years later it was not worth having because you could just stream on-demand all the content that used to be recorded. I now just use Fire TV devices to stream what I need. The TVs are still connected to an aerial for immediate switch-on of the news sometime. I don't understand anyone paying for a Sky subscription now.
Oh God - Windows Media Centre! Those were the days, back when Windows was a viable platform to do stuff you wanted as opposed to todays bloatware where its a struggle to remove all the slow down crap for the stuff they want you to do.
As for Sky Q its ok, but for Prime / Flix / Disney etc my LG TV is quicker and easier to use than the Sky box.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
I think actually that most people don't realise what is going on and the significance of what is happening, in the way that perhaps you or I do.
If the government were serious about this they would have acted more decisively. They know that they have a small constituency who is up in arms about this type of thing but most of the pressure is coming from within the party and their backbench MP's, so they have to do something, but they also know that the issue just doesn't have much salience with the wider population; who naively associate woke twittermobs with the achievement of social progress and equality.
We are in a period of overshoot right now. Institutions, the government, even, is keen to shift the parameters of tolerance for racism or hint of racism.
As with most things, there is an equilibrium and then when there needs to be a change there is often an overshoot before the pendulum swings back. We are now in one of those periods and eventually things will settle down but with a lower tolerance for racism or even perceived racism.
And that is fine. Just grit your teeth through this time, voice under your breath about political correctness gone mad and look forward to moving into the next phase and era.
I understand why people see instances like this as a step towards a less racist society. I would have done so myself, until very recently; I have always been deeply uneasy about the type of humour which got the guy in to trouble (although I haven't been following the story in much detail).
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
Yes there is plenty wrong with this particular instance especially as he has apologised (like you I haven't seen the comments). I would hope that in time he will be invited back. He is already contrite so yes that is the shame. But in the great sweep of history, with an acknowledgment that it is rough to say the least on the individuals, the direction is an OK one imo.
All that I can say is that I would have completely agreed with you until a couple of years ago when I read the strange death of Europe by Douglas Murray. I didn't want to believe what I was reading and I spent a long time trying to find counter-arguments to it. In the end though I had to accept that he was right and my thinking on this subject was completely changed. To this day I have never found a compelling counter argument to this book. I have an open mind if anyone on here can point me in the direction of one.
I am a big fan of Douglas Murray and will have to read the book.
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Murray’s book seems v similar to Christopher Caldwell’s “Reflections on the Revolution in Europe” which is scarily true
Thanks on the list - just enjoying Sumption right now.
I read Sumptions book (law in a time of crisis) and was rather disappointed by it beyond the first three chapters on history which I found interesting (as I am a history enthusiast). The Reith lectures, particularly the first and second one on the expanding reach of law in society (on radio 4) were brilliant and should have provoked more discussion than they have.
WRT to the Begum case, I thought it was wrong that she got her citizenship taken away in the way it was. If you look at the Blair era laws, they are terrifying. As I understand it, you can get your citizenship removed if it is deemed to be conducive to the public good.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
There's a strong case for it to serve British influence and interests, but it's rarely well made.
Usually, what's most often heard is bleating about helping the world's poorest and people view this as elite politicians virtue-signalling at their expense, whereas they think such donations should be a private matter.
What chance that Labour fall right into the massive bear trap the government have put in front of them?
Massive. Yes they are right and the government wrong on foreign aid. But pick your battles. The only foreign aid that anyone needs to prioritise at the moment is doses of vaccine - park the money and focus on vaccinating the world so that millions don't die and so that we can unlock travel for holidays.
Excellent. Perhaps those 'rebels' could get back to doing what their constituents actually want instead of trying to find new ways to give even more money away when we've just spent hundreds of billions fighting a pandemic. Just a thought.
Maybe not all their constituents are clear on this matter. Besides, the way our pseudo-democracy is supposed to work is that MPs are sent to Westminster to apply their judgement to complex matters, which sometimes means going against the party line of their own party. They are not meant to be rubber stamps of the executive, nor are they supposed to only take into account the views of frothing swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express. Just sayin'!
2/3s of the country are "swivel-eyed right wingers who get their opinions from the Daily Express"? Including 44% of Labour and 49% of LD voters? What country do you live in?
Indeed - Nigel does have a bit of difficulty with things that are wildly popular in the country but not chez Foremain:
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
I know you love government by public opinion, but it's not always the right way to go. I'd guess that the 'public' wouldn't care less if overseas aid was cut to zero; presumably you'd support this if a majority supported it? The logic of your position is that government would unleash some pretty unpalatable policies (e.g. closure of all mosques in the UK, anyone?) if it followed the whims of the Great British Public.
I believe that in a democracy the government should strive to do what the demos wants, with very few exceptions indeed. That the Left resiles so forcefully and instinctively from this notion might explain why they have such difficulty in winning the trust of said demos...
I wonder if those "very few exceptions" may include things you happen to disagree with? Nationalising the railways, taxing the super-rich more are pretty popular with the demos, I believe.
The Govt vs the ECB. I reckon most people make the govt right on this one
‘ BREAKING: Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the England and Wales Cricket Board has gone “over the top” by suspending Ollie Robinson for old sexist and racist messages posted on social media.’
They are also a decade old and written by a teenager. The teenager is now a man and has rightly apologised. The ECB has gone over the top by suspending him and should think again.
His job title should be changed to Culture WAR Secretary.
Indeed - and he's fighting it like a bloody champion. It's so refreshing to have the Government knocking down woke nonsense on the record and standing with the 80%+ of the electorate who exhibit a normal sense of proportion...
A losing battle though. The culture war is unwinnable for the right. It's not even possible to imagine what the right "winning it" would look like. Mandatory slaver statues in town centres? Hate Speech laws amended to exclude racism and replace with whinging about racism? Abortion back in the shadows? The school curriculum returns to promoting the merits of Empire? A new compulsory A level in 'Common Sense' with at its very heart the irreducible truth that men are men, women are women, and sheep are nervous?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
Why, what an excellent list of ideas - you've clearly been giving this some thought!
All conservatives know in our hearts that one day we and all we care about will be no more than dust, crushed behind the merciless grindstone of entropy. But not today. And before we go we might just push the forces of dissolution and disorder back a step a two and make them pay dearly for every inch of ground...
I'm going to have to save that reply and pin it up on my wall - its cheered me up .
My pleasure. And - whisper it - if you cast an eye over the long sweep of world history, 'Progress' doesn't always win; it can be halted, repulsed, or at least held up for centuries and millennia at a time.
GB News is about setting the agenda not making money surely?
Maybe, but how do they survive without money? £60m is going to last them all of 9 months.
Its worth noting they're substantially backed by Discovery, which has launched its own streaming service. We have Discovery+ but only because it was free for 12 months with Sky - can't imagine currently paying for it when that 12 month period expires. Though my wife likes it for Discovery's many true crime documentaries.
The interplay of Discovery and GB News will be interesting. Currently I don't see Discovery+ really taking off in the way Disney+ has.
Discovery has just merged with Warner Media, the owners of CNN and CNN international. I can't imagine that there is much appetite to have two independent news channels.
What's interesting is that the new merged company may not renew with Sky which means Sky Atlantic loses all of the HBO content and they push it all through Discovery+ making it a legitimate competitor to D+ and Netflix.
That would be the only other thing outside of the footy that really drives any subscriptions for Sky. I wouldn't want to have any money in Sky, it is only a matter of time before either the clubs themselves launch EPL+ or they do a deal with a Disney (like the UFC did, where UFC get to earn a s##t tonne and Disney, via EPSN, get some fight cards and points on the PPVs, which they drive by hyping up).
Then what have they got, nobody gets it for the movies now, no Sky Atlantic, means no top tier US telly and no football, means you pay £100 a month for some golf and cricket.
Sky Q is a really good technical platform, but we use it most of the time to access the streaming apps - which can be access via the TV's own Smart TV platform nowadays.
A few years ago after moving house we went a while with streaming platforms only, via a Roku stick, but it was irritating as not all streaming platforms were available on any individual stick at the time. Nowadays all the apps seem to have become universally available on any platform, which drops the incentive of having one major hub to deliver them all if the TV can do it itself natively.
At some point will have to question whether Sky is worth still paying for any more or not.
The interface of FireTV isn't the greatest, but it is all built on Andriod and wouldn't be hard to improve (in fact, if you have some skills you can already do it). These days, a tiny cheap usb size stick is all that is required to have all this work.
Just in my lounge I have SkyQ, a PS5, the Samsung Smart TV, and an old Firestick that will all access the various streaming services. Plus phones, tablets and laptops. I actually use an NVidia Shield 2 for everything apart from Sky now though. And everybody knows somebody who knows a bloke who can do "stuff" for the odd sports event or movie, don't they?
‘I suspect that a lot of the people saying how ridiculous the Ollie Robinson suspension is because we all make terrible mistakes when we’re teenagers have no problem with Shamima Begum being stripped of her British citizenship.’
Sir Keir's going to be crying again once he reads that...
Though Labour would gain seats from the Tories on those figures - even before a likely switch of Green voters at a GE which would reduce the Tory lead to circa 6%.
Politically, there's risk/reward here either way: 1. Open as planned, we beat (at least most of) Europe on getting life back to normal. No significant third wave, no more lockdowns: all hail Boris 2. Open as planned. Significant third wave, lockodnw later in the year: Boris the bungler with blood on his hands, people will look again at the earlier cock-ups too 3. Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of) Europe and they don't have a significant third wave and it's clear we were too cautious: Boris in hock to the mad scientists, vaccine bounce disappears as it all looks a bit pointless if we didn't unlock any quicker 4 Delay opening, we fall behind (bits of Europe) but those bits of Europe have a big third wave and lock down again late summer/autumn while a short delay here means no more lockdowns: Boris called this one right, good job
Opening as planned has both the biggest upside and biggest downside, politically. I still think we can open now if we agree (and it's made clear to the country) that the lockdowns were to prevent NHS collapse - if that's not a real risk (it seems unlikely) then we open up. Now does Johnson have the cajones for it?
I think the before Christmas situation is a bit different - Johnson eventually took the route of lockdown, but well after most scientists were warning about imminent doom (increasing cases, with increasing hospitalisations and very little immunity in the population - different to now!) and even then it was only a partial lockdown of the country.
I would add a couple of points.
Firstly the context is very different from the previous lockdowns. No-one is talking repeating a March 2020 or January 2021 lockdown. Vaccines remove the need for that . We're taking about the need to continue with some non medical interventions for a period of time or whether they can be removed entirely.
Secondly the driver for this is the healthcare system. The NHS was in a poor state going into Covid and is even more fragile now. A relatively modest third wave could cause significant damage, but the public aren't necessarily on top of the issues.
Independent* SAGE are demanding a full lockdown. They are implying by this that they believe the vaccines are not working.
The vaccines are working. We have evidence of this in the reversal of the earlier situation, where the elderly were most likely to be hospitalised and die from COVID. While we watched, the lines crossed over, and the unvaccinated, younger groups became more likely suffer serious medical consequences.
We have further evidence of this in the various statements about vaccine prevalence among those hospitalised and dying.
*They bring to mind Lord Trenchard's comment - "Independent of whom? God?"
I don't state an opinion on whether Independent SAGE is correct in its analysis, but to be clear it argues against January style lockdown in its statement here. The discussion, as I said, is about whether to continue with some non medical interventions. They also want to reinstate facemasks in English schools
Yeah - I noticed that. If I were to be pressed for a non-expert opinion, if you wanted a big-bang style opening, then the day the schools break up for summer would not be a bad time for it. You have a major transmission vector shut down for six weeks giving plenty of time for catch up. Most/some restrictions could go on 21 June. But even Cosplay SAGE are not advocating a return to January.
My guess is that Johnson will do some but not all planned easing on June 21 and make a big play of enjoying the summer. Which would be a No for the bet, I think?
The big one is social distancing and venue capacity limits. If those go away on 21st, then the vast majority of people will be happy. Everything else can be guidance, except overseas travel restrictions.
I think they will stay until July or August unless there is a dramatic change in the infection rate this week or everyone in hospital currently miraculously recovers.
Currently in the entire SW of England there are 13 patients in hospital with covid, and only one on a ventilator. I struggle to see the issue with relaxing social distancing and removing mask requirements for entertainment. Its summer, vaccination continues apace and the vulnerable are as safe as they are likely to get. Lets get on with it. In 6-8 weeks we will like Israel, with cases plummeting too.
Comments
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/25/two-thirds-britons-support-cutting-foreign-aid-bud
I reckon 4 out of 5 aren't bad for a ripping up of about 100 years of tax theory.
What would they do if a cricketer tweeted some thing like 'Johnson is a complete bellend'?
The move is near-universally popular among Conservative voters, 92% of whom are in support. Support is lower among Labour and Lib Dem voters, but the move is still more popular than not: Labour voters back it by 44% to 37% and Lib Dem voters do so by 49% to 35%.
Foreign aid spending levels have long been consistently unpopular with the British public, topping our tracker on what sector people think the government spends too much on by a wide margin.
Oops!
I think the first problem here, which you have to reflect on very carefully, is that there is no forgiveness or redemption. There is literally no way back for the those who have transgressed. The mob are not satisfied until a life is literally been destroyed. There is no protection against this fate, what legal protections theoretically exist (ie innocent before being proved guilty, due process, rule of law) are no longer effective.
https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1401833676317593600?s=20
I mean it is really unsurprising that a tax on revenue needs to consider margin.
If Tesco, for example, were taxed on revenue it would face a much larger real tax rate than other businesses of comparative profit.
(In fact, if Tesco ditched its unrelated property holdings, its margin would shrink even more. I think it has done some of that over the last few years).
Fauci in ever deeper water
‘WATCH: @SteveHiltonx shares new proof that Dr. Fauci lied to congress about the NIAID-funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab #NextRevFNC #PandemicOrigins’
https://twitter.com/nextrevfnc/status/1401748869424234498?s=21
The Lancet is hauled in for questioning
‘Elite journals under scrutiny over role in Wuhan lab leak debate:
Critics argue that The Lancet failed to disclose potential conflict of interest when dismissing the leak theory’
https://twitter.com/rschon/status/1401838434122145792?s=21
Two scientists, writing in the Wall Street Journal, say there is proof it came from the lab
‘A new op-ed piece from the Wall Street Journal point to two key points as to how this virus was engineered in a lab.’
https://twitter.com/crndigitaltalk/status/1401701697106309123?s=21
This is like a virological Watergate, but with 10 million dead
We really need some sociologists/philsophers on board so we can develop a view of mechanism of action of rare vaccine side effects and the applicability of NPIs in a post-vaccine Britain.
Thoughts and prayers with @Leon.
The poor lamb has had to focus on UFOs since the sun came out.
The argument for reducing the time until criminal records being expunged is that it effects the employment prospects of the people concerned....
What I would do instead is put pressure on them through friendly members of their constituency associations, etc.
"The game is still on," an MP says.
Ringleader Andrew Mitchell has been told by the Speaker no final decisions taken.
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1401843955130683392
‘I suspect that a lot of the people saying how ridiculous the Ollie Robinson suspension is because we all make terrible mistakes when we’re teenagers have no problem with Shamima Begum being stripped of her British citizenship.’
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1401782166237990915?s=21
(PM intervention DESPITE multiple reports that Speaker @LindsayHoyle_MP is to pull the plug on the vote. Is someone trying to bounce the Speaker...?)
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-hits-the-phones-to-avoid-major-commons-defeat-on-aid-b939127.html
Ah, je m’excuse : l’année de la langue française
Seven months before taking over the EU’s rotating Council presidency, the French government is mulling plans to revive the declining use and visibility of la langue de Molière.
https://www.politico.eu/article/in-2022-make-french-language-great-again-eu-presidency/
A clear majority say it should start this year, not next year.
@IpsosMORI in tongiht's @EveningStandard is full of insights and stories
Thread>
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-start-covid-inquiry-this-year-majority-say-ipsos-mori-poll-b939083.html
The terrible truth about today's world is that if what you say can be recorded then you will be held accountable for it, with no time limit.
Money given to Dido to play with on Test & Trace £38billion.
What the **** is your post? Seriously, what **** is your post?
Not a chance. The right winning the culture war is a Not Happening Event. We're changing and the forces driving it are far stronger than those standing in the way. All the smarts and vision and momentum are on the side of change. An honest reckoning with the white supremacy legacy of our imperialism. Further emancipation of women. A 'live and let live' approach to (eg) gender non-conformity. These movements will continue until their goals are achieved and one day people will look back and wonder why on earth there was so much resistance. It'll become clear with distance and detachment how it essentially boiled down to reactionary fossils who were clinging to old privileges and were thus deeply comfortable with the prejudices keeping those privileges in place.
No, we on the left will win the culture war, Mr Blue, I have no doubt whatsoever about that. The bummer is the price. It already stands at a Brexit, a Trump term, and a Johnson/Tory landslide, and it might have further to rise yet. We might need to lose a couple more elections before the public wise up.
The slightly longer answer is that the low-margin businesses are considered at lower risk. In simple terms, Amazon retail makes a smaller margin because it incurs significant costs in the form of staff, offices, warehouses, and equipment, which are considered to have a secondary beneficial effect in terms of taxation, e.g. PAYE.
The worst offenders, those that own the IP rights, for example, are very high margin businesses.
That is what you mean, right? Because we’re talking hundreds of millions of women who endure this
Or do you actually mean ‘50% of boardrooms must be female’ and more such egregious nonsense designed to benefit a small clique of middle class women, possibly your neighbours?
She's almost certainly done, and certainly participated in some very nasty things indeed, for which a prison sentence may well be justified. But that doesn't justify being abandoned at what 18-19 to the vengeful 'mercies' of the Iraqis.
All conservatives know in our hearts that one day we and all we care about will be no more than dust, crushed behind the merciless grindstone of entropy. But not today. And before we go we might just push the forces of dissolution and disorder back a step a two and make them pay dearly for every inch of ground...
Problem is, this only happens by consent.
Cons govt, lockdown forever, banning people for thought crimes.
People want this. Some are good calls, some are bad there is no "moral mean" which people will revert to.
Now broadly this is a good thing if we look at some of the practices of the past vs today even the very recent past.
But as I also said, there will be overshoots along the way. This might be one of them, and to use the analogy that someone posted, I think that Shamima Begum should absolutely be allowed back into the country to face whatever the appropriate justice might be bearing in mind she was a child when she went away, and likewise I think that persecuting someone for a tweet they made when they were a teenager is not appropriate.
The latter instance, however, is caught up in a broader move (BLM, Oscars too White, etc) towards greater racial equality. This is a good thing imo.
Part of his electoral genius lies in his ability to stop his opponents from thinking straight: In their hatred for him, they cannot see why he is popular, nor what to do about it.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/07/boris-johnson-minister-of-chaos/619010/
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1401849045958660099?s=20
Which is probably whats propping up the government's poll ratings.....
Maybe that explains everything
I think the writer is basically right though, in the sense that the left are winning the culture war.
I did ask Kinabalu for his view on the chinese government, specifically whether it is racist or antiracist. I would be interested to hear this, as I don't think I got a response.
The rebels don’t have the numbers, even if they can get their amendment past the whips and Speaker.
The finance ministers in G7 were negotiating how they wanted to resolve the issue. However, other countries have an interest and so this is only the start of the end game.
The first proposal (Pillar 1) is all about taxing rights. Currently a global trading business is only taxed on their profits where they have a permanent establishment. So sales in the UK are not sufficient.
So the Pillar 1 proposal is to build on top of the existing permanent establishment to give taxing rights on profits to the country where sales arise, but only for multinational business with a profit margin of over 10% and then only 20% of those super profits above 10%.
The US is not particularly in favour of Pillar 1 as it gives other countries taxing rights over their companies.
The second proposal (Pillar 2) is to create a minimum tax rate of at least 15%. The idea is that the business HQ would be taxed at this minimum tax rate on the multinational global profits to the extent that they had not paid sufficient overseas taxes. In the G7 communiqué it mentions a minimum 15% on a country by country basis.
Pillar 2 limits global businesses the ability to use tax havens to shelter profits.
The US likes Pillar 2 as it could obtain additional taxes from all the business headquartered in the US.
For the UK, it could gain taxes from both Pillars.
Usually, what's most often heard is bleating about helping the world's poorest and people view this as elite politicians virtue-signalling at their expense, whereas they think such donations should be a private matter.
an essential retailerdodgy bastards to pay no tax but as the vastly loss-making parts of their operation finally turn to profit they will clear it as well.We can't just have an "Amazon Tax" because certain people have declared them to be evil. There have to be clear accountancy rules applied universally - this agreement does that and its a huge step forward.
As for Sky Q its ok, but for Prime / Flix / Disney etc my LG TV is quicker and easier to use than the Sky box.
WRT to the Begum case, I thought it was wrong that she got her citizenship taken away in the way it was. If you look at the Blair era laws, they are terrifying. As I understand it, you can get your citizenship removed if it is deemed to be conducive to the public good.