That was with Blair as leader.. let's not forget 2001 and 2005 WITH BLAIR as leader and PM... .. you think Starmer can do that from the position of LOTO? LMAO.... is more like it.
The question was whether such polling for a government in mid term was unprecedented.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
If we're buying Australian wine and beef instead of from France or Ireland, it wouldn't even affect the balance of trade.
You can't look at trade statistics in isolation and argue that something is 'fucked up', otherwise you would never have advocated membership of the EU.
But it's so easy to take individual stats out of context to push one's own agenda.
< Just a polite question but do you really think we will be back to normal by the Autumn
And judging by figures released yesterday, if we are the economy will have taken off and the feel good factor should be extraordinary and likely to continue well into 2022
A polite question deserves a reasoned answer - it depends on what you mean by "normal". If you mean, will life return in its entirety to how things were on January 1st 2020, no. "Hybrid" working, that is, working in an office 1-2 days per week and at home otherwise is, I believe, going to become the norm for many office workers after an initial "splurge" of returns. Those clamouring for us to return to offices often have a strong vested interest (property developers) in that happening so I take their arguments with a barrel of salt.
As for the economy, I don't share a lot of the optimism on here and I look forward to being proved wrong. The unemployment numbers and retail sales numbers suggest, as we all knew, a lot of pent-up demand and that will be "splurged" out through the summer. The problem for me is a tight labour market and an excess of demand over supply looks a recipe for inflation and there were signs of that in the latest economic data.
Essentially, if the economy is a car, Covid was the equivalent of an emergency stop. Since then, we have been slowly revving up while keeping the hand brake on (like a hot rod or an American teen movie) and now we are letting the hand brake go and careering away. The hot rod doesn't maintain acceleration or direction indefinitely and the same will be true of the economy once the froth is out of the system.
As in the late 80s, strong demand and full employment are going to cause problems - we're already seeing sterling appreciate against the greenback and those who cheered the devaluation of sterling after the 2016 Referendum (rightly in terms of exports) will now have to argue how an appreciating currency impacts. We could raise interest rates (the traditional response) to help exporters but inflation is in the background and the last thing we should be doing is constantly pumping money into the economy to fuel yet more demand.
I think you have it right about hybrid working.
In my Industry that appears very much the way things are going.
In discussions with others in the Insurance market I can't think of one person who wants things to reset to the way they were pre covid.
Of course that has implications for other sectors of the economy
But I do not miss the commute at all and would be happy to only go into the office when clients were in
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
< Just a polite question but do you really think we will be back to normal by the Autumn
And judging by figures released yesterday, if we are the economy will have taken off and the feel good factor should be extraordinary and likely to continue well into 2022
A polite question deserves a reasoned answer - it depends on what you mean by "normal". If you mean, will life return in its entirety to how things were on January 1st 2020, no. "Hybrid" working, that is, working in an office 1-2 days per week and at home otherwise is, I believe, going to become the norm for many office workers after an initial "splurge" of returns. Those clamouring for us to return to offices often have a strong vested interest (property developers) in that happening so I take their arguments with a barrel of salt.
As for the economy, I don't share a lot of the optimism on here and I look forward to being proved wrong. The unemployment numbers and retail sales numbers suggest, as we all knew, a lot of pent-up demand and that will be "splurged" out through the summer. The problem for me is a tight labour market and an excess of demand over supply looks a recipe for inflation and there were signs of that in the latest economic data.
Essentially, if the economy is a car, Covid was the equivalent of an emergency stop. Since then, we have been slowly revving up while keeping the hand brake on (like a hot rod or an American teen movie) and now we are letting the hand brake go and careering away. The hot rod doesn't maintain acceleration or direction indefinitely and the same will be true of the economy once the froth is out of the system.
As in the late 80s, strong demand and full employment are going to cause problems - we're already seeing sterling appreciate against the greenback and those who cheered the devaluation of sterling after the 2016 Referendum (rightly in terms of exports) will now have to argue how an appreciating currency impacts. We could raise interest rates (the traditional response) to help exporters but inflation is in the background and the last thing we should be doing is constantly pumping money into the economy to fuel yet more demand.
Thank you for your observations and quite possible but I am sure we all hope that we can recover without the worst aspects including inflation going out of control
I think that, yes, the weather is playing a part in the urgent desire for travel, hence the problem OGH describes. It IS an issue. Most of my double-jabbed friends are superkeen to go somewhere sunny, ASAP
Because this May really IS like November:
Last November: mean max 12.9; Mean min 8.1; overall mean 10.5; rain: 58mm
This May to date: mean max 13.9; mean min 7.7; overall mean 10.6; rain: 64mm
Note the LOWER minimums this May than last November
Just had a look at the GFS 06Z Charts and the ECM 00Z charts and if I were you, I'd be off to the airport.
No sign of any prolonged warm weather through the end of the month and into early June. Drier certainly at times but with the wind direction more north and east than south and west, it's not going to be excitingly warm. I do think the Bank Holiday will be reasonable for many especially in the far north and west of Scotland.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
But as @williamglenn points out, the rise in imports from Australia is likely due to falling imports from the EU.
It's that time of year, isn't it? When you get that first, fresh, chilly tang in the air. Like a vague but definite threat. The leaves are gold, but they tremble, and darken, in the rain
There is news of war in a foreign land, and it is coming nearer. On the outskirts of the city, the cannon fire can be heard. Muffled faraway booms
Remember when Boris said it was lockdown not the vaccines that was responsible for the big fall in COVID cases.
Well, all three of us in my household currently have stinking colds (almost certainly acquired from my nieces). So I can confirm that viruses are very much spreading again.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
How is that fucked up? It is the total volume of trade that matters for welfare, not the balance. Otherwise, North Korea would be a more successful trading nation than we are.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
It's that time of year, isn't it? When you get that first, fresh, chilly tang in the air. Like a vague but definite threat. The leaves are gold, but they tremble, and darken, in the rain
There is news of war in a foreign land, and it is coming nearer. On the outskirts of the city, the cannon fire can be heard. Muffled faraway booms
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
On those figures, we would still be a net exporter. Are you sure of that last sentence or is there some nuance in the figures I’ve missed?
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
UK exports to Australia will rise and most of the Australian gains in the UK market will come from EU exports to the UK.
The figures are also a little dubious, it is still far cheaper for Australian producers to export to Asia than the UK for example
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
I think that, yes, the weather is playing a part in the urgent desire for travel, hence the problem OGH describes. It IS an issue. Most of my double-jabbed friends are superkeen to go somewhere sunny, ASAP
Because this May really IS like November:
Last November: mean max 12.9; Mean min 8.1; overall mean 10.5; rain: 58mm
This May to date: mean max 13.9; mean min 7.7; overall mean 10.6; rain: 64mm
Note the LOWER minimums this May than last November
Just had a look at the GFS 06Z Charts and the ECM 00Z charts and if I were you, I'd be off to the airport.
No sign of any prolonged warm weather through the end of the month and into early June. Drier certainly at times but with the wind direction more north and east than south and west, it's not going to be excitingly warm. I do think the Bank Holiday will be reasonable for many especially in the far north and west of Scotland.
What a load of rubbish. It’s not going to be a heatwave but it’s going to be dry and will feel warm in the strong late May sun. Just nice late spring weather.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
Does it matter? Australian imports will compete with other imports. It's EU exports to the UK that are going to come under very big pressure.
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
Your last paragraph is correct but also labour is in a very bad place at present and facing a resurgent green party
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
Boris must be hoping that his numbers recover from this mid-term shellacking he is getting.
Sorry, did I say Boris? Meant Starmer..... Oh. Really? That's not how it works?
Is that poll pretty much unprecedented for a part in power in mid term? must be close to it.
It certainly reflects the stunning success of the vaccinations and Starmer's implosion.
I also think that it is because the government have discovered that they can throw money at every problem and avoid most hard decisions. Personally, I preferred Mrs Thatcher's approach of taking hard decisions at the start of a Parliament, then hoping the public reward you by the end of it, rather than running in campaign mode all the time.
However, you can't argue with an 18-point lead in mid-term.
You could argue with it if you think that it will now wear down into minus figures, just as soon as the electorate realises that they are the mugs who are going to have to pick up the bills for Johnson and Sunak.
Johnson is short-sighted and rather stupid really.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
On those figures, we would still be a net exporter. Are you sure of that last sentence or is there some nuance in the figures I’ve missed?
You’re right, we will remain marginal net exporters.
But I love the complacency from PB Tories that this is all at the expense of the French and Irish.
Thank you for your observations and quite possible but I am sure we all hope that we can recover without the worst aspects including inflation going out of control
I'm not expecting inflation to be "out of control" (I'm certainly not talking mid-70s levels) but if you think about it, it's been nearly 30 years since anyone cared about inflation or interest rates.
Culturally, a whole generation (or two) has grown up not worrying about mortgage rates and living to a means where paying the mortgage isn't an issue. Mrs Stodge and I cleared our mortgage debt and hopefully many other homeowners did as well but more recent homeowners won't and servicing the mortgages that now exist may become more of a challenge as and when rates rise.
We also have the housing market which, as more properties are built and come onto the market, may suffer if rates rise and demand is choked off - I don't know.
Inflation is the other issue especially if you have labour shortages as are already being seen in the US and here as well. Full employment is fine for a while but if labour shortages lead to wage-led inflation as workers start being in the position they've not been for decades of being able to command better salaries, that feeds into the general economy.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
Does it matter if we switch some of our trade deficit from the EU to Australia? Also, forecasts like this aren't exactly brilliant. They use the gravity model which has been hugely discredited.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
It's that time of year, isn't it? When you get that first, fresh, chilly tang in the air. Like a vague but definite threat. The leaves are gold, but they tremble, and darken, in the rain
There is news of war in a foreign land, and it is coming nearer. On the outskirts of the city, the cannon fire can be heard. Muffled faraway booms
Winter
Eh??? It's May. It's Spring.
Someone turns, and frowns, as soldiers march across the cobbles, heading for the station. Rumours of looting, in the provinces, are whispered in the cafes; today, the strudel is less flavoursome, the Einspanner less buoying
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
Does it matter? Australian imports will compete with other imports. It's EU exports to the UK that are going to come under very big pressure.
Which is why there’s such opposition to the Aussie deal from the hardcore Remoaners. It’s a large barrier to re-entry to the EU.
What a load of rubbish. It’s not going to be a heatwave but it’s going to be dry and will feel warm in the strong late May sun. Just nice late spring weather.
Yes, that's basically what I said.
Why don't you try reading and understanding what someone has said before firing off a response?
Good job Brittas is going to get soft soap interview with Piers Moron to boost his ratings.
Bloody hell - that is dire for Labour - who would have thought that appearing to hate the working class and your country would hurt eh?
People squawk this trope like parrots but it's tosh. The polls were neck and neck until 4 months ago. What has happened since then to drive this big Con lead, do we think?
Is it that Labour have started to hate the working class and Britain? - Or is it that the government's vaccines have beaten the pandemic before almost any other country in the world?
Answers on a postcard and absolutely no prizes for getting it right.
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
Baxtered, JFF - Con Maj 136 on current boundaries so maybe 150-160 on new boundaries.
Blair, as usual, got it right when he said if Labour replaced Corbyn they'd be 20 points behind.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
How is that fucked up? It is the total volume of trade that matters for welfare, not the balance. Otherwise, North Korea would be a more successful trading nation than we are.
It's also using the old busted gravity model which says that it's more difficult to export services to a country 5000 miles away vs one that's 500 miles away. We know that not to be true and we also know that the UK exports more services than it does goods. I'd be shocked if the figures 5 years from the date of signing looked anything like that.
What a load of rubbish. It’s not going to be a heatwave but it’s going to be dry and will feel warm in the strong late May sun. Just nice late spring weather.
Yes, that's basically what I said.
Why don't you try reading and understanding what someone has said before firing off a response?
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
Does it matter if we switch some of our trade deficit from the EU to Australia? Also, forecasts like this aren't exactly brilliant. They use the gravity model which has been hugely discredited.
Since *some* of the Brexit argument was a mercantilist one that Britain could repair its trade deficit if unshackled to the EU, then yes.
Also, where are you getting this idea that the gravity model has been discredited?
Good job Brittas is going to get soft soap interview with Piers Moron to boost his ratings.
Bloody hell - that is dire for Labour - who would have thought that appearing to hate the working class and your country would hurt eh?
People squawk this trope like parrots but it's tosh. The polls were neck and neck until 4 months ago. What has happened since then to drive this big Con lead, do we think?
Is it that Labour have started to hate the working class and Britain? - Or is it that the government's vaccines have beaten the pandemic before almost any other country in the world?
Answers on a postcard and absolutely no prizes for getting it right.
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
Does it matter if we switch some of our trade deficit from the EU to Australia? Also, forecasts like this aren't exactly brilliant. They use the gravity model which has been hugely discredited.
Since *some* of the Brexit argument was a mercantilist one that Britain could repair its trade deficit if unshackled to the EU, then yes.
Also, where are you getting this idea that the gravity model has been discredited?
What our trade balance is with one country isn't important. That deal would improve our balance of trade if the increase in Australian imports is at the expense of current imports.
Did you find booking trains difficult in China? Or did you use a UK agent?
It's a few years back but as I recall I just bought a ticket at the station - I'm sure I didn't use a UK agent. But it may have changed so don't rely on me.
We too had to go to the station in person to book but it was in 2009, so that may no longer be the case. And, having travelled 'soft sleeper' from Beijing to Xian, I can't begin to imagine what the 'hard sleeper' would have been like!
According to the Dept of Int’l Trade, the Australian FTA is projected to boost U.K. exports to Australia by 7.3% while Ozzie exports to the U.K. should rise 83.2%
We are seriously fucked up in this country.
You are consistent but maybe quote the actual figures
83.2% from what
U.K. exported $7.9bn to AUS, 2019 AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
On those figures, we would still be a net exporter. Are you sure of that last sentence or is there some nuance in the figures I’ve missed?
You’re right, we will remain marginal net exporters.
But I love the complacency from PB Tories that this is all at the expense of the French and Irish.
Scots and Welsh more like.
It's not complacency, it's just numbers. The UK is a huge net importer of prime cuts of beef and a net exporter of "everything else". The same is true for lamb. We essentiallu operate a value trade deficit with the EU because we don't eat offal and non prime cuts. We're replacing one source of imports with another source and possibly gaining the ability re-export Australian non-prime cuts to places which have free trade deals with Australia.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
Though the fact that they aren't going to serve prison time suggests that it could be a cover up.
To be expected, supporters of the Government are in chipper if not cocky mood after an 18-point poll lead and you can't blame them for that.
There's no point sugar coating it if you aren't a Government supporter - the vaccination programme has gone very well, there is a clear mood of anticipation and optimism and if I were in New Orleans I would sum up the public mood as "Laissez les bon temps rouler".
A summer of "fun" and "parties" await with hugging in extremis and so on and so forth. Life will once again be for living and many will they have a lot of living with which to catch up and that's also understandable. No one will think about politics and if they do it will be to remember how "Boris saved us all".
The thing with moods is they don't last and those of us not in lockstep support with the Conservative Party or the Prime Minister need to be patient and await the real return of "normal" in the autumn. Somebody has to clear up the mess after the last guest has left and once Government returns to "business as usual", we'll be back to see how the small things become big crises and how the Government responds to the test of managing the day-to-day expectations and the commitments they proffered prior to and during the last election.
Just a polite question but do you really think we will be back to normal by the Autumn
And judging by figures released yesterday, if we are the economy will have taken off and the feel good factor should be extraordinary and likely to continue well into 2022
Inflation, that grim reaper of governments down the ages, looms.
Johnson's conduct since May 06 suggests he is aware of the the huge problems the gargantuan economic gambles of the past year could cause. Countering them is moving swiftly up his agenda. Is that what's driving his newfound courage to face down SAGE? something is.
Or alternatively there is no "newfound courage to face down SAGE" because the roadmap has never been in danger.
SAGE is absolutely huge. Presenting them as some king of SPECTRE with Chris Whitty stroking a white cat somewhere in Whitehall is bonkers.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
EDIT: Actually, I don't know what's going on there!
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
Though the fact that they aren't going to serve prison time suggests that it could be a cover up.
I wasn't being entirely serious before, but yes, you are right
If there was going to be a cover-up, it would look exactly like this. Promise the guards a load of money down the line, but tell them they will get a judicial rap on the knuckles first, for the sake of appearances. But they won't do time
On the balance of probabilities, I reckon Epstein was murdered. But suicide is still possible. And I don't think we will ever know for sure
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
They only list the 569 seats currently held by either Labour or Conservatives.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are to 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
Thanks. I thought I was going crazy. A most unusual way of counting things. Maybe it's organised by aliens with a different idea of numbers.
That was with Blair as leader.. let's not forget 2001 and 2005 WITH BLAIR as leader and PM... .. you think Starmer can do that from the position of LOTO? LMAO.... is more like it.
The question was whether such polling for a government in mid term was unprecedented.
I was pointing out it wasn’t.
So I’m not sure what your post is about.
Your wave hello seemed to me to suggest that a recovery was possible. I just pointed out your figures were with Blair as leader. With Starmer its LMAO...
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
They only list the 569 seats currently held by either Labour or Conservatives.
See also the help page, which says: ... 569 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 82 seats which are not won by either Labour or the Conservatives — these include 48 Scottish seats won by the SNP, 18 Northern Ireland seats plus Liberal Democrats and other parties. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats_help.html
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
I do. It's by far the most credible explanation. He was facing abject shame and the rest of his life in jail. A life defined up to then by doing stuff he could never do again. I'd have topped myself in his position.
The falsifying of records is not evidence to the contrary. The guards should have been checking on him but didn't. Negligence. Negligence leading to a death. So they cover this up. And neither is their dodging jail time evidence of some sinister plot. The offence doesn't necessarily merit jail time.
18-point lead for Conservatives 36-point lead among C2DEs 53-point lead among pensioners 66-point lead among Leavers
Conservative 46% (+1) Labour 28% (-2) Lib Dem 8% (+1) Green 8% (-) Reform 2% (-)
YouGov May 19-20
Any poll that has Labour or Tories lower than 30% has warning bells going off for me. It is nearly impossible that either will get that at a GE, especially if they are lead by somebody that doesn't appear like an extremist.
What a load of rubbish. It’s not going to be a heatwave but it’s going to be dry and will feel warm in the strong late May sun. Just nice late spring weather.
Yes, that's basically what I said.
Why don't you try reading and understanding what someone has said before firing off a response?
You framed it as a bad forecast, that was the tone of your OP.
That was with Blair as leader.. let's not forget 2001 and 2005 WITH BLAIR as leader and PM... .. you think Starmer can do that from the position of LOTO? LMAO.... is more like it.
The question was whether such polling for a government in mid term was unprecedented.
I was pointing out it wasn’t.
So I’m not sure what your post is about.
Your wave hello seemed to me to suggest that a recovery was possible. I just pointed out your figures were with Blair as leader. With Starmer its LMAO...
Unless something strange happened that I have forgotten, or unless you are a raging Corbynista who thinks Blair was just a Tory, those figures are with Hague as leader.
Indeed, it is an unhappy precedent for Labour. It took the Tories 15 years to recover from that.
But the point - again - is that it shows such polling leads are not unprecedented for a mid-term government. Which is what Contrarian was claiming. Because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. That’s what the ‘waves hello’ was about.
I’ve got a feeling Macmillan had similar leads in early 1961 as well, although I don’t have the figures to hand. @justin124 would be the person to ask. Now that would be a much happier precedent for Labour, as they did still win the next election.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
Given what we are starting to discover about Bill Gates relationship with him, lets just say I am sure there are lots of very rich and powerful people that aren't unhappy about the fact he isn't about anymore.
18-point lead for Conservatives 36-point lead among C2DEs 53-point lead among pensioners 66-point lead among Leavers
Conservative 46% (+1) Labour 28% (-2) Lib Dem 8% (+1) Green 8% (-) Reform 2% (-)
YouGov May 19-20
No major surprise, the Leave vote is united behind the Tories, the Remain vote split between Labour, the LDs, the Greens and SNP and the government has got a post vaccine bounce
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
The Left "won" GE2019 with 52% of the vote!
On this poll though Labour + the LDs + the Greens + Plaid = 45%, still less than the Tories on 46%.
Only the Scottish vote from the SNP, who are on 5%, would put the left in front (and of course the LDs are not always left as 2010-15 showed)
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
I never made mistakes, that was unpossible.
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
They only list the 569 seats currently held by either Labour or Conservatives.
See also the help page, which says: ... 569 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 82 seats which are not won by either Labour or the Conservatives — these include 48 Scottish seats won by the SNP, 18 Northern Ireland seats plus Liberal Democrats and other parties. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats_help.html
So I was close but no cigar.
Sadly that doesn't work. It lists Nat, LD and Green held seats.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
I never made mistakes, that was unpossible.
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
Were you suggesting the Bulgars were imposing tossers?
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
I do. It's by far the most credible explanation. He was facing abject shame and the rest of his life in jail. A life defined up to then by doing stuff he could never do again. I'd have topped myself in his position.
The falsifying of records is not evidence to the contrary. The guards should have been checking on him but didn't. Negligence. Negligence leading to a death. So they cover this up. And neither is their dodging jail time evidence of some sinister plot. The offence doesn't necessarily merit jail time.
Wake up sheeple.
Maybe. I certainly don't rule out suicide
However, there's just too much stuff like THIS
"Two cameras in front of Epstein's cell also malfunctioned that night.[32] Another camera had footage that was "unusable".[32]"
"The removal of Epstein's body from his cell was a violation of protocol, as the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) mandates that a suicide scene be treated with the "same level of protection as any crime scene in which a death has occurred."[25] Consequently, prison personnel also failed to photograph Epstein's body as it was found.[37]"
Just a bit too far fetched for me. SO many convenient mistakes. But I clearly don't know for sure
It is also highly possible that he reached some deal. "Commit suicide and we will do this this and this, and not this this and this."
Note how the prison deliberately took him OFF suicide watch, even though he had attempted suicide before. They told the guards to look away, they switched the cameras off. He had one night to do it
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
I never made mistakes, that was unpossible.
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
We’re you suggesting the Bulgars were imposing tossers?
Well, there's quite a few historical references in this piece.
I feel I haven't educated PBers like Morris Dancer on history in recent months. This piece will rectify that.
Good job Brittas is going to get soft soap interview with Piers Moron to boost his ratings.
Bloody hell - that is dire for Labour - who would have thought that appearing to hate the working class and your country would hurt eh?
People squawk this trope like parrots but it's tosh. The polls were neck and neck until 4 months ago. What has happened since then to drive this big Con lead, do we think?
Is it that Labour have started to hate the working class and Britain? - Or is it that the government's vaccines have beaten the pandemic before almost any other country in the world?
Answers on a postcard and absolutely no prizes for getting it right.
To be fair I think it is both to be honest
C'mon thinking cap, Big G. We're looking at the change. The Con lead has emerged in the last 4 months. Now I don't accept for one second that Labour "hate the working class and Britain" - it's a Tory trope - but the point is, let's say for the sake of argument that it's true, that Labour do hate the working class and Britain, have they been spewing up an especially big steaming pile of this hatred in the last 4 months? No. So it's not the driver. Could be a sliver in there, I suppose, but surely dwarfed by the vaccines. I think people generally are overstating how much of the Cons relative popularity is down to negative feelings about Labour rather than positive feelings about Johnson and his government.
Lol at the PL negotiating the penalty with the perpetrators.
The penalty should be a £500m per club cost of exiting the league or joining a different one without majority permission to stay in force for the next 20 years. Or pay £100m now.
Ban them all from Europe next season and make them start on -30 points.
That increases the chance they leave the PL sooner or later rather than reduces it.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
I never made mistakes, that was unpossible.
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
We’re you suggesting the Bulgars were imposing tossers?
Well, there's quite a few historical references in this piece. I feel I haven't educated PBers like Morris Dancer on history in recent months. This piece will rectify that.
When Boris Johnson trips himself up on some entirely avoidable disaster, can we call it Keir Starmer’s ‘Divine Wind?’
(Obviously a reference to 1274 and 1281, not to the more modern usage!)
Thank you for your observations and quite possible but I am sure we all hope that we can recover without the worst aspects including inflation going out of control
I'm not expecting inflation to be "out of control" (I'm certainly not talking mid-70s levels) but if you think about it, it's been nearly 30 years since anyone cared about inflation or interest rates.
Culturally, a whole generation (or two) has grown up not worrying about mortgage rates and living to a means where paying the mortgage isn't an issue. Mrs Stodge and I cleared our mortgage debt and hopefully many other homeowners did as well but more recent homeowners won't and servicing the mortgages that now exist may become more of a challenge as and when rates rise.
We also have the housing market which, as more properties are built and come onto the market, may suffer if rates rise and demand is choked off - I don't know.
Inflation is the other issue especially if you have labour shortages as are already being seen in the US and here as well. Full employment is fine for a while but if labour shortages lead to wage-led inflation as workers start being in the position they've not been for decades of being able to command better salaries, that feeds into the general economy.
I was discussing this with someone the other day. very few City people, especially traders, have operated in an inflationary environment. It’s going to be fun (and profitable) watching them learn.
Amongst my friends and family travel is a non issues. We’ve all written off this year because of the risk of things changing once out of the country. I think that’s a common view amongst those with jobs that would be jeopardised by quarantine.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
Yes, if we had PR even on today's Yougov it would be Tories +Reform UK on 48% and Labour +LDs +Greens + SNP on 49% ie neck and neck but we don't so under FPTP the Tories with an 18 point lead over Labour would win a landslide.
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
The Left "won" GE2019 with 52% of the vote!
On this poll though Labour + the LDs + the Greens + Plaid = 45%, still less than the Tories on 46%.
Only the Scottish vote from the SNP, who are on 5%, would put the left in front (and of course the LDs are not always left as 2010-15 showed)
It is interesting that for practical purposes just as in Scotland everyone adds up the LD+C+Lab vote in one column and the SNP+Green vote in the other, in GB everyone adds up C in one column and Lab, LD, Green, Nats in the other.
This is saying something significant: in Scotland, as we know, there is only one issue and two sides. In GB (but slightly different in Scotland) there is only centre right and centre left, which 80% correlate to Brexit and Remain. Since the referendum there is no 'centre centre' - where the LDs operated.
The centre right is unified, the centre left is split. By and large that tells you the result of the next election, as in 1983.
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
He can't count, for example there are two 93s, two 107s, two 109s etc.
He can spell ‘two’ though *innocent face*
Auto correct which had been fixed.
I can’t remember what I blamed for my mistakes before we had autocorrect.
I never made mistakes, that was unpossible.
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
We’re you suggesting the Bulgars were imposing tossers?
Well, there's quite a few historical references in this piece. I feel I haven't educated PBers like Morris Dancer on history in recent months. This piece will rectify that.
When Boris Johnson trips himself up on some entirely avoidable disaster, can we call it Keir Starmer’s ‘Divine Wind?’
(Obviously a reference to 1274 and 1281, not to the more modern usage!)
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
To be expected, supporters of the Government are in chipper if not cocky mood after an 18-point poll lead and you can't blame them for that.
There's no point sugar coating it if you aren't a Government supporter - the vaccination programme has gone very well, there is a clear mood of anticipation and optimism and if I were in New Orleans I would sum up the public mood as "Laissez les bon temps rouler".
A summer of "fun" and "parties" await with hugging in extremis and so on and so forth. Life will once again be for living and many will they have a lot of living with which to catch up and that's also understandable. No one will think about politics and if they do it will be to remember how "Boris saved us all".
The thing with moods is they don't last and those of us not in lockstep support with the Conservative Party or the Prime Minister need to be patient and await the real return of "normal" in the autumn. Somebody has to clear up the mess after the last guest has left and once Government returns to "business as usual", we'll be back to see how the small things become big crises and how the Government responds to the test of managing the day-to-day expectations and the commitments they proffered prior to and during the last election.
Just a polite question but do you really think we will be back to normal by the Autumn
And judging by figures released yesterday, if we are the economy will have taken off and the feel good factor should be extraordinary and likely to continue well into 2022
Inflation, that grim reaper of governments down the ages, looms.
Johnson's conduct since May 06 suggests he is aware of the the huge problems the gargantuan economic gambles of the past year could cause. Countering them is moving swiftly up his agenda. Is that what's driving his newfound courage to face down SAGE? something is.
Or alternatively there is no "newfound courage to face down SAGE" because the roadmap has never been in danger.
SAGE is absolutely huge. Presenting them as some king of SPECTRE with Chris Whitty stroking a white cat somewhere in Whitehall is bonkers.
Indeed. And in any case Mr "let the bodies pile" has a track record in the opposite direction of "caving in to Sage". He has once, twice, thrice erred on the cavalier/robust (according to taste) side.
This all seems fine. Nothing to see here. Head out for lunch
"The Associated Press @AP The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
No opinion on the matter, but, two aren’t remotely incompatible though. Unless you believe failing to regularly monitor a prisoner on suicide watch is murder. In fact, the story actually reinforces the suicide verdict, since it explains the circumstances where it was possible to happen.
It reminds me of the lab leak hypothesis. The coincidences are just too many to ignore.
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
The UFO stories are designed to stop people focusing on the Epstein story…and the Gates divorce
I thought they were all interconnected...I mean would anybody be surprised if Bill Gates turned out to be a little green man in a human costume?
Coffee House @SpecCoffeeHouse 'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
Comments
I was pointing out it wasn’t.
So I’m not sure what your post is about.
In my Industry that appears very much the way things are going.
In discussions with others in the Insurance market I can't think of one person who wants things to reset to the way they were pre covid.
Of course that has implications for other sectors of the economy
But I do not miss the commute at all and would be happy to only go into the office when clients were in
AUS exported $4.3bn to U.K., 2019
UK exports to rise $500m
AUS exports to rise $4bn
U.K. will go from a net exporter to a net importer.
On the thread header, I think it’s very noticeable that Boris has united the right (other than, presumably, dedicated remainers who are now LibDems or non voters). They aren’t all happy, but they are sticking with him for now. Not sure how sustainable that is, but a united right and a divided opposition was the Thatcher trick, and as Labour looks less like a winner I think it’s more likely to haemorrhage votes to the Liberals or Greens (“they won’t win so I might as well vote with my conscience”).
No sign of any prolonged warm weather through the end of the month and into early June. Drier certainly at times but with the wind direction more north and east than south and west, it's not going to be excitingly warm. I do think the Bank Holiday will be reasonable for many especially in the far north and west of Scotland.
There is news of war in a foreign land, and it is coming nearer. On the outskirts of the city, the cannon fire can be heard. Muffled faraway booms
Winter
Well, all three of us in my household currently have stinking colds (almost certainly acquired from my nieces). So I can confirm that viruses are very much spreading again.
Maybe Ireland should leave the EU and join us
The figures are also a little dubious, it is still far cheaper for Australian producers to export to Asia than the UK for example
However until furlough ends and any tax rises and spending cuts start to bite I don't think we should read too much into the current polls, there is a post vaccine feel good factor at the moment boosting the Tories
Johnson is short-sighted and rather stupid really.
But I love the complacency from PB Tories that this is all at the expense of the French and Irish.
Scots and Welsh more like.
Culturally, a whole generation (or two) has grown up not worrying about mortgage rates and living to a means where paying the mortgage isn't an issue. Mrs Stodge and I cleared our mortgage debt and hopefully many other homeowners did as well but more recent homeowners won't and servicing the mortgages that now exist may become more of a challenge as and when rates rise.
We also have the housing market which, as more properties are built and come onto the market, may suffer if rates rise and demand is choked off - I don't know.
Inflation is the other issue especially if you have labour shortages as are already being seen in the US and here as well. Full employment is fine for a while but if labour shortages lead to wage-led inflation as workers start being in the position they've not been for decades of being able to command better salaries, that feeds into the general economy.
General Winter approaches
Why don't you try reading and understanding what someone has said before firing off a response?
Is it that Labour have started to hate the working class and Britain? - Or is it that the government's vaccines have beaten the pandemic before almost any other country in the world?
Answers on a postcard and absolutely no prizes for getting it right.
Blair, as usual, got it right when he said if Labour replaced Corbyn they'd be 20 points behind.
That WAS what he said, right?
Also, where are you getting this idea that the gravity model has been discredited?
"The Associated Press
@AP
The two Bureau of Prisons workers tasked with guarding Jeffrey Epstein the night he killed himself in a New York jail have admitted they falsified records, but they will not serve prison time under a deal with federal prosecutors."
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1395892554827194368?s=20
Is there anyone, literally ANYONE, who thinks that Epstein killed himself?
The Electoral Calculus ordered seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
lists all the England Wales and Scotland seats but numbers them only up to 566. What have I missed is there are 650 seats and under 20 of them are NI ones?
Can anyone explain?
Epstein was murdered
It leaked from the lab
UFOS.... no idea
If there was going to be a cover-up, it would look exactly like this. Promise the guards a load of money down the line, but tell them they will get a judicial rap on the knuckles first, for the sake of appearances. But they won't do time
On the balance of probabilities, I reckon Epstein was murdered. But suicide is still possible. And I don't think we will ever know for sure
18-point lead for Conservatives
36-point lead among C2DEs
53-point lead among pensioners
66-point lead among Leavers
Conservative 46% (+1)
Labour 28% (-2)
Lib Dem 8% (+1)
Green 8% (-)
Reform 2% (-)
YouGov May 19-20
S. Rentool, MIChemE
... 569 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 82 seats which are not won by either Labour or the Conservatives — these include 48 Scottish seats won by the SNP, 18 Northern Ireland seats plus Liberal Democrats and other parties.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats_help.html
So I was close but no cigar.
The falsifying of records is not evidence to the contrary. The guards should have been checking on him but didn't. Negligence. Negligence leading to a death. So they cover this up. And neither is their dodging jail time evidence of some sinister plot. The offence doesn't necessarily merit jail time.
Wake up sheeple.
Indeed, it is an unhappy precedent for Labour. It took the Tories 15 years to recover from that.
But the point - again - is that it shows such polling leads are not unprecedented for a mid-term government. Which is what Contrarian was claiming. Because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. That’s what the ‘waves hello’ was about.
I’ve got a feeling Macmillan had similar leads in early 1961 as well, although I don’t have the figures to hand. @justin124 would be the person to ask. Now that would be a much happier precedent for Labour, as they did still win the next election.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/21/fifty-shades-of-grey-voters-corbyns-punishing-polling-with-older-voters/
It should be remembered that the Tory lead widened even more between that thread being published in February 2017 and April 2017.
At the following elections I make that one hung Parliament, one landslide win and one defeat.
Only the Scottish vote from the SNP, who are on 5%, would put the left in front (and of course the LDs are not always left as 2010-15 showed)
I normally blamed people for distracting me when I was multitasking.
I did spot a rather awesome typo in tomorrow's piece.
This led to the Liberal Democrats get spunked like Basil II facing the Bulgars.
Edit - bloody autocorrect
However, there's just too much stuff like THIS
"Two cameras in front of Epstein's cell also malfunctioned that night.[32] Another camera had footage that was "unusable".[32]"
"The removal of Epstein's body from his cell was a violation of protocol, as the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) mandates that a suicide scene be treated with the "same level of protection as any crime scene in which a death has occurred."[25] Consequently, prison personnel also failed to photograph Epstein's body as it was found.[37]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein
Just a bit too far fetched for me. SO many convenient mistakes. But I clearly don't know for sure
It is also highly possible that he reached some deal. "Commit suicide and we will do this this and this, and not this this and this."
Note how the prison deliberately took him OFF suicide watch, even though he had attempted suicide before. They told the guards to look away, they switched the cameras off. He had one night to do it
So there is a conspiracy, but it wasn't murder?
Who we keep being told is a disaster waiting to happen.
It's almost as if (whisper it) the voters don't agree.....
I feel I haven't educated PBers like Morris Dancer on history in recent months. This piece will rectify that.
The new Mrs Thatcher was the spin on here and elsewhere.
(Obviously a reference to 1274 and 1281, not to the more modern usage!)
This is saying something significant: in Scotland, as we know, there is only one issue and two sides. In GB (but slightly different in Scotland) there is only centre right and centre left, which 80% correlate to Brexit and Remain. Since the referendum there is no 'centre centre' - where the LDs operated.
The centre right is unified, the centre left is split. By and large that tells you the result of the next election, as in 1983.
The time for centre left to act on it is now.
The electorate has realised BJ sucks.
@SpecCoffeeHouse
'One of the biggest errors in the UK’s lockdown response was Imperial College's controversial cliff-edge hypothesis: the idea that measures/advice/anything less than full lockdown makes v little difference
https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1395035264708333568