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Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe
Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbetting.com
Although we have largely igonored US politic since Biden was inaugurated the former president continues to work hard to undermine the WH2020 outcome and remains the most powerful political force in his party.
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Why don't we do that - it would save dozens of lives?
So while supporting Trump is essential to ensure you win the Republican nominations for your seat, it may equally be scoring potential voters away.
https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-promises-re-run-in-us-election-2024-if-his-health-allows-reports-388427
If Biden does not run for re election and he faces Harris he could even win the general election too, a Mclaughlin poll last month had Trump winning 57% of Republican primary voters support and beating Harris 49% to 45% in the general election.
Trump won 10% of 2020 Biden voters in the poll and held 92% of his own 2020 vote, Harris only won 84% of the 2020 Biden vote however and just 3% of 2020 Trump voters
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/National-Monthly-Omnibus-MAY-Release-1.pdf (p12 and 14)
Trump is an extreme outsider who was never a Republican who has infiltrated and taken over the GOP.
Both completely different and it's only superficial to compare the two.
There was an interesting interview on NPR about a guy who has researched and written a book on celebrity. He had some very interesting things to say about Trump, and the brilliance with which he leveraged his Apprentice fame and social media. The gist was that fame - and capitalizing on it - is all about grabbing people's attention, not about whether the impression is good or bad, and that Trump was the master of grabbing attention. I can't see any of his clan emulating him on that level, thank god.
However it was Boris' inroads amongst the white working class that won him the 2019 election (plus facing Corbyn, the UK Bernie Sanders) much as it was Trump's inroads in white working class areas that won him the 2016 election.
Trump was also a social liberal on issues like abortion and homosexuality, although he paid lip service to the evangelical right to win the GOP nomination. It was more immigration controls that he and Boris used to win white working class support plus promises of greater sovereignty in a globalist world
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9639289/Met-Police-chief-Cressida-Dick-calls-change-allow-force-favour-ethnic-minority-recruits.html
What a damned fool.
The election itself is going to be an absolute derecho of diarrhoea. Maricopa x 1,000 with lawsuits and exchanges of small arms fire. It's going to be brilliantly entertaining.
If you're in favour of stripping away civil liberties then compelling the vaccine on people who don't want it, by force, would save more lives than imprisoning people in their own homes by force.
But it's wrong to compel medical treatments on those who don't want it, and it's wrong to have a lockdown if it's not absolutely needed. If a few primarily antivaxxers die every day going forwards then that's their choice and their freedom as they wanted.
May 13,605,851
April 11,304,404
March 12,160,585
February 9,269,477
January ~ 7,700,000
Trump's win in 2016 and Boris' delivery of Brexit was a defeat for the old school fiscally conservative, internationalist and globalist establishment in the GOP just as it was for the fiscally conservative, pro EU establishment in the Tory Party
I don't think Trump has done so - for if he had he would still be President
Economically I'd prefer a drier Government. Take away Brexit and economically this is quite a wet government.
Many who self identified as wets had tied themselves to the European mast, so yes they were defeated. Heseltine etc. But worth remembering in 1980 just how pro Europe Thatcher was too.
Looking at the Treasury right now I'm struggling to see much that is dry.
Only the divided liberal left in the UK ensured the Boris landslide
The one child policy, that was relaxed to a two child policy in 2015, is now going to be a 3 child policy.
As I understand it, the relaxation to 2 has resulted in a smaller baby boom that was expected, and combined with a shrinking working are population, this would be a sensible policy. but unlikely to have a big impact, if only a small number of people have taken the opportunity to have 2, and even smaller number are likely to have 3.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-allow-couples-have-three-children-cope-aging-society-n1269140?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1399696845274746882?s=20
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Just read the Dominic Sandbrook histories of the time, or Charles Moore's biographies of her. She was in favour purely as a market economics tool and was deeply suspicious of political integration throughout.
So many sources.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-57315436
Sturgeon as usual going for the slightly different approach. Slight slowing of the roadmap, so she will be able to play the we were more cautious than England and faster to the punch, if it all goes tits up.
So 100% of 3 cases per 100,000 would be "widespread" by her logic, but 10% of 1000 cases per 100,000 would not. 🤔
No, I'm not seriously suggesting we do this. But I think simply adding Lab to LD is just as problematic.
Nicola today
Sturgeon says that public health experts are warning that the UK could be at the start of a third wave and says that the R number is almost certainly above one - meaning the epidemic is growing.
But she says the considerable upside is that we "now have a significant advantage that we didn't have in the first or second wave" - referring to the vaccine.
"We do now have evidence that the link between cases and serious illness, hospitalisation and death does appear to be weakening," the first minister says, adding that the number of cases linked to hospital admission has reduced from 10% to 5%.
On topic, I still think, on balance, Trump won't run in 2024 but I am less confident than before. One, because of the possible charges which he may try to drag out with the hope he becomes President and then is immune for 4 years. Two, because I suspect he is looking at Biden and Harris, and thinking he can take both on and win - the former because his physical and mental state looks increasingly frail and the latter because she is a poor candidate but, being Black and female, she will get a free run at the nomination if Biden steps down. Three, because especially if the Chinese lab theory is proven to be true, Trump will be able to say "I told you so" and use it to discredit the Media and the Tech giants who pushed back against the theory, and then use that to claim that the Media / Tech was lying about all their other claims. And, fourth, because the Democrats' own behaviour on the cultural / social / economic fronts is more radical than many Republican-turned-Democrat voters would have thought, which may lead to gains.
The LD vote next time will be pro Starmer on the whole however
Set aside the European issue and look what the government is doing economically: high spending, planning to "invest" more, raising corporation taxes, looking to make it easier to hand out state aid . . . how is that anything other than a wet government?
Its my biggest problem with Boris. I like some of what he does, but he's far too wet for my tastes. I'd much prefer a drier economy than what we have coming forwards.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table
Not the only or even the best tracking site, I know but its able to rank nations so im using it for this.
If you listed the nations by deaths per million averaged over the last week, how many places are doing worse than the UK?
119
Yes 119 nations are doing worse than the UK, and many of the better are really small places like the Vatican on 0. or places where the numbers may not be reliable.
Is the current global economy sustainable with an undemocratic USA and the tensions that will create?
Mansfield Independents may be over the hill after about 4 terms of Mayoralty and two (?) of running the Council. But still 14 seats on Council.
Ashfield Independents now have 10 seats on County, which is all of them in Ashfield. In these seats lowest AI vote share was 45%. Lab highest vote share in these seats was 24%.
County: Tory 37, Lab 15, AI 10, Independent 3, LD 1. Tory-run, now.
Where do AI go next, having all the County seats, and 27/35 of the District seats, down from 31?
Looks like a long-term change.
It will be interesting to see if Sturgeon continues to use the term Kent variant or uses the term Alpha variant instead.
Boris is more like Ragen, talks good or at lest OK, but less keen on what he does. Sadly we have not had a Carter,
Just as the nation has become institutionally scared of Covid so has the government painted itself into a corner whereby it is releasing daily the fact that eight or 80 people have died of Covid.
It will very difficult for them to move to a place whereby those numbers don't matter; those stats will continue to be a stick with which the opposition (or anyone) can beat them.
The only distinction I'd make is that I think it is fair enough to continue with "work from home" advice/support for those who haven't had their vaccine yet.
Let people choose though. If they choose to go back to clubs and pubs cheek to jowl despite being unvaccinated then so be it, that's their choice. If they choose to work from home and avoid hospitality for another couple of month until they've had both jabs that's their choice too.
But it should be about freedom of choice now. Not others making choices on other people's behalf.
The most important fact we need to know is how many vaccinated people end up in hospital / dying and how many of those weren't 105 and had a laundry list of other conditions.
Its time that the economy was completely opened up again and things returned to something like normal. If we don't do that the billions that we have invested in early vaccination will have been wasted.
It doesn't appear, yet, to have included the update to the Peru data which elevates them to the top of the mortality rate table.
Carter was also socially quite conservative, he was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win a majority of evangelical votes for instance, which he managed to do in 1976 when he beat President Ford
Proper explanation and context is needed instead. 600,000 people die a year on average approximately, which is 1,644 a day. So if 8 people have died in a day then Covid is responsible for less than half a percent of entirely normal daily deaths.
That context is missing.
who owns 'OurWouldInDate'? or are there other places I should look at?
1. Trump's statements now about standing in 2024 have almost no informative value. If he doesn't make that claim, he loses a huge amount of his remaining ability to command the spotlight, and a lot of power in the GOP. Of course he says he's standing - it costs nothing to say it and would be a disaster not to. Will he still say it two and a half years from now if the prospects look poor?
2. The circus has already, to a large extent, moved on. He's still extensively discussed amongst people who are very political, but Trump's musings just don't shape the news as they once did and provoke huge debate - he's no longer President, no longer on Twitter, and he's frankly a much diminished force.
3. Punters tend to underestimate the legal jeopardy for Trump now he's a private citizen. The news has been universally terrible for him over the past four months.
4. Punters also tend to underestimate the medical side. It's Trump's 75th birthday in a fortnight, and he's an obese man. His successor is older, of course, but a person's late 70s is a time when serious declining health is very common.
5. Whilst commentary on polls focuses on the remarkable number of Republicans who buy the Big Lie, it's worth reflecting on the substantial minority who don't. Polls show about 30% of Republicans who consider Trump is at least partly to blame for a violent attempted insurrection, and 60% of Independents. That is, ultimately, a big problem for Trump going again. To put it mildly, he burned some bridges there.
None of this makes it impossible that Trump would go again. I just think the likelihood is overstated.
Somehow they have to change the narrative.
The most significant impact for the UK will be the continuing lobotomisation of NATO.
And in Britain at the time the highest rate wasn't 70% but 83%.
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/05/world/worldometer-coronavirus-mystery/
But I'm not taking about hiding date, just releasing a weeks worth at ones, possibly on a Thursday, to avoid the weekend/bank holiday effect.
It should stop somebody saying we have gone form 3 deaths yesterday to 6 today, that's doubling daily, the hospitals will be overrun by the weekend.......
I understand, too, that his finances are not particularly soundly based.
It’s all a bit like a Jenga tower; pull out the wrong piece and down it comes.
Weird decision.
To soon?