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The Chancellor’s controversial letter to Chesham and Amersham voters – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 4 in General
imageThe Chancellor’s controversial letter to Chesham and Amersham voters – politicalbetting.com

The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me”

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen these:

    "Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-2)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 02 - 03 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 28 May"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1400751176136728579

    "NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 41% (-2)
    LAB 33% (-)
    LD 9% (-1)
    GRN 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    OTH 6% (+1)

    1,533 respondents, 1-2 June '21. Changes w/ 27-28 May '21."

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1400781950093344769

    Well the Cummings revelations were, indeed, as most of us on here said they would be, damp squibs politically, no matter how entertaining to watch.

    It was like he fired a peashooter against HMS Queen Elizabeth. From 30 feet away.
    Cummings has the same problem as Salmond - the public don't like either of them.

    Look at Spitting Image. Boris was a buffoon, Hancock a manchild, Rishi vain. Cummings was an alien
    And none of it was funny...

    I would be surprised if the Spitting Image reboot survives very long.
    Tbf. Not much of the original was either. A few classic sketches. And the grotesquery.
    Politicians shown in a new and striking way.
    But funny? A chuckle or two per episode. And a couple of belly laughs each series.
    I actually thought that Newzoids showed more promise. Their take on Boris, Farage and Ed Miliband were a lot funnier.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,131
    Second. Like the Tories in C+A? Delicious irony.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 499
    edited June 5
    Third. Currently at a sit down club night that may as well be a test event. Have got my negative lateral flow test so here's hoping the one I take on Sunday will be negative too. From a healthy 28 year old!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,131
    The "moved in 2013 so is a local" sounds a little pleady. I moved here in 2006 as the spouse of someone who grew up here from the early eighties.
    We are viewed with suspicion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,224
    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Andy_JS said:

    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.

    Its "exclusive" in the Currant Bun...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15164755/june-21-unlocking-delayed-early-july/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660
    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,325
    Every political bettor must dream of the situation where LD gain C&A while Con gain B&S. From drastic shifts do juicy opportunities arise.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,325
    edited June 5

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Yeah, that's the big flaw in the deliberate make and release theory. If China had an effective vaccine they'd be selling it to countries in return for all major infrastructure they don't already own.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Read his whole thread. He seems well informed. Claims the US has a Chinese defector blowing the whistle on Covid. Hence recent change of tone. Looks like accidental lab leak which china then weaponised by spreading around the world, deliberately. China knew the virus so was able to contain it better
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660
    ‘Meantime India has told the U.S. it believes the release was intentional. Remember India and China are on thin ice right now.’

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400963042075021312?s=21
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,224
    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    Is he usually a reliable source of information?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Yeah, that's the big flaw in the deliberate make and release theory. If China had an effective vaccine they'd be selling it to countries in return for all major infrastructure they don't already own.
    I don’t buy the vaccine bit, yet. I totally buy the accidental lab leak followed by deliberate global spread

    That’s what China DID. They closed down domestic travel but sent flights eagerly around the world
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    Is he usually a reliable source of information?
    He’s an Emmy award winning journalist with 200k followers. Not obviously mad. I’ve trawled a bit of his Twitter stream, he makes sense

    Who knows

    If he’s half right we are looking at war. Cold or hot
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,325
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    Is he usually a reliable source of information?
    As far as a Fox News correspondent can be.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,660
    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    Is he usually a reliable source of information?
    As far as a Fox News correspondent can be.
    Given what we now know - Trump was probably right about the lab leak, the American left tried to prohibit discussion of the very idea - the fact someone comes from Fox News no longer seems so suspicious. You reap what you sow

    We in the west are paying a heavy price for sacrificing free speech. This is what happens. Vital but unpopular ideas get censored. We all suffer thereby
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,295
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    Is he usually a reliable source of information?
    As far as a Fox News correspondent can be.
    Given what we now know - Trump was probably right about the lab leak, the American left tried to prohibit discussion of the very idea - the fact someone comes from Fox News no longer seems so suspicious. You reap what you sow

    We in the west are paying a heavy price for sacrificing free speech. This is what happens. Vital but unpopular ideas get censored. We all suffer thereby
    You make far more sense, when you're hyperventilating re: space aliens.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,838
    dixiedean said:

    The "moved in 2013 so is a local" sounds a little pleady. I moved here in 2006 as the spouse of someone who grew up here from the early eighties.
    We are viewed with suspicion.

    Sure. But not because of how long you have lived there 😉
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,295
    NYT ($) - The Sperm-Count ‘Crisis’ Doesn’t Add Up
    Reports of a decline in male fertility rely on flawed assumptions, a new study contends.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/04/health/sperm-fertility-reproduction-crisis.html

    . . . . For nearly as long, scientists have fretted about sperm’s seemingly inevitable decline. Most recently, a series of alarming headlines — as well as a new book by an epidemiologist at Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York — warned that falling sperm counts might threaten the future of the human race. “It’s a global existential crisis,” said Shanna H. Swan, author of the book “Count Down.”

    Most of these headlines can be traced to an influential 2017 meta-analysis by Dr. Swan and others, which found that sperm counts in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand had plummeted by nearly 60 percent since 1973. The authors screened 7,500 sperm-count studies from around the world, weeded out most of them and ultimately analyzed 185 studies on 43,000 men worldwide.

    They called the decline a “canary in the coal mine” for waning male reproductive health worldwide. Today, the authors would amplify that statement. “There is clear and present alarm now,” said Dr. Hagai Levine, an epidemiologist at Hebrew University-Hadassah School of Public Health and a co-author on the 2017 review, in an email. “The canary is in trouble now.” Dr. Swan, in the same email, agreed.

    Now a group of interdisciplinary researchers from Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology contend that fears of an impending Spermageddon have been vastly overstated. In a study published in May in the journal Human Fertility, they re-evaluated the 2017 review and found that it relied on flawed assumptions and failed to consider alternate explanations for the apparent decline of sperm.

    In an interview, Sarah Richardson, a Harvard scholar on gender and science and the senior author on the new study, called the conclusion of the 2017 review “an astonishing and terrifying claim that, were it to be true, would justify the apocalyptic tenor of some of the writing.” Fortunately, she and her co-authors argue, there is little evidence that this is the case. . . .

    SSI2 - Here is link to the new study
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14647273.2021.1917778
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,295
    CBC.ca - Liberal Party [of Canada] triggers 'electoral urgency' clause to speed up nominating candidates. Move is the latest sign that the parties are preparing for a possible fall election

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095

    The Liberal Party's national campaign co-chairs have declared a "state of electoral urgency," a procedural move that will allow the party to speed up the nomination processes for local candidates ahead of the next federal election.

    It's the latest sign that the federal parties are preparing for a possible fall election. The Conservative Party is prepared to invoke a similar measure if an election is called to get many more would-be MPs nominated on a faster timeline.

    MPs also unanimously agreed last night to hold a "take-note debate" in the House of Commons on June 15 to allow members who aren't running again to "make their farewell speech."

    In a message to some senior members of the party Thursday, the Liberal co-chairs — Economic Development Minister Melanie Joly and former cabinet minister Navdeep Bains — said they are invoking rule 18 of the national rules for the selection of candidates as of today "in all remaining ridings" that have yet to nominate a candidate.

    CBC News has seen a copy of the message that was sent to national and provincial and territorial party leaders and organizers.

    Under that rule, the two can "alter the timelines and procedures ... in such a manner as they, in their sole and unfettered discretion, may see fit," to get a local Liberal candidate in place.

    Liberals not pushing for election, spokesperson says

    As of today, the party has nominated just 162 candidates out of the possible 338 ridings, which means there are many more candidates to recruit and nominate in the months ahead of a possible fall election.

    In statement, a spokesperson for the party, Braeden Caley, said the "electoral urgency" clause is a "longstanding administrative measure in our party's processes that gives the ability to shift timelines and procedures in the national nomination rules in order to nominate more candidates, more quickly in the months ahead."

    Caley said the party is not pushing for an election but rather preparing for the possibility that the minority government could fall at any time. . . .

    SS12 - Actually, what Trudeau & the Grits are preparing for, is the possibility they could win a majority (as opposed to their current status as a minority government) via an October 2021 election. Thus taking advantage of the government's vaccination bump AND the weakness (shown by polling) of the Conservatives under their relatively new (and apparently hapless) leader Erin O'Toole.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,295
    On Topic - the Rishi letter does seem to be a sly suggestion that the good folk of C&A may suffer IF they fail to get (or rather stay) with Team Blue.

    Reminds me of how you know Election Day was approaching in my old home county in WVa, because many (but not all) of the rural county roads would get a fresh layer of gravel!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,295
    CBC.ca - The Liberals' path to a possible majority government runs through Quebec. Quebec looks like more fertile ground for Liberal seat gains than most other parts of the country

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-liberals-quebec-1.6042801

    Quebec will loom large in the next federal election and recent moves by the Liberals suggest they're making a play for the Bloc Québécois-held seats that stand between them and a majority government.

    On a number of files — the protection of the French language, Quebec's plans to make changes to the Constitution and Bill C-10, a piece of legislation with broad support within the province — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has struck a pose of openness to Quebec. . . .

    Polls suggest the party is on the threshold of securing the majority government it failed to win in 2019. According to the CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the party would win around 171 seats if an election were held today.

    The Liberals need at least 170 seats to win a majority government — which means their current polling levels don't give them much margin for error.

    Quebec is an important piece in the electoral puzzle for the Liberals. It might also be the best place for them to find many of the seats they need to reach 170.

    The Poll Tracker's seat projection model suggests that the Liberals have more upside in Quebec than anywhere else in the country, with the potential to pick up as many as nine more seats in the province. . . .

    The polls have been good for the Liberals in Quebec lately. The party has 37 per cent support in the province, according to the Poll Tracker. Though there have been big variations in results — from 29 to 47 per cent in individual polls — more often than not, the Liberals have been closer to 40 per cent approval in Quebec. . . .

    Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois, on the other hand, is polling at around 27 per cent, with most surveys putting the party below the 32.5 per cent they hit in 2019. . . .

    The polls suggest that, since 2019, the Liberals have picked up about three points in Quebec, with the Bloc falling 5.5 points. When the Liberals score high in individual Quebec polls, the Bloc tends to poll lower. That suggests some movement going on between Liberal and Bloc voters. . . .

    The Liberals' electoral analysis, meanwhile, might also conclude that the New Democrats are no longer a major player in Quebec, the Greens have big but unrealistic ambitions in the province and the Conservative offer to Quebecers appears similar to the one voters rejected in 2019.

    To win a majority, the Liberals have to beat the Bloc at its own game. It is no easy feat to out-Quebec the Bloc. That doesn't mean the Trudeau Liberals aren't going to try.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,738
    Andy_JS said:

    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.

    Well I'm not delaying my 40th birthday party
    It'll be about 10 people in my garden mostly tbh
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited June 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.

    Well I'm not delaying my 40th birthday party
    It'll be about 10 people in my garden mostly tbh
    Go for it and ignore this shower in charge. Have a great time.

    I was told yesterday morning on here that we were shutting down overseas travel in order to save June 21st. I suggested this was untrue and that it was, in fact, the prelude to Johnson moving the goalposts on ending lockdown.

    That now appears to be the case with social distancing, face masks and other infringements of liberty remaining in place until at least the end of the year.

    I was very angry yesterday. Someone on here even told me to 'calm down dear'.

    Well, that anger is now shared by a LOT of people and it's spreading.

    Johnson manages to combine lying and laziness with incompetence. It's quite an unholy trinity.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    I also predict that we are going to see the tories slide in the polls and approval for Johnson go a similar way.

    17th May was their high watermark.

    It's not that anyone likes Dominic Cummings but his testimony coincided with the unravelling of Johnson's covid plans.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,785
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Chameleon, would they?

    Selling a ready-made vaccine would make it pretty clear what happened and make denying the lab release theory (whether accidental or intentional) impossible. And would China gain more by resolving the economic and healthcare crisis elsewhere, or by sitting back?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Yeah, that's the big flaw in the deliberate make and release theory. If China had an effective vaccine they'd be selling it to countries in return for all major infrastructure they don't already own.
    The biggest flaw in the make and release theory is that China suffered around 350,000* deaths and had to physically weld people in their homes to stop the virus spreading.

    If it had been deliberate, they would either have suffered far more deaths as they tried to get rid of their elderly population to adjust the demographic nuclear bomb they are currently facing, or far fewer as they targeted only those likely to spread it abroad.

    *Yes, I know they claim 1,269. Nobody except Wikipedia and spiked actually believe them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,785
    F1: Singpapore cancelled. A few alternatives discussed, including Turkey and COTA (a second time), in the US.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,738

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    I don't get why the pace of our rollout is dipping tbh.
    Wales is about 6 doses per 100 ahead of the rUK. Whatever your split between first and seconds, that's meaningful.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,104
    Leon said:

    ‘Meantime India has told the U.S. it believes the release was intentional. Remember India and China are on thin ice right now.’

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400963042075021312?s=21

    Narendra Modi is, like your good self, a very consistent source of scientific information.
    For example, we learnt from the mass-murderer that ancient India invented genetic engineering and plastic surgery.

    The BJP government are also responsible for other scientific breakthroughs, like the discovery that the cow is the only animal in the world that exhales oxygen.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,193
    Anyway, there are obsessive loons and then there's the Wolfster

    https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1400968536076476418?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    edited June 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    I don't get why the pace of our rollout is dipping tbh.
    Wales is about 6 doses per 100 ahead of the rUK. Whatever your split between first and seconds, that's meaningful.
    I would guess it’s because we’re moving into those groups who are less likely to take it. Younger, so less at risk, more ethnically diverse, so containing more of the groups suspicious of the vaccines, and working at hours that make it more difficult to get jabbed.

    That should however not be a significant problem given how many of the actually vulnerable have been vaccinated. One of the more irritating things about these reports is that it’s hospitalisations that are the key concern, not cases. And they’re actually falling by about 2% a dayeven as infections go up, precisely because of vaccines.

    For almost everybody in their 20s, Covid is at worst like a bad case of flu (which after all is itself a killer disease). If they refuse a vaccine, that’s their concern. I think they’re stupid, but they’re not likely to die of it. Those who were at high risk are now protected.

    Given that on the latest figures a maximum of four people with both jabs have died of Delta Covid, some of the more lurid claims are now bordering on the insane. And delaying the lifting of restrictions would be madness.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802

    Anyway, there are obsessive loons and then there's the Wolfster

    https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1400968536076476418?s=20

    Well, he always was obsessed with a lot of confused shit.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,104

    Anyway, there are obsessive loons and then there's the Wolfster

    https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1400968536076476418?s=20

    On the plus side if the more crazy anti-vaxxers believe they need to stay away from the vaccinated to avoid catching MRNA, it saves me the trouble of telling them to fuck off.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,285
    edited June 5

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.

    Well I'm not delaying my 40th birthday party
    It'll be about 10 people in my garden mostly tbh
    Go for it and ignore this shower in charge. Have a great time.

    I was told yesterday morning on here that we were shutting down overseas travel in order to save June 21st. I suggested this was untrue and that it was, in fact, the prelude to Johnson moving the goalposts on ending lockdown.

    That now appears to be the case with social distancing, face masks and other infringements of liberty remaining in place until at least the end of the year.

    I was very angry yesterday. Someone on here even told me to 'calm down dear'.

    Well, that anger is now shared by a LOT of people and it's spreading.

    Johnson manages to combine lying and laziness with incompetence. It's quite an unholy trinity.
    I suggested that you chill out because you are inventing anger like the Daily Mail does.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 38
    Rishi is correct
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,647
    edited June 5
    Good morning.

    So we just endure restrictions for two more weeks because Boris kept the borders to India open for too long?

    We are squandering the vax success.

    As for Wales, it seems there’ll be no businesses left by the end of the year if Drakeford has his way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    edited June 5
    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    It would however be a significant change if they lost a seat they have held for almost 50 years and in all that time have never, not even in 1997, got less than 50% of the vote. In fact, flicking back through its predecessor seats, I don’t think a non-Tory has represented this area since the advent of universal suffrage.

    That would show signs of significant churn in the vote and, as noted upthread, offer some juicy betting opportunities.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,735

    F1: Singpapore cancelled. A few alternatives discussed, including Turkey and COTA (a second time), in the US.

    Singapore was always likely to go, their event relies on tens of thousands of overseas visitors visiting the city, which they don’t want at the moment. It takes months to prepare for the race, so better to wave it off now before they spend money on the infrastructure.

    Canada was the same, lots of international tourists.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,785
    Mr. Sandpit, seems slightly odd for Canada given Montreal's a big city, they have a current driver, and have had highly successful drivers in the last few generations.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,257
    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    As I posted yesterday the vaccination effort certainly seems to have slowed here recently
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,735
    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    Is the slow rollout not due mainly to the decision not to use AZ vaccine on younger people? Using only Pfizer and Moderna, we are still supply-limited.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    It would however be a significant change if they lost a seat they have held for almost 50 years and in all that time have never, not even in 1997, got less than 50% of the vote. In fact, flicking back through its predecessor seats, I don’t think a non-Tory has represented this area since the advent of universal suffrage.

    That would show signs of significant churn in the vote and, as noted upthread, offer some juicy betting opportunities.
    If. File under not going to happen. The 96% of the betting probably makes the Tories value.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,257
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
    A 'reasonably comfortable' win in C&A wouldn't be 'lucky'; it'd be no more than expected.
    If the Tory doesn't win 'reasonably comfortably' alarm bells will ring.

    And, as was pointed out elsewhere ....lived here since 2013 definitely wouldn't make one a 'local' in this neck of the woods.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    It would however be a significant change if they lost a seat they have held for almost 50 years and in all that time have never, not even in 1997, got less than 50% of the vote. In fact, flicking back through its predecessor seats, I don’t think a non-Tory has represented this area since the advent of universal suffrage.

    That would show signs of significant churn in the vote and, as noted upthread, offer some juicy betting opportunities.
    If. File under not going to happen. The 96% of the betting probably makes the Tories value.
    Well, I don’t expect them to lose it either, but you were talking about why it wouldn’t be significant if they did.

    To my mind, the question is how far over 45% of the vote the Tories get, as 45% was the Leave vote in the seat. If it’s well above 50% it suggests Brexit is no longer a priority for middle-class Remainers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    edited June 5

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    You only suspect he’s not trusted?

    Who would be mad enough to trust a man who lies about his name?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,230
    R4 covering the Belgian virologist being hunted by a sniper:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57358492
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    Is the slow rollout not due mainly to the decision not to use AZ vaccine on younger people? Using only Pfizer and Moderna, we are still supply-limited.
    I am sure that that hasn't helped and it seems to be based upon completely asymmetric assessment of risk. This virus is very unlikely to kill you if you are under 40 without a health condition but it can make you seriously ill and cause life changing damage to your body. The risk of that is much higher than these clots. If there is an alternative fine, whatever. If there isn't get on with it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    They need to end the age restriction and just leet anyone over 18 have it. Sure there will be holdouts that need further campaigns but jab the willing ASAP.

    Vax rates in Leicester are poor, so we are going to get another wave. 58% first dose, 35% double dose here, in part because of the young population in the city.

    My concern is that the government gets lots and lots of praise for its vaccine roll out which keeps it popular and as a result it is unwilling to do or say anything that could change the narrative, even when things are clearly not going well. That would be an appalling derogation of duty.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    I don't get why the pace of our rollout is dipping tbh.
    Wales is about 6 doses per 100 ahead of the rUK. Whatever your split between first and seconds, that's meaningful.
    I would guess it’s because we’re moving into those groups who are less likely to take it. .
    I don't think there's any evidence at all that this is the reason.

    And anecdotally every youngster I know can't wait to get it and get on with their lives
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,838

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
  • isamisam Posts: 37,640
    The letter seems a bit desperate, but most political begging letters do I guess - annoying repeated use of ‘Peter’. I wonder if it is the case that Rishi writes to the Remain areas and maybe Boris to Leave… who wrote the letter in Hartlepool? Our London Mayor letter was from Rishi (I live in a leave part of London, but London as a whole was Remain)

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    edited June 5
    isam said:

    The letter seems a bit desperate, but most political begging letters do I guess - annoying repeated use of ‘Peter’. I wonder if it is the case that Rishi writes to the Remain areas and maybe Boris to Leave… who wrote the letter in Hartlepool? Our London Mayor letter was from Rishi (I live in a leave part of London, but London as a whole was Remain)

    You should see the ones Boris sends me asking for money. I got one recently offering me the chance to be a "founder contributor" to the fund to fight this spate of by elections. Somehow I found it in me to turn down this opportunity of a life time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,838
    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    The demand for those mobile clinics at Lords and Chinatown and Leicester(?) suggest it’s not an issue with demand.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,294

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
    A 'reasonably comfortable' win in C&A wouldn't be 'lucky'; it'd be no more than expected.
    If the Tory doesn't win 'reasonably comfortably' alarm bells will ring.

    And, as was pointed out elsewhere ....lived here since 2013 definitely wouldn't make one a 'local' in this neck of the woods.
    But it is the essential LibDem gamebook - anyone who hasn't had seven generations born and died in the constituency will get tarred with the " incomer" brushed. If you do meet that hurdle, you will be fought with the "entitled oppressor" label. Who made their money from slavery. Probably.

    The LibDems are fast becoming the go to party of Home Counties snobs and NIMBYs. Margot Leadbetter would now be a LibDem. As would Hyacinth Bucket.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,735
    Charles said:

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
    The numbers is hospital is the important statistic at this stage, and it’s barely moved even as case numbers have increased.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,736
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Yeah, that's the big flaw in the deliberate make and release theory. If China had an effective vaccine they'd be selling it to countries in return for all major infrastructure they don't already own.
    I don’t buy the vaccine bit, yet. I totally buy the accidental lab leak followed by deliberate global spread

    That’s what China DID. They closed down domestic travel but sent flights eagerly around the world
    Why ? I don’t see what they gain from it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,338

    Good morning.

    So we just endure restrictions for two more weeks because Boris kept the borders to India open for too long?

    We are squandering the vax success.

    As for Wales, it seems there’ll be no businesses left by the end of the year if Drakeford has his way.

    I expect he will be ignored when England and Scotland open up

    Even now you can see many more maskless and non socially distanced people at outside venues and just generally
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,476

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
    A 'reasonably comfortable' win in C&A wouldn't be 'lucky'; it'd be no more than expected.
    If the Tory doesn't win 'reasonably comfortably' alarm bells will ring.

    And, as was pointed out elsewhere ....lived here since 2013 definitely wouldn't make one a 'local' in this neck of the woods.
    But it is the essential LibDem gamebook - anyone who hasn't had seven generations born and died in the constituency will get tarred with the " incomer" brushed. If you do meet that hurdle, you will be fought with the "entitled oppressor" label. Who made their money from slavery. Probably.

    The LibDems are fast becoming the go to party of Home Counties snobs and NIMBYs. Margot Leadbetter would now be a LibDem. As would Hyacinth Bucket.

    What a silly post, which contradicts itself, not that I would encourage anyone to waste time studying it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,735

    Leon said:

    A sensational claim on Twitter, from a verified source, with close links to US intel. 200k followers. Seems to have been sound on lab leak from the start


    ‘US intelligence continues to believe that covid spread [by china] was intentional and that China had an effective vaccine earlier in 2020 and only used it for those who mattered in country.’

    Worth reading his last 20 tweets. Mind blowing.

    https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1400961589977640965?s=21

    If he’s halfway right we could be close to war

    They don't even have an effective vaccine now....they have one total duffer and one ok-ish one.
    Amazingly, the WHO have now approved the duffer Sinovac, after it met their 50% efficacy target in tests. Ask Chile how that’s going?

    That’s likely to cause huge problems in the developing world, as countries in China’s sphere of influence are pushed towards this dud, rather than the much more effective AZ.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,721
    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,546
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
    The numbers is hospital is the important statistic at this stage, and it’s barely moved even as case numbers have increased.
    Chris Hopson of nhs suppliers was very balanced on breakfast this morning. Explained about how different the hotspots have been re hospitalisation in absolute numbers and in how sick the patients weren’t. Strongly suggests the vaccines have done the job. He was concerned about pressure on the nhs in toto, not from Covid per se. June 21st is not going to be a Big Bang, assuming it does ahead at all, but there will be more ‘freedoms’, just probably not completely normal yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,476
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    They need to end the age restriction and just leet anyone over 18 have it. Sure there will be holdouts that need further campaigns but jab the willing ASAP.

    Vax rates in Leicester are poor, so we are going to get another wave. 58% first dose, 35% double dose here, in part because of the young population in the city.

    I'd like to see that now, too. The difference in medical risk for someone aged 18 versus aged 28 appears negligible.
    But I guess the concern would be overload on the booking system, and a lot of dissatisfaction if the programme were thrown open to all adults, before the numbers are down to a level at which they could cope?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,338
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    The letter seems a bit desperate, but most political begging letters do I guess - annoying repeated use of ‘Peter’. I wonder if it is the case that Rishi writes to the Remain areas and maybe Boris to Leave… who wrote the letter in Hartlepool? Our London Mayor letter was from Rishi (I live in a leave part of London, but London as a whole was Remain)

    You should see the ones Boris sends me asking for money. I got one recently offering me the chance to be a "founder contributor" to the fund to fight this spate of by elections. Somehow I found it in me to turn down this opportunity of a life time.
    And me

    And as for the header it is pure politics and why so far the conservatives are the winners
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,476
    Andy_JS said:

    Radio Five Live just reported that the Telegraph is reporting there will be a 2 week delay to the 21st June date.

    That would be bad.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,483

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
    A 'reasonably comfortable' win in C&A wouldn't be 'lucky'; it'd be no more than expected.
    If the Tory doesn't win 'reasonably comfortably' alarm bells will ring.

    And, as was pointed out elsewhere ....lived here since 2013 definitely wouldn't make one a 'local' in this neck of the woods.
    But it is the essential LibDem gamebook - anyone who hasn't had seven generations born and died in the constituency will get tarred with the " incomer" brushed. If you do meet that hurdle, you will be fought with the "entitled oppressor" label. Who made their money from slavery. Probably.

    The LibDems are fast becoming the go to party of Home Counties snobs and NIMBYs. Margot Leadbetter would now be a LibDem. As would Hyacinth Bucket.

    Rigsby, Fawlty and now 60% of Last of the Summer Wine are Tories.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,640
    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    When I went to book my jab, the vaccine centre in Havering had no slots available for over a week. The centre in Barking & Dagenham had slots available the next day, and when it came to choosing a time, I had my pick (10am-10pm I think). The place was empty when I got there. My mate had to queue for 20 mins last month for his.

    There is govt propaganda/advertising everywhere telling people to get jabbed, they can’t force it on people though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,721
    FF43 said:

    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.

    I should add power is much more centralised in the UK compared than the US, which makes the administration's patronage much greater.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,476
    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    The former is more likely. On the island we've had under-40s hopping up and down wanting to be vaccinated for three weeks now, with only the AZN on offer (which they are being refused) from the main vaccination site and no sense of urgency about getting some Pfizer in to deal with the backlog. The MP has just appeared from his slumber and is now promising resolution by "mid-June", which is good news, but hardly suggests anyone is rushing to get this done. Asked about the Moderna, we've simply been told "the Moderna isn't being given out on the island", which is hardly an answer.

    Shortage of supply is the most likely explanation, all the alternatives being less likely, and less attractive.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,667
    Morning all.

    To me the letter seems mainly inconsequential, with a leaning tower of assumption built on not very much. IMO OGH has slightly overegged, and is now running out of eggs.

    But I know that C&A will be but of a law unto itself, and a Lib Dem corporeal resuscitation would be interesting; has happened before.

    Since we are in PB campaign mode :smile: , I think someone needs to dust off a header about Dangerous Dogs for a change.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.

    I should add power is much more centralised in the UK compared than the US, which makes the administration's patronage much greater.
    The UK has an (at least theoretically) apolitical Civil Service and judiciary though. The US does not.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,483
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    The letter seems a bit desperate, but most political begging letters do I guess - annoying repeated use of ‘Peter’. I wonder if it is the case that Rishi writes to the Remain areas and maybe Boris to Leave… who wrote the letter in Hartlepool? Our London Mayor letter was from Rishi (I live in a leave part of London, but London as a whole was Remain)

    You should see the ones Boris sends me asking for money. I got one recently offering me the chance to be a "founder contributor" to the fund to fight this spate of by elections. Somehow I found it in me to turn down this opportunity of a life time.
    Apparently he's doing up his back room.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,476
    edited June 5
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.

    I should add power is much more centralised in the UK compared than the US, which makes the administration's patronage much greater.
    Yes, although there is also a stronger tradition of administrative neutrality which, in the past at least, has tended to ensure that any political pork is dispensed more subtly than in the US. Politicians who directly instructed civil servants to do something patently politically biased would be breaking the rules.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
    The numbers is hospital is the important statistic at this stage, and it’s barely moved even as case numbers have increased.
    What I have found really odd is that the numbers being admitted to hospital have increased sharply but as you say the number actually in hospital has been static. It suggests to me a change of approach by the NHS, perhaps the criteria for admission has been reduced as additional capacity has become available. Or maybe the treatments provided to people who get there are just more effective and quicker. It's definitely worth a look as we try to assess the risk of opening further.
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 319
    Morning all, about time the Tories took the gloves off and fought the LibDems and Labour with their own tactics. Personally if I was Boris and the good folks of Chesham and Amersham do defect and elect a LibDem MP this month, I would drive HS2 straight through the constituency at ground level rather than using nice tunnels and make sure they move to the bottom of the list for funding. Blair and Brown flooded their 1997 gains with cash and the LibDems need to be put back into their little irrelevant box. I want financial security in my old age so if the UK becomes like Japan and basically elects the same party for 20+ years, that suits me. We don't need an opposition to the Tory Party. The Party is perfectly capable of refreshing itself by dethroning PMs when necessary as both Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron learned to their surprise.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,483
    A donation of just £500 will buy the Prime Minister a new toilet roll holder.

    Donate £5000 and you can become a golden bidet founder member.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    When I went to book my jab, the vaccine centre in Havering had no slots available for over a week. The centre in Barking & Dagenham had slots available the next day, and when it came to choosing a time, I had my pick (10am-10pm I think). The place was empty when I got there. My mate had to queue for 20 mins last month for his.

    There is govt propaganda/advertising everywhere telling people to get jabbed, they can’t force it on people though.
    No they can't but they should do everything they can to make it easy for people and they might want to think about a little bit of stick too (no foreign travel unless fully vaccinated being an obvious one). This really shouldn't be necessary but it clearly is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,802
    Jonathan said:

    A donation of just £500 will buy the Prime Minister a new toilet roll holder.

    Donate £5000 and you can become a golden bidet founder member.

    £500 for toilet roll holder?

    Well, I suppose he does come out with a lot of shit...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,338
    The big news this morning is the pending G7 agreement on a minimum 15% corporation tax and finally Amazon and others having to pay their fare share of tax

    Full marks to Joe Biden for pushing this and Rishi as host endorsing it

    And the BBC are reporting the irony that Ireland and some in the EU are anti

    And another problem for Labour as the conservatives resolve the Amazon tax controversy
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,335
    Jonathan said:

    A donation of just £500 will buy the Prime Minister a new toilet roll holder.

    Donate £5000 and you can become a golden bidet founder member.

    £50k and you get to sign the back of a roll of wallpaper.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,721
    FF43 said:

    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.

    Also something Putin has been very good at, a point not sufficiently acknowledged, I think. His problem is that money has been running out in Russia and his patronage with it. Increases in oil prices will probably help him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,292
    edited June 5
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    I don't think Sunak's warning is either unintentional or an indication of concern about losing the seat. The Conservatives have a adopted American style pork barrel as the way they intend to hold onto power. It is absolutely their pitch to the former Red Wall seats and something Houchen is very good at. Arguably the government's MO for Scotland too.

    I should add power is much more centralised in the UK compared than the US, which makes the administration's patronage much greater.
    The UK has an (at least theoretically) apolitical Civil Service and judiciary though. The US does not.
    The current government was elected on a Cummings manifesto to stop that though.

    I guess that we will see a One Party State for a while. It is hard to see a country where that works out well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,338
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
    The numbers is hospital is the important statistic at this stage, and it’s barely moved even as case numbers have increased.
    What I have found really odd is that the numbers being admitted to hospital have increased sharply but as you say the number actually in hospital has been static. It suggests to me a change of approach by the NHS, perhaps the criteria for admission has been reduced as additional capacity has become available. Or maybe the treatments provided to people who get there are just more effective and quicker. It's definitely worth a look as we try to assess the risk of opening further.
    It could just be those presenting at hospital are not as ill as those previously
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,735
    DavidL said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Here is what we have done wrong. In no particular order. And it's not exhaustive.

    1. Failing to vaccinate sufficiently quickly. The rollout over the past month has been weak to poor. We have been jabbing around 100-150k 1st jabs per day. This is WOEFULLY inadequate.

    2. Delaying 2nd jabs. As I suggested, it's becoming clear that 1 jab is insufficient protection against the Indian variant and that it is adept at side-stepping those people. We should have stepped up both 1st and 2nd jabs, 24/7 with at least 1 million a day. We have been complacent.

    3. Refusing to see through vaccine passports. The only way to defeat this is to use vaccine passports. Allowing c. 12,000 fans to travel to Portugal on the basis only of tests is the kind of stupidity which we showed Spring 2020. Why was this permitted? Because Johnson is weak. He should have stood up to his recalcitrant backbenchers and told them simply and straight that, 'You wanna travel? You show your jabs. End of.' That's a very small price to pay for freedom.

    4. The entire thrust should be vaccinations. And, again, more controversially that means that if you have been double jabbed you should be completely free to do whatever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want. A vaccine pass is a very very very small price to pay in exchange for that and we should have resisted all those who whinged about it and who now have far fewer freedoms as a result.

    This is very similar to what I have been saying. The vaccination effort for the last month has been woeful, 567k yesterday is still not nearly enough. Excuse after excuse has been given, its a weekend, its a bank holiday, its a week with a bank holiday in it and people are away, etc etc.

    There are 2 possibilities. Either we simply do not have enough vaccine because some of our anticipated supplies have fallen through or we are meeting widespread vaccine resistance/indifference. Both of these are alarming and it is astonishing that more attention is not being paid to them.

    If it is the former the government needs to move heaven and earth to get some more. If it is the latter the government should be loud and clear that this is the most important thing you can do for your health right now and nothing is more important. They should also be looking at evening clinics, smaller mobile clinics, going to workplaces, going to schools for 18 year olds before they break up, whatever it takes. Now. Immediately. Action this day. This is urgent and becoming more so by the day.
    When I went to book my jab, the vaccine centre in Havering had no slots available for over a week. The centre in Barking & Dagenham had slots available the next day, and when it came to choosing a time, I had my pick (10am-10pm I think). The place was empty when I got there. My mate had to queue for 20 mins last month for his.

    There is govt propaganda/advertising everywhere telling people to get jabbed, they can’t force it on people though.
    No they can't but they should do everything they can to make it easy for people and they might want to think about a little bit of stick too (no foreign travel unless fully vaccinated being an obvious one). This really shouldn't be necessary but it clearly is.
    No travel without a vaccine is an easy one - but only once everyone has been offered a vaccine.

    The millions of teens and twentysomethings queueing up for a week of debauchery in Ibiza, won’t be happy if their parents are allowed a holiday this year, but they’re not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,338

    Morning all, about time the Tories took the gloves off and fought the LibDems and Labour with their own tactics. Personally if I was Boris and the good folks of Chesham and Amersham do defect and elect a LibDem MP this month, I would drive HS2 straight through the constituency at ground level rather than using nice tunnels and make sure they move to the bottom of the list for funding. Blair and Brown flooded their 1997 gains with cash and the LibDems need to be put back into their little irrelevant box. I want financial security in my old age so if the UK becomes like Japan and basically elects the same party for 20+ years, that suits me. We don't need an opposition to the Tory Party. The Party is perfectly capable of refreshing itself by dethroning PMs when necessary as both Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron learned to their surprise.

    Actually the tunnelling has already started on a three year tunnelling programme to completion
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,292

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    I told you yesterday that Johnson would move the goalposts for June 21st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-govt-urged-to-lift-restrictions-in-pubs-as-reports-suggest-end-of-lockdown-may-be-delayed-12325185

    There's a lot of anger out there.

    I now reckon the LD's are a value bet for C&A and I have bet accordingly.

    Johnson hasn’t yet moved the goal posts.

    He may make a decision based on the data (or for whatever reason) that you don’t like.

    But at the moment it’s just various pressure groups and doomsters spinning their stories
    The numbers is hospital is the important statistic at this stage, and it’s barely moved even as case numbers have increased.
    What I have found really odd is that the numbers being admitted to hospital have increased sharply but as you say the number actually in hospital has been static. It suggests to me a change of approach by the NHS, perhaps the criteria for admission has been reduced as additional capacity has become available. Or maybe the treatments provided to people who get there are just more effective and quicker. It's definitely worth a look as we try to assess the risk of opening further.
    It could just be those presenting at hospital are not as ill as those previously
    If so they wouldn't be admitted, but rather treated as outpatients.

    I think there is now recognition that early treatment of severe disease gives better outcomes, the very opposite of the paracetamol, hot broth and go home approach of the first wave.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,647

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that it is somehow critical that the Tories hold their 82 majority as opposed to slipping back to 80 is a bit of a stretch. The reality is that unlike a minority government or even a 1992 government gradually losing power this government is totally dominant in the Commons and indeed in the polls as we saw yesterday. In these circumstances Rishi is somewhat overstating things but its the sort of thing that everyone does in elections. I believe its called politics, a weird past time really.

    Good morning everyone. Let's hope we have some play at Lords today, and at Chelmsford, although I fear Essex' chance of retaining the Championship has been washed away.

    On topic, in yesterday's Guardian, Katy Balls was suggesting that 'the Tory rebellion on aid shows Johnson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep,' and maybe Rishi's letter is a demonstration of a realisation of that.
    If longstanding MP's in the Home Counties start to fear their careers might be under threat support for Johnson might weaken.
    After all, he's not there because he's liked or admired, or, indeed, I suspect, trusted; he's there because he's seen as a winner and if that goes he's in trouble.
    More wishful thinking by Boris's opponents. I get the feeling that he is going to be "lucky" in C&A once again. Comfortably so.
    A 'reasonably comfortable' win in C&A wouldn't be 'lucky'; it'd be no more than expected.
    If the Tory doesn't win 'reasonably comfortably' alarm bells will ring.

    And, as was pointed out elsewhere ....lived here since 2013 definitely wouldn't make one a 'local' in this neck of the woods.
    But it is the essential LibDem gamebook - anyone who hasn't had seven generations born and died in the constituency will get tarred with the " incomer" brushed. If you do meet that hurdle, you will be fought with the "entitled oppressor" label. Who made their money from slavery. Probably.

    The LibDems are fast becoming the go to party of Home Counties snobs and NIMBYs. Margot Leadbetter would now be a LibDem. As would Hyacinth Bucket.

    That’s nothing!
    Hermann Goering would now be a Tory. As would Dr Crippen.

    And Vlad the Impaler would have voted Brexit, though admittedly for sovereignty reasons rather than immigration per se.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,343
    We need fully staffed, fully stocked, and well publicised walk-in vax centres on weekends.

    That’s the key I reckon.
This discussion has been closed.