This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
I thought they were all interconnected...I mean would anybody be surprised if Bill Gates turned out to be a little green man in a human costume?
You would have thought an alien, with their superior technology, would have come up with a better operating system than Windows.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
I thought they were all interconnected...I mean would anybody be surprised if Bill Gates turned out to be a little green man in a human costume?
You would have thought an alien, with their superior technology, would have come up with a better operating system than Windows.
Cunning plans from the aliens, ensure the earthlings don't develop superior technology....
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
Both stories involve unexplained flights. Perhaps there's a link?
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
So far then, we’ve got May, Blair and possibly Macmillan had leads like this.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Has a party in its 12th consecutive year in power ever achieved such leads?
THe Tories had a poll that put them ahead by 51-34 in January 1991.
Close, but that's only a 17-point lead. Not good enough to catch Boris
So Boris Johnson is very slightly better than John Major, on your terms.
He did win the next election, of course...
With the largest number of votes in British electoral history...
The other option is we could say Major won his first election, following an exhausted and discredited leader who had buggered up a deal with Europe, before tripping over his own feet on said European deal and running a sleazy administration full of no talent until he crashed to the lowest share of the vote of any party of government at that time at his second attempt.
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
I thought they were all interconnected...I mean would anybody be surprised if Bill Gates turned out to be a little green man in a human costume?
You would have thought an alien, with their superior technology, would have come up with a better operating system than Windows.
Cunning plans from the aliens, ensure the earthlings don't develop superior technology....
That was part of the villainous aliens' plan in Mass Effect
Your civilization is based on the technology of the mass relays. Our technology. By using it, your civilization develops along the paths we desire. We impose order on the chaos of organic life. You exist because we allow it, and you will end because we demand it.
The others should protest that. It should be like football where you get sent off for denying a clear and obvious goal scoring opportunity.
No chance. And it was quite clearly not deliberate.
Verstappen’s fine as he’s on the front row. Hamilton looked as though he might have done a much better lap - has cost him serious points, so Verstappen on balance might be grateful.
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Possibility of a gearbox penalty if they have to change it. Will have to check the Betfair rules.
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
So far then, we’ve got May, Blair and possibly Macmillan had leads like this.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Has a party in its 12th consecutive year in power ever achieved such leads?
THe Tories had a poll that put them ahead by 51-34 in January 1991.
Close, but that's only a 17-point lead. Not good enough to catch Boris
So Boris Johnson is very slightly better than John Major, on your terms.
He did win the next election, of course...
With the largest number of votes in British electoral history...
The other option is we could say Major won his first election, following an exhausted and discredited leader who had buggered up a deal with Europe, before tripping over his own feet on said European deal and running a sleazy administration full of no talent until he crashed to the lowest share of the vote of any party of government at that time at his second attempt.
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
It really doesn't, because if you superimpose events from the 1992 Parliament onto the 2019 Parliament, the scenario we're in is one in which John Major shrugged off Black Wednesday as if it were nothing and had made Tony Blair a national laughing stock by 1994...
Mr. B, I hope you bet with the Exchange rather than Sportsbook.
Still not forgotten they refused a proper payout on Hamilton winning because he started from the pit lane. Which was public knowledge at the time I made the bet.
Edited extra bit: you could hedge by laying Leclerc for the win, if you think he'll get a penalty.
Coffee House @SpecCoffeeHouse 'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
Jeez, what a massive pile of bollocks. Does Nelson simply rely on his readers simply believing what he says because they want to believe it? Those who did, you know, actually read the famous report will remember graphs like this:
... which really doesn’t convey an “all or nothing” message.
Coffee House @SpecCoffeeHouse 'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Possibility of a gearbox penalty if they have to change it. Will have to check the Betfair rules.
Betfair will pay on the result of the Q session, not the grid for the race. Leclerc is the winner.
They have to replace every broken part with one that’s identical, or they start from the pit lane. A new gearbox is a five place penalty, if they have to change it.
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
So far then, we’ve got May, Blair and possibly Macmillan had leads like this.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Has a party in its 12th consecutive year in power ever achieved such leads?
THe Tories had a poll that put them ahead by 51-34 in January 1991.
Close, but that's only a 17-point lead. Not good enough to catch Boris
So Boris Johnson is very slightly better than John Major, on your terms.
He did win the next election, of course...
With the largest number of votes in British electoral history...
The other option is we could say Major won his first election, following an exhausted and discredited leader who had buggered up a deal with Europe, before tripping over his own feet on said European deal and running a sleazy administration full of no talent until he crashed to the lowest share of the vote of any party of government at that time at his second attempt.
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
It really doesn't, because if you superimpose events from the 1992 Parliament onto the 2019 Parliament, the scenario we're in is one in which John Major shrugged off Black Wednesday as if it were nothing and had made Tony Blair a national laughing stock by 1994...
That was the year Blair became LOTO. You mean 1995.
But then, you also thought Dominic Cummings could be trusted. How’s that going?
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Possibility of a gearbox penalty if they have to change it. Will have to check the Betfair rules.
Betfair will pay on the result of the Q session, not the grid for the race. Leclerc is the winner.
I hope it stays that way IRL, too. The first corner battle is going to be very interesting between those two.
Coffee House @SpecCoffeeHouse 'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
Jeez, what a massive pile of bollocks. Does Nelson simply rely on his readers simply believing what he says because they want to believe it? Those who did, you know, actually read the famous report will remember graphs like this:
... which really doesn’t convey an “all or nothing” message.
To be fair, that graph suggests that "no matter what we do, we are fucked".
Coffee House @SpecCoffeeHouse 'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
Jeez, what a massive pile of bollocks. Does Nelson simply rely on his readers simply believing what he says because they want to believe it? Those who did, you know, actually read the famous report will remember graphs like this:
... which really doesn’t convey an “all or nothing” message.
To be fair, that graph suggests that "no matter what we do, we are fucked".
And 120,000 deaths later I think we can say they were probably right.
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
So far then, we’ve got May, Blair and possibly Macmillan had leads like this.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Has a party in its 12th consecutive year in power ever achieved such leads?
THe Tories had a poll that put them ahead by 51-34 in January 1991.
Close, but that's only a 17-point lead. Not good enough to catch Boris
So Boris Johnson is very slightly better than John Major, on your terms.
He did win the next election, of course...
With the largest number of votes in British electoral history...
The other option is we could say Major won his first election, following an exhausted and discredited leader who had buggered up a deal with Europe, before tripping over his own feet on said European deal and running a sleazy administration full of no talent until he crashed to the lowest share of the vote of any party of government at that time at his second attempt.
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
It really doesn't, because if you superimpose events from the 1992 Parliament onto the 2019 Parliament, the scenario we're in is one in which John Major shrugged off Black Wednesday as if it were nothing and had made Tony Blair a national laughing stock by 1994...
That was the year Blair became LOTO. You mean 1995.
But then, you also thought Dominic Cummings could be trusted. How’s that going?
No, I thought that the Cummings story was a stupid witch hunt and that the Tories would recover from the hit they took from it in the polls. That worked out exactly as I predicted.
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Possibility of a gearbox penalty if they have to change it. Will have to check the Betfair rules.
Betfair will pay on the result of the Q session, not the grid for the race. Leclerc is the winner.
I hope it stays that way IRL, too. The first corner battle is going to be very interesting between those two.
Yep, I think that RB and Mercedes have the faster race pace, Leclerc being on pole and getting away ahead will make for a great race.
Shocking to see Lewis genuinely nowhere, that’s not happened in a while.
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
So far then, we’ve got May, Blair and possibly Macmillan had leads like this.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Has a party in its 12th consecutive year in power ever achieved such leads?
THe Tories had a poll that put them ahead by 51-34 in January 1991.
Close, but that's only a 17-point lead. Not good enough to catch Boris
So Boris Johnson is very slightly better than John Major, on your terms.
He did win the next election, of course...
With the largest number of votes in British electoral history...
The other option is we could say Major won his first election, following an exhausted and discredited leader who had buggered up a deal with Europe, before tripping over his own feet on said European deal and running a sleazy administration full of no talent until he crashed to the lowest share of the vote of any party of government at that time at his second attempt.
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
It really doesn't, because if you superimpose events from the 1992 Parliament onto the 2019 Parliament, the scenario we're in is one in which John Major shrugged off Black Wednesday as if it were nothing and had made Tony Blair a national laughing stock by 1994...
That was the year Blair became LOTO. You mean 1995.
But then, you also thought Dominic Cummings could be trusted. How’s that going?
No, I thought that the Cummings story was a stupid witch hunt and that the Tories would recover from the hit they took from it in the polls. That worked out exactly as I predicted.
They have recovered from the headline hit. They’re still less trusted than Labour.
As for ‘stupid,’ what is stupid about going after a man who repeatedly broke quarantine, infecting multiple government ministers in the process, and repeatedly smugly lied to save his own (incidentally completely worthless, pointless, useless and damaging) career?
What is foolish, at the very least, is saying it wasn’t important. Which you still are. What does it say about your hero that he protected a man who was not merely a criminal but a failure the government has been far better off without?
I’ve spent a great deal of time in Shanghai and frankly there’s virtually nothing for the Western tourist. A photo of the Bund, a drink on the balcony bar of the Indigo and that’s it. Hangzhou is slightly better. The broad issue is the domestic tourist market in China is so large that there’s never time or space and many of the “sights” are pastiche reconstructions with about as much connection to history as a Barratt house called The Blenheim.
Parts of Sichuan are worth seeing. I like Hong Kong and used to go there for a weekend to get away from the feeling of always being watched. For obvious reasons I haven’t been there recently but friends there tell me it’s changed, even for the non-Chinese.
Part of the interest is that it is not on the mainstream tour party itinerary. I find the idea of the pastiche English Town quite culturally interesting in itself.
We all look for different things so we should say what it is that we like (or dislike). My comments are all superficial, based on 4 visits of a week or so on business 8 years ago, so take with a pinch of salt.
Shanghai appeals to me because of its mixture of ultra-modern architecture (which I love) and Chinese twists on Western metro-culture - I remember coming across a jazz street orchestra outside a shopping arcade, which looked simultaneously very familiar and very strange. Hangzhou has the lovely Western Lake, which must be perfect for romantic strolls if you're in the right company and, um, the pollution isn't too intense - it was one of those places in transition with very modern sectors and traditional little streets with tiny shops. Hong Kong city was too much of the latter for me - zillions of tiny shops selling every possible variety of trinket - but I've heard it's great if you go outside the city (or if you like zillions of tiny shops, of course). Beijing is worthy and the Forbidden City is well-preserved, but it all seemed unexciting - Bonn to Shanghai's Berlin - except for the modestly daring 798 Art Zone.
I never got into the further interior provinces - what are they like?
I love both Shanghai and Hong Kong. The modern architecture in both is interesting, but for me the attraction is the teeming humanity. Nanjing Road on a Saturday is a humanwatching smorgasbord
That was with Blair as leader.. let's not forget 2001 and 2005 WITH BLAIR as leader and PM... .. you think Starmer can do that from the position of LOTO? LMAO.... is more like it.
The question was whether such polling for a government in mid term was unprecedented.
I was pointing out it wasn’t.
So I’m not sure what your post is about.
Your wave hello seemed to me to suggest that a recovery was possible. I just pointed out your figures were with Blair as leader. With Starmer its LMAO...
Unless something strange happened that I have forgotten, or unless you are a raging Corbynista who thinks Blair was just a Tory, those figures are with Hague as leader.
Indeed, it is an unhappy precedent for Labour. It took the Tories 15 years to recover from that.
But the point - again - is that it shows such polling leads are not unprecedented for a mid-term government. Which is what Contrarian was claiming. Because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. That’s what the ‘waves hello’ was about.
I’ve got a feeling Macmillan had similar leads in early 1961 as well, although I don’t have the figures to hand. @justin124 would be the person to ask. Now that would be a much happier precedent for Labour, as they did still win the next election.
Though that did require High Gaitskell's death, I think.
Comments
He did win the next election, of course...
Obviously, this has no plausible parallels to Boris Johnson.
In the wall.
Your civilization is based on the technology of the mass relays. Our technology. By using it, your civilization develops along the paths we desire. We impose order on the chaos of organic life. You exist because we allow it, and you will end because we demand it.
It was a prophecy all along.
Anyone follow the tip ?
And it was quite clearly not deliberate.
Verstappen’s fine as he’s on the front row. Hamilton looked as though he might have done a much better lap - has cost him serious points, so Verstappen on balance might be grateful.
Mr. B, nope, but congrats on getting that right.
Surprised and slightly dismayed the Verstappen-Perez gap was so large at this particular circuit as it's been a very strong one for the Mexican. Either the Red Bull car is weird or the environment there is not fantastic.
Will have to check the Betfair rules.
Still not forgotten they refused a proper payout on Hamilton winning because he started from the pit lane. Which was public knowledge at the time I made the bet.
Edited extra bit: you could hedge by laying Leclerc for the win, if you think he'll get a penalty.
Does Nelson simply rely on his readers simply believing what he says because they want to believe it?
Those who did, you know, actually read the famous report will remember graphs like this:
... which really doesn’t convey an “all or nothing” message.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/may/22/radioheads-thom-yorke-and-jonny-greenwood-form-new-project-the-smile
They have to replace every broken part with one that’s identical, or they start from the pit lane. A new gearbox is a five place penalty, if they have to change it.
But then, you also thought Dominic Cummings could be trusted. How’s that going?
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
The first corner battle is going to be very interesting between those two.
NEW THREAD
Shocking to see Lewis genuinely nowhere, that’s not happened in a while.
As for ‘stupid,’ what is stupid about going after a man who repeatedly broke quarantine, infecting multiple government ministers in the process, and repeatedly smugly lied to save his own (incidentally completely worthless, pointless, useless and damaging) career?
What is foolish, at the very least, is saying it wasn’t important. Which you still are. What does it say about your hero that he protected a man who was not merely a criminal but a failure the government has been far better off without?
But that’s your call.
NEW THREAD