Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
I wouldn't have picked Bukayo Saka. He is competing with Sancho, Foden, Grealish, Rashford, and Sterling for any game time and he isn't going (or rather shouldn't be) getting any infront of those players.
Should have picked another out and out striker in case old 'arry's ankle pack in.
Isn’t he competing with Shaw for LWB?
Chilwell and Shaw are in. So its a third left wing back.
Could one of those play LCB?
I don't think they have ever played there, where as Walker has over the years (and obviously last WC). And particularly Chilwell is known as liking to bomb down the wing.
On Tuesday, for the first time in Joe Biden’s presidency, one Democrat and one Republican will go head-to-head in a federal election: a special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District. Given the district’s Democratic lean, the election will almost certainly add one member to the Democrats’ narrow House majority. But the final margin will still be important, as it could hint at where the national political environment stands and what Republican messaging could look like in the 2022 midterms.
When then-Rep. Deb Haaland resigned from the House in March to become interior secretary, it kicked off a two-and-a-half-month sprint to fill her Albuquerque-based congressional seat.
Instead of holding primaries, the local Democratic and Republican parties chose their nominees, and electability seemed to play a major role in their choices: Both Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Republican state Sen. Mark Moores represent competitive districts in the Albuquerque suburbs and have won some tough races. . . .
Moores started off the campaign strong, too, outspending Stansbury $164,000 to $126,000 on TV ads in April. His campaign message has also been laser-focused on public safety ever since Stansbury expressed support for a mostly symbolic proposal from criminal-justice reformers that would reduce funding for the police, abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and close all federal prisons.
In a city whose high crime rates are a perennial political football, Moores saw an opening and used his debate appearances and TV ads to argue that Stansbury wanted to defund the police. Stansbury was, in turn, forced to moderate her position (her campaign now says she supports some parts of the proposal but not others) and shore up her law-enforcement bona fides with a TV ad of her own.
But at the beginning of May, Moores went dark on TV for more than a week, and Stansbury began to dominate the conversation: From May 1 to May 19, she aired $194,000 worth of TV ads to Moores’s $18,000. And overall, for the entire year and counting all campaign spending (not just TV ads), Stansbury outspent Moores $875,000 to $470,000 as of May 12. She also had more than four times as much cash on hand ($525,000 to $126,000) ready to deploy for the final stretch.
With this strong finish, Stansbury has eliminated whatever suspense there was about the outcome of the race. The Democrat’s closing ads have all been positive, and the race has seen little outside spending — signs that neither side views the election as particularly competitive. . . . .
I wouldn't have picked Bukayo Saka. He is competing with Sancho, Foden, Grealish, Rashford, and Sterling for any game time and he isn't going (or rather shouldn't be) getting any infront of those players.
Should have picked another out and out striker in case old 'arry's ankle pack in.
Isn’t he competing with Shaw for LWB?
Chilwell and Shaw are in. So its a third left wing back.
Could one of those play LCB?
James could play RCB? Has TAA ever played centre midfield.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Colin Angus @VictimOfMaths Nationally, COVID admissions are rising, but this is only being driven, so far, by increase in the North West and an some signs of a rise in the East of England (perhaps driven by Bedford?).
New trust-level data should be published on Thursday.
They think its all over....but it might not be....
England boss Gareth Southgate has just confirmed that the six players who have been dropped from the squad will all be available for the two upcoming warm-up matches.
UEFA rules allow changes right up until the day before the first game in the tournament.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
However, there was no option of "just continue as we were." As @rcs1000 has pointed out, even in states or countries where that was tried, the effects of restrictions were applied unofficially. Mobility cratered, people stayed at home, restaurants and pubs had footfall plunge (in states in the US where there was no lockdown, the level of decrease of footfall over the year 2020 was greater than it was in the UK!). One key difference has been furlough, which was justified because the Government were mandating closure. Otherwise it would have been business closures and jobs lost.
(And don't forget that the 1.3 million years left was with the measures to reduce it. Would have been dramatically higher without it. In addition, those bereaved have had a certain quality of life reduction. And those with Long Covid (especially those with demonstrated organ damage, which is a significant number) have also had a level of quality of life reduction, and this would also have been multiplied in such a counterfactual.
In essence, there were no good outcomes and no timelines where we didn't have a really really shit year. I think that's one thing the Toby Youngs and followers have been unable to internalise)
I disagree, I think that if we had not had the first lockdown, or had ended it after 3 weeks, then we would have had less deaths overall, that is not provable, and it may be wrong, but I don't think three is a credible sinario where there would have been significantly more deaths.
I could look at examples of places that have not lockdown, Sweden being the best example, but there are more, in the US South Dakota did not lock down ever and while it eventually had a lot of deaths, its not near the peek of New York or New Jersey. Georgia and Florida, reopened at the start and midal of May of last year, to endless criticisms, but both have close to the average number of deaths in the US Florida below average, despite is very old population.
In south America, Argentina had the longest lockdown in the would, where as Brazil had no lockdown, a couple of months ago Argentina had more total deaths than Brazil, and yes brazil now has more deaths, probably because of a new strain they have had, but not that many compared to Argentina, and at the moment Argentina is catching up.
Why might the lockdowns be so ineffective? well they can delay some infections and therefor some deaths, but not as many as people think. According to ONS data over a 1/3 of the UK population have had the virus, far moor than the 4 million on government website, but mostly this was asymptomatic and milled conditions. achily its probably more than its, they did not start collecting data till end of March 2021, and stopped for a week at the peek over Christmas.
by delaying people getting the original COVID, more where susceptible to get the newer extra strength Kent variety, which was not good and they also got it over winter, when health outcomes are worse for all conditions.
By mandating people stay in there houses and flats, people got less sunlight witch meant less Vitamin D, also many put wait and it it was good for nobody's mental health. all of theses will have affected the quality of the health outcomes, including hospitalisations and deaths.
We know that nobody know how may will have died in such a sinario, yes it could have been more, but credibly how much 10,000? I think 20,000 is the highest amount of extra deaths that is credible. meanwhile we have barrowed, 400 Billion, some extra borings was inevitable, but not on this scale. lets say half that.
20,000 deaths for 200 Billion, that's 10,000,000 a death, I'm sure if it was my mum I would want the would spend the would on her, but as a nation this is not a manageable amount. and that's before you tally up the loss to our children's education the delayed operations the damage to mental heath and the Lost year in general.
I'm probably not making friends with this, and it is too late now, but this was all a massive mistake.
Matt Hancock on 0 deaths announcement: "Despite this undoubtedly good news we know we haven’t beaten this virus yet, and with cases continuing to rise please remember hands, face, space and let in fresh air when indoors, and of course, make sure when you can you get both jabs."
Grhhhhhhh....again, bloody make sure you tell people, 3 weeks....you are still bent over with your pants down for 3 more weeks should COVID come along.
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
Thatcher and Blair had those too, were they wrong to like 4 years? Not being boxed in de risks it, in case some pops up you need more time to deal with,
I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid I'll sing the record of deeds that he did Way out in New Mexico a long time ago When a man's only friend was his own forty-four
Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad In old Silver City he went to the bad Way out west with a knife in his hand At the age of twelve years he killed his first man
Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing Songs about Billy their boy bandit king Before this young manhood reached its sad end He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men
It was on one black night that poor Billy died He said to his friends, "I'm not satisfied There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two"
Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate A big moon was shining and the hour was late Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end
I really want the government to start coordinating a message that there is an acceptable level of death from COVID. Lockdowns are not a solution, they were only ever a delaying tactic to get people vaccinated and now we're at a stage where 75% of adults are partially vaccinated and 50% are fully vaccinated with another 5% to be partially vaccinated and another 12-15% to be fully vaccinated by June 21st the need for lockdown has passed. The need for any NPIs has passed and we can declare COVID defeated to the extent that the NHS won't be overwhelmed therefore the old normal must resume. People who aren't happy to do so can choose to keep themselves locked up forever and people who aren't vaccinated will have to live with the consequences of rejecting the vaccine and dying with COVID.
It's not even about deaths any more. The CFR is now down to 0.3%. That's literally at the level the covid denialists pretended it was at all along; vaccines have made it come true. It implies the IFR is significantly lower. Every death is a tragedy, of course. But we cannot abolish death. The greater the restrictions, the more damage we store up that will cause future (or even current) harm.
The balance was hugely in favour of restrictions when an average of 1.5% of cases died and 10% of cases were hospitalised (and 20-30% of hospitalised cases died). Now, 0.3% of cases die, and 5% are hospitalised (and 7% of hospitalised cases die).
And vaccines will keep pushing those numbers down and down and down.
It's all about hospital occupancy and possible Long Covid now. As I understand it, there's every reason to expect that Long Covid incidence will be drastically reduced by even a single vaccination (as the immune system is no longer naive to the novel virus). And hospital occupancy remains very low and flatlining, even with cases increasing from four weeks ago and hospital admissions increasing from two weeks ago.
It may seem heartless to those who do become seriously ill (and the young can become seriously ill, as shown by the fact that admissions have increased from younger demographics) - but they are less likely to become seriously ill, far more likely to survive, and likely to be ill for shorter periods of time.
I agree that the unvaccinated should be given every genuine option to work from home (which is a challenge for those in the hospitality industry; furlough has to remain available for them) and to be able to remain socially distanced until they have had at least one dose (plus two weeks).
And we should continue vaccinating as quickly as possible (and certainly roll out down to age 12 and above as soon as we safely can).
Apart from that, though, the case for restrictions reduces incrementally jab by jab.
(As for antivaxxers? Up to them. Everyone is almost certain to see the virus sooner or later, especially as restrictions reduce. If they want to encounter it with a naive immune system, that's their call. Most will be lucky; some will be less lucky, but the first freedom is the freedom to take the consequences)
Even that - while certainly on the button - is a bit of an exaggeration
It is not true that ‘every death is a tragedy’
An old lady of 88 dying of covid in a hospital with plenty of morphine to see her off is a sad thing, but it is part of the cycle of life. Not a ‘tragedy’. And there are many many worse ways to go, if she otherwise has her marbles. A few days of fever and croak
I’d take that over years of dementia or cancer or lots of other nasty stuff
Yes, life years lost is the metric to look at (as NICE do).
Over the whole of the pandemic, there have been about 130,000 UK deaths. How many years life lost? My understanding is that the average age of covid deaths is about 82, and that the average number of years of life lost is 10. This seems on the high side to me - there will be an awful lot of people in the 'would have died this year anyway' category - but I don't have the evidence to contradict it. So let's assume 10. So the total number of life years lost in the UK is 1.3m. As against which, all 66 million of us have essentially lost a year of our lives. Time when we could have been living we've instead spent social distancing, washing our hands, working from home and all that tedious bollocks. Total number of life years lost from lockdown = 66 million.
Now, clearly, I'm engaging in a little bit of hyperbole here. I've had days I've enjoyed in the past year. Walks up hills with the family and so forth. But really not very many. We have been judging success by the wrong metrics. There is so much more to life than not dying.
I've been having this chat with friends and family. About 50% of them (I am one) describe this last year as "the worst of my life"
Perhaps I have been incredibly fortunate otherwise, indeed I have, nonetheless this year just gone was the worst. That is no small thing.
Billions of people have endured the same
Yes, me too. And even though you were relaying the other day a story from when you were in prison - that must have been a pretty bad year - I believe you.
I don't think I'm alone in that my mood is much more associated with how the future looks than the present. And for a long time the future has just looked like nothing. A fog. An endless cold desert. A void.
My life now is actually little different from how it was last Autumn, but the future is looking much less bleak.
I'd forgotten the year I was in prison, and then on bail
That WAS grim. Personally
And yet this year still beats it for shittiness, easily, because this time it's not just me suffering, it's the whole bloody world, and I have friends and family whose mental health has seriously declined this year, plus lots of intense loneliness - everywhere - plus of course the horrible economic costs - jobs lost, businesses shuttered, on and on it goes
And I have not come close to death, in my family or social group - God knows what it is like for those that do
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Except when it’s Diane Abbott because it barely exists and is all about her counting abilities anyway.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Kinder gentler politics....
It has always been thus.
Andrew Jackson doing pistols-for-2-breakfast-for-1 specials, for example.... To deal with insults to his wife....
The vaccine programme has been astonishing. 6 months worth of jabbing — and now no deaths from the virus.
Yep! There’s a long way to go internationally, but the efforts from pharma companies and western governments (with one notable exception, based in Brussels) have been nothing short of astonishing. Nine months to get multiple vaccines developed and approved, and six more of ramping production and jabbing everyone.
Happy Zero Deaths Day to the UK, and here’s to many more! 🍻
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
I had thought that borrowed/hiyerd weeding dresses where all the rage now, more envirmentaly friendly and so on.
there are a lot of people that have decided what team they are on. and wish to show loyalty to that team by criticising the other team, and it doesn't matter what about.
The vaccine programme has been astonishing. 6 months worth of jabbing — and now no deaths from the virus.
Yep! There’s a long way to go internationally, but the efforts from pharma companies and western governments (with one notable exception, based in Brussels) have been nothing short of astonishing. Nine months to get multiple vaccines developed and approved, and six more of ramping production and jabbing everyone.
Happy Zero Deaths Day to the UK, and here’s to many more! 🍻
Yes, my Trump short is well underwater atm. But I'm not too worried. Might actually add to it at current prices.
I've saved myself a shed or two (by which I mean the cost of outside storage crap, rather than the theoretical physics measure) by not betting against Trump. I've bet against him once again, but shed-conservative that I am, not in a big way.
Christ on a bike, I didn't realise just how fast Canada is now vaccinating. They will overtake the UK by tomorrow.
Yep. They are on a tear. My High School cohort were about 4 weeks behind me for first jab about a month ago. Rumours Justin may call a snap election on the back of it. Oldies drifting to the Liberals.
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
Thatcher and Blair had those too, were they wrong to like 4 years? Not being boxed in de risks it, in case some pops up you need more time to deal with,
The Tories will have been in power 12 years in 2022 and 13 in 2023 ie closer to 1992 or 2010 than 1983, 1987, 2001 or 2005.
On the historical precedent they will see their majority cut at least even if they hold onto power
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Except when it’s Diane Abbott because it barely exists and is all about her counting abilities anyway.
Yep. The jokes and memes about "stupid" Diane from white, middle aged blokes who haven't got a racist or sexist bone in their body are because of all the stupid things she says. 🆗
Christ on a bike, I didn't realise just how fast Canada is now vaccinating. They will overtake the UK by tomorrow.
Yep. They are on a tear. My High School cohort were about 4 weeks behind me for first jab about a month ago. Rumours Justin may call a snap election on the back of it. Oldies drifting to the Liberals.
On doses, they're only around the EU level, but they've gone all out on the single dose strategy after learning from our early success.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
Christ on a bike, I didn't realise just how fast Canada is now vaccinating. They will overtake the UK by tomorrow.
One reason why Great White North PM Justin Trudeau may call general election for Fall of 2020 to benefit his Liberal Party.
Other reason is that Conservatives under relatively new leader Erin O'Toole are NOT doing well, nor are Conservative provincial premiers in Ontario and Alberta.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Except when it’s Diane Abbott because it barely exists and is all about her counting abilities anyway.
Yep. The jokes and memes about "stupid" Diane from white, middle aged blokes who haven't got a racist or sexist bone in their body are because of all the stupid things she says. 🆗
If they say the same things about Richard Burgon, how does that work?
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Except when it’s Diane Abbott because it barely exists and is all about her counting abilities anyway.
Yep. The jokes and memes about "stupid" Diane from white, middle aged blokes who haven't got a racist or sexist bone in their body are because of all the stupid things she says. 🆗
If they say the same things about Richard Burgon, how does that work?
Neither are in any way fit to be ministers. Abbott is someone to listen to though.
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
Thatcher and Blair had those too, were they wrong to like 4 years? Not being boxed in de risks it, in case some pops up you need more time to deal with,
The Tories will have been in power 12 years in 2022 and 13 in 2023 ie closer to 1992 or 2010 than 1983, 1987, 2001 or 2005.
On the historical precedent they will see their majority cut at least even if they hold onto power
They do weather on historical precedents and get very different weather on the day due to so many variables to consider. Having said that though, yet again I have listened to you and changed my opinion to 2024.
Christ on a bike, I didn't realise just how fast Canada is now vaccinating. They will overtake the UK by tomorrow.
One reason why Great White North PM Justin Trudeau may call general election for Fall of 2020 to benefit his Liberal Party.
Other reason is that Conservatives under relatively new leader Erin O'Toole are NOT doing well, nor are Conservative provincial premiers in Ontario and Alberta.
Also. The Liberals don't govern any major Province. And none away from the Maritimes. Thus, they have avoided any to lockdown or not problems.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
I was brought up with the maxim that if you haven't got something nice to say about somebody then you shouldn't say anything at all. On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
I was brought up with the maxim that if you haven't got something nice to say about somebody then you shouldn't say anything at all. On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
You just did. Paradoxical, innit.
I think an unelected petticoat PM in what's meant to be a democracy is probably fair game on a politics website.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
I was brought up with the maxim that if you haven't got something nice to say about somebody then you shouldn't say anything at all. On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
You just did. Paradoxical, innit.
I think an unelected petticoat PM in what's meant to be a democracy is probably fair game on a politics website.
Feel free to comment on her politics - or carry on being a dick head - your call.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
Except when it’s Diane Abbott because it barely exists and is all about her counting abilities anyway.
Yep. The jokes and memes about "stupid" Diane from white, middle aged blokes who haven't got a racist or sexist bone in their body are because of all the stupid things she says. 🆗
You never told us whether you stand by your earlier contention that she gets "by far the most (and the most visceral and personal) abuse of any MP in the country".
However, there was no option of "just continue as we were." As @rcs1000 has pointed out, even in states or countries where that was tried, the effects of restrictions were applied unofficially. Mobility cratered, people stayed at home, restaurants and pubs had footfall plunge (in states in the US where there was no lockdown, the level of decrease of footfall over the year 2020 was greater than it was in the UK!). One key difference has been furlough, which was justified because the Government were mandating closure. Otherwise it would have been business closures and jobs lost.
(And don't forget that the 1.3 million years left was with the measures to reduce it. Would have been dramatically higher without it. In addition, those bereaved have had a certain quality of life reduction. And those with Long Covid (especially those with demonstrated organ damage, which is a significant number) have also had a level of quality of life reduction, and this would also have been multiplied in such a counterfactual.
In essence, there were no good outcomes and no timelines where we didn't have a really really shit year. I think that's one thing the Toby Youngs and followers have been unable to internalise)
I disagree, I think that if we had not had the first lockdown, or had ended it after 3 weeks, then we would have had less deaths overall, that is not provable, and it may be wrong, but I don't think three is a credible sinario where there would have been significantly more deaths.
I could look at examples of places that have not lockdown, Sweden being the best example, but there are more, in the US South Dakota did not lock down ever and while it eventually had a lot of deaths, its not near the peek of New York or New Jersey. Georgia and Florida, reopened at the start and midal of May of last year, to endless criticisms, but both have close to the average number of deaths in the US Florida below average, despite is very old population.
In south America, Argentina had the longest lockdown in the would, where as Brazil had no lockdown, a couple of months ago Argentina had more total deaths than Brazil, and yes brazil now has more deaths, probably because of a new strain they have had, but not that many compared to Argentina, and at the moment Argentina is catching up.
Why might the lockdowns be so ineffective? well they can delay some infections and therefor some deaths, but not as many as people think. According to ONS data over a 1/3 of the UK population have had the virus, far moor than the 4 million on government website, but mostly this was asymptomatic and milled conditions. achily its probably more than its, they did not start collecting data till end of March 2021, and stopped for a week at the peek over Christmas.
by delaying people getting the original COVID, more where susceptible to get the newer extra strength Kent variety, which was not good and they also got it over winter, when health outcomes are worse for all conditions.
By mandating people stay in there houses and flats, people got less sunlight witch meant less Vitamin D, also many put wait and it it was good for nobody's mental health. all of theses will have affected the quality of the health outcomes, including hospitalisations and deaths.
We know that nobody know how may will have died in such a sinario, yes it could have been more, but credibly how much 10,000? I think 20,000 is the highest amount of extra deaths that is credible. meanwhile we have barrowed, 400 Billion, some extra borings was inevitable, but not on this scale. lets say half that.
20,000 deaths for 200 Billion, that's 10,000,000 a death, I'm sure if it was my mum I would want the would spend the would on her, but as a nation this is not a manageable amount. and that's before you tally up the loss to our children's education the delayed operations the damage to mental heath and the Lost year in general.
I'm probably not making friends with this, and it is too late now, but this was all a massive mistake.
I'm not sure you can compare South Dakota (capital Pierre, population 13,000) with the UK.
I'd also point out that Florida had plenty of restrictions - they were just at the City level, not at the State.
Final point: the Swedes don't think they did well.
It's also worth noting that restrictions are far from the only thing that matters. If you normalise for then, the biggest determinant of if you did well or badly is a combination of:
(1) Demographics - in particular the number of single person households (lots = good), and the number of intergenerational households (lots = bad). (2) Population density and mobility - do people move around a lot, and spend a lot of time in contact with other people. Places that are very reliant on public transport do badly, and places where the car is king do much better.
The UK was always going to perform quite poorly given (2), and is mid-table for (1).
On topic, I still think, on balance, Trump won't run in 2024 but I am less confident than before. One, because of the possible charges which he may try to drag out with the hope he becomes President and then is immune for 4 years. Two, because I suspect he is looking at Biden and Harris, and thinking he can take both on and win - the former because his physical and mental state looks increasingly frail and the latter because she is a poor candidate but, being Black and female, she will get a free run at the nomination if Biden steps down. Three, because especially if the Chinese lab theory is proven to be true, Trump will be able to say "I told you so" and use it to discredit the Media and the Tech giants who pushed back against the theory, and then use that to claim that the Media / Tech was lying about all their other claims. And, fourth, because the Democrats' own behaviour on the cultural / social / economic fronts is more radical than many Republican-turned-Democrat voters would have thought, which may lead to gains.
Personally, I think Harris is the presumptive favourite to be the nominee next time around because - despite being a terrible candidate - she's the Vice President, and has to be a better than 50% chance of being the actual President come the time that the Dems are choosing their nominee for 2024. And that would be true whether she was black, white or indigo.
Harris might be a terrible candidate, but she might be a very lucky one. Because the one Republican she can beat, is Donald Trump.
While 60% of Trump voters support (in the broadest sense) the actions of the Jan 6 rioters, another 30% were horrified. Trump owns 60% of the Republican Party, but he only rented the other 40%, and I don't think there's any evidence the rest have come to love in him in the six months since the election.
If Trump is the nominee (and I suspect it is probably his for the taking). And if Trump is embroiled in scandal and lawsuits, and is a weakened and older nominee, then I can't see anything other than a landslide for Harris.
Another question on the subject of the US Republican nomination: the best Republican Trumpian candidates are young: DeSantis is just 42, Josh Hawley is 41, Tom Cotton is 44 and Nikki Haley is 49. They can all wait if Trump decides to run in 2024. Indeed, the temptation for them is to be first to endorse Trump for 2024 so as to improve their chance of getting his nod in 2028.
And if Trump starts getting nomination for 2024, it's hard to see him deciding not to run.
Really hope you are right about Harris thrashing Trump. But I fear that is not what will happen.
The question is will none-Trump Republicans turn out and vote for Trump - it's the complete unknown but they seem less likely to.
Well, we'll see (if Trump is the nominee), but my guess is that:
(a) Trump will be older, and mentally less sharp than in 2020 or 2016 (b) Trump will have endured some pretty miserable press, and it will be easy to paint his run as "Trump only wants to be President to avoid jail" (c) There will be a minority of Republicans for whom the Capitol riots were beyond the pale, and who will be disinclined to vote for him (d) Trump won't get the nomination unchallenged next time around - and it's entirely possible that the nomination process will be an extremely bruising one
Put those together, and the fact that the Biden administration (while not particularly competent) is going to be hard to paint as Marxist, and I think Trump will face an uphill struggle against Harris in 2024.
DeSantis or Hawley, on the other hand, would wipe the floor with her.
I also take the opposite view on DeSantis and Hawley, support for Trumpism is not as strong without Trump leading it, much with Boris part of his support is a personal vote for him as a strong and charismatic leader even if somewhat chaotic.
DeSantis and Hawley would be weaker candidates than Trump
Well, we'll see.
But I think Trump becomes a weaker candidate with every day that passes.
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
Thatcher and Blair had those too, were they wrong to like 4 years? Not being boxed in de risks it, in case some pops up you need more time to deal with,
The Tories will have been in power 12 years in 2022 and 13 in 2023 ie closer to 1992 or 2010 than 1983, 1987, 2001 or 2005.
On the historical precedent they will see their majority cut at least even if they hold onto power
Which is one reason why Johnson will want to wait for the new boundaries. Especially since middle-class flight from the cities is likely to consolidate in lots of lovely rural and semi-urban seats firming up their drift Torywards.
Reading that it's worth noting that Trump seems to put off some former Republican voters from voting (and in seemingly far bigger numbers than Boris has with the Tory party as he swallowed up Farage's Brexit Party votes).
So while supporting Trump is essential to ensure you win the Republican nominations for your seat, it may equally be scoring potential voters away.
The massive difference between Trump and Boris is that Boris is a moderate, socially liberal and longstanding Conservative who Europe aside from the issue of Europe might have even been called a "wet" who has won over Farages voters. Boris's Tories took Farages voters without losing who they are while locking out Farage himself.
Trump is an extreme outsider who was never a Republican who has infiltrated and taken over the GOP.
Both completely different and it's only superficial to compare the two.
In UK terms Boris' vote is similar to Trump's vote, in 2019 Boris lost graduates heavily as did Trump in 2016 and 2020 and did poorly in London much as Trump also did poorly in NYC and California in 2016 and 2020.
However it was Boris' inroads amongst the white working class that won him the 2019 election (plus facing Corbyn, the UK Bernie Sanders) much as it was Trump's inroads in white working class areas that won him the 2016 election.
Trump was also a social liberal on issues like abortion and homosexuality, although he paid lip service to the evangelical right to win the GOP nomination. It was more immigration controls that he and Boris used to win white working class support plus promises of greater sovereignty in a globalist world
The point is that Boris carried the core Tory party vote with him.
I don't think Trump has done so - for if he had he would still be President
Trump got just under 47% of the popular vote in 2020, even more than the 44% Boris got in 2019 and the same voteshare even as the combined Tory and Brexit Party vote.
Only the divided liberal left in the UK ensured the Boris landslide
Why are you describing the Labour Party as liberal, young HY? It is as authoritarian as the Conservative Party, or indeed the Green Party.
The modern left thinks "liberal" means the same as "progressive", and use the terms interchangeably.
That's true, they are used as synonyms for Good.
Though with all the supposed classical liberals out there people on the right misuse terms too.
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
I was brought up with the maxim that if you haven't got something nice to say about somebody then you shouldn't say anything at all. On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
You just did. Paradoxical, innit.
I think an unelected petticoat PM in what's meant to be a democracy is probably fair game on a politics website.
Feel free to comment on her politics - or carry on being a dick head - your call.
I sense there is a large cohort of elderly married men on the site drooling so copiously at the memory of her, they are in danger of dislodging their dentures. And that you are in it
I really want the government to start coordinating a message that there is an acceptable level of death from COVID. Lockdowns are not a solution, they were only ever a delaying tactic to get people vaccinated and now we're at a stage where 75% of adults are partially vaccinated and 50% are fully vaccinated with another 5% to be partially vaccinated and another 12-15% to be fully vaccinated by June 21st the need for lockdown has passed. The need for any NPIs has passed and we can declare COVID defeated to the extent that the NHS won't be overwhelmed therefore the old normal must resume. People who aren't happy to do so can choose to keep themselves locked up forever and people who aren't vaccinated will have to live with the consequences of rejecting the vaccine and dying with COVID.
It's not even about deaths any more. The CFR is now down to 0.3%. That's literally at the level the covid denialists pretended it was at all along; vaccines have made it come true. It implies the IFR is significantly lower. Every death is a tragedy, of course. But we cannot abolish death. The greater the restrictions, the more damage we store up that will cause future (or even current) harm.
The balance was hugely in favour of restrictions when an average of 1.5% of cases died and 10% of cases were hospitalised (and 20-30% of hospitalised cases died). Now, 0.3% of cases die, and 5% are hospitalised (and 7% of hospitalised cases die).
And vaccines will keep pushing those numbers down and down and down.
It's all about hospital occupancy and possible Long Covid now. As I understand it, there's every reason to expect that Long Covid incidence will be drastically reduced by even a single vaccination (as the immune system is no longer naive to the novel virus). And hospital occupancy remains very low and flatlining, even with cases increasing from four weeks ago and hospital admissions increasing from two weeks ago.
It may seem heartless to those who do become seriously ill (and the young can become seriously ill, as shown by the fact that admissions have increased from younger demographics) - but they are less likely to become seriously ill, far more likely to survive, and likely to be ill for shorter periods of time.
I agree that the unvaccinated should be given every genuine option to work from home (which is a challenge for those in the hospitality industry; furlough has to remain available for them) and to be able to remain socially distanced until they have had at least one dose (plus two weeks).
And we should continue vaccinating as quickly as possible (and certainly roll out down to age 12 and above as soon as we safely can).
Apart from that, though, the case for restrictions reduces incrementally jab by jab.
(As for antivaxxers? Up to them. Everyone is almost certain to see the virus sooner or later, especially as restrictions reduce. If they want to encounter it with a naive immune system, that's their call. Most will be lucky; some will be less lucky, but the first freedom is the freedom to take the consequences)
Even that - while certainly on the button - is a bit of an exaggeration
It is not true that ‘every death is a tragedy’
An old lady of 88 dying of covid in a hospital with plenty of morphine to see her off is a sad thing, but it is part of the cycle of life. Not a ‘tragedy’. And there are many many worse ways to go, if she otherwise has her marbles. A few days of fever and croak
I’d take that over years of dementia or cancer or lots of other nasty stuff
Yes, life years lost is the metric to look at (as NICE do).
Over the whole of the pandemic, there have been about 130,000 UK deaths. How many years life lost? My understanding is that the average age of covid deaths is about 82, and that the average number of years of life lost is 10. This seems on the high side to me - there will be an awful lot of people in the 'would have died this year anyway' category - but I don't have the evidence to contradict it. So let's assume 10. So the total number of life years lost in the UK is 1.3m. As against which, all 66 million of us have essentially lost a year of our lives. Time when we could have been living we've instead spent social distancing, washing our hands, working from home and all that tedious bollocks. Total number of life years lost from lockdown = 66 million.
Now, clearly, I'm engaging in a little bit of hyperbole here. I've had days I've enjoyed in the past year. Walks up hills with the family and so forth. But really not very many. We have been judging success by the wrong metrics. There is so much more to life than not dying.
I've been having this chat with friends and family. About 50% of them (I am one) describe this last year as "the worst of my life"
Perhaps I have been incredibly fortunate otherwise, indeed I have, nonetheless this year just gone was the worst. That is no small thing.
Billions of people have endured the same
Yes, me too. And even though you were relaying the other day a story from when you were in prison - that must have been a pretty bad year - I believe you.
I don't think I'm alone in that my mood is much more associated with how the future looks than the present. And for a long time the future has just looked like nothing. A fog. An endless cold desert. A void.
My life now is actually little different from how it was last Autumn, but the future is looking much less bleak.
I'd forgotten the year I was in prison, and then on bail
That WAS grim. Personally
And yet this year still beats it for shittiness, easily, because this time it's not just me suffering, it's the whole bloody world, and I have friends and family whose mental health has seriously declined this year, plus lots of intense loneliness - everywhere - plus of course the horrible economic costs - jobs lost, businesses shuttered, on and on it goes
And I have not come close to death, in my family or social group - God knows what it is like for those that do
The Worst Year. Yes
What was prison actually like?
Sharing a cell with SeanT must have been hell.
Must have been bloody crowded too with Eadric, LadyG, Byronic, Fitz etc...
However, there was no option of "just continue as we were." As @rcs1000 has pointed out, even in states or countries where that was tried, the effects of restrictions were applied unofficially. Mobility cratered, people stayed at home, restaurants and pubs had footfall plunge (in states in the US where there was no lockdown, the level of decrease of footfall over the year 2020 was greater than it was in the UK!). One key difference has been furlough, which was justified because the Government were mandating closure. Otherwise it would have been business closures and jobs lost.
(And don't forget that the 1.3 million years left was with the measures to reduce it. Would have been dramatically higher without it. In addition, those bereaved have had a certain quality of life reduction. And those with Long Covid (especially those with demonstrated organ damage, which is a significant number) have also had a level of quality of life reduction, and this would also have been multiplied in such a counterfactual.
In essence, there were no good outcomes and no timelines where we didn't have a really really shit year. I think that's one thing the Toby Youngs and followers have been unable to internalise)
I disagree, I think that if we had not had the first lockdown, or had ended it after 3 weeks, then we would have had less deaths overall, that is not provable, and it may be wrong, but I don't think three is a credible sinario where there would have been significantly more deaths.
I could look at examples of places that have not lockdown, Sweden being the best example, but there are more, in the US South Dakota did not lock down ever and while it eventually had a lot of deaths, its not near the peek of New York or New Jersey. Georgia and Florida, reopened at the start and midal of May of last year, to endless criticisms, but both have close to the average number of deaths in the US Florida below average, despite is very old population.
In south America, Argentina had the longest lockdown in the would, where as Brazil had no lockdown, a couple of months ago Argentina had more total deaths than Brazil, and yes brazil now has more deaths, probably because of a new strain they have had, but not that many compared to Argentina, and at the moment Argentina is catching up.
Why might the lockdowns be so ineffective? well they can delay some infections and therefor some deaths, but not as many as people think. According to ONS data over a 1/3 of the UK population have had the virus, far moor than the 4 million on government website, but mostly this was asymptomatic and milled conditions. achily its probably more than its, they did not start collecting data till end of March 2021, and stopped for a week at the peek over Christmas.
by delaying people getting the original COVID, more where susceptible to get the newer extra strength Kent variety, which was not good and they also got it over winter, when health outcomes are worse for all conditions.
By mandating people stay in there houses and flats, people got less sunlight witch meant less Vitamin D, also many put wait and it it was good for nobody's mental health. all of theses will have affected the quality of the health outcomes, including hospitalisations and deaths.
We know that nobody know how may will have died in such a sinario, yes it could have been more, but credibly how much 10,000? I think 20,000 is the highest amount of extra deaths that is credible. meanwhile we have barrowed, 400 Billion, some extra borings was inevitable, but not on this scale. lets say half that.
20,000 deaths for 200 Billion, that's 10,000,000 a death, I'm sure if it was my mum I would want the would spend the would on her, but as a nation this is not a manageable amount. and that's before you tally up the loss to our children's education the delayed operations the damage to mental heath and the Lost year in general.
I'm probably not making friends with this, and it is too late now, but this was all a massive mistake.
I'm not sure you can compare South Dakota (capital Pierre, population 13,000) with the UK.
I'd also point out that Florida had plenty of restrictions - they were just at the City level, not at the State.
Final point: the Swedes don't think they did well.
It's also worth noting that restrictions are far from the only thing that matters. If you normalise for then, the biggest determinant of if you did well or badly is a combination of:
(1) Demographics - in particular the number of single person households (lots = good), and the number of intergenerational households (lots = bad). (2) Population density and mobility - do people move around a lot, and spend a lot of time in contact with other people. Places that are very reliant on public transport do badly, and places where the car is king do much better.
The UK was always going to perform quite poorly given (2), and is mid-table for (1).
I'd add third point - health - the UK has got one of the worst obesity rates in the world and obesity is always a huge factor in respiratory diseases.
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
Thatcher and Blair had those too, were they wrong to like 4 years? Not being boxed in de risks it, in case some pops up you need more time to deal with,
The Tories will have been in power 12 years in 2022 and 13 in 2023 ie closer to 1992 or 2010 than 1983, 1987, 2001 or 2005.
On the historical precedent they will see their majority cut at least even if they hold onto power
Which is one reason why Johnson will want to wait for the new boundaries. Especially since middle-class flight from the cities is likely to consolidate in lots of lovely rural and semi-urban seats firming up their drift Torywards.
And that new boundary won’t include anything from Scotland.
Absolutely no way Bozza would be going on a mini moon if he was expecting to deliver bad news Re 21st June. Ignore the shrieking in the media, covid in the uk is done and dusted pudding and custard
Funny how weird coincidences can occur - had been at a family event where someone mentioned apparently theres a lot of Jewish heritage in the family, which was news to me (though suspected), and not ten minutes later a random person outside a train station asked me if I was jewish*. Sounds made up, but very weird.
*Maybe because I was wearing a hat and black suit?
I really want the government to start coordinating a message that there is an acceptable level of death from COVID. Lockdowns are not a solution, they were only ever a delaying tactic to get people vaccinated and now we're at a stage where 75% of adults are partially vaccinated and 50% are fully vaccinated with another 5% to be partially vaccinated and another 12-15% to be fully vaccinated by June 21st the need for lockdown has passed. The need for any NPIs has passed and we can declare COVID defeated to the extent that the NHS won't be overwhelmed therefore the old normal must resume. People who aren't happy to do so can choose to keep themselves locked up forever and people who aren't vaccinated will have to live with the consequences of rejecting the vaccine and dying with COVID.
It's not even about deaths any more. The CFR is now down to 0.3%. That's literally at the level the covid denialists pretended it was at all along; vaccines have made it come true. It implies the IFR is significantly lower. Every death is a tragedy, of course. But we cannot abolish death. The greater the restrictions, the more damage we store up that will cause future (or even current) harm.
The balance was hugely in favour of restrictions when an average of 1.5% of cases died and 10% of cases were hospitalised (and 20-30% of hospitalised cases died). Now, 0.3% of cases die, and 5% are hospitalised (and 7% of hospitalised cases die).
And vaccines will keep pushing those numbers down and down and down.
It's all about hospital occupancy and possible Long Covid now. As I understand it, there's every reason to expect that Long Covid incidence will be drastically reduced by even a single vaccination (as the immune system is no longer naive to the novel virus). And hospital occupancy remains very low and flatlining, even with cases increasing from four weeks ago and hospital admissions increasing from two weeks ago.
It may seem heartless to those who do become seriously ill (and the young can become seriously ill, as shown by the fact that admissions have increased from younger demographics) - but they are less likely to become seriously ill, far more likely to survive, and likely to be ill for shorter periods of time.
I agree that the unvaccinated should be given every genuine option to work from home (which is a challenge for those in the hospitality industry; furlough has to remain available for them) and to be able to remain socially distanced until they have had at least one dose (plus two weeks).
And we should continue vaccinating as quickly as possible (and certainly roll out down to age 12 and above as soon as we safely can).
Apart from that, though, the case for restrictions reduces incrementally jab by jab.
(As for antivaxxers? Up to them. Everyone is almost certain to see the virus sooner or later, especially as restrictions reduce. If they want to encounter it with a naive immune system, that's their call. Most will be lucky; some will be less lucky, but the first freedom is the freedom to take the consequences)
This is spot on.
The crazy bit, though, is that pretty much every other country seems to have worked this out, except the UK.
I'm going to cast a nasturtium here: Boris should be getting out and trumpeting our success and talking up leaving lockdown. There is a lack of leadership at the top. And the fundamental problem is that he's scared that we might go into lockdown again, and therefore he doesn't want to tie himself to the mast of "we're opening up in just three weeks time".
Boris: it's time to be a leader. Come out and say that restrictions end next month.
Lol. Boris and leadership in the same sentence, and without an “isn’t a”. Who’d have thought?
Funny how weird coincidences can occur - had been at a family event where someone mentioned apparently theres a lot of Jewish heritage in the family, which was news to me (though suspected), and not ten minutes later a random person outside a train station asked me if I was jewish*. Sounds made up, but very weird.
*Maybe because I was wearing a hat and black suit?
Bit of a thing to be ask isn’t it? Why do they want to know? 😕
For the perusal of @rcs1000 and other lovers of Tether fraud - today I learnt there are a whole pile of unregulated Forex markets that use Tether as their on/off ramp
I really want the government to start coordinating a message that there is an acceptable level of death from COVID. Lockdowns are not a solution, they were only ever a delaying tactic to get people vaccinated and now we're at a stage where 75% of adults are partially vaccinated and 50% are fully vaccinated with another 5% to be partially vaccinated and another 12-15% to be fully vaccinated by June 21st the need for lockdown has passed. The need for any NPIs has passed and we can declare COVID defeated to the extent that the NHS won't be overwhelmed therefore the old normal must resume. People who aren't happy to do so can choose to keep themselves locked up forever and people who aren't vaccinated will have to live with the consequences of rejecting the vaccine and dying with COVID.
It's not even about deaths any more. The CFR is now down to 0.3%. That's literally at the level the covid denialists pretended it was at all along; vaccines have made it come true. It implies the IFR is significantly lower. Every death is a tragedy, of course. But we cannot abolish death. The greater the restrictions, the more damage we store up that will cause future (or even current) harm.
The balance was hugely in favour of restrictions when an average of 1.5% of cases died and 10% of cases were hospitalised (and 20-30% of hospitalised cases died). Now, 0.3% of cases die, and 5% are hospitalised (and 7% of hospitalised cases die).
And vaccines will keep pushing those numbers down and down and down.
It's all about hospital occupancy and possible Long Covid now. As I understand it, there's every reason to expect that Long Covid incidence will be drastically reduced by even a single vaccination (as the immune system is no longer naive to the novel virus). And hospital occupancy remains very low and flatlining, even with cases increasing from four weeks ago and hospital admissions increasing from two weeks ago.
It may seem heartless to those who do become seriously ill (and the young can become seriously ill, as shown by the fact that admissions have increased from younger demographics) - but they are less likely to become seriously ill, far more likely to survive, and likely to be ill for shorter periods of time.
I agree that the unvaccinated should be given every genuine option to work from home (which is a challenge for those in the hospitality industry; furlough has to remain available for them) and to be able to remain socially distanced until they have had at least one dose (plus two weeks).
And we should continue vaccinating as quickly as possible (and certainly roll out down to age 12 and above as soon as we safely can).
Apart from that, though, the case for restrictions reduces incrementally jab by jab.
(As for antivaxxers? Up to them. Everyone is almost certain to see the virus sooner or later, especially as restrictions reduce. If they want to encounter it with a naive immune system, that's their call. Most will be lucky; some will be less lucky, but the first freedom is the freedom to take the consequences)
Even that - while certainly on the button - is a bit of an exaggeration
It is not true that ‘every death is a tragedy’
An old lady of 88 dying of covid in a hospital with plenty of morphine to see her off is a sad thing, but it is part of the cycle of life. Not a ‘tragedy’. And there are many many worse ways to go, if she otherwise has her marbles. A few days of fever and croak
I’d take that over years of dementia or cancer or lots of other nasty stuff
Yes, life years lost is the metric to look at (as NICE do).
Over the whole of the pandemic, there have been about 130,000 UK deaths. How many years life lost? My understanding is that the average age of covid deaths is about 82, and that the average number of years of life lost is 10. This seems on the high side to me - there will be an awful lot of people in the 'would have died this year anyway' category - but I don't have the evidence to contradict it. So let's assume 10. So the total number of life years lost in the UK is 1.3m. As against which, all 66 million of us have essentially lost a year of our lives. Time when we could have been living we've instead spent social distancing, washing our hands, working from home and all that tedious bollocks. Total number of life years lost from lockdown = 66 million.
Now, clearly, I'm engaging in a little bit of hyperbole here. I've had days I've enjoyed in the past year. Walks up hills with the family and so forth. But really not very many. We have been judging success by the wrong metrics. There is so much more to life than not dying.
I've been having this chat with friends and family. About 50% of them (I am one) describe this last year as "the worst of my life"
Perhaps I have been incredibly fortunate otherwise, indeed I have, nonetheless this year just gone was the worst. That is no small thing.
Billions of people have endured the same
That just shines a light on the charmed life you’ve led the rest of the time, then!
During the first lockdown, when all of us followed instructions and stayed at home, you went off on holiday to Wales. Since then you’ve paid only lip service to many of the restrictions. As far as we can tell, you haven’t suffered any significant loss of income and have been able to carry on working throughout. You’ve posted from a variety of locations including Cornwall, Suffolk, some island in Essex, and various parts of London, so you’ve clearly been able to travel about. You’re probably financially better off now than you were before the pandemic started, like I am.
Some genuine empathy with those for whom the last year has truly been catastrophic wouldn’t go amiss.
Colin Angus @VictimOfMaths Nationally, COVID admissions are rising, but this is only being driven, so far, by increase in the North West and an some signs of a rise in the East of England (perhaps driven by Bedford?).
New trust-level data should be published on Thursday.
If you don't have official lockdowns, you still have lockdowns. They're just unofficial ones that happen when everyone is utterly terrified to go out.
You have a series of waves that come and go, as people get scared of the virus and stay home. So the choice is not between zero years locked down and 66 million, it's between "n" and 66 million.
Plus there's the fact that without restrctions, we would probably have had higher peaks, and we might have actually seem the health service overloaded, leading to situtations like happened in New York or Milan early last year (or Manaus). And when you have those kind of peaks, you're not killing off people with just 10 years to go, you are killing off those with 20 or 30 or 40.
If you want to see just how bad excess deaths can go, look at Ecuador: they have been running at deaths 3x the normal level. Three times. We've been at 20-30% above normal levels for the last year.
Without restrictions, we would still have lost decades of peoples' lives to lockdowns, and we would have had much higher death tolls.
Now, should we have opened up much quicker? Damn right we should. But the idea that "no restrictions" is milk and honey is for the birds.
Yes to the illusion of lockdown free paradise. I'm also aware of rather a lot of people who have had quite a decent year, and some who quietly say they've really preferred it (mostly people who have seen far more of their young kids and much less commuting) but in view of the horrors that so many have experienced are shy of saying it.
Indeed I am one of those. Lockdowns has signalled the end of the office for me and allowed me the freedom to move home and actually be close to family instead of seeing the once or twice a year which has been the case for the last 33 years. You also can't, i would argue, multiply 66 million by a year to calculate lost time. A lot of those 66 million would have spent 4 or 5 nights a week sat on the sofa watching tv in any case. I doubt many but the young have 7 day a week of "Wow what a brilliant day" and for most of us many days of the week aren't much different to lockdown
Seems sensible for Tories to do that to me. Should consider 2022 too.
With a comfortable majority already little to gain and everything to lose, at least May had the excuse in 2017 she did not have much of a majority to start with
They have a big majority, they need to be happy with it and stop thinking about bolstering it all the time.
But Trump could well be in Prison in November 2024!
Did not stop Nelson Mandela becoming President a few years later, technically there is also nothing in the US constitution to prevent you running for and being elected President in jail
Evening Standard reporting Carrie hired her wedding dress for £45
It showed.
That's just nasty. Give the girl a break. It was her wedding day..
My gf, like almost all my mates not on twitter, saw the abuse under the photo of their wedding pics and just said “Why do people have to be so nasty? Haven’t they got anything better to do?”
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
The demented level abuse is how they prove they are good people - to themselves.
If there had been a wedding in Spinal Tap it would have looked exactly like that.
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
I was brought up with the maxim that if you haven't got something nice to say about somebody then you shouldn't say anything at all. On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
I got a bit of that growing up and sometimes my better angel remembers it. Then I think, fuck it.
For the perusal of @rcs1000 and other lovers of Tether fraud - today I learnt there are a whole pile of unregulated Forex markets that use Tether as their on/off ramp
Tether may very well go down as the greatest fraud in history.
(It's a fascinating shell game: the goal of Tether management is to get other people to hold Tether at 1:1 with the USD, by buying when it falls below 99.5cents, and therefore earning a tiny profit. But, of course, these people are picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer, as Tether is being robbed blind. I suspect that at least $20bn of the $62bn has been looted from it already, and at some point it will come crashing down, when people realise there isn't $60bn sitting on the books.)
Christ on a bike, I didn't realise just how fast Canada is now vaccinating. They will overtake the UK by tomorrow.
Yep. They are on a tear. My High School cohort were about 4 weeks behind me for first jab about a month ago. Rumours Justin may call a snap election on the back of it. Oldies drifting to the Liberals.
On doses, they're only around the EU level, but they've gone all out on the single dose strategy after learning from our early success.
Everyone (except the US) is now following the single dose strategy to some extent, the only question is if they're being honest about it.
That is actually a disturbing story. If he behaved towards her as she says, she should complain, regardless of his particular circumstances. If he didn’t, she shouldn’t be saying such things. But in neither case should she be talking to the media in a bid to pressure him to resign without making a formal complaint. That’s not on and actual undermines the credibility of the complaints process.
The fact that procedures have been messed up so he hasn’t been removed is a different problem.
That is actually a disturbing story. If he behaved towards her as she says, she should complain, regardless of his particular circumstances. If he didn’t, she shouldn’t be saying such things. But in neither case should she be talking to the media in a bid to pressure him to resign without making a formal complaint. That’s not on and actual undermines the credibility of the complaints process.
The fact that procedures have been messed up so he hasn’t been removed is a different problem.
Very true. It's been on the six o'clock news now though. And to be fair, she's under no obligation to report him. However, then, of course, she should keep schtum.
That is actually a disturbing story. If he behaved towards her as she says, she should complain, regardless of his particular circumstances. If he didn’t, she shouldn’t be saying such things. But in neither case should she be talking to the media in a bid to pressure him to resign without making a formal complaint. That’s not on and actual undermines the credibility of the complaints process.
The fact that procedures have been messed up so he hasn’t been removed is a different problem.
Very true. It's been on the six o'clock news now though.
The BBC have, to put it mildly, form when it comes to messing up allegations of sexual assault - both ways.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4EAc0QFubs
Drone meets fiery end in Icelandic volcano.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-57314928
Twitter, and politics related social media, is so detached from the real world
FiveThirtyEight.com - What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-new-mexico-1st-special-election-can-and-cant-tell-us-about-2022/
On Tuesday, for the first time in Joe Biden’s presidency, one Democrat and one Republican will go head-to-head in a federal election: a special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District. Given the district’s Democratic lean, the election will almost certainly add one member to the Democrats’ narrow House majority. But the final margin will still be important, as it could hint at where the national political environment stands and what Republican messaging could look like in the 2022 midterms.
When then-Rep. Deb Haaland resigned from the House in March to become interior secretary, it kicked off a two-and-a-half-month sprint to fill her Albuquerque-based congressional seat.
Instead of holding primaries, the local Democratic and Republican parties chose their nominees, and electability seemed to play a major role in their choices: Both Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Republican state Sen. Mark Moores represent competitive districts in the Albuquerque suburbs and have won some tough races. . . .
Moores started off the campaign strong, too, outspending Stansbury $164,000 to $126,000 on TV ads in April. His campaign message has also been laser-focused on public safety ever since Stansbury expressed support for a mostly symbolic proposal from criminal-justice reformers that would reduce funding for the police, abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and close all federal prisons.
In a city whose high crime rates are a perennial political football, Moores saw an opening and used his debate appearances and TV ads to argue that Stansbury wanted to defund the police. Stansbury was, in turn, forced to moderate her position (her campaign now says she supports some parts of the proposal but not others) and shore up her law-enforcement bona fides with a TV ad of her own.
But at the beginning of May, Moores went dark on TV for more than a week, and Stansbury began to dominate the conversation: From May 1 to May 19, she aired $194,000 worth of TV ads to Moores’s $18,000. And overall, for the entire year and counting all campaign spending (not just TV ads), Stansbury outspent Moores $875,000 to $470,000 as of May 12. She also had more than four times as much cash on hand ($525,000 to $126,000) ready to deploy for the final stretch.
With this strong finish, Stansbury has eliminated whatever suspense there was about the outcome of the race. The Democrat’s closing ads have all been positive, and the race has seen little outside spending — signs that neither side views the election as particularly competitive. . . . .
@VictimOfMaths
Nationally, COVID admissions are rising, but this is only being driven, so far, by increase in the North West and an some signs of a rise in the East of England (perhaps driven by Bedford?).
New trust-level data should be published on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1399764491152285704
England boss Gareth Southgate has just confirmed that the six players who have been dropped from the squad will all be available for the two upcoming warm-up matches.
UEFA rules allow changes right up until the day before the first game in the tournament.
I could look at examples of places that have not lockdown, Sweden being the best example, but there are more, in the US South Dakota did not lock down ever and while it eventually had a lot of deaths, its not near the peek of New York or New Jersey. Georgia and Florida, reopened at the start and midal of May of last year, to endless criticisms, but both have close to the average number of deaths in the US Florida below average, despite is very old population.
In south America, Argentina had the longest lockdown in the would, where as Brazil had no lockdown, a couple of months ago Argentina had more total deaths than Brazil, and yes brazil now has more deaths, probably because of a new strain they have had, but not that many compared to Argentina, and at the moment Argentina is catching up.
Why might the lockdowns be so ineffective? well they can delay some infections and therefor some deaths, but not as many as people think. According to ONS data over a 1/3 of the UK population have had the virus, far moor than the 4 million on government website, but mostly this was asymptomatic and milled conditions. achily its probably more than its, they did not start collecting data till end of March 2021, and stopped for a week at the peek over Christmas.
by delaying people getting the original COVID, more where susceptible to get the newer extra strength Kent variety, which was not good and they also got it over winter, when health outcomes are worse for all conditions.
By mandating people stay in there houses and flats, people got less sunlight witch meant less Vitamin D, also many put wait and it it was good for nobody's mental health. all of theses will have affected the quality of the health outcomes, including hospitalisations and deaths.
We know that nobody know how may will have died in such a sinario, yes it could have been more, but credibly how much 10,000? I think 20,000 is the highest amount of extra deaths that is credible. meanwhile we have barrowed, 400 Billion, some extra borings was inevitable, but not on this scale. lets say half that.
20,000 deaths for 200 Billion, that's 10,000,000 a death, I'm sure if it was my mum I would want the would spend the would on her, but as a nation this is not a manageable amount. and that's before you tally up the loss to our children's education the delayed operations the damage to mental heath and the Lost year in general.
I'm probably not making friends with this, and it is too late now, but this was all a massive mistake.
Grhhhhhhh....again, bloody make sure you tell people, 3 weeks....you are still bent over with your pants down for 3 more weeks should COVID come along.
Ry Cooder - Billy the Kid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SYFHqbxZmg
I'll sing you a song about Billy the Kid
I'll sing the record of deeds that he did
Way out in New Mexico a long time ago
When a man's only friend was his own forty-four
Now when Billy the Kid was a very young lad
In old Silver City he went to the bad
Way out west with a knife in his hand
At the age of twelve years he killed his first man
Fair Mexican maidens play guitars and sing
Songs about Billy their boy bandit king
Before this young manhood reached its sad end
He'd a notch on his pistol for twenty one men
It was on one black night that poor Billy died
He said to his friends, "I'm not satisfied
There's twenty one men that I've put bullets through
And sheriff Pat Garrett's gonna make twenty-two"
Well, this is how Billy the Kid met his fate
A big moon was shining and the hour was late
Shot down by Pat Garrett, Silver City's best friend
The poor outlaw's life have reached its sad end
China confirms first human case of H10N3 bird flu
https://nypost.com/2021/06/01/china-confirms-first-human-case-of-h10n3-bird-flu/
Andrew Jackson doing pistols-for-2-breakfast-for-1 specials, for example.... To deal with insults to his wife....
Happy Zero Deaths Day to the UK, and here’s to many more! 🍻
there are a lot of people that have decided what team they are on. and wish to show loyalty to that team by criticising the other team, and it doesn't matter what about.
Rumours Justin may call a snap election on the back of it.
Oldies drifting to the Liberals.
On the historical precedent they will see their majority cut at least even if they hold onto power
But I hereby solemnly and irrevocably undertake to keep such thoughts to myself henceforward.
Other reason is that Conservatives under relatively new leader Erin O'Toole are NOT doing well, nor are Conservative provincial premiers in Ontario and Alberta.
Thus, they have avoided any to lockdown or not problems.
BBC News - Boris Johnson and wife Carrie take two-day mini honeymoon
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57321078
Any predictions?
On that basis I will not be commenting on this.
I think an unelected petticoat PM in what's meant to be a democracy is probably fair game on a politics website.
Adultery.
https://www.evertonfc.com/news/2164100/club-statement-ancelotti-leaves-everton
I mean, he clearly forgotten them from before...
I'd also point out that Florida had plenty of restrictions - they were just at the City level, not at the State.
Final point: the Swedes don't think they did well.
It's also worth noting that restrictions are far from the only thing that matters. If you normalise for then, the biggest determinant of if you did well or badly is a combination of:
(1) Demographics - in particular the number of single person households (lots = good), and the number of intergenerational households (lots = bad).
(2) Population density and mobility - do people move around a lot, and spend a lot of time in contact with other people. Places that are very reliant on public transport do badly, and places where the car is king do much better.
The UK was always going to perform quite poorly given (2), and is mid-table for (1).
But I think Trump becomes a weaker candidate with every day that passes.
Though with all the supposed classical liberals out there people on the right misuse terms too.
*Maybe because I was wearing a hat and black suit?
The agency is MyWardrobe HQ, who seem to source a lot of secondhand samples at huge discounts.
Good deal for blokes: "I'll rent you a dress."
https://www.google.com/search?q=forex+broker+accept+usdt
During the first lockdown, when all of us followed instructions and stayed at home, you went off on holiday to Wales. Since then you’ve paid only lip service to many of the restrictions. As far as we can tell, you haven’t suffered any significant loss of income and have been able to carry on working throughout. You’ve posted from a variety of locations including Cornwall, Suffolk, some island in Essex, and various parts of London, so you’ve clearly been able to travel about. You’re probably financially better off now than you were before the pandemic started, like I am.
Some genuine empathy with those for whom the last year has truly been catastrophic wouldn’t go amiss.
2023 should be the absolute earliest.
Possible second complainant if he won't resign.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57321468.amp
'In April 2020, Mr Roberts said she might want to "fool around with no strings, you might come and visit me in London".
Later in the exchange, the MP told her he "might be gay but I enjoy… fun times".'
Then I think, fuck it.
(It's a fascinating shell game: the goal of Tether management is to get other people to hold Tether at 1:1 with the USD, by buying when it falls below 99.5cents, and therefore earning a tiny profit. But, of course, these people are picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer, as Tether is being robbed blind. I suspect that at least $20bn of the $62bn has been looted from it already, and at some point it will come crashing down, when people realise there isn't $60bn sitting on the books.)
No travel allowed. Social distancing?
The charge sheet gets longer...
The fact that procedures have been messed up so he hasn’t been removed is a different problem.
And to be fair, she's under no obligation to report him. However, then, of course, she should keep schtum.