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Punters confident that the Tories will win the July 1st Batley and Spen by-election – politicalbetti
Punters confident that the Tories will win the July 1st Batley and Spen by-election – politicalbetting.com
The Betdata.io chart of the Betfair market has shown very little real movement since the former LAB MP quit the seat after becoming the May of West Yorkshire. Given how poorly Labour is doing at the moment you would have thought that the party would have done everything in its power to stop by-elections from happening. Not so – the former MP was allowed to run for the mayoralty and now Starmer has another problem on his hands.
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I don't see how he doesn't get a big boost from having steered us through and out the other side. And B&S is the first chance, politically, to express that relief.
Telegraph
Conservative 8/15 (Skybet)
Labour 13/8 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
Even with the aid of Gorgeous George, I expect, sadly, a Labour hold.
I am very uneasy how the media seem to have been captivated by the zero covid, anti government brigade and that they are almost subservient to their views
Just when we need a vigorous and serious media they are failing the country big time and their narrative needs to be challenged
I think it was said on the last thread that if the country is not opened on the 21st June there will we be widespread anger and I do agree, but I think it is more likely that it will be ignored as people decide they are not going to be dictated to by a select few of zero covid zealots who have no care on the economic damage or of course the mental health and delayed urgent medical attention required by so many of our fellow citizens
I do believe we should be provided with far more forensic detail on hospitalisation including the vaccine state of those in hospital, the severity of their condition, and just how many are succumbing to covid and the exact state of the NHS
Yesterday, I listened to Sturgeon and when she was asked to provide these details she prevaricated (which she is a world champion at) and went around the question and it was quite apparent she did not want to reveal how many in Scotland's hospital were unvaccinated or had had their first dose.
Furthermore, I listened to the Welsh news last night which reported there were 8 mile queues accessing North Wales (and they are so welcome) and I was almost 'open mouthed' when Drakeford said that of course everyone coming into Wales must have had a covid test and continue having them whilst here.
Either he was extreme naivety or he is just divorced from reality
I believe we should open on the 21st June, am content for Boris to leave the decision until the 14th, despite again the crescendo of demands from our 'out of touch' media for an answer now, and I have every intention of doing my own thing but with common sense no matter what the media, covid apparatchiks or anyone else says to the contrary
Some (like Edmunds and Ferguson) are not convinced that we are out the other side yet. FWIW I hope you are right and they are wrong.
But Chesham and Amersham will be an easy Tory hold, even if the majority is reduced a bit. Labour have a fight on their hands here, especially if the Heavy Woollen vote is up for grabs.
We are now seeing what feels like wall-to-wall interviews with those scientists who seem to want us in a position where no one dies of covid or is in hospital. They focus on that at all costs, ignoring the wider health issues that you mention never mind the economy and small businesses. Yes, in an ideal world no one would die of covid. But if the price for that is loads of other people die from undetected cancer then I would say you have lost a sense of balance and proportion.
The Conservatives were defending a 29% majority in Ryedale in 1986 and lost it on a 19% swing:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Ryedale_by-election
A year later they won a landslide general election victory.
Then there's Crosby, Portsmouth South, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley and no doubt others.
As is normal in by-elections, the Tory majority in C&A should fall substantially - indeed, on the historical precedent detailed above, it should be an easy Lib Dem gain. The fact that we're even expecting it to be held shows the extent of Tory strength under Boris Johnson.
Yes, I agree -- it looks a stupid, tactical misstep. A completely unnecessary gamble by SKS -- which, if lost, provides still more ammunition for his enemies.
Why on earth was Tracy Brabin allowed to do this?
She should not have stood in GE 2019 in B&S if she wanted to go for the Mayoralty.
No doubt when elected in B&S, Brabin emphasised the honour of succeeding her friend & predecessor, the murdered Jo Cox.
But, that only lasted until a better opportunity came along.
Scotland is one of the most homogeneous, monocultural societies on Earth. Take the cities out of the equation and it's white as the driven snow.
The garden won't dig itself.
But though they are no longer used to losing or being behind losing the next one shouldn't spook the Tories too much.
It is not unusual to hear foreign languages in Edinburgh but they are mainly Spanish, French and Polish with a bit of Romanian thrown in. You do hear the odd bit of Punjabi or Hindi and a smattering of Chinese but the vast bulk of our immigrants are white Europeans. So I would say not quite monocultural (compared to the likes of Japan) but certainly nowhere near as diverse.
Of course anyone can get a provisional licence and it acts as primary ID in the same way as a full licence. But I am, sadly, coming to the conclusion that inability to provide ID is becoming such a problem for less-advantaged members of the community that we do need ID cards for all.
I expect -- visually -- there will be quite an obvious difference.
And -- not unconnected -- is the fact that the former two have been much more successful in recent years than the third.
Current FIFA rankings 4th, 17th and 44th.
Many of us thought the country would go down the toilet after Brexit. Few realised it would happen so quickly
You're desperate for an agenda sorry, but the reality is Government's lose by elections.
If it happens it would have all the electoral significance of eg Crosby 1981.
Toodle Pip!
The contrast between G W Bush andTrump is particularly instructive here: at the time Bush was seen as appalling, stupid, possibly the worst President ever. And the Trump came along and made him look like Lincoln in comparison, but any attempts to warn voters of this were made much harder by the fact that that is what political opponents always say.
Yes, we have some nuts who want to keep us locked down for ever, like Pagel, or Contrarian (who is patently refusing the vaccine so he can be proved right on endless restrictions). But they can and should be ignored.
Bottom line is, if schools can be reopened without everything descending into chaos, then there’s no reason to keep anything else under control. If there were likely to be a steep rise in hospitalisations and deaths from reopening, given we’ve been open for six consecutive weeks it would have happened by now. It was an extremely brave call to reopen them on the 8th March and although it was plainly made for all the wrong reasons it has turned out to be the right decision.
Therefore, the argument is to bring forward the ending of restrictions, not put it back.
And an even better argument is that everyone is starting to ignore them anyway and attempting to keep imposing them will merely bring the law into disrepute.
In fact, the only good argument for trying to extend is that I think Harper and Baker would actually be able to topple Johnson and put a half-decent PM in.
From what I know of the people of Batley and Spen, the quickest way to get them to vote Labour would be to tell them they’re all likely to vote Tory because some people in London have said that’s what people like them do.
I’m not saying it never happens; there are always a number of new accounts that start up during election campaigns and are never heard from again once the Exit Poll drops, but it’s probably best to assume everyone is genuine.
https://www.tes.com/news/sqa-assessment-2021-unfair-say-most-teachers-survey
And I thought the disaster the drug addled retards at the DfE had cooked up was bad...
The LibDems.
Traditionally the LibDems would be looking to challenge strongly in a byelection wherever it was and whoever had held the seat previously.
Now, not a mention.
That’s a stark contrast to November where at no time did we have significantly under 25% off even after the government had ordered us to ignore their own rules on what constituted a close contact to keep the numbers as low as possible.
Partly I think that’s due to low numbers of cases outside, but equally, that in itself is a sign the vaccine programme has worked.
I was totally opposed to schools going back in a panicky rush in two weeks over the 8th March because I thought it would lead to an explosion of cases. I have held my hands up and admitted I was totally wrong. Why are these scientists on Indie SAGE too cowardly or too dishonest to do the same?
In passing, how do you rate the Tories' chances of holding on to Chesham and Amersham? This is a seat that the Conservatives have never lost, and now it looks like a marginal.
I've noticed purveyors of that argument tend not to be keen on testing their hypothesis by allowing Scotland the powers to sully our 'homogeneous, monocultural' society. That their reason for this is that it would make Scotland an entry point for loads more foreigns to make their way to England thereby providing even more folk to be racist towards is quite entertaining though.
If the brief had been to better an unscrupulous amoral chisseler rather than a simple incompetent I think they'd have gone for a brawler.
Forget the forensics go for the groin. I'm thinking Jess Phillips or Andy Burnham.
Well, for starters the people actually advising the government aren’t constantly trying to get themselves on the news!
Hopefully the “Independent SAGE” cranks will be lining up for a live half-hour interview with Andrew Neil on GB news in a couple of weeks’ time...
It is difficult to believe anyone (within a democracy) will come close to Trump so comparing Boris to Trump is not wise for the reasons you say.
There are characteristics that do become apparent early on. For instance May came across as honest, but stubborn and inflexible and not a communicator. Boris seems to be not concerned with any detail, yet willing to state stuff that it turns out not to be true. In many cases this may not be intentional, but there is no correction afterwards. The quote to remember is the one in front of the Committee where Andrew Tyrie said 'That is very interesting Boris, except none of it is really true is it Boris'. He was just rattling off the old untrue EU rules myths. This has all continued as PM eg border down the Irish sea stuff. This seems to be reflected in his life generally, which appears chaotic. It may be a good trait for a 'on the hoof' campaigner, but not for a CEO/PM.
He is however not a Trump and we should remember that when being critical.
As I’ve been double jabbed and am now more than three weeks past the second I’ve stopped wearing a mask except to go between lessons or my office, and I’ve told my pupils that it is up to them if they wear masks in my lessons.
I have noticed that some need to take their masks off for me to hear them; I suspect that I really should get my hearing checked out properly, but I’m too vain.
Whether anyone will is a different question, of course.
Similarly, given how ridiculously long it takes I have given up reporting my test results on the government website. Why should I waste about 10 minutes reporting a negative test because they are too stupid to save the key info correctly and then have to get an even stupider text telling me what the result was? (And there is no facility to opt out of doing so, either, you have to enter a mobile phone number.)
I’d obviously report a positive, but a negative? Forget it. It needs to be a 30-second process or it just isn’t worth the hassle.
Even at their peak, there were frequently by-elections where the Lib Dems effectively passed and weren't a factor.
This sort of one is a classic case, and would have been even if the LDs were at 20% in the polls. A seat where they've never been higher than third, in a contest where they are throwing everything at a better prospect.
I'm afraid PB is increasingly dominated by people like Richard, with no interest in having a serious, informed discussion.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/06/the-case-for-making-personality-ratings-a-good-electoral-indicator/
Cummings was right on at least one point. What sort of system do we have when the choice at the last election was Corbyn vs Johnson and Labour and the Lib Dems have done nothing of note since.
That’s a relief, as it means I can go back to lip reading and actually understand what they’re saying. Much less exhausting and frustrating.
And yes the LibDems always looked to challenge at byelections.
Sometimes they did well and sometimes they didn't.
But they never gave up before they even started as they did in Hartlepool and Airdrie.
As to C&A, not my part of the world, but as it contains plenty of the LibDems core vote of posh remainers they should do well.
Though they may have a difficulty juggling their messages of "don't build more house" to the oldies and their "build houses" to the younger voters.
Though whatever happens its almost certain to return to being a safe Conservative seat at the next general election.
And his encounter with her didn't end well. Imagine him faced with a more combative, better informed, woman such as Jess Phillips. He'd be back to arguing with Nanny!
"This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.
Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.
https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
New cases /million 7 day average : vaccinations/100
Netherlands: 182, : 51.6
UK: 42 : 92.3.....
That said, they really don’t seem to have tried.
What doesn’t help, is that the areas the government messed up (international restrictions etc), the opposition either would have done the same thing, or opposed purely from the view of protecting public-sector workers - at a time when millions of low-paid private sector workers were keeping supermarkets and delivery services alive.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/election-best-bet-stop-brexit-61664
https://www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result
But like I say, don’t bother unless you test positive. It is a complete and utter waste of time.
Edit: I missed the initial induction/ training for the LFTs as I was still shielding at the time. It might have been mentioned then.
But strangely, she is still a professor in a prestigious uni.
Her other work must be truly amazing?
As you will probably be aware I really don't like our style of democracy, which I have referred to before as an elected dictatorship. One party runs everything, with little meaningful debate on decisions. The other opposes everything regardless. I would like to see more meaningful constructive debate with fluid alliances and coalitions so that Govts really do take notice of parliament. It is a difficult compromise because you don't want to end up with a Government that can't goven which does happen.