I know it's very concentrated among the under-20s (though the rise was concentrated there too) but the Bolton cases seemingly now being in decline doesn't seem to have received very much attention. Am I missing something?
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
Just returned home and switched on the 9.00 o clock news
And predictably both Sky and BBC using the same zero covid scientists even one saying it is going to overwhelm the hospitals
They need putting in their box as it is becoming quite ridiculous
In fairness the BBC News channel had a NERVTAG scientist on who said "it's too soon to say and in two weeks we'll have two weeks' more data" - which is the government line.
The "scrap June 21 now" crowd should be asked "what's wrong with waiting two more weeks to decide"?
They're trying hard to move the needle towards tightening restrictions. It's no good to their case (if they're wrong) if we continue as we are (even without further relaxation). Because if increases in cases is exponential now, then we get to see how it all plays out and proves them right or wrong.
If we reverse the opening up we've already done, then they can always say that it was these actions that meant "disaster averted".
I did a little maths with the COVID Hospitalisations, what this 'exponential' growth will soon over run.
yesterday 133 people where hospitalised, and week on week cases have grown by 23.2%
if we round that up to 25% and take no account of additional vaccine jabs, or the improving weather,
Then how long before the hospitals are overrun? well its 15 weeks, or 105 days before we are at the level of new addmitions we had in January, when the hospitals we busy but not 'over-run'
We have time to wait and see the full effect of vaccination.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
You do have to wonder, with the amount of time so many of these advanced industrialised countries have had to ramp up their testing and yet seem not to have bothered to do so, whether they are failing to look for cases, and especially for novel variants, so that they don't have to report them and account for their existence within their borders?
According to Our World in Data, here are the current number of tests undertaken per confirmed case of Covid-19 in a selection of countries:
When Zambia's testing is better than that of France, that is not a piss-take. It is an intentional regime from a President desperate not to have the people know the extent of the epidemic which has occurred on his watch.
Oh, and who has an upcoming election.
Still - he can close the borders to Brits.... (possibly not unrelated to said election)
They live IN LAKE BAIKAL. And they are three metre high humanoids in silvery suits
"Another incident cited involved six unknown objects that followed a nuclear submarine in the Pacific. When the sub surfaced, so did the objects — which then lifted themselves out of the water and flew away.
"In perhaps the most compelling account, military divers in Siberia's Lake Baikal, the world's deepest lake, encountered "a group of humanoid creatures dressed in silvery suits" at a depth of 160 feet. Three humans died during the ensuing chase."
Almost as intriguing, the objects in the lake behave exactly like the objects viewed, filmed and caught on radar by the USS Omaha in 2019....
I read this USSR account some time ago. Fascinating that they formally record three Russian military personnel being killed by “them”. From memory, the account said that when they were threatened, the humanoids created a current that sucked the humans to the surface giving them the bends. Three died but there were multiple survivors.
A very odd story to concoct and put in the military archives.
Or they screwed up and strayed into a vertical current that they had been warned about. Choice: boss we screwed up and 3 died. Or boss: there were these weird aliens that zapped us…
In soviet Russia…
I am generally persuadable that there is weird stuff out there, but I'm deeply suspicious of humanoid aliens. Too star trek for me.
Aliens: who the fuck knows. So mad it is incomprehensible
However, what we can look at, and what is within the realms of our comprehension, is political behaviour in the USA vis-a-vis this same topic
Look at how the reactions of US presidents to queries on this have changed, or stayed the same
Body language is key. As well as the evolution. I think they do know something which is at least disturbing, and the urge to tell us has grown
God, Hillary Clinton even manages to annoy me in that clip when she's trying to be "folksy". It's just something about her; the voice, the mannerisms, the eyes, the lack of humour.. ugh.
By contrast, George W Bush easily comes across as the most relatable. Even more than Obama.
I see why he was elected President.
Yes, he's quite likeable there
He also looks the most troubled
I genuinely believe (lock me up now, PB mental health wardens!) that incoming US presidents are told something quite startling, even shocking, on this matter, and it unnerves them
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
You do have to wonder, with the amount of time so many of these advanced industrialised countries have had to ramp up their testing and yet seem not to have bothered to do so, whether they are failing to look for cases, and especially for novel variants, so that they don't have to report them and account for their existence within their borders?
According to Our World in Data, here are the current number of tests undertaken per confirmed case of Covid-19 in a selection of countries:
When Zambia's testing is better than that of France, that is not a piss-take. It is an intentional regime from a President desperate not to have the people know the extent of the epidemic which has occurred on his watch.
Opinium lead 23rd April: 11 Opinium lead 30th April: 5 Opinium lead 14th May: 13 Opinium lead 28th May: 6 Opinium lead Xth June: ???
Opinium looks particularly susceptible to the short-term impact of stories that receive saturation coverage in the media - Wallpapergate and Cummingsgate II most recently (like World Wars, we've started numbering them!). Then the saturation coverage ends and the long-term trend reasserts itself. YouGov, by contrast, astutely filters out the most highly-engaged voters and so tends to avoid the whiplash effect produced by the volatile moods of the obsessives following every syllable of the proceedings:
The fact YouGov do that is great. I think it makes them the best pollsters.
But, given the worst poll for the Tories has them with a 30 seat majority, how is Con Maj EVS?
Should be 4/6 for me.
Starmer does like The Jam btw. He especially likes the album of theirs which you said is your favourite. The one you mentioned the other day. He loves that album too.
Oh jolly good. Doesn't make any difference though
My Dad bought me a book for Christmas called "To Be Someone" by Ian D Stone. This IDS is a massive Jam fan and also a massive Arsenal fan, so two big ticks from me, he is in the good books in that respect. Also, my Dad has bought me the book, so I am motivated to read, and enjoy, it. It's the story of a teenager growing up in London supporting the Arsenal and loving The Jam, what's not to like?
A couple of chapters in. getting a real modern left comedian vibe, not making me laugh, but making 'clever'; points. Then, a dig at Brexiteers, comparing Brexit to the numbskullery of the NF in the 70s - tough to take, but I plough on.
Then starts a chapter by stating "Paul Weller was in his mid 20s when he wrote 'I Got By in Time' " - I KNOW Weller was a teenager when that song was released, but I check wiki anyway, hoping against hope to be wrong...
No, I am right. I put the book back on the shelf and move on.
Bit harsh of you. Errors can creep even into good books. Sounds like a Hornby cover. That Fever Pitch of his spawned a little genre.
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Perhaps somebody accidentally added a 0 to the UK population into the model...
Or used the population of India. India. Indian variant. Easy mistake. Anyone can make it. Still, best lockdown hard again in case the typo has exposed a hidden truth....*
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
15K deaths is a bad flu season. Which is not great, but it is a bad flu season. We don't lock down the country for that
At some point we just have to accept we have a nasty new illness in our midst which will kill many, and put a lot of people in bed for weeks, but it isn't any reason to cease normal human society and business. And therapies will get better. Enough
Her argument doesn't make sense. She sets out a worst case scenario and then says that it will lead to more lockdowns, but what would be the point of a lockdown in that case? In practice it never gets as bad as the worst case scenario anyway because people adjust their behaviour according to the risk.
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
15K deaths is a bad flu season. Which is not great, but it is a bad flu season. We don't lock down the country for that
At some point we just have to accept we have a nasty new illness in our midst which will kill many, and put a lot of people in bed for weeks, but it isn't any reason to cease normal human society and business. And therapies will get better. Enough
That point is 14th June, confirming the21st June ease-up is still a go.
Just returned home and switched on the 9.00 o clock news
And predictably both Sky and BBC using the same zero covid scientists even one saying it is going to overwhelm the hospitals
They need putting in their box as it is becoming quite ridiculous
In fairness the BBC News channel had a NERVTAG scientist on who said "it's too soon to say and in two weeks we'll have two weeks' more data" - which is the government line.
The "scrap June 21 now" crowd should be asked "what's wrong with waiting two more weeks to decide"?
They're trying hard to move the needle towards tightening restrictions. It's no good to their case (if they're wrong) if we continue as we are (even without further relaxation). Because if increases in cases is exponential now, then we get to see how it all plays out and proves them right or wrong.
If we reverse the opening up we've already done, then they can always say that it was these actions that meant "disaster averted".
I did a little maths with the COVID Hospitalisations, what this 'exponential' growth will soon over run.
yesterday 133 people where hospitalised, and week on week cases have grown by 23.2%
if we round that up to 25% and take no account of additional vaccine jabs, or the improving weather,
Then how long before the hospitals are overrun? well its 15 weeks, or 105 days before we are at the level of new addmitions we had in January, when the hospitals we busy but not 'over-run'
We have time to wait and see the full effect of vaccination.
The 133 seems to be stuck.
There are some regional numbers which seem more up to date.
If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?
To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.
The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.
Which is simply not true.
Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.
CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations
There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.
It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.
But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
There are two or three specific variants in the COVID-19 virus that massively increases its efficacy as a human vital agent (eg the precise design and location of the furin cleavage site)
To have one of these mutations would be highly unusual. To have multiple mutations, that occurred simultaneously (or at least where we have been completely unable to identify the precursors) is highly highly improbable.
The simple answer is probably the correct one. It is also extremely dull and unexciting:
1. The lab collected the base virus. We know they collected similar viruses 2. The lab tweaked the virus. We know they were undertaking gain of function modifications (from grant applications) including insertion of the furin cleavage site (from published papers) 3. The virus escaped from the lab
It’s a combination of stupidity, greed, negligence, and sheer bad luck. Like pretty much every other disaster that has occurred in the modern world.
To the extent that China is to be blamed it is in respect of slipshod regulation, a cover up and their willingness to encourage foreign travel at a time they knew what was coming
Interesting
They also did much of their research, it turns out, in a BSL2 lab, which has a few masks and labcoats, like a dentist, not the BSL4 maximum security lab with its hazmat suits
The BSL2 lab is much nearer the wet market. If we're looking for an actual source, we should look at the lower level lab
To be fair to the Chinese, that is permitted under the way that global virologists gamed the system. Fucking stupid, but legal.
Fair enough, but it seems Shi never mentioned this, at first. Or she certainly avoided the point, and the Chinese kept stressing how all the work was done at BSL4
How about a different tack. Why should the "natural" origin be doubted?
Because China is putting an enormous effort into finding Animal Zero, testing 80,000 creatures so far, and they've got nothing. There is no positive evidence for the natural not-lab hypothesis, the only argument is that these viruses generally start this way, with natural zoonosis. The more time passes without this crucial evidence, the less likely the hypothesis becomes
In addition, we have the mystery of a virus whose closest relative is in a bat in Yunnan, 1000 miles from Wuhan. Bats are not sold in the Wuhan wet market, nor anywhere else in Wuhan. And somehow this virus went from Yunnan to Wuhan and evolved without infecting anyone on the way....
Of course, we do know one way the bats might have got from Yunnan to Wuhan. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was collecting infected bats in Yunnan, and bringing them back to Wuhan for study, for several years, prior to the pandemic
Ok thanks. But there's a fatal flaw here. I'll be laying it out when I next see you.
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
15K deaths is a bad flu season. Which is not great, but it is a bad flu season. We don't lock down the country for that
At some point we just have to accept we have a nasty new illness in our midst which will kill many, and put a lot of people in bed for weeks, but it isn't any reason to cease normal human society and business. And therapies will get better. Enough
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
Opinium lead 23rd April: 11 Opinium lead 30th April: 5 Opinium lead 14th May: 13 Opinium lead 28th May: 6 Opinium lead Xth June: ???
Opinium looks particularly susceptible to the short-term impact of stories that receive saturation coverage in the media - Wallpapergate and Cummingsgate II most recently (like World Wars, we've started numbering them!). Then the saturation coverage ends and the long-term trend reasserts itself. YouGov, by contrast, astutely filters out the most highly-engaged voters and so tends to avoid the whiplash effect produced by the volatile moods of the obsessives following every syllable of the proceedings:
The fact YouGov do that is great. I think it makes them the best pollsters.
But, given the worst poll for the Tories has them with a 30 seat majority, how is Con Maj EVS?
Should be 4/6 for me.
Starmer does like The Jam btw. He especially likes the album of theirs which you said is your favourite. The one you mentioned the other day. He loves that album too.
Oh jolly good. Doesn't make any difference though
My Dad bought me a book for Christmas called "To Be Someone" by Ian D Stone. This IDS is a massive Jam fan and also a massive Arsenal fan, so two big ticks from me, he is in the good books in that respect. Also, my Dad has bought me the book, so I am motivated to read, and enjoy, it. It's the story of a teenager growing up in London supporting the Arsenal and loving The Jam, what's not to like?
A couple of chapters in. getting a real modern left comedian vibe, not making me laugh, but making 'clever'; points. Then, a dig at Brexiteers, comparing Brexit to the numbskullery of the NF in the 70s - tough to take, but I plough on.
Then starts a chapter by stating "Paul Weller was in his mid 20s when he wrote 'I Got By in Time' " - I KNOW Weller was a teenager when that song was released, but I check wiki anyway, hoping against hope to be wrong...
No, I am right. I put the book back on the shelf and move on.
So many ex-ukippers I know love The Jam. A few lines from them kept me going whenever everything looked shit in my life.
Going to the gigs gave a lot of people a true sense of community. The fact they were from Woking, as nondescript a town as there is, seems important in what they meant.
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
That is beat them around the head with an inflated puffer-fish bad.
There must be a "see who can come up with the most bollocks tweet" contest going on.
Is mathematics no longer a science? Can these "scientists" now self-identify 1 + 1 as being 4,387?
But monsieur she is a professor of Operational Research, which when I briefly endured a term of it as an undergrad was basically some maths.
She currently seems to think that 10% of the country's children are going to die or suffer from long term debilitating illness. And gets quite emotional when challenged on it.
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
At some point we must consider the possibility that there's not just bad models, but maybe the science itself is a bit shit?
I think one thing this COVID pandemic has shown, we need to teach kids how to do proper mathematical modelling....and how to look at models and check for the BS.
Oh and the journos need to do the course as well... although given their inability to learn over the past year, I doubt they will take it in. Prof Peston will probably tell the instructor how they are wrong as he spoke to an expert....
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
As i said earlier, they all seem to be playing about with near infinite populations.
They live IN LAKE BAIKAL. And they are three metre high humanoids in silvery suits
"Another incident cited involved six unknown objects that followed a nuclear submarine in the Pacific. When the sub surfaced, so did the objects — which then lifted themselves out of the water and flew away.
"In perhaps the most compelling account, military divers in Siberia's Lake Baikal, the world's deepest lake, encountered "a group of humanoid creatures dressed in silvery suits" at a depth of 160 feet. Three humans died during the ensuing chase."
Almost as intriguing, the objects in the lake behave exactly like the objects viewed, filmed and caught on radar by the USS Omaha in 2019....
I read this USSR account some time ago. Fascinating that they formally record three Russian military personnel being killed by “them”. From memory, the account said that when they were threatened, the humanoids created a current that sucked the humans to the surface giving them the bends. Three died but there were multiple survivors.
A very odd story to concoct and put in the military archives.
Or they screwed up and strayed into a vertical current that they had been warned about. Choice: boss we screwed up and 3 died. Or boss: there were these weird aliens that zapped us…
In soviet Russia…
I am generally persuadable that there is weird stuff out there, but I'm deeply suspicious of humanoid aliens. Too star trek for me.
Most of us have for years looked at all the ufo stories with apathy, or sometimes amusement at the creative quality of the hoaxer.
But... an interesting thing happens when you make the mental leap that the US government is probably not lying when it indicates non human technology over its air space. You are forced to reconsider the stories that have little or no evidence, as the probability that some of them are true has substantially increased in the last year.
An interesting Australian case of a UFO visit in a school
Are the UFOs an interplanetary version of Cyril Smith MP (Lib Dem) travelling the galaxy to fiddle with kids? I am unconvinced
So why schools? God knows. Maybe they eat chalk and blackboards.
OR kids, being so innocent, will happily report what they see (Sir! Sir! I saw a flying saucer!) whereas adults are always more circumspect, hidebound, scared of looking mental
Opinium lead 23rd April: 11 Opinium lead 30th April: 5 Opinium lead 14th May: 13 Opinium lead 28th May: 6 Opinium lead Xth June: ???
Opinium looks particularly susceptible to the short-term impact of stories that receive saturation coverage in the media - Wallpapergate and Cummingsgate II most recently (like World Wars, we've started numbering them!). Then the saturation coverage ends and the long-term trend reasserts itself. YouGov, by contrast, astutely filters out the most highly-engaged voters and so tends to avoid the whiplash effect produced by the volatile moods of the obsessives following every syllable of the proceedings:
The fact YouGov do that is great. I think it makes them the best pollsters.
But, given the worst poll for the Tories has them with a 30 seat majority, how is Con Maj EVS?
Should be 4/6 for me.
Starmer does like The Jam btw. He especially likes the album of theirs which you said is your favourite. The one you mentioned the other day. He loves that album too.
Oh jolly good. Doesn't make any difference though
My Dad bought me a book for Christmas called "To Be Someone" by Ian D Stone. This IDS is a massive Jam fan and also a massive Arsenal fan, so two big ticks from me, he is in the good books in that respect. Also, my Dad has bought me the book, so I am motivated to read, and enjoy, it. It's the story of a teenager growing up in London supporting the Arsenal and loving The Jam, what's not to like?
A couple of chapters in. getting a real modern left comedian vibe, not making me laugh, but making 'clever'; points. Then, a dig at Brexiteers, comparing Brexit to the numbskullery of the NF in the 70s - tough to take, but I plough on.
Then starts a chapter by stating "Paul Weller was in his mid 20s when he wrote 'I Got By in Time' " - I KNOW Weller was a teenager when that song was released, but I check wiki anyway, hoping against hope to be wrong...
No, I am right. I put the book back on the shelf and move on.
So many ex-ukippers I know love The Jam. A few lines from them kept me going whenever everything looked shit in my life.
Going to the gigs gave a lot of people a true sense of community. The fact they were from Woking, as nondescript a town as there is, seems important in what they meant.
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
At some point we must consider the possibility that there's not just bad models, but maybe the science itself is a bit shit?
No, people just keep doing it wrong. None of these models can be perfect, but ones pumping out BS like well a 2 week lockdown will save anywhere from 600 to 100k lives in 3 months, you have made a mistake.
UFOs - no comment in general, but i do find it amusing when people sometimes posit two scenarios: 1) Russia/China etc have come up with some new craft that apparently defy the laws of physics; or 2) "Aliens".
Now call me illogical, but if the craft defy the laws of physics, they defy the laws of physics. I'm not sure if being extra-terrestrial should be able to overcome this problem
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
As i said earlier, they all seem to be playing about with near infinite populations.
I think they're all just a bit crazy tbh. It's Boris derangement syndrome, fbpe, "we're smarter than the lumpen proletariat" attitude and a few other character flaws all coming together into a massive turd sandwich which then gets signal boosted by media types who are also in some or all of these same groups.
Opinium lead 23rd April: 11 Opinium lead 30th April: 5 Opinium lead 14th May: 13 Opinium lead 28th May: 6 Opinium lead Xth June: ???
Opinium looks particularly susceptible to the short-term impact of stories that receive saturation coverage in the media - Wallpapergate and Cummingsgate II most recently (like World Wars, we've started numbering them!). Then the saturation coverage ends and the long-term trend reasserts itself. YouGov, by contrast, astutely filters out the most highly-engaged voters and so tends to avoid the whiplash effect produced by the volatile moods of the obsessives following every syllable of the proceedings:
The fact YouGov do that is great. I think it makes them the best pollsters.
But, given the worst poll for the Tories has them with a 30 seat majority, how is Con Maj EVS?
Should be 4/6 for me.
Starmer does like The Jam btw. He especially likes the album of theirs which you said is your favourite. The one you mentioned the other day. He loves that album too.
Oh jolly good. Doesn't make any difference though
My Dad bought me a book for Christmas called "To Be Someone" by Ian D Stone. This IDS is a massive Jam fan and also a massive Arsenal fan, so two big ticks from me, he is in the good books in that respect. Also, my Dad has bought me the book, so I am motivated to read, and enjoy, it. It's the story of a teenager growing up in London supporting the Arsenal and loving The Jam, what's not to like?
A couple of chapters in. getting a real modern left comedian vibe, not making me laugh, but making 'clever'; points. Then, a dig at Brexiteers, comparing Brexit to the numbskullery of the NF in the 70s - tough to take, but I plough on.
Then starts a chapter by stating "Paul Weller was in his mid 20s when he wrote 'I Got By in Time' " - I KNOW Weller was a teenager when that song was released, but I check wiki anyway, hoping against hope to be wrong...
No, I am right. I put the book back on the shelf and move on.
Bit harsh of you. Errors can creep even into good books. Sounds like a Hornby cover. That Fever Pitch of his spawned a little genre.
Can’t have someone supposedly obsessed with The Jam not know Weller was a teenager when the debut album came out.
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
That is beat them around the head with an inflated puffer-fish bad.
There must be a "see who can come up with the most bollocks tweet" contest going on.
Is mathematics no longer a science? Can these "scientists" now self-identify 1 + 1 as being 4,387?
But monsieur she is a professor of Operational Research, which when I briefly endured a term of it as an undergrad was basically some maths.
She currently seems to think that 10% of the country's children are going to die or suffer from long term debilitating illness. And gets quite emotional when challenged on it.
I too have done some linear programming. Needs a big vaccine constraint on the graph..
i) It's inherently more infectious, or ii) it's affecting communities with lower vaccination rates or iii) it's affecting communities with higher levels of intergenerational housing or iv) Because we're testing extensively in these communities we're finding more of it?
I don't think we know yet, do we?
v) all of the above? Which makes getting a handle on its "exponential growth" damned near impossible with so many variables.
And all of this says absolutely NOTHING about hospitalisations and deaths, which is the WHOLE POINT of the basis for the roadmap - vaccines decoupling case numbers from serious illness!
A worse wave than January - after 3/4 of adults have had one jab and a half have had both.
Excuse me, but I think there is A FUCKING GREAT BIG FLAW somewhere in their model. Unless they are suggesting having the vaccine is actually the vector for that next wave....
Here is the kind of calc they are coming up with (there's a graph):
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp · 7h If we ended up with 3x as many cases - say 7 million - then even though vaccination continues to protect massively, we could still have about same number of hosp admissions as winter (115K) and a lot of deaths (15K).
15K deaths is a bad flu season. Which is not great, but it is a bad flu season. We don't lock down the country for that
At some point we just have to accept we have a nasty new illness in our midst which will kill many, and put a lot of people in bed for weeks, but it isn't any reason to cease normal human society and business. And therapies will get better. Enough
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
I do agree with your point, but for clarification:
The ONS data, I.e. there weekly random testing of the population has well over a 1/3 of the contrary having had it at some point. so that's 23 million if not more.
Just returned home and switched on the 9.00 o clock news
And predictably both Sky and BBC using the same zero covid scientists even one saying it is going to overwhelm the hospitals
They need putting in their box as it is becoming quite ridiculous
In fairness the BBC News channel had a NERVTAG scientist on who said "it's too soon to say and in two weeks we'll have two weeks' more data" - which is the government line.
The "scrap June 21 now" crowd should be asked "what's wrong with waiting two more weeks to decide"?
They're trying hard to move the needle towards tightening restrictions. It's no good to their case (if they're wrong) if we continue as we are (even without further relaxation). Because if increases in cases is exponential now, then we get to see how it all plays out and proves them right or wrong.
If we reverse the opening up we've already done, then they can always say that it was these actions that meant "disaster averted".
I did a little maths with the COVID Hospitalisations, what this 'exponential' growth will soon over run.
yesterday 133 people where hospitalised, and week on week cases have grown by 23.2%
if we round that up to 25% and take no account of additional vaccine jabs, or the improving weather,
Then how long before the hospitals are overrun? well its 15 weeks, or 105 days before we are at the level of new addmitions we had in January, when the hospitals we busy but not 'over-run'
We have time to wait and see the full effect of vaccination.
It would be better to use England numbers.
Over the past seven days 616 hospital admissions, up from 532 in the seven days previous, just under a 16% increase.
At that rate it would take 26 weeks to reach the peak level of early January.
And that's with 7m (lol) infections. We've only had around 10m so far over two waves with no vaccines for the first and most of the second. I don't understand why the news people do t simply ask who exactly these 7m people are,which JVCI groups do they come from and over what time scale will these infections take place.
As i said earlier, they all seem to be playing about with near infinite populations.
I think they're all just a bit crazy tbh. It's Boris derangement syndrome, fbpe, "we're smarter than the lumpen proletariat" attitude and a few other character flaws all coming together into a massive turd sandwich which then gets signal boosted by media types who are also in some or all of these same groups.
To be honest, i also think there's a fair bit of mixing up of models going on. This is an issue with having "Indie SAGE" all over the place, citing SAGE models as evidence (for eg. the potential massive July peak. There were probably models that showed this potentially, but they relied on significant non-efficacy of vaccines. One would have hoped that these extreme scenarios would now have been ditched in the official SAGE advice (or maybe are only hanging around until they have conclusive evidence in relation to the current "variant of the month") but "Indie SAGE" are still quoting them liberally as plausible.
Whilst as i say, we have NHS CEOs (who presumably are closer to the ground and the inside information) trying to shift the debate to "NHS stretched by medical backlog"
I know it's very concentrated among the under-20s (though the rise was concentrated there too) but the Bolton cases seemingly now being in decline doesn't seem to have received very much attention. Am I missing something?
Quite - Bolton has had it's massive third wave, through a relatively unvaccinated population, and the impact on hospitalisations and deaths was...?
The current data for Bolton are freely available on the Covid dashboard (caveat: the hospital figures were last updated on the 23rd):
Patients admitted in most recent seven day reporting period: 34 (up 9 relative to the previous week) Deaths: 4 (up 1 relative to the previous week)
It's hardly the Black Death, is it? And new cases are already in decline (1,096 in the last seven days, down 168 on the previous week.)
All of this in the epicentre of the Indian variant in this country. One suspects that what has happened in Bolton is that it has been disproportionately seeded with cases imported from India, flooding into an area with below average levels of vaccination, and yet that existing level of vaccination has basically been enough to throttle it. There's certainly no evidence to suggest that additional measures, beyond sensible precautions in the form of surge testing and surge vaccination, are necessary in places like Bolton. It's been subject to the same Covid restrictions as everywhere else in the country, and yet the local hospital is not overwhelmed, the morgues aren't full of corpses, and the spread out of area to neighbouring authorities has been slow and manageable (the next worst local authority area, Blackburn, also spiked early and was therefore also probably seeded directly from India.)
Quite where we're going to get the millions and millions of cases that the ZeroCovidians are wetting about, especially as the disease tries to spread out of the loci of infection and meets lower population densities and higher levels of vaccination in suburban and rural areas, Lord alone knows. If chains of transmission are smashed up, and most of the hitherto serious cases that would've happened are rendered minor or asymptomatic by inoculation, then this disease is finished as a national emergency. It's as simple as that.
In that Obama clip it's worth noting he literally says UFOs are unidentified flying objects. That is to say, unexpected flight patterns of objects they can't explain the movement or shape of and so they are recorded.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
UFOs - no comment in general, but i do find it amusing when people sometimes posit two scenarios: 1) Russia/China etc have come up with some new craft that apparently defy the laws of physics; or 2) "Aliens".
Now call me illogical, but if the craft defy the laws of physics, they defy the laws of physics. I'm not sure if being extra-terrestrial should be able to overcome this problem
Because our laws of physics are bullshit, is the usual answer.
And, indeed, why should a six foot tall bipedal ape evolved from oysters living on an obscure and windy planet in the unfashionable districts of this one particular galaxy amongst billions of other galaxies have solved ALL the riddles of the Multiverse, including - er, cough - dark matter? Especially when the same over-confident gibbon watches so much terrible sport?
UFOs - no comment in general, but i do find it amusing when people sometimes posit two scenarios: 1) Russia/China etc have come up with some new craft that apparently defy the laws of physics; or 2) "Aliens".
Now call me illogical, but if the craft defy the laws of physics, they defy the laws of physics. I'm not sure if being extra-terrestrial should be able to overcome this problem
Well, quite.
It's more likely they've simply been inaccurately observed or measured.
Breaking the laws of physics is no mean feat, and extremely unlikely.
Just returned home and switched on the 9.00 o clock news
And predictably both Sky and BBC using the same zero covid scientists even one saying it is going to overwhelm the hospitals
They need putting in their box as it is becoming quite ridiculous
In fairness the BBC News channel had a NERVTAG scientist on who said "it's too soon to say and in two weeks we'll have two weeks' more data" - which is the government line.
The "scrap June 21 now" crowd should be asked "what's wrong with waiting two more weeks to decide"?
They're trying hard to move the needle towards tightening restrictions. It's no good to their case (if they're wrong) if we continue as we are (even without further relaxation). Because if increases in cases is exponential now, then we get to see how it all plays out and proves them right or wrong.
If we reverse the opening up we've already done, then they can always say that it was these actions that meant "disaster averted".
I did a little maths with the COVID Hospitalisations, what this 'exponential' growth will soon over run.
yesterday 133 people where hospitalised, and week on week cases have grown by 23.2%
if we round that up to 25% and take no account of additional vaccine jabs, or the improving weather,
Then how long before the hospitals are overrun? well its 15 weeks, or 105 days before we are at the level of new addmitions we had in January, when the hospitals we busy but not 'over-run'
We have time to wait and see the full effect of vaccination.
It would be better to use England numbers.
Over the past seven days 616 hospital admissions, up from 532 in the seven days previous, just under a 16% increase.
At that rate it would take 26 weeks to reach the peak level of early January.
It is probably however also worth looking at actual numbers in hospital as well (and growth or otherwise). If large numbers of admissions are turned around in a couple of days, then this significantly removes the potential for overstretch.
And sure enough - despite the growth in admissions, there has been no growth in overall numbers in hospital in England at all. Which suggests to me that people are turning up as a precaution with minor symptoms (after positive tests) and being quickly released.
In that Obama clip it's worth noting he literally says UFOs are unidentified flying objects. That is to say, unexpected flight patterns of objects they can't explain the movement or shape of and so they are recorded.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
You can be pretty sure the Americans have ruled out: meteors, space debris, and unregistered drones
That leave Chinese stealth aircraft..... or something else
Unless, of course, the Americans are doing a MASSIVE psy-ops campaign on the rest of the world. This is not impossible
In that Obama clip it's worth noting he literally says UFOs are unidentified flying objects. That is to say, unexpected flight patterns of objects they can't explain the movement or shape of and so they are recorded.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
You can be pretty sure the Americans have ruled out: meteors, space debris, and unregistered drones
That leave Chinese stealth aircraft..... or something else
Unless, of course, the Americans are doing a MASSIVE psy-ops campaign on the rest of the world. This is not impossible
Or, the unusually religious and faith-driven Americans are gullible and subject to confirmation bias on their observation errors.
Why wouldn't the UK have similar records or reports? Or, indeed, any other major Western nation?
A bad tweet from Peter Tatchell criticising a Hong Kong democracy activist over her choice of flags: "I don't think her British flag is appropriate. #HongKong is Chinese not British."
In that Obama clip it's worth noting he literally says UFOs are unidentified flying objects. That is to say, unexpected flight patterns of objects they can't explain the movement or shape of and so they are recorded.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
You can be pretty sure the Americans have ruled out: meteors, space debris, and unregistered drones
That leave Chinese stealth aircraft..... or something else
Unless, of course, the Americans are doing a MASSIVE psy-ops campaign on the rest of the world. This is not impossible
Or, the unusually religious and faith-driven Americans are gullible and subject to confirmation bias on their observation errors.
Why wouldn't the UK have similar records or reports? Or, indeed, any other major Western nation?
In that Obama clip it's worth noting he literally says UFOs are unidentified flying objects. That is to say, unexpected flight patterns of objects they can't explain the movement or shape of and so they are recorded.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
You can be pretty sure the Americans have ruled out: meteors, space debris, and unregistered drones
That leave Chinese stealth aircraft..... or something else
Unless, of course, the Americans are doing a MASSIVE psy-ops campaign on the rest of the world. This is not impossible
Or, the unusually religious and faith-driven Americans are gullible and subject to confirmation bias on their observation errors.
Why wouldn't the UK have similar records or reports? Or, indeed, any other major Western nation?
They do and they are, especially now
"The UK Government may relaunch a team of UFO hunters in the wake of a US report into alien visitors, a senior defence source has revealed
"Speaking exclusively to The Telegraph, the source said: "I think that if there was enough evidence to suggest that there was something, and that we needed to do it as well as the US, then of course we'd think about it. We'd look at it. There's all sorts of things that we wouldn't rule out, and this would certainly be one of them."
"The source stressed that the constantly evolving nature of emerging science and technology "can suddenly open up whole new universes" and it was important to ensure the UK does not lose sight of the need to "identify [and] track objects in space and in our airspace"."
UFOs - no comment in general, but i do find it amusing when people sometimes posit two scenarios: 1) Russia/China etc have come up with some new craft that apparently defy the laws of physics; or 2) "Aliens".
Now call me illogical, but if the craft defy the laws of physics, they defy the laws of physics. I'm not sure if being extra-terrestrial should be able to overcome this problem
Where are you getting defy the laws of physics from? Which laws? It's usually sloppy talk for they do shit which we can't, which is a different claim.
Given the Government were fine with this, presumably the lifting of all restrictions on outdoor sporting crowds and other gatherings is being brought forward?
Viral growth is always exponential because tommorow's cases are based on today's numbers..... that's true even when numbers are going down.
Absolutely, it's exceedingly hard to get linear growth instead - and if you see linear growth that's normally decent evidence that you're simply failing to measure the exponential growth.
I was just checking the England vaccination statistics, and in the latest release we're now up to two-thirds of 60-64 year olds who have had both doses. We have another ten day's worth of people down the age groups who will be double-dosed, and with the vaccine fully effective in time for June 21st
Just returned home and switched on the 9.00 o clock news
And predictably both Sky and BBC using the same zero covid scientists even one saying it is going to overwhelm the hospitals
They need putting in their box as it is becoming quite ridiculous
In fairness the BBC News channel had a NERVTAG scientist on who said "it's too soon to say and in two weeks we'll have two weeks' more data" - which is the government line.
The "scrap June 21 now" crowd should be asked "what's wrong with waiting two more weeks to decide"?
They're trying hard to move the needle towards tightening restrictions. It's no good to their case (if they're wrong) if we continue as we are (even without further relaxation). Because if increases in cases is exponential now, then we get to see how it all plays out and proves them right or wrong.
If we reverse the opening up we've already done, then they can always say that it was these actions that meant "disaster averted".
I did a little maths with the COVID Hospitalisations, what this 'exponential' growth will soon over run.
yesterday 133 people where hospitalised, and week on week cases have grown by 23.2%
if we round that up to 25% and take no account of additional vaccine jabs, or the improving weather,
Then how long before the hospitals are overrun? well its 15 weeks, or 105 days before we are at the level of new addmitions we had in January, when the hospitals we busy but not 'over-run'
We have time to wait and see the full effect of vaccination.
It would be better to use England numbers.
Over the past seven days 616 hospital admissions, up from 532 in the seven days previous, just under a 16% increase.
At that rate it would take 26 weeks to reach the peak level of early January.
That is quite a disparity, between UK and England,
But keeping with the 25% number, and equivalating it to an R number, (Lots of caveats, I know)
If we reduce the Unvaccinated population by: (1.25-1)/1.25 i.e 1/5 (please check, I think this is right)
What I don't know is, should this be first does, second does, all adults or all people?
first does: 39,379,411
Second does: 25,537,133
Uk Adults: 52,646,271
UK Total: 66,764,887
Therefor Unvaced totals: (and 1/5 that in brackets)
Fist does:
a) UK Adalts: 13,266,860 (2,653,372) b) Uk Total: 27,385,476 (5,477,095)
Second Does:
Uk Adalts 27,109,138 (5,421,828) UK Total: 41,227,747(8,245,549)
That's a big range of numbers, but with 595,000 is doses a day we will have jabbed the 8 million and the 5 million, just after the June 21 full reopening.
Given the Government were fine with this, presumably the lifting of all restrictions on outdoor sporting crowds and other gatherings is being brought forward?
Bit of a cock-up if no-one compared the number of doses left with the size of the crowd.
Another one to be cancelled....or does he get a pass from the woke-ists because he had the right attitudes on other things?
John Maynard Keynes was supporter of 'racist' eugenics
He was an active supporter of eugenics - a racist, ableist, and classist theory that the genetic quality of the human race could be improved through selective breeding and sterilisation.
"He was particularly concerned with the growing populations of non-white people."
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
PCR positivity. And in that chart is what is worrying the wonks most. The good news is that tracking speed on variants has improved as a new sequencing system has been set up that allows positive tests to be sequenced and categorised much quicker. We do have to bear that in mind as regards the talk of the Indian variant, the data on it is returning faster now.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
Interesting, thanks.
I suppose the difficult scenario for the government will be if cases are rising but deaths are flat. Because the decision would be easy if both were rising or both were flat.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
This is what is in the background mood music, but it still makes not much sense. Because if they are shitting it about loosening restrictions then they should probably be shitting it about maintenance of current levels of restrictions. But are they really going to start pushing for a reversal of the roadmap? Let’s face it, case numbers are not going to start to drop or stabilise in the next couple of weeks without a dramatic lowering of testing. They need to properly start focusing on hospitalisation as the determining factor, but they seem wedded to the idea of using case numbers as the leading indicator. Those without an alterior agenda have nevertheless become prisoners of their models.
Which goes against everything that they said in relation to vaccines and decoupling the link.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
But not shitting themselves enough to bring in border control.
For all the talk of the “transmissibility” of the “India” variant what there has hardly been any discussion of is its relative harmfulness compared to prior versions (to unvaccinated and vaccinated alike). Who’s to say we aren’t seeing something more transmissible, but less harmful? The two are not linked.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
How many of them are banned from travelling to France?
I have no problem with France keeping the border tight; it saves asinine debates in our media, and we can get on with rebuilding life.
It's just Macron being a twat, as usual.
EU have redefined "vaccinated" as a single dose, and are driving opening up on that basis, with Brussels demanding as open as possible borders between regions with high and low incidence, and high and low vaccination.
I did enjoy the story today about the Danish / US spying, and Merkel / Macron frothing like Australian Lager. I wonder what the probability is that France ever spied on anyone in that manner? If Germany had, we'd have heard about it by now from the Russians.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
In any case worldometer gives German tests at 60m while the UK's PCR tests number 93m so if that 60m is the number of PCR tests in Germany then the UK is doing approximately twice the rate of PCR of Germany.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
How many of them are banned from travelling to France?
I have no problem with France keeping the border tight; it saves asinine debates in our media, and we can get on with rebuilding life.
It's just Macron being a twat, as usual.
EU have redefined "vaccinated" as a single dose, and are driving opening up on that basis, with Brussels demanding as open as possible borders between regions with high and low incidence, and high and low vaccination.
I did enjoy the story today about the Danish / US spying, and Merkel / Macron frothing like Australian Lager. I wonder what the probability is that France ever spied on anyone in that manner? If Germany had, we'd have heard about it by now from the Russians.
The Danes have long been onside with the evil Anglo Saxon hegemony in Western intelligence as have the Swedes. People should take note who it was targeted against, Its walking distance to a good guess of why.
How many of them are banned from travelling to France?
I have no problem with France keeping the border tight; it saves asinine debates in our media, and we can get on with rebuilding life.
It's just Macron being a twat, as usual.
EU have redefined "vaccinated" as a single dose, and are driving opening up on that basis, with Brussels demanding as open as possible borders between regions with high and low incidence, and high and low vaccination.
I did enjoy the story today about the Danish / US spying, and Merkel / Macron frothing like Australian Lager. I wonder what the probability is that France ever spied on anyone in that manner? If Germany had, we'd have heard about it by now from the Russians.
Ignoring Macron being twattish, EU countries are right to go entirely down the one dose path, because that is by far the quickest way to get rid of the virus. And are also correct to open up earlier. Yes, it will mean 100 odd deaths a day in France, Germany, etc. as they open up, but that is a smaller price to pay than keeping economies closed for four or five additional months.
We got the vaccine procurement spot on, but we could have - and should have - held back on second doses until pretty much everyone had had first doses. And we should have been much quicker to open up.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
Israel: 80% of adults vaccinated, nightclubs open, country now open to tourism (so long as people have been double vaccinated. Covid cases yesterday: 5.
Basically, keep vaccinating and stop worrying. The cases are heading down. Even Israel had some mini spikes on the way down. But they held their nerve, opened up, and it's over there.
I had a chat with an old pal of mine that I hadnt spoken to in ages Turns out his latest project work gives him a pretty good seat as regards the ongoing UK-wide management of the Covid issue.
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
Israel: 80% of adults vaccinated, nightclubs open, country now open to tourism (so long as people have been double vaccinated. Covid cases yesterday: 5.
Basically, keep vaccinating and stop worrying. The cases are heading down. Even Israel had some mini spikes on the way down. But they held their nerve, opened up, and it's over there.
Maybe so but there are many risk averse voices advising government. It may well be the politicians who decide to accept the risk, that this rise will blow over without much damage, over some of the advice likely to be coming their way right now.
Has anyone been to Albuquerque? Tomorrow's special election for the House of Representatives is for the district which includes the city.
Worked on a previous special congressional election in NM CD1 back in 1998, when the seat, then held by Republican, was won by another GOPer, Heather Wilson who represented the district for the next decade. Since 2008, however, it's been held by Democrats (helped by redistricting after 2010 census) with over 55% of the vote.
Special elections mean lower turnout, which likely favors Republicans in 2021 special. So will be VERY interesting to see how this turns out.
BTW, Albuquerque is a desert town, a river (the Rio Grande) runs through it but it is a VERY dry place, at least where H2O is concerned; cold beer is a different matter! NM being a VERY thirsty state, one thing that Hispanics & Anglos agree on. Bueno!
FYI, New Mexico is the only state in the union that has an Official State Question: Red or Green?
Addendum - Albuquerque is located on a plain on east side of the Rio Grande, which gradually rises until you get to Sandia Mountain which overlooks the city.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
Of course there are millions of antigen tests being done in Germany. They are just not included in "our world in data". Which is why their figures are junk.
France: 1200 positive tested cases, 126 deaths in hospitals.
Italy 1800 and 82, Germany 2100 and 89
Can we now conclude quite clearly that the French (and others) simply aren't testing any one on anything like the scale of the UK, and the idea that the UK is the current concerning "hotspot" in Europe is simply nonsense?
According to world in data the UK's current tests per 1000 are approximately three times that of France and Italy, seven times that of Germany and Spain, ten times that of Poland and fifteen times that of Romania.
Of course there are millions of antigen tests being done in Germany. They are just not included in "our world in data". Which is why their figures are junk.
Opinium lead 23rd April: 11 Opinium lead 30th April: 5 Opinium lead 14th May: 13 Opinium lead 28th May: 6 Opinium lead Xth June: ???
Opinium looks particularly susceptible to the short-term impact of stories that receive saturation coverage in the media - Wallpapergate and Cummingsgate II most recently (like World Wars, we've started numbering them!). Then the saturation coverage ends and the long-term trend reasserts itself. YouGov, by contrast, astutely filters out the most highly-engaged voters and so tends to avoid the whiplash effect produced by the volatile moods of the obsessives following every syllable of the proceedings:
The fact YouGov do that is great. I think it makes them the best pollsters.
But, given the worst poll for the Tories has them with a 30 seat majority, how is Con Maj EVS?
Should be 4/6 for me.
Starmer does like The Jam btw. He especially likes the album of theirs which you said is your favourite. The one you mentioned the other day. He loves that album too.
Oh jolly good. Doesn't make any difference though
My Dad bought me a book for Christmas called "To Be Someone" by Ian D Stone. This IDS is a massive Jam fan and also a massive Arsenal fan, so two big ticks from me, he is in the good books in that respect. Also, my Dad has bought me the book, so I am motivated to read, and enjoy, it. It's the story of a teenager growing up in London supporting the Arsenal and loving The Jam, what's not to like?
A couple of chapters in. getting a real modern left comedian vibe, not making me laugh, but making 'clever'; points. Then, a dig at Brexiteers, comparing Brexit to the numbskullery of the NF in the 70s - tough to take, but I plough on.
Then starts a chapter by stating "Paul Weller was in his mid 20s when he wrote 'I Got By in Time' " - I KNOW Weller was a teenager when that song was released, but I check wiki anyway, hoping against hope to be wrong...
No, I am right. I put the book back on the shelf and move on.
So many ex-ukippers I know love The Jam. A few lines from them kept me going whenever everything looked shit in my life.
Going to the gigs gave a lot of people a true sense of community. The fact they were from Woking, as nondescript a town as there is, seems important in what they meant.
Comments
There must be a "see who can come up with the most bollocks tweet" contest going on.
Is mathematics no longer a science? Can these "scientists" now self-identify 1 + 1 as being 4,387?
He also looks the most troubled
I genuinely believe (lock me up now, PB mental health wardens!) that incoming US presidents are told something quite startling, even shocking, on this matter, and it unnerves them
* it hasn't
"is believed to be" (by whom?)
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1399474061487624195?s=20
Oh and the journos need to do the course as well... although given their inability to learn over the past year, I doubt they will take it in. Prof Peston will probably tell the instructor how they are wrong as he spoke to an expert....
https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1398922619076841473?s=20
Mad, of course. Except there was a famous UFO visit to a school in Zimbabwe
https://twitter.com/MiddleOfMayhem/status/1268207147407441920?s=20
And there was a famous UFO visit to a school in Wales
https://twitter.com/UFOlogistUK/status/1299438044139921409?s=20
Are the UFOs an interplanetary version of Cyril Smith MP (Lib Dem) travelling the galaxy to fiddle with kids? I am unconvinced
So why schools? God knows. Maybe they eat chalk and blackboards.
OR kids, being so innocent, will happily report what they see (Sir! Sir! I saw a flying saucer!) whereas adults are always more circumspect, hidebound, scared of looking mental
Tim ‘spoons Martin’s Desert Island choices were as I recall pretty good.
1) Russia/China etc have come up with some new craft that apparently defy the laws of physics; or
2) "Aliens".
Now call me illogical, but if the craft defy the laws of physics, they defy the laws of physics. I'm not sure if being extra-terrestrial should be able to overcome this problem
He was on thin ice (A Waters song) anyway
The ONS data, I.e. there weekly random testing of the population has well over a 1/3 of the contrary having had it at some point. so that's 23 million if not more.
Over the past seven days 616 hospital admissions, up from 532 in the seven days previous, just under a 16% increase.
At that rate it would take 26 weeks to reach the peak level of early January.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Whilst as i say, we have NHS CEOs (who presumably are closer to the ground and the inside information) trying to shift the debate to "NHS stretched by medical backlog"
Patients admitted in most recent seven day reporting period: 34 (up 9 relative to the previous week)
Deaths: 4 (up 1 relative to the previous week)
It's hardly the Black Death, is it? And new cases are already in decline (1,096 in the last seven days, down 168 on the previous week.)
All of this in the epicentre of the Indian variant in this country. One suspects that what has happened in Bolton is that it has been disproportionately seeded with cases imported from India, flooding into an area with below average levels of vaccination, and yet that existing level of vaccination has basically been enough to throttle it. There's certainly no evidence to suggest that additional measures, beyond sensible precautions in the form of surge testing and surge vaccination, are necessary in places like Bolton. It's been subject to the same Covid restrictions as everywhere else in the country, and yet the local hospital is not overwhelmed, the morgues aren't full of corpses, and the spread out of area to neighbouring authorities has been slow and manageable (the next worst local authority area, Blackburn, also spiked early and was therefore also probably seeded directly from India.)
Quite where we're going to get the millions and millions of cases that the ZeroCovidians are wetting about, especially as the disease tries to spread out of the loci of infection and meets lower population densities and higher levels of vaccination in suburban and rural areas, Lord alone knows. If chains of transmission are smashed up, and most of the hitherto serious cases that would've happened are rendered minor or asymptomatic by inoculation, then this disease is finished as a national emergency. It's as simple as that.
I can think of several reasons you might get a few dozen of those a year, and they'd therefore be accounted for as "UFOs" - but it doesn't mean you jump from there to they're "aliens".
They'll probably all have remarkably banal explanations. Meteors, Chinese stealth aircraft, space debris re-entering earth's atmosphere, unregistered drones or planes etc.
And, indeed, why should a six foot tall bipedal ape evolved from oysters living on an obscure and windy planet in the unfashionable districts of this one particular galaxy amongst billions of other galaxies have solved ALL the riddles of the Multiverse, including - er, cough - dark matter? Especially when the same over-confident gibbon watches so much terrible sport?
Answer: we haven't solved them
It's more likely they've simply been inaccurately observed or measured.
Breaking the laws of physics is no mean feat, and extremely unlikely.
And sure enough - despite the growth in admissions, there has been no growth in overall numbers in hospital in England at all. Which suggests to me that people are turning up as a precaution with minor symptoms (after positive tests) and being quickly released.
That leave Chinese stealth aircraft..... or something else
Unless, of course, the Americans are doing a MASSIVE psy-ops campaign on the rest of the world. This is not impossible
Why wouldn't the UK have similar records or reports? Or, indeed, any other major Western nation?
(And an unreconstructed Marxist).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFO_sightings_in_the_United_Kingdom
"The UK Government may relaunch a team of UFO hunters in the wake of a US report into alien visitors, a senior defence source has revealed
"Speaking exclusively to The Telegraph, the source said: "I think that if there was enough evidence to suggest that there was something, and that we needed to do it as well as the US, then of course we'd think about it. We'd look at it. There's all sorts of things that we wouldn't rule out, and this would certainly be one of them."
"The source stressed that the constantly evolving nature of emerging science and technology "can suddenly open up whole new universes" and it was important to ensure the UK does not lose sight of the need to "identify [and] track objects in space and in our airspace"."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/28/britains-x-files-governments-ufo-hunters-may-restart-search/
This is a very real worldwide story. This does not mean aliens are here, of course
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9638009/Unmasked-Red-Don-Oxford-handed-nuclear-secrets-Czech-spies.html
Close the third rate institution down...
Given the Government were fine with this, presumably the lifting of all restrictions on outdoor sporting crowds and other gatherings is being brought forward?
I was just checking the England vaccination statistics, and in the latest release we're now up to two-thirds of 60-64 year olds who have had both doses. We have another ten day's worth of people down the age groups who will be double-dosed, and with the vaccine fully effective in time for June 21st
But keeping with the 25% number, and equivalating it to an R number, (Lots of caveats, I know)
If we reduce the Unvaccinated population by: (1.25-1)/1.25 i.e 1/5 (please check, I think this is right)
What I don't know is, should this be first does, second does, all adults or all people?
first does: 39,379,411
Second does: 25,537,133
Uk Adults: 52,646,271
UK Total: 66,764,887
Therefor Unvaced totals: (and 1/5 that in brackets)
Fist does:
a) UK Adalts: 13,266,860 (2,653,372)
b) Uk Total: 27,385,476 (5,477,095)
Second Does:
Uk Adalts 27,109,138 (5,421,828)
UK Total: 41,227,747(8,245,549)
That's a big range of numbers, but with 595,000 is doses a day we will have jabbed the 8 million and the 5 million, just after the June 21 full reopening.
John Maynard Keynes was supporter of 'racist' eugenics
He was an active supporter of eugenics - a racist, ableist, and classist theory that the genetic quality of the human race could be improved through selective breeding and sterilisation.
"He was particularly concerned with the growing populations of non-white people."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/31/john-maynardkeynes-supporter-racist-eugenics-visitors-bloomsbury/
For example they are comparing PCR + antigen tests done in the UK with only the PCR tests done in Germany. So it's completely ridiculous.
One thing we should have learnt by now is not to trust these data websites. You have to go to original sources.
In Canada. Trudeau winning over the oldies. October GE rumoured.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winning-over-older-normally-conservative-voters/amp/
Up until today my view was yes cases will go up for a bit due to reopening, of course they will. As long as we maintain the vaccine driven breaking of the previous correlation between cases and hospitalisation & deaths, thats fair enough. The hospitalisation & death rate dont look to be rising at a rate that would justify new measures
After having that chat today, I'm not so optimistic about the planned reopening coming off. His view was that some offcials are 'shitting themslves at the moment', and suggests that the near total drop of restrictions isnt likely. A lot will depend on how the rate of rises peter out over the next week or so but the scientists & other wonks are not going to take that much of risk that it wont seep through to significant effect on hospitalisations & deaths.
I am not an advocate by any means for compulsory vaccination (a few professions aside) as the British public seems pretty up for being jabbed, but we need to accelerate it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I suppose the difficult scenario for the government will be if cases are rising but deaths are flat. Because the decision would be easy if both were rising or both were flat.
Which goes against everything that they said in relation to vaccines and decoupling the link.
What there isn't an example of is any exponential increase to infinity.
It's the link that PHE provide to their database - all the raw data is accessible from there.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/developers-guide#version
It's just Macron being a twat, as usual.
EU have redefined "vaccinated" as a single dose, and are driving opening up on that basis, with Brussels demanding as open as possible borders between regions with high and low incidence, and high and low vaccination.
I did enjoy the story today about the Danish / US spying, and Merkel / Macron frothing like Australian Lager. I wonder what the probability is that France ever spied on anyone in that manner? If Germany had, we'd have heard about it by now from the Russians.
In any case worldometer gives German tests at 60m while the UK's PCR tests number 93m so if that 60m is the number of PCR tests in Germany then the UK is doing approximately twice the rate of PCR of Germany.
Talking of German testing….
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-jens-spahn-coronavirus-test-centers-alleged-fraud/
We got the vaccine procurement spot on, but we could have - and should have - held back on second doses until pretty much everyone had had first doses. And we should have been much quicker to open up.
Basically, keep vaccinating and stop worrying. The cases are heading down. Even Israel had some mini spikes on the way down. But they held their nerve, opened up, and it's over there.
Special elections mean lower turnout, which likely favors Republicans in 2021 special. So will be VERY interesting to see how this turns out.
BTW, Albuquerque is a desert town, a river (the Rio Grande) runs through it but it is a VERY dry place, at least where H2O is concerned; cold beer is a different matter! NM being a VERY thirsty state, one thing that Hispanics & Anglos agree on. Bueno!
FYI, New Mexico is the only state in the union that has an Official State Question: Red or Green?
Addendum - Albuquerque is located on a plain on east side of the Rio Grande, which gradually rises until you get to Sandia Mountain which overlooks the city.
Bob Dylan - Knockin' on Heaven's Door (Live)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCV84dTevX0
One version has it that Billy the Kid's last words were a question.
NOT "red or green"? But rather, "¿Quién es?"